December 11, 2025 • 10 mins
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Our good friend Dave Gataway and I talked earlier this
week and we talked about this story with the FED
and what they were going to do when it comes
to ray cuts. And now we've got the headline. We
know what the ray cuts look like, Dave, But the
question is what's the story behind this story? Dave said, Yeah,
you know, I think there's more. There's more happening here
(00:22):
than meets the eye. You can read headlines and that's great,
and I've I've read a couple of things. But let's
see if we can dig in and pull the curtain
back a little bit. So we got this, They've taken
the rate down to cut another quarter some I'm hearing
inside the split here nine to three. Some wanted to
cut more, some didn't want to cut it all. There
(00:43):
are a couple of factors there. But what are you
hearing behind the scenes? Stave, Welcome in today. We appreciate
you being here with.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Us, Thanks for having me. And yeah, it's actually pretty
interesting because we hear a nine to three split on
the boating and we think that's rather pretty heavy, like
in favor of it, and nine to three is actually
a very controversial vote when it comes to the Fed.
It's actually the most closest vote they've had since twenty nineteen.
(01:10):
So there's certainly some dissension among the ranks, which is
going to play heavily come April, you know, May, when
Powell's term is done, if he makes it through the
whole thing, which he seems pretty steadfast that he's going to.
But yeah, I guess you know when we wish, I
wish I had a dollar for every time somebody called
me after they cut rates and asked that what's the
rate now? And the truth behind that is usually that
(01:33):
rate has already come into our lending rates at least
three weeks in advance of the Fed's decision, because there's
so much speculation already knowing what the Fed's going to do.
What affects rates after that meeting are the comments that
come out of that, you know, the things Powell says
as far as going forward. So there's been many times
when the Fed announces a quarter rate cut and because
(01:55):
of the comments of Powell, our rates actually went up
as a result of it. So it's it's a pretty
interesting system they have, and so there's several factors going
in now as we look to the future. What are
they going to do? And it's they say they're on
a they're on a holding pattern. And I believe it's
because they have no idea how the tariffs and the
(02:17):
economy are going to work together. Because they said they're
still watching the inflation numbers and they want to see
inflation come down, but they still think that there's some
heavy tariff things that are going to have a one
time hit that are going to cause some maybe some
inflation in the next quarter four months or so.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Yeah, I heard that conversation, uh, yesterday too, And it's interesting.
So when Dave's talking about the comments, wait, what happens
after they did this big He's literally standing there at
the lectern pale and then and you get all these
reporters that are asking lots of different questions. And one
of those questions I did here was was about tariffs.
(02:58):
And one of them happened to be a boy. You
talk about what a question from a reporter and I
guess you'd have to get the crystal ball out for
this one. But she said, well, what if the Supreme
Court rules against the tariffs? What what happened? Then he goes,
you know, you just kind of hear him saying, well,
I don't know. There's a number of things that we'd
have to look at, and who knows, but you, as
(03:20):
you mentioned, these are the comments that are coming after
the fact. Anything else stand out? Obviously, tariffs is a
piece of this. Now the tariffs have been working to
put some deals together for trade. In one way, it's good,
but it also does throw a monkey wrench into the
economy in some places, and businesses have to try and
figure out. They got to get they got to get
(03:42):
fluid to try and figure some of this out. As
president tries to get things back on track, we have
seen things inflation cooling a little bit. Those are those
are good signals. But what else are you seeing? And
what did you hear yesterday when it comes to uh
some of those comments that that we're made and what
should people take away from it?
Speaker 2 (04:03):
The big one that jumped out of me. I think
they were projecting over forty billion that they're going to
purchase in short term T bills. Yes, that does have
an effect on our lending rates. So if that comes,
it looks like that's going to start happening.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Powering through any technical issues, we got it right here,
A good print. They've got away Heartland home mortgage back
with the FED talk and what it means for you,
interest rates and more. We've got them on the phone now,
so we should be good. As far as we know,
the phone is.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Still working working. Good.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Yeah, good, good deal. So, Dave, you were just talking
about some of the most important things about what comes
out of in the FED. And it's not just what
they do with the numbers. That's part of it. When
it comes to mortgage rates, A lot of that's baked
in ahead of time because of the talk about what
they might do or where things might go. You said,
what's even more important to pay attention to a lot
of times is the comments. So the comments that come
after the big announcement, and that's where he's asked questions
(04:51):
feedch here Powell's asked questions yesterday again and of course
what he might say that determines where things might go
in the near future. So a couple of different pieces
of this, and I think in the middle of it,
we we we we we stopped at the part where
the FED is going to be buying forty billion in
US treasuries. What does that indicate and what's that a signal?
(05:14):
Of right now.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yeah, that's a truer measure in what interest rates as
far as we know, the mortgage rates lending rates will
do in the short term, and that when they pump
that money into that, it actually drives those rates down.
And so that was a positive comment I saw, and
that tells me they're still open to cheaper money going forward,
which obviously benefits us as normal, normal people, right, you know,
(05:37):
we're the ones that are using those loans. So yeah,
there were some positive comments there, and you know, the
markets coming out and we're seeing some some decent movement
on that ten year treasury note. That gives us some
hope and having some more rates.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
That's fantastic. Anything else thumbnill sketch of what we learned
yesterday that might be helpful for folks moving forward looking
at where things are are having.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
I think, you know, it's it's hard because somebody said, well,
I don't want to refinance now. I think maybe an
ear from now would be better. It's always worth just
looking at those options and knowing and you know, you
are seeing a site slow down in the in the
housing market too, so homes on the market, how long
they're going to be there? Now that's that's beneficial for
the buyer, right It's like, hey, there's less competition, doesn't
(06:25):
mean it's easier. Right now, it's not certainly not a
buyer's market. I'm not saying that, but it is. It
has slowed down a bit. Homes they're sitting on the
market a little bit longer. And if you're somebody that's
looking at well, if I refinance, I have a ton
of equity, that equity, you know, can give you a
better rate, It can give you some cash out to
work with the payoff high interest bills. And so now
is a great time to do that because those values
(06:46):
still are high, and so just just a lot of
options out there to save money. You're seeing a point
in history when credit cards are at the highest interest
rate of all time. They're also at the highest balance
of all time of what Americans are whole, they can
consumer death.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Yeah. So if I hear what you're saying, and you know,
we did talk the other day when it comes to
these rights and particularly mortgage et cetera, there may be
a point with the available homes on the market, et cetera,
that it actually is more advantageous that you got something
done to day. I mean, that's why everybody is different.
(07:25):
And you mentioned, hey, you should probably reach out if
you have questions to get yourself ready for when it
does it does come our way. We got a couple
of things on the horizon you're looking at that that
are going to impact home prices.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Yeah, yeah, there's a lot. One thing people don't realize
is we're there. There's a little bit of a cliff
if you look at it as far as values for
where we could be looking at those going And that's
just the historical measures. So if you look at a
graph I shared that with you the other day, there's
some interesting data coming out as far as what values
are potentially doing and also the number of delinquencies we
(08:02):
have in the market. You know, that's that's a lot
of what we'll drive down the values drive down interest
rates is if you know, unfortunately, when homes do go
into foreclosure delinquency payments that I believe the statistic is
ten percent of all f AHA loans are in delinquency,
not foreclosure, but late on payments, and so that's a
pretty uh pretty you know, it's a number that jumps
(08:22):
off the page that you don't really see that out
there much, but it's it's a big one.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
What about auto loans.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Yeah, that's another good one. Auto loans are performing terribly
right now and that industry is facing some pretty interesting
challenges believe there. It's a huge number. I don't remember
the percent of auto loans that are that are in delinquency.
But when auto loans start to go when people start
to lose their cars, that's a huge deal because that's
(08:51):
usually the last thing they'll go late on because they
have to get from A to B. So when those
auto loans go behind, it can that's a that's a
really Telly's sign. And so you know, one thing it
tells you is if you have equity in your home,
it can stay you going into some of these financial
disasters because you're struggling with affordability. You can use that
to your advantage, and we've seen many of many of
(09:13):
your listeners do that and put themselves in a better situation.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
I rEFInd adds home equity aligne of credit that can
help you in any number of ways, which you might
want to find out what's best for you. If you
reach out to Heartland Home Mortgage h HM lending dot
com is the website. Dave Galloway and the team, they're
kind of a really a heart of a teacher to
walk you through those they've I've heard you of a
number of stories about how they've helped people, say, thousands
(09:37):
that listen to this program. But the other thing is
also they'll tell you, you know, hey, you may want
to try this, or maybe it's not the right time
for this, let's do this. And they're open with those
with those with those things, and you're not afraid to
point you in the right direction. So we love that
and that's why we trust Dave and the truth. Thank
you so much, Dave for the latest stuff. Dave, we'll
have to have you come back as things continue to
(09:57):
shake up.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Yeah, thanks for having me. If I don't talk to
you guys dinner, have a merry Christmas.
Our good friend Dave Gataway and I talked earlier this
week and we talked about this story with the FED
and what they were going to do when it comes
to ray cuts. And now we've got the headline. We
know what the ray cuts look like, Dave, But the
question is what's the story behind this story? Dave said, Yeah,
you know, I think there's more. There's more happening here
(00:22):
than meets the eye. You can read headlines and that's great,
and I've I've read a couple of things. But let's
see if we can dig in and pull the curtain
back a little bit. So we got this, They've taken
the rate down to cut another quarter some I'm hearing
inside the split here nine to three. Some wanted to
cut more, some didn't want to cut it all. There
(00:43):
are a couple of factors there. But what are you
hearing behind the scenes? Stave, Welcome in today. We appreciate
you being here with.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Us, Thanks for having me. And yeah, it's actually pretty
interesting because we hear a nine to three split on
the boating and we think that's rather pretty heavy, like
in favor of it, and nine to three is actually
a very controversial vote when it comes to the Fed.
It's actually the most closest vote they've had since twenty nineteen.
(01:10):
So there's certainly some dissension among the ranks, which is
going to play heavily come April, you know, May, when
Powell's term is done, if he makes it through the
whole thing, which he seems pretty steadfast that he's going to.
But yeah, I guess you know when we wish, I
wish I had a dollar for every time somebody called
me after they cut rates and asked that what's the
rate now? And the truth behind that is usually that
(01:33):
rate has already come into our lending rates at least
three weeks in advance of the Fed's decision, because there's
so much speculation already knowing what the Fed's going to do.
What affects rates after that meeting are the comments that
come out of that, you know, the things Powell says
as far as going forward. So there's been many times
when the Fed announces a quarter rate cut and because
(01:55):
of the comments of Powell, our rates actually went up
as a result of it. So it's it's a pretty
interesting system they have, and so there's several factors going
in now as we look to the future. What are
they going to do? And it's they say they're on
a they're on a holding pattern. And I believe it's
because they have no idea how the tariffs and the
(02:17):
economy are going to work together. Because they said they're
still watching the inflation numbers and they want to see
inflation come down, but they still think that there's some
heavy tariff things that are going to have a one
time hit that are going to cause some maybe some
inflation in the next quarter four months or so.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Yeah, I heard that conversation, uh, yesterday too, And it's interesting.
So when Dave's talking about the comments, wait, what happens
after they did this big He's literally standing there at
the lectern pale and then and you get all these
reporters that are asking lots of different questions. And one
of those questions I did here was was about tariffs.
(02:58):
And one of them happened to be a boy. You
talk about what a question from a reporter and I
guess you'd have to get the crystal ball out for
this one. But she said, well, what if the Supreme
Court rules against the tariffs? What what happened? Then he goes,
you know, you just kind of hear him saying, well,
I don't know. There's a number of things that we'd
have to look at, and who knows, but you, as
(03:20):
you mentioned, these are the comments that are coming after
the fact. Anything else stand out? Obviously, tariffs is a
piece of this. Now the tariffs have been working to
put some deals together for trade. In one way, it's good,
but it also does throw a monkey wrench into the
economy in some places, and businesses have to try and
figure out. They got to get they got to get
(03:42):
fluid to try and figure some of this out. As
president tries to get things back on track, we have
seen things inflation cooling a little bit. Those are those
are good signals. But what else are you seeing? And
what did you hear yesterday when it comes to uh
some of those comments that that we're made and what
should people take away from it?
Speaker 2 (04:03):
The big one that jumped out of me. I think
they were projecting over forty billion that they're going to
purchase in short term T bills. Yes, that does have
an effect on our lending rates. So if that comes,
it looks like that's going to start happening.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Powering through any technical issues, we got it right here,
A good print. They've got away Heartland home mortgage back
with the FED talk and what it means for you,
interest rates and more. We've got them on the phone now,
so we should be good. As far as we know,
the phone is.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Still working working. Good.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
Yeah, good, good deal. So, Dave, you were just talking
about some of the most important things about what comes
out of in the FED. And it's not just what
they do with the numbers. That's part of it. When
it comes to mortgage rates, A lot of that's baked
in ahead of time because of the talk about what
they might do or where things might go. You said,
what's even more important to pay attention to a lot
of times is the comments. So the comments that come
after the big announcement, and that's where he's asked questions
(04:51):
feedch here Powell's asked questions yesterday again and of course
what he might say that determines where things might go
in the near future. So a couple of different pieces
of this, and I think in the middle of it,
we we we we we stopped at the part where
the FED is going to be buying forty billion in
US treasuries. What does that indicate and what's that a signal?
(05:14):
Of right now.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yeah, that's a truer measure in what interest rates as
far as we know, the mortgage rates lending rates will
do in the short term, and that when they pump
that money into that, it actually drives those rates down.
And so that was a positive comment I saw, and
that tells me they're still open to cheaper money going forward,
which obviously benefits us as normal, normal people, right, you know,
(05:37):
we're the ones that are using those loans. So yeah,
there were some positive comments there, and you know, the
markets coming out and we're seeing some some decent movement
on that ten year treasury note. That gives us some
hope and having some more rates.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
That's fantastic. Anything else thumbnill sketch of what we learned
yesterday that might be helpful for folks moving forward looking
at where things are are having.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
I think, you know, it's it's hard because somebody said, well,
I don't want to refinance now. I think maybe an
ear from now would be better. It's always worth just
looking at those options and knowing and you know, you
are seeing a site slow down in the in the
housing market too, so homes on the market, how long
they're going to be there? Now that's that's beneficial for
the buyer, right It's like, hey, there's less competition, doesn't
(06:25):
mean it's easier. Right now, it's not certainly not a
buyer's market. I'm not saying that, but it is. It
has slowed down a bit. Homes they're sitting on the
market a little bit longer. And if you're somebody that's
looking at well, if I refinance, I have a ton
of equity, that equity, you know, can give you a
better rate, It can give you some cash out to
work with the payoff high interest bills. And so now
is a great time to do that because those values
(06:46):
still are high, and so just just a lot of
options out there to save money. You're seeing a point
in history when credit cards are at the highest interest
rate of all time. They're also at the highest balance
of all time of what Americans are whole, they can
consumer death.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Yeah. So if I hear what you're saying, and you know,
we did talk the other day when it comes to
these rights and particularly mortgage et cetera, there may be
a point with the available homes on the market, et cetera,
that it actually is more advantageous that you got something
done to day. I mean, that's why everybody is different.
(07:25):
And you mentioned, hey, you should probably reach out if
you have questions to get yourself ready for when it
does it does come our way. We got a couple
of things on the horizon you're looking at that that
are going to impact home prices.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Yeah, yeah, there's a lot. One thing people don't realize
is we're there. There's a little bit of a cliff
if you look at it as far as values for
where we could be looking at those going And that's
just the historical measures. So if you look at a
graph I shared that with you the other day, there's
some interesting data coming out as far as what values
are potentially doing and also the number of delinquencies we
(08:02):
have in the market. You know, that's that's a lot
of what we'll drive down the values drive down interest
rates is if you know, unfortunately, when homes do go
into foreclosure delinquency payments that I believe the statistic is
ten percent of all f AHA loans are in delinquency,
not foreclosure, but late on payments, and so that's a
pretty uh pretty you know, it's a number that jumps
(08:22):
off the page that you don't really see that out
there much, but it's it's a big one.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
What about auto loans.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Yeah, that's another good one. Auto loans are performing terribly
right now and that industry is facing some pretty interesting
challenges believe there. It's a huge number. I don't remember
the percent of auto loans that are that are in delinquency.
But when auto loans start to go when people start
to lose their cars, that's a huge deal because that's
(08:51):
usually the last thing they'll go late on because they
have to get from A to B. So when those
auto loans go behind, it can that's a that's a
really Telly's sign. And so you know, one thing it
tells you is if you have equity in your home,
it can stay you going into some of these financial
disasters because you're struggling with affordability. You can use that
to your advantage, and we've seen many of many of
(09:13):
your listeners do that and put themselves in a better situation.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
I rEFInd adds home equity aligne of credit that can
help you in any number of ways, which you might
want to find out what's best for you. If you
reach out to Heartland Home Mortgage h HM lending dot
com is the website. Dave Galloway and the team, they're
kind of a really a heart of a teacher to
walk you through those they've I've heard you of a
number of stories about how they've helped people, say, thousands
(09:37):
that listen to this program. But the other thing is
also they'll tell you, you know, hey, you may want
to try this, or maybe it's not the right time
for this, let's do this. And they're open with those
with those with those things, and you're not afraid to
point you in the right direction. So we love that
and that's why we trust Dave and the truth. Thank
you so much, Dave for the latest stuff. Dave, we'll
have to have you come back as things continue to
(09:57):
shake up.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Yeah, thanks for having me. If I don't talk to
you guys dinner, have a merry Christmas.
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