Dr. Benjamin Dworkin talks with Mendte in the Morning about the results of the NJ Governor primaries.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So now we know who are the candidates for to
be the future governor of New Jersey. Jack Chitarelli, former
assemblymen who almost beat Phil Murphy just a few years ago,
and Congresswoman Mikey Cheryl, And they were the favorites all
all along, everybody thought they were going to win, and
they did win. Now what does that mean for New Jersey?
(00:22):
For that, let's talk to doctor Benjamin J. Workin, founding
director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship
at Rowan University in Glassbarrow, New Jersey. So, uh, you
expected this as well when we talked to you last time,
just talked to you yesterday, you talked about Mikey Cheryl
and Jack Chittarelli. They were ahead in the polls and
(00:43):
it and it ended up being that now handicap this race.
What what what will we be looking at?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Uh?
Speaker 1 (00:50):
What are some of the factors that it's going to
play into this election? And what are some of the
background noises because I know people love to call this
a bell Weather election.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Well, first of all, good morning, Larry. Okay, there's a
lot to unpacking your question. Let me try and get
to it. First of all, yes, we fully expected Jack
Chattarelli to win handily, and he did. What was surprising
(01:20):
is how quickly the race was called for Mikey Ryl,
the congresswoman who's running for UH he's going to be
the Democrat nominee for governor, and we thought it would
be a little bit closer. We thought the race would
go a little bit further into the night before it
could be called. But before at thirty, she was declared
(01:41):
the winner and the polls only closed an eight. So
this was that was what was surprising last night. Now,
moving on handicapping this race in November, it's going to
be close. Now. There's probably the best way to think
about it is that there are two competing historical trend
On one hand, one favors the Democrats, which is that
(02:05):
historically in New Jersey, which has elections, the year after
we have presidential elections, whomever wins the presidency, the opposite
party will win the governorship. So when a Democrat wins
the White House, the next year, a Republican wins for
governor and vice versas. So you had Donald Trump win,
you would think this bodes well for Democrat Mikey Cheryl
(02:29):
competing against that is a trend, that historical trend that
favors the Republican, which is that New Jersey almost never
gives a third consecutive term to the same party in
the running for governor. So we've already had, We're coming
out of two four year terms for Democrat Phil Murphy.
(02:50):
For the Democrats to now go and say, hey, we've
got Mikey Sheryl gives the Democrats a third straight term
in the governor's seat in New Jersey, that's going to
be We haven't seen that happen since nineteen sixty one.
So these are two competing trends, and I think what
we're looking at is going to be a very close race.
(03:11):
Now you asked about the other forces, The biggest one
is clearly the Donald Trump presidency. How popular is he
in October of this year will determine a lot about
who's gonna win in November of this year.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Yeah, no, I agree with you completely, But I was
really taken aback by the fact. Now Chiarelli said what
I expected him to say that if you're going to
vote for Mikey Cheryl, that's just a continuation of Phil Murphy.
If you like Phil Murphy, you're getting the same thing
from Mikey Cheryl. I'm not saying that's true, but that's
a good strategy for him. I was surprised how little
(03:51):
Mikey Cheryl was talking about Donald Trump. I thought she
was going to lead with that. I thought that was
going to be your entire campaign. And it leads me
to believe that they believe Donald Trump is more popular
in New Jersey than maybe he's given credit for, and
attacking him may not be the best strategy at least
right now. That could change, but at least right now.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
It's partially that. You know, the last poll that we saw,
which was from May, had Donald Trump at a forty
seven forty seven approval disapproval rating. That's not great, but
it's not certainly, you know, completely underwater here. So with
every week in the Trump presidency, opinion change. So there's
(04:36):
a lot of time between now and when people will vote,
So that's part of it. You know, are they concerned
that he's a little more popular than most people think.
Maybe the bigger issue is that I think the Democrats
learned a lesson back in twenty twenty four. They can't
just focus on Donald Trump. They have to focus on
the issues like that relate to affordability in New Jersey,
(05:00):
and I think that's what you're gonna hear a lot
from Mikey Cheryl and the Democrats as they run this fall.
They're gonna be talking about affordability, They're talking about tax relief,
They're going to be talking about doing the things that
in the end, it's the you know, the kitchen table issues.
So Mikey Cheryl is going to probably be very focused
(05:23):
on that. From a strictly political strategic perspective, your opinion
on Donald Trump is baked in. You don't even have
to mention it to get people. You don't have to
mention Donald Trump for people to be motivated to vote
for or again the Donald Trump candidate.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
On the other hand, I'm sorry then. But on the
other hand, Chitarelly embraced Trump last night, embraced and thanked him.
Led with that. I thought that he might shift after
the primary for the general election and distance himself a
little bit, not at all, so that there was something
(06:00):
going on.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
No, And I think, look, it's a different Republican Party
than it was even four years ago. You can't get away.
You're not going to win this primary unless you are
there embracing Donald Trump. And Jack Chittarelli, who said some
negative things about Donald Trump backed you know in twenty fifteen,
(06:22):
twenty sixteen. Now he is fully, he has done his JD. Evans,
He has, you know, fully embraced him and welcome him,
which is the key to survival for any Republican. So
I think you believe him. I don't think Chitdarelli is lying.
He will embrace him. It is the nature of it.
(06:45):
You're not gonna be able to run away from the
president at this point.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
No, I agree with you. Thank you so much. BENJ. Workin,
founding director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and
Citizenship at Rowan University in Glassborough, New Jersey. Always a
pleasure having good day. I can't wait to talk to
you again.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Done here too, I look forward to it. Larry, thank you,
Thanks a lot.
So now we know who are the candidates for to
be the future governor of New Jersey. Jack Chitarelli, former
assemblymen who almost beat Phil Murphy just a few years ago,
and Congresswoman Mikey Cheryl, And they were the favorites all
all along, everybody thought they were going to win, and
they did win. Now what does that mean for New Jersey?
(00:22):
For that, let's talk to doctor Benjamin J. Workin, founding
director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship
at Rowan University in Glassbarrow, New Jersey. So, uh, you
expected this as well when we talked to you last time,
just talked to you yesterday, you talked about Mikey Cheryl
and Jack Chittarelli. They were ahead in the polls and
(00:43):
it and it ended up being that now handicap this race.
What what what will we be looking at?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Uh?
Speaker 1 (00:50):
What are some of the factors that it's going to
play into this election? And what are some of the
background noises because I know people love to call this
a bell Weather election.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Well, first of all, good morning, Larry. Okay, there's a
lot to unpacking your question. Let me try and get
to it. First of all, yes, we fully expected Jack
Chattarelli to win handily, and he did. What was surprising
(01:20):
is how quickly the race was called for Mikey Ryl,
the congresswoman who's running for UH he's going to be
the Democrat nominee for governor, and we thought it would
be a little bit closer. We thought the race would
go a little bit further into the night before it
could be called. But before at thirty, she was declared
(01:41):
the winner and the polls only closed an eight. So
this was that was what was surprising last night. Now,
moving on handicapping this race in November, it's going to
be close. Now. There's probably the best way to think
about it is that there are two competing historical trend
On one hand, one favors the Democrats, which is that
(02:05):
historically in New Jersey, which has elections, the year after
we have presidential elections, whomever wins the presidency, the opposite
party will win the governorship. So when a Democrat wins
the White House, the next year, a Republican wins for
governor and vice versas. So you had Donald Trump win,
you would think this bodes well for Democrat Mikey Cheryl
(02:29):
competing against that is a trend, that historical trend that
favors the Republican, which is that New Jersey almost never
gives a third consecutive term to the same party in
the running for governor. So we've already had, We're coming
out of two four year terms for Democrat Phil Murphy.
(02:50):
For the Democrats to now go and say, hey, we've
got Mikey Sheryl gives the Democrats a third straight term
in the governor's seat in New Jersey, that's going to
be We haven't seen that happen since nineteen sixty one.
So these are two competing trends, and I think what
we're looking at is going to be a very close race.
(03:11):
Now you asked about the other forces, The biggest one
is clearly the Donald Trump presidency. How popular is he
in October of this year will determine a lot about
who's gonna win in November of this year.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Yeah, no, I agree with you completely, But I was
really taken aback by the fact. Now Chiarelli said what
I expected him to say that if you're going to
vote for Mikey Cheryl, that's just a continuation of Phil Murphy.
If you like Phil Murphy, you're getting the same thing
from Mikey Cheryl. I'm not saying that's true, but that's
a good strategy for him. I was surprised how little
(03:51):
Mikey Cheryl was talking about Donald Trump. I thought she
was going to lead with that. I thought that was
going to be your entire campaign. And it leads me
to believe that they believe Donald Trump is more popular
in New Jersey than maybe he's given credit for, and
attacking him may not be the best strategy at least
right now. That could change, but at least right now.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
It's partially that. You know, the last poll that we saw,
which was from May, had Donald Trump at a forty
seven forty seven approval disapproval rating. That's not great, but
it's not certainly, you know, completely underwater here. So with
every week in the Trump presidency, opinion change. So there's
(04:36):
a lot of time between now and when people will vote,
So that's part of it. You know, are they concerned
that he's a little more popular than most people think.
Maybe the bigger issue is that I think the Democrats
learned a lesson back in twenty twenty four. They can't
just focus on Donald Trump. They have to focus on
the issues like that relate to affordability in New Jersey,
(05:00):
and I think that's what you're gonna hear a lot
from Mikey Cheryl and the Democrats as they run this fall.
They're gonna be talking about affordability, They're talking about tax relief,
They're going to be talking about doing the things that
in the end, it's the you know, the kitchen table issues.
So Mikey Cheryl is going to probably be very focused
(05:23):
on that. From a strictly political strategic perspective, your opinion
on Donald Trump is baked in. You don't even have
to mention it to get people. You don't have to
mention Donald Trump for people to be motivated to vote
for or again the Donald Trump candidate.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
On the other hand, I'm sorry then. But on the
other hand, Chitarelly embraced Trump last night, embraced and thanked him.
Led with that. I thought that he might shift after
the primary for the general election and distance himself a
little bit, not at all, so that there was something
(06:00):
going on.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
No, And I think, look, it's a different Republican Party
than it was even four years ago. You can't get away.
You're not going to win this primary unless you are
there embracing Donald Trump. And Jack Chittarelli, who said some
negative things about Donald Trump backed you know in twenty fifteen,
(06:22):
twenty sixteen. Now he is fully, he has done his JD. Evans,
He has, you know, fully embraced him and welcome him,
which is the key to survival for any Republican. So
I think you believe him. I don't think Chitdarelli is lying.
He will embrace him. It is the nature of it.
(06:45):
You're not gonna be able to run away from the
president at this point.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
No, I agree with you. Thank you so much. BENJ. Workin,
founding director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and
Citizenship at Rowan University in Glassborough, New Jersey. Always a
pleasure having good day. I can't wait to talk to
you again.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Done here too, I look forward to it. Larry, thank you,
Thanks a lot.
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