Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Colorado's Morning News. Chad Bauer in for Gina today alongside
Marty Lens With the government shutdown delaying the release of
the September jobs report and potentially the release of other
key economic data this month, it puts stability and surety
at risk.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
And joining us on the Kawa Comic Spirit of Health
hotline is senior economic analyst with Bank Rate. It's Mark
Hamrick Mark glad to have back on here on Colorado's
Morning News. I want to start with the BLS, Bureau
of Labor Statistics and the job support first. This may
be a bit easier to navigate than other economic issues
indicators regarding the shutdown, they can I don't want to
see do without it. But this is, if you want
(00:35):
to say, the lester of the few evils right with
the government shut down.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
I'm not exactly sure where you're going with that. I
think the lack of the one of the most important
economic reports of the month creates a problem at a
time when the economy has been seen at an inflection point.
You remember the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month,
a concern about significant downside risks for the job market.
(01:03):
As FED Chairman Jerome Pow'll put it. Let's remember that
there was last report and we gained only twenty two
thousand jobs in August, that we had July's payrolls with
a paltry seventy nine thousand jobs at it in June
was revised with a contraction, and then with the private
sector data that we got last week. ADP, the private
(01:25):
payrolls processor company, told us that their snapshot of the
September job market told us that we had lost thirty
two thousand jobs. So the job market is at risk.
It has been cooling, almost to the point of being
very cold, and so we need to have the insights
on the economy and the job market and had to
(01:46):
go without that, And obviously we don't know how long
it's going to be before we get data. I'd also
note that the collection for this monthly jobs report occurs
around the twelfth of the month. As we speak, it's
October sixth. The work for the following month's release, the
October Jobs report is at risk of being delayed now.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
And Mark, should this shutdown continue for a bit, will
it have any effect on the FED when they're trying
to decide whether to do another interest rate cut?
Speaker 3 (02:17):
The shutdown simply adds a further uncertainty of regarding the
economy and flows the economy with respect to every day,
every week that it continues, and so those are things
the Federal Reserve will be watching very closely. It will
make a decision one way or the other with its
next announcement due on October twenty ninth. It just simply
(02:39):
will be lacking key data depending on how long this goes.
We also have the Consumer Price Index due on October fifteenth,
and the other inflation data do around that time. But
they'll make a decision, you know. The inclination of observers
and even those who were writing down their projections at
the last meeting indicate that the Fed is most likely
(03:01):
to cut interest rates at the end of this month.
But it does raise the risk of a higher risk
of a mistake lacking this gold standard of economic data,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report Mark.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
We've had other government shutdowns, but is this one at
a more inopportune time, Because as you mentioned about being
the uncertainty and kind of the inflection point where we're
at with the economy, it.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Is most inopportune and it's for not just one reason
we talked about the lack of clarity with respect to
the economy. It's also coming at a time when members
of the federal workforce have already been substantially demoralized, and
the administration is threatening to have reductions in force for
reasons that aren't quite clear to me, saying that the
longer that they cannot forge an agreement between Republicans and Democrats,
(03:49):
that therefore they need to essentially wheeld elon musk chainsaw
once again to get rid of more federal workers. The
capability of various agencies have been degraded this year, and
so yes, I would say that there for all kinds
of reasons, this could not have happened at a worse time.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Is there? Is it a misnomer when we think, well,
if we're going to cut cumbervan jobs, that these jobs
will be absorbed by the private sector right away, or
these cuts are always good for the government. How does
the greater economic cycle? How do the markets perceive and
see that with threats like that are furloughs and cuts
in the government, Well, the.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Markets are staring through this to treat it as if
it were adjusted to any other shutdown that ceiling is
not an issue this time because that was dealt in
the budget bill last time around. And so the markets
are staring through this and saying, like so many other
government shutdowns, will get past this. In terms of absorbing
federal workers easily into the private sector, I would say no.
(04:47):
I can tell you somebody who works at my gym
used to be in the foreign service, and now she's
working at a gym, someone who's love people who work
in gyms. But she's much better qualified, as the daughter
of an international diplomat, to be doing that. And when
you live as I do in the Washington, DC area,
you hear stories like that time and time again. So
(05:10):
talking about hundreds of thousands of people just in the
federal government sector alone, no, they will not be easily absorbed.
And so when we look at the job opening data,
the number of job openings per unemployed job seeker is
now about one to one. When job market was red
hot a little over two years ago, there were two
jobs open for every unemployed job seeker. So this is
(05:33):
a reminder to everybody who's listening. Even if you're not
at risk of losing your job, because perhaps you have
a job at the private sector or do something else
that we really do urge people to prioritize emergency savings.
Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck in this country. Our
Bank Great surveys have indicated for years that a little
(05:54):
more than forty percent say that they would pay an
emergency expense of one thousand dollars or more from so
you know, whether it's an interruption and income, whether it's
a sudden expense trip to the emergency room, car repair,
have to replace a furnace. We all would benefit by
having sufficient emergency savings, particularly if we're employed in risk,
(06:16):
interruption and income.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Bank Greats, Mark Hamrick, thanks so much for joining us
today
Colorado's Morning News. Chad Bauer in for Gina today alongside
Marty Lens With the government shutdown delaying the release of
the September jobs report and potentially the release of other
key economic data this month, it puts stability and surety
at risk.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
And joining us on the Kawa Comic Spirit of Health
hotline is senior economic analyst with Bank Rate. It's Mark
Hamrick Mark glad to have back on here on Colorado's
Morning News. I want to start with the BLS, Bureau
of Labor Statistics and the job support first. This may
be a bit easier to navigate than other economic issues
indicators regarding the shutdown, they can I don't want to
see do without it. But this is, if you want
(00:35):
to say, the lester of the few evils right with
the government shut down.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
I'm not exactly sure where you're going with that. I
think the lack of the one of the most important
economic reports of the month creates a problem at a
time when the economy has been seen at an inflection point.
You remember the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month,
a concern about significant downside risks for the job market.
(01:03):
As FED Chairman Jerome Pow'll put it. Let's remember that
there was last report and we gained only twenty two
thousand jobs in August, that we had July's payrolls with
a paltry seventy nine thousand jobs at it in June
was revised with a contraction, and then with the private
sector data that we got last week. ADP, the private
(01:25):
payrolls processor company, told us that their snapshot of the
September job market told us that we had lost thirty
two thousand jobs. So the job market is at risk.
It has been cooling, almost to the point of being
very cold, and so we need to have the insights
on the economy and the job market and had to
(01:46):
go without that, And obviously we don't know how long
it's going to be before we get data. I'd also
note that the collection for this monthly jobs report occurs
around the twelfth of the month. As we speak, it's
October sixth. The work for the following month's release, the
October Jobs report is at risk of being delayed now.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
And Mark, should this shutdown continue for a bit, will
it have any effect on the FED when they're trying
to decide whether to do another interest rate cut?
Speaker 3 (02:17):
The shutdown simply adds a further uncertainty of regarding the
economy and flows the economy with respect to every day,
every week that it continues, and so those are things
the Federal Reserve will be watching very closely. It will
make a decision one way or the other with its
next announcement due on October twenty ninth. It just simply
(02:39):
will be lacking key data depending on how long this goes.
We also have the Consumer Price Index due on October fifteenth,
and the other inflation data do around that time. But
they'll make a decision, you know. The inclination of observers
and even those who were writing down their projections at
the last meeting indicate that the Fed is most likely
(03:01):
to cut interest rates at the end of this month.
But it does raise the risk of a higher risk
of a mistake lacking this gold standard of economic data,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report Mark.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
We've had other government shutdowns, but is this one at
a more inopportune time, Because as you mentioned about being
the uncertainty and kind of the inflection point where we're
at with the economy, it.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Is most inopportune and it's for not just one reason
we talked about the lack of clarity with respect to
the economy. It's also coming at a time when members
of the federal workforce have already been substantially demoralized, and
the administration is threatening to have reductions in force for
reasons that aren't quite clear to me, saying that the
longer that they cannot forge an agreement between Republicans and Democrats,
(03:49):
that therefore they need to essentially wheeld elon musk chainsaw
once again to get rid of more federal workers. The
capability of various agencies have been degraded this year, and
so yes, I would say that there for all kinds
of reasons, this could not have happened at a worse time.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Is there? Is it a misnomer when we think, well,
if we're going to cut cumbervan jobs, that these jobs
will be absorbed by the private sector right away, or
these cuts are always good for the government. How does
the greater economic cycle? How do the markets perceive and
see that with threats like that are furloughs and cuts
in the government, Well, the.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Markets are staring through this to treat it as if
it were adjusted to any other shutdown that ceiling is
not an issue this time because that was dealt in
the budget bill last time around. And so the markets
are staring through this and saying, like so many other
government shutdowns, will get past this. In terms of absorbing
federal workers easily into the private sector, I would say no.
(04:47):
I can tell you somebody who works at my gym
used to be in the foreign service, and now she's
working at a gym, someone who's love people who work
in gyms. But she's much better qualified, as the daughter
of an international diplomat, to be doing that. And when
you live as I do in the Washington, DC area,
you hear stories like that time and time again. So
(05:10):
talking about hundreds of thousands of people just in the
federal government sector alone, no, they will not be easily absorbed.
And so when we look at the job opening data,
the number of job openings per unemployed job seeker is
now about one to one. When job market was red
hot a little over two years ago, there were two
jobs open for every unemployed job seeker. So this is
(05:33):
a reminder to everybody who's listening. Even if you're not
at risk of losing your job, because perhaps you have
a job at the private sector or do something else
that we really do urge people to prioritize emergency savings.
Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck in this country. Our
Bank Great surveys have indicated for years that a little
(05:54):
more than forty percent say that they would pay an
emergency expense of one thousand dollars or more from so
you know, whether it's an interruption and income, whether it's
a sudden expense trip to the emergency room, car repair,
have to replace a furnace. We all would benefit by
having sufficient emergency savings, particularly if we're employed in risk,
(06:16):
interruption and income.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Bank Greats, Mark Hamrick, thanks so much for joining us
today
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