Earnings, AI, and All-Time Highs: Markets at a Crossroads

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning. It's Saturday, Sunday morning, July twenty since Saturday
morning a most point, no wonder. We're gonna get Dean
back soon. Sunday morning, July twenty seventh, in the desert.
This is the Money Matters show. Remember, less than five
months till Christmas, so it kind of helps when it's
one hundred and eight degrees out. Hopefully this is the
last one hundred and eight degree day of the year

(00:22):
that was really nice, Wasn't it possible? Possible? It's I've
had about enough of them. How you guys doing. I've
got the Subashian Borsini, Todd Click Junior. Dean Greenberg is
out of the office, and I've got Dylan Greenberg, which
is which is a team right.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
Another recund for a week, another record high week, and
we're just seen it all across the board. The S
and P five hundred up one and a half percent,
but the equated up one point nine. So we're seeing
a little bit of a broadening of this rally to
other names. But right now, the corporate outlooks that we've
gotten with the first week of really big corporate earnings

(01:00):
have been much better than expected. We had some lowering
on the tenure, which also helped stocks. We got some
more trade deals that helped stocks. Next week's a big week.
We have the Federal Reserve. Next week, we have big
tech earnings out of Apple and other big companies like that,
and then we have the August first, self imposed Trump
trade deadline.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
Now of the S and P five hundred report next
week thirty percent.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
So big week next week, But leading up to that week,
a huge week in the market on top of an
already huge month that just continues to scream higher. Seemed
at almost every single day we made a new all
time high.

Speaker 3 (01:34):
We did.

Speaker 4 (01:34):
We had five straight days of SMP all time highs,
and the nazakid and all time high at the end
of this week too, So it's been great.

Speaker 1 (01:42):
This is July twenty seventh, the last down day for
the S and P five hundred July fifteenth. Wow, isn't
that amazing? Yeah? I mean there's ten consecutive days without
a down date. That just done. You don't see that
hardly ever, And.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Now thirty two percent off that low, and I think
the stat was about eighteen percent since Trump and post
the terraces, And if you would have told any of
us that would be up eighteen percent this short of
the time after he imposed those terrorts. I don't think
anyone would have thought that. But the market has been
rewarding what has been done thus far. But it's also
on the back of that Ai revolution, and it's really

(02:16):
still there. Red Hot.

Speaker 5 (02:18):
A lot of a meme stock craze this week too.
That's a little bit concerning as a money manager.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
That would a welcome back to Do you want to
explain what a meme stock is?

Speaker 5 (02:25):
Yeah, I mean back when if anybody remembers a game
stop trade back in the day or two or three
years ago.

Speaker 6 (02:32):
This thing cut steam by every redditors.

Speaker 5 (02:37):
Reddit is a chat platform that you can go on
and it has a huge community based in it. And
sometimes these things that have a very high short interest,
so people are borrowing shares to sell them because they
think they could get them later at a lower price.
Sometimes they catch steam and they explode, and that's what
happened this week. We had Cole's this week. I'm pretty
sure we had Open Door. I mean that thing was

(02:59):
up I want to say, hundred and fifty percent at
one point this week, and then you had another one.
I think it was donut Krispy Kreme, and.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
That's considered the retail traders, and a retail trader is
really just every day person, right, They average Joe investor,
and normally when they say institutional investors, those are the
big people obviously, like the fidelities, the vanguards and all
pension plans and things like that. So retail traders are
normally the thing that you don't want to follow in

(03:26):
investing because it's kind of like a contrarian indicator. Some
money managers actually use that as a contrarier indicator. But
as of late, since pretty much the pandemic, there has
been sprouts of the market that have gone absolutely nuts
because of the retail trading friendly that really has got
sparked because of apps like Robinhood and kind of the
democratization of securities making it easier to buy a stock.

(03:51):
Has never been easier in the history of the world
to buy a financial asset in a company, so that
has led to more speculation as well as cheap money
being embedded. You have a lot of a lot of
casino like aspects of certain parts of the stock.

Speaker 1 (04:05):
Market, and what they'll try to do is I'll try
to grab a Coals or an open door or a
Krispy Kreme or a Go Pro. Stocks that are trading
under five dollars typically and there's an orchestrated attempt to
get it to start flying. And the idea is the
greater fool. Right you get in there. Let's say it's

(04:27):
two dollars and you decide you're going to buy a
million shares at two dollars and fifty cents. All of
a sudden, it's up and it's hitting the headlines. Other
people are jumping in there while you're selling your million
dollars worth of stock to them.

Speaker 3 (04:41):
So it's just what they don't sell it.

Speaker 4 (04:43):
The people that get in at the high, they're not selling,
and then they watch it go from coals, for example,
they watch it go from two dollars to twenty dollars.
They don't sell it twenty dollars. They watch it go
all the way back to two dollars, and then they
get all nervous. And that's a lot of the reasons
you don't follow retail investors, because they bet on emotions.
Institutional invest there's been in on other factors, financials, technicals.

(05:04):
Then they're moving big money, and that's what moves the
overall market.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
This is where investing becomes gambling. It's not investing anymore.
When you're playing with the memestock.

Speaker 4 (05:12):
You see a bitcoin, for example, a lot. You got
people that get in at the highs because they want
to be part of it. Now they finally feel like
they're more comfortable enough to get in, and then that
was a high, and then it goes all the way
down twenty percent, and then they sell and never want
anything to do with bitcoin again, even though bigcoin goes
back up. It happened a lot when bitcoin hit sixty
eight thousand for the first time. That was the big high,
dropped all the way down in twenties again. By then,

(05:35):
if you got into sixty eight dropped twenty and you sold,
probably want nothing to do with bitcoin.

Speaker 3 (05:39):
But if you held, look where it is now.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
And then and you look at the market and you think,
how can this keep going? It's just every day, go
go go. It's getting so overvalued. It's ridiculous. Blah blah blah.
When Trump became president, the day before he was elected,
the S and P five hundred was at fifty seven
to twelve. It's now twelve percent higher than that, So

(06:02):
if you knew what he was going to do in
the first nine months or yeah, nine months of his presidency,
twelve percent is pretty modest when you consider what has
been done and what he is going to be done,
the things that have been accomplished, the changes that have
been made, the positive things for the economy and for

(06:23):
the country. Twelve percent, it's pretty modest. Now the difference,
of course, Todder, you just mentioned D S and P
thirty two percent off of the April lull. You take
the April loll out of the equation, it's pretty normal.
Twelve percent gain in nine months with this president, with
these policies, pretty reasonable.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
And if you take it one step further that everyone's
always comparing the current PE ratio to the historical PE average,
but that average has continuously gone up over time as
economies go through different revolutions. I mean, looking at a
PE ratio of a company before for the industrial revolution
is gonna look much different. And then after they invented

(07:03):
the transistor, things become much different, the dot com much different.
I mean, every single time the new revolution comes about,
and that's what seems to be what's pricing in the market. Obviously,
markets can get ahead of themselves. That's what happened in
the dot com bubble. But I don't even know if
the market's ahead of themselves right now based on some
of the things that AI could potentially create.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
You look at the price arnage ratio of the Nasdaq,
which over the last ten years has averaged thirty. Right
now it's forty. Now can you make a case that
it probably should be forty because of the advancements that
are coming or that have come and are coming with AI.
You could make that case. The VIC, which is the

(07:45):
fear index at the lower the year. Again, I mentioned
earlier the last down day for the S and P
was two weeks ago. We're getting in a little frothy here,
but they're just is no shelling. And I think Todd
pointed out some of the things and doing that are coming,
that that are taking place. That the trade deal with

(08:06):
the Japan was my big news of the week. Toyota
jump thirteen percent on that news. Now CNN thinks the
top story is Trump and Epstein, and Fox thinks the
top stories Obama's involved in Russia. But I think it
was probably the Japanese trade deal. And then next week
I'm guessing we're probably going to get some type of
a euro Zone trade deal. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (08:27):
Trump actually said fifty to fifty on Friday on whether
or not that was actually going to come about. So
that could be an interesting market mover, But I think
the bigger one is going to be the FED and
then as well as the corporate areians. I think just
a side note that the did you see the renovation
tour that Trump did with the I did? That was
a great was that was Yeah?

Speaker 3 (08:50):
Different pages, It was very.

Speaker 1 (08:51):
Entertaining, and they're clearly on different pages. Trump nominated him
and believed in him, thought he was a great FED chair,
or at least someone told Trump he would be a
great FED chair. Yeah, Trump did nominate. But now they
look like the guys that are having a real hard
time being in the same room together.

Speaker 4 (09:09):
Trump said, they talked, and he has a very strong
positive feeling that they're going to cut rates sooner rather
than later. So we'll see if that comes to fruition.
And say Pal said it, he just had a feeling.

Speaker 1 (09:20):
Wouldn't Paul love to cut rates? If you were Paul,
why wouldn't you cut rates? It takes all the pressure off.

Speaker 2 (09:26):
The rising of inflation.

Speaker 1 (09:28):
It's not the right thing to do, right, I mean,
I'm sorry, it's not the right thing to do. I
understand where Trump is coming from, because lower rates will
make refinance the debt cheaper and make the budget look better.
I get that. That's where Trump's coming from. Paul is saying,
I don't want to cut rates only to raise them
again ninety days later.

Speaker 2 (09:47):
Do you think we're currently in a recession?

Speaker 1 (09:49):
No? Oh no, absolutely not right, So.

Speaker 2 (09:53):
That's that's the only question is if the economy is
not doing well, then maybe you can have a case
to cut rates. But otherwise, yeah, it's it's pretty.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
Retail sales were good, We're getting jobs. Reports have been good.
I was at Deckers reported on Friday, very strong sales
of their of their high end shoes. The consumer is okay.

Speaker 2 (10:18):
Deckers got absolutely killed.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
Yeah, the Deckers down fifty percent. I get but I
get that. But it popped nicely on Friday when they
reported better than expected results. And again, the thing I
took away from that was the consumer, at least at Deckers,
it's fine, and we saw retail sales last week jump
better than expected.

Speaker 2 (10:40):
Yeah. I had a similar analysis when I saw Levi's
Strauss report with their genes. I mean that's a very
just retailed type of product. You know, if that's going up,
if they think people are going to still be buying
more genes even after a little bit, I mean they're
you know, taking on most of that tariff costs themselves,
but the genes are going to be a little more expensive,
and they don't I don't think volume is going to

(11:01):
go down at all.

Speaker 5 (11:02):
Yeah, but then you have company like Chipotle come out
in reports and they have you know, they drop thirteen percent, right,
so I know that that's a fast food chain. Is
the consumer weakening there? Are they eating out less?

Speaker 4 (11:14):
We think the guidance was lowered because I don't think
people are going to come to Chipoli as much because
as fast food restaurant's got to raise their prices, people
might just opt for If I'm going to pay about
the same for a fast food restaurant as I would
if I go to the grocery store, I'm going to
go to the grocery store because it's healthier food.

Speaker 1 (11:29):
Remember last week we talked about that survey of what
people were going to cut back on if if there
was with the tariffs.

Speaker 4 (11:36):
And number one was eating out, which makes sense, but
it seems like it's a luxury in a sense to
go no doubt.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
I wonder if Chipotle's maybe looking at that report saying, wow,
it looks like it's going to slow down here we've
been to a lower with the guidance. It's kind of interesting
because we've talked about Kava, a Mediterranean grill, being the
Mediterranean Chipotle. Their stock with down six percent after Chipoltle reported,
So I guess people are taking like.

Speaker 4 (12:01):
They don't want to cut their quality. Chipotle seems to
have a little higher quality than the McDonald's, so right,
you cut the quality, then that brings a whole other issues.

Speaker 2 (12:10):
And Chippotle is really expensive pricing in really high growth
for that, so any type of slowing of guidance is
going to write that stock hard.

Speaker 1 (12:18):
Speaking of expensive, let's talk about Tesla. Speaking of expensive,
stock was already down seventeen percent for the year, and
a lot of that was because it ran up so
strongly right after Trump was elected on all the wonderful
things Trump was going to do for Elon, which turned
out to be nothing. So the stock is down seventeen
percent from that ten percent lower on Thursday after reporting

(12:41):
the disappointing quarter. That's competition. Competition is heating up. I
mean I see electric vehicles everywhere, and a lot of
them are not Tesla's. A lot of them are not Teslas.
Doesn't mean that Tesla is not good. I told you,
I said last week. My lease is coming up in
eleven months, so I'm starting to kind of kick tires
and stuff, and they're just nothing out there that compares

(13:02):
to Tesla. Now, if you don't want Tesla because you
don't like Elon, or you want to be a little
bit different, you don't want to be one of the sheep,
I get that. I get that. But from a purely
technology point of view, ride speed handling, there's nothing compares
to Tesla. However, the stock is one hundred and seventy

(13:25):
times earnings. One hundred and seventy times earnings. Now, in theory,
your price of your stock should be the rate of growth.
I'm sorry, your stock price time is a rate of growth. Right.
So if your stock is ten and you're grown, excuse me,
I'm getting lost here. If your earnings are a dollar
and you're growing a ten percent, your stock ought to

(13:47):
be ten dollars, right, But in this case, it's one
hundred and seventy times that the company. The stock did
bounce back about fifty percent of WOU lost on Friday,
I would have lost on Thursday. On Friday, it bounced
back about fifty percent because people are focused on robotics
and that being the future of the company as opposed

(14:08):
to the car. Yeah, but even if robotics becomes all
that one hundred and seventy times earning point, you just
gotta yeah, if you look at wonder what's drawing people
into that stock.

Speaker 2 (14:20):
If you look at the last earnings, the services side
of their businesses growing and that the year over year
of that is still doing it better. But yeah, their
auto sales are not looking beautiful so at all, so
that's really hurting. The stock is still a majority, like
at least sixty five seventy percent of their business. So
until the other side flips, there's really no warrant for this,

(14:41):
but people are gonna speculate. It's a great trading tool.

Speaker 3 (14:44):
That's why it's so voutile too.

Speaker 4 (14:46):
And it drops twenty percent, it goes up twenty percent,
all within the same.

Speaker 1 (14:50):
Week, sixty dollars.

Speaker 3 (14:53):
Yeah, yeah, moves that much in week like week.

Speaker 1 (14:56):
Oh absolutely, Yeah, So with down thirty dollars, I think,
don't on Thursday, Yeah, a three hundred dollars stock, we're
down thirty dollars and then bounced back fifteen dollars. I
have a few clients who bought the stock to support
Elon back when Elon was getting all beat up and
Lily the sixty ish, so they're still fine. I mean,

(15:18):
things have not gotten better for Tesla over the last
four months.

Speaker 4 (15:23):
The only thing that has gotten different at that point
from the two sixty to now is that Musk is
no longer dealing with the doge in the government, right,
He's now against the government.

Speaker 3 (15:30):
So people bought this.

Speaker 1 (15:31):
I don't see any protests.

Speaker 3 (15:32):
I don't see any no more no more molotov cocktails.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
Yeah, I guess.

Speaker 2 (15:37):
I saw a poll that's about twenty three percent of
Americans think it's a good idea to have that third party.

Speaker 1 (15:43):
Yeah, well that's worked out so well in the past,
right you're not independent?

Speaker 4 (15:46):
Yeah, the Libertarian Party and the Green Party, and yeah,
they seem like it ever gains.

Speaker 1 (15:51):
Too much, it's never amounted too He'll be unfortunate, it's
been it's been.

Speaker 5 (15:54):
More polarizing, but on that Tesla earnings report, analysts were
expecting about seven hundred and sixty million for free cash flow.
They reported one hundred and forty six million, So they're
just burning through cash. I mean, that's a crazy stet
in this bout eighty percent.

Speaker 2 (16:09):
Did you see the Tesla diner?

Speaker 1 (16:11):
Yeah? Yeah, the Tesla diner in La. You want to
tell us bout especially very cool?

Speaker 2 (16:14):
Elon created a little diner outside of his Tesla manufacturing
plant and you can actually robots serve you food there,
and obviously a whole bunch of Tesla chargers for your
Tesla vehicles. Elon posted a meme of like a robot
coming out to serve your food, and then like an
old picture of like a sonic like a waitress doing

(16:37):
the same thing, and you know, the internet had a
field day with that one. But it's a it's really
it's it was a funny idea, and I heard the
genesis of the idea. It was just someone was like,
you should have a diner, and Elon was like, Okay.

Speaker 1 (16:49):
Yeah, I mean, Elon, really is it just an outside
the box thinker. I've had my Tesla for two years
and I just discovered the light show the other day
that I showed you, guys, if you have a friend
who has a Tesla, have him, have him do the light.

Speaker 2 (17:00):
Show stance mode.

Speaker 1 (17:01):
It's fine, it's just fun. It's and it's just strictly
for fun. There's there's no practical purpose for it other
than Elon's showing what he can do, yeah, which is
which is pretty cool. Global markets, China was up a
little over one percent last week, European market up about
two percent. Oil dropped two and a half bucks.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
I've been hearing a lot of reports about China's liquidity
injections and how that's been leading to some of these
commodity price increases that we've seen across the globe, especially
because of their huge economic footprint. When their economy prints money,
it leads to commodities across the world to increase, and
I think we've seen that as well as really with gold.
Gold didn't really have a great week. It was only

(17:42):
down about twelve bucks on the week, and it popped
earlier it looked like it was kind of breaking out,
but now it's come back down into a little bit
of a range.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
Sound about twenty bucks on the week, But it's been.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
Flagging for a while. I wouldn't be surprised to see
that thing kick off again. There certainly seems to be
a volatility event waiting for that space, and coined the
same thing. I think both have looked like they're just flagging,
waiting for some type of events.

Speaker 1 (18:04):
Happened before we leave the Tesla story. I was my
wife sent me to get gas in her car, which
is an internal combustion car, last week, and I drive
a Tesla, as most of you know, and I took
her car to the gas station and pulled up in
front of the pump and I got out and I
put the gas in and what is that noise? And I, oh,

(18:26):
the engine are running. I forgot to turn it off,
because you don't turn off a Tesla. And then she
had a couple of irons for me to run. So
I took her car on the arans I parked at
the store. I got out, I started to walk in
and I I think I forgot to turn it off again.
I went back, Ye shair and if it was still running,
and I go, oh, yeah, I gotta lock the door.
Where's the key? The Tesla locks automatically when you walk

(18:47):
away and unlocks automatically when you walk up, you're so lucky.
So so I guess on two different occasions, I forgot
to turn the engine off, was go in the store,
and then I had to unlock it, and I to
locket and I had to fill it with Yeah, I
know how you people do it. To be honest with you,
I'm you're you're braver than I am. Going first world
problem there, I tell you. It really sounds like it,

(19:08):
doesn't it. The bitcoin was flat on the week to
I had it kind of a volatile week for bitcoin,
but it ended up about where it started.

Speaker 2 (19:16):
Yeah, but yeah, it's still looking like it's flagging both commodities,
and there's been a lot like even lithium has been
a commandity has just been getting killed over the last
three years. But that space is up quite a bit
over the last two months. And uh nuclear just continues
to get a bid. That energy demand is real and
it's it's now that's needed. So we saw Oaklow go

(19:40):
absolutely crazy this week. There's more deals that's gonna be
made with with that company. There's another company, Uranium Energy
enrichmentd ue C is the ticker. All these names are
embedded into the ETF that we have a good amount
of clients in called NLR. It's a great way just
to play the nuclear and uranium space. But that whole

(20:02):
industry seems to really be taken off right now.

Speaker 1 (20:05):
Yeah, I think I was surprised. I hadn't looked at
the stock in a while, and it's really moved higher.
It really moved nicely higher.

Speaker 4 (20:12):
Nol Lar's been moving nicely since May, so quite a bit.

Speaker 1 (20:16):
It's steadily higher, doing what steadily higher?

Speaker 3 (20:19):
Yeah, it's about thirty dollars, you know, since.

Speaker 1 (20:21):
May, thirty dollars from ninety to one to twenty yep,
thirty three percent, but sixty days. Yeah, pretty pretty darn
strong move. Raytheon, speaking of strong moves right keeps ongoing
another new all time high. Company continued in. Also, I
think Trump being more interested in helping Ukraine would have
been might have been a part of that. Yeah. And

(20:41):
then I think that he keeps talking about the Golden
Dome thing, even though we have no money for it.
He keeps talking about it, and Raytheon of course, would
be a big beneficiary of any movement in that direction.

Speaker 5 (20:52):
And then you have Lockeyed Martin on the other side
just getting crushed. They were down ten percent off their earnings.
Did they released this week?

Speaker 1 (20:58):
Yeah, Well, you know you're talking about two but I
guess they're similar, but they're different, right, yeah, I mean
defense defense systems in the airplanes jets, all right, So,
and I understand Lockey Martin being down because they're trying
to cut spending on the government. Remember they canceled that
one jet program a few.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
Weeks ago, right, But the other side of that is Boeing, Right,
their jets are doing great because of trade deals. We
saw that with the British deal, and that really hit
the stock going. And Boeing's being killed for a long time,
and it's starting to seem like to get some legs here.
So it'd be interesting to see how Boeing goes over
the next time.

Speaker 1 (21:33):
And credit to Jim Kramer, who gets a lot of
crap from everybody. About sixty days ago, he said Boeing
is going to be one of the big beneficiaries of
these Trump trade talks. And absolutely what's happening. Absolutely what's happening.
You can make up for a lot of deficits by
buying one airplane.

Speaker 3 (21:50):
I mean we talked about that a lot.

Speaker 4 (21:51):
Companies like Boeing companies like g companies like United Healthcare,
because that's the one that's currently down quite a bit.
Boeing has been hit hard a couple different times in
the last five years. Those are those type of companies
that they tend to come back because they're so big.
It's the sense are they too big to fail? And
when you think about Boeing, it's really just Boeing and
Airbus are the two main companies, the two main competitors.

(22:12):
There's no other really big competitors when it comes to
making those type of airplanes. So if you're Boeing is
there's only a matter of time till it came back.
And I don't understand why there isn't more competition with airplanes.

Speaker 1 (22:27):
Startup cost, the startup cost, I mean think about like.

Speaker 4 (22:30):
For decades, well think it's only been a Boeing and
Airbus for a long time.

Speaker 2 (22:34):
I think a great example is Elon Musk. He got
into an industry of cars that everyone says you there's
no chance for any one to get in cars anymore,
they're too big, but he was able to do it barely.
And then he did the same thing with the missile industry,
Like that's SpaceX no one was able to really do it.
Virgin Galactic was trying, right, but they didn't really do
anything great until SpaceX came along, and then that whole

(22:57):
industry came out of that boom that they created. So
I feel like it's just along those lines.

Speaker 3 (23:03):
Yeah, no, I understand.

Speaker 4 (23:04):
It's just interesting that another company hasn't come along like
an Eelon must type company.

Speaker 1 (23:08):
Speaking of Elon his his health tech company in Neurolink,
did you guys happen to notice that the company labeled
itself a small disadvantaged business in a recent federal filing
with the US Small Business Administration, right truly before the
company around the financing the value of the company a
nine billion dollars small disadvantaged business obviously as a small

(23:32):
disadvantaged business fifty one percent owned or controlled by one
or more disadvantaged persons. So what are you on saying
about himself? Because I believe he has one hundred percent
of that company. So if the owner is fifty one
percent ownership is disadvantaged, then you can qualify for special things.
Musk is labeling that company as a small disadvantaged business,

(23:57):
so you know, the rich get richer, right? Sometimes I
guess it doesn't hurt to call yourself a disadvantaged business.
And it's also it's kind of like China, like chrying
to be in the emerging market.

Speaker 6 (24:09):
Nobody else is in that space.

Speaker 1 (24:10):
Yeah, well only at China. China is still considered an
emerging company country. Are you kidding me? Come on, you
know we'll be back with the rest of the Money
Matter Show. Thanks again for joining us on this Sunday morning.

Speaker 2 (24:22):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Todd Li Come here with David Sherwood, Sebastian Borssini, and
Dylan Greenberg. Another great week for the markets, ripping into
new all time highs. The dal Jones still lacks, though
a lot of people still to this day will how's
the dolls doing? Is dew gonna hit forty five thousand
and fifty thousand? We tell most people we don't follow
the doll fall. The S and P better representation of

(24:44):
the market.

Speaker 6 (24:45):
You got that question this week exactly.

Speaker 1 (24:47):
And again it's only thirty stocks, and they do a
pretty good job. They do a pretty good job of
mimicking the overall market. I mean, you're to date those
thirty stocks up five point five while the SMP the
up eight point six thanks close.

Speaker 6 (25:00):
And you have United Healthcare involved there.

Speaker 1 (25:02):
United Healthcare. And the problem with the thirty stock index
is if you have one stock and for a couple
of years it was Boying, and for a couple of
years it was three M and right now it's United Healthcare.
And of course you Dylan talked about Boying being irreplaceable virtually,
and you could say the same about three AM. They
have their fingers and dozens of different critical businesses, and

(25:24):
United Healthcare is the predominant medical insurer in the country.
They're not go anywhere. So if you have the patients
and United Healthcare has dropped from what six point fifty
was the high down to two eighty something like that,
it's amazing how far it's dropped down. The dividend if
they maintained the dividend's currently paid eight and a half percent.

Speaker 2 (25:45):
And if you look at the equo way to SMP,
it's very similar to the Dolls story if you look
at a chart, because it's not quite at all time
highs either, no, so very similar story. But the equal
way it did outperform all the other major indices this
and so that's a good sign of a broadening. We
were talking earlier in the week, me and you Dave
about the likelihood of small caps coming on, and it's

(26:08):
kind of a similar to what we see with the meme.
It's a new classification of stocks. But you start to
see at the end of a rally that maybe some
of the stocks that haven't performed, people are spreading money
into those names.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
I called it. I use the analogy vacation property. Vacation
property and real estate is always the last to go
up and the first to come down because it's as
residents as it's the last one you need is your
vacation home, right, I mean, you need your primary residence
first and then your vacation home. So if things are

(26:41):
getting tight and you want to get out of something,
it's going to be your vacation property. So those of
you that have vacation property, we are seeing in real
estate market take a little bit of a swoon here.
Don't be surprised to see your vacation property drop more
than your primary residence. That's just the way it goes.

Speaker 5 (26:58):
Well, you're saying United Healthcare has an attractive dividend, it's
got getting more attractive, while's gotten beat up. We are
not by any means recommending that stock because we don't
do that on the show. The show is sponsored by
the Green Brig Financial Group and you can listen on
seven ninety KNSC or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different investment
products and strategies, and every product and strategy have some
type of an inherent risk associated with it, and we
strongly encourage our listeners to properly understand the risk to

(27:22):
determine whether to buy, sell or hold. Show has been
on air for over thirty years and the Green Brik
Financial Group is registered with the SEC. Visit our website
at Greenbrik Financial dot com for some more information.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
Thank you.

Speaker 2 (27:33):
You know, obviously, yes, the housing industry has been taking
a hit, and it's because the mortgage rates are still
right there at the six point seven range. But the
ITB the ETF for the home construction ETF, that's actually
been doing all right for the last months of eight percent,
it's up six percent this last week. Some names like
KB Home got a big pop. We had other earnings

(27:54):
out of Poult and lenarso a little bit of life there,
but it's trading off of well off the all time house.

Speaker 1 (28:01):
Yeah, I think the bar was so low, right that
when they came out and they actually did have some
sales and some earnings, it's like, oh, well, maybe things
are going to be okay.

Speaker 5 (28:08):
The bar was so low and they were able to
take so much of that market share away from the
actual houses that are actually standing at this point because
they could offer you a lower rate, right, they got
offer you rate buy downs, and that's an easier way
for new home buyers to get into their first home.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
I happen to be in a area that a neighborhood
that's considered desirable. The houses don't go on the market,
they sell within twenty four hours and generally multiple bids.
There's only seventeen of them, so pretty rare to have
one come on the market. And we had one come
on the market about a month ago and it's still
in the market. Unheard of. I've been there thirteen years.

(28:43):
I've never seen that. There was another home that a
friend of mine owns, who has one of the literally
premier lots in La Paloma. It's a pie shaped corner
lot that looks out on the golf course in the city.
Spectacular market for six months, had to drop the price
already twice. So there just isn't much going on in

(29:06):
real estate right now, and it's not because of the heat.
People with children need to move during the summer, so
the heat isn't as big a factor as you would
think in that market. It's just mortgage rates todd to
hit on it. And a lot of Tucson's sales have
been driven by cash buyers from California who just aren't

(29:27):
coming right now. I said that wave has come and
they're here, and I have to look for look at
license plates and you'll see an awful lot of California
license plates around town and spattering you. Thanks for the disclaimer,
and once again you can't say it often enough. We're
not recommending any specific stock. We don't know your investment objectives,

(29:47):
we don't know your risk tolerance. If you would like
us to review that with you, we can, free of charge,
no pressure. Just give us a call five to zero
five four four four nine O nine. Always happy to
do that.

Speaker 2 (30:00):
So the story, biggest company in the economy right now
is Navidia over four trillion dollars, but me and Sebastian
we're doing some research into its competitor AMD and so
the question is is why is AMD so behind Navidia,
And the answer is not hardware. Actually, AMD has more powerful,

(30:22):
efficient GPUs and sometimes even better price to performance than
Navidia's chips. But the difference in the secret sauce that
Navidia has that AMD doesn't. It is called cut A CUDA,
and that's a proprietary software platform that lets developers write
code to run super fast on Nvidia's GPUs. It's been
around for over fifteen years and it's become the industry

(30:44):
standard and AI, deep learning, data science, HPC and more.
And that's what they teach the kids in universities that
are going to be building things on top of this.
AMD's alternative is called rock M and it's newer, less supported,
more limited and compatibility, and harder to use and debug
than Navidia's software. So even though AMD has the better chip,
Navidia has this cut A software that more people are

(31:06):
used to using and building things on top of. It's
kind of a like a network effect.

Speaker 1 (31:10):
Very interesting, and that is that that is their technology,
that is their VideA.

Speaker 5 (31:14):
Yeah, you could call the software and their proprietary software platform,
right and so use cases for this to actually put
an example in your mind is Tesla's self driving AI.
Amazon uses it for Alexis training, Okay, Meta uses for
their llm's large language models, and Netflix uses it for
the Recommendation Engine. Drug discovery firms run protein simulations using this,

(31:38):
and hedge funds crunch time series data with neutral nets.
So all these people are you know, big giant companies
are using this software CUTA. And so why would I
if I've already established this software, why am I going
to go back and use AMD's and start from base one?

Speaker 1 (31:52):
So if I understand you correctly that having the cutting
edge chip is secondary, yeah, to having software you can
run the cutting edge chip on.

Speaker 5 (32:02):
But I think I think the fact that in Vidia's
hardware was so far ahead of everybody else has led
them to get this software before anybody else.

Speaker 6 (32:10):
Could you know, lay it out.

Speaker 2 (32:12):
Everyone wanted to use cut it because they had the
best chip at the time, but now the AMD is better,
They're like, well, that doesn't actually matter to me because
I can build way more efficiently on this plan.

Speaker 3 (32:20):
So it does show that in video is not invincible.

Speaker 1 (32:23):
Though.

Speaker 4 (32:24):
There will be companies that catch up with this stuff,
and eventually those things will move over to them unless
in Vidia keeps stand ahead. But there's always going to
be competition that's trying to dethrone them.

Speaker 1 (32:35):
I will say this week with again the market moving
and higher every single day, and Video was stalled. But
that's after what a five percent jump last week?

Speaker 5 (32:45):
Oh well, it dropped like what three percent on was
a Monday, and then it just came right back.

Speaker 1 (32:50):
Yeah, because the week I think pretty close unchanged, which
was interesting because the Nasdaq was up, the S and
P was up, doll was up.

Speaker 5 (32:59):
Yeah, it's hard to see the network effect that the
company and video has as a consumer because we're not
constantly us as consumers. You know, we're not sitting at
home and building something on cut of the software platform.

Speaker 1 (33:10):
Yeah, we're not.

Speaker 5 (33:10):
We're not the network effect that you could see within
you know as a consumer.

Speaker 6 (33:14):
Is Apple's right.

Speaker 5 (33:15):
Everybody uses iOS, everybody uses their headphones or their AirPods
that connects with you know, it helps my find my iPhone.
I could put my friends on there. I could see that, but.

Speaker 4 (33:25):
It's not everybody. If you like Samsung's, you're gonna stick
to that ecosystem. So it's like new people coming out,
they might switch, they might start with AMD, because now
AMD has a more powerful chip, then they're gonna start
using their software in their ecosystem, right, and that's how
you can see a m D start getting the largest
share of that industry. Another one that's had a hard
week was Intel, which has just been having a rough

(33:45):
two years.

Speaker 3 (33:46):
They are up yere to date.

Speaker 4 (33:48):
They had They dropped nine percent last week in one
day after earnings, even though they reported good quarter two
earn revenue. They're just cost cutting, their workforce cutting. They're
doing everything try and get this company under control. The
new CEO who's been in there now for about six months,
he's trying to cut out the frivolous spending. They were

(34:09):
just spending on all these different foundaries, all these different fabs,
all this construction, and their workforce was hitting one hundred
thousand people. They're cutting it down to seventy five thousand
is their goal by the end of the year, which
they're almost there. They are cutting projects. They're not building
these fab projects, which are fabrication plants in Germany and Poland.

(34:30):
They stopped those projects. Theeing they're slowing down the one
in Ohio, even though that's supposed to be a big one.
They need to find a big partner who's going to
actually are a big consumer customer to sign that deal
with that foundry before they actually keep moving on with it.
The ones up in Phoenix will be done in twenty
twenty seven, so those are farther along, and those are

(34:51):
the ones that are going to be they're testing nodes
right now, which are little parts of the chips, so
they're making in like those are the they're making sure
it all can work. I guess that testing lasts for
a couple of years. But those plants up there are
going through, but it's still going to take some time.
And in the meantime, you're going to see a couple
back quarters because they're in a sense, trying to change
the trajectory of their company. They're no longer they gave

(35:13):
up on trying to compete with designing chips like with
Nvidia and AMD. Now they're going to try and be
more of a Taiwan semiconductor where they build the chips.

Speaker 5 (35:22):
For exactly That's exactly what I was gonna say. They're
gonna try rather than take market share away from AMD
and Video, they're going to be taking market share away
from the foundaries Taiwan Semi Conductor was.

Speaker 3 (35:31):
A huge one, a huge stronghold on that.

Speaker 1 (35:34):
Right now, we'll talk a little bit more about that
after this. Coming up on a break here, we'll be
back right after this with more of the Moneymatter Show.

Speaker 5 (35:42):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name Sebastian Bors,
seeing him here with David Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg, and Todd
Glick Junior. The last segments, we were talking a little
bit about micro chips, ended it off with Intel and
how they're going to be taking some of the market
share away from Taiwan Semi Conductor.

Speaker 1 (35:56):
I think the reason that the stock dropped nine percent
on Friday was that they're not only cutting the workforce
by fifteen percent and Dylan said ultimately twenty five percent,
but that they're going to cut back on their foundry
plans and we kind of thought maybe that was their future.

Speaker 4 (36:13):
They need to slow it down, though the CEO came
out and said they were just spending too much money.
He was out of control. So his way of doing
that is slow it down. They had plans planned for
Poland and Germany. They have the one in Ohio that's
already underway. He's slowing down how fast that's built. Like
I said in the previous segment, they need a big
customer to sign on to actually use that first, and
then that'll determine how fast they get that going. But

(36:34):
the European ones is not their main focus right now,
and he was saying those were just crazy spending and
they need to control themselves a.

Speaker 6 (36:42):
Bit, probably regulatory nightmares over there.

Speaker 4 (36:45):
I it's just, well, they changing, like we said, they're
changing the trajectory of their company and what they're what
they're gonna their new basis is gonna be.

Speaker 1 (36:53):
Yeah, I think the foundry business is where their future is.
And I don't know, maybe that was part of the
reason why they well it's sold off so much because
they said they're backing off on some of the founding
slowing down. I guess.

Speaker 4 (37:04):
Yeah, you'd expect it to have a rough year with
a new CEO changing the whole way works and everything
and changing their what Intel does.

Speaker 2 (37:13):
Another big company that reported this week was Google. Yeah,
a good week, and yeah, they did have a good week.
It seems like they've been just lagging because of all
the drama that they have in the legal courtroom. But
at the end of the day. It's such an attractive
business on many different channels that they have. I mean,
they have you two, they have Google Search with I

(37:34):
love the antidotes that Dave always gives about. He loves
AI mode on Google. So obviously they have a network
effect that people already use Google. I don't think they
have the best AI, but I do think they're going
to have potentially the one that's used the most just
because of they have the network effect on the search before.

Speaker 1 (37:54):
Yeah, I agree with you hundred percent there. When I
want something a little bit more sophisticated, I'll go to
Chat GPT. That is a better search engine. It's a
little bit it's not quite as huge a friendly I
don't think as the Google's is, and the Google AI
is is just white years above Google Google Search.

Speaker 2 (38:16):
Yeah, and it makes so much sense. Like I heard
one analyst talk about how we're gonna laugh at people
twenty years ago, like twenty years in the future, we're
gonna laugh at us. Look thinking like you actually went
to websites and had to click on each one and
find the information you are looking for, and like it's
like basically what we think about books going into the
library through trying to find the actual library on the

(38:40):
where it is on the shelf. Yeah, to go find
oh no, it's rented, I can't have it right now
in the little box.

Speaker 1 (38:47):
And find it alphabetically right, and then get a number
code and go find it on the shelf and yeah,
oh yeah, all I've done all that stuff absolutely.

Speaker 2 (38:57):
And I really am curious how some of these AI
companies like Google potentially stretch their arms into the educational
space because these seem like mini tutors, these AI bots,
and they could really help curiosity in kids, but also
just helping kids learn faster and quicker and in better ways.
Like sometimes a teacher can't find the way to anw

(39:19):
it and you know, have an analogy for something that
for a kid to make Oh I got it now.
But AI can do that. It can find a way
to explain something to you very simply and really cool analogies.
And so I think the possibilities are endless in the
educational field. That's something that we haven't really talked about
or no one seems to be talking about, and that
could be a huge government subsidized project.

Speaker 5 (39:40):
I would say, well, they're gonna have to restructure the
whole education system. It seems it seems right.

Speaker 2 (39:46):
Yeah, ten years from now, I don't see how the
current educational system could hold on.

Speaker 1 (39:49):
The public education is a struggle because the people with
money are all going to private schools, and that leads
the public schools with just people that don't have money.

Speaker 4 (39:57):
I mean, education has to dive into leaning into the
AI revolution.

Speaker 3 (40:02):
They can't avoid it. Kids are gonna use it.

Speaker 4 (40:05):
Kids are gonna use it on their homework, on the test,
on the way they study, the way they learn, So
that you should lean into it rather than not want
to use it.

Speaker 1 (40:13):
And that last statement was not meant to condone private schools.
I'm just definitely making a statement of fact.

Speaker 2 (40:17):
Yeah, and then public schools get their funding from the government, right,
I mean, that's what this is going to come from.
And there's an interesting podcast I listen to from Sam Altman,
that's the CEO of Open AI, and he was talking
about what happens when a super intelligent AI starts coming
up with all the ideas. Does that company have to
share those ideas with the public because they just get

(40:38):
too big that they have all the answers. I mean,
they got to be able to share those answers with society,
because all society has to be able to benefit off
of it. So there's a really interesting question that comes
about of who's going to be in control of this.
What happens when they reach almost godlike potential in what
some think is likely and then.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
Google what happens? You get an knock on the door
and his uncle Sam and he wants to talk. So
you know, we're a company that is excuse me, a
country that is very much in favor of being people
being successful to a point. You know, when you get
to be too successful, whether Elon Musk or Bill Gates

(41:19):
or John d. Rockefeller, Yeah, that's not going to work out.
Funny story about John d. Rockefeller. He had this golf course,
and the golf course was the players were always being
distracted because of a train that went right by the
golf course. So he bought a town five miles from

(41:40):
the golf course, relocated everyone in the town, and re
routed the train where the town was. You know, that's
what happens when you have all the money you need.

Speaker 3 (41:49):
Right, Yeah, he had what two percent of the US GDP.

Speaker 1 (41:54):
Yeah by a town, Luther, no problem bothering you. We'll
take care of that. He speaking of which ibmen falling ibmboy,
They got clobbered another doll stock that helped the Dow
lag a little bit last week. One of the top
stocks in the Dow was up twenty five percent for
the year, down eight percent at the open on Thursday.

(42:14):
Despite a strong quarter, The company reported below consensus revenue
and gross margins in the software business, which to me
sounds like somebody's looking for a reason to take a profit.
Somebody's looking for a reason to say, oh, yeah, we
got to sell that. You got a twenty five percent gain.
How do I book that game? Oh, this is bad news.

(42:35):
You having to look under the rock and behind the trees.

Speaker 5 (42:38):
Because they still raised its forecast for the four year
for you cash flow, which is really good for the revenue.

Speaker 1 (42:43):
It was a good report. You really honestly had to
be looking under rocks and behind trees to find anything
wrong with that report, and they found it. And again
just a reason for money managers to book big gains
and not be second guests. Well, oh well you didn't
see their margins are down. That's we had to get out.
You know where is that going to go?

Speaker 2 (43:04):
You knows? Switch gears a little bit to financial planning.
And I had a conversation with my dad yesterday and
kind of brought to light, and he's he has a
solar loan that he's paying off quicker than he needs
to be, and it's around three percent, and he wants
to pay it off because he's like, well, if I
have less cash flow, then I can use that money
to pay into more investments. And I was telling his

(43:26):
reasoning isn't quite right because that extra money that he's
putting to solar right now could be putting into investment
account that will average likely eight percent, probably ten if
it's just in the S and P five hundred, like
it has going back over one hundred years. So the
idea of me explaining it to him was, think about
how businesses work. And people always talk about how businesses

(43:48):
always get the benefit of the dial they owe it.
But there's a reason businesses are able to grow so fast.

Speaker 1 (43:55):
They use leverage.

Speaker 2 (43:56):
And in an era over the last forty years, we've
been in an economy that has actually benefited You have
been benefited if you have leverage, not an irresponsible amount
of leverage, but having leverage helped you because you could
keep refinancing into lower and lower rates. That's why people
who bought real estate forty years ago was able to

(44:16):
build entire empires and after forty years because of that
leveraging effect of rates going from eighteen percent to two.
And it makes a lot of sense because my dad
grew up with parents that were in that eighteen percent era,
so it made a lot of sense to pay off
your mortgage or pay off any loan that's high, because
you're not going to beat eighteen percent. Correct, But now

(44:37):
they're in a completely different era. But they're still living
with that education that was brought to them from their parents.
But we live in a completely different environment. And so
a lot of the times when people come into our
financial plans anywhere, you know people anywhere from forty to sixty,
they're very gun home paying off debts. And that's fine
if it's a bad debt, or any debt that you

(44:58):
know is probably more than five percent, But anything below
five a real discussion should be had of whether the
opportunity costs you you're making is worth it, of what
you could be getting on that money rather than just
that guaranteed return of less than five percent.

Speaker 1 (45:13):
I've got a mortgage. A small mortgage in my house
is two and three eight. I refinanced it when the
rates hit the bottom two and three eighths thirty year
fixed or fifteen year fixed two and three eighths. Why
would I pay that off? Let's say it's one hundred
thousand dollars. If I had one hundred thousand dollars to
pay it off, wouldn't I put that one hundred thousand

(45:34):
dollars and I can put in a double a corporate
bond get four and a quarter.

Speaker 2 (45:37):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (45:37):
If you're thinking economically, yeah, I'm making two percent on
somebody else's money. Yeah, So it makes no sense. And Todd,
that's a very good point. Could you do hear that
I'm going to take this money and pay it off.
I had a gal that is moving from Wilcox to Python,
and she lives in a double white mobile home in
Wilcox that she's selling for two hundred thousand dollars. I

(46:00):
was shocked that they're that expensive. And she's buying an
older double white and patent for one hundred and fifty
thousand dollars. And she thought maybe she'd put one hundred
thousand dollars down and get a fifty thousand dollars mortgage. Well,
I don't know if you're going to get prime rate
on a mobile home. Probably not. So it's not seven,
it's probably closer to eight or nine. I said, So
you by putting that additional fifty thousand dollars, by paying

(46:23):
cash for the new property, you're essentially investing that fifty
thousand dollars at eight or nine percent. You can't get
eight or nine percent on anything. Why would you? Why
would you pay that off? So you're right, Todd, it's
the cost of money, the expense of money. Really. The
other side of that is the peace of mind as

(46:45):
you get into your sixties and seventies, there's a peace
of mind of having the house free and clear. Even
though that just gets rid of the principle and interest.
It doesn't get rid of the taxes and insurance. It
only gets rid of about two thirty of your payment.

Speaker 5 (46:57):
There's a huge side to our industry, and it's called
behavioral economics, and a lot of people don't take that
into account. And when you actually bring that up to
them and say, hey, why are we paying a three
percent loan off? It makes really, you know, intuitive sense
to not be doing that and put the money in
the market instead. Right, But some people don't have an
advisor to tell them that.

Speaker 1 (47:13):
Well, and not only that, but the peace of mind.
The peace of mind is worth something. And so we'll
be back with the second half of The Money Matter
Show after this break. Thanks for joining us. You can't
go outside anyway, might as well be listening to us.

Speaker 4 (47:25):
Welcome back to the second hour the Money Matters Show.
I'm here with Dave Sherwood's bashingboard seeing Todd Glick, and
I'm Dylan Greenberg. Dean Greenberg is back in his fiftieth
high school reunion.

Speaker 1 (47:35):
You told him the number I told them.

Speaker 3 (47:37):
That's amaze. It's a good milestone to hit. You're able
to go back to your fiftieth reunion. That is awesome,
by the way, but don't make it.

Speaker 1 (47:46):
You're ready for this. My wife's fiftieth anniversary or fiftieth
class reunion was on my birthday, the exact day, and
her fifty fifth was on my birthday. What are the odds?

Speaker 3 (47:58):
Crazy? What are the odds of that?

Speaker 1 (48:00):
What a great way to celebrate your Birthday've been around
your wife and all her boyfriends, right, I mean, come on,
that's that's like Nick Saban's wife, Nick Saban, and is
married to his high school sweetheart and the coach of Alabama.
And they went back to their hometown, which is rural
West Virginia. And a lot of people don't know Todd
listening here that don't know who he is, but he's

(48:22):
pretty well known. And they're from a small town in
West Virginia. And they went back to West Virginia to
visit this small town and Nick happened to observe one
of his wife's former boyfriends pumping gas and he says
to his wife, if you were married to him, you'd
be married to a guy that's pumping Yeah, she goes, No,

(48:43):
if I was married to him, he'd be the coach
of Alabama. Pretty good to come back, right.

Speaker 4 (48:50):
We got ten most unaffordable housing markets in the world.
Take a guess what number one is.

Speaker 1 (48:55):
Number one would be Paris.

Speaker 4 (48:58):
What did you say there's the ten most unaffordable housing
markets in the world. What would you think the most
unaffordable housing market.

Speaker 3 (49:05):
Is in the world. What's city?

Speaker 6 (49:07):
Los Angeles?

Speaker 3 (49:09):
What did you said done New York City, Hong Kong
in the world.

Speaker 4 (49:13):
Sure, you got five US cities in here though, So
half the top ten is in the US. You got
Los Angeles, Honolulu, San Francisco, San Diego, San Jose, so
they're all in.

Speaker 1 (49:22):
San Diego was in the top five.

Speaker 3 (49:24):
Yep, for the five or top ten.

Speaker 1 (49:26):
That's amazing. I know San Diego is pricey, but I
didn't think for the.

Speaker 4 (49:30):
Five in the US or in California alone. And then
you have Honolulu.

Speaker 1 (49:35):
You do not want to be on no.

Speaker 2 (49:37):
And that's so interesting about Honolululu because the one time
I went to Hawaii, the homeless there was so surprising.
I was like, how'd you guys get here? But it
makes sense because if you get there and then you
don't make it, you don't make enough money to live,
you can't pay enough for the ticket back to the mainland.

Speaker 1 (49:52):
If if you're a vagrant any anywhere except California, I
think you're just an idiot because calif Fifornia loves their vagarans.
They embrace them, they give them what too. Yeah, nice weather.

Speaker 4 (50:05):
Here's another. Here's another. Top ten retirees that are fleeing
US cities. What do you think the number one city
is that people are leaving? So they're over sixty and
most of the cities require at least a million dollars
to retire.

Speaker 1 (50:17):
Los Angeles, Orange County, New York.

Speaker 4 (50:22):
You got that one right. New York is the number
one with the most people over sixty leaving. Then you
got Los Angeles, then San Diego, and then DC. What
about Chicago's number eight, San Jose's nine. The interesting one
was number ten. It was Anchorage, Alaska.

Speaker 1 (50:36):
What.

Speaker 4 (50:37):
Yeah, that was interesting, but it's interesting, also interesting that
a lot of similarities between the most unaffordable housing markets
and the most people leaving that are sixty and over
are similar cities.

Speaker 3 (50:48):
A lot of them are in California. They just can't
afford it.

Speaker 1 (50:50):
Speaking of New York City, Mario Cuomo's decision to continue
in the race for mayor even though he lost the
Democratic primary. You could do that pretty much. Yeah, you
run it's an independent. Oh and uh. This fight was
the prime and makes it almost a near certainty to
America's largest city where the largest Jewish population in the
country is going to be run by a socialist who
disliked it.

Speaker 4 (51:12):
Go figure, liked the idea of what he's doing, even
though didn't he isn't he from a wealthy family with
a nice apartment that he said he wants to get
rid of all those.

Speaker 1 (51:21):
Giving away everything. Right, you get free everything, free everything
is this shows you, It goes to show you how
far free stuff goes gets you elected mayor of New
York City. Yeah, you promised enough free stuff. Student loans,
you know, student loans have been a problem. We hear
a lot about student loans. I liked we It seems
like every week we give up some new thing about

(51:42):
this big beautiful bill comes out. It's all one last week.
The cap that students can borrow from the federal government.
Excuse me, the amountain is going to be caps starting
in July first of next year. So one way to
keep student loans from getting out of hand is to
keep the amount they borrow down.

Speaker 3 (52:00):
Yeah what the CAP's going to be about two hundred
fifty thousand.

Speaker 1 (52:02):
Yeah, no, it's it's a good high it's a good
high cap.

Speaker 3 (52:05):
But a good idea. But yeah, the college is going
to do now.

Speaker 4 (52:07):
They're gonna have to start lowering their prices because how
are people going to go to college if they can't
take out five hundred thousand dollars worth of loans?

Speaker 1 (52:14):
And one of the things I thought about is maybe
this will drive more people into the trades, which this
country needs more than pretty much anything.

Speaker 3 (52:22):
Which I'm sure it will.

Speaker 4 (52:24):
Trades seem to be more popular nowadays too, and I'm
sure it's gonna keep getting more popular because it's cheaper,
you get better paying job, quicker, yeah, and it's.

Speaker 3 (52:31):
You have less debt.

Speaker 4 (52:33):
Also, speaking of that, there's the big beautiful bill that
we keep finding new things in there. Five twenty nine
plans have been revamped where now they used to just
be for a lot of it was for higher education.
It was mainly for college expenses only. You could use
up to ten thousand a year for K through twelve.
Now you can do twenty thousand a year K through twelve.

(52:53):
You can still use it for higher education. Now it
works for trade schools, trade schools, homeschooling, curriculum stuff. It's
broadened by a lot of what you can use your
five to twenty nine money from. So it's it's getting
a lot more use out of it rather than before.
I mean, they weren't the most popular thing nowadays because
there's other avenues.

Speaker 6 (53:12):
But you could have paid for your CFP certification exam
with the exactly.

Speaker 1 (53:16):
Yeah, I think the five twenty nine plans. The biggest
problem with them is they were so restrictive.

Speaker 3 (53:21):
That's what I'm certain, or not so much anymore.

Speaker 1 (53:23):
But n if you let's say you set up a
five twenty nine plan for your daughter and she decides
not to go to college, then you have to use
that money for some other kids college, or you.

Speaker 4 (53:37):
Can still roll it to you can still roll up
to thirty five thousand dollars for your lifetime. They'll probably
increase that number into a roth Ira in that kid's
name after fifteen years of having.

Speaker 1 (53:46):
Those Is that new from the BBB?

Speaker 3 (53:47):
No, that's from a couple of years ago.

Speaker 1 (53:48):
Okay, Yeah, that was the thing that five twenty nine
plans would be. If you need to set up an
account for your kid with more than the limit gifting
limit which is nineteen thousand, actually you and your wife
can give thirty eight thirty eight.

Speaker 3 (54:05):
Yep.

Speaker 4 (54:06):
Also you can still gift were still gift more and
you can still put that in. Yeah, the five twenty
nine that's a nice thing. And then people do need
it for college, and it is something to think about,
especially with loans getting capped. But it's getting more friendly
with this new bill nine point.

Speaker 1 (54:24):
Yeah, I don't know that. I don't honestly don't know
how you would Why would you ever needed on.

Speaker 6 (54:28):
That's what I was going to say.

Speaker 5 (54:29):
We would never open up at five twenty nine for
nobody back.

Speaker 1 (54:32):
No, because they're run by they're run by states. And
then and there's a limited investment off do and you
can gift thirty eight thousand dollars a year, and Todd
you said something about more than that.

Speaker 2 (54:43):
Yeah, people, we get this question all the time, and
there's just confusion around it. You have a lifetime exclusion
max that you're allowed to give over your lifetime right
of money. The exclusion that you're allowed to give each
year is just saying the amount of money you can
give without that eating away into the life time max.
You're allowed to give to other individuals. So you can
give seventeen thousand, don't have to report it nineteen nineteen,

(55:06):
Oh okay, sorry, yes, So the minute you're going over that,
that's when the IRS wants to know, because say you
gave twenty, that extra thousand is going to get deducted
off your pot.

Speaker 1 (55:13):
So are you nineteen without reporting it? Right?

Speaker 3 (55:16):
And I think you still report it? You just tell
them no, you don't report it. You don't at all.

Speaker 4 (55:20):
No.

Speaker 1 (55:20):
Yeah, in fact, there's no reporting mechanism really.

Speaker 2 (55:25):
And so that's that's the one interesting caveat about lifetime exclusion.
And I think it's twelve point five million something like that.

Speaker 4 (55:35):
But it's like thirteen point six point six. No, this
is the exclusion lifetime lifetime gifted exclusion.

Speaker 1 (55:42):
That's probably the estate tax limit, right.

Speaker 4 (55:44):
I thought it's thirteen point six. Now for the married,
you know, John, No, for single.

Speaker 3 (55:51):
Married here married.

Speaker 2 (55:53):
Is twenty six okay, And so if you go over
you have the file something.

Speaker 3 (56:02):
Thank you John from the distance.

Speaker 1 (56:05):
Thank you John.

Speaker 5 (56:05):
Appreciate that you get super fund A five twenty nine right, correct, Okay, five.

Speaker 4 (56:11):
Years they exclude nineteen thousand and then whatever you do
above it's.

Speaker 1 (56:15):
A that's a lot of money. There are not very
many people out there that need to give that kind
of money.

Speaker 2 (56:20):
Another way we've talked to clients is if you have
a trust, you just create a trust account and then
the trust you can just specify that this account is
going to be used for a certain purpose and then
you can just have full control over it. And then
if the kid doesn't end up doing what you want,
or you don't want to give it in the future,
it's still your asset. You can just amend the trust.
Change the perfect.

Speaker 1 (56:40):
Problem with ugments, so uniforget to minor, uniform trust to
minor five twenty nine, it ultimately ends up being the kids.
You don't have control of that, and if the kid
turns out to be not what you'd hoped, it's still
the kid's money.

Speaker 4 (56:52):
Well, that's what the Uniform Trust the Miners Act. In
the Uniform Gift of Minors Act, you can those automatically
become theirs at age eighteen or twenty one, depending on
what state you're in. Right five twenty nine, you can
still have your control over it because if the kid
doesn't go to school, you can rename the beneficiary. That's interesting,

(57:13):
you can you can move that five to twenty nine.
So say sebastianan Toddter brothers. Todd's older, he doesn't need
the money. He ends up not going to school or
going to college.

Speaker 3 (57:22):
He doesn't need it. It's just sitting there.

Speaker 4 (57:23):
You can now make the beneficiary Sebastian, and he can
use that money for college.

Speaker 1 (57:28):
What I've experienced in my time in this business is
generally ten fifteen thousand dollars accounts, and with those size accounts,
I typically say just open up a joint account with
your wife, call it a call it an educational account,
and you end up paying the taxes, but you also
control the assets.

Speaker 6 (57:45):
Well you can do with it.

Speaker 1 (57:46):
Yeah, so if it works out, if things work out
with your child, you can help with the college. If
they don't work out, the child decides to go into
a trade or or he's living on the street, then.

Speaker 4 (57:57):
The only thing with that to remember is that with
that you have to deal with capital gains, which over
an eighteen year period you will have most likely you
should have if.

Speaker 3 (58:05):
You have it in good skit.

Speaker 4 (58:06):
Yeah, yeah, no, I don't think it's a waste of money,
but you should deal with capital gains. If you have
the five to twenty nine and it's used for qualified expenses,
you will not have it's tax free. That's just a
caveat to know. If you put it in a taxable
account and you sell your fund to pay for their college,
you will deal with capital gains on your end, but
it doesn't get put onto the kid's name. There's like
five twenty nine up ugmas. They're at all under the

(58:28):
kid's name. So if they go to apply for federal
aid for college, the Federal Aid Bureau will take into
account their assets, which include five twenty nine ut MUSS
and UGMUS.

Speaker 1 (58:42):
With most accounts, like if say a ten thousand dollars account,
if you have it over a seven eight year period
and it becomes twenty thousand dollars, you got two thousand
dollars with attack, So you're paying two thousand dollars to
have control of the asset. It's just a trade off.

Speaker 5 (58:55):
Yeah, But now with all these new stipulations are becoming
a lot more attractive. As you know, the hand us
are releasing a little bit.

Speaker 1 (59:01):
I'm talking about just a joint account as versus.

Speaker 6 (59:05):
I know we're talking about new stip.

Speaker 2 (59:08):
And I'm still on nine are limited on investment options,
so there's a different caveat there as well in trade offs.
So and there's always gonna be that in financial products,
you're gonna have trade offs. But one trade off we
never want any client to make. And it's always a
pet peeve when clients come in and we see this
is large amounts of cash sitting in a checking account
making no interest. There's plenty of money markets out there

(59:30):
still over three percent. The one we use here at
the firm is called Vanguard Money Market vmf x X,
and that's still around four percent. These are money markets
that are completely able to be liquid the next day
transfer to your bank account. It's not something that you're
locking away like a CD.

Speaker 1 (59:49):
Now.

Speaker 2 (59:49):
The rate's not guaranteed. It's a fluctuating rate. If the
Federal Reserve drops rate next week, that rate's gonna drop
the following week. But it is a rate that's gonna
be quadruple, sometimes way more than what you're getting in
your checking account. And we have people that you know
have for even business checking accounts. It's like you can
have a business money market. And we did this with

(01:00:09):
the nonprofit I serve on and just simply they had
too much money sitting in the checking they put it
in the Vanguard. Now they have another grant that it
was just funded because of the interests made off of that.
That was the opportunity costs that was lost if they
didn't do that. So a lot of this is just
us pleading you. There's nothing, no incentive for us. There's
no money that we make off of it, just that

(01:00:30):
we feel that you are getting taken advantage of by
the bank because of convenience factor. You can simply just
open another account, electronically connect that to your bank account
when you need it, transfer it to your operating side,
but while you're not being an operating take advantage of
the high interest.

Speaker 1 (01:00:45):
Yeah. I don't know why business bank accounts don't earn interest,
but they don't they're not allowed to, or their banks
have all teamed up and said, let's not pay these
people anything. It's one of the strangest things that I
I can't explain it.

Speaker 6 (01:01:01):
Well, the bank wants to make the interest off the money.

Speaker 1 (01:01:03):
Well, of course I can understand why the bank wouldn't
want to pay interest, But why would all the banks
not pay interest unless it was some kind of a regulation.
And if there is a regulation, why is there a regulation?
And so that's something that something I'll have to google
and get back down next week.

Speaker 2 (01:01:16):
But some of that is I feel like just a
convenience factor. They know they can get away with it.
It could be, you know, there's so much money in
there that's not moving. What's the incentive for them to
offer interest rate if money isn't fleeing.

Speaker 1 (01:01:27):
If they don't, it's kind of like every single IRA custoitions,
every single the vast majority of IRA custodiums charge an
annual fee for their services. Well what did they do? Nothing?
Why did they charge an annual fee because they can't
can right? And so they do some documents? Right? Yeah?
Could they keep the theory when that first started, that

(01:01:47):
first started probably twenty five years ago. The theory was
that while it were charged with keeping all of your
records up to date, okay, whatever, you know, whatever, and
it just became perse if everybody does it, and it's
because they can't. It's kind of like the W nine.
You know. W nine has no serves, no purpose on

(01:02:08):
this earth. But it was put in in the nineteen
eighties when the government tried voted this trial balloon about
taxing dividends and interest as they were paid. And you
can imagine the pushback on that and the government to say, faces, okay,
but you have to find this document W nine. What

(01:02:28):
purpose does a W nine service? W nine? Is you
certifying that your tax ID number that you're putting on
the sheet is in fact accurate. Haven't you already signed
the application for the loan, the application for the new account,
haven't you already signed that that tax ID number under
penalty of law is correct.

Speaker 6 (01:02:49):
You want less paperwork?

Speaker 1 (01:02:50):
The W nine serves absolutely No. I don't know if
you no purpose on this planet and you've got deals
that can't go through because they're missing at W nine,
are you serious, it's a great.

Speaker 2 (01:03:03):
Time to call us and set up that financial planning meeting.
We have some availability into this. Late summer always gets
a little slow. Tucson seems to dry up a little bit,
you know, literally and metaphorically. But right now, it's just
what we're seeing right now is no one seems to
be fearful, and it's reminiscent of past times, and then

(01:03:26):
we'll have some market drop and people get fearful. This
is a good time to revisit that risk tolerance.

Speaker 1 (01:03:30):
There are no sellers right now. There just are no sellers.
Everybody is afraid of missing out. Everybody is afraid to
wake up Monday morning and Trump's got a European deal
and the market's up five percent and there is no
fear right now. Everything is go, go go. The VIX,
the fear index the low for the year. Does that

(01:03:52):
mean this market is done going higher? Calling market tops
is a fool's game. You know you can't. What was
the thing? Greenberg said, the market this goes back twenty years.
Alan Greenberg, Greenberg, green Span, green Span, thank you. Alan
Greenspan said the market was experiencing irrational exuberance. Well guess what,

(01:04:15):
it went about fifteen percent higher after that. So the
market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.

Speaker 2 (01:04:23):
Right, But if you are a client who's made significant
amount with this run up, and you're at a point
where saying, maybe locking in a guaranteed five percent return
is more my risk tolerance at this point, there's vehicles
to move into right now for that. I mean there's
a lot of We had one client who said, I
just want to take fifty thousand out of my iray

(01:04:45):
and do a fixed income alternative with a MAGA and
put that fifty k and just lock it away and
get five point two guaranteed for the next five years.
A lot of people be okay with that return. Yes,
And another thing you have to think about if you're
an investor is saying, if we are at all time highs,
I know I've made my return, But if I lock
it in and just get a five percent for the
next five years versus playing the game of where the

(01:05:06):
investments might go over the next five years. What's the
hindsight of your emotions if it does drop are you
are you just kicking yourself for not gutting yourself in
Amiga or you just knowing that it's going to come back. Obviously,
that depends on your time horizon, depends on your risk tolerance.
But people need to revisit it when you hit the
end zone. That's where we are right now. Everyone's super excited,

(01:05:27):
everyone's partying. Make sure you're deciding if you're going to
be the first one to leave the party or not,
because once everyone decides to leave the party, you're not
gonna be able to get out the door.

Speaker 1 (01:05:37):
I had an eighty five year old client call me
last week and he said he was uncomfortable. And I said,
why are you uncomfortable? Because because the market's gone up
so far so fast, He said, I'm uncomfortable. He's a
conservative investor. He has sixty percent equity forty percent fixed income.
And I said, what would make you more comfortable. He said,
taking some money out of the market. I said, what
amount do you want to take out of the market?

(01:05:59):
And he goes, oh, maybe twenty percent. I said, okay,
we'll buy ten percent fds. Sam David Sam. Ten percent
sds essentially gives you twenty percent had you against the
market done. Then it doesn't result in his having to
sell a lot of stocks generate a bunch of capital gains.

(01:06:21):
He has the insurance policy and if the market were
to continue to go higher and he became less fearful,
he could always just sell the sds. If the market
started to fall off, the sds will appreciate and he
can pick a point where he's saying, Okay, that's the
ten percent correction I was looking for on my ten percent,
I just made a nice pile of money there, and

(01:06:43):
let's go ahead and take that gain and a way
we go to the upside again, so you don't have
to blow everything up.

Speaker 2 (01:06:49):
And we also have structure protected ets that if you
have good gains and you want to participate in the
market going forward, but you're worried about potential volatility, you
can put that in to the structured ETF that is
designed to protect you on the downside, but can give
you participation up to a cap of around seven percent.
Right now, on the S and P sometimes higher on

(01:07:11):
the small cap index, and they even have one on
bitcoin and things like that, and that's a way to
participate in some of these volatile markets going forward without
experiencing all the risk associated with them. So there's a
lot of unique products that we're looking at, and as
well as we're just guaranteed income products. We've helped quite
a bit of clients recently get income withdrawal rates that

(01:07:33):
seem like no that we've never seen before.

Speaker 1 (01:07:36):
Dave.

Speaker 2 (01:07:36):
I mean, you've been in this industry for over forty years,
you know what the withdrawal rates are usually like with annuities.
But when we strip out some of these commissions and
all the commissions and their advisory annuities, the whole product
is completely changed.

Speaker 1 (01:07:52):
Yeah. The move, the move we recently made from broker
from a broker dealer to a registered investment advisor and
just in a nut shell broker dealer can do fee
based business or commissions. Registered investment advisor fee based only.
So the annuities that we're dealing with now are for
fee based advisors only, and like Todd's, strips out a

(01:08:13):
lot of the cost and these payout ratios that were
seen and by payout ratios, I mean how much the
insurance company is willing to guarantee you monthly for the
rest of your life are higher than I've ever seen,
higher than I've ever seen. So if that's something that
appeals to you. Let's say that I was talking to

(01:08:34):
a gal the other day. Let's say your husband passed
away and he's left you with less money than you
had hoped and you need that money to produce higher
income than you thought was necessary. You can use that
product that Todd just talked about, and Todd for someone
in their seventies, you can get seven seven to eight

(01:08:55):
percent on that money, paid monthly for the rest of
your life.

Speaker 2 (01:09:00):
Other example is if you have, you know, a million dollars,
you could take half of that five hundred put it
into this guarantee product that's going to be paying you
out that guaranteed withdrawal rate for the entirety of both
you and your spouse. But then the other five hundred
can be more equity, so you almost have like a
hybrid portfolio of the annuity acting as your fixed income
alternative and then the stocks just acting as they are,

(01:09:22):
allowing it to be more aggressive as well. With having
the guarantee on the other side.

Speaker 1 (01:09:27):
Yeah, the investment portfolio that is on your line, that
can can definitely be more aggressive because it doesn't matter, right,
I mean, it goes to zero, you still get your
monthly check for the rest of your life. So it's
a It truly is an annuity in the true sense
of the word. Yeah. So there's a lot of options
out there. If you have a limited amount of assets

(01:09:48):
and need that those assets to produce the maximum amount
of income you need to come see it.

Speaker 2 (01:09:54):
Yeah, And when you're retiring and you're saying, oh, I
got all this money in my form K, how do
I turn this into a monthly income check on top
of my Social Security. That's one way to do it. Obviously.
Another way to do it is we're money managers. We
can just keep all the money liquid in house and
give you a standard with a draw rate to four percent,
and we can just grow the money over time. But
there's different trade offs at different points. If you have

(01:10:16):
high withdrawal rates, if you have certain wants for guarantees,
if you want certain liquidity, then one product's going to
suit you better or not. So that's why we always
have that financial plan for all of any client or
just prospect that wants to come in and see what
we're all about. It's completely free of charge. We'll send
you an email what you need to gather, and then
you come in. We'll do a financial plan. The next meeting,

(01:10:37):
we'll give you a proposal of our recommendations and suggestions,
and you can decide if you want to do business
with us. But at no point is there any obligation.
There's no cost to do this, so even if it's
just a second review.

Speaker 1 (01:10:48):
It literally works that way. You and Deal and a
Sebastian team you work in too typically meet with the people.
You've given them the email telling them essentially what they
need to bring with them. You bring it in there,
you're in there for about an hour, seems to be
the average. The client, the prospect leaves. You then put

(01:11:08):
up the put together the financial plan. They come back
in and say, here's if we were you with your circumstances,
here's what we would do, and that's it. That's the
end of it. Do it or don't do it, And
if you want to involve us in helping you do it,
we'd be more than happy to. But that's not the purpose.
The purpose is education. Hopefully during the education process you

(01:11:31):
like us, you like what we do, you like what
we know, and you decide to become a client. But
there's never, like Todd said, there's never an obligation. We're
not going to beat into submission. We're not going to
dog in until you die. So we'll be back with
the next two segments right after this message. Thanks again
for joining us. Good morning, Welcome back to the Money
Matter Show. This is Dave Sherwood. We're talking about all

(01:11:53):
kinds of good things here. Dean's out of town this week.
At is fiftieth dyll and let the cat out of
the bag. His fiftieth high school reunion. I was going
to say, a high school reunion of not disclosing you look.

Speaker 4 (01:12:05):
At it as a bad thing. Like I said before,
it's a milestone. That's you just told everybody how.

Speaker 1 (01:12:10):
Old he is.

Speaker 2 (01:12:10):
That's how old were you at your fiftieth adiversar?

Speaker 1 (01:12:13):
I don't remember.

Speaker 6 (01:12:14):
Oh, come on, you know.

Speaker 1 (01:12:15):
How old was I by fiftieth? I've never been to
a class reunion in my life.

Speaker 3 (01:12:19):
How old would that year?

Speaker 1 (01:12:20):
How old would I have been on my fiftieth sixty seven?

Speaker 3 (01:12:25):
You're about to hit your seventies or your sixtieth.

Speaker 1 (01:12:29):
I don't want to hear it. I don't want to
hear it. I stopped counting. That was part of the deal.
That's a age is just as long as you got
your health and your energy and your active It's just
a numbers.

Speaker 5 (01:12:40):
You know that most people are either sixty seven or
sixty eight.

Speaker 1 (01:12:44):
Really when what when they have their fiftieth class reunion? Yep, gee,
that's really shocking. You know, two stocks that everybody loves,
they can't get out of their own way in a
strong market rally, Costco and Netflix. Kind of interesting. Costco

(01:13:07):
is literally one of everybody's favorites, down twelve percent in
the last five months. And here's what struck me last week.
After being down twelve percent in five months, an executive
VP of Costco decides to dump forty percent of his stock.
Forty percent of his stock? What do you know, right?

(01:13:28):
I mean, it just seems like a very odd place
for an executive VP to dump forty percent of the
stock after twelve percent decline. Insider selling can be done
for a variety of reasons, but this one did catch
my attention fifty two times.

Speaker 5 (01:13:43):
Earnie, Well, wait a second, you got the report that
he sold it after the twelve percent drop, because I'm
pretty sure that.

Speaker 6 (01:13:49):
There's Yeah, so maybe he was selling into that drop.

Speaker 1 (01:13:52):
Oh maybe the last couple of percent. But they're pretty
timely on those reports.

Speaker 6 (01:13:56):
I think they have to wait.

Speaker 1 (01:13:57):
No, no, no, they don't have to wait. You know what,
don't mean they have to wait.

Speaker 5 (01:14:01):
They have to wait to release the information that you
sold the stock as an inside person.

Speaker 1 (01:14:07):
I don't.

Speaker 4 (01:14:07):
Sometimes executives like that have systematic.

Speaker 1 (01:14:10):
Absolutely, that's I said. I said, there's a number of
variety of reasons that could have happened, but it's pretty significant. Yeah,
and uh, Netflix, there is another one dropped that's dropped
to twelve percent in the same period in about what
six weeks. No, Netflix was all time high by six
weeks ago.

Speaker 4 (01:14:29):
Yeah, but Netflix did talk about how they're gonna have
a lot more expenses coming into the second half of
the year because they've got a lot of releases.

Speaker 3 (01:14:35):
Coming in through different movies.

Speaker 4 (01:14:37):
Ye, different, So that news people probably took some profits
because it hit all time highs. It was at twelve
hundred and fifty dollars a share, and then they come
out and talk about that, which I mean they just
released Happy Gilmore Too on Friday. They're coming out with
other movies throughout the rest of the year and TV
shows and Stranger Things and Wednesday. A lot of their

(01:14:58):
keynote like Marquee are coming back, So that's all the
second half of the year. But the advertising is a
ton of spending. So they're bringing back Stranger Things, final
season of the series.

Speaker 1 (01:15:07):
Final season, all of the kids are adults.

Speaker 3 (01:15:10):
Yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:15:11):
Yeah, I mean they probably use like he might have
waited too long, you might have waited look a little
too long on that.

Speaker 4 (01:15:16):
That's been a whole conversation about it, but it is.
That's what Netflix talked about the last couple of weeks.
So that might be part of the reason they're selling
off because there's a lot of costs that they're going
to incur for the forecast of the second half of
the year.

Speaker 2 (01:15:28):
You know what, I can't wait to come up?

Speaker 1 (01:15:31):
What?

Speaker 2 (01:15:31):
NFL?

Speaker 1 (01:15:33):
Yeah, NFL forty NFL forty days.

Speaker 4 (01:15:36):
NFL is talking about getting a ten percent stake in ESPN.
Man Disney's been a quiet stock this year. They're about
eight percent for the year, back over one twenty YEP.
Disney owns eighty percent of ESPN and then Hearst Corporation
owns the other twenty percent of ESPN. NFL is trying
to get ten Hurst, like William Hurst, that media company.

Speaker 3 (01:15:58):
A huge newspaper.

Speaker 4 (01:15:59):
No, absolutely, way back when, but that company is not
media and they're trying to get to an NFL in
the ESPNS. They've been talking for a couple of years
now about doing ten percent steak for the NFL. ESPN
wouldn't get any stake in the NFL like it just
did when it bought into the Professional Lacrosse League, but
what they would get is rights to airing the NFL network,

(01:16:20):
rights to airing the NFL red Zone. So the thought
is that would help ESPAN quite a bit to have
all that NFL viewership coming to them.

Speaker 2 (01:16:30):
Yeah, that red zone to be a big deal.

Speaker 3 (01:16:32):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:16:33):
YouTube has it right now.

Speaker 4 (01:16:35):
Yeah, and I don't know how long YouTube's deal is
with the NFL, but they do have it right now.
They have the NFL package as well because they pay
the NFL.

Speaker 2 (01:16:42):
One illion dollars a year now.

Speaker 4 (01:16:45):
The NFL package, Oh sorry, Yeah, the NFL package is
different than NFL network. The NFL package is the one
you pay for the season of two hundred.

Speaker 3 (01:16:53):
And fifty bucks a year, four in a bucks a year.

Speaker 4 (01:16:54):
I forget what it is, but that's just for every
game everywhere, so not just local. The NFL network is
a year round network. And then obviously the red Zone
is a little different. Yeah, it's a good move for
ESPN Red.

Speaker 1 (01:17:08):
I love the Red Zone. Forty days can tell our
national black hole of sports ms.

Speaker 2 (01:17:14):
Yeah, it's been tough.

Speaker 3 (01:17:15):
It's tough if you're a golf fan. It's summers are okay.

Speaker 1 (01:17:19):
Now from the from the NBA Finals to UH to
the NFL that's a big black hole.

Speaker 2 (01:17:24):
Calm tournaments anymore, it's just Scottie Scheffler showdowns.

Speaker 1 (01:17:27):
Yeah, it's awesome. Yeah, watching the Scotty Scheffler kind of
doing a Tiger thing, isn't it.

Speaker 4 (01:17:31):
Yeah, like sant trajectory, you got to keep it up
for a few more years. But he's on the same
trajectory as of right now.

Speaker 3 (01:17:37):
And then Roy he's.

Speaker 2 (01:17:38):
Gotta do the Scheffler Slam before.

Speaker 1 (01:17:40):
Yeah, he's got to get that lifetime slam right our
career slam the four would that be saying.

Speaker 4 (01:17:48):
Well he didn't do it technically in the same year
he Yeah, he held them all at the four at
the same time, but he didn't do it in the
same calendar year like he won the Masters. He won
the three of them to open, the PGA and the
other and the US opened all at once, and then
the next year he won the Masters, which.

Speaker 3 (01:18:04):
Is the first.

Speaker 1 (01:18:05):
Yeah, that's that's dominant there.

Speaker 4 (01:18:06):
Well, that dominant if somebody can do it, if somebody
does it four in a row, because especially the way
they're broken out all in the same calendar year.

Speaker 3 (01:18:13):
Oh, that's not hasn't happened before.

Speaker 1 (01:18:15):
Now, just having all four up at the same time,
that's dominant.

Speaker 3 (01:18:19):
Uh yeah, yeah, Tiger. Tiger is still the best.

Speaker 4 (01:18:21):
Scotty's got to do a couple because also what Chef
was doing right now is what McElroy did when he
was coming to the top back about fifteen years ago.
So he Scotty still has to keep going. But he's
on that trajectory.

Speaker 5 (01:18:34):
What was that crazy staid about him? If you were
to bet on him instead of the S and P
five hundred.

Speaker 2 (01:18:39):
Yeah, going back to like twenty he was twenty nineteen,
you would have made more money betting on Scott.

Speaker 4 (01:18:44):
Condone the sports gambling. But if you bet on Scotty
on every tournament to win, you'd be up a lot
more than you would be if you put all that
money in the SMP for.

Speaker 3 (01:18:53):
That return five years, he's six For the last three years.
Since twenty twenty two and he started winning.

Speaker 5 (01:18:58):
He's returned sixty five percent on its placed consistently across
tournaments of performance that at times has beat the S
and P five hundreds return since twenty twenty one.

Speaker 1 (01:19:06):
That's funny. Southwest Airlines finally announced that they're going to
uh the date when they're gonna have tickets. They're gonna
have a signed ticket starting on January twenty seventh, and
the first ones go on sale on July twenty ninth.
Coming right up here a couple of days. Have you
guys seen what's going on at McDonald's. No, I have not.

(01:19:26):
You know, McDonald's been struggling a little bit, and honestly
don't know. You think with the economy, the economy is
still strong. Maybe you look at McDonald's think god that
they'd be the beneficiary of the eco economy or a
weekend a little bit. But it's gotten a little more pricey,
hasn't it.

Speaker 5 (01:19:41):
So I think gone more pricing I think a lot
of consumers tastes are changing. They're looking for more healthier alternatives.

Speaker 1 (01:19:47):
Well, and to that, to that, they've come back. They
brought the snack wrap back.

Speaker 6 (01:19:52):
Okay, come on, are you not?

Speaker 1 (01:19:53):
No you remember the snack rack, but it's been a while.

Speaker 6 (01:19:55):
Noah, No, I do remember.

Speaker 1 (01:19:56):
The snack rack is a snap rap snap wrap because
you say.

Speaker 6 (01:20:01):
Clarify that chicken healthy.

Speaker 1 (01:20:04):
Oh yeah, it's either grilled or fried chicken. Obviously, put
grilled chicken in there in a tortilla, so yeah, no,
that's healthy. On top of that, the Thursday, they announced
plans to test new coffee drinks that are gonna and
flavored sodas at more than five hundred restaurants, hoping to
cash in on you guys on the younger consumers love

(01:20:27):
for fun, colorful drinks. You guys like fun colorful drinks.

Speaker 6 (01:20:32):
Speaking about I guess I got one.

Speaker 1 (01:20:34):
More the McDonald's saying here, I want you to this
is a warning. This is a public service message. McDonald's has,
for whatever reason, recently added fairly significant yellow poles to
their drive ups, and those yellow poles are supposed to
be keep you from running into the restaurant with your
car right. However, at the Swan and Sunrise again, this

(01:20:59):
is the public service message. At the Swan and Sunrise location,
the yellow poles extend out a little bit further into
the driveway than they probably should have. I think they
were probably installed in correctly, to be honest with you,
because you can't pull in and hand somebody the money
without opening your door or hitting one of the yellow poles.

(01:21:21):
So my wife decided to hit one of the yell
poles to be here. Anyway, She dragged your car along
one of the yellow poles, and we're going to be
dealing with.

Speaker 2 (01:21:31):
That well, along McDonald's golp one. I had an interesting
client meeting this week, and he's a doctor that administers
some of this and I had just a conversation about
the golp one space and he says that he believed
that they're going to become in a central medication as
soon as next year, and if that happens, the government
will make it super cheap and make the companies overproduce it,

(01:21:55):
and essentially there's not going to be much revenue. So
he says, like his business, they he making a lot
of money right now off of it. Thinks it's going
to be cut in half next year because of these
subsidies that are going to be put in place because
of the government. There's also a new GLP one that
you Lily's coming out that he was super excited about,
called Godzilla, that was the nickname for it, and apparently

(01:22:16):
it just kills the game on all the metrics of
how well this works on weight loss. But also he's like,
there's a lot of other benefits that we didn't know
and weren't expecting, Like now we're putting on heart patients
on it because it helps with heart problems, and there's
the new one says that will completely eliminate fatty livered disease,
and so there's a lot of other use cases for this.

(01:22:38):
That why he believes it is going to be deemed essential.
And I said, okay, but what about the long term risk?
Do you think there's any long term issues with this?
And he says, honestly, it's a great question. We won't
know for thirty years, but right now, all the risks
that we thought were there, Like we thought there might
be a slightless risk of pinkingatic cancer, and there is,
but it's very minute, and it's definitely not as much.

(01:23:00):
The risks far underway the benefits of the drug, and
that's why it's going to be deemed. But you did
say that the long term aren't aren't quite known yet.
By the way, there's a lot of benefits benefits underway.

Speaker 1 (01:23:13):
But yeah, well, the number one disease in the United
States is obesity. It's helping curb that absolutely a lot.
And then you get rid of obesity, you get rid
of hard disease, you're a fatty liver disease. It's all related, right,
So I absolutely can understand where he's coming from. If
you could get get everyone who's obese to not be obese,

(01:23:35):
oh my goodness, the healthcare system would breathe a sigh
of relief, and prices would come down and and everybody
would live longer.

Speaker 2 (01:23:42):
It's a little de incentivizing though, if you think about
it from Novo and el Atle's point of view of
making too good of a drug. It's kind of like
the epipenk creator, you can't be a good product.

Speaker 1 (01:23:53):
Well, he's been climbing lately, though, so it's kind.

Speaker 2 (01:23:55):
Of like they got some other things in the pipeline
that are even more exciting.

Speaker 1 (01:23:57):
They're just some great things in the pipeline. But the
g lp on drugs, they have it, they're here to
stay and hopefully they can refine them so it's not
taking away muscle and bone as well as fat. So
we'll be back with the final segment right after this message.

Speaker 4 (01:24:14):
Welcome back to the final segment of the Money Matters Show.
Before this break, we were talking about GLP ones, about
Eli Lilly having a new drug that's going into phase
three trial that should be ending in about April of
twenty six called Godzilla is their nickname for it, because
it's just it does very good things it and it's crazy.
Like you we were talking about the fatty liver here.

(01:24:38):
One hundred percent in patience from that. So if you
can keep doing it and it passes the phase three
trials and it can go to production, it'd be some
I think it'd be overall, would be a good thing.
And we're talking about their Alzheimer's disease drug as well,
that's doing well.

Speaker 3 (01:24:52):
Eli Lilly is doing a lot of good things out there.

Speaker 5 (01:24:54):
And I think that we contribute some of these consumer
tastes changing because of the gop one drugs. And you're
starting to see other companies like Pepsi, for example, they
have you know, gone away from their soda and they're
trying to manufacture more prebiotic soda and put that on
their shelves. They're trying to take the food dies out
of their chips before Kennedy gets ahold of them. And
you know, instead of replace, instead of putting red forty

(01:25:16):
into their chips, they're going to put beats colored stuff
into it. Right, So you're gonna start seeing all these
trends within you know, food industry as well.

Speaker 1 (01:25:26):
Played right into my next story. Coca Cola the DAL
component to rally thirteen percent this year, and on Tuesday
they had a better than expected quarterly report. But they
here's the important part. They also announced that they're going
to have a new coke with cane sugar. I know
you guys have seen this because Trump said it was coming, right,
it's got I thought, well, they're gonna they're going to
change the high fruit coast and replace it with sugar. No,

(01:25:49):
it's going to be a brand new coke. It's going
to be a cane sugar coke. I don't know what
they're going to call it. Cane coke. Well, who knows
what they're gonna call it, but it's going to be
a brand new drink. And I would say suggest that
here in Tucson, we've actually been able to have that
for many, many years years, right, Sebastian, what they call it,
Mexican coc There you go, Mexican Coca Cola has been

(01:26:12):
made with cane sugar for years, and we've all over Tucson.
So this is nothing big to us. A spokesperson for
the Academy. Now, keep in mind, the people have been
clamoring for this right, for healthier food, for more natural ingredients. Right.
So this spokesperson for the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics

(01:26:33):
says there is no difference between high fruit coast corn
syrup and cane sugar. None. She said, sugar is sugar.
There is no difference, And it's a little hard to
believe though, right. I don't know. Okay, CNN was after
being in favor of all of these changes, couldn't have
been more negative about the cane sugar being worse for

(01:26:57):
you as much as.

Speaker 5 (01:26:59):
Wait, CNN and some of that. Yeah, Trump's idea.

Speaker 2 (01:27:02):
I thought high fruit toast is the worst thing you could.

Speaker 3 (01:27:04):
That's all I remember hearing, yeah, high fruit toast car.

Speaker 1 (01:27:07):
Yeah, I know, but I think I think it's the
the It's been predominantly people on the left have been
pushing for this better ingredients, right, So I don't know,
it's kind of interesting to see him pushing back on it.
She had she had a gallay, I had a tray
of donuts and I couldn't hear it because it was
at a gym. But she had a Snickers bar and
something else was complaining about the Coca cola apparently having

(01:27:31):
and I guess if you drink a regular Coca Cola
has probably what two hundred and forty calories maybe in
a regular coke, which is as many as a half
of a Snickers bar. Oh, yes, I don't know. But anyway,
she was saying that the cane sugar was even higher
calorie than the fruit coast.

Speaker 5 (01:27:52):
But it's real and not synthetic, so I can imagine
it would be better.

Speaker 1 (01:27:55):
Yeah, you would think it would be better for you, right,
or not for you or whatever. GM was flat on
the year and dropped seven percent of the open on Tuesday,
despite beating on revenue and earnings thirty one percent below
last year. The revenue was thirty one percent below last year,
which shouldn't have been a surprise, but the stock did

(01:28:16):
rebound five percent on Wednesday after that Japanese trade deal
was announced, and I thought, wait a second, how is
that positive for General Motors? We know Toyota jumped, and
I can understand why that was positive for a Toyota,
General Motors and Ford. That same day, the General Motors popped,
came out and said, this is not fair. Fifteen percent
tariff on Toyota and if we get parts from Mexico

(01:28:39):
or Canada is twenty five percent. How's that fair? A
twenty five percent tariff on cars that are made primarily
in the United States and a fifteen percent tariff on
cars coming over on boat from Japan. Good point. Good point.
So a lot of this, a lot of this tariff
languages is in motion, you know, so much going on

(01:29:02):
that at some point we're gonna have to settle on.
It was interesting though, to see that the government revenue
in June was greater than the expenditure for the first
time in four years, thanks to the tariffs. I'm guessing
it's going to be that way in July again. You
think we're on to a way of beating this deficit. No,
you don't think we can actually shrink the deficit via tariffs? No,

(01:29:23):
because essentially it's just many people argue it's a tax
on the American people, and we have not felt that
really yet.

Speaker 2 (01:29:30):
But you cut interest rates down to two maybe?

Speaker 1 (01:29:33):
Ye know, have you watched Hershey Todd I've.

Speaker 2 (01:29:36):
Been having a fun little couple.

Speaker 1 (01:29:38):
Cras weeks right, crazy Hershey's really has been struggling with
concerns about the GLP one weight loss drugs and tariffs
on Brazil, which is where they get a lot of
their coco. It was down ten percent this year. About
sixty days ago, they announced a double digit price hike
across all of their products and apparently it's made no

(01:30:02):
difference in terms of sales, and the stock as a
result of jumped twenty three percent in the last sixty days. Hershey, Sleepy, Sleepy, Hershey.

Speaker 2 (01:30:13):
So that's one where the consumer did bear the burden.

Speaker 1 (01:30:16):
Yes, absolutely, Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:30:18):
Do you see Team Obile this week? Yeah, they jumped
six percent. I also saw interesting report. You know, Team
Mobile has a Starling thing going on with them and
sea that Starling had their first like mishap.

Speaker 1 (01:30:31):
This year's broken this week broken, right, they had as
it fixed?

Speaker 5 (01:30:34):
Now, yeah, they had an outage, and I don't think
that it's fixed. Maybe it's fixed at this point, but.

Speaker 2 (01:30:39):
I'm not sure either.

Speaker 1 (01:30:40):
I got a wire from the guy that fixes my
car saying there a whole system was down because it's starling.

Speaker 5 (01:30:45):
But that Team Mobile stocks that's been doing good, and
AT and T has been having a really good year.
Verizon's been lagging behind those two companies a little bit.

Speaker 1 (01:30:52):
Yeah, big change, go ahead.

Speaker 2 (01:30:54):
I was just thinking Tmobile has a great marketing piece
that's going out on the person saying that we had
the most tower, we have the biggest network, because for
a lot of people, that's the only thing they can
wrap their heads around on why you would pick one
over the other other than price obviously. So that's a
good little marketing piece that they have.

Speaker 1 (01:31:12):
Now, I've been with Verizon since Verizon became a company,
and I watched that Team Mobile piece. He me, I'll
go over there.

Speaker 2 (01:31:18):
Yeah, right, a little bit.

Speaker 1 (01:31:20):
I'm paying Verizon like one hundred and twenty five bucks
a month or whatever for the Senior plan, and you're
gonna give it to me for twenty bucks a month.
Oh maybe I'll do that, hey. Accredited investors, big changes
coming there. Accredited and accredited investors are is a term
for people that are allowed to invest in more sophisticated

(01:31:40):
investments like private placements. The threshold for being an accredited
investor is you have to have income of two hundred
thousand dollars as an individual or five hundred thousand dollars
as a married couple. That makes you an accredited investor. Apparently,
if you make enough money you're sophisticated. That's the take

(01:32:01):
on it, but I think it's that it's probably more
if you make enough money you can afford a loss right.
Under a bill that recently passed the House, this would
be expanded to include people who could pass an SEC
test proving that they were sophisticated investors, which actually is
probably a way better way to measure a sophisticated investor

(01:32:25):
than how much they make.

Speaker 2 (01:32:27):
But I could use chat Gibti to answer all those
questions on that test, and so they should probably have
some guardrails around that.

Speaker 6 (01:32:34):
Well, they'll have a proctor or something.

Speaker 2 (01:32:35):
I'm sorry, I'm sure they'll have a proctor.

Speaker 1 (01:32:37):
They will be interesting to see how it will be
interesting to see how it's administered, you know, and when
our licensing exams are very tightly controlled.

Speaker 2 (01:32:46):
You know, I get that, but a credit investor doesn't
seem like something that you would have so much tightly controlled.

Speaker 3 (01:32:52):
I don't think you have to go to prometric.

Speaker 2 (01:32:55):
Yeah, and it's expensive to do that too. You don't
have to contract that out, And like.

Speaker 1 (01:33:01):
So many things, it probably is more of a cya,
don't you think before investors to protect the regulators that yes,
we we know this is a sophisticated investor because they
passed this sophisticated investor test right. Just covering yourself.

Speaker 2 (01:33:22):
Yeah, some brokerages will make you sign things that you know.
Before you invest in leverage products or crypto like products,
you have to sign a form saying that you know
you're getting into that. It's not the same as being
a credit investor, but there are certain safeguards for certain
products that you know. Regulators just want to make sure
you know what you're getting yourself into.

Speaker 1 (01:33:40):
You know. The market has been go, go, go up,
up up on the way, but there have been a
few exceptions. Five Serve the fintech company already down twenty
percent this year, down another sixteen percent to a fifty
two week low on Wednesday, and otis, guess what the
elevator shares keep going down like that? No clever and

(01:34:02):
the fifty two weeks ago for them as well as
they don't see the demand for their product being like
it has been in the past. And I guess you
could probably think in terms of commercial buildings and how
many new commercial buildings are going to be going up
high rises, how many multi story commercial buildings with so
much of the commercial space empty as it sitsts now

(01:34:26):
as we sit here on at the end of July, we're.

Speaker 2 (01:34:29):
Going to get to seven thousand by the end of
the year.

Speaker 1 (01:34:32):
Uh yeah, I'm gonna let me take the easy route, Yes, yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:34:38):
All right, I'll go with you.

Speaker 1 (01:34:40):
You know, we all go contrans I mean that's the market.
I mean, we're all up, up and away, right, there's
no downside, there's no reason to sell. Trump's going to
do all these wonderful things. Let's go, go go. But
you know, seven percent at the same time, excuse me,
seven thousand at same time. But it finished sixty four hundred,
about ten percent, ten percent away, so and that would
put you up about eight seventeen eighteen percent for the

(01:35:01):
year wouldn't be an extraordinary year considering all the things
Trump is doing and all of the things that he
potentially can do. Right, we can see seventh. I was
looking at the NASDAC on Friday at a finished Friday
at twenty one thousand and one oh eight. I remember
in nineteen ninety nine it jumped up to five thousand,

(01:35:22):
the NAD the jumped to five thousand, and then it
fell back to two thousand, and I thought, we'll never
see five thousand again. Honest honestly, God, honestly, seriously thought that.

Speaker 6 (01:35:31):
I remember saying that before.

Speaker 1 (01:35:32):
We'll never see five thousand again. And this kept working
as well again three thousand, oh thirty five hundred, Oh yeah,
we'll never see five thousand again. It closed to twenty
one thousand, one oh eight, and the Dow was at
forty four thousand and nine oh one. I was a
broker of the day it became one thousand for the
first time. Be long or be wrong. We all want

(01:35:52):
to be happy, we all want to be healthy, and
at the end of the day, what Greenberg Financial is
trying to be is profitable. See you next twig

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