Market Turmoil: Navigating Trade Wars and Recession Fears

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Good morning everybody. It's that time once again, eight o'clock
right here, seven ninety K and s TE and it
is the Money by the Show with Dean Greenberg. It's
gonna be exciting show. And I'm going to talk straight
up to you about everything that's going on, and I'm
gonna give you a former money managed position, and that means,

(00:30):
what are we what are we doing for our clients?
How are we doing this? They get to navigate. Obviously,
it's like crazy, man. It's you got to be nervous
because nobody knows what's going on. Not because I'm saying
the administration doesn't know what's going on. I'm telling you
the media and everyone they get on that, especially the

(00:51):
ones that hey, Trump just want to bring it down
and the market goes down and they just come and
and topple on top. I'd been through this so many times.
We've been talking about the markets for since last September.
You can go back and listen to the shows. I've
been telling you they were too elevated. I've been saying

(01:12):
that the forty eight hundred to fifty two hundred on
the S and P five hundred was a support zone.
But that was over twenty percent down from the top,
we got to forty eight hundred. It doesn't mean you're
not gonna lose money when it goes down, but we
told you to mitigate risk. Mitigate risk by putting on hedges,

(01:32):
having more cash than you normally do have, being in
more fixed income than you usually do, having money market
fund having inverse funds. Now we're getting out of the
inverse funds, sold them the sds, which was the hedge
against the account, raising more cash. Looking for what opportunity
is going to occur next week, starting on Monday, if

(01:56):
we continue to go down, I will jump in between
forty eight hundred and five thousand, and we will start
buying and I will get more aggressive and see where
it goes. You're gonna hear pundits all we get along
here talking about this could be like nineteen twenty nine.
The tariffs came in in nineteen thirty and later the

(02:18):
depression already started from the stock market. This is the
opposite the stockbuk was there. The stock market is reacting
to tariffs. You see all these things about market crashes.
Always with the Republicans, they forget what led into it.
They tried to tell you in two thousand and eight,
that was Bush, that was Obama, but they'll say Bush

(02:42):
started it. Well, then in two thousand and one, they'll
say it's Bush, but they won't say Clinton started it.
Twenty eighteen, twenty and twenty two, that conveniently forget, we
were down twenty three percent. This feels so much like
two with the tech stocks getting smashed and you know

(03:05):
what happened after that. Okay, you know what happened after that.
But it's got to be quality positions. You're buying quality
companies and build a position. People that have been around
this thing a long time understand that if you if
you scared and you came and you can serve you
an indexes. Yes, you're gonna lose money when the indexes
come up, but you're not gonna lose as much. Usually

(03:28):
as individual stocks, they give you the best reward. Look
at your portfolio, clean it up right now, get rid
of stocks that it might be for much longer haul
and take a much longer time to come back. Go
and look for the good quality stuff that has gotten
beaten up that you know we have to use. You know,
you got to use Microsoft every day, you know, no

(03:51):
matter what you're addicted to Amazon, you know that you're
gonna go ahead and google something at least once a day.
You know, nothing can work for AI if you don't
have navideo chips. There's a lot out there that you

(04:11):
can look at and see where that fits in and
can you take advantage. If you do not want to
buy individual, go buy the XLK, Go buy some of
the ets that have whatever technology or a fund you want. Yes,
right now, consumer staples have been working. Drugs have been
working because that's where the big money runs to. They'll

(04:34):
come out of that in a heartbeat and jump into
these others as soon as they feel like there's a
bottom there. The markets are scary and they should make
you nervous. I've been this in a long time. It
always makes me nervous. But I also know from experience
this is when you start looking for opportunities and you
start looking as they go down to we live through

(04:54):
the thirty forty fifty percent move. I'm not saying that's
the case, and if you mitigated risk, you will not
be down as much as the markets. The S ANDP
is down almost ten percent for this week in the Nasdaq,
the Dow is down almost eight percent, Russell down almost
ten percent. The equal weight that did the best, that's
eight and a half percent, because that's a mix of

(05:16):
the big steady companies and also the technologies where the
S and P five hundred is mostly is not equal weighted,
which means it's weighted towards the technology stocks. For the week,
for the year, we are now turned down. Dow is
down ten, S and P is down almost fourteen, Nazac's

(05:36):
down twenty, Russell's down eighteen. RSP, the equal weight is
down ten. And are you living? Are you up? Are
you breathing? You are? And you will continue even if
it goes lower. You will continue to do this and
the course will be there and this will turn around.
And these tariffs, okay, yes, I'm the first one to
tell you. I couldn't understand what the heck they were

(05:58):
talking about, because when they came out and said reciprocal
tariffs ten percent, I thought, if somebody had seventeen percent,
like Israel, we have seventeen percent against Israel. But then
Israel says we took away a tariffs, but we still
hit them with seventeen and a half percent. And there
was other countries too, and then they put up some
formula whis brought us back to calculus days that wanted

(06:19):
to make us all puke. Okay, But at the end
of the day, what they were trying to do and
they did a very bad job I think of communicating this.
They forget that people don't understand financial business industries. They
know to watch the bottom line if they make a
lose money, and when they're losing money, they don't know

(06:39):
anything what's going on. But the bottom line is this.
What they want to do is realize for the last
fifty years we've been being taking care of taking advantage
of on trade. They were looking at trade and balances
and wanted to reciprocate with call putting on tariffs. So,
in other words, to somebody had we we're they they

(07:02):
they're making like Canada for instance. Okay, perfect example. If
we trade with them and they get they get three
hundred billion dollars from us, we get one hundred billion
dollars from them, it's a two hundred billion dollar deficit
towards them to US and a two hundred billion dollar
increase to them. And what Trump wants to do is

(07:23):
make that equal on paper. That sounds okay, but somehow, someway,
we're gonna have to realize there's some products it's not there.
Why don't we just get rid of tariffs all together
and just let the markets have free trade. If we
need their product more than they need our product, then
they're going to make more money. Now, there's certain things

(07:45):
like steel and stuff that we need for our country
and defense that we have to be careful about. And
that's what we're trying to do, is go ahead and
bring back the things we need to survive as a
country so we can't be in the same position as
the pandemic. I'm not sure this feeling of chaotic I'm

(08:07):
throwing this out there does anything other than feed chum
to the sharks that hate Trump. Every single person on
there will tell you this is horrible, this is horrible,
This is horrible. This is horrible. And then you see
going back into nineteen ninety eight, they're starting to show

(08:28):
you Nancy Pelosi with her charts on a billboard talking
about how we got to level out trade and that
is not fair that the United States would be taken
care of. And this was during the Clinton years. Why
has anything changed, It's gotten worse. The world is allowed
China to become a superpower on our backs because they

(08:51):
were able to produce things cheaper in sweatshops, not paying
their people everything that we disagree with. So I'm not
gonna say that if we go ahead and start manufacturing
our own products the ones we can, we can't do everything,
it's not gonna cost us a little bit more, because
it will because people want to get wages. But we've

(09:14):
already gotten the wages there. We're already had twenty twenty
five dollars for a lot of wages. Those we can
live with. With our products, we will have to pay
some more and we will increase and people will have
to make more money. And that's what will happen when
we start producing a great economy. I'm finally seeing and

(09:35):
understanding it's gonna take time. I think the message is good.
The messenger and communication was terrible, and the markets don't
know what's going on. And of course what you have
is that well, he could just change everything with a
just a tex He's trying to be transparent. People can't

(09:55):
stand change. But I mean, I'm gonna tell you right now,
I don't care what side you're on. Everyone agrees and
it's discussed for years, not just now, years that we
have fraud in the government, that we have overpayments in
the government that we don't take, we have no fiscal

(10:19):
responsibility in the government. We have said that for the
last twenty five years, easily, We've discussed about kicking the
can down the road and made some changes to social
Security and Medicare. For twenty years, I've heard that social
Security is going to run out. Bill Clinton started with
trying to change it. The Republicans were against it. George
Busch then came back with the same plan that Clinton wanted,

(10:42):
and then the Democrats were against it. Kicked the can
down the can in order to get to this point.
What we're doing right now, what Trump is doing right
now is making the changes that were inevitable for somebody
in the near future. You might not light the way
he's doing it, but understand this. The people that are

(11:07):
in their fifties and sixties and seventies and eighties, social
Security is there. It's secure because the people behind us
are paying us. But the people you ask in the forties, thirties,
and twenties, they don't believe social Security is going to
be there. So is it fair for them to continue
to pay into Social Security, which is really just paying

(11:28):
us that are getting Social Security, and then they don't
have anything. What are they going to do? Then? I
applaud Trump's administration in trying to do what has been
supposed to be done for the last twenty years, and
nobody's gotten together and doing it. When Democrats want to

(11:48):
do it, Republicans say no. When Republicans want to do it,
Democrats say no. But at the end of the day,
what the control he has. Now he has to move
fast and get things done fast, because you know, if
that we don't get it done now. And we started
doing a lot of this stuff next year and this
started happening. Then the mid turns were blown. This gives

(12:08):
it an opportunity for at least a year year and
a half to come out on top and work. Now
that doesn't mean I want to see the market go
down totally, but the market's also adjusting. Not this this
was the cause. This was the effect. This is the
effect of what we've been You've heard me talk about
the market being weak, Okay, that it was appreciated too much,

(12:31):
that it didn't have the earnings, that the earnings ratio
was a twenty three, twenty four percent, it's supposed to
be in sixteen seventeen, which under fIF five thousand. That's
where we're going to be. I'm not saying the market's
going to be cheap there, but it's going to be
in equal grounds of where it should be in the past.
And this is what the corrections look like. I get it.

(12:54):
Everyone's going to tell you, look at you for one
K and you lost money. You did if you had
a million dollars, If I lost pretty close to maybe
eighty hundred thousand or maybe a little more. Okay, that
doesn't mean you lost unless you're in stock set never
come back. But if you're in indexses and you keep

(13:15):
putting money in as you're supposed to do in your
for in one case, you're now buying cheaper than you're
were for the last year and a half, and that way,
when it does come back, you will go ahead and
get that back. So going back to this whole scenario,
what we're trying to do is get even footing, so
we're no longer taking advantage of If we are no

(13:36):
longer taking advantage of and giving everyone hundreds of billions
of dollars and access to them, not to us. That's
gonna help us. The other thing that people don't look
at is for four years, for three years under Biden,
we tried to get inflation down. Yes, the original part

(13:56):
came down. I know we were crazy after the pandemic,
but we got down. We couldn't get much lower than
two point seven to three three and a half percent,
just got sticky. Fed made a mistake, had said transitory,
the Fed made a mistake in raising rates and kind
of right before the election. Don't tell me that wasn't political.

(14:17):
I mean not raising rates, lowing rates, lowing rates. They
lowered rates. We kept saying they weren't going to lower rates.
Everyone kept thinking they were going to lower rates. We
kept saying they weren't going to lower rates. When they
eventually lowered rates, the bond market told you mistake, and
the interest rates went up, mortgages went up, ten year
bond got close to five percent. Now with what's going

(14:40):
on now, we had the ten year bond finally back
on the four percent, which means mortgage rates are gonna
come down, but more rigidestly, no one wants to talk
about it. Oil is dropped to sixty one dollars a battle.
It was up like about eighties for average for the longest,
seventy nine to eighty. If we have lower oil prices

(15:00):
and we are supplying our own oil, what are we
gonna do. We are gonna see energy prices down, which
means inflation could come down. We said forever that energy
was one of the highest highest causes of inflation. We
always knew that. But Biden didn't do anything to bring

(15:20):
oil prices down. He didn't want to drill her on oil.
He didn't want to have a surplus of it. Whoever
was running the country at that time, that's what was
going on at that time. We said, do not lower
interest rates. They lowered interest rates, inflation didn't stop. Well,

(15:42):
now we're in a position other than the fact that
he's like, well, terrorists could be inflationary, but you know,
we're worried about growth and everything else. Lower the interest rates.
If it becomes inflationary, raise the interest rates. It's that simple.
That's simple. Okay, you go up and you go down.

(16:07):
We have corrections in the market. All these people on
social media that how do you like to lose the money?
How do you like this? Thank you Trump for ruining
my retirement for OW and K We're down ten percent.
I didn't see these people say anything when we were
down twenty three percent and more in the NASDAC June

(16:27):
twenty twenty two. No no one said anything. We said bye,
and boy was it a great buy because a lot
of those stocks rip road right after that. Obviously na
Vidio was one of the main ones, but they all
took off and did a good job going higher and
splitting and all that stuff. So we are trying to

(16:49):
fix america debt problem. For the last fifteen years that
I've done this radio show, I've talked about the debt
problem being out of hand and if we don't get
our hands around it, it's just gonna keep exploding, exploding, exploding,
to the point when interest rates go higher, we will
have trouble paying for it. So we must applaud the

(17:10):
administration to trying to do something about it. They have
to stop spending. The budget needs to come down. We
need to do that. Is there going to be pain? Yes,
you have now put pain in the people that quote
they say are the rich people because they are losing
money in the markets. They are losing that worth. Will
it be painful for some of the other people. Yes,
what will the media focus on. They'll be focusing on

(17:33):
that one or two people that can't get the meal
from the government, or we'll have to get us someplace else.
There is gonna be some problems. I'm not gonna say no,
but we got to turn it around. We gotta get money.
Imagine once we save this money, We'll imagine once we
realize where all this money is going, what we can

(17:55):
do to help the people that need what we need.
You can actually put money into government programs that actually
are going to help the people directly. But we cannot
do that until we get our hands around our debt situation,
our spending situation, our social security situation, our medicare situation,

(18:20):
all once. And they're taking it on. And change is tough.
People can't handle change. Most people. Most people cannot right, left,
don't matter. They can't handle change. Successful people can handle change.
Successful people know that when you make a change, you're
going to have a lot of naysayers. But somehow, someway,

(18:40):
you got to have that vision to get through. Do
you remember before Trump got in, do you remember what
they were saying the same stuff they're saying now, we're
going into a recession, and he could with his ideas
and his economic policies, we can be in a depression.
I remember that, like was yesterday, and the markets went
up and up and up. Now they went up for

(19:03):
different reasons than when Democrats were and they went up
because he was lower in regulation, he was cutting taxes.
Then the Democrats come in, they kept the taxes where
they where they were. They didn't change that. Right now,
we need to make it permanent. But they spend money,
they hire, They make the government bigger, they show more

(19:24):
more lower unemployment by hiring in the government. And then
what do they do they spend They give away money
to stimulate the economy. That is the wrong way to
grow the economy. Creating jobs is the right way. Creating
high paying jobs is the right way. That's what we need. Now.
Did they do everything bad? No, I don't care what

(19:46):
Trump says. I believe doing the chip that and bringing
back our semiconductors and all the chips and getting Taiwan
Semi over here, and you see what's exploding Chandler and
above with all the chip companies billions and billions of dollars.
I think that was a good deal. That was protection

(20:07):
for us. That's the start of it. I think that's
a great thing. I think there's gonna be other stuff too. Now,
obviously I would expand it a little bit more. I
would like kind of work with Mexico a little bit.
You know, I have no problems letting Mexico get richer,
and if it helps us and it helps them, then great.

(20:27):
But we work out a different deal than we had
because what's happened is China has implemented as gone ahead
and infiltrated Mexico with all their chieaved products and then
sending them up to us. So when not Mexico isn't benefiting,
China is benefiting, and we got to stop supporting China

(20:48):
being the economy they are, they are the huge, They
export more than any country in the world. If we're
not buying from them, guess what, it ain't working for
them either. We all talk talk about the pain we're
gonna feel. Do you don't think that people around the
world are gonna feel pained? Listen, you know they talk about, well,

(21:08):
they're gonna make their own deals. Why don't you ask
the United Kingdom on how they feel about doing their
Brexit and kind of going on their own and trying
to make deals individual deals. They're not big enough. They're
not number one. Until you're number one, you do not
have the power to do what that we want to do.

(21:29):
We don't want people making deals against us. But you
know what, we could survive that because they still can't
get everything they want. Europe still needs oil and gas,
they still need goods. You're trying to tell me that
the world still doesn't want levice and the stuff like that.
The difference is we're gonna have to learn to make

(21:50):
them here. They're gonna be a little bit more expensive. Okay,
But if you don't want levi Ice, they'll come out
with another pair of jeans. They'll come out with something else.
I get it. We don't want to spend all that money.
But if you think that these corporations don't have wiggle room,
you're crazy. They're not living off one or two percent margins.

(22:12):
They're not restaurant business. Okay, will you hardly make anything?
They've got margin? What do you think they can put
things on sale for fifty percent and still make a
ton of money. They'll figure it out and they get
rid of the things, their inventories will get better. I mean,
this is the greatest thing about online. Maybe you can't
get things in a week. Maybe they'll take three weeks

(22:33):
to get something because they have to make it for
you then, and you'll get things prepared, like going to
a restaurant and instead of getting that frozen burger that's
been sitting there all day, they actually make a fresh
burger for you and give it to you. These are
the things that are gonna happen. The markets are going
to find the bottom at some time. And if I
had to guess, it's gonna be next week, and if

(22:54):
I had to guess, things are gonna happen and things
are gonna start going higher, we have gone ahead. And
a lot of the hedges we had on the mitigation
we started selling out and and and just going to
cash on Friday with those they were helping us since
the market came down. Now we're sitting there and we're
gonna look for opportunities to go the other way. We're
gonna get rid of things that aren't really like. I

(23:15):
don't think we'll come back immediately, maybe it's two or
three years or something. I want things that are gonna
bounce back quickly. And like I said before, there's good
quality companies that you use every day. Every day we
turned on the computer, there's a Microsoft every day you
go on your phone and someboce else it's a Google
or Binger something. Every day. You're you're you're, you're doing

(23:37):
something that needs to be there. Now there's consumer staples,
they'll be okay, you can go to McDonald's. But you know,
as soon as the markets start turning out of McDonald's
and into the tech, we'll be back. We have a
lot to talk about. We have a lot of different
opinions and viewpoints. I hope you understand things get bad
for a while and then they get good and look

(23:57):
at the positives. Lower interest rates, lower energy prices. That's
the start of good things to happen. We'll be right back.
Thank you for listening The Money Matter Show. Welcome back everybody.
Good morning to everybody, and we're going to talk a
lot about what's going on in this market. I know
you're a little nervous. I know a lot of people
are like, what's happening? And you know what, there's good

(24:17):
reason to be nervous. And I'm not talking about just
because the market's gone down. We've gone through that before.
But if you listen to anything, anything, any pundit, any economists,
and the Tonia nothing but bad stuff. And I'm telling
you that's impossible. Everybody can't be right one way or

(24:38):
the other. I've seen it way too many times.

Speaker 2 (24:40):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (24:41):
Is it confusing? Yes? Is it the message not great? Yes?
Was it like kind of weird with reciprocal and trade, Yes?
Get through all that. It's all we were doing. All
he's trying to do. As Pelosi said in the late
nineties with her charts and stuff on National TV, that

(25:03):
thing keeps circulating. I don't know if you've seen that yet.
She was talking about how we cannot allow the trade
and balance to keep doing. People are taking advantage of
America and we can't allow that, and we have to
put tarists on people. We cannot allow China to keep
growing the way they're growing on our backs. Sure, okay,
and it comes to fruition. But now that it's there
and someone's doing something about it, it's all upset. But

(25:27):
I do believe we have to thank the people that
are twenty and thirty years old and forty need to think,
and we'll thank this Trump administration that they had enough
guts to do something about the debt before it was
too late, because somebody down the road was going to
get hit with this.

Speaker 2 (25:45):
Somebody has to do something. I had a client in
last week and that was exactly what he said. He said,
somebody had to do something. We're going broke, and he's
absolutely spot on. And my friends and my family all
concerned about, well, how that going this week? How are
you doing a lot of pressure, getting a lot of calls,
a lot of nervous s. Fee. I got to tell

(26:05):
you what God is my witness. I have had one
call from a client who was concerned, and understandably they're
newly retired, understand that they would be concerned. Every other
call I had this week was to buy. Every other
call was to buy or is it time to buy?
All right? What should we buy? I was very very

(26:28):
impressed with that, because that's what you should be doing, Dane,
when the market's down seventeen and as.

Speaker 1 (26:33):
We're doing the clients when was high, Dave, We've talked
for a long time that is overvalued. I talked about
how the market's weak. If anything hits it, it's going
to get hit pretty hard. We mitigated risk, but now
times to come like a time. The first step when
you mitigate risk and the market gets hit like this, finally,
what do you do?

Speaker 2 (26:52):
Take off?

Speaker 1 (26:53):
Take off your mitigation of risk. Take off. Now you
have more cash and you sit with the cash. Now
we sit and we wait, and we start looking for opportunity.
We get out of things that we don't think are
going to move right away and go into quality things
that we think can move really quickly. That's how you
play this. This is how you invest. This is how
you make money over a long period of time. If
you did not or did not know how, or didn't

(27:15):
understand how to mitigate risk, you got to call us.
You got to come see us, bring us your portfolio.
We'll tell you how what we did and how we
would have done it. By the way, that doesn't mean
you don't lose money. Of course, you lose money because
you're always investigates. The markets over time go higher. What
it means is you don't lose as much and you're
looking for preparation to be a buyer when it's down here,

(27:37):
as opposed to panicking and selling at the bottom.

Speaker 2 (27:40):
Right. We saw that in twenty twenty with the pandemic
and the thirty five forty percent drop there that reversed
itself by the end of the year. We saw that
in real estate. You know, wait, with the banking meltdown,
real estate prices dropped twenty thirty forty percent in some cases.
How would you like to have owned those houses today
at those prices? If you understand what I think, Dan,

(28:03):
I think I heard you saying your monologue that when
you look at your statement, look at the valuation of
your account, it is the liquidation value. If you're not liquidating,
it's not terribly relevant. It's the liquidation value. So times
like this are exciting because you're getting an opportunity to
buy things at prices you haven't seen in years.

Speaker 1 (28:23):
And that's why we do the financial plan YEP, to
set up your rich tolerance on what you need if
you need an income, your portfolio set up for the
next three to five years of being able to get
the income you need on a monthly basis.

Speaker 3 (28:36):
Yeah, we watch the markets go down ten percent in
April like right now. They are the person that client
that is getting the income through our model that we did.
It's not affecting them because that money that they need
for this month and next month, and the next six
months after that is in a money market ready to go,
so it's not even participating in this downfall. And the
next year's also. The next year, the next twelve months

(28:56):
in twenty twenty six is in a bond getting ready
to mature, and I own to a money market to
pay it. That's what we do with the people that
we need income for, and that's why we do it.

Speaker 1 (29:05):
A strategic income model exactly. And it's a lot of work,
but it's worth it. It's understanding how it's done. I'm
not gonna say anything's ever perfected, because it's not. But
what it does is gets your mind off of it
and thinks, hey, I need money for the next three,
four or five years. I know I'm getting it. Even
if it went down fifty percent on the growth side,
you have three, four or five years more for it

(29:27):
to come back, probably seven years because we have enough
income coming off it to pay for more extra years
after that. That is why we do it. I developed
it in two thousand and four, after two thousand and
one for people that need to use their portfolio as
a pension. However, you can't take out more than five
or six percent. It start taking out eight ten percent,

(29:48):
you're going to ruin that and get more and more volatility.

Speaker 3 (29:52):
Yeah, And the reason for that is because you can't
really generate ten percent from interest from bonds and dividends
and all that stuff. So you're gonna have volatile You're
gonna have to be participating in the market. But that
adds volatility, that adds riskiness where you're not gonna be
able to really have that strategy can come out of
work the way it's intended to, but.

Speaker 2 (30:08):
You always have five years before you would need to
sell an equity position to generate income. And there's no
market declining in history, with the exception of maybe one
h two. It didn't come all the way back in five.

Speaker 1 (30:18):
Years, you know. And it's interesting too. I remember all
the people that hated Biden and every time the markets
went down, they didn't want to buy it. Oh, he's
ruining the world, he's runing this he's ruined democracy. Right,
And I'm like, guice to get your hatred for Biden
and whatever. It doesn't matter. We live in a world
of politics and non truths. What we need to do

(30:40):
is navigate and sift through this and realize what we
need to do to make you money now with the
markets are doing what they're doing. Now you have all
the Trump paid us out there. I told you this
was gonna happen. This is not gonna pay. It can't
come back. His idea is stupid. There's no way this
is gonna work. He's the most screwed up man in
the world. I promise you we'll make a new high

(31:00):
sometime in the future. What we don't know is that
this idea is gonna work now. I'll be the first
one to tell you in six months to a year
whether it's a good economic plan or not. But I
refuse to go ahead and say it's not yet when
I know the intentions of its good. Can it work?

(31:24):
I don't know. I don't have I'm not in the
room with all these people trying to make the rooms.
Do I know what they're trying to do? Yes? Are
they trying to get higher paying jobs in America? Yes?
Will that cost more for the product? Yes? Will we
make more money? Yes? Are we trying to get inflation down, yes,
oils down. Are we trying to go ahead and protect
us yes? Are we trying to go ahead and get

(31:45):
us on solid ground so we can help out the
rest of the world. Yes, and for everyone that tells
you the pain we're gonna feel here. Don't you think
for one second that China, Vietnam, Europe, every place else
in the world isn't gonna feel the pain more because
guess what, we're number one, And when you're number one
economy in the world, we go ahead and allow people

(32:06):
to have whatever lifestyle that they have that they live in.

Speaker 2 (32:10):
Well, we've been taking advantage of for years and I
think you're saying that f is enough. When you look
at some of the numbers and some of the money
that people have gleaned off of us over the years,
it's just disgusting, shocking.

Speaker 1 (32:22):
Actually, what do they say, uh, trade deficit is with
Canada two hundred billion bills on a billion How big
is Canada? They are the fourth largest state if they
were part of the United States, state New York and
California all larger than Canada.

Speaker 2 (32:39):
Their economy.

Speaker 1 (32:40):
Yeah, the economy. If you took two hundred billion dollars
that Canada gets office and put into any one of
those states, how great would that state be?

Speaker 2 (32:48):
Amazing?

Speaker 1 (32:49):
Right? If they did the right things.

Speaker 2 (32:50):
And how's that fair?

Speaker 1 (32:50):
How's that fair, that it's fair. Now they go around
what is Canada? Do they tout what they are wonderful
free medical system, they are wonderful pench retirement pension system.
We'll helping them do that. We're helping them do things,
and we don't take care of ourselves.

Speaker 2 (33:07):
We're giving them two hundred billion dollars of our taxpayer
money right per year.

Speaker 1 (33:11):
Right, And I believe in America into and I can't
even say the word coming up with ideas to be
able to replace things that we might need. Okay, I mean, guys,
nobody ever thought we'd get rid of the typewriter win
in one electric right. Nobody thought that that that the
big the computers with the big screen would be nothing

(33:33):
but something that we needed. Now we got our phones.
Things change with technology.

Speaker 2 (33:39):
And try finding a typewriter in the office if you
need one.

Speaker 1 (33:43):
And where are we going to go from here? With technology? Right,
manufacturing will turn into something robots technology, you know, and
maybe cotton we can still go, call, we can still go.
Maybe maybe we can't get avocados enough because you know
they're going to be in delicacy because they maybe they
come from California. So maybe we have to eat something else,

(34:04):
whatever we can grow what our farm is. They always
complain they have enough, you know what I mean.

Speaker 4 (34:09):
Yeah, there's certainly gonna be some changes.

Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (34:11):
I mean, at the end of the day, you have, like,
for example, Nike, their average employee that they pay they
make like eight nine thousand dollars a year. Try to
pay someone nine thousand dollars year to make shoes in
the US. That's not gonna happen, right, So there is
a significant idea of saying, we don't need to bring
all the jobs back to us. There are certain jobs
that we want back, but we don't need to have

(34:32):
all these jobs come back because there's plenty of people
in the world that are okay getting paid.

Speaker 1 (34:37):
Less and they don't have to. When Vietnam says, hey,
we will, we will have a trade balance with you,
it's real simple. What we're saying is, if you're going
to make two hundred billion dollars off of it, is
one one make a hundred billion split the difference.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (34:52):
I think after this break we should talk a little
bit more about the free trade and how tariff really
can on both sides hurt that exact thing for the trade.
Who can tariffs on both sides, can have eay can.

Speaker 1 (35:03):
No one's saying it's not gonna hurt us. No one's
saying siety, but right, No one're talking about now, what's
going to hurt everyone else?

Speaker 2 (35:08):
Right?

Speaker 1 (35:08):
Everybody else? France gets on there, the Ontario Premium Prime
Minister gets on there. All these people get on there
telling us, Oh, America, you're gonna get killed. We're gonna
hurt American people. Hey, wake up, buddy, it's well, it's
gonna be everybody. And when everybody gets hurt, you find
a solution of what you need to do. We'll be
right back. We appreciate your listening. It is the Money

(35:29):
Batter Show, and we are sorry that we're losing right now,
but we will get it back.

Speaker 4 (35:34):
Welcome back to the Moneymatter Show. My name is Todd Glick.
I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Dean Greenberg, and David Sherwood. Yeah,
what a ballas a week we had in the markets.
Obviously it all stemmed after Wednesdays after the bell closed,
where we had Trump announce in the Rose Garden the
Trump reciprocal tariffs sometimes just not reciprocal fifty. There's a
whole formula that came into it. But at the end

(35:55):
of the day, yes, we understand that we don't have
a lot of manufacturing jobs in the United slate date
right now, I mean roughly, I think it's below fifteen
percent approximately. Most of our jobs are services. When you
start to look at all the other countries, you start
to realize they are majority manufacturing jobs. That's why they
would get hit a lot harder than the United States
because there's only certain things that a services job, like

(36:17):
a lawyer or financial doctor. Only certain things are going
to impact to that what we're talking as well with
this technology, and that's what I think Trump's wild card
is in all this tariff is saying, in five years,
if we have AI and all these technolog technological revolutions
that come with it, you want that to be centered
in the United States. So there's going to be some
short term pain before that. AI really helps bring down

(36:39):
the cost of all the things that we're creating here
in the United States now. But with that technology, it
does bring down the cost of making something. So that's
his wild card. But I do think it's going to
take some time. We're going to have some short term
pain in the interim because You don't just turn on
a factory overnight, right exactly.

Speaker 2 (36:57):
Excuse me. The ten percent in two days is very
unnerve being we understand that is very We don't like it.
It doesn't feel good here, it doesn't feel good the portfolio.
But again reminder Dean mentioned in his monologue, it's the
liquidation value you're looking at. If you're not taking income
from your portfolio and are not going to need the
money for some other need. It's just the liquidation value.

(37:20):
And probably the best advice I could give you right now,
based upon a couple of conversations I had this week,
is turn off the TV.

Speaker 4 (37:27):
Yeah. I mean we look at it all the time.
The person that checks their account more frequently frequently is
a worse investor than someone that doesn't on average, So
being able to just every now and then check your account,
that's obviously understandable, but something that someone who's checking every
single day, especially when they see it on the news,
that they think they have to check their account. You
don't have to check your account just because you see

(37:49):
the market sold off. If anything, you should have maybe
up your contributions. That's the only reason you should be
checking your account.

Speaker 3 (37:55):
Or if you have cash on the side, and you've
had it there, so you got to put it.

Speaker 2 (37:58):
To work, right.

Speaker 4 (37:59):
But I mean, I'm telling some like my parents, would
be a good day to sell some of your bonds
and buy some equities. And especially when they're in their forties,
got plenty of time to retirement, fifteen plus year time horizon,
It's okay to get a little aggressive here. Change some
of those bond portfolios out to the equity side, and
you're gonna get rewarded for it.

Speaker 2 (38:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (38:16):
I mean, that's what we do with two a lot
of the time. Is what we always say is trying
and take the emotion out of it for our clients.
Is because it's an emotional thing, especially when you watch
the markets go down ten percent in two days, six
percent alone on Friday, And if you're doing it on
your own and you're looking at your account constantly in
the last forty eight hours, is because you're nervous, you're scared.
You're gonna probably start selling just so you can calm

(38:37):
yourself down. But if you have an advisor, that you
try and do is take that emotional side out of it.
And we're buying during this because that's what you should
do is buy.

Speaker 1 (38:46):
Here's a perfect example. A good friend of mine that
lives back east. She just retired after forty some ideas
in the iOS, and when she retired, she talked to
me about her how she wanted to be, what she
wanted to do, even though she didn't have to lose
take much money out well. I told her go fifty
to fifty for that time because the market was over

(39:08):
six thousand, and I said, if the market comes down
on the fifty two hundred to five thousand on the
sp called me and we'll adjust it.

Speaker 2 (39:15):
What do you do?

Speaker 1 (39:16):
She called me Friday, all right, okay, and she said,
I remember saying something about this. What are we supposed
to do? I said, on Monday, we're going to see
what the hell the markets react up or down. We're
going to add at least five or ten percent, and
if we keep coming down, we are going to get
you to it's seventy thirty split until we go back

(39:37):
up again, and then you start selling back to your
fifty to fifty, right, And she says, that sounds so simple.
I said, yeah, because you were patient. You weren't upset
when the markets were going higher, and you weren't making
twenty percent. You were okay with it, and that's why
you're okay with it now coming down, because you realize
you're only losing half of what's going on, but now

(39:58):
you want to be able to make the money going
the other way. And that's how it works.

Speaker 2 (40:01):
I think the Trump tariffs are obviously the primary thing
driving the market lower, but don't forget we came into
this with the already some market weakness of March was
a down month based upon this belief that AI spending
may have gotten overdone. And then Dean, the third thing
you and I talked about this on Friday were those
of us who have been in the business for a while.

(40:22):
Remember nineteen eighty seven, and remember on Thursday was a
big down day, Friday was a big down day, and
Monday was a collapse. They almost couldn't get the market
open that year. By the way, we did finish in
positive territory, right, but we remember that. So you're sitting
here going, wait, a second, big down Thursday, big down Friday.
I've seen this before.

Speaker 3 (40:41):
Well, you're saying that it ended the year positive in
nineteen eighty seven. That happened in October too, so you
only had two and a half months come back. Yep,
this is April. First April, first week of April, had
a lot of time to come back in this year.

Speaker 2 (40:51):
This market dropped seventeen and a half percent in six weeks's.

Speaker 1 (40:56):
But it's dropped a lot in two days. No act scary.

Speaker 2 (40:59):
I get that TOEAH in two days. But when we
get when we do get the bounced Dean, I think
you and I talked about this Friday. It could be
strong well.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
And that's why you don't know when it's gonna come.
And it does happen if you and if you're not
taking money out, and you're in a allocated portfolio of
indexes and you got cash, all you think you should
be looking at is adding to your your model. Sure,
not going ahead and panicking.

Speaker 2 (41:24):
Remember over the last thirty years, the last thirty years,
which would include the crash of O one, it would
include the crash of eight. The S and P five
hundred is averaged nine point three three percent. If you
simply stayed on course for the last thirty years, you
wouldn't have had to worry about when to get back in,
and you would have made a lot of money.

Speaker 4 (41:45):
I think something else to note is. In March, we
had quite a significant divergence between the equal weighted S
ANDP how much it was dropping versus the NASDAK. Tech
heavy stocks got killed in March, risk assets got killed,
so the NASDAK was quite a bit off its all
time high, but the equator was hanging in there. That
was not the case this week. Everything across the board
sold off. Equador was down nine point two, the S

(42:07):
and P was down nine point six, so again not
much of the divergence there, but the NASDAK only down
nine point nine. With the exact SMP, you would have
maybe expected an Aszec even to be down more than that.
I think it's because of the fact tech has already
had such a bad month in March. Because of that,
AI spending might be too soon, too quick. But realistically,
I think a lot of this this week had to

(42:27):
do with the tariffs. I mean that was I mean,
when you see the equal weighted losing that much, it
was the PROD absolutely.

Speaker 2 (42:34):
What it was absolutely the flame that he united the
fire the tariffs, absolutely, But I think it then, I
think it's gone one step further. I think investors are
now believing, oh, this is the new normal. When in fact,
you and I both know it was the first salvel Trump.
Trump tends to walk in with a big stick and
hit you over the head with it, and then then
you sit down and you become friends.

Speaker 4 (42:55):
But I did see this morning on a headline that
when China says that they're a retaliatory, they're going to
do the same thirty six whatever percent tariff, Trump says, well,
I'm never changing my tariff. So you know, him saying
things like that is not something the market wants to hear, because,
like you said, they do expect some type of.

Speaker 2 (43:11):
And a lot of manufacturing has been moved from trying
to to Vietnam, and Vietnam got hit with the biggest
tariffs for.

Speaker 4 (43:17):
I mean, could you imagine being in a company like
Nike who changes your manufacturer from trying to Taiwan because
of the first trade war in Trump's first administration. Now
you're kind of getting punished from Nike.

Speaker 1 (43:27):
Tough fi old ahead of them. I'm trying to figure
it out, right, But you know, there's a lot you
got to look at this and go okay, yeah, yeah,
you don't hear you don't hear them saying, oh they
you know, all those billionaire friends are going to make
money from the market because they're all they're all losing
money now, right. You know, this whole thing with tax
banks we keep talking about for billionaires. Every time I

(43:49):
ask people how many billionaires you think they are, they
go like, I don't know, ten twenty thousand billion ares.
When they find out there it's like eight hundred and thirty,
the like dumbfounded. Yeah, I mean, the things that come
out of people's mouths don't make sense, you know. And
but that's why I'm glad you have to have some
strong people in their day. You know, We've had ups

(44:10):
and downs with thinking about whether or not he said,
if you don't have a strong person in there, you're
gonna get beaten up and and just tossed out.

Speaker 2 (44:17):
There's very few people that could handle the types of
stuff that is throwing at Trump and have been thrown
at Trump since he was Trump one point oh, now
Trump point two point oh. The stuff that's thrown at him,
it just comes like water off of a duck. And
there are not many people that have that kind of
a personality that can handle that. It's interesting because you know,
I always obsess about the first one hundred days of

(44:39):
a president. I wonder how the first hundred days are
gonna be remembered for Trump.

Speaker 1 (44:43):
Well, they're gonna.

Speaker 3 (44:43):
Remember it, Yeah, definitely active, remember chaotic.

Speaker 1 (44:48):
They're gonna say active changing. Doesn't know what's going on,
No one knows. That's good. I mean, how much person
can't be president.

Speaker 3 (44:55):
You've talked about it before. It's like it's all this change,
and he's changing everything, and you're saying but not necessar
really a bad thing. But you have to let it
play out. You don't know what's gonna happen. It's all automatic.
If you don't like Trump, it's automatically bad. But you
don't know that yet. But you also don't know if
it's gonna be good. If you automatally like Trump, it's
automatically good. You don't know that yet. We have to
let it play out a few months. This might be
good for our economy and.

Speaker 2 (45:15):
It if you don't.

Speaker 1 (45:18):
I just I just wish we as people would demand
our politicians to get together and make a plan. They
all knew there's a problem. They all knew that there
was a fraud in medicare.

Speaker 3 (45:30):
Well, we're in a point. Politics were like Schumer agreed
with the Republicans to do the spending or whatever happened
a few weeks ago, and he got killed on the
other side, like everybody's just just reaming him about, Oh,
you're just you gave up, you gave up, you're weak,
you're a week leader. We need to get you out. Democrats,
democratic politicians, democratic followers, they all just hated Schumer because

(45:51):
he agreed with the Republicans. We're at a point now
where it's hard to agree. The politicians don't agree with things.

Speaker 1 (45:56):
The bottom line is, when we get back on the
other side of the show, we're going to talk about
some areas that we think you can look at it.
What do you do when the markets are going down
as an investor if you're not having someone do it
for you. But I'm going to tell you there is
one thing you don't do, and that's sell out, right.
I don't care the more pain you feel, the more
you step up to the plate, because somewhere along this line,

(46:18):
this is just about terrists. What happens if all of
a sudden there's a deal, where's it go And if
it's not a deal, how much further does it go down?
And if it does go down twenty thirty percent? Does
it stay down there? No, If you're in indexes, you're
in ats. If you're in good quality stuff, guess what
happens when you add to it, it comes back. You
should have been mitigating risk before.

Speaker 2 (46:38):
And forty years I've never seen someone get in below
where they got out because in order to get back
in you need to be more comfortable. By then, the
market's much much higher. So if you're getting out, just
tell yourself you're getting out forever.

Speaker 1 (46:52):
Well, here's the other What about the person that I
got out two years ago? Right? They got two years ago.
They didn't want to be in the market. They didn't
like this, didn't like that. Right, and now the markets
sound and they go good. I'm waiting for this. This
feels good. I don't have to wait about it.

Speaker 2 (47:04):
Key Playton.

Speaker 1 (47:05):
It's probably twenty percent higher than when they when they
said it before. Absolutely okay, So the getting in higher
than they would have been that they stuck with it.
You don't get all out and you don't have to
get all in. It's talk about mitigating risk. We'll be
right back. It's a Money Matter show. Thanks so much
for listening.

Speaker 3 (47:22):
Welcome back to the second hour of the Money Matter Show.
I'm Dylan Greenberg here with Dean Greenberg, Todd Glicks, the
Bashing Board, Sini, and Dave Sherwood, and we got a
lot to talk about. We know what happened last week
with the tariff implementation. Didn't like the Mark, the Marcus
didn't like it. The Dow was down seven point nine
percent for the week. The S and P five hundred
was down nine point one, the NASDAK was down ten,
the Rustle two thousand was down nine point six and

(47:43):
the equal weighted SMP was down eight point five percent.
So it was a massacre and then mostly happened on
Thursday and Friday after Trump put his terrorists on the
countries on Wednesday.

Speaker 4 (47:54):
When you look at the top seven, the mag seven, uh,
those companies got hit hard. We know they had a
tough March, but over the last two days added to
that pressure. I believe they're close to almost twenty five
percent off their highs as a group. Yeah, yeah, definitely
more than twenty, but they're probably getting close to twenty.

Speaker 1 (48:09):
They're getting there.

Speaker 3 (48:10):
And I mean we talked about that for the last
year eighteen months, is that the market was going up
but it was primarily driven by those Max sevens, So
the market wasn't always just completely stable. It was pretty
fragile in the sense that, yeah, seven companies, a lot
of the time two or three companies driving the market
higher in the SMP and all that. That's why the
equal way it was lagging it for a.

Speaker 1 (48:29):
Lot of the time.

Speaker 3 (48:30):
So it was always we were talking about how something
like this could happen. Obviously very aggressive.

Speaker 4 (48:37):
I also think when you look at these Max seven stocks,
the story that underpinned the rally originally, none of that
has changed. I mean, we still have AI, we still
have the future that's going to be absolutely unexpected for
any side. I mean, what we saw with the technology revolution,
it was originally a big run up and then you

(48:58):
have that huge crash. What happened through the two thousands,
the richest companies became technology companies. So that is not
going to change. Getting these companies at discounts honestly, could
be the best opportunity over the next decade, maybe the
best opportunity in the century, because again, once that AI
revolution really starts taking off and these companies actually start
making money, not just spending on it, but actually start

(49:20):
making money. The revenue is going to be insane on
these things. Then the pes we're not even gonna be
talking about it being expensive in the thirties. I mean,
that's going to be normal because the type of growth
rate these companies can warrant with that type of technology
is going to be insane. So just because you see
these companies get absolutely killed, these were the quality companies

(49:41):
that came back first. So I really like almost all
these names you can look at and they have great
growth stories.

Speaker 2 (49:48):
They do they do, and I think that there are
different people listening to different hours. So if we're repeating
some of this, it's on purpose so that everyone can
take part in it. Markets seen and a half percent
off of is high. We came into this year thinking
there was gonna be a bit of a correction. We
thought the market was probably ten percent overvalued. Anyway. The

(50:10):
market was being weighed down by concerns about AI spending
revenue not generated yet versus the spending. We're still building
it out, so there was some concern about that already.
Even before Trump dropped the bomb on the tariffs, Goldman's
Axe came out and cut the year end price target
for the S and P five hundred to fifty seven hundred.

(50:32):
That's their target.

Speaker 5 (50:33):
I just saw in the news that RBC cut it
to fifty five hundred.

Speaker 2 (50:38):
Cut it hundred, and then when it goes to fifty
eight hundred, well, looking up, it's you know, they're.

Speaker 1 (50:43):
Gonna change it again.

Speaker 3 (50:44):
Yeah, exactly, exactly.

Speaker 2 (50:45):
A worst week's worst day since the pandemic on Thursday.
Friday was even worse. Obviously the worst week since the pandemic.
You don't see that kind of a decline back to
back days down like that very often. I think FED
Chief Powell uh said something pretty brilliant today, and and

(51:07):
he tries to be very measured in what he says,
but he said, step back and let things clarify. That's
a great advice. We are in a period right now
where Trump is thrown out those initial salvos, and now
already Vietnam has come back and said, you know, we'll
cut the tariffs to zero, but if you want to
work with us, yeah, well, really is your tariffs were

(51:28):
amongst the highest in the world. You're gonna cut them
to zero?

Speaker 4 (51:31):
Yeah, But I heard someone on CNBC say the exact
opposite about Vietnam, how they don't actually have like eighty
percent tariffs or whatever that chart said. She said that
chart was not accurate, and so that's I think concern
is is just because like charts, Trump's chart isn't gospel,
just because no, it's not gospel.

Speaker 5 (51:50):
But I think that regardless, it's bringing Vietnam to the
table to negotiate, and I think that's the biggest thing.

Speaker 4 (51:56):
That's thirty different countries, right, But.

Speaker 2 (51:58):
Isn't that what he's doing. Isn't that what he's doing,
throwing out the salvos and now.

Speaker 4 (52:02):
Waiting for them, waiting for them to comebacks, and.

Speaker 2 (52:04):
China comes back and says thirty four percent tariff with
us too.

Speaker 3 (52:07):
Well, it's the whole thing too. You say that the
chart is in gospel, But what makes what she was
saying on CNBC correct? Is it somewhere in the middle?

Speaker 1 (52:14):
Is she correct?

Speaker 3 (52:14):
Is he correct? Is what is going on in regardless
of what we want clarification? And that's exactly what Pals saying,
which is a good thing because.

Speaker 4 (52:22):
If you go one step further, Goldman Sachs says, the
GDP before all this happened, was going to be zero
point two percent growth. The Fed Atlanta said we're going
to have a negative three point seven percent growth in
the first quarter for GDP. So you have one side
saying we're gonna have absolutely terrible, one side saying it's
not really going to impact us.

Speaker 2 (52:38):
Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see the GDP
report when it does come out. I can't it'll be
very interesting. Generally, not a market mover, it might be
you could make the argument that we are in a
recession right now if the Q one GDP is a
negative number. I'm pretty sure Q two is going to
be a negative number, So we're in a recession technically right.

Speaker 4 (52:59):
Now if quarter one's negative. Yeah, yeah, which it would
be pretty crazy coming off of what quarter four's growth
rate was.

Speaker 2 (53:06):
It's amazing, and it was rationing down, rationing down, rationing down.

Speaker 4 (53:10):
But I think that might be one of the catalysts
to help bring the market back up, because if it
doesn't come in as low as everyone's expecting and they
realize it hasn't been as bad, you're going to have
to have some type of market valuation go higher.

Speaker 2 (53:23):
I think the primary thing that's going to bring the
market higher is just valuations become compelling, and valuations right
now are very attractive. They'd become compelling to the point.

Speaker 4 (53:32):
And we're heading into earning season.

Speaker 2 (53:34):
Yeah, where you can't as a money manager say no,
I'm not going to buy this. I was looking at
the forward pe on Nvidia is twenty. It's like a
utility stock. Are you kidding me? Is their growth done?
Is AI done? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (53:49):
We're looking at a company like Uber who had like
fifteen on their Ford PE. I mean there's a lot
of companies that are tech growth type of companies, betas
with probably at least two, and you're buying, like you said,
utility type of pees.

Speaker 2 (54:01):
So and Dell Computer said that we're just about to
enter a recycle. I think October's to drop dead date
for Windows ten, then they go to Windows eleven. It's
as reasonable to think there might be some laptop upgrades
on that. And Dell's PE is under ten single digit.

Speaker 4 (54:18):
But not all safe haven assets got a bit. I mean,
we know the ten year US interstry absolutely plunged. That's
because all the money was going into it. But gold
actually had a down week two.

Speaker 2 (54:28):
It was really interesting in that space. Todd, you bring
it up. Oil was down seven bucks on the week,
so sixty two seventy. I don't know the last time
it was sixty two seventy. Spend years. It's going to
be cheap at the gas pump for this should be
a nice noticeable drop of the Gold down sixty eight dollars.
Gold never goes down, right, We talked about it last week.

(54:49):
Just buy gold and forget about it, right, Gold down
sixty eight dollars.

Speaker 4 (54:52):
Yeah, I was telling I was talking to a client
and I was saying, yeah, I mean, gold's come down
quite a bit. It's at thirty to fifty. They're like, oh,
it's that high and really to make Yeah, well it
got up to thirty one to eighty, so what Yeah,
no one really. People don't realize how fast they went up.

Speaker 2 (55:07):
China was down eight percent last week, so even China
didn't escape the selling which was was was pervasive. There
was really nowhere to hide. I was looking at some
of the big dropsury bonds.

Speaker 4 (55:17):
I think that's the only place you could have hit
this point.

Speaker 2 (55:19):
Yeah, bond died well. I was looking at the bloodbath
on Thursday. Lulu Lemon down thirteen percent, Nike thirteen, Williams
Sonoma twenty percent, Ori twenty percent, Tesla fifteen percent, Target
eleven percent. There was nowhere to hide, no, I mean,
just just pervasive. The interesting part about this is on Friday,
Lulu Lemon, Williams, Sonoma, and Target all moved higher in

(55:41):
a big down day, over two thousand points on the Dow.

Speaker 5 (55:44):
I don't know the other two, but I think Lulu
Lemon the reason for that was just because of the
Vietnam coming to the table and willing to negotiate, just
the same way that Nike stock. I'm pretty sure that
went up four to five percent, right.

Speaker 2 (55:56):
Right, And you get other countries saying, okay, fine, let's
let's if we can work something out here. The US
is the number one consumer in the world. You want
to do business with the US.

Speaker 4 (56:06):
I also think eventually Trump, when they come to the
table with a company like Vietnam, with a country like Vietnam,
they're going to be like, yeah, you're not going to
fill those jobs with American people, so you have to
come up with a deal. I mean, Nike's not going
to move their factories to America, which seem not well,
it's just not. Then everything's going to get so much
more expensive than Nike. He wouldn't even be a bit right.

Speaker 5 (56:26):
Not if they're not making you know, paying nine ten
thousand dollars for something to make shoes for you.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
Well, I think, like I said in the first hour,
the market has become convinced that this is these tariffs
are the new normal, this is the way it's going
to be, which I don't think is necessarily true. I
think these were initial salvos and they were intentionally inflated,
so there's room to negotiate. The guy. He's not an idiot, yeah,
despite what.

Speaker 4 (56:49):
He's got an ego. That's that's the problem with it
that I have that I feel like he will if
a country gets in his ego side. He's just like, well,
I'm not doing it now. It's kind of how I
got the response off a this morning, that's on Friday morning.
That's kind of how it felt. Well, I'm never going
to change him a reality, you know.

Speaker 2 (57:06):
How he shoot off and but I had this couple
of miles a couple of weeks ago left Leanings people
and they're convinced that Trump is intentionally hurting the country,
that he wants to hurt the United States, which is
just ridiculous. What was there reason ridiculous things he's doing wrong?
So he's just completely the country, intentionally hurting the country.

Speaker 4 (57:26):
But Biden wasn't intentionally hurting the country.

Speaker 2 (57:29):
Why why is he intentionally hurting the country just because
of who he is? Okay?

Speaker 5 (57:34):
On the last segment, and you guys were talking about
moving to cash and why that's not a good idea.
We got a couple of grafts sent in through contact
of Vanguard, and I'm going to talk a little bit
about why moving to cash doesn't always pay off. This
statistic that I'm looking at shows that if you were
to move and move to cash just for three months,
there is now a seventy four percent probability that you

(57:54):
will underperform in a sixty forty portfolio with an underperformance
of at least four percent. Okay, okay, If you were
to move to cash for six months, you now have
a seventy one percent chance that you're going to lose,
that you're going to underperform the S and P five
hundred overall market by seven point four percent. If you're
scared on the sidelines for about a year, there's now
an eighty seven percent probability of you underperforming in a

(58:17):
sixty forty portfolio by at least thirteen percent.

Speaker 2 (58:20):
I might think my favorite chart over the years, or
my favorite statistic over the years is over the last
thirty years, the market's average ten percent. But if you
missed the ten best days days in thirty years, if
you missed the ten best days, I'm not sure you don't,
it drops by to five five percent, ten percent, five percent.

Speaker 1 (58:41):
Yeah, so this seve in best days.

Speaker 2 (58:43):
And I guarantee you if you're getting out now, you're
going to miss a blockbuster day coming to a theater
near you.

Speaker 3 (58:51):
Yeah, you always talk about it. You get out now,
it's because you're so scared that you want nothing to
do with the markets. It's going to take you a
long time to feel like you want something to do
with the markets.

Speaker 5 (58:59):
This next one kind of cool. It's a hYP It's
the chart of a hypothetical growth of one hundred thousand
dollars invested from December of nineteen ninety four to December
of twenty twenty four, So thirty years, right, if you
were invested.

Speaker 2 (59:09):
In Crashable one crash of eight right, two of the
biggest stress in market history.

Speaker 5 (59:14):
So again, one hundred thousand dollars put in in December
of nineteen ninety four. If you're invested all days, you're
now worth about two point two million dollars. Your one
hundred thousand dollars. If you were to yes, correct, if
you were to miss five of those best days, right,
your portfolio is suffering at thirty seven percent dropped compared
to if you were invested all days, you only have

(59:35):
one point four million dollars compared to that two point
two Okay, if you were to miss that ten best
days like you said earlier, Dave, now you only your
one hundred thousand dollars is actually only a million dollars.

Speaker 4 (59:46):
Right, If you missed.

Speaker 5 (59:47):
Thirty of your best days because you were sitting out
on the sideline for a year, just scared of what's
to come, your one hundred thousand dollars is only worth
three hundred and eighty one thousand dollars. Wow, it's impressive.

Speaker 2 (59:58):
And the truth is, of having on this for forty years,
the truth is when people get out, they don't get
back in now or they don't they I've never one
time seen people get back in lower. So if you're
sitting there stressing about getting out, understand you're you're getting out.

Speaker 5 (01:00:15):
For good, right, And if you're stressing and wanting to
get out because of geopolitical headlines. Here's another stat for you.
Geopolitical sell us are typically short lived. What do you
think that the average total return six months from the
events of the geopolitical headline? What is that average return?

Speaker 2 (01:00:32):
Ten?

Speaker 1 (01:00:32):
Five?

Speaker 2 (01:00:33):
Okay?

Speaker 1 (01:00:33):
Okay?

Speaker 4 (01:00:34):
Average one year?

Speaker 2 (01:00:35):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:00:35):
Yeah, yeah, one year returns would be close to that
ten And you got eight percent?

Speaker 2 (01:00:39):
Yeah, okay.

Speaker 5 (01:00:40):
And these are all this data set that I'm looking at.
It all includes the Cuban missile crisis, the Iraq War,
Arab spring, you got President Nixon impeachment proceedings in nineteen
seventy four, you got Brexit vote, everything in between. If
you're scared because of a geopolitical headline, just you know,
sit on your hands for a bit. Like Pale said today,

(01:01:00):
let it clarify, Let.

Speaker 2 (01:01:01):
It clarify it. In twenty twenty two, with Biden's president,
the market was down twenty four percent, and not for
thear that in twenty twenty two there was a twenty
four percent drop from top to bottom. Twenty four percent.
We're down seventeen and a half. And why would you
get out now? Did you get out when Biden was
down twenty four percent, then if you're getting out now

(01:01:22):
when you didn't get out when Biden was down twenty
four percent, it's for geopolitical reasons, which is the stupidest,
is just not the right reason to sell.

Speaker 1 (01:01:32):
I've called theation.

Speaker 5 (01:01:33):
I have two more fun facts for you to go
for it. I got so ten of the twenty best
trading days occurred in years where with negative returns. Okay,
does that make sense to oh?

Speaker 2 (01:01:43):
Yees? Yeah, okay.

Speaker 5 (01:01:45):
On the latter half, you have eleven of the twenty
worst trading days occurred in years with positive total returns.
So again, this is one of the worst days since
March of twenty twenty, right, yep. But with that stat
I mean it looks looks all right.

Speaker 2 (01:02:00):
I would be surprised. We're down seventeen and a half
percent from the high. We're down thirteen point seven percent
year to date. I would be very surprised if one
of those explosive updates isn't right around the corner.

Speaker 4 (01:02:11):
And put it this way, end of the year, are
we lower higher than where we are right now?

Speaker 2 (01:02:16):
Higher? Higher?

Speaker 3 (01:02:17):
I think we're higher.

Speaker 2 (01:02:18):
Even Golder's act thinks were higher, and they're one of
those even RBC thinks were higher, right, and they're for
one of the lowest ones on the three. They are
the lowest stream and the low of the street, and
they even they think we're going to be ten percent
higher than we are now. So why would you sail
if the most negative, exactly firm on the street thinks
we're going to be ten percent higher in eight months?
That just makes no sense.

Speaker 4 (01:02:38):
The reason rates did take a plummet is because of
recession fears. It wasn't quite because we got a FED
errate coming right around the corner. It wouldlp people were
just going right into the yeah we're just supplying demand thing.
But it did help increase the chances that we might
get a FED rate cut. I was seeing on the
FED implied that it's going to be about a sixty
eight percent chance we get a FED cut in May,

(01:03:00):
and then about an eighty seven percent chance in July.

Speaker 2 (01:03:03):
CNBC this morning said they're predicting five rate cuts this year.
I hope not, because I may say, are really bad. Yeah, yeah,
you don't want you don't want rate cuts. Todd to that,
the Treasury the two year did go from three ninety
one to three sixty eight that's a huge decline.

Speaker 4 (01:03:19):
As a two year you said, yeah, a two year, Yeah, yeah,
the ten year made a little bigger a job.

Speaker 2 (01:03:23):
No, now four eighteen to four, it got back up
to four.

Speaker 1 (01:03:27):
I thought we got four and that was.

Speaker 2 (01:03:28):
Twell four briefly and it was four fourth to close.

Speaker 4 (01:03:31):
Yeah, and that's gonna significantly change a lot of these
interest rates safe and you know, we talked about my
guess the multi year guaranteed those rates will be changing
here soon. Obviously bond rates have already changed.

Speaker 2 (01:03:43):
Oh, it's interesting. I saw the Vanguard money market fund
had gone up back up to four and a quarter
on Friday. On Friday was four and a quarter, and
it was down like three ninety five a week ago.
Very very interesting. Todd. One of the investments that we
always call a risk asset, Bitcoin, what happened there?

Speaker 4 (01:04:02):
Yeah, well that's the place to hide this week.

Speaker 2 (01:04:04):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:04:04):
What happened is.

Speaker 2 (01:04:04):
There's a big risk asset in the biggest down week
since since twenty twenty, it goes up.

Speaker 4 (01:04:11):
Bitcoin's a leading indicator, let's hope. So yeah, you know it.
Bitcoin was just saying, you guys are just catching up.
We've been there, We've done that and we've been We've
been here for a while, So yeah, I think it's
a good sign to see bitcoin hanging in there. It
didn't hang in there in twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (01:04:31):
Just remember the from a long term perspective, when the
market's down big, you're a buyer, not a seller. When
the market's up big, you're a seller not a buyer.
Human nature is the reverse of that. I always tell
people we have a really strange business. When everything's on sale.
Nobody wants anything to do with us. When we have

(01:04:52):
all time high prices, we are so busy.

Speaker 3 (01:04:54):
Well, part of you could say is if you're really
that scared right now in the last two days where
the market went down so much, you might be too
aggressive in your portfolio. You might need to reevaluate your
allocation and your risk tolerance because it might be a
lot lower now than it was when you initially open
your account, when you initially invested. If it's been years
since you reevaluated that, it might be something to reevaluate now.

Speaker 2 (01:05:15):
Well, in twenty three, twenty four, it was really easy
to be aggressive. I remember you got the phone call
after Trump got elected with the client called and said,
Trump's elected. I think we need to be more aggressive.
But I remember we had that call, and of course
you told no that we're not changing your investment of productive.
I'm sure he's happy today. Hey, you know we've talked
about seven to eleven over the last couple of days.

(01:05:36):
I had a client call and I'm bringing this up
for a third week only because it's just a kind
of a fascinating story. He said. You know, we talked
about the retailer having the most locations of any store
in the world, more than eighty thousand locations, and we
were surprised that forty thousand of those stores were in Japan. Well,

(01:05:56):
our client, Mike wrote me that the stores in Japan,
the stores in Japan are not like the stores here.
Seven eleven stores, you said, they're immaculate, they're inviting and
very conscientious employees. They said, the food they serve is
very high quality and healthy, and they especially have bento boxes.
Bento boxes are adult lunch boxes. Said the parent company.

(01:06:19):
This's the franchises. Parent company would love to make over
the American seven levels to make them more like the Japanese,
better quality, a better shopping experience. So apparently in Japan
they're more like I would equate it to QT. I
like QT. I mean you could I could eat a
QT every day of the week for a while before
I got sick of it, and I could eat healthy

(01:06:41):
at QT.

Speaker 3 (01:06:41):
Do you think you could actually get sick of it?

Speaker 2 (01:06:43):
I don't know how long I get sick of it.

Speaker 3 (01:06:45):
How long you've been going to sauce every Tuesday?

Speaker 2 (01:06:47):
Yeah? Quite a while. My wife and a friend went
down to Tubacca for a girl's weekend and they called
me at dinner time and said they were in the
in the restaurant down there and eating flame and yon
and said, what do you have a nice gas station.

Speaker 1 (01:07:04):
QT?

Speaker 5 (01:07:05):
Hey, I actually did some housekeeping myself. I'm glad that
you brought it up on seven eleven. So Speedway actually
is owned by seven eleven, so they are, yeah, included
within that store.

Speaker 2 (01:07:16):
That's maybe a kind of their attempt to be a
little bit more upscale. I've not been in the Speedway.

Speaker 3 (01:07:21):
I feel like ways about saying it's just more of
a gas station. No, no, this is more of gas station.
Not all seven elevens have gas anymore.

Speaker 5 (01:07:30):
Also, the Speedway is just like it's got the gas
station and it's a very small like box if you will.
It's not a huge QT that you walk in and
there's ice.

Speaker 1 (01:07:39):
Yeah, but it depends.

Speaker 3 (01:07:40):
I mean, that's the one by your house. You got
ones all over the country that have bigger but it's
not QT. QT is nice like BUCkies.

Speaker 2 (01:07:47):
Well, my wife called from two back and asked me
where I had dinner. I said a QT, and she said, no,
you're eating at the gas station. I said no, it's
a restaurant that happens to sell gas. That's what That's
what QT is. Yeah, I mean in there, check it out.

Speaker 4 (01:08:00):
Another risk said that it had a good week.

Speaker 2 (01:08:03):
Risk ass they're talking about the hot dogs at seven eleven, or.

Speaker 3 (01:08:08):
That's risky, could be risky.

Speaker 2 (01:08:10):
I don't know something I never I mean, yeah, I
got stuck in Elo one time. I'm coming back from
Phoenix with my Tesla and I couldn't make it all
the way. Well actually I could make it all the way,
but instead i'd get home with three percent battery. And
I'm not that guy. So I stopped. Oh you're not,
I'm not. I stopped in Ely and they have a
beautiful bank of Tesla chargers in Ely, right next to

(01:08:33):
this fairly dumpy seven eleven circle, Okay, whatever it is.
And I went in there and had that supper and
they had these the pizza right by the cashier rub
the checkout in one of those revolving cases. You know, Oh,
I have a pizza, pizza and they put in the
box and took it out side. That was quite an adventure.

Speaker 3 (01:08:51):
What's the risk gus that they were talking.

Speaker 2 (01:08:52):
About pizza seven eleven ahead?

Speaker 4 (01:08:57):
First Solo First Solid did traded a little lower on
the week. I think it was about four percent lower.
But this stock had a nice little jump on Thursday
because of how much interest rates come down. Right, So
with them being soldar, they had an also American made
manufacturing company, They're not really going to be impacted by
a tariffs rates lower is going to help the solar picture.
So the First Solar had a nice little week hanging

(01:09:20):
in there. Another's couple stocks I saw that hung in there.
You know, we were talking about last week AutoZone, O'Reilly's
anything where it's more of just kind of fixed what
you already have type of thing. It seems to be
doing well.

Speaker 2 (01:09:32):
That's the Apple had a terrible week. Horrible. Apple is
probably one of those companies that's like Nike that's going
to struggle trying to find a supply chain. Fox con Yeah,
down thirteen percent in the last two days of the week,
just in two days. Apple.

Speaker 4 (01:09:49):
Well, you know it's like the workers that Apple hate
themselves so much that they have like nets outside of
their buildings because people so many people jump out and
try to kill themselves. We're trying to to bring those
jobs back to America.

Speaker 2 (01:10:03):
That does not sound like That does not sound nets.

Speaker 4 (01:10:07):
No, seriously, Yeah, they have nets around Fox Gone because
they had so many people trying to kill themselves.

Speaker 2 (01:10:12):
I'll tell you somebody who's trying to control the world
is Rocket Companies.

Speaker 4 (01:10:16):
Oh yeah, they are.

Speaker 2 (01:10:17):
You probably saw where Rocket Companies agreed to acquire real
estate Sellar Redfin.

Speaker 5 (01:10:22):
They just bought another one up.

Speaker 2 (01:10:23):
Mortgage firm, mister Cooper. Now I don't know a heck
of a lot about mister Cooper would be interesting now,
but it might be some homework. How did it end
up being named mister Cooper? Kind of like our Restoration
Hardware Exploration, where we enlightened everybody of why a restorate,
why a luxury furniture store is called restoration hardware?

Speaker 4 (01:10:44):
Well, you know what did really good this week three
things chocolate, smoking and beer.

Speaker 2 (01:10:51):
Wow.

Speaker 4 (01:10:52):
Yeah, Philip Morris held in their Hershe's was almost green
every single day. It seemed like it held in them
pretty well. Maybe Friday I finally sold off the fanship conditions.

Speaker 5 (01:11:01):
People are just gonna be stressed out.

Speaker 3 (01:11:02):
And then.

Speaker 4 (01:11:04):
I mean, it's always the play for some reason. When
socks get really bad, you see these stocks not sell
off as much. Tyson Foods is another one I saw
hanging there pretty good.

Speaker 2 (01:11:13):
I was. I looked at the value ets. They got
hit pretty hard.

Speaker 1 (01:11:16):
The value did.

Speaker 2 (01:11:17):
That's what I mean, really shocked it because a lot
of the value stocks, I mean had lots some of
the value stocks held in there pretty good for sure.
But I think if you're gonna get back into this market,
you and you're you're nervous about it, you may want
to consider an ETF, maybe a spider, the spy or
the QQQ, something like that. The banking ETF got hammered,
the oil ETF got hammered. There's you can almost throw

(01:11:39):
a dark There's so many good opportunities out there, so
take a look at it. We'll be back with the
second second, last two segments.

Speaker 3 (01:11:46):
Right just break Welcome back to the Money Matter Show.
We're gonna do some housekeeping from the previous segment. Mister
Cooper Mortgage was renamed in twenty seventeen from Nation Star
Mortgage to personify the brand, to make it more sod some,
more human, and more inviting than a faceless corporation. There's
no one person that is named after. It's not some
hundred year old company named mister Cooper after some guy.

(01:12:10):
It was just rebranded to try and make it seem
more friendly.

Speaker 2 (01:12:13):
Marketing employee. All a marketingployee, you said your grandma did what?

Speaker 5 (01:12:17):
Yeah, so my grandma's mortgage had gotten bought out by
mister Cooper a couple of months back, and she actually
wrote me or she afforded me the email and wanted
me to go over it because she had no idea
who mister Cooper was.

Speaker 2 (01:12:28):
No, I get it, I'll get it. Not held by
mister Cooper. Who is he? You know that would be
my first guy. That's odd.

Speaker 5 (01:12:35):
But going back to that, good for a rocket companies.
So I think they're really that's a good play for them.

Speaker 2 (01:12:41):
They're taking advantage of the week and you send the
market and and and scarfing.

Speaker 5 (01:12:44):
Up a lot and who they're going to be a
huge beneficiary if these rates keep coming down right in
the housing market.

Speaker 2 (01:12:51):
No, I like it a lot. It's I think I
think they're going to be good.

Speaker 1 (01:12:55):
Tesla.

Speaker 2 (01:12:55):
Let's talk a little bit about Tesla open five percent
Laura on Monday after an investment firms stifle cut his
price target. Firm said slower than expected to roll out
of the model y and recent protests could weigh on sales.
You think understandably, there's a lot of people wanting to
support Eon Musk And we've said before on the show,
buy the car, not the stock, unless your risk tolerance

(01:13:18):
can handle a bot of the stock. Tesla this week
dropped from what two sixty eight to two forty. I
think it was something like that. That's what it finished
the week out two Yeah, around two forty. They had
their the company, the company itself, Remember you're buying stock
in the company. The company itself had its worst quarter
since twenty twenty two. On Wednesday, the announced they delivered

(01:13:41):
just three hundred and thirty six thousand vehicles. Remember four
hundred thousand more normal. You got a smile on your face, Attent.

Speaker 5 (01:13:47):
Todd Since Dylan and I something about Kathy Wood, like
crazy price target on Tesla.

Speaker 3 (01:13:52):
It was like twenty twenty six and Kathy Wood is
the president of ARC Investments. Very successful, she reiterated it.

Speaker 4 (01:14:02):
I think yesterday, it was.

Speaker 3 (01:14:03):
Last week, she reiterated during this free fall after all
the Elon must turmoil. And the reason she says that
is because of the robotics coming through.

Speaker 5 (01:14:11):
And the initial price target, the twenty six hundred dollars
level that she released was before that run up that
we saw back when Elon musk.

Speaker 3 (01:14:18):
Yeah, she's been super bowlish on Tesla for years, but
she believes it's more than the car. She believes it's
either the battery now it's the robotics coming through, the robotaxi. First,
back robo taxi, that was the biggest one. And her
thing was that she's like, once the robo taxi becomes
the norm with Tesla, then the analysts are gonna have
to add that to their model and they're going to
quantify that and put it in their model. And that's

(01:14:39):
why she has the price target that she has, which
is twenty six hundred dollars a share.

Speaker 4 (01:14:43):
It all goes down to the gross margin. She believes
on the actual ROBOTAXI. I think the margin that they're
making on selling cars is only sex percentage with a
robot taxi. It's a subscription model. The things you can
do with it, all of a sudden, margins get exploded.
That's where her thinking is. Then on top of it,
her chair on top is this, you know, optimist. I
think they call it the robot then Holm robot.

Speaker 2 (01:15:05):
In all fairness, Kathy Wood is a headline hound and
it helps her business. It helped, you know, being in
the headlines helps for business. And one of the surefire
ways to be in the headlines is to make.

Speaker 5 (01:15:17):
Throw out a crazy price target, some interesting.

Speaker 2 (01:15:19):
Price targets, and uh and see if it's stick. I
think one of the craziest stocks this past week, in fact,
maybe the craziest dock this year. Newsmax. Oh yeah, you
guys watch that. Newsmax is a right leaning outlet. They're
kind of a competitor to Fox if I understand it correctly.
They went public on Monday last Monday at ten bucks
a share. It was in demand, so it opened it

(01:15:41):
fourteen dollars and then ran to seventy eight dollars that
same day. From ten to seventy eight. The following day
hit two sixty five two hundred and sixty five dollars
before closing the week at forty five. So it went
from ten. Actually fourteen was a slow as you could
have bought it from fourteen to two sixty five back

(01:16:03):
to forty five. Remember, after significant due diligence and market research,
the underwriters, who are in charge of getting the most
they can possibly get from the stock, thought we'll bring
it at ten because that's that. They thought, that's about
as much as we're going to.

Speaker 5 (01:16:20):
We were watching it on Tuesday trade a little bit
and somebody in the office here jokingly said, let's buy
something at one twenty. Again, it was a joke. We
sure didn't do it. By the end of the day
it was worth two hundred and sixty dollars to share.
I mean, you could make a one hundred percent in
a couple of hours.

Speaker 2 (01:16:34):
I was looking at it one past and I was
looking at one time, and the bid was two thirty
and the ask was two forty. Yeah, ten dollars spread
the buyer and seller infanity. You just you don't see
that very often.

Speaker 3 (01:16:48):
Well you did a few years ago. Yes, IPOs like
that was the norm back of like twenty twenty and
twenty twenty one.

Speaker 2 (01:16:55):
Yeah, back before the dot bomb the crash, not twenty
one to nineteen ninety nine, and.

Speaker 3 (01:17:00):
Well the dot com bubble did that. But there was
IPOs coming out left and right back a couple of
years ago, well not a few years ago, in twenty
twenty and twenty twenty one, that would just explode. They
all go up about one hundred percent day one. But
that was also when the FED was pumping in money
into the economy to try and stimulate it. After COVID
and then everything like that, they came to reality in
twenty twenty two. When plug Power is not worth eighty

(01:17:22):
dollars a share, it's eight dollars a share. Peloton's not
worth one hundred and seventy dollars a share, it's worth
twelve dollars a share. All those stocks came back to
earth because the FED stopped pumping in money and people
stopped getting stimulus checks that they opened Robinhood accounts with.
That was a big reason of it, and that's also
a big reason why the stock market crashed in twenty

(01:17:43):
twenty two, one of the worst years cent eight.

Speaker 5 (01:17:45):
There wasn't that other IPO this week? Core weave farwel
you guys heard about that one.

Speaker 2 (01:17:50):
Yeah, that was an interesting ipl and it came out
thirty bucks a share and Friday, right yeah kind of
yeah for a full week of trading was last week
was kind of the yawner. It was kind of a
weak IPO, which was disappointing because, like we said on
the show last Friday, they had all about buzzwords, right,
I E AI GPU.

Speaker 4 (01:18:09):
For sure and I was looking this week, I just
had to report on it. They have relationships with almost
every Max seven but Tesla I think, I mean they
have a relationship with Amazon, Google. They just announced that
it's a huge one with Nvidio. Yeah, it's I don't
see how this couldn't be.

Speaker 2 (01:18:23):
It came out, it was a big yawn and it
was kind of disappointing, not only to the AI stock
but also ipo. Marstead, the IPO market is dead and
then you get news.

Speaker 5 (01:18:33):
Max, but I mean it's up from its ipo priss.

Speaker 2 (01:18:37):
Right, you jump thirty thirty two percent on excuse me
forty percent on Tuesday came in and jumped forty percent
and then it sold off near the end of the week.
I think it ended the week around forty five.

Speaker 4 (01:18:51):
I almost think it's like a response to Newsmax because
it seems like such a better company than Newsbacks. Of course, yeah,
but Newsmax.

Speaker 5 (01:18:58):
I mean, if you go on Newsmax's website, it looks
like it was created in maybe like nineteen eighty five.

Speaker 2 (01:19:03):
Oh really, it's not a good one.

Speaker 4 (01:19:04):
I have Internet back okay, two thousand, whatever, Am I bad?

Speaker 3 (01:19:08):
It didn't look like there's any ads on the website.

Speaker 4 (01:19:10):
Really, no, no, it looks really bad.

Speaker 3 (01:19:12):
Yeah, it just looks like the size that's horrible.

Speaker 2 (01:19:15):
And they're they're on cable or something. What do you
Where would you watch news?

Speaker 5 (01:19:18):
I'm not sure where you watch it, but you could
just go on their website and you know, like you
do have his articles.

Speaker 2 (01:19:23):
Yeah, I think they do have a show, because I
was reading about it, said the competitor to Fox.

Speaker 4 (01:19:28):
Really it might be on Pluto TV or something.

Speaker 2 (01:19:31):
Yeah, that Pluto is free TV, right, Yeah, yeah, it's
free TV because you got ads. I mean, isn't that
network TV? Isn't it?

Speaker 1 (01:19:38):
It's literally the same thing. I remember when I they.

Speaker 4 (01:19:41):
Started watching it was horrible. How they make it? Buddy
and then I realized that, yeah, they have ads. I'm like, well,
why are they charge of me?

Speaker 2 (01:19:47):
Buddy?

Speaker 1 (01:19:47):
Then?

Speaker 2 (01:19:48):
Yeah, I mean I watched it one time because that's
my son in law has some relationship with the guy
that founded Pluto and he knows him and whatever I thought,
I thought, I check it out and I watched it
for about that. This is network TV.

Speaker 4 (01:20:02):
It's not bad for being free.

Speaker 2 (01:20:05):
Yeah, but then neither is ABC or or CBS or NBC. Well, right,
I mean that's not they're free and then they have
pretty good content, way better than Blue.

Speaker 4 (01:20:18):
But you have to pay for direct TV or Dish
to get that.

Speaker 2 (01:20:21):
Now you can watch interested in local channels, Well, NBC,
you have to be wired rabbit.

Speaker 4 (01:20:28):
Okay, if you if you asked a thirty year old
to just buy a TV and turn on a local channel,
I guarantee they don't know how to do it.

Speaker 2 (01:20:35):
No, I know that because I don't think I know
how to do that. Do you do it now? But
then you can't dial you know how to dial phone either?
So you know it's yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:20:43):
So I guess what you're saying is it's irrelevant to.

Speaker 2 (01:20:44):
Know that it's irrelevant. We had a volunteer was interesting
in the headline. Stata down seven percent on Monday, put
it in on track for a fifth straight losing session,
fillmore than five percent the previous week. We've been watching this, Doud.
You and I have talked about this on the show
about how this is just it's got a pee of

(01:21:06):
five hundred what's that Palenteer, Yeah, five hundred times earnings.
It's a defense contractor okay, that that's fine, but it's.

Speaker 4 (01:21:15):
Off with some technology in it.

Speaker 2 (01:21:17):
I guess that's down forty percent from its high in
the last six weeks, and that's now now I'm thinking, okay,
that makes sense. So so here you've got to Palenteer
at five hundred times earnings or Nvidia twenty times earnings,
which one.

Speaker 4 (01:21:29):
Yeah, that's one that I think, like you said in
the news, Max, that's a meme stock. I think there's
a big fan club behind that one that drove that
company high for really no reason. You know what's interesting.
I saw Toyota. They're they're trading down five percent on Friday,
but on the on the aftermarkets, they're actually up five percent.
So there must have been some news for that company.

(01:21:50):
I can't quite find it right now, but it seems
like they're getting a bid on the aftermarket.

Speaker 2 (01:21:53):
And what I don't want Monday is I don't want
to come in Monday and see the market up big,
because after two days of heavy selling, to get a reversal,
you need the market to be down big. If the
market opens up five hundred points on Monday, it's not
gonna hold. You're not gonna ho don't get don't get
chomping at the bit and you see that five hundred
Oh I got again, that's about I gotta get in.

(01:22:13):
You want to see the market on Monday down four
or five six hundred points then reverse.

Speaker 5 (01:22:19):
Now I was kind of happy not to see the
market rally on Friday because of that same reasoning. Yeah,
I mean, if I would have seen it jump a
percent or two into the clothes, I would have been
kind of I would have been a little bit more
timid about And I think it.

Speaker 2 (01:22:30):
I think it sold off into the clothes, honestly, because
of those of us who remember nineteen eighty seven, that's
the only thing. And if we wake up Monday morning
and it's not nineteen eighty seven, I think that could
be a good sign, sign, good sign up a bottom
the Petco. You know, I think Petco's got the coolest
symbol out there. You know what their symbol is, woolf Yeah,

(01:22:51):
good job woof Wolf down fifty percent from the high,
and they jumped twelve percent of the open on Wednesday
on a recent SEC filing. Get this the get this
that's first. And I've said that in the show Get
This now always listened, bag, Why do you say get
this all the time. The CEO of Petco bought one
point six million shares. Now it's not an expensive stocks

(01:23:16):
like five to six bucks. I don't think you're gonna
buy one point six million shares just to kind of
make a public statement that you think the company's okay.
I believe you buy one point six million shares because
you think you're gonna make some money on it.

Speaker 4 (01:23:30):
You know, I think a company that for me that
jumps out as Taiwan's Semiconductor TSM, they're moving, they're manufacturing
to the United States, right right, should benefit them.

Speaker 2 (01:23:39):
Yep.

Speaker 4 (01:23:40):
I don't think chips are going in.

Speaker 2 (01:23:41):
Intel got hammered. The chip stocks all got hit. The
big banks got hit on Friday. Big banks got hit hard,
six to eight percent decline.

Speaker 4 (01:23:49):
The x LE we get their earnings reports coming up
for the retails next week they kick off earning season.

Speaker 5 (01:23:54):
How do teriffs impact banks?

Speaker 4 (01:23:56):
Sucks.

Speaker 2 (01:23:57):
I can't even imagine how that would directly, it's the
only thing you can Well, we'll be back with the
final segment of The Money Matter Show. We thank you
for joining this on this beautiful Sunday morning.

Speaker 5 (01:24:08):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Borsini here with David Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg and Todd
Click Junior vaults a week.

Speaker 4 (01:24:15):
We have the markets down across the board, but when
you look at it zoom outs, you realize we're just
right around the If you remember the August selloff, the
yen dollar carry trade kind of blew everything up right
down to fifty one. Then we exploded all the way
above six thousand. So that's kind of where we are
right now, a little lower. Yes, how we open up

(01:24:37):
on Monday is going to be quite a big deal
to a lot of the technicians. Fundamentally, it probably doesn't
matter too much because we're not going to get some
answers probably till the end of the next week. For
the clarity, Like Pal says, he wants to see the
fundamental clarity I think will take a little longer, but
I think the technical clarity will come in the first
couple of days of next week.

Speaker 2 (01:24:56):
Yeah, and the DALL lost thirty almost thirty three hundred
points last week and I don't and the S and
P five hundred down five hundred points, don't expect to
make that up anytime in the short term. A pop,
you bet. We can see a one or two hundred
point pop in the SMP easily. I think I'd probably
be a seller into that strength.

Speaker 4 (01:25:18):
And the old adages we have a stairway up, elevator down.

Speaker 2 (01:25:21):
Yep, absolutely, shareway up, elevator or escalator down. Absolutely, And
that's that's kind of the way it works. You guys
are still doing the financial plans, and what a great time.
If you're nervous. If you're a home gamer and you're
you're just not sure, if you're where you need to be,
give us a call. We can do the financial plan.

(01:25:43):
We have risk analysis tools. We can drop your portfolio
into the risk analysis tool. We can have you and
your wife complete a risk analysis questionnaire. See how they
match up. Maybe your risk analysis questionnaire says that you're
a defensive investor and your portfolios all aggressive gross stock,
that's just not where you want to be.

Speaker 3 (01:26:04):
It's all complimentary too, it's all free. It all to
set it up and help you. And then we just
want to build a relationship and educate. That's our main
goal here.

Speaker 2 (01:26:14):
Education is huge with us. We're trying to do that
all the time, every day and on this radio show
and in the office.

Speaker 4 (01:26:21):
Yeah, we have the TV shows too. We just went
up to Phoenix this last week Dylan, Dean and I
and we had the blessing to be able to record
those TV shows. It's always a fun thing to be
able to do with our host, Sarah Peterson. So you
also hear those on the radio that we do on Saturdays.
We got the Morning, we got the mid Day, we
got the Sunday Flagship, all kinds of ways that we

(01:26:41):
educate you always. You can go to our YouTube page
to see those TV shows if you're not able to
see them live. But those new TV shows will start
to be coming out and we have some really fun
stuff to talk about. Something we do need to touch
on and we've been quite buying quite a bit of
it lately for some of our clients is the structured
protection ETFs because of the fact that the indexes have

(01:27:02):
sold off so much that they're based on there's a
lot of these perstructure protection tfs that you can buy
with one hundred and one now maybe even one hundred
and two percent downside protection. Why would you need one
hundred and two percent downside protection. It means that you're
actually locking in a gain.

Speaker 2 (01:27:17):
Okay, So what you're saying is that you can buy
these ETFs, participate in the market to a certain extent,
and have no risk at all.

Speaker 4 (01:27:26):
That's how that's well, I'm not going to say no
risk at all, because it's going to that's what it
aims to do.

Speaker 2 (01:27:30):
If it works.

Speaker 4 (01:27:32):
Whatever they do works right. It's based on options, and
you know, anything in the financial market, you're not able
to say it for sure guarantee unless it's a treasury.
But yes, that's what the fun perspectives aims to do,
is with how these markets and how it's really just
based on a lot of math with options. They don't
just quite trade as simply as a bond does. Interest

(01:27:52):
rates go up, bond price goes down. It's it's it
doesn't quite happen that easily with options with a lot
of other Greeks and a lot of other metrics in there.
So when you have markets sell off, you have the
ability to actually change your entire risk profile. And there's
some things where yeah, you're aiming to get zero percent
downside protection even have a slight gain locked in, but

(01:28:14):
have a participation up to eight nine percent.

Speaker 2 (01:28:17):
Right, I want to talk a little bit about service.
I like to think that we have service at Greenberg
Financial that is as good as anyone. I want to
say best, better than because I have buddies out there
who'll give great service, but no one gives better service
than Greenberg Financial. Had a situation come up where I
have a couple clients, both in their early seventies, and

(01:28:41):
the man unfortunately suffered a stroke and they ended up
in Phoenix in a rehab hospital, and six weeks later
he's come home and he made most of the decisions
for the family. So the wife is a little bit
overwhelmed by the whole thing. They do have family, but
the families in North Carolina, and they needed to get
to North Carolina as quickly as possible. The big problem

(01:29:04):
standing in their way is they own a home and
in the neighborhood where their home is. Things are not
selling well, and she envisioned nine months to a year
trying to take care of her husband, who's recovering from
the stroke and doing reasonably well on a duro Tenns scale,
probably a sixth, you know, but difficult for her if

(01:29:26):
you can only imagine having to deal with that twenty
four to seven. So if they needed to get to
North Carolina where their kids were, but they needed to
sell the house and to be done with the house.
We have another client who, as his business buys houses,
is a house flipper essentially, and I talked to her
about this guy and what he could potentially do, and

(01:29:50):
she thought, she said, I'd love to talk to him.
I talked to him, ask if he'd be interested in
a house in this particular neighborhood, and he said, I'd
love to talk to her. Long story s. They got
together on the fifteenth of April. He pays cash for
her house. She takes the cash and has an airplane
to North Carolina where she can be with her family

(01:30:11):
and get some help taking care of this husband. And
this is just, you know, great service and whatever you need,
whether you need a state attorney, we have one. Whether
you need a CPA, we have that person, a mortgage guy,
we have those people. We are a full service operation,

(01:30:33):
and I believe we give service above and I wouldn't
have had I had to think of that, you know.
And then when she told me her story, I thought, huh,
I wonder if that will work. Yeah, And we got
from the thing absolutely zero. We got paid absolutely zero
to put these two together. But it made both of
their lives much much better. And that's what you like

(01:30:56):
to do. That's what we're here for.

Speaker 4 (01:30:57):
Yeah, that's exactly it. We don't get any rerees from
any of the people that we put you in touch with.

Speaker 2 (01:31:02):
That's a very good point. You know. Over the last
fifty years, there have been twenty seven corrections. Now correction
is ten percent or more decline, and we talked earlier
about the S and P's down seventeen point five percent,
so it is in correction territory. A bear market begins
at twenty percent. How many of those twenty seven corrections

(01:31:26):
do you think became bear markets? Seven very good dealing,
six very good, and so the odds of this correction
becoming a bear market are twenty two percent. Now that
that's three and a half or two and a half
percent further down and we're there, so that could be
next week time. Well this is the seventh time, you know,

(01:31:49):
because nobody knows where the bottom is until we've seen it.
But there's a good chance. And again, watch the open
on Monday. Be careful. I think Powell was absolutely right.
Step back, lets things clarify right now. All we have
are the initial sawbows of something that we really have
never seen the likes of in this country.

Speaker 4 (01:32:09):
William McKinley, Oh you think so, yes, I looked it
up and William McKinley was a very similar idea where
we had fifty percent tariffs brought up in the eighteen
nineties and it actually led to the Republicans losing the
House and it was one of the biggest blue sweeps
that they had because of that reversal, because it was
his public outrage that hurt the middle class and the

(01:32:30):
lower class, the working It did end up strengthening the
manufacturing powerhouse in America over time, but there was a
short term pain and that's I mean. And he still
ended up winning.

Speaker 2 (01:32:41):
The election that Trump always he talks about.

Speaker 4 (01:32:46):
And that's why I went back and looked at history,
like he always talks about this one, So what how
did the public react to him? And they didn't like
it at first, but they ended up re voting for
him four years later. So at the same token on,
it's kind of hard to like put yourself in eighteen
ninety you can only you can only read what they said.

Speaker 2 (01:33:04):
It was like they did re elect him, but not
everyone was in because he got assassinated.

Speaker 4 (01:33:10):
That's a very good point. I don't think everyone was
super happy about it. Yeah, a very good point.

Speaker 2 (01:33:16):
You don't like the election results, you know.

Speaker 1 (01:33:19):
Exactly?

Speaker 4 (01:33:20):
Do you know what the average length of a bear
market is?

Speaker 2 (01:33:22):
Average length of a bear eighteen months. I don't think
it's that long. I think it's more like nine months.

Speaker 4 (01:33:27):
It is nine months, eighty two days.

Speaker 2 (01:33:29):
Okay, yeah, it's not it's not long. And so it's
and it's not anything really to be feared. It is
part and parcel of every market cycle. And if you
decide to get out, and you're so likely to get
out now, like you know, Friday afternoon, when the market's

(01:33:50):
down seventeen and a half percent, that's when you're going
to want to get out. You're not going to want
to get out when the market's up seventeen and a
half percent, which is where you should take some profits. So,
like Dean said, we had a hedge on and in
verse ETF. We closed that out last week and we
are now wanting some stability and we're looking to add
because we have more cash than we would typically have

(01:34:12):
a couple of clients that are more aggressive. I did
sell bonds during the week, put them into more stocks
at their request, and I had at least a half
a dozen clients call and say I want to buy
I want to be in this market and put cash
that they had on the sideline to work. Again. I
think if you're if you're wanting to get in and

(01:34:33):
have a tight control on it as opposed to buying
two or three or four stocks or just one stock.
Consider an ETF. Consider the xl E for instance, which
is the oil ETF. It's gotten clobberate. I mean it
was down by seventeen percent last week. The banking ETF
holds all of the major bank and.

Speaker 4 (01:34:54):
All of ours gotten beat up.

Speaker 2 (01:34:56):
The nuclear space, the SPY which is the S and
P five hundreds. You can do S S O, which
is two times the S and P five hundred. So
if you're home gamer wanting a little spice and believe
there's going to be a bounce, you can buy the
S s O, which is two times the S and P.
So if the S and P rebounds five percent, you
make ten.

Speaker 3 (01:35:16):
You could also buy s P y U, which is
four times. I'm just saying there's there's hey, there's things
out there that you can buy, and then.

Speaker 2 (01:35:24):
There's one there's one out of very risky and there's
one out of it five times, five times.

Speaker 1 (01:35:29):
Five times.

Speaker 2 (01:35:30):
Come up with five times though, yeah, yeah, with in England,
I thought.

Speaker 3 (01:35:35):
I recommend oh, I think I think I saw like
a five X magot.

Speaker 2 (01:35:39):
Well, we all want to be happy, and of course
we all want to be healthy. And Greenberg Financial, what
we're trying to be is profitable. See you next week.

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