Ben Cohen joins Mendte in the Morning to talk about the state of the Iranian nuclear program following attacks by the United States.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, there is a fascinating piece in the New York
Post that I suggest you read. It's called us delt
Iran's Nuke's a major blow. But here's why the cheers
may be premature. And it was a balanced, well thought
out article about the nuclear program and how we should
be careful of taking a big victory lap right now
(00:23):
there may be more to be done. The author was
Ben Cohen, senior analyst and Rapid Response director at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ben, thanks so much for
joining us this morning.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Larry, great to be with you talk.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
About your concerns.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, look, you mentioned just now that it's too premature
to be doing a victory lap. I very much hope
that we will be doing a victory lap and despite
the but I think the issue is this. You know,
these were very audacious and necessary strikes that occurred on
Saturday night, and if you listen to what the head
(01:04):
of the International Atomic Energy Agency was saying this morning,
there does seem to be good reason to believe that
the four Dough enrichment facility, the underground, the underground facility
that's buried beneath the mountain, that that was badly damaged
but there are still some, as you say, some outstanding
questions here. I think one of them relates to the
(01:29):
enriched uranium that Iran already has. We know that at
least two sites at Fourdell and at Isfahan, which are
sort of in the central western part of Iran, both
are nuclear facilities. There's several hundred kilograms of sixty percent
(01:49):
enriched uranium at Isfahan. That's almost nuclear weapons grade. It's
a short skip and jump to get that up to
weapons grade uranium. And then also at fordw there was
talk today that there were trucks seen at the facility
a few minutes before the strikes began on Saturday night,
(02:10):
and the theory is that they may have been moving
nuclear material out. So that's a really big worry. And
then you have the sort of broader geopolitical consideration. Iran
has all these proxies around the Middle East, in Gaza,
in Lebanon, in Yemen. We have forty thousand troops the
US in the Middle East, so all these are targets
(02:31):
for retaliation right now.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
No, these are major concerns that you bring up. Do
you have any reason to believe before the damage assessment
that we didn't at least badly downgrade their nuclear weapons capabilities.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Look, I think there is good reason to believe that
that has happened. I saw, in fact, even before the
strikes on Saturday night, the Israeli Foreign Minister was saying
that he, by is estimation, they had they had set
the Uranian nuclear program back by one two three years
I think was his estimate. And that was before the
(03:09):
US strikes, but after the Israelis had engaged in nine
days of extensive but targeted strikes. Yeah, I think an
enormous amount of damage has been accumulated in human and
physical terms to the nuclear program and to the Uranian military.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
But we would be naive, are you saying to think
it was eliminated.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
I don't know that we would be naive in saying that.
I think we might be overly optimistic in saying that
there's still As I said, there's still a lot of
a lot of material where we simply don't know where
they may have moved it. To the IAEA, the International
Atomic Energy Agency, is theoretically responsible for monitoring that. But
(03:52):
they're saying this morning, Look, they're not telling us what
they've done with this, and we have no idea where
this was shipped to, if it was shipped safely. I
think the other point, of course is that is that
they still do have, you know, hundreds of ballistic missiles.
They've been targeting those at Israel this morning. But they may,
in particularly if the regime feels that this is the
(04:14):
end and it's going to collapse, they may decide, as
I said in that New York Post piece, to go
out in a in a blaze of glory with martyrdom
and attack lots of wider targets as well.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Right, So you believe that where would the attacks be
in this country or military assets?
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I think I think there's a there's a range of targets.
I think foremost are those military assets that we have
in the Middle East, the basis that we have in
Syria and Iraq, the basis that we have potentially even
in the Gulf in Katar, which you know, Katar is
a supporter of Hamas, it's been aligned with with Iran,
but it's still home to to scent on, the main
(04:58):
US forward base in the Middle East. It's also home
to the Al U Daid air Base. So there's a
bunch of targets in the region that the Iranians could
target further out. You know, there is the use of
proxies in Lebanon. His Bolla has been very quiet so
far because they took a pasting from the Israelis last year,
(05:20):
but they're not out of the fight. Hamas is still
present in Gaza. You have the hooties in rebels in Yemen.
They've already for most of last year shut down the
traffic through the Red Sea towards the Sewerz Canal. That
has caused unbelievable fiscal pain for the global shipping industry.
(05:41):
You know, something like twenty percent of the world's oil
is transited through there, So yeah, those are targets. And
then further even further afield. You know, synagogues, temples, schools, churches,
even in Europe, North America and elsewhere, those are also
in the targets. And Iran has even over the last
forty to fifty years since this revolution there took place,
(06:04):
that it's willing to attack soft targets like that.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Do you buy into the argument that there could be
sleeper cells in this country that came across the southern
border in the last four years, Yes, I do.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
I do buy that because I think We've already had
evidence of that. You know, We've had an Iranian assassination
plot against President Trump himself. We've also had attempts to
kill to assassinate John Bolton, who was former UN ambassador
for the US and an advisor to Trump. Massi al Najad,
who is a very well known Iranian dissident based in
(06:39):
New York. All these people have been targeted by the Iranians.
And if you look at Europe, in Sweden, for example,
Iran has been using criminal gangs to attack dissidents in Sweden.
In London, where a lot of the Iranian opposition media
is based, you actually had last year an incident where
an Iranian opposition journal was stabbed outside his place of work.
(07:03):
So yeah, these sleeper cells exist and can be activated,
and I think as the regene feels more and more pressure,
it may well opt to activate them.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Should that be our biggest concern?
Speaker 2 (07:18):
I think? Look, I think if you waken up this
morning in any one of the five boroughs, that is
certainly the most immediate concern. How realistic it is, I
really don't want to predict. I mean, that's the problem
with with sleeper cells is very often we don't know
who they are, and we don't know the capabilities they
(07:38):
have once they are activated. So you know, here in
the city, the NYPD has has elevated security around Jewish
community buildings. I think that's a very sensible measure, and
I think people just just just just have to be
vigilant and if you are attending or working at a
particular target that might be attracted tip to the Iranians,
(08:01):
then yet ask what the security measures are and are
there any more security measures being adopted.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
That's great advice. Ben Cohen, Senior analyst and Rapid Response
Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ben would
love to talk to you some more in the weeks
to come, especially when we get these damage assessments.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Absolutely, I'm alright here.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Thank you so much. I appreciate that again. Ben Cohen,
Senior analyst and Rapid Response Director at the Foundation for
Defensive Democracies.
Well, there is a fascinating piece in the New York
Post that I suggest you read. It's called us delt
Iran's Nuke's a major blow. But here's why the cheers
may be premature. And it was a balanced, well thought
out article about the nuclear program and how we should
be careful of taking a big victory lap right now
(00:23):
there may be more to be done. The author was
Ben Cohen, senior analyst and Rapid Response director at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ben, thanks so much for
joining us this morning.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Larry, great to be with you talk.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
About your concerns.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, look, you mentioned just now that it's too premature
to be doing a victory lap. I very much hope
that we will be doing a victory lap and despite
the but I think the issue is this. You know,
these were very audacious and necessary strikes that occurred on
Saturday night, and if you listen to what the head
(01:04):
of the International Atomic Energy Agency was saying this morning,
there does seem to be good reason to believe that
the four Dough enrichment facility, the underground, the underground facility
that's buried beneath the mountain, that that was badly damaged
but there are still some, as you say, some outstanding
questions here. I think one of them relates to the
(01:29):
enriched uranium that Iran already has. We know that at
least two sites at Fourdell and at Isfahan, which are
sort of in the central western part of Iran, both
are nuclear facilities. There's several hundred kilograms of sixty percent
(01:49):
enriched uranium at Isfahan. That's almost nuclear weapons grade. It's
a short skip and jump to get that up to
weapons grade uranium. And then also at fordw there was
talk today that there were trucks seen at the facility
a few minutes before the strikes began on Saturday night,
(02:10):
and the theory is that they may have been moving
nuclear material out. So that's a really big worry. And
then you have the sort of broader geopolitical consideration. Iran
has all these proxies around the Middle East, in Gaza,
in Lebanon, in Yemen. We have forty thousand troops the
US in the Middle East, so all these are targets
(02:31):
for retaliation right now.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
No, these are major concerns that you bring up. Do
you have any reason to believe before the damage assessment
that we didn't at least badly downgrade their nuclear weapons capabilities.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Look, I think there is good reason to believe that
that has happened. I saw, in fact, even before the
strikes on Saturday night, the Israeli Foreign Minister was saying
that he, by is estimation, they had they had set
the Uranian nuclear program back by one two three years
I think was his estimate. And that was before the
(03:09):
US strikes, but after the Israelis had engaged in nine
days of extensive but targeted strikes. Yeah, I think an
enormous amount of damage has been accumulated in human and
physical terms to the nuclear program and to the Uranian military.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
But we would be naive, are you saying to think
it was eliminated.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
I don't know that we would be naive in saying that.
I think we might be overly optimistic in saying that
there's still As I said, there's still a lot of
a lot of material where we simply don't know where
they may have moved it. To the IAEA, the International
Atomic Energy Agency, is theoretically responsible for monitoring that. But
(03:52):
they're saying this morning, Look, they're not telling us what
they've done with this, and we have no idea where
this was shipped to, if it was shipped safely. I
think the other point, of course is that is that
they still do have, you know, hundreds of ballistic missiles.
They've been targeting those at Israel this morning. But they may,
in particularly if the regime feels that this is the
(04:14):
end and it's going to collapse, they may decide, as
I said in that New York Post piece, to go
out in a in a blaze of glory with martyrdom
and attack lots of wider targets as well.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Right, So you believe that where would the attacks be
in this country or military assets?
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I think I think there's a there's a range of targets.
I think foremost are those military assets that we have
in the Middle East, the basis that we have in
Syria and Iraq, the basis that we have potentially even
in the Gulf in Katar, which you know, Katar is
a supporter of Hamas, it's been aligned with with Iran,
but it's still home to to scent on, the main
(04:58):
US forward base in the Middle East. It's also home
to the Al U Daid air Base. So there's a
bunch of targets in the region that the Iranians could
target further out. You know, there is the use of
proxies in Lebanon. His Bolla has been very quiet so
far because they took a pasting from the Israelis last year,
(05:20):
but they're not out of the fight. Hamas is still
present in Gaza. You have the hooties in rebels in Yemen.
They've already for most of last year shut down the
traffic through the Red Sea towards the Sewerz Canal. That
has caused unbelievable fiscal pain for the global shipping industry.
(05:41):
You know, something like twenty percent of the world's oil
is transited through there, So yeah, those are targets. And
then further even further afield. You know, synagogues, temples, schools, churches,
even in Europe, North America and elsewhere, those are also
in the targets. And Iran has even over the last
forty to fifty years since this revolution there took place,
(06:04):
that it's willing to attack soft targets like that.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Do you buy into the argument that there could be
sleeper cells in this country that came across the southern
border in the last four years, Yes, I do.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
I do buy that because I think We've already had
evidence of that. You know, We've had an Iranian assassination
plot against President Trump himself. We've also had attempts to
kill to assassinate John Bolton, who was former UN ambassador
for the US and an advisor to Trump. Massi al Najad,
who is a very well known Iranian dissident based in
(06:39):
New York. All these people have been targeted by the Iranians.
And if you look at Europe, in Sweden, for example,
Iran has been using criminal gangs to attack dissidents in Sweden.
In London, where a lot of the Iranian opposition media
is based, you actually had last year an incident where
an Iranian opposition journal was stabbed outside his place of work.
(07:03):
So yeah, these sleeper cells exist and can be activated,
and I think as the regene feels more and more pressure,
it may well opt to activate them.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Should that be our biggest concern?
Speaker 2 (07:18):
I think? Look, I think if you waken up this
morning in any one of the five boroughs, that is
certainly the most immediate concern. How realistic it is, I
really don't want to predict. I mean, that's the problem
with with sleeper cells is very often we don't know
who they are, and we don't know the capabilities they
(07:38):
have once they are activated. So you know, here in
the city, the NYPD has has elevated security around Jewish
community buildings. I think that's a very sensible measure, and
I think people just just just just have to be
vigilant and if you are attending or working at a
particular target that might be attracted tip to the Iranians,
(08:01):
then yet ask what the security measures are and are
there any more security measures being adopted.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
That's great advice. Ben Cohen, Senior analyst and Rapid Response
Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ben would
love to talk to you some more in the weeks
to come, especially when we get these damage assessments.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Absolutely, I'm alright here.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Thank you so much. I appreciate that again. Ben Cohen,
Senior analyst and Rapid Response Director at the Foundation for
Defensive Democracies.
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