Money Matters: Market Rebound, Trump’s Inauguration & Smart Retirement Planning

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Good morning. It's that time again. It's Sunday morning, a
cold Sunday morning in the desert. I've got Todd, I've
got Dylan, I've got Sebastian, I'm Dave Sherwood and Dean
is taking advantage of the three day weekend? What three
day weekend you talk about? Because nobody knows that Monday
is a holiday? Right Martin Luther King Junior Day?

Speaker 2 (00:23):
I think that's gone and passed.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
I think no. I talked to you over the last week.
It's what do you mean Monday?

Speaker 2 (00:29):
What?

Speaker 1 (00:29):
What holidays? Monday?

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Okay? I feel like Juneteenth is that that's taking its place.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
I think probably that would be a bigie two for sure.
But yeah, Monday's a holiday. And my friends I grew
in South Dakota and my friends back there would get
a chuckle out of me talking about cold mornings. But
you know, I'm not a big fan of the cold weather,
or I wouldn't live in Tucson, Arizona, right I did.
I always tell people I did not move here for
the cold.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
Well, you got to deal with it for about two
months out of the year.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
And I complained the whole time. Yea, I complained the
whole time, and we got what the last week, I
think the early last week and the weekend, it was
four days in a row below freezing or below and
then this coming week we got another three or four days.
And I'm like, okay, I'm I'm really over this.

Speaker 3 (01:10):
See some rain.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
You and I are outside a lotdown. I saw you
were outside last weekend, like thirty five degrees with no
shirt or something. What's wrong with you?

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Ran ten miles? You stay more?

Speaker 1 (01:22):
But he's wrong with you?

Speaker 2 (01:22):
I stay outside?

Speaker 1 (01:24):
Yeah, I'm I'm all walking. It was Tuesday. I think Wednesday.
Thursday was beautiful, right, so I think it was Monday
or Tuesday was still a little chilly. And I'm out
walking on the river and I've got my long pants
on and I've got two shirts on and my hoodie.
And I come up on this gal walking dogs in
a T shirt and shorts, and I'm thinking, hmm.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
It's good running. Whether that's for sure?

Speaker 3 (01:45):
Oh? Going back to the markets, yep, we uh wow. Today, Well,
today's Sunday. So tomorrow you got Trump getting inaugurated. That's
gonna put a lot of emphasis. Almost gonna probably happen
the next twelve month. We're gonna look into it. We're
gonna know a lot more coming into the next few
weeks after he gets inaugurated.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Yeah, big big day, Big day tomorrow with the inauguration,
MLK Day, the National Championship Football Game, a lot going on,
a lot to track from Martin Luther King Union Day tomorrow.
So I'm not sure how that's gonna work out, but
it is what it is. I was a you know
that we we aren't talking so much about LA because

(02:27):
things are starting to quiet down, although there are still
fires burning there that they haven't gotten out yet. I
saw an article that only seven states have as many
people as it's a Los Angeles County. Only seven states. Amazing.
And here's here's a question I asked before on the show,
and so a listener might get it. But how many

(02:47):
cities now, cities being incorporated, cities with the mayor and
a city council. How many cities are in Los Angeles County?
Forty you say six, Dylan, you say forty seven. What
do you how about specially thirty eighty eight?

Speaker 2 (03:01):
Wow, eighty eight.

Speaker 1 (03:02):
Cities in Los Angeles County. So when when fire starts
to hit there, it can be a real problem. And
we saw that. But it's amazing what has happened there,
and we're very sympathetic. We're gonna talk a little bit
more about that because one of the questions I had
this week was what kind of opportunities even though everyone

(03:23):
that asked about that expressed to their guilt asking about that,
but are there opportunities that were created? And I like
to talk a little bit about that when we get
into it. Dylan mentioned the market was just exploded higher,
best week since the election. Why, I think, probably God,
you want to talk about why.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
Well, I think the biggest reason is the tenure interest
rate plunged big this week compared to last week, hitting
the four point seventy five level. Now it's a really
bad level for equities to be above, and had really
good growth numbers and continuing to justify their current valuations.
We saw the ten year off big time this week,
and I think that helped a lot of risk assets.

(04:04):
But also we saw the equated S and P up
three point nine versus the S and P five hundred
up two point nine. So just the broad market did
really well this week, and I think that's because of
the interest rates.

Speaker 4 (04:16):
That's the top performer of the year of the RSP
two point seven percent.

Speaker 1 (04:19):
For this year. Right, quick, take picture, quick quick, yeah,
quick taking picture. It was interesting because we knew coming
into this past week that there were going to be
a couple of very critical numbers, the producer price Index
and the consumer price Index. And interestingly, the consumer price
Index came in a two point nine percent year over year,
which is the highest in six months, but it was

(04:40):
number one in line. What ignited the rally was something
that was behind the scenes that we talked about, we
all talked about here in the office, and is probably
something that bodes well for the future. The markets held
in pretty well considering what's happened with interest rates. Interest
rates have just been soaring, and the market's held in

(05:01):
there pretty well.

Speaker 2 (05:02):
Until last week. Really yeah, it was the first week
he saw pain right.

Speaker 1 (05:05):
The week before last right, right, Yeah, you're absolutely right,
And so you look at the number to say, well,
that's not really good news. The highest consumer price index
in six months. However, shelter shelter was the I think
shelter ignited the rally. Shelter being rent and house prices.
We saw the slowest increase year over year in shelter

(05:28):
in three years now. We've been talking on the show
about how real estate prices locally have come down probably
ten percent or more. The market has gotten very quiet
out there. I was talking to a home flipper on
Thursday and he says, definitely quiet out there. Really, the
market has gotten very soft. I think we're probably seeing

(05:51):
that in other parts of the country. We were wondering
when that would start to reflect in CPI. Todd, you
said it's a lagging indicator, could be four five months,
and that's exactly what's happened, is four or five months
since we started to see these prices often. But imagine this.
If the market has performed well with interest rates steadily rising,

(06:12):
what's going to happen if they start to steadily decline.
I think I think that's what set it off. And
you're right, Todd, it was risk on risk assets just
became very very Bitcoin is a good example. You talked
about the ninety two thousand level on bitcoin. It traded
below ninety thousand.

Speaker 2 (06:32):
Yeah, well it briefly went to eighty eight. Yeah, you know,
but it didn't closed below that ninety two. That's the key, right,
and so.

Speaker 1 (06:39):
I'll never closed this. So I don't know how you'd closed, Well.

Speaker 5 (06:42):
It does.

Speaker 2 (06:42):
Every twenty four hours, it replaces its new candle.

Speaker 1 (06:45):
Okay, right, so technically it does close.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Yeah, well the candle closes.

Speaker 4 (06:50):
It's twenty four hour candles.

Speaker 2 (06:52):
So from a technical view, it could not get it
could not close. It's twenty four hour cycle below ninety two.
It found a way not to, and then it just prepared.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
I think it finished on Friday, it was one o five.

Speaker 2 (07:03):
Yeah. But even though if you talked to him, if
remember last week, I was talking about the S and
P and saying if if if it was going down,
it was gonna go down big. It had to have
an increase this week because of the technical levels, and
we saw the S and P bounce really nicely as well.
But again, the equal weighted being up four percent, I
think that's a really strong sign of a healthy rally.

(07:23):
You're not seeing it all go into meta. I mean
even Apple was down on the week.

Speaker 1 (07:27):
Yeah, broad based rally. Yeah, broad based rally, which is good.
You want you want to see it spread out because
so often it's just the tech stocks.

Speaker 2 (07:35):
I think we should talk a little bit about Apple
because it was down on the week, where if some
people might have not noted. Zuckerberg was talking some smack
about Apple on the Rogan podcast. He was Zuckerberg does
these Rogan podcasts, seems maybe every four months, and it
seems like now. But he was saying that Apple hasn't
really produced a new product in years, and then they
just kind of cornered their markets where they are now

(07:56):
and that's how they make their money. And it was
an interesting take from one of the most successful innovators
in the world right now, obviously, and his take on
that which led to maybe Apple leading down. We also
saw the sales in China have continued to not be
as good since they put that ban on Apple phones
for the government employees over there, So it might be

(08:16):
interesting they are coming out with that new flip phone
thing that's kind of their new product. It doesn't seem
like the Apple Vision Pro are getting the same steam
that people thought it might would. But what's the table
stots on Apple?

Speaker 1 (08:28):
I think the sixteen, the iPhone sixteen thus far has
been just kind of a kind of a non event
because the Apple intelligence really isn't fully turned on yet.

Speaker 3 (08:36):
Well, Apple's two newest ideas were the Apple Car and
Vision Pro. They scrapped the Apple Car after ten years,
they spent ten billion dollars on it on the project,
just to scrap it. And then the Vision Pro. They're
slowly quietly producing less because the demand is not there
for the Apple Vision Pro. And that's kind of what
Zuckerberg was saying too, is the Meta Quest Dallas doing better?

(08:59):
The Apple Vision pros thirty five hundred dollars. People don't
want it. It's a luxury that didn't take off like
Apple thought it would. So their two new products are struggling.

Speaker 1 (09:08):
You're not hearing a lot about these goggles that you
put on and I don't know it said around and.

Speaker 3 (09:14):
Apple made that did that on purpose. They stopped because
they're realizing that it wasn't doing it well, so they
stopped putting so much money towards the advertising and pushing it,
and they're kind of slowly, quietly trying to just dissolve it.

Speaker 4 (09:25):
Kind of like the Apple Car. But I mean, the
Apple Car didn't even hit the market, right.

Speaker 3 (09:29):
Apple Car never hit the market. They're just trying to
kind of just put this in the wayside and just
leave it.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
But I think it was the only Magnificent seven stock
that was actually down on the week.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
This week, analysts also lowered the projections, so that never
that never helps when stocks already been doing what.

Speaker 2 (09:43):
But even you thought Meta would have a really gonga
of a week because of the news that the Supreme
Court did uphold the band that TikTok will no longer
be able to be able to be accessed in the
United States.

Speaker 3 (09:55):
I think the reason it didn't is because Trump is
saying he's kind of flipped this whole two on banning TikTok.
He'd rather work with China to keep it going. So
that might be why Meta didn't blow up. And it's
not necessarily even though technically, come today should be banned.
Trump has the final say, I guess, and he might

(10:15):
not ban it.

Speaker 1 (10:16):
Well, Biden already said he's not going to ban it.

Speaker 3 (10:18):
And it's up to Trump. But the gord up held
it and it's like the January nineteenth is the day,
which is today, right, So but Trump gets the final
say and he's like, they just he did a one
eighty on it, all right.

Speaker 1 (10:29):
Well, Biden said he would not ban it, So they
get you through Sunday, right, and then now Monday Trump
takes office. I don't know who's in charge of Monday. Nobody.
I guess whatever.

Speaker 2 (10:38):
Well, remember they shake hands, they like yeh yeah, yeah
at nine am or whatever.

Speaker 3 (10:41):
And turn into the mic and say TikTok is banned.

Speaker 1 (10:45):
Yeah. And Trump, of course has been supportive of TikTok.
He's been against the ban. Well, he was not initially.

Speaker 3 (10:52):
He was the first one to say I want to
ban it.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
Well, he caught bitkind of scam too. I mean, okay,
so you know it is what it is. So things
are bolved. We all.

Speaker 3 (11:00):
As of today, he does not want to ban it.
He wants to work in China, and he's already talking
to Chi where we talked to you on Friday about
TikTok about banning, among other things.

Speaker 2 (11:09):
Apparently a lot of politicians have made a lot of
bids into Meta over the course of the last few
months as this ruling has come to a light, which
obviously is something that needs to be looked into. Hopefully
Trump can look into that and not letting our public
officials who make laws that can impact public companies and yeah,
I mean to also invest in those same public companies

(11:31):
that they can influence. Seems pretty wrong.

Speaker 4 (11:34):
If they shut down TikTok on Sunday or today. I mean,
that's gonna be that is going to be a huge
beneficiary of that.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
And why is that?

Speaker 4 (11:41):
Because of the reels, the real the short little videos,
and everybody will go to the Facebook reels in.

Speaker 1 (11:49):
A lot of listeners probably aren't on Facebook show.

Speaker 3 (11:51):
Yeah. No, Meta is Instagram and that's his biggest competitors, TikTok.

Speaker 4 (11:55):
And if you don't know what a reel is, it's
just a short little video that you could you know,
you could spam hundred videos in the course of maybe
twenty minutes.

Speaker 1 (12:03):
So so Zuckerberg years ago, several years ago, decided to
try to compete with TikTok and came up with reels yep,
which is which then would become kind of your only
source if TikTok is banned well.

Speaker 3 (12:17):
For that type. Yeah, and then I mean YouTube always
has short videos and stuff, but it's not the same.
It's like scrolling through sure, yeah yeah, Meta does that.
I mean Instagram also now Meta has threads, which is
X's competitor. I don't I don't have it, I don't
download it, so I don't know what it is exactly,
but I know it's a competitor.

Speaker 2 (12:35):
So meta.

Speaker 3 (12:35):
Yeah, it stands to benefit from a band.

Speaker 4 (12:37):
What if Elon bought TikTok, it'd be crazy.

Speaker 3 (12:40):
Yep, there's a bunch of not a bunch, but there's
a handful of billionaires that are looking to buy it.
I think it's said last time I saw it was
going for twenty billion to buy it. So there's plenty
out there, plenty of people out there that can buy it.

Speaker 1 (12:53):
The next to this, though, is if TikTok is banned,
that's really good for meta, correct, right, And if it's
not banned, it's probably not good for meta.

Speaker 3 (13:01):
And it's gonna be the same. It's not really going
to do any different.

Speaker 1 (13:04):
Yeah, it's not gonna hurt the same.

Speaker 3 (13:05):
Yeah, it shouldn't hurt meta, it should just help it
if it's banned.

Speaker 4 (13:09):
The sole reason they want to ban TikTok as well
because the privacy concern China data.

Speaker 3 (13:13):
Or data gathering, which is a common tool that these
data companies use, these social media companies use, but it's
based in China.

Speaker 1 (13:22):
Hundred million Americans on TikTok.

Speaker 2 (13:25):
And if you haven't seen anything from the twenty sixteen
and twenty twenty election, you could definitely influence a political
base just by feeding certain videos. And so if China
has that ability to feed certain videos, that's obviously.

Speaker 3 (13:35):
Yeah, I heard like the whole it's the whole algorithm
and all that, and like in China, I guess they
can't have TikTok doesn't have videos of just like non
nonsense on their TikTok. It's all educational. And then you
look at the US as in an algorithm is just
nonsense dancing and stuff like that. So it can definitely
be manipulated and changed.

Speaker 1 (13:54):
Good chunk of people that make their living on TikTok, right, Yeah,
from what I understand.

Speaker 3 (13:59):
For the long I don't know if it still is,
but for the longest time, if you're making money, like
your company was technically on a Stagram or TikTok, you
weren't considered part of the workforce. I don't know if
that's changed in the last couple of years, but a
few years ago it was that way.

Speaker 1 (14:12):
Let's put before we put move on from Apple. Of course,
it could have such a widely owned stock down twelve
percent from the all time high, which was frankly just
hit two weeks ago, and it's a number of things
that Zuckerberg comments on rogan where certainly didn't help. He
said he could be bigger than Apple if Apple would
just played by the rules, you know, and that's you know,
sounds like a whiny cat to me, but whatever. Then

(14:35):
the a couple of animalst downgrades that we found out
that it moved from number one to number three in China,
behind two of the local Huawei and VIVL was it
of Vivl and Whawai. Huawei had overtaken iPhone and the
iPhone shipments to China were down seventeen percent over the
last twelve months. So you said, well, okay, now Apples

(14:57):
come down pretty good, down about fifteen percent from the high.
Is at an opportunity to buy and I would think
you'd want to see what this quarterly report looks like.

Speaker 3 (15:05):
What if that's the deal that Trump makes with Chi,
is that Apple phones can be used by Chinese government?
If TikTok and stay.

Speaker 1 (15:10):
Over here, that would that would there? You go? There,
you go, there's a trade off for you, and who knows,
he's a deal maker for sure, and anything can happen,
but you got to we're.

Speaker 4 (15:19):
Go any further.

Speaker 1 (15:20):
Uh.

Speaker 4 (15:21):
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(15:42):
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Speaker 1 (15:47):
Thank you, good job, good job. You know I've heard
Todd Well.

Speaker 2 (15:52):
I was just going to say the big inauguration speech
that we have on Monday, there's a couple of key
things that we have to look out for. Investors aren't
going to be able to react to the speech real
time because of the federal holiday on Monday, so most
of them placed their bets probably on Friday, hoping for
some deregulations speak. And I think that's why we saw
some of the small caps really get a bid this week.
A small cap was up three point nine, I mean

(16:13):
actually at four percent led the way higher this week.
So if you saw on election night what led the
way higher, it was small caps. So I think that's
just a continuation of that Trump trade looking back to
what went well in twenty sixteen. If you're looking at
what he's going to say, there's a couple things that
could hurt markets. If he says anything too drastically about immigration,
that will be seen as inflationary, which will cause rates

(16:33):
to spike, which will weigh on markets. Another thing that
he could say is tariffs. If he does anything big
announcing in there, investors are going to try to figure
out what's going to be the retaliation and likely lead
to rates going higher, which would weigh on markets. However,
on the flip coin, what he says that might boost
certain sectors. If he says anything about we need to

(16:54):
upgrade our energy infrastructure, obviously energy stocks are going to
get a big bid. I think potentially new Keler space,
could you get a big bid if he talks anything
about the red tape being too much in that space
and how we have to go big into that if
we want to go into the next level of data
centers and things like that. He's a businessman, he understands
what needs to be done, so I think he potentially
could say that, especially with the Energy secretary pick that

(17:15):
he already has. Also, if he says anything with crypto right, obviously,
that space will love it. I don't anticipate it. I
feel like it's probably a five percent chance he talks
anything about it in this inauguration speech, But over the
course of his first one hundred days what he does
for that space will obviously be key.

Speaker 4 (17:31):
As Trump said anything about uranium or nuclear not that
I know of.

Speaker 1 (17:36):
Crypto on Friday was trading near the all time high,
wasn't it.

Speaker 2 (17:41):
Yeah, I mean bitcoins at one hundred and eight right
now for the all time high, and so right now
it's trades at one oh five.

Speaker 1 (17:46):
It didn't it run up from the high nineties to
one oh five in the last twenty four hours, say,
before the market closed on Friday.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
It was at one oh one. In the beginning of
Friday morning, Yeah, okay, it was about five thousand dollars increase.

Speaker 1 (17:57):
Only I it was Tuesday. It was eighty eight.

Speaker 2 (18:00):
Yeah, somewhere around there.

Speaker 1 (18:01):
Happened on Boy you want a little volatility, but it
really was, it really was a risk on after we
got that number on shelter. Again, hiding behind the scenes
of that CPI report was that shelter number, which we've
all been waiting for, and it could be the beginning
of CPI ratcheting pretty steadily lower if that were to continue.

(18:22):
And I think that was what ignited that rally on.

Speaker 2 (18:26):
Yeah, we saw a graph that if you take the
real time indicators of the current home pricing and you
don't use the BLS lagging indicator, this current CPI would
be somewhere around one point seven instead of two point seven.

Speaker 1 (18:37):
Imagine that.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
So, I mean, you're you're talking that's probably going to
take six months to actually come to fruition. But yeah,
what does the market look like with CPI at one
point seven could be a lot higher?

Speaker 1 (18:47):
Yeah, Yeah, that's and I think that's exactly why I
got to bid. You know, I've had people say, well, geez,
we've had back to back years of twenty percent plus
gain in the market. Isn't the time for a pullback?
How far can it go? Oh? And so I was
looking back historically, the last time we saw that was
in nineteen ninety five to nineteen ninety nine. We had

(19:07):
five years, five consecutive years with gains of more than
twenty percent. Why the Internet, right, the Internet, the advent
of the Internet, and.

Speaker 2 (19:17):
The industrial revolution, right, right, we have AI.

Speaker 1 (19:19):
We have a revolution, a technological revolution that well put
Todd the Internet, and now what we have now.

Speaker 3 (19:28):
If history piece itself, you got to keep being cautious
because you don't want another dot com bubble if it's
going to repeat itself.

Speaker 2 (19:33):
I also thought this was interesting as well. I looked
at the history of the last forty years of returns
versus the previous forty years of returns, because if you
are getting these technological advancements, you should continue to see
higher and higher growth figures. Okay, right, I mean it
makes sense if technology is increasing the productivity, that productivity
should lead to higher and higher growth for the companies
that use it. And you actually do see that the

(19:56):
average re turn annually of NSTEK or the S and
P over the last forty years compared to the forty
years before is higher.

Speaker 1 (20:02):
Yeah. I think historically for the last one hundred years
it's averaged ten percent. For the last forty years it
has been twelve percent. Right, So you're absolutely right.

Speaker 2 (20:10):
And I think also some of that is based on
that we're now on a debt based system since the
nineteen seventies, and that means that no currency is based
on a actual physical, current, physical asset, which means that
you can then loan against the value of your asset
to buy more of the assets. So it kind of
self reinforces the asset price growth, which helps increase these

(20:30):
growth rates that we've seen over the last forty years.
But overall, if you continue to have technological advancements, you
should see higher and higher growth figures. The volatility should increase. Two.

Speaker 1 (20:40):
I think in theory, if you're going to see slowly
but steadily declining consumer price index over the next six
to nine months, the market should react quite favorably to that.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
I think it's really key because of the back half
of twenty twenty five, you're going to have that debt
starting to get refinanced from the twenty twenty to twenty
twenty one era of the zero percent interest rates, and
so they're not going to be able to take out
as much debt as they did in that time because
they won't be able to service the debt.

Speaker 1 (21:08):
Ten year tragedy from four and three quarters down to
three and three quarters or three would be huge, right,
in terms of defense.

Speaker 2 (21:16):
I mean even right now, the five year I think
is is like four to three.

Speaker 1 (21:19):
They're all about it's pretty flashy. So it's like you said,
slightly upward, Jilteinge. I think we saw the ten years
four point six on Friday at the close, and the
two year was four point three. Yeah, so a more normal,
you'll curve.

Speaker 2 (21:33):
Not a bad time to start looking at a TLT
position eDV is. Another vanguard offers for twenty to thirty
plus year bonds because the twenty to thirty year bonds
have higher convexity, which means that they will move more
in relation to interest rates. So if interest rates do
continue to decline, those assets well, bonds will increase more
than shorter term duration bonds.

Speaker 1 (21:53):
So coming into a period of steadily declining interest rates,
we'll put that if coming into a period of steadily
declined the interurstry, the longer maturities will perform better than
the shorter maturities. We saw what happened when interest rates
went from zero to five percent. The thirty year treasury
lost forty percent value liquidation value. Right, the hold of

(22:13):
tail maturity, you get it back, but who's gonna hold it?
Teil maturity forty years out or thirty years out. I'm sorry,
so it might be a good time to extend maturity.
Someone asked me today why we did a five year ladder, one, two, three, four,
and five year maturities. He said, why would we go
out that far? Well, because then we win if phrase
go up or race go down. You know, phrase go up.

(22:34):
We've got some short term paper, race come down. We've
got long term paper. And it's a nice thing about
a ladder. You don't have to you don't have to
figure it out if you will, you don't have to
roll the dice on one thing. Yes, what do you think
about retail sales being up four tenths versus six tenths
disappointing retail sales report which which really was the only

(22:55):
negative economic report.

Speaker 2 (22:57):
Yeah, I mean coming off a December normally that's your
highest spending month. I don't think it's something of concern
until you see what comes up with January's numbers.

Speaker 1 (23:06):
No, it's one of those things. I would have expected
it to pick up a little more than that. I
think that's of course the analyst did as well.

Speaker 4 (23:12):
You're saying it's not of concern, just because usually December
numbers are inflated.

Speaker 2 (23:17):
Well, people will always spend more in December, and they're
month over month numbers, so they expected it to increase
on the December numbers. They still increased, it just didn't
increase as much.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
So it's going to be interesting to see because you
remember Walmart and Target a couple of months ago said
that they had cut back on purchases for Christmas. They
expected Christmas to be a little soft, and maybe that
four tenths of a percent versus six tenths of a
percent expectations is telling you that that the Christmas sales
were a little soft. Although friends of mine who work

(23:48):
in different retail areas, was going to say, well, I
didn't feel like that just been slammed.

Speaker 2 (23:52):
I didn't feel like anyone cut back on gift purchases
this year.

Speaker 1 (23:55):
No, no, And I've got I've got friends in the
furniture business and it's busier than it's ever been record numbers.
Friendship is pretty big purchase. The economy all in all,
the economy is still goldilocks. Their rates are not The
rates are seen to be easing a little bit, and
growth is there and we will be back with the

(24:16):
next taking to the Money Matter Show. We thank you
for joining us on this Sunday morning.

Speaker 5 (24:22):
You're like the child with the smile on a marry good.

Speaker 2 (24:31):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, so Fashion Board, SINI,
and Surewood. This week we had the Doubt lead the
way of the top three indexes, up three point seven percent,
where the S and P was only up two point nine,
the Nasdaq was only up two point four, the Rust
of two thousand was up four, and the equal Weight
was up three point nine. The Rust of two thousand
definitely led the way with the idea that Trump is

(24:53):
going to have help with the deregulation. Plus, we had
interest rates back off their highs that we haven't seen
since October of twenty twenty three, which helped give that bid.
But the Nasdaq only being up two point four and
is actually the lowest performing index you're to date.

Speaker 1 (25:07):
So far, that is interesting. I think it got off
to a rough start during the week. Early in the
week it was a little rough for the Nazaka rallied
strong on Friday kind of brought it back into the
where the other end of you talk about the risk
on trade, Bitcoin being one of the obvious ones, gold
being another one. China. China got a bid this week.
It was up seven percent. A lot of talk from

(25:30):
analysts about seeing green shoots in China. Green shoots being
the thing you see in the spring, you know, when
the crops start to come up, when you're going to
have corn, you know, knee high by the fourth of July,
you're going to start with a green shoot. And so
that's what that's that's all about. Oil was up a
buck and a half to seventy seven and a quarter

(25:50):
and gold up thirty two bucks to twenty seven forty
getting back to the all time high. Think at all
time high was twenty eight hundred and jam And.

Speaker 2 (25:57):
I think what we have to remember about oil is
that even though Trump might say we need to drill more,
the likelihood that oil companies which just turn around and
start making more projects, that's not how it works. They
think ten years in advance, and since this presidency for
Trump is only going to be about four years, they
know in five years there could be a completely different
administration that doesn't allow them to finish whatever project they

(26:17):
get started.

Speaker 1 (26:18):
Now.

Speaker 2 (26:19):
So I heard that The big opportunity for oil drilling
is going to be these offshore mines because they're able
to have a lower break even cost for actually getting
profitability on the mind.

Speaker 1 (26:32):
You brought up an interesting point last week, and that
was as regards to oil production and the countries who
use the most oil. I was kind of curious about that.
Started to look into that during the week. The number
one consumer of oil in the world is the United
States obviously nineteen million barrels per day, nineteen million barrels

(26:56):
per day, even more than China. Huh, China's fourteen million
barrels per day.

Speaker 2 (27:00):
They're getting to us.

Speaker 1 (27:01):
Now, that's China's got four times as many people as
we right, and they're using about two thirds as much oil.
That's kind of but get this, here's the mind blower India,
who has more people than China. Most people don't know
that India is the most populous country on the planet
and talk about packing them in. Right, The geographic size

(27:22):
of India's fraction of what China is, and it has
more people. India five point two million barrels per day,
which is slightly more than China, which one third of
what China uses in oil with more people.

Speaker 4 (27:39):
Well, like you said, the geography of it, right, you're
slamming them all into one place. Maybe you don't need
to drive as much. They're just not as many think.

Speaker 2 (27:45):
It's also it's the quality of life.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
It's the quality of life. Absolutely, God that you're spot
on with that. It's the quality of life. India with
five million barrels of oil consumption per day US nineteen,
so US four times as much oil.

Speaker 2 (28:00):
And we take it for granted all the time. And
we talk about the fact that half the world doesn't
have refrigerators yet they don't have microwaves, and all of
that is on an energy grid which runs on fossil fuels. Yeah,
it's made two thirds of it. So all the things
that we use in our house, it's not just driving, right,
there's a lot of things that require oil in our
inputs that we use on a daily basis.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
And when you see pictures of India, you see a
lot of oxen and things, you know, and it is
a third world country. And but I didn't realize how
third world it is. With a quarter of the excuse me,
with four times as many people as the US, it's
using a quarter as much oil.

Speaker 2 (28:38):
But then you start to imagine, Okay, well, if India
gets to a status of quality of life where we're
at all of a sudden, they're going to need ten
x the amount of oil. If each Indian is living
the way American is and they have that many people,
how much more oil do we need as a world question?

Speaker 1 (28:54):
Right?

Speaker 2 (28:55):
And if we're not using oil, where's that energy going
to come from?

Speaker 5 (28:57):
Then?

Speaker 2 (28:59):
Right? So there's a huge need for the energy. And
I don't think a lot of people realize how far
behind most of the world is on just simple products
that use a lot of oil. Yeah, some of the
world still just cooks their meals by making a fire.

Speaker 1 (29:12):
Yeah, it's phenomenal. Do you mention Saudi Arabia four million
barrels a day of consumption there? Saudi Arabia was so
you said, we're the largest oil producer in the world,
which we are. Saudi Arabia is number two, but they
don't consume right anywhere near as much as we do.
So it makes some net exporter. Russia's number five on
the list. To complete the list, I just thowt it

(29:33):
was kind of interesting, particularly the difference between.

Speaker 4 (29:36):
How much does the Russia use how many girls a day.

Speaker 1 (29:39):
Three point six three point six million barrels per day, right,
so about twenty percent of what the US uses, about
twenty percent. Amazing, It's crazy.

Speaker 2 (29:48):
I was reading a book about oil that was very
interesting and talking about how for a very long time
there wasn't a free market on oil, Like there wasn't futures,
there wasn't a spot price. It was set by the
oil sit or whatever they call it, the standard oil.
You know, then they controlled sixty percent of the world's
entire oil price. I mean, there's a free aut monopoly.
There's a free market for oil. Sure there you could

(30:08):
trade futures and stuff, but you still have OPEC that
controls it. That's today, and I'm talking about back back
in the nineteen hundred, only one.

Speaker 1 (30:15):
Control it oil open price to control it. The open
market controls it, but open price too by limiting.

Speaker 4 (30:22):
Production, limited production and production.

Speaker 2 (30:24):
You know, they they try to, but they're an oligopoly,
that's how you.

Speaker 1 (30:28):
Yeah, and they got a bunch of cats that are standard.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
Oil is a monopoly, so they could literally just do
whatever they wanted and really actually kind almost control political nations.
If you're able to control the oil price.

Speaker 1 (30:39):
The pretty much. They pretty much had it. Yeah, hey,
in video we talked about Apple, So in video that's
probably the second most widely owned stock, right behind Apple.
They hit a new all time high on January seventh.
It's down thirteen percent on general weakness and tech and
a new Commerce department proposed restrictions. Get this on chip
ex sports that the Commerce Department are necessary for a

(31:01):
national security because we'll make it harder for China and
other US adversaries to gain access to the most advanced
AI computing technology. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (31:10):
NA Video ceo made waves last week about his comments
a quantum computing, and Zuckerberg kind of added fuel on
that far on the Rogan pockets where he also said
it's about ten to fifteen years away from true application.
And so we saw the quantum kind of have an
interesting week because obviously risk Asti's had a good week,
but they've had some bad days mixed in there. So

(31:31):
they kind of ended pretty much a little down on
the week, but not much.

Speaker 3 (31:34):
Bottom Quantum was pretty flat after what the n Video
ceo said this last week. I mean it dropped when
Zuckerberg was talking, and then it came back a bit,
and then it dropped a little on Friday. It was
mostly flat though, But yeah, it's becoming more out there
that it's ten fifteen years among these tech CEOs. I
think you got to hit them hard.

Speaker 1 (31:54):
Yeah. He gets pointed out last week that the companies
will say, oh no, no, we're selling this stuff right now.
You don't have total sales of nine million. You know
there's restaurants in town, do that? Are you kidding me?
The interesting thing one of the things I've been thinking
about in Vidia is you you are selling as many
chips as you can produce, So what difference does it

(32:16):
make about whatever new markets you find? And something I
missed completely is Nvidia doesn't build anything. They don't manufacture
a thing. They have no manufacturing facility at all. There
is no Nvidia plant anywhere. Taiwan Semi manufacturers almost all
most of their chips. But here's my thinking, So you

(32:38):
really could have way more chips than you have now
if you simply got more manufacturing facility, people involved, people
that are in the chip manufacturing business like Taiwan Semi.
In theory, am I right?

Speaker 2 (32:52):
Yeah? Maybe if Intel could do it with their foundry or.

Speaker 1 (32:55):
Something Intel, Intel could do anything, right, Yeah, you know
that would be wonderful. Uh as a US company, right,
I mean, I'm surprised to see you couldn't find his
way to the office. Uh, it's so disappointing. I mean,
you've got one of the major chip companies in the
world here, are just stinking it up. I don't I
don't get it. It's too do I sound angry.

Speaker 2 (33:16):
About it a little bit?

Speaker 1 (33:18):
I guess I'm disappointed. You know, you want America first, right.

Speaker 4 (33:22):
Especially the fact that it's in Phoenix. You know, it's
in their backyard.

Speaker 2 (33:25):
Wanted the idiots technically an American company.

Speaker 1 (33:28):
Yes, yeah, but I mean we have we have the
best trip designers in the world, and we have to
go to Taiwan. So why do they have somebody build.

Speaker 3 (33:35):
Them where taiwant's coming here?

Speaker 2 (33:38):
Are they not?

Speaker 1 (33:39):
Well? They are now, they are now, but they haven't
been well.

Speaker 2 (33:42):
Aren't we the best chip chip designers? We're not the
necessarily the best chip builders.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
No, no, no, I didn't say we were. If I did,
I've missed. You know, we're the best chip designers in
the world, and yet we have companies like Intel, you know,
who can't find their way to the office. Yeah, right,
Why is Intel not Taiwan's am I how did they missed?

Speaker 3 (34:03):
Why have any similarities to IBM like twenty years ago
when it kind of flat lined? Remember how I.

Speaker 1 (34:09):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, And some of that's just size to
but I think Intel's really missed the book.

Speaker 3 (34:16):
That's not I'm just asking for similarities because I wasn't
trading when IBM was flatlined.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
I think it's kind of like Nissan the car company.
They're struggling to stay in business. They're having a merger
with Honda to survive. They've got like nine months cash
flow and they're done. How as a company like that,
with that kind of product line lineup, you get yourself
in that position. You turn left when you should turn right,
and you do it time and time again.

Speaker 4 (34:42):
Is there a geographical reason that these chips are built
in Taiwan? Manufacturing and Taiwan geographical reason?

Speaker 1 (34:48):
No, No, that they're the people that can do it right.

Speaker 2 (34:52):
Yeah, I mean earthquakes when it mattered, and I'm pretty
sure earthcakes to be more prevalent over there.

Speaker 4 (34:55):
Over there, I'm.

Speaker 1 (34:56):
Guessing you do not want to be having your people
manufactured in Taiwan. They can be manufactured in North Dakota.
Not to take out North Dakota, but or California or
Arizona for that matter. If you could get the Intel
plant in Arizona to manufacture chips as well as Taiwan Semiconductor,
you wouldn't want nothing to do with Taiwan Semiconductor. So

(35:18):
just disappointing that we seem to have a real leg
up in this area but can't seem to get it
to the finish line, that's all. And AMD struggling as well.
I don't get it now.

Speaker 2 (35:31):
I still think it's a good place to start a
position in AMD. I think it's a little overdone at
this point.

Speaker 1 (35:36):
Yeah, I'll be interested to see the next Apple quarter,
and I wouldn't be taking much of a position in Apple,
and I wouldn't get out obviously, but I wouldn't be
adding to my position until I saw the next quarter report,
because there's definitely some moving parts there. We'll be back
with the next segment right after this break. Thanks for
joining us.

Speaker 5 (35:52):
You're like the child with a smile on a merry.

Speaker 4 (36:00):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Worsini here with David Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg, and Todd Glick.

Speaker 1 (36:06):
Hey guys, Deanus traveling taking advantage of the three day
MLK weekend. It will be a busy day on Monday
with the MLK festivities, the inauguration of Donald Trump, and
the National Championship Football game. What a busy day and
it's just something for everybody there. It's just ironic, isn't it.

(36:29):
The Trump's getting inaugurated on MLK Junior Day.

Speaker 4 (36:32):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (36:33):
It's one of those things. Well, the Left has worked
so hard over the last two or three years to
make you believe Trump is a racist. I've watched Trump
for twenty years. I've not seen that side of him, frankly,
and I don't think it exists. But it's interesting that
this person that the Left is portrayed as this racist
is being inaugurated on MLK Junior.

Speaker 4 (36:53):
Day on purpose.

Speaker 1 (36:54):
I don't know. I want to talk a little bit
about the fires in LA because we have had client
and ask me, are there opportunities there for investing? Think
about a couple of things. This is a horrid, horrid tragedy.
Lives were lost, billions of property is gone. It's going

(37:16):
to take years to return a beautiful city to what
it was a week ago. It's a horrible, horrible tragedy.
But two tenths of all the homes in Los Angeles
burned point two right point two. So you say, well, okay,
would that be the way to go? Maybe maybe home depot.

(37:38):
And you have to think to yourself, well, is that
really enough homes. Let's say there's ten thousand homes. I've
heard twelve thousand structures some kind of ten thousand homes. Okay,
it's just a guess. Ten thousand homes get rebuilt. Is
that really enough to move the needle?

Speaker 4 (37:53):
And then we saw I was gonna say, it's a
better case than Whirlpool.

Speaker 1 (37:56):
We saw Whirlpool. Now the Sleepy shares of Wirlpool's Sleepy
shares up seventeen percent in the last ninety days, up
another six percent on Tuesday to a fifty two week high.
Well why is it rallying? Well, because everybody's going to
have to rebuild and replace all their appliances. Really, let's
say the company. The company does have annual sales of

(38:16):
about nineteen billion dollars. So let's say that ten thousand
homes were destroyed, and let's say in each one of
those homes is going to spend ten thousand dollars with Whirlpool.
Now you got to understand that all ten thousand are
going to go with Warldpool. So let's say Worldpool gets
an average and could I can hear you out there,
stands cost twenty five thousand dollars. I get it, Okay,

(38:39):
I understand. I've got a wife. I understand. Let's say
ten thousand dollars per home of Whirlpool appliances. That's going
to raise the company's sales by one half of one percent.
If if every single home that was destroyed bought ten
thousand dollars worth of Worldpool stuff, it would raise the

(39:01):
company's sales by one half of one percent.

Speaker 4 (39:04):
You're not moving the needle there.

Speaker 1 (39:05):
No so, And I've seen Home Deeple rally, and I've
seen Whirlpool rally, and I just say be careful if
you if you bought them because of the LA fires,
you might want to hit the bid. They've had a
nice rally here.

Speaker 4 (39:18):
Would you say, wirlpools up in the last ninety day
seventeen percent?

Speaker 1 (39:21):
Seventeen percent in the last ninety days, and that was
before a six percent rally on Tuesday, So twenty three
percent a new fifty two weeks high, right, and.

Speaker 2 (39:29):
If you look at that chart, it got hammered over
the last three years.

Speaker 1 (39:32):
Yeah, oh no, absolutely, it's just kind me.

Speaker 4 (39:34):
I mean, it hit a really technical level down round, it.

Speaker 2 (39:37):
Goes, it goes both ways. Sometimes the company will go
low and then it's supposed to and then it just
comes back to where it should be trading.

Speaker 1 (39:42):
I think, I'm I guess what I'm thinking saying is
is whether it be Warehouser or Home Depot or Whirlpool,
the LA fires are not going to move the needle.
And on the other side of that, we have a
slowing housing market. At home Depot as well, we have
a slowing housing market, so less demand for all of
those products. So the tragedy in LA as horrific as

(40:04):
it is, it is not going to move the needles
on those So if you're if you're going into that
area because of that, you might want to rethink that
whole thing.

Speaker 2 (40:13):
Yeah, I mean. One of the other places is the
insurance ETF. They got hit hard on the news of
the LA fires, but they've actually had a really good
week since then. Obviously, insurance EATF premiums insurance companies are
probably just going to increase their premiums after this certain
And we also found out that I guess some companies

(40:34):
didn't have or discontinued the fire coverage.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
Undred fifty homes a couple didn't have weeks before homewars
insurance but no fire protection.

Speaker 3 (40:43):
Yeah, because insurance companies also started dropping that in their coverage.

Speaker 1 (40:48):
I get it, I get yeah.

Speaker 3 (40:49):
They said it's kind of like hurricane insurance in Florida.
These insurance companies said they'll go in solving it.

Speaker 2 (40:54):
Look insurance CETF being up six percent in the past
five days, it's pretty big moves.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
That would have jumped. Okay, turns ETF. Oh, that's a
nice reboundary. No similar to Edison International. Edison International the
parent of Southern California. Edison Right, the utility and when
you ever have whenever you have a big fire, who
has the deepest pockets, right, So we hope it was
caused by Southern California as a we being the people

(41:18):
who live there, right, because they have the deep pockets.
Down eighteen percent to the fire start. It actually from
from a week before the fire started to the low
dropped thirty two percent. It lost thirty two percent. Of
its value. It rebounded fifteen percent because they're now starting
no oile. Maybe it was hikers, maybe it was arson.

(41:39):
If they can prove however, if they can prove it
was southern California edison, in a line of Southern California edison,
this dock is going to go much lower, much lower.
And all you have to do is look at Paradise
California fire and the Maui fire that darn near bankrupted
destroyed utilities, WHI Electric and PPG. I believe was the PGG,

(42:02):
well I can't remember it, but you do not want
to be a utility that's involved in a fire that
caused twenty billion dollars worth of damage. You're going to
have some You're going to have some issues.

Speaker 4 (42:14):
Why an electric man?

Speaker 2 (42:15):
That's I think what's something interesting about you're talking to
your point about home depot is most people when they
hit that seven percent interest rate mark or the high sixes,
they're not going to be looking at then doing their home.
So then they say, Okay, I'm going to look at
my same home that I'm already in and just going
to improve it.

Speaker 1 (42:30):
Right.

Speaker 2 (42:30):
So I think that's what we kind of saw in
twenty three and twenty four is if people aren't able
to move their home, they're going to say, let's just
make our current home better.

Speaker 1 (42:38):
Yeah. I think my point that, my whole point about
that was was certainly the their business home deep a
whirlpool warehouser. No, I think it's a separately not it's
probably not accelerating.

Speaker 2 (42:50):
No, No, it's a separate point from the fire. It's
more about saying that with interest rates going higher and
you see housing slowing, yes, housing sales they're slowing, but
I still feel like there's plenty of money for people
that want to re.

Speaker 4 (43:05):
Write and hoggyback on that. Think about all the people
that are covering their mortgage and don't want to go
buy a new house, you know, let's just do some
more in home improvements instead.

Speaker 1 (43:14):
Well, there is a lot of equity. Prices have come down,
but still there's substantial.

Speaker 2 (43:18):
And we've been hearing a lot that people are accessing
that equity to roll in their debts from other places.

Speaker 1 (43:24):
Well, you know, Da've handed all American letting predicted this
a year ago, he said once once the regardless of
what interest rates are, a seven percent rate is better
than a twenty percent rate. On your credit card occurrent
and we know that the consumers are at all time
record high credit card debt, right, so so you that
can't go on forever. It's not like the government. We

(43:46):
don't have printing presses in our house to whipping out dollars,
you know, like the government does.

Speaker 3 (43:51):
Yeah, the government's now thirty six trillion dollars in debt.
It's up forty percent from this time last or from
December of last year, and it just keeps going. They added,
what was it added, There's eighty six billion dollars in
debt during December, which was actually down from December of
twenty three, but it was two hundred and ten billion
added total last year.

Speaker 1 (44:10):
It's just ridiculous, and nobody's talking about it. Nobody's talking
about I wish you know, we got four of the
smartest people in the country in Washington Bezosa, Zuckerberg, Musk
and Trump. Right, how about you sit down and come
up with some ideas for the federal deficit, the federal debt.
I love that there are some of the smartest you know,

(44:32):
we've set I've set for years. People that are qualified
to be in government simply won't tolerate what you have
to tolerate to be in government. It won't tolerate that
kind of scrutiny, that kind of heat on their family. Yeah,
and it would be nice if these guys, who are
arguably the smartest people in the room would come into

(44:54):
the room and try to fix some things.

Speaker 3 (44:56):
So for the government's fiscal year of twenty twenty five,
so far, they've already paid the intern eight billion dollars
in interest, which is up seven percent from here ago.
So that's the big issue, is that the government just
keeps spending interest payments.

Speaker 1 (45:10):
Yeah, it's a huge issue. And I think we saw
the god last week, we saw the highest interest rates
in a year and a half, I think what you said,
or something a little over October twenty three, Yeah, October
twenty three. And that's those are that's money the government
has to pay.

Speaker 2 (45:24):
But again, the issue is is our GDP is too high.
That's what's warranting these high rates. Sure, and so in theory,
if you have a high GDP, you can pay off
those high rates. The problem is you have too much
other things you're paying for, like you know, these social programs,
medicare just that whatever. So then all of a sudden

(45:46):
You're you're making enough money to cover your bills, but
you added so much other bills on top of it
because you wanted to be the socialist slash capitalist system.
And that's the problem with our government. There's just too
many socialist programs and we're a apitalist system. So there's
going to be at some point a disconnect, and we're
hitting that disconnect over the last couple of years, and

(46:07):
it's getting to a point where it just doesn't make sense.
And that's why people continue to bring it up. It
doesn't seem like it can continue this way for much
further other than just the numbers getting bigger and bigger
and no one caring.

Speaker 1 (46:19):
Well it all it's all about your ratio of debt
to GDP, right. Yeah, it's not the highest it's ever been. Honestly,
it was high back in twenty twenty. It was higher
because GDP fell apart. So debt to GDP is a
huge number. Are we in an area that's irreversible, No,
but we're approaching that area.

Speaker 2 (46:38):
I also saw an interesting other indicator was it was
debt to liquidation value, which which meaning as an ass
as a company, if you have assets and that's not
technically you're not producing that each year, but it still is.
You could liquidate it to pay your bills. Yeah, that's
an interesting way to look at it as well. We
have a lot of assets that we could that we have.

Speaker 1 (46:55):
I just think that probably the most significant thing you
can do to lower the new national debt is to
get interest rates down. Obviously, cutting fluff, cutting welfare programs
not well.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
For then you get inflation, So which one do you care?

Speaker 1 (47:09):
Right? Right, So you've you've got to get interest rights
down and that balance it. I think that's probably the
quickest solution is to get interestraged down because, like Dylan
pointed out, the interest payments are now about what fifteen
to twenty percent of our entire federal budget, and that
can't that can't continue for.

Speaker 4 (47:30):
A long period, more than our defense budget.

Speaker 1 (47:32):
Ye, I mean, it's ridiculous. Anyway, we'll be back with
the second half of the Money Matters Show. We thank
you for taking time to join us on this cold
Sunday morning.

Speaker 5 (47:41):
You're like the child with a smile on a merry.

Speaker 3 (47:52):
Welcome back to the second hour the Money Matters Show.
I'm here with Dave Sherwood, Todd glick sebashion boards see
Dean Greenberg is enjoined his fake day. But for those
of you just tuning in, the Dow was up three
point seven percent for the week. The S and P
five hundred was up two point nine percent for the week,
The nas deck was up two point four percent, that
Russell two thousand was up four percent, and the RSP,

(48:14):
which is the equal weight to sm P five hundred,
was up three point nine percent. So the equal weight
to S and P five hundred was actually up more
than the S and P five hundred, which isn't doesn't
happen often the last couple of years, Yes, right, and
it might have been because of Apple, probably because and
Vidio didn't have a great week either. It was kind
of flat. It was it was down forbid, then it

(48:35):
came back. But yeah, I mean for the year. Obviously,
we're just in the first few weeks of the year.
The Dow's up two point two percent, the SMP is
up two percent, nasdc's up one point seven Russell two
thousands up two percent, and the RSP is up two
point seven percent. There's a whole the market's been doing
well in the first few weeks of the year. Which
is normal. January tends to be a good year with
all the new money coming in, and I will dispute

(48:56):
my dad with that too, just like you will. Money
gets put to work in January, not necessarily all of it,
but you're always putting into four to one k's. Regardless
of how much money you make during the year January,
you will contribute to it, and most likely some of
that money is getting put to work. When you add
it all up as a lot of money going into.

Speaker 1 (49:13):
The markets, Yeah, you'd really have to struggle to have
the market be down in January with the amount of
money that's coming into the market.

Speaker 3 (49:20):
There's got to be like a black Swan event happening
on New Year's Day for that to happen. Other than that,
the first month or two is usually good, and we
usually you'll see the markets settle in towards the end
of March, and then it kind of just happens. The
year happens how it happens. Trump is getting inaugurated tomorrow.
That is gonna be a big thing, obviously, but a

(49:40):
lot of the things he's gonna say is gonna set
the groundwork for the rest of the year. And obviously
the next three years after that, so it's gonna be
interesting what he says. Obviously, we're thinking he wants to
and the immigration, the whole border policy. He wants to
talk about crypto, which I don't know if he's gonna
do on Monday, but crypto is a big one. Bitcoin
had a great week at the end of the way.
Week is over one hundred and five thousand to the

(50:02):
end of the week. So it's gonna be interesting what
he says. It's probably gonna be pretty much what he
has been saying through his campaign and after he got elected.
He tends to stay to that. He does flip though,
I mean this TikTok band. He used to want to
ban TikTok, now he does and he wants to make
a deal with she. So we'll see what happens with
China and that. But he has been talking to g

(50:22):
as of last week.

Speaker 1 (50:23):
So the Trump two point h is rightfully, we're very
excited about it because of his first two years in office.
We're very very good for the market until COVID hit
right and he got kind of got stuck with COVID
and we never did find out how it would have
been for if we had four years of.

Speaker 3 (50:40):
Yeah, and then you got politicians blaming him for the
nine percent inflation, and after in Biden's term, every every
Democrat blamed Trump, every Republican blames Democrats. Now, so it's
just you don't really know exactly what could have happen,
like you said, because he just shut everything down. And
then the Democrats are saying they have all these records
of jobs, creations and everything because he's the government down.

(51:01):
You shut the world down, It's gonna happen. That's found
to happen. So it's like you got to get off
your pedestal a bit. But all politicians do it both sides.
They take credit for everything and they blame everybody else
for the bad things.

Speaker 1 (51:10):
Be nice if he could have a full four years
without a pandemic in there or some other thing that
would distract I mean, what are you doing.

Speaker 3 (51:18):
Democrats were having a little better tune after he got elected,
so maybe that can stay through the next four years
rather than trying to just rip them apart, because I
don't know if that worked too well during the election process,
which they thought it would, because Kamala didn't really have
much to run on. She was a very good candidate.
They knew it, so they had to just rip Trump down.
It didn't work, just like it didn't with Hillary Clinton. Rather,

(51:38):
people want to just hear good things about what they're
going to do or what they're going to do, not
so much just rip the other person apart.

Speaker 1 (51:44):
But he's a pro business president and that's what we'd
like to see, and hopefully he can can get the
business going and get the border closed and get some
international respect.

Speaker 3 (51:56):
It'll be interesting with the tariffs. So he talked about
very aggressive terrorists, which I mean you could you could
see short term inflation with that.

Speaker 1 (52:02):
Oh yes, absolutely, because if he.

Speaker 3 (52:03):
Increases it then I mean it's not and if you
think about it, it could be short term inflation. And
obviously the Democrats is gonna run with that. But if
it's the idea of getting out of China and not
being so dependent on them with everything, or trying to
get the industries back to the US, that's not a
bad thing. It's gonna unless you're looking purely at inflation,

(52:24):
it's probably gonna cause inflation for a bit. Because you're
getting out of these labor sweatshops bringing back to us,
you're gonna have to charge more you're gonna have to
pay more for the works. Everything's gonna cost more. That's
what's gonna happen. But if you're looking for just being
less dependent on other countries, then that's not a bad thing. Right,
But you will see most likely inflation.

Speaker 4 (52:45):
I'm gonna be interested to see if he actually does
anything with terrorists, just because I think it's more of
a negotiating negotiation tactic more than anything.

Speaker 1 (52:52):
Right, Yeah, right, yeah, I agree with that. I agree
with that. I could see that.

Speaker 3 (52:56):
I could see that it's just a lot of it's
increasing terrorists, it's not making brand new ones.

Speaker 2 (53:00):
Paris.

Speaker 3 (53:00):
We have tarifts on people already, they have tariff's on us.
It's just a normal thing. And it's just how much
is he going to try and increase from what country?

Speaker 1 (53:09):
Well, we elected him because we wanted to go a
different direction, and we are going to go a different direction.
I promise you not every thing he does is going
to be favored by either the right or the left.
So hopefully he can with one just one term, no
chance of reelection, he can actually do what he believes

(53:30):
his right to make America great again. And I think
that's that's his Mantra, and that's what he's going to
try to do. I wouldn't want to go a whole
show without talking about electric vehicles, right.

Speaker 3 (53:40):
I thought we were doing it.

Speaker 1 (53:42):
Yeah, I got in here, I go in you know.
Auto data firm Mortar Motor Intelligence reported that three point
two million electrified vehicles electrified in print sees we're sold
last year twenty percent of all new car sales still
fifty hybrid for all electric. Tesla continued to dominate the

(54:05):
sale of pure evs, but Cox Automotive estimated Tesla's annual
sales did fall uh and its market should drop to
forty nine percent U. And again, that's just because of
increased competition. You see a lot of eluxury vehicles as
you drive around town, and more and more of them
are not Tesla's, just simply because there are more choices,

(54:27):
And why someone doesn't get a Tesla when Tesla has
been doing it for fifteen years and everybody else has
been doing it for fifteen minutes. My informal survey says
that price is a part of that. There are electury
vehicles cheaper than Tesla, and the primary thing I hear
is politics. They're not going to get a Tesla because

(54:47):
they don't like Monk.

Speaker 4 (54:48):
Yeah. I saw a bumper sticker the other day and
it said something like, we bought this Tesla before we
knew that Elon was a whack job.

Speaker 1 (54:54):
Oh really, that's ridiculous. Oh really, that's the bumper stick
That's what the bumper. You can always tell if it's
somebody in the left. Could they stick it round on
the paint? You know, you don't see a lot of
right wingers with bumper figgers.

Speaker 4 (55:06):
I'm not putting nothing, no.

Speaker 1 (55:07):
Not not either. Why would you stick it around? Stick
it around on the paint, kids me.

Speaker 4 (55:11):
Lucid has actually been catching a bid of these past
three months. They're up about twelve percent. I don't actually
follow the company. I don't really know what their balance
sheet looks like at all. The only thing that I
do know about them is that they're fifty one percent
owned by Saudi investments firm.

Speaker 1 (55:26):
You know they're not going under, right, you.

Speaker 4 (55:28):
Know they're not going under, and I mean not three
dollars a share.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
Look, plenty of sovereign wealth funds have made really bad
investments just because of sovereign well fund invest in You
does not meet the companies.

Speaker 1 (55:39):
So you're saying that they would let it go. They
would let it go.

Speaker 2 (55:43):
They don't get to decide whether a business model is
going to work or no.

Speaker 1 (55:46):
I don't really if the sales were bad enough, Ye.

Speaker 2 (55:50):
They have to. What are you going to keep sinking
money into something that's not gonna work?

Speaker 1 (55:53):
You design? You know, they have analysts.

Speaker 4 (55:56):
How you're how you're talking, like, what why do people
not buy the Tesla since they been doing it for
so long?

Speaker 1 (56:01):
Right?

Speaker 4 (56:02):
Maybe it's a price thing. And then Lucid motors they're
a little bit more luxury, if you will, right, So there,
I think I'm pretty sure that they're more expensive than
the Tesla. So to your point, yeah, I think I
think why would I go and buy the more expensive one?
You know, when I still am worried about my range
and this and that.

Speaker 1 (56:20):
I understand. I've been driving to Tesla now for coming
up on two years, and I love it. I love it.
But when the lease is up and I'm going to
lease another electric, but I'll probably do something different just
because they want theme.

Speaker 4 (56:32):
Different another Like you're not going to definitely another.

Speaker 1 (56:35):
Electric vehicle, I'm hooked. I'm hooked. I mean, if you
only have one car. I think it's challenging in this
environment to have electric.

Speaker 4 (56:42):
Are you going for that Ford?

Speaker 1 (56:43):
But if you have two, I really like the Ford Machi.
I love that car. I think that's one of the
coolest cars on the road.

Speaker 2 (56:49):
I'll tell you what my hybrid it has over a
six hundred mile range and that's pretty I maybe fill
up twice a month, so for people who want to
not go to the pump as much. I can get
up to seventy five miles per gallon average, around forty
seven miles per gallon. It's definitely a perfect I don't

(57:11):
even know. I think maybe like twelve thirt doesn't matter, right, Yeah,
if you can take me six hundred miles, that's all
I need on no matter. There's times where I'll do
like a fifteen mile drive and my rain doesn't go
down at all because it's just it runs on the EV. Yeah,
Like the new evs can even charge the battery while
you're coasting.

Speaker 1 (57:28):
Sure, well that's the regenita of breaking, that's.

Speaker 2 (57:30):
Well, that's what does The old school was just the
just when you break it charged the battery. But the
new one is where even when you coast it can
charge it.

Speaker 1 (57:37):
So I left my house crazy. I left my house
with eighty percent charge to go to Mount Lemon with
my Tesla. When I got to the top, I had
thirty percent battery left right right, yeah, But when I
got back to my house, I had seventy percent battery. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (57:51):
I mean when I came back from the pine top
it was the same way.

Speaker 1 (57:54):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (57:55):
My gas mileage of said like, oh, you increased about
like twenty five miles.

Speaker 1 (57:58):
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Charging your battery as you go, And
that's the same thing when you go to San Diego. Uh,
you have to stop and charge in El Centro because
you have to go up the mountains and when you
get to the top of the mountain is getting pretty
low on the battery. And then coming down into San
Diego you recharge it all the way because you're not
using the battery. It's kind of it's an interesting technology.
It's not for everybody, but I think Todd, your range

(58:22):
is very impressive, and if you could get a solid
state battery or some type of technology that could get
that kind of range on an electric vehicle, there'd be
no reason to have any other kind of car.

Speaker 4 (58:33):
Are you still on your EV segment? Here are you
still doing it?

Speaker 1 (58:37):
I can move on if you no, no, no, you
go go.

Speaker 3 (58:39):
Well.

Speaker 4 (58:39):
I was just thinking, you know, since you talk about
your EV's, I can't go a week without talking about
the semic glue tides.

Speaker 1 (58:44):
Yeah I have. Well, I got that on my list too.
That's next down my list, and it's it's a lot
to talk about there, let's talk about it now. You
want to talk about tell people with some my glue
tide is it's a weight loss stroke. There you go. So,
so we're talking about the the ozampics and the monros
and the zep bounds.

Speaker 4 (59:00):
Nova, Nordisk, and Lily. They're the big companies, that's, you know,
the big beneficiaries of these semiglutide drugs. CMS Centers for
Medicare and Medicaid Services released its second round of their
drug negotiation targets. This is a list of fifteen drugs
that are under Medicare Part D. This included Novo's ozepic
and WeGo V, which is the are semi glutide drug

(59:21):
that is geared towards weight loss rather than diabetes. Okay,
stocks reacted really poorly on this. Nova went down five
percent on Friday. Eli Lilly went down four percent. But
what was what I was thinking about? I went through
the list. Okay, which drugs of Eli Lilly's are on
this list? None? Right, they actually left ter Zeppetide, which

(59:45):
is the compound that Eli Lilly uses in Monjaro and
zep bound drugs, was left off the table.

Speaker 1 (59:52):
Different compound, right, So.

Speaker 4 (59:54):
It'll be interesting to see, you know, if they're going
to be the beneficiary of this.

Speaker 1 (01:00:01):
It really is an interesting space to watch because you
could make the argument that those drugs could easily become
the biggest selling drugs in the history of our country.
You could you could make that case. And yet Eli
Lilly stock has dropped twenty five percent, Novo Nordics down

(01:00:23):
almost fifty percent, Novo Nordics down almost fifty percent from
high new fifty two weeks low, almost daily, and you're
starting the long knives are starting to come out, you know,
the all of the detractors. Well, you know, people are
just not going to because we know that with those
empic and zet bound and drugs like that, that you

(01:00:46):
need to take them for the.

Speaker 4 (01:00:47):
Rest of your life essentially. I mean mean, you're once
you start, unless you completely made a lifestyle change, right.

Speaker 1 (01:00:53):
I think even if you did, it's a you can't.

Speaker 2 (01:00:57):
You're not gonna You're not gonna get your bone mass no, like,
because that's what you lose some of it, right, you
get off it, your your bone mas's probably coming back
right three months later. Yeah, so you're saying, like, what,
maybe the fat part doesn't come back to change your lifestyle,
but there's other parts that's not just fat that you're
losing that probably comes back the minute you stop.

Speaker 1 (01:01:17):
It, right and if you're able and go ahead.

Speaker 4 (01:01:21):
So I was just going toast. So then you're just saying,
why would I get off the strug if I'm just
going to delete all my progress?

Speaker 2 (01:01:26):
Well, you delete at least forty percent because we know
only sixty percent I think we said was is actually
fat loss.

Speaker 1 (01:01:31):
Yeah, you think seventy five percent. I think we said
twenty five percent was muscle and bone.

Speaker 2 (01:01:35):
Okay, Yeah, so then yeah, you'd lose twenty five percent
of your games. You would theoretically say if you didn't
have a lifestyle change.

Speaker 1 (01:01:42):
Yeah, right, but you have to think if you're going
to go to the point where you have this injection
once a week, right, I think it's weekly yeah, if
you get this injection once a week, you've actually gotten
to that point where you say, you know what, I'm
going to have that injection. I don't think you're given
serious consideration the lifestyle changes, because I mean, if you

(01:02:02):
were given serious consideration to lifestyle, well, wouldn't you try
that first.

Speaker 4 (01:02:06):
I think that the lifestyle change just happens automatically in
some some sense, in the form of appetite suppression. Right, Okay,
so if you get off the drug, of course I'm
gonna get more hungry. Yeah, I'm gonna start you need
more so, so your point, tod, Yeah, I'm going to
stay on the structure.

Speaker 2 (01:02:19):
The rest of drugs don't increase discipline, No, they help
the opposite when you aren't disciplined to help for you know,
fix things.

Speaker 1 (01:02:28):
I'm starting to hear, well, the government's not going to
pay for it. What people aren't going to stay on it.
People are going off of it because they can't do
it every week. It's too expansive. You know. Again, the
long knives, which is what you call the negative analyst,
The long knives are out.

Speaker 2 (01:02:42):
Eventually there's going to be an everything drug. You know,
you take one thing, it cures ten things and well.

Speaker 1 (01:02:47):
And then they have a they have a pill. Eli
has a weight loss pill. They're not out yet, No,
not out yet, and and that could be a game changer.
The stocks that are are Eli Lily in particular, is
price for perfection.

Speaker 2 (01:03:02):
Yeah, that one has not come down the same way
Novo has.

Speaker 1 (01:03:04):
Now it's five times. It's five times the price of
any other drugs.

Speaker 4 (01:03:08):
I think the reason that it's holding up is just
because they have the what the Alzheimer drugs in their
R and D FUGU and it's you know, trial after trial,
it's making progress.

Speaker 1 (01:03:17):
Right right, But these drugs are are Remember there was
a shortage and so they hired these compound pharmacies to
manufacture these drugs, and the federal government said that was okay,
and then Lily and Noble screamed and the government said, okay,
but yeah, within sixty to ninety days you have to stop.

(01:03:39):
And yet I still see on TV ads from Hymns
and Hers.

Speaker 4 (01:03:44):
Or any or any other compound pharmacies.

Speaker 1 (01:03:47):
Using the little Eli Lilly formula on the screen.

Speaker 2 (01:03:51):
Right. But I was wondering this myself. Could it just
be a backlog of supply they have now they're just
trying to get through it.

Speaker 1 (01:03:57):
Absolutely could be.

Speaker 2 (01:03:58):
Right, might they might have stopped, but they just have
so much.

Speaker 1 (01:04:02):
If the demand is not what it was believed to be,
then these these price reductions are justified.

Speaker 4 (01:04:10):
I was reading an article a couple of weeks ago
about how Eli, Lilly and Novo actually dual manufacture their
drugs together at the same plants. Is that interesting competitors
just you know, they're making the same drugs, same plants.

Speaker 1 (01:04:23):
Yeah, I think the compound pharmacies.

Speaker 2 (01:04:25):
It's kind of like how Navidia would probably make their
same chips where amd MAD makes some that Taiwan just
designers and they say.

Speaker 1 (01:04:32):
As long as as long as there's a Chinese wall,
right right.

Speaker 4 (01:04:36):
But Dave, you did say something. You said something to
me earlier today, and you know a lot of uncertainty
around these companies. But with uncertainty what comes about opportunity,
absolutely right, So yeah, keep keeping an eye closely on
these things.

Speaker 1 (01:04:49):
Absolutely so. If you're looking to initiate a position.

Speaker 2 (01:04:53):
And a full disclosure. We did initiate a position in
Novo this week.

Speaker 1 (01:04:56):
Yes, a small position in Noble initiated it. And that's
how you want to do it. You want to doll
our cost average and you want to do it slowly.

Speaker 2 (01:05:05):
It's come down significantly off it's all time high, so
it's a nice place to get your feet wet. See
how it's going to react off its earning support that
will have this quarter and then go from there.

Speaker 1 (01:05:15):
Yeah, I mean, you've been waiting to buy this car
if it ever got down to thirty thousand, right, and
it's now at twenty nine thousand, So you go in
and buy it. Well, you know, it doesn't mean it's
not going to go to twenty five thousand. They're kind
of like the Tesla, but you.

Speaker 2 (01:05:27):
Got to be disciplined at times.

Speaker 1 (01:05:29):
I think the model why Tesla was up some one
point almost seventy grand and it's now in the forties.
So it you know, that doesn't mean it's a worse car.
It's actually a better car than it was when it
was more expensive. But they've had to bring the price
down because of competition.

Speaker 2 (01:05:44):
We saw the insurance ETF get a nice bid this week.
Like we said, it was up six percent in the
past five days on the on the back of the
fire's kind of cooling. Also, people realizing that they didn't
have the same obligations that people thought they might have
because they canceled a lot of fire insurance apparently. But
another sector in the economy did very well was the
nuclear space. We've been following the nuclear space using the

(01:06:06):
ETF NLR. It's a vanac uranium and nuclear ETF. They
keep kind of moving around the composition of this, but
this is in ETF that has holdings in OKLOW and SMR,
which is those small Maudi reactor companies, but also uranium
minors people like Constellation Energy Camco. There's another uranium ETF
that's ur but a closer dive into those holdings you

(01:06:28):
can find that it's twenty five percent of Camco, which
is too much exposure to one company. So we like
the NLR as a good benchmark for what the nuclear
space is doing. And it was up four percent over
the past five days, a nice little rebound off. It's
sell off that kind of every sector saw last week
again what Trump might say about the energy needs of
our country. Obviously they're high. I saw an interesting chart

(01:06:51):
that I think Thaieland's producing more coal than ever. There's
huge energy needs coal than ever. We're going backwards in
what we're using for energy product because there's so much
of a need of it currently that it doesn't matter
where we can get it. We just need to produce.

Speaker 1 (01:07:05):
So I remember correctly, China has something like sixty it's
crazy our plants on the drawing board, Yes, coal fired plant.

Speaker 4 (01:07:13):
Yeah, on the drawing board. Wow, new ones.

Speaker 2 (01:07:16):
Yeah, because and they do have like five new nuclear
but yeah, they know that the coal is way easier
to prop up than the nuclears.

Speaker 1 (01:07:23):
You're cheap or quicker. Yeah, we can get this thing
up and running prey quickly.

Speaker 2 (01:07:26):
And and like you said earlier, with your good report
on the China oil consumption being two thirds out of
the Americas but having double more than probably double the
population size, you then start to realize, as China continues
their insurgents into just being a first world nation, more
people urbanizing, getting these new products, their need for oil

(01:07:48):
is going to increase. So they see that, and that's
why they're pushing into these coal energy plants to make
sure they have the energy needs that their country is
going to need over the next ten twenty years.

Speaker 1 (01:07:58):
And they don't have to worry about the tree huggers.
Good in the way, they definitely don't over there no,
you know that we talked about things that Trump's gonna do. Yell,
and I think you mentioned number one on the list
with the grant pardon all the well.

Speaker 3 (01:08:11):
Yeah, one of them. There's eleven things that he plans
to do on the first day, and one was pardon
all the January sixth defendants that are still in jail. Oh,
there you go, and that one, and then immigration policy
and all that stuff that he's been talking about. This
is the stuff he's been talking about. But those are
the things he wants to do on.

Speaker 2 (01:08:26):
Day one, and there's a lot of things that could
that he could say. Markets might react. But what we
always like to say is for twenty twenty five, when
you're in January, even first part of February, it's a
great time to come back and review your plan. So
we've had a lot of people coming. But also just
if you're someone listening to the show, you've been waiting
to come in and do the financial plan. Now is
a great time because we're at the first of the year.

(01:08:48):
We have plenty of time to talk about what if
scenarios for the total totality of what twenty twenty five
could look at look like. But also we have a
good runway now of what we're going to have for
the next four years. From like a standpoint, we're pretty
sure that that tax Act is going to get continued,
so we can play some strategies. We have a four
year window to look at raw conversions. I mean, this week,

(01:09:08):
I spend almost four hours on a plan trying to
figure out how exactly is the most efficient way to
do raw conversions. As this couple had tiered different social
Security so when they retired, they're showing the least amount
of income, but they still need to supplement their income.
So where do you get the income for them without
actually increasing their taxable base to allow you to put

(01:09:30):
as much into the rack conversions in the most efficient matter.
So we specialize in looking at accelerated raw conversions, looking
at efficient withdrawal strategies, changing the bell curve of distribution
of spending. Because what most people fail to realize is
if you just have a standard financial plan that's going
to average two point five inflation rate increasing on your

(01:09:53):
spending figures each year, that's pretty good. But if you
start to realize that once you hit the age eighty,
every single year after that, you're not going to keep
increasing your spending. You're actually probably going to be decreasing
your spending after you hit age eighty because you just
don't have the ability to spend as much. So there's
different ways that we can incorporate the plan where you
spend more in your early years of retirement where you

(01:10:15):
have the ability to do so, take bigger trips, and
then decrease spending on the back end. There's just many
different ways that people fail to realize that they have
the opportunity to be a little more efficient and take
advantage of the time now that they have in their
most healthy years. It's not only about amassing wealth. We
see it all the time when people hit the late
eight seventies or early eighties and they have a large portfolio.

(01:10:38):
You're just not going to be able to spend it
at that point. At that point, it's really just going
to be about charities. So if you really have a
goal to spend all the money you worked hard for,
you're going to have to start a plan and create
a plan of how you're going to spend it, what
trips you're going to go on, And we're actually going
to have to see the portfolio decrease in value over time.
If you want to bounce your last check, many people
come in the wind the door and say that they

(01:11:00):
have no actual ability to do that level of spending now.

Speaker 1 (01:11:03):
And the one thing you're not going to get from
any financial planner I've ever talked to is this outside
of the box thinking that was going on with this
particular case that you mentioned, the exploring the cash value
life insurance, whether or not that was available, It was
substantial whether or not that was available to provide some

(01:11:24):
additional income, so you could take to the Roth conversion.
How that's going to impact access, how that's going to
impact social security, how impact Anneticu. I mean, it's just
amazing all of the moving parts that are involved there
and the types of most places that you would go to,
and it's not even going to come up. It's not

(01:11:45):
even going to come up. And not only did you
bring it up, but started to explore some very very
creative ideas as to how these people might be able
to maintain the lifestyle they have now, the living standard
they now, and accomplish what they want to accomplish with
the Ros conversion. We'll be back with more of the

(01:12:06):
Money Matter show after this break. We'd love to see
in the office.

Speaker 5 (01:12:09):
Give us call you like the child with the smile
on a marry good.

Speaker 2 (01:12:21):
Welcome back to the Moneymatter Show. My name is Toddlick.
I'm here with Sebastian Borc and Dylan Greenberg and David Sherwood.
This week we have some new shows that are going
to be aired on nbckvo Way. We'll go to be
after Meet the Press in the morning as well as
after the ten o'clock News Sunday night. Take advantage of
our new financial planning shows that we've had on there.

(01:12:42):
They've been really good and a lot of people have
liked them. We're also posting them on YouTube. You can
go to our Greenberg Financial Group YouTube page see my
weekly market updates as well as those TV shows. Obviously,
go to our Facebook page. You can sign up for
our newsletter. We just came out with a new newsletter
kind of recapping what twenty twenty four look like, what
to expel back for twenty twenty five. Always, we have

(01:13:02):
our radio show Saturday Morning six thirty twelve twelve thirty,
and we even have some Jonathan Sibilia and mel Greenberg
talking about a state planning at different times.

Speaker 4 (01:13:12):
They actually change those times. It's six thirty eight, eight thirty,
eleven and eleven thirty. Now, gotcha. That's Saturday, Saturday.

Speaker 1 (01:13:18):
Morningday morning, so like every half hour.

Speaker 4 (01:13:21):
Yeah, I hour.

Speaker 2 (01:13:22):
We're big on Saturday morning certainly. Yeah, And obviously our
flagship show continues. You can always listen. If you don't
catch us the full show, just go to your favorite podcast,
type in Money Matters with Dean Greenberg. You can find
all the shows anytime you want on demand.

Speaker 1 (01:13:37):
And they're on our website, right.

Speaker 2 (01:13:39):
So, yeah, and for some of our clients that maybe
are listening don't know, you can always go to our
website and the clients. Now, as like a general message,
there's two different portals. We have an old portal called
Investor Connect and we have a new portal called Advisor Connect.
Both are on our website. If you have already been trained,

(01:14:00):
sort over to new Greenberg. Use the new portal. If
you're most of you should not be using the old portal,
which is Investor Connect. Everyone should now be using Advisor Connects.
So if you haven't updated your portal, give us a call.
We can help you do that. Your figures should probably
are not going to be updated. If you have not
updated your portal.

Speaker 1 (01:14:16):
And if you're a client of ours and you get
a monthly savement that shows all of your assets are
gone and they've moved. They have moved from Old Greenberg
to New Greenberg.

Speaker 2 (01:14:23):
Yes, everything is well.

Speaker 1 (01:14:24):
Don't don't freak out that you've been spammed or we
have no. We have not allowed people to be able
to get into their portfolios and move cash for that
very reason. So it's one hundred percent secure. No one's
going to get in overnight and take your money. They can.

Speaker 2 (01:14:40):
We are really excited about this transition because we are
going to be a completely fee based advisory firm now
one hundred percent for Douciare. We won't have any part
of our business as commission oriented. So that's really going
to be just a better service for the client as
a whole, and it gives a little bit of different ability.
One of the coolest things I think that a lot
of clients don't know is the credit access line and

(01:15:01):
how if you have an individual account, a joint account
of trust account, any non retirement account, you can set
up a credit access line. There's a lot of creative
ways that we've seen people use, especially for home purchases,
as you being a cash buyer is going to make
you so much more attractive in negotiations. A lot of
the times people are trying to sell a home first
to get that cash and don't have something like a

(01:15:22):
bridge loan to bring that cash forward to the new
home transaction. So what you can do is loan against
the value of your individual account or joint your trust account.
Take that money, buy the new house, and once you
sell the new house, pay down the credit access line
that you used for the cash buyer of the new house.
So there's a lot of creative ways to make your
life easy to lady, use the assets that you've accumulated

(01:15:44):
in efficient ways.

Speaker 1 (01:15:46):
I want to talk about the most popular four to
oh one K investment. You know what that is?

Speaker 2 (01:15:52):
SMP oh, no, the g fund money market.

Speaker 1 (01:15:55):
What do you think? What do you think? What do
you think? You know it's either got to be money
market one K investment choice.

Speaker 2 (01:16:01):
Well, the defaults are target date funds.

Speaker 1 (01:16:03):
There you go. Two thirds yeah, yeah, two thirds of
investments are and what they call target date target dates funds. Right,
And it's because it's easy. It's the one decision investment
you don't have to deal with it again. Funds are
designed to become more conservative as you approach retirement or
the target if you will. However, the more equity exposure

(01:16:24):
that you have. This is historically, the more equity exposure
you have, the better you're going to do. And what
we found out from the target date funds is they
get too conservative too soon. So let's assume that today
is twenty twenty five, right, and you're forty years old,
and you want to retire when you're sixty five, so
that would be twenty fifty. I would suggest that instead

(01:16:47):
of using a twenty fifty target fund, and there's nothing
wrong with the target funds, but instead of using the
twenty fifty target fund, maybe June the twenty seventy target fund,
which will keep you more fully invested in equities for longer.
The target funds just simply seeming to become too conservative
too fast.

Speaker 4 (01:17:05):
Check what's inside the target date funds too. Just because
you know, I was doing a review for some four
on k's that we do and we actually have to
go in there and update the performance numbers on target
date funds, right, so you have let's take a look
real quick. Twenty forty five target date fund that performed
eight point seven six percent.

Speaker 1 (01:17:23):
Last year last year with the market of twenty.

Speaker 4 (01:17:25):
Yep that what did I say? That was twenty forty
I'm sorry eight point seven right, twenty forty five said
it's like twenty sixty. All I'm trying to say is
that they're the same performance numbers. Twenty forty five eight
point six eight point seven six, Yeah, that should be
twenty twenty fifty eight point seventy five should be higher.
Twenty fifty five eight point seventy three, yeah, even lower

(01:17:48):
than the amazing Right.

Speaker 1 (01:17:49):
That's why you have to go out at least twenty
years beyond or or you know the other The other
way to do that is to, let's say your example,
I use someone I'm gonna try in twenty five years,
choose the twenty fifty target date fund for maybe half
of your funds, and then put the other half of it.

Speaker 2 (01:18:04):
We're definitely not recommending anything for an employer sponsored plan
because financial advisors, because of the Department of Labor doesn't
allow financial advisors to give advice to people. So it's
one of those things that we can give you education
about what the target date fund is, what it accomplishes
or what it tries to accomplish. Ultimately, you have to
make the decision if it's right for you. But yeah,

(01:18:27):
these target day funds are designed to be conservative as
you approach retirement, and as we've seen in our opinion,
they're probably a little more conservative than they ought to be.
But regardless, you'll have to make the decision for your
own self if you think that your money should be
in a different place.

Speaker 1 (01:18:45):
Sure, And like Sebastian's disclaimer said, we don't make recommendations
on the show. We don't know your investment objectives. We
don't know your risk tolerance. We can't say yes you
should have Bitcoin, or yes you should have DuPont or
we're simply talking about company needs and what's happening with companies.
We're not suggesting you buy them or suggesting you tell them.

(01:19:05):
Are simply informational.

Speaker 4 (01:19:07):
Wait wait, wait, wait, we were talking some trash about
and tell did you see what happened on them on front?

Speaker 1 (01:19:11):
I'm talking about target date funds.

Speaker 4 (01:19:12):
Okay, I just don't want to talk about that, but I.

Speaker 1 (01:19:15):
Thought there was an interesting thing that came up about
target date funds. So there was a vanguard was fined
one hundred million dollars by the SEC to settle charges
relating to Target date funds.

Speaker 4 (01:19:29):
Charges.

Speaker 1 (01:19:30):
Yeah related, No charges from the SEC against not what
they're charging. Get this. The alleged violation stems from a
twenty twenty change when Vanguard lowered the minimum investment requirement
for his institutional target date funds. What that caused people

(01:19:50):
to do is to quickly switch from the higher fee
funds to the lower fee funds. So what happens then
if you didn't do that? Now I've full disclosure. I've
got a brother in law in Kentucky who never refinanced
his house. He's paying seven and a half, has been
for the last ten years. You know, are you serious?

(01:20:11):
There are people out there that are just not paying attention.
So here you've got this, this better fund that people
could take advantage of. So what happens if half of
the people in the target date fund go to the
new institutional target date fund because they had lower fees? Well,
the target date fund needs to sell securities like mad
to meet those redemptions. Right, who gets hung with that tag?

(01:20:35):
People that didn't move my right, So you've got these
giant capital gains that piled up, and so the SEC
is saying, the Vanguard, you did not fully disclose what's
going on here. You needed to be a little bit
more attentive today. I thought it's kind of funny. I
thought that was kind of an interesting approach that those
people got tagged with all of the capital gains and stuff.

(01:20:58):
We talked about the consumer price Index. I got the list.
It's always kind of fun to look at, you know.
Back on top of the eggs again. You know, eggs.
We were up eighties ninety percent during the pandemic, and
then eggs were down and cal Maine, the largest egg
producer in the country, cal Maine Foods, was struggling. Now
the stock has doubled over the last twelve months, eggs

(01:21:19):
up thirty seven percent year over year. Number two and
we can't understand this one having it is still that
frozen carbonated juices and drinks. What are those? What are frozen?
Excuse me, non carbonate, frozen nonc I guess orange juice, right.

Speaker 4 (01:21:33):
Because there's such low volume. If they want to keep
producing them, they're gonna have to raise the prices on them.

Speaker 1 (01:21:38):
And the other obvious one is a mortar vehicle insurance
because they can, I mean insurance companies as a license
to print money. And we saw that in California. We
saw it in Florida.

Speaker 2 (01:21:49):
Yeah, we saw a bid off of VRT this week.
VRT is the Veriative Holdings that was one of the
best performers of twenty twenty four but continues to have
a good week. I believe it was up about five
point thirty nine for the week. VRT is going to
be the cooling for the semiconductors the new Blackwell chip
that a NIW video comes out with, and seemingly any

(01:22:10):
new chip that rivals the Blackwell chip will need significant
cooling technology that is not currently available with the standard
cooling systems that we have in place today, with like
just standard AC or really big AC units, you actually
need like liquid cooling that runs through the chip and
makes the chip cool way quicker. And that's what Variative
Holding specializes in. It came down from its hive around

(01:22:32):
one forty all the way down to like the low
one ten area, but bounce back to one thirty six.
I think that's a really interesting space volatile name though
very well.

Speaker 1 (01:22:42):
You know what I've discovered with that name. Having watched
that name over the last three months. It moves with
end Video. I mean that if in video is having
a bad day, VRT is gonna have a bad day.
So if you already have end video, you probably wouldn't
want to add VRT because they do tend to move together.
If you if you don't have Nvidia and wanted something

(01:23:03):
volatile in that space at the VRT.

Speaker 2 (01:23:05):
And we'll wrap up this segment. I mean, obviously we're
talking a lot of smack about Intel, but it did
have a good Friday, up about nine percent in rego
training and another one percent and after market, so had
a little bit of a bounce h Friday. But it's
still trying with that just swank in tech or was
there some spaced.

Speaker 4 (01:23:20):
Off of speculation that they're going to get bought out?

Speaker 2 (01:23:22):
Still they're Intel for sale? Question Mark?

Speaker 1 (01:23:27):
We'll see kil well, I mean we we we saw
that a couple months ago. The Qualcomm Yeah yeah, was
qualcomb stock ran up into the twenty two to twenty
three area, right and then drop back to nineteen. What's
did that now? On Friday? Nyven, I don't look at.

Speaker 2 (01:23:41):
It, uh Intel, Yeah, twenty two, twenty two, twenty Okay,
So it's kind of back to where it was when
Qualcomb was going to buy him before Qualcomb said we're
not going to buy him, right.

Speaker 1 (01:23:50):
That's interesting.

Speaker 2 (01:23:51):
I think another interesting space for twenty twenty five is
to see if RFK, if he does get in, what
he's able to do for the pharmaceutical for veterans. I
think veterans have pts D that they found it can
be relieved through some of these farmers. I guess what's
the technical word for those psychedelic drugs and how that helps,
like ketamine or or even the md m A. So

(01:24:13):
that's going to be interesting that there's some psychedelic stocks
that don't really make a lot of money because they're
waiting for FDA approval, But if they are able to
get that approval, that space will go crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:24:23):
I Kennedy is confirmed. That could be one of the
one of the more entertaining things to watch over the
twenty twenty five Yeah, just him in general.

Speaker 2 (01:24:32):
We're already banning these red dyes and things left and right, so.

Speaker 1 (01:24:35):
I guess, And we'll be back right after this break.
Thanks again for joining it.

Speaker 5 (01:24:40):
You're like the child with a smile on Mary.

Speaker 1 (01:24:49):
Welcome back. This is the final segment of The Money
Matters Show on this weekend, we've got to Sebastian Borcinia
deal in Greenberg Todd click Junior Dave Sherwood. Dean is
enjoying the three day MLK weekend, and we'll look forward
to a busy day tomorrow with the MLK, with the inauguration,
uh and with the National Championship Football game. Be fine.

(01:25:13):
You know, we talked about different things that that Trump
is going to do. We've we've spent a lot of
time on the show here pooh pooing Trump Media, a
company that has a little in the way of revenue
and nothing in the way of earnings, and yet it
shot up to fifty sixty dollars a share. It became
a proxy for his chances of being elected, and it

(01:25:36):
it's kind of after the election. It didn't respond because
you kind of the election's over, so I don't really
need a proxy to predict the election. But believe it
or not, that's one of those stocks that's been rallying
over the last couple of weeks in anticipation of his inauguration.

Speaker 4 (01:25:54):
In the inaugurational Monday, Yeah, got.

Speaker 1 (01:25:56):
Thrown thirty four dollars on the election and kind of
flatlined there, didn't really do you much, and then it
ran up to forty two last week. I think you
finished Friday thirty ninety.

Speaker 3 (01:26:06):
Change stock that still doesn't make money nothing, and it's
just yeah, he said, it's just following the Trump election,
the Trump inauguration. It's not something really the greatest investment no,
I mean no, the idea of it. I mean, it
doesn't make money when you're looking at it from an
investment standpoint, it doesn't make any money.

Speaker 4 (01:26:23):
What do we find? That intrinsic value was like two dollars.

Speaker 1 (01:26:25):
Or something like that, something around two two dollars.

Speaker 4 (01:26:27):
Do you remember value? Do you remember our first solar trade?

Speaker 1 (01:26:30):
H oh? First?

Speaker 4 (01:26:32):
So sure yeaheah. So this analyst came out and there
were they said, for Solar is one of the few
established blue chips in sector that has the best risk
reward profile specific to policy. This is after the stock's
been up one hundred Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:26:49):
Yeah, now I saw that where he said it was
the best blue chip in that space?

Speaker 2 (01:26:53):
Right, But also, how is Trump good for Solar?

Speaker 1 (01:26:58):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:26:58):
What?

Speaker 1 (01:27:00):
How Trump good for soldiers?

Speaker 2 (01:27:01):
They said that first solder is going to benefit off
the risk reward of policy. Is it set up for
the best.

Speaker 4 (01:27:08):
Best risk risk reward profile specific to policy, I would
think just because it's vertically integrated and they don't outsource.

Speaker 2 (01:27:15):
Right, Yeah, but Trump made Trump's not going to increase
solar investments.

Speaker 4 (01:27:20):
But he's gonna put He's gonna put tariffs on China.

Speaker 2 (01:27:23):
You know how big the tariffs already are on sold
They're like, they're not going to increase that. It's already
big enough.

Speaker 1 (01:27:30):
The US that the the on again off again sale
of US steel appears to be on again. Uh, Cleveland
Cliffs is going to purchase all of US steel for cash.

Speaker 2 (01:27:40):
They really don't want that company to get bought out
for some reason.

Speaker 3 (01:27:43):
They don't like Japan.

Speaker 1 (01:27:45):
They didn't like Japan buying. Yeah, they didn't want it
to be in foreign hands. It's too important to be
in foreign hands.

Speaker 2 (01:27:50):
So they can they can own our debt, but they
can't own us steal.

Speaker 1 (01:27:54):
Yes, yes, that's exactly right for the listeners. Japan lend
US money, but don't start buying our stuff, right.

Speaker 2 (01:28:00):
Japan owns the most US set than any other country
in the world.

Speaker 1 (01:28:04):
Yes, they do. Yeah, and it's like eight percent, not
a big number.

Speaker 2 (01:28:08):
No, I mean, and we own Japan, so it doesn't
really matter.

Speaker 1 (01:28:12):
It doesn't matter anyway. They're gonna uh the Cleveland Clips
would buy all the US steels for cash and sell
off the Big River Steal subsidiary to new Core. Keep
you a steal in Pittsburgh, which is kind of what
they were all talking about, keeping it in Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (01:28:30):
Costco. How's it gonna do? It's price for absolute perfection?
That it hit another all time high? No, no, okay,
it's it's it still has backed off. And it was
one thousand right.

Speaker 1 (01:28:40):
To a thousand seven or so.

Speaker 2 (01:28:43):
Yeah, back up to nine forty three.

Speaker 1 (01:28:45):
Yeah, and that was all on Friday. There was a
big jump on Friday. I didn't see it. Must have
been they must have released Friday. Yeah, a big jump
on Friday. It's hard to.

Speaker 2 (01:28:57):
Imagine how hard to buy that stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:28:59):
It is hard to buy that stock. And it's always
hard to buy the best stocks, isn't it. I mean,
it really has always been hard to buy the best stock.

Speaker 2 (01:29:06):
It's just not something. It's not a technology company, so
it's hard to warrant those type of growth rates.

Speaker 1 (01:29:11):
It's also hard to as someone who handles other people's money.
It's hard to justify, right, if someone were to ask you,
why did you buy Costco, It's hard to answer that question.

Speaker 2 (01:29:24):
Yeah, you're not going to say because it was undervalued.
You say, well, it was a good company. I thought
it was going to keep performing.

Speaker 1 (01:29:29):
Yeah, they're great, and I shot there and it's they're.

Speaker 3 (01:29:31):
Never going to stot dogs dollar fifty.

Speaker 1 (01:29:36):
Hot Dogs dollar fifty, hot Dogs dollar fifty. You know,
dupontsman getting a bid lately. But on Friday or Thursday,
they said they were going to split into three different companies,
which makes a boring stock a little bit more exciting.
But on Friday they said they're no longer going to
spin off their water division, but instead accelerate their electronic

(01:29:56):
business spin off. And that was disappointing. Stocks ten percent
down in the last ninety days because of that.

Speaker 2 (01:30:02):
That.

Speaker 4 (01:30:02):
I'm sorry, dupunt.

Speaker 2 (01:30:04):
I talk about currency sometimes for those that travel abroad,
especially to the European nations. The euro is actually back
in relation to the dollar to the lows that we
haven't seen since October twenty twenty two. That's back in
the twenty twenty two to the late half of twenty two.
We actually see parity actually below parody, Yes, for the
US dollars to the euro. Right now, the euro is

(01:30:25):
still one to one point oh two to the dollar,
so it's still not quite a parody, but it's right there.
It's come all the way back, and that has a
host of things. Well, it influences a host of things
when currency fluctuates like that.

Speaker 1 (01:30:39):
Well, it's a negative for multinational companies, right, it's a
negative as strong dollar as a negative for multinational companies.
And as often as you're going to hear a president,
you'll never hear a president say I want a weeker dollar,
but every president wants a weaker dollar.

Speaker 2 (01:30:53):
Right, And I think that's also why we saw international
stocks not get the same type of performance in twenty four,
because what do we see in twenty four? Stronger dollar?

Speaker 1 (01:31:00):
Sure, and we've we've seen underperformance in Europe for how
long now three years? So it's just when people talk
about the dollar, O, nobody wants a dollar anymore. Yeah,
And it's look at the chart, Yeah, look at the chart.

Speaker 2 (01:31:14):
It was interesting too of twenty four And you've talked
about it multiple times as even though the dollar did increase,
gold also increased. Yes, so that was normally a negative
correlation award. It was positive that backwards.

Speaker 1 (01:31:25):
I don't get it. Speaking of a pandemic, how about Moderna?
Have you seen that socco lately?

Speaker 4 (01:31:31):
I saw I gotta crush this week round sixty.

Speaker 1 (01:31:32):
Percent of its value gone as the COVID pandemic has waiting.
They dropped another twenty percent last Monday, to the lowest
level since before the pandemic began, as they cut their
twenty twenty five sales forecast. And you have to wonder
is there life after COVID, because there wasn't a lot
of a life before COVID for Moderna, And they kind

(01:31:53):
of rode that horse all the way to the barn
and and did really, really well. At least Fizer has
other things that they're doing besides COVID, packed lovid. When
I hear COVID, I say packed lob. They're very clever
ad campaign. We're kind of rhymes. The last thing I'm
gonna do is go to get packed lovid. Now, there

(01:32:15):
are probably not people out there that have good have
had good luck with it and kept kept it shorter, right,
kept the COVID. I don't spend a lot of time
worrying about COVID. I don't think anybody else does either,
which is why more DIRNA is down sixty percent. Although
I was at a homeowners meeting last night and there
were two people with mask on now they both had
Kamalahara signs in their front yard during the election, so

(01:32:37):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (01:32:38):
It's a It's a great time to readdo your risk
tolerance questionnaire. We had all the time well close to
all time highs. A lot of things are going to
change after we get the Monday speech and we have
a better runway. Give us a call, send us an email.
All we really need is an account statement, and we're
able to run it through our risk risk alized software.
See how risky yourfolio portfolio is, how it would perform

(01:33:00):
against different back test scenarios of what we've see in history,
and give you good peace of mind. Obviously, the financial
plans a different type of peace of mind for just
your actual like daily cash flow things. But if you
have a concern about how risky your portfolio is, or
potentially if you want to make it more risky but
want to understand the risks that would come along with that,
just give us call five two zero fifle four four

(01:33:21):
nine zero nine.

Speaker 3 (01:33:22):
It's a good time to do the financial plan too,
if you've never done one, to start of the new year,
if you're looking to retire towards the end of this
year or beginning next year, it's a good time to
start talking about it and getting an idea so you're
not feeling rushed in the fourth quarter of this year.

Speaker 1 (01:33:36):
And the financial plans, like Todd said earlier, the one
he was working on today was on Friday. I'm sorry,
was so complex and there were so many moving parts,
and there was so much that you could do for
these people by thinking outside the box. And you and
Dylan Sebastian all do that. You all think outside the
box when you're looking at a client's financial plan. It

(01:33:58):
isn't just a cookie cut thing where you come in
and fill out a couple of blanks and we push
enter and it spits out this financial plan for you.
It is absolutely customized. And I have seen friends of mine,
clients of ours, and of course people have never even met,
come in and just walk out so relieved. I remember

(01:34:21):
there was a young man from my church who is
a police officer, and he and his wife came in
and went through the financial plan with you guys, and
he said, I didn't know what I was going to
run into here, but I know you and I trust you,
and I felt like I would be in good hands here.
He said, I'm blown away by what we learned today,

(01:34:44):
the types of things we talked about, the types of
options I have. As I'm getting near retirement here and
my wife and I are getting in your retirement, we
had no idea where we stood, and after going through
the financial plan, they were blown away. Didn't expect anywhere
near the level of comfort that they got from doing

(01:35:05):
that financial plan. So the guys, do them if you again,
if you haven't done them. I don't know what the
schedule looks like, Sebastian. I know that during the holidays
there was some downtime and we were able to slide
some people in, and then right after the holidays it
got super busy. And I don't know if it's looking
in the next week or two. But what kind of
time do you need a week notice? Two weeks notice?

(01:35:26):
Where where you guys out on that about a week notice,
about a week all about a week in advance and
get an apployment set up and and come in and
get a free financial plan that literally could change your life.
If nothing else, it's going to give you a peace
of mind that you really are not going to be
able to achieve anywhere else. I mean, you and your
wife can sit down and go, gosh, it seems like

(01:35:47):
we have enough money. And this is the interest we're getting,
and this is the income we're getting from Social Security,
and here are expenses. I think we're I think we're
going to be okay.

Speaker 4 (01:35:56):
Giving you one snapshot and being able to visualize.

Speaker 1 (01:35:58):
It and you're gonna have some a third party tell you, yes,
you are okay, and here is specifically why you're okay. Anyway,
we appreciate you taking time out of your cold Sunday morning,
and I'm ready for this cold weather to go away
and bring on the heat. Baby, them sons move in
Norsa won't be long. We appreciate your listening. We want

(01:36:20):
to be happy. We all want to be healthy, because again,
if we're not healthy, we're probably not happy. But at
the end of the day at Greenberg, financially we're trying
to be profitable. See you next week.

Speaker 5 (01:36:29):
You're like the child with a smile on a marry
Goo

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