02 19 25 POLITICO reporter Jack Detsch on the Russia and Ukraine peace negotiations

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
It is Colorado's Morning News, Marty Lenz, Gina Gandak, Good
morning top. US and Russian officials had their most extensive
high level engagement since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine almost
three years ago, meeting for four hours yesterday before President
Donald Trump suggested that Kiev was to blame for the conflict,
Trump showing little patients for Ukraine's objections to being excluded
from the talks in Saudi Arabia.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Today I heard, oh, we weren't invited.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Well, you've been there for three years. You should have
ended it three years. You should have never started it.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
You could have made a deal. Joining us now on
the KWA Common Spirit Health Hotline to talk more about it.
Is Defense reporter for Politico. It's Jack Deutch. Jack, thank
you so much for your time. As always, walk us
through some of the biggest takeaways we've seen with these talks,
and maybe just give a rundown of what we see
when it comes to US Russian relations before during Biden's
era and now in President Trump's era.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
Yeah, I mean it's been a long slide in US
Russian relations, dating all the way back to Iraq War
and beyond, really back when it's the time when, of
course President ben President looked into Foodin's eyes and saw
his soul. Certainly US officials not seeing foot and soul
at this point. Other than, of course, President Trump seems

(01:09):
very closely doing in some of his public comments to
some of the Russian talking points, we've heard about Glynsy
that he's increasingly unpopular, that he's not the choice of
Euskinian's overall, Trump's saying at the press conference yesterday, four
percent of Ukrainian supports Lensky. The public polling numbers we've
seen looked closer to fifty percent and beyond. So it

(01:33):
doesn't seem like the talks off to a major start here,
looks like we'll sort of see potentially some American Russian
rap brochemont. This looks very much like what the Americans
were trying to do under Biden in twenty twenty one
before we saw the full scale invasion of Ukraine. So
this does open the table potentially for arms control thoughts,

(01:56):
for cyber talks, for other sort of co operation that's
been paused potentially, So that's something that Vladimir Putin will
be very happy to see that. Of course, the full
scale invasion of Ukraine is still ongoing, and he seems
to be getting get out of jail free card here
from the United States, even though the European community still

(02:16):
very much on board with the sanctions and helping the Ukrainians.

Speaker 1 (02:19):
Jack even though it doesn't look like yesterday's first round.
Obviously he wasn't a part of that discussion between the
US and Russia. Zelenski. There are meetings, I believe, if
I'm correct, on the side between the US and Ukraine.
Is that trying to mollify the situation or what are
they talking about? Maybe on the side versus directly.

Speaker 3 (02:37):
It seems like they've been positive, but only to a degree.
We've seen, of course, the Americans very interested in the
rare earth minerals that are mostly in Ukraine's east large
stock files of graphite and other minerals. The Trump administration
has floated the idea these could be used to pay
for what the United States has already provided to Ukraine.

(02:58):
The Ukrainians looking at potentially using this to get the
Americans on the hook for more military aid. Of course,
that two point five billion that had already been improved
under Biden from the sixty billion dollar package still running
and still being supplied to the Ukrainians. So that's the
Americans still on the hook for that. So does seem

(03:19):
a little bit more positive, but still major differences between
the United States and the Ukrainians. It's not sort of
the bear hug and the bond amy that we saw
during the Biden administration between Zolinsky and the President.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
Well, Jack, do you think the plans to end the
war will continue without Ukraine's consent? And will Ukraine eventually
just accept the reality that NATAL membership may not be
very realistic for them as well?

Speaker 3 (03:45):
Well, we saw Zelinsky respond yesterday on the factor of
NATO membership very specifically saying, if you can't give me
NATO membership, you're going to give me twenty patriots and
other things. So Dlinsky trying to use the Americans not
supporting NATO membership at this point potentially as another piece
of leverage here in the talks. But yeah, it does

(04:07):
take two to tango, and I don't have the Ukrainians
and the Russians at the table, not to mention potentially
the Europeans. It's difficult to see where these talks go,
and it's likely that we'll continue to see conflict in
the East.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
You reported out that Russia's military suffered five hundred and
thirty thousand casualties in twenty twenty four, and that's according
you said to a NATO official, that's nearly two third
of the Russian troops killed or wounded in Ukraine. Since
twenty twenty two, the casualty count is now eight hundred
and thirty seven thousand for the Russians killed or wounded
nearly three years into the war. We don't ever hear,

(04:41):
at least I have not heard the president or the
administration talk about those numbers. They always talk about the
amount of people being killed by Ukraine. My point I
was going to ask you, is it Russia's knowing. This
is Russia looking for a pass out, a negotiation out
of a situation that they find themselves now is intractable
because they're taking huge losses on the battlefield as well.

Speaker 3 (05:00):
It doesn't seem like it at this point, Marty. We've
seen the Russians spend about seven percent of their GDP
on the military and on the conflict, so they've very
much become a war economy and buying things that you
wouldn't buy in peace time. Things like artillery shells, things
like building defense factories and of course using the support

(05:21):
of the Iranians, the North Koreans, and to a lesser extent,
the Chinese to continue to bolster their war efforts. So
certainly seems like the Russians right now still in the
posture of fighting it for the long haul. It's unclear
what it would take to bring them to negotiating, to
stable or to change their posture at this point.

Speaker 1 (05:43):
Final question you wrote about how NATO where they turn
now that appears that the US is receding a little
bit in the leadership when it comes to Europe and
the issues with Ukraine. What is NATO looking to do
now with at least the US looking like they're going
to be a little more hands off.

Speaker 3 (06:00):
I mean, it's still a major question of who takes
the lead since the Alliance doesn't have another power like
the United States of America, not just with the weapons
and the troops, but you think about all the things
that the United States has uniquely the satellite intelligence, the
long range fires capabilities that you would need to hold
Russia at risk or strike into Russia if you were

(06:23):
in an article five military conflict type of situation, so
difficult situation for the Alliance to figure it out. It
certainly seems like from the conversations in Munich this weekend
it'll be by committee, as the United States has expected
to at least reshuffle its military presence in Europe, if
not change it entirely.

Speaker 2 (06:44):
Defense reporter for Politico, it's Jack Dutch.