Money Matters: Tariffs, Market Turmoil & Smart Financial Strategies

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning, everybody.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is that time once again, Sunday morning, eight o'clock.
Right here, seven ninety. We're gonna bring you the money
bat the Show with Dean Greenberg. We're gonna talk about
the things you need to know. I know that fear
is kind of coming in a little bit, and this
is what we were looking for.

Speaker 1 (00:17):
Might get a little worse.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
I think we could have a little bounce the next
time down when we kind of.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Look for an opportunity.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Yeah, probably another maybe five percent lower from here, I
will be telling you to step up and buy. So
I think there's a bounce that I think a retracement again,
and then's sometime end of March, maybe even into April,
we'll see a bottom and then I think we can
rally pretty good for the rest of that quarter. Why

(00:48):
taris taris tariss. Everybody's worried about tariffs, that's all you hear.
Markets are getting worried about tariff. Well, it's not really
so much to tarifs that are creating the havoc. And
I'm gonna tell you that the little bit. But I
got to tell you the markets have the climb pretty hard.

(01:09):
We're down three percent for the week, in the SMP,
three and a half in the NAVSAK, four percent in
the wrestle, two and a half percent in the Dow,
and two percent in the equal weighted S and P
five hundred. There's risk in the market right now. Okay,
there's a little bit risk in the market. We haven't
been down for the year in a while, but we

(01:30):
are right now. The S Andp's down two, Nasack's down
almost six, Wrestle's down almost seven, equal Weighted S Andp's
down almost one, and it down's down to half a percent.
There are things that are going on that scare people.
It's fear and greed. If you go back and listen
a couple of shows ago, or you've been listening for

(01:53):
the last I don't know, five or six shows, I've
told you volatility is kicking in. Volatility will be here
as we get through these first one hundred days of
President Trump talking about the changes he's making and the
terrorists and being tough, we're going to talk a little
bit about that. Also, change doesn't come along without what

(02:15):
we need to do, without having a little bit of problems,
and there's always some type of risks and with that,
you know, the money Matter show is sponsored by Greenberg
Financial Group. Greenberg Financial Group is now a registered investment
advisory and his fee only business. We no longer have

(02:36):
a broken dealer and that's why they disclaim is a
little different. We are no longer members of NASTACH and FINRA,
are no longer members of CIPIK. However, we are members
of the of the SEC. They are our regulators. Same
thing as before. Nothing changes. The only thing that changes

(02:57):
is how we look at the markets. Everything has risk.
We keep telling you that. That's why we like to
mitigate risk, which is what we've been doing. We talk
about different products, we talk about different ideas, different strategies,
Everything involved as some type of risk. Please understand those
risks probably do investing. As these markets fall. The fear grows,
even when we expect it. The fear grows. Even when

(03:19):
we have cash on the sidelines.

Speaker 1 (03:20):
The fear grows.

Speaker 2 (03:21):
But the mentality we have right now is okay, when
are we going to start putting money to work. When
are we going to go ahead and come out of
our hedging. When are we going to go ahead and
take off those inverse funds. When are we going to
go ahead and step up to the plate you're a
little bit more risk conscious, you could do that already

(03:44):
just a little bit of the time. There are some
good opportunities out there, but I believe we still have
more to go until we hit the bottom.

Speaker 1 (03:50):
And that's because of the word tariffs.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
Everybody's so afraid of tariffs because they think it's going
to increase inflation.

Speaker 1 (03:59):
I got a different take on it. It might increase.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
And raise prices in the early stages as the supply
chain gets funneled through, but don't think for one second
businesses aren't preparing themselves to figure out what they can
do not to have the terriffts and tax for the
extra cost on people. And also when you hear twenty

(04:24):
five and fifty percent on the terraff, you're not gonna
see prices increase twenty five or fifty percent. It is
done on the wholesale level, and that is no way
ever passed on totally to the end user. There will
be some maybe five percent, maybe ten percent in some cases,

(04:49):
but it's gonna be temporary. I'm gonna tell you why.
For two years, we listened to the Biden administration talk
about trying to get down interest, trying to get down inflation.
The Federal Reserve kept saying, we got to get inflation
coming down. Never got to the mark that they wanted
of two percent, but they still went ahead and insisted in.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
Cutting interest rates.

Speaker 2 (05:14):
But the problem was the Biden administration and most of
the other administrations were all about spending money, give away money,
spend money.

Speaker 1 (05:29):
Yes they did.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
When they said, oh, we cut the budget, they cut
the budget increases. They never cut the budget, so we
continually have more debt and more debt, more debt.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
So by them cutting the increase.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
In the spending, that did not stop the spending, and
then we kept giving money away around the world, and
we've always said we can't handle this debt. So now
we get to the situation that the Federal Reserve tried
to stop inflation by raising interest rates, but they never

(06:07):
raised it enough to slow down the economy or to
go ahead and increase decreased jobs by increasing unemployment. They
tried to increase unemployment, but the job market was too tough.

(06:31):
They tried bringing down inflation, but the economy was too strong.
What is happening now is with tariffs only. Not only
are we seeing the markets go down, we see in
the ten year bond go from ten to seven all

(06:51):
the way down to ten to ten seven, four to seven,
down to four to two, and I think eventually going
to see it back under four.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
Why is that important. That's what interest.

Speaker 2 (07:04):
Rates that we need that we care about are based
off of. That's what mortgage rates are based off of.
That's what car loans are based off of. That's important
if that interest rates come down because before they went higher,
didn't believe that defense should be raising low and interest rates.

(07:28):
In the face of a strong economy, we see this
full off, we will have higher unemployment. Why because there's
so many government employees being let go or wanting to resign.
We are cutting the extra fat out of the government.
We're making the government smaller. That's going to increase unemployment.

(07:52):
That's going to give us slow down with the tariffs
to our economy. Temporarily, we might even have a recession.

Speaker 1 (08:03):
Maybe we won't. But do you remember even when we.

Speaker 2 (08:06):
Had the recession with Biden and which is defined by
two quarters consistently having negative GDP at all, it didn't happen.
No one ever would say, oh, it was a recession.
It doesn't matter. We will still move forward. But well,
it will do is bring down inflation because supply will

(08:29):
increase and interest rates will drop, which will spur on
the economy. So my take is the tariffs are gonna
actually do what the Federal Reserve was trying to do
before and slow down the economy so we can get
inflation down so we can lower interest rates. That's what

(08:50):
I believe tariffs.

Speaker 3 (08:51):
Are gonna go.

Speaker 2 (08:52):
Is it gonna cost more on the short run, yes,
But now think about this. If things go up in price,
people can't afford it, They're gonna look for something else.

Speaker 1 (09:07):
I'm gonna make it simple.

Speaker 2 (09:10):
If the price of steak goes up and people can't
afford the stake that were buying it today and yesterday,
they won't buy steak. They will buy hamburger. What will
happen to the supply of steak. It will increase the
supply of steak and the demand will come down, which

(09:31):
means the prices will come down in order to get
rid of the steak. So, now, if this price of
steak comes down to the same price as hamburger, people
are gonna say, why do I want to eat hamburger
for the same price I can buy steak.

Speaker 1 (09:48):
They're going to buy steak.

Speaker 2 (09:52):
It's pretty clear to me, and I might be wrong,
but you know what, most of these economists that you listen.

Speaker 1 (09:57):
Are always wrong.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
But I've been so far talking about the volatility in
the market. I've been writing so far talking about how
interest rates are. Trying to cut interest rates when the
economy was so strong was a mistake. I was also
right about you can't keep having government spending and think
that we're going to go ahead and see inflation come down.

Speaker 4 (10:19):
Just not.

Speaker 1 (10:21):
So now we have the opposite. Yes, I agree. People
are complaining.

Speaker 2 (10:28):
They don't like Elon Musk doing what he's doing. They
don't like Trump doing what he's doing. But that's the minority.
But they're a big mouse right now. They're the ones
trying to do everything that you see in your laugh
at for the most part, forty days into office, and
all they could say is, oh, I haven't seen eight
prices down.

Speaker 1 (10:47):
I haven't seen this down. You know what. That's what
really upsets me is they don't give anyone a chance
to do what they're doing.

Speaker 2 (10:55):
We gave Biden a chance and always everything kept going high,
and everything kept going higher.

Speaker 1 (11:01):
They blamed it on Drump or the pandemic.

Speaker 2 (11:05):
But he had four years to try to do something,
didn't do it, and the Federal Reserve for some reason,
felt they had a lower interest rates, which was the
wrong thing to do. So we start going ahead and
increasing unemployment. You see tech companies have laid off people.
You've seen you've seen real estate, plant companies, mortgage companies

(11:27):
laying off people. Now you're seeing the government jobs decreasing.
And that's what we're trying to do. People will have
to adapt. You've also seen commitments from other from companies
from other countries saying I will build in America. Well,
if you build in America, you don't get tariffed.

Speaker 1 (11:52):
Think about that.

Speaker 2 (11:54):
So this twenty five percent tariff, so you want to
save twenty five percent building in America. Honda's started a
new plant Taiwan. Semi committed one hundred million dollars up
and there up in Phoenix, they've been building a plant.
Many of these companies are coming. I've heard Porsche wants
to go ahead and start manufacturing cars in America. That's

(12:17):
where Ford and GM and all will get there, where
they get their competition from. You have to realize, and
this is what does it Most people don't realize, Oh,
it's global. We're trying to be a bully. We're trying
to force people to do what we're doing. I'm going
to put it to you bluntly. We've needed a president
to step up a whole entire administration for the last

(12:42):
fifteen years, maybe twenty years, twenty years, to go ahead
and say I need to make changes to our government
because we will go broke if we continually keep pushing
Social Security down the road, making little changes, because eventually
we're not going to have people that are young enough

(13:05):
to pay for the people that are living longer social Security.
You know, people laugh when someone said that Social Security
was the biggest scam we've ever seen.

Speaker 1 (13:18):
Well, if you think about it.

Speaker 2 (13:20):
It's your money and your employer's money that goes into
a fund. That fund then goes out and pays people
that come over sixty five or so, maybe later now,
maybe some people take it earlier, but sixty two plus right,
and there's no money in there because our Congress uses

(13:40):
that money for other things, which is ridiculous and should
never have been allowed. That would be a reserve for
us when we needed money. Think about the trillions of
dollars that would be sitting in the Social Security fund
if no one borrowed against it. Just grow, just growing.

(14:03):
But think about this, why is it like a Ponzi scheme?
Because the people in their twenties and their thirties and
even their forties are paying into social Security to pay
for the people that are sixty two, sixty five, seventy
years plus, thinking that they might not ever get social
Security when they get there. That is a socialistm system.

(14:27):
I've always said I can't wait to someone will tackle
the government so we can tackle social security. Clinton wanted
to fix social security in the nineties when he balanced
the budget, but the Republicans.

Speaker 1 (14:42):
Were against it.

Speaker 2 (14:43):
Bush came in and said we need to fix social security.
Then the Democrats were against it. Sound familiar. This has
been going on for ages. So what we need to
do is get to the point that we no longer
need security as such. But people are putting their money
and the employer's money into a retirement account that cannot

(15:07):
be used until they're in their sixties. And obviously you
can't buy stocks. You can't buy so maybe you just
buy government bonds and we keep interest rates down. You
can buy five year, ten year twenty year thirty year bonds.

Speaker 1 (15:21):
We go ahead and.

Speaker 2 (15:22):
We are now buying our own bonds, keeping rates down,
keeping the country going. Maybe as you're younger, twenty thirty
or forty, you can get up to forty percent into
indexes that would.

Speaker 1 (15:37):
Keep the markets going.

Speaker 2 (15:40):
There's reasons that we can do things that will help
not just our economy but people's retirement to make us
a rich country. The biggest thing you hear in today's
world is that there's such a diverse diversion between billionaires.
They always use billionaires. It's not that many billions as

(16:00):
we know, maybe a thousand for maybe give it take
one hundred to two, but millionaires versus the lower income people.
You want to make the lower income people richer. We
need to give them opportunities to make more money by
giving them education and the ability to put their own
money away so that when they get to the point

(16:23):
that they need that money, they are no looking looking
at living off two thousand dollars a month. And then
we have to subsidize with food and subsidize with everything else.
It's not a very difficult formula, but we have to
start someplace. It's just like, oh, you hear well, you
know the whole thing with the border, which everybody wanted

(16:44):
to both sides wanted to stop that. They just didn't
do it. But what are they saying, Oh, we can't
do it this way. We need a comprehensive plan for immigrants,
an immigration policy.

Speaker 1 (16:58):
I agree, but it's Congress. Why do you keep talking?

Speaker 2 (17:02):
Put it down and do something, and don't tell me
that lame thing that you put out there a year ago.
And and Trump said no to it, you know, when
he wasn't even involved other than trying to get his
people to look at it and say, no, that's not good.

Speaker 1 (17:16):
There's a problem.

Speaker 2 (17:19):
There's a problem when all you see is the left
going in unison and saying no to everything. And it
couldn't be worse than you saw on the other night
when they sat on their hands for everything that happened
in that chamber during SPA. Trump's speech couldn't even stand
for anything, which tells you they don't even know what

(17:41):
they stand for because they won't tell us. Yes, there's
a few of them that will. Somebody needs to step
up on the left and say, listen, we know you
guys are basically in charge, but these are the items
we need for the border. These are the items we
need for deportation, These are what we would like, and

(18:02):
start with conversation. Here's my policy of economics. I don't
agree with that your tariffing, but yes you do, because
when Biden.

Speaker 1 (18:12):
Was in, he didn't get rid of them. Here's my
plan for getting rid of inflation.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
We've never seen a plan by the last administration on
how he was going to increase the.

Speaker 1 (18:22):
Supply or get down the inflation. Not once.

Speaker 2 (18:28):
So what happens is Trump comes in, he gets Elion Musk,
he gets other people, he gets a great cabinet, and
all they want to do is complain day in and
day out about you can't do this, you can't do that,
you can't do something. If you wait around the way
they want it, Well, they should go ahead and investigate
and put a plan together and then bring it to Congress,

(18:49):
and then maybe a year and a half or so
we could start thinking about implementing hogwash. That will never happen.
You will never get it done. People don't like doers,
understand that, because doers get things done regardless of what
the other people think, because they have an idea, they
have a plan, and when it's not working, they change it.

(19:13):
Changing plans if they're not working is important. You saw
and heard Trump the other day say, hey, I want
to cut the I want to cut the government. We
need to reduce jarge, but I want to keep the
good ones. So the people in charge of each department
tell me, who keep the good ones.

Speaker 1 (19:32):
And get rid of the others. If you don't, then
we will. That's how it's going to work. And I'm
okay with that.

Speaker 2 (19:40):
Because even the Democrats say, oh, I'm okay with us
cutting the spending and getting rid of the.

Speaker 1 (19:46):
Fat and the fraud. I'm okay with that.

Speaker 2 (19:48):
And then they go onto this whole thing about medicaid
and how medicaid is definitely full of fraud of fifty
to one hundred billion a year, but they never did
anything about it. They still we don't have a plan
to get rid of it, how to fix it. We
have people in there that are trying to fix it.
And that's what you should be applauding. And that's why

(20:09):
at the end of the day, our economy is going
to do well. We're going to have some suffering right now.
The rates are going to come down, inflation is going
to come down, and the tariffs at the end of
the day is going to be what starts us with
a great economy again, because they're either going to get
on board or we're going to start manufacturing here period.

Speaker 3 (20:30):
Okay.

Speaker 1 (20:32):
The other thing that's really upsetting me is this whole thing.

Speaker 2 (20:38):
How they looked at what happened in the White House
the other day and they take it and they just think, oh,
the world is against us. The world, Yes, the world
is against us because we're doing something. These leaders around
the world were taking advantage of us, and they figure
they all get together, they can do it. Hey, listen,
if you want peace, which I think I want and

(21:00):
other people want, I want peace. I've always said that
it doesn't matter who started this war because if you
really want to get down to it, its just didn't start.

Speaker 1 (21:11):
Now.

Speaker 2 (21:11):
They've had two other skirmishes before. Yes, Russia is the aggressor,
but this war goes back to how long, hundreds of years, centuries,
wars for centuries.

Speaker 1 (21:23):
Have been going on and you don't know why, what
is the real reason? Okay, power this that?

Speaker 2 (21:34):
Okay, well, fine, well, if we're going to come in
and solve it, because we are the only ones that
can get in the middle of this, then don't give
me a hard time about just saying I don't care
who started it, don't I just care about peace right now.
And how you're going to get peace is by going
ahead and finding out what both sides want and keep
negotiating till you get a scenario that they agree with.

(21:57):
So what happens is the people around the world. So
I'm saying I'm with Ukraine, like we're not with Ukraine.
My tax dollars go to Ukraine to help benefit them.

Speaker 1 (22:10):
But no one's asked a question.

Speaker 2 (22:12):
Why have people been saying it's three hundred and fifty
billion and other people now are saying it's one hundred
and eighty billion. Did they get three fifty Where is
the other one hundred and seventy billion dollars? Nobody asked
that question, where is it? No one don't tell me
people exaggerating that much because they're not. There's money that's
out there going someplace as we know that shouldn't be

(22:35):
going places. Zelensky says, I only got that much. Biden
was saying they got three hundred and fifty that's how
much time, and they were saying they were getting how
much money was it. Where did it go at the
end of the day. Don't tell me this is not
a transaction. You tell me another country in this world
that taxes their their citizens, taxes their citizens and then

(22:59):
cuts us a check and says, hey, thank you, here's
a check. We pay taxes and then we cut checks
to in the trillions of dollars around the world.

Speaker 1 (23:12):
Are you kidding?

Speaker 2 (23:14):
And we don't want to know where it's going on,
what it's doing. I've always said we pay too much
taxes when we have to pay so many people. But
this is what really upsets me. All these people that
are in an outrage about I'm with Ukraine are the
same people that are with Palestine and against Israel. And

(23:38):
how could that be because Israel was attacked. Okay, Israel
was attacked just like Ukraine was.

Speaker 1 (23:47):
But we want to.

Speaker 2 (23:48):
Give enough money to Ukraine to squash Russia. But we're
upset because Israel is able to do it with our help,
and they are doing it. If we get so much
to Russia with Europe and everybody else to squatch Russia
would be in World War three. You think that Putin
and Russia would let themselves go down without using warfare,

(24:10):
That we don't even want to talk about it would happen.
So at the end of the day, let's get to solve.
Let's get peace there, peace in the Middle East, and
let's start getting these tarifs on.

Speaker 1 (24:20):
Let's get an.

Speaker 2 (24:20):
Equal play and field for everybody, and let's start rocket
and rolling with our economy.

Speaker 1 (24:25):
We'll be right back. Appreciate you all listening.

Speaker 3 (24:27):
Welcome back. This is the Money Matter Show. I'm Dave Shure,
what I'm here with, Dylan Greenberg, Todd Goolick said, Bashian
Borstini and Dean Greenberg, and we welcome into the Daylight
Savings version of the Money Matter Show. Daylight Saving Times
went on all over the country today.

Speaker 5 (24:43):
Right, it's kind of sad.

Speaker 6 (24:44):
Hopefully can st got it right?

Speaker 3 (24:46):
Yeah, Well, we all get to get up an hour
earlier tomorrow. That's one of the It doesn't impact hardly
anybody in too somebody, It definitely impacts the radio station,
and it definitely impacts us and mail. Back in twenty
years ago, right now, they expanded from six months to
eight months the Ali Saving Time, and a year and

(25:06):
a half of Mexico did away with DLA Saving Time.
So who knows when are we gonna do that. Who
knows anyway, it's I used to like it because they
put me on the same time as California. But since
my daughter's moving to two signs, doesn't matter anymore.

Speaker 6 (25:19):
It doesn't matter.

Speaker 3 (25:20):
That's uh.

Speaker 6 (25:21):
What a week in the markets. We had no very
volatile week, up and down every which way. A lot
of uncertainty right there.

Speaker 3 (25:29):
If the Trump tornadoes are causing the uncertainty, and the
market hates uncertainty more than anything. You just don't know
if when you wake up in the morning, are the
tariff's gonna be on, They're gonna be off, They're gonna
be double, they're gonna be you know. It's just it's
a hard environment. And I think that's why you saw
a lot of the quarterly earnings reports over the last
two weeks give guidance that was cautious because they don't

(25:52):
know either. I just don't know. I mean, if there
are no terrorists, that's one thing, and if there's twenty
five thirty percent tarifts, that's a whole other thing.

Speaker 6 (25:59):
And the market, like for a while it wanted a
reason to sell off. It needed a reason to kind
of come back. It's done nothing but go up. It
seems like for the last couple of years, so this reason,
you know, you could say definitely it's the uncertainty. But
we've said for a while the market needed to come back,
and it's not like we saw a crazy correction. It
was three percent on the week.

Speaker 3 (26:20):
Yeah, this is actually healthy. We're about seven percent off
of the high. You get a ten percent pullback almost
every year going back historically, not unusual at all, so
it gives you a little better foundation. I know, it
isn't much fun when the market's going down.

Speaker 4 (26:34):
It is allowing some buy an opportunity though, in stocks
that haven't been able to buy it because it been
so high and not as I'm going. For example, in Vidia,
it's dropped down to one o eight at one point again,
and that hasn't been like that since last August, which
had dropped too for two days. So it's kind of
been in a sense if you're looking, if you've been
looking at buy and it's been hard, it's nice time
to buy.

Speaker 3 (26:53):
Dyln. Anything related to AI got crushed. I mean in
video that makes the chips right of artists, who makes
the cooling device for the ships? Yeah, eaton the company
that provides the power, I mean, anybody that had any
association with AI at all.

Speaker 4 (27:11):
Yeah, but it's also I mean it's a lot of
in a sense, I think it's like a lot of fear,
in the sense you'll take your gains mark stopped, start
dropping like okay, I can get out. Now, I'll take
my games and move on. Like Reddit, for example, God
all the way up two hundred and thirty dollars a
share and like two weeks later it's now back down
to one hundred and thirty dollars a share. So people
are just taking there. It's over bought, it's time to

(27:32):
take profit. And then in those type of companies they
just sell off and to look for other things.

Speaker 3 (27:36):
And speaking of that, how about Tesla, Well, now he's
made a full round trip from the election, it doubled
and now it was given all that back.

Speaker 4 (27:43):
It's been down every week since he took he went
to Washington, yes soon as Washington.

Speaker 3 (27:49):
Yeah, yeah, we were scratching our heads when it had doubled,
because we know that their business isn't booming. We know
that there's an increasing competition, we know that there's a
push back against much Regardless of what you think about him, Uh,
there's half of the country that doesn't like him, and
if they stopped buying his cars, well that's half the

(28:09):
country not buying your car. So we were a little
puzzled as the stock doubled.

Speaker 5 (28:14):
And like Dylan said, every single week since Elon took
or went to Washington and took a role there in Doge,
the stock has gone down. Peaked around four hundred and
eighty dollars on December and eighteenth, and slush eight hundred
billion dollars in market cap since then. You know what
Bank of America did this.

Speaker 3 (28:29):
Week, Dave, I bet you they raised it to a
sell or, to a seal.

Speaker 5 (28:34):
Downgrade the company from hole to sell.

Speaker 3 (28:35):
This week he got fifty saying you better sell.

Speaker 5 (28:39):
After a February that the Tesla stock dropped twenty seven percent.

Speaker 3 (28:42):
Where have you been? No, where have you been? You know?
I think we we all heard a lot this week
about maybe we ought to get out, maybe maybe we
need to go to cash. But I'm hearing somebody saying
he's going to cash. I got to remind you again
that is not the way to go. You don't jump.
It would be wonderful if you could be in cash
when the market's going down and fully invested when it's

(29:04):
going up. But that's not reality.

Speaker 4 (29:06):
Yeah, people have strong opinions on going to cash when
the market's going down, but they have no plan to
get back in, on how to get back in, on
when to get back in. If you ask them, they
don't know. They're just saying I want to get out
now because it makes me sleep at night better.

Speaker 3 (29:17):
And we work really hard when we open a council
with clients to make sure we have the right asset
allocation so that you can ride through these and I
had very few phone calls this week from people who
were concerned.

Speaker 6 (29:32):
Yeah, we can say the same thing. I mean, obviously,
the financial plan is what really helps people sleep at
night because they understand it's not really just about the
money management. It's about the whole plan and as long
as the cash flow is consistent and the way we're
managing the money is how we already discussed. They don't
have the fear that some people do, especially in.

Speaker 3 (29:50):
Volatile environments like this. You could come in Monday morning
Sunday night, Trump said, you know what, I'm going to
pull all the TIFFs off for now and rethink this
whole thing. The market's up fifteen hundred points. I mean,
you just don't know. And I have never once in
forty years of doing this seen someone go to cash
and get back in cheaper, and the reason for that

(30:12):
is obvious. For you to be going to cash, it
means you're scared, and for you to get back in
it means you're comfortable. And for you to be comfortable,
the market has to be much higher than it is
when you got out. And statistics that I that I
thought about over the week during the week and I thought,
I'm going to look it up, make sure I've got
this right. Over the last thirty years, the average ready

(30:36):
to return on the S and P five hundred has
been thirteen percent for the last thirty years, thirteen percent
per year. If you missed the ten best days days
in thirty years, it goes to six and a half. Wow,
from thirteen to six and a half if you missed
the ten best days. So you can't go to cash
because you're going to miss those days and it's going

(30:59):
to skew your performance. When you open an account, you
need to know what level of exposure to the market
you're comfortable with. We know that the larger the exposure
to the market, the better you're going to do over time.
We know that if you can tolerate one hundred percent
invested in the market, you're going to do better than
any other acid allocation over time. But it's volatile and

(31:23):
not a lot of people have that type of risk tolerance.
So if you're a conservative, you might be fifty to
fifty okay, So the market went down seven percent, you've
lost three and a half.

Speaker 4 (31:34):
Well, and that's why we have a portfolio allocation that
we call the SIM model, and that allows us to
buy individual bonds to put away cash for three to
five years if you need. If you're taking cash from
your accounts each month and it's your new pension plan
in a sense, from your retirement account, we put away
cash in the side in bonds so that it can
weather the storm of volatility and you don't have to

(31:54):
worry about it during the year or during the next year.
Because markets are up three out of four years on
average if you look back one hundred years. So if
you have the bonds and the money in safe place
like that for five years, if the markets go down
thirty percent in twenty twenty five, you're not really too
worried if you're know that you're getting income in twenty
twenty six from one of the bond ladders maturing.

Speaker 5 (32:16):
Right, Dylan and I and Todd, we have a clients
that retired to Brown's November and heading into the retirement.
She was super scared, super scared, didn't want to do
it just because she couldn't see herself not receiving an
income anymore.

Speaker 1 (32:30):
Didn't know that.

Speaker 5 (32:31):
She wanted to make sure that her money wasn't going
to out or she wasn't going to outlive her money
right in this market drop. Since she's become a client,
the market's done nothing but Vaul, she's not calling scared
sleepless nights just because she'd understands she did the financial plan.
We got a risk tolerance questionnaire. She understands what she
was getting herself into. And to Dylan's points on the

(32:53):
sim model, we have five years of income.

Speaker 6 (32:55):
Put away for her.

Speaker 3 (32:56):
Yeah, and if you don't know what your risk tolerance is,
are just really don't even know what that means, give
us a call. We can help you with that. We
have tools that help us define what your risk tolerance
is and what a portfolio should look like. For you
with that particulars dole.

Speaker 6 (33:12):
Yeah, we're able to analyze your current risk tolerance against
your current portfolios risk tolerance, see if it matches up.
But the risk tolerance, the scale of one to one
hundred is going to tell us what is your six
month comfort zone, meaning in a six month investment period,
what is the max drop you want to see versus
the max game that you could expect for the risk
of your portfolio. But another thing to mention about this

(33:34):
with risk mitigation, that's something that we specialize here that
most firms don't is we don't take a passive approach.
We're not going to say just wait it out, sit
it and and it's going to be at all time
highs eventually. We don't say that. We actually do take
tactical strategies. One of the things we use is SDS,
which is Sam David Sam and this is a ticker
that will go up two percent when the market goes

(33:55):
down one percent, and so we're able to hedge a
portion of the account for these markets drops. And what
it allows us to do is not have to go
into cash. We can add this protection and if we're right,
what happens is we're able to sell out of it,
and we have all of a sudden cash when you sell,
So then buy at lower markets. If you're wrong, obviously
you suppress some returns, but you at least have that protection.

(34:18):
And that's why we added that protection at market highs,
knowing that this type of seven percent drop was imminent.
It was going to happen at some point. And now
that we have that position to easily buy at lower prices.

Speaker 3 (34:29):
And if you're even giving the remote thought to going
to cash, don't do it. Just don't do it. If
you are uncomfortable, then do a tax to buy some insurance.
Buy some sds. Five percent of SDS covers ten percent
of the s and P five hundred. So if you
want to have ten percent protection, you buy five percent sds.

(34:50):
You want twenty percent, you buy ten percent sds. But
the nice part about that is then you don't if
when the market does reverse, and it always does. When
the market does, you don't have to quickly try to
figure out what you need to buy. You just simply sell.

Speaker 6 (35:04):
It's very similar to the structured protection EAT as we're
talking about. And eventually, when you have one hundred percent
downside protection, it means you can only participate up to
a certain percentage, and so you can mitigate that with
other tools. And that's what we help specialize with. You
don't have to understand all the nix and crannys of
how to trade. Come in here. We can do it

(35:24):
for you. We just got to understand your risk talance
and what you can expect.

Speaker 3 (35:28):
By ten percent of the hedge and your protect twenty
percent of the portfolio. Let's say you get a little
bit more comfortable and to take half of it off,
take half of the insurance off. If you get really
comfortable to take it all off, you haven't destroyed your
entire portfolio. We'll be back. We're coming up on a
break here. We'll be back after this break. Thanks again
for joining this. This is the Money Matter Show.

Speaker 6 (35:47):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Todd Glick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, Sebastian Borsini, and
David Surewood. Well we have this week with the Dow
down two point four percent. The Russell two thousand led
the way down four percent lower, NASDAK Composite was down
three point five and this SMP was down three point
one something. To note, the equal weighted S and P
was only down one point nine in the week. So

(36:08):
again what we saw is the small caps, the technology,
the risk related assets saw the bulk of the drop
throughout the week. Some of those more stable value names
have have done a little bit better over the course
of the year. What we saw with the Dow, I
think is, you know, companies still are performed by I
think Verizon was up seven percent this week, but then

(36:29):
you have like Boeing down and things like that. So
not all value names are created equal, but certain value
names are definitely holding in there much better than the
risk assets as of late.

Speaker 3 (36:38):
And if the overall market it is still up nine
tens to one percent for the year five hundred down
two percent, right, but the equal weighted which includes all
of the stacks is up almost one percent, So the
market is still in good shape. If you had a
balanced portfolio, interest rates to come down a little bit,
bombs have have elevated a bit, So if you've had
a balanced portfolio, you're to you should be up all

(37:00):
up US midget for the year at this point.

Speaker 5 (37:04):
The reason that we look at the RSP is because
of the obscene concentration within the allocations of the SMP
five hundred, Right, you got the magnificent seven that carry
that thing. Essentially, we do a little bit. We do
a report here at Greenberg Financial and we follow the
SMP sectors, SMP sectors, spider funds. So you got an XLK,

(37:25):
which is your tech sector. Right, you could think of Apple,
Microsoft and video XLE, think of Exon Chevron. Reason I
want to bring light to it is because it's important
to know what you're buying these funds, and not only
what is in the funds, but how concentrated each allocation
of the company is within the fund. In February, you
have xl Y consumer discretionary. It dropped seven percent. Why

(37:49):
because you had two big giant companies, Amazon weighted at
twenty percent and Tesla weighted at thirteen percent. Amazon dropped
ten and a half percent that month. Or Amazon dropped
ten and a half percent that month. Tesla dropped nearly
thirty percent, right, So that's why you see such a
huge diversion within these sectors. Consumer Discretionary dropping seven percent.

(38:09):
The next biggest dropper was XLK Technology at two and
a half.

Speaker 3 (38:15):
It fashion does summaries at the end of each month.

Speaker 6 (38:18):
The Dow.

Speaker 3 (38:19):
We don't talk a lot about the Dow because it's
just thirty stocks, but the thirty stocks are supposed to
be representative of the overall economy. And honestly, for having
only thirty stocks, it's pretty close. It's pretty close. I
give them credit. Anything jump out at you in the
Dow during February.

Speaker 5 (38:36):
Again, just Amazon, which was the reason why against the
consumer discretionary discretionary sector dropped so much.

Speaker 3 (38:43):
Other than that, it was a top performing stock for
the year.

Speaker 5 (38:46):
For the year so far, it's still three on still three,
still three nineteen point seven, nearly twenty percent.

Speaker 3 (38:52):
That's just been amazing.

Speaker 5 (38:53):
The worst performer.

Speaker 3 (38:54):
Yeah, in Video and Vida still did still the bottom
of that. And we we're joking said before, when they
add a stock to the Dow, you want to shorten,
it's goin a good down, Isn't that funny? I mean
they had Walgreens, Walgreens got down, the sal Force, dot
com it tang I think they had even in Video.

Speaker 4 (39:13):
Usually when you take one out to the company does
well when you take it out, except for Walgreens. They're
getting bought out to go private. How about that billion dollars?

Speaker 3 (39:20):
How about that we're not gonna have to have them
to kick around anymore in video, Yeah.

Speaker 5 (39:24):
Exactly, and Video joined the Dell right around the same
time that they also joined XLK. Xl K took their
allocation from I want to say, two to three percent
up to like ten or so. Yeah, right, and then
videos to gun nothing but down since then.

Speaker 3 (39:37):
Yeah, it is, it's it's funny. Yeah. The Walgreens, as
long as we were talking about it buying it bought
out at eleven dollars and forty six.

Speaker 7 (39:43):
Yes, I was thinking it might be a cake under
the cake over the Actually Second War has found a
way to on their books where it makes sense to
pay eleven forty six in cash for all of the
shares of Walgreens.

Speaker 5 (39:56):
So when will that stop?

Speaker 3 (39:57):
Trading plows me away as soon as the deal is done.
Probably sick months, gotcha, yeah, price six months. There'll be
arbitrage in the meantime. Arbitrage is the stock is not
going to be eleven forty six, because you know that's
the maximum. What did it close out on Friday Taday?
That something you pull up easily. It's not going to
be eleven forty six unless you think there's some other sevenator.

Speaker 6 (40:19):
Thirty nine, well, eleven thirty six on the post.

Speaker 3 (40:22):
Eleven thirty six. Okay, so you buy it at eleven
thirty six, and you buy a whole bunch of it
hoping that you're going to be taken out at eleven
forty two or eleven forty whatever it is. And that's arbitrage.
That's called arbitrage. The problem with arbitrage is sometimes deals
unexpectedly fall apart, and Walgreens is back at nine and
a half bucks and you're sitting there with one hundreds
of thousand of share. So you've got to be careful

(40:43):
with arbitrage that the deal is solid, that the buyer
has the wherewithal to complete the transaction. You also, the
only time you're going to see a stock trading above
the takeover price is if there's this, if there's a
thought process that there might be another buyer out there.
In other words, let's say somebody thought, I think now

(41:06):
that Sycamore is going to take them private, they're going
to be gone. This is the last chance for Amazon
to jump in.

Speaker 1 (41:12):
And buy them.

Speaker 6 (41:13):
Not that they would obviously.

Speaker 3 (41:14):
But I don't see that with Walgreens, or just hasn't
been that kind of interest in that stock. But you
will see that from time to time where somebody offers
fifty dollars for a stock and it opens at fifty three,
and you're thinking, why would they do that because they
think there are other offers coming that the fifty was
the beginning of a bidding war.

Speaker 6 (41:34):
No, I don't see that.

Speaker 3 (41:35):
With Walgreens. Interest rate on the ten year Treasury twelve
percent lower than it was in October.

Speaker 6 (41:41):
So every year Freddie Mack has gone down to six
point sixty three percent.

Speaker 3 (41:44):
Now, yeah, locally, I had a borrower that locked in
six and a half on a thirty year fixed. I
had another client who wanted to refinance their house to
get some money for travel, and they did a fifteen
year fix at five and three quarters. So interest rates
are coming down. And now what that tells you is

(42:06):
that they're.

Speaker 6 (42:07):
Not down much. So, I mean it's maybe a fifty
basis points. I mean in the tenure we're still four
point four.

Speaker 3 (42:14):
Yeah, yeah, the ten years four point three.

Speaker 6 (42:16):
Four point three. We got to about four point nine
in October.

Speaker 3 (42:20):
Twelve percent below where it was in October.

Speaker 6 (42:22):
They're right right, sixty basis points.

Speaker 3 (42:23):
As what I'm saying, yeah, it's down, and I saw
the two year was below four for the first time
three nine nine.

Speaker 6 (42:29):
I would to be surprised to possibly see rates go
back up.

Speaker 3 (42:35):
You know, the bond market is telling you that the
economy is slowing, and I think there's a lot of
indications that the economy is slowing. I'm not saying dangerously slowing.
I'm not expecting recession anytime in the near future. But
almost all of the corporate reports this week were with
cautious guidance. And again that may have to do with

(42:55):
the tariffts that that if that were to settle down,
might all go away. Next week we get the CPI
on Wednesday, the PPI on Thursday. Again, those are market movers,
both of them.

Speaker 6 (43:08):
Yeah, well big interest rate movers, which in Lewis the market.

Speaker 3 (43:12):
Moves absolutely and we had our worst We had our
worst weeks since September. In China up five percent.

Speaker 6 (43:18):
Yeah, China's doing just fine right now.

Speaker 3 (43:20):
China has been the best performing market since the election.

Speaker 6 (43:23):
I think Europe is number two.

Speaker 3 (43:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (43:25):
Yeah, that builds your dreams companies up like thirty five percent.
You're to date, Ali Baba is just killing it.

Speaker 3 (43:32):
Build your dream being the electric car.

Speaker 6 (43:34):
Collectric car manufacturer, the biggest competitor of Tesla in China,
and they're bigger than Tesla now as well.

Speaker 5 (43:40):
Just because of Mexico, right, I mean selling a ton there.

Speaker 3 (43:42):
They're doing a lot of business.

Speaker 6 (43:43):
They're China compared to Tesla as well.

Speaker 3 (43:46):
Say, you will see those be they're called BYD. It's
building your dream. But there b y D is the
thing simpleness on the vehicle, and you will see those
around two son a little bit. Uh Mexico. They're not
being sold in the United States to my knowledge, but
they are being sold in Mexico and a few of
them come across the border.

Speaker 5 (44:02):
I've only seen the by D cards with snorm license plates.

Speaker 3 (44:05):
Yeah, absolutely, yeah, I've seen I've seen one. I've only
seen one. You've seen one, right, So they're around but
hard to spot. Oil continues to drop down two seventy
five last weekend.

Speaker 6 (44:17):
Down it was almost three bucks. I mean it's sixty
seven dollars a barrel dollars. I don't know there's a
big level here on oil. To me, I'm really I don't.
I don't think it's gonna go below it. Dave, you
think it you think it is, though.

Speaker 3 (44:29):
I think it ultimately could get into the fifties. Ultimately,
does it pop back up a little bit, who knows.
But what I found fascinating about the dropping oil, which
has been down six percent this year, Chevron is up
eight percent. Chevron stock is up eight percent, Xxon is
up two percent. XL E, the the Energy ETF up

(44:51):
two percent.

Speaker 6 (44:52):
Yeah, the CBX, the Chevron is really interesting. It's really
held in there. If you look at a chart of
oil the last two years and then look at the
chart Chevron, you're that's definitely diverged.

Speaker 3 (45:02):
Yeah. I think if you just buy, if you were
wanting one oil stock, I probably buy the XL E,
the ETF, right, But I mean, if you just want
one individual name, it's just Chevron's hard to beat. It
seems like no matter what's going on, they're out performing
Conico and Exon. They are the only oil company in
the Dow. Stock in the Dow, I believe of the
thirty stock in the Dow, I believe Chevron is the

(45:24):
only oil company in there. Gold rebounded. You know, we
talked last week about how finally had a big down
week and rebounded by sixty nine dollars to finish the
week at twenty nine oh five. Oh it was up yep.
Gold jump sixty nine bucks.

Speaker 5 (45:40):
Why do you think oil is going to fifty just
because of the demand slowan.

Speaker 3 (45:44):
Yeah, I think the demand will slow and I think
the supply will increase with some of the policies on
the Trump I could be totally wrong. It's just I've
seen it.

Speaker 6 (45:54):
But if China's going to be doing as good as
the market, their market claims it is.

Speaker 3 (45:59):
If China is actually and we talked two months ago
about green shoots were now seen maybe more than green shoots,
and if China were to re emerge as a growing economy,
then that's going to change that thesis completely. But we've
seen trying to rebound over the past six weeks now,

(46:21):
six or seven weeks, and yet oil prices continue to
move lower.

Speaker 6 (46:26):
So you heard of a TKO group. No, this is
the people who owned WW and USCFC.

Speaker 3 (46:34):
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, you talked about a couple of
weeks ago.

Speaker 6 (46:36):
They're going to join the S and P five hundred
effect of March twenty fourth, and as well as door Dash,
Williams Sonma and a company called Expand Energy.

Speaker 3 (46:45):
Those there are new entries into the S and P
five hundreds. I'm always interested in who they're removing from
the S and P five, and a lot of times
it's because companies have been taken over, like Walgreens, and
they just they're just they're just going to disappear. I mean,
you wouldn't want Walgreens in any index because it's not going.

Speaker 6 (47:01):
To Williams Sonoma owned a whole bunch with Williams.

Speaker 3 (47:03):
Sonomo owns Pottery, Barns and west Alm Yeah, as well
as Williams Sonoma. Yeah, they're doing great, all time highs.
It's crazy and they're just in an environment where you
would not think they would be doing well. They're doing
extremely well. We'll be back with more of the Money
Matter Show after this break. Once again, we thank you
for joining us. If you haven't come in for your

(47:25):
free financial plan, got to do it. Thank you for listening.

Speaker 4 (47:29):
Welcome back to the second hour of The Money Matter Show.
I'm Dylan Greenberg here with Todd Glick, Dave Sherwood, and
Sebastian Borsini. For those of you just tuning in, the
Dow was down two point four percent for the week.
The SMP five hundred was down three point one percent,
the NASDAK was down three and a half percent, the
Russell two thousand was down four percent, and the equal
weighted SMP five hundred was down one point nine percent.

(47:50):
The NASDAK is down five point eight percent for the year,
but that's not even the most. The Russell two thousand,
which is small cap, is down almost seven percent for
the year.

Speaker 6 (47:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (47:59):
I never thought i'd live long enough to see what
I saw during the State of the Union speech.

Speaker 5 (48:04):
That was awesome.

Speaker 3 (48:05):
It was unbelievable. I mean, it actually was entertainment. I
don't normally watch those because there's a lot of promises
that never happened and it's just grand standing essentially. But
I just couldn't believe that holding the signs up like
those children.

Speaker 4 (48:18):
Was the State of the Union, right, it was like
an address to Congress. I didn't know if it was
an official state of Union.

Speaker 3 (48:24):
It was annual State of the Union.

Speaker 4 (48:26):
Yeah, okay, I thought that was the first mask.

Speaker 3 (48:29):
I assumed it was. I don't know. I could be wrong.

Speaker 4 (48:33):
It seems like it's theatrics, like no Democrats stands for
anything the Republicans say, and then Biden's and no Republicans
stands for anything. The Democrats say, but.

Speaker 3 (48:41):
I mean and And there was some shouting out from
the right, like Biden was president shouting out from the
left time like we are we turning into England here,
we're all going.

Speaker 6 (48:50):
To sign and yeah, that's a good point.

Speaker 3 (48:52):
Oh. The British thing is just crazy.

Speaker 4 (48:54):
I don't think a lot of people know that the
British Parliament goes.

Speaker 3 (48:57):
Was just crazy. It's like being at a rock show
or something. It's like being in the mosh pit. They're
yelling and screaming, and that's the craziest thing. Like a
third world country. Unbelievable. So I'm hiking on Sunday last
Sunday afternoon and I pull on my phone just to
kind of look at what the Markt's doing, and I
look at Bitcoin and I go, what in the heck

(49:20):
it happened here? The last time I looked at it
was around eighty three, eighty four thousand, it was ninety two.
And of course what happened is is Trump announced on
Sunday that he was going to form a establish a
crypto reserve, and now a crypto reserve. This is kind
of an important designation. It's crypto reserve. He's also going

(49:42):
to have a crypto stockpile. Okay, so what's the difference
between the two.

Speaker 6 (49:47):
So he's not going to sell it crypto reserve.

Speaker 3 (49:50):
You actually are a periodic buyer the of bitcoin. Crypto
crypto stockpile, you simply are not going to sell. And
you know the United States has like what is one
hundred and eighty five thousand bitcoin?

Speaker 6 (50:03):
Yeah, we get it from FBI seasons.

Speaker 3 (50:05):
We get from serve seats, from all the seizures and things.
It's it's crazy. So are they going to have the
stockpile and the one thing that I guess kind of what.

Speaker 5 (50:15):
I'm sorry, and that just gets odded to US's balance sheet.

Speaker 6 (50:18):
Well, yeah, they don't know how to sell it, right,
So what's going to happen?

Speaker 3 (50:22):
What's going to happen?

Speaker 6 (50:23):
Think about when they get a big yacht. What do
they do with the yacht? Like when they when they
collect it from a tax evasion or something like that.

Speaker 3 (50:30):
I'll bet Trump drives it around. But that's what the
that's what that's what happens.

Speaker 6 (50:34):
So they'll sees like huge jets and they have to
find a buyer and then they put them on auction
houses or something like that. So I've heard that they've
they've auctioned off the bitcoin in the years past, but
now there's a whole market, so it's obviously pretty easy
to liquidate it into cash.

Speaker 3 (50:47):
Yeah, we're officially, as taxpayers going to be speculating in
crypto with money that they don't have. But why not, right,
let's take let's buy I hate it.

Speaker 6 (50:57):
I hate the word crypto though. That's that's my huge
pet pee that Trump did. It should only be bitcoined it.

Speaker 3 (51:05):
Yeah, A, And I think.

Speaker 6 (51:06):
He's making a really big mistake because, as you said,
now you're investing in a lot of unregulated stuff. And
it's already bad enough that you're investing in bitcoin because
of how volatile it is. At least it's regulated as
a commodity. Everything else you're saying investing is not even regulated.
They don't even know if it's a security, they don't
know if it's a commodity. A lot of gray areas there,
and you're putting government people's money into it. If that

(51:29):
all of a sudden gets rug pulled and it's down
forty percent, the whole idea is going to look like
it's terrible the whole project is gonna get shut down. Yeah,
and you're gonna look bad because of it. And so
I really think it was a mistake to add the
other crypto coins in there.

Speaker 3 (51:41):
Last two weeks, we've seen bitcoin go from ninety eight
thousand to seventy eight thousand back to ninety four. I
think it got to on Monday.

Speaker 6 (51:47):
Yeah, it's eighty six.

Speaker 5 (51:49):
Beto's less than one.

Speaker 3 (51:53):
That was so funny when the bitcoin et have had
a beto less than the market, volatility less than the market,
and Todd point it out, that's because the first nine
months it's been in business, Bitcoin has been pretty quiet.

Speaker 5 (52:04):
Pretty stagnant, and at the same time, there's not history.
What's what's it on now? After this week, Dodd.

Speaker 6 (52:10):
Still at one point one?

Speaker 4 (52:11):
Yeah, yeah, at least it's more than the market.

Speaker 3 (52:13):
Now.

Speaker 1 (52:13):
The thing that.

Speaker 3 (52:14):
Comes to my mind, and I've got a buddy that
that I hike with on the weekends, and he has
seven bitcoin He's at an average price of seventeen thousand.
He started buying it when it was like nine thousand,
and he kept buying one here, one there. He's got
seven of them at seventeen thousand. I'm saying why would't
you sell one? Why won't you sell two? Do something?

Speaker 6 (52:33):
It's going to a million?

Speaker 3 (52:34):
He thinks it's going absolutely what he thinks, it's going
much much higher. And where I sit and I look
at I think the everything that could possibly go right
for bitcoin under Trump has happened. Everything. They've gotten bitcoin
friendly people in positions of power, they've created a bitcoin reserve.

(53:00):
What else can possibly can he possibly do?

Speaker 6 (53:04):
It's not what he can do, Dave. We're still in
like the third ending of adoption of this thing. We're
not even close to having actual rails for people that
they're not even close to people using this thing or
anything like that. But you commerce, but if you go
to third world countries, that's when it starts to get
used because it's an on rail ramp to use USD
which is a US DC and USDT, which is the tether,

(53:27):
and the stable coins of the US dollar, being able
to take whatever currents you have turn it into bitcoin.
You can then change that bitcoin into a US stable coin.
So it's an on rail onto a financial network that
most people can't get access to because they don't have
normal bank accounts.

Speaker 4 (53:43):
Right.

Speaker 5 (53:44):
I was just thinking, like it needs to have hit
a point of price stability. I would like to see
myself go to Whole Foods or whatever store and be
able to buy whatever I'm buying in bitcoin.

Speaker 6 (53:55):
You don't have to if you have a stable coin
that I can easily transition into from bitcoin. What why
don't need I want to be a stable You need
to business too to give value.

Speaker 5 (54:05):
That's that's what That's what I'm trying to get.

Speaker 3 (54:06):
It has to be willing to accept it.

Speaker 6 (54:08):
The business keep accepting dollars. All I have to do
is transition my bitcoin. I'm paying. I'm paying dollar bills
with my bitcoin.

Speaker 3 (54:15):
Right now, I'm thinking, I'm thinking as a as someone
who owns no bitcoin. Okay, full disclosure here, I've never
owned a bitcoin that people who own bitcoin and aren't
taking profits now are going to regret it. Yeah, that's
that's my take. I know you're definitely wrong. I know

(54:36):
you difinitely disagree. We'll see, we'll see.

Speaker 6 (54:39):
What's your time frame?

Speaker 5 (54:40):
I was gonna say, it depends on what I think.

Speaker 3 (54:41):
Over well, I don't know over the next six months.
I think by the.

Speaker 6 (54:45):
Time you're by the time you're how old are you
gonna twenty three seventy four.

Speaker 3 (54:50):
Right, we're not talking about the age.

Speaker 6 (54:53):
When you get to eighty, bitcoin will be over two hundred.

Speaker 3 (54:56):
Thousands, okay, and I think it might be over two dollars.
We'll see. Uh. I remember the tulip, the tulip, right.

Speaker 6 (55:06):
Yeah, till you're frame the tulips in twenty twelve, and
then they said it again in twenty sixteen, they said
again in twenty twenty. I agree, and now then again
twenty one.

Speaker 3 (55:13):
Now, every every single, every single bit coin sell off
has been followed by a new high, every single one.
So you you they've got the bulls have that again.

Speaker 5 (55:22):
It depends on your time horizon though, because you could
be at ninety thousand right now, you could have taken
it all the way up from sixty. You're doing pretty good,
and then you see a drop back to that sixty
and you're out just because you're scared.

Speaker 3 (55:31):
Yeah, they're just as awful. And the only reason we
talk about it is because there's a lot of people
talking about it. I think the general public trust of
the coin is still probably under twenty percent.

Speaker 6 (55:41):
I will say this, phils are listening. If it gets
back up to one twenty, take your profits, yeah, because
there will be another crash, and then it'll do what
it does again.

Speaker 3 (55:50):
Where are you a buyer?

Speaker 6 (55:52):
I'm fine right here.

Speaker 3 (55:52):
Now, Ben, where are you a buyer? For it starts plunging,
we can know, I'm saying at one twenty stop yeah,
and then no, we.

Speaker 4 (55:59):
Should see out take it. It hits one twenty and
then he's.

Speaker 6 (56:01):
Going down to sixties.

Speaker 3 (56:02):
It's going the other way.

Speaker 6 (56:03):
It's going to sixty.

Speaker 3 (56:04):
You think it's going to sixty, and that's where you
get back in. Yeah. I think that's probably would be
a one channeling place. Just put your foot in the water.
We said last two weeks ago that if it could
not hold ninety two thousand, that there would be a
cascade of selling. And it did not hold. Ninety two thousand,
went to seventy eight. Now it bounced back a lot
of it due to Trump and his announcement. Had that

(56:28):
not happened, I don't know where it would be today.
Probably going to be in the seventies somewhere. But I
think you're right, Chad. I would my general thinking is
probably in the fifty sixty range somewhere, but you think
somewhere anywhere in the mid sixties. But some to watch
very volatile, very speculative Costco. How about Costco on Friday?
This was crazy. Costco's up thirty five percent in the

(56:50):
last twelve months. It was down eight percent on Friday. Now,
they did report a small earnings myths, but because sales
are reported monthly, the quarterly earnings report is generally a yawn,
but it does. Selling generally comes with that, just because
it always does. You know, there's kind of a knowing
that every quarter Costco will drop a little bit after

(57:13):
earning's well, it started dropping Friday morning and it just
kept dropping and dropping, and it ends up down eight percent.
My thought on that would be, it's very tempting. Costco
is a wonderful company. It's extremely expensive stock. It's fifty
five times earning. It's extremely expensive, probably oh probably five
times at least of any other retailer price to perfection,

(57:36):
extremely expensive stock, So be careful. My take, when you
have a large drop like that, it's going to take
some time. And it may be different with Costco because
it's such a quality company. But when you get a
big drop like that, generally that's not the last drop. Generally,
there's more to come. When you get that big of

(57:57):
a sell off, and it takes typically weeks or even
months for it to stabilize. So if you're if you've
been watching Costco, you're sorry, you misstant uh would like
to get in. My advice would be to maybe by
a quarter of what you want to end.

Speaker 6 (58:12):
Up with what we don't.

Speaker 5 (58:14):
Don't catch the falling knife, right.

Speaker 3 (58:16):
Sometimes you do catch that falling knife, and boy, you
really really look smart. But generally you're in the in
the intensive carry unit with a badly cut hand. Generally
what happened when you try to catch the falling knife.
So let's talk about Tesla a little bit, buddy more.
We think we'll talk about it a little bit. But
the stock has just been been killed down forty percent.

(58:38):
Remember it hit that post election high, doubled and then
it was up four percent on Monday. Get this, it
was up four percent on Monday at the open after
Morgan Stanley named the stock a new top pick in
US autos. That was Monday, a new a top pick
in US autos. I'm thinking, wow, they expect a bounce

(58:59):
of fifty. However, it didn't work out well this week,
and they did say that on Monday, and.

Speaker 5 (59:07):
I mean it comes in after the news like last week,
what would your come up would come out with the
fifty percent dropping sales on Tesla's right.

Speaker 3 (59:14):
And then this week was was Last week was followed
by a news out of China that Tesla sales in
February and China were down fifty percent. Down fifty that's significant.

Speaker 5 (59:25):
And I mean if I was an investor in Tesla
years ago and I'm thinking that Elon Musk is a
great CEO and he's you know, all in it for
the company, I'm a little bit weary here seeing how
much he's participating in the government, right, just because it's
his mind's on Tesla company.

Speaker 4 (59:40):
See, I don't know, but does he have somebody running
at that No, of course rely. Yeah, it doesn't seem
like people believe it.

Speaker 6 (59:46):
Yeah, I mean he's still the CEO, right, and he's
still got SpaceX that he's putting a lot of effort in.

Speaker 4 (59:50):
They got a lot of co I mean he's got
Neuralink SpaceX.

Speaker 6 (59:53):
Yeah, boring company that.

Speaker 4 (59:55):
AI won that ax Hire whatever that's worth like eighty
five billion, that's one of his bigger companies.

Speaker 6 (01:00:01):
Yeah, well I think that's part of kind of X right,
Like it's rock right, SpaceX thing blow up?

Speaker 3 (01:00:05):
Right, SpaceX thing blew up?

Speaker 1 (01:00:07):
R Yeah, I was.

Speaker 6 (01:00:08):
That's what I want to talk about, was that SpaceX launch,
and I wanted to I forgot they have a coming
up trip to the Moon and I didn't know if
that was if that was the ship that blew up.
I don't think it was, but they were working with
NASA to make a to return back to the Moon
I think coming up in like twenty six like an
actual manned ship to that. So I wonder if this

(01:00:30):
this blow up is just gonna slow that down.

Speaker 3 (01:00:33):
Yeah, I saw.

Speaker 5 (01:00:34):
That was what I've really been supressed with is watching
the SpaceX like rocket launches and the I guess landings
you have like these. Have you guys seen a video
of it? I showed you one.

Speaker 4 (01:00:45):
Yeah, it's pretty cool.

Speaker 5 (01:00:46):
It's amazing. It's like you're watching a video game. Oh yeah, really,
I mean these rockets are coming in from out of
space that yeah, thousands of miles per hour and the
prongs catch them.

Speaker 6 (01:00:54):
Yes, well they did that a like probably six months
ago for the first time. And you could see the
video of all the engineers just cheering and just going
absolutely nuts because it takes a lot of math to
figure that one out.

Speaker 3 (01:01:08):
Oh yeah, phenomenal.

Speaker 6 (01:01:09):
But yes, So the SpaceX was planning for mid twenty
twenty seven. It's called Artemis three and it's the next
planned man lunar mission and it's a collaboration between SpaceX
and that's okay. So well, no for sure if the
moon landing was fake or not. Yeah, by twenty.

Speaker 3 (01:01:27):
Eight I was speaking of the speaking of math, I
was listening to I was. There was a friend of
my post on Facebook. He said, I'm sitting here during
my taxes wondering why I spend so much time in
school studying parallelograms rather than taxes. Could they please teach
me something that I'm going to use.

Speaker 5 (01:01:47):
I could say the same thing about utility curves and
indifference curves and economics class. What good does that do?

Speaker 1 (01:01:52):
Man?

Speaker 6 (01:01:53):
That's all an interesting article here though, about this the
manned Moon mission. Of the prospects of how the start
ship blow up kind of hangs the prospects of mining
the Moon in the balance, And I kind of forgot
about that future of technology being able to mine like
asteroids or mining the moon or things like that. That'd

(01:02:14):
be really interesting thing mining the moon. Yeah, I mean
that's what they're talking about. But they talk, you know how,
They'll say, this asteroid has right, crazy, has all the
goal that would like solve world hug or whatever. It's like, well,
how do you get there?

Speaker 3 (01:02:28):
Right?

Speaker 6 (01:02:28):
How do you how do you figure that one out?

Speaker 3 (01:02:30):
Theird thing about mining the moon is you probably wouldn't
get a lot of pushback from the environmentalists.

Speaker 4 (01:02:35):
Yeah, you got a private company out of Colorado just
landed a rover on the moon. It has That company
has two undred employees and it just put something on
the moon. It has clear pictures of it, and everything
by the south bull of the moon is crazy.

Speaker 5 (01:02:46):
The moon just fair game. If I'm smart enough, I
could send something.

Speaker 6 (01:02:49):
To go ahead, try plant. That's how it goes.

Speaker 3 (01:02:55):
I've been a big fan of Starbucks ever since so
Brian Nichols took over, and I don't drink coffees. I'm
sure they're thrilled, and I'm a big fan. Up thirty
dropped eleven percent in the past few days. A little
profit taking. So many changes going on, so many radical changes. Really,
I shouldn't say radical. Some of these dramatic changes by

(01:03:16):
Nichols layoffs at the corporate level. We talked about that
last week. Slicing the current menu by two thirds. You're
gonna get rid of a whole bunch.

Speaker 4 (01:03:24):
Of the getting rid of eleven drinks. And the drinks
are all like the fancy frappucinos that take forever to make.
And that's what his idea was, get rid of these
fancy ones that are low. They don't sell a lot,
so it improves efficiency, efficiens, get people in and out
quicker from the drive through. But he's also I mean,
he's doing radical changes. You're saying, but it's going back
to whatever say radical.

Speaker 3 (01:03:45):
I did say radical, and I took that back either way.

Speaker 4 (01:03:47):
Dramatic change, dramatic changes. But they're going back to what
they were before is what he wants. The sharpiest that
Sebastian hates. They're riding on the cups again. He wants
to build these Starbucks. They get his stickers too home
again like more tozy. You want to stay there. They're
doing a refill, Like if you go in and you
buy your cup in there with the actual glass, you

(01:04:08):
get a free refill as you're staying in the shop.

Speaker 5 (01:04:11):
You know what doing I changed my mind on the sharpiees.
It's it's personable.

Speaker 4 (01:04:14):
It's because you had one on Friday that actually saying
you have one?

Speaker 3 (01:04:17):
Did you have.

Speaker 6 (01:04:18):
It?

Speaker 5 (01:04:18):
Said happy Friday? You made it like it just got
me through the rest of the day.

Speaker 4 (01:04:22):
Dave like that.

Speaker 3 (01:04:23):
I like that.

Speaker 4 (01:04:23):
No, that's that's he's going back to what Starbucks was
like about fifteen twenty years ago in that sense, and
like he wants they want people to hang out at Starbucks,
not make it a Dutch bros. We're in and out,
in and out.

Speaker 3 (01:04:33):
I think the beauty of Nichols is is he was
CEO of Taco Bell. It was also CEO and I
can't think of the other thank you, but but Taco
Bell before I didn't know.

Speaker 5 (01:04:43):
That he was Taco Bell too.

Speaker 3 (01:04:45):
Yeah, that's great. All let those everywhere, right, So what
he's doing is he's going back to these companies. He
knows the good people, and he's he's pirating these good people.

Speaker 5 (01:04:54):
You just got a new CFO there, right, you.

Speaker 6 (01:04:56):
Got the CFO from Nordstrom.

Speaker 3 (01:04:57):
I mean, knows these people and and connected and he
knows from his time at Taco Bell that Todd and
Dylan and Sebastian were really good. Right, So he goes
and gets Todd and Dylan and Sebastian brings them over.
So I don't know. It just seems to me that
if you're if you've been looking for an entry point
at Starbucks and one may be coming up here.

Speaker 5 (01:05:17):
He's doing a good job, even working from home.

Speaker 3 (01:05:19):
Yeah, isn't that funny? And we laughed about that. How
the headquarters is in Seattle. He lives in Huntington Beach
and probably lives pretty well in Huntington Beach. Why would
you break that?

Speaker 6 (01:05:31):
I think also what you can make a case for
is look at the Chinese stock market and plot that
over Starbucks. It's a little bit of a correlation.

Speaker 3 (01:05:40):
That's a very good because China would keep forgetting that
China is their number one market. And one of my
concerns with Nichols when he came on board is he
doesn't really have any experience in China. Chipotle's not in China.

Speaker 6 (01:05:52):
Right, But China's kind of been the op like it's
come out, like you said, the green shoots. So it's
helped his numbers in the first couple of quarters. It's
coming off of what was really bad in China, right,
it could be driving the growth of that. We're starting
to see in the company.

Speaker 5 (01:06:08):
I can't remember what they did, but they changed the
franchising in China. Do you recall, I don't the way
that you open a franchise or open up in Starbucks.
I'll look into.

Speaker 3 (01:06:17):
Remember they were they were opening like one every nine hours.

Speaker 5 (01:06:19):
I'll do some housekeeping the next week.

Speaker 3 (01:06:20):
It was insane what they were doing.

Speaker 5 (01:06:22):
What about Oda this week?

Speaker 3 (01:06:23):
Go forward?

Speaker 5 (01:06:24):
I guy just want to talk about go ahead. And
you brought great earnings, ok, reported justice earnings of seventy
eight cents per share. Just really good earnings or really
good outlook going forward for the company. And so they
do what do they do? They're a duo authentication method.

Speaker 6 (01:06:44):
I like that.

Speaker 3 (01:06:45):
Yeah, I like it.

Speaker 5 (01:06:45):
So whenever we log into our computers here at Greenberg
Financial in the morning, I have to get a message
here to my phone or a link and it'll give
me a code. It'll give me a Dean has its
setup that you just push a button and it opens
up your systems.

Speaker 6 (01:06:57):
You know. The people like the code you get when
you get from the text message. That's what two factor
authentication is, people. That's that's what OAKEA does. It's a
very simple thing. You'd be surprised, but apparently they're one
of the few companies that are.

Speaker 5 (01:07:10):
They're one of the big Google.

Speaker 6 (01:07:12):
Google has one of the authentication app Oaked has the
authentication app, and that's pretty much it Google.

Speaker 4 (01:07:17):
For their authentication, you have to have the Google Mail app.
You have to go into it and say yes, this
is me. So for Oak that they just text you
full disclosure. We had a bunch of Oak to shares
and then with this pop we did sell. We took
our profit and ran in a sense, but it still
has a good outlook. But we were thinking it was
time for us to get out. We missed an opportunity
last year on a POP, so we decided to get
out now have everybody out and then raise some cash

(01:07:39):
and have other opportunities. But we still think it's a
good company.

Speaker 3 (01:07:42):
And were technically classified as cybersecurity.

Speaker 5 (01:07:44):
Right, yeah, it is. It's a it's the it's in
the cybers.

Speaker 6 (01:07:47):
C I b R in a world where you have
to prove your digital identity more and more so.

Speaker 4 (01:07:52):
It's increasing from just looking at is this a bike?
Is this a bike? Yes, I'm a human. It's more comfort.
It's getting better that.

Speaker 3 (01:08:00):
And I get it seems like, I'm on a number
of different sites that are password protected and I keep
getting notices. Would you like to do duel you know,
authentic confecnication? No, no, I don't even like this.

Speaker 4 (01:08:14):
Well maybe if you did Oak, they would have had
to even better earn.

Speaker 6 (01:08:17):
Another company that did not have a good week was Netflix.
Netflix had been done doing really really well, got close
to it, I think the one thousand dollars level. Yeah,
I got afove it above a thousand. Yeah, but it's
really been selling.

Speaker 3 (01:08:28):
Like three days ago.

Speaker 6 (01:08:30):
That wasn't that long ago recent?

Speaker 3 (01:08:32):
Yes?

Speaker 6 (01:08:33):
Oh yeah, I mean.

Speaker 3 (01:08:34):
All time high just like a week ago.

Speaker 6 (01:08:36):
Oh no, that all time high was February tenth of
the all time high. Really, yeah, but it was above
a thousand. Just I mean it lost a lot this week.
I mean, if I this week, it lost ninety points.
So yeah, what do we finish that this week for Netflix?
Eight ninety one?

Speaker 3 (01:08:51):
It dropped eighteen percent last two weeks. Wow.

Speaker 6 (01:08:54):
Yeah, And the analyst if you look at the news,
there's differing opinions, which means no one really knows it
probably just more profit taking. They had run up really
heavily off their last earnings report. Everyone loved to hear
that they're increasing subscriptions, subscribers and things like that.

Speaker 5 (01:09:09):
Really expanding into Mexico. And I think that that's good
for them. I'd be a buyer.

Speaker 6 (01:09:13):
Okay.

Speaker 3 (01:09:13):
I did see an analysts report that that the this
analyst thought that the subscriber boom that's been taking place
because of that password, them cracking down on the passwords.

Speaker 5 (01:09:24):
I had to go get my own account. I used
to use my parents.

Speaker 3 (01:09:27):
Okay, yeah, yeah, they cracking down the passwords just coming
to an end. And not the cracking down the passwords,
but the.

Speaker 6 (01:09:34):
Amount of people like you who need to get a
new account.

Speaker 3 (01:09:36):
Got a new explosion they experienced as a result of
that password cracking down is coming to and that's this
particular analyst thought that, So that may have something to do.
I had a Friday afternoon. I noticed Lily was down
five percent on Friday and Hymn's was up five percent.
They could find any news. Do you see any news?

Speaker 5 (01:09:57):
Nova was down like three percent, But on Thursday they're
up about five and a half percent because they said
that they're going to cost their they're going to lower
their costs on their drug about fifty percent or something.

Speaker 4 (01:10:07):
Crazy.

Speaker 3 (01:10:07):
No they did the same thing Lily did.

Speaker 1 (01:10:08):
Yeah, they did.

Speaker 3 (01:10:09):
They went online.

Speaker 5 (01:10:10):
Yeah, I'm not sure what happened on.

Speaker 3 (01:10:12):
If you get online and do a subscriber thing with Novo,
it's the same thing. There will go v in their Ozambic.
They they are fifty half price, and it makes you wonder,
you know. And what Lily says, well, we're trying to
get it in the hands of more people, and I'm thinking,
how about trying to sell any you know? Is that
what's going on here is that it is has the
demand been weak enough? I'm not weak enough. Has the

(01:10:36):
demand been disappointing enough that you're having to lower the
price by half. That's a big price cut. Why would
you lower the price by half under any circumstance, Because
you're doing your thing for humanity, really, Lily, you're going
to do something for humanity. I mean, I appreciate the drugs,
you know, and.

Speaker 5 (01:10:56):
I don't know that the drugs are the best for
society or humanity.

Speaker 3 (01:10:59):
No. I mean, I'm here forty years post open heart surgery,
so uh, you know, I Big farmers kept me alive,
So I've got nothing but love for big pharma.

Speaker 6 (01:11:08):
Big surgery kept you alive.

Speaker 3 (01:11:09):
I had big surgery. Yeah too, but Big farmerstince then
because I've got you know when you have a jeans
that when you have bad jeans, Big Farmer can help
you keep those bad jeans at bay.

Speaker 6 (01:11:21):
Whatever it was, just your Coca Cola. Let's be the die.
That's what's that's what's been.

Speaker 3 (01:11:26):
A lot of coke can live to be very old.
I've heardless of what.

Speaker 4 (01:11:30):
I've heard a spokesman for Coke, don't don't.

Speaker 3 (01:11:33):
And I suppose the five million steps a year helps
to Maybe probably that's just so much. Just take I
would have been okay anyway. Anyway, we're coming to the
end of this segment. We appreciate you taking time out
to join us once again. If you haven't gotten that
free financial plan, give us a call. We're still doing
them or doing them by the bunches. We'd love to
see you.

Speaker 5 (01:11:52):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Borersen him here with David Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg and
Todd click Junior.

Speaker 6 (01:11:57):
Here in the office. We talk a lot about energy
dreams because Sebastian loves them, love them, and so does
Celsius loves might love more than I do. It's true. Yeah,
Dean and Sebastian love energy drinks. Sebastian, one of your favorites, Celsius.
It's been a a couple of fun weeks for.

Speaker 5 (01:12:15):
Them, Huh, been killing it. They're going up just because
they acquired this new company called Elani New, and they
are Elani New that you could compare them to Celsius
about two to three years ago. Celsius two to three
years ago. They had ambassadors at colleges D one athletes
pitching their drinks. Elani New is now that same energy

(01:12:38):
drink that Celsius was about two to three years ago. Yes,
Celsius's market share has been declining, but upon this acquisition
of the company, I think it's a really good play
for them.

Speaker 3 (01:12:50):
Oh, you and I talked about it, and I thought
it was a yawn, But it's really has not been
a yon I think. But you said something about about
females being.

Speaker 5 (01:12:58):
Dressed drink Elani Knew. I mean, I personally won't probably
be walking around with the energy drink just because whatever.
It's pink, it's it's market early, it's girly, it's marketed
towards women, it is right, and they love it, especially
in the younger demographic in college and people that are
in gyms. If whenever I go to the gym LA fitness,

(01:13:18):
all I see girls holding Now it's not the Bang
energy drinks or the Rain energy drinks. It's a Lani
new energy drink.

Speaker 3 (01:13:24):
Whatever it is, how do you fell?

Speaker 5 (01:13:26):
I've never tasted it.

Speaker 6 (01:13:27):
Actually, I think a l A n I and you Okay.
My problem with these energy drinks is there's always there's
always a new There's always a new one. Three years later,
there's always a new one.

Speaker 5 (01:13:40):
Yeah right. I'm more looking at this as a trade
rather than a long term investors.

Speaker 3 (01:13:45):
Stick with die Coke. You know, that's my energy drink.
I don't know anything.

Speaker 1 (01:13:50):
You know.

Speaker 3 (01:13:50):
A Intel was in the news again. Uh you know.
Nantel has quietly risen fourteen percent this year, up more
than two percent on Monday after Reuters said that Nvidia
and Broadcom are running tests with Intel in Nvidian Broadcom.
The test signal that both companies are heading closer to
committing hundreds of millions of dollars with a manufacturing contracts

(01:14:13):
at Intel. Remember we talked last week about the foundry
in Phoenix and most For those of you who don't know,
a foundry is a facility that actually manufactures the chips.
Taiwan Semi is a big foundry. Nvidia is a brain
trust that comes up with these spectacular designs for cutting

(01:14:40):
edge chips, but they have to be produced by someone
who has a foundry. It may be that Intel's future
is manufacturing products for others. I mean, maybe that's their future.
They can't seem to get out of their own way.

Speaker 5 (01:14:58):
Well, wasn't that the plan for the boundary up there.

Speaker 3 (01:15:01):
I certainly they're the plan was to get business from
others for the foundry, but I'm certain that that part
of the plan was to manufacture their own right, and
their own is really not Nobody wants.

Speaker 5 (01:15:13):
Them that important.

Speaker 6 (01:15:14):
IBM jump five percent on Friday, back up to it's
close to its all time high. That stock has just
continue to gain on the AI sector as well as
just It has something called Watson X which a lot
of businesses use to help with really just practical business applications.
I mean, imagine you have a supply chain in China

(01:15:36):
and it's getting routed to France and you need to
find a more efficient route. AI can run all those
different simulations of oh, use this company instead of this company,
or use this route instead of that route, and they'll
save you this x amount of dollars. And so there's
those commercials that you see on IBM on that kind
of are very vague and like just come see us,
we can help you. That's what they do. They business
have these problems and problems they don't even know they have,

(01:15:58):
and AI and before that their supercomputer was able to
help them find efficient ways to cost I.

Speaker 3 (01:16:06):
Was watching the History Channel the other night on the
on the history of grocery stores, and it was quite
fascinating how they started off and how it was such
a such a bizarre idea for shoppers to go in
and select their own groceries. You gave a list to
someone and they would go get the groceries for you.
And then and the Kroger pioneered, okay, go ahead, go

(01:16:27):
ahead and get them yourself. And then they were like, no, well,
what what are you doing here? It was just such
a such an anyway, long story short, grocery store changed,
whether whether it be Safeway or Kroger's or or NP
or whatever, we're really doing well. The business was expanding dramatically.
The problem they had is is there was a bottleneck

(01:16:49):
at the checkout counter. Every one of them had the
same problem, a bottleneck at the checkout counter because it
was you ringing one at a time, ringing it all up.
So they all got to get other and invited companies
in to pitch a solution to this logjam. And interestingly,

(01:17:10):
the solution as we know today was the QR code
or the what did they call it on a barco debarco,
thank you, the barcode, which was IBM. IBM invented the barcode,
you know.

Speaker 4 (01:17:21):
Speaking to IBM and A the inventions, we've been wondering
how they were. IBM was dormant for years, yes, and
then I read a story the other day about how
they've gotten back to where they were and how they've
expand their stock has just been killing it the last
five years or so. Their new CEO that took over
about probably five years ago, he's from within. He worked

(01:17:41):
at IBM for thirty years. He took over and he
kickstarted innovation again at IBM. The story was saying that
IBM has become had become so complacent where the employees
just didn't want to mess up. They didn't want to exactly.
It's it's similar to Intel. Intel I can get a
new CEO that invites innovation and not they were. The

(01:18:02):
employees were scared to do something to mess up, they
would get fired. So the CEO comes in and he says,
act work every day like you're gonna get fired. And
his idea behind that was innovate, mess up. It's okay
if you mess up. We're taking an approach where if
your team has something that fails that's new that we're
looking into, trying to do that's new, but it doesn't

(01:18:22):
work out, it's not one person's fault. It's no fault.
We're just moving on to something new and he now
and then he also put it to the teams. They
get up to five hundred thousand dollars on project managers
to mess with without having to go up to upper management.
So then they can just do more things, innovate more experience,
get out there and try and that's what kickstarted this

(01:18:44):
huge stock run in the last three years.

Speaker 3 (01:18:46):
That may be what's going on in Threem as.

Speaker 4 (01:18:48):
Well, or maybe so if Intel starts going off again,
maybe that's why too.

Speaker 6 (01:18:53):
Yeah, IBM is really good at tracking people that they
have a long history.

Speaker 3 (01:19:00):
So you were thinking somehow that's related to the barcode.

Speaker 6 (01:19:03):
Yeah, just reminded me of it.

Speaker 3 (01:19:05):
Okay, Yeah, I was fascinated.

Speaker 5 (01:19:06):
They want to elaborate a little bit.

Speaker 3 (01:19:09):
The same story. Interesting this is I find this fascinating
because I'm easily fascinated. The guy that invented the first
really creamy peanut butter, uh right, was a partnered with Swift,
which was a meatpacking company, to distribute it, and they
they had a funny name for it, but it ultimately

(01:19:31):
became Peter Pan. Anyway, they had a contractual dispute, the
company and the guy that invented Peter Pan. Uh. And
the guy that invented Peter Pan said the heck with you,
I am out of here, and he decided to go
get his own peanut butter. And guess what he came
up with in addition to coming up with Peter Pan
was skippy. Yeah, the same guy invented both. The same

(01:19:54):
guy invented both. That's pretty cool.

Speaker 6 (01:19:57):
I mean, what do you do just change one gred here?

Speaker 3 (01:19:58):
I mean, come on, well you have yeah, yeah, yeah,
probably have to have a little bit more than that.

Speaker 6 (01:20:02):
Yeah, it were the patent rules, right, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:20:04):
I think there, Yeah, they were. It was patented. And
and then of course Procter Gamble decides to get into
the game and they come up with they come up
with their peanut butter. So it's a It became a
pretty big business. I thought it was interesting. The guy
that that developed Peter Pan also developed.

Speaker 6 (01:20:18):
The history of products and the industries and businesses.

Speaker 3 (01:20:21):
You know. In nineteen thirty three, PEPSI was really really
struggling under a lawsuit from Coca Cola, and they offered
to sell Coca Cola the entire company for fifty thousand dollars.

Speaker 6 (01:20:33):
Yeah, wow, we'll go. And Cols got a very interesting
story of how it got created. It was like, literally,
I believe a doctor and he was like trying to
find these different recipes and started selling them all the
back of his truck. And then you know, it's really fascinating.

Speaker 4 (01:20:47):
Mario Mario bros. Yeah, he's a real person that rented
the warehouse to Nintendo back in the day. That's nah,
the character Mario.

Speaker 3 (01:20:55):
Seriously, holy cow, holy kah. We had a bunch of
earnings reports this week. Just a couple of highlights of
Abercrombie and Fitch. That's one that we just could not
understand what had happened there. That stock had rallied eight
hundred percent in eighteen months ending in December of last year,
eight hundred percent.

Speaker 4 (01:21:17):
So I told you why that was happening though, Well
you did. Yeah, they reinvented their whole way. They grew
up with the people that the group buying their stuff
twelve years ago. But it's still eight I mean it's huge,
but that's a big reason.

Speaker 3 (01:21:28):
Well sens it has fallen by fifty percent, and it
opened sixteen percent lower Wednesday after the dreaded week guidance,
and we saw weak guidance from CrowdStrike. I saw weak
guidance from Box. I saw the aero Vironment. Do you
know them Steabaska?

Speaker 1 (01:21:47):
You like.

Speaker 3 (01:21:49):
It's an unmanned aircraft maker unmanned aircraft Yeah, I don't
think so, that's Tom You know aero Vironment. This is crazy,
down fifteen percent send in the last twelve months, down
twenty two percent of the open On Wednesday, the firm
reported weaker than expected for your guidance. Stock rebounded and
close pretty much flat that day, And I'm thinking, apparently

(01:22:12):
there are more people interested in pilot less airplanes than me. Yeah,
I'm really not interested in pilotless airplanes on any level.

Speaker 5 (01:22:20):
No, definitely not. What would you say, Ambercrombie was up
eight hundred percent and how.

Speaker 3 (01:22:24):
Long eighteen months?

Speaker 5 (01:22:26):
Eighteen months?

Speaker 6 (01:22:27):
Have you heard of Sea Limited Limited? Yeah? Se Se
is up one hundred and thirty percent over the last year,
like twenty nine percent year to date. This is a
company that's basically PayPal for Asia.

Speaker 3 (01:22:39):
PayPal for Asia. Okay, is it publicly traded here?

Speaker 6 (01:22:44):
It is publicly traded. It's on the New York Stock Exchange.
They just reported earnings came right in line with the
expectations on March fourth, and they continue to increase their
net margin and their revenue figures quarter over quarter, last
five quarters in a row. Actually, they've been increasing their
revenue figures and their net margins. So very interesting company.
Something you should be aware about is they have a

(01:23:06):
really really high price to earnings ratio because they just
started to have earnings just a while ago. So as
they have that problem of having an e Now what's
the number, but well, the trailing was always higher. The
ford's only like fifty six, but the trailings one hundred
and eighty six.

Speaker 3 (01:23:22):
Yeah, we've talked before about it. If you have no E,
it's hard to value you what you are. But if
you start having an E, then you're going to have
a pe.

Speaker 6 (01:23:31):
The thing that's really interesting about this stock because this
stock went up to all back back in twenty twenty
one when you have that crazy throw at dart everything works.
It went up to three hundred and seventy dollars per
share and it's currently at one hundred and thirty five.
It went down all the way to about like thirty
nine dollars per share from three seventy, so it had
quite a rundown and it's starting to get some legs

(01:23:52):
back over the last couple of years.

Speaker 3 (01:23:53):
Some of it drops over the last month in stock,
there's just a.

Speaker 6 (01:23:59):
Whole pint is a way to say, yeah, I mean.

Speaker 3 (01:24:01):
Worse than that, even Todd. There's a bunch of stocks
down fifty percent. And we'll be back with the final
segment of the Money Matter Show. Thanks again for joining
us on this Sunday morning.

Speaker 4 (01:24:12):
Welcome back to the final segment of the Money Matter Show.
We had a busy show this week with a lot
of stuff going on, you know, with all the uncertainty
with the Trump tariffs. We don't know when it's going
to go and acted what's gonna happen with it, But
we're trying to navigate the markets. It's kind of a
roller coaster right now. And with that, I mean, that's
why we do the financial plan. We didn't have a
lot of people, a lot of our clients didn't call us.

Speaker 6 (01:24:34):
There's a hundred percent song ever, yeah, yeah, one hundred
percent free financial plan.

Speaker 4 (01:24:38):
Hundred percent free. We like to help people with it.
We like to educate people during it, and it helps
sleep better at night in a sense. They don't call
when the markets are as valatile as they are right
now because we take the extensive time to go through
their plan, talk about how we'll invest it, make sure
they understand what they'll be invested in, and understand the
risk talks. That's the biggest thing we talked about in

(01:24:58):
the first hour of the show. Tolerance. It's the most
important thing when you're investing, because then if your risk
tolerance is very low yet you're all in stocks right
this last week, you wouldn't be sleeping very well. But
if you're very low risk tolerance and you're in a
lot of bonds, you would have been fine because that's
how you know. So that's what we want to do
before we get to invest in your account. We want

(01:25:19):
to make sure we know we're on the same page
your risk tolerance on what you're comfortable with investing. And
we do do the own money management here along with
the financial plan and work. In a sense, we're a
small family office. Family offices are usually for billionaires and
all those families that just work with one family, they
do everything. They got their state planning, they got their
charitable giving, they got their financial planning, they got all

(01:25:41):
their other entrepreneurial ideas that go through that office. We
like to do that. We like to bring an aspect
of that to our clients, multiple clients. We do that
through our financial plan and our money management, but then
we also team up with Edward Law Firm to do
a state plan and he Jonathan Sabilia, works out of
our office. I know you've heard him on the radio
show before. He has this radio show sometimes on Saturdays.

(01:26:02):
We also work with Johnson and Johnson Taxi Group over
on Oracle and we try to bring a one stop
shop idea to our clients because we feel that It
makes it easier, makes more efficient. You don't have to
go around town trying to find somebody else. You can
call us. We can get you set up with other people.
We have Q and a group who we work with
which it comes to Medicare, we have all these different

(01:26:23):
outlets that are available to you and we try to
provide a family office for any investor size doesn't have
to be ultra wealthy.

Speaker 6 (01:26:32):
Yeah, we have a lot of resources and it ultimately
that's why we started doing financial plans because we realize
clients don't just want help with their money management, they
want helps with their entire financial life all the decisions
that come along with it. And when we do the
financial plan, it's really interesting of all the different questions
and concerns that pop up, and sometimes even the client
didn't even know they had. As Dylan says, we have

(01:26:53):
Medicare specialists. A lot of times people don't know that
there's a difference between Medicare advantage and Medicare supplement. What's
the pro and con What do I need? Yeah, we
can talk vaguely about it, but we would rather you
speak with an actual specialist who does this every single day.
And we have those resources. Same with the tax side.
Obviously we can help with talking about strategies, looking at
estimations on what we could say from roth conversions and

(01:27:14):
things like that from a cash flow perspective, but then
we have to look work with an expert to make
sure that everything is looking good. Same with the estate
planning side. We know how to transfer assets most efficiently,
but we need to have an attorney actually put it
in law right and he is the one that actually
puts the recommendations at the end of the day. So
we have all these different resources. One that I really

(01:27:35):
am proud that we've developed over the last i'd say
year or so is our phillent tropic side of our business,
because people don't really understand all the tax advantages and
strategies you can do when you start gifting and when
people reach this distribution or gifting phase, if you're not
in that ultra high net worth client tele circle, you

(01:27:57):
are not going to get privy to the type of
strategies and things like donor advise funds, endowments. What are
the differences between the two? What are all the deductions
that you can take against your adjusted gross income from
these type of contributions? Qcds, which are qualified charitable distributions
out of your iras. And also some people don't even
know simple things like what is a step up and basis.

(01:28:18):
There's a lot of things from a tax advantage standpoint
that you can play games with by taking from this
account rather than this account while giving, and it helps
you while living as well, not just the end of
the plan. So you know, I just took the Trusted
Charitable Advising certification and we work with the Jewish Community
Foundation that helps vet organizations for our clients. If they

(01:28:39):
are trying to look for an organization that you know
helps with homeless or or helps with people going through
domestic violence, they'll make sure that that organization is doing
what they say with the money. If you want to
put a grant together, we'll help you find where to
fund that grant and then ultimately the Community Foundation helps
make sure that the grant is followed and things like that.

(01:29:00):
So with all the different complexities of financial life, our
job is to make it simple and take care of
it for you. What I always like to tell people
is where your CFO. You're the CEO, you make decisions.
We give you advice on where the business is going
and where we think you should take it, but ultimately
it's your decision and we tell you how to execute
it most efficiently.

Speaker 4 (01:29:18):
Yeah. And that charitable foundation, the Jewish Charitable Foundation. You
don't have to be Jewish too.

Speaker 6 (01:29:23):
Yeah, it doesn't have any leanings towards Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:29:25):
It's just that's what's the name of it. But anybody
can invest with them. And it's a great thing to
do if you don't know exactly what you want to
donate to, but you want to know you want to
donate something. It gives you time and it gives you
breathing room.

Speaker 3 (01:29:36):
I can speak honestly about the financial plans because I'm
not involved with them. You guys do them, and I'm
always amazed, and I've said it in a few of them.
I'm always amazed at what peace of mind people get
from the financial plan. But I think the thing that
amazes me the most is the level of sophistication. I've
been in this business a long time seeing a lot

(01:29:57):
of financial plans. The level of sophistication that's provided for
something that's totally free is ridiculous. It's ridiculous.

Speaker 4 (01:30:05):
I think there's a lot of detail in the plan
and That's why a lot of clients feel comfortable once
they eventually do sign up as to be a client.
We've gone through all the steps and all the details,
and all the questions and all the scenarios that they
might have. Whether social Security might get cut, I know
that's a big one. All the time inflation stays higher
than they expect, all those different scenarios, we can show

(01:30:26):
how it can impact your plan in real time and
see if it even matters to your overall plan and
put your questions the rest with answers that make it
feel comfortable.

Speaker 6 (01:30:35):
Yeah, sometimes people have concerns and then we've run it
through the plan and they realize it was never never
been a concern in the first place. But you can
make something feel so big and so stressful in your
head if you don't actually go through the plan and
realize it right.

Speaker 5 (01:30:47):
And I think the ability for the software and the
financial plan to be able to visualize it for you,
being able to sit in and see how your accounts
can perform over these next thirty years thousand different trials.
We could look inside numbers again, the visualization aspect of
it is.

Speaker 6 (01:31:03):
Yeah, clients like seeing the plan. I mean at the
end of the day, if you're working with some advisor
that's doing the financial plan behind a computer or even
on their on their little notebook or something, it you're
just talking in the air, or they give you a
big illustration that has all these numbers and the book book,
I don't know even know how to digest it.

Speaker 5 (01:31:20):
And not to mention the fact that a lot of
those times that financial plan that you come up with
for maybe at a different firm is stagnant right ours
is not. It's very dynamic. So if you become a
client and you need to purchase a car in about
three years, we want to hear about that. We want
to put it into the plan and see the most
cost efficient way for the plan, the course of the plan,
and how it's going to affect the plan.

Speaker 3 (01:31:41):
I think it's amazing because you've got you've got the
tools where say, okay, if you live to be eighty five,
here's the scenario. Now, if you live to be ninety,
here's the scenario. If you live to be ninety five,
here's because none of us know.

Speaker 6 (01:31:52):
Yeah, we could play a lot of what if scenarios,
which which is really nice. And when you come in
for the first initial meeting, we create your financial plan
right there, but that's not really the plan that we're
going to end up implementing because in the second meeting,
based on how you answer the risk tolerance that we
send you, that's when we come back with proposal, and
that's going to have your recommendation suggestions based off the
original plan that you created. Even if you didn't have

(01:32:14):
a plan, we just create a plan from what you
currently have then with the risk and then we create
a plan on top of that of what our recommendations
are in that and so that's that's how the process works.

Speaker 3 (01:32:24):
There is homework the.

Speaker 6 (01:32:26):
Risk tolerance question here.

Speaker 3 (01:32:27):
No, no, no, no, there's homework before the meeting.

Speaker 6 (01:32:29):
Oh well yes, I mean we send you, we send
you an email and you have to get a list
of all this stuff. I mean, account statements, if you
have insurance policies. You got to know how much you're making,
if you're still working when you want to retire, what
your current expenses are. One of the hardest ones.

Speaker 5 (01:32:43):
Say that's our favorite one, the expense figure.

Speaker 3 (01:32:45):
Right, it's a hard one. That's a hard one.

Speaker 6 (01:32:47):
Most people don't know what Most people will say they're
making ten thousand and you know, they'll tell me how
I'm spending six thousand, and what I love to do
is say, okay, so where's the four thousand going? And
they usually have not a good answer for it, so
they realize that they're spending more than that six thousand.
So always do that first. Don't try to add up
your expenses. That's one of my pet pee's When people
try to do their budget, you're always going to miss

(01:33:09):
something if you try to add them up. Work backwards,
what's coming in the door, what's left afterwards?

Speaker 3 (01:33:14):
Yeah, And I think the other thing that I like
about it is a different market scenarios. If we have
a two thousand and eight type meltdown, here's what your
allocation can look like. If we have a rally, Here's
what if intertrates rise, Here's what's gonna look like. Yeah,
if we have a stock market rally.

Speaker 6 (01:33:30):
And for the people that are worried about social security cut,
if you really want to run the scenario, we can
do it for you. But it's an unrealistic fear. I mean,
there is no legislat I had another client coming this week.
They're trying to work on cutting solid security. They're not
working on it. There is no even words on legislative
paper even trying to be proposed to get.

Speaker 4 (01:33:46):
That can down the road as long as possible, because
no politician wants to be the one to actually have
solid security cut.

Speaker 6 (01:33:51):
It's closer taxes removed from sold security, not removing.

Speaker 3 (01:33:55):
So especially reminder of people with our money. Okay, it's
our money. It's not an entitle a program is our money.
And we have guns, and we have a lot of guns.
We way more guns than the government anyway. But you're right,
I'm hearing that same thing whenever people get concerned. You know,
the half of the population is concerned about by Trump,
you know, by Musk and what's going on. So, oh,

(01:34:15):
they're gonna cut my Social Security. They're gonna take away
my retirement account. Oh, the government's gonna come and confiscate
your retirement account.

Speaker 1 (01:34:22):
Huh.

Speaker 3 (01:34:22):
I've been hearing that. I've been hearing that for forty years, ton, Yeah,
I'm gonna that for forty years. They're gonna cut my
Social Security. No they're not. They're trying to find ways
to save it. What they might do is extend the
amount of time before you can get benefits.

Speaker 6 (01:34:37):
If anything. Right now, you should be rooting on because
they might get taxes removed from Social Security and that
just means more money in your pocket.

Speaker 3 (01:34:45):
And didn't didn't that not taxing social Security past the House?

Speaker 6 (01:34:49):
And I do believe it passed.

Speaker 3 (01:34:51):
I don't know what. And I went to Google this
last night and I couldn't get it to come up.
They kept showing me other things. What the total Social
Security benefits paid per year are in the United States.
I don't know what that is, but it's probably as
hundreds of billions, I would think.

Speaker 6 (01:35:07):
I think if I did the I think it's like
five hundred billion.

Speaker 3 (01:35:09):
If it's five hundred billion, okay, so that five hundred
billion is taxed as regular income. So you're going to
in a country that's going down the toilet financially, stop
receiving that tax base. Oh that makes that makes so
much sense As a Social Security recipient, I'm all in.
But it's the stupidest thing.

Speaker 6 (01:35:30):
Twenty twenty five, the Soil Security Administration is projected distribute
approximately one point six trillion dollars in benefit.

Speaker 3 (01:35:35):
One point six trillion. Let's let's not pay tax on that. Anyway.
We're coming to the end of another money matter show.
We appreciate you taking time out of your business schedule
to join us. We love having an audience because if
we didn't have an audience to be kind of stupid,
right anyway, We want to be happy, and we all
want to be healthy, because if we're not healthy, we're
probably not happy.

Speaker 6 (01:35:54):
And a Greenberg financial

Speaker 1 (01:35:55):
Or re trying to be is profitable set

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Money Matters: Tariffs, Market Turmoil & Smart Financial Strategies

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

On Purpose with Jay Shetty

All Episodes

Money Matters: Tariffs, Market Turmoil & Smart Financial Strategies

Stuff You Should Know