Navigating an Uncomfortably Bullish Market: AI, Interest Rates, and Financial Planning Explained

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning everybody. It's that time once again, Sunday morning,
eight o'clock. Right here in seven ninety kN is Tea.
It is the Money Matter Show with Dean Greenberg. We'll
be here for the next two hours to try to
bring you some information about what's going on the markets.
Just keep bloading new highs, new highs, new highs. If
you're not uncomfortable at these levels, well good for you,

(00:20):
because I've been doing this a long time and I'm
uncomfortably bullish. Uncomfortably bullish. Why is that? What does that mean?
It means I'm uncomfortable with evaluations, but I'm bullish because
of what's going on in the AI technology market. I've
said this many times and I'm going to continue to
say it going forward. Going forward, we have a situation

(00:43):
where it's like the wrong twenties. We have a revolution
going on. The revolution back in the twenties was smoke
stacks manufacturing cause and it just helped the economy grow. Well,
now what we have is artificial intelligence AI. We hear
it all the time AAAI, and it has an immense,

(01:04):
immense reach and the companies, especially the big companies, are
always going to continue to be able to grow as
we need more and more. AI will there be a
time that it stops? Of course, I think we're in
the second inning of a ten inning game. Everyone says
ten innings. Why you say ten innings because back in
the nineties, when the dot com kept going and going
and going, and we heard green Span go ahead and say,

(01:26):
you know what, there's too much exuberance in this market,
and the market fell and came back and kept going
because that was the next inning. They went into overtime
and the exploded in ninety eight ninety nine after everyone
thought the top was in, only to be wrong into
two thousand. So I do believe it one day it
will stop going up. But in one day it's far

(01:47):
off from now. I do think we'll have pullbacks. I
think it's going to be very tough for some people
when they see a twenty thirty, forty fifty percent pull
back in their stock that they've held that has done
so great, But they have to remember where they've got
it from. Prudently though, prudently though, you should treat okay.
If you like having a two or three or five
percent position in a stock that's grown to six, seven, eight,

(02:08):
ten percent, pull it back a couple of percent. Maybe
you increase it to seven, but pull it back. Have
target markets for the stocks that you're in. If you
don't know what target you want, look at the analysts,
look at where they kind of think that if stock
is valued fully valued, and then when it gets to
they and goes a little bit more, take some money
off the table when it's starting to approach. You take
a little money off the table. Nothing wrong. If you

(02:30):
got five hundred chairs, to cut it back by two
hundred chairs, three hundred chairs. If it kept going, but
hold on to the other two hundred, you'll still make money,
and there will be possibilities that you will be better
off holding some of the more. But at the end
of the day, you're going to start seeing the markets
end up higher than they are. The problem is is

(02:51):
the volatility will create a scenario in your mind to
sell when you shouldn't sell. Why do I Why am
I uncomfortably bullishous because us obviously we have valuations. Why
am I bullish is because now we have the FED
behind us starting the lower interest rates. Yeah, it could
be a little inflationary, but in the end we can
now grow the inflation. If it just stays where it is.

(03:14):
We don't even know what the real reports are. We're
gonna start seeing reports. Who knows if they are real
or not real. At the end of the day, I
know this. The artificial intelligence AI is going to allow
us to be able to grow with a less labor force,
even on the ones that we need individuals, say agriculture,
because you know why, they're going to be building the

(03:36):
machines that they already have that men have to go
ahead and operate or women, and they're going to be
operated by just a computer, which will be more efficient,
it'll be quicker, it'll be faster, and there'll be no
labor you have to pay. Robots are going to be
coming in. That's the next step where it's going to

(03:57):
take some time for them to be there, but robots
will take over for a lot of manual labor. So
when everyone's afraid of the fact that we don't have
a labor for us and we have to allow all
these immigrants in to be able to take the jobs
that Americans don't want, well, you know two things are
gonna happen. One, we are going to have a better

(04:18):
immigration system. We need to. We all know that, and
we do need to allow immigrants in here legally, but
we still have to do what we're doing. First. Number two,
the people with their hands out going for a free
ride because they're able body, but they've been able to
scam the system will no longer all the time be
able to scam the system. So they will have to

(04:39):
find a job. And if they haven't had a job
and they don't have experience, that's what they're gonna have
to do. They're gonna have to find a job with
the job they don't want. Maybe it's agriculture, maybe it's hospitality. Okay,
maybe it's sanitary, maybe who knows what it's gonna be.
But they're gonna have to work in order to get
those checks. They might get subsidized. And that's where I
see us going. That's why I still believe that we're

(05:02):
only in the second inning of a long, long game.
They'll be pulled backs, they'll be strikeouts, but they'll be
going forward. Remember the big growth companies, they're going to
be bigger and bigger and bigger. If you're trying to
play the market with the small companies and saying I
want to buy a stock that's five dollars three dollars
two dollars that going to explode to be one hundred

(05:23):
to two hundred one day. Do it through ETFs for
the most part, that's going to be a lot safer
and you're going to be to be able to diversify
a lot more. If you're in an ETF that has
the big companies and the small companies together, you'll still
participate and make money, but you won't have to see
one of those companies go belly up. If you want
to speculate with some of your money, Okay, I get it.

(05:45):
Some people can handle the risk more. But as we
as we move through this, you've got to be cautious
and careful on where you're putting in, how you're allocating,
and how much you're doing. Allocate the money that you
don't need on an everyday basis. You don't need income

(06:05):
of it. You don't need that you want to be
able to grow it. That money then gets allocated amongst
the portfolio of ets individual stocks that can participate right now.
If you didn't get in yet, you got to go
ahead and dollar cost average, you got to take your time,
and if we got any pullbacks five percent seven you

(06:26):
put in goes ten to fifteen percent, you put more
of it goes twenty, you get your fully get loaded.
But you're going to lose money if the markets go down.
If you're putting in now and you haven't put in
So why go ahead and put it all in at
one time? I wouldn't. I'll do it over time, so
interest rates coming down. Powell finally got on board and
said that, uh, you know, but like he says, it's

(06:48):
it's a risk management deal. He said, risk management. Is
that interesting? What does he mean by risk management? I
understand what risk management is. It's allocations, it's mitigating risk.
It's head you is doing stuff. What is he hedging against?

Speaker 2 (07:03):
What is he doing?

Speaker 1 (07:04):
I mean, I wish you would at least be straightforward
and talk to us about the labor numbers that will
have been all over the board. If I were in
his shoes personally, I would have tried to find out
why our labor numbers were so different from when they
when they first say it, and then when they then
they come back with the uh, the results a month

(07:26):
or two later, when they restated, why is there such
a huge difference, especially in his position that he is
predicating whether or not interest rates should stay the same.
Go down and go up on labor reports is one
of his deal things. Inflations another. I would be livid

(07:49):
if I was him, if I didn't if these reports
weren't at least pretty close from the revisions to what
they first say. That's why President Trump is so upset.
He hasn't known what those leve you know, and he
might have his ego thing and saying, ah, I want
my jobs to be looking great. I want to be
creating jobs. All this stuff he needs to look at.
He's creating an economies, He's creating the people that want

(08:12):
to work higher paying jobs. That's what he's got to
be able to concentrate on. At the end of the day,
lower interestrates is going to help spur this on. Our
debt will be cheaper if our interest rates are cheaper, Okay,
if our debt is cheaper, it'll be better. I just
hope he didn't take too long to get there. If
he has. If we start seeing a fall off, that's
when you'll start seeing the markets come down a little bit,

(08:35):
and those will be a great buying opportunity. It doesn't
seem like it's pulling back at all. It doesn't seem
like it will be sustainable to pull back because there's
so much money six trillion dollars in money market funds.
If interest rates come down, that money will propel the
markets higher because they will be looking for higher returns.
If we get down into the two two and a

(08:56):
half percent again back in money market right because people
are starting to live or four percent, all right, three
and a half percent. Those are the that's where you
look out into the future, that's where you plan, that's
how how you put your portfolios together. But you know,
one of the things I keep emphasizing the people more

(09:17):
than anything is that they need to plan. They need
to have a plan, a financial plan, so they know
where they're going. Seventy five percent of people say they
need to plan. Thirty some one percent actually have one,
which is up from twenty eight percent, So more people
are doing it. But you have to really, really believe
in what you're doing and how you're doing it. We

(09:39):
have a world right now, and at any time you
can wake up and there could be a disaster or
they could be good things like this week, we woke
up and the video gave the Intel five billion dollars,
an Intel that's been sluggish all year, jumped to thirty
two dollars, ended up at thirty but it moved higher
big time. Or we can wake up and there's a

(10:02):
problem in the Middle East, or Russia and Ukraine have
elevated the war. Those are the problems I see right now.
I see those problems because we don't know where it's
going to go. Goal keeps going higher and the defense
stocks keep going higher. That makes me nervous, not just

(10:26):
for investing, but it makes me nervous as an American.
Are we are we preparing for something? Is there a
war gonna be prepared? Is there something going on that
we don't know? You know, I like to see peace.
Trump wants peace. He's trying to get peace, but he's
also been truthful about who doesn't want to have peace.

(10:47):
Hamas doesn't want to have peace, and Russia doesn't want
to have peace. Right now, I'm glad he said that
that we're still on talking terms with China to figure
out something there. And I think at the end of
the day, everyone is pretty much on talking terms. It's
how it comes across on social media and the news
and what goes on. But you know, there are there

(11:09):
are things that are there that you have to be
careful about. But think about this. Let's look at everything
positive right now. So interest rates start coming down, they
continue to come down for the next year or so.
Mortgage prices come down. It opens up the housing market again.

(11:29):
People can stop buying houses, get out of the mortgage.
They have to go into other mortgages which are at
least close. The housing market isn't just about buying and
selling houses. It's all the things that go into new houses,
all the things that go into remodeling, everything that creates
jobs for people. Everything that you need a TV, you

(11:53):
need a refrigerator, you need flooring, you need furniture, you need,
you need workers. That's thanks to the account to me go.
So lower interest rates is a positive. Energy price is
lower is a positive, which allows you to have a
little bit more quote inflation on other things food or sell.

(12:17):
Don't want it, got to get that down a little
bit more. Be nice to get down to under two
percent again on inflation. Be nice to be at one
and a half one and three quarters. I don't know
if we're going to see it, unless say it's a disaster,
and I don't want a disaster. I want to see
people be making more money as prices stay level and

(12:37):
the inflation just stays at at a at a level
that everybody can handle. But if taxes come down, we
can handle a little bit more inflation. And the reason
we'll have inflation is supplying demand, because if taxes come
down and people have more money, they'll spend more. They
spend more. That means the supply goes down, the man

(13:02):
goes up, prices go up. This is how the economy works.
So just don't focus on one thing. Focus on the
whole picture and how it's going to work and how
it's going to work for you. If you're getting ready
to retire or you're retired, is your portfolio going to
keep up with the two or three percent inflation? Are

(13:22):
you going to be able to have your income to
do the things you want to do? And then are
you also going to make sure that your needs are
taken care of first? Then you go into the other areas.
Those are very very important Psychologically, You've got to figure
out who you are, what you are, what you want,
and what you need. Those are very important items that

(13:43):
go into a financial plan. It's not just about how
much money you're going to make or lose. It's not
about how your portfolio is just allocated. It's about what
it's allocated for. It's for what you need and what
you want. It's your lifestyle. Your portfolio, your income reflects
your lifestyle. What kind of lifestyle do you want? No judging.

(14:05):
Some people don't want any lifestyle want other people want
a big lifestyle. Well, if you want a big lifestyle,
you better have the big uh, the the the the
income to handle it if you want to. If you
want a very little lifestyle and you have a whole
bunch of money, then you got to sit there and
think like, Okay, I'm accumulating all this wealth. What am I?
What am I doing with it? What is what is?
What is my cause with this? Am I gonna help others?

(14:26):
Am I gonna give to charities? Or am I just
gonna hold it? Okay? It depends what type of person
you are. There's a lot of people that don't care
about anybody else but themselves, and that's fine too, but
they feel comfortable in the position they're at, which is okay,
that's what you need. So as we walk into this
fourth quarter pretty soon, which is I was expecting to

(14:50):
be really good, but it's gonna be. Are we going
to be really good after a great September? I don't know.
We'll find out. You know, I was looking for sixty
seven hundred on the S and P five hundred. We're
kind of almost there. So are we going to seven
thousand only going back down to six thousand? I gotta
believe both. I gotta believe that we're going to have

(15:15):
some type of decline between now and the end of October,
which will give us the buying opportunity for the rest
of the year. And they're going to the next year.
I'm planning on it being a good year. I plan
on these things coming together. The Black Swan events, we
don't know. We don't know, something else is going to happen.
That's why you have to plan your portfolio for allocation
to be able to weather any storm. You know, valuations

(15:37):
are high, so when something bad happens, markets get torn apart.
When the markets are already down and there's bad news,
they don't go down that much further. Usually that puts
in a bottom. But when the markets are going higher, Okay,
think about this dot com. We kept going higher and higher.
Everyone thought it was too much extreme exuberance. According to

(15:58):
green Span back in ninety having ninety eight, and then
it just kept going higher after he said, it went
up a number twenty thirty percent, but eventually it ended.
You don't know the end. I don't know the end.
I do know this, when it gets evaluations of too
much and we're in the middle of the game, I
don't have a problem taking some money off the table.
I have no problems if the stocks I have have

(16:20):
run tremendously. I'm saying forty to fifty hundred percent to
take a little money off the table. But if you're
allocated correctly and you always keep to whatever your your
rules are of two percent, three percent, five percent, and
the stock keeps jumping on you, you can take it. Still
keep a higher percentage, but take some of it back.

(16:43):
The best thing you can do is say, man, I
would have made more, so much more money off there,
so much more. Didn me didn't still make money? You
could have made so much more. But in the same
sentence you could have said, I could have lost so
much more too if it went down, And then you
look for other opportunities. It's you know, and everyone says
opportunity is opportunity where they come. I said, well, if

(17:04):
you think over the last couple of years, Boeing was
an opportunity. It was down in one hundred and fifty
dollars one hundred and sixty dollars range, and all of
a sudden, it's two something now, right, Boeing, Boeing. Boeing
can't get out of their own way. Stocks jumped over
one hundred points. Intel couldn't get out of their own way.
That's one I kept talking about, I should buy. I
did not buy. I should have I didn't because every

(17:27):
time I got to twenty five and went back to
nineteen twenty, just hung out there. Thought it was dead money.
Boy was wrong. Jumped to thirty two. Now it's about thirty.
But it was an opportunity in a stock and a
good company that wasn't there IBM a year and a
half ago. I kept saying, IBM looks so good in
the one forty one sixty range. Jumped all the way
up to high two hundreds. There will be another company.

(17:50):
There will be another stock. If you want to look
at one, it's United Healthcare. Well, United health Care out
of its own way eventually, yes, but it's not going
to just be them on a separate comp but he's
going to be the entire industry is going to have
to figure out how they're going to deal with lowing
prices for Americans. That's how that's where the problem is

(18:13):
with just in one company, but in that industry, in
that realm, United Healthcare is probably the one that has
the most upside because it's gotten beaten up. Once they
get through all their problems, but if their problems keep expanding,
you probably got to say, you know what, there's a
real problem here. I'm going to get out. But there's
enough people in there buying it that are comfortable that

(18:35):
a big time investor is that you can say, okay,
I can put a little money into speculation that this
is the next one that can come back to interesting
enough to A lot of the quantum computer companies have
been doing outrageously good in the last few weeks. I
mean money just piling into them, I think because with

(18:55):
the idea of ingistrates going down, the small the small
cap funds are getting a whole bunch of money because
when interest rates cut, that's where the money is. And
guess what they're buying. The funds are buying them when
the money runs out, the probably going to stall and
maybe get hurt a little bit if they come back.
So don't get so excited, all right, be allocated. So

(19:19):
been kind of on a different level, a social level.
What's going on in the world right now. We see
it a lot of things, and this is just my
commentary on it. You know, I always believe the pendulum
swings one way to the other. When the markets go
down too much, they swing back, and then they go
up too much and they swing back. Well, we're seeing
it on a social basis also right now, and it's

(19:43):
good to see a lot of people more more people
say I'm getting on social media. I can't take it
anymore because what's happening is that they don't know what
to believe or what not to believe. And you know what,
at the end of the day, people need to start
making their own decisions and what they really believe and
and self reflect on all that, because that's that's very important.

(20:04):
And obviously Charlie Kirk's death has made people realize and
think more what they believe in and what they don't
believe in, and a lot of people that are making
fun of it, especially on network TVs and things like
that are getting the show's canceled, And of course there's

(20:24):
an outrage on the other side that says, well, there's
no freedom of speech, and then the other side saying, well,
freedom of speech doesn't mean it should be hate speech.
We don't want to have hate speech, We don't want
to have this, we don't have that. So where do
we go with all this? Well, at the end of
the day, he need free speech. But people have to

(20:45):
realize words have consequences, and if you work for an employer,
contracts have con consequences. But the ironic part, without going
into all the things that happen for how many years
did the left cancel the right for whatever they were doing,
is saying how many years did the left cancel companies?

(21:07):
All right? Say you can't do this, you can't do that,
cancel them, go and strike. Don't buy this, don't buy that,
which what they're trying to do right now with Disney
and all in ESPN. Don't buy it, don't dance to streaming. Well,
who do you hurt by not getting it is you're
hurting yourself. If you're a sports guy, you're hurting yourself.
If you're on anything else, you're hurting yourself, right, that's
what it comes down to. You don't want to do it,

(21:29):
don't do it. That's capitalism, you know. But when you
look at the shows, the liberal shows are not making
money for people anymore. And I didn't even realize this
until I started realizing the FCC. Yeah, they give out
the deals and that they're supposed to be both sides,
but I did not really realize that if you have

(21:49):
a non news show, okay, you're supposed to have people
from both sides being able to be on that show.
And through the whole election, they didn't do that, you know.
And I'm sure like if you look at Fox, everyone's
gonna say, well, they're more right. But you know what,
they always have somebody on left. They always have somebody

(22:12):
on left to be able to give their point of view.
CNN is that new show. They do the same thing.
They have somebody on the right to do it. Do
they get shut down on both sides? Yeah, they do
a little bit. I get that, but at least they
get a point of view out that's on the opposite side.
But these other shows, these you know, if you want
to look at it and say, well, that's not a
you know NBC, the comedian shows, they're not they're not news, right,

(22:35):
But if you're gonna talk about one side, pots to
talk about the other side, make fun of one side,
make fun of the other side. And for so long
it's just been the media has been just one sided. Well,
now someone's doing about it and the same you're taking
away free speech, but it was okay with their free
speech to go ahead and get rid of the other side,
cancel the other side. Think about how many people got

(22:58):
canceled through because the rumors or through Facebook posts or
whatever it was. So they don't like to spend the
pendulum swinging back. But the biggest one is is that
they do not want to believe that what was happening
on college campuses was hate speech towards Jewish people. That's

(23:20):
hate speech, and the colleges allowed it until somebody like
this administration came in and said, fine, you're gonna do that,
no more money. People on outrage. Why should they be
on campus, not allowing conservative people on there to just
even be able to talk. But they can have people
on there protesting and saying horrible things and hate speech
and kill the Jews and kill everybody. But that's okay,

(23:43):
it's not okay, And what's good now is somebody is
in power to make it where it's even. On both sides.
We don't need hate speech on any level. We do
not need people getting assassinated on any level. We need
more help for people with mental health on both sides.
Need people to go ahead and understand we need to

(24:03):
get along. And just because you don't do. You disagree
with someone doesn't give you the right to kill them.
And when you disagree with someone, everyone should start having
conversation as a stead of arguments. We'll be back. We
appreciate you listening. This has been the Money out of show.
We got a lot more to do.

Speaker 3 (24:25):
Good morning, welcome back to the Money Matter Show. We
appreciate Dean dropping by and putting his monologue out there.
We all enjoy that words of wisdom, and he had
a couple of appointments.

Speaker 1 (24:35):
He's on.

Speaker 3 (24:35):
I've got Dylan Greenberg here with me. I've got Sebastian Borsini,
I'm Dave Sherwood. Toddy is in Berlin, Germany running the
Berlin Marathon, which would he would be done now at
eight o'clock on Sunday morning or eight thirty on Sunday morning,
he would be done because they're way ahead of us.

Speaker 4 (24:52):
Yeah, it's like ten pm there.

Speaker 2 (24:53):
Yeah, he's probably in bed.

Speaker 3 (24:54):
But anyway, we hope he did well and that's quite
a quite a feat, so we're excited for him. You know,
there are certain weeks dealing that have a theme, like
when Nvidia is going to report their earnings. That's all
that really anybody pays any attention to that week, is
that earnings report. Yep, we had that this week. With

(25:15):
the Federal Reserve coming out, and of course with the
pressure from Trump and the jobs market, the employment market
not looking and great, they had every excuse in the
world to drop interest rations and they did so. But
that was the focus. It happened on Wednesday, and the
reaction to it was kind of a yawn, And then
Thursday morning we wake up boom, new all time highs

(25:37):
for all of the major industries.

Speaker 5 (25:38):
Yeah, it seemed like it took people with an overnight
cycle to realize that they cut them. And then they're
saying I think part of it was because they were
talking about that they weren't going to cut more for
this year.

Speaker 4 (25:47):
Maybe in twenty six.

Speaker 5 (25:49):
The sentiment was a little slower than I think some
investors had initially thought, and they only did a twenty
five basis points. Some people thought they would do fifty
basis points, which is a half a percent, So maybe
that was why it was delayed.

Speaker 4 (26:01):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (26:01):
Both great reasons and the interesting interestingly, this is not
unusual for the week. Short term interest rates were higher.
Not unusual because what happens is the excitement about maybe
is gonna be a fifty basis point cut and the
boy bonds are really gonna take off, and I got

(26:22):
a load up on bonds, and then it's a twenty
five basis point cut and everybody on and saying we're
gonna sell these bonds because they're not gonna jump right.

Speaker 4 (26:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (26:31):
So actually the two year treasury went from three five
five to three five seven. The ten year treasury went
from four oh seven to four to one three, so,
which is very slight. But people I heard a number
of people over the last two weeks going, well, I
want to wait until after the Fed cuts rates, because
then rates are really good. No, that's not how it works.
The market's predictive market tries to predict what the Fed

(26:54):
is going to do. They predicted twenty five basis points
very accurately, but there was there were people out there,
like you said, that thought fifty.

Speaker 5 (27:02):
Well, in a sense, that's why the markets jumped up
so much the previous week and two because of the
jobs report, like you were saying, was weaker than expected
and all that. So then investors got excited already about
the idea of the FED cutting rates, So that was
already priced in after those announcements and those reports. In
a sense, that was already pricing before the Fed actually
even said anything.

Speaker 3 (27:21):
Absolutely, it is clearly the tail wagging the dog. Generally,
by the time they decided to do something, the market,
the free market has already done that.

Speaker 4 (27:30):
Yeah, it seems like the Fed's always behind.

Speaker 2 (27:33):
Yeah, there's the tail. They're the tail wagging the dog.
You know.

Speaker 3 (27:36):
The thirty year mortgage rate did drop to six point
three to nine nationally.

Speaker 2 (27:39):
I think it's a little.

Speaker 3 (27:40):
Bit lower locally, which is the lowest since October, and
it caused refinance applications to jump sixty percent. Oh yeah,
I was thinking about that last night. Does that mean
you went from ten refinances to sixteen, because that would
be sixty percent, right, And it gave me the number
they just said sixty percent. I don't know if that's

(28:01):
meaningful or not. The interesting part about that, though, the
dollar amount of those refinanced applications was the highest in history.

Speaker 4 (28:12):
Interesting.

Speaker 3 (28:12):
Yeah, And of course, I guess if you think in
terms of what's happened to real estate prices, that shouldn't
be a shock the real estate prices, you know, during
the pandemic and after really a sword. Yeah, and so
I guess it probably shouldn't be surprising.

Speaker 4 (28:28):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (28:28):
And I mean, I'm sure those are people who were
buying in the sevens a year or two ago, so
now they're happy with six. But you still got a
lot of people out there that are have the three
percent interest rates where they don't want to move, or
maybe they start to move now because they're going If
the interest rates get below six, you might start seeing
more housing activity because the people that are saying, I
want to keep it forever because there was a three

(28:49):
percent rate and all the race we're doing, we're going up.
Now that they're dropping, even though they're still going to
be higher, it might be time for them. They might say, Okay,
it's time we can actually move because they're going to
get more for their house won't be so bad to them.
So it could be an interesting time in the housing
market where you could see more activities start.

Speaker 3 (29:04):
It's kind of what we're hearing from our friends in
the real estate lending businesses that it really needs to
be blow six to really get things cranking. Yeah, and
I don't know that if that means get the housing
market cranking, but it certainly would get the refinance market cranking.

Speaker 4 (29:19):
Oh for sure.

Speaker 3 (29:20):
Well, my wife's sister is lives in Louisville, Kentucky, and
she has a seven percent mortgage. She and her husband, right,
he didn't marry each other's two of them, two brains
thinking this thing through. Right, seven percent mortgage that she's
had for twenty years, went through the whole pandemic race,
dropping down to two percent. Did nothing, did nothing?

Speaker 4 (29:39):
What was the reason?

Speaker 2 (29:40):
I don't have a clue.

Speaker 4 (29:42):
Just didn't get around due I asked that.

Speaker 3 (29:45):
Yeah, we just didn't do it. Yeah, okay, it went
from seven to two back to seven.

Speaker 4 (29:51):
You could have cut their right in half and you're.

Speaker 2 (29:53):
Sitting there, Yeah, they could have cut their freight.

Speaker 4 (29:54):
And a half not more.

Speaker 2 (29:55):
Wow, it's unbelievable. This, you know.

Speaker 3 (29:57):
September we know is the worst month for the of
the year for stocks, by far, the worst month of
the year for stock. No other month is even close
to September.

Speaker 2 (30:07):
And here we are.

Speaker 3 (30:08):
New all time highs for the doll for the S
and P for the NASDAC, and this week for the
Russell two thousand, all time high.

Speaker 5 (30:18):
Yeah, I mean in the Russell two thousand of the
small cap companies, and that makes sense. When you start
dropping rates, it's cheaper for them to borrow money, so
they're probably going to start increasing that and that made
I mean, there's a lot of money that went into
small caps this past week at the end of week,
especially in quantum stocks. They're all small cap companies, and
they were up fifteen to twenty thirty percent over the

(30:38):
last two days on Thursday and Friday after the news
because now you're thinking that's the future and like this
is where AI five years ago is, like what Quantita
is now, where it's in the infancy stage and it's
just getting going, just getting popularity. But it's the next
step in the AI revolution. But the companies are small
and they need to borrow a lot of money. So
now that the rates are dropping, people are excited and
throwing money into these small caps, and that's why Russell

(31:00):
two thousand companies and the Russell two thousand index in
all the time high.

Speaker 3 (31:03):
Finally, I think I think you're spot on that that
that the quantum computing is kind of seen as the
next AI. So if you missed AI, maybe you ought
to be looking at quantum computing. Also, there was some
real meat to it. Thursday, io n Q signed an
agreement with the Department of Energy to advance the development
of quantum technologies in space. It actually was a was

(31:25):
a real contract for that company. Yeah, for that company,
and of course that rallied all of the other quantum
computing stocks. The quantum ETF is now up seventy five
percent in the last twelve months.

Speaker 2 (31:38):
That's pretty good.

Speaker 5 (31:39):
Yeah, it is pretty seventy an exciting industry to be in.
It's very volatile though, because it is a newer idea.

Speaker 2 (31:46):
Is volatile and it's trying.

Speaker 5 (31:47):
Yeah, And if you're not trying to pick one stock
and you just want to be in the sector. By
the ETF, it's qt um yep is the is the
main quantum ETF W And.

Speaker 3 (31:57):
I think whenever you're working into something like that, into
a space like that where you're really not sure who
the winners are going to be. That's a great way
to go to that, to that end, to that end,
and it's just just because the kind of dovetails with that. Friday,
we learned that Grayscale, an ETF company, has come out
with the very first crypto ETF that has multiple coins

(32:23):
in it.

Speaker 2 (32:24):
Its particular top five coins, isn't it? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (32:26):
Top five coins. The ninety percent of all cryptocurrency is
these top five coins with the Ether and Solano and
Bitcoin and XRP probably would be the other one. I
can't think of the others, but there's five of them. Yeah,
So this this is a brand new product. If you
are interested in the crypto space, that is a great

(32:48):
way to play it in my opinion.

Speaker 4 (32:49):
And what's that ticker again?

Speaker 2 (32:51):
Ticker is g d.

Speaker 3 (32:53):
LC George Dog Larry Charlie. Again it bundles them all Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Soalana,
and Cardinal Cardno.

Speaker 2 (33:03):
Top five, it's not five.

Speaker 3 (33:05):
So if you want exposure to crypto beyond just bitcoin.
And there have been periods dying where ethereum outperform Bitcoin
rather significantly, and there have been periods weren't underperformed. Well,
if you want a and we're not recommending this because
we don't know your risk tolerance, we don't your investment objectives,
we don't know if this is something. But if you

(33:27):
are investing in that crypto space, if you're a home gamer,
then want something that's kind of an interesting ETF. We
all looked at it Friday morning, when oh, that's kind
of interesting.

Speaker 5 (33:36):
It started trading on Friday. But it's up forty percent
for the year from what we saw on our screens
because it had all the stocks and with that were
already trading publicly, so it has been doing well this
year from the stocks that they put in there. Underline,
I think they did a back testing. I think it
has to be back tested for your to date.

Speaker 4 (33:52):
That's the only way it does.

Speaker 5 (33:53):
Because if you're a single stock and you went public
this year, say like COREW even Circle, they don't have
your to dates on our screen that we look at.
But if you have companies that have been trading for years,
you just put them into an ETF. You can figure
out the year to date. I will say though, that
has a Usually ETFs have low expense ratios as a
point six expense ratio, which is, yeah.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
That's pretty cheap for a grey scale it.

Speaker 5 (34:15):
Is, but it's still pretty high for an ETF. It is,
it is, but you can make sense. I mean, they're
probably gonna be pretty active in that ETF with the crypto.

Speaker 3 (34:21):
And if I'm if I'm trying to make seventy five percent,
if i have to give point six to somebody to
help me, be okay.

Speaker 4 (34:26):
With that kind of okay?

Speaker 2 (34:27):
Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 5 (34:28):
And that's the thing too when you're thinking of mutual
funds and expense ratios, because neutral funds tend to have
higher expense ratios and that's because you got a fund
manager to pay. They're more active in it. It's not
so passive like an ETF is. If they can out
beat it the market and do what their perspectives are saying,
then you can justify saying, okay, it is good to
invest in this. I mean, there's that one Bill Gross

(34:49):
was Pimpco. He found a Pimpco and like for years
he was the bond king and they had all these
fixed income ETFs, and I mean Pimpco is still around.
He's not with the company anymore, but through two thousand
through two thousand and seven. He's the only guy that
had mutual funds that beat the market. When the markets
were down, he was still up because of how they
figured out a pimpco to find money, find positive returns

(35:12):
in anything that they were doing, so they were able
to have a whole total return mutual fund that would
return something even when the marks were going down a bit.
So stuff like that that you can think of, it's
worth paying maybe a little extra in your mind.

Speaker 4 (35:25):
That's how you can justify it.

Speaker 5 (35:27):
If the mutual fund goes down and they have a
two percent expense ratio, you might not want to be
in it.

Speaker 2 (35:32):
Exactly, Exactly. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (35:35):
I always said, do you want to somebody that makes
thirty percent a year and charges you ten percent? Or
do you want somebody makes five percent a year and
charges you one percent?

Speaker 4 (35:42):
Exactly.

Speaker 3 (35:43):
We'll be back right after this break with more of
the Money Meta Show.

Speaker 6 (35:47):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Bor, seeing him here with Dylan Greenberg, Dean Greenberg,
and David Sherwood. Before we're gonna go any further, I
have a little disclaimer. The show sponsored by the Greenberg
Financial Group, and you can listen on seven ninety Canistee
or iHeart Radio scusses different investment products and strategies, and
every products and strategy have some type of an inherent risk,
and we strongly encourage our listeners to understand the risk

(36:07):
to determine whether to buy seller hold. Show has been
on air for over thirty years. The green Brik Financial
Group is registered with the SEC. Visit our website at
green break Financial dot com for some more information. It
is an interesting time in the market. There's a lot
of high flying items out there, stocks out there, great sectors.
Be careful, be careful. I mean, look at the nuclear
ETF for example, NLR that we follow. I think I

(36:31):
saw two days this week it was up over three percent,
and that's just an ETF dave.

Speaker 3 (36:36):
The last time I looked at it was around one fifteen.
I think I looked at it was one thirty.

Speaker 6 (36:40):
Eight, right, and that one fifteen was from the little
pullback back from one twenty five.

Speaker 1 (36:44):
Right.

Speaker 2 (36:44):
So just go, go, go, and the market.

Speaker 3 (36:48):
The one thing I will say from my experience during
this don't fight the tape. In other words, this is
not a time to be shorting things, buying inverse ETFs. Yes,
the market will pause, probably roll over at some point here.
And when I say roll over, pull back five ten
percent whatever, Yes, that would be a time if you

(37:11):
can time it perfectly. But just don't fight the tape.
The tape is telling you this market wants to go higher.
It's just unrelenting. Valuations are stretched. Every metric I look
at says you know, sell, sell, sell, and yet every
single day higher higher, higher.

Speaker 4 (37:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (37:30):
I know we hit all time highs, but I think
the last couple of weeks. It is something to think
about though, if you are getting a little nervous with
how overbought this might be, or how high these valuations
might be. Going with stocks, if you have a bunch
of individual stocks or even ETFs now that they're up
seventy five percent for the year, If you have over
concentrated in one position because it's gone up so much
this year and you are getting nervous, it might be done.

Speaker 4 (37:53):
Just look at it.

Speaker 5 (37:53):
Maybe take some off the table, take some profit off
the table, and that's your way of hedging, rather than
buying in verse ETFs or anything like that. Just raise
cash and you bring back You don't sell at all
all the positions. You just sell some bring cash. Then
at least you're feeling good that you did take some
off the table in case the markets do turn, but
you are still participating the marketing case the market goes up,
because you don't know. We don't know markets. I mean,

(38:15):
there's millions of investors out there thinking along the same
lines and stuff like that, but you never know exactly
what the market's going to do.

Speaker 3 (38:23):
I remember listening to back to one of the Dean's
monologues from just a couple of weeks ago, and it
was right after we had gotten the European trade deal,
right after the Chinese trade deal, and it seemed like
pretty much all of the good news that was coming
was in the market. The S and P was a
sixty four hundred, and I remember Dean intelligently saying, I

(38:45):
don't know how much more upside there is because the
good news is out. We're just we just keep going.

Speaker 6 (38:51):
I mean, coming into this week, my thought process was
we already priced in the twenty five basis point cut, right,
the market's gone up dramatically in the past month. This
is already priced thin. So I was kind of thinking
by the rumor sell the news typing or deal as
soon as the Fed cut comes, and we just kept
pushing higher after that.

Speaker 5 (39:09):
Like you always say, all news was good news at
one point, it was, even though in July all that
news was baked into the prices, into the markets already.
It was already bought in there, and it's already thinking
about it. Even when bad news came out about jobs
and stuff like that, it was good news because investors
got happy that they're going to cut rates. So it's
all justified, justifying even bad news at that time, and

(39:29):
that makes for a market that can just take off
and run.

Speaker 3 (39:31):
Such a such a good example this week where you
had the Fed dropping interstraates a quarter and it's kind
of everybody.

Speaker 2 (39:37):
Kind of was yelling a little bit.

Speaker 3 (39:39):
There was a little bit of disappointment out there, and
it wasn't fifty basis points, and so you saw the
interest rates rise a little bit. The market was flat
that day, and then the next morning away we go.

Speaker 2 (39:48):
Ye.

Speaker 3 (39:48):
There were a couple of earn aage reports and and
if you have a good earnage report, you're just gonna
explode higher. And if there's any kind of news regarding tariffs, explode.
Everything's pushing higher this point and I'm not. It's not
a good time to be going all in. Not a
good time to be doing that, going all in. No
after you've had this kind of a run, and.

Speaker 6 (40:09):
You heard Dean talk about it in the monologue. I mean,
if you were you've if you've been sitting out and
you're finally thinking, Okay, fine, I'm going to jump into
the market. Don't go in all at once. That's not smart.
Here at all time high, its dollar cost average over
a you know, a couple month period. Going back to
the ETF, the NLR, though, I want to talk about Oaklow.
That stock is insane. It's gone up this year five

(40:31):
and wow, this last week. You know what his performance was,
Dave for the week for the week, seventy percent. They
went up fifty five dollars a share, started trading the
week at on Monday at seventy nine eighty one dollars
a share, finished the week at one thirty six.

Speaker 5 (40:45):
And that's a big reason why the NLR ETF just
jumped out raise because that's a big position in oakloh
small margular reactors.

Speaker 3 (40:53):
We got retail sales numbers during the week. They were good,
up extensive a percent versus expected two tests one percent,
But there was an interesting number I saw. And nobody
cares about this, right because heavy truck sales. Now those
are semis truckts weighing more than fourteen thousand pounds, So
we're talking about semis. They've dropped to levels not seen

(41:14):
in four years. So according to the ES Bureau of
Economic Analysts, the volume is down more than fifteen percent
in August compared with a year ago, twenty one percent
below the same month in twenty twenty three. So the
sale of semis is dropping pretty noticeably. That is generally

(41:34):
a canary in the coal mine. One of the canaries
in the coal mines slowed down. Yeah, the economy, and
the economy is clearly slowly. The Fed doesn't raise, doesn't
lower interest rates when things are great, right, They lower
interest rates because they see trouble, and the trouble they
see is leave me alone. Donald number one, I think frankly.

(41:58):
But the jobs market and steadily softening over the last
few months, and uh, yeah, you can make a case
that the economy is slowly.

Speaker 6 (42:07):
I think if we had seen the fifty basis point
cut on Wednesday, the market, I don't know how they
would have reacted. I wouldn't have felt good about it.

Speaker 3 (42:15):
I would think the market would sell off on that.
That's kind of boy, they see something we don't see.
This is scary stuff.

Speaker 5 (42:21):
Yeah, and this is it seems to be an ultra
cautious fed right now. It's been for the last year.
So twenty five basis points seems about right.

Speaker 2 (42:31):
Yes, I think so, which.

Speaker 5 (42:32):
Is good because then if they did do like you said,
fifty basis points, then everybody starts second guessing their idea.

Speaker 3 (42:38):
Oil was up thirty cents on the week to sixty
two eighty gold another all time high, up thirty seven
dollars to thirty six to eighty three.

Speaker 6 (42:45):
Fifth straight weekly game there, I think. Yeah, it just
keeps going higher every week.

Speaker 2 (42:49):
Bitcoined down one percent.

Speaker 3 (42:50):
And the gold thing, we we've become convinced that it's
sovereign's buying the gold. And why, I don't know. You
want to think of what nefarious thing could be going on.
It could be an effort on your mind.

Speaker 2 (43:07):
The dollar.

Speaker 5 (43:08):
They're trying to make it the gold standard again, but
not have the dollar be connected to it.

Speaker 2 (43:11):
Yeah, I don't know that.

Speaker 3 (43:12):
I don't know, no, no, and I and yet I
don't see much interest amongst our clients in gold. So
maybe that's because our clients are stock and bond people
and not you know, precious metals people. Maybe those people
are doing their thing aside outside of the Wall Street.

Speaker 5 (43:30):
We've had a few clients that are interested in the
gold and how we invest in it, like how we
would invest in it, But also a lot of clients
are more interested in AI. They're more interested in what
will the future bring and how are those expected returns
rather than gold. I think gold is known and it's
just not as interesting to a lot of people as AI,
even though it has been doing well for the last
two years. I think this is interesting to people well, and.

Speaker 3 (43:51):
As steadily higher and you make a very good point.
As steadily higher as gold has moved, it pales in
comparison to AI.

Speaker 2 (44:00):
Nuclear quantum, I.

Speaker 5 (44:01):
Mean, anything connected with the seventy semiconductors, rare earth minerals
because of what they do with that, such anything that's
connected to chips and AI. It's all going absolutely ridiculously
higher because that's the future, and people are trying to
pick I mean, I obviously is it the same for
you you were working in this industry in two thousand
to two thousand and three. Is it the same idea

(44:23):
of like, are people just throwing money at this industry
and eventually these companies that aren't actually that good are
going to blow it up and we're going to see
a downturn like the dot com bubble? Or is it
not as bad as you've seen from.

Speaker 2 (44:34):
The dot com bubble?

Speaker 3 (44:34):
No, late ninety the late nineties early two thousand was
was a wild West. I mean there was companies coming
public every day, multiple companies, no sales, no earnings, had
an idea, you know, and and people would bid the
stack up to one hundred bucks and it was just
it was insane.

Speaker 6 (44:51):
But I mean I could say the same thing about
maybe some nuclear companies that have absolutely no proof of concept,
absolutely no dollars behind, you know, no revenue whatsoever, earning money.
I know, it's not artificial intelligence that we were just
talking about, but I mean.

Speaker 5 (45:05):
Is there is, But it's part of it because I
mean AI companies are getting a lot of energy and
that's part of this whole new craze is that in
nuclear is thought to be the energy source for these
data centers, for these new AI revolutions, so that might
be a thing where there are coming public but are
they all good companies?

Speaker 4 (45:21):
You don't know until after the fact.

Speaker 3 (45:24):
Yeah, so I think the question you ask is are
there similarly there are don't say is it similar?

Speaker 2 (45:30):
No?

Speaker 3 (45:31):
Are there similarities? Sure, there's a few similarities, I mean,
if you wanted to nitpick. But overall, the valuation of
the market is much more, much firmer footing than it
was back in the late nineties early two thousand.

Speaker 2 (45:45):
Are we do for a pullback? Absolutely?

Speaker 3 (45:47):
Yeah, five to ten percent pullback could come at any time.
Probably need a black Swan event at this point because everybody,
not everybody, A lot of people are convinced that that
Trump's policies, uh, Trump's approach uh. The UH combined with
AI is and quantum is like the perfect star.

Speaker 2 (46:08):
And then may be right, Well, we do know that.

Speaker 6 (46:10):
I mean, if we want to still maintain our world
power status, we need to win the AI race. And
the only one that's really there is China. That's only competitor.

Speaker 3 (46:19):
I would say, yeah, that, and and quantum probably even
more so.

Speaker 6 (46:23):
Oh for sure, for sure, the.

Speaker 3 (46:24):
One whomever is able to capture quantum computing can figure
it out.

Speaker 2 (46:29):
So it makes sense that we're going to have a
real upper hand, and.

Speaker 6 (46:32):
It makes sense that we're going to keep, you know,
piling money into the industries because we do want to
win that race. If Oracle is going to be a lens,
oracles earning support last week is going to be a
lens of what's to come. Continue buying these AI stocks.
I mean there, what's it called over in Albine, Texas
Stargate the.

Speaker 5 (46:48):
Stargate five hundred billion dollars into the industry.

Speaker 6 (46:51):
I mean that's just well.

Speaker 3 (46:52):
Now this past week, Oracles supposedly give me one of
the companies runt of TikTok.

Speaker 5 (46:57):
Yeah, yeah, they're bringing like TikTok and from the way,
the US is going to hold it just through Oracle.

Speaker 2 (47:03):
Right right, So TikTok becomes the US.

Speaker 3 (47:06):
The US portion of TikTok is going to invout Oracle, according.

Speaker 2 (47:10):
To news reports last week.

Speaker 3 (47:12):
So there's no it's not surprising that that particular stock
has really been strong, but overall market is very frothy,
a lot of speculation, but I would argue nothing like
the late nineties early two thousand. We'll be back with
more than money matter show after this break. Thanks for
taking time out of your Sunday morning to join us.

Speaker 5 (47:32):
Welcome back to the second hour of the Money Matter Show.
I'm here with Sebastian Borsini, Dave Sherwood. Didn Greenberg did
his monologue on the out. He had to go do
some meetings this afternoon. But I'm Dylan Greenberg and we're
going to bring you the rest of this show. There's
a lot of stuff that went on last week. I mean,
for those of you just tune in and we were
talking about the Fed cutting rates, markets going higher. When
is it going to be turning over? At some point

(47:53):
you expect the pullback. You just don't know exactly when.
But I mean last week, the doll was up one percent,
the S and P was up one point two percent, NAZAC,
which is tech heavy, was up two point two percent,
and the small cap Russell two thousand was up one
point nine percent. Equal weighted SMP, though interestingly enough, was
up point one percent. So even though the SMP five
hundred was up one point two percent, equal weighted was

(48:14):
barely up. So market as a whole not up so much,
but tech.

Speaker 6 (48:18):
Was a lot of that money rotating, and like you
said earlier, into those small cap companies. You know, there's
still a lot of rooms to run there. Looking at it,
it's yeah, ten percent, you're to dates compared to a
QQQ and NASDAC that's up seventeen percent. You know there's
still room there.

Speaker 1 (48:31):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (48:31):
And the idea of that is that the FED lower
interest rates, So now it's those small cap companies can
borrow money easier. And when you're a small cap company,
you are more often in the finding phase of your company,
of your investing, investing, investing, not making profit. You're not
the stable company, so you're trying to grow as much
as possible, as fast as possible, and for that you
need to borrow money. It's cheaper now. That's why people

(48:52):
threw money into the small cap stocks.

Speaker 2 (48:55):
Yeah, it is.

Speaker 3 (48:57):
I want to address something that that was all over
the news this past weekend and the left has their
heads spinning around the Jimmy Kimmel, the whole Jimmy Kimmel
being pulled from ABC for inappropriate comments regarding Charlie Kirk's assassination,
which is true if you if you know what he said,
If you don't know what he said, google it. It's

(49:18):
it's pretty bizarre. But the Left is the left is
going nuts about censorship. And again, these are the same
people who were thrilled when Tucker Carlson got pulled off
the air. Right, Yeah, people are freaking out about censorship.
They pretty happy when Tucker Carlson got pulled off the air.

Speaker 4 (49:33):
Yeah. I mean, it's a lot of hit. There's always
it's always just a hypocrisy of it.

Speaker 3 (49:37):
And Trump Trump just loves poking the bear. Yep, he
loves poking the bear. He's been not talking about, you know,
not a third term design, but he's talking about pulling,
pulling broadcasting licenses right with people that don't agree with him.

Speaker 2 (49:52):
I mean, he's just poking the bear.

Speaker 5 (49:53):
Well yeah, and I mean I will say the only
I think the difference with that is like that the
FCC chair came out and said, like, in a sense
urged ABC to pull Jimmy Kimmel's show or suspend it.
And when you got that, that's you're walking a fine
line of government interference with free speech. And that's why
some people are mad about the First Amendment being in
fringe right there.

Speaker 3 (50:13):
Right, I think the real reason is ABC is in
a merger agreement with a private equity and private actors
said you got to get him off there. They told
him that, so probably before the FCC got involved.

Speaker 2 (50:27):
So it's all about the money.

Speaker 5 (50:28):
I feel like if that's the FCC didn't say anything,
this wouldn't be as big as a deal because then
it's just been ABC pulling them. Whether it's private equity,
Disney's their parent company, who cares, because then it's a
private company taking off a host because they don't like
what he said, or they just think it's not good
for their company brand.

Speaker 3 (50:45):
I only brought up because I want to clarify that
the FCC is specifically restricted from censoring broadcast content or
revoking licenses based on political bias or speech the government dislike,
and they are specifically prohibited from that. So the things
that Trump is saying are it is specifically prohibited from doing.

(51:08):
Threats to pull licenses over negative news coverage are typically
dismissed on First Amendment grounds. Furthermore, well, networks like ABC, NBC,
and CBS, they don't even have SCC licenses. They own
and operate individual local stations that do well. I mean,
that's a big part of what we're not gonna pull
ABC that we're in.

Speaker 5 (51:28):
Then if they're just saying that to say at the
SEC and Trump and all, why you gotta say it,
You're just gonna piss off half the people in the
country and just make this whole thing go crazy again.

Speaker 2 (51:36):
I think it's just Trump and Trump, That's what I'm saying.
Why do you got to say that.

Speaker 3 (51:39):
Most of us try to avoid conflict, but honestly, seems
like he thrives on it.

Speaker 2 (51:43):
Yeah, and whatever.

Speaker 6 (51:44):
If I agree, secilly move like you do. I believe
in free speech and you got to protect that. But
let's look back and think about when Trump was disbanded
from Twitter. And I understand that it's a little bit different.

Speaker 4 (51:58):
He was a president.

Speaker 6 (51:59):
He wasn't actually trying to use this power to come
down on this agency or ABC for example. But who
started the cancel culture?

Speaker 2 (52:07):
Yeah? Yeah.

Speaker 3 (52:09):
The other thing that I want to talk to priestly
about is is gun controlled. There's been a lot to
talk about gun control since the assassination. And note this,
if not a single additional assault weapon were sold, there's
already thirty million of them in the hands of US citizens.
Thirty million, So I'm not sure what's one for every

(52:31):
ten people one assault weapon in the United states for
every ten people. Add to that, the states with the
highest and cities with the highest gun violence rates are
the ones with the strongest gun control laws.

Speaker 2 (52:46):
How does that make any sense?

Speaker 5 (52:47):
Because the people that are good, people that want a
gun can't get them, So criminals will get guns regardless
of what the rules are. I think that's always what
it is. Yeah, just I mean, it's prohibition era. You
couldn't get alcohol. Who got alcohol? Criminals and they sold
it to people. People who want guns are gonna get guns.
If they want guns. There's a whole black market for it.

Speaker 3 (53:07):
Trump was busy and excited. I want a couple of
things I wanted to coming on. He came out and
tweeted a belief that regulators should allow companies to report.

Speaker 2 (53:16):
Semi annually rather than quarterly. You got some on that, delling.

Speaker 4 (53:20):
No, I was just going to talk about it. We
brought it up first. Yeah, I mean I saw.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
That he floated this trouble in for the first time
back in twenty eighteen, and it.

Speaker 2 (53:26):
Really didn't have any air.

Speaker 3 (53:27):
So semi annual reports were very common up until nineteen seventy.
In nineteen seventy, the SEC mandated quarterly reports as a
way to add transparency. And I get that quarterly reports
do lead to more short term management decisions, there is
no doubt about that. But is the increased transparency worth

(53:50):
the cost? That's what you have to ask yourself, and
the SEC honestly is reviewing the matter. Yeah, they've proposed
a rule that would allow companies to report semi annually
or quarterly.

Speaker 4 (54:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (54:03):
I mean they said it's up to the company on
how they want to do it.

Speaker 2 (54:06):
Yeah, so that's just that's the proposal. Yeah, that's not
a rule.

Speaker 6 (54:10):
What do you guys think about that?

Speaker 2 (54:12):
I think that that.

Speaker 5 (54:13):
Makes sense, but I mean it's gonna be I don't
think all the companies are going to do it. But
if you're like they're saying, if you do semi annually,
it focuses more on long term growth. But if you
do the short term is just you keep busy with
all that and the cost of it that it just
kind of stunts growth for companies.

Speaker 3 (54:27):
Well, I think too, the quarterly reports lead to more transparency,
but if you lead to a shorter term management uh goals.

Speaker 6 (54:36):
But like you're saying, they lead to more transparency, which
then brings what liquidity. I think that you take the
quarterly reports out, you're gonna get less like liquidity in
the market.

Speaker 2 (54:45):
We're gonna get speculating by analysts.

Speaker 5 (54:48):
Yeah, which they're wrong constantly, So I will say if
they the man, I just lost my train of thought.

Speaker 4 (54:54):
Yeah, talk about analysts. It'll come back to me.

Speaker 3 (54:57):
Yeah, analysts. Analysts are wrong quite a bit. But again
they're just guessing. It's kind of a weather man, right.
You take what information you've got available to you and
you make your best guess.

Speaker 2 (55:07):
But how about Tesla.

Speaker 3 (55:09):
Wow, far and away the richest valuation of any of
the mag seven stocks, but eight percent higher. On Monday,
Musk tweeted he had purchased one billion dollars worth of
the stock a week could go Friday, and then it
goes billion dollars worth of the stock, the largest open
market purchase that he has ever made.

Speaker 6 (55:27):
What was the trading out before that news like three
eighty right, yeah, right, and then it goes straight to
four to twenty. It's kind of weird to be bizarre.
Now it just goes to that Magnet number.

Speaker 4 (55:36):
If you wanted to take it private at this is
this is ten.

Speaker 3 (55:39):
This is ten days before they do away with the
seventy five hundred dollars rebates on the cars.

Speaker 2 (55:44):
The seventy five hundred dollars rebay goes.

Speaker 4 (55:45):
Away, and they're in a multi quarter sales slump.

Speaker 3 (55:48):
Too, multi quarter sales slump. Price is obviously not really.

Speaker 5 (55:51):
Nothing is changing with the landscape of Tesla. I mean,
they have a lot of competition coming up, and it's
just getting stronger and stronger than the body on must
that he's putting a billion dollars into it, so people
get more excited.

Speaker 6 (56:04):
And the autonomous vehicles, I think that you're just the robot,
the robotic side of that what they're talking about.

Speaker 3 (56:11):
Yeah, what's gotta be there's yeah that in the autonomous driving.
Although autonomous driving now, who knows how how popular that's
going to be. A lot of people like it. I
don't like it because it makes you drive the speed limit.
I'm not a you know, I'm not driving sixty down river,
but I don't want to know.

Speaker 4 (56:28):
You just want the control.

Speaker 5 (56:29):
You don't want to you know, you give up the
control on a plane because you've got a pilot flying.
You don't want to give the control of your car.

Speaker 2 (56:34):
Yeah, I bean a river road between between.

Speaker 3 (56:40):
Sabino canyon, and uh, I can't think of the street
I drive on every single day, the one right.

Speaker 2 (56:46):
Here U Campbell River. River. You just said river, I
did No, I said Tobino Canyon between.

Speaker 4 (56:56):
Lose our train of thoughts.

Speaker 3 (56:57):
The speed elemanon river between Sabino can and river because
river comes into the river. Okay, I got that's a continuation.
That's I'm so confused because I get out of Craycroft
and river and then I go to and I get
on I guess I leave river and get on river.

Speaker 2 (57:12):
Yeah, well this is very confusing. Anyway. The speed limit
there is thirty miles an hour. It's ridiculous.

Speaker 3 (57:18):
Speed eleven on Fifth three thirty miles an hour ridiculous.
You can't drive the thirty miles an hour speed eleven
on the Craycroft it's forty. You get run over speed
limit on a fort Lowell, a west of west of
Campbell thirty you can't possibly go through.

Speaker 5 (57:34):
You're talking about the intersection of brain Fen where you
get off river to on river. Yeah, yeah, okay, that's
why you're getting off river to get on River's.

Speaker 3 (57:43):
Totally Alvernon curves in Yah. Yeah, totally confused me. But
Fort Lowell west of Campbell, thirty miles an hour four lane.

Speaker 2 (57:51):
It's impossible. You drive thirty day, you're gonna get killed. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (57:55):
Anyway, that's autonomous driving. You're like a Thomas driving. You're
gonna go to speed limit.

Speaker 4 (58:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (58:01):
Going back to the earnings, I got my thought process back.
It was what I was gonna say is that it
seems lately in the last couple of quarters, people care
more about forward guidance and what the companies say about
what's going to go happen in the future, rather than
the past earning. So maybe that sentiment is what's making
the SEC think twice about forcing quarterly reports.

Speaker 2 (58:18):
Guidance is more important than earning.

Speaker 4 (58:21):
Past That's what I'm saying.

Speaker 5 (58:22):
So maybe they're saying, Okay, if a company just reports
twice a year, they're talking about guidance more. Anyways, they're
talking about longer term guidance. That's what they're doing now.
So maybe they just do it twice a year rather
than four times a year because the past earnings doesn't
necessarily matter. They could made one hundred million dollars last
quarter and they say, like in the holidays, you got
or for give DraftKings for example, fourth quarter is a

(58:44):
great quarter for the DraftKings because all of major sports
are playing. They're all in primetime either championships or NFL's
middle of the NBA starting, NHL starting, So fourth quarter
tends to be good for betting maps like Flutter and DraftKings.

Speaker 4 (58:56):
Then you'll have a good.

Speaker 5 (58:56):
Earnings report in January or February whenever they report because
of the pre quarter, but then their guidance to say, ah,
it's slowing down. We're not going to have such a
great quarter coming into this new year. People are going
to be saying, Okay, well I'm gonna take my profit,
I'm going to sell. But that's that's the shorter term
stuff you're talking about. Yeah, quarterly or they're all right, I.

Speaker 6 (59:14):
Guess I think my worry is, like, you released earnings
from last year back in January first or so, you
give this guidance and then you're totally not meeting that
guidance and you're leaving your investors in the complete dark, right,
I mean, you don't have that next earning support Till when.

Speaker 5 (59:30):
Half Dave was saying you got to rely on analysts
and what they're covering from the ends, and I don't
trust them, because I did see a good rebuttal about
this that people are saying, they're contradicting, saying they don't
want it is because if you're a normal retail investor,
you don't have an advisor, you're not an institutional investor.
You might have a hard time figuring out what's going
on with the company if you're not in the day

(59:51):
in and day out, if they're not doing quarterly reports.

Speaker 4 (59:55):
It just might be tougher.

Speaker 5 (59:56):
Or you change your investment strategy to longer term in
a sense, But that might tougher for retail investors who
are on Robin, who are on Charles Schwab, who are
all doing it themselves, that could become a tougher time
for them.

Speaker 2 (01:00:07):
If any of them care. It seems like most of
our momentum periods.

Speaker 4 (01:00:11):
That's true too.

Speaker 3 (01:00:13):
On we're talking about analysts the Sebastian on Friday. Now,
Tesla has done one. It's doubled since the Yeah, since April.

Speaker 5 (01:00:21):
Eighty it's up eighty five percent or over eighty five
since the April long just about fill down on the year,
right fill down on the year. It's positive now it's
actually gone positive. Yeah, it's positive after it's positive from
the April low.

Speaker 2 (01:00:32):
Now, all right, so it's doubled.

Speaker 3 (01:00:33):
Their business is terrible and getting worse and getting worse,
right pretty much?

Speaker 2 (01:00:37):
Okay, so Baird on Friday upgrade did this, doctor.

Speaker 3 (01:00:41):
Abie after this, after it's doubled with a price tag
of thirty percent above current level.

Speaker 5 (01:00:48):
How much power you on mustas over his company, you know,
But it's got to be, like keeps saying, it's got
to be something about the robotics rather than.

Speaker 3 (01:00:56):
Just the car.

Speaker 6 (01:00:56):
Yeah, And speaking on the robotics, we've been looking at
an ETF called bot z bots and this is a
global ex Robotics and Artificial Intelligence CTF. I just wanted
to bring up a little fun fact. Do you guys
know the difference between cobots and robots?

Speaker 4 (01:01:10):
No, cobots, those are daily tasks.

Speaker 6 (01:01:14):
Yeah, Basically, it's kind of like the AI agent's thing
that we've talked about in the past, but these robots,
it's instead of just a robot doing the actual work
for you, it's a newer generation of robots that are
being built to slafely work alongside the humans in the
same space. I think that we've been starting to look
at these companies again in the robotics and automation space,
artificial intelligence space. Those cobots I think might be a

(01:01:37):
little bit more beneficial early on until we figure out
how to actually make these things work for us.

Speaker 1 (01:01:43):
Right.

Speaker 2 (01:01:44):
I just can't imagine having a robot living in the
house my wife and I. Yeah, I don't even know.

Speaker 6 (01:01:48):
No, no, no, I don't think that. I don't think
they should look at it in that sense. I think
you got to look at it in a producer aspect
or manufacturing aspect.

Speaker 2 (01:01:57):
Do you think it's going to be just industrial.

Speaker 6 (01:01:59):
That sort of thing, And of course the surgical side
of things, right, because you have a lot of robots
or cobots now that help alongside a surgery.

Speaker 3 (01:02:07):
I could I could see some of some of that. Yeah,
so robotic anyway. Another one that everybody watches is in video.
Dyn't always always very important stock, probably the most important,
the single most important stock on the stock exchange at
this moment, I would say, yes, yeah, two percent lower
on Monday, after China market regulators said a preliminary investigation

(01:02:29):
found that the chip maker violated the country's anti monopoly law.
The investigation will continue. There was Also on Tuesday, the
new chip for the Chinese market that they developed received
a lukewarm response, and on Wednesday, China ban companies from
buying in video chips all together. Now they're in the

(01:02:53):
middle of trade negotiations, right, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:02:55):
So this smells to me a lot like a trade tactic.

Speaker 3 (01:02:58):
A trade tactic. But remember and Vidia's most recent quarterly report,
which was very.

Speaker 2 (01:03:04):
Strong, strong growth, stronger on these strong.

Speaker 3 (01:03:07):
Prospects, did not include a single sale to China. So
any sale that they get in China is a plus.

Speaker 4 (01:03:18):
Yeah. Yeah, it's just some investors just hear that and
just want to get out. That's why it goes down.

Speaker 2 (01:03:24):
I think, yeah, I don't.

Speaker 3 (01:03:25):
I don't blame them, And I think you have to
have to look at that position and if you had
a five percent position and it's now ten, you need
to consider it. Also, if you're thinking about taxes, remember
taxes are likely never going to be lower than they
are right now.

Speaker 2 (01:03:41):
Income taxes.

Speaker 3 (01:03:42):
I agree, they're the lowest amongst the lowest they've ever
been in history. They're never going to be never say never,
but they're unlikely to be lower.

Speaker 2 (01:03:51):
Than this in our lifetime.

Speaker 4 (01:03:52):
Yeah, And I mean the likelihood of that.

Speaker 5 (01:03:55):
You pay maximum twenty percent capital gains tax right now,
and that is if you make over five hundred thousand
amazing nowadays, So for most people you're going to be
paying about fifteen percent long term capital gains. Again, though,
if you bought in Vida in January this year and
it's gone up and you want to sell it, that's
short term capital gains which will be added to or
income for twenty twenty five, so you got to think

(01:04:17):
about that too. It's tax differently, is taxes income whatever
your income rate is, rather than long term capital gains.
So you got to hold it for twelve months or
more for long term capital gains. And if you are
in a retirement account, you do not have to worry
about capital gains. This is only for trust, regular brokerage accounts,
individual accounts, anything like that. Any taxable account is what
you got to worry about. Capital games. With retirement accounts

(01:04:39):
four one k's iras roth iray have nothing to worry about.
But same you don't have to worry about capital gains tax.

Speaker 2 (01:04:46):
Here's a question for you from an older man to
a younger man.

Speaker 3 (01:04:50):
Let's say you bought Nvidia at twenty five dollars, and
a lot of people did, and now it's one hundred
and seventy five dollars. And let's say you had one thousand, right,
So you've got one hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

Speaker 5 (01:05:02):
Capital gain in a taxable account, in a taxable account,
and you bought a thousand shares one time, so no
tax launch.

Speaker 2 (01:05:09):
I'm seventy eight years old. Huh what do you think?

Speaker 4 (01:05:13):
Oh, so you're asking me what I would tell you. Yeah,
I'm asking.

Speaker 3 (01:05:16):
I'm asking an older man, asking a younger man. I'm
let's say I'm seventy eight years old. I've got one
hundred and fifty thousand dollars unrealized capital gain in Nvidia
that it's likely not to ever go away completely if
I die. The cost basis comes up to whatever it
is that the data mighty.

Speaker 5 (01:05:36):
Is exactly what I was gonna say. In your sense,
if you're not needing to live off of that money,
and you don't need the money, don't sell it, because
then you're gonna have to realize the capital gains. But
for no reason, in a sense, if you're not trying
to use it at all, And this would be seventy eight.
So I mean it's morbid, but it's reality that becomes
You might live maybe five, ten, fifteen years more. It's

(01:05:59):
not that long compared to somebody in their thirties who
has one hundred and fifty thousand dollars gain.

Speaker 3 (01:06:03):
And could that one hundred and fifty thousand dollars disappear
easily Cueen seventy eight and death.

Speaker 2 (01:06:08):
Absolutely, yeah, absolutely it easily could likely too with a
company that seems to be on the air.

Speaker 5 (01:06:14):
And the main reason, like you were saying that we
wouldn't suggest you would sell that is because if you
do die tomorrow, your errors inherit that and it's a
step up in basis, so your capital gain that you
had goes away. So if your heirs sell that stock
the day of your death, they pay no capital gains tax.
And that's what you're looking for at that time. That's
a state planning towards more towards the end of the

(01:06:34):
life later in your years. Obviously you don't know how
long you're going to live, but if you're not living
on the money. We have plenty of clients with stuff
like that where they're not planning on living on it. Right,
All I mean and Also, if you do that, we
could look to sell some options on that to hedge
it in a sense. Sure, so there's different ways to
go about it. But if you're just flat saying sell it,
don't sell it, I would say, don't sell it if
you're not needing the money. If you need the money,

(01:06:56):
you got to buite the bullet.

Speaker 3 (01:06:57):
But I have a client who bought qq inherited QQQ
a long time ago and has never done anything with it.
As an eight hundred thousand dollars capital gain, I told
him that we could write covered calls against it, and
in the last six months, I've managed to write four
covered calls and lose ten thousand dollars each time.

Speaker 2 (01:07:20):
You know what you expect. You don't expect.

Speaker 3 (01:07:25):
A security go up fifty three percent, yeah, you know,
and since since I took over this particular position, probably
up twenty percent since then in the last four months,
the last three months.

Speaker 2 (01:07:37):
So you don't expect that.

Speaker 5 (01:07:38):
And the reason you sell the options like that and
take the ten thousand dollars loss is because now you
can sell some of the shares if you want from QQQ,
and if you realize ten thousand dollars in gains you
have ten thousand dollars and loss, you have no capital
gains to worry about.

Speaker 4 (01:07:50):
That offsets each other. And that's a strategy that we
do here.

Speaker 3 (01:07:53):
It's just an insurance policy and exactly, and it gives
you some additional income. Don't sound an interesting thing? You know,
I've been harping about inflation, a little more concerned about
inflation than most people. The Congressional Budget Office is also concerned.
The director said Monday that Trump's tariffs appear to have
pushed inflation higher.

Speaker 2 (01:08:14):
Than analysts had initially expected.

Speaker 3 (01:08:16):
He was on CNBC and he said that the analysis
shows the economy had weakened since January. And I don't
think there's too many people would argue with that. Which
he would have expected to exert downward pressure on inflation.
But the CPI has been going steadily higher month by
month by month. This goes back to what I had

(01:08:37):
said earlier. If these low interest rates do ignite a
housing boom, housing being the largest component of CPI. Actually
it's not housing. It's called shelter, which is house prices
and rent. If lower interest rates ignite a housing boom,
CPI is going to start jumping high because it should

(01:09:01):
have been dropping.

Speaker 2 (01:09:04):
Because of the slowing economy over the last few months,
it hasn't been.

Speaker 4 (01:09:10):
Yeah, I agree.

Speaker 5 (01:09:11):
And it's also with these dropping rights, you think the
housing market is going to start increasing. But also I
don't know how much higher these housing prices can go
that people are going to pay for them. Like we
keep talking about it, I just keep seeing housing price
cuts on different houses around town. And I mean, even
with rates coming down, they're still higher than they were
five years ago, much higher.

Speaker 3 (01:09:32):
About intail, mister Greenberg, I talked about it, are talking
about your monologue.

Speaker 1 (01:09:38):
Yeah, it's just like you know when the way I
was talking about it, I was talking about it, how
there's always opportunity, So if you take money up the table,
there will be opportunities. Boeing was an opportunity and all.
And then we looked at Intel and we said that's
an opportunity. But unfortunately I didn't step up and buy Intel.
And the reason I didn't buy Intel it's just been
a long boring stock that I thought that the the

(01:10:00):
AI and stuff is a long way away. I was wrong.
But Intel just shows you why you buy some of
these and that's maybe why you look at you on age.
Remember IBM was way down. Nobody wanted to do this.
Something about these big companies, something comes around all the time.

Speaker 2 (01:10:14):
I can't say, I can't agree with you that you
were wrong.

Speaker 3 (01:10:19):
Who expected Nvidia to jump in and essentially save an
American a great American company that was on its way
to the track pile.

Speaker 1 (01:10:28):
Well, the reason I'm saying is wrong is I say
there's opportunities in these big companies, and something usually happens
to turn around, but unfortunately you don't know when it's
going to happen. And you know, jump to twenty five
a couple of times with the with the government getting involved,
but then it but then it then it fell right
back to nineteen twenty.

Speaker 2 (01:10:47):
It was Tuesday or Wednesday was its best day in
forty years? Yeah, I know for the dock twenty years.

Speaker 1 (01:10:54):
This is the thing about it.

Speaker 3 (01:10:55):
I was.

Speaker 1 (01:10:55):
I was with somebody the other night at dinner and
they were bragging how they had until at sixteen, and
I said, you don't have it at sixteen, because no,
we have it at sixteen. I bought at sixteen. I said,
you know what, you guys always exaggerate. Why don't you
just be happy if you have it at twenty or
twenty one.

Speaker 2 (01:11:11):
Yeah, you'd be happy.

Speaker 1 (01:11:12):
They wry not be finally checked it. It was twenty dollars.

Speaker 2 (01:11:14):
I didn't get sixteen.

Speaker 1 (01:11:15):
No, it got to eighteen twenty. But it's just like
everyone has this spectacular mindset of what they really do,
and they can't do.

Speaker 3 (01:11:22):
Oh, absolutely absolutely it. Analysts are pretty skeptical about the
whole thing. In fact, City went so far as to
come out on Friday and change the stock from a
hold to a sale.

Speaker 2 (01:11:34):
Really yeah, well because the company.

Speaker 3 (01:11:36):
I buy it here, noah, no, no, And the problems
the company has have not gone away, right, The problems
have not gone away, They've just been delayed with the
infusion of money from Navidia.

Speaker 1 (01:11:50):
Appreciate everybody listening. We'll be right back. We got a
few more segments, so just hold on. Welcome back, everybody.
This is the money Batter showed and we got Dave
and Dylan. It's Sebastion and myself Dian Greenberg here to
talk to you. Why isn't Todd here?

Speaker 3 (01:12:06):
Todd and Berlin? You bet man finished the He ran
the Berlin marathon today. It's over now, all right.

Speaker 4 (01:12:14):
I think this is his third major in the world majors.

Speaker 2 (01:12:17):
Yeah, yeah, how cool is that?

Speaker 5 (01:12:19):
Chicago, Boston, and now is Berlin. He wants to run
all of them. It's pretty cool.

Speaker 2 (01:12:23):
It's very cool. Great, a great goal.

Speaker 3 (01:12:25):
And I think at one point he had his sight
set on becoming a maybe a world class marathoner. But
he's had some injuries and I think that he's got
a girlfriend now, so I think that's kind of changed
things a little bit, right.

Speaker 5 (01:12:36):
The girl also realize that you have to run like
these world class runners over in Canyona. So he tells
me about them, how they run one hundred one hundred
fifty miles a week. Yeah, and shot in the morning. Well,
they run in the morning and then they do their things.
All they do is run, so then they run an afternoon.
So they're doing two a days every day, just running.

Speaker 2 (01:12:52):
You have time for that.

Speaker 3 (01:12:53):
I have a neighbor who's a sixty five year old
ultra marathoner. These are the guys who run one hundred
mile marathons.

Speaker 2 (01:12:58):
Yep. He has a school in Kenya that where he
learned running.

Speaker 3 (01:13:04):
His family has a charitable school down there for underprivileged people,
and that he used to go down there all the
time and he learned how to run from them crazy
sixty five years always probably six two weighs, about one
hundred and thirty.

Speaker 2 (01:13:17):
Pounds made for running. I mean, he's so lucky that
his hips and his knees have held up. Yep, because
that's all that's what's all about.

Speaker 5 (01:13:29):
Yeah, I mean yeah, because if you get hurt and
you can't run, then all of a sudden he run
twenty miles a week rather than one hundred.

Speaker 2 (01:13:33):
Yeah. I was looking at that.

Speaker 3 (01:13:34):
I was looking at the Dallas docks, Deen, And we
don't follow the doll but it's fun to kind of
look at the docks, and we generally do it a month.

Speaker 2 (01:13:39):
And I just because of the movement in the.

Speaker 3 (01:13:42):
Market the last couple of weeks that I'm gonna little
take a little snapshot. Interestingly, what was buoying was number
one has now dropped to number seven, had a little
bit of a pullback because of the delay of their
seven seven seven Dreamliner thanks to governmental issues. Uh.

Speaker 2 (01:13:58):
Two of the top three performers our banks.

Speaker 3 (01:14:01):
Because of these i pos, because of all of the
new IPOs coming off Goldfing Sacks and JP Morgan, they're
just getting richest can be because I PO.

Speaker 2 (01:14:10):
After IPO, after I PO.

Speaker 1 (01:14:12):
No haven't. We haven't had them in a few years,
and now the pendulum swung to let's go do them.

Speaker 3 (01:14:16):
Yeah, a lot of these companies have been waiting, waiting, waiting,
and uh, and here they come. And so number two
is enn Videos that's regained its position up near the top.

Speaker 2 (01:14:27):
But the at the.

Speaker 3 (01:14:28):
Bottom, of course again is still Unite Healthcare. That may
be one of those stocks you were talking about doing it.

Speaker 1 (01:14:33):
Yeah, I mean, obviously it's a risk, so you have
to like understand what it's going to take. But you know,
when these stocks do this, one or two things are
going to happen. They they fold, they stay the same, right,
or they start rallying for whatever reason, and then everybody
then the news comes out.

Speaker 2 (01:14:51):
There's also they could go down. So that would be
three things that could happen.

Speaker 1 (01:14:55):
Right.

Speaker 2 (01:14:55):
They could stay the same, they could go up.

Speaker 1 (01:14:56):
Yeah, but once they get crushed like they did, seems
like unless they go out of business. Once they stop
going down, it's either they stay there for a while
or they or they were.

Speaker 5 (01:15:05):
They started getting big money institutional investors and hedge funds
buying into it.

Speaker 4 (01:15:10):
That's when the pendulum starts.

Speaker 3 (01:15:12):
Going the other world there halfway bought it, bought into it,
went from three hundred to three fifty yep.

Speaker 5 (01:15:16):
I think point seventy two capital huge heads. It's either
them or another big head fund like them that bought
into it as well.

Speaker 2 (01:15:22):
Yeah, and they did.

Speaker 3 (01:15:23):
The seventy two year old CEO bought twenty five million
dollars worth. Yeah, and I don't think it's a long
term investment.

Speaker 5 (01:15:28):
You have some congress people that are buying into it
as well, so something's going on with U n H.
But talking about IPOs, Yeah, it's been a busy few
months for them, and we had four last week. You
had net Spoke was a cybersecurity water bridge, was oil
field water and infrastructure. They operate and produced water handled
mostly in.

Speaker 4 (01:15:46):
Oil basins in Texas. And then you have Stop Up
the Ticket, but that has not been doing well. That's
dropped ten percent.

Speaker 2 (01:15:52):
On Frost kind of stubbed itself, didn't get it.

Speaker 4 (01:15:55):
So it's just been waiting on that one.

Speaker 5 (01:15:57):
And then Pattern Group is an e commerce marketplace that
sells on Amazon's Amazon's biggest secondary market.

Speaker 3 (01:16:04):
UH producer Dean Back in the day when an IPO
would come out, the underwriter was always UH supporting it.

Speaker 2 (01:16:12):
For a period of a few weeks to a month.

Speaker 3 (01:16:15):
So if you brought a stock a new public company
that you had nothing but glorious things to say about
UH and sold it to your clients, placed it with
your clients, you made sure that when they bought that
investment is stayed stable for a period of time. That
that's not the case anymore. The SEC actually started to

(01:16:36):
complain about market manipulation, that the stabilization process, which was
a part of part of Wall Street. Every I PO
that came out had underwriters stabilizing it was part of
the the process.

Speaker 2 (01:16:52):
It is now no longer part of the process now
did it?

Speaker 1 (01:16:55):
But they still don't allow people that are buying it
the inside is to sell right away.

Speaker 3 (01:16:59):
Oh no, you're restricted, absolutely restricted. Hey Dylan, were you
familiar with this web twn entertainment? Have you ever heard
that term?

Speaker 1 (01:17:07):
I have not known?

Speaker 2 (01:17:07):
Is it?

Speaker 3 (01:17:08):
A global storytelling platform? Became public last year at twenty
one bucks. A share steadily declined to six fifty in April,
steadily stocks Double Sense then jumped another thirty five percent
on Tuesday. Company reached a deal to create a digital
comic platform for Disney interesting digital comic platform. So apparently

(01:17:30):
it's a it's a site onto which people can can
jump and do creative things. Quite a bit of news
in the GLP one space last week. Lily up two
percent on Tuesday after they announced plans to build a
five billion dollar plant near Richmond, Virginia.

Speaker 2 (01:17:46):
Lucky Richmond right.

Speaker 3 (01:17:48):
The announcement comes as President Trump has threatened significant tariffs
against Pharmas. You think that was probably to get him
off their back, him and hers health. That's one of
the most volatile stocks over the twelve months. That thing's
just been all over the place. Down seven percent on
Tuesday after received a warning letter from the Food and
Drug Administration which the company's claims on the website regarding

(01:18:10):
compound semi glue tide, which is the GLP one the
weight loss drugs. They called their ads false or misleading.
And then lastly Noble Nordics down thirty five percent this year.
Sebastian's favorite stock. But I always have to get the
BASTIONI in our time. He hasn't known it for months,
but it's fun to pick on him. Higher at the

(01:18:31):
open on Tuesday, Sebastian after the company reported their experimental
once weekly weight loss drug injection help patients reduce their
weight by eleven percent after sixty eight weeks. Wednesday we
learned Lily's oral pill outperformed the Noble's Oral pill and
they had to head comparison. What's the news on the

(01:18:53):
GLP one?

Speaker 5 (01:18:55):
Yeah, and I mean another news with that is that
we're talking to a doctor who sells a lot of
that and he said, eventually those are going to get
taken over by the government and price is going to
go way down. So the profit you are finding right
now and all that craze about it is going to
go away. Just like with the insulin. When if guy
first came out with insulin, he was making a ton
of money. Government said that's too much, took it over,

(01:19:18):
and now insolent.

Speaker 1 (01:19:20):
I think that this this administration is going to go
after the farmer. Okay, I mean, you know we always
say this farma. Everyone talks bad. The Democrats talk bad.
We probably can talk bad, right, but they never do
anything about it. Why the lobbyists given him money? Okay,
Trump doesn't care. He's not getting any money from these people,

(01:19:42):
and he wants to get the prices down on all
the drugs and we should never be paying more for
drugs than people around the world.

Speaker 2 (01:19:49):
You wouldn't think so if they're developed here.

Speaker 1 (01:19:52):
Another thing they take advantage and off people here are
okay with Well.

Speaker 5 (01:19:55):
You know what companies are saying to the farmer, Companies
are saying that they're possible change if you saying that
you have to match the other countries that they're paying
for or they're charging over there, They're going to raise
the prices in the other country rather than lower the
prices here.

Speaker 4 (01:20:08):
That's been a thought, and that's been it talked about before.
Then gets absolutely ridiculous.

Speaker 1 (01:20:12):
Right, Yeah, they low, they raise them a little low?

Speaker 3 (01:20:17):
Was us a little Yeah, it does seem it does
seem illogical that you can buy us drug in other
countries cheaper than you can buy them in the US.

Speaker 2 (01:20:27):
That has to do with us simply being a wealthier country, you.

Speaker 4 (01:20:30):
Know, that's what they claim.

Speaker 1 (01:20:31):
I know they say it's because of the all the
technology advantages they make and all the research and development
they do. But why do we do it for the
world is a case. This is again every time we
turn around, it's taking advantage of America. And you know,
and and unfortunately of our people are okay with that,
but it's going to make.

Speaker 3 (01:20:50):
Us go broke, seems like it. We're certainly hinted that way.
We're certainly hinted that way. Speaking of going broke, Lift
was the poor stepchild to Uber over the past few years,
and I thought that the autonomous vehicle thing, the Weymos
of the world were really going to put a dant
in Uber.

Speaker 2 (01:21:09):
Turns out they partnered with him. Yeah, I like one
of the best performing stock now and then last.

Speaker 3 (01:21:15):
Week Lift it's a partnership with Weymo in Nashville, So
that up goes lift Stock. I mean, liftstock has been
a dog and it gained fifteen percent on Wednesday. It's
up sixty percent in the last four months. Apparently it's
the demise of the company has been much exaggerated.

Speaker 5 (01:21:35):
Yeah, I mean that was smart moving forward to partnering
with the autonomous driving because they kind of had to
follow Uber what they're doing because it obviously worked.

Speaker 2 (01:21:43):
Yeah. I was surprised.

Speaker 3 (01:21:44):
I just honestly never thought through that that Uber would
benefit from from Waymo.

Speaker 2 (01:21:51):
Well now they get to make money off it, Yeah,
benefit from no absolutely, And what's gonna happen. What's going
to happen.

Speaker 3 (01:21:56):
Is you on the waymo app, you're going to have
the ability to order uber or a lift on your
way more app.

Speaker 2 (01:22:03):
So it's whatever you want.

Speaker 4 (01:22:05):
Oh I wonder who's gonna win that one. I guess
it depends on city, right now, I.

Speaker 3 (01:22:09):
Suppose yeah, yeah, right now. It's wrong and not everyone
Dylan wants to get in a vehicle with no driver.
I haven't been, honestly, I haven't either.

Speaker 4 (01:22:19):
I see videos of it. It seems weird.

Speaker 3 (01:22:20):
It does seem a little weird. I just don't know
how much confidence I have in that technology. Yeah, but
but I mean, you know, Phoenix has had thousands of
trips with virtually no accident, So yeah, I mean there's
proof right there.

Speaker 1 (01:22:35):
But it does seem I think it's would be more
the frustration of, like, you know, because you know it's
going to go with the speed limit, you know it's
gonna like drive safely, you know it's going to do
all that, and like probably eighty percent of people that
drive drive over the speed limit a little bit, you know,
actually try to get someplace. I think the frustration of

(01:22:56):
going so slow and being so so by the laws
going to be more of a case of people.

Speaker 2 (01:23:02):
I said that earlier on the show.

Speaker 3 (01:23:03):
The big downside to autonomous driving if you go to
the speed limit and our places in Tucson where this
speed limits ridiculous thirty miles now on Fifth Street, thirty
miles hour on river, places that are just silly. You
can't craycraft. You go speedling on Craycraft, you're going to
get reranding. That's a racetrack. There's coming down.

Speaker 4 (01:23:28):
Going south on it.

Speaker 5 (01:23:29):
Hey, for those of you that are still interested in
our seminar, it's coming up this coming Friday on the
twenty sixth, eleven thirty to two pm at Lapeloma Country Club.
We will be going through a generic financial plan what
we talk about all the time on this show about
how we do our financial plan. We'll be showing you
live over there about what it looks like. And if
you're interested but you've been hesitant to set up a
meeting because you're not completely sure, this is a perfect

(01:23:50):
opportunity to see what we're all about and how we
can help with the financial plan. And you get a
free lunch from it, and you get some soda, then
get to see what we do and get to meet us.

Speaker 3 (01:23:59):
In all, a lot of people own Apple stocks still
down for the year, but higher at the open on Friday,
after JP Morgan hiked Apple's price to two hundred and
eighty dollars. Wall Street Firms said, the demand for the
new seventeen is pretty good, Dylan, you're gonna get one,
so I am indeed, I'm I'm in the market as well.

Speaker 1 (01:24:17):
So you all getting seventeen. It's good for you. We'll
be right back. Thanks for listening. This is the Money
Bunty Show.

Speaker 5 (01:24:22):
Welcome back to the final segment of the Money Matter Show.
It's always a great show. Thank you for tuning in, everybody,
And right now for this final segment, we have somebody
who we have on quite a bit and he has
his own show that we talk on Saturdays. It is
Jonathan Sabilia of Edward Law Firm. He is the estate
planning attorney that works out of our office and we
all work in tandem together. We can't So what's been
going on in your World's been going on in the
estate planning world?

Speaker 7 (01:24:43):
A whole lot of different facts in different scenarios and
just adjusting.

Speaker 2 (01:24:47):
To each one.

Speaker 5 (01:24:49):
Yeah, anything interesting going lately? You were talking about you
had a case with the power of attorneys with the
father just yeah, it was auspice.

Speaker 7 (01:24:57):
Yeah, we were just talking off air about it. I'll
give you guys the rundown. So basically, dad went into hospice,
gave daughter power of attorney over his assets, and that
allows her to pay for his hospice care, his long
term care. He has three accounts. He has a bank account,
a money market account, and a four to oh one K.

(01:25:18):
Each one has a different beneficiary. She has, let's say
the four oh one k as a benefic she's the
beneficial for four one K brother. One brother is the
money market and someone else's is the regular bank account.
So she's decided to use the brother's account to pay
off his medical bills. The unfortunate thing there is she

(01:25:39):
has the power to do that. She knows that eventually
that'll get led down and the brother will get a
lot less and she's gonna she's going to keep her
share of whatever she was going to get from that
four oh one K. And as you were saying, and
it's kind of messed up, and so what do we
want to do? How do we prevent that type of
thing happening where if you give somebody power of attorney
they're using someone else, this inheritance to pay for Dad

(01:26:02):
and they get to maintain theirs.

Speaker 5 (01:26:03):
Yeah, and I mean it's legal what she's doing. It's
just do you have a fiduciary duty when you're the
power of attorney? They have, Yeah, you have a fiduciary
like she's not breaching.

Speaker 4 (01:26:12):
That either technically because she's paying for the hospital bills.

Speaker 7 (01:26:15):
She's basically power of attorney. You're just basically stepping into
the role of the person who granted that power of
attorney to pay their bills.

Speaker 5 (01:26:23):
It just seems morally murky morally, but it's all legal
along the last time. So how would you go about
setting something up so that, in a sense can't happen.

Speaker 7 (01:26:32):
Well, there's always a trust, So you just put everything
into a trust, and then if you want everything divided
three ways, it'll be divided, shakeout and everybody will get
something even at the end.

Speaker 2 (01:26:43):
Problem is, you can't put a four to one can
to trust. No, but you can make it a beneficiary.

Speaker 3 (01:26:46):
It could make the trust the beneficiary of the four
one k, but that wouldn't have prevented this situation because
she's using after tax money to pay his medical bills.

Speaker 7 (01:26:56):
But if she's getting let's saye hundred thousand dollars from
that four oh one K, and there's thirty thirty thousand
in each the money mark and bank account, and she
bleeds down that one bank account to zero, well, that
one brother is getting zero, the other brother's getting thirty,
and she's gonna get the whole hundred. But if you
make the trust of the four toh one K the beneficiary,
and you put both those accounts inside of a trust,

(01:27:18):
and the dad passes, well, that four oh one K
dumps into that trust, and then everybody divides equally.

Speaker 5 (01:27:24):
Yeah okay, Yeah, So in a sense that she's a
beneficiary of the four O one K and the brothers
are the beneficiary of two taxable accounts, you would drain
the taxable accounts first. So it might not be as
more league murky as initially thought, because you're not going
to go into the four O one K first if
you have money in a bank account to pay for
the hospital expenses, because then you'll have to pay taxes

(01:27:45):
on the four O K then you'll have to you'll
get less and you have to take out more. Exactly,
So you would take it from but it's in a sense,
there's the dad making the beneficiaries one of each where
it was messed up because if she's the only sole
beneficiary of the four o.

Speaker 4 (01:27:57):
One k, yeah, that's the third one that's gonna be used.

Speaker 5 (01:27:59):
She might be his favorite, I don't know, but that's
the third one you'd use as when you're paying for
medical bills exactly.

Speaker 7 (01:28:05):
And but the thing is is that now you get
to guarantee that everybody gets to split everything.

Speaker 5 (01:28:09):
They'll exactly Saro. Yeah, the trust makes it so it's
all thirty three percent roughly.

Speaker 7 (01:28:14):
And then there's and then you know, making the trust
the beneficiary also makes sense because the four to one
k is pre post tax money.

Speaker 2 (01:28:23):
He's a traditional four one K is pre tax money, pre.

Speaker 7 (01:28:25):
Tax money, so when it comes to the beneficiaries, it's
eventually it's taxed at the individual level. So let's say
sister makes four hundred thousand dollars a year and the
two brothers make one hundred thousand dollars a year, you
would probably want to divert some of that four oh
one k to the most of that four to one
k to the two brothers that pay.

Speaker 2 (01:28:42):
A lower tax, because they'll get more of the money exactly. Yep.

Speaker 7 (01:28:46):
You know what's fifteen percent of one hundred thousand dollars
is fifteen grand that you could possibly avoid in taxes.

Speaker 3 (01:28:51):
Right, But if you're if you're, if you if you're
trying to avoid one sibling taking advantage of the other sibling,
the other two siblings, wouldn't the trust designate a third
third a third?

Speaker 2 (01:29:05):
Exactly?

Speaker 1 (01:29:06):
So?

Speaker 3 (01:29:06):
And the problem with having a trust is a beneficiar
of a retirement account is you don't get the ten
ten year dispersement, right, you have to disperse immediately.

Speaker 2 (01:29:16):
No, that's not true.

Speaker 7 (01:29:17):
So what you can do is you can you can
do see through language and the trustee could pull out
over a ten year period.

Speaker 2 (01:29:25):
It allows that for it's basically assuming the beneficiars are
okay with that.

Speaker 7 (01:29:30):
As long as they're okay with it. But statistically most
most beneficiaries bleed down a four to one K within
three years.

Speaker 2 (01:29:36):
Yeah, I could see that.

Speaker 7 (01:29:38):
But they have the right because there see through language
in that trust that they could they could withdraw over
a ten year period.

Speaker 3 (01:29:43):
So it would have to be specific wording within the
trust because right or wrong, absolutely, Because a trust being
the beneficiar of a four to one k that trust
has to be liquidated and dispersed exactly.

Speaker 7 (01:29:56):
But what we said we put c through language. So
we look through the trust and we see the qualified beneficiary.
That's a legal term, the qualified benefisiary. And once we
identify that as a beneficiary, then we can disperse over
ten year period.

Speaker 3 (01:30:09):
This is one of the things that Jonathan can do
for you. If you have a situation. Let's say you're
on your first wife, or second wife, or a third wife.
My brother's on his third wife, and he said he
has to stay with her because if she divorces him,
it's not her.

Speaker 2 (01:30:23):
It's not her.

Speaker 3 (01:30:24):
You know, I said it wrong. He said, if you
get divorce from your third wife, it's not them. He's
what he said. So he's been with it for over
twenty years.

Speaker 1 (01:30:34):
Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:30:34):
Well, you make a mistake or someone tricks you, shame
on you. It's the second time your tricks.

Speaker 1 (01:30:39):
Shame on me.

Speaker 3 (01:30:40):
I had a situation pop up, a similar situation, and
it made me kind of scratch my head. I have
this couple, they're both seventy two, they have one child.
They get along great with the child. There are no
other children, there are no other marriages, This has been
their only marriage and they have about probably two million,
two and a half million in net worth. They're wanting

(01:31:01):
to set up a trust. I'm thinking, why why would
you set up a trust? And I think it's because
people tell them they should that for ease of just
first or whatever. What do you think about that? I
get a lot of I guess scenario. How old is
a child?

Speaker 2 (01:31:19):
Well, let's see, there's seventy cheers, so he'd be forty five.
And what are their goals for that child?

Speaker 7 (01:31:24):
Do they want to do any asset protection?

Speaker 2 (01:31:26):
No, he's forty five, you know, if you haven't figured
it out by now.

Speaker 7 (01:31:29):
So when they die, they just want it to go
to him.

Speaker 2 (01:31:31):
Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:31:31):
Right, So there's no reason depending on what the assets are.
Do you have homes in multiple states? You know that
might be an issue.

Speaker 2 (01:31:38):
They don't.

Speaker 3 (01:31:38):
It's just very plain fidility of one home in one
state and they have account with US and a couple
of other accounts and banks. It's pretty much Yet, would
you even worry about setting up TOD? Is there any
reason to even do anything?

Speaker 2 (01:31:53):
The only time?

Speaker 7 (01:31:54):
Do you want to put a TOD on the deed
at least so you do avoid probate. Child just goes
to the recorder's office, files your death certificate. Houses the
next days theirs don't have to wait the four months
for probate, don't have to wait the four months for
trust administration. The house is there is the next day
they can sell it, move in whatever they want.

Speaker 3 (01:32:14):
Probate might as well be what's ebola right for most
people when they hear the word probate. Give me an
example of a Tucson, Arizona probate. Somebody dies, they have
a will, right has to go through a probate, correct,
So walk me through that.

Speaker 7 (01:32:34):
So somebody comes to me says, hey, mom or dad died,
I have a will. I'm appointed a personal representative through
the will. Okay, wonderful, It's going to be an easy probate.
If you have a will, it's an informal probate. Typically
informal basically means we just deal with the clerk. We
don't have to go to we don't have to have
a court hearing. So I file, I prepare a bunch

(01:32:56):
of documents that's submitted to.

Speaker 2 (01:32:58):
The clerk of court. They review the will, they review.

Speaker 7 (01:33:01):
The documents, and then what they do over if it's
PMA County. It's usually a four day period. I'll hear
back sometimes.

Speaker 2 (01:33:07):
In two days.

Speaker 7 (01:33:08):
Eight we've accepted the letters of testamentary. Here's the letters
to come pick them up. I go over to the courthouse,
I get the letters a testamentary, and then we can
begin the process of probate probate. Then from from there
on out, we start contacting beneficiaries. We send them notice
Mom or Dad died. You're a beneficiary of the will.
You have four months to contest. Then you published notice

(01:33:33):
that goes into the newspaper. Hey, creditors, you have four
months to reach out, and if you don't reach out
within four months, you lose your right to the debt.
We start collecting assets, we start taking inventories of the assets.
We send the inventories and the accounting to the to
the beneficiaries. Here's what we have, here's what everything's the
praise for. Here's what your share is.

Speaker 1 (01:33:54):
Going to be.

Speaker 7 (01:33:55):
And then hopefully by the end four months and we've
passed that statute statute of limitations on the debt, and
we've passing the statute limitations on the contest of the will,
then we can begin distributions. Of the assets.

Speaker 3 (01:34:07):
John, are those things that? Uh, because in my experience
has been a person dies, they have a will, The
will says so, and so is their personal representative. Uh.
The personal intentative goes down to superior court, they get
a letter of testamentary, they take that letter of testamentary

(01:34:28):
back to me, and that account is transferred wherever they
want to transfer.

Speaker 2 (01:34:32):
That's it.

Speaker 3 (01:34:33):
There's no waiting period, there's no putting things in newspapers.
What's to stop someone from selling a car, selling a
house without waiting fore months?

Speaker 2 (01:34:44):
Is that just something a c ya?

Speaker 7 (01:34:47):
Well, if the house, if the house is in the
deceased person's name, the title company is not going to
allow you to transfer that asset without letters of testamentary.

Speaker 1 (01:34:55):
You'll have that.

Speaker 2 (01:34:56):
But I mean you can get that real easily. They
can get that really easily.

Speaker 3 (01:34:58):
Yeah, but then there's no forty no four month wait,
no publishing the newspaper, none of that.

Speaker 2 (01:35:04):
So why do you go through that process?

Speaker 7 (01:35:07):
Why do I go through the probate process?

Speaker 3 (01:35:10):
I guess, Yeah, why would you go beyond the letter
of testamentary. Here's your letter of testimonary, have a nice life.

Speaker 7 (01:35:18):
Well, if I understand the question, correctly. You're saying, once
I get the letters of testamentary, what do we do?
You know what stops them from selling the house?

Speaker 2 (01:35:27):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (01:35:28):
What's happened from doing anything they want to do? Oh,
I see what you're saying now. So basically they're under
a fiduciary duty, and what can end up happening is
if they start taking assets not doing what's right, they're vibe,
they're breaching their fiduciary duty.

Speaker 3 (01:35:42):
As long as as long as they're playing by the rules,
there's no reason you have to go through all of
those other steps. But those are things that you can
answer for people if they want to call five two
zero five four four four.

Speaker 2 (01:35:52):
Nine o nine.

Speaker 3 (01:35:53):
We all want to be happy. We all want to
be healthy, because John, if we're not healthy, we're probably
not happy.

Speaker 2 (01:35:58):
Right work financial, what we're really trying to be is rofitable.
See you next week

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