Impact of Tariffs on Market Trends & Understanding Market Volatility

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Good morning, everybody. It's that time right here, seven ninety
k and st eight o'clock in the morning, and it's
the Money Matter Show with Dean Greenberg. The Money Matter
Show is brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, which
is a registered investment advisory. That means they're registered with
the SEC, and that means that you need to be

(00:30):
careful when you are investing, because when you invest, there's risk,
and when there's risk, you need to go ahead and
understand it. We always tell people that they don't really
get it. Some do, some don't, But this is a
perfect week that you need to understand risks. We talk

(00:53):
about different things. We talk about different products, we talk
about different ideas, and we talked about mitigating risk. We
talked about the volatility in the markets that were basically
started about a month and a half ago and will continue.
And that type of risk is not just portfolio risk,

(01:16):
it's mental risk, it's stress risk, it's how you're going
to navigate through these markets. I mean, on Monday, everyone
thought that the world was falling apart. Then we had
a nice bounce, and then we fell again on Thursday,

(01:38):
all the way down to fifty five hundred. On the
S and P five hundred, But then on Friday we
rallied all the way back up over one hundred SMP points.
That's volatility. When you when you're watching the SMP go
up one and a half to two percent up or
down in the day, that's volatility. But did you usually

(02:01):
when you see stuff like that, it gets over sold,
which I believe it. Did you see? Uh? You see
a bounce coming, and then when the bounce comes, you
gotta be kind of nimble because I don't think it
continues much higher than maybe fifty eight fifty to fifty
nine hundred, let's put it that way. We'll see by

(02:23):
the time it gets there. Where did we end on
the S and P five hundred. We ended at about
fifty six thirty four, So that would give us wid
fifty six uh, about two hundred more points to one
hundred and fifty more points. So with that said, that
would be probably maybe another four percent higher, five percent
high or something like that. If we get that, that

(02:46):
won't even make us up for the month. It'll bring
you back about even for the year, because right now
the S and P five hundred for the year is
down four percent for the month. It's down five percent,
and week it was down two and a half. The
dal Jones was down three and a half for the week,
five percent for the month, and for the year it's

(03:07):
down two and a half. The nazak Go was down
two and a half percent for the week. For the
month it was down almost six percent, and for the
year it's down eight percent. So you look at the
small caps, well, this week it did better. It was
only down one and a half percent, but for the
month it's down five and a half and for the
year it's down the most eight point two percent. The

(03:29):
equal weighted S and P five hundred it was down
two point three percent for the week, down four percent
for the month, down one point four percent for the year.
Not very comfortable, but you got to remember we were
down more than that earlier. We gathered back pretty decently
this week after being down so much and then going

(03:51):
up and then getting hit again on Thursday. Pretty much
a lot of the buy was broad based, and the
tech stocks bound back. They've been getting beaten up pretty good.
So my experiences in this type of market, we look
for a bottom, you try to buy in, you buy
an indexes, you buy some of the stocks that you

(04:12):
like that you can if you can handle the volatility,
like you know, the video was down there at one
o six, one oh seven, one o eight. I mean
it was pretty good. Buy down there. Microsoft got way
down a lot of them. If you buy stocks. If
you don't buy stocks, you stay away for and just
going to the the to the indexes. You can buy
the Dow Jones, you can buy the S and P

(04:33):
five hundred, and you can buy the nattack or the
Russell two thousand. Why do you do that? That gives
you the broad base you can dollar cost savage in
and when the markets go up, it's an easy sell
pretty quickly and you can keep your core portfolio. Being nimble.
Mitigating risk is very important. We did take off some
of our instruments that we were using to mitigate risk.

(04:57):
Our inverse position. We cut in half the this week.
Why didn't we take it all off? Because we feel
like if we get a bounce, we're going to add
back on and plus more. Because we think ultimately if
we break that fifty five hundred where we were this week,
which we could do into later on in April, we
could see us down to that fifty two hundred to
forty eight hundred level would be where I would be

(05:20):
looking at buying longer term positions. Markets usually don't turn
on a diamond and then and then just go right
back up to new highs. They back and fill. We
have a lot going on. I don't need to tell
you that. What can make is pop even more from here. Well,
let's face it, if we get good news out of
the Ukraine and Russia war. I mean, obviously they're talking

(05:45):
about a ceasefire which can turn into a long term
peace plan. That is positive. Some more hostages were released,
we can move get that thing over there in the
Middle East, calm down and stop and get a peace
agreement there. That's two wars we can get stopped in
a very short period of time. That's great for the market.

(06:08):
Oil prices have dropped, that's good for the market. You
saw inflation numbers lower this week. That's great for the
market and the economy. What's not great for the economy,
And we see it, and I've told you this, we're
going We're in an economic cycle. Every economic cycle has
a recession. We were almost in a recession during the

(06:30):
four years Biden was there, but we adverted it. And
why did we do it because it is spending by
the government. The government can keep economy going by spending
and hiring and doing the things you need to do.
But what's the other side of that. The other side
of it is our debt keeps rising, our interest rates

(06:53):
start going up. We spend trillions on just paying our
debt off, and until the economy slows and interust rates
come down, we're not helping anybody because people can't afford
those prices. So if you see what's going on now,
which you are and listening, all you hear from the

(07:14):
from the left side now when we just get started,
is we're hurting the middle class, We're hurting the lowland
cop just so they can get tax cuts for the billionaires. Well,
guess what, nothing changes to give anyone credit or dismay
in such a short period of time. Because inflation went

(07:38):
to two point seven on the okay, rather than three percent,
which is what they were looking for. You can't say, oh,
everything that Trump is doing is great, that's why he
did it. Now, it's the cycle. But just like when
you sit there and go, well, eight prices have gone up,
you can't say that and blame that on Trump. If

(08:01):
there are people believing it and saying that stuff to me.
I can't even talk to them because they don't have
a clue of what cycles are and how long they take.
But I do know this, in every economic cycle that
I've been doing this with in this market for over
forty something years, we have downturns and we haven't had one.
We're do for one. Will the tarrifts be the one

(08:23):
that creates it? Could be everyone says tariff is going
to create higher prices. I'm the one that's telling you
the tariffs are going to be what exactly eventually brings
down inflation and brings down interest rates. Couple because with
tariffs on the short run, they can say it's going
to cost more. It's not just us, it's costing more.

(08:45):
It's gonna hurt kind of Mexico, Europe, China, every other place.
So that country's got to do something too, because if
you want to look at it, we are stronger and
we can handle it more than any of these other countries.
But the terroriffts are going to get us on equal footing,
which will eventually help us. But at the terraffs, let's

(09:07):
just look the short in the short run of the tariffs.
In the short run of the tariffs and the and
and these uh and the well, you know, the firings
and the cleaning up government and getting rid of people,
there's gonna be unemployment that goes up. There's no doubt
about it. Unemployment is going to go higher. We'll have

(09:30):
a slow down in the economy. It's going to be
short lived, but the interest rates are going to start
coming down, which means housing is going to start picking
up again. Housing is the number one industry in our
country that keeps us going. There's so many industries that

(09:54):
filter into housing. Corporations are adaptable. They will figure out
how to go ahead and live through the higher tariffs
and bring businesses back here. Especially if they start cutting
taxes on corporations. Okay, that will bring businesses back here.

(10:15):
Then there'll be jobs. You can pay people more money.
So if you see intertrates coming down, you see jobs slowing,
you see increase in in in in being able to
get paid. That is great for the blue collar worker,
that union worker that they say we don't care about.
Those are the jobs that are going to be created
in America. If we're able to bring back more manufacturing,

(10:40):
you hear more and more of this. That doesn't have
to be the dirty industrial jobs. Because even now when
you go and see the old manufacturing of the smoke
stack of the car companies, now you go look at
the floor of the and and the and the for
for the car companies and how they build these cars.

(11:02):
It's clean. It's very clean. But you have to be
smarter than you used to be in the early nineteen
hundreds and nineteen thirties and forties, because now you're gonna
have to operate with robotics. But you get trained. People
are more accustomed to how to use those Younger people

(11:23):
thirties and forties are much more accustom to knowing how
to use technology now than they used to be. Honda's
bringing in the plan. I hear Porsche could be bringing
in a plant here. Now you start working towards what
we're looking for. Interest rates coming down, inflation coming down,
everything we were looking for. Energy prices have been coming down.

(11:46):
That will be the start of it. You just don't
turn everything around right away. And I'm not sitting here
just touting Trump because I liked Trump. I'm touting economic
policies something that I know something about. For a long
period of time. And here's the thing that I do know.

(12:07):
When you are trying to do something, everything is not
gonna be perfect. It's not gonna be one right. There
are gonna be mistakes and you have to make changes.
As you see things not working, you change them to
make them better. As so, one thing our government never does,
it just adds on and adds on regulations. Remember, regulations

(12:29):
are gonna get it cut. You're gonna see the pipelines
come back on. You're gonna see us plumping more oil gas.
We're gonna be exporters. We're gonna be making money. There's
different ways, different ideas that this administration keeps coming up
with to be able to bring in money to pay
down the debt and to balance the budget. Even if

(12:53):
it doesn't work, we have to applaud this administration to
try to do it. And all you hear on the
left hand side is they're cutting social security, they're cutting Medicaid.
They're getting rid of the fraud and social security, they're
getting rid of the fraud in medicaid. I've never heard
them saying that they were cutting the entitlements. Ever. In fact,

(13:19):
they've gone the other way and say we are not
going to touch your social security, We're not going to
touch your medicaid. However, there needs to be a plan
by somebody at some time on once we fix this,
like we fix the border, what is the plan for
immigration on the border? What is the plan to keep
social security and medicare going? So we are not going

(13:42):
aheading sucking out of our grandchildren to be able to
pay for people. And there is a way to do it,
but you've got to cut spending. You got to cut spending.
But so what are they doing. Number one, they're looking
at every single government agency and cutting trying to cut
down government. Does that hurt if you are an employee

(14:03):
of the government and you're going to lose your job,
Yes it does, and I have empathy for that, I do,
But I also believe if you're wanted the better ones
for the most part that are working in the government,
you are going to still have your job because we
still need people working in the government. But maybe we

(14:23):
don't need millions of people. Maybe we need half of
that amount, and maybe that's going to be trial and error.
Maybe they were, oh, we have too many, we got
to hire more back. I don't know the answer because
I'm not privy to see in everything that's going on.
I know, though, productivity is everything, and I do know

(14:44):
that a lot of the government jobs are not productive.
They're bureautic, buriodic or whatever, bureaucracy where one person has
to ask another person has to ask another person. And
that's the same thing in corporations. I don't see the
empathy so much when people get laid off from their
corporate jobs when we have a slow down, and that's

(15:06):
what they have to do. Tech has been laying off
people for two years now, ten thousand here, fifteen thousand there.
People get fired from their jobs, whether they do a
good job of bad job. I wouldn't be here today
if I didn't get fired in nineteen eighty seven. I
have to stick it up for clients when the market fell,

(15:27):
and if there's no reason I should have been fired,
none zero, but I was, and I didn't have any money,
and I had to figure it out. That's what people
do now. If you're stubborn and you see I'm not
moving or I don't want to go where there's a
job opportunity, or I'm not moving to a place that's
actually growth oriented, yeah, then you might have some problems,

(15:52):
but what we have to do is look at America
as being an opportunity now for people to start doing stuff.
All right, if I don't want to hear anymore about
he's raising taxes on the lower income people so he
can give tax breaks to its billionaires. I continually ask

(16:15):
people how many billionaires are in the country that you
keep hearing it over and over and over again towards nauseum.
So I just said one day, I said, Alexis, how
many billionaires are there in the United States? And she
responded to me, she said, in twenty twenty three, the

(16:40):
United States of America had seven hundred and fifty three billionaires.
Seven hundred and fifty three American billionaires in twenty twenty three.
So I said, you know what, things have been pretty good.
I'm going to say a thousand, now a thousand. You know,
most people think there's twenty fifty thousand, one hundred thousand.

(17:02):
We keep talking about the same thing over and over
and over again. First of all, people that have big wealth,
generational wealth, they have lawyers, accountants, they have ways that
they legally know how to not pay taxes. And the

(17:22):
number one thing is called real estate. You get the
obviously the depreciation from real estate, and if you want
to sell something that appreciated a lot, you go into
another real estate deal within exchange, paying higher price to
keep the prices up, and the next thing you know

(17:43):
is what you have more depreciation on the new asset.
And then what happens when you die, Everyone gets a
stepped up basis. So there are no taxes. So if
you want to complain about the rich not paying their
fair share or whatever that means, then you need to
talk to the Democrats for not passing something when they

(18:06):
kept talking about this two years ago, about passing at
least to carry forward attacks. Because what that does is
most of these people that they talk about are invested
in their private equity, hedge funds, stuff like that, and
they get paid out in shares instead of salary, and

(18:27):
they consider it long term gains and that is why
they pay twenty percent, and that is why their secretary
pays thirty percent, because that's the way it works. Similar
our own Democratic senator, who was in office when they

(18:48):
did this, voted against this. She was the last one.
If she voted yes, they changed it. She voted no.
And you know what her reason was it will hurt
the real estate market. Okay, then go ahead and tell
the public that we're not going to change it, so
they get off the backs of the people that create
the wealth in America. Remember, if you make under sixty

(19:14):
thousand dollars, you probably don't even pay taxes right now,
and if you do, your paying very very little. The
people that are getting hurt the most right now is
that person making about one hundred and twenty five to
three hundred thousand dollars and has a family. Of course,
the deductions aren't enough as they offer the lower income.
There's not enough benefits for them on the other side,

(19:39):
and they struggle for month to month. That's the person.
And I'm sure somebody that's making fifty goes, ah, I
wish I was making one fifty. Do you understand it?
Wondn't even be that much of an incremental more money
coming to you with that extra hundred, because now you're
going to pay some taxes on that, and now you're
not going to get to the other things that you get,
and you're going to spend a little bit more mone

(20:00):
and you're gonna be in the same situation. That's what's
gonna happen so right now for my crystal ball, whatever
that means. But we've been pretty right right now. I
told you we're gonna have a lot of volatility. I
think we could have this week. We hit a bottom,

(20:20):
went up, hit another bottom at fifty five hundred, We're
gonna make a lower high and that could be anywhere
from fifty eight hundred to fifty nine hundred if we
get over there. Anything that's bored or anything you have,
I would loosen up again. Not sell everything, of course,
because things could change, but loosen up, reduce your risk,
mitigate your risk. If I take off the mitigation of

(20:40):
the risk down here, if you did, and then look
for an opportunity down. If we break fifty five hundred
around that fifty four to fifty two forty eight hundred
level on the S and P five hundred, we go
down about forty eight hundred, that'll be a little over
twenty percent. Everyone want to have the heads up, Oh,
thank you Trump, You're killing us. Look what he's doing.
You know, Oh, this is a Trump's fault.

Speaker 2 (21:01):
You know.

Speaker 1 (21:01):
The funny part about it is when when Biden during
his four years, he had a twenty three percent moved down,
a thirteen percent moved down, and a ten percent moved down.
The twenty three was a little bit more, obviously out
of character. But he had a twenty three percent move
but to ten and the thirteen nobody said a word.

(21:24):
Nobody said a word. They bounce back. But as soon
as this market goes down, they're beating up Trump. And
he's the one that's gonna get us going. He's the
one that's gonna put cement steps under economy instead of
house of cards. He's the one that's gonna get our
debt down. He's the one that's going to get up

(21:48):
budget balanced thy halpe in the next few years. That's
the one that's going to get interest rates down. That's
the one that's gonna get the war stopped. He's the
one that's gonna get the uh the immigration process under control. Yes,
do I want to see an immigration policy that sticks. Yes,

(22:08):
I have no problems of we're lowering taxes if we
can pay our bills. Why don't we go down that
road first? Instead of keep taxing everybody and then giving
away trillions of dollars around the world, why don't we
cut taxes for people? See where we are and say, hey,

(22:28):
I gotta taxes more, a little bit more to be
able to pay for these things. I'm all about that.
I'm okay with that. No different than state tax. It
goes up, it goes down, it goes up, it goes down,
we vote on it, we cut it out. They're all
we're trying to get more. How about balancing a budget.
How about knowing how to do the budget. How about

(22:48):
not hiring everybody that you need there and don't need.
How about getting rid of the people that don't work.
How about getting more productivity out of everything? How about
change the mindset on how we operate as a state,
as a county, as a country. How about us taking

(23:10):
care of ourselves first. I believe in that. If we
can't take her there selves and we ended up not
being able to pay our bills and on debt toppled
us over, what country will go ahead and tax there
their they're citizens, more money so they can send USA
people the checks so we can live a life of socialism.

(23:33):
Tell me one, because that's how I look at Canada
when they get two hundred billion dollars a year off
of us and they claim, oh we got everyone can
use our healthcare everybody can get a social Security check.
Everybody can do that. Take away two hundred billion. You
think you're gonna tax the people bore? You think they're
gonna be okay with that, because it ain't gonna work.

(23:56):
Reality is simple. Take Looking from the rich to pay
the poor doesn't work. Having too much debt doesn't work.
Having excess productivity will create a scenario where there's enough
money to go ahead and tax less and still do

(24:16):
all the things that we need to do and pay more.
The markets will respond to that. Remember, mitigate risk high
by low. We'll be right back, and I do appreciate
you listening. Welcome back everybody to the Money Matter Show.
We got Day Dylan, we got Sebastian and myself. Todd

(24:38):
is on his way to cal Lupifornia. I see your
grandfather there, which I think is great. Yes, absolutely got
to go see him.

Speaker 2 (24:45):
Why I can?

Speaker 1 (24:46):
All right, So markets fell again, but actually at least
on Friday they bounced back two percent.

Speaker 3 (24:52):
The best thing I can say about last week was
it was better than the week before.

Speaker 4 (24:56):
Yeah, and that was purely because of Friday. I was
down to the week still jump two percent.

Speaker 2 (25:01):
On Friday, Yeah, I know, get back half of his losses.

Speaker 1 (25:04):
It was.

Speaker 2 (25:04):
It was a ridiculous week.

Speaker 4 (25:05):
There's a lot of news in the week too, I
mean with Russia and Ukraine, with all the terroffts, every
day something new, and then you have all the inflation
that was lower than expected.

Speaker 3 (25:17):
Yeah, the inflation just got drowned out by the tariffs.

Speaker 2 (25:19):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (25:20):
Right now, everybody's focused on arists and what is actually
gonna happen. I mean, he wakes up every morning and
with a different idea.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
I love the fact that everyone tells you what to
happen with the terrorists, and no one knows. No, nobody knows.

Speaker 3 (25:30):
And I think that's the problem is is not the
appro not the terrorists, but the approach that they approached.
Twenty percent today, thirty percent row maybe fifty next week.

Speaker 1 (25:41):
Oh maybe none.

Speaker 2 (25:42):
That's what we were talking about.

Speaker 4 (25:43):
I mean, back with Biden's administration last year, they increased
tariffs on the lumber from Canada. For me, it was
like eight point sixty five percent. They increased at the
fourteen point zero five percent or something like that, more
specific and the scenes, more calculated. And then Trump wakes
up and says that I'm doing fifty percent.

Speaker 1 (25:58):
Noxt daylated, except one doesn't say anything. It's quiet. It
just gets there and the press back sit, no big deal.
I get that, But I'm saying they don't use decimals
or anything. He's just using broader numbers. That's what people
don't like.

Speaker 4 (26:13):
People wanted to have an idea and the markets are
already overbought, so they're saying, screw it, I'm taking my
profit and waiting till this will be down.

Speaker 1 (26:19):
Will be smart. If we know this is going to happen,
the markets go down. That's why we mitigated risks. If
when down to the places we thought were good, we
came out of some of our mitigative risks. Bottom line
is you never heard Biden get up and say he
was going to do anything. Trump tells you what he's
gonna do all the time, and it's different. People don't
know how to do it because they can't think about

(26:39):
what that means. Other Oh, it's going to be more expensive.
Why is he doing it? Everyone knows it's stupid. Well,
of course Canada is going to say it's stupid because
it's going to cost their citizens a lot of money.
And who's going to be able to survive better is us? Now,
I don't like the fact that you have bad relations,
but I don't like the fact that finally someone's trying

(27:00):
to take care of US America and show people how
much it's been costing us before we go broke, is
trying to do something about it.

Speaker 3 (27:08):
Yeah, I think the uncertainty is what's bothering the market.
The market hates uncertainty without a doubt, and you never
know from one day to the neck of what he's
going to say.

Speaker 4 (27:15):
Yeah, and like I was saying too, I mean, you
got a lot of stock, especially text stocks that were
so overbought.

Speaker 2 (27:20):
Yeah, it was only a time and they got nervous.

Speaker 4 (27:22):
They're saying, Okay, I'll just take profit off the table
and wait till it settles down.

Speaker 5 (27:26):
Other than Friday, it seems like every single time this
week that the market wanted to bounce back higher, Trump
would come out and say the T word. He'd say
something about tariffs and bring it right back down.

Speaker 1 (27:35):
Yeah, yeah, okay, okay. But you see, it's because people
don't understand tariffs. They don't understand we've been being charge
this already.

Speaker 2 (27:41):
Know.

Speaker 3 (27:41):
What we don't understand is the erratic is thera.

Speaker 1 (27:44):
It's not erratic. I don't think it's erratic. He's telling
them what he's going to do until they want to do.

Speaker 2 (27:48):
How you don't think it's erratic If every day is
a different.

Speaker 1 (27:51):
Number, different every day, and it can be different every.

Speaker 4 (27:54):
Day on the change the idea that he's putting tariffs
on Canada. It just seems like every day is a
different number, whether it's not, whether it's lower, it's always different.
And that's what people don't like. You have millions of
people invest in our markets that are already skittish because
of a new administration. They're gonna take their money off
the table, and that's why we're seeing a pullback on this.

Speaker 2 (28:10):
I'm saying it's.

Speaker 1 (28:11):
Right, but some of it's retaliation. Some of it the okay,
so we said we're going to do ten percent and
they say twenty five percent. We're gonna come back and say, fine,
we'll do twenty five persent exactly.

Speaker 4 (28:19):
And I mean with Europe, with the EU, we put
twenty five percent tariff on steel and aluminum. So they
turn around and put twenty five percent or fifty percent
on our whiskey. So Trump turns around and puts twenty
two hundred percent on champagne. So that's why we have
those terrors because they put it on whiskey, we put
on stealing aluminum.

Speaker 2 (28:37):
But it's all retaliatory too.

Speaker 4 (28:38):
But I mean they're saying he's escalating it all and
it's just people get nervous.

Speaker 5 (28:43):
I think that you could definitely like classify it as
erratic behavior. But at the same time, I do think
that he knows what he's doing.

Speaker 3 (28:49):
Well, he is the art of the deal, right, I mean,
that is the author of art of the deal.

Speaker 4 (28:54):
Well, depends on you. Always half the country says yes,
how the country says no.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
No, We understand that, we know what his style. Vote
out there and keep hitting them, saying you want to
do this, you keep playing this game. I'm just going
to keep upping it. You're going to be hurt more
than us. That's his game. That's what he was doing.
He's telling Canada, we don't need you, you need us more.
If we're going to survive with our fifty states, we're

(29:17):
going to be better and easier to survive. If we
just had to go ahead and pull on horns and
develop stuff and do stuff, then you will as one
country up there.

Speaker 3 (29:26):
Well, I think Dylan hit the nail on the head.
The market was looking for an excuse to correct, and
it found it in the tariffs. That became the excuse
that I'll agree with. Because you don't agree with that,
I will yeah, yeah.

Speaker 4 (29:39):
Because I mean you had inflation that came down lower
than expected on both ends, the CPI and the PPI.

Speaker 3 (29:43):
Really good inflation numbers this week, and interest rates went up.

Speaker 4 (29:48):
Marcus went down, interest rates went up, and all you
kept hearing is that everything's going to be bad. Inflation
is going to be so high. On the next readings
comes in lower and expected. Marcus don't care. It's we're
kind of at that point when you always talk about Davis.
Every news is bad news.

Speaker 1 (30:02):
Right now, Oh we got to fed this week, right, Okay,
So we'll find out where they're thinking. What's gonna go happen?
The big news though next week. This week coming up
is the big tech conference and with Navidia, And you know,
if you go back and look at history, every time
they had this conference, it's been very good for Navidia.
I can't believe now they're not even talking about just

(30:23):
a Blackwell chip for Navidia. They're talking about the next
one after that Yeah, that that that's even amazing. So
that just wipes out everything what they were talking about
with deep seek and and everything else, that people are
gonna need these things? How much how I mean to me,
how much far ahead is the vidio then everybody else?

Speaker 4 (30:41):
Well, they're still I think, the same amount that they've
been ahead. They're always one chip ahead. But no, sounds
like the two chips ahead. No, because other companies are
catching up the blackwell, which was they were already ahead
of it before, and now they're coming out and videas
already one or two steps ahead of everybody.

Speaker 2 (30:55):
And that's what this new.

Speaker 1 (30:56):
I think.

Speaker 2 (30:56):
It's like bearra or something.

Speaker 1 (30:57):
I'm gonna ask you young guys. It's called what are
these going to do? I mean, what how how much
more advance can we get in chips? And what is
it wing to do?

Speaker 4 (31:05):
What is I read an article on it is what
this is gonna be able to do? These chips that
are coming out now is gonna make it's the large
language models that make the AI able to think, not
just regurgitate information. It'll have it'll be more like a
intuitive thinking from what I read.

Speaker 1 (31:23):
So are we not gonna think as humans? Anymore.

Speaker 4 (31:25):
You know, it's just the robots the AI, that's what.
And that's like the next hurdle of AI. The next
level of AI is having these AI bots think for
themselves in a sense.

Speaker 2 (31:37):
I don't know to what extent.

Speaker 4 (31:38):
I know there's all these regulations on not wanting to
push AI too far because the movies like I Robot,
where they start thinking from themselves and start revolting, which
you've already seen some robots kind of do.

Speaker 2 (31:49):
And then these AI bots.

Speaker 4 (31:51):
Sometimes like chat GPT, they people put them through the
ringer on these questions and then if they get too much,
so about like going that if the robot, if the
chats goes down that road, it gets shut down, like
the response is stopping it says it has ended.

Speaker 5 (32:05):
I think, uh, you know, the law of diminishing returns.
I think that we're going to get to the point
with these chips, like what's the point of getting the
new one? Kind of with an iPhone iPhone sixteen, is
it really much better to get the iPhone seventeen for
the consumer?

Speaker 4 (32:18):
I don't agree with that. I think I think we're
far away from that. I mean, and its infancy.

Speaker 5 (32:23):
Of course, the quantum currently right now. Of course, the
black Well chips the one that everybody wants to get.
But for a company, smaller business out there, what's the
point of me going, what.

Speaker 1 (32:33):
Does a Blackwell chip do?

Speaker 2 (32:36):
Just makes it better?

Speaker 1 (32:38):
That's my point. None of us know what any of
the people people. It makes things out right fast. I
mean when we started with computers, Dave, we knew with
that punch card, we were going down that to be
able to know they can do this calculation faster than
any human can do it. That's what we knew. They
were calculating that mathematic equations for.

Speaker 3 (32:58):
Us being faster. Okay, it's all about being faster. I
think it's being faster.

Speaker 1 (33:03):
I think where this is gonna the places it's going
to have the biggest and best positive impact. It's going
to be healthcare.

Speaker 4 (33:12):
And what it's gonna help is quantum computing. I'm guessing
as it goes through, as quantum keeps advancing, I mean,
China shows that they're a little bit ahead of us
in quantum computing.

Speaker 2 (33:22):
Google came out.

Speaker 4 (33:23):
A few months ago with their chip that was their
quantum computing that was like five years ahead of schedule.
There's an article on China's whatever scientists showing that their
quantum computing is about a thousand million times or million
times faster or something like that, much faster, much more
advanced than the US quantum right now.

Speaker 1 (33:41):
But will that okay, but will that help a bullet
go faster? Will that help a ship go faster? Will
that help a man run faster? I don't know.

Speaker 2 (33:50):
I mean probably a ship go faster. Maybe that.

Speaker 4 (33:54):
I mean, cars have all these chips. Now, it's not
gonna help a human run faster.

Speaker 1 (33:58):
Well, maybe in the electrical world it'll it'll help in
the in the electric call world.

Speaker 3 (34:04):
Got great helps for healthcare, den like you said, that's
where I think it is.

Speaker 1 (34:07):
I mean, that's what preventive.

Speaker 4 (34:08):
That's why Harry Ellison of Oracle said when Trump first
talked about that five hundred million dollar investment between Oracle
and chat Ebt or open ai and uh soft bank
for the AI moving forward. Yeah, Larry Ellison said, this
AI investment is going to be huge in healthcare.

Speaker 3 (34:26):
Just imagine being able to lay on the table and
have a machine scan you and yep, everything's good.

Speaker 4 (34:30):
I mean this was months ago too, all right, I'm
sure it's just advancing by the day. Is these AI
models and the AI machines can detect like breast cancer
way before a human can.

Speaker 5 (34:39):
And think about all the all the billions of dollars
that these companies pour into R and D into making
a new drug be.

Speaker 1 (34:46):
Able to right, they can do it. The AI will
drugs and do things in reaction to the right. Right,
this is how That's where I see that, That's where
I see it going. Well, then that brings us back
to the other part. Then people live longer. How are
we going to afford social security?

Speaker 2 (35:01):
There you go there, retiring age will be one hundred.

Speaker 1 (35:04):
Yeah, you know what I'm saying. There's gonna be a
lot of things that have to be able to, uh
be realizing change as it goes.

Speaker 3 (35:12):
So tired of hearing the clients saying that they're gonna
Trump's gonna cut their social security just so hearing that
for forty years. But I've been hearing that for forty.

Speaker 1 (35:23):
No one's cutting social security. Do they have to make
plans to change it over the next twenty to thirty years? Yeah,
so we're not dependent on it, yes, But are they
cutting people's social security? No? And on that note, I'm
going to say, we'll be right back. We can talk
more about it. Your social security is not going to
be cut. If you're getting it right now, We'll be

(35:43):
right back to the Money Matter Show. Thanks for listening.

Speaker 5 (35:47):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Borsini. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Dean Greenberg, and
David Sherwood.

Speaker 1 (35:52):
We're talking about client go aheadeah. No.

Speaker 4 (35:54):
Say, we were talking about social security before this, before
the break we had to go to and I mean
we could talk a little bit more about that because
it is becoming a big topic talking about is it
gonna get cut? Is the tax is gonna get cut
on it? That's the positive side of it. You got
other people saying they're gonna cut social Security. It's gonna
go defunk. That's all this stuff. If nothing's done with
Social Security, it is gonna go bankrupt or whatever. In

(36:17):
twenty thirty five, they've been kicking down they can down
the road for decades. You guys have been hearing that
longer than I've been in the business. Yep, that Social
Security is gonna go bankrupt and you're not gonna get
your social security. No administration if they can help. It
will be that administration that has social Security go out.

Speaker 1 (36:32):
Now, here's the interesting part about social security, right people,
you know when you hear that, oh, it's a Ponzi scheme,
it's this and that. No, it's not. I want that.
I paid for that social Security. It's our money, Dean, Okay, right,
I hear that all the time. Listen to me. I
want you to listen because everyone, no one has solutions,

(36:53):
They always have complaints. Social Security right now is in
this scenario that we know, if we don't keep raising
the age of retirement age, it's going to go broke.
And it's like basically seven or eight more years. They said,
right now, we are social Security is based on the

(37:13):
workforce that is able to pay for the older generation. Well,
the older generation is living longer and the workforce is
getting smaller. Okay, So what the answer is from people
is why don't we just let social Security just go?
There is no cap on it. And those people that
say that, thinking the cap is like still like one hundred,

(37:35):
one hundred and twenty and don't even realize one hundred
and sixty five thousand, now one hundred and sixty eight
is where you're paying up on your Social Security both
employer and employee. Right, Okay, so that continues to go up,
so that all they want to do is what they
want to tax people more if you're making five hundred
thousand dollars or whatever for what reason to be able

(37:57):
to pay for the other people. And they don't get
that's not a remedy. That is not a fix. What
it is it's like a Ponzi scheme. We're using other
people's money to pay for other people's money. Who put
the money in? So at the end of the day,
what happened to all the money? Where in the constitution
did they say they can borrow the money from all

(38:20):
money that goes into that subsecurity fund?

Speaker 3 (38:23):
What wouldn't be in a constitution because it came after.

Speaker 1 (38:25):
No kidding day. They always use the constitutional. It's against
the constitution.

Speaker 2 (38:29):
I was not meant to be permanent.

Speaker 3 (38:32):
It was the depression, right y, Yeah, No, it was
never meant to be permanent.

Speaker 1 (38:36):
It was never but it was right solidify people that
are retired.

Speaker 4 (38:41):
Yeah, but then they realized they could start borrowing from it. Yes,
and that's what's happened.

Speaker 1 (38:45):
And now I can't get an answer on how that
was allowed I owe yous. Well, of course there's no money.
Could you imagine if the money just stayed and they
would never have a problem, no problem, right, and we'd
be getting more. So with that said, how do you
change this? What you change it is over time? So
right now everyone pays about I don't know if the
six point three or six point four percent employee six

(39:08):
point three six point four uh employee. Well maybe for
the people that are ten years out, they reduce it
just one percent and they start putting it in. Then
they reduce it a little bit more off of people
fifteen years, twenty years.

Speaker 3 (39:22):
And thirty answer who reduces what?

Speaker 1 (39:25):
How much goes into the government social security versus your
own private account? Well?

Speaker 4 (39:30):
Yeah, I mean okay, Like they started doing new four
or own ks. They're forcing employees to put in at
least three percent. That's going to go up to ten
percent I think in the next five or ten years.
With four or one K plans that were created brand
new in the last year or two. It's putting people's
retirement in their own hands. Now they're not relying on
the government. This was something I was put in place
last administration, and it's I think it's great, But like

(39:53):
you're saying, you start phasing out Social Security tax, but
then what do you do. You start forcing that six
percent tax that was going in social scuity and you
change that into you take that person six percent and
put it into their forumn case. And now when they
retire they got more money than they ever thought. They
build their own pension. It puts it on the person,
but it has to.

Speaker 1 (40:10):
Be reduced to one side increased on the other. But
it's like, now, Dave, anyone that's working, we're being taxed
on us social Security in order to pay get her
own check. We're paying ourselves and it's not even the
same amount of money we're putting into Social Security.

Speaker 3 (40:27):
Unfortunately, we're getting back a lot more than we're paying in.

Speaker 1 (40:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (40:29):
Yes, And then but the argument then goes to what
are you gonna do about the disability and all that stuff?
For people who get on there early because of medicare
they they're disabled. You have to have a different new
fund or something for that. That's the other side argument.

Speaker 3 (40:41):
Right, Well, that's a career path in the United States,
trying to get on solf security disability, that's a career.

Speaker 2 (40:47):
Path, you know. So, I mean, but that's a whole
other thing to it.

Speaker 4 (40:52):
But the broad social security I like the idea putting
into the individual's.

Speaker 1 (40:55):
Hand and somebody that's fifteen years old right now not
have to worry about social security. They should be by
the time they're working, putting very little towards social security
for the people that are older and the rest of
it for themselves.

Speaker 2 (41:08):
I'm thirty.

Speaker 4 (41:09):
I've been told since I was sixteen, you're not counting
on the social security people because of you.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
Wait, and they don't count on it, but yet pay
for it right and don't pay for it. That's where
I have the problem. Nobody wants to worry about the
young people, but yet they want to worry.

Speaker 4 (41:24):
About because if you're gonna say, if you take your
phase out plan that you're talking about, yeah, that's just
gonna be an uproar, Like what was it for in
France they had an uproar about social security?

Speaker 1 (41:34):
Oh no, but you don't phase out the people getting
social security. They don't get in that.

Speaker 2 (41:38):
Though, what if I stop paying it?

Speaker 1 (41:40):
Because what happens, Dylan, the people and I hate to
say it, David and Iron, there we fall off. You
don't have to pay us anymore. And then there's that
Now there will be a time period maybe it's five
or ten years that the government is going to have
to subsidize. Well, I'd rather see two hundred and three
hundred billion dollars from the government subsidizing the people so
we don't have to get use social security anymore. Then

(42:02):
going ahead and paying to tevy one in the world seems.

Speaker 4 (42:05):
More sustainable if you put it into the people's hands.
I don't know exactly, and they can't use it.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
It's got to be waiting till the sixty five year.

Speaker 4 (42:11):
It's a retirement plan, right, but it's your personal one,
so you can put more into it if you want.
You can put you just can't put less.

Speaker 1 (42:17):
And it can be and it's gonna be in like
it's probably the most it can be if you're young,
fifty to fifty bonds and indexes, and then as you
get older, eighty twenties the most you can be eighty
bonds said, and guess what happens there, Well, buying our
own bonds. We don't need China to buy a bonds.
We have become self sufficient and self sustainable on keeping

(42:37):
interests low, interest rates low to be able to take
care of our own debt? Oh, what's wrong with that? Yeah.

Speaker 3 (42:44):
I probably have had fifteen people in the last three
weeks say that Trump's gonna what about Trump cutting our
social security?

Speaker 1 (42:51):
So the Life has done a good job.

Speaker 2 (42:53):
Of did they cut out that word cut taxes on it?

Speaker 1 (42:55):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (42:56):
No, No, nobody's talking about cutting self security.

Speaker 1 (42:58):
Nobody.

Speaker 3 (42:59):
I've got a client who said her next door neighbor
was so freaked out about it that she actually went
to her doctor to see if there's something he could
give her, and he took out his prescription pad. After
the exam, he took out his prescription pad and he
wrote down, turn off TV. That's a true Yeah, that's
true story.

Speaker 1 (43:19):
Here's what they don't realize. It's happened. It happened in France,
it happened in Greece, it happened in Spain. They had
to cut people so retirement plans because they went out
of money.

Speaker 3 (43:31):
Corporate retirement plans, yeah, not government retirement plans.

Speaker 1 (43:34):
Oh no, no, the pension plans.

Speaker 4 (43:35):
Say the cut France was they voted, they had they
had to increase the retirement age like two or three
years because they ran out.

Speaker 1 (43:43):
Yeah, and I get that.

Speaker 3 (43:45):
And now if I'm sixty four, I'm not going to
want to hear about retire and age quickly going to
see huge up francis a huge by you know, a
fraction of the population. Nobody else would care.

Speaker 1 (43:55):
Well, that's what happens in the socialida. They they get
this money to retire. You work four days a week
maybe anyway, and they have two hour lunches. But but
but they have but greed Greece went through it and all. Hey,
people don't realize it happened in our country in two
thousand and one and two thousand and eight. If you
were in the state retirement plans, you had to put

(44:15):
more money into those state replimate plans, if you were
working to keep them funded so they can pay the
people that are already retired. Then of course, once it
got fully funded, they were able to reduce that.

Speaker 3 (44:27):
Again, this is I guess small small social security.

Speaker 1 (44:30):
Yeah right, but that's what happens. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (44:33):
Wait, but going back, Dean, I agreed with what you said.
I just don't understand why would you want to put
a limit onto how much equities you could be invested
in if it's in our hands.

Speaker 1 (44:40):
No, because it won't not be in your hands, and
people would do the wrong thing. They're blow it up.

Speaker 5 (44:44):
They're blown upsers to this world.

Speaker 1 (44:47):
No no, no, no, no no, you'll blow it up.
Everybody's gonna be in bitcoin right enough. People don't know
enough about people. You got indexes, and you got and
you got bonds, okay, and that's what and that's what
you get to do. Period.

Speaker 3 (45:00):
Be careful, be careful with this market. Big rally on Friday, Dean,
I think it was a short covering rally. I think
you and I both agree that was. I don't think
we've seen the bottom.

Speaker 1 (45:09):
Oh I don't know. Yeah, I don't know. It was shortcut.
Probably part of it was short covering. I think we
hit fifty five hundred now technically was a good place
to go in and over sold, okay, and then the
market started buying it. And then when we broke out,
also on a technical basis, fifty six hundred and stayed
over it. Then the buying came in at late in
the day. Well that hold. I don't know. I mean,

(45:29):
you know, there's going to be pressure immediately next week
to try to take it down. But if it bounces
and goes higher, I think you're looking at fifty eight
fifty seven hundred to fifty eight hundred, fifty seven fifty
to fifty eight hundred.

Speaker 3 (45:41):
Maybefty seven is going to be tough because that's the
Turner day movie average, right.

Speaker 1 (45:44):
But if we break through that, we break through that,
I think we can get to that fifty eight to
fifty nine hundred. I don't think fifty nine I could.
If we got to fifty nine hundred day, i'd be
I would be hedging on a council.

Speaker 3 (45:55):
I think I think we'd probably retest those lows from
from Thursday.

Speaker 1 (45:59):
Before we go higher from where we are now. That'd
be my gues. I don't know. Just have one day up.
I mean, if you know he's.

Speaker 3 (46:06):
Had one day up and I think, I think what,
I don't think we've hit the bottom. I think that, Oh,
I don't think we hit the bottom.

Speaker 1 (46:11):
I think our bottom is fifty two hundred to forty
eight hundred on the S and P once we break there.
But I think we have a little bit more here
and then come April when we go back to the
TA word again. Uh, doing all those those on April second,
all the tariffs, I think that creates a lot of hostile.

Speaker 3 (46:29):
I don't know I haven't had a day without tariffs.
Has there been a day without tariffs?

Speaker 5 (46:32):
Friday?

Speaker 3 (46:33):
Friday was a day you didn't talk about tariffs since
the market can round. Be careful here, this is not
a jump jump in, you know. And we had a
call from a client. He said, now Trump's president, I
want to get more aggressive. And we talked him out
of it. And then he called or probably what a
week ago, and said, I think I'm too aggressive. Same guy,
Same exact guy.

Speaker 1 (46:53):
So don't make a change.

Speaker 3 (46:55):
Don't be jumping around like this. Don't be jumping around
like that. That's not the way to week. You don't
go all in, you don't go all out. I'm telling
you learn how to mitigate risk. You know how to
mitigate risks as many different ways to do it. You
can buy in verse funds, you can sell calls, you
can buy insurance puts, you can sell stuff, you can
raise cash. There's a lot of ways to do it.

Speaker 1 (47:15):
Learn how to do it. We'll be right back. This
is the Money Matters Show. We appreciate so much that
you listen.

Speaker 4 (47:22):
Welcome back to the second hour of the Money Matters Show.
Doing Greenberg here with Dave Sherwood Sebastian Borsini, Dan Greenberg,
and Toglick is on his way to California to have
fun with his family. Yeah, for those of you just
tuning in, it was a pretty down week again just
like the previous week, but we did have a big
rally on Friday to cut that in half. The Dow
was down three point one percent for the week, The

(47:42):
SMP five hundred was down two point three percent, the
Nasdaq was down two point four percent, the Russell two
thousand was down a percent and a half, and the
equal weight to SMP five hundred was down two point
three percent. Bringing the year to date returns. The Dow
is down two point five percent, this MP is down
four point one percent. Now Deck, which is tech heavy,
is down eight point one percent, small Cap two thousand

(48:04):
is down eight point two percent, an equal weight to
SMP is only down one point four percent, so it's
down the least.

Speaker 2 (48:10):
It was a market as a whole, not down so much.

Speaker 3 (48:12):
Yeah, that's the overall market.

Speaker 4 (48:14):
So it's the tech companies that were riding the coattails
on the way up the last couple of years. We're
now the ones tanking it. But the equal weight it
is shown to be a little more stable.

Speaker 5 (48:23):
Well, I thought it was interesting that the S and
P five hundred and RSP this week both lost that
same two point three percent. And I think that had
to do with the fact that the doll kind of
took a beating this week.

Speaker 2 (48:32):
Doll.

Speaker 3 (48:32):
Yeah, the dollstacks took a beat.

Speaker 2 (48:34):
I was down the most, that's for sure.

Speaker 3 (48:35):
You know, it's what's happening is is the the first
of all, I think the headline of the week obviously
was the market. But here in Tucson, I think rain
probably got number two.

Speaker 2 (48:45):
Right there we go, there's the weather day of two
days of rain.

Speaker 1 (48:47):
Man, two days of rain.

Speaker 3 (48:48):
Yeah, Yuma had a two hundred consecutive day without rain. Two.

Speaker 1 (48:54):
Well.

Speaker 3 (48:54):
I grew up in rural South Dakota, and I remember
as a kid my dad was a lawyer in this
small town.

Speaker 1 (48:59):
He was lawyer.

Speaker 3 (49:00):
And whether we ate or not, well that's probably a
little strong. How we lived was all about the weather,
dependent on whether if the crops. If the weather was
good and the crops came in, good, Dad would get paid.
If the weather was bad and the crops didn't come in,
he wouldn't get paid. So as a young man, I
I kind of took that to heart and I said, boy,
I want to I want to whatever I do for

(49:22):
a career, I don't want it to have to be
impacted by outside forces.

Speaker 1 (49:28):
How'd that work out for me?

Speaker 5 (49:29):
Yeah, I was gonna say, how did.

Speaker 1 (49:32):
That work out for it?

Speaker 5 (49:33):
Still pretty dependent on the outside force.

Speaker 1 (49:34):
Totally, totally.

Speaker 3 (49:35):
And you know, the big thing that's happening here is
that the terrafts are creating uncertainty. Uncertainty causes businesses to
slow expansion plans. It causes customers to slow purchase plans.
You might delay the remodel on your house, you might
delay that. Addition, I've got a friend that works in
the furniture business had a ten thousand dollars order for

(49:59):
a house and got a call and said, I can't
go ahead now with this stock market the way it is.
Literally blamed it on the stock market, canceled the order,
and that happening all over the country. And what the
market is trying to determine is how much is the
economy slowing down?

Speaker 1 (50:17):
Now? The negative people will say.

Speaker 3 (50:18):
Wow, we're going we're going to into recession, and others
will say, now it's an opportunity to buy, so that's
what that's the uncertainty. What we're trying to figure out
here is just how much down we go. Just give
you an example consumer related stocks, Costco, American Express, Starbucks.
Pretty wide variety there, right, I mean, but that's all
consumer all down twenty percent. Twenty percent, that's pretty good hit.

(50:42):
I mean, I don't remember that there's been years since
Costco has dropped twenty percent.

Speaker 4 (50:46):
Since Yeah, but I mean if you go to Costco
on a Sunday, it's like nothing what you wouldn't even.

Speaker 1 (50:49):
Know it's a mob scene.

Speaker 3 (50:50):
So yeah, yeah, So again, the market is trying to predict.
Market is trying to predict the future, and what they're
what they're saying is well, there's going to be a
slowing in the economy, and how much is it going
to slow?

Speaker 1 (51:02):
And I think that might have overshot.

Speaker 3 (51:05):
I've been noticed a long time, and when I see
a bounce like Friday out of nowhere. It would have
been nice to see Friday open down about two hundred
points and then come back to close up seven hundred.
That would have been really nice. It just doesn't feel
like a bottom to me.

Speaker 4 (51:20):
Well, it's like that the investors finally look at the
inflation data and then decided to buy on Friday because
inflation came down loaded and expected in both ways during
last week and it was just blown off to the
side because of tariffs all those news.

Speaker 1 (51:33):
Yeah. So, I mean how many how many?

Speaker 3 (51:35):
How many people have called within the past two weeks
fashion about gaining online access to their accounts so they
can punish themselves.

Speaker 5 (51:43):
I'd say a lot.

Speaker 3 (51:43):
I mean, what I got to call it. I got
to call it a day for a guy has looked
at it. I'm looked at this in six months. I
figured I better shot Why.

Speaker 5 (51:51):
Well, you didn't why to look? You didn't want to
look last year when your account was up eighteen per
six months.

Speaker 1 (51:56):
He hasn't looked at it in six months.

Speaker 3 (51:57):
He's out. He's a busy guy. I mean he's retired,
but he's very active. He didn't care, but he decided
he's gonna look.

Speaker 1 (52:03):
Now. Why why?

Speaker 4 (52:04):
I have a friend who's a client and always text
me when the markets are down. If the markets are
down over one percent, I'll get a text right in
the morning. And then on Friday the markets are up
two percent, no text. I text him in the afternoon.
I said, hey, man, the markets are up two percent.

Speaker 2 (52:17):
Did you see that?

Speaker 1 (52:18):
You see that?

Speaker 4 (52:18):
He's like, I look every day, but I only text
you on the bad days. I was like, all right,
I appreciate that.

Speaker 1 (52:22):
Yeah, I've noticed, right, I've noticed.

Speaker 2 (52:23):
Yeah, He's like, you're sick of me.

Speaker 1 (52:25):
Yet to your treasury.

Speaker 3 (52:27):
Got below for you last week, back up four point
oh two this week, despite those inflation numbers, which are
outstanding because what they're seeing is teriffs creating higher prices.
That that's that that thesis is is getting legs.

Speaker 5 (52:42):
In the intermediate term though.

Speaker 3 (52:44):
Yeah, right, yeah, And so.

Speaker 5 (52:46):
Going back to your farmer talk, I think that farmer's
kind of taking a direct hit on these terraces right now.
I don't know if you saw, but China, which is
the largest largest market for chicken, wheat, corn, soybeans, pork, beef,
and free roots from the United States of America, they're
all going to get tax or tearf ten percent. So
that's kind of taking a hit on those farmers currently.

Speaker 3 (53:07):
Yeah, it's amazing how many soybeans China buys FRUS it's
a huge that's probably the biggest of all those.

Speaker 5 (53:13):
You mentioned soybeans were where do we even do the soybeans.

Speaker 1 (53:16):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (53:17):
I don't need Chinese food much, but there must be
some soy bean, some heavy soybeans and Chinese foods. Right
next week we have the FED decision. Interesting, speaking of China,
Chinese market up two percent this week, up now up
twenty three percent this year with our market down five.

Speaker 1 (53:34):
Wow, So how's that for crazy?

Speaker 4 (53:37):
How did China's market end last year? I forgot I
think it was down right?

Speaker 1 (53:40):
It was horrible.

Speaker 3 (53:41):
Yeah, no, they've been They've been horrible for two years
while we've been kicking it.

Speaker 1 (53:44):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (53:44):
So it's an economic cycle, like when Dad was talking
about in his monologue. Yeah, economic cycles, they happen. It's
not doesn't have to do with one specific event like
we're talking about though. Terrorist mighta kickstarted a little selling
frenzy right now because they're fragile because of how over
they were. But what effect won't One thing will not
affect the market as much as people think.

Speaker 5 (54:05):
And if you're sitting here looking at your portfolio and
wondering why you're not participating in the international exposure through China,
it's because we can't trust the numbers, right, I mean.

Speaker 2 (54:14):
The last five years, that's COVID.

Speaker 4 (54:16):
The last five years, China has been so unpredictable and
unreliable on what they report, right, what actually is happening there,
what's going on? And it's I mean, we owned win
as a firm for years yep, because that's an American
company that had a huge casino in Macau, which they
had this whole deal where no new casino could be
built in Macau for ten years. So they've pretty much

(54:37):
had a stronghold between them and in like five other casinos.
So we're thinking that's a good strategic Bye got hammered
because of the every day wake up like Trump wakes
up and says different tariff numbers, China wakes up and says,
oh you're closed Macaw. Oh your open Macaw. Oh you're
closed China. Oh you're open China. For five years, so
we finally got positive a bit and we just sold.

Speaker 2 (54:58):
And if you look at that's an American company in China.

Speaker 5 (55:00):
And if you look at the long history through the
numbers of United States saying domestic ore going international to China,
United States dominates every single time.

Speaker 4 (55:09):
You do have to be wary of companies that have
big exposure to China, like Starbucks and Apple. I mean,
like the Chinese government doesn't allow Apple phones any more,
so that hit Apple hard last year, even though Apple
still had a good year. But it's exposure there. I mean,
Starbucks is huge there. Technology is huge there.

Speaker 5 (55:24):
And you're saying, yeah, be weary of it. But let's
go back and say, Okay, you want some exposure to China. Yeah,
let's get it out of a United States based company
like Starbucks.

Speaker 1 (55:32):
Right, you can do that.

Speaker 2 (55:35):
I didn't like it. Were like I was talking about
when I don't like it.

Speaker 1 (55:37):
Right, Yeah, We've.

Speaker 4 (55:38):
Got so many companies in the US. We know the US,
we know at least what's going on.

Speaker 2 (55:41):
We're more transparent.

Speaker 4 (55:43):
So that's why, like US as a firm has been
more outside of stand away from China for the last
few years. Maybe one day we'll get back in, but
we're not in a rush. There's so many other opportunities
in the vesting world.

Speaker 3 (55:54):
Mm hmm, there are there are so oil. Oil is
up twenty five cents on the week. Sixty seven quarter,
gold got above three thousand for the first time in history,
closed to twenty nine to ninety, up eighty six dollars
on the week, but gold above three thousand, So just
keeps going regardless of what's going on with Bitcoin down
three percent, So it doesn't matter what bitcoin is doing,

(56:15):
or what the market's doing, or what the economy is doing,
or tariffts or anything.

Speaker 1 (56:19):
Gold just keeps on keeping on.

Speaker 5 (56:21):
Todd sent me an old message that back when we
were in college, we were still in the market, we
were looking at the markets, we were studying to be
participating in markets in the future. And this was five
years ago. He sends me an article gold burst above
seventeen hundred dollars with market Mayhem's stoking Haven demand five
years five years ago. Seventeen hundred Wow, like cool.

Speaker 1 (56:42):
So that's up.

Speaker 3 (56:42):
That's up fifty percent, right, that's up about well, not
even fifty percent up about what's that well, seventeen hundred
fifty it's up thirteen steps, like seventy percent.

Speaker 1 (56:51):
Yeah, pretty good, that's pretty good. Yeah. I know who's
buying gold. I don't. I don't.

Speaker 3 (56:56):
It's some country. There are rabonhood, there are country. There
is a country or countries that are buying it.

Speaker 2 (57:02):
Speaking of our theory of that was bricks.

Speaker 4 (57:04):
Countries are buying a bunch of gold trying to devalue
the dollar because they can't actually do it any other way.
That's that's our theory on how they're trying to devalue
the dollar. Bricks country is trying to take over the
world currency, which is the most powerful ones a dollar.

Speaker 3 (57:17):
I thought a lot about that theory, and I just
don't get I can't get on board with it.

Speaker 1 (57:21):
Whatever.

Speaker 3 (57:22):
But Apple, speaking of China.

Speaker 5 (57:24):
Oh what I suppose you think that Costco's doing it?

Speaker 1 (57:27):
Do I?

Speaker 5 (57:27):
That Costco's spiking gold?

Speaker 3 (57:30):
The Apple hit an all time high. I get this
the day after Christmas last year, December twenty sixth, hitt
an all time high. Has since dropped by twenty percent
concerns about it is a ritually valued stock. The pe
is very high, facing increased competition and uncertainty, primarily in China.

Speaker 5 (57:49):
You know what else is off twenty percent off its highs.

Speaker 3 (57:52):
There's a ton of things I needed, a whole bunch
of them.

Speaker 5 (57:54):
Yeah, you're right, But one that I'm keeping in mind
is Amazon. Yeah, Amazon's not going nowhere.

Speaker 2 (57:59):
No.

Speaker 3 (57:59):
And I've got a friend that wanted to buy Amazon
when it was down ten percent, and I said, no,
I want to be twenty percent.

Speaker 1 (58:03):
He got down twenty percent. I called.

Speaker 3 (58:04):
I said, okay, it's down twenty percent, and he goes, no,
not now.

Speaker 4 (58:07):
So you think it's going to go down fifty per cent?
Once it starts dropping, it thinks that it's going to
just keep going down. But then I was My brother
has been trying to get into Reddit for a long time,
and I kept telling him. I was like, nah, I
don't think it's I think it's going to pull back.
It shot from one oh six to two thirty, and
he was all mad and stuff. And then it brought
back down to one sixteen in like three weeks. But

(58:29):
it kept dropping and we're like, okay, we'll probably go lower.
Now it was back to one thirty. You lose your chance.
And there's but, like I was saying, there's so many
other opportunities. You don't necessarily have to be fixated on one.
If you really truly believe in the company, start buying
a little bit, and then if it drops, you buy more.

Speaker 5 (58:43):
When people were scared, just when we make the most money,
I mean, what was happening on Thursday, Dave, what were
you doing?

Speaker 3 (58:48):
Yeah, well this is interesting because this past week you
might want to say, Okay, as a money manager, what
do you do. Well, last week we had a hedge position,
an ETF that goes up twice as fas as the
market goes down, just as a hedge.

Speaker 1 (59:03):
We took half that off.

Speaker 3 (59:05):
I have clients that had come in that were sitting,
as did you guys sit in cash? We deployed some
of that cash. I had a relatively aggressive client came
in year year and a half ago, and I had
them slowly over time, got an eighty percent invested in
the market. But I continue to hold twenty percent in

(59:25):
treasury just in case.

Speaker 1 (59:27):
Just in case.

Speaker 3 (59:28):
Well, I took half that put that into the market.
So what you do when you get that kind of
a drop is you reduce your hedges, you increase your
long positions, and it works out.

Speaker 1 (59:40):
Sometimes it takes time.

Speaker 3 (59:41):
Somebody asked me the other day or two ago, is
this a good buying opportunity?

Speaker 1 (59:44):
Absolutely?

Speaker 3 (59:45):
When market goes down ten percent, that's a very good
buying opportunity. Is it the best ever?

Speaker 1 (59:51):
No?

Speaker 3 (59:51):
I mean, I've got a I think my Tesla model.
Why when at least it was sixty four thousand. I
spoke to a client on Friday and he just bought
with the tax incentive, and they're offering eight thousand dollars
off the sticker because Tesla was struggling a little bit.

Speaker 1 (01:00:07):
Right now, he's.

Speaker 3 (01:00:09):
Thirty four thousand tax tid to license out the door out. Wow,
thirty four thousand.

Speaker 4 (01:00:13):
You don't know if it's the best time to buy
ever until it's after the fact. That absolutely March at
twenty twenty, we bought Microsoft as a firm because we
thought it was a good time. The market's just tanked
thirty percent. Turns out it was the bottom of the
bottom for Microsoft.

Speaker 1 (01:00:28):
It's tripled.

Speaker 2 (01:00:28):
It is tripled since then.

Speaker 4 (01:00:29):
We bought it one hundred and twenty three dollars to
share the change. You don't know that when you do it.
We just thought, Okay, it's a good time to buy.
It's good you think it's a good time. We'll start
getting clients into it, and we bought a position in it.
Obviously it's at three eighty, it was at four eighty
at one point four fifty, But we didn't know. We're
not saying on that day that it's the best time
ever to buy. We thought it was a good time
to buy, just like it might be on Monday. Might

(01:00:52):
be a good time to buy Amazon, and that might
be the lowest Amazon ever goes again, you don't know,
but it's again. If you want to start a position
in a company, lot of companies have taken a hit
in the last two weeks, start a position, put twenty
five percent of what you actually want to do, and
start dollar cousets averaging in and we actually got your
feet wet, and then your your whole mindset, your whole
belief changes.

Speaker 3 (01:01:13):
And we absolutely always have a plan. And if you're
a home gamer, you've got to have a plan. And
don't just not the seat of the pants stuff. Now
I get up one morning and look at the screen,
go oh maybe that's gonna be good. Oh maybe that's
gonna be good.

Speaker 4 (01:01:25):
If you want to do that, just do zero dated
options and then you don't have to worry about what
the next dame.

Speaker 5 (01:01:29):
And also just choosing a quality company, right, I mean
something that you're okay with buying and okay with dropping
another ten percent because you know that Amazon's not going
to go nowhere.

Speaker 3 (01:01:39):
Right, Let's talk a little bit about Tesla.

Speaker 2 (01:01:42):
Jeez, I've never heard you talk about Tesla.

Speaker 3 (01:01:44):
Le touched on a little bit.

Speaker 5 (01:01:45):
Then it's got hammered.

Speaker 3 (01:01:46):
It got hammered fifteen percent on Monday. It was the
worst day for the stock since the pandemic, but it
rallied after President Trump signals his intent to buy a
Tesla and Morgan Stanley recommended to buy the shares on
this dip. Tesla has become the poster child for must caters.
If you hate what what Musk is doing, you're just

(01:02:09):
anti Tesla.

Speaker 5 (01:02:10):
And you're going to get tried as a domestic terrorists
if you do anything to those dealerships. That's what Trump says.

Speaker 3 (01:02:15):
Well, I mean, it's unbelievable's happening. And to what to
arrest in the Northwest for fire bombing Tesla dealerships.

Speaker 5 (01:02:23):
I saw somebody on I think it was x Twitter. Yeah,
they went and bought a Tesla and then just demolished
it to get back at Elon Musk.

Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
And after them.

Speaker 3 (01:02:35):
After Morgan Stanley raised their raised it to a buy,
Goggenheim lowered the price target to one seventy. Stock finished
on Friday around fifty I think somewhere around there. They
lowered the price target to one to fifty and habited
a sell. Last week, Morgan Stanley named it their top
pick in the auto sector.

Speaker 5 (01:02:53):
Somebody's wrong that What was the price target that Morgan
Stanley gave it? It was something crazy, right.

Speaker 3 (01:03:00):
Fifty fifty percent upside Yeah. Friday, Elon Musk warned the
US Trade Representative in an unsigned letter that it is
exposed that Tesla is exposed to retaliatory tariffs, and you
wonder if that might not be a turning point in
the trade wars. If Elon's starting to get hurt in
Tesla and in space X, might that make a difference

(01:03:23):
to Trump?

Speaker 1 (01:03:25):
I don't know it could.

Speaker 3 (01:03:26):
Separately, Wells Fargo lowered their price target on the ev maker,
citing a shocking sales drop in Europe?

Speaker 5 (01:03:34):
Are you kidding me?

Speaker 1 (01:03:35):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:03:35):
But then I had a client call me on Friday
to get money out of his account. He's seventy eight
years old, he's politically on the right side. And his
neighbor a couple of doors down got a Tesla, and
my client said, the neighbor was like, kind of embarrassed

(01:03:55):
to tell him that he had gotten a Tesla. You
know that's a tree hugger car, right Well now, so,
so my client said, So he asked me if I
wanted to drive it? And so I wanted to drive it,
and he goes, I'm addicted. It is unbelievable. So he
gets getting money out of his account to get a
test on it, not only to support Elon, but because
he just loves it. And I've always I've told friends

(01:04:16):
of mine that if if you have any thought about
a Tesla, no matter whether your thought is positive negative,
but don't test drive it. If you're done, you're absolutely going.

Speaker 1 (01:04:26):
To buy it. Yeah, you're good, buy it.

Speaker 5 (01:04:28):
Going back, you said that they're still doing the tax
credits on these Teslas if you buy.

Speaker 3 (01:04:32):
Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, And it's not and it's not
tax credit, it's cash at the at the at the
point of sale. Now they changed that January of last year.
What do they give you, Well, here's a check or
off what be off the sales price, obviously if you're
buying it. And one of the interesting parts about that
is probably at least fifty percent of the people buying

(01:04:55):
Teslas don't qualify for the tax credit because it's income based. No,
and they are kind of expensive cars. But that this
guy could walk out the door, tax title, license, everything,
a model why which is the number one selling car
in the world. For thirty four thousand dollars.

Speaker 2 (01:05:12):
It's great.

Speaker 3 (01:05:12):
It's pretty dwn good.

Speaker 2 (01:05:13):
It's pretty darn good about Southwest.

Speaker 4 (01:05:17):
Yeah, fifty four years tradition going down the drain. They're
no longer gonna have open seating, They're no longer gonna
have two free check bags for every customer. You're gonna
have to be they're a tier, top tier people. And
then if you have a Southwest credit card, you get
one bag check free. And then they're gonna have the
business elect class, they're gonna have the coach. They're turning

(01:05:38):
into every other airline. The thing that has set them
apart for fifty years is going away. So they're taking
a three hundred million dollar gamble. They said they're expecting
to generate about one point four billion in the bag
fees and all that, but lose about one point eight
billion in the next year or so in.

Speaker 2 (01:05:56):
People not booking with them.

Speaker 5 (01:05:58):
And I think that they did a good job about
They're trying to maintain the relationship with the people that
really like to fly Southwest. Still, if you have a
Southwest Rapid Rewards credit card, you are still going to
be able to check a free bag. If you are
whatever tier number, you get two bags, right. And I

(01:06:19):
truly think that this is probably a really good play
for the company. I think that the pricing models on
your seats is gonna every other airline out there takes
advantage of it. It's time that Southwest does it. Do
they really attract enough buyers to their company to use
Southwest to okay, buy a ticket on this airline just
so I could get a free air or a free bag,

(01:06:41):
or that way I could choose my seats. I don't
think so.

Speaker 4 (01:06:44):
That's the gamble. But it's mainly because of Elliott. Active
Management took people stake in the company a year ago,
and they are a big private equity investment fund. They
took a huge stake in it because they wanted to
change it. And I don't know how many seats on
the board they took over, but I'm.

Speaker 3 (01:06:59):
Guessing couple, yeah, two or three here, yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:07:01):
And they're the ones that have been hammering this behind
the scenes as to change your model, change this, and
change everything that you've been doing for fifty four years.
And because they want better revenue, that's what private equity does.
They want to come in and they're all about the
bottom line and the numbers and the revenue increase and
then they sell it.

Speaker 5 (01:07:16):
I'm not sure how that stock finished the week up,
but I think initially off the news they popped up
about eight eight percent give or take.

Speaker 3 (01:07:23):
Ten drop ten percent on and think good reaction to today.

Speaker 2 (01:07:26):
Yeah, yeah, we'll see the people. I know.

Speaker 4 (01:07:29):
I mean, obviously is a select them out. The reason
they use Southwest is because of the free bags.

Speaker 3 (01:07:34):
Seriously, yeah, I mean it's like fifty bucks.

Speaker 2 (01:07:37):
Yeah, people don't want to pay that.

Speaker 1 (01:07:39):
Okay, I did.

Speaker 3 (01:07:40):
I'm not, yeah, you know, dismissing fifty bucks, but it
isn't going to change my airline if I'm if it's
going where I want to go.

Speaker 5 (01:07:48):
Right, and especially if you know, Okay, I want to
fly to Atlanta and I have a non stop on
Delta and I have to stop somewhere with the Southwest one,
but I get a free back on Southwest. I'm not
gonna be a turn from Delta just to go in
the Southwest to get the free bag. I'm gonna take
my NonStop flight.

Speaker 1 (01:08:05):
Man to fly.

Speaker 2 (01:08:05):
Well, That's what I'm saying. But Delta has nice planes
and stuff.

Speaker 4 (01:08:08):
Southwest planes need to be upgraded if they're gonna have
the same prices as Delta and United who have these
new planes, who have been upgrading for ten years. Delta
Southwest is gonna behind the game. They got to do
it quick, is what I'm saying.

Speaker 3 (01:08:18):
Yeah, I flew to the Midwest twice last year last summer,
and paying for bags didn't even be able to enter
my mind. I just didn't.

Speaker 4 (01:08:28):
I didn't realize that became a thing after two thousand
and one to help airlines recover costs. Yeah, and it
wasn't supposed to be permanent.

Speaker 3 (01:08:33):
Oh no, temporary yeah, a fuel like a fuel charge
thing right.

Speaker 2 (01:08:37):
Turn into social security?

Speaker 3 (01:08:38):
Oh yeah, temporary to permanent.

Speaker 1 (01:08:41):
Hey.

Speaker 5 (01:08:42):
But also with oil being lower, it's gonna help these
airlines out.

Speaker 1 (01:08:45):
I think, oh big time.

Speaker 4 (01:08:46):
Prices are down for airlines, They're definitely down. I've been
looking at different flights going ticket ticket prices are down.

Speaker 2 (01:08:53):
Keep me going well, I mean.

Speaker 4 (01:08:54):
I Lexington, Kentucky from Tucson when college it was like
seven years eight years ago, ten years ago, it was
seven hundred dollars a ticket to get to Lexington because
it's a small airport. From Tucson Airport, it was four
fifty going. During the Horse Race meets, which is the
biggest time of year in yeah October, yeah, okay, or

(01:09:15):
if they do much cheaper than it's ever been that
I've seen.

Speaker 2 (01:09:18):
So it was interesting. Wait did you sorry, did.

Speaker 5 (01:09:20):
You guys see what Delta did?

Speaker 2 (01:09:21):
Uh huh?

Speaker 5 (01:09:22):
So coming out start the year, they had a January
estimate calling for about a six to eight percent rise
in the revenue, and then they come out with their
earnings report this last week and they say that they're
not going to be growing any more than a five
percent on the yearly basis, totally slash their expectations going forward,
and I think that that's what brought down the airline
sucks that day. I think that came in after the Southwest,

(01:09:44):
So again I'm not sure where Southwest ended up finishing
the week, got that initial ten percent pop, then Delta
comes in reports horrible earnings. All airlines go down.

Speaker 3 (01:09:53):
One of one of the things that weighed on the
market this week is earnings reports were generally pretty darn good,
but almost every single company gave cautious guidance. And you
can understand why. With the tariff thing going on, You're
entering a world here where we don't know really was
and that's why businesses are pulling back on expansion plans.

(01:10:13):
That's why my friends customers not buying or furniture because
you just don't know. So, you know, things are changing here,
and I think we all hope that they're going to
ultimately change for the better. But right now there's a
tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market, in the economy.

Speaker 1 (01:10:33):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:10:34):
And if this uncertainty and all of all this news
and stuff makes you nervous, makes it scary, It makes
you uncertain about what your future is for retirement, give
us a call. We always talk about our financial plan.

Speaker 2 (01:10:43):
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Speaker 4 (01:10:44):
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Speaker 5 (01:11:03):
If we get those if we get those medical advancements
that Dean was talking about, and we're living to one
hundred and five hundred and ten years old. You want
to see if your plan's going to make it that long.
I could send you one hundred and fifty years old.
See see how it works.

Speaker 3 (01:11:14):
Those scary's been around for ninety years. No one's ever
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Speaker 5 (01:11:18):
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Speaker 4 (01:11:24):
It's a lot of nerves at ease, and it makes
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Speaker 3 (01:11:30):
And if your statements make you uncomfortable, don't open them.
If watching the market makes you uncomfortable, turn off the tv.
There are solutions, people. This is not a time to
be freaking out. Just relax. Every market decline in history
had been followed by a new all time high. We'll
be right back, Welcome back. This is the Money Matter Show,
Segment five. On a Sunday morning in the desert, and

(01:11:54):
things are getting warming up a little bit after we
could rain and cold, and Lord knows we needed it.
I think I stress more about the moisture than almost anybody,
and I don't know why. I think it's because I
love this place and I don't want to have to leave.

Speaker 5 (01:12:09):
I think that in some alternate universe, maybe you're a
weather mass.

Speaker 3 (01:12:12):
I could see myself as the weather man. I really
one of the primary issues with me, or one of
the primary problems, is I'm outside a lot. Yeah, so
the weather does matter.

Speaker 2 (01:12:24):
You're looking at that a lot.

Speaker 1 (01:12:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:12:25):
And I'm outside in the summer, and I'm outside in
the winter. And when you're outside a lot, the weather
really matters.

Speaker 2 (01:12:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:12:31):
If you're if you're planning your kid's birthday party side
of park, hit Dave, I'll let you know if it's
going to rain that day or not.

Speaker 1 (01:12:36):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:12:36):
Yeah, it's I'll do a better job than the weather man.

Speaker 2 (01:12:39):
OK.

Speaker 3 (01:12:39):
I'm sure generally, I generally generally know what's going on.
A couple of things from the past. How about docu
sign Oh wow, seventy five percent below it's pandemic high.
Remember how in the pandemic wine of us we're ever
going to go out again? And if you bought a house,
you wouldn't be able to have the cellar there when
you look at it, and you'd have to close by
docusige and and nobody's ever going to see anybody again,

(01:13:00):
down seventy five percent from the pandemic. I had did
pop fifteen percent on Friday after finding out how much
Greenberg Financial has been using it. Actually, I don't think
that was a specific reason they cited. But I've never
been a fan. No, I've never used docusin a lot,
just never needed in my life. My goodness, this conversion

(01:13:23):
we've done. If you're not a client, that we converted
from a broker dealer to a registered investment advisor, which
is essentially moving from Old Greenberg to New Greenberg. And
each of our clients needed to sign letters authorization to
do that, and clients all over the country and all
over the world, and Docusine made it so much easier,

(01:13:45):
so easy, and so I don't think it's going to
go away anytime.

Speaker 5 (01:13:48):
So it's kind of the way of the world. You
think all realtors use it when you're buying a house now.

Speaker 3 (01:13:52):
Yeah, most clients are, Most clients are comfortable with it
and are familiar with it.

Speaker 5 (01:13:58):
It gets me thinking about Zoom. I've been watching that.
I've been watching that stock a little bit. It's trading
in the seventies, which was.

Speaker 2 (01:14:04):
A little bit lower.

Speaker 5 (01:14:05):
I'd take a stab at it. But they they've been
kind of integrating some new artificial intelligence stuff into their
platform as in a lot of these colleges, and they
do online classes right, so now as a student, I'm
able to encapsulate this whole hour long class and just
say AI, you know, Zoom summarizes for me, and that's

(01:14:30):
that's pretty cool. And not to mention, I think about
how Microsoft, for example, they have Ward, they have Excel,
they have all these things. They have teams. Now, when
you're a University of Arizona student, at least you have
that license, the Microsoft license that gets you access to
Microsoft Word, to Excel, to all of their platforms. What

(01:14:51):
other licenses does University of Arizona give you? Zoom because
that's the only thing that they that at least U
have a uses.

Speaker 3 (01:14:59):
So as a you have a student, you automatically have Zoom.

Speaker 5 (01:15:02):
Yes, correct, Oka correct, you have a Zoom account and
that's if you have an online class, that's how you
log into it. A lot of the times they teachers,
you know, you might go to class in person, but
at the same time they'll cover the lecture and that's
set up through Zoom. That certification to give to your
thousands of students costs a ton of money. I think

(01:15:23):
that they're the leader in this space. Obviously. Of course, yes,
there's other video platforms out there that will be used,
but I think that Zoom is a big one, and
I think that a lot of colleges out there are
going to be utilizing that.

Speaker 3 (01:15:37):
Another stock we've often had fun with on the show
is Peloton about how how long can they stay in
business and how the machine is a wonderful place to
hang clothes. But you know, quietly, the stock has more
than doubled off the August low, and they're trying to
come back from the dead. The rally was kicked off
by an agreement with Costco. They've done agreement with Costo

(01:15:59):
to sell their devices in Costco stores. That agreement was
over the holidays. It has been extended. The equipment is
still for sale. Stock jumped another fourteen percent last Friday
on a brokerage upgrade to buy Saint Pelagton has regained
its footing, is a clear leader in the fitness space.
You know it's but remember the now seven dollars stock

(01:16:23):
up from two seventy five, used to be one sixty.

Speaker 2 (01:16:27):
So one hundred and sixty dollars a year.

Speaker 3 (01:16:29):
Yeah, one hundred and sixty dollars a year, not a
dollar sixty. It was one hundred and sixty dollars.

Speaker 4 (01:16:33):
When I use a peloton, I love it. I just
won't buy one anymore. But like I during twenty twenty,
everybody was contemplating because they said, I don't know if
a gym's going.

Speaker 2 (01:16:41):
To open again.

Speaker 5 (01:16:41):
What do you mean when you use one?

Speaker 2 (01:16:43):
What do you use one like the gym?

Speaker 1 (01:16:44):
Oh?

Speaker 5 (01:16:44):
Really yeah?

Speaker 2 (01:16:45):
At forty five.

Speaker 4 (01:16:46):
No, there's a gym that I go do that has them,
and this is the only time I use it, So
the gym buys it. I go to the gym still
and then I'll use it. But I'm not buying one
at home. And I don't know anybody that's bought a
new one. They just have one from years ago. They're
great though you use them, they get a great workout. Yeah,
I'm just that's the only reason they're staying in.

Speaker 3 (01:17:06):
But it's kind of like every other treadmill.

Speaker 2 (01:17:09):
I'm talking bike.

Speaker 4 (01:17:11):
Yeah, bike, Yeah, it's like you go to it's like
going to a bike class, like a spin class by yourself.

Speaker 5 (01:17:16):
Don't you need to like a pay for membership for
this monthly subscription.

Speaker 2 (01:17:20):
Yeah, the gym does. So I don't have to, right, right,
But you can.

Speaker 1 (01:17:24):
But you don't have to, right.

Speaker 5 (01:17:26):
But Oh okay. So if I'm a consumer and I
want to buy a peloton at my house, yes, I
need to buy the subscription.

Speaker 3 (01:17:33):
I don't need to know, you don't need to make
It'll enhance the experience, gotcha, It enhance the experience.

Speaker 5 (01:17:38):
I just I personally don't think that I'm going to
be buying the subscription because what does that give me?
One item? I could bike? If I pay the same
feat La Fitness, I have the world of my hands.

Speaker 1 (01:17:48):
You know.

Speaker 3 (01:17:48):
The value stocks have done better this year. Hoverizon was
up sixteen percent, but down seven percent on Tuesday after
saying wireless subscriber growth in the fourth quarter will often
do to off season promotions by competitors. How about because
you're lying to us about you on your ads, and
so that's what I would say, all of these ads

(01:18:09):
you see on TV about come and get the new
iPhone sixteen on us bogus, bogus, I've been down this road.
The only way, okay, you can get the new iPhone
sixteen free, but it requires a more expensive plan plan. Yeah. Yeah,
it's the whole thing. That just just a house of mirrors.

Speaker 5 (01:18:31):
No free lunch in this world, Dave.

Speaker 3 (01:18:32):
No, it's just a house of mirrors. And it's irritating frankly.
And I think if you're going to upgrade your phone,
you go to the Apple Store and buy it and
then and then turn it onto your network and don't
even get Verizon or AT and TI or any of
these other kind.

Speaker 4 (01:18:46):
Of like in our business, when you hear people talk
about you get if you're buying a newd or you
get ten percent.

Speaker 1 (01:18:51):
Yes, right, yeah there, yes, funny.

Speaker 4 (01:18:53):
Technically, yeah, it's not lying, it's bibbing, it's just just
stringing in along. But what it is is money is
the funny money, which is you get ten percent on
income money if you keep the annuity alive. You don't
put it in one hundred thousand dollars into annuity and
automatically get ten thousand dollars. So then you close the
annuity and you close it with one hundred and ten
thousand dollars. That's not how that works. It goes towards

(01:19:15):
an income writer. If you pay for the income writer,
you get a little higher income boost, so it could
be beneficial to you. But the way it's advertised is
not very straightforward.

Speaker 3 (01:19:24):
He's not straightforward. It's very misleading, as is a free
iPhone ad.

Speaker 2 (01:19:29):
Exactly.

Speaker 3 (01:19:30):
I had a client call me to your dan and said,
my bankers said that I can get a five percent
in my savings account. I said for what term? He
goes three months? I said what after that? And he goes, well,
it goes to market rate just two and a half three?

Speaker 1 (01:19:44):
You know whatever.

Speaker 3 (01:19:45):
That's that's not right, that's not right.

Speaker 5 (01:19:47):
Wait, I got one go ahead, Redifin did you hear
about that?

Speaker 1 (01:19:50):
Who?

Speaker 5 (01:19:51):
Redifin?

Speaker 2 (01:19:52):
No? What's up with threads? Finn?

Speaker 5 (01:19:53):
Do you know what Redfin is?

Speaker 2 (01:19:54):
Okay?

Speaker 1 (01:19:55):
For the people a realty company?

Speaker 2 (01:19:57):
Yeah, for the people like zill It's.

Speaker 5 (01:19:58):
Exactly like Zilla, just the real estate companies sored sixty
eight percent after it announces that Rocket Companies is going
to acquire the company in an all stuck deal valued
at one point seventy five billion dollars.

Speaker 3 (01:20:10):
Well, I didn't see that.

Speaker 5 (01:20:11):
Yeah, shares a Rocket Company, though they moved fifteen percent,
lawyer or lower. Why is it so typical that when
a company buys another company out, the one that's doing
the purchase decreases.

Speaker 3 (01:20:23):
Because you've bought Rocket Mortgage because you like Rocket Mortgage
at a premium. Yeah, you know, but you like Rocket
Mortgage not because you wanted red Fin. And to acquire
all of the shares of red Fin, that Rocket Mortgage
has to pay more than Redfin is worth or people
wouldn't sell you the stock. It's kind of like that
Walgreens thing where we talk about take under takeover, you know,

(01:20:45):
to get all of the stock. They they couldn't take under.
They couldn't find enough people to sell them the stock
at nine or at ten or at eleven, so they
had to go to eleven. But forty two or something.
That's the point where they said, okay, that's a point
where we can acquire all of the shares. You try
to buy all of the shares of Walgreens in the
open market or Redfin or whatever, you're going to drive

(01:21:09):
the price well above what you need to pay if
you make a offer. So that's why. And it doesn't always.
It's not always. The acquirer doesn't always go down. If
it's going to be a creative to earnings. In other words,
immediately effective to your bottom line, it probably goes up.

(01:21:29):
But what happened is you have this period of transition
where you're trying to assimilate Redfin into Rocket Mortgage corporate structure.
How does that work, What does that cost? How many
layoffs would that involve, what kind of additional regulatory expenses involved.
It's going to take some time, it may not. In

(01:21:50):
other words, if Redfin was earning a dollar share, and
I'm just throwing that out there, they probably don't earn
a dollar share once a Rocket takes right for a
while because of the transitional cost. So I think that's
the primary reason.

Speaker 5 (01:22:06):
Yeah, that makes sense.

Speaker 1 (01:22:07):
And you want to be in.

Speaker 3 (01:22:08):
The mortgage business, not in the real estate business. Right
now you're in the real estate business. It's kind of
like Trump with his crypto reserve. You know, the taxpayers
are now all in the crypto business.

Speaker 5 (01:22:17):
Well, I think the Rocket Mortgage probably thinks that they're
going to be able to get buyers through that.

Speaker 1 (01:22:22):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:22:22):
No, absolutely, they'll become the mortgage company for the for
those buyers, they've got a leg up. They're going to
know before anybody else were signed a contract to buy
a house, because it's their real estate company.

Speaker 2 (01:22:34):
It was definitely a good acquisition.

Speaker 3 (01:22:35):
I mean I had a fifty years ago I worked
with a guy whose wife worked at Valley National Bank
and he was in this business, and he came in
one day and he had a list of maturing CDs
a value National Bank. You can't do that. It's illegal,
which is it's totally illegal.

Speaker 2 (01:22:52):
What's illegal?

Speaker 3 (01:22:53):
Totally you can't have it, you can't be working idea
I fight and have a list of Valley Bank maturing CDs.
You know, I said, come on, But so what can
happen here is the company matt ridfin Rocket will legally
be able to have this split list of people who

(01:23:15):
are buying houses and be able to be the first
one to pitch them on their deal.

Speaker 1 (01:23:21):
So I see it a pretty good fit.

Speaker 3 (01:23:23):
But I can understand why owners of Rocket Mortgage would sell.

Speaker 5 (01:23:27):
The stock off immediately.

Speaker 1 (01:23:28):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:23:30):
Another one that's really struggling right now is Coal's department stores.

Speaker 1 (01:23:33):
Yeah, really struggling.

Speaker 3 (01:23:34):
Down twenty five percent at the open on Tuesday, following
week forward guidance and bad fourth quarter results. Estimated earnings
are less than fifty percent of what was expected. Lost
another seven percent on Wednesday. I thought when they decided
that they would take back Amazon packages that that was brilliant,
But then Whole Foods got bought by Amazon. They'll take

(01:23:55):
them back, and there's a lot more whole foods than
there are coals. So we'll be back with the last
segment of the Money Matter Show right after this break. Again,
thanks for joining us. We appreciate it.

Speaker 4 (01:24:06):
Welcome back to the final segment of this Money Matter Show.
It's been an eventful one. We had a lot of
stuff go on last week, a lot of uncertainty in
the markets been the way for the last two weeks.
And if you are uncertain about what's going on in
your financial plan, come talk to us. We'll create your
financial plan from scratch. If you have one, we can
look at it, we can see what's going on. We
can put it through our system see what If it's

(01:24:26):
the same, we can do our risk an analysis tool,
which is if you have a portfolio right now, we
can show you what your portfolio is based on its
risk and then we can also give you the risk
tolerance question there that shows you what your risk is.
If it's not the same, then you got to talk
about something. But we find a lot of benefit from
the financial plan because it just tells people build their

(01:24:46):
peace of mind for their retirement. It's really just figuring out.
I mean, the biggest question always is am I going
to run out of money? I don't want to run
out of money all of a sudden. I've been getting
a paycheck for my whole life from a company I
work for or the business I own. Now it's from
one K plan. Now it's from my I'm paying myself.
It's a weird feeling. It's a scary feeling because I'm
not sure if I have enough, And that's what the

(01:25:08):
financial plan helps to see if you have enough, and
you do. Most often they have more than they think,
and they're well off and they're ready to go for
retirement and they can do what they want. But it's
the idea of the mindset shift from accumulating money for
your whole career to now distribute the distribution phase. And
it's scary for a lot of people, which is justifiably so,

(01:25:28):
because who knows. We've been talking about AI working in
healthcare and helping people that we think is going to
help people live longer. That could happen where all of
a sudden in the one oh, five is average?

Speaker 2 (01:25:37):
Is normal?

Speaker 4 (01:25:38):
So is your money gonna last for forty years in
a retirement rather than than when it used to be?
Sixty five used to be the retirement age. It was
ten fifteen years in retirement then you pass away. Was
that life expendency You're lucky? Yeah, nowadays it's much longer.
So you're thinking money's got to last a lot longer.
But I mean, that's why we come and do the
financial plan. We show you what it is that maybe

(01:25:58):
it doesn't pay to be more risk because of that
volatility during retirement. Maybe it does pay to be more risky.
We don't know until we look at your specific plan.
The plan is tailored completely to you and your situation.
We can go through all the different scenarios that go
through your head. Any questions you have, we're here to help,
and I mean meetings last anywhere from an hour to
two hours, depending on how many questions, how intricate the

(01:26:21):
plan is.

Speaker 2 (01:26:21):
Then we go through.

Speaker 4 (01:26:22):
The second meeting is when we give our advice on
what we would do for your plan. We lay it
out in a whole pamphlet, give it to you, show
it to you, answer any question you have. We really
harp and emphasize education of the finance because it's new
to a lot of people. They just started putting money
in their retirement plan when they were twenty five and
never thought about it again. So now they're trying to

(01:26:42):
figure out what they're in, how this is going to
generate them cash for the rest of their life. That's
where we come in to educate you, to make you
feel comfortable, because the more you know about what you're
doing for your financial life, the more comfortable.

Speaker 2 (01:26:53):
You are with market girations.

Speaker 4 (01:26:55):
Like right now, we don't have a ton of people
calling who we did with the financial plan because they
know the idea that behind it. We have this one
model where it's called strategic income.

Speaker 3 (01:27:04):
You don't have a ton of people calling with concerns.

Speaker 2 (01:27:06):
Concerns about the market.

Speaker 1 (01:27:08):
Kind of people coming at you. Guys are in three
of these every day.

Speaker 4 (01:27:11):
It's sorry, current clients calling about the market volatility not
a lot because the people who went through the whole
plan sometimes those market those plans take three months to
talk about until they're comfortable enough to open an account
with us. We have one model where it's called the
strategic income model. We buy bonds at different rates in
different times, so we know we have income put away
for these people for three five years, and we can

(01:27:34):
weather the storm of a down year.

Speaker 3 (01:27:36):
You don't have to sell a single stock.

Speaker 4 (01:27:38):
You don't have to tell a stock to raise cash
during that period to raise cash, so we can send
to you the bond's mature at the end of the year.
They're ready for the next year. We're ready to send
you the money each month. So if March is down
ten percent, which not looking great so far this year,
doesn't matter. We have the money in the money market
ready to send you, so we don't have to sell.
If the markets are up ten percent in March, we

(01:27:58):
can sell stock out of profit, take some profit off
the table, put it in the money market, get ready
to buy a bond for the next time, so we
can build on the ladder during good years, not have
to sell during bad years. And it helps people sleep
at night with when they're trying to use their retirement
funds for income.

Speaker 2 (01:28:14):
Yep.

Speaker 5 (01:28:14):
And I think one of the most consistent reactions that
we get coming out of that financial planning meeting, that
initial financial planning meeting, whether they decide to become a
client or not, is a sigh of relief of being
able to visualize us. Okay, it makes sense. Now, Okay,
I'm knock going to outlive my money. Okay, I can
retire next month instead of three years from now. Come

(01:28:35):
get the peace of mind. Five two zero five four
four four nine zero nine.

Speaker 2 (01:28:38):
Yeah, everything about it is free too.

Speaker 4 (01:28:41):
The only time we would get paid is if you
decide to move forward with our recommendations. We implement the plan,
we manage your money. We get paid on the management
and the money, and then that includes unlimited times to
mess with your plan and change it. It go over
in scenarios. Happy to meet as much as you want.
On average, probably two times a year, but if you
want to be more, we're happy to do it.

Speaker 3 (01:29:00):
You get your stuff together, your community to do the
financial plan. The guy should then spend a little time
with it. They come back with the idea how they
would handle your plan. If you decide to become a client,
you pick that up and then you walk out the door.
No obligation. You'll never hear from us again.

Speaker 2 (01:29:15):
Yeah, we'll send you the plan.

Speaker 4 (01:29:15):
We will send you the risk talent's question there, The
biggest thing with the plan is we go over your goals.
We build the initial plan based on your ideal retirement,
what is your fairy tale retirement and if it can
work that way pretty easy. If we have to change
a couple of things, then we show you what changes
you have to make to make it work. Sometimes you

(01:29:35):
got to spend a little less money. But for the
most part, people are okay, they've done well, they've saved well,
they've set themselves up for the retirement that they've been
planning and wanting for their life. So it just helps
them visualize it. We have it on the TV. We're
going through with you. We don't just sit behind a
computer while you look at the back of a computer
and we push it in the punching the numbers.

Speaker 3 (01:29:55):
And this is a very The level of sophistication for
a free financial plan is ridiculus, very interactive.

Speaker 1 (01:30:01):
It's ridiculous.

Speaker 5 (01:30:02):
Nobody else is encompassing.

Speaker 1 (01:30:03):
Just because it's free doesn't mean it's bad, no, you
know what I mean. It doesn't matter if you're paying
us five grand or it's free. We're doing the same
financial plan that we would do for anybody. Right.

Speaker 3 (01:30:14):
But Deanie and I've been seeing financial punts for a
lot of years.

Speaker 1 (01:30:18):
But they don't give it to him either after they've
done well. It used to be the sellinuities and insurance
pretty much all right, and it's changed. I was talking
to somebody that's been in the business, yeah, almost as
long as we are, not really twenty five years, okay,
And he's back in New York and I was just
talking to him about it, and he's been in uh,
trying to, you know, kind of go in this direction
that we've been doing since the nineties, you know, where

(01:30:39):
you're managing feed business. And it was it was amazing
what he was telling me. He wanted, He said, Dan,
I had this great idea. I've been just getting some
people in it and I and I put him in
these mutual funds that I get a back end trail
and then I buy treasuries with it. And I said, okay,
you're getting a fee. How you doing it? He goes, no,

(01:31:00):
I just buy the bonds that I do. I said,
what do you do? What do you do for it? Yeah?
What do you mean? He said? He didn't even understand
a management agreement And they be able to work it,
and you actually are managing the money for people along
with it. So then I talked to not only him,
but a couple other people about a financial doing financial planning.

(01:31:20):
I don't want to do the fund, I said, listen,
you know that A part that was me until I
see what's going on. I said, yes, it used to
be for insurance and this and that. I said, I
can't believe how happy people are. And it doesn't matter
that they have one hundred grand or they got twenty
five million. Everybody wants to see where they are and

(01:31:41):
what they're doing and feel comfortable. And if nothing else,
it brings it all together in one report if you
have stuff, because if you've got a lot of money,
it's all over the place.

Speaker 3 (01:31:51):
Right and it forced you to together it all together,
and it forces you to talk about it with your wife.

Speaker 1 (01:31:56):
And then that's why we have a family office. We
have a state planning, We have an accountant in the offer,
we have attorneys here. We got everything to help you
be the best you can be.

Speaker 2 (01:32:07):
Yeah, and I mean that. We talked about it last
week too.

Speaker 4 (01:32:09):
For those who tuned in into the the estate planning
firm is on its own, but he works out of
our office. The tax planning Johnson John's group has their
own office over on Oracle. But we all work in tandem.
If you're a client of ours, you're working with those
two as well. We all work in tandem to try
and give you the easiest experience of your to help
you through your financial life.

Speaker 3 (01:32:29):
Yeah, and we have somebody in it virtually every area.
I mean it dot matter what you want, whether it
be accountant or a lawyer or whatever you need in
your life. I have a client of mind that called
me and wanted to know a good electrician, and the
guy came over and did the work for us. She goes,
this is the ninth one you've given me. That's been great.

(01:32:49):
The ninth person me.

Speaker 5 (01:32:51):
And Dylan got a client that he's about thirty four
years old and he was on his way to purchase
a home and he send us the numbers, sent us, hey,
can you throw this into the plan really quick? Is
this going to be able to work out for me?
And we said, yeah, go pull the trigger.

Speaker 2 (01:33:03):
Man.

Speaker 1 (01:33:04):
I still get people.

Speaker 5 (01:33:05):
It was a really cool experience.

Speaker 1 (01:33:06):
Actually, I still get people calling me Dean, what do
I get a good pastami sandwich? Yeah? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:33:13):
Or do you know everybody that can get a deal
on a car. Yeah, it's just such a wide myriad.
Uh Intel in the news again this week and see
if the shares were up eight percent. On Tuesday, Reuters
reported that Taiwan Semi has raised the prospect of a
joint venture with Nvidia, a MD and Broadcom to operate

(01:33:33):
Intel's foundry division. Then we talked about that planet in
Phoenix foundry and going to be manufacturing trips for a
lot of people. Apparently that's going to be Intel's future.

Speaker 5 (01:33:42):
That wasn't even the biggest news though. With the CEO change.

Speaker 1 (01:33:44):
Of the CEO change is huge.

Speaker 3 (01:33:47):
They got a CEO that's pretty well thought of and
hopefully you can get them on the right drive.

Speaker 1 (01:33:52):
It's a probably good chance. Before he became CEO, he
was talking to them about doing something in that too.
I'm thinking, yeah, you know what I mean, these guys
all talk, they all know each other. Well, he's from
that business.

Speaker 3 (01:34:01):
But it could be that that's Intel's future or just
a manufacturing facility for others, which is fine, right, And
you make a living doing that?

Speaker 1 (01:34:09):
Yeah, Well they want money, did you? Yeah? You you
had to show profitable.

Speaker 5 (01:34:13):
What's special that's a Taiwan does it?

Speaker 1 (01:34:15):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:34:15):
Of course you can make.

Speaker 1 (01:34:16):
A living doing how about your Pepsi.

Speaker 2 (01:34:18):
Yo, yo, it's all all over the place.

Speaker 3 (01:34:21):
You've been touting Pepsi around the office. How much you'll
love Pepsi, Pepsi. What happened this week? Downgrade from Jefferies.

Speaker 1 (01:34:29):
Yeah, I don't think it's the sod who likes. It's
all the snack.

Speaker 5 (01:34:32):
It's all it's all the snacks. And it's the fact
that they're taking their distribution right now, pet Dave, Pepsi
has a distribution in the sense of, Okay, you send
the trucks with the sodas and you send the trucks
with the chips. They're going to merge every single one
both of those into one truck, right. That's a cut.

Speaker 1 (01:34:49):
That's that come to think about it is uh.

Speaker 3 (01:34:54):
Yeah, I mean what you and I have talked about
it before. Pepsi's big move is an effort to cut costs,
try to maintain margins. It's trying. They're trying to survive
because of some brilliant new idea.

Speaker 1 (01:35:06):
No, it's not a going forward. It's going to be
a Pepsi and Evy tesla. There you go.

Speaker 3 (01:35:11):
You can actually buy a trunk a cooler for the
trunk of the tesla. That plugs in, and I'm thinking
that's why I need another thing, another thing drawn on
the battery.

Speaker 1 (01:35:19):
Right, all right, people, we are coming to the conclusion
of our two hour show. Remember there's many places to
see it here, go back and listen to it. If
you need to come and talk to us, set up
an appointment, would be glad to go over. Do anything
that you need to help you out. We are here
for you. We educate you, we help you, we answer
your questions. This is what we do. We'll be back

(01:35:40):
next week with your money matters. Be happy, be healthy,
and we all want to strive to be

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