Money Matters: From Tech Highs to Trade Turbulence

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, good morning everybody. It's Sunday morning right here, seven
ninety knst. We're here to talk to you about money
matters and all all the things that go with it.
There's a lot going on this week, as you saw
in the markets. This is Dean Greenberg. Everybody else will
be joining us just in a little bit. And what

(00:22):
we need to talk about is the big reversal we
had in the market. We climbed all the way over
to sixty four hundred on the SMP on Thursday, and
we reversed pretty much one hundred points on the s
and P five hundred and one day, continually down on Friday.
And there's a lot of other things going on. Okay,

(00:45):
Basically at the end of the day, you have to
look at this and say, where is the news to
make us go higher? A lot of the news is out.
We have agreements with Europe, we have agreements so sort
of with China, we have agreements with Japan, we have
agreements with South Korea. With we have a whole bunch

(01:06):
of trade agreements that are in there. The ones that
have not been done. He raised tariffs on trying to
squeeze them to come to the table it's a wouldn't
win for both. I know some people think, wow, how
is that good for us because it raises our prices. Well, one,
we haven't seen the prices raised yet. Two, some of

(01:27):
it will be absorbed. And three yes, some of them
will be a one time raising price. As capitalism is,
you decide and choose what you want and not want.
But if it's going to give us surpluses of tens
of billions of dollars a month, that's only going to

(01:47):
help our economy. It's going to help what we do. Okay,
it is not fair that every one of our manufacturer,
everyone everything we export will paying taxes and as a
bat for us to get into countries around the world,
but they don't have the same barrier to come to
our country. There will be some challenges. I'm not going

(02:09):
to deny that with the fact that we have to
go ahead and we'll see some areas of the markets rise.
But if you put everything into play that Trump's trying
to do with his economy here, things will be exactly
the way we want it to be. Hey, all you

(02:30):
have to look at is all these experts that told
you that everything he's doing is going to destroy the
economy and the markets are showing you that. And when
they went down, it took us two months for the
markets to realize that the tariffs and his economic plan
and the things he's doing and the people coming to
the table with the tariffs is only positive for us,

(02:52):
only positive for all these technology companies. Even Apple showed
better than expected earnings. With all the hooplare going on. Now,
does that mean it's not going to have some problems
along the world. Of course it is. Nothing's a straight
shot to the top. So on a technical basis, we
kind of got to little over sixty four hundred. We

(03:15):
shot a shot everything we could into it. All the
good news reversed as soon as he said tyrres it's
an excuse for people to go ahead and sell a
little bit. But the bigger news is interest rates. Okay,
that's the key to this whole economic part. This week,
We're kept seeing these labor reports come out over the

(03:35):
last few months showing quote that we had, you know,
higher labor, good labor, tight labor, and then all of
a sudden, the adjustments come in and the lower then expected,
which means that the Fed could have been lower interest rates,
and says the same thing that Trump says. Trump says,
our economy is getting we could we need to lower

(03:58):
interest rates across the board. Now here's the thing we
all know. There's a tip going on with Powell and Trump, right,
so what they need to do, Okay, if it's going
to be really independent, is not allowed politics or feelings
about one another get into play. Trump is allowed to

(04:21):
say that he feels part of his economic policy is
to bring down interest rates. Powell's allowed to say, well,
these are the things that they're going to go in
a certain direction. But when you feel that there's more
of a power play there, Powell trying to hurt not
only Trump, because if you hurt Trump, you're going to
hurt the economy. Then there's a problem he had. Remember

(04:45):
in September of last year, for the first time in
fifty years, Jerown Powell had no problem lowering interest rates
right before the election as the first time someone from
the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, and fifty year is
two months before the election. It doesn't usually happen. Then

(05:06):
he lowered them again and the inflation news got better.
So the only thing he's holding up now is saying, well,
the labor report was tight, and the and that we
don't know the the inflationary problems that we're going to
have because of tariffs, Well here it is. You now

(05:28):
see that the revised numbers on the job market, on
the job front was less than expected, which means there's
an easing there. You saw unemployment take up, and you've
seen inflation pretty much tamed. So why not lower interistrates
right now? With the caveat that says, if we have

(05:52):
to raise rates because we see too much inflation coming
back because of tariffs, will raise rates again. But remember
the terriff is not an inflationary situation on an ongoing
basis like we had with Biden. Under Biden, we didn't
know what with the level of inflation was because it

(06:14):
just kept going higher and higher until we got our
hands around it. And in fairness, a lot of that
was coming out of the pandemic and we had a
less we didn't have as many goods trying to get
through the pipeline and everything else. And I get that,
but it still got up pretty high until it started
coming back down with tarifs. Anything that goes up, that's it.

(06:36):
You're not going to continually see you go up unless
taris kept going up. If that's going to be the case,
I am not so sure it's going to be the case.
If we go ahead and allow us to lower rates. Now,
that's good for the country. That's good for the individual
of our citizens, American citizens. It's good for obtaining moving

(06:58):
in and getting home price is going together, going into
being able to see people moving in the home markets.
You know, nobody wants to leave their homes right now.
When you got two point seventy five or three or
three and a half percent rates for seven, we've got
to get those rates back into the five five and
a half percent rates, and you'll start seeing the home

(07:22):
market come back and be revived again in the right way,
not just because it's type inventory or or people need
to be able to move or do this or do that.
Because when the housing market is strong and things are
going right and we can build and people buy, think
about all the other companies that go into the house

(07:43):
that they're going to make money too, Not just the
builders and the construction workers, but everything from washing machines
and kitchen appliances, the bedroom stuff to living room things
to pool supplies. It helps the economy grow. So I
think what's going to happen here is whether it happens

(08:04):
now or it happens next year, you'll see ways come
down and that will be the impetus for us to
get that second boost for growth. So with all that said,
I'm looking for the markets to pull back a little bit.
I had been looking for the market to pull back.
We've been caution is going into this, and I think
right now, if we see a five percent pullback or

(08:25):
so or seven pretty much max. I don't think it's
going to be more than that. Maybe ten, I don't know.
So that puts us somewhere around six thousand, fifty nine
hundred and six thousand. If it was ten percent of
it'll bring us down to about fifty about fifty seven
hundred or something. I would be all in because if
it happens, durre in August September, which is the worst one,

(08:48):
so you should be pulling back anyway. I think the
last quarter we're going to see the market's rally. I
think I think there's a good chance we'll see interest
rates come down a little bit, and I think we'll
see for one more time one way or the other,
all right, and then and then we'll go from there.
But the big thing is that you saw this week

(09:09):
is that no matter what's going on, these tech companies
are the companies that are blowing out earnings. You saw
Meta and Microsoft this week. You saw Apple. Amazon wasn't
too bad, but they got hit. But Meta and Amazon,
Meta and Microsoft just took off and along with all

(09:29):
the other ones that are with them. I mean, I
haven't seen a Meta up eighty points in one day,
you know, I don't know if I ever did. Maybe
they did during the big, big swings we had, but
I mean, those are the things you look for, and
they're gonna keep going fire. Their video keeps making new highs.
It's not going anywhere. If you can just take yourself,

(09:51):
remove yourself a little bit and understand that AI, artificial
intelligence is in the infancy state. Probably the best way
to look at it is is back when we just
started coming out with computers and that changed everything. That
led to the Internet, and that whole thing put together

(10:14):
created an incredible, incredible growth area in our economy. As
we moved through there, the icing on the cake with
the smartphones with Apple, Okay, that was the next big
thing that grew. And now in the next thing now,
So what are we fifteen years into that? Now? Now
it's artificial intelligence. And I know there's things behind that quantum,

(10:39):
quantum computing and all, but I'm just going to stay
right now in this artificial intelligence. There's so many different
areas of artificial intelligence that is positive. Yes, we all
know there's a little there's some negatives, but the positives
that are there in the healthcare industry, in the manufacturing industry,
and and self driving. I mean, you know, imagine this,

(11:03):
how many people and you know, get older and they
can't drive, but they want to drive, and they still
try to keep their driving license. It would be great
to have a car you just get into. You never
have to lose your independence. It's your car. You going
place where you want to go by just going ahead
and telling that the computer artificial intelligence, this is where

(11:26):
I want to go, and they take you. You don't
need a driver, you don't need to drive, and it'll
be a lot safer for you and everybody else. These
are things that are positives. Eventually. You know, people talk
about home robots, robotics, it's going We've seen that robotics
in many ways working in manufacturing, healthcare business, it's going

(11:50):
to happen at home, and it's going to be expensive
at first. So this is why there's a long, a
long leeway for all this to come in the play.
And remember all the other companies and the software companies
and the chip companies and everything else that comes in
that are going to make this industry keep growing. Now,

(12:11):
if you think about big screen TVs, right, you know
the flat screens when they first came out Plasmas and all,
they were five, six, seven, ten thousand dollars. You want
a big one to you, you would talk about thirty
five forty grand for your home if you wanted to
get one of those seventy eighty inches. Think about how
much they are. Now, this is what's going to happen

(12:32):
over the next ten to fifteen years. You're going to
see the robotics come out. You're going to see the
driver's cossblower. You're going to see all these things come out,
and they're not going to be the norm. They're going
to be kind of like, wow, look at that, that's
kind of cool. But over time they're going to become
the norm because they're going to become at a price

(12:53):
point where most people can afford them and will want
to use them. No different than a smart phone. Almost
everybody in the world. Almost everybody in the world as
a smartphone, and they still go for eight hundred dollars
or one thousand bucks to twelve hundred dollars. But when

(13:13):
it first came out, there were a lot more. So
think about that, and that's still a lot of money
today for most people eight hundred and twelve hundred. But
they get them. They do this. This is why I'm
so high store on technology for the next five, seven,
ten years. Will there be blips, yes, will there be
pulled back chests. Will some of the big good companies

(13:36):
kind of like stroll out like Apple did for a
while and then have to get going against deaths. The
biggest one though, is Intel. Right when you look at Intel,
there's a perfect example of a company that can make
a lot of money, but there's no growth, so it
doesn't get rewarded with the stock prices. And that's something
you can see happening down the road. I don't think

(13:57):
we're there yet. I still think the video and Broadcom
and a MD still have a lot of growth in
him over the years. Now, will they be will they
get aheaded times absolutely now. Not only are the chip
companies that what about all the cooling, what about all
the electricity, what about all the things that come into
play in this industry. There's going to be abundance of

(14:19):
jobs that are available there and people need to start looking.
So the biggest thing we need right now is to
get interest rates lower. With the news on Friday, with
all the the readjustments to the jobs report, and then
and then Trump coming out and and firing the labor

(14:40):
statistics guy. Great move. You know what, he's running this
country as a business. I know people get all upset
with him when he does this, but there's no tolerance.
You're in. You're in as a president for four years period.
That's all he's got right now. So if he sits
around a and waits and makes mistakes, it's not going

(15:03):
to work. At least when he does make a mistake,
at least when something's not working, he changes it. That's
the sign of a very successful leader, person that understands
where the vision is and where he wants to go.
They know they're not always right, but they're right more
than they're wrong, and they're definitely right more than the
people that are against them. And when you put that

(15:25):
in perspective and understand that, that's when you put the
whole thing together and realize, Wow, maybe I don't understand this,
but it's going in the right direction. Maybe there's people
out there like myself who understand it, who are telling
you in the end, this is probably going to be
very good with bumps in the road, and to look
for opportunities to take advantage of it. I'm not a

(15:49):
big fan right now in the healthcare industry. You see
him talking down healthcare. He wants prices to come down.
It's going to have to come from somewhere. It's going
to come from the pharmaceutical and drug companies, healthcare companies.
That's one of the reasons. That's an area I'm trying
to avoid as much as possible right now. But when
technology gets going and as AI gets going, those are

(16:10):
those are the companies that are going to use it.
They're going to offset the costs that they're going to
feel by lower prices, by lowering the cost of manufacturing
and doing the things they do very very important. As
we go through this, you're going to see companies emerge.
Chances of those little companies really emerging and and and

(16:31):
and and growing to be another Google or or Nvidia
or those It's going to be hard because these big
companies like Nvidia, A m D, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple,
they're investing in all these startup companies, which we need,

(16:53):
and that's the way they're getting a lot of their
R and D done. And then when that company matures, okay,
they'll give them an offer to buy them out, make
the people that started it very very wealthy, bring them
on board, and then they'll grow it from there and
they'll be part of a bigger company. That's why I'm
saying it's going to be hard in our life times

(17:15):
to see these companies grow like this again, because you
got to give it twenty five. You know, these companies
been around. Apple's been around them, mamember it almost went
bankrupt in the nineties, and the video a few times,
and down and out and down nowhere until about ten
years ago when it started. So these companies come on
and continue to grow over time, and there'll be some

(17:36):
others and there'll be other areas, but right now there's
no reason not to speak in the sweet spot. So,
you know, summarizing the markets right now, we've rallied. We've
rallied strong a lot more than that figure. It would
be people are taking profits right now. I think the
profit taking will continue. August, September October are the worst

(17:57):
months of the year. August can hang in there, September
usually down. October puts in the bottom and usually comes up.
I'm looking for the same type of thing back and forth.
Maybe not that much of a decline three five seven percent,
maybe ten. I will be looking for opportunities in the
same strong stocks I've had there to add to them,

(18:18):
because those are the ones that are going to be
bought when the markets fall. It's inevitable. The strongest companies
during that time are the ones that come back. And
if you think about it, when we just got hit
in twenty two, twenty twenty two, and then the videos
and the apples and all that were under one hundred,
look where they are now. And remember and the video

(18:39):
is split big time after that. Okay, So there's a
lot of stuff that is going on that is going
to give us that opportunity if you're patient and you
have some cash. So how do you do that? You
mitigate risk. We always talk about mitigating risk and put
it down but you have to plan for it. You know,
you have to plan for where you want to be
and what you want to do. And you know, the

(19:01):
biggest thing I see as I've been traveling and talking
to people, very very very wealthy people, very good people.
You know that a spot they have no plan on
how to retire. They've always in their lives accumulated wealth,

(19:24):
grow wealth, save money. They don't know how to deaccumulate
that wealth, how to take their moneys that they now
have and spend it in a manner that they don't
want out of money. Everyone is afraid once that paycheck
comes in, how am I going to survive? To go
through there? Well, one of the things you have to

(19:46):
understand is you can't spend all your money right away,
all right, because that will go. You can't take out
ten or fifteen percent out of your account every year
and think that's going to last very long. But you
come up with a strategy, a plan that fits your
lifestyle within the means that you can make it happen. Now. Obviously,

(20:08):
you know, social security adds to it. If you have
a pension, that's even better, but a lot of people
don't have pensions anymore, and that's always my concern. More
and more people don't have pensions. I love the talk
that they are not talking about going. One of the
things I've always said is how to private tize social security.
With a plan over the next twenty five to thirty years,

(20:29):
we can wean ourself for social security and everyone that
deserves it will get it, And everybody that will have
private accounts will have more money in their accounts than
they ever had before. I see that starting with hey,
you can put money away for your children, you know,
five thousand dollars here, and that that will grow for them.
Everyone knows that if you have fifty sixty years of growth,

(20:53):
that's better than ten years of growth or twenty years
of growth. It grows. But if you think about this,
if we took social Security and the employee's money and
the employee's money both went into a private account that
you cannot touch, it's like it's your pension account, just
like social Security, but it's your money. And you see

(21:14):
that growing, you're going to feel pretty good about it.
And then when you get to a certain age, whatever
that is fifty five, sixty, sixty five, sixty seven, you
can take a percentage job by innuitizing some of it
into a cash flow, into a check that comes to
you just like it is now. Think about how wealthy
America would be. Think about even the people that are

(21:36):
at the low economic ladder of the economy right putting
money away and being matched where that would be in thirty,
forty fifty years from now. And the best part about
it is you have to buy us government bonds and
you have to buy a stock indexes that will be

(21:58):
able to go ahead of stocks nothing like that. It
will absolutely absolutely grow America, make people wealthy, and we
would we would reduce our poverty. But no, what is
everyone said, Oh, this is just fourth for Wall Street,
this is for people. No, it's not. It's for the
Americans to capitalize on living here and growing. It's no

(22:22):
different than working for a company and buying their stock
with the hope that stock is going to go up
because you're working for them all the time and make
you money. So if we're supporting interest rates lower by
ourselves buying bonds, supporting the stock market, that brings capitalism
to the forefront. What is wrong with that? I don't

(22:46):
get it, don't understand it. But obviously politicians use everything,
but the fact that it's being talked about. Other ideas
and how to save money is going to be there
because we need to worry about where we are in
in costing. I mean, you know, I know we always
talk about it, but kids today, our children today, our
grandchildren today, it costs them a lot more to live

(23:10):
than we did. And wages and that got up as
much as pricing and everything else has and then not
going back because labor prices are up. So we have
to find other ways for people to actually save and
do a good job. So in summary, market's a little
bit risky right now. Mitigate your risk. Look for a

(23:30):
pullback to around the six thousand level to start looking
maybe the fifty nine hundred. If it comes lower than that,
to fifty seven, fifty eight, fifty five, I'd be all in.
Looking for us to move up in the fourth quarter.
I don't see anything stopping us. And next year I
think is going to be even better than this year,
and I hope it is. We'll see what happens. We
got to get these things implemented. We have to get

(23:52):
these tariff negotiations done, and we need to get lower
interest rates. Get all that stuff together, and we stopped
the wards in the Middle East, we stopped the wars
in Russia. All the time. We're going to be in
great shape. Thank you for listening. We'll be be back.
I really really appreciate that you will listen to us
and appreciate what we do for you. Have a great day.

Speaker 2 (24:15):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. Thank you Dean
for doing the monologue. I'm Dylan Greenberg here with Todd
Glick and Sebastian Borsini.

Speaker 3 (24:21):
Dean is up in Alaska with my brother and his family.

Speaker 2 (24:24):
Join that, but he's still able to do the monolog
because technology is awesome. Dave is up in Phoenix this
weekend enjoying his anniversary with Linda. They went to a concert.
They're actually taking a day off of work for the
first time. I think this year. Good for you, Dave.
We had a lot happen this week. I mean, just
to highlights this, GDP grew three percent dur in the
second quarter. The jobs report was much lower than expected,

(24:45):
and Trump called for the to fire the Labor Statistics Commissioner.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
FIGMA was a huge IPO.

Speaker 2 (24:51):
The tariff increase was announced on Friday, and it's going
to go into effect on the seventh treasure eels dropped
in response to that in the week's jobs reports, and
then there's a shooting in Manhattan that was aim for
the NFL. He went down the wrong one. He ended
up actually killing a Blackstone execs. So now there's that
whole conspiracy of was he supposed to kill that more
with the NFL. I don't know it's all that, but

(25:12):
it's unfortunate. It's very sad about what happened on Monday.
So it's a busy week. Markets took a turn for
the worst on Friday after the tariff news, and there's
uncertainty about what's going on in the future. The markets
hate uncertainty, and that's what we saw on Friday, and
that's why for the week, the Dow was down two
point nine percent, the SMP was down two point three percent,
the Nasdaq was down two point two percent, the Rustle

(25:33):
two thousand was down four percent, and the equal way
to SMP was down three point three percent.

Speaker 4 (25:38):
Going into this week, though, we had a lot of
momentum five straight days of making new all time highs
that continued into Monday, making a six straight day, and
everything looked good going into Tuesday.

Speaker 1 (25:50):
We have big.

Speaker 4 (25:51):
Earnings out of Microsoft and Meta. Both reported blockbuster earnings
and propelled stocks even to even a new record high
after having a sellout on Monday on the back end
of that trading session. So everything looked good going into Wednesday,
but we knew Apple was going to be an interesting
earnings report with all the tariff concerns, but Amazon was

(26:12):
expected to be decent. They came in decent, but the
issue was they had softer than expected guidance that led
to a selloff in that sector. Technology is what led
this whole rally up to these all time highs, and
it's what brought it down into the end of the week.

Speaker 5 (26:26):
When was it that Microsoft's Meta report it was a
two zair Wednesday.

Speaker 3 (26:29):
I believe it was.

Speaker 4 (26:30):
It probably was Wednesday.

Speaker 5 (26:32):
Either way, after hours these both of these stocks, I
think Microsoft was up ten percent and Metal was up
eleven percent. And you're seeing the numbers on the week
that dows down three percent, that qqq's down two and
a half percent or two point two percent.

Speaker 4 (26:44):
Yeah, the S and P was up over a percent
at intro week, but it sold off into the end
of it because of what we had was a bad
jobs report. Also, we didn't get a rate cut. We
knew weren't going to get a rate cut, but there's
still only about a fifty to fifty percent chance of
whether we're going to get one or not. In September,
Trump's been pounding on the table on pal to do so,

(27:05):
but right now there's no expectations. But then we got
a dismal jobs report on Friday, Trump saying, well, this
proves to you that we should have cut rates, he said,
and quote, he needs to go out and be put
out into the pasture, so his job. And well, something
also to note about that Federal Reserve meeting was there's
two dissenting opinions. That's the first time that's happened since

(27:28):
the nineties, over thirty years. And now if you look
deeper into why those two members dissented, both were one
was a Trump appointee, one was the leading candidate for
being the next FED chair. So it made a little
bit of sense on why they were on that side
of the fence, But still a big thing that you
had two governors dissenting against the overall opinion of not

(27:49):
cutting rates.

Speaker 2 (27:49):
You have two governors dissent, and then on Friday you
had a governor resigned. Adriana Kugler resigned on Friday, and
she was supposed to have her term is up in
January of twenty sixth, so it was coming, but she
decided to resign now. She didn't give a specific reason
in her letter, just says she wants to go back
to being a professor at Georgetown. But it's still interesting
in that after this seemed like a tumultuous FED meeting

(28:13):
this past month, that she resigns early.

Speaker 4 (28:15):
Yeah, Normally meeting minutes are really boring, and it's.

Speaker 3 (28:18):
Gonna be interesting.

Speaker 4 (28:18):
Yeah, meeting minutes are where you actually get to see
what was said in the in the board meeting and
before they made the decision, where was everyone's opinions and
this this is going to be one where you're gonna
say who was really entrenched in their opinions and who
was just kind of making a theater act behind it.

Speaker 2 (28:34):
Yeah, exactly, So it'll be I think those come out
in a couple of weeks.

Speaker 4 (28:38):
Right, and usually it's a couple of weeks after the
meeting happens. But yeah, going back to that jobs report,
it came in lower than expect expectations, and then they
revised it. Trump does not like these revisions. He's even
talked about this going back to his election, and before
November happened. There was a big revision in September that

(28:58):
looked like there was a huge job growth that ended
up there wasn't job growth. There was another huge revision
that happened last month, and so he decided he's going
to fire the head of the labor statistics and try
to fix this whole system. It seems more of like
a system problem than who's at the head of it.
But what people don't know also about job support is

(29:20):
they are always revising it because more data comes into
them late, and so they get more and more accurate.
The rolling three month average is much more accurate than
the rolling one month, and then rolling one year is
much much more accurate and gives you a realistic idea,
but it is very slow to the picture. And with
the entire economy relying on these statistics to make their

(29:40):
trading happen and them constantly being revised, it is somewhat
of a concern.

Speaker 2 (29:46):
Yeah, And I mean, you had jobs came in a
seventy two thousand last month and it was expected at
one hundred thousand. You revised the June in may Ones
and they ended up being down two hundred and fifty
eight thousand. So the big jump is what's scared investors
as well. On Friday and then Trump's response too, I'm
going to fire the head.

Speaker 4 (30:03):
And that was not all that Trump was in the
news for that.

Speaker 3 (30:06):
There's a lot of stuff on Friday.

Speaker 4 (30:07):
Yeah, on Friday, he also said August first, this is
my trade deadline, said that for a very long time,
and it happened this time. He did not delay it.
I believe he delayed part of Mexico's, but he still
was pretty hard down on Mexico, on Brazil, on Switzerland,
up to forty one percent for some of those countries.

Speaker 5 (30:24):
I was going to say, I think a lot of
investors are probably projecting that he would delay that potentially.

Speaker 2 (30:28):
Well, yeah, so he delayed Mexico's a couple of days
before August first because they were trying to make a deal.
But these countries that aren't necessarily close to a deal
is the ones that they slapped the higher tariffs on
that are going to be in effect mid next week
on the seventh, And I mean, you got something. It
was if we're in a if the country is in
a trade surplus, they have the higher reciprocal tariffs. If

(30:49):
they're in a deficit, then the terrifts are going to
be around ten to fifteen percent.

Speaker 4 (30:54):
Yeah, it looked like the floor was ten percent up
to forty one percent.

Speaker 3 (30:57):
Correct for some and well and then it Brazil is
fifty percent.

Speaker 4 (31:00):
Yeah, And it's very interesting. You know some countries like
Switzerland who have a trade surplus because of some of
the financialization that happens between US and Switzerland that there's
reports that even if everyone in Switzerland bought a steak,
bought a coke, and bought a Harley Davidson, they still
couldn't close that deficit, you know. I mean it's just
I mean the surplus that they have with the trade
because of how things are set up. So there's bigger

(31:22):
forces at bay between these interconnected countries. I mean, that's
we talk about it all the time. There is a
a really big demand for the dollar and that's what
makes it the global reserve currency. But what we saw
with rates is it plunged and so there was somewhat
of a safe haven trade there.

Speaker 5 (31:44):
And on Friday, with what the US senior drop three.

Speaker 4 (31:46):
Point seven percent, we're at four point two now on
the ten year. That's gonna help the third year Freddie
Mac mortgage come down. It's still at six point seven two,
but after that huge move on Friday, you would expect
that next week you might get a twenty basis point
cut in that and that number there, so you might
have to datepan On later where we can talk a
little bit about the real estate sector, because that's that
sector is getting some steam behind it. I mean, we've

(32:08):
known it's been getting hurt for months and months now,
but it might be forming somewhat of a bottom. So
we'll talk more about that later in the Show's.

Speaker 2 (32:17):
One thing with the week jobs report, the odds that
a rate cut comes in September is now to seventy
from forty percent, and some people think that it could
even be fifty basis points, not just twenty five basis points.
So the likelihood I've seen a ray cut in September
is going up quite a bit.

Speaker 4 (32:32):
Yeah, the overall economy is still somewhat strong, but investors,
we knew going into this earning season that the bar
was super high. Last earning season, the bar was low.
They exceeded that bar. We kept rallying. This time the
bar was high. They met the bar, but the now
subsequent bar that's going to be even higher that investors
are going to expect. A lot of countries are companies

(32:55):
across the border saying we don't think we're going to
hit that bar, and so that future guidance, that disappointing
guidance that came out of companies like Amazon was what
led to some of this selloff. If we talk about
Amazon stock drop seven percent after anotherwise solid quarter EPs,
ernies per share, revenue beat, STRONGAWS resilience is strong across

(33:16):
North of America. Quarter three operating proper guidance though landed
way below expectations, and the culprit rising fulfillment costs and
ongoing investments in same day delivery expansion. So for the
most part, the Trump tariffs are what leading to some
of this, and analysts fear that the higher import duties
on goods flowing through Amazon's ecosystem could squeeze the retail margins.

Speaker 3 (33:39):
Yep, we can see that.

Speaker 2 (33:41):
And then so you had Apple, they had a decent quarter,
and then they also had rebound in China, which has
been struggling over the recent quarters. They were up ten
million iPhones were sold in China during the second quarter.
That's about an eighteen percent market share, only behind Huawei,
which is the leader. Apple shares still drop sixteen percent
year to date, but they're seeing strength in moving forward.

(34:03):
There's a lot more popularity in the iPhone sixteen. Tim
Cook was saying that a lot of people are turning
in their old phones and getting the new ones a
lot more than the previous generation the phones, So they're
excited about the new generation with the AI capabilities. But
Apple is still behind on the AI capabilities, and they're
losing their top engineers to Meta, who's paying towards of

(34:24):
three hundred million dollars to coach these people from Apple
and Google everywhere just.

Speaker 5 (34:30):
As a signing bonus suit, not even as like their salary.

Speaker 2 (34:32):
There's some I think it was because they bought their company,
but there's some people that Meta has now brought on
that there's upwards of over a billion dollars in compensation
crazy to lead their super intelligence.

Speaker 3 (34:45):
Sector.

Speaker 4 (34:46):
And because Apple is the phone, it's a physical product
that brings us AI is going to be you know,
embedded into physical products, the phone as being one of them.
That's considered edge AI as a category. One of the
names that have been hurt because of Apple not performing
as well as Qualcom. Qualcomm is a company that's going
to be a beneficiary of this h EDGAI build out

(35:07):
into phones, into cars, into other technologies that we're all
gonna use, TVs, all kinds of crazy stuff. So that
build out was left out of the earning s report.
You didn't hear any super cycle language, and so you
really needed that. We're coming up on an enner break.
But Apple is still dealing with tariffs. Thirty five percent
tariff on Canada led to components like aluminum and chips ballooning.

(35:31):
So at the end of the day, those margins are
continuing to get squeezed until you start seeing some type
of supercycle. That stock is going to be trying to
just come back from its all time lows. So when
we come back where you have a segment with Jonathan
Sabilia and we'll talk a little bit about a state planning.
Thank you for joining.

Speaker 2 (35:49):
Us, Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. We got
Jonathan Sibilia on this segment. He's our state planner in
house and he owns Edward Law firm. But first I
want to mention we have a sem and are coming
up on September twenty sixth, eleven thirty to two pm.

Speaker 3 (36:03):
Over at Lapaloma Country Club.

Speaker 2 (36:05):
We will be providing lunch and what we will be
talking about is our financial planning process. We talk about
it all the time on this radio show, and we
want to set up this in person seminar to make
it more interactive, to make it more question oriented. We
were going to max it out at fifty people, and
so just give us a call if you want to join,
or give us shoot us an email. We will have
it up on our website in the next week so

(36:26):
you can sign up there through event bright. But what
this is going to cover is going to cover everything
that we do in the financial plan So if you're
hesitant to set up a meeting but you've been thinking
about it, but you don't know if you wanted to
do the whole process that we talk about on the show,
then this gives you a good highlight to what we
do in detail. When you do set up the meeting
and there's no strings attached, Come enjoy lunch, come talk
to us, come ask us any questions that you have.

(36:48):
We love doing it. And we got a lot of
ideas with the financial plan. There's always making it more interactive,
so it's a great time. This is going to be
a new thing that we're going to try to do
every single quarter.

Speaker 3 (36:58):
Right correct. This is going to be a one.

Speaker 2 (37:00):
So if you do miss this boat or you can't
make it on the twenty six, then we're gonna do
a next quarter, and we're gonna do the quarter after that,
and if we start seeing that we need to do more,
we'll do it every month. This is a quicker one,
it's a lunchtime one, and it's something we think that
could provide a lot of benefit because we see a
lot of benefits from when we meet with people in
the office doing.

Speaker 3 (37:18):
The financial plan.

Speaker 2 (37:20):
But before we go, U s a bashing, y'all always
got to do your disclosures and disclaimer. This show is
sponsored by the Green Brick Financial Group and you can
listen on seven ninety Canistee or iHeartRadio. The show discusses
different investments, products and strategies, and every product and strategy
have some type of an inherent risk, and we strongly
encourage our listeners to properly understand the risk to determine
whether to buy, sell or hold. The show has been

(37:40):
on air for over thirty years. A green Brick Financial
Group is registered with the SEC visitor a website at
green Brick Financial dot com.

Speaker 5 (37:46):
For some more information, you could always give us Always
give us a call it five two zero five four
four four nine zero nine. If you ever want a
question answered on air, ask us there Jonathan Sabilia, our
estate planner here in house. Welcome.

Speaker 3 (37:59):
Hey, how's it going Pretty good?

Speaker 5 (38:00):
Pretty good, It's going good.

Speaker 4 (38:02):
There's been some obviously a lot of new laws that
have changed with the Big Beautiful Bill, So we want
to talk a little bit about the Obviously, the easiest
one is the estate limit that you're allowed to give
has gone up. So what's that number now and what
does it mean?

Speaker 6 (38:20):
So, uh, basically what's gonna end up happening now is
the estate tax number was supposed to sunset at one
one twenty twenty six. Now they just made it permanent.
So initially, before twenty seventeen, it was five million dollars
per person, so each person could exclude up to five
million dollars from their estate without being subject to state tax.

(38:43):
During the Trump administration, it got bumped up to about
eleven million, and due to inflation it got up to
about thirteen point nine. This new bill codified it permanently,
so now everybody has about thirteen point nine, subject to
go up to about fifteen million in twenty twenty six,
and it'll increase due to inflation from there on out,
but it will be permanent. So everybody, if you have

(39:05):
less than thirty million dollars in your estate, you don't
have to worry about getting subject to an estate tax.

Speaker 4 (39:11):
And I think that's important for people to note because
sometimes you'll hear I can only give I think the
limit right now is nineteen thousand before you don't have
to report the gifting, and so people will think, I
can't gift more than nineteen thousand without incurring taxes or
they have to pay taxes. Explain why that's not the case.

Speaker 6 (39:32):
You can give away currently up to thirteen a little
over thirteen million dollars all in one shot without incurring
any sort of tax. We say nineteen thousand, because once
you go over that nineteen thousand dollars mark, you should
be filing what's called a Form seven O nine. Seven
O nine is basically disclosure to the irs that says here,

(39:53):
I gifted this amount, keep it for your records. It
basically what happens, and the reason you do it is
so so we can begin the statute statute of limitations,
and then the irs is three years the challenge, and
if they don't challenge within three years, then.

Speaker 3 (40:07):
The gift is good.

Speaker 6 (40:08):
Right, So if it is over nineteen thousand and believe
it or not, and I've talked attorneys about this, that
includes a lot of things, gifts for Christmas, Birthday gifts,
cash gifts. If you give somebody for tuition but you
don't pay the school directly, that's considered a gift as well.
But if you want, I probably recommend paying the tuition

(40:28):
directly because then that gets automatically excluded. But you're allowed
to give nineteen thousand dollars per person. Now, if you've
got two kids and you're married, it's thirty eight thousand
dollars per spouse, So you can give one kid thirty
eight and the other kid thirty eight without having the file
that's seven or nine.

Speaker 4 (40:45):
So if you give one hundred thousand away in your
single and you have nineteen thousand excluded, eighty one thousand
is deducted. From that thirteen point nine that I'm allowed
to give without incurring that estate taxically.

Speaker 6 (40:57):
But eighty one thousand dollars from thirteen million dollars. You're
going to chip away quite slowly at that, but it's
a great way of getting it out of your state.

Speaker 3 (41:05):
There are things that we can do.

Speaker 6 (41:06):
So if you're over that number, that fourteen million dollar number,
what's I got a great idea? Well, it's not always
a great idea, but one thing that you can do,
it's just a technique, is by a life insurance policy
eighteen thousand dollars per year, nineteen thousand dollars per year
per kid for the premiums on that life insurance policy,

(41:26):
and then you pass away. That money could be used
to pay any sort of a state tax, or you
could put inside of a trust and it's just extra
money for the kids, and you're dwindling down your estate.

Speaker 4 (41:36):
That's part of that kind of Gerber life if you
ever heard of them, the million dollar baby policies, where
you start them when they're young, because insurance is most
cheap on someone when they're young, so it can be
a pseudo gifting account. And that kind of segues us
into our other questions of we have a lot of
clients who want to set up grandkids accounts or their
kids with some type of education or even just legacy

(41:59):
account that they can use in the future. So obviously
some believe they need a trust to do so. Some
just believe that they could do a UTMA five twenty nine.
Some just do a joint account and put a TOD
beneficiary on it. What are some of the pros and
cons of doing it the various different ways, and what
do you see.

Speaker 6 (42:14):
A five to twenty nine plan not always a bad idea.
There's tax benefits, especially with the as long as the
money's used for school purposes.

Speaker 5 (42:23):
Have you seen the new provisions that got enacted with
the new bill? I have got within the five two nine,
I think that you are able to use them through
kindergarten through twelfth grade now as well, well you can,
it's just.

Speaker 2 (42:33):
More money you've always been able to. Now you can
use up to twenty thousand dollars for k through twelve
and then there's more provisions that.

Speaker 5 (42:40):
You could use trade souls, certification, certification exams. It opened
the door a little bit more to what we could
use the money on.

Speaker 6 (42:46):
Very nice and that's something that I'll look more into.
You know, I having five twenty nine plans aren't a
big part of my field. I do have a lot
of clients that do it. And when you generate large
amounts of money into the five twenty nine plan, I
tend to tell the client to go speak to the
custodian because, hypothetically someone dies, how do we create some
sort of beneficiary designation on there? And it's typically whoever

(43:09):
the custodian is of that five twenty nine plan is,
they'll give you the rules and how that type of
thing is handled.

Speaker 4 (43:15):
So with the trust account versus a joint account and
tod what what do you see? Is there pros and cons?

Speaker 6 (43:21):
Well, you know, if you have a trust account, it
basically the big thing is how's that money being managed?

Speaker 1 (43:28):
Right?

Speaker 6 (43:29):
I don't care how it gets to the beneficiary. I
typically cared. I don't want to sitting there in a
point zero zero one percent bank account generating a collecting
done right.

Speaker 4 (43:39):
Well, imagine both are being managed, but just in terms
of that, as that actual transfer of assets, what are
the differences between the two.

Speaker 6 (43:48):
Well, the difference so hypothetically did a custodian account and
you have kids that are three or four years old,
you set up a custodian account and then once they
turn eighteen, the money goes directly to them. But the problem,
and that's a form of a try trust, and the
problem there is the kids get it at eighteen, then
they can do whatever they want, whatever they want, so
there's no stipulations on that. I mean, you can't set
up an educational trust. I have a lot of many

(44:10):
clients who do educational trusts. You fund it and you
put stipulations inside the trust that says they can use
it for paying a books, paying books, paying tuition, what
have you, anything that's educational related that if they don't
go to school. We could also put provisions in there
that says, all right, well, you know maybe going to

(44:30):
college or some sort of secondary school is not in
the in the books. So what we can do is
if you want to invest into a business, start a business,
you know, within at a certain age range, you can
take some of that money out and you know, apply
to opening up a business.

Speaker 5 (44:46):
That's something that you do quite often is an incentive
based trust.

Speaker 6 (44:49):
Incentive based That's exactly it.

Speaker 4 (44:53):
So what are one of the situations you would say, no,
you don't need a trust. Just do a proper will,
do your power of attorneys on health and financial and
get make sure you get all your tod and beneficials
on all your accounts.

Speaker 6 (45:07):
I have a lot of clients that they'll come in, Hey,
I need a will, I need some powers of attorney,
and I or do I need a trust? Sometimes and
many times, you know, obviously each one costs more. Right,
just the will and some powers of attorney, that's you know,
my cheapest. Then you know, powers of attorney, will with

(45:29):
beneficiary needs a little bit more expensive than a trust.

Speaker 3 (45:32):
Is a lot more expensive.

Speaker 6 (45:33):
Okay, if I have a client that has one kid
and a married couple, kids much younger than you know,
much younger obviously can to outlive the parents half the time,
I just told them, let's just do some powers of attorney,
a beneficiary deed, no will, and just put TODs on everything.
Because the will is just basically there to be a

(45:55):
safety net. But if you have one child, by operation
of law, by statute there to handle anything any anyways.
And if we're going to do a will, they're still
going to go to probate. So in the probate process,
is exactly the same as an informal process, not a
formal process where they just file some documents with the
county they get pointed personal representative. But that's only in
the worst case scenario. Typically, if you have TODs on everything,

(46:19):
if you have a beneficiary deed and you have your
powers of attorney, your set and.

Speaker 4 (46:24):
So for those who don't know, beneficiary d is something
you put on your house. You can file with your
county assessor's office to get that as well as with
the TOD it's a transfer on death, so you put
that on a non retirement account, so you can actually
add a beneficiary to those accounts.

Speaker 2 (46:38):
Correct, And then a POD is the same thing, but
for a bank account. For whatever reason, they have different
names for it, and that's payable on death. Same idea
as a TOD though.

Speaker 4 (46:47):
Anything else that you think most people aren't taking advantage
of right now coming up on the end of the
segment here.

Speaker 6 (46:53):
Well, at the end of the day, it's always good
idea to review your your estate plan, whether it's with
a will, whether it's a trust, or if you have nothing,
you need to at least sit down take a look
at it because it's really important. There could be provisions there.
He did not realize. There could be tax laws that change,
there could be statutes that change here in Arizona that

(47:13):
may affect how things are handled. So it's always a
good idea sit down, maybe sit down with an attorney,
review it, make sure and make sure everybody's taken care of,
and so you can have a peace of mind moving forward.

Speaker 3 (47:26):
All right, thank you.

Speaker 4 (47:27):
Let's see on the other side of the break.

Speaker 2 (47:29):
Welcome back to the second hour, the Money Matter Show.
I want to thank Jonathan Sabillia of Edward Law Firm
coming on for the last segment of the last hour.
He's our state attorney that we work with in our
office here and he's great. It's great to work with
an attorney who with our clients and just have everything
kind of work together. He offers free consultation. So if
you're interested in looking at your estate plan, your will,

(47:50):
if you need to talk about anything like that, give
us a call and we will give you his information,
or send us an email and we will give you
his contact information. For those of you just tuning in,
the Dow is down almost three percent last week. The
SMP was down two point three percent. The Nasdaq was
down two point two percent, that Russell two thousand was
down four percent, and the RSP was down three point
three percent, So we came off all time highs. We

(48:11):
had a strong week to begin with and ended down
and it hard on Friday. We were down about one
and a half percent on the SMP and that's all
because of a lot of news with the tear US,
with just foreign policy talk, with the jobs report coming
in week, with the Fed keeping rates steady, its just
saw a lot of uncertainty in the next couple of months,
and investors don't like uncertainty, So we'll see what goes

(48:36):
on in the next month. That it did come, the
Fed opportunity to cut rates in September did jump from
forty percent to seventy five percent, so we will see.

Speaker 3 (48:45):
But for those of you just tuning in, we talked
about it last hour.

Speaker 2 (48:48):
We were holding a seminar Atlapoloma on September twenty sixth
from eleven thirty to two pm. It's going to be
a lunch. We're going to talk about our financial plan.
It's going to be an interactive seminar. We're keeping it
the fifty people max, so we can ask questions it's
more interactive in the sense that we're going to show
you what we do with our financial plan if you
were to come in and meet, but it's less formal.

(49:10):
If you were ever thinking you want to come in,
but you don't want to go through the whole process
just yet, you're skeptical, you're unsure. If you want to
do the whole process, then come to this lunch and
we'll show you what we do. We can ask answer
any questions you have. You get a good lunch, and
you get to meet us and talk to us about
our process and our financial planning program that we've been
seeing a lot of benefit from with our clients.

Speaker 3 (49:30):
Yeah, it's a.

Speaker 4 (49:30):
Great opportunity right now. It's also great opportunity to give
us a call and five two zero five four four
four nine zero nine get that financial planning meeting booked.
During summer, we do have some more availability than we
will going into the fall and winter time when the
snowbirds start filling the city of Tucson back up. This week,
we had gold up twenty four dollars to three three

(49:50):
hundred and sixty dollars an ounce. Oil was up two
dollars sixty seven dollars a barrel, and the ten year
failed to four point two percent, the two years at
three point seven, so we're doing good on all sides.

Speaker 2 (50:00):
There.

Speaker 4 (50:01):
Gold is that safe haven trade that we really saw
pick up because of Also, we didn't talk about this yet.
Kind of a big story. Trump decided to move two
nuclear submarines into position, whatever position means. But that's all
coming off of a social media dispute. I mean, it's
funny that we have world leaders having disputes on social media.

(50:22):
But the old president of Russia apparently was not happy
with Trump's ultimatums, and he tweeted out saying, well, whatever
whatever he whatever social media he was on that he
did this, he was okay, so said that you don't
you can't talk to us like this and don't forget

(50:44):
that you're not that powerful. And basically, Trump, because of
his comments, move these machine new submarines into position. And
then the president, the old president of Russia, responded, well,
if I can make you skittish this much, and maybe
you're not as formidable as you think you are. So
there's all this tension between Russia because Trump wants to

(51:05):
rush a Ukraine war to end in the next two weeks.
He said that on Monday, So I guess we're only
gonna be one week away from that.

Speaker 2 (51:11):
So yeah, And that's what that old president was saying, saying,
all these ultimatums that you're giving Russia, remember that we aren't,
he said. He said, remember we're not Israel and not Iran,
and every ultimatum you give us is an act towards war. Yeah,
not between US and Ukraine, between US and the US.

Speaker 5 (51:28):
What he was saying, we're recording this on Friday, so
we hope that no more news comes out on this
over the weekend.

Speaker 4 (51:33):
Yeah, I mean, we don't think that's why the markets
sold off. There was a host of other reasons, obviously
because the jobs are poor at the terriffs, but obviously
just more uncertainty. And we saw that with the gold trade.
It picked up on Friday. It was really just flat
on the week, almost down, and then picked up good
on Friday. The thing that did not pick up, I
mean bitcoin, you're gonna call it a safe Hey have
an asset, it's an inflation hedge, it's a risk asset.

(51:55):
Who knows what it is. But right now it's down.
On the week, it was about five percent lower and
it's at one hundred thirteen thousand per bitcoin. It's had
a wild ride. Other cryptocurrencies have had also even more
wilder rides in the past two months, companies like Ripple,
who applied for a bank charter, which would be interesting.
We know stable coin like issuer Circle IPO last month

(52:17):
and that stock went crazy. But a lot of these
risk assets are trading lower, and they traded a big
time lower on Friday because of just even though you
have lower rates, you know, we were talking about it.
Lower rate's going to help small caps, but if you
have uncertainty, that doesn't help anyone.

Speaker 1 (52:32):
Right.

Speaker 5 (52:33):
What about copper this week, I mean that that was
a dramatic.

Speaker 4 (52:36):
Talk about uncertainty there in that space.

Speaker 5 (52:38):
Dramatic move in a commodity. You typically don't see these
types of moves within commodities. Copper fell twenty three percent
this week.

Speaker 4 (52:45):
You don't typically see it because it was the biggest
drop ever in the history of copper.

Speaker 5 (52:49):
That's amazing.

Speaker 2 (52:50):
Trump slapped terrorists on copper imports and that dropped the
US copper prices.

Speaker 5 (52:56):
So he had put the tariff on copper at fifty percent,
which sense copper prices skyrocketing. They increased dramatically overnights, and
then he comes out and says that they are going
to exclude refined copper, which makes up a majority of
the copper market. Upon that news tumbles twenty percent.

Speaker 4 (53:15):
Yeah, I know, you know, I was coming back from
Lake Roosevelt this week and saw FCX, you know, Freeport,
and it's got We were looking at it. How much
do we domestically consume from domestic producers and these terroriffs.
We could see that there was some increase that it's
going to have for the domestic producers, but at the

(53:37):
end of the day, it doesn't warrant some of the
huge increases that you see in some of those stocks.
Everything was very lofty heading into this week. Everything had
to perform well. Not a lot of things did. But
if we can't take a moment moment and talk about
what did really really well was Microsoft and met a first.
Microsoft stock rows five percent on the back of their earnings,
and it's because they had a strong beat across the

(53:58):
board with earnings per shait, with revenue driven largely by
the relentless Azure growth and demand for Copilot. Those who
don't know Copilot is that new thing you're starting to
see on your Excel docs or or your word docs
or you know, your power points. It allows you, yeah,
in your outlook. So these are allows you to have

(54:20):
AI capabilities in the programs that they already have out there,
whereas a Zure is their kind of cloud based system.
Companies want to use AI, you know, they want to
use their own language models, but they don't have the
capacity to build them out, so they rent cloud space. Basically,
it's renting the capacity to use Microsoft's computers and that's

(54:44):
been growing very big for them as well. AAI infrastructure
dominance is why they are so much of a cat
had so much of a catalyst this week. The demand
still is outpacing in that cloud capacity, and investors took
this as a moat wide widening signal. At the end
of the day, they own a lot of open AI.

(55:06):
The you know, ten years down the road, will they
still be as powerful as open ai? Who knows, maybe
open a it becomes more valuable than Microsoft. And that's
the question is what is the actual independence that open
ai has because Microsoft has such a large investment, But
every time a new subscriber goes on the open AI,

(55:26):
Microsoft benefits and so even though they have a really
really high value is valuation right now they hit it
even new all time highs.

Speaker 5 (55:34):
Well, think about how, you know, Beck, when we were
in school and you had a Microsoft Office, you ran
everything through Microsoft Office. All these colleges are going to
have software, you know, all these licenses and they're gonna
start implementing the AI agents or whatever artificial intelligence within
these platforms. That's going to be very beneficial.

Speaker 4 (55:50):
And we talk about this all the time with the colleges.
It's a very big thing to get a kid young
because we were giving Chromebooks when you're in high school
and then you develop that way of using those tools.
I mean, some people eventually get an Apple, so they'll go
to Apple and all that. But I mean if you
you can get almost people, that's why Amazon gives deals
to college kids, right, you can get them young and

(56:11):
then they won't change the services that they use. And
so yeah, the some schools are moving away from Chrome.
We saw University of Arizona do that recently, and so
that's right. And so all these schools where they go
and how which which companies they partner with their AI
capabilities is going to be an interesting play out as well.

(56:32):
Meta was the other company doing really well this week,
and not to mention though, we should say Microsoft kind
of sold off into the end of the week. It's
still ended up positive as about one percent higher, but
gave up a lot of those gains. The company that
didn't really give up much gains was Meta. The stock
exploded higher twelve percent after earnings, and for good reason.
They crushed quarter to expectations and lit the fire. What

(56:53):
lit the fire was Zuckerberg's guidance on AI integration and monetization.
We know Zuckerberg has been on a spending spree acquiring
the top talent. Really been like a general manager of
an NFL squad, probably more so an NBA squad, just
paying absurd amount of money to get these people to
get them the best talent on his squad. The Threads
is a new kind of social media platform that Meta

(57:15):
is building out. I've never really used it, but apparently
it's growing traction and it's gonna be the competition to
what X is right now.

Speaker 2 (57:21):
Yeah, it's actually getting in a lot of traction and
it's active daily users is catching up to X quite quickly.

Speaker 5 (57:27):
Have you used it?

Speaker 3 (57:28):
I haven't used it. I don't use so I just
used it.

Speaker 4 (57:32):
And another part of Meta that's doing really well is
they're reels. It's chewing up into TikTok's ad time and
that's helping I mean, AI is helping Meta sell more ads.
And that's what analysts saw, it's what investors saw, and
they were like, Holy cow, this is this is big
because when you can make the the a the ad,
go after the consumer with better precision, and make sure

(57:54):
that the ad dollar is more cost efficient for the
business that's paying for it, you're gonna have more businesses
flocked to your place to advertise their product.

Speaker 5 (58:01):
What's the Christmas gift of the year.

Speaker 4 (58:04):
I still think it's the ray band metaglasses with you.

Speaker 2 (58:06):
They're pretty cool. I used them the other day, did
you they actually yeah, I don't. I mean I don't
have the video and everything like that, but I had.
They played the music on it. It was pretty nice.

Speaker 5 (58:14):
Yeah, it is pretty cool. Definitely gotta try those out.

Speaker 4 (58:17):
Yeah, I mean if they stay out around three hundred dollars,
I was looking more deeply in it don't have great
battery life, I mean it's like four hours, and I
was gonna buy them for my trip to go into Germany.
But they don't have German language capabilities yet.

Speaker 1 (58:29):
Do you use so?

Speaker 4 (58:29):
I figured that was pretty pointless.

Speaker 5 (58:31):
So do you think that they'll be able to use
or monetize the data that they get in through your eyewear?
Are they recording absolutely everything?

Speaker 3 (58:39):
I don't.

Speaker 4 (58:40):
The only problem I have is they would have to
have some type of server inside the glasses that uploads
that data to a cloud.

Speaker 5 (58:47):
You don't think they have them.

Speaker 4 (58:48):
Maybe they do, Maybe they do.

Speaker 2 (58:50):
They're keeping it quiet, yeah, yeah, keep it on a
tech We have a big I PO last week which
is keeping consistent with the last couple. It was called
Figma and they're a software company. They were iPod at
thirty three dollars per share on Thursday, they began public
trading at eighty five dollars and end of the day
that day at one hundred and fifteen dollars a share.
The value is a company about sixty six billion dollars

(59:11):
at that point sixty eight billion dollars. And it's followed
in Chime Circle, COREWEF and a couple tech health companies
Hinge Health and Omata Health that all IPO this year
and they've all done well there is reminiscence of a
few years ago when an IPO happened and they just
double right away. A lot of attraction to these tech companies.

(59:31):
The interesting thing about Figma is at Adobe try to
buy them in twenty twenty two, try to buy it
for twenty billion dollars in the UK regulator shut it
down saying it's not fair and it's going to be
monopolized and everything like that. So they cut out the
deal and now Adobe's watching this happen. So they were right,
this good company, software data company.

Speaker 5 (59:50):
It's like I was trying to figure out what it
was on through their website. It seems like an Adobe.

Speaker 2 (59:55):
Yeah, so a web based software that allows people to
collaborate like drawing a blank Google Google Doc.

Speaker 4 (01:00:00):
Yeah, Google Docs, and that's what they call. It's like
a Google Docs for coders.

Speaker 3 (01:00:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:00:04):
Having companies and stuff. I mean you got Google, Microsoft, Netflix,
New for all customers. And there's companies that are expended
more than they got a thousand clients, or more than
a thousand clients that pay more than one hundred grand
a year.

Speaker 3 (01:00:14):
But again use this product.

Speaker 4 (01:00:16):
Adobe bought this company valued at twenty billion, that's what
they ipo'ed at three.

Speaker 2 (01:00:20):
Years ago to so they're buying at a premium three
years right, they were trying to at.

Speaker 4 (01:00:23):
Least and now because they didn't have the bill, they
didn't weren't able to buy them. They're trying to build
out their own fig like competitor, and that's kind of
why Adobe has fallen behind. They're not having that AI capability.
But yeah, I mean, if you're going to be bought
out for twenty billion a couple of years ago, maybe
you're valued at forty billion now. But this company got
to really high valuate valuations really quick, so triple we're

(01:00:46):
seeing right now. Yeah, the IPO market's very hot, maybe
for good reason. I mean, these names are very attractive
companies like Quarterweave. We just found out NA Video owns
I think sixty seven percent of their investment portfolio into Coreweave,
and you know, companies can have investment before it's just
like anyone else can. And they had some other names
that were very interesting too, like apl D.

Speaker 5 (01:01:06):
Applied Digital is one that I've been taking a look
at because in Video has a stake in them, and
they just have they got a couple of contracts with
Core Weave, which again in Video, is a big shareholder
in and as more and more of these contracts are
you know, given to Applied Digital, if and Video still
remains a shareholder, that stock's going to catch a bid.

Speaker 3 (01:01:24):
Right well.

Speaker 4 (01:01:25):
We also saw again like I talked about, with Bigcoin
selling off, the entire crypto industry saw a little bit
of a hit.

Speaker 5 (01:01:32):
I got something, did you get? Go ahead? Who's the
richest man in Arizona?

Speaker 3 (01:01:37):
Garcia?

Speaker 5 (01:01:37):
Ernie Garcia. Way to go, Carvana. That's a hot stock
this last year.

Speaker 3 (01:01:41):
What's that trading right?

Speaker 5 (01:01:42):
Obviously, hey, four hundred dollars a share. This week it's
back down about three hundred and seventy. But I think
last year is trading around four dollars a share, which is.

Speaker 3 (01:01:49):
Just yeah, I mean yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:01:50):
And then three years ago is trading at three eighty
a share. So it's been on a huge roller coaster.

Speaker 5 (01:01:54):
The trailing pe or sorry Ford Pe seventy seven right now,
it's very very expensive stock, especially for an auto dealer.
And I was trying to figure out why it's priced
this way, and I think it's because it's not You
can't look at this company as just an auto dealer.
It's also a fintech company, financial technology company. The way
that they are making so much money and so it's

(01:02:16):
looking so good on their books because if you take
a look at Carvana's books compared to another traditional car dealer,
that car dealer is a dinosaur. And it's because of
the sheer volume that Carvana has been able to.

Speaker 1 (01:02:27):
Do.

Speaker 5 (01:02:28):
They're selling an absurd amount of cards each and every day.
And while the back end, you know, if you go
to a car dealer, you're not gonna make They don't
make their money on the sticker price. They make their
money on the financing end of it. On the back end,
they're going to sell you up on warranties and sell
you up give you higher rates. Well, Carvana is doing
the same thing, but it's a one price. They just

(01:02:49):
give you the price straight up front. It's up to
you if you want to take it or not. There's
no negotiation. Some consumers are starting to see that and say,
I'd rather use I'd rather buy and purchase a card
through that that way, rather than having go sit through,
you know, and negotiate with the salesman.

Speaker 3 (01:03:05):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:03:05):
Yeah, And I think used car industry has been doing
really well lately too. At the high rates and everything,
people get cheaper cars.

Speaker 5 (01:03:11):
I was gonna say it was kind of an interest
rate play this week to some extents, because as again,
if Carvana is gonna benefit off of again sheer volume,
and if interest rates keep coming down, I can only
see the volume increasing.

Speaker 4 (01:03:23):
Gold do my combase report now, yeah? Sorry, okay, it
dropped twenty percent overall this week, but it dropped ten
percent on the back of the earnings. They gave soft
guidance for quarter three. A lot of invests. The analysts
thought that the staking the custody institutional use would lead
to more entrenchment in their volume and not be so

(01:03:44):
tied between bitcoin's price appreciation and declinent but that did
not happen. All those areas slowed and so when transaction
income comes down, that company is gonna come down. And
because of that soft guidance as well, they led twenty
percent down on the week. That's a very tough way
to invest in the crypto industry. I hear a lot
of people say, I want to take advantage of this

(01:04:05):
booming cryptocurrency space, let's invest in coin. I personally, I
don't love it. It's like if you're like saying I
love the stock market. Well, you can invest in the
Nasdaq exchange. That's that's out there. It doesn't keep up
with the NASDAK, right, so the thing that the exchange
allows you to buy is much more profitable than the

(01:04:26):
exchange itself. You can the New York stocks, It is
the same thing. So just because coinbase sells cryptocurrencies, NASDAK
sells stocks. You know, it's it's the same thing.

Speaker 5 (01:04:36):
A one point coin Base seemed to be almost a
trading proxy to bitcoin, and that's not what it should be.

Speaker 4 (01:04:41):
Right, And even micro strategy too, it's a it's something
that gets hit hard because it seems like a leverage play,
but it's it's not always moving one to one with bitcoin.
If you want a true leverage play, there's things out
there like bit you like bit x that can actually
aim to give you that two x exposure through options
and derivatives and things of that nature. But trying to

(01:05:04):
use these alternative plays on bitcoin don't always work in
the long run. They can work in the short run,
but in the long run it can be costly.

Speaker 2 (01:05:15):
Well disclosure, we know that personally, we have invested in
those before and we help them a little too. Long
and we're learning that way. So from personal experience, a
lot of that.

Speaker 4 (01:05:23):
Yeah, I mean I've made the most money just buying bitcoin,
just doing simple stuff, not trying to play the games
of doing all the crazy stuff, and sometimes having just
a disciplined investment philosophy, buying over time, not getting freaked
out with drops, not getting overly excited with gains, and
just staying discipline. That's the name of game of any investor.

Speaker 2 (01:05:45):
Well, yeah, I mean it's investing is a long, long
term game. Trading is a quick term game, and that's
more short term oriented, and that's when you buy these
That's usually when you look to buy these leverage products
because you're going to get in and out of them.
You're not trying to hold something that's two times three
times leveraged for a long term. It's just not something
you're gonna do because there this whip saw too much.
So it's a trading mechanism that can be beneficial if

(01:06:06):
you know how to do it, but they are very
risky and if you're looking to get in the sector
like Todd you're saying, is the one times just buying
the actual putting the money into the actual asset is.

Speaker 3 (01:06:16):
The way to do it for the long term.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
If you want to mess around with short term, then
look to do leverage if you understand the risks that
come with it.

Speaker 4 (01:06:24):
You know, there's one product that's doing even worse than
than Apple's Vision pros. It's the COVID RSV combo shot,
and there's the demand just doesn't seem to being there.

Speaker 1 (01:06:36):
You know.

Speaker 4 (01:06:37):
The Maderno came out with this thinking it was gonna
be something that everyone was gonna line up about the
door for, because why wouldn't you also want your RSV
with your COVID shot. Well, the weaker demand led to
the stock falling seven percent. Wait, if you throw some
glue tight in there or something that now we're talking,
if we just get one shot for everything, maybe we're good. Yeah,
the stock fell seven percent. They beat quarter two numbers,

(01:06:58):
but the RUG was pulling in their items, lowered its
entire four year twenty five revenue forecasts, and now it's
just very speculative the way it's priced.

Speaker 3 (01:07:06):
Yeah, I mean, Trump is coming after these drug companies too.

Speaker 2 (01:07:08):
He said he's given them sixty days to take steps
in cutting the US drug prices, to do the whole
most favored nation policy. He's trying to bring back where
you're making the US companies sell their drugs at the
cheapest cost another country would sell it at, so they're
trying to make it. They're trying to get these drug
costs way down, which is good for the consumer. It's

(01:07:33):
the pharma companies are obviously cut pushing back because it's
going to cut into their profit margin. They're saying they're
not going to have money to do their research. Is
highly it's very expensive to do the research, and a
lot of them fail, so they bank on making one
work and then they'll.

Speaker 3 (01:07:46):
Cover the cost of the failures.

Speaker 2 (01:07:49):
It's it is the pharma companies not wanting to give
it the margin, and the pharma companies have some of
the largest margins you'll see upheards a thirty percent.

Speaker 5 (01:07:56):
But it's also because of all the tremendous amount of
money that they have to pour into R and D beforehand.
So like I kind of want to play Devil's advocate
and say, yeah, that's a good thing for the consumer
because of the lower prices, But at the end of
the day, is it good for innovation?

Speaker 2 (01:08:10):
Well, and that's what the pharma companies and the critics
are saying it's not good for innovation because you're gonna
make them not have as much free cash to just
say screw it, we're gonna try this. We're gonna try that,
see what sticks, see what works. We have the ability
to have five fail if one works, because we'll make
the money on the working one. But you're not gonna
have that ability anymore. If that is the case overall,

(01:08:31):
and then they're gonna also there's also the critics are
saying that Pfizer, for example, will raise their prices in
the other countries to make it say okay, that's the
lowest price. Now we're gonna charge the US. It's all higher.
They're charging all higher everywhere. It's an interesting thing. I mean, overall,
it's probably for the better for a lot of the
people on Medicare and medicaid iss who they're aiming for,

(01:08:53):
and that'll help them a lot. And they're talking about
not being able to afford drug prices they're astronomical, and
then the government comes in and does it. Anyways, we're
talking last week about uh that what the EpiPen or
the insulin shot. Yeah, think the EpiPen where the guy
who invented it or monetized. It was making a ton
of money, and they came in and told them, Nah,
you can't do that, you're making too much.

Speaker 3 (01:09:14):
Government always does that.

Speaker 4 (01:09:15):
Yeah, well we saw that with Nova. We're seeing that
with the semi glut sides. They're going to force an
actual price minimum price because it's too good of a
drug for people not to have it.

Speaker 1 (01:09:25):
You know.

Speaker 4 (01:09:25):
Let's be real, though, healthcare companies, they spend a lot
of money on R and D, but at the end
of the day, they're raking in much more profits than
their R and D. Is you cut the prophiteed you percent?
There's so much more than what I said.

Speaker 3 (01:09:34):
Their profit margins are like some of the highest. Yeah,
the industry. They're upwoards of thirty percent.

Speaker 2 (01:09:37):
They'll be they made up five made one hundred billion
dollars on the COVID vaccine in like twenty twenty, twenty
twenty one. They're twenty twenty one and twenty two.

Speaker 5 (01:09:46):
Yeah, I mean.

Speaker 4 (01:09:46):
There's with that. You could say a lot of things.
But Novo got hit hard this week. I mean, I
think it was down over twenty five percent. It was
down twenty percent one day to seven percent the next day,
and I think it was another five percent on the
day after that.

Speaker 2 (01:10:01):
Yeah, Novo got hit hard. Well, Novo first got hit
hard because of I think it was bad earnings, and
then the next day it came out Trump is coming
after these farmer companies, So it just got double whammy
right away.

Speaker 4 (01:10:12):
Eli Lilly got hit hard. I mean, Healthcare actually bounced up,
and Novo had a good day, uh, somewhat on Friday,
Eli Lilly, every little Healthcare had a somewhat good day
on Friday. And you know what else had a good
day was the housing sector. A lot of that had
to do with rates coming down, and if you have
lower rates, maybe more buys are going to happen. But

(01:10:32):
right now there's still not a lot of volume happening
in new sales.

Speaker 3 (01:10:36):
Just yet.

Speaker 5 (01:10:37):
Another interest rates sensitive play that worked out this week
was First Solar. They also reported earnings on Friday, but
I believe that they finished the day up about seven percent.
As interest rates get lower.

Speaker 2 (01:10:48):
For solar, it gets cheaper, it does, and that's because
a lot of people go and fund through loans with
the solar. Yeah, the report, Yeah, First Solo has had
a roller coach every year though.

Speaker 4 (01:10:58):
Yeah, I mean the reddits they have credits, do they not? Oh,
they do because they're American, but everyone else doesn't.

Speaker 1 (01:11:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:11:04):
Yeah, it's a tough one.

Speaker 5 (01:11:05):
For that stocks, Doctor Bean. I will say back on
the stable coins, what did PayPal do this week? Well
that yeah, yeah, So if we'll.

Speaker 4 (01:11:13):
Talk a little bit on on the other side of
the break because we're coming up on it. But yeah,
I mean there's a lot of technology. Dave always talks
about what is the actual technology, technology that's capable you
can do with stable coins that's relevant to Americans. Well,
we'll talk about it on the other side of the break.
Thank you for everyone listening to The Money Matters Show. Obviously,
please give us a call at five two zero five
four four four nine zero nine. If you ever have

(01:11:34):
questions you want to ask on this show, or if
you just want to set up that free financial planning meeting,
you can do it. Also sign up for that interactive
financial planning seminar. We're going to have it on September
twenty six at eleven thirty to two. You can go
to our website for more information. We'll have that up
on Monday morning. Thank you, We'll be right back. Welcome
back to the Money Matter show. My name is Todd Glick.
I'm here with Dylan Greenberg and Sebastian Bors. David Sherwood

(01:11:57):
is up north hanging out with his wife on is
much deserve anniversary.

Speaker 5 (01:12:03):
Love the guy.

Speaker 4 (01:12:03):
He's probably in his tesla going to a hike right now,
and the Dean is enjoying the much deserved vacation as well.
This month is the end of the month, so we
should do some monthly reports. The Dow was down one
point one percent, the S and P five hundred was
actually up fifty basis points, and the Nasdaq was up
one point four percent. But back to the negatives, the

(01:12:23):
small cap Russell two thousand was down forty basis points
and the equal weight it was down just a ten
basis point move. So obviously the S and P five
hundred did better, NASDAK did better. So we can see
that the moat was really the top seven. The magnificent
seven again was what led this stock higher in the
month of July, and that's why we hit new all
time highs. It's this AI rally we continue to hit

(01:12:45):
it and with that end of the month, we have
some down numbers too.

Speaker 5 (01:12:49):
So looking at the down numbers, if you guys have
been following along throughout the year. You know that It's
in Video was once at the bottom of the list,
they are now at the top. They're up twenty eight
percent year to dates, which is pretty incredible. At the
very bottom. Could we take a wild guess.

Speaker 3 (01:13:03):
Work Healthcare YEP, down.

Speaker 5 (01:13:06):
Fifty on the year. Going back to the top, you
have Nvidia, Microsoft, Boeing, Goldman, Sacks, JP, Morgan, and Caterpillar.
IBM was a leader for quite some time, but they
actually got hit off of their earnings reports this week.
I think they dropped thirteen point one percent in the
month of July.

Speaker 2 (01:13:23):
Interesting, Interesting and video Gangs seventeen percent in July. So
game most of it's year to date game just last month,
it's been taken off.

Speaker 4 (01:13:32):
If we take a look at the well, just real
quick about United Healthcare. They did report it this week
as well, and they reported again that the medical care
is not looking good on the business side, let alone
with all the other issues they've had to go through,
but is not looking good on the on on the
business side as well. Healthcare as a whole. It's a
tough space to invest. And we've been talking about this
a lot that it's it's something that's who knows what

(01:13:55):
trials coming out, or the next regulation that hurts something,
and sometimes it's there's other spaces.

Speaker 2 (01:14:01):
There's a lot of by the rumor, sell the news,
or in that case, if it's passes phase one, phase two,
phase three trials, that's you sell. It's hard to keep
those because it's just always gonna get hit with regulatory issues.
Or they have a great drug that makes it through
phase two trial easily and then failsa phase three and
then all of a sudden, they're just back to square one,
and it's it's a it's a tough industry to be

(01:14:23):
in that. Some companies do pay a decent dividend, like
Gillyad pays about a three and a half percent dividends,
so fiveser pays a dividend.

Speaker 3 (01:14:28):
That's what those companies are.

Speaker 2 (01:14:29):
But like we're talking about last segment, if they get
all their profit cut in half from these drug cup
prices going down, are they still going to pay that dividend?

Speaker 3 (01:14:37):
You don't know.

Speaker 5 (01:14:38):
I saw a pharma pharmaceutical company go up like six
hundred and fifty percent one of these days this week,
and the reason because of it was because they they
got past a phase two trial for a drug that
affects point zero zero zero two percent of people in
the United States of America up six hundred and fifty
percent or something like that.

Speaker 3 (01:14:56):
What is that? What drug is at?

Speaker 5 (01:14:58):
It doesn't matter. I was curious, so I couldn't tell you.

Speaker 4 (01:15:02):
I just heard you talk about dividends too, cutting dividends,
you know, cut their dividend this world. We've been talking
about this for a while. They had to eventually do it.
I mean they had I think it was like a
twelve percent dividend, yeah, or something like that.

Speaker 5 (01:15:14):
Cut it in half. Cut it in half, rightfully. So
they're not going to be able to keep that one up.
Let's go back to.

Speaker 3 (01:15:18):
That huge dividend.

Speaker 5 (01:15:20):
It was huge because the price have gotten beat up
so much. But going back to the S and P
sector's top performing sector. Could you guys take a guess?
No tech?

Speaker 3 (01:15:29):
Okay, tech, no.

Speaker 5 (01:15:31):
XLU, You're to date thirteen point five percent utilities.

Speaker 3 (01:15:35):
Look at that.

Speaker 4 (01:15:36):
The AI energy demands is real.

Speaker 5 (01:15:38):
The one in second place is not technology either. Could
you guess it?

Speaker 3 (01:15:41):
Second place?

Speaker 1 (01:15:43):
Uh?

Speaker 4 (01:15:43):
Communications?

Speaker 1 (01:15:44):
Kay?

Speaker 3 (01:15:44):
Yeah, it's communications.

Speaker 5 (01:15:45):
No industrials thirteen point four percent more infrastructure you have
XLK at ten point four percent your dating then XLC Communications.

Speaker 4 (01:15:55):
Dang that it's non sexy names at the top of
the list.

Speaker 5 (01:15:58):
It's I think that we're just kind of thinking about
the text stocks in the last two months since the bottom,
you know, they've ripped up dramatically since that point.

Speaker 4 (01:16:08):
Yeah, I mean, I think about it with the energy
I mean we saw it with the nuclear ETF. I mean,
things up over thirty percent in ETF. You're to date,
you know, let alone, that's a more diversified energy play.
With XLU up over ten percent as well, what's the
bottom performer on that list?

Speaker 2 (01:16:26):
Healthcare probably dragged down a lot by United Health.

Speaker 4 (01:16:32):
It's a tough space to invest in, for sure, and
it's only gonna get tougher.

Speaker 1 (01:16:37):
You know.

Speaker 4 (01:16:38):
RFK seems to really try to shape things, shake things
up in that space. I think it's a good thing,
but it's definitely gonna make it more challenging on analysts
or trying to figure out what valuation these companies are
gonna be worth. Fired the entire vaccine board, figuring out
whether we're gonna have red dye forty in our food
and things like that.

Speaker 5 (01:16:56):
You oh, that's not gonna be red died forty. It's
gonna beat colored.

Speaker 4 (01:16:59):
Right, That's what I'm saying. You know, that reminds me
of another company that's actually been gaining some traction. And
we talked about it the last couple of weeks as Hershey's, Uh,
consumer staples did really well on Friday. Normally do when
there's some type of uncertainty about the economy going forward.
The consumer stables are going to be the things that
we're going to buy no matter what. And apparently even
though Hershey's made their chocolate bars like fifty percent more

(01:17:21):
and probably Reeses and all the other hosts of portfolio
candy bars that they have, we didn't stop buying them.

Speaker 3 (01:17:26):
Yeah, but they're coming out with an Oreo Reese's mix.
That's why they're doing well.

Speaker 5 (01:17:30):
Yeah, so buy this.

Speaker 3 (01:17:31):
That sounds pretty good.

Speaker 4 (01:17:33):
I mean, if there's one reason to buy a stock,
an Orioles mix.

Speaker 3 (01:17:37):
Might be gott to be the catalyst. You gotta buy it.

Speaker 5 (01:17:40):
So let's go back to PayPal real quick, go for
a little bit about that. So Dave always asked, what
is stable coin? What are we going to be using
it for? And PayPal is going to be driving a
crypto payment system which is gonna essentially just reduce costs
and expand global commerce. Okay, businesses around the world world
lose billions dollars annually and cross border fees will navigating
a complex banking system to make and accept payments in today.

(01:18:02):
PayPal is going to simplify cross border commerce for merchants
by connecting unmatched combinations of cryptocurrencies, so they're going to
have their own stable coin and it's going to cut
costs by over ninety percent.

Speaker 4 (01:18:12):
I mean, this is exactly the type of day you
might have to reiterate that for the listeners, because what
we're really trying to say is that JP Morgan themselves
are coming out. They're piloting their own program. I mean,
we're this is going to be how banks interact with
one another. Right now, it's a legacy system. It's archaic,
it's old. We used to have actual books. I mean

(01:18:37):
the term balancing books came from something there was actual
banks had physical ledgers. Now that ledger is going to
be it's still going to be centralized with the bank,
but it's going to be digitized and allowing it to
be transferred across borders. Seamlessly, at the speed of light,
at the fraction of the cost. That's what we're talking
about with technology. Money and money transfer isn't as simple

(01:18:58):
as people think.

Speaker 1 (01:18:58):
It is.

Speaker 4 (01:18:59):
A lot of people think and get simple, especially in
America because it is easy for us, but a lot
of people across the world it's not. That's the type
of thing that's revolutionary for money right now.

Speaker 5 (01:19:08):
That's really big.

Speaker 3 (01:19:09):
Yeah, it's a huge market.

Speaker 2 (01:19:10):
That's a big one with XRP and why it's been
catching a big bid and people are getting excited about XRP,
which is owned by Ripple, because they're the ones that
have the ledger that you can go in between currencies
seamlessly quickly. It takes seconds rather than days as a
wire transfer or swift if you're going international.

Speaker 5 (01:19:29):
And again it's going to reduce costs. But for these
people by ninety percent, it's incredible.

Speaker 4 (01:19:34):
I mean, think about how many people are in this
country the loan that send money back to other countries.
I mean they had their use to do it through
the Western Union system or some other system that I'm
not privy to, but either way, it was a very
unsecured thing, especially when you know your loved one has
to go to some place where the cartel knows everyone's
getting their money from.

Speaker 5 (01:19:52):
There's a quote from Alex Curris, president CEO of PayPal.
Imagine a shopper in Guatemala buying a special gift from
a merchant in Oklahoma City. Using PayPal Open platform, the
business can accept crypto for payments, increase the profit margins,
pay lower transaction fees, get near instant access to proceeds,
and grow funds stored at PYUSD, which is PayPal's stable
coin at four percent when held on PayPal.

Speaker 4 (01:20:14):
And so what we're talking about with stable coins is
tokenizing dollars. Right, We're digitizing and tokenizing the asset that
is the dollar. What's gonna happen as well, is they're
going to tokenize securities.

Speaker 1 (01:20:26):
Right.

Speaker 4 (01:20:26):
They're used to have the physical stock certificate that you
get when you buy the stock. That's not really a
thing now. Now it's more of just data entry with
the brokerage firms understanding who owns what. Eventually, that's also
a very archaic system. They have to charge commissions, They
have to charge fees for doing this and upholding their
records instead. Imagine you have a tokenized system. You tokenize
every security in the stock market, right and eventually you

(01:20:50):
could tokenize probably even physical assets as well, like real
estate and things like this. This is something that Goldman
Sachs is looking into Morgan Stanley and the ability to say, hey, hey,
what if instead we're charging commission, we charge a small
transaction fee, and that transaction fee, even though small, will
probably end up being more money for there at the
bottom line at the end of the day. Also, some

(01:21:11):
of the privacy risks of that is potentially they have
more insight, they have more ability to confiscate if it
is digitized. There are some risks that come with it,
but also the benefits is we could have trades that
settle in one second. There's no T plus one, there's
not even a T plus one hour. It's you settle immediately.
Because everything's tokenized, there's no delivery system of any kind.

Speaker 5 (01:21:33):
So again, instead of that paper stock certificate or brokeer's
account entry, like you were saying, you now have a
digital token that represents your ownership. Now explain that to
the listeners. What exactly does that mean, because this isn't
my share on mind?

Speaker 4 (01:21:46):
Well, think about a mutual fund right. Think about a
mutual fund. When I buy a mutual fund and it
has ten different companies inside of it, I am buying
a share of the mutual fund that owns a share
of those ten companies. Right, it's a very similar aspect.

Speaker 2 (01:22:01):
Yeah, it goes a lot into it, and we're definitely
moving that way. The world is moving that way.

Speaker 4 (01:22:06):
Well, it's just a claim. I mean, think about what
gold is. I mean, if you hold if you gave
your gold to the bank and then they gave you
a receipt that says you can come claim your goal
to anyone time, that's just a paper claim.

Speaker 5 (01:22:16):
Do we get to the point that we're tokenizing property exactly?

Speaker 4 (01:22:19):
I think it is, and it's it will make all
the transaction fees that come along with those transactions cheaper.

Speaker 5 (01:22:24):
Well imagine being you know that that would in theory
make your property liquid.

Speaker 4 (01:22:28):
Why do I need a title company if everything's tokenized?

Speaker 5 (01:22:31):
Oh my gosh, the title insurance is Oh.

Speaker 4 (01:22:33):
They don't, they don't.

Speaker 3 (01:22:34):
They don't want.

Speaker 4 (01:22:35):
They don't want tokenized transactions because then you can audit everything,
you'll see everything be a lot cleaner. You don't have
to worry about wire transfers. I mean, you can completely
revolutionize the entire financial system, make it overall cost effective,
more cheaper for the end user, but obviously increase the
overall mote. So a lot of revolutionary things that we're

(01:22:56):
talking about here right now. Though narrative is everything, right,
I mean, and it's for the companies, it's not about
beating their earnings per share x expectations. They have to
talk about guidance. They have to talk about how well
they're going to do in the future. And one of
the companies I'm excited about how a tough weekgo is Marvel, Right,
Marvel's having these A six And we've talked about how

(01:23:18):
eventually the GPUs that we're all talking about with this
AI revolution, that's what it's on right now. Eventually it's
going to start to be a more fifty to fifty
split between A six and GPUs because A six are
more of just the straight up brains of inference, where
AI GPUs are more about how to actually get the
reasoning practical for the end users. So there's going to

(01:23:39):
be a lot of interesting mixes over time, and so
some of these companies that specialize in the A six
potentially could get a bit as well.

Speaker 5 (01:23:46):
Yep, I like Marvel. I've been taking a look at Micron,
especially this week after they got pretty beat up.

Speaker 2 (01:23:54):
Yeah, we'll talk more about Micron and Marvel and all
the crypto companies on the next side of the break.

Speaker 3 (01:23:59):
We are coming up on a brain.

Speaker 2 (01:24:00):
We want to thank you all out there for listening
to The Money Matter Show. That you would be talking
to nobody, so we really appreciate everybody out there that listens.

Speaker 3 (01:24:07):
Every Sunday. We also have our Saturday shows all.

Speaker 2 (01:24:10):
Throughout the day and we have our TV show Sunday
morning and Sunday night. And if you ever want to
give us a call, call us at our office. We'll
be back.

Speaker 3 (01:24:17):
This is the Money Matter Show.

Speaker 5 (01:24:18):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastiana Bors the name here with Dylan Greenberg and Todd
Click Junior. I have a stock that we've been talking
about a little bit on The Greenberg Financial Show Money
Matter Show, and it's Generak. Todd talk a little bit
about Generak what they do this week.

Speaker 4 (01:24:31):
They build generators.

Speaker 5 (01:24:32):
Okay, but why have you been watching this stuck?

Speaker 6 (01:24:37):
Well?

Speaker 4 (01:24:37):
AI, right, it's all about the energy demand at the
end of the day and we know that when people
lose their power, where they going to use generators. Also,
if you're a data center, you're probably not going to
build this entire huge data center on one energy supply
unit and say well, if that goes out, what are
we gonna do? You're gonna buy some backup generators. So
every time you build a data center, what are you
gonna have a whole bunch of orders data for generators

(01:24:58):
behind that. GENERAK is one of the lead in America
for building these. The stock's gotten beaten up. I mean,
if you look at a chart of this thing, it
was up quite a bit higher than where it is
now a couple of years ago. But it seems to
be gaining some traction. We have other people analysts that
have really liked this stock in the long run, again
just because of the AI demand of energy.

Speaker 5 (01:25:18):
Also highlight of the cause entry into the data centers. Yes,
and it made me pretty a lot more bullish into
again the uranium space than NLR.

Speaker 2 (01:25:27):
Yeah, NLR, like we said earlier, it's been doing really
well this year. The nuclear space is the future for
how to provide energy to all these data centers. We're
making these huge data centers. I mean, Meta wants to
build a data center the size of Manhattan. It's insane
in these sizes, and they're going to need energy and
nuclear is the way. But there's these new nuclear companies
out there that have the ability to build a reactor

(01:25:47):
the size of a dump truck and have a power
and an entire facility. And that's Oaklow, who's part of NLR,
who's in itself is up about seventy eighty percent for
the year, and that's part of why NLR is up
thirty eight percent. As an ETF. You have multiple companies
in there and you're still at thirty eight percent for
the year. That means the sector as a whole is
doing very well.

Speaker 4 (01:26:07):
And obviously, I mean, okhad SMR looking at it, it's
very specultive. I mean, they have no earnings, they lose money.
It's gonna be probably at least two three years before
they even have one of these things commercialized. But the
expectation of energy demand and the hype is real, really real.

Speaker 3 (01:26:26):
That's what we're talking about.

Speaker 2 (01:26:27):
We say, like Amazon, it's all about guidance, all about
what your what are you going to do in the future,
So the market does that's what the market cares about
I don't care about what happened, and they bring it
in a little bit. But like Amazon, they had great
earnings from the past quarter and their guidance sucks and
now it drops seven percent. You got all this good
news around nuclear, about all what's going to happen in

(01:26:47):
the next few years in nuclear, people want in.

Speaker 4 (01:26:50):
And it's also magic though, right they don't have their
earnings per share, so they they don't have anything to
judge it off of. They're saying, oh, yeah, the future
is even brighter. Oh great, it warrants even higher value. Well,
at some point you're you're trading hype, right, and that
can be a speculative game. It's it's gone up quite significant.
I think it's over three hundred percent over the last year.
So yeah, probably not something that you want to be

(01:27:12):
getting your feet too wet into right now, but it's
likely going to trade off. I mean either very volatile,
very high beta stocks. High beta means it moves way
more than what the market moves, So you gotta be
careful going into these names. But other names that we
were talking about for a long time on the show,
VRT back to its all time highs. I mean, it
was down over sixty percent at one point in April,

(01:27:36):
and largely because in the video you talked about it
with your Dow Jones report, Sebastian, with the Dow being
at the I mean the video being at the bottom
of the doubt list now at the top. Well, VRT
did the same exact thing. Trades very in tandem with
the stock because VRT is the liquid cooling mechanism behind
the Blackwell chip. And another company that we mentioned well
I mentioned we researched this week about some thermal cooling

(01:27:59):
that got a really big been up over forty percent
this week was mod and then they have some thermal cooling.
So it's all about the cooling game. It's all about
the energy game right now, and it's largely also with
what you said the number two sector right now in
the SMP industrials, right it's infrastructure building out the infrastructure.
But after this, in my opinion, the play is going

(01:28:21):
to go away from these data centers, these cloud capacity
buildouts into the edge AI the consumer products that we
all are going to be using, and those are going
to be those wearable products or the cars or the TVs, thefrigerators,
whatever it may be. I mean, imagine when the refrigerator
sends you a note exactly what you need. You know,
you don't have to worry about or it orders it

(01:28:41):
or better. Yeah, you just you just come home and
you're like, I didn't know I need milk? Oh I
did you know? So there's a lot of cool things
that requires chips. Qualcom is going to be a beneficiary
of that, and then other companies as well.

Speaker 5 (01:28:55):
Qualcom is big into the car space, right, Yeah, they
have a lot of a lot of those and obviously
more and more cars we're going to be implementing the
artificial intelligence into them. I mean, Tesla's just started their
grock They had a software update release and they now
have artificial intelligence. It's just to start.

Speaker 4 (01:29:12):
And then companies like Palanteer and the Censure are going
to be the gap between the business and then the
AI capabilities. How do you make use of the AI
insights into your business. Pollenteer is going to be more
on the governmental side, helping governments doing their things, but
they also have some commercial applications as well of course,

(01:29:32):
but then the Censer is going to be more on
the business side as well.

Speaker 2 (01:29:37):
We've got a lot of good things coming through technology
and AI, and this boom is just in the infancy stage,
it's just starting.

Speaker 4 (01:29:43):
There's a lot of ways to invest in this AI revolution. Yeah,
I mean we're probably in the third inning right now,
and so if you want to take advantage we are
having a little bit of sell off. Eventually there's going
to be a good opportunity and that's what we're waiting for,
right so give us a call. We have many different
categories of this revolution to invest in, and one for you. Also,
we have structured product ets. We know we do annual

(01:30:06):
reviews with our current clients and we always say, if
there's part of you that thinks that you've made all
the money that you want right now, and you feel
like the market should drop at some point, you don't
feel comfortable keep taking some risk. We can move a
part of your accounting to the structured protected ETF that
will keep participating if the market with the market, if
it keeps going higher up into a cap. But if

(01:30:26):
it does drop, that portion of the portfolio is not
going to drop more than the expense ratio of the
fun So that allows us to have almost like a
fixed income alternative, have some type of protection sleeve in
the overall portfolio.

Speaker 2 (01:30:39):
It can be very beneficial for your program. But like
we don't know your risk out there.

Speaker 3 (01:30:42):
We're not.

Speaker 2 (01:30:44):
Suggesting any buys of any stock or any company or
any ETF on this show. We're just talking about what
we've seen our clients use, what we found beneficial, and
what we've seen the market move into in the future.

Speaker 3 (01:30:55):
But we obviously don't know your risk.

Speaker 2 (01:30:57):
But if you want to know your risk, come in
meet with thus, get your risk tolerance, get your financial
plan done.

Speaker 3 (01:31:02):
It's all free.

Speaker 2 (01:31:03):
It's all just for us to sit there and help
you figure out where your financial situation is and are
you ready to retire or not?

Speaker 4 (01:31:09):
And about that risk. We're talking about guarantees. We have
these annuities for maybe a more more month. If rates
are going down, correct, nudies are gonna get a lot worse.
People understand that rates are directly correlated with how good
that annuity product are gonna be in subsequent years. It
doesn't really matter once you have that contract locked in

(01:31:31):
because you have somewhat of a contract with the annuity company.
But if you're waiting to buy for something, higher rates
is a good thing for annuities lower rates are a
bad thing for annuities, and so they're gonna get the
products are gonna get worse next week. And if rates
keep going down, they're gonna get worse and worse compared
relative to where they are right now. So there's still
magas in the five percent range you can take advantage of.

(01:31:52):
We do bond ladders. I mean, we just talked to
a client who had a sizeable amount in just a
checking account. We can build a bond ladder for you.

Speaker 1 (01:32:00):
Right.

Speaker 4 (01:32:00):
We don't do all just investments in stocks. Right, we
can build a preservation of principal account that at least
you're taking advantage of interest rates and not letting the
bank take advantage of you.

Speaker 1 (01:32:10):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:32:10):
We're an independent firm, so we can invest in anything
that we find to be beneficial. We're not stuck to
one product or one investment style. We are able to
do anything. We're just here to help in that sense,
and we're not a captive agent or anything like that.
You can do whatever we can to help. You can
do life insurance if it fits into your plan of
what you need. A lot of the time people don't

(01:32:31):
need life insurance because they don't have any more dependence
later on in life. They can either let it just
go away, or if you have a cash value life
insurance plan that could be helpful in your plan in
a different way than just a death benefit. Or if
you still have a dependent later on life and we
want to look at term life insurance, that's something to do.

Speaker 3 (01:32:48):
But like I said, we don't know. We don't know
your situation.

Speaker 2 (01:32:53):
Everybody's situation is unique, especially when it comes to finances.
So just come in and meet with us, or come
to our seminar on Friday, the twenty sixth of September
at Lapaaloma.

Speaker 5 (01:33:03):
You can have all about it.

Speaker 4 (01:33:05):
Yep, all right here in August. August is historically week
We love Dave because he talks about seasonality all the time,
and August apparently we're entering into nervous territory here, all right.
July is historically one of the better months. I think
it's the top three of the year, but August is
not one of the good ones. Then it starts to
potentially pick up after that. There's going into August with

(01:33:29):
this uncertainty. What are we thinking here? And we're gonna
have a little bit of a pullback through August or
is it gonna be bought right back up like all
the other dips have been thus far.

Speaker 5 (01:33:39):
I personally think it's gonna get bought up. I think
we're gonna get more trade deals.

Speaker 3 (01:33:43):
Yeah, I think we're aiming more towards the trade deals.
I think it's gonna see a little.

Speaker 2 (01:33:47):
Drop, but we could see a five percent pullback would
be one thing, and then I think that could be
quick though, and then it could turn right back up.

Speaker 4 (01:33:53):
Yeah, I'm similar. I think sixty one to fifty looks
like an interesting support level for the S and P.
If old stare should be able to bounce right back up.
Sixty four hundred the S and P got to yep.
I mean we were talking last week on the show.
Do we think seven thousand reality? At sixty four hundred,
it looked quite quite reality. I mean we're right there.

(01:34:16):
The S and P is up still six percent year today.
I mean we're about seven months in ten percent on average,
we're on pace for an average year.

Speaker 1 (01:34:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:34:24):
Your thought is the terrorists actually went through. He kept
pushing him back. Now they actually went through. So maybe
countries say, Okay, he's actually gonna do it. Let's make
a deal. We're not playing that game anymore. And then September,
which is historically a down month, might not be so
bad this year if the FED does what people think. Yeah,
because that's still speculative. They haven't priced in a FED

(01:34:46):
cut in September yet, even though the odds are going
so maybe that gets priced in as they talk more
through August. Maybe that turns August good. We don't know,
but that could be something that could be a good
catalyst in September, which is historically a bad month.

Speaker 4 (01:34:58):
Football preseason started on Thursday with the Hall of Fame game.
Gets really going this Thursday. God, we got some football.
You guys are back with the coaching of the Tucson
High Badger. You guys excited for the season.

Speaker 2 (01:35:09):
Oh yeah, We start full going tomorrow, six days a week,
getting our preseason ready.

Speaker 4 (01:35:14):
You guys got a tough schedule this year, but it's
gonna be a fun one.

Speaker 2 (01:35:16):
If we have the by power Pots or whatever it is.
We have the toughest schedule, toughest schedule, play a lot
of good teams this year. You gotta go to Phoenix
a few times too.

Speaker 4 (01:35:24):
Remember you can always watch us on our YouTube show.
We also do those weekly market updates on Facebook. We
also are on the TV KVOA Sunday morning. You can
check us out Sunday night after the ten o'clock news.
Anytime you have questions for us, give us a call.
We're here to help you. At the end of the
day five to two zero five to oh five for
four four nine zero nine.

Speaker 2 (01:35:46):
There you go. That's it. It's been another great show.
Thank you everybody for tuning in. We really appreciate it.
Call us with anything, email us with anything, any questions,
we'd be happy to help.

Speaker 3 (01:35:57):
And with that, let's keep it. Let's be happy. Almost
messed it up.

Speaker 2 (01:36:01):
Let's be happy, Let's be healthy, but most of all,
let's be profitable.

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