October 24, 2025 • 9 mins
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Said Joe Lavorne.
Speaker 2 (00:00):
You're joining us right now with the latest on this,
and we appreciate you being here. Maybe break it down
some of the actual effect that people are feeling right
now because of it.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
The CEA House Economic Advisors just and estimated that we
could be losing fifteen billion per week and lost output
because of the shutdown. Clearly, there are a lot of
the essential government service providers of people in the military,
law enforcement that are working without a paycheck, aircraftic controllers,
(00:34):
I mean from a security perspective, you know, you'd want
to get those people paid. But to the extent that
the government can't do its job, it can't do its business,
it will openly hold and throttle back US businesses. And
that's one of the reasons those CEA estimates are a
bit troubling because the longer it gets, you know, we
keep adding to fifteen billion per week, and at some point,
(00:55):
you know, it could become even worse because the system
needs to reopen, it needs to operate. The Democrats are
holding the government shut down as basically hostage, only a
Republican's hostage, and you hope at some point some cooler
heads prevail that a couple more Democrats come over, because,
as you know, the Republicans don't have the sixty votes. A. Historically,
(01:18):
Republicans have always supported clean crs when they were the
minority party, no less than fifteen support of clean crs,
going back before Democrat administrations. Over the last four years,
the Democrats themselves passed something like thirteen clean crs. So
this is politics as usual, but unfortunately it's the worst
sort of politics because it's damaging the economy, damaging confidence
(01:42):
in the US system, if you will. And you know,
I just hope at some point, as I said, that
some of the lunacy on the left moderates in a
way that we can reopen the government and get back
to doing business with US.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Right now, as a counselor to the Secretary of Scout
the sent at the US, Joseph LEIVORNI, so you know,
it's interesting because all of those things that you mentioned,
I can't help it here, and I don't know, maybe
just coincidence, but is that part of the goal here
is to damage the economy.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
It's doing so well.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
We got gas prices at what record, They're down the
lowest in four years right now.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Yeah, basically and they're going to probably break that justin
I mean, it's it's basically you have to go really
go back to Trump one point zero because so much
production is coming online that yes, we're basically we're at
a four year little but it's going lower. That's really
that's a huge tax cut for for Americans. That's huge
(02:38):
tax break for businesses.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Yeah, it's massive.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
We're in the middle of That's just I'm gonna just
pick that out because it's one of the things that
I think is most clear and most obvious for folks.
I've never seen the left they're mad even about that.
They'll complain about people getting more affordable gas prices. It's
insane to me.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Well, I mean, yeah, maybe they want to hurt the
I mean, the president's done so well, uh managing the economy, Yeah,
and the stewardship of Secretary best And has been fantastic
that maybe they just want to It's hard for me
to be this cynical. Maybe that's right. Maybe this is just,
you know, an evil approach to just to kind of
destroy what's good. I don't know. I hope, I hope
(03:22):
that's not the case.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
I'm with you too. I don't want to think that way,
but at the same time, it is why it's it's
odd he said he will meet with the Democrats. Uh.
One condition they've they've got to open The government does
not want to it does not want to negotiate under
(03:44):
your rest That's an obvious and I think pretty clear,
uh position. You don't want to be backed into a corner.
And they could simply just open things up. They're the
ones that have to come through with the votes to
make that happen. And essentially it just give us a
couple of weeks to really get back into negotiating.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
They'd probably get everything they want.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
I don't know, justin maybe, I mean, one thing what
was really important about the one big beautiful bill is
that got uncontrolled spending.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Sure, that's right on a.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
Much healthier glide path. So what we saw as a
deficit this year that was lower than forty one billion
lower than where it was last year, one hundred billion
lower or more actually than what the CBO had predicted
back in January. But more importantly, justin if you look
at the trends since President Trump was able to wrestle
(04:38):
control of this runaway spending frame, the numbers from April
onwards show dramatic improvement, which means if you extrapolate those trends,
you're going to get a much lower deficit next year.
And why does that matter? Well, because interest rates come down,
Housing affordability, which was horrible under the prior four years,
will improve. What for borrowing costs will them down? That
(05:00):
will help lift stock prices. Everybody benefits from those low
rates of statistical houses in order. So why would the Republicans,
having gotten this bill with the president's leadership, a Secretary
pest and stewardship, why in the world would they want
to backtrack on the signature piece of legislation that was
signed on July fourth, to then put the US back
(05:22):
on the bonding sustainable path had been on under the
prior administration. Doesn't make any economic sense. And by the way,
the financial markets would hate that, They would hate if
the US reversed course. Because President Trump has put the
economy on a solid course. That's why that is one
important reason why the stock markets on an all time
record high. Is optimistic that this golden era, this economic
(05:44):
boom which we've seen in the GDP data, will persist,
and it will do it in a way that generates
strong worker wages with low inflation. That was the whole
mark of the first Trump presidency and I will be
even more pronounced in the second Trump administration. But boy,
let's just get the government reopened and we could deal
with some of these other political issues later.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
You know, you kind of touched on some of this,
Joseph Lavornia with us right now, Counselor to the Secretary
of the Treasury. But this tariff WI it's really starting
to become very interesting. Here in Michigan. We saw Stilantis
announce a big thirteen billion dollar investment. Not only are
we seeing lots of folks, you know, getting back to
making things in America again, we're also hearing stories like.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
Hey, you know, truck drivers are making more.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Right now than they have in a long time because
some of these folks illegals aren't driving anymore. So that's
that's actually increasing their pay in a big way. But
this tariff thing, I saw how much money is coming
in from this and you you sort of just touched
on this that how.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Big is that?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Well, we're generating roughly thirty billion per month, so that's
three hundred and sixty billion per year over a ten
year period three point six trillion. But remember, if you
generate three point six trillion in deficit savings, that means
your interest rates are going to be lower, So there's
an additional benefit from lower interest costs. Just to debtish
(07:12):
ranking at about three point three trillion using the cbo
Comregional Budget Office numbers, you save about seven hundred billion
total and lower interest expense because the deficit's lower. So
if you're at three six or even higher than that,
interest savings will be maybe eighty nine hundred maybe a
trillion in savings. So it's a huge number. But what's important, Justin,
(07:34):
is that's not the tariffs that will bring in the
revenues in places like Michigan, which are so important to
the industrial backbone of the US economy. President Trump's policies
are encouraging capital to come into the US capital, to
remain in the US capital, to be used to build factories,
to create American jobs. That's all part of the One Big,
(07:56):
Beautiful Bill, and the Treasury with the IRS is working
to codify and finalize all this rule making, which at
some point John Justin will suffer from the government being
shut down because we need to have that final tally
on what the full expensing of capital equipment looks like.
We need to know exactly on the factory expensing, which
(08:18):
is the first time ever you build a factory in
Michigan you could expense that whole structure year one. That
is hugely positive for creating high paying jobs and getting
the industrial heartland and the US manufacturing base back. And
with the Democrats keeping the government closed, eventually this persists
a lot longer the ability for us to finalize this
(08:40):
bill in time or the details are going to be compromised.
That's just not good for anybody.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
There's a counselor to the Secretary of Treasury there at
of course, the latest conversation on this Atlavornia Nomics Joseph
Lavorgnia if you want to look him up on X
great follow there and always appreciate you calling in to
give us the insight on this stuff behind the scenes.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
You got it. Always a pleasure. God blessed there.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
He has always given us the behind us have given
you like a little bit of an update, uh that
you just won't hear anywhere else, and fascinating conversations
Said Joe Lavorne.
Speaker 2 (00:00):
You're joining us right now with the latest on this,
and we appreciate you being here. Maybe break it down
some of the actual effect that people are feeling right
now because of it.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
The CEA House Economic Advisors just and estimated that we
could be losing fifteen billion per week and lost output
because of the shutdown. Clearly, there are a lot of
the essential government service providers of people in the military,
law enforcement that are working without a paycheck, aircraftic controllers,
(00:34):
I mean from a security perspective, you know, you'd want
to get those people paid. But to the extent that
the government can't do its job, it can't do its business,
it will openly hold and throttle back US businesses. And
that's one of the reasons those CEA estimates are a
bit troubling because the longer it gets, you know, we
keep adding to fifteen billion per week, and at some point,
(00:55):
you know, it could become even worse because the system
needs to reopen, it needs to operate. The Democrats are
holding the government shut down as basically hostage, only a
Republican's hostage, and you hope at some point some cooler
heads prevail that a couple more Democrats come over, because,
as you know, the Republicans don't have the sixty votes. A. Historically,
(01:18):
Republicans have always supported clean crs when they were the
minority party, no less than fifteen support of clean crs,
going back before Democrat administrations. Over the last four years,
the Democrats themselves passed something like thirteen clean crs. So
this is politics as usual, but unfortunately it's the worst
sort of politics because it's damaging the economy, damaging confidence
(01:42):
in the US system, if you will. And you know,
I just hope at some point, as I said, that
some of the lunacy on the left moderates in a
way that we can reopen the government and get back
to doing business with US.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Right now, as a counselor to the Secretary of Scout
the sent at the US, Joseph LEIVORNI, so you know,
it's interesting because all of those things that you mentioned,
I can't help it here, and I don't know, maybe
just coincidence, but is that part of the goal here
is to damage the economy.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
It's doing so well.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
We got gas prices at what record, They're down the
lowest in four years right now.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Yeah, basically and they're going to probably break that justin
I mean, it's it's basically you have to go really
go back to Trump one point zero because so much
production is coming online that yes, we're basically we're at
a four year little but it's going lower. That's really
that's a huge tax cut for for Americans. That's huge
(02:38):
tax break for businesses.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Yeah, it's massive.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
We're in the middle of That's just I'm gonna just
pick that out because it's one of the things that
I think is most clear and most obvious for folks.
I've never seen the left they're mad even about that.
They'll complain about people getting more affordable gas prices. It's
insane to me.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Well, I mean, yeah, maybe they want to hurt the
I mean, the president's done so well, uh managing the economy, Yeah,
and the stewardship of Secretary best And has been fantastic
that maybe they just want to It's hard for me
to be this cynical. Maybe that's right. Maybe this is just,
you know, an evil approach to just to kind of
destroy what's good. I don't know. I hope, I hope
(03:22):
that's not the case.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
I'm with you too. I don't want to think that way,
but at the same time, it is why it's it's
odd he said he will meet with the Democrats. Uh.
One condition they've they've got to open The government does
not want to it does not want to negotiate under
(03:44):
your rest That's an obvious and I think pretty clear,
uh position. You don't want to be backed into a corner.
And they could simply just open things up. They're the
ones that have to come through with the votes to
make that happen. And essentially it just give us a
couple of weeks to really get back into negotiating.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
They'd probably get everything they want.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
I don't know, justin maybe, I mean, one thing what
was really important about the one big beautiful bill is
that got uncontrolled spending.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Sure, that's right on a.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
Much healthier glide path. So what we saw as a
deficit this year that was lower than forty one billion
lower than where it was last year, one hundred billion
lower or more actually than what the CBO had predicted
back in January. But more importantly, justin if you look
at the trends since President Trump was able to wrestle
(04:38):
control of this runaway spending frame, the numbers from April
onwards show dramatic improvement, which means if you extrapolate those trends,
you're going to get a much lower deficit next year.
And why does that matter? Well, because interest rates come down,
Housing affordability, which was horrible under the prior four years,
will improve. What for borrowing costs will them down? That
(05:00):
will help lift stock prices. Everybody benefits from those low
rates of statistical houses in order. So why would the Republicans,
having gotten this bill with the president's leadership, a Secretary
pest and stewardship, why in the world would they want
to backtrack on the signature piece of legislation that was
signed on July fourth, to then put the US back
(05:22):
on the bonding sustainable path had been on under the
prior administration. Doesn't make any economic sense. And by the way,
the financial markets would hate that, They would hate if
the US reversed course. Because President Trump has put the
economy on a solid course. That's why that is one
important reason why the stock markets on an all time
record high. Is optimistic that this golden era, this economic
(05:44):
boom which we've seen in the GDP data, will persist,
and it will do it in a way that generates
strong worker wages with low inflation. That was the whole
mark of the first Trump presidency and I will be
even more pronounced in the second Trump administration. But boy,
let's just get the government reopened and we could deal
with some of these other political issues later.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
You know, you kind of touched on some of this,
Joseph Lavornia with us right now, Counselor to the Secretary
of the Treasury. But this tariff WI it's really starting
to become very interesting. Here in Michigan. We saw Stilantis
announce a big thirteen billion dollar investment. Not only are
we seeing lots of folks, you know, getting back to
making things in America again, we're also hearing stories like.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
Hey, you know, truck drivers are making more.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Right now than they have in a long time because
some of these folks illegals aren't driving anymore. So that's
that's actually increasing their pay in a big way. But
this tariff thing, I saw how much money is coming
in from this and you you sort of just touched
on this that how.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Big is that?
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Well, we're generating roughly thirty billion per month, so that's
three hundred and sixty billion per year over a ten
year period three point six trillion. But remember, if you
generate three point six trillion in deficit savings, that means
your interest rates are going to be lower, So there's
an additional benefit from lower interest costs. Just to debtish
(07:12):
ranking at about three point three trillion using the cbo
Comregional Budget Office numbers, you save about seven hundred billion
total and lower interest expense because the deficit's lower. So
if you're at three six or even higher than that,
interest savings will be maybe eighty nine hundred maybe a
trillion in savings. So it's a huge number. But what's important, Justin,
(07:34):
is that's not the tariffs that will bring in the
revenues in places like Michigan, which are so important to
the industrial backbone of the US economy. President Trump's policies
are encouraging capital to come into the US capital, to
remain in the US capital, to be used to build factories,
to create American jobs. That's all part of the One Big,
(07:56):
Beautiful Bill, and the Treasury with the IRS is working
to codify and finalize all this rule making, which at
some point John Justin will suffer from the government being
shut down because we need to have that final tally
on what the full expensing of capital equipment looks like.
We need to know exactly on the factory expensing, which
(08:18):
is the first time ever you build a factory in
Michigan you could expense that whole structure year one. That
is hugely positive for creating high paying jobs and getting
the industrial heartland and the US manufacturing base back. And
with the Democrats keeping the government closed, eventually this persists
a lot longer the ability for us to finalize this
(08:40):
bill in time or the details are going to be compromised.
That's just not good for anybody.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
There's a counselor to the Secretary of Treasury there at
of course, the latest conversation on this Atlavornia Nomics Joseph
Lavorgnia if you want to look him up on X
great follow there and always appreciate you calling in to
give us the insight on this stuff behind the scenes.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
You got it. Always a pleasure. God blessed there.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
He has always given us the behind us have given
you like a little bit of an update, uh that
you just won't hear anywhere else, and fascinating conversations
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