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August 8, 2025 4 mins
Caleb and Larry break down the new economic figures that shows how President Trumps Economic plan is working. There is some good and bad in it. More rate cuts for England and Mortgage Rates are down in the USA.  
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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So a lot of economic figures are out right now.
So let's get right to Caleb Silver, who is an
ABC News contributor, but he is also editor in chief
of Investopedia. Thanks so much for joining us, Caleb, Thanks
for the time.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
My pleasure, and good morning to you.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
And let me know what these economic figures are. So
let's start with the good.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, the good is that we're seeing a little bit
of slack in mortgage rates. The thirty or fixed dropping
to six point six percent sounds still like a lot,
and it is a lot, but it is a little
bit of relief and that may bring some buyers into
the market, may bring some sellers into the market. We
know the housing market has been in a d breach
for a couple of years now, but this notion that
interest rates are probably headed lower, probably by the next

(00:44):
FED meeting in September, potentially maybe after that, and also
this relaxation in yields on the tenure treasury, those push
mortgage rates down and people have been waiting on the
sidelines for so long. Maybe we'll have a late summer
real estate rally that would be nice.

Speaker 1 (00:58):
It's very interesting that you see say that that interest
rates may be coming down. That seems to be the
predominant thought right now, that, especially with after the FED
chairman said that like they're holding steady and it's a
wait and see, you believe, and I think everybody believes
that they're going to come down. But how much.

Speaker 2 (01:19):
Yeah, and probably a baby cut in September, maybe a
quarter point maybe more. I think maybe if the FED
had seen how the Labor Department report was last week
for the month of July and those huge revisions to
May and June, they might have cut rates sooner. Because
the one thing that they have their eye on very
closely is the labor market, which we thought was strong
but is much weaker than we all perceived it to be,

(01:40):
and we saw that in those steep revisions, but we're
also seeing it in weekly claims, which are edging up,
but also more continuing claims for unemployment. That tells you
people been unemployed a long time are continuing to file
those unemployment claims. If this is coming right out of
time where those tariffs are going into place, so the
consumer could get squeezed here right in the time for
the holiday shot him back to school season.

Speaker 1 (02:01):
So you deal with investor pedias, so you deal with
investors all the time. What are they saying? Are they skettish?

Speaker 2 (02:08):
Well, investors are kind of enjoying these record highs and
near record highs with the stock market that just to
keep continuing to mount up behind the strength of some
of the biggest companies in the stock market, the big
tech players and Vidia of course, and Microsoft and others
that are making money because they're spending a lot of
money on building out that AI infrastructure, but they're also
stacking profits and that's where the kind of the momentum

(02:31):
has been in the stock market. We've also seen the
very high end do very well, which is a pretty
good representation of what's happening in the economy. High end consumers,
high income earners, those who are invested in the stock market,
those who own assets have been doing very well lately.
And the bottom part of the economy, the middle to
lower income workers, are not doing well at all.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
I heard Donald Trump speaking the other day and he
was talking about all the new investment in America. This
is when Apple announced they were going to invest six
hundred billion dollars in new plants across the country to
make most of the iPhones in this country. That's not all.
There's AI in Pittsburgh, AI out west. There's a whole
lot of things going on. It's your job to keep

(03:13):
track of this and to predict what's going to happen.

Speaker 2 (03:17):
Is the prediction, Rosie, Well, it's going to take a
long time to turn the United States economy back into
a manufacturing economy. And the real reason we haven't been
is because we could buy goods overseas for much cheaper
increase our profit margins. That's why companies have been doing
so well in the stock market. You know, it's just
been roaring to record highs. So that's a big change.

(03:38):
And creating a manufacturing base here means paying workers a
healthy age, it means building the infrastructure, and that doesn't
happen overnight. So it's a big experiment. It's going to
take a long time. But you have heard some of
the biggest companies in the world pledging to invest more
in the United States, Apple pledging six hundred billion dollars
over the next four years. Even companies like Taiwan Semiconductor
are pledging to invest more and build more in this

(04:00):
which could work over time. It's just going to take time,
and the question is how resilient can the economy? How
resilient can households be in the face of all this change.

Speaker 1 (04:09):
Caleb Silver, ABC News contributor also editor in chief of Investipedia. Caleb,
thanks for your time, have a good weekend.

Speaker 2 (04:17):
Thank you.
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