Gold at All-Time Highs, Tariff Tensions, and the Psychology of Poor Portfolio Decisions

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Good morning everybody.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
It's that time once again, Sunday morning, eight o'clock right here,
seven ninety K and s T It's the Money Matter Show,
and this is Dean Greenberg. For the next two hours,
we're going to talk to you how we feel about
what's going on in the world of economics and how
it relates to with the politics, with the with the

(00:26):
with the tariffs, with everything happening. It's all it's all together,
and at the end of the day right now, it's
not fun for investors. It's not fun for the people
that you know, uh, you know, believe in what's going on,
uh and has to take a step back and and
and and take the pain a little bit, especially in

(00:46):
their four one K plans and in their in their
stock portfolios and even bond portfolios. Rates have gone up
a little bit. Gold has been doing very good, very
good and kind of interesting how that's happening. There are
some theories out there. We'll we'll see what happens. But
this week was not great. That was down almost three percent.

(01:08):
The S and P was down one and a half percent.
Now now as Thatch was down two and a half percent.
The Russell two thousand was down one, but the equal
weighted S and P five hundred was actually up point
four percent, which is telling you the money is kind
of branching out, staying away from just all the technology
stocks and the big U and the and the and

(01:29):
the companies that can get hurt with the tariffs, and
they're trying to stay probably more to the companies that
could benefit from tarifs on other people that are American
made companies.

Speaker 1 (01:42):
You know, big thing, My big thing is is.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
That is anything really one percent American made any of
these big companies. I don't think so. I think parts
and different things, materials come from different places around the world.
So we'll see how that all plays out. I mean, eventually,
could we.

Speaker 1 (01:59):
Get to that. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
I'm just still trying to understand the methodology of what
we're trying to do. And I and I and I
do question did we have to do it this way?
And that always comes back to one thing. What we're
trying to do, what Trump is trying to do is
absolutely I'm one hundred percent on board. We got to

(02:21):
reduce our debt, and we got to do it sooner
than later. Howard doing it, I'm not sure if it's
really actually as bad as it sounds or not, but
upsetting partners around the world. But is it a media
that's trying to bring that together? Is it the media

(02:42):
around the world that's trying to say how bad it is?
Because you know, at the end of the day, we
are the ones that could that, that are the ones
being taken advantage of.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
We know that.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
And when when somebody else is benefiting from taking advantage
to somebody else and you change that, of course everyone's
gonna be upset with you. But do we stand there
and try to say, oh, we're a nice guy and
we let a debt go through the sky.

Speaker 1 (03:08):
Or do we do something about it?

Speaker 2 (03:10):
I'm in the can't that we do something about it,
and we do it sooner than later. You know, a
lot of false things have been said about Social Security, Medicaid, medicare.
There are some changes that have to be made, but
no one's taking their checks away. And it behooves me
on how the media allows bide In and his and

(03:32):
his other people that actually get up and just keep
saying how the people on the lift, you're going to
lose your social security, You're going to have less money,
when it's not happening. The truth of the matter is
if we don't do something in five, ten, fifteen years,
that's exactly what's going to have to happen. The pensions
are going to have to be cut. We saw this

(03:53):
in two thousand and eight and two thousand and one
when we fell so much. Pensions had to adapt, Pension
plans had to adapt around the country and around the
world on how people got paid. Companies were underfunded, they
had to come up with money, so they charged people
that were working more money to be able to fund

(04:16):
their retirement. Down the road, nations Greece, Spain cut and
France cut what they were doing or extended the time
frame before they can get their pensions uproars everywhere. Nobody
wants to be changed. But when you're relying on somebody else,
and when you're relying on the government to be able

(04:39):
to support you, you're going to have these problems because
things have to go up and down. Because remember, in
order to get paid, where's it coming from. And if
you're talking taxes and more taxes, it comes from the
successful people that are working paying taxes. And the more

(05:01):
money you make, the more money you pay in taxes.
And that's okay if it's fair. Everyone talks about fairness
on the other side, or pay your fair share in taxes.
Well what does that mean? I ask everyone, what does
that mean when you say it? Because to me right now,
it's not really that fair. But if you want to

(05:22):
say it's fair that somebody that's making you know, half
a million dollars is paying one hundred and fifty thousand
in taxes, right and somebody that's making fifty thousand is
not paying taxes at all, is that fair? I guess
it depends how you look at it. Right, Well, you're
making that out, but I look at it the other way.

(05:44):
The person making a half a million dollars a year
has put the time and the effort to schooling, whatever
it took to get to that level, the risk if
it's in his own business to get to that level,
and for that they should be tax more percentage wise
of for tax more too. It's not just dollar wise,
because the higher you get it's progressive.

Speaker 1 (06:06):
You get higher paid.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
You go from ten to twelve, to fifteen to twenty
to thirty to thirty five to thirty eight percent or
thirty seven and a half percent. Then you get state
taxes on top of it so you do get taxed more.
And to say that's not their fair share, I don't know.
I don't understand. And then when they start talking about

(06:27):
billionaires don't pay their fair share and they don't pay enough,
you know, I just I just shatow to say, back.

Speaker 1 (06:33):
Change the tax laws. Change the tax laws.

Speaker 2 (06:36):
People with that type of money have a lot invested
in long term investments that they don't have to pay
taxes on.

Speaker 1 (06:45):
And a lot of them have.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Instruments that give them depreciation, like real estate. You don't
like it, change the tax law, but if you don't
like that, then they're gonna hurt. It's gonna hurt real estate.
And if it hurts real estate, that's gonna I hurt you. Also,
because most people that have a house, their real estate
prices would.

Speaker 1 (07:07):
Go down to.

Speaker 2 (07:09):
We got to be smart about how we do things
so win the situation. That is very tough, and from
as an investor, I'm having trouble trying to figure out
do I buy or do I sell.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
I don't even really know right now.

Speaker 2 (07:26):
Because I want to buy when the market's down and
then the market rallies, and then as soon as it rallies,
you're hearing something different and then the markets fall. So
it's kind of like I've raised cash. I'm staying cautious.
I'm ta protective. If it comes back down to forty
eight hundred or lower forty five forty four, I'll put
that back to work. If we go up much higher

(07:47):
from here fifty six to fifty eight hundred, I'll probably
take more money off the table and protect. I don't
know any other way to invest right now. Do we
have that long term picture of saying what can happen
going forward? You and I both know you're out of
a market. We can come in one day, China's gonna
come eat the next thing.

Speaker 1 (08:05):
You know.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
We're up three thousand points on the now and five
hundred points on the S and P five hundred. So
not having any investment is going to be a tough
situation for you. So what do you do? How do
you address this? You invest less, have more cash, have

(08:26):
have smaller amounts in different positions, and you weather the storm.
If you're someone that has to live off that money
coming out of your retirement account, then that's a whole
different story, and that's a whole different topic, and that's
a whole different type of portfolio to put together, because

(08:48):
if you're living off your portfolio and you're trying to
take out ten or fifteen percent a year, you're gonna
be in trouble because you're not gonna make ten or
fifteen percent a year. Yeah, if you have your portfolio
and you're going to try to take out four or
five percent, you can set that portfolio up to safeguard

(09:10):
yourself between market downturns and give you time to come
back and for the next five years be able to know,
no matter what happens, you're going to get your money
every single month, and then you're going to keep repeating
that and repeating that and repeating that, and you'll have
five years for the markets to come back. Now, how

(09:31):
do you invest when you do that? You got to
invest conservatively. Got to use ETFs indexes, dividend paying stocks,
high yielding funds to be able to give yourself the
ability to make dividends and interest enough to buy a
five year olt bond to replace the one. You're there,
and it's an ongoing system, and you're setting yourself up

(09:53):
systematically to be able to take money from your account
over the next ten to twenty thirty years. Remember, if
you're taking money out of your account, it's not always
gonna go up. The growth part can go down. So
make sure you're secure on moneies that you need for

(10:15):
the next five years. And you can't take seven eight
percent out and think it's not going to fall.

Speaker 1 (10:22):
And it's so important.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
When the markets are hired to avoid getting in and
doing it and the market's four for the first one
or two years, and then rallies from there because say,
you know what you're doing is you're coming in and
getting negative years right now. So as the market is
a little bit softer, a little bit more cautious, you've
got to invest cautiously. Now, if we come back down

(10:48):
to forty eight forty five four thousand on the SMP,
now that's a whole different story. Then these things work
better because then you know, for the next ten years
you're going to probably average that ten percent or so
on the SMP. But when the markets are going up
fifteen percent or twenty percent like they did in the
last few years, you know there's a reset. There's always
a reset. So everyone that's talking now that the surprise,

(11:11):
think about it. We needed a reset. We were at
twenty two twenty three times earnings, even twenty four. Sometimes
average is sixteen seventeen. And right now earnings aren't gonna
en be increasing, They're going to be decreasing, and that's
what makes the markets go down. So we've had some
reports come out lately okay, and the reports on on

(11:32):
on uh, you know, sales okay have been great. People go,
how could this be? How could there be so much sales? Well,
it's really simple. People feel what they fear that we're
going to have higher prices in near future because of

(11:52):
the tariffs. They got a lot of people got tax refunds,
so they're buying stuff now, they're buying it before prices
go up, So of course you're going to see a
spike a consumer buying everybody I know that only has
a car. Lot of works in the car industry. You're saying,

(12:14):
they're selling records amount of cars over the last couple
of months.

Speaker 1 (12:18):
Tariffs.

Speaker 2 (12:19):
They don't want to get hit some people doing it.
So then when the inventory goes down, what's gonna happen.
Obviously sales are gonna go down. That's what happens. It's
a cycle. So that brings me to the Federal Reserve
and I know this week you heard Chairman Powell and

(12:41):
then you heard Trump come out the day after say
I can't wait to his termination date. You know, of
course the left will run with determination date and say
he wants a threatening to fire him. I didn't hear
any threatening and termination date. What that's saying is determination date.

(13:01):
You probably better be looking for another job. But you're
going to fulfill your contract too. Then, But he believes
we should have lower interest rates. Yes, Trump has created this,
this this situation that we're in. Yes, there's a possibility
with terrorists that rates will go higher, and the and
the Fed is concerned about higher inflation. But on the

(13:22):
other target, tariffs are also going to create a slow down.
Consumer spending will absolutely go down, Supplies will increase, the
demand will decrease. So yes, we will have a slow down,
maybe even a recession if you want to record everything

(13:45):
by the GDP. But a de mandate from the Fed
is to do what look at unemployment and try to
have unemployment come down. But if it's already down, they're
afraid that it would create a higher wages, so they

(14:06):
got to be worried about that. If we have too
low unemployment, then on the other side, they got to
worry about inflation economics economy, stimulate the economy when it's down,
and they got to worry about inflation on the other side.
We have both right now, right But here's the problem.
The FED is driving and looking in the rearview mirror.

(14:27):
They always do stuff that comes out to us in
for March and April and may are not going to
be the numbers that we feel in June, July or August.

Speaker 1 (14:39):
We all know that there's going to be a slow.

Speaker 2 (14:41):
Down we'll do, so why not get ahead of the
game and start showing that you can relieve some of
the interest rate pressure that we have to make sure
we stimulate the economy. Is that run the risk of
causing inflation to go up and higher price It does,

(15:02):
But remember we're not going to stimulate with the teriffs.
We're still not going to be buying, So the prices
could go up, would you be inflationary? But if we're
not buying, it's not gonna skyrocket. It's just going to
be from the terriffs. But to slow down is important.
But if you lower interest rates, we can at least

(15:23):
then maybe maintain where we're at, because then you're you're
paying less for things on credit cards, just paying less
for things.

Speaker 1 (15:30):
If you're buying a car, you're paying.

Speaker 2 (15:32):
Less for things to offset the increase in price on
the other side. And until we get inflation coming down
in the pro tariff wars done and fixed and there
is going to be everyone talk. Then when we get
that and the economy is already down and turning, and
we got lower prices because the terrorists are coming down, now,

(15:53):
think about the rocket ship we have after that. That's
why I believest rate should come down. You heard me
last year and the year before that. I never thought
that the Fed should lower interest rates, but they did anyway,
in September they did it, said twice. Actually when inflation

(16:16):
was higher there was at four point eight instead of
four point six, okay.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
And they did it when.

Speaker 2 (16:23):
Unemployment was lower at four point one four point two,
and now it's like four point three or something four
point four. So before they did it would demandate anticipating
what we still had a good economy. We never really
slowed down. Inflation was never transitory, but they did it.

(16:46):
So now you got to pick one side of the
mandate of the other. And the Fed is concentrating on inflation.
Is that because they felt like they missed it last
time when they said it was transitory, and they don't want.

Speaker 1 (16:57):
It to happen. You can see it.

Speaker 2 (17:00):
Anyone can see it and knows that inflation might go
up because of the tariffs.

Speaker 1 (17:05):
But it won't matter if you don't.

Speaker 2 (17:07):
If everything is a slow down and there's no demand and.

Speaker 1 (17:10):
Things are slowing. So take the compromise role.

Speaker 2 (17:16):
Lower interest rates are gonna be more people unemployed, especially
from the government right. Lower the interest rates, so at
least then money being borrowed from companies and their debt
that they have that fluctuates up and down could at
least go ahead and or set some of the losses
they are going to take on the other side. Don't

(17:39):
wait so long to see what the numbers are today, thinking, oh,
we're gonna get ahead of it.

Speaker 1 (17:45):
Get ahead of the game.

Speaker 2 (17:47):
Stop playing behind the ball.

Speaker 1 (17:50):
Start playing in front.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
Be proactive and not reactive, and as a FED, you're
going to have to be both. You got reaction, you
got proactive or reactive or whatever. In the in the
four last year low and raged twice. Am not even
gonna bring up the fact that it was an election year. Okay,
even though I just did. But honestly, I'm just looking

(18:13):
at the fact and facts. Now take the fact out,
it's the terrorifs take that out. Is is it look
like we're going to slow down because of what's going on?

Speaker 1 (18:22):
Yes?

Speaker 2 (18:23):
Is it Trump's fall for what's going on? Yes, this
is the plan. So why not you try to support
the people of America with it unless you don't think
what he's doing is correct, and then you become political
when you say you're not. This is not a political
stance from the FED. Lowing interest rates is good for people,

(18:52):
for the housing market, which is just gonna get crushed here. Again,
we're not building anything. So unless we have more supply,
even when interest rates come down, all that's gonna do
is keep raising prices of homes even if there are
no tariffs. We need supply, and the only way builders

(19:14):
are gonna be able to get money and build is
off interst rates come down, because that way they can
build a home that's affordable for Americans. So you gotta
tie this all together, man, You gotta look at where
we are and what's going on and try to figure
how to go forward and make money.

Speaker 1 (19:32):
Are the tariffs gonna be here.

Speaker 2 (19:33):
Yes, are there gonna be negotiation processes talks going on.
I think there will be, and you're gonna hear them
over the next couple of weeks. And every time there's
a good one, the market's gonna shoot up, and then
there's gonna be shot down after that. So we're gonna
be in a volatile time. But I'm just gonna look
at where we are now. Between five thousand and fifty

(19:55):
four hundred, you kind of stay neutral, stay neutral, hold
what you have, don't sell what you have, keep the position.
If we come down to forty eight hundred or lower
on the S and P. Five hundred, start to put
money to work. If we come to fifty six hundred
to fifty eight hundred on the S and P. Five hundred,
take some money off the table. If you don't know

(20:20):
how to do that, or how to mitigate risk with
this stuff, then go talk to somebody that can help you.

Speaker 1 (20:26):
Yes, we can help you.

Speaker 2 (20:27):
Also, get a couple different people to give you their ideas.
But don't look at your fear and just go buy annuities. Okay,
just don't say, oh, I don't want this downside, I
can't take this anymore, I'm going to buy annuity because
almost everyone I talked to that bought an annuity when

(20:49):
this was happening three years ago has made very little
money compared to what they would have made in the markets.
There are reasons to buy annuities when you want to,
going ahead to do it because of the protection is
not one of them. There's many other ways to protect
yourself and get about the same yield. Heck, in the

(21:11):
money market now, I'll get over four to four and
a half percent. That's almost about what almost anyone I
know averages with these annuities because of all the fees.

Speaker 1 (21:21):
I know they sound great, I know they do. Can't
go down, only up.

Speaker 2 (21:28):
You know, when you're buying an annuity index and stuff,
you're not even buying an index. You're giving your money
to the insurance company. They're gonna give you a rate
of return based on what's going on, maybe on one
of the indexes with a cap on it, after all expenses.
So if you're gonna get nine to ten percent on

(21:49):
the S and P, that means it's got to do
probably thirteen twelve or thirteen percent for you to get
the maximum between your life insurance that you're paying for
it between all the other expenses of the annew If
you have an annuity, you need to check out if

(22:09):
it's a good annuity or not, where you are and
what you're doing, and what the cause of it is
you really do there are ways to change that annuity
to another one that's better. There are ways to do
other things if you're stuck in it. It's almost like
where the time share stuff. A lot of people got
time shares, a few people love them, a lot of

(22:31):
people can't try to get out of them. It wasn't
what they expected it to be. And that's kind of
how I look at annuities a lot of time. There
are good ones, and when you're getting that check, that's
what annuities are great for. The guaranteed income that you
can get in the miga, great boom. You're in it
for five years, seven years, whatever it is, and they're
giving you high rates your return.

Speaker 1 (22:51):
That's great.

Speaker 2 (22:52):
The other one is when you do you go in
and you're able to say, in five years, ten years,
fit whatever it is, will I this is how much
money I'm going to get in a check minimum Those
are good if you put in X amount of money
and then you get X amount of a monthly.

Speaker 1 (23:10):
Check for the rest of your life. That's what they're
good for.

Speaker 2 (23:14):
What they're not good for is being scared of what's
going on and putting it into the mark, into the nuity.
Because you want to take your growth money and get conservative,
there's other ways to do it that you can keep liquidity.
Liquidity is the key to the to the game. Klamos
has a lot of good things that are out there
right now, different ones that can make you and there

(23:37):
are one year play one year you go in. They
say there's no downside, there's only upside depending when you
get in. But if you get in day one, that's
how they do it. They hedge the portfolio. You can
make eight, nine, ten percent on the upside and they're
saying you can't lose anything on the downside. Okay, again,

(23:59):
don't trust. Everything has some type of risk, so you
don't put all your money in one thing or do
anything with all one thing. But there are ways to
diversify and take advantage of different things that are out there,
and I highly suggest you learn how to mitigate risk,
learn how to take money off the table, and how
to step up to the plate. When the market's down,

(24:21):
we have a lot to talk about. This is Dean Greenberg.
This is the Money Matter Show. And I appreciate from
the bottom of my heart that you've been listening to
us talk for the last thirty five years. We'll be
right back. Welcome back, everybody. It's the Money By the Show.
I got Dave Sherwood, Dalan Greenberg, Todd Glick, myself to
bring you to another hour and a half of our

(24:45):
input of what's happening here. And like I said my monologue,
it's hard right now. I don't know you're buying a selling,
but between five thousand, if you bought under five thousand,
you in good shape. If you're still under invested and
you want to get to a certain point that you
know right around fifty one fifty two hundred, you can
add something, add indexes, but until it gets to fifty

(25:08):
six fifty eight hundred, I probably want to stay invested
to where I am. If it comes under five thousand,
so it's getting back to forty eight hundred or less,
I want to stop buying and adding with to the portfolio,
take off the mitigation part. Who knows a lot. Every
portfolio is different, but it's a very difficult time. Not
because of what's happening. It's because you can't see into

(25:30):
the future. And this is what's happening with every single company.
Will they have earnings or not?

Speaker 1 (25:35):
And you and I all know.

Speaker 2 (25:36):
If they just say, hey, changing the tariffs or were
negotiating with China, the whole thing changes absolutely.

Speaker 3 (25:43):
And more importantly though, Dean, Happy Easter to everyone. Oh yeah,
happy final day of Passover. We are not sitting in
the studio on the last day of Passover and on
Easter Sunday, recording this show Thursday Monday, Thursday, after the
close is when we're recorded this week. Friday is a holiday.
The New York Stock Exchange has traditionally closed for good Friday.

(26:07):
I call it spring break. It's kind of their version
of spring break. Right, Happy Easter to everyone, and be assured.
We're with our families, We're in church, we're in the
synagogue or wherever, we're not in the studio.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
So well, one of the things I.

Speaker 2 (26:21):
Do want to tell you too, guys, you know at Risk,
I always have to tell you about risk before we
get going. Risk is important to understand. The show is
brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, which is a
registered investment advisory, which means we'll all fee based business.
Everything we do is to be able to benefit the

(26:42):
client period as much in our opinion, the best we
can and we stick to that.

Speaker 1 (26:48):
And at the end of the day, though.

Speaker 2 (26:50):
There's risk with everything, and you have to understand your
risk tolerance and what risk really means. And sometimes when
you're just making a lot of money, there's risk there too,
and when you're losing money, there's risks there too. But
if you put your portfolio together based on what your
needs are, that reduces your risk, reduces your stress, and
that's what puts you in the right place. But don't

(27:12):
think that there's anything out there that doesn't have some
type of risks.

Speaker 3 (27:15):
And the one thing that market hats more than anything, Dean,
the one thing the market hates more than anything is uncertainty,
and we have uncertainty right now, unlike the uncertainty we've
seen in many years. You go back to the pandemic obviously,
so probably since the pandemic we have not had this period,
a period like this of this level of uncertainty, and

(27:38):
that the markets are skiddish volatile is not a surprise
in the least.

Speaker 4 (27:43):
One of the metrics that we use to measure the
volatility or the craziness that the market is experiencing is
that VIX. The VIX and it's technically an index you
can I guess bet on it, but it doesn't really
work very well. It's more just used as a metric tool.
And it's a volatility index that measures the volatility on
the S and P five hundred and like you're saying, Dave, yeah,

(28:06):
going back five years, we haven't seen that level of
volatility other than that yen carry trade meltdown.

Speaker 3 (28:11):
That day for one day, one day.

Speaker 4 (28:14):
Other than that, since the pandemic, we have not seen
the volatility index that high. So the extreme level of fear.

Speaker 3 (28:19):
And I think they're right to be volatile right now.
Everyone you talk to they don't know. The economy is
clearly slowing down. I've been asking everybody I talk to,
just out of curiosity, how's your business? What are you experiencing?
Are you're seeing any cancelation? And every single person I'm
talking to is saying no, things are slowing down. Where
we've had canceled orders, we've had canceled jobs. I have

(28:43):
a friend who runs a concrete fabricating company as one
hundred employees, and he said this is reminiscent of COVID,
where everyone he's dealing with is raising prices because they can,
because they can, because with tariffs, you think, well, everything's
going to be more expensive, right, so they're raising prices
because they can't.

Speaker 2 (29:02):
Well, why isn't Elizabeth Warming going out and saying something
about that. Why because she wants prices to rise, because
she wants them to be able to say, Oh, you
see the prices rise and people can't afford stuff.

Speaker 1 (29:11):
You know what that's wrong.

Speaker 2 (29:13):
Don't raise prices just because you can raise prices.

Speaker 1 (29:16):
When you have to.

Speaker 3 (29:17):
Yeah, I've got a friend who works in the furniture store.
They went through the entire store marked everything up ten
percent everything. Are they experiencing costs increases?

Speaker 4 (29:28):
No, No, of course no.

Speaker 3 (29:29):
But it's just just in case, just in case.

Speaker 4 (29:32):
And it's unfortunate too, because you know, even if they
did have like a two percent cost increase, they're going
to push it up twelve percent, right because even still, yeah,
they're going to have an extra additional margin.

Speaker 5 (29:42):
Well, it's an easy excuse as well. I mean you
can immediately do it like you're saying they're gonna do it,
even though if it gets positive not They're like, the
maybe of it happening is, we're just gonna do it.

Speaker 3 (29:51):
You know what's common. You've seen TV, right, you.

Speaker 5 (29:54):
Know it's justified. It's like, I mean that even happens.
Like hairdressers.

Speaker 3 (29:58):
It's like those fuel surd charges they put years ago
there still.

Speaker 5 (30:02):
There doubled, like a hairdresser double their prices.

Speaker 3 (30:05):
That's interesting because the cosmetic stocks have really gotten hit
in this drop and Cody was the latest this week.
C o t Y the hair products and make up
things of that nature. That's one of the one of
the things that you can delay. If you get a
haircut every four weeks, you can get it every six.

Speaker 1 (30:25):
Weeks though, huh will you?

Speaker 3 (30:29):
Well yeah, well, and I couldn't look like.

Speaker 2 (30:31):
You you, I couldn't look like you got your everyday
slimmed up, probably for the least the.

Speaker 1 (30:37):
Next six to twelve months.

Speaker 4 (30:38):
Yeah, he has a hairdresser. We have barbarous He has
a hairdresser.

Speaker 3 (30:47):
You no, no, look at my hair, are you kidding me?

Speaker 5 (30:49):
Well, you got one stock that never really has to
worry about all this uncertainty, and it seems is like,
because in COVID it did really well as Netflix because
during COVID volatility, everybody was home so they just watched Netflix,
so their earnings were good. They beat earnings by thirteen
percent this last quarter, mostly by increasing subscriptions that they thought.

(31:09):
They also increased the prices of each subscription per person,
so they're gonna make more money. But there was just
a higher new subscriptions and all that. Yeah, I mean
that's gonna happen. And also people are like, Okay, if
I can't afford to do this, I'll just stay home
and watch Netflix.

Speaker 4 (31:22):
Yeah, it's coming almost like a consumer staple let itself
into something that's like they won't get rid of that.

Speaker 5 (31:28):
It's gonna continue being that because now coming through NFL season,
they're gonna have more NFL games on there, so more
people are gonna get Netflix, and they're starting to they're
trying to get more into sports, live sports, so you're
gonna have even more Netflix is a great company to
get into.

Speaker 3 (31:42):
Well, they're just so much better than everybody else.

Speaker 1 (31:44):
I don't know, I don't even know about that.

Speaker 5 (31:46):
I mean.

Speaker 1 (31:48):
Apple TV. I think Apples so much better with.

Speaker 4 (31:53):
Okay, yeah, yeah, the content that's Apple. Yeah, I mean
they showed the rankings of how many users. Apples the lead,
and then it goes the top is Netflix obviously, Amazon
Prime is second, then it goes Disney, then it goes Hbo, Max.

Speaker 3 (32:06):
Buy Paramount Plus. Every time I see some one Paramount plus,
I want to shoot myself. Paramount plus horrible.

Speaker 4 (32:13):
Paramount is family.

Speaker 3 (32:15):
Oh, go through Prime, No paramunt Plus.

Speaker 1 (32:20):
You can go through Prime to get Plus.

Speaker 3 (32:22):
Yeah, you go through Prime.

Speaker 4 (32:23):
Yeah, yeah, I got my Max through Prime.

Speaker 2 (32:27):
You can get other subscriptions through Prime, which then it
takes care of everything, which is a.

Speaker 4 (32:32):
Cool thing that Amazon does, because what we're basically saying
for people who don't know is you can you have Amazon,
which is its own content on Amazon obviously, but you
can also incorporate your Prime, your Hulu, your you can
have all their channels, your other subscriptions in the Prime app.

Speaker 3 (32:47):
You maybe need to shut down after the show because.

Speaker 2 (32:48):
I am GM all day.

Speaker 1 (32:51):
Yeah, at the top, it's so much easier.

Speaker 3 (32:54):
Every month, So you subscribe my mortgage, you know.

Speaker 1 (32:59):
The same.

Speaker 4 (32:59):
You can you could pay pay everything through your Amazon account.
That's the purpose of it, except Netflix, except for Yeah,
they don't let you incorporate Netflix.

Speaker 3 (33:06):
Interesting, well I did so if you had we all
have Amazon.

Speaker 2 (33:11):
Just so you have an Apple count Amazon, I'm a
Prime account, which you do. Of course, you get rid
of the Prime account and you go to Apple and
your bundle. You go to a Prime and you bundle it.

Speaker 3 (33:21):
Yeah. Wait wait, wait, you just get rid of the
primary he said, he said, you said paramount Yeah, I apologize.
You just get rid of it.

Speaker 2 (33:27):
You get rid of Paramount Plus and you just bundle
it with Amazon.

Speaker 4 (33:33):
Basically you buy Paramount Plus through your Amazon account. That's
what's happening.

Speaker 5 (33:36):
And at the end of day, this helps Amazon stock
even more.

Speaker 4 (33:39):
Yeah, because everything is in one portal. Then instead of
having to change apps to wash your stuff, all your
stuff is in one big thing. It's like having a
TV like it's like a dish of all your streams.

Speaker 2 (33:49):
Because if you buy them individually, it's cheaper to go
through an Amazon and bundle it all. You get to
save a couple of bucks on each one each month.

Speaker 1 (33:57):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (33:57):
I'm not sure about your bundle thing, but.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
Done the bundle, yeah, bundle bab Yeah.

Speaker 2 (34:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (34:03):
They're talking a little bit more about the slowdown. It
was a kind of an interesting statistic. Uh, supply of
new vehicles has gone from ninety one days to seventy
days in the last month.

Speaker 4 (34:14):
Okay, so people are buying.

Speaker 3 (34:15):
From ninety one days to seventies. They're buying like mad.
Uh used cars that already were hot declined by four
days down to thirty nine days. And of course we
saw retail sales. Todd you and I were a little
surprised about March. Retail sales were so strong, and then
we thought, duh, everybody's rushing out to buy stuff. I
thought the head of the tear off the tax refund Yeah,

(34:36):
well multiplely come in April.

Speaker 5 (34:38):
Yeah, but I think a lot of people get yeah
I got of March.

Speaker 1 (34:42):
Yeah, the people that got to use it tax refunds. No.

Speaker 5 (34:45):
But I think you're right. I think you're right with
them trying to beat the beat it to the punch.

Speaker 1 (34:49):
Of course, I cat March.

Speaker 4 (34:50):
I think that when we saw the one point four
percent coming off a negative, we're like, that seems too high.
Ended up beating that expectations came in I think at
one point six. So the idea that we're gonn have
a negative GDP just seems like impossible when you have
that high of a retail sales.

Speaker 3 (35:04):
It does.

Speaker 4 (35:05):
So I don't think everyone's like we're in recession already.
I don't think that. I think quarter one was a
positive growth quarter. Okay, quarter two, yeah, possibly we have
we're in negative right now. Does feel like we're growing
right now. But the idea that quarter one just fell
off a cliff, I don't think we're gonna see that
when earned reports come out.

Speaker 3 (35:21):
Now, we get the we get the GDP report April thirtieth,
and it really is kind of a mood point. Whether
we're in recession or not, it feels like it. Yeah,
it feels like we're gonna pull back. Period.

Speaker 1 (35:30):
A period should.

Speaker 2 (35:31):
Not only mean call it it's a colotionary pee wee
because we don't know what's going on. People saving some
money to stop buying some stuff in case they have
to do it. They're buying what they need, not what
they want right now until until things go forward, and
then we'll see and then at that time we'll change.
Right now, nobody knows, So enjoy your weekend until we
know we'll be right back.

Speaker 1 (35:50):
It's the Money by the Show.

Speaker 4 (35:52):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
toddlik I'm here with Dean Greenberg, David Sherwood, and Dylan Greenberg.
It was a good week in the mark. It's for some,
but for most it wasn't. Gold was where the place
to be was the high new all time h thirty
three fifty I think it hit at one.

Speaker 3 (36:08):
Point, Yeah, I think it was.

Speaker 4 (36:10):
Interestingly, Bitcoin didn't really move it down either. It kind
of just stayed flat throughout the week.

Speaker 3 (36:15):
They actually gained a couple of percent. Yeah, Friday and Friday.
I mean, I know it's open all the time, so target,
where are you measuring from? But the what I use
is the ETF right, and the Bitcoin ETF was up
about two percent on the week.

Speaker 4 (36:28):
Another place to hide, it seemed like, was oil. I
did actually get a bid throughout the week, finished at
sixty seven dollars a barrel came back from its low
sixty four to fifty.

Speaker 3 (36:36):
Sorry, yeah, three bucks, that's okay, three bucks. Yeah. Gold
up ninety one dollars to thirty three thirteen. Treasury yields
dropped a little bit after spiking last week. You'd expect
there'd be a bit of a pullback.

Speaker 4 (36:49):
Yeah, And I want to say about the gold, I
did read a report that China's buying way more gold
out of their central bank than their reporting. You know
how we went through the reports of how much they're buying.
They're buying way more than what's actually on paper, which
makes sense. I mean when did they ever tell the truth?
Of course, but that makes a lot of sense what
we were saying. You look at that chart, it's just
parabolic right now. It's a tough thing to buy. I mean,

(37:10):
you hear a lot of people, do we buy gold here?
Do you buy gold now? A lot of clients ask it.
It's a tough thing to buy. When you look at
a chart that goes straight up, it could.

Speaker 3 (37:19):
Easily drop a thousand bucks without any reason.

Speaker 5 (37:21):
Yeah, it's like, what's your goal with gold? You like,
if you want to buy gold, what is your goal is?

Speaker 2 (37:26):
It's something going on with gold that we were talking
about this the other I agree.

Speaker 1 (37:30):
I agree.

Speaker 2 (37:30):
I've been never been a gold bug, Okay, I've never
bought gold for inflationary times. I never bought gold because
of fear. Okay, I know that's why. Because those three
things make it go down. There's something else going on.
Because I'm watching the dollar go down and Todd and
I would talk about this the other day, and I'm
watching gold go higher. I think there's a globalization of

(37:53):
changing the way we look at the dollar and the
rest of the stuff. We've heard this for years. Okay,
that doesn't mean that we don't do better when the
dollar goes down. We always say we want a strong dollar,
except when the dollar is weak, it's so much easier
for people to go ahead and do business with us,
come to our country. It's cheaper for them to come

(38:13):
here for us to go there. There's a lot of
things that benefit us when the dollar is lower. But somehow,
some way, we got to figure out what's going to
happen here and why it's happening. One of the things
we keep hearing about is this a sovereign wealth fund
that Trump did an executive offers. You know, countries that
have that, they support their countries with that. It's an

(38:36):
investming fund. They buy stocks, they buy bonds, it's they
control and help out their own countries with the extra
door they have. But where do we get that from.
What happens if that all of a sudden they monetize
everything with gold? Okay, does that send the prices up
to everything? Does everything now change on what's happening. And
I don't know. There's something higher than I know what's

(38:59):
going on. But there's something different about this gold move
that I've ever seen before.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
He hasn't made sense for six months, Dean, and we've
been talking about Todd thinks it's a what's the word
I want to use? Effort?

Speaker 4 (39:12):
Yeah, I think it's an attack on the DO and
very well could.

Speaker 2 (39:16):
But is there but but obviously if there is, we're
allowing it to happen.

Speaker 3 (39:20):
Also, how do you stop it?

Speaker 4 (39:22):
Yeah, there is a point to that. Like Dave says,
how do you stop it? I mean, there is a
lot of shadow bank where the Federal Reserve, they talk
about this all the time. They control the money supply,
but there's a third of the money to play out
there that the Fed cannot control because it's outside of
the purview of their regulations what they control. It's pretty complicated,
but really it's true there's a large part of the
economy that they call dark money. They don't know where

(39:43):
it is, what's what it's, what's happening with it?

Speaker 1 (39:46):
But is that is that?

Speaker 2 (39:47):
Is that the long term goal here of a sovereign
wealth fund for the United States of America to be
able to have this extra money to be able to
do the things that they want to do. But where's
it come from. It's got to come from someplace from US,
you know what I'm saying.

Speaker 1 (39:59):
From US.

Speaker 3 (40:00):
It's got in a bitcoin business. Might as well be
in the sovereign wealth business, right could It could be something?

Speaker 4 (40:05):
A great idea is, you know, for people under thirty
or forty, you start putting a tiered part of whatever
your SOL scurity, maybe twenty five percent or fifty percent
of what you've been paying in sole security starts to
go into maybe like a sovereign wealth fund, and start
rethinking the idea of what SOL security needs to be
looking like because it needs to be invested. It can't
just be based on all the time.

Speaker 2 (40:26):
I mean, money's there with io US, see and see.
And here here's the thing you remember and I know
all I've talked to you about my plan about social security,
that event and we start in two thousand would almost
be there. And because it's a thirty year plan that
eventually what happens is the money you have in social
security that you plow you and your employee both put
into your into your social security fund, your personal social

(40:49):
security fund. You're buying us botom government bonds with right,
you're buying our own government bonds. And we don't need
China and everybody else in the world supporting our bond system.
We have our own and we become wealthy that way,
and interest rates stay lower.

Speaker 3 (41:03):
Here's the problem. It takes every single penny the young
people are contributing to pay a fraction of the claims
right now, so there's no extra money to start this
other creative Oh, I.

Speaker 2 (41:15):
Understand that, But we have to look twenty five or
thirty years out, Dave. They have to make a change.
And if somewhere along the line there say that, say
the fifteenth to the thirtieth year, we have to have
subsidy from the government, okay, of three hundred four hundred,
five hundred billion dollars and it goes down. It's the
same amount of money we give around the world. And

(41:36):
if we go broke, you think the world is going
to start writing us checks.

Speaker 3 (41:39):
Nobody. No one's gonna write us checks nobody.

Speaker 2 (41:41):
And all these people that keep thinking all poor them,
poor them, they're not thinking about oh, poor us and
all because when that happens guess what, it ain't getting better.

Speaker 4 (41:53):
Also, people, I've heard this a lot because of the media,
China owns US because they own all of our debts.
It's just not true.

Speaker 1 (42:01):
Got fact.

Speaker 4 (42:02):
In fact, they're not even like the top three. Japan
owns the most of our debt. They own like nine percent.
Most of our debt is owned by US Americans institutions,
financial institutions is not owned by China. They onwn like
three percent. Have they been selling our debt? Yes, they
have been. That's why rates have shot up. I mean
they are trying to have a conservative effort to keep
rates high because they know we have a lot of

(42:22):
debt being refinanced in a year from now and in
twenty seven. If they keep rates high, that puts pressure
on the US government to potentially force Trump to not
be as powerful in this trade ward negotiation.

Speaker 3 (42:34):
No, from lifetime, it's a lot easier to bring the
person above you down it is for you to get
up to them.

Speaker 5 (42:40):
So yeah, that seems like they're really the biggest effort
right now is to get those interest rates high because
like we've been talking about the last couple of weeks,
is the idea of the adjustable rates that are going
to becoming due in the next couple of years, which
is roughly thirty six trillion dollars worth of debt that's
going to be renewed or readjusted. So, I mean, that's
a lot of debt. If the rates aren't lower by then,

(43:00):
it's hurt a lot of people. Can put a lot
of stress on the economy. So it's a big issue.
And I know China's probably just thinking, Okay, that's really
our only negotiating tool right now. But how much can
they sell off before it doesn't matter.

Speaker 3 (43:13):
China doesn't have a really doesn't have a chance of
winning this trade war. I don't care, you know, they don't.
I guess the big thing for China is they don't
have to answer to their people, right, just shut up,
go over there and h we don't have that ability.
So we're going to our leaders are going to get
more pressure.

Speaker 4 (43:30):
Than their leaders. So that's China's only hope.

Speaker 3 (43:32):
But they sell us five widges for every one we
sell them.

Speaker 1 (43:35):
They talk about your client that just came back from two.

Speaker 3 (43:37):
Weeks, came back from too. He actually was there for
the past two weeks. What an amazing time to be
in China, and he said workers are scared. Many of
the factories are temporarily shutting down. I've got another client
who said his firm is able to buy things that
cost from China just to keep the factory operating. This

(43:58):
is two weeks in Imagine if we're two months into this,
what's going on over there? Their economy would be in collapse.

Speaker 2 (44:05):
And I wish our media and our economists would understand
this more and tell people in America more like this,
because people just think that China is this thing that
can just roll by themselves.

Speaker 1 (44:17):
Bottom line is, China has no middle class. None.

Speaker 2 (44:21):
They talk about us, they have no middle class, which
is why they have to depend on Europe and US
to be buying their goods. And if we're not buying
their goods because of the tariffs, they need their own
people to buy it. Their own people can't buy anything.
They can't afford to buy it because they're working for
a dollar or two an hour.

Speaker 3 (44:39):
Right, we're just two weeks into this thing. They are
already feeling at big time. Are we feeling at big time?

Speaker 1 (44:44):
No?

Speaker 4 (44:44):
No, but you're gonna act like we are because then
you turn on the TV and that's what they're just
speeling off and on and on, and the people don't
understand the game theory of what Trump's playing. He understands
that China has maybe four weeks max that they could
handle onto this game before they have after cave in
coming to negotiations, and they're already talking. I mean, we
saw a Friday that Trump's putting together a bill to

(45:07):
not a bill, but an agreement to keep TikTok, and
now the deals in China hands. So there's already talks
that are going to start. You know, two weeks from now,
we're most likely going to have a deal because they
can't sort.

Speaker 1 (45:17):
Of start with Japan and Vietnam. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (45:19):
I mean also a few days early last week, China
fired their top negotiator with the US because they weren't
doing a good job.

Speaker 2 (45:26):
Which, by the way, you know, all these teriff things
had it going on, and we can't raise rates because
a lower rates? Why did you lower their rates? How
could they lower their rates? How could they lower rates?
But we can't.

Speaker 1 (45:38):
Oh, I mean, they're in the same situation we are.

Speaker 4 (45:41):
They have a way worse economy. I mean, I don't
think they're that bad as China, but I think the
entire world is way worse than us, and I don't
think we realized that.

Speaker 1 (45:50):
M I agree with you, we realize it.

Speaker 4 (45:53):
I just think Americans in general, they just think that
obviously it's just so bad, but it's not.

Speaker 3 (45:59):
No, it's just got back from a weekend in Mexico
and said, we are so lucky.

Speaker 4 (46:03):
Yeah, he'll be on the show letter with that family.

Speaker 3 (46:05):
And he came back and he said, I so appreciate
my life and my job.

Speaker 4 (46:10):
Well, I was talking to Matthew and Dean Son about
how a lot of people don't realize in Europe their
mortgages are adjustable rates every five years. You get a
new rate every more you can't that's your choice, That's
how it is. You might be able to do a
seven year adjustble instead of five year, but they're adjustables.
Imagine every every set five seven years. You don't know
what your life is gonna look like, your cash flow
is gonna look like. And we just take it for granted.

(46:31):
Of all the things that we've built up in this
country and.

Speaker 3 (46:33):
How we're going right now with the terrorists, well, China
has come out and they said they want they need
more respect, all right, So that's that they said that publicly.
They also want someone specific to deal with. So I
mean that that sound to you like somebody who's not
interested in talking about this.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
No, they're all coming to little things, and Trump's doing
the same thing back and forth.

Speaker 1 (46:53):
Oh, TikTok, it's in China's hands. We're willing to do this.
We're willing to do that.

Speaker 2 (46:57):
What it comes down to is you get little bits
and pieces which in the end they're gonna have to
come together, and in the end Europe is gonna have
to come together if they ever want to go ahead
and keep NATO. Okay, they just do. Who else is
gonna protect them and have fun? Dexico and everything else?

Speaker 1 (47:12):
All right?

Speaker 2 (47:13):
Bottom line is we have a hard break coming up.
We'll be back for another hour of The Moneymatter Show.
As I said before, we appreciate your listening. You need
to come see us if you need to know where
you stand, how to make gate risk, what your plan is.
We will do a free financial plan for you if
you come see us.

Speaker 1 (47:29):
We'll be right back. It's the Money Matter Show.

Speaker 5 (47:32):
Welcome back to the second hour of The Money Matter Show.
I'm doing Greenberg here with Todd Glick Dave Sherwitz, Bashian Borsini,
and Dean Greenberg. We got the full house. We didn't
have a great week in the markets last week. For
those of you just tuning in, the Dow was down
two point seven percent, the SMP was down one and
a half percent, the Nasdaq was down two point six percent,
and the rest of two thousand was up one point
two percent. The interesting thing was RSP was up point

(47:54):
four percent, which is the equal way to SMP.

Speaker 3 (47:56):
How about that. Yeah, that's actually the market.

Speaker 5 (47:58):
Well, yeah, which is Marcus. So as you can see,
mostly tech. It was driven down by tech. And that's
also because the Nvidio got hit hard last week when
they were said that they can't sell five point five
billion dollars worth of product to China, so that's going
to hit them, and that that stock took a downturn.

Speaker 4 (48:16):
We talked about though, I mean day of this week.
The industrials had a good week. Boeing, I mean top
Dallas stocking.

Speaker 3 (48:22):
Monday morning, China comes down and says we're not going
to allow our airlines to buy any more Boying stock,
and the stock.

Speaker 4 (48:29):
Was performing planes.

Speaker 3 (48:31):
Thank you, I don't buy a stock either, right, Yeah,
And the stock was the best performing Dallas stock of
the week, gained about four or five percent. I had
a client call on Monday. On Tuesday and said, yeah,
I think we ought to sell Boying because they're not
gonna be able to know this is a negotiating tool.
This is and what the market is telling you is

(48:52):
none that's not going to happen.

Speaker 4 (48:53):
The stock was so long, I mean we were talking
pre pandemic uh well middle pandemic lows. I mean it
was quite impressed that it got that low. And it's
like this company is going to go out of business.
I mean, there's it.

Speaker 3 (49:04):
It's a giant game of chicken right now. And China's
using Boying and they're using the rare earth minerals yes,
and Trump is using nvidio chips and our technology in
bat Well, you're not going to get it, is well,
then you're not going to get It's just a little
children playing a big game of chicken. Yes, a big
game of chicken. It struck me that that I did

(49:27):
not know a lot about rare earth minerals. I want
to talk about that a little bit. But first of
the the nvidio thing, Uh, you want to talk a
little bit about what happened there with them down ten
percent on Wednesday after the ship maker said it's going
to take a five point five billion dollar charge tied
to this exporting of the the Age twenty graphics processors

(49:49):
to China. And what that what that says to me
is and because Trump is going to require a license.
Now this is for for now this week, this is
this week's news, right, Trump's gonna require a special license
to be able to sell to certain countries, including China
and uh in, Nvidia by saying we're gonna take that

(50:11):
five point five billion dollar charge is telling you that
they don't think they're gonna get one of those licenses.
A MD down eight hundred million. They don't think they're
gonna get one of those licenses either. I'm not down
eight hundred million, said that they'll take an eight hundred
million dollar charge. Down seven percent, Yeah, back and forth,
back and forth, now down like sixty percent from the

(50:31):
high AMD. It's just it's just gotten obliterated. But again,
these are just bargaining tools and uh that these companies
are reacting to that, well, it's because this is cya stuff.
You know, if it does, if that's our new if
this is our new world order, where China's gonna have
one hundred and fifty percent roiffs and we're gonna have
one hundred and twenty five. We got some real problems.

(50:52):
If this is the new world Order, it's not gonna
be pretty right, But it's not a new world.

Speaker 4 (50:57):
It won't be And and you're one hundred percent right.
It's a big game of chicken, and they're playing with
their variables that they have on each side. And at
the end of the day, though we know that the
AI revolution is here to stay. These companies, these new
projects that we don't even know that are going to
be coming online. There's a lot of chips. And we
were talking about the new DVR, the TV cocks box

(51:18):
that they replaced our old ones. The new one has
got to be what tenth of the size size of
a pack of cigarettes, right compared to like what used
to be a big novel, like a textbook, a VC player.
Right now it's just the side of a pack of cigarettes. Yeah,
and that pack of cigarette thing probably has more semiconductors
in it than the big you know, VCR looking things

(51:40):
phenomenal and we and it's like that's where we're headed.
And that's maybe what ten years, fifteen years, And.

Speaker 3 (51:44):
If the guy who installed them had knocked our phones
out for two days, you would all be able to
call it. If you did try to call us last week,
we do apologize. But Friday, a week aldgo, Friday at noon,
the guy came out and put in these new uh
whatever what they called cable boxes. Cable box. That's good,
that's good term. And because I can understand that it's.

Speaker 5 (52:08):
Not a ro it's the old version of a rokue.

Speaker 3 (52:10):
It's a cable I get that, but I'm thinking of
what the modem.

Speaker 5 (52:16):
That's so you can get the roku. No, this is
your generation. This is cable Yeah, I get cable box.

Speaker 3 (52:23):
I know what a cable box.

Speaker 4 (52:24):
That's all that was.

Speaker 5 (52:25):
It's just very small. The new ones are very small,
needs to be anyway.

Speaker 4 (52:29):
But that's that's the good thing about Obviously, yes there's
some turmoil with the semiconductors, but if you look at
that space, we those those companies are not going anywhere
once these tariff things get solved. There's a lot of
countries that need them regardless. And China wasn't even getting
the black ones, I mean the great ones. Anyways, the
Blackwell chips, So what happens when they start getting those

(52:51):
ones as well? I mean, nothing to be scared about
with these things.

Speaker 3 (52:56):
What's happening is opportunities are being created in a lot
of different places. When you when did you believe what
three weeks ago, four weeks ago went in Viddie was
in a one thirty five area. You think you're gonna
get a chance to buy it under one hundred? Yeah,
I mean that's.

Speaker 4 (53:12):
That's so funny. Now people are scared to do it.

Speaker 5 (53:14):
But yeah, probably we talk about that all the time.
It's just reverse thought. When the stock is on sale,
nobody wants it because it's gonna go to zero. But
when the stock is at all the time highs for
four weeks in a row, everybody wants to buy it
because it's never gonna stop going up. It's backwards thinking.
I mean, like we're talking about Boeing. It was at
what ninety two dollars a share at one point, m

(53:35):
god allay, and that was during the COVID and during
their crashes and all that stuff. They just kept having
bad news after bad news, and then all of a sudden,
in a year and a half is at two thirty.

Speaker 6 (53:44):
Again, I think the great case of that one is
Meta back in the day when they dropped to what
eighty seven dollars a share or something.

Speaker 5 (53:49):
Yeah, because nobody believes in what Zuckerberg was throwing ten
billion dollars a year into the metaverse, right, people thought,
investors thought that he was crazy, he's lost his way.
He shouldn't be the CEO anymore. They need to oust
him because he hasn't know what he's doing.

Speaker 6 (54:04):
And now people are starting to think, are these companies
spending too much in artificial intelligence now?

Speaker 3 (54:09):
Right?

Speaker 5 (54:09):
Yeaheah.

Speaker 4 (54:10):
And they're gonna say that because there isn't a lot
of revenue getting generated from these type of companies. But
that's the same build out that you have to have
that we saw on the Internet. And I do think
there is gonna be some type of maybe potential AI
crust that the same way you have the dotcom crash.
It's it's not from my opinion, what I'm reading seeing
twenty eight twenty nine is probably where you start to

(54:30):
see some profitability, like true game changing profitability from the
as Yeah, I don't think it's as close as some
of these investors are pricing in.

Speaker 3 (54:40):
No, and there's there's marvelous things going on in Ai.
Let's talk a little bit about rare earth minerals only
because they're spending the news a lot China.

Speaker 4 (54:48):
That's a good thing to talk about.

Speaker 3 (54:49):
Yeah, China, and that's their eight hundred pound club, you know, Yeah,
they've got. Yeah. Rare earth minerals are simply a set
of seventeen nearly in distinct inguigable, lustrous silver, silvery white,
hard to say, soft heavy metals. They are actually not
that rare time, They're actually not that rare. They call

(55:11):
them rare earth minerals, but they're not the rare. However,
they are crucial for modern technology smartphones, turbines, electric vehicles,
medical equipment. Over the last twenty years China and I said,
they're not rare, but they might be hard to get
because over the last twenty years, China has been scarfing
up these mines all over the world, these rare earth

(55:32):
mineral mines. So China controls eighty five to ninety percent
of the rare earth minerals, which.

Speaker 1 (55:38):
You do need.

Speaker 3 (55:39):
They may be plentiful, but they're all owned by China,
and you have to go through China to get them.
That's why they're using them as a club to give
what they want, you know, as a counter to Trump.
But rare earth manuals seventeen different minerals, pretty similar minerals,
all used in technology, not that rare, but hard to

(56:00):
get because they're controlled by one country, South America, and
you've seen them South America, South Africa, West Africa. Wherever
there's deposits a large deposits of rare earth minerals. China
has been buying them up and they've been for the
last twenty years. They've seen this, they've seen this thing coming.
And we all know they play a longer game than

(56:22):
we do. We're quarter to quarter.

Speaker 4 (56:24):
They're also allowed to play a longer game.

Speaker 1 (56:26):
They are.

Speaker 3 (56:26):
They don't they don't have the pressure from their populace
to show results like like our certain leaders do. But
if you if you're if they start talking about rare
earth minerals, keep in mind they're not rare, but they
are hard to get.

Speaker 4 (56:41):
Yeah, I mean, there's just like you said, there's rare earths,
there's chips, both sides. People got things. At the end
of the day, we have the most powerful thing, and
I think it's two most powerful things, the world reserve
currency and the strongest military in the world, which backs
up the world reserve currency.

Speaker 3 (56:57):
We are we are China's biggest customer by far, by
far by multiples. Okay, So if you wanted to have
your business do really poorly what you want to do
with anger your best customer.

Speaker 6 (57:10):
Have you heard of MP Materials? We MP Materials. This
was brought up to me by a client's son and
we did a financial plan with him, and he works
for MP Materials. They'd have a rare earth mineral sites
in California, they have one in Texas. And I was
reading something about rare earth minerals this week and it
was about the terriffs and this company, MP Materials seized

(57:33):
rare rare earth materials concentrate to China due to the
one hundred and twenty five percent tariff imposed by China.
This you know, last week stock rallied about twelve percent.
Stocks up about sixty percent year to date, It's trading
in the twenties. It's been interesting. It's coming up on
its two hundred DA and I've kind of been keeping
an eye on it for that reason.

Speaker 3 (57:51):
Good good business to be in one that was kind
of a sleepy business. We've all heard the term rare
earth minerals, but it's never been used over held over
our heads, you know, a threat.

Speaker 4 (58:03):
Yeah, something else you look at, like you said. With
the equal weight to SMP being up forty basis points
this week, the broad market not we We've seen other stocks.
We talked about Boeing, Raytheon and Lockheed definitely been doing well.
I mean, it's the potential that you have this golden Dome,
which yes it's not the Iron Dome which Evan Israel.
The idea that you're going to have missile systems around

(58:23):
the United States protecting the coastlines and the borderlines and
things like that.

Speaker 6 (58:28):
Do you know the difference between the Golden dome and
iron though.

Speaker 4 (58:31):
Yeah, one is made by Trump. That's probably what they
called golden.

Speaker 1 (58:36):
Golden head.

Speaker 6 (58:39):
But you ask there's a question, Yeah, you.

Speaker 3 (58:42):
Don't know, asked a question, we don't know.

Speaker 4 (58:44):
Thank you, Dave, Thank you, Dave.

Speaker 3 (58:46):
Right Google, right, Google to ask a question you don't
know the answer.

Speaker 4 (58:50):
That's for housekeeping next week, Yeah.

Speaker 5 (58:53):
Look it up. In the break. Speaking of Google, they
lost another anti trust law talking about monopolization. That's two
within twelve months. Stock dropped over about two percent on Thursday.
They're down about eleven percent for the year. They're just
getting hit left and right about all these monopolizations of them,
and this latest one was acquiring and maintaining monopoly power
over the open web display of publisher ad ads.

Speaker 1 (59:15):
It's all about ads.

Speaker 4 (59:17):
I know that's a really bad thing, but I do
feel like when the anti trust companies say like, yeah,
you're a monopoly, Like, isn't that you just like saying like,
you're a great business man, You've.

Speaker 3 (59:25):
Done it too well.

Speaker 5 (59:26):
Yeah, pretty much in a sense, they try and breakup
the monopoly because they're like, Okay, you got too good,
you're too big. You need to Yeah, you need to
take it down a notch in a sense, is what
they're saying. I mean, did an Apple get into that
whole thing saying they got a whole monopoly? Absolutely, but
it's the Apple ecosystem. It's like, Okay, you can go
to a different phone and use it.

Speaker 4 (59:43):
I think it's an interesting debate though, because when you
put an anti trust that is not free market right,
that is, you are now stepping in as a regulator.
That is not capitalism. It's an interesting if you have
pure capitalism. We all say we love capitalism, right, but
pure capitalism is in a system like you would have slaves,
you would have things that aren't things that we think

(01:00:04):
are good, because it's whatever the market will deem, whatever
the market will bear. Are any of us true capitalists?
Or do you think you need some level of regulation
at a at a base level.

Speaker 3 (01:00:15):
Yeah, we're a true capitalist. Amazon would own everything, Yeah,
pretty much.

Speaker 6 (01:00:20):
Googling now that you can do the bundle thing on
the streaming.

Speaker 1 (01:00:23):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:00:24):
Remember the last week's show, we were saying, isn't it
kind of weird that with all of the threats that
you're getting from China that Apple had a pretty good week,
and maybe is there a possibility that Trump's going to
carve out a niche for them? And there out the
very next day on Saturday, here he comes with his

(01:00:46):
carving out a niche for the cell phones and the computers.
It gave Apple a little boost on Monday, but it
was quickly eaten away. I don't know. Best Buy had
a real nice pop because you know, electronics are going
to be not going to be charged to tariff, and

(01:01:07):
so best Buy was really struggling. But now they all
of a sudden on Monday, were thinking, you know, it's
been very interesting. I saw this week this year away
to Place the Hide, Verizon, Team Mobile, I mean, some
of these cell phone stocks.

Speaker 4 (01:01:20):
Then I heard one point that kind of made sense
to me. It's like, how much your terish really impact
phones because most of these aren't payment plan. So if
you're paying one hundred and seventeen bucks a month and
it goes to one hundred and twenty six bucks a month,
do you really care that much? Right, it doesn't really
make you the difference of you getting the phone or not.
So that I get I guess I could understand. But

(01:01:41):
T Mobile, for example, I love the idea of partnering
with Starlink. You have Internet wherever you are in the
world with your phone. They're up twenty percent. Verizon I
think is of like sixteen percent a dividend stock, and
these phone companies are doing a big.

Speaker 1 (01:01:55):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:01:55):
These these companies are really grown.

Speaker 3 (01:01:57):
And the whole argument behind the stocks lane dead for
the last few years is there's no growth, which you
can make an argument. I mean, everybody pretty much has
a cell phone. It's not a big growth business. But
what they've done is they have figured out how to
trick us out of money?

Speaker 6 (01:02:13):
Well, I raised the question, you mean, I raised the
question earlier this week.

Speaker 4 (01:02:16):
So both of you guys, how often.

Speaker 6 (01:02:18):
Are people actually changing their phone plans? Am I trying
to shop between providers to save twenty thirty dollars a month?
Maybe if I'm looking for a new phone, sure, But
how often am I actually looking for that new phone?

Speaker 4 (01:02:29):
I think a better question is what you were saying?

Speaker 1 (01:02:30):
What was your.

Speaker 3 (01:02:32):
The things you've seen the ads on TV about and
I've talked about this on the radio. Have to tell you,
y'all are paly sick of hearing about it. But we'll
come in. We'll get a new iPhone sixteen on us. Yeah,
and well, they're gonna give me an iPhone sixteen, a
laptop and some other thing.

Speaker 6 (01:02:48):
There's no free lunch day.

Speaker 3 (01:02:49):
There is no free lunch. So here's the problem. You
have to upgrade your plan, you know. So, yeah, here's
your free phone. That'll be an extra fifty dollars a month. Wait,
I thought it was free. Oh no, you have to
go to the other plan to get that, you know. Duh.

Speaker 4 (01:03:02):
Well, and that seems how seabasts they get the other customers.
They say Hey, bring in your own fold for your
old plan, We'll give you a free phone.

Speaker 6 (01:03:09):
Well, I was just thinking because we did switch plans
not too long ago, and that's how they got It's
funny enough, and yeah, that's exactly how.

Speaker 4 (01:03:15):
They got us.

Speaker 6 (01:03:16):
I mean, it's good advertising, right, And maybe you didn't
see the growth in the past years just because you
had all these people still locked into their you know,
plans before that were actually better plans. But somehow they.

Speaker 4 (01:03:27):
Found a way to got a supercycle, right they negotiating
there was a supercycle.

Speaker 3 (01:03:32):
Yeah. And the other thing is we've we've been talking
for a year and a half about the value cycle
that we see coming. It never came last year. We
thought it would. It certainly has come this year. It's
coming when things get a little crazy, dividends start to
make a difference. When things get a little crazy, valuations
actually start to matter. I've often said that valuations don't

(01:03:53):
matter until they do.

Speaker 4 (01:03:54):
These valuations in some companies just make you really ridiculous attractive.
I mean, fsl R, that's one on a trailing basis,
they're like thirteen twelve American made Solar coming. I know,
we don't love solar with this administration, but it's American Maid.
I mean, how much better can you get right now
with products? And then another one is Novo. I mean,
this thing has just been getting killed. Novo Nordis they

(01:04:16):
make you know, the semi glue tides. But I think
you know the Dylan is talking about too with like
Boeing trading down Solo and it's like it's never gonna
it's never going to perform again, it's never going to
come back. And I think these are huge opportunities you
can look in these companies.

Speaker 3 (01:04:30):
And three a m Was at the bottom of the
thirty doustocks for a couple of years, not at the top.

Speaker 1 (01:04:35):
Right.

Speaker 4 (01:04:35):
Novo was down eight percent on Friday because another company
came out with an oral drug that let you talk
about that Lily, Yeah, Soli Lily.

Speaker 6 (01:04:43):
They rallied fifteen percent off of those news.

Speaker 4 (01:04:45):
Because the idea is that the oral drug. Everyone wants
the oral take a pill rather than have to poke
myself with a needle. No one likes needles. The problem
with that is we all know that this is only
going to go to the rich people first. That's how
it always works. It's not going to be a cheap
oral medicine.

Speaker 3 (01:04:59):
It will be interesting to see how expensive it is.
I mean, how do you uh, you don't don't generally
go in and get one pill, right right, You're generally
going to get like a little wile of pills. You're
gonna get ten of them and without one thousand bucks?
And what's it? What's it gonna be? Because that will
be interesting because the shots are pretty darn.

Speaker 4 (01:05:17):
Can you do buy now, pay later on your semi glutes.

Speaker 3 (01:05:20):
You may have to write, but the rack up later.

Speaker 7 (01:05:24):
You got Klara on your on your semi gluten sides,
order in door dash you Lily.

Speaker 3 (01:05:34):
Phase three trial of this of this oral weight loss drug,
the Mojarro, the oral version of Manjaro did show excellent results.
And of course, now then what people go to it's
a reach. Of course they look at number notice and go, well,
wait a second, Lily's going to have the pill. Everybody's
gonna want the pill. People taking ozempic and mogovi they'll stop.

(01:05:59):
So noble Nordics, you your two biggest products are now
going to be zero. Well, it's not realistic, like tod
it's not realistic.

Speaker 4 (01:06:08):
Yeah, you want to look at a mountain, pull that chart, up,
because that is one heck of a right up and
down of the NOVO. But the thing I love about
NOVO is they have a quantum research that they're that
they're trying to actually like figure out how we're going
to use quantum of quantum computing to figure out these
new drugs in the future. And that's you know, if
you're not looking at just the next two years and

(01:06:28):
you're looking the next ten years, that's the next step.
We kind of AI and Quantum.

Speaker 6 (01:06:33):
Kind of hope that they're not the first ones to
get it since they're not American based, right.

Speaker 4 (01:06:36):
You know, I think what they're they're Danish, Yeah, Mark.

Speaker 5 (01:06:41):
Yeah, But in a sense, that'll just help healthcare everywhere. Yeah,
kind of like when the guy made the seat's so yeah,
he made it better and just didn't patent it because
he wanted everybody to have it. You get quantum computing
with healthcare, it is going to just expedite everything.

Speaker 4 (01:06:54):
Yeah. I think that's the one thing where like the
financial plans we do that could throw a wrenchary thing
if people start living a one to twenty or something,
it's like, what the heck, Well, I know we're.

Speaker 5 (01:07:04):
Telling that when we do the financial plan. We're like,
all right, so for the plan, has it go men
live till ninety two, women live till ninety four is
the base, Like, we're not going to go under that,
regardless of what you say, because with modern medicine coming
up in everything, likelihood of you living longer is pretty
high compared to what was in the past. Like some people,
we have some clients they say, I don't want to
live past eighty five. It's like, okay, well we're gonna

(01:07:26):
make it ninety four then or ninety two. But the
idea is we can make it go to about one
hundred and five right now, I think even farthest we
can go out. I think maybe even further. Yeah, I
think it's the idea of like, but with the plan,
we can look at that scenario of what if I
live longer. You put everything in ninety four, but then
like what happens if I live to one hundred and ten,
one hundred and twenty. You can look at that real

(01:07:48):
time and see how it affects your plan.

Speaker 4 (01:07:49):
Will it last?

Speaker 6 (01:07:50):
It's definitely something that could throw a wrench in the
plan the health care costs. But in theory, if that
they do come out with the quantum computing with you
know in healthcare, it should make all these medical costs cheaper.

Speaker 5 (01:08:00):
Right, Well, it's not cost, it's are living longer?

Speaker 6 (01:08:03):
Well, no, that's what I mean. But how are we
going to live longer because of these drugs?

Speaker 4 (01:08:07):
Right?

Speaker 5 (01:08:08):
But it's not necessarily like the drugs are going to
be expensive. It's saying they're going to help you live longer.

Speaker 6 (01:08:12):
I think that they're going to be less expensive because well, you've.

Speaker 4 (01:08:15):
Been planning on someone dying at one hundred and then
they lived the one twenty and the money you.

Speaker 5 (01:08:20):
Don't have if you're taking seven percent out of your
account and you're thinking, Okay, I'm only going to live
ten years whatever, I'm gonna have money account. Next thing,
you know, you're living forty years. A seven percent draw
that you've been living on is going to drain your accounts.
That's what we're talking about. You can make you live long,
not the cost of healthcare. The idea that you live longer,
you need to maybe plan for that.

Speaker 4 (01:08:39):
And people's idea that they're not going to live long
with life expectancy is just not understanding how exponential growth happens.
I mean, we are on an exponential curve in improving medicine.
And that's the same thing when.

Speaker 5 (01:08:50):
Social Security started, I think, Wait, they were planning on
people only living four or five years after like sixty
sixty five was.

Speaker 4 (01:08:57):
A long life.

Speaker 3 (01:08:58):
Yeah, everyr life you're paying was very short after that. Yeah.
So you know the old question is who wants to
live to be one hundred?

Speaker 4 (01:09:04):
Right? It depends on what one hundred looks now, No,
no it.

Speaker 3 (01:09:08):
Doesn't because the answer is someone ninety nine. Yeah. Pretty so, Hey,
Tucson arrived officially. Tucson officially arrived on the planet Earth.
Uh and the top tier of cities in this country.
Last week, did you see the shake Shack announced they're
going to open in Tucson.

Speaker 1 (01:09:27):
Oh yeah, shake.

Speaker 3 (01:09:28):
Shack, the Manhattan based gourmet hamburger place where uh Fort
Lowell and Campbell right down in the in the fabrics
and go h the old fabrics and ghost store. I
guess has been got up and went. Yes, they were
serious about it. Estaberg can going now they're gone not

(01:09:52):
till next year. I got open til next year, which
is a bummer. But yeah, shake Shack, that's a that's
a big deal. Uh. There, you don't see shakeshack too
many places, but I think they opened like six locations
and sadiques, and you are thinking, well, we're kind of
running out of places open here anyplace else around here?
So we've got people?

Speaker 1 (01:10:09):
What other?

Speaker 4 (01:10:10):
I know, you got some fun facts for Easter? What's
going on?

Speaker 3 (01:10:12):
I don't have any fun factor. I honestly don't. Really, No,
I don't have anything. I was I used it up
last week? When about the most popular candy?

Speaker 1 (01:10:20):
Or was it?

Speaker 5 (01:10:20):
I wasn't here last week.

Speaker 3 (01:10:21):
Oh, you were the most popular candy, not Easter candy.
The most popular candy in the United States? Period?

Speaker 1 (01:10:28):
Oh? Period?

Speaker 3 (01:10:28):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:10:29):
What do you know?

Speaker 3 (01:10:30):
What did you think I would have lost this one?

Speaker 4 (01:10:32):
I got it right?

Speaker 3 (01:10:33):
You did?

Speaker 1 (01:10:33):
Did you get it?

Speaker 4 (01:10:34):
Rights?

Speaker 1 (01:10:38):
Were they?

Speaker 3 (01:10:38):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:10:38):
Honestly in their eastern favorite asked my daughter.

Speaker 3 (01:10:41):
My daughter just turned forty and I asked her that,
and she's just favor for anybody under forty knows this well.

Speaker 5 (01:10:47):
They're also I mean they got the rest Easter egg chop.

Speaker 4 (01:10:51):
You gotta put the reeses in the fridge and then
you eat.

Speaker 3 (01:10:53):
Them, get them hard. I think any candy is better
than the fridge, right, I think so?

Speaker 1 (01:10:57):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:10:58):
Pretty much. I like to put this news bar in
the fridge. Really with the chocolate bar in the fridge.
The funny part dealing is that the Reci's peanut butter
cup our sells the Hershey chocolate bar two to one. Yeah,
two to one. That's amazing. Good, that's amazing. So that's,
you know, something to something to think about.

Speaker 4 (01:11:17):
Way, we're coming up on the end of this break,
we are Boston Marathon. I'm doing it when on Monday,
the day after this records on Monday. Yes, this upcoming Monday, we.

Speaker 5 (01:11:27):
Can watch it.

Speaker 4 (01:11:27):
I'm not going to be here.

Speaker 3 (01:11:28):
Dave realized you have it on a Monday, so people
work for a living.

Speaker 4 (01:11:33):
It's the one hundredth and nineteenth of it, one hundred
and twenty ninth running.

Speaker 3 (01:11:38):
Maybe one day you can make New York. That's a
harder one. I understand.

Speaker 4 (01:11:41):
New York is the easier one.

Speaker 3 (01:11:42):
No, New York's harder one to get into.

Speaker 4 (01:11:44):
No, it's nuts.

Speaker 3 (01:11:44):
Oh I was told that was much harder.

Speaker 4 (01:11:46):
Than I could guy into New York this year.

Speaker 3 (01:11:48):
Oh, we'll find out. Anyway, Good luck to watch for
Todd on Monday and I'm running the Boston Marathon, and
hopefully you're still on his feet. We'll be right back.

Speaker 6 (01:11:57):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Borsini here with Todd Glick Junior, David Sherwood, and
Dylan Greenberg. I do have a fun fact, easter fun.

Speaker 4 (01:12:04):
Factor for you.

Speaker 3 (01:12:05):
Yeah, I thick grip down.

Speaker 6 (01:12:07):
Over the past twenty years, US consumers have spent how
much on average on Eastern candy that year?

Speaker 1 (01:12:15):
Ye?

Speaker 3 (01:12:16):
Six billion?

Speaker 6 (01:12:17):
Okay, Doud, Oh.

Speaker 4 (01:12:20):
Gosh, I don't know how you had a number that quick.
I was a thirteen.

Speaker 6 (01:12:23):
Billion, three point one billion, Dave.

Speaker 3 (01:12:26):
Not impressive. Okay, it wasn't that fun, My guys, pick
it up.

Speaker 4 (01:12:29):
It seems it wasn't that. It was not a fun
It wasn't that fun. Was a fact I was trying
to get. I was trying to throw a statistic behind.

Speaker 3 (01:12:37):
That fun fact that this is money matters.

Speaker 4 (01:12:39):
How about you asked Chad GBT for a fun fact.

Speaker 6 (01:12:41):
I did, This is money matters.

Speaker 3 (01:12:43):
That's like, what's the square rid of one hundred and
forty four?

Speaker 1 (01:12:45):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:12:45):
Fact. Now, it's not a fun fact.

Speaker 4 (01:12:47):
It's like a compounding all right or whatever? You know.

Speaker 3 (01:12:48):
Okay, so you know what has been.

Speaker 4 (01:12:50):
Happening this week? We got a couple of calls, just
people who are saying, hey, I just want to know,
am I okay? If I wanted to retire right now?
Things haven't been going to work with the tariff things,
some administrations at workers saying, you know, we might not
have to we might have to lay you off, or
we're not quite sure where the future of the business
is going. We've heard that from quite a lot of people, right,

(01:13:11):
And so there's a just uncertainty of if I was fired,
what does my plan look like? If I'm not working
in a year or in three months from now, what
does my plan do? I was planning to retire in
two years, three years, four years, but now I might
retire next month, right? How bad is it if that happens.
We can run those scenarios for you. We can run
what if scenarios if you're a current client, past client,

(01:13:32):
if you aren't a client yet, we can do it
for you. We just have to have an understanding of
what you currently got going on. We'll build out that
initial financial plan, play with all the variables. See what
you're spending, see what's coming in the door. We'll play
with the inflation rates, We'll play with bad investment returns,
but we'll see what the true risks are for your
plan and build out a scenario for you. But on
top of that, what we love to do is use

(01:13:53):
our risk analyzing tool because what this will allow us
to do is after putting in all your portfolio holdings
into the software, we'll get an out actual risk number
from one to one hundred. Say it's seventy seven and
you come in at a sixty. We know your portfolio
is to aggress too much aggressive on the allocation compared
to what your risk tolerance is, so we can lower
or show you what a portfolio looks like as sixty

(01:14:13):
and what it means if another market drop happens, but
also what it means if you de risk your portfolio
here when the market's low, Because if you de risk
your porfolio when the market's low, it's not technically selling,
but it means that you're not going to have the
same pop when the markets do come back. So I
had a couple of clients where they're like, what if
we just you know, I want to freeze the account.
That's that was their term. They want to freeze the account,

(01:14:34):
stop the dropping, right, And you can't tell them that
it's not going to maybe drop more because it can.
But the idea of de risking your portfolio when the
market's low is the exact opposite of what we should
be doing. I was telling the client what we do
now is actually buy like we've been doing.

Speaker 1 (01:14:50):
Right.

Speaker 4 (01:14:51):
You put that conservative side to work, and then when
we get back to the market, all the time highs
and we keep climbing higher, hiering, and it starts to
feel like it's everyone's happy. That's when we de risk.
We take the risk side, sell it off, and put
it to the cash side and the safe side.

Speaker 3 (01:15:04):
So you've got a twenty percent discount on the S
and P five hund or something you almost never see.
Right now, we're down fifteen right now, roughly fifteen, but
twenty percent off of the high. When you drop below
five thousand, you get a twenty percent drop in anything
you're interested in buying. And you don't buy and it
comes back to full price, you just have to be

(01:15:25):
kicking yourself, and that's gonna happen here.

Speaker 4 (01:15:28):
Also, I think this drop hurts a lot of people
more than past drops because of the last two to
two and a half years of just such good growth.
So you're always happy when the market. When you're account
getting hired hired higher, your liquidation value on your portfolio
is getting higher, hired higher. But guess what happens when
you gets higher compounding the dollar value fluctuations in your

(01:15:49):
account are going to get bigger and bigger. That's not
a bad thing, it just means that you can't have
the same idea of a ten thousand drop meaning to
you emotionally. It can't have the same emotional meaning that
when you're count was at one hundred thousand, ten thousand,
drop one hundred thousand. That's a ten percent drop. That's
pretty meaningful. A thousand dollars drop on a one million
dollar portfolio is not meaningful. It's one percent. So you

(01:16:10):
cannot have the same emotional feeling of a temp thousand
dollars drop when your account has ballooned in size over
the last two years.

Speaker 3 (01:16:17):
Right exactly. And we often talk on the show about
how we don't follow the Dow, we follow the s
and P five hundred. I will say for the Dow committed,
they do a pretty good job of finding thirty stocks
that perform pretty close to the five hundred stocks in

(01:16:37):
the SMP five hundred, But every now and then. For
if you went home on Thursday afternoon and said, how
did the market do? And you turn on the TV
and you see the Dow Jones industrial averages down five
hundred points, you don't realize that the actual market was up.
The overall market was up. The Dow thirty was down

(01:16:59):
five hundred points because of one stock, United Healthcare, you know,
had Healthcare. It was up fifteen to fifteen percent this year.
They've actually been making a pretty nice comeback after the
murder of their CEO, but it plunged twenty percent on Thursday.
They missed earnings by just a few pennies, but they
did give disappointing guidance. There's been some positive things for

(01:17:22):
the company from the Trump administration, but it gives you
an example. On Friday, the excuse me. On Thursday, the
S and P five hundred finished the day up five points.
I think it was the Dow Jones industrial average. The
thirty stock average was down five hundred That's not representative
of what went on. That's one of the reasons we had.

Speaker 4 (01:17:41):
Dow on Friday looked like it was just disconnected. Yeah, ridiculous.
That showed the weekends of having only thirty stocks in
an index.

Speaker 3 (01:17:47):
Yeah, that's why we don't follow us. That's why we
follow the S and P five hundred. Speaking of which,
the worst performing stocks in the S and P five
hundred so far in twenty twenty five number one Decker
Outdoor the shock down for they've been citing tariffs on
China and Vietnam.

Speaker 4 (01:18:06):
Well that's also if you don't remember, that's the people
who make like the Hocus and uh, you know, we
know all about Hokus in this office. Do you know
ordered thirteen pairs of Hocus?

Speaker 3 (01:18:18):
Yeah, I saw that thirteen pair.

Speaker 4 (01:18:20):
Yeah, and it wasn't a misty. Explained how that it
wasn't a mistake.

Speaker 3 (01:18:24):
It's kind of funny.

Speaker 4 (01:18:25):
Actually, well, he didn't want to go to the running
store to to try on eleven and a half or
eleven and a half wides.

Speaker 3 (01:18:32):
Filind triff was eleven and a half or eleven right
eleven and a half versus eleven and a half wide
with right. Yeah, so he ordered five pairs of each.
It sounds like something my wife wouldnt.

Speaker 4 (01:18:47):
Yeah. Yeah, he's such a good man though, because instead
of returning them, he starts just giving him away to
like his coaches.

Speaker 3 (01:18:53):
And you know, yeah, no, that's too Denius.

Speaker 4 (01:18:57):
He's very generous. I mean that's why I work for
him is because he coached me in lacrosse in high school.

Speaker 3 (01:19:04):
Yeah, and I work for him because he needs me
well as opposed to because he've coached me in high school.

Speaker 4 (01:19:09):
Oh yeah, you don't want to tell your story about you, kid,
but see my story is he He gave me a lot,
you know, and he's always been a generous man. And
that's what I think the listeners really gravitate to when
we come to the plan. Sometimes they just love hearing
Dean and want to talk to Dean just specifically because
they've been listening to him for so many times.

Speaker 3 (01:19:26):
When he comes across as honest because he is.

Speaker 4 (01:19:29):
Oh he's one hundred percent.

Speaker 3 (01:19:30):
I mean, you just you never have to guess what
how Dean, what Dean's thinking, or what do you want
to deal with? Somebody who's reasonably priced, works hard, honest,
that's us. I mean, that's who we are, because that's
who Dean is.

Speaker 4 (01:19:44):
But also we've given a lot back in ways that
you're not going to see unless you would actually know
us personally.

Speaker 3 (01:19:50):
Dean especially unbelievable I think a lot of.

Speaker 4 (01:19:53):
People with his personality, you would think he's not the
generous type of person that he is.

Speaker 1 (01:19:58):
Trump.

Speaker 3 (01:19:59):
Yeah, right, very good way put Trump. You'll hate him,
But if you hate him, you don't know him. Yes,
I mean it's that simple. There's nothing to hate about
this guy. Kind of like Elon Musk. Oh, there's nothing
hate about him. I must one of the one of
the heroes. I mean, it's just an incredible human being.

Speaker 4 (01:20:15):
Uh. It makes me really mad when people say Elon
Musk didn't build his businesses, like he didn't take the risks.

Speaker 3 (01:20:22):
Yeah, he called idiot.

Speaker 4 (01:20:24):
He was working, sleeping at his office. I mean, the
guy almost bankrupted himself after being one hundred millionaire. I mean,
you made a hundred million dollars, what are you doing?
Don't bet all your one hundred million dollars in another company?

Speaker 3 (01:20:35):
He did that and one idiot.

Speaker 4 (01:20:39):
And then you get mad at him for taking the
biggest bet going against an industry of car makers that
no one at the time said, you were absolutely stupid.
You're what are you thinking you're gonna get going against
the gms of the world, and forge you're gonna lose?
And he almost did two thousand and eight happens almost
completely bankrupt turns the company completely around, and now he

(01:21:00):
got lucky or given he was given.

Speaker 3 (01:21:03):
The company put more electric vehicles on the roads, and
every other car company.

Speaker 4 (01:21:06):
Combined saved astronauts from space after creating that car company,
making another company because NASA said, no, you know what,
we can't do it five hundred because the government doesn't
know how to run operations. So NASA completely shuts down,
stops all space funding space flights. And think about if
we never have SpaceX get created, how do those astronauts
get saved? Because NASA wouldn't have done it.

Speaker 3 (01:21:26):
One of his companies has a has a device that
you implant in your brain that will help people who
are paralyzed move. I mean, yeah, what pro Why wouldn't
you hate this guy?

Speaker 4 (01:21:35):
It's proven that they can do.

Speaker 3 (01:21:36):
I mean, why wouldn't you hate this guy building.

Speaker 4 (01:21:38):
Tunnels underground, solving our traffic war? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:21:42):
And the number two was performing stock on the S
and P year today it is yes, Tesla. Isn't that
something after? You know?

Speaker 4 (01:21:52):
I mean quick take a picture. I mean what two
months ago he was doing just fine?

Speaker 1 (01:21:57):
Right?

Speaker 3 (01:21:57):
And isn't this the same guy? That supported Biden. Have
we all forgotten that?

Speaker 4 (01:22:03):
I forgot?

Speaker 1 (01:22:05):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:22:05):
Did absolutely like verbally absolutely, yeah, he was a Biden supporter.

Speaker 4 (01:22:09):
I don't think at the same level that he is
a Trump's.

Speaker 3 (01:22:11):
No, No, the Trump thing is fair.

Speaker 4 (01:22:13):
It's pretty hard.

Speaker 3 (01:22:14):
I get that. I get that, And I don't know
that people hate Musk so much as they hate Trump,
and Musk is a way to get there's actually something
physical you can hate that helps you well.

Speaker 4 (01:22:27):
Also, I think it's just unfortunate that people on the
left will think that if you voted for Trump you
have what they deem as these are your core values,
you're a terrible human being, because they think anyone who
voted for Trump has to be a terrible human.

Speaker 1 (01:22:41):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:22:41):
And it's just it's so sad that you have generalized
tribal mentality, because it's exactly how things like war, the Holocaust,
the worst things humanity has ever created, is when they
have tribal mindsets like that, where they live in an
echo chamber, saying I'm right and only me is right,
my group is right. You can't tell me I'm ever wrong.
That's sad.

Speaker 3 (01:23:01):
I'm coming up on two years of driving Mike Tesla
and Uh, it's the I've been fortunate enough over the
years to have owned almost every brand of luxury car
that is out there, and none of them will hold
a candle to this car. And I always jokingly say,
in the last three months, I've driven a tree hugger

(01:23:23):
car and a Nazi car and never changed cars. If
it's been amazing, But the problem is my car when
I does not know whether to turn left or right,
it's very confused. The car is very confused.

Speaker 4 (01:23:36):
Yeah, it wants to even go straight. But that's not
an option.

Speaker 3 (01:23:39):
Yeah, going straight not an option, not in this not
in this country, in this country. Not because if you
if you're not left or right, then you're an idiot. Right,
it's something, something is the matter.

Speaker 4 (01:23:48):
With Yeah, there's a double joke, but it's it's.

Speaker 3 (01:23:52):
Unfortunate that we've gotten a point in this country where
where compromise is a sign of weakness.

Speaker 4 (01:23:57):
And yeah, yeah, I mean you can just look at
how none of the blue will vote for the red
red blue. We need the change in this country.

Speaker 3 (01:24:04):
Not a single Democratic senator would say, yes, it's wrong
for men to be in women's sports when the country
believe that, Are you kidding me? What that's that's that's
party ahead of country. We'll be back right after this
break with more. The last segment actually of the Money
Matter Show. Happy Easter.

Speaker 4 (01:24:22):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Todglick.
I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Sebastian Borsini and David Sherwood.

Speaker 1 (01:24:29):
Man.

Speaker 4 (01:24:30):
We've had tumultuous last couple of months gone. I know,
I don't even know if I said the word right.
I just gotta go with it, don't bring it back up,
don't point it out. We've had new Money Matter shows
being aired this week. Dylan and Dean will be on
after Meet the Press.

Speaker 3 (01:24:50):
These are the educational, educational, but.

Speaker 4 (01:24:52):
We just did them. They're really good.

Speaker 3 (01:24:53):
Yeah, they're fresh.

Speaker 1 (01:24:54):
I love them.

Speaker 4 (01:24:55):
This Sea Beast will start putting them on The YouTube
promises radio show to be all good. We're up and
running every single week. But more than that, we apologize
again for our phones being down on Monday and Tuesday.
Really odd, weird. Hopefully never happened again. Occurrence, but our
phone we were not busy. Might have sounded like our
phones are busy. That's what it was saying. We were

(01:25:16):
not busy. We were here just.

Speaker 3 (01:25:18):
Now had a young guy come in and change out
the cable boxes, and when he left, we noticed that
our phones were down. Well, on a Friday afternoon, you're
not going to get anybody to come out. Monday, we start,
We get ahold of the phone company. They come on,
they go, no, it's definitely the cable company. So back
we go to the cable company and first thing Tuesday

(01:25:38):
morning they come out. But we were without phones from
noon Friday until Tuesday mornings. And what they said is
it looks like there's a connection that's loose. They were
doing it, trying to do it remotely. And so I'm
in there in this phone room, which is full of
wires run all over the place. I'm thinking, I can't
even imagine what if I would have just pushed every

(01:25:59):
one of them in a little bit more, I could
have fixed the problem, because that's all was. It was
one wire that this kid had had pulled out and
had not put back in all the way, so there
was no connection. And he walked in there. The guy
from the cocks showed up five minutes he said, okay,
I'm done. I said, you got to get kidding me.

(01:26:19):
And he takes me in there and shows me one clip.
All I had to is push it in, and.

Speaker 5 (01:26:24):
We just don't know what clip it was.

Speaker 3 (01:26:25):
So like twenty five wires back there, and I guess
I could have pushed every one of them in. That
wouldn't have been that big.

Speaker 4 (01:26:32):
That's that's the lesson, just pushing in les.

Speaker 3 (01:26:35):
Yeah, it's like it's like I'm the it guy here
in the office because I know that when you have
something wrong with your computer, you turn it off, yeah,
and then turn it back on and oft times the
problem will be solved.

Speaker 5 (01:26:45):
I plug it restarted.

Speaker 4 (01:26:46):
Got anything on Costco this week?

Speaker 3 (01:26:48):
Uh? No, other than it did? It did well?

Speaker 4 (01:26:50):
It was doing well, I mean five percent last week,
up three.

Speaker 3 (01:26:52):
Painting that as the economy slows down, people will be
sent to places like TJX and Costco and Walmart. They'll
they'll get more business.

Speaker 4 (01:27:02):
Where's Kirkland made And we got to figure that out.
That's no where? Oh yeah, because we know Kirkland signature.
Do we know is it made in America or is
it made in Actually?

Speaker 3 (01:27:14):
Yeah, But there's an awfully a lot of things to
carry the Krookland brand, So you're thinking they all come
from a Kirkland factory.

Speaker 4 (01:27:20):
Somewhere I don't know might happen good housekeeping on right now.

Speaker 3 (01:27:23):
The one that puzzles me, and we certainly know from
the numbers I gave in the first hour, that car
sales are red hot. Everybody's trying to get their car before.
If you need a car, you want to get it before.
They both use cars and new both.

Speaker 5 (01:27:37):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:27:38):
Uh. The inventory level for new cars that dropped from
like seventy days to fifty days and the used cars
that dropped from forty five to thirty nine days. And
so those are and we thought going into this tariff
tantrum area that there would probably be opportunity in the
used car area, and of course car Man is one

(01:28:00):
of the big names there and Carmacks actually did rally
about ten percent in the first the last couple of
weeks of March in anticipation, well there's going to be
tariffs and the used car market is going to be
a better place for people to go with the new cars.
But then they reported earnings that were a little soft.
Now again, earnings for the last three months nothing to
do with it this tariff time, and they were a

(01:28:24):
little softer than expected. This doc drop twenty percent dropped
another ten percent last week, so it's thirty percent off
of is high in what ought to be a company
that does really really well going forward.

Speaker 4 (01:28:39):
We get a lot of earnings report next week, some
big companies like the fence contractors. You're gonna get Tesla yep,
which fun We know we just got Netflix on Friday.
We talked about that in the first part of the show.
How almost kind of turning it into a consumer staple play,
which has been very interesting. It's been holding in there
almost better than any other Max seven has over the
course of this tariff tantrum that we've seen. So we

(01:29:00):
were wondering are they able to hold their gains into
this earnings report that seems like they've been performing too well,
and then they're two percent higher after market after that
report came out and they really beat almost on all
levels that looked like so doing really strong on the
Netflix side, and like I said, maybe turned it into
a consumer defensive play as a growth company. Yeah, well,
kind of funny.

Speaker 3 (01:29:20):
I would I would think that they just as an observer,
I would think that the first quarter twenty twenty five
earnings reports that are going to be coming out over
the next few weeks. Maybe as irrelevant as any earnings
reports that I've ever expected, because this chaos didn't start
until April. So what happened in the first three months

(01:29:42):
of this year was you know, you go back thirty
days ago, it was a totally different world than we
have today before this this tariff chaos. So tariff tantrum
started to really ugly, had night and day difference.

Speaker 4 (01:29:56):
His market's so volatile though they we have we've had
many economic reports that are backwards facing. The market acts like, yeah, exactly,
the market rack.

Speaker 3 (01:30:05):
Like it's with weaker than expecting. You think that's going
to continue into this quarter? Right, the stocks down thirty
percent because you think that their business is gonna slow down.

Speaker 4 (01:30:14):
Seems like some investors are driving with the review mirror.
It sounds like the FED.

Speaker 6 (01:30:17):
I have some estimated global manufacturing breakdown for Kirkland signature products.

Speaker 1 (01:30:21):
Oh it's worldwide, that is world wide, worldwide.

Speaker 6 (01:30:23):
The United States is about fifty to sixty percent of
it though, and it is dependent on which product of course.

Speaker 5 (01:30:28):
Yeah, the butter is made in New Zealand, So factories
in New Zealand.

Speaker 6 (01:30:32):
Oh wow, So like the United States, they produce batteries diapers,
motor oil, coffee, mattresses, bottled water, Mexico ten to fifteen
percent tequila, avocados, limes, mangoes, Yeah, Canada ten to fifteen
percent maple syrup.

Speaker 4 (01:30:47):
How cool would that job be? You know, you're the
owner of the Kirkland brands, and you're like, yeah, this,
this is the best place for tequila. We gotta go
to Mexico. This place is for butter. Let's go to
New Zealand. Let's go over here for oranges.

Speaker 5 (01:30:58):
I mean the batteries are made at the dirself factory.

Speaker 3 (01:31:01):
Imagine how much power Costco has in this world when
they decide that they want to put something on the shelf.

Speaker 5 (01:31:07):
Oh my, but and then they make it from Kirkland,
and the way they do their store is just chaos.

Speaker 1 (01:31:12):
So they didn't.

Speaker 4 (01:31:12):
Always have Kirkland. That was one of the greatest purchases
of Costco.

Speaker 3 (01:31:17):
Kirkland.

Speaker 4 (01:31:17):
Yeah, they bought it.

Speaker 1 (01:31:18):
They know that.

Speaker 4 (01:31:19):
Yeah, I saw this on the CNBC. I didn't watch
the whole video, but it's a video on the CNBC
release and said one of the best moves that Costco
ever made buying Kirkland signature.

Speaker 3 (01:31:27):
It is amazing, just as an overall mark, and I
don't disagree with Dean. I think he probably is on track.
We finished with the S and P at five thousand
to eighty two. I think if it gets under five thousand,
you've got to buy something. I think if it gets
above fifty seven fifty eight hundred, you probably need to

(01:31:47):
lighten up on something. I think if Nvidia gets back
to one twenty five, one thirty, you've got to lighten up.
I think if Nvidia gets down around eighty five ninety,
you gotta buy it.

Speaker 4 (01:31:57):
Load up, you know.

Speaker 3 (01:31:58):
Yeah, I did to load.

Speaker 4 (01:31:59):
Up to load up on quality names. And I agree
with you, David. I think low April, maybe low in
April at the end of April.

Speaker 3 (01:32:07):
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised.

Speaker 4 (01:32:08):
And then I think quarter two is really strong. I
think back half of twenty five as iffy.

Speaker 3 (01:32:12):
April is the second historically the second best month of
the year for the market. But of course that's been all.
You can throw that out.

Speaker 4 (01:32:19):
Yeah, you've never had tariffs in April before.

Speaker 3 (01:32:21):
No history is and again it's a reminder of the
history is simply a guide. It's not an absolute we've seen.
I think it was there was one month last year,
that's historically the worst. It was the only month that
was up in a ninety day period. So it's a
it's a it's just a guide. The Hewlett Packard came

(01:32:42):
out after hitting it. This is this is doc talk
about volatile. It hit a fifty two week high January
twenty second. Helott Packard dropped fifty percent since January twenty second,
hit a new two year low on April the fourth,
but on Tuesday a jump five percent after Elliott Management
the hedge five disclosed a position in the stock and

(01:33:03):
you know, drop fifty percent. Probably we can probably do
something to fix this. I think one of the better
performing areas over the past couple of weeks has been
the major banks. The major banks have really done well.
I think the uh for a five day period ending
in April fifteenth, the bank ETF had rallied nine percent.
I believe it was.

Speaker 6 (01:33:24):
I mean, I don't know how terrorifts are going to
directly impact banking stocks.

Speaker 3 (01:33:30):
The you know, the bank stocks.

Speaker 6 (01:33:32):
Yeah, yeah, I definitely, I mean very indirectly. If anything.

Speaker 4 (01:33:36):
I think, almost like we said, this is a tariff tantrum.
Half of what these socks have been hit are not
going to be impacted the way investors have punished them for.

Speaker 3 (01:33:44):
Being Yeah, it's like Tesla was down seven percent on
Wednesday after Reuters came out and said that the suspension
of his tariff tantrum is going to cause the suspension
of importing of components from China for cyber cab been
semi electric truck production and it could hurt Tesla. And
I'm thinking, isn't Tesla the most made in America car?

(01:34:07):
And I believe the Tesla model? Why is one hundred
percent made in America? How does that have anything to
do with it? But down seven percent on that news.
Who knows your PDD Holdings made made the news? Did
you see that your Timu? No PDD Holdings is the
parent company of Timu.

Speaker 4 (01:34:26):
The thing that destroyed twenty one or whatever they call it,
forever twenty one? What about it forever twenty one? They said,
that's the reason bank because of remember, oh.

Speaker 5 (01:34:37):
For the second time they had to go bankrupt.

Speaker 4 (01:34:38):
Yeah, and that was it wasn't their fault, it was
t Mochin.

Speaker 5 (01:34:41):
It wasn't our fault.

Speaker 1 (01:34:43):
Bankrup twice.

Speaker 3 (01:34:44):
PDD Holdings has dropped thirty percent in the last thirty
days on these tariffs, which is just going to kill them, right.
Their app had been number one on the Apple Store
for two years, no number one app on the Apple
Store for the last two years. It has dropped by
sixty two percent in the last thirty days. And I

(01:35:05):
don't I don't follow this like you guys probably do,
but says their ads on Facebook and on Google have
totally disappeared.

Speaker 1 (01:35:14):
I didn't notice.

Speaker 5 (01:35:14):
But now that you say, yeah, they're not there, I've
used to. They were everywhere before.

Speaker 3 (01:35:18):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:35:19):
Yeah, I couldn't get away from.

Speaker 3 (01:35:20):
That way you say that, Yeah, you're that Google is well,
I mean I think you probably have to cut back
your spending if you're not going to be able to
sell anything. I would say, so, I mean you're spending
I'm sorry, we cut wages.

Speaker 4 (01:35:35):
Yeah, well you're not. That wasn't the point. The point
is my twelve dollars headphone now was gonna be twenty
four dollars. No, I might just go to Amazon though.

Speaker 3 (01:35:41):
Yeah. A giant game of chicken going on between between
Trump and she and uh. I don't think China has
much of a shot of making this come out their
way now. I think it's how do we say faith
and not give, not give the us too much. And
we all want to be happy yep. And we don't
want to be healthy because if we're not healthy, we
won't be happy, right and a Greenberg Financial What we

(01:36:05):
really want to be is profitable. See you next week.
M

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