Money Matters: Market Reactions to Trump’s Inauguration & Future Economic Impacts

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Good morning everybody.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's that time once again, Sunday morning, eight o'clock and
guess what it's money Matter's time with Dean Greenberg. I
hope you're having a good week. It's a good week
in the markets. The weather is a little cold, but
it's nice to feel that once in a while, putting
on a life sweater or a jacket and feel like
we have another season for a couple of days, because

(00:26):
you know it'll turn back hot again, not too far.
But the market is hot, the week is hot. Trump
is hot. Things are going faster than most people can handle.
But that's a good thing. But as you know, it's
also an uphill battle. It always is an uphill battle

(00:47):
when it comes to politics. But the markets try to
look past that. They made up and went up and
made the high this week, pulled back a little bit
on Friday. We'll probably have a little bit more of
a pull back depending on what happens next week.

Speaker 1 (01:00):
With the Federal Reserve.

Speaker 2 (01:02):
We're either going to put in another higher, higher low,
or it'll break down and we'll finally get what I've
been expecting is a you know, a downturn to be
a great buying opportunity. Not that I want a downturn,
not that I think there's going to be a downturn
for long, but I think there is one in the cords,

(01:23):
and that's why we continue to mitigate risk as we
move higher. This week the market, the Dow went up
two percent, the S and P was up one point
eight percent, the NAVZAK was up one point seven percent,
and they equal weighted was up one point two and
Russell two thousand was one up and a half. That
puts US up about three percent for the month across

(01:44):
the board, and the dowager is up about four percent
for and that's for the year to date obviously too.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
Here's the good news.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
The good news is we have an administration in there
that is going to be America first, and you know,
he wants the economy to be good, and you know
he wants inter straits to come down, and you know what,
he wants Americans to feel like they can be wealthy again,

(02:15):
which means the one caveat in this whole thing is
how he's gonna bring down in plation. And I don't
know how that's gonna happen other than opening up the
supply chain.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
Now, the first place we're gonna open up.

Speaker 2 (02:27):
The supply chain is an oil and gas And I
know we've listened here and there, over and over and
again about well we we we export more oil gas
we ever have. Okay, we can use our own oil
and gas. We can still make oil and gas cheaper.
We can put pressure on Opecta to bring prices down.

(02:50):
And guess what that's gonna do. That's gonna lead to
the end of the war with Ukraine and Russia. With
oil prices up in the SETI in the eighties and
even higher there for a while, it's given Russia nothing
but billions and billions of dollars to sell when they
sell their oil in order to fund their war.

Speaker 1 (03:13):
Well, if we bring.

Speaker 2 (03:14):
Oil prices down sub sixty some fifty into the high forties,
mid forties, that money that's a spickett to fund that
war in Russia will no longer be there and there
will be more pressure on Russia to sit at the
table and make a deal with Ukraine.

Speaker 1 (03:31):
And Ukraine needs to make a.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
Deal with Russia because the biggest thing, and we all agree,
and I've said this so much time, nobody wants to
see their loved ones killed. Is it only in America
that we cherish lives and wars that we don't want
to have. I mean, there's millions of people that have
been killed in these wars. In this last war Ukraine

(03:55):
in Russia, I think there's a million six or something.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
They're saying.

Speaker 2 (03:59):
Where ridiculous, that's horrible. We don't need wars. Governments are
the one that want wars. What benefit is this going
to happen? Even when the war is done in Ukraine
and Russia. Loved ones are dead, so they get a
little bit more property here or there once against one
one to probably get the other. But the cities are decimated,

(04:23):
they're uninhabitable, they have to be rebuilt. So is that
why we have these wars? So then construction companies and
countries can become rich again by the select forew to
go ahead that go in and rebuild these on the
backbones of taxpayers. And I hope we're not giving them

(04:45):
money to do that without us getting something out of it.
And I believe Trump will make sure that we are
not just taking advantage of and that when we do
things to help people, there will be a return there. Eventually,
in the end, we will see interest rates come down
once we get inflation down. Inflation has to start, has

(05:08):
to start with energy. We get energy prices down, then
that will help. Now is that going to be good
for the oil companies? Probably not at first. They know
they can go do things. But if they pump more
and their margins are less, but they still make it
more and more and their exporting and the doing other things,
and their tax bracket is lowered, they'll still.

Speaker 1 (05:29):
Be able to do okay.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
But I think the first reaction would be that they
will probably take a little bit of a hit. They've
taken a little bit of a hit already, but they've
rebounded a little bit, So we'll see what happens there. Remember,
everything we do has risk. We manage risk, we manage money.

(05:51):
You have to have a risk tolerance. We try to
figure out what that is, but it doesn't matter because
on this show we talk about different priors, different stada,
we Matt, we talk to you about the different things
that are out there. But everything has some type of risk,
and you need to understand those risks. You really do,
you know, because if you don't, it's hard to put
together portfolio and allocation. But more than anything, then you're

(06:14):
not prepared. If the markets do fall. Why do I
think the markets are going to fall? And I don't
think it's a crash, but you never know it's a crack.

Speaker 3 (06:23):
I never.

Speaker 2 (06:23):
You can't invest with the idea you're gonna have a crash.
You can invest and say I think these markets a
little overdone, and I think we can have a decent
pullback of more than two or three percent.

Speaker 1 (06:33):
Maybe it's seven, ten, fifteen.

Speaker 2 (06:34):
But as it goes, and the reason the markets are
falling either snowballs and breaks down or stops and comes
back up.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
You don't know that.

Speaker 2 (06:42):
So anyone that says they know that or predicts these
crashes are full of crap. I'll tell you that right now,
because they don't know.

Speaker 1 (06:49):
Is there weakness? There are there reasons there, yes.

Speaker 2 (06:51):
But if they keep telling you the market's going down,
going down, going down, and then eventually a year and
a half later the markets do fall, but they fall
from another twenty thirty percent and higher, are they right?
In their eyes? They are? And my eyes they're not.
Because timing is very difficult. Understanding how to invest and
mitigate risk is the whole name of the game. Right now,

(07:13):
Why I until we see inflation come down, if they
put pressure on the FED to lower interest rates, and
they and we stimulate the economy. It's going to put
pressure on inflation until we get the supply chains where
we have more supply than we do demand. Right now,
we still continually have demand. And my feeling is if
you bring interest rates down, you're going to see housing
starts moving higher again. And if you start seeing housing

(07:36):
moving higher again, then you're going to have a shortage
of materials.

Speaker 1 (07:39):
And those prices will go up again.

Speaker 2 (07:41):
Yes, you'll have a lower interest rate on your mortgage,
but yet everything else will be going up in price.
So be careful what we were to I know we
want it, but you know what, six and a half
seven percent is not that difficult. Most of us that
fifty plus remember the days that interest rates, mortgage rates
will ten, twelve, thirteen, fourteen percent. All right, they were

(08:05):
up there, and we managed because they came out with
different type products until they went down. We were spoiled
with interest rates down at the two and a half
three percent level for such a long period of time.
But on the other token, the other side of it
is instead of getting a half a percent in the
money market, you're able to get four and a half
percent now, so it's not as bad as it was.
So if you take that three percent, then you're knocking

(08:27):
down on the seven and a half percent.

Speaker 1 (08:28):
You're down to four and a half percent. So think
about it that way.

Speaker 2 (08:34):
Okay, yes, your mortgage is higher, but you're earning more
money on your money. And if you don't have any
money to put in any doing it, then you then
you're stretching yourself, which is a little bit difficult too.
It's very difficult when rates are high. But remember the
consequences when rates are low. We do not want to
have inflation. Inflation's still there. That's the one thing I'm

(08:59):
still with to hear. So when he says I'm going
to demand interest rates come down, I also want to
find out what his deal is. I'm bringing interest inflation down.
That's very important. The rest of it great, you know what,
It's very very good on what's happening, and I'm going
to talk about that in a little bit. But here's

(09:20):
the deal with the markets. We made a new high again.
Is it a double triple top? I don't know. If
we break through, we can go a little bit higher,
probably two three percent high. I think we'll run into
some problems. The markets are extended in certain areas, we
see a lot of trading going back and forth. If
you look at these big tech companies that are going

(09:42):
up and down by about fifteen twenty thirty points, come down,
they buy them back, they go up, they trade them out,
go the other way.

Speaker 1 (09:48):
That is your institute.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Those are the institutional, the hedge funds, the private equity
groups that are looking for opportunities and they're trading those
stocks and big, big amounts, and that's why you see
those big moves. Most investors, you buy your hold. That's
where you make your money for a longer period of time.
If you're trading a little bit of your portfolio, that's great,
but then you have to know how to do that.

(10:10):
And remember right now, valuations are high, earnings are coming in,
some are good, some are it's so good to beat
all these expectations are going to have to be really,
really really good. You know in the video, is that
one that's the bell weather Now it used to be
AT and T, then it was IBM, and then it
was Apple for so long. Now it's the video. Is

(10:33):
the video still growing? Is the video still have the chips?
Does everybody need them. The answer is yes, and that's
going to continue to happen. And that's why every time
that stock gets hit by about twenty points and it
seems to snap right back and then go from there.
I still think that there's an opportunity to see you
break out of that one fifty over time, because they

(10:53):
are leading the industry in the chips that everybody needs
to need for AI. The other part it we need
data centers, data centers. So you heard this week that
what we're going to do is he's getting private money
up to probably one trillion dollars but at least six
hundred billion to build data centers, and he's talking about

(11:16):
putting on federal land. These are ideas that are fantastic.
It's blowing half the people's mind on the left. They
don't understand it, they don't get it. But this is
what we needed, this is what we've voted for. We
want change, we want new ideas, we want.

Speaker 1 (11:39):
To be aggressive.

Speaker 2 (11:40):
Just feel the difference with the media, the same media
that's talking now about the way they used to talk
about Trump, the way they're talking about now and the
way the world is reacting. I don't feel like with
this weak little sister that everybody wants to step on
and take advantage anymore. Like people are trying to get

(12:01):
in line and say, how we're gonna deal with America,
who is the best, who is the strongest, and who
is the number one economy and military in the world.
We gotta get in line. That's what leadership by power does.
Strength brings people in line. That's the only thing a
lot of these people are the countries even understand the

(12:22):
socialists of countries, they're not gonna get it and they're
gonna fall by the wayside. Germany is having a tough time.

Speaker 1 (12:29):
They can't get out of their own way.

Speaker 2 (12:31):
England, who thought they can go on their own they're
having a tough time. We already saw what happened to
Spain and Greece. France is right behind it. Canada is
having tough times and it's gonna get tough if they
don't get in line. I do not have a problem
with us being the number one country in the world.

(12:53):
I do not have a problem having us have the
number one economy. I do not have a problem giving
companies the ability to have lower time taxes if they're
manufacturing their products in the United States. That means jobs.
These data centers, they talk about one hundred thousand jobs.
I bet over time it's going to be even more
than that. But remember what you need for these data centers.

(13:15):
I've been saying this. You need cooling, so these these
these small nuclear plants are going to create electricity. Then
you're going to get to other companies that have to
cool everything. And then you have to have the data centers.
And then you put these data centers in areas there's nothing.
Now you have to build up cities and housing around

(13:36):
the data centers so people have places to live.

Speaker 1 (13:42):
And if they are.

Speaker 2 (13:43):
Places that are not in California, not in the Illinois,
not in New York and Connecticut, New Jersey, and people
want jobs, they're gonna have to find it. This reminds
me back when Honda and all came to America, and
and and the Japanese companies came to America to build cars,

(14:04):
and it was hurting Detroit and people complaining, how I
don't have work, I can't get jobs. There's no jobs
here in there. But they didn't want to be mobile.
They wanted to stay right where they grew up. Write
what they did and flounder instead of getting mobile and
move into North Carolina or Tennessee and start working for

(14:26):
the car companies that were looking for people that know
what to do and had experience in building cars, but
they didn't want to leave.

Speaker 1 (14:36):
Sometimes you need change. I've said this my whole life.

Speaker 2 (14:39):
If you want to go ahead and be in a
position when things aren't working to succeed, you need to
understand the word change, change the plan. I always relate
back to the to my coaching abilities. Once I put
a plan together, I put a game plan together. If
it's not working, what do I do? Do I just
stay there and keep doing this thing? No, I react

(15:02):
and change. I change it to something that I think
will work, and if that works, great. If it doesn't,
you keep going into the whistle blows. Trump is changing
what is going on, and he is blowing the minds
of most people who just sit back with government jobs
at home and cannot believe what's going on. And they're

(15:24):
just going to be complaining and they're gonna be left
by the wayside because nobody cares. Most people look at
him and say, you need to work. Stop thinking that
you have this cushy situation anymore. I love the fact
that he's calling out FEMA. He's not saying we're doing
away with AID. Okay, don't interpret that as well, we're

(15:48):
gonna get rid of FEMA. How were we going to
take care of it? He's putting it on the States. No,
what he's saying is the States can handle better, quicker
and more efficiently their own problems, using the government to
give them the aid they need to go in the
right places instead of going to FEMA. And he said
it right. All I hear about is everyone arguing whose

(16:09):
job is what? And sometimes you got to go through
two or three people to do the one job that
needs to be done, which means at the end of
the day, nothing gets done.

Speaker 1 (16:19):
Nothing. No different than unions.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
One union is electrician one electric one another is air conditioning.
Another is you know, construction, and you have the same
site and nobody can get anything done because no one
can decide who goes first or what has to be done,
and they have to go up the ladder and get
the okay, and you wasteed two, three, four days, maybe weeks,
until whatever simple thing could have been fixed by the

(16:42):
three of them doesn't get done. Time is money with
their building and doing things. Look at the disaster that
happened in North Carolina and they still haven't gotten hardly
anything done.

Speaker 1 (16:54):
That's FEMA.

Speaker 2 (16:55):
I love the fact get rid of it, just go
to the government agency. Doesn't mean we need use the
best people in FEMA to be able to work for
the government to get things done. Streamline it so when
there are disasters, the American people like you and I
don't need to wake months years to get our lives back.

(17:17):
That is a great way to go, and it's gonna
be cheaper. And the states have to make it work.
And the states become accountable and the people that vote
for the people in the states, they're accountable for who
goes in. So something happens here in Arizona, the state,
the people in charge handle it. If they don't do

(17:38):
a good job, we vote them out. We get somebody else.
That doesn't mean we don't get the money. We don't
need FEMA that take weeks and to decide what's going on,
where it's going. And you see the change is happening.
I think it's wonderful. I think it's wonderful. How we
now he says he's gonna do something with the border.
We're actually doing something with the border. We're gonna go

(17:58):
in and we're gonna get rid of criminals, getting rid
of criminals, talking about bringing down taxes, getting the tax playing,
getting going.

Speaker 1 (18:05):
Think about it. The thing that's different in this time,
and I think that the.

Speaker 2 (18:12):
Press and the media love it, is that they actually
can ask questions. Trump answered more questions with the helicopter
in the background going than I think Biden has in
the last year. He doesn't say I can't say this,
he doesn't say I'll get in trouble for this. He

(18:33):
says what's on his mind. Now, you might not be
happy with it, you might not like what he's saying,
but he's saying it. And this is what's blowing my
mind more than anything. Okay, everybody.

Speaker 1 (18:46):
Is complaining that Trump, not.

Speaker 2 (18:51):
Everybody the left, the people that are complaining that Trump
has part in the January sixth people. This is how
I look at it. When Trump was running, he said
a lot of things. He was going to do, the borders,
the tax situation, bringing a judge back to America. But

(19:15):
he also said he was going to parton the people
on January sixth because he thinks that they were unfairly
subjected to different rules than some other people. That things
did during this period that Biden was in and nothing happened,
and let's just call it the summer of love.

Speaker 1 (19:35):
Okay. So what does he do.

Speaker 2 (19:38):
He pardons them, which means it was his word, was
his word, and he lived up to his word. And
the lamb blasting him for that. I look at it
that he just tells you what he's going to do
when he does it, which is what called the truth
and transparency, something we all want. Biden, on the other hand,

(20:02):
said he was going to go ahead and do what
not part in his son, not part in his family,
not part in the people, because he thought that was
the wrong thing to do, and he'll let the law
take it into its own hands. Trump says he will pardon,
Biden says he wouldn't. What does Biden do, He goes

(20:22):
ahead in pardons. What does Trump do? He goes ahead
in pardons. What does everybody do? Gets Biden the break?
It's his son, it's this, it's that, or we understand
Trump is coming after him. Remember the people that voted
for Biden voted for him to use his word and
be honest, and he lied and he always lied and

(20:43):
that administration always lied, and that the Democrats so many times,
keep it quiet, keep it this way, they say what
you want to hear, and next thing you know, they're
doing the opposite. Trump, on the other hand, tells you
what he's going to do, and he does it. Everybody
in America had a choice to vote for Trump or Biden,

(21:08):
believing that they were both telling the truth. Only one
person told the truth. So that next time somebody goes
ahead and says, I can't believe you voted for Trump.
I can't believe tell him listen, I voted for the
man that said he was going to do something and
he did it. I don't vote vote for liars. And
that's what you have done. And that's why we're in

(21:28):
the mess we are. And that's why the threat to
democracy is not the Republicans, is not Trump. It was
the Democratic Party that lied from the beginning to the
end of Biden's whole whole presidency, and if not before that,
over and over again, lied about Trump, lied about the stuff, lie, lie, lied,

(21:48):
That's what they did. And they still want you to
believe their lies. It's a joke. They're useless. I don't
want to hear it anymore. I shouldn't do when they
talk to about this stuff now because I don't want
to support a party that isn't transparent and tell the truth.
You might not like what Trump's doing, but he's doing

(22:10):
what he said he did. And we all had a
choice not to vote for Trump if we didn't want to.
They had a choice to vote for him. Two million
more people popular vote voted for Trump because they wanted
him to stick to what he said he was doing.
What do you see what he is? Going to vote
for Trump when he's doing this and hope that he
doesn't do it. Hell No, people wanted a change, and

(22:33):
we got to change. And that's why the markets like it.
That's why the economy likes it. That's why things are
going to turn out to be pretty don good. After
we have some maybe mishap here in the beginning, little fighting,
we're going to get the things done. But you're always
going to know where he stands, where his party stands,
and what's going to happen to go forward. Don't listen

(22:54):
to the naysayers, don't listen to the people that never change.
Don't listen to the people that rather out of sight,
out of out of sight, out of mind. All that
means is calmness. But it's a lot of stuff that
goes underneath the carpet that you never see, that you
wouldn't want to see, and they lie and they cheat transparency.

(23:15):
At least you can comment on that. Just like I
said before, at the end of the day, demanding interstrates down,
you got to be careful.

Speaker 1 (23:24):
I don't want inflation.

Speaker 2 (23:26):
I want to see the plan to not only reduce
interest rates, but how to bring down inflation. Then I'm
all about bringing down interest rates and stimulating the economy
faster and better than we've ever seen before, because that's
what's going to happen. I just don't want to see
sky high in double digit inflation because we can't control it, okay,
And I don't want to see raising interest rates in

(23:46):
the face of them the FED expecting that. And I
do think the FED needs to be independent. I do
think that different branches of government need to be independent,
but they also need to compromise. Compromise is the main
thing that I look for all the time. So in summary,
the markets are good, be careful, I'm mitigating risk. I've
bid mitigating risk. I'm still making money. When it's going higher.

(24:09):
I just don't want to get killed, and I'm ready
if the markets go down. But sitting in cash with
four and a half percent the more right now is
not a bad place to be waiting for opportunities, which
I promise you will happen sooner than later. I do
appreciate you all listening. This is the moneymunt Of Show.
We'll continue to bring it to you. And thank you
and have a great day.

Speaker 3 (24:36):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. I'm doing Greenberg.
I'm here with Dean Greenberg, Dave Sure, with Todd glickin
Sebastian Borsini. We had a pretty good week last week
with Trump getting inaugurated on MLK Day, so we had
the day off from the market, so we had a
shortened week. We were up for to the last five days,
including previous Friday, and then we had a little pullback
on Friday. Well it's kind of given since you start

(24:58):
taking a little profit. We touched all time highest Friday morning,
just dropped a little bit, but it wasn't anything too bad.
It's been a good January so far, which we tend
to see January be a good month. But everybody's a
little excited about what's going on with Trump and what
he's been saying and all his stuff, and that he's
only kind of talked about terrorists. He hasn't made any
actions on tariffs yet. Investors was like that, which is nice.

Speaker 4 (25:21):
Yeah. The interesting kind of historic week too. We'll get
the oldest president in history, uh inaugurated and the second
youngest vice president in history. It's kind of a combination.

Speaker 5 (25:34):
Yeah, No, this should be the other way around.

Speaker 4 (25:36):
If anything, you should be the youngest president and the second.
I'm very confused here.

Speaker 5 (25:41):
Yes, so it could be.

Speaker 4 (25:42):
A young young president and an old vice president.

Speaker 5 (25:45):
Yeah, because the vice president is pointless.

Speaker 4 (25:48):
In the idea to have the oldest and wisest president
then standing behind him when of you Yeah.

Speaker 3 (25:53):
To be fair, Biden was the oldest and kind of
dropped on that. That's a good point later it's the
same thing.

Speaker 4 (26:01):
But it's just and Biden was older, but Trump is
the oldest president to be inaugurate.

Speaker 3 (26:05):
Yeah. I don't say, but when Biden got inaugurated, I just.

Speaker 4 (26:07):
Tried to your people, didn't yell, oh, no, he's not
the oldest Biden.

Speaker 5 (26:11):
To your point, Trump hearing him talk about AI sometimes
it's it's it's funny. There's he talks a very general
like you could tell he doesn't really know what's going on.

Speaker 4 (26:20):
Yeah, old thing.

Speaker 5 (26:20):
He's just kind of general because you know, when you're
that old, I mean, how do you stay up on
all the new technology?

Speaker 4 (26:26):
And well in the seventy nine it doesn't matter.

Speaker 5 (26:29):
Right, I mean you say this all the time. You
don't care about the new technology necessarily because you're like,
I'm not going to be here for too much longer
to be using it.

Speaker 4 (26:37):
And yet I'm the only person in the office with
an electric car. I had one of the early cell phones.

Speaker 3 (26:41):
You are not your cell phone?

Speaker 4 (26:43):
And I did. Yeah, I got Chat GP on my phone.

Speaker 5 (26:47):
Well, you were young fifty years ago when the first
cell phone and Tucson was created.

Speaker 4 (26:51):
So you guys are They're so mean. They're just so mean.
Interest rates started to creep back up during the week,
but it kind of drifted south at the end. The
interest rates had been a problem earlier in the month.

Speaker 5 (27:05):
Yeah, I mean, the tenure was just flat on the week,
didn't really do much. Next week's going to be the big,
the big movement that we'll see for the for the
next probably month because of the Federal Reserve will meets
talk about their interest rate decision. Obviously, right now the
market's saying that they're not going to do anything, They're
just going to keep them at hold. But you had
an interesting conversation of Trump saying that he wants rates

(27:28):
to go lower, and he might force the Fed to
make rates go lower, which would have a reverse impact
of what he's trying to have happened, because if he
did that and somehow made the Federal Reserve actually lower rates,
it would make the tenure go up immediately.

Speaker 4 (27:42):
It just is completely so, I don't know, it's not nonsensical.

Speaker 5 (27:47):
Yeah, it does not make any sense from a financial standpoint.
So and and also it's not part of the government.
The Federal Reserve is not part of the government. It
is independent. We charter it. It's it's a private busines.
It's just because it's called the Federal Reserve, it has
nothing to do with the federal government. We kind of
forget that. And actually, the Federal Reserve is the fourth

(28:08):
central bank we've had in the United States of America.
We've had other central banks that have failed because again
they're not part of the government.

Speaker 4 (28:16):
It's the fourth one.

Speaker 5 (28:17):
Yeah, third or fourth, but I'm pretty sure it's the fourth.
We've had two definitely that failed in the earlier parts
of our country.

Speaker 4 (28:23):
The elementary we We've been hearing a lot about about
executive orders, right, Dean and I were talking about the
executive orders? How did the executive orders come about? When
did they start using the executive orders? Who's using the
executive orders? Right? So I've got a little facts. Guess
which president issued the very first executive order? Abraham Lincoln,
Georgia Washington. Ok, it goes back away all around. George.

(28:48):
George issued eight of them, so so not a lot.
John Adams followed with one. I'm not going to give
you all the process, but the one that had the
most by far was FDR. Now a couple of reasons
for that. Number One. He was elected to four terms. Right,
He served three full terms plus a part of before Wow,
So he was president for he was president.

Speaker 3 (29:09):
That was wasn't that early nineteen hundreds.

Speaker 4 (29:11):
Twenty seven twenty the late twenties, early thirties, we're coming
out of the recession. Excuse me, we're in the Great Depression.
He was elected three times, four times, served three full
terms and then part of another term before the twenty
second amendents said no, we're not gonna have any more
of that. We'd end up with putin, you know, as

(29:32):
president forever. But he issued three thousand, seven hundred and
twenty one executive orders. Franklin Roosevelt recently uh Obama to
seventy six, Trump one to twenty, Biden one hundred and
sixty two. I think Trump two is going to try
to get that hundred sixty two in the first month.

(29:52):
Right he's been been. But it's they're very common, I guess,
is the point, and we've been seeing them a lot
more lately.

Speaker 5 (30:03):
I think the cool thing about our government is we
understand that there's three parts of it judicial, executive, and legislative.
And then obviously the presence in the executive branch and
the judicial legislative is the one that's supposed to keep
the executive in check. Sure, and so as these executive
orders can, of course be brought into reality by the
executive branch, doesn't mean that they're actually going to be

(30:25):
practiced in reality in terms of the judicial branch could
block it, right, the legislative branch can create another law
that says that that's unconstitutional or whatever it may be.

Speaker 4 (30:35):
I mean, I think one of the obvious ones, the
most noticeable ones was the birthright thing where revoked birthrights.
That's a fourteenth Amendment. You can't revoke an amendment. Yeah,
but with an executive order.

Speaker 5 (30:48):
I did hear from a client. Interesting perspective of the
fourteenth Amendment was it was originally for the slave children
of America.

Speaker 4 (30:58):
Yes, And line one of the Fourteenth Amendment says all
persons born or naturalized in the US. The quote all
persons born or naturalized in the US and subject to
the jurisdiction there of our citizens of the US.

Speaker 5 (31:13):
The question is whether that interpretation that was not interpreted
correctly on the first interpretation. Well, because if it gets
challenged all the way to the Supreme Court, and then
you have a Supreme Court that is already leaning to
the right, you might have it that they reinterpreted that
that it wasn't supposed to be like that all.

Speaker 4 (31:30):
Persons born in the US are subject are citizens of
the US. That's pretty clear.

Speaker 5 (31:35):
I'm just saying, if it gets challenged all the way
up to the Supreme Court, and you know how the
Supreme Court, potentially it could get reversed.

Speaker 4 (31:43):
You know, not a political statements. Just so let's say
let's say Trump decided tomorrow women can no longer vote?
Why not?

Speaker 5 (31:51):
Right, Well, it would get it would just challenge and
obviously it wouldn't even make it to Supreme Court.

Speaker 4 (31:56):
You would think not, you would think not.

Speaker 5 (31:58):
Apparently if this, if it somehow gets all the way
up to the Supreme Court, that'd be a very interesting decision.

Speaker 4 (32:05):
The argument his lawyers may and I don't want to
get into these weeds too far, but the lawyer, the
argument his lawyers made was described by the judge hearing
it as silly.

Speaker 5 (32:16):
So I think it was a Washington State judge though.

Speaker 4 (32:20):
No, I get that. I get that, get but you
know that language that I just read you from the
amendment itself pretty clear. But and I think the point
you make, Todd is that we have legislative and we
have a sial to run check so that that their
job obomb or whomever wants to make an executive order.

(32:40):
They're certainly welcome to do that, but it's not necessarily
going to become the law of the land.

Speaker 5 (32:45):
And that's how it should be, because you can't have
one branch of the governing to be too powerful. Yeah,
because it's not going to lead to a good thing.

Speaker 4 (32:53):
Well no, I mean if if, if, if you can,
if you can run the country by executive orders, you're
a dictator.

Speaker 3 (32:59):
So yeah, you know, and no matter what the people
that didn't vote for Trump, he's not a dictator. He's
still got checks and balances from the other parts.

Speaker 4 (33:04):
Of the Yeah. Absolutely absolutely. And I understand that we've
gone one eighty from where we were a month ago,
but isn't that what we voted?

Speaker 3 (33:12):
And that's kind of why I think him and Biden
both had so many executive orders because day one and
Biden did a ton of them to undo what Trump did.
And now day one Trump of trump second term, he's
undoing what Biden did. Yeah, going back to it. So
that's probably why they have a lot in recent times.

Speaker 4 (33:28):
Many of the executive orders are undoing the executive order
from the previous president. Exactly.

Speaker 5 (33:32):
One that certainly had an impact on a multitude of
companies across almost every sector across the economy was the
DEI exclusion and just saying that that's no longer really
a thing. We're going to be a country based on merit,
not virtue. And so I think that's gonna be a
really good thing obviously just for society as a whole,
but also profits. I mean, companies should be going for

(33:53):
money making, profit generating ideas, not what's the best to
make them feel good about the Yeah.

Speaker 3 (33:58):
Companies were already getting rid of that. The last year.
You could see a lot of big companies started just this,
uh just continuing their DEI programs because it wasn't working.
They stopped hiring people who could actually do the job
and just try to check boxes. So it wasn't working.
And now they went back to that. Now, obviously it's
going to be.

Speaker 5 (34:15):
More and dei's diversity, equity and an inclusion.

Speaker 4 (34:20):
Right exactly exactly. And Trump Trump ordered all federal employees
in in DEI to be placed on paid leave starting
last Wednesday, right and and get ready to be laid
off and told the federal government to uh A federal
agencies to submit a written plan by January thirty first

(34:43):
for dismissing these employees. So it's not just kind of
something we're going to change, it's like we're going to
end this.

Speaker 5 (34:47):
They also said there's only two genders officially, and the
male and female instead of the shocking transgender shocking world.
Will military people can't go use the females.

Speaker 4 (34:58):
Be nice, not have men competing with women.

Speaker 5 (35:01):
In sports and keep it fair, I you.

Speaker 4 (35:04):
Know, regardless of just some of this stuff, just it
just it seemed like common sense.

Speaker 5 (35:08):
And that's you know, what he said in his speech
a couple of times on inauguration Day was We're going
to be the administration of common sense.

Speaker 4 (35:16):
Yeah. Yeah, so common sense is not that common right, Yeah.

Speaker 5 (35:20):
And it'll be interesting to see. Obviously, the tariffs are
going to be the next big thing that could impact markets.
If he does anything with the Federal Reserve trying to
strong arm him, that'd be a really bad thing in
my opinion. But really what we see next week with
the Federal Reserve, we should talk on the other side
of this break. It's going to be a big decision
for them to decide what they're going to say in
their press conference for twenty twenty five. It's the projection

(35:42):
our rates are going to be going.

Speaker 4 (35:43):
I don't think it's going to be quite as aggressive
as we had originally thought, but we've been saying that
on the show for a couple of months. So we'll
be back with more than money Matter Show after this break.
Thanks for taking time out of your Sunday to listen
to us. We do appreciate it.

Speaker 5 (36:03):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Todd Lick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg and David Sherwood.
This week, again, year to date, the Dow is actually
the one leading the way at a really big two
point two percent up week. It led all the industies higher,
and it's now the year to date leader, but still
the equal way to is right behind it a four,

(36:23):
and the S and P's in third place at three
point seven. So definitely seeing more of those doll is
not really industrial these days, but more of the broad
market getting an action.

Speaker 4 (36:33):
It's interesting because you say that, and so went I
went back earlier in the week the twenty first, which
is a couple of days ago, and I wondered how
the witch stocks were leading the Dow. Witch stocks were
lagging behind as of the twenty first, and so I
went through number one performer even though we're not an
industrial it's not industrial. It's three M is number one.
Two and three are banks. Banks are obviously powerhouses in

(36:57):
this number four catapillar industrial right, and then an oil
stock at the bottom. Apple three times as bad as
any other stock is a year to date, and we
can talk a little bit about that. I think that
the stock drop twelve percent and it is hitting the
all time high was just a day after Christmas, four

(37:17):
percent lower on Tuesday, after Jeffries gave the stock a
rare sell saying they expect a disappointing report next Thursday.
Next Thursday, after.

Speaker 5 (37:27):
The close six days away.

Speaker 4 (37:28):
YEP stock ended the week down three and a half
percent of two twenty two. It did have some support
under two twenty. It did below two twenty with some.

Speaker 5 (37:36):
Buying therew moving average.

Speaker 4 (37:38):
Yeah, good solid support there for now. It's all going
to depend upon the learned these reports, and everyone expects
a bad report. So there's the possibility you get a
disappointing report out of Apple and actually get a.

Speaker 5 (37:52):
Rally, right because it's not as disappointing as people had thought.

Speaker 4 (37:55):
Yeah, and the stock's already down fifteen percent from the
high I said just three weeks ago.

Speaker 5 (38:00):
It's not a place where you're you're just jumping in
to buy it because of the lack of excitement around
that vision pro the lack of excitement in Asia for
their product. That being such a big market and it
already being such a dominant player in the United States,
how much can it keep its growth figures if it
doesn't come out with.

Speaker 6 (38:19):
The new It needs a new cattle what you're catalyst, Yeah, yeah,
and I mean right now, that's what we're talking about
with a client the other day is they haven't and
Mark Zuckerberg said it too, like they haven't really come
out with anything new in this They they're coming out
with the flip phone, but that's not new invention.

Speaker 3 (38:34):
They're not coming out with the iPhone like they did
in seven, or the iPad or the Apple Watch or
that AirPods, all that stuff. All the new innovations they
had they failed so far. The vision pro they're quietly
discontinuing that the Apple car ten billion dollars down to
drain because they never even brought it to market. So
they got to come out with new things to keep
it exciting, otherwise it could die off like an IBM.

Speaker 4 (38:57):
Well, and it still has the pe of around thirty,
which is quite high for company that's not growing.

Speaker 5 (39:02):
Yeah, at this point, and you have you know, it's
still three point four trillion dollars market cap, and yeah, growth.

Speaker 3 (39:09):
Going anywhere, but can't it grow like it's been growing.
If they don't come out with anything new, doesn't seem
like they can. And that's probably why there's a lot
of that sentiment around it.

Speaker 5 (39:18):
Something I mentioned about those bank stocks, and I think
the reason they're performing so well is the the the reinversion,
so you know, getting the strengthening in the curve. We
had the inverted curve for so long, right, and normally
when interest rates do increase, the banks to do a
little better. But even though it interest rates increase, we
still have the inverted curve for over eighteen months, and

(39:39):
now we've had the steepening of the curve. And I
think that's definitely what's given these banks a little bit
of a catalyst move higher because think about what they're
doing is, you know, loans to loans, and so it
has to have a normal yield curve for their business
model to be working.

Speaker 4 (39:54):
It is strong, and the whole index has been strong.
We talked about three AM the leading stock this year,
primarily because they hit a three year high after they
reported fourth current quarter earnings that beat expectations, boosted by
higher sales of industrial adhesives. Tapes and electronics. So Netflix
jumped on Thursday with a Thursday new all time high,

(40:17):
new all time high, up fifteen percent. They're going to
raise subscriptions, and it's interesting because their quarter wasn't spectacular.
A couple pennies higher in revenue, a couple of pennies
higher in earnings.

Speaker 5 (40:30):
They had more growth.

Speaker 4 (40:32):
Yeah, more subscribers, what thirteen fourteen million more subscribers.

Speaker 5 (40:36):
And they said in America, Argentina and Europe they're rising
the prices. So that's obviously a good thing for me.
I just I really love if you look at Netflix's pe,
it's nothing crazy.

Speaker 4 (40:47):
No, you're right.

Speaker 5 (40:48):
And also the sports thing is really going to give
them that catalyst in future years that they're not really
there yet.

Speaker 4 (40:55):
Yeah, they're just starting in that arena, aren't they that arena? Haha?
Like I did that. It was good. Hey, let's talk
to me, let's talk a little. Ev I got I
got some I love my tesla. Right, we all know
that I think I've been but I think I've been
honest about the range problem. Uh, the backup lights are terrible.
Every morning I back into my parking spot and I'm

(41:16):
not a backer in her I back in because if
I don't back in, I can't get out of the
car because there's a pole. There's no like camera, there's
a pole there. There is a camera, but it's I
don't trust the camera and one of those backup light
have trust issues, trust my wife's. I brought my wife's
car a couple of weeks ago because she needed service, right,
and I'm backing up and man, it is bright as

(41:37):
can be back there. I can see the pole, not
a problem, but the Tesla you really really have to look.
So not a big fan of the backup light. I
discovered another issue last week. I got a nail in
one of my tires and it was kind of cool
because the nail was in the car. I could clearly
see the nail and I was losing about two pounds
of pressure a day of one. Wonder, what's gonna happen
if I get a flat tire because there's no spare.

(41:59):
But then half of the cars the country don't have
spars anymore. Yeah, because it's a new thing because they
figured out they can get away with it, right. And
so I had the nail on the tire. So I
went to the tire store and I learned that my tires,
which had seventeen thousand miles on them, were shot and
needed to be replaced. On further study, I found this

(42:20):
is not unusual, as the additional weight on the desert
heat does tend to eat up tires. But a car
guy friend of mine said, I probably could have gotten
another five thousand miles out of them, because here's what happens.
You go into the tire store and they have a
chart there, and the chart said, if you get down
to four thirty seconds of an inch of tread, you
need to replace them. And my buddy, who's the car guy, said, no,

(42:45):
two thirty seconds is when when the fed federal government
says you need to replace them. That's not for thirty seconds.

Speaker 5 (42:50):
Well it's it's the Abraham Lincoln course.

Speaker 4 (42:53):
That's that's yeah, that's that's a good that's a very
good trick. And I think that's a four to thirty
second deal. So that's that would go with the tire company.
But I said to the tire guy, well, wait a second,
I'm only seventeen months and I'm about halfway through my lease.
I've already burned up a set of tires. Now if
I put on new tires. At the end of the lease,
I'm gonna burn them up again. They're gonna want to
ding me for the tires. I said, I'm gonna wait

(43:14):
another four or five months. This guy was good. He goes,
I'm sorry, sure, I don't feel safe letting you drive
out of here with those tires. Thought that that's good.
That's good you earned some new tires. Anyway, It's it's
kind of funny because I thought the tire store would
be really, really busy with all of the snowbirds in town.
Turns out that tire store business is best in the

(43:35):
summer because that's when the heat has to eat up
your tires. And he said, we like summer way way
more than I'll tell you what.

Speaker 5 (43:44):
It's the cool thing about my new car. I figured
out it can like drive by itself. Yep, like completely
like steer by itself. You don't touch the wheel.

Speaker 4 (43:53):
I mean, you don't have to have to subscribe for that.

Speaker 3 (43:56):
No subscribe with Tesla.

Speaker 4 (43:58):
Oh yeah yeah, oh yeah, Tesla the self driving to day.

Speaker 5 (44:00):
They have all these like cameras around the thing and
it just does it for you.

Speaker 4 (44:03):
Yeah, the Tesil is a subscription thing, and it's like
one hundred and fifty a months or some stupid thing.

Speaker 5 (44:07):
I mean, because I think with the Tesla one you
can also have it. It does the pedal for you.
I still have to do the pedal.

Speaker 4 (44:13):
I know. I think I was doing the pedal. I
have they rolled it out. They gave me thirty days free, right, okay,
And I didn't like that. I wanted that the car
would drive well, the car would drive itself to a point,
and then it would ask me to get involved. And
I'm thinking, you know, either you're gonna do this or
I'm going to do this right one or the other.

Speaker 5 (44:31):
You know, I'll tell you what. It's really interesting to
not have your hands on the wheel while you're driving
by a semi, isn't it. You're just like you have
to ask the trust.

Speaker 4 (44:39):
Yeah. Yeah, the self the whole self driving thing is is.

Speaker 5 (44:42):
But I was thinking about the self driving thing, and
you know, five ten years into the future they talk
about they talk about it, and I'm like, I think
humans are gonna hate it because if you have a
self driving vehicle, it's not going to let you speed. No, like,
there's gonna be regulations on it.

Speaker 4 (44:59):
People. Addition, it'll be like let me drive. You can
put cruise control on like I like to use. I'm
with my Tesla. I have a hard time going under sixty. Well,
they frown on sixty in town. So I used cruise
control a lot going up Swan or Craik Orft or
Sunrise whatever, I know. Wherever I'm on an open a stretch,

(45:19):
I use my cruise control and the car thinks it's
smarter than me. And I was. I told you Todd.
I was driving up Swan one day and I had
just gone to the grocery store and I had a
whole car full of groceries, and I'm doing fifty five,
which is kind of like my Max on Swan, and
I've got the cruise control on, and this car pulls
out about two hundred yards in front of me. It's

(45:40):
crosses Swan to you know, come. I was going northbound.
I wanted to go southbound. The car sees it freaks out,
slams on the brakes. My groceries go flying. So that's
the end of that. Yeah, no more cruise control for
me in town on the freeway. On the freeway, if
I'm behind somebody doing fifty five, it's going to do
fifty oh, you're right. There are governors that get involved

(46:04):
there and there's going to be things going forward with
it will limit your speed. I don't know that it
will go that far.

Speaker 5 (46:11):
Well, they definitely won't let you go too far over
the speed limit. There'll be some type of regulation right exactly. Well,
as we're coming up on the end of this, well,
obviously want to let everyone know if you want to
take advantage of our free financial plan, just give us
a call five to zero five four to four four
nine zero nine. We've been helping a lot of people
intricate plans, so many of them were really busy, so

(46:31):
we might not be able to get you in the
first week, but definitely give us a call. We'll get
you on the books. And as always, when markets hit
new all time highs like they did during the week
this week, you should review your financial plan, look at
what your risk tolerance should be. We can put your
current holdings in our risk analyzing tool see the risk
level of your portfolio as well as your individual risk level.

(46:53):
See how far they're off. See if there's any recommendations
or strategies we can implement now. As well, as of course,
we have Trump for four so the tax picture is
pretty clear. Let's put together some strategies and take advantage
of it while we can just give us call five
to zero five four four four nine zero nine.

Speaker 4 (47:09):
I've got a client, a new client. We met last
week and he came in and he has been he
has had no earned income over the last two years
on purpose. He got tired of his job and he's
been very successful and so he went off on his
own and you're going to be start flipping houses. But
he's had no earned income. What an ideal time to

(47:31):
have done Roth conversions. But no one mentioned it to him,
as the other firm that even no one even thought
about it. And so those are the kinds of things
we can do. We'll be back after this break with
more of The Money Matter Show, the second half of
The Money Matter Show. Actually, thanks for joining us.

Speaker 3 (47:53):
Welcome back to the second hour of The Moneymatter Show.
Those of you tuning in. I'm Dylan Greenberg. I'm here
with Dave Show with Todd Glick and Dan Greenberg. We
have the Dow up two point two percent for the week.
The SMP five hundred was up one point eight percent,
the Nasdaq was up one point seven percent. The Russell
two thousand was up one point five percent, and the
equal weighted SMP five hundred was up one point two percent.

(48:14):
For the year, the Dow is up four point four percent,
SMP is up three point seven percent, nasdak's up three
point three percent, and the Russell two thousands up three
and a half and the rsp's up four It started
January has been good. People are happy with Trump and
what he's been saying and how the market's going to
react to it has been positive.

Speaker 5 (48:32):
One of the executive orders that took my interest was
the Stargate Executive Order. That's the project for the AI
revolution that we want to have here centered in the
United States of America. Over five hundred billion dollars has
been committed so far. The goal is to get up
to a trillion. Dean talked a little bit about it
and in his monologue soft Bank is one of the

(48:53):
moss is one of the head investors, also Sam Altmant
of Open Ai and Larry Ellison of or Cool. We
had invested in or We did a block an Oracle
a couple of months ago, thinking that they are going
to be one of the AI revolutions. So that was
a nice thing to see him part of that three.
But I thought was very interesting was obviously Sam Altman
being in that top three because of Elon Musk hatred

(49:14):
of Sam Altman, and we saw Youon Musk kind of
already talk not bad about Trump, but have his own
words about having Sam Altman involved in that project. Because
for those who don't know, Elon Musk and Sam Altman
created an Open AI together as a nonprofit. Sam Altman
wants to create it into a for profit. And also
Elon doesn't things that Sam's doing the same type of

(49:36):
security and the safety that should be implemented when you're
building out these type of these type of AI chatbots.
So he's not a big fan of Sam Altman. But nonetheless,
Donald Trump had very high things to say about Sam
Altman when he brought him onto the team. And it
was really interesting in that press conference of all three
of those tech giants, the one that they kept bringing

(49:56):
up was the healthcare that AI was really gonna help
and solving. They think that we're going to solve cancers
at an unprecedented rate from five to ten years from now,
and also being helping doctors diagnose things that they're not
able to see or put things together by putting all
health records together and aggregating it into one easy place

(50:17):
for the doctor to see and not have to rely
on clients giving subjective answers like that.

Speaker 4 (50:23):
We've been saying for a year on the show that
probably the big winner in AI is going to be healthcare.
I think there's so many things that can be done there.
It's interesting as I see Trump sitting there next to
Elon Musk whispering in each other's ears. You know, I'm thinking,
how long can this go on? How long can this
possibly last? Two alpha males that are how long can

(50:43):
this possible? How long can this love fest actually last?
We'll have to see. Speaking of Elon Musk, Tesla was
lower on Tuesday, while Chinese electric vehicle stocks were higher
after Trump didn't immediately impost tariffs on the Chinese companies.
I'm a little puzzled by this. Frankly, I have not
heard a lot about Chinese EV's being widely distributed in

(51:06):
the US. I didn't realize they were a big competitor
for Tesla in the US.

Speaker 5 (51:11):
I think the only one that I do I do
think there's current tariffs on EV's aren't there, yes, from yes,
from China, Yes, yes, so maybe if but I mean
it's if he reverses that.

Speaker 4 (51:24):
How many Chinese evs are driving around the US.

Speaker 5 (51:28):
I do feel like if BYD was allowed to be
sell here without the tariffs, but I don't know how
Trump would allow that.

Speaker 3 (51:34):
So yeah, I would just go against everything he's been saying. Yeah,
I don't see that happening.

Speaker 5 (51:39):
So yeah, I said, it's a little puzzling.

Speaker 4 (51:41):
It is a little little puzzling to me.

Speaker 5 (51:43):
Tesla also has gone up for no reason either.

Speaker 4 (51:45):
So and I wondered about that. I've got profit taking
with a question mark on my notis it had run
a fifty percent after the election, while their business is slowly.

Speaker 5 (51:55):
And this is the first week where we saw a
little bit of a crack in the relationship of Trump
and Elon potentially, so maybe investors are like, Okay, this
might be the time to take the profit.

Speaker 4 (52:04):
Yeah, it could be an I'm you know, we've wondered
all along what can Trump possibly do to help payback
Elon for his support, And of course one of the
things would be to put massive tariffs on every car
that's not coming into the every electric vehicle coming into
the US Tesla being the only US car that's one built, manufactured,

(52:28):
and assembled in the United States. Is Tesla Model Y
the only one, So maybe maybe maybe that's the maybe that's.

Speaker 3 (52:35):
Going to be.

Speaker 5 (52:36):
But with that AI Infrastructure Executive, we saw really anything
connected to the AI infrastructure really get a bid throughout
this week. One of the stocks that we've talked about
multiple times on this show is the v RT. The
Variative Holdings was one of the Darling well not the Darling,
so one of the.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
The up and comers.

Speaker 4 (52:53):
I think it's a good term. It was the number
one performing this piece.

Speaker 5 (52:55):
But you know, Darling is saying, you're kind of people
know about it. Not many people know about it, right,
It was kind of the player of the year type
of thing. But yeah, the VRT is cooling technology specializes
in the cooling and those black Well chips that Navidio makes,
and pretty much any chip after that generation is going
to need these extra technologies that can cool it because

(53:16):
the AC isn't powerful enough.

Speaker 4 (53:18):
So it's so and why is that Because it runs
so hot.

Speaker 5 (53:21):
Right, it just runs so hot, so you actually have
to have the liquid cooling embedded into the chip and
it allows it to actually cool from not an external
but actually through the internal So it's just a way
easier efficient way to cool it. And VRT specialize in
that technology. So that's got to an old time high
this week. Also NLR, the nuclear ETF we were talking

(53:44):
about stocks like oaklow SMR, the small modu reactors hit
new all time highs. Anything with the data infrastructure got
a bid this week. So definitely there's going to be
a big build out. And we saw that because that executive.

Speaker 4 (53:58):
Order seemed like it was a a bit of a
disconnect too between the vt VT, v RT, v RT
thank you, the VRT and video. Uh v r T
has been just almost shadowing and video video goes up,
v RT goes up, and Vidya goes down VIA. So
my thinking has been if you have in video, you
don't really want v r T. But there's was a

(54:20):
disconnect this week and video didn't really do much a.

Speaker 5 (54:23):
Little about three percent new all time high.

Speaker 4 (54:26):
Right, it really did did much much better than in
video this week, and I was happy to see that.

Speaker 5 (54:32):
Another stock that got a little bit of an increase.
I see it on your on your list is the
Nova Nordis. Yeah, on Friday, they got a little seven
percent jump in the pre mark. I'm not sure how
they held it, but it was. It was relation to
one of their new drugs, a new.

Speaker 4 (54:47):
Weight lost drug. Right, and the problem the the not
the problem no more. Nordists is down fifty percent from
its all time high, so they were looking for any
reason to buy that stock. And uh, they announced that
their new weight loss drug is in stage one trials.
We're only one hundred and twenty five people and it's
stage one. I mean nothing, right, but there was a

(55:10):
twenty two percent weight loss in the first thirty six weeks,
and I guess took that as a reasonable A heck
of a week in Eli Lilly on their competitor, we've
got down to seven twenty I think early in the week,
finished the week around seven to eighty. So uh, that stock. Again,
both of those stocks have been struggling with us thinking

(55:32):
maybe people aren't going to be using these, maybe they're
they're going to go either.

Speaker 5 (55:36):
And of course literally not struggling as much as Novo
because of their Alzheimer's drugging and they it's funny you
see these Eli Lilly commercials about their alzheimer They don't
even have the drug yet, but they're already coming out
with commercials. Yeah, we're here for you, we're working for you.
Were with this close to that prob I'm like, that's
bold to be throwing those commercials out there.

Speaker 4 (55:56):
And we've seen analysts and the Lily has been pretty
close cheeked about it, close to us about it. They
haven't really said a lot about it. It hasn't been a
lot of Lily hype other than we're you know, we're
working for you, that sort of thing, right, But analyst
reports I've been reading are this this is a major
deal that's coming for Alzheimer's, and let's hope it is.

(56:17):
What a horrible disease and what a wonderful thing it
would be to have something that could delay that.

Speaker 5 (56:22):
You know, what's the interesting place of the market that
I keep my eye on, just because I'm a runner.
I have the garment app at the Garment Watch, I mean,
and they specialize in technology that is GPS oriented things,
so things that track your stuff, but sports other stuff
like ekg and and things like that. So remember Apple
Watch how they had to get rid of their EKGP

(56:43):
because of the lawsuit that they couldn't use it. So
The idea is that Garment just came out with their
own EKG and so that's gonna be an interesting stock
to see if they get a bounce up. But what
I when reading and re searching Garment, I saw that
Copin was actually somehow an industry competitor the Garment and KOPN.

(57:08):
Kopi N is the yes, but the tickers KOPN and
if you looked at that stock, I mean originally it
was made aware to us about this was the company
that makes the glasses for the vision Pro for the Apple,
and that's what's going to help this thing go up.
But we've actually seen the vision Pro go away. But
ever since the vision Pro goes away, this stock has

(57:28):
just gone up from about fifty cents to about two bucks.
And and uh, the only reason I bring it up
is because the Garment expands its global reach with ekg
app and it somehow is connected to that. So I
found that interesting. I know, Dyan, you've been in it
for a while.

Speaker 3 (57:43):
Yeah, I got some shares of coping, So dude, but
are you profitable? Are you profitable?

Speaker 4 (57:49):
I am okay, now that.

Speaker 3 (57:51):
Wasn't for a while. So yeah, the discontinuation of the
vision pro kind of help speak.

Speaker 5 (57:58):
It was up like seventy five days.

Speaker 4 (58:00):
Well, on the other side of that, coined Walgreens. Of
course we know about Walgreens struggling to stay relevant. Did
you see what happened to Walgreens? Justice departments sued them, accusing.

Speaker 5 (58:11):
They managed to do that?

Speaker 4 (58:12):
Are you begetting accusing them of exacerbating the US opioid
epidemic by feeling unlawful prescriptions?

Speaker 7 (58:20):
Oh?

Speaker 5 (58:20):
Wow?

Speaker 4 (58:21):
That dropped eight percent on twoday. I'm you accusing me this?
I mean, struggling to stay alive and you're gonna what
are you gonna get the last few dollars they've got
before they go under? What are you doing?

Speaker 5 (58:31):
You got to blame someone for the opioid pandemic.

Speaker 4 (58:34):
We're a country that wants to blame someone. Yeah, one person,
ideally or one company.

Speaker 5 (58:40):
Why blame the person that made the opioid. Blame the
people that filled the prescriptions.

Speaker 4 (58:43):
Yeah it is, it is.

Speaker 5 (58:45):
Even though they were required to do some I mean.

Speaker 4 (58:46):
Yeah, and then the doctor gives a prescription to Walgreens.
What are they supposed to do? No? I mean I
don't know. Maybe you can't. You can't. I'm not going
to fill this doctor. According to US, this is not
good for he's a he's a peel merchant, right, how
are they? I don't know. I don't know. I was
speaking of that Moderna without COVID. That stock has given

(59:08):
up more than ninety percent of its value. Moderna but
moved higher on Tuesday after the company received get this
a five hundred and ninety million dollars from the US
Health and Human Service Department to speed up development of
bird flu vaccine.

Speaker 5 (59:23):
Oh, that's the next one coming up.

Speaker 4 (59:25):
Bird.

Speaker 3 (59:26):
There is a big avian flu thing going around and
that's why eggs have been struggling.

Speaker 4 (59:30):
And yeah, what's up with eggs?

Speaker 3 (59:33):
Costco didn't get their shipment last weekend, and we looked
it up and it was there's a big av and
flu issue going on.

Speaker 4 (59:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (59:39):
I was thinking about to hit Costco's distribution.

Speaker 5 (59:42):
I dis ordered the Jimmy Deans.

Speaker 4 (59:44):
I was in frising the covers. Covers were almost bare.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
I was able to Jones had it fine, bake shells
are full. But yeah, eight dollars an egg a dozen.

Speaker 4 (59:54):
Yeah, And I think we saw in the CPI report
last that we talked about last week, eggs were number
one in terms of value, and of course.

Speaker 5 (01:00:03):
The why can't they just make more chickens.

Speaker 4 (01:00:06):
Cal Maine Foods, which is the top egg producer in
the country new all time high, so things are good
at cal Maine Foods.

Speaker 3 (01:00:15):
All right.

Speaker 4 (01:00:16):
We've talked a lot about Intel on the show and
their struggles, and I think last week I was a
little hysterical about it. You guys were laughing at talking
about how they couldn't find their way to the office.
So ideal, a little research. What happened to Intel? How
do you go wrong? How do you take a company?

(01:00:37):
You go back fifteen years? They were king of the mountain.
PCs were hot, They were the number one ship maker,
and when you went out to buy a PC, you
wanted Intel inside on the PC right to know it
was all good. AMD was was a second rate citizens
struggling to keep up. Intel's declined primarily them from his

(01:01:00):
failure to adapt, primarily in the mobile market, particularly by
not supplying chips for early smartphones like Apple. They were
given that opportunity, they didn't take it, and that led
to a missed opportunity to allowed competitors to dominate that space.
So take that number one hit right, Compound into their

(01:01:21):
manufacturing process was not advanced. They rested on their laurels
if you will, number two problem and then been completely
ineffective at competing at AI. They haven't been able to
do anything in AI. You never hear about Intel when
it comes to AI. You know, in Nvidia, maybe some

(01:01:42):
AMD so and so it's getting Intel. You never hear
anything about Intel and AI.

Speaker 3 (01:01:47):
Yet they're building twenty billion dollars worth of factories up
in Phoenix.

Speaker 4 (01:01:51):
They are, they are, but it's just Dylan. It's just
been a misstep after misstep. And like I say, for years,
they were king of the mountain when they were the
PCs were out there, but not anymore. And you used
to I guess, no matter how big your company is,
no matter how great you are, you can't You can
only make so many wrong decisions.

Speaker 3 (01:02:09):
That's a fear with Apple what we were talking about.

Speaker 4 (01:02:11):
Yeah, No, I guess it.

Speaker 3 (01:02:12):
Fear with Apple. Is it in the midst of that
fallof I totally so big, I can't expand anymore.

Speaker 4 (01:02:19):
I totally get that. Yeah, I totally get you know,
speaking of that to Warner Brothers Discovery, they were so
lucky when they were spun off from at and T
AT and T gave them CNN what a deal? Right?
CNN Warner Brothers Discovery shares had risen four percent in
the last twelve months, despite a market that's up twenty

(01:02:42):
some odd percent. Right Edge lower on Thursday after CNN
announced they'll be laying off hundreds of employees as their
viewership is plunged. And if you'll get a chart, it's terrifying.
If you're working at CNN, you've got to be really
concerned about where this is going.

Speaker 5 (01:02:59):
Want news that's not real news?

Speaker 4 (01:03:01):
Well, and I kept thinking to myself, if you keep
banging on the same drum, eventually, people are just going
to tune you out. They're going to tune you out,
and it can't be what Ted Turner envisioned. I'm old
enough to remember when CNN first came on the air,
and I loved CNN, and I think the whole country

(01:03:22):
loves cn in the whole world, because it was where
you went for news, because it was news.

Speaker 5 (01:03:27):
You didn't have the access to information at the time
too either though.

Speaker 4 (01:03:30):
Well, but it wasn't someone's opinion of the news. You're
absolutely right.

Speaker 5 (01:03:33):
But people's beliefs and institutions were higher than so you
believed what the news told you more at that time. Well,
I think because it was your source of information.

Speaker 4 (01:03:41):
Right, but it also was the news.

Speaker 5 (01:03:44):
Well exactly what you're saying, you know what I mean,
they were an institution. Whereas now the news isn't just
that Walter Konkake, It's it's your phone, it's your website,
it's your email inbox, it's all these sources that you're
getting this information that all of a sudden, this source
tells you it contradicts what CNN's telling you. So now
all of a sudden, you're like, well, I don't know
if CNN's telling me the truth, where fifty years ago

(01:04:05):
it was only CNN and the newspaper. I kind of agreed.

Speaker 4 (01:04:09):
Actually, a major story out there, like the Obama's getting divorced, right,
I've got to google four or five different sites and
then make my own decision. If you don't know these
days for me, you just don't know. There's so much,
so much fake news out there. Hey, my friend, my
friend Candy, who's one of the has been a top
realtor in town, Hike Candy for many, many years. We

(01:04:31):
were talking about the real estate and I've been pretty
vocal about Tucson real estate prices coming down about ten percent,
and she said, now that hasn't happened, And so I
went and got a report and she's right.

Speaker 5 (01:04:43):
Shockingly, a subjection always work.

Speaker 4 (01:04:46):
The realtor knows more than I do about real estate shocking.
The real estate prices in Tucson over the last twelve
months up three percent, the median median being the middle
number average. The mean or the average would be very
distorted because there's a lot of multimillion dollar sales, but
of course this is the median up three percent, up

(01:05:08):
six point one percent in the last two years. Marana
the hottest area, god Go Marana up eleven percent. The
slowest area of Veil, up one percent, which is kind
of interesting. Houses are staying on the market longer though.
In twenty twenty three, the December of twenty three, the

(01:05:30):
average time on the market was three point one month.
Now it's three point eight months. The average days on
the market fifty in twenty four, forty in twenty three.
To closed sales, this is kind of interesting. Closed sales
in the in Tucson area unchanged from from twenty three
to twenty four unchanged. The big drop off in Oral

(01:05:54):
Valley though, Oral Valley down thirteen percent in sales. Now,
that could be something as simple as a new subdivision
opened in twenty three and they didn't have that in
twenty four. It could be something that simple.

Speaker 3 (01:06:03):
Got these new builds though they're no buying down. Know
I'm saying they're buying down. It might because are these
existing homes.

Speaker 4 (01:06:09):
It says closed sales numbers, numbers of sales, Okay, it
doesn't say what price. The big the big winner in
terms of is Veil, and of course that would be
just new subdivision after new subjucsion. Right.

Speaker 5 (01:06:21):
I don't go out to not much growth, which is interesting.

Speaker 4 (01:06:23):
I don't got to bail because they have an electric
car and.

Speaker 5 (01:06:25):
As you said, the home prices didn't grow.

Speaker 4 (01:06:27):
But is funny, Todd. I don't go out to bail
because they have an electric car and I'd have to recharge, right,
so I don't have that kind of time. It's funny
veils quite away. I got a better joke than that, Okay,
tell me a better one, all right, anyway, can't right,
I was wrong.

Speaker 5 (01:06:42):
A pig that does karate? What's his famous move?

Speaker 4 (01:06:45):
A pig that does karate, yeah, pork chop. Yeah. Oh yeah,
that's pretty is.

Speaker 5 (01:06:50):
Better than yours. So we have another client that is
a real estate agent as well, really successful one here
in Tucson, and she's she's like, yeah, the slow down
is and I mean I have eight closings this month. Yeah,
So it depends on the clientele. Well, you know, a
million plus houses aren't doing any problem here. It's it's
the new home buyer that relies on interest rates being

(01:07:11):
it so high it makes it really hard.

Speaker 3 (01:07:13):
It's also gonna be interesting if we see another uptick
like we did after twenty twenty with all these LA fires.
We're gonna see a lot of uptick of California people
coming in here again.

Speaker 4 (01:07:20):
I think so.

Speaker 3 (01:07:21):
But we do have a client. He just bought a
new build up in the Or Valley area, and they
paid for his buydown and all the other credits because
they just want to have the house filled. Four and
a half percent, right, you got, Okay, you put ten
percent down, good, which you original was gonna put twenty percent.
Now he had it to do it. Like he said

(01:07:41):
last time we talked to him, he was gonna put
twenty and he ended up doing ten because they paid
for the buydown and all that.

Speaker 5 (01:07:46):
Yeah, I mean I can speak to this. They have
these programs that your intro year can be as low
as the four. In the next year is five, six,
and then seven, and they're buying down your rates for
a certain so sometimes you might get the four for
five years. And so they're coming up with these different products.
You know, they're still the thirty year loan, but they're
not necessarily just fixed interest. They have these built in

(01:08:09):
so like mine, for example, wasn't just a fixed thirty
year ARM well not arm fixed, it was it has
a seven year at a certain rate, and then after
that it goes up to the higher rate. So you
have all these different products that have these different kind
of terms built into them with lower rates, and that's
exactly what they're doing to get the sales. I was

(01:08:29):
talking to my mom, who works with a big home
builder here nationally, and even my dad who talks to
all the southern Arizona home builders, and they're all saying
the same thing. Sales numbers wise are fine. We're getting
the numbers in, but the profit isn't there because they're
buying down. They just got to hit their numbers, and

(01:08:49):
that's what they care more about than profitability. And if
you saw KB home dr whore in Polti Lenar, they've
all kind of come down from their highs because investors
just start to realize that the earnings aren't coming in.
The revenue figures are hitting right, they're really nice to
look at, but after all the all the expenses that
are coming from these interest bydowns, it's it's not coming

(01:09:12):
into a really big profit.

Speaker 4 (01:09:13):
It's interesting deal. And you mentioned I had the first
self one in Tucson forty five years ago. My realty
friend Candy had the first million dollar home sale in Tucson.
It was a big, big deal. And it wasn't that
long ago. It was a big big deal. Now two three,
four million dollar sales are common, very common. A million
dollar sales in the foothills in the millions like a

(01:09:36):
start at home almost to.

Speaker 3 (01:09:37):
Feel ituld be if nowadays if it was a ten
million dollar home, yeah, soon it'd be the same.

Speaker 4 (01:09:42):
It was a million You never saw a million dollar sale. Yeah,
it was just unheard of.

Speaker 5 (01:09:46):
And and well that's just a key thing to inflation.
I mean, they've become since nineteen seventy that's what happens
to asset prices. We have a world based on debts,
so more and more debt which has been allowed because
we had rates going from eighteen percents down to zero
over the last forty five years. Sure now we'd haven't
and so it's going to be really interesting. I don't

(01:10:08):
think the easy money in real estate's gone. It's not
going to happen again for probably two or three more
decades before rates kind of get back up to maybe
the tens and then they fall again. Because for real
estate and bonds fixed income like products to really do well,
you have to have interest rates being edging lower over
a period of.

Speaker 4 (01:10:25):
Time, or or or a ton of people coming from
another state, a ton you know demand, Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:10:31):
Because it will I mean, just if you how do
you satisfy the debt?

Speaker 4 (01:10:34):
When we saw that during the pantry levels or two signs,
prices just exploded.

Speaker 5 (01:10:38):
But we had low debt at that time too.

Speaker 4 (01:10:40):
No question, But it wouldn't have mattered.

Speaker 5 (01:10:43):
I mean, would have been the same twenty five percent
year over your crow.

Speaker 4 (01:10:46):
No, but most of a lot more.

Speaker 5 (01:10:48):
And that's all I'm saying is with these higher interest rates,
we're not going to ever see those growth numbers again.

Speaker 4 (01:10:52):
Not for a long time. Yeah, I don't know if
it'll be. It depends, It really depends. It depends on
how much info we have if people not under.

Speaker 5 (01:11:00):
This administration with I mean, if you're cutting spending, you're
not going to have more debt being created. So I
think with this, with our asset price system that we
have based on debt, you have to have more and
more debt for these prices to keep going higher.

Speaker 4 (01:11:14):
The one thing that always always goes higher over time
our real estate prices. It has over forty years, almost
every almost every asset class goes higher over time, including stocks.

Speaker 5 (01:11:24):
Because it's in relation to the dollar, which because it's
in it's priced in dollars.

Speaker 4 (01:11:29):
No, I don't think there's a relation. Could you look
at the dollar over.

Speaker 5 (01:11:32):
How does the value of something that's priced in something
have no relation?

Speaker 4 (01:11:35):
Do you look at the value of the dollar over
the last five years, It isn't going to even come close.

Speaker 5 (01:11:39):
Look at the value of the dollars since nineteen seventy days.

Speaker 4 (01:11:42):
It's not going to even come close.

Speaker 5 (01:11:44):
Do you know how much the dollar has eroded since nineteen.

Speaker 4 (01:11:46):
Seventy Probably zero, Probably close to zero.

Speaker 5 (01:11:50):
You're not sounding very smart right now.

Speaker 4 (01:11:52):
Well, now I'm talking in terms of where the dollar
is right. Dollars right now is at the highest level
in how many years?

Speaker 5 (01:11:58):
That's not the question. The dollar has eroded significantly since
nineteen seventies, since we got off the gold standard, the
purchasing power. I know, the dollar, it was gone down.

Speaker 4 (01:12:10):
We will be back after this break with more of
the Money Matter Show.

Speaker 5 (01:12:24):
Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg and David Sherwood.
What's going to be interesting is Trump and Putin? When
are they gonna talk? Yeah, that's going to be a
big show. Are they talking or have they talked?

Speaker 4 (01:12:36):
Well?

Speaker 5 (01:12:36):
Putin said today that he wants to.

Speaker 3 (01:12:37):
He wants to get with Trump and talked about the war.

Speaker 4 (01:12:40):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:12:40):
What do you think about RTX. We've got a lot
of clients here with raytheon kind of been stalling out
there and it's all time highs since I reached it
maybe a month and a half ago. Is there another
war on the rise? And we hope not. It seems like,
if anything, wars are going away with the current administration.
Do you exit RTX? Do you keep in it. It's
got a nice dividend. Where are we thinking, still.

Speaker 3 (01:12:59):
Gonna need to events, still gonna have bombs, still gonna
have missiles made and everything like that. The growth for
it might not be as high with Trump because Trump,
like in his last administration, didn't want wars and they
had no wars going on. But you do have that dividend,
like you're saying.

Speaker 4 (01:13:13):
So I'll think you figure out.

Speaker 3 (01:13:15):
I was just saying, if you've got a good position
and it stay there with a dividend, m I just
flatline for a bit.

Speaker 4 (01:13:20):
But if he's able to convince Putin to end the
war in Ukraine, and he's able to stop the attacks
on Israel, you've got to believe raytheon is is a
little high right now.

Speaker 3 (01:13:31):
Well, Hamas and Israel agreed on a compromise. They finished
their thing. They got the hostages back in.

Speaker 5 (01:13:38):
To be fairly like four or five times now last Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:13:42):
They released all the hostages at least this time.

Speaker 5 (01:13:45):
It was it all. I thought I saw three. Are
they all gone though? We're all safe?

Speaker 3 (01:13:49):
That's what it said.

Speaker 4 (01:13:50):
Yeah, I saw three as well, But we're supposed to
be more later in the week and It's one of
those things that's been going on so long you don't
really watch it that closely.

Speaker 5 (01:13:59):
Right, Yeah, and it's hard to know what's the truth.

Speaker 4 (01:14:02):
You want out better stocks over the last year or
two has been the Costco. Interestingly, union workers at the
company voted to authorize a strike ahead of their January
thirty first contract expiration, and so you think, well, that's
got to be that can't be a good thing. It
turns out that out of Costco's total workforce, five percent

(01:14:23):
are unionized. So I'm thinking if those five percent decide
to strike, they'll probably figure out a way to replace them.

Speaker 5 (01:14:30):
Yeah, they probably don't have so much power.

Speaker 4 (01:14:32):
No, No, bollying was interesting. Boyne was up fifteen percent
in the last ninety days as it's kind of quietly
trying to recover higher on Friday, despite saying they expect
Q four to be below estimates. Guess what they burned
through last quarter? Three point five billion dollars. Three point
five Now that last in fairness, the last quarter was

(01:14:54):
the strike. But they burned through three point five billion
dollars in a quarter. They have not had a quarterly
profit since twenty eighteen, and I guess the good news
there is without an E, you don't have a PE, right,
everybody can kind of decide what what the stock is worth.
The negative staff, they don't have a PE. But and

(01:15:16):
the deliveries, you know, as we know less than half
of Airbus, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:15:21):
They're slow though. Their Airbus and Bowen are having delayed
deliveries to these airlines. And that's airline prices are going
to go up this year. From what they were talking
about last week, airline airline having issues of they can't
expand their flight schedules if they don't have the airline
or if they don't have airplanes being delivered on time.

Speaker 4 (01:15:37):
You know, it's interesting a lot of airline news on
this week. United rows three percent to a new all
time high at the open on Wednesday after a better
than expected outlook. United expects to earn thirty nine percent
more than analysts were projecting. That's pretty significant.

Speaker 3 (01:15:53):
The average airline price for a good deal in January
this year so far this month was three hundred and
four dollars, so twelve percent from last January. Okay, it
might be what.

Speaker 5 (01:16:03):
It's interesting you say United's at all time high. American
airlines more than doubled over the last three four months,
but they're nowhere close to an all time high. I
mean they're they're almost set levels still the pandemic they were.

Speaker 4 (01:16:15):
So last week they're going to lose more money than
was expected.

Speaker 5 (01:16:18):
Right, But I mean they were at eight dollars and
they are profitable, and they ran all the way up
to twenty.

Speaker 4 (01:16:22):
Yeah, and it's not profitable.

Speaker 5 (01:16:24):
But before the pandemic, do you see where that stock
was American, Yeah, it's like in the forty five before
the pandemic. So it's just crazy how big the pandemic
had an impact on that business because they not even
close to being where they.

Speaker 4 (01:16:36):
Were, primarily on American because we just saw United, we
saw Delta. Yeah, Friday, Alaska Air new fifty two week
high issue.

Speaker 5 (01:16:48):
American had a new fifty two week high too, to
be fair, not recently.

Speaker 3 (01:16:52):
Yeah, I wasn't like eighteen dollars. I thought that was
fifty two.

Speaker 5 (01:16:54):
Week it's a fifty two week High's just now we're
close to an all time high.

Speaker 4 (01:16:57):
I got it. Okay.

Speaker 3 (01:16:58):
American's had issues though for the last few year years
even before, like the pandemic, the way they just were
doing business, their plans were outdated all that they needed
to upgrade the cycle like Delta was going through it.
When America was good, Delta went through the cycle, upgraded
all their stuff, got business was doing better, and they
jumped America. So America's got to get through that cycle
now too. United has just been growing and becoming a

(01:17:19):
bigger company, so that's probably why that's been doing well.

Speaker 4 (01:17:22):
And Delta seems like it's become the go to airline's.

Speaker 3 (01:17:26):
They have good service. Whenever I would fly East Coast,
I fly Delta. I rarely had issues.

Speaker 4 (01:17:30):
I remember when a friend of mine was a pilot
for Western and they merged with Delta. They went, oh, man,
is this ever a step down?

Speaker 5 (01:17:36):
I'm not gonna lie. I've only used American in the
last like years.

Speaker 4 (01:17:39):
Well, you know, I was talking to a friend of
mine who flies all over the world for business, and
she's very She was right there on and she travels
the world in business, and she said, it depends on
I said, what airline do you like? She said, depends
on where I'm going. You know, if I'm flying in
the middle of the country, it's American. If I'm flying
to the East coast, it's Delta. You know, she had
a specific airline that she would use depending up on

(01:18:00):
where she was going.

Speaker 5 (01:18:02):
In the works sense, that makes sense.

Speaker 4 (01:18:04):
It does make sense because certain airlines and IY mostly
Midwest because that's where I'm from. My wife from the Midwest,
and so then I think for America and is is
Tucson to DFW two hours and then Milwaukee, Minneapolish the
two hours two more hours You're done, right, So it's
real easy.

Speaker 5 (01:18:25):
One thing I wanted to talk about is we've been
working with Kalamos for a long time. They're an ETF company.
Those who don't know ETF is an exchange traded fund
think of it as a basket of investments or financial products.

Speaker 4 (01:18:37):
Like a mutual fund that trades throughout the day.

Speaker 5 (01:18:39):
Yes, but ETFs are not necessarily just a basket of stocks.
They can be also other instruments like futures options. They
could use a lot of different strategies and then all
you have to do is just buy it. And Kalamos
has a lot of different funds. They have funds that
invest in just the infrastructure idea of companies that are
going to benefit from the infrat a extra acts or

(01:19:01):
ETFs that are just invested in high income bond funds right,
and it has a thousand different high income bonds that
you can invest in in just one ETF product. There's
another ETF product that they just came out with last
last year, and then we've started to use it, and
then we're really excited about how we can incorporate this
with financial planning. In investment planning is the structured protected ETFs.

(01:19:27):
So these products are designed to have a downside protection
of one hundred percent when they're first created, and have
a cap of participation of whatever underlying index. It follows
to a cap of say anywhere from six to nine percent.
So they every single month they'll create an ETF, say
based on the S and P five hundred, So then

(01:19:47):
they will say you have one hundred percent downside protection
if you invest in this fund on day one. That's
what they aim to have for you. And then you'll
have a cap of seven percent. So if the SMP
makes twenty, you don't make twenty, you only make seven.
But S and P loses twenty, you don't lose twenty.
You only get this. You get the zero maybe NETA

(01:20:08):
fees negative point five or something. Because there's an expense
ratio in these products. But what this gives you as
an investor is an opportunity to potentially lock in gains.
So when we're at these all time highs and you're
worried about markets turning south, well, what if you put
a per certain ten percent of your portfolio into this
product where you might be perfectly right and the market

(01:20:32):
drops twenty percent and that ten percent doesn't lose any money.
Or if you're wrong and the market does continue to
perform really, really well and it performs twenty percent this year,
you don't get the full twenty percent on that ten percent,
You only get to seven. But it's a way to
mitigate the risk on a certain percentage of your portfolio.
And it could make a lot of sense for certain
clients as it's an all time high scenario right now.

Speaker 4 (01:20:53):
Sound like an annuity to me.

Speaker 5 (01:20:55):
But the perfect thing about this is there's no surrender
schedules there. You right, That's an ETF that I can sell.
I don't have to wait till the very end of
the year, even though I'm aiming to hold it for
a year. I can sell within three months if I
want to, or I can even buy it after three
months it came out. For example, they came out with
one on January first, and then the market obviously dropped

(01:21:15):
in the first two weeks of January. So you could
invest in this product that would have one hundred and
one percent downside protection because you're investing at negative NAF
below its actual par value, so it gives even more protection,
covers even the expense ratio and.

Speaker 4 (01:21:30):
Cap ten dollars a share todd and were to be
trading it, what nine eighty is that possible? Yes, then
you bought it at nine eighty, you're guaranteed to ten bucks. Yeah,
plus plus the seven eight nine percent.

Speaker 5 (01:21:44):
If it performs that way. Yeah, so your cap actually
gets bigger if you buy a negative NAF.

Speaker 4 (01:21:48):
Okay, So that's that's that's okay, it's kind of cool. Yes,
it's very much the what annuities have made popular, but
without the surminder shirt.

Speaker 5 (01:21:57):
And they use options in behind the scenes in the
ETF to make this thing happen. And then where we
specialize that, you know, Dean's been on the floor in
Chicago to be able to understand options, and they're cala
Most is actually going to come on the show in February.
We have them booked to come on the show, and
they're going to talk about these structured products, going to
depth the curator of these ETFs, and it's a it's

(01:22:19):
a first of the kind products. I mean, you really
don't see this any other company making this. The creator
of these funds are going to come on the show
explain what these are. So if anyone has questions about
what these are, I mean, feel free to write them in.
We'll ask them to them. But we're really excited to
have them on. They're also coming out with another structured
product for bitcoin, so they're actually going to have a
product of having a cap of up to thirteen percent.

(01:22:41):
They just came out with this on the twenty second,
it'd be a cap of thirteen percent and one hundred
percent downside protection. That's what it aims to do. So
you're invested in the underlying asset of bitcoin, but you
have a protection of zero percent up to thirteen And
they're actually going to come out with one that has
a downside of ten or twenty percent and then you
have a higher cap.

Speaker 4 (01:23:00):
Right.

Speaker 5 (01:23:01):
So there's a lot of these products and I think
that's what options were originally designed to do, is mitigate volatility,
and that's that's what we've seen over the last forty
years since options have been implemented into the financial world,
and now they're just becoming easier and easier for the
retail investor to access.

Speaker 4 (01:23:16):
Right, and we know that you're having an exposure to
the market over the long term is the best way
to go. If you're giving up some if you're giving
up downside, you're also giving up upside. You would do
that because you're a nervous nelly. You pay for the
word guarantee. Yeah, you pay for the word guarantee. We'll
put todd And you would only do that because you
want to be inequity. You know they're a better way

(01:23:37):
to go than the bonds, but you do not want
to lose the money. These structured products are an interesting approach.
You know, we've been talking. Trust's been talking a lot
about tariffsa with Mexico and Canada, which I frankly don't understand.
But al coed took a hit this past week. The
CEO came out and said tariffs on Canadian imports increase

(01:24:00):
the cost of aluminum by one point five to two
billion dollars a year. That would disrupt the supply chain
and really impact automotive stocks primarily, which means we're talking
about higher prices for automobiles if that were to happen.

Speaker 5 (01:24:18):
They always don't have higher prices for automobiles because I
don't think we're gonna commodies don't seem to be getting cheaper. No,
it seems like they're going into almost a new supercycle.

Speaker 4 (01:24:28):
Yeah, and I think all of those of us who
have been around for a while remember buying houses for
what we're now paying for cars.

Speaker 5 (01:24:35):
I do.

Speaker 4 (01:24:35):
Yeah, we'll be back right after this break with more
than Money Matter Show. Thanks again for joining us.

Speaker 5 (01:24:49):
Sebastian Warsini here with Todd Gliff Junior, Dylan Greenberg, and
David Sherwood. Audi.

Speaker 4 (01:24:55):
Sebastian Audi, welcome back to the house. Hey, let's talk
a little bit about credit card dat what about it? High?
We all know that, right, the share of credit card
excuse me, the share of credit card holders just making
the minimum payments rose to ten and three quarter percent
in the third quarter of twenty four. That's the most
recent number the third quarter of twenty four. That's the

(01:25:16):
highest ever recorded and those that are more than thirty
days pass due rose to three and a half percent.
You know, that's pretty high. Thirty days or more pass
due three and a half percent. Get that it was
below the six point eight percent peak hit in the
financial crisis of eight no nine, eight o nine. The
number of people that were more than thirty days late

(01:25:38):
was double what it is right now.

Speaker 3 (01:25:41):
You know what, Dave, That number surprises me. I thought
that it would definitely be at least double digits.

Speaker 4 (01:25:45):
Yeah, yeah, you thought it was relatively low, that three
and a half percent of people are thirty days or
more path due. Yeah, yeah, I'm not shocked. I'm a
little shocked at that as well. I would have thought
it would have been a bigger number. How about you don't.

Speaker 3 (01:25:58):
Yeah, I mean from how high the debt is, but
that would be a higher number.

Speaker 4 (01:26:01):
But yeah, with with record.

Speaker 3 (01:26:04):
And especially with like the highest tress and everything to
the minimums aren't yeah crazy, So maybe that's why they're
not the worst. But that's just why debt's increasing, because
you're paying the minimum but you're having a twenty five
percent in interest rate.

Speaker 4 (01:26:17):
Yeah, we know, we know. Credit card debt is the
highest it's ever been so that's certainly a factor. You know,
the uh Joel Johnson, Joel Johnson's in the house. Hey, Joel.
Joel does a lot of work with our clients and
in accounting. Joel's a CPA here in town with his
brother Si and hey, buddy, Hey, what are you doing today?
We're doing fine? Thank you. What's going on in your world? Oh?

Speaker 7 (01:26:40):
You know, there's this annual little thing of hey, what
income did you make? And do you have to pay
taxes on it?

Speaker 4 (01:26:45):
Oh? That's all right, that's coming up, isn't it.

Speaker 5 (01:26:47):
They still make you do that.

Speaker 7 (01:26:49):
Well, you know, let's see what the horizon holds. But
for now, for this year, yes, I.

Speaker 5 (01:26:53):
Thought, I thought Trump put in an executive order that says.

Speaker 4 (01:26:55):
We don't have to pay taxes, not pay tax anymore? Right?
Do you have to pay taxes on tips? Right? Is that
gonna be the executive order? Right?

Speaker 5 (01:27:00):
And I reclassify my wages as tips.

Speaker 3 (01:27:02):
Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:27:03):
I think there's gonna be a lot of interesting conversations
and navigating some of the nuances.

Speaker 4 (01:27:07):
I agree with you. Anything on your plate that's a
little unusual that people need to be looking out.

Speaker 7 (01:27:12):
For this year, I think, well, for this year in particular,
it's fairly business as usual. There's not a whole lot
of change that happened relative the twenty twenty four calendar
year and the tax filings that we need to make
by April fifteenth. It's going to be the upcoming years.
That's where the really interesting part's coming in to play.

Speaker 4 (01:27:29):
And a lot of that's still in motion, isn't it.

Speaker 7 (01:27:32):
I'd say it's basically all in motions.

Speaker 4 (01:27:33):
Yeah, it's all moving parts, right. Joel and his brother
our partners in the Johnson and Johnson CPA firm up
on Oracle. Use them for a lot of our clients.
If you're looking for somebody to do your accounting and
do your taxes whatever, Johnson and Johnson's CPA is where
you want.

Speaker 5 (01:27:48):
To go, that's for sure. I mean, I probably more
than twenty people we've referred to you over the last month.
I mean, many people have said that they like your
responsiveness and also how in depth you bring up a
lot of things that they don't think about, you know,
opportunities and strategies that they don't think of first. And
that's what people want. They don't want to just tell

(01:28:08):
you what they want to get done and then you.
I mean, they could do turbo tax that way right.
Turbo tax does it if you know how to do it.
But people want that little bit of extra sauce in
the gravy.

Speaker 4 (01:28:19):
You know. I have these clients that always file an extension.
They have extensive real estate holdings of fairly massive wealth,
and they always file in October, October fifteenth, right their deadline.
And so the first of October there eighty five year
old accountant who they've used for twenty years called and
said he couldn't do their taxes this year. He was
in the hospital with a broken hip. And Joel picked

(01:28:41):
up the ball and finished it, took it across the
goal line.

Speaker 1 (01:28:44):
As an honor.

Speaker 4 (01:28:45):
That's what you do.

Speaker 5 (01:28:46):
We also worked with Joel just recently on a rock
conversion strategy. We have obviously in the financial planning software,
a tax planning tool that gives us estimations on you know,
your interests and dividends that we can expect. And it's
really interesting, you know, most financial plans they don't realize
that you have to put in the tax deferred in
your taxable accounts because how much is actually coming out

(01:29:07):
it's around normally three percent. Most people have an average
of around the three percent tax track on their accounts,
so you have to account for that. Right if you
think all your income of the year is just Social
Security and what you take out your IRA, that's not true.
If you have other taxable accounts you're gonna make, you
have to account for those interests and dividends. So it's
all these little things that we're looking at from our
side of you. But then also when Joel comes in

(01:29:28):
the picture, he knows even more of the intricacies, like, yeah,
they did that, but here's the deduction that makes it lower,
So we actually have an extra ten thousand we can
move over things like that that that's where the tax
account really dials in the last figure. And we love
doing raw conversions around December, for example, because it's not
meaning that you're going to be too busy. It's not
April season, so we have the time to do it.

(01:29:50):
But also we have to do it within the calendar years.
So if you're thinking about raw conversions, it's not something
that you know, you can definitely start the conversation in
the earlier part of the year, but it's something that
maybe you want to wait till November, December to actually implement.

Speaker 4 (01:30:04):
Well, there's been somewhere between thirty and fifty thousand people
moved to Tucson since the pandemic, and a lot of
those people are still using sues E back in Des
Moines or Johnny back in Poughkeepsie to do their taxes.
It's a pain. You don't need to do that if
you want someone local to do your taxes. Johnson and
Johnson on Oracle'll give them a call, give us a call.

(01:30:24):
We'll put you in touch with them. They are CPA,
which is a big deal and so responsive.

Speaker 5 (01:30:32):
Is there any short term impacts that Trump did say
or do that is going to impact anyone for their
twenty four taxes.

Speaker 7 (01:30:39):
For twenty four I don't expect that. They Sometimes there
are a retro application of incentives and so forth, not
currently hearing a lot of chatter on what those might be.
The closest thing to that, I would say is the
rhetoric is unfavorable to continuing EV credits. So if someone
was inclined towards an EV purchase, there are still some
tax credits on the table for that. Those might be
on the short timeline.

Speaker 4 (01:31:01):
The little known thing about about the EV tax credits.
Being somewhat of an expert myself in evs, is that
most people that buy evs because they are expensive cars,
are people who are fairly well to do. And there
is an income cut off for the EV tax credit.
Oh there is many, if not most, of the people

(01:31:22):
who buy evs don't even qualify.

Speaker 7 (01:31:24):
That's where we're seeing the interesting wrinkle in the use market.
So as evs have been around longer, now we're starting
to see a US market emerge. Yes, they differentiated a
tax credit for the used What is the tax credit
for UDV? So it depends on the EV. Everything tax
depends on a million factors, right, But the flavor is
thirty seven to.

Speaker 4 (01:31:41):
Fifty okay, and that is income adjusted.

Speaker 7 (01:31:44):
Everything is subject to income threshold phase outs and things
like that. Other important note two pieces. One, it's not
a carry forward credit, it's a user or lose it credit.
So if you don't have the tax obligation, then you're
not going to get advantage of it. However, or they
added that you can take it straight off of the
purchase price if the dealer works that way, So that

(01:32:05):
way you get the credit at the time of purchase.
You don't even have to file and get it that.

Speaker 4 (01:32:08):
Way, right. I think January first of twenty twenty four
that changed where it was no longer a tax credit,
but they handed to you at the point of purchase,
right if you qualify right. Right. So you guys probably
don't deal with that a bunch, right or do you?

Speaker 3 (01:32:22):
We don't know.

Speaker 7 (01:32:23):
That's the dealer side of it.

Speaker 4 (01:32:24):
Yeah, and that's changed since January first is twenty four.

Speaker 7 (01:32:27):
Right, and I think that believe it was January first
some of these dates. There are so many movies.

Speaker 4 (01:32:32):
I know, there's so many moving parts, especially now, but
that's that's I was told that in the spring of
twenty twenty six there'll be more EV leases, more EV's
come off of lease than any other time. And coincidentally,
mine comes off of lease in June of twenty sixth,
so there'd be going to be an awfully lot of

(01:32:54):
used evs available. I've talked to a bunch of people,
most recently the guy at the tire store the other
day about he's dying to have an EV but he
can't afford it, and we talked about that and he'sa,
oh man, I can't thanks for the information. I can't wait,
you know, Yeah, just another year I'm going to have.
So that's something if you if you do have an
interest in evs and and don't want to pay the

(01:33:16):
price of a new ev used ones look like they're
going to be readily available in about a year, and
they'll be more and more affordable. Yeah, and I think
they have gotten more affordable. When I least my Tesla
in June of last year, I want to say, the
retail price within the low sixties. Now it's in the
mid forties. That's just just competition.

Speaker 3 (01:33:35):
Yeah, they're going down, I mean they have to Tesla's.
The market's getting saturated. Yes, yeah, we are talking about
having the model Y.

Speaker 4 (01:33:42):
What model the brand new model Y just introduced to you.

Speaker 3 (01:33:46):
Yeah, they were talking about like sixty thousand dollars again,
trying to.

Speaker 4 (01:33:49):
You think they're going to bring the price back up.

Speaker 3 (01:33:51):
I saw it and like it's going to be an upgrade.
So you don't know.

Speaker 5 (01:33:54):
Of course, we had another client that you took on
that it's going to be an increasingly part of your business,
I assume is the electronic sales space, so online sales
specifically like Shopify, Amazon, drop shipping. You know a lot
of people's you know, kids or grand kids getting into
that and they make a lot of money, and so

(01:34:15):
there's obviously certain tax implications that are different than other
things how that gets paid or where it goes. And
so I don't know if you want to speak a
little bit about the differences on that domain, but even
just business owners as a whole.

Speaker 7 (01:34:27):
You bet, so the core of that domain is still
fundamentally similar. You still have a business activity, the income
and the expenses and so forth. A lot of the
dynamic on the CPA and tax side of things has
to do with geography. Now you have a border agnostic
sequence of events, right, Arizona can order something from New
York and have it shipped there, and that's how these

(01:34:49):
things are executed. And suddenly who gets the sales tax?
Right does Arizona where the transaction where I'm buying from?
Is it New York where the transaction is sold from?
And so we're seeing a lot of dynamics and things
being sorted out in that regard. So there tend to
be a lot of nuances in dealing with that with
e businesses. Right aside from that, where it'll be interesting

(01:35:09):
to see what some of the incentives coming down the
pipe are right. The encouragement of manufacturing activity return stateside,
and what how do they encourage that activity. It's through incentives,
typically through a tax structure, and so I anticipate while
that's not e business related, the transaction of what you're
selling on over any business activity, I think the innerlinking

(01:35:31):
of that will be quite notable as far as opportunity
for savings and so forth.

Speaker 5 (01:35:36):
And from a business understandpoint, if you get to the end
of the year and you're you're tired of paying too
much taxes and you don't have a formal care or
any retirement plan set up, it's your own fault. I mean,
you have an opportunity to hide money from the government
and put it to towards your retirement.

Speaker 7 (01:35:50):
We defer, defer, and well, you still can do like
seven thousand dollars IRA stuff like that.

Speaker 4 (01:35:54):
Yeah, that's true.

Speaker 5 (01:35:56):
A business owners, it's going to do it for something
a little. But seriously, with the Secure Act two point out,
you get so many credits, you get so much tax
deductibility opportunities. You should be taking advantage of the retirement.

Speaker 4 (01:36:09):
Plan exactly exactly. I told you you need somebody to
do your taxes. Johnson and Johnson. You need someone to
do your accounting. Johnson and Johnson's CPA is North Oracle.
Give us a call. We can put you in touch
with them. We appreciate your joining us for the Money
Matters Show. It's been our pleasure to bring you the show.
We all want to be happy, and of course we
all want to be healthy, because if we're not healthy,
we're probably not happy and a Greenberg financial what we're

(01:36:31):
trying to be is probitable. See you next week.

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