May 2, 2025 • 11 mins
Johnny Avelo from Draft Kings joined Todd Walker on the Friday edition of "Lima's Morning News" to preview tomorrow's Run for the Roses.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Time to preview the Kentucky Derby coming up tomorrow in Louisville.
And here to do that is, of course, somebody that
knows a lot more than me, Johnny Avello with DraftKings.
He's forty years plus covering racing and he is with
us this morning. Johnny starting to get anxious, I would
imagine for the festivities, right, it.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Is, And you know that's the great part of that
is that you can't race on Friday too, which is
the Yolks, and so that's kind of a prelude leading
into the Derby. Yeah, but it is an exciting time.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Yeah, A lot of people don't realize there's a whole
day of racing with the Kentucky Oaks today and those
are fun and all that, but we want to focus
on the Derby. First of all, when you think about
the weather forecast, of course none of us can be
exactly sure, but is there something significant in the weather
that would affect the horse you might pick, let's start
(00:57):
with that.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, I mean it's gonna be the that's gonna be
the case for anybody who's going to handicap this race.
I mean you go back and you look and and
like you said, we don't know for sure what the
weather's going to be, but it has turned to look
negative as far as a clear day. So when you
look through past performances and other handicapped material, you see
(01:25):
that a lot of these horses have never run on
a floppy track or off track. A couple of American
promises publisher has h so you know that's all you
have to go by is ones that have ox a
cafe coming over from Japan. He has run some off track.
(01:47):
So so what do you do. Do you say, Okay,
I'm gonna chance with horses that have ran on that
type of track and have done okay, but he's done
great on it. Or do I take a horse I
still like who's never run on the off track and
just hope that he has a good day and doesn't
(02:07):
get mud thrown his face because that's some of the
problems that the horse is behind has never had that
thrown her face before, and it kind of alters there.
They're running because they're they say, I'm not going to
put up with it. That's pretty much the brain. So
will will happen? It might, it might not because some
(02:31):
of the horses that they picked never run it before
and they're going to say, Okay, maybe they'll do well
with it.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Johnny Vello, as with us as we preview the Kentucky Derby,
Let's start with the other thing that can really influence
how people picked the post position. The f favorite journalism
comes out of the eight spot, a sandman, sovereignty, or
two of the other highly rated horses. They're out on
the edge close at seventeen eighteen. What do you like
(02:59):
about any of those three spots in particular.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Well, Journalism's aid is his ideal, and so you know,
he can kind of maneuver the horse long as he
gets a clean break out of gate. He can maneuver
his horse to put him in a position where he
wants to be. That's not so much the case some
of the outside posts. Sometimes if you're in the outside post,
(03:24):
like you're a chunk of gold out of nineteen or
sovereignty out of the eighteen, you have to rely on No,
not only do you have to maneuver your horse, have
to rely on who's in the seventeen. In the sixteen spot,
you know seventeen the sandman, he's kind of a closer,
so most likely he would fade back a bit you know,
(03:46):
render judgment who I'm hearing may not even be in
the race. He's got a quarter crack that are evaluating that,
so there's a chance that he'll be out. And what that does.
That opens the door for named by Isa, who's a
really good horse with only four starts, but you'd have
to start out of the twenty. As far as some
(04:07):
of the horses who drew some terrible posts, that would
be Citizen Bull and Equos who threw the one in
the two and they're both front runners, so it doesn't
afford them the ability to add that maneuverability. Like we
talked about, they have to go. They just have to
take the horse out of spots and go right out
and try to get to the lead and see how
(04:27):
long it can last.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Johnny Vello from DraftKings with us there a long time
horse racing vet forty plus years covering horse racing and
this event to Kentucky Derby in particular. As far as journalism,
I've seen some people very much in the no say
that that is easily the best horse in the field,
(04:50):
and they don't think it's particularly close. So what's your
opinion as far as that goes?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Oh? Well, you know, sometimes this horse doesn't always win.
Is he the best horse? I mean, he's coming into
the race with some pretty good numbers. It's one of
his last three, but there's also other horses coming in
with good numbers. Sovereignty of the eighteen, He's coming in
with some good numbers. Rodriguez's last race was very good.
(05:18):
He won the Memorial. It's a Beaufort trained horse coming
out of the four. He likes to go to the front.
So there's you know, there's in this type of race
with twenty horses, it's hard to say that this horse
is a sure thing. A sure thing almost a sure
thing would be a horse that with great potential has
(05:42):
shown that he's head and shoulders above every other horse,
and he's in a four or five horse field. That's
almost a sure thing. But that's not as sure that either.
So the point I'm getting at is when you're in
a twenty horse field, there's just so much trouble that
could happen during the course of the race. I mean,
you don't have to make good horse pumped, you you
get pinned on the rail. There's just just too many
(06:05):
factors that make it. You know, So is he a
very good horse. He's a very good horse. Yes, he's
just got to have a good day and he's got
to have good luck, you.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Know, Johnny, speaking of some of those variables you were
just referring to. Some of that stuff is overcome by
the horse naturally, but some of that is either overcome
or avoided or mitigated by the skill of the jockey. Right.
Who do you like who's a jockey that could make
a difference.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Here, Well, you know, on journalism, that's Rispoli. I think
he said risk Bolie the way. He's a Talian. He
runs mostly in southern California, and he's very good. He's
very good on turf. The last race at the Sanity
of There, he got the horse kind of pinned in
a little bit, and luckily we were only five horses
(06:57):
in the race and he was able to get out
of that spot. There's a lot of good jockeys in
this race. So there's Jose Ortiz on stan Man the seventeen.
There's Derby Jack, the winner last year. Brian Hernandez who
was on Mystic Band he's on Burnham Square is also
a contender. And then there's also and there's Mike Smith
(07:19):
who's been in twenty eight derbies and he's won one.
And Joselle Rosario he's on Rodriguez, And there's Jose Joel
Rosario on Tantastic, he's been in thirteen derbies and he's
one one. But then there's other jockeys who have never
been in e roun the dirt before. There's Nick Juarez,
(07:40):
he's on American Promise, he's never running the Derby before.
And I think there's a total of five. There's Ramo,
Joseph Rameston flying Mofawk, he's never run the Derby before.
There's Moreo and Luxter Cafe coming over from Japan, he's
never run the Derby before, and then Machad on Final
(08:02):
Gambit and Juan Vargas on Cold Battle, none ever in
the Derby. So my point I'm getting to is there's
some great jockeys in here, and one of the greatest
has ever won. One of the greatest we have right now,
Jose Hortiz. He's he's been the Derby eight time and
he hasn't won one yet. So it's you know, when
(08:24):
you talk about this race, it's a tough race to win,
and you know who you don't win a lot of them.
Johnny Velasquez is one three and so, but most of
the guys have one win and many tries, so it's
a difficult race to win this point, I'm trying to
make yes.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
And Jose Ortiz will be on Sandman as we visit
with Johnny Avello with Draft Kings talking about the Kentucky Derby.
Give us a couple of long shots you think could
at least figure in the mix here that people might
want to keep an eye on or put some money
on for fun.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Okay, I'm a lower end of the long shots. When
we're talking about ten to twelve to one. Rodriguez could
go out and steal the race if somebody challenged him.
So he's coming in number four that strained by Bob
Baffert Burnham Square. I like the way he's coming into
the race. His last two races very good, so I
think he's overse that you can move up a little
(09:17):
and make a little noise you can use. East Avenue
was a promising horse at the start of his career
last year, but then things went bad that you never
could figure out why they went bad. But then his
last race and the Blue Gass was much better. So
if he can return back to that. He could be
(09:38):
a little dangerous. Grande's a horse with the only three
starts and they're all very good, so he's lightly raced
and not a lot of experience. That would be the
same with Baeza if he get in, which I think
he will end up getting in. And then if you
want to go a little bit deeper, you look at
(09:58):
chunk of Gold and at the ninth. I know some
people that I've talked to like him a little bit
thirty to one, maybe thrown him in in some of
those tries and supers. Then Sovereignty, don't forget about him.
Outside he won't be a long shot, but he'll probably
be in the five to six of one range.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
All right, Johnny, final thing, I'll ask you to pick
your winner, assuming that the weather isn't terrible, it's decent
enough and it doesn't really skew everything. Who would you
pick to win?
Speaker 2 (10:29):
Well, you know, if you said to me, I'm going
to give you fifty thousand bucks and you have to
pick a horse to put put that on, I would
pick Journalism because not because he's the favorite, just because
he's coming in the race. He's one, right, he's one
four in a row. I think he's coming into the
race right. He's just gonna need that so called racing
(10:52):
luck not to get in any trouble.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
That's Johnny Avello was draft Kings talking about the Kentucky Derby. Johnny,
hope all your bets come back, and we appreciate you
taking time for us.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
You're welcome help today
Time to preview the Kentucky Derby coming up tomorrow in Louisville.
And here to do that is, of course, somebody that
knows a lot more than me, Johnny Avello with DraftKings.
He's forty years plus covering racing and he is with
us this morning. Johnny starting to get anxious, I would
imagine for the festivities, right, it.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Is, And you know that's the great part of that
is that you can't race on Friday too, which is
the Yolks, and so that's kind of a prelude leading
into the Derby. Yeah, but it is an exciting time.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Yeah, A lot of people don't realize there's a whole
day of racing with the Kentucky Oaks today and those
are fun and all that, but we want to focus
on the Derby. First of all, when you think about
the weather forecast, of course none of us can be
exactly sure, but is there something significant in the weather
that would affect the horse you might pick, let's start
(00:57):
with that.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, I mean it's gonna be the that's gonna be
the case for anybody who's going to handicap this race.
I mean you go back and you look and and
like you said, we don't know for sure what the
weather's going to be, but it has turned to look
negative as far as a clear day. So when you
look through past performances and other handicapped material, you see
(01:25):
that a lot of these horses have never run on
a floppy track or off track. A couple of American
promises publisher has h so you know that's all you
have to go by is ones that have ox a
cafe coming over from Japan. He has run some off track.
(01:47):
So so what do you do. Do you say, Okay,
I'm gonna chance with horses that have ran on that
type of track and have done okay, but he's done
great on it. Or do I take a horse I
still like who's never run on the off track and
just hope that he has a good day and doesn't
(02:07):
get mud thrown his face because that's some of the
problems that the horse is behind has never had that
thrown her face before, and it kind of alters there.
They're running because they're they say, I'm not going to
put up with it. That's pretty much the brain. So
will will happen? It might, it might not because some
(02:31):
of the horses that they picked never run it before
and they're going to say, Okay, maybe they'll do well
with it.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Johnny Vello, as with us as we preview the Kentucky Derby,
Let's start with the other thing that can really influence
how people picked the post position. The f favorite journalism
comes out of the eight spot, a sandman, sovereignty, or
two of the other highly rated horses. They're out on
the edge close at seventeen eighteen. What do you like
(02:59):
about any of those three spots in particular.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Well, Journalism's aid is his ideal, and so you know,
he can kind of maneuver the horse long as he
gets a clean break out of gate. He can maneuver
his horse to put him in a position where he
wants to be. That's not so much the case some
of the outside posts. Sometimes if you're in the outside post,
(03:24):
like you're a chunk of gold out of nineteen or
sovereignty out of the eighteen, you have to rely on No,
not only do you have to maneuver your horse, have
to rely on who's in the seventeen. In the sixteen spot,
you know seventeen the sandman, he's kind of a closer,
so most likely he would fade back a bit you know,
(03:46):
render judgment who I'm hearing may not even be in
the race. He's got a quarter crack that are evaluating that,
so there's a chance that he'll be out. And what that does.
That opens the door for named by Isa, who's a
really good horse with only four starts, but you'd have
to start out of the twenty. As far as some
(04:07):
of the horses who drew some terrible posts, that would
be Citizen Bull and Equos who threw the one in
the two and they're both front runners, so it doesn't
afford them the ability to add that maneuverability. Like we
talked about, they have to go. They just have to
take the horse out of spots and go right out
and try to get to the lead and see how
(04:27):
long it can last.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Johnny Vello from DraftKings with us there a long time
horse racing vet forty plus years covering horse racing and
this event to Kentucky Derby in particular. As far as journalism,
I've seen some people very much in the no say
that that is easily the best horse in the field,
(04:50):
and they don't think it's particularly close. So what's your
opinion as far as that goes?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Oh? Well, you know, sometimes this horse doesn't always win.
Is he the best horse? I mean, he's coming into
the race with some pretty good numbers. It's one of
his last three, but there's also other horses coming in
with good numbers. Sovereignty of the eighteen, He's coming in
with some good numbers. Rodriguez's last race was very good.
(05:18):
He won the Memorial. It's a Beaufort trained horse coming
out of the four. He likes to go to the front.
So there's you know, there's in this type of race
with twenty horses, it's hard to say that this horse
is a sure thing. A sure thing almost a sure
thing would be a horse that with great potential has
(05:42):
shown that he's head and shoulders above every other horse,
and he's in a four or five horse field. That's
almost a sure thing. But that's not as sure that either.
So the point I'm getting at is when you're in
a twenty horse field, there's just so much trouble that
could happen during the course of the race. I mean,
you don't have to make good horse pumped, you you
get pinned on the rail. There's just just too many
(06:05):
factors that make it. You know, So is he a
very good horse. He's a very good horse. Yes, he's
just got to have a good day and he's got
to have good luck, you.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Know, Johnny, speaking of some of those variables you were
just referring to. Some of that stuff is overcome by
the horse naturally, but some of that is either overcome
or avoided or mitigated by the skill of the jockey. Right.
Who do you like who's a jockey that could make
a difference.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
Here, Well, you know, on journalism, that's Rispoli. I think
he said risk Bolie the way. He's a Talian. He
runs mostly in southern California, and he's very good. He's
very good on turf. The last race at the Sanity
of There, he got the horse kind of pinned in
a little bit, and luckily we were only five horses
(06:57):
in the race and he was able to get out
of that spot. There's a lot of good jockeys in
this race. So there's Jose Ortiz on stan Man the seventeen.
There's Derby Jack, the winner last year. Brian Hernandez who
was on Mystic Band he's on Burnham Square is also
a contender. And then there's also and there's Mike Smith
(07:19):
who's been in twenty eight derbies and he's won one.
And Joselle Rosario he's on Rodriguez, And there's Jose Joel
Rosario on Tantastic, he's been in thirteen derbies and he's
one one. But then there's other jockeys who have never
been in e roun the dirt before. There's Nick Juarez,
(07:40):
he's on American Promise, he's never running the Derby before.
And I think there's a total of five. There's Ramo,
Joseph Rameston flying Mofawk, he's never run the Derby before.
There's Moreo and Luxter Cafe coming over from Japan, he's
never run the Derby before, and then Machad on Final
(08:02):
Gambit and Juan Vargas on Cold Battle, none ever in
the Derby. So my point I'm getting to is there's
some great jockeys in here, and one of the greatest
has ever won. One of the greatest we have right now,
Jose Hortiz. He's he's been the Derby eight time and
he hasn't won one yet. So it's you know, when
(08:24):
you talk about this race, it's a tough race to win,
and you know who you don't win a lot of them.
Johnny Velasquez is one three and so, but most of
the guys have one win and many tries, so it's
a difficult race to win this point, I'm trying to
make yes.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
And Jose Ortiz will be on Sandman as we visit
with Johnny Avello with Draft Kings talking about the Kentucky Derby.
Give us a couple of long shots you think could
at least figure in the mix here that people might
want to keep an eye on or put some money
on for fun.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Okay, I'm a lower end of the long shots. When
we're talking about ten to twelve to one. Rodriguez could
go out and steal the race if somebody challenged him.
So he's coming in number four that strained by Bob
Baffert Burnham Square. I like the way he's coming into
the race. His last two races very good, so I
think he's overse that you can move up a little
(09:17):
and make a little noise you can use. East Avenue
was a promising horse at the start of his career
last year, but then things went bad that you never
could figure out why they went bad. But then his
last race and the Blue Gass was much better. So
if he can return back to that. He could be
(09:38):
a little dangerous. Grande's a horse with the only three
starts and they're all very good, so he's lightly raced
and not a lot of experience. That would be the
same with Baeza if he get in, which I think
he will end up getting in. And then if you
want to go a little bit deeper, you look at
(09:58):
chunk of Gold and at the ninth. I know some
people that I've talked to like him a little bit
thirty to one, maybe thrown him in in some of
those tries and supers. Then Sovereignty, don't forget about him.
Outside he won't be a long shot, but he'll probably
be in the five to six of one range.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
All right, Johnny, final thing, I'll ask you to pick
your winner, assuming that the weather isn't terrible, it's decent
enough and it doesn't really skew everything. Who would you
pick to win?
Speaker 2 (10:29):
Well, you know, if you said to me, I'm going
to give you fifty thousand bucks and you have to
pick a horse to put put that on, I would
pick Journalism because not because he's the favorite, just because
he's coming in the race. He's one, right, he's one
four in a row. I think he's coming into the
race right. He's just gonna need that so called racing
(10:52):
luck not to get in any trouble.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
That's Johnny Avello was draft Kings talking about the Kentucky Derby. Johnny,
hope all your bets come back, and we appreciate you
taking time for us.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
You're welcome help today
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