August 13, 2025 • 7 mins
Mendte in the Morning talks to Hank Sheinkopf about the recent Mayoral polls in NYC and how shocking it is that Zohran Mamdani has such a wide lead.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's get right to Hank Shinkoff, longtime democratic consultant and
political consultant. Hank, you know why we called you today,
and thanks for answering the call and coming on with
us because of this poll that a lot of people
are concerned about. You do this for a living. When
you see this poll, what are your thoughts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
My thoughts are that, look, this is September. Anything can happen.
I was just talking to a President Carter who was
up on the weekend and Ronald Reagan took him out.
And then there was a bunch of other guys who
were up on the weekend before the election and they lost.
Anything can happen, And the issue in New York is
very different. There's always something insane that happens in New
(00:41):
York City contested mayoral right before the election day. That
changes the dynamic that can happen here. But if you
had to bet today, bet Montdamie will be the mayor,
and Bet we're going to have an interesting time.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Yeah, let's go through each one of these because I
heard your take on this and it was fascinating when
you came to each one. Now you think mom, Donnie
is polling a little bit lower than he should.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Yeah, I think he is right now, but that could
change again. Elections are based election outcomes are based on
who turns out to vote. So we don't know who's
coming out to vote. We can guess tomate now one
of the I saw one poll yesterday. There was Facebook
poll that I discounted. Then there was the other Siena
poll that had a that had a six or seven
percent potential for error, which I kind of discounted because
(01:31):
nobody knows how to poll this. Why because people that
are turning out are not most likely voters, and samples
are generally drawn for most likely voters, and that's not
the case Heredie's Mandannie's election victory was about most not
about least likely voters under thirty five. So who turns
out always determines outcomes. Are those same people coming out?
I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Well, that's exactly what Eric Adams says. He says, there's
going to be a lot of new voters. This is
going to be a different election, may role election than
we have seen in a long long time, and the
people are going to come out to vote that haven't
voted before. But you're saying that doesn't necessarily help him.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
That doesn't necessarily help him. You have to in order
for Eric Adams to win, he's got to reverse the order.
What do I mean by that? Generally, consultants and when
they sit down to figure out either going to target
the campaign go on a four scale. Who voted in
the last three of the four elections, who voted in
the four to the last four elections. Well Mandamie did
was he picked everybody under thirty five who voted in
zero of the last four elections, one of the last
(02:29):
four elections, two out of least four elections. As a starter,
Adams has to reverse that of people over forty and
he's got to get those voters. And it's not going
to be simple. It's very hard. They're tough to find
a lot of them. Some of them have stationary phones.
Contacting them is going to be very different, and it's
going to be a very different kind of campaign. Why
(02:49):
when you have these kinds of contested elections, they generally
indicate that there's a major population shift in the city,
that there's something new that we haven't seen before. And
this is going to show us what that's something is.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
I'll tell you what A lot of viewers have called
in today and they were talking about polling, and it's
interesting that they are so interested in political polling right
now and they don't believe any polls. They think the
polls have been so bad in recent years that they
don't buy this poll and they don't buy any polls.
Can you defend polling?
Speaker 2 (03:22):
I can defend some of it. It depends who does it.
But the Republicans are in much more accurate of laid.
So there's a post in John McLaughlin with which it's
very good on the Republican side. On the Democrat side,
the problem is they keep doing the same thing. You
know what posters do is they go to the same houses,
the same businesses to draw samples because they don't make
their own samples, so they're constantly testing the same people.
(03:44):
And when you test the same people, you've got to
come up with false positives or false negatives. So polling
by definition is inaccurate. Also, the Internet has changed that
because people don't have end cell phones, people don't use landlines,
which is the way that posters generally connected, and now
they've got to fair how to get cell phones. And
what the accuracy is are the people you're calling are
they really the people you're calling? So the entire political
(04:06):
business is in flux, but the political industrial complex, which
I've talked about on your show before, the usual gang
of consults will forget to whet to justify everything that's
not true.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
There is a theory out there that I kind of
buy into that Donald Trump has imposed himself into this
race knowing the effect it would have, and he may
have very well leaked that story to the New York
Times and put Andrew Cuomo in a horrible position because
he actually wants there in Mam Donnie to win. He
can hold him up as the boogeyman. He can be
(04:38):
the hero in mom Donnie the villain. Do you buy
into that at all?
Speaker 2 (04:43):
I buy into part of it. Whoever Trump endorses will
lose the election. Trump's numbers in New York City are disastrous, disastrous,
and Mon Dommie understands that, which is why you went
on the anti Trump tool. He's got nothing else to
talk about because his positions overall and in defensible and
not achievable in most cases. So having the anti Trump
tour and having the usual gang of hoop political people
(05:06):
electives following him, we're all worried about their seats should
the DSA candidate win. Mondamie the Democratic Social America Candy,
which could create a revolution in New York politics. By
the way, so you know Trump endorses promo the end
of Clomo. The story leaked to the Times, probably by
the Trump its end of Cromo or the beginning of
the end of Cromo. So I think that Cromo has
(05:26):
got problems. Why it's called been around too long. When
you're around too long, it's easy to take shots at you.
He's been around too long when the substantial negatives on
him are difficult. His pro board released, I think forty
four cop killers. I mean that alone in once the
city would be a This would be an absolute disaster
for him. So I do think Trump's a play here,
(05:47):
and I think Trump's a major factor from Mondami's victory
and frankly for the end of Clomo now that that
story's been leaked.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Yeah, I think Donald Trump is behind a lot of this,
and I think he's playing chess with this and that
he would like Mom Donnie in because it helps the
Republicans in the midterm elections, and I think the Republican
Party would love it. And the proof is if you
watch Fox News, they talk about Mom Donni all the time.
So does the president. President talks about almost every news conference.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Something I said that you might agree with him, might
not publicly is that the election of Mandanmi plus the
mayor of Chicago plus the mayor of Los Angeles throwing
one other gives Trump an opportunity to run against all
of them should he try to figure it a way
to get a third term. And I believe that's what's
in his brain. He's not going any place that it
doesn't have to, and running against those mayors in the
(06:37):
cities is a very smart thing to do. And that's
why you effrectively put the entire force of the federal
government into Washington, to show that it's somehow outrageously out
of control, that he's the only one who can fix
the problems of chaos and disorder. That is always the
mark of someone who intends to take more power. We've
seen historically, time and time and time again, Americans, contrary
(06:58):
to what they may believe, are not exist them from
historical trends. There's something going on in the country, and
a lot of people would be receptive to a lot
of the elector would be receptive to what Trump is doing.
Why because they believe that there is disorder in the cities.
They don't like the cities. They don't like African American mayors,
well were mayors who are not like them. Mandamie certainly
won't be like them. May be a Muslim American who
(07:20):
is running the city's the nation's most powerful city, which
is detested by most of the countries. So there you
have it.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Yeah, heinksig I get it. Hangs Chang chin Kov, longtime
Democratic consultant and political consultant. Pretty fascinating.
Let's get right to Hank Shinkoff, longtime democratic consultant and
political consultant. Hank, you know why we called you today,
and thanks for answering the call and coming on with
us because of this poll that a lot of people
are concerned about. You do this for a living. When
you see this poll, what are your thoughts.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
My thoughts are that, look, this is September. Anything can happen.
I was just talking to a President Carter who was
up on the weekend and Ronald Reagan took him out.
And then there was a bunch of other guys who
were up on the weekend before the election and they lost.
Anything can happen, And the issue in New York is
very different. There's always something insane that happens in New
(00:41):
York City contested mayoral right before the election day. That
changes the dynamic that can happen here. But if you
had to bet today, bet Montdamie will be the mayor,
and Bet we're going to have an interesting time.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Yeah, let's go through each one of these because I
heard your take on this and it was fascinating when
you came to each one. Now you think mom, Donnie
is polling a little bit lower than he should.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Yeah, I think he is right now, but that could
change again. Elections are based election outcomes are based on
who turns out to vote. So we don't know who's
coming out to vote. We can guess tomate now one
of the I saw one poll yesterday. There was Facebook
poll that I discounted. Then there was the other Siena
poll that had a that had a six or seven
percent potential for error, which I kind of discounted because
(01:31):
nobody knows how to poll this. Why because people that
are turning out are not most likely voters, and samples
are generally drawn for most likely voters, and that's not
the case Heredie's Mandannie's election victory was about most not
about least likely voters under thirty five. So who turns
out always determines outcomes. Are those same people coming out?
I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Well, that's exactly what Eric Adams says. He says, there's
going to be a lot of new voters. This is
going to be a different election, may role election than
we have seen in a long long time, and the
people are going to come out to vote that haven't
voted before. But you're saying that doesn't necessarily help him.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
That doesn't necessarily help him. You have to in order
for Eric Adams to win, he's got to reverse the order.
What do I mean by that? Generally, consultants and when
they sit down to figure out either going to target
the campaign go on a four scale. Who voted in
the last three of the four elections, who voted in
the four to the last four elections. Well Mandamie did
was he picked everybody under thirty five who voted in
zero of the last four elections, one of the last
(02:29):
four elections, two out of least four elections. As a starter,
Adams has to reverse that of people over forty and
he's got to get those voters. And it's not going
to be simple. It's very hard. They're tough to find
a lot of them. Some of them have stationary phones.
Contacting them is going to be very different, and it's
going to be a very different kind of campaign. Why
(02:49):
when you have these kinds of contested elections, they generally
indicate that there's a major population shift in the city,
that there's something new that we haven't seen before. And
this is going to show us what that's something is.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
I'll tell you what A lot of viewers have called
in today and they were talking about polling, and it's
interesting that they are so interested in political polling right
now and they don't believe any polls. They think the
polls have been so bad in recent years that they
don't buy this poll and they don't buy any polls.
Can you defend polling?
Speaker 2 (03:22):
I can defend some of it. It depends who does it.
But the Republicans are in much more accurate of laid.
So there's a post in John McLaughlin with which it's
very good on the Republican side. On the Democrat side,
the problem is they keep doing the same thing. You
know what posters do is they go to the same houses,
the same businesses to draw samples because they don't make
their own samples, so they're constantly testing the same people.
(03:44):
And when you test the same people, you've got to
come up with false positives or false negatives. So polling
by definition is inaccurate. Also, the Internet has changed that
because people don't have end cell phones, people don't use landlines,
which is the way that posters generally connected, and now
they've got to fair how to get cell phones. And
what the accuracy is are the people you're calling are
they really the people you're calling? So the entire political
(04:06):
business is in flux, but the political industrial complex, which
I've talked about on your show before, the usual gang
of consults will forget to whet to justify everything that's
not true.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
There is a theory out there that I kind of
buy into that Donald Trump has imposed himself into this
race knowing the effect it would have, and he may
have very well leaked that story to the New York
Times and put Andrew Cuomo in a horrible position because
he actually wants there in Mam Donnie to win. He
can hold him up as the boogeyman. He can be
(04:38):
the hero in mom Donnie the villain. Do you buy
into that at all?
Speaker 2 (04:43):
I buy into part of it. Whoever Trump endorses will
lose the election. Trump's numbers in New York City are disastrous, disastrous,
and Mon Dommie understands that, which is why you went
on the anti Trump tool. He's got nothing else to
talk about because his positions overall and in defensible and
not achievable in most cases. So having the anti Trump
tour and having the usual gang of hoop political people
(05:06):
electives following him, we're all worried about their seats should
the DSA candidate win. Mondamie the Democratic Social America Candy,
which could create a revolution in New York politics. By
the way, so you know Trump endorses promo the end
of Clomo. The story leaked to the Times, probably by
the Trump its end of Cromo or the beginning of
the end of Cromo. So I think that Cromo has
(05:26):
got problems. Why it's called been around too long. When
you're around too long, it's easy to take shots at you.
He's been around too long when the substantial negatives on
him are difficult. His pro board released, I think forty
four cop killers. I mean that alone in once the
city would be a This would be an absolute disaster
for him. So I do think Trump's a play here,
(05:47):
and I think Trump's a major factor from Mondami's victory
and frankly for the end of Clomo now that that
story's been leaked.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Yeah, I think Donald Trump is behind a lot of this,
and I think he's playing chess with this and that
he would like Mom Donnie in because it helps the
Republicans in the midterm elections, and I think the Republican
Party would love it. And the proof is if you
watch Fox News, they talk about Mom Donni all the time.
So does the president. President talks about almost every news conference.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Something I said that you might agree with him, might
not publicly is that the election of Mandanmi plus the
mayor of Chicago plus the mayor of Los Angeles throwing
one other gives Trump an opportunity to run against all
of them should he try to figure it a way
to get a third term. And I believe that's what's
in his brain. He's not going any place that it
doesn't have to, and running against those mayors in the
(06:37):
cities is a very smart thing to do. And that's
why you effrectively put the entire force of the federal
government into Washington, to show that it's somehow outrageously out
of control, that he's the only one who can fix
the problems of chaos and disorder. That is always the
mark of someone who intends to take more power. We've
seen historically, time and time and time again, Americans, contrary
(06:58):
to what they may believe, are not exist them from
historical trends. There's something going on in the country, and
a lot of people would be receptive to a lot
of the elector would be receptive to what Trump is doing.
Why because they believe that there is disorder in the cities.
They don't like the cities. They don't like African American mayors,
well were mayors who are not like them. Mandamie certainly
won't be like them. May be a Muslim American who
(07:20):
is running the city's the nation's most powerful city, which
is detested by most of the countries. So there you
have it.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Yeah, heinksig I get it. Hangs Chang chin Kov, longtime
Democratic consultant and political consultant. Pretty fascinating.
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