Tariff Turbulence & Tech Titans: What It Means for Your Money This Summer

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good morning, it's eight o'clock. It's Sunday morning. This is
the Money Matter Show. Just as Dave Sherwood Dean's out
of the office, I'm here with Dylan Greenberg. I'm here
with Todd Clake, Junior, Sebastian Borstin. He's going to be
joining the Sebastian is down in Rio Rico giving the
first responders a little bit of financial literacy. You and
Dylan and Sebastian have made three trips to Rio Rico

(00:22):
in the last two weeks, mostly young people, many of
whom will not become clients for many, many years, if ever,
And yet you were down there giving them financial training
and gave for you.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yeah. I mean we talk about it all the time
on the show, that financial literacy is something's just not
taught in schools anymore. I mean, you kind of got
it a little bit back in the day with homech
I was talking to a client about that today in
a client meeting. But you just don't get it anymore
the way you need it. And it's just simple things
balancing a check book. You know, what's the difference between
credit and debit. And that's the presentation. We actually run

(00:58):
them through and we also run them through the financial
planning software. And most people think you have to be
forty fifty sixty to be running that plan, but you don't.
You can be twenty and thirty and see how compound
interests can actually work for you versus against you. If
you have a credit card, I.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
Have a financial plan, and thirty might actually be more
important than haven't won a seventy s Well, it's.

Speaker 3 (01:16):
Because you create one of thirty. A lot of things
are going to change from your thirty to fifty to
sixty those next twenty thirty years, you're gonna have a
lot of changes. But if you have a base that
you built at thirty, it's easy to make changes because
you can see the effects real time of what if
what happens if I buy this house, what happens if
I have a kid, what happens if I have another kid?
All these different things, or we want to move, we
want to buy a rental Because you have a lot

(01:38):
changing in your financial life from age thirty to sixty.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
Yeah, what if I do one hundred dollars a month
to my row versus two hundred dollars. What type of
asset allocation do I need to get long term compounding growth.
And what you see is for the young people, you
want to be as risky as possible, right, especially over
the long period of time, because you have the time
to play that game. And then when you start playing
with the plan and you understand that when you get
closer to the point of retirement you hit the decumulation phase,

(02:04):
well then you're not going to be as risky. But
having when to know when to have those asset allocations,
you really have to have that plan.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
One of the big things we concentrate on here is education,
and this is a good example of what we're doing.
This is three days with three guys who, uh, will
we get any business out of it? Probably not, It
doesn't matter.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
That's why we do our TV shows as well, right,
I mean, most of those TV shows aren't necessarily like
real time events. There are more educational topics about around
financial planning as well as our money management philosophy.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
Yeah, if you you watch and if you missed any
of those, where would you find them?

Speaker 2 (02:41):
Well, you can go to our YouTube page Greenberg Financial Group.
It's gonna be on a channel there, but you also
can just look for them on Sunday.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
On our website.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
No, they're not on site. Our YouTube link is on
our website. If you can't figure out the YouTube search bar,
you can just go to our and there's a hybrid
that will take you straight to our channel. But yeah,
for the regular recordings there Sunday morning after meet the President,
then Sunday night after the ten o'clock news.

Speaker 1 (03:08):
Coming out for three day weekend. Anybody do anything excited? Don't?
You were probably the one that did the most over the.

Speaker 4 (03:13):
Three day Yeah, I mean I went to Austin, Texas.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
Fun.

Speaker 3 (03:16):
Yeah, we were out at my girlfriend's uncle has the
lake house. So we were out there for the weekend.
Oh wow, lot of fun.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
I know. There was a river through Austin. There must
is there a lake. There must be a lake nearby.

Speaker 4 (03:26):
Yeah, it was about an hour outside.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
Oh what, so we drove but there, I mean it
was a big lake and then we were on like
their other part of the lake.

Speaker 4 (03:32):
There's a lot of water around Austin.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
There's a lot of water in Texas. If you ever
flew into Dallas, Fort Worth or any of those plays.
But there's a lot of water in Texas. And my
daughter went to TCU and Fortworth, so I was in
Texas quite a bit. I was always surprised at the
amount of water. And then as I drove. When she
graduated from college, she got a job in Boston, so
we had to move all of her stuff from Fort
Worth to Boston. And as I drove across Arkansas, I've

(03:57):
never seen so much water in my life life as
I saw in Arkansas. Rivers lakes almost every other mile.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
I have a good story about Arkansas. I had a
client that was said that he had to drive through
Arkansas to get back to Maryland from Arizona one year,
and he did his drive quite a bit, and apparently
there's this bowl that you go into in Arkansas, the
Mississippi Valley River whatever, right, and there's a whole bunch
of mosquitoes. But these are mosquitos that we don't know
about here. I mean, they're huge, they said. And when

(04:26):
you would drive every twenty five miles, he would have
to stop get out because all the guts of the
mosquitoes were just splattered all over your mire that you
you couldn't see outside your car.

Speaker 1 (04:36):
Oh, we're gonna day.

Speaker 2 (04:37):
The wiper blades would just smear the guts around that
you would actually have to get out of your car,
and when you get out, it was ninety nine percent humidity,
so you just instantly sweat. And this is a nineteen
seventy car, no ac, and you had to do that.
And every twenty five miles he had to start, and
he's like, this is just a miserable place to live.
I don't know how anyone can live here.

Speaker 1 (04:54):
Mosquitos. Mosquitos like water, and below there's a lot of
water in Arkansas, I'll tell you that. So the big
headline was this week was the same headline we've had
for a couple of weeks, and the tariff tantrums where
we're going nuts again a.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
Couple different places this time, though not just China. Started
our week off in Europe.

Speaker 1 (05:14):
The Tuesday morning, right out of the shoot.

Speaker 2 (05:16):
We're gonna pause fifty U tariffs until July ninth or
something like that.

Speaker 1 (05:21):
Well, if it did the fifty tariffs on Monday morning,
and then what was it Monday afternoon or Tuesday he said,
or excuse me, Tuesday morning when we first came in
off the three day weekend, he said, fifty percent tariffs
on Europe. And then I remember for a Tuesday afternoon
or Wednesday morning, he said, I'll tell you what's July ninth,
because that's the expiration of the original ninety days, the

(05:43):
ten percent tariffs he put on. They expired July ninth.
And of course, the US Court of International Trade ruled
Wednesday night that Trump overstepped his authority when he imposed
those reciprocal tariffs, and the court ordered that they all
be undone, all be vacated, and a panel of three
judges gave Trump ten days to do that, and that

(06:04):
very day an appeals court quickly blocked that order. So
if you didn't like the terriffic tantrums, and now you've
got the courts involved, so you've not only got whatever
Trump's gonna say, but what the courts will say, how
they're gonna one court's gonna rule, how the other court's
gonna rule. I mean the uncertainty. We always say that

(06:27):
the market hates uncertainty. We have uncertainty in spades, and yet,
and yet investors did not sell in May and go away.
That's a adage that goes back to the days when
there was no connectivity, and when you went to the
Hamptons for the summer, you sold everything and sold in
may and went away. That was kind of back in

(06:49):
the day. Not the case anymore, obviously with connectivity, but
we still hear that phrase thrown around from time to time.
And they clearly didn't sell and may and go away.
Because the S and P five hundred was finished the
month up six point one percent, which is the best
month since November of twenty twenty three.

Speaker 2 (07:08):
I think it's the best time for the market to
have uncertainty because of the tailwind of AI and all
the excitement of even quantum five years out. I mean,
people are investing for not just one to two years out,
but they're thinking five to ten years out. And as
much as some of these tariffs hurt on the interim,
we think we all agree at this table that long
term it helps. And if long term as well, you

(07:29):
have these technological benefits, some of these prices right now
might not be so cheap that we think they are.

Speaker 1 (07:35):
And I've got one other thing, and that the word
I coined last week trumptimism. And I think that everybody
that is investing, not everybody, but most of the people
that are investing in the market have trumptomism. They believe
that at the end of the day. He will get
it done and it will be better for the country.

(07:57):
It will be better, the tariffs will be in our favor.
He will be pro business, he will be anti regulation.
Uh and and the market's going to embrace that. So
I think that's a big part of what's driving things.

Speaker 2 (08:12):
Yeah. I mean, we also saw a will talk about
the video's earnings. They were very strong, and that's just
again showing that this AI isn't just a fad. People
are spending a lot of dollars in building out their
different infrastructures.

Speaker 1 (08:25):
Yeah. I probably read the disclaims, do it normally? We have, Sebastian,
I have never done this fair warning. I have never
read this disclaimer in my life and ever so it's
the first time never even looked at it. So here
we go.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
Haven't you done this?

Speaker 4 (08:39):
Have you given that quick years ago?

Speaker 2 (08:41):
You've done that. You've done the show by yourself before,
haven't you?

Speaker 1 (08:44):
No? Have you never done the show myself? No? I
never done it all myself. I've done it with other guests.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
Non they read thela.

Speaker 1 (08:53):
They did, Yeah, because I made him. In fact, you
want to read.

Speaker 2 (08:58):
It, No, I'm making you.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
The show is sponsored by the Greenberg Financial Group and
you can listen on seven ninety KST or iHeartRadio. The
show discusses different investment products and strategies. Every product and
strategy has some type of inherent risk, and we strongly
encourage our listeners to properly understand the risk to determine
whether The Buy Seller Hold Show has been on the

(09:21):
air for over thirty years. Greenberg Financial is registered with
the SEC. Visit our website at Greenberg Financial dot com
for more information.

Speaker 2 (09:30):
Not bad day first time.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
One of the things that's giving resilience in addition to
trumptimism is the.

Speaker 2 (09:40):
What's the resilience that you're thinking of the market?

Speaker 1 (09:45):
The market resilience? Yeah, I mean were the economy. I'm sorry,
I said market the economy. The economy has been strong
every report that we have, not every virtually every report
we have coming out showing a strong economy. Consumer confidences
is writhing based upon the trumpemism.

Speaker 2 (10:04):
The other thing I guess you could say from a
weakening economy standpoint is lowering inflation, right, I mean, that's
it's a good and a bad thing at the same token,
because we're not having the same type of growth we
saw that the PCE came out, I believe this week,
and it came in lower than expectations. So that's a
good thing in terms of eventually the Feds should be
able to lower rates and that's going to help the

(10:26):
housing market. We slowed that. We have seen that side
of the economy slow quite significantly.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
It has slowed significantly. And it's interesting because on Friday,
the pc the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index came out that
is reported to be the Fed's favorite thing that they
look at, and that actually was only up one tenth
of a percent for the month and was at the
lowest level in four years.

Speaker 2 (10:53):
Yeah, that's one point two for the year. That's one
point two for the year.

Speaker 1 (10:58):
That two point one over the last twelve month, one
point one, two point one over the last twelve months.
I've got a buddy who's in the real estate business,
and I was talking to him on last week and
this past week, and I'll asked him, I said, how
much has the market slowed down? He said, well, he
said inventory has increased by forty five percent, and he

(11:20):
said sales are back to the two thousand and nine level.
He said, so it's rough out there. And he said
but prices so far have only dropped about five percent
from where they were at the high. The time on
the market has expanded. The time on the market a
couple of years ago was fifteen minutes. You know, now

(11:41):
it's fifty two days. Interest rates are still a problem,
but we are still seeing strong inflow of people from California.
And my wife, who works in the furniture industry, tells
me that every day that Washington, Oregon and California are
sending people here by the droves, and all you have
to do is sit at a stop light and on

(12:02):
May thirtieth and you'll understand that.

Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, there's three things that are actually impeding the housing
market to continue to build in southern Arizona that I've heard,
and it's it's not water that you would think. Water's
not an issue at all from what I've heard of.
The issue is this infrastructure, having roads. Think about what's
going on with Orange Grove. Think about all the exits, like,
for example, you go to Sarrita. I saw you were

(12:26):
there on the Memorial. You take that exit. It's fine
for the most part, but if you go there in
a busy time of day, you're backed up to the freeway. Oh,
it's a very dangerous thing that the.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
Exit right, I actually stopped on the freeway.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
Huh. And so some places you have to have these
complete kind of rebuilds because the city gets too big
for what it was met for, right, the infrastructure of
the roads. And that's why we've seen this just all
all over the areas.

Speaker 3 (12:50):
We're slowly building the highways, but well right slow. Yeah,
it's not even close to Phoenix, but we're getting people
in like the Phoenixes.

Speaker 2 (12:58):
Yeah, and it's I mean, they're building that new exit
with Sunset links and they're going to have to continue
to do those type of things. The last thing is labor.
There's just not a good labor force. We changed some
type of law that gave a lot of our migrant
workers to Texas. Basically they all fled Arizona to Texas
because we weren't allowed to use them the way we're
allowed to in the past. So the cost of labor,

(13:22):
the sheer numbers of people not wanting to do those
type of jobs is making it really difficult for builders
to find people to actually do it a quality job too.

Speaker 1 (13:29):
Yeah, we're not a society of manual laborers.

Speaker 2 (13:32):
No, and I was just talking to a client how
many kids they really should look at maybe not going
into college and looking at a trade because these people
are making a lot of money coming and they don't
come with the college debt that you do when you
go to a four year and then still have to
get a degree. That you're making the same amount of
money you would as an electrician these days, the plumber,
you know, the contractors. So as many people like I

(13:53):
don't know in different societies might have saw differently in
that industry.

Speaker 3 (13:57):
It's well right now, trade schools are getting more popular nowadays.
They're cheaper, they're quicker to the workforce than they are
good paying jobs.

Speaker 1 (14:05):
Well, if you don't want to go to college, you
need to go to trade school. You just don't. Don't
go down to McDonald's and say i'll figure it. We'll
go to the military, you know, go to the military,
go to the trade school.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
We talk about that all the time, me and Dylan.
When we see the federal employees that we do business with.
I mean they have great pensions that I mean they earned, right,
I mean they did twenty years in the military. Then
a lot of them and a lot of them do
twenty years civilian after that. So they have two different pensions.
Some also have a VA pension and then they also
have been saving into their TSP and so they have

(14:35):
a quite lucrative retirement set up because they have guaranteed
income sources. They're also going to get Social Security, right,
they've been paying into that. So there's a lot of
cool things from a governmental standpoint that if you don't
know what to do coming out of high school, that's
a great place to start.

Speaker 1 (14:50):
I put myself through college and you know, dropped out
periodically to work to get some more money to go
back and do more. My brother went to the military.
It's just another road. But my point is get a skill,
whatever it is. The electrician, plumber, they do well well.

Speaker 2 (15:06):
As long as the skills, work hard, you're going to
do fine. Yeah, it doesn't really, it's just having the
right place to go. God will help you find that.
But just work hard. Yep, just work hard. That's what
this country's missing.

Speaker 1 (15:18):
Work hard. And you didn't get educated, learn how to do,
learn how to do something, be a critical thing or
just don't don't just hope it works out right.

Speaker 2 (15:26):
Yeah, that's the biggest thing is being critical.

Speaker 1 (15:29):
On the commodity front, oil is down sixty cents on
a week to sixty ninety. Guy in my gym last week,
he says, boy, when Trump gets everybody pumping oil is
really going to plunge. I got a problem with that
because a friend of mine the oil business, said it
gets blow sixty dollars, they turn off the pumps. And

(15:50):
I don't care how strong and threatening Donald Trump is,
you can't force someone to produce something this lose the money, right, right,
that might be why bounce Remember it hit fifty seven
earlier this month and then bounced off that, So it
would be it's gonna be interesting to watch.

Speaker 2 (16:07):
But well, gold for I mean gold oil just for
a while, it's been so low that you think it's
got to help a lot of the economy. Question, So
many parts of the economy's energy intensive. Low energy is
gonna help. Right, So as much as Trump might have
he's not going to force people to produce more oil. Rights, Yeah,

(16:29):
But at the end of the day, oil being at
these levels is huge for the global economy. Yes, no
matter who you are, what country doesn't matter, you.

Speaker 1 (16:36):
Know, And I think at the current level around sixty bucks,
the oil companies can make money, and the world can grow,
and it's inexpensive for businesses to function. It's a pretty
good level, which which may be why the economy continues
to be resilient. Gold down seventy two bucks thirty two
to ninety one. I thought that was interesting. Boy, it's
been volatile, hasn't.

Speaker 2 (16:56):
It been a very volatile space? Is a space that
you know sure about because it does seem like to
have some type of flag here. It does, and that's
the from a technical standpoint, A flag is it sounds
what it sounds like. You have a poll, and then
you have a couple of range trading weeks, and then
you don't really have too much.

Speaker 1 (17:15):
Up or down.

Speaker 2 (17:16):
It just kind of builds a flag looking signal, and
that's normally the sign of a next up move.

Speaker 3 (17:21):
But historically it hasn't really been a volatile sector either.
So to have it bed like this, yeah, to have
it moved this much, it's like, it's pretty interesting. It's
moving not as quite as much as bitcoin, but it's
moving a lot. Bitcoin had a great month, though.

Speaker 1 (17:35):
Speak and speaking of bitcoin, this past week, after hitting
an all time high a week ago, a little profit
taking this week down about what four or five percent?

Speaker 2 (17:45):
Yeah, it was not about three point eight or something
like that.

Speaker 1 (17:49):
The U. I only use the ETF because it gives
you a point to point. I think the ETF was
was down four for the week, six percent off of
the high, which is not much, honestly, So that's that's
something to keep an eye on. Interest rates came down
this week. The ten year went from four point fifty
two to four forty, the two year from three ninety

(18:12):
nine to three eighty nine. That's pretty good. You mentioned
Nvidia earlier, and I think probably if you talked about
the headlines of the week, the tariffs, of course are
a big headline, but everybody kind of assists on pins
and needles waiting for Nvidia. It is, without a doubt
the single corporate earnings release that is the most important

(18:32):
to the market right now, for sure, because Nvidia is
the engine that drives AI and AI has been driving
the market. So if there's something wrong with the engine,
there might be something wrong with AI, and it means
there's something we better be careful with the market. That
they came out and reported a very strong quarter above

(18:53):
analyst expectations for revenue, net income, stock immediately jumped five percent,
and then it gave it all back on Friday, and
with AI taking over so many aspects of our life
and in Vidia driving AI. As we sit here on
May thirtieth or May thirty first, actually, I guess it's
juent first today, Sunday, June first, right, and video is

(19:16):
unchanged on the year. It's done absolutely nothing.

Speaker 2 (19:19):
Up like twenty three percent this month though in video.

Speaker 1 (19:23):
Yeah, back to unchanged on the year.

Speaker 3 (19:24):
Yeah, yeah, I mean it dropped a lot in April
when everything tankd tanks. It's very voatile, so it'll drop
very quickly, but it also has the ability to come
back quickly. I mean last April it was what seventy
three dollars a share. Yeah, I think it doubled the
end to the end of the year. I mean, it's
a great company's we always talk about it. You can't
not talk about it. With the Blackwell chip the one

(19:45):
after that, all, there's just one ship ahead of everybody
right now.

Speaker 2 (19:49):
I think another thing that's really helping this market feel
comfortable somewhat with all the uncertainty that we're going through,
but it's still staying at these pretty much flat levels
for the year. Is the fact that we don't really
have to worry about the liquidity.

Speaker 1 (20:04):
Right.

Speaker 2 (20:04):
We have a lot of central banks throughout the world
actually going into a rate cutting cycle. They might not
be going into it as fast as we thought, but
we know the EU's already cut rates, the UK is
going to cut rates. A couple other central banks around
the world we'll have already and we'll continue to do
so we're are the last ones to really when we started,
but we kind of pause the whole party, and we're

(20:25):
the ones that matter, right the Federal Reserve, with that
PCE coming out so low, they have kind of the
animal they need to start in this next meeting if
they wanted to.

Speaker 1 (20:35):
They won't. They won't be they won't.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
But with the rates coming down like that, the market's
saying that it's becoming a higher probability that they will
and coming no.

Speaker 1 (20:44):
Questions, becoming a higher probability. I think the one thing
that'll cause them to stay paused, Todd is just this uncertainty.
We are in a world that we've not ever been
in before with this tariffs and all of the tariff
dog going on. We don't know how that's going to
play out. We hope it's going to play out well
for the United States. We think that that Trump is

(21:06):
a master at this. And let's face it, a ten
percent across the board tariff would bean two hundred and
fifty billion per year in the coffers. Now does that
come out of the consumer's pocket like like the left
would have you believe? Probably some of it. Probably, some
of it does. I don't think you can pass it
all along. But we're not seeing any indication yet in

(21:27):
prices that that that the tariffs are making any difference.

Speaker 2 (21:32):
Well, you did, say a couple of weeks ago, like
who is the harsh to one of the pottery bots
one of those places, how they just like ten percent
across the board.

Speaker 1 (21:43):
A couple of the furniture shorts destroyed the couple of
cent thrones of mine that just went through and raised
everything out ten percent because.

Speaker 2 (21:49):
They could, right, So that would find the thing.

Speaker 1 (21:52):
Like a COVID increases. So many of the COVID increases
were not real what's the word I want to say,
not really driven by cost. They were driven by the environment.
If you have an environment where consumers are willing to
accept higher prices, you might actually raise prices without having

(22:14):
to raise prices.

Speaker 2 (22:15):
So we've seen some of that in this economy.

Speaker 1 (22:17):
You could say we have seen some of it, although
we have not seen it come through to the bottom
line yet.

Speaker 2 (22:23):
And what about retail sales? We got that a couple
days ago, right, yep, what was that?

Speaker 1 (22:27):
I don't remember. I didn't see it.

Speaker 2 (22:28):
I think that came in if I remember, stronger than expected.
So I mean we are still buying things as Americans.

Speaker 1 (22:35):
We are. The economy continues to be resilient to try
to lost three percent this past week. Chinese shock market.
Next on the calendar. Next Friday, we get the jobs reported,
and that's pretty quiet week. Next week corporate earnings. Our
quarterly earnings are winding down. We're getting to the end
of those until the banks reported in early July. So

(22:56):
the month of June be kind of quiet. Summer tends
to be pretty good time for the market. Typically, July
has historically been the best month of the year for
the market. This year again, well, we'll say tariffs are
going to play a big part in it. May is
generally a very quiet month with a slightly downward bias.

(23:17):
Look at the best months since November of twenty three.

Speaker 2 (23:20):
We also say summer is the best time to take
advantage of our free financial planning. Feel free to just
give us a call five to zero five four four
four nine zero nine. You can also go to our
website Greenberg Financial dot com and we'll send you an
email of the stuff we'll want you to gather for
that initial meeting. Bring it in here, go with our
free financial planning software, build out that plan, and then
bring it back in for a proposal with our actual

(23:42):
suggestions and recommendations, no obligation, absolutely free of charge. It's
a great time when everything gets busy, not so busy
all think you're busy on it travels.

Speaker 1 (23:53):
Down a little bit in the summertime. A lot of
anybody that can leave does leave, and so it's a
better time to do. And you, guys, I'm watching you
guys still doing two and three of them every single day.
So a lot of people taking advantage of these free
financial plans and they are you say as well, it's free.
It can't be that great there spectacular, they're spectacular financial

(24:14):
plan You'll walk away with a better sense of where
you are. We'll be back right after this break.

Speaker 3 (24:19):
Welcome back to the Money Matters Show. I'm dealing Greenberg
here with Dave Sherwood and Todd Glick. For those of
you just tuning in, The Dow is up one point
six percent for the week. The S and P five
hundred was up one point nine percent, the Nasdaq was
up two percent, the Russell two thousand was up one
point three percent, and the equal Weight to SMP was
up one point two percent. We're pretty much flat for
the year, except for the small cap companies. They're still hurting.

(24:41):
They're down to seven percent for the year. But as
we know, it's been very valatile first five months of
the year, and it's probably going to continue a bit
as this confusion of the terriffs and the different answers
and the different things that come out, especially now with
the courts getting involved with everything with going on with
the tear the tariffs saying Trump's overstepped as boundaries and
then the Peel's.

Speaker 4 (25:00):
Court saying he didn't. We're just gonna see what goes on.

Speaker 3 (25:03):
And then we also have the ninety day delay is
going to end at the end of June, so have
an interesting June, which usually summertime is a little more flat,
might not be this year.

Speaker 1 (25:13):
The UH Todd you said you had said, Dylan, to
your point, the market participants do seem to be getting
a little bit more comfortable with the chaos.

Speaker 4 (25:24):
Yeah, it's not so new.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
I'm not seeing these reactions that we saw when it
first when Trump first dropped the chair bombs, like, oh well,
we went down twenty percent, right, and then came all
the way back, and now it's just okay, if it
might be down one hundred, it might be down two hundred.

Speaker 4 (25:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (25:38):
Those swings were like back in like twenty twenty COVID time,
whereas four percent.

Speaker 4 (25:42):
A day, Yeah, up or down.

Speaker 1 (25:44):
That was amazing.

Speaker 3 (25:45):
It was moving a lot because there's just so much
uncertainty and now it's kind of just settled in. There's
a little more security towards it because there's already countries
that have made deals and stuff like that. So people
do like the progress that's going on. It's just the
uncertainty comes with the You and China. China's saying the
US is messing with the chip constraints. US is saying

(26:08):
China is not agreeing to the temporary pause that they
have whatever they agreed with, Yeah, they're cheating with it.
At the ninety day pause, so they're not happy. Again,
it's just nobody's happy with it on the China in
the US front.

Speaker 2 (26:22):
Well, I think what's really interesting is there are always
going to be a new statue. You know, they have
all these rules in the rule book, but it doesn't
even seem like rules. They just like, yeah, we did
it because of this rule. And they're like the judge says, no,
that rule, you interpret it wrong, that you're not allowed
to do it. And then he's like, okay, well then
I'm going under this statue. Here. There's like four different
statues that give the President Trump the ability to do

(26:43):
those tariffs. Yeah, the court struck down one of his
statues he tried to use as justification, so he can
just move to the next one. Like it's a completely it's.

Speaker 4 (26:51):
All just jargon.

Speaker 3 (26:53):
How do you portray it, how do you say it is,
how it's legal or not apparently, but it's not the
actual act of it.

Speaker 4 (27:01):
The actual act of It's fine if you say it
one way, but that once for.

Speaker 2 (27:03):
A national emergency, ones for trade imbalance, like this is
just one way of justifying it.

Speaker 4 (27:11):
But it's all at the end of the day, at
the heart of it's the same thing.

Speaker 1 (27:13):
Yeah, there's a bunch of different ways. One of them
a statued I think it's two twelve or something like that,
that where he can part do whatever he wants in
the name of national security. But that's good for one
hundred and fifty days. Right then he asked to get
congressional approval. It's just a mess. The whole thing's a mess.

Speaker 2 (27:27):
Well your hair out. I mean, some people really like
that political science, but yeah, it doesn't sound that fun.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
It doesn't sound funny. You mentioned earlier. We talked earlier
about salad mayn go away, and then you mentioned getting
your swimsuit. I was watching a show this past week
and a British person was on and he said, what
kind of swim costume?

Speaker 2 (27:47):
Do you wear?

Speaker 1 (27:48):
Swim costume? So what is a swim costume? So apparently
in England that's what they call a swimming suit, is
a swimming costume. And I thought, you know, if you're
going to go to England, there's probably other you need
to know.

Speaker 2 (28:01):
Oh, don't get me started.

Speaker 1 (28:03):
So you know, a sweater is called a jumper. If
you want a cookie, it's a biscuit. If you want
a potato chip with your hamburger. You're not gonna get
potatoes if you're gonna get a crisp. And of course
your car trunk is a boot.

Speaker 2 (28:17):
Think about this one. They call their shopping carts trolley's trolleys. Wow,
why don't you just call it a shopping cart?

Speaker 1 (28:23):
So what's the happiest city in the world, Wait, in
the world, in the world. Oh, we're basing it on citizens.
We're raising it on the types of people that live there,
the governance, finland, environment, the economy, health, and mobility. Those
six incs citizens, governance, environment, economy, health, and mobility. The

(28:45):
happiest country a city in the world.

Speaker 4 (28:48):
Is capital of Finland.

Speaker 1 (28:50):
Close Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Okay. And number two is Zurich, which one.
The United States did not have any in the top ten. However,
number seventeen and this you can look at and say, well,
I'm not interested in that report. New York City was
number four seventeen. It was the highest rated US city

(29:12):
on the six categories. It's the happiest, happiest, interesting, happiest,
would socially.

Speaker 3 (29:20):
Trump Yeah, I don't think they've been to the Midwest cities.
Those people are pretty happy there.

Speaker 1 (29:23):
How about number thirty is Minneapolis.

Speaker 4 (29:25):
There we go. I see, I would think that one's
happier than New York.

Speaker 1 (29:27):
Yeah, I agree with you, because I thought that was
an interesting report.

Speaker 2 (29:30):
And who made the report? New York Times.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
I look at I put the numbers down, and then
I went, I said, I hope Todd doesn't ask me who.
I honestly did, said to myself, that's how I'll go
back and look and whatever, uh Todd, whatever. I honestly,
I honestly thought about that. Todd's gonna ask me. I'm
the air whose report that is, and I'm not gonna

(29:56):
know it. And so thanks a lot. I appreciate that,
appreciate your embarre.

Speaker 2 (30:00):
We check out the VIX. The VIX is back at
eighteen five. The VIX is the volatility in decks. Whenever
it's above really seventeen, you know that there's some market
in balance, there's some uncertainty, but we're kind of in
just a chop bucket. Whenever it's kind of in between
sixteen and twenty two, you have just a range trading
up and down. No one really knows where to go.

(30:21):
One day there's one event, the other day there's another one.
It's just a great time to sell calls.

Speaker 1 (30:28):
It is collect some premium, and why would you just
sell a call.

Speaker 2 (30:31):
So for those that don't know, there's something called options.
And if you have, say one hundred shares of Apple,
and you're not necessarily too bullish, but you want to,
you know, collect some premium, you don't think it's going
to go too much higher, you can sell for one
month out, say Apple's at one hundred, you sell one
hundred and ten dollars call, so you collect the premium.

(30:54):
Say it's a one hundred bucks that you'll collect. And
then if as long as Apple doesn't go above one
ten by the time those two that month expires, you
get the hundred and you keep the stock. If it
goes above one hundred, you'll get called out and you'll
have to give up the stock for it at one
hundred and ten dollars.

Speaker 1 (31:11):
I have a client that came to see me, and
he has six hundred thousand dollars worth of QQQ. That's
the Nasdaq that he bought many many many years.

Speaker 2 (31:21):
Ago in a taxable account.

Speaker 1 (31:22):
In a taxable account, he goes up and down, up
and down, up and down. So I said, so here's
what I'm going to do for you. I'm going to
sell covered calls against that position. I'm going to charge
you six thousand dollars a year for my service. He goes, Okay,
what can I make? Well, in the first three months
he made five thousand. Second, three months he made another
five thousand. Third, three months he broke even. We're now

(31:45):
in the fourth three months he's about to pocket another
five thousand. So in the perfect world he continues to
hold his six hundred thousand dollars with the QQQ. He
goes up and down, up and down, up and down,
and we pocket to twenty thousand dollars a year in
option premiums. So that's kind of in the perfect world. Again,
one quarter went against it is I had to close

(32:05):
it out with no profit, no loss. He doesn't have
to give up his QQQ. Ye.

Speaker 2 (32:11):
Well, because people don't understand there are different options. There's
certain people are like, well, you can get called out anytime,
and those are the American options. If you have the
European options, means that you can only get exercised when
the option actually matures. So there is certain ways to
make sure that you're not going to get called out
and realize a large unrealized gain, and that's something that
we help. Like I said, there are six hundred thousand

(32:31):
QQ we have client with two million dollars in Microsoft.
We have other clients that just have a whole bunch
of atheen. I mean, certain times it really doesn't make
sense to sell it because of the taxable impact. But
there is a way to mitigate that position in terms
of risk.

Speaker 3 (32:44):
And it only makes sense if you have it covered,
which means you have one hundred shares. If you don't
have a covered call that you're selling, that means you
are susceptible to unlimited risk. If the stock if Apple
shoots up to a thousand dollars a share during that month,
get called out, You've got to come up with that
money times one hundred times one hundred. But you if
you have one hundred shares of Apple, then you could

(33:05):
just sell those shares and can.

Speaker 2 (33:06):
All you missed out on.

Speaker 3 (33:07):
And that's what it's called exactly, and that's why it's
called covered. That's the most risky option you can do,
is a naked call that you sell. That means you
don't have one hundred shares at least of the underlying asset,
So you want to be careful if you're doing this
on your own, you want to make sure that you're
doing covered calls.

Speaker 2 (33:24):
That's why, really these sophisticated strategies aren't something that most
retail investors know how to employ, no.

Speaker 1 (33:29):
But it's something that's available. So if you're if you're
out there sitting on a large like this guy with
a QQQ, we can we can help you with that
if you'd like this to In this particular case, he
has a five hundred thousand dollars long term gain. He'd
rather not pay one hundred thousand dollars in tax to
get that five hundred thousand dollars because when he passes,

(33:50):
and he's in his late seventies, when he passes, the
cost basis becomes the cost at the time of death,
the five hundred thousand dollars gain goes.

Speaker 2 (33:58):
Away's actually just a really fascinating strategy where you do
a you create a caller strategy, which is really just
you're locking in how much you can lose and how
much you can make. You're just locking in, but then
you can loan against that with a credit access line
and you're never paying the taxes.

Speaker 1 (34:17):
I guess our point for you and I are both
making power is there just are so many different options
people don't know right well, and.

Speaker 3 (34:24):
Again these are for taxable accounts, taxable brokerage accounts.

Speaker 4 (34:27):
You don't have to worry about, or trusts.

Speaker 2 (34:29):
People people don't really know what tax biver qualified accounts mean.
I mean what a qualified account means is it's an
iray or it's like a Form one K type of
thing or wrath, those type of retirement accounts. Qualified a
taxable account is like your brokerage account or joint account
or trust account that's going to be taxable each year
with the dividends and interest as well as capital gains.

Speaker 3 (34:52):
Yeah, and then qualified is traditional iras that are tax
deferred growth or WROTH irays that are tax free growth
right or four OK's and roth four okays those are
all tax deferred and tax free growth. But that is
considered qualified. They don't get tax until you take the
money out later on if you're in tradition.

Speaker 1 (35:10):
I had a client that took two years off. His
business did really wally well, and he decided to take
two years off before he switched careers. He wanted to
do something different and he came to me and I said,
how much of the how much did you convert to wroth?
He goes, what's that? Oh? There you go. So those
are the kinds of things that you sometimes don't think

(35:30):
about because you don't necessarily know that they even exist.
We thank you for joining us on this Sunday morning.
We'll be back, hopefully getting little rain out there. We'll
be back right after this message. Welcome back to the
Money Matter Show. This is Dave. I'm here with Todd
and Dylan. Sebastian is going to be joining us as
soon as he gets back from his public service working

(35:50):
in Rio Rico. Todd, you mentioned in the first segment Bitcoin,
I'm sorry. I'm sorry, I've got the wrong note in
front of me. I want to talk about about the
One Big Beautiful Bill. Having a rough day here, having
a rough day. Okay, maybe I had to start over. Oh,
I did a really nice job on the disclaimer you did.
That was very one for one on one for three.

(36:13):
I want to talk about the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, a thousand pages, forty two amendments,
passes the House by one vote and moves to the Senate.
The bill, I think most everyone knows by now is
a fiscal nightmare, with projected deficits increased to the national

(36:34):
debt of somewhere between three and five trillion dollars. And
the first thought that occurred to me and probably occurred
to a few others, is how did an administration that
was elected to bring austerity let this happen? I mean,
I think it's a pretty pretty dark good question. The

(36:56):
bill's key feature involves making the twenty seventeen tax cuts
perm it and increasing funding for border security, two things
that we really really want. But to get those two
very important things, the administration had to give up a lot.
And that's even to get the fellow Republicans on board
who ought to be on board with this austerity but
don't seem to be. Bill's now in the hands of

(37:18):
the Senate, is likely to face more disco responsibility, might
get some cuts. What Trump hopes to come out of
this with is border funding and the twenty seventeen tax
cuts being.

Speaker 2 (37:31):
The biggest thing. It's the twenty seventeen tax cuts. If
you extend that, then you can see how that's going
to add to our deficits.

Speaker 1 (37:38):
That that's a part of it. But that's that's not
what's adding to the deficit. With adding to deficits as
all the other things.

Speaker 2 (37:46):
But it is just inherently because the projection was that
was going to end at this year, so him at
extending that at all or making it permanent immediately adds
to the deficit calculation.

Speaker 1 (37:56):
There were there were many other things added to the
bill to try to get people on board. Elon said,
the bill undermines everything dose has been doing, and eminent
silly things. Things you look at and go, Increase in
the standard deduction, why is that necessary at this point?

(38:17):
Increase in the child tax credit, why is that necessary?
Increase in the salt cap.

Speaker 2 (38:23):
He's big into the salt cap.

Speaker 1 (38:24):
Salt cat. He love that. Oh no, of course, because
he pays so much in state. And do you want
to explain what the salt cap is.

Speaker 2 (38:31):
I don't know too much about it. I just know
he talks a lot about it.

Speaker 4 (38:34):
The salt is state in local taxes, state and local taxes.

Speaker 3 (38:37):
So they're trying to raise it from a ten thousand
dollars reduction to forty thousand dollars.

Speaker 1 (38:42):
Right, So if you're in New York or some of
the more expensive areas in the country, mostly Democrat areas.
You're limited to ten ten thousand dollars in what you
can deduct on this salt. Well, they increased it, particularly
for those earning less than five hundred thous dollars. Okay,
So the decrease in assault tax means that people can

(39:04):
take a bigger and bigger deduction. The estate tax maximum
it's currently thirteen point nine to nine million. There aren't
a lot of estates out there with thirteen point nine
to nine million. They raised it to thirty million.

Speaker 2 (39:19):
And that's thirteen point nine nine individual, yeah, twenty seven married, Yeah,
and then it.

Speaker 1 (39:25):
Goes to fifteen million, thirty million. Why why do we
have to do that? Tax breaks on tips, Like anybody's
paying tax on tips?

Speaker 2 (39:33):
Yeah, who's reporting overtime?

Speaker 1 (39:35):
No tax on overtime.

Speaker 2 (39:36):
But the one thing that you will be is like
I worked at a country club and they reported my
tips like it was electronic tips. Every all the tips
were electronic. So those if you're not paying time, that's
a big deal for the people that get their tips
to their paycheck.

Speaker 1 (39:52):
The a personal exemption increase for seniors, car loan interest deductions,
a lot of stuff in there that was put in there.
Apparently he could vote. And it's going to be really
interesting to watch the Senate because what the Senate is
charged with doing is getting rid of all of the work.

Speaker 2 (40:13):
I think that's exactly what it is, and it's hey,
we promised you, and we're not going to go back
on our promises. But it's going to be the next
layer of government that prevented us from problems.

Speaker 4 (40:24):
The people in the House like, see, we didn't do
it too, the Senate did. That's not our.

Speaker 1 (40:28):
Fault three to five trillion.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
And it won't be the whole Senate. It will be
two or three senators they're throw under the bus for not.

Speaker 4 (40:36):
Allow or political science.

Speaker 1 (40:38):
Yeah, you think it'll come down to.

Speaker 2 (40:39):
That most likely. You know, the Democrats aren't going to
vote for it, so you have to have all Republicans agree,
and that's not going to happen. So you're gonna have
two or three that Trump's going to talk a lot
of smack about, and you're gonna try to twist their arms,
and I think he will make one or two twists,
and I think eventually you're going to get some type
of a bill passed. But you're right, there's gonna be
a lot of trimming and some of this, Like you

(41:00):
can make a case and we talked about this too
and last week, like you get a bigger credit for
kids on taxes, right, And at one point it's like, Okay,
it makes sense, we need more kids. But other point
it's like you don't want people just having kids to
get a tax credit, right, that's not good either.

Speaker 1 (41:15):
So it just seems like there isn't a lot of austerity. No,
i'd refrain that there's not as much austerity as you'd
hope for.

Speaker 2 (41:23):
Yeah, I mean, let's not compare. I mean what we
should compare. I mean, if you're talking with the Biden administration,
at least the money that is being raised is going
to like actual causes that matter, Like we're going to
be funding our border, We're going to be building things
that actually is going to help our nation in the future.
One of the things that you could possibly see is

(41:45):
like we pop maybe don't need is that golden dome thing,
because that's going to be pretty expensive too. And that's
like another what seven hundred billion?

Speaker 1 (41:55):
You can't do Golden dome right now? I'm sorry, you
can't do it.

Speaker 2 (41:59):
It's like you saw like you're telling your wife you can't.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
Actually, I was actually thinking about that as I was saying, right, right,
but you know, good luck telling my wife she can't
do something. You know that's not ever worked out real
well for me. Yeah. Well, we talked about the economy
being resilient. One of the most resilient indicators is merger
and acquisition activity m and A. We're witnessing m and

(42:27):
A activity increasing. Motorola Solutions is buying Selvis Technologies, Z
Scale buying Red Canary, Whole Logic agreed to buy A
be acquired by TPG by Blackstone Sketchers being taken private.
This is not the kind of activity that you typically
see when you're concerned about the economic backdrop.

Speaker 2 (42:51):
Yeah, that is very interesting, I agree, But wasn't there
just like a leading business indicator that was kind of
south though not that I saw the CEO's feeling, so
you got to look that up.

Speaker 1 (43:02):
So he was, well, they got to be feeling good
because their M and A activity doesn't increase in an
environment where CEOs are concerned about the future. If you're
concerned about the future, you're not wanting to spend ten
billion dollars to buy a competitor. You're wanting to pulling
your horns and maybe lay some people off.

Speaker 3 (43:19):
And well, Logic did not. They rejected that TPG offer.
It's out there, but they rejected that sixteen billion dollar offer.

Speaker 1 (43:27):
Well, they agreed to it initially, when I don't know
the report I was reading said they agreed to be acquired.

Speaker 4 (43:32):
The only report I saw us said they rejected it.

Speaker 1 (43:34):
Kind of so so you're taking like five words out
of my paragraph of if I want to get it.

Speaker 4 (43:40):
Right, I think said they agreed to get acquired when
they didn't.

Speaker 3 (43:45):
Well, the activity is still up. I agree with that.
I'm just saying I read that one the other day.

Speaker 2 (43:50):
The CEO confidence in deck slightly upticked in quarter to
twenty twenty five, but still below historical averages.

Speaker 1 (43:56):
And the only report, the only report you need to
know is the m and A activity and impactor. I
saw a recommend here to here.

Speaker 2 (44:03):
First, folks, that's the only activity you need to know.
It's the only report you need to know is what
the merger and activity.

Speaker 3 (44:10):
What makes sense because in twenty like in twenty twenty,
merger and acquisitions were close to zero.

Speaker 4 (44:15):
Nobody was doing anything.

Speaker 3 (44:16):
Yeah, and then they picked back up when the markets
and the economy started picking back up.

Speaker 4 (44:20):
It is a good indicaty.

Speaker 2 (44:21):
So we had the spat craze, which is the different
indicator during the twenty one era. Yeah, and then you
and then you had you know, rate cutting cycle UMAs
through the twenty three and twenty four areas, so.

Speaker 3 (44:32):
The backs have died off. I mean that was that crazy. Literally,
that craze was crazy.

Speaker 1 (44:37):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (44:37):
Yeah, when you just it was a blank check by
these companies just to take any company public. They would
shoot up one hundred plus percent on the debut day
and then just tank back to their actual valuation. And
by twenty twenty two, these companies were at penny stocks
like they should be because they had no no valuation,
they no ORNs know anything.

Speaker 2 (44:55):
There wasn't too many spacks that actually were successful off
the whole run, and we don't see too many not
long time now coming out, which it's a better area.
I mean, we saw IPOs are having a pretty good
run too.

Speaker 1 (45:04):
You know.

Speaker 2 (45:05):
The one we have looked into this spac space is
that CEP that can tour equity partners. Apparently they're getting
taken over by Jack Mahlers who owns Strike and it's
a bitcoin it's gonna be a bitcoin company, and they're
actually gonna this this is kind of cool day. Instead
of earnings per share, they're gonna report in bitcoin per share,
and their job is to accumulate more bitcoin on an

(45:28):
operating basis and not just be a treasury but an
actual bitcoin business. And it's just a completely different frame
of it.

Speaker 1 (45:35):
It's amazing how often I see a headline where someone's
buying bitcoin. I was trying to think game game Stop.
The company that, in theory has stores that sell games
right in theory has become a meme stock. And of
course they came out last last week and said they
bought five thousand bitcoin, and stock initially jumped in and
it fell off.

Speaker 2 (45:57):
I mean, do you know how much micro Strategy owns
and coin? How many bitcoin they own?

Speaker 1 (46:01):
I can't imagine.

Speaker 2 (46:02):
Guess there's only twenty one million?

Speaker 1 (46:05):
How many how much of it they out the twenty
one million they own?

Speaker 2 (46:08):
Yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (46:09):
Quarter million.

Speaker 2 (46:10):
They have four hundred and eighty five million, four and
eighty five thousand, sorry four in eighty five thousand, totally
said that wrong, but yeah, I mean almost five it's
it's an insane amount, okay, and he's just keeps buying it.

Speaker 1 (46:24):
Wow. Wow, that's absolute, that's absolutely that's mind ball, guys,
a mind ball.

Speaker 2 (46:30):
And then you think about black Rock and Fidelity. They
have to buy the bitcoin if people are going to
buy their etf right, because it's a spot ets. So
if they too many people buy it, they have to
buy more bitcoin to offset that, or they have to
buy the contracts, which inherently make the price go up.

Speaker 1 (46:43):
I was watching I was at the gym. I I
like to work out outside, but I was at the gym.
I like to go to the gym like every two
weeks so they don't revoke my membership. And I've got
one of those free memberships from the Silver Slippers. And
they were holding up a whiteboard and the sound was on,
but it looked like they were saying that the value
of publicly traded bitcoin is equivalent to the GDP of Canada.

(47:09):
It's not about right.

Speaker 2 (47:10):
Now, yeah, I mean the value of all the public
devel bitcoin now is more valuable than Amazon. The only
company that's worth less than is Navidia, Apple and Microsoft.

Speaker 1 (47:20):
You're back right after this break with more of the
money matter show.

Speaker 2 (47:25):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Toglik.
I'm here with David Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg and Sebastian Bora scene.
This week, the Dow was up one point six percent,
the SMP was up one point nine the NASDAC led
the way higher two percent, the rust of two thousand
was up one point three percent, and the equal weight
was up one point two percent. Now, the equ weight
did lag this week, but overall in the year today

(47:46):
it's actually beating the SMP. It's up point seven for
the year, the smps up point five. Most people don't
really expect that because they're like, we talk to people
all the time, the market's downstill right, market's terrible. No,
the market's flat. It's actually up now for.

Speaker 1 (47:58):
The years most people do.

Speaker 2 (48:01):
They don't know that, and it's we'll have these conversations
all the time. They're like, I don't even want to
check my phone. K I'm like, now you should, because
it's it's right back to where you It's fine, it's
right back where it was.

Speaker 1 (48:10):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (48:10):
The Doubt is still down for the year, but it's
only thirty stocks. United Healthcare really killed that thing, and
there's other bad companies like Nike and don't get us started.
NASDAK is down one percent because of the risk related assets.
And the one that's really lacked this year is that
Russell two thousands. Those your small cap names, and they're
gonna be a least to join the party, especially when
there's so much uncertainty still in this economy. Down seven

(48:33):
point two year to date.

Speaker 1 (48:35):
It's a it's amazing. I think the most amazing thing
for me when I put the report together was the
S and P five hundred is now in positive territory
for the year. With all the chaos, all of the
tariff tantrums, the back and forth, the twenty percent drop.

Speaker 2 (48:48):
Yeah, I mean, I can't tell you at least ten
different conversations this week where the sentiment was the market's bad,
and I had to inform them that no, it's actually
flat for the year.

Speaker 1 (48:59):
Right, And it's because they turn on the news. They're
hearing they're hearing with left wing commentators trying to diminish Trump,
trying to to talk up their own cause.

Speaker 2 (49:10):
And with this type of stuff with uneducated people, you
can really make them believe whatever.

Speaker 1 (49:15):
You want pretty easy. I mean, who.

Speaker 2 (49:19):
Knows, no one teaches them what what it is anyways,
so you can just tell them whatever it needs. They
do have to be based in any fact.

Speaker 1 (49:27):
There's no there's an whole saying that if you say
something often enough, it becomes fact, right right, that's what
they do, That's what they do, exactly what they do,
and it becomes becomes fact. Well, you know, we watched
the Newsmax with interest. It's a growing news outlet and
went public on March thirty first, jumped to two hundred

(49:48):
and sixty five dollars this year. We couldn't believe that
came public at what was it forty I'm remembering.

Speaker 3 (49:54):
Roughly, yeah, around there, and it shot up so much.
He was like one of those facts that were just
talking about.

Speaker 1 (49:59):
Yeah. Yeah. That plunged back into the teens, down eighteen
percent on Friday on news. Certain holders are going to
sell stock that accounts for fifty percent of the outstanding shares,
fifty percent of the outstanding shares twenty five days normal volume.
If they do sell the stock, I mean, if you

(50:20):
own the stock, you might want to think about something here.
If you've got that much stock being sold into the
open market, seems like it would have to weigh on
those shares, wouldn't it.

Speaker 2 (50:32):
Yeah, someone really wants their payday.

Speaker 1 (50:34):
Yeah they do. Now, you typically have a six month lockup,
so that's not over till September or October first. So
it's not those people. I don't know who's who it
is that's selling all these shares.

Speaker 2 (50:48):
Maybe the people that made it go up like crazy.

Speaker 1 (50:50):
Yeah, let's talk a little bit about evs because I
got some breaking news here on EB.

Speaker 2 (50:55):
All right, well, we're talking about with EV's.

Speaker 1 (50:57):
Twenty five years ago, Toyota introduced Americans to hybrids Prius
the first hybrid Toyota is now and back in April
of twenty twenty four, their new CEO said, I'm going
all electric, go ahead.

Speaker 2 (51:14):
I just realized, hybrid is almost as old as me.

Speaker 1 (51:17):
Hybrid is almost as old as you. Ybrids older than you.

Speaker 2 (51:20):
It's actually old twenty five years twenty four.

Speaker 1 (51:23):
You're twenty four.

Speaker 4 (51:24):
So hybrid's been around for a while. They've been around
for Toyoda mastered it.

Speaker 1 (51:28):
Toyota. Back in April of twenty four, Toyota's CEO, who
is not a member of the Toyota family, for the
first time in a while, came out and said I'm
going all EV. Remember I'm gonna convert. We're going We're
gonna go aggressively towards electric.

Speaker 3 (51:43):
Wasn't that like right after the previous CEO said we're
not going EV's ever, we're keeping hybrids, and then the
new guy takes overs as we're going EV.

Speaker 1 (51:51):
Yeah, he did say he wanted to go EV and
but now they seem to have pivoted. They're talking about
hybrid again. Hybrid currently counts for about two percent of
Toyota sales. They want to bring that to twenty percent
over the next to five years. So they're really going.

Speaker 2 (52:06):
It only accounts for two percent of their house.

Speaker 1 (52:08):
Yep, yep, hybrid is two percent of toiler sales.

Speaker 2 (52:11):
Wow, and the Tacoma must be this thing I'm not
thinking about that isn't a plug in Now the rage
is plug in hybrid? Well, no, think about Prius. Are
are we talking plug in hybrids or not? Are we
not considering No?

Speaker 1 (52:22):
No, no, we're talking to hybrids, just hybrids. No, the
plug in hybrids didn't exist.

Speaker 2 (52:26):
That okay, so we are okay, we are talking Prius then.

Speaker 1 (52:28):
Yeah, I guess Prius says, yeah, it would be the
predominant one.

Speaker 2 (52:32):
Yeah, that was the original.

Speaker 1 (52:33):
There's there's four or five different ones out there, but
Prius it was first, and the Chevy volt was another one,
the BMW I three I think it was. There were
several mouths there. But my problem with the plug in,
which is the trend the plug in hybrids, is that

(52:53):
you have to plug in every single night because your
range is thirty miles maybe forty miles, and if you
just run a few errands around town, you're gonna burn
that up. So you've got if your goal is to
use electricity, use the electric aspect of the car the
majority of the time, then you're gonna have to plug

(53:14):
in every single night. In addition to that, you're going
to have to buy gas. And if you don't buy
gas for a long period of time, let's say you're
really really good at this thirty miles, stand under thirty
miles every day, then your gas is gonna seller and
you have to drain your gas tank. Start over. Anyway. Uh,
there's there's a there's a new a new girl in town. Uh.

(53:36):
The e R e V. The ER e V is
the Extended Range Electric Vehicle and it looks like it's
poised for a comeback with new models coming from Hyundaid,
jeep Ram, and Volkswagging, along with other manufacturing. The idea
is that these will have a range of up to
five hundred miles, and one hundred miles of that be

(54:00):
the battery. So what they're doing is they're making the
battery larger than on the plug in hybrids, and the
gasoline engine smaller than what's on the plug in hybrids,
so it runs predominantly on electricity, with the engine then
providing additional charging to the larger battery. It's a kind

(54:25):
of a one off. It's interesting because the Shivvold and
the BMWi three both had that technology, and both of
those they've stopped making those because of lack of consumer demand.
But now they're bringing them back. And I'm thinking to myself,
have we gotten comfortable enough now with electric vehicles and

(54:46):
yet we have range anxiety? So if you can get
me something that will get me one hundred miles on
the battery, I might go for that.

Speaker 2 (54:56):
Yeah, I guess so, because what I was thinking in
my head is like, I mean, the hybrid that I
have right now, that's not plugging, it's just a hybrid.
That charges.

Speaker 1 (55:04):
Its just standard hybrid.

Speaker 2 (55:05):
Right, it has a six hundred mile range, Right, standard hybrid.
I mean if I still have to get gas on
the e r V, I have less range.

Speaker 1 (55:16):
The environmental issues would be the reason you'd go with a.

Speaker 2 (55:19):
Plug, guest, So that would be the only reason when
it's still.

Speaker 1 (55:21):
Just Sebastian's back in the house. Hey, Sebastian, welcome back
from REACA. We were talking about you. They had me
read the They had me read the disclaimer, and I
was told it was the best ever.

Speaker 3 (55:35):
He's actually got to go too, because he's going to
go get his hybrid, his new Toyota cameray for that
gets fifty miles per gallon.

Speaker 4 (55:42):
Oh yeah, pick it up. Is it a hybrid hybrid?
Fifty miles per gallon?

Speaker 1 (55:48):
Like you're just saying, yeah, fifty miles per gallon. No,
no concern for the environment. But enjoy yourself, Dave.

Speaker 2 (55:53):
The freaking electric grid runs on fossil fuels. Get over yourself.

Speaker 1 (55:57):
Goodness, gracious, that's not my fault. The listeners know every
time you that's not my fault.

Speaker 2 (56:02):
Well, look, don't be a virtue signaling guy just because
it makes you sleep better.

Speaker 1 (56:07):
Starbucks Starbucks. Get this stock is twenty seven percent office high.
Now this is a turnaround story. Brian Nichols trying from Chipotle,
the former CEO of Chipotle, very highly thought up CEO,
became the Starbucks CEO. The stock immediately jumped up. It
has since backed off twenty seven percent from those highs

(56:27):
as it's a work in progress, it's gonna take some time.

Speaker 2 (56:31):
They like the sharpieas and then they didn't ye.

Speaker 3 (56:34):
He's pivoting from the trajectory that Starbucks was on for
the last five years of like we talked about all
the time, the Dutch Bros. Model of in and out
trying to get rid of inside sit downs. Anyways, he
immediately pivoted from there to go back to old school
coffee shop where he wants you to hang out in
a Starbucks right and do your work there and get
a free cup if you're sitting there for a free refill.

Speaker 4 (56:56):
It's gonna take some time if it's gonna work well.

Speaker 1 (56:59):
And he has no international experience. That was one of
my controls. That was my only negative about Brian when
he came on, is this guy's got no international experience
and Starbucks has some serious international issues.

Speaker 4 (57:10):
I would say so.

Speaker 1 (57:12):
And so now they're they're talking about trying to spin
off their Chinese operation to private equity and various other investors.

Speaker 3 (57:19):
Yeah, or it's like, do you keep the Chinese operation
the same way? And does the US like to sit
down in a coffee shop more than international people?

Speaker 1 (57:26):
And the competition in China dealing is off the charge.

Speaker 4 (57:29):
Because they have what is it lucking coffee?

Speaker 1 (57:31):
Yeah? Is there a big one, yeah, and several others,
but it's it's lucky is the big, big, big price
price wise there, they're hard to compete with. The point
I brought the why I brought this up is the
stocks twenty seven percent off is high and Cowen decided
this is a great place to go from buy to hold.

(57:52):
Now it's dropped twenty seven percent. Turnaround story. You got
one of the best CEOs in the world. You want
to sell it now?

Speaker 4 (57:58):
When I just hold it?

Speaker 1 (57:59):
Actually, actually that I shouldn't say so, they said, hold, Yeah,
but you know where were you twenty seven percent ago?

Speaker 4 (58:05):
They're always behind the ball. It seems a lot of.

Speaker 1 (58:07):
Animals are, you know. And I when I see an
animals take a good call, I reach out to them
and say good.

Speaker 3 (58:11):
You know, well, it confuses me too when they they
got a price target one hundred and fifty dollars a
share and the stocks currently trading like four hun and
twenty dollars a share.

Speaker 4 (58:19):
And then they come out and announced, we're.

Speaker 3 (58:20):
Gonna raise our price target to one hundred and eighty
dollars a share. Yeah it's at four to twenty. Yeah
it's a little over your price target anyway, yeah, a
little bit, a little bit.

Speaker 2 (58:28):
Well then that speaks to I think people not realizing
how the market works. Some people think it's just purely
based on euphoria, like Game Stop went up, and they're
just like, the market's a casino, you can't trust it.
It's not true. I mean, there is an actual valuation
for each asset. It's just the market can trade way
above that.

Speaker 3 (58:48):
And that's like, that's the thought behind it. They raise
their price target to onoin eighty, which means they still
think it's should come back down to his actual valuation,
but rather than one hundred and fifty dollars a share,
it's one hundred and eighty dollars a share, so it
comes down a little less. But it's still just funny
to me when I see that that it's raising the
price TARGT when it's still three hundred dollars ahead of it.

Speaker 2 (59:04):
Well, I just think you know, also, I'm sure you've
heard this all the time in your career, Like people
just assume that the stock market is literally just going
to the casino. You're putting black or red.

Speaker 4 (59:13):
You're not playing in the stock market.

Speaker 2 (59:15):
I mean, I guess if you're doing penny stocks or
zero dated options or something, you can make it like that.

Speaker 4 (59:21):
Look at warm Buffett, for example, that's not a casino
for him.

Speaker 1 (59:24):
Yeah, He's always say the vast majority of people that
have account with brokerage firms do not think that. I
believe that there are a group of people that do.

Speaker 4 (59:35):
Robin Hood was huge.

Speaker 1 (59:37):
Generally, people who really favor real estate think the stock
market is the casino, and people that favor stocks think
real estate is boring. Yeah, generally one or the other.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
Well, because the real estate, for the people who know
it are in it, it's their slow, conservative, safe play,
and then the stock market moves faster, so they want
to play it as a casino.

Speaker 1 (59:56):
Well, in your real estate is not the value of
your real estate on the paper every night. Yeah, I mean,
imagine if it was oh my goodness.

Speaker 3 (01:00:04):
Yeah, you don't have one house on the east side
going up one thousand percent value overnight and then one
house on the west side dropping one hundred percent over
in two hours.

Speaker 1 (01:00:13):
Right, I mean, you can allull yourself into thinking everything's good.
You know, yeah, fine, you know. And I think the
most successful stock market investors I've seen over the years,
which god would include the most successful bitcoin traders I've
seen over the years, are people that just forget about it,

(01:00:33):
don't pay a lot of attention to it. Might look
at a monthly statement, might not.

Speaker 2 (01:00:38):
And I think also we talked about it last week,
it's that religious faith, you know, the faith you have
in religion where you're just like, I don't I'm just
gonna have the faith. That's what you have to have
in some of these investments. Like you said, when Google
came out, no one wanted you can give it away.
But if you had the faith and you just set
it and forget it, put ten thousand in that thing,

(01:00:59):
you'd be just on right now.

Speaker 1 (01:01:00):
Right.

Speaker 2 (01:01:00):
So there's a lot of those companies that they sound
like great ideas, but that you have this emotional reaction
to some news headlines some whatever that came out that
makes you overthink it. But if you look back on
like a ten to fifteen twenty year period, you realize
all the opportunity costs you missed out on. You might
have made the fifty percent gain, but it could have
been twenty five hundred percent because you just didn't just

(01:01:21):
have the faith in the long term. I mean, you're
investing for the long.

Speaker 1 (01:01:24):
Term, sure, but I think beyond faith you have evidence.
You have absolute empirical evidence. With the stock market, I
mean I was in this business when they now hit
one thousand for the first time. We had now one
thousand caps, you know, so well a lot of us
I'm not one hundred years old, No, a lot of us.

Speaker 3 (01:01:42):
Because nowadays technical analysis has taken off his most popular
one because it's fun to read charts, it's fun to
guess on the what the stock's going to do based
off charts or based off the Fibonacci's and different things
like that. But the other way to do it, which
is what Warren Buffett does, is fundamental analysis, and that's
reading the evaluation, reading their financials, reading are they growing,
are they growing their profits or they grow in their

(01:02:03):
business at all. And that's the business way of looking
at it. That's the more boring side of it because
it's slower. But I mean it works if you're believing
the company because of what they show on their financials.
Technical analysis works, as we always say, because there's millions
of people that do it. We see we hit a
support level. We're one of ten million people that see
that support level, like, okay, we're going to see if

(01:02:23):
if it breaks through it, or if it drops below it,
then it's going to drop to the next one. We
can hold off and buy it, or if it breaks
through the resistance, we're thinking it goes up to a
new high. But that's because everybody's looking at it the
same way. That's the only reason in the sense. But
it's more that's quicker.

Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
I also think it's because we live in a simulation
or it's God's hand. The technicals just work too well.

Speaker 1 (01:02:45):
No one thing. One thing. We'll say that if you
have a Fidelity account or a Vanguard account and you're
running it yourself, there's an entertainment value that you can't measure.
You get entertainment value out of that. I have had
clients for the years that had significant account with us,
but a smaller account at Fidelity, Fidelity or Vanguard that

(01:03:09):
they just have fun with the entertainment value of investing
in a stock market.

Speaker 3 (01:03:14):
We do have clients like that where they give it
like we manage their retirement accounts getting ready for the
income that they're going to be produced, but they want
to keep their one account because it's fun to them
and they want to have their fun and.

Speaker 4 (01:03:24):
Just like more power to you. Enjoy it.

Speaker 3 (01:03:26):
If you ever want to bounce ideas off of us,
call us, but well we'll be the safe side.

Speaker 4 (01:03:30):
You go be a.

Speaker 3 (01:03:31):
Little reckless with your little acount that you like to
go have fun with.

Speaker 1 (01:03:35):
I said last week with a ninety seven year old
client that wanted us to be more aggressive, but we
can't because our producer responded anxiety. I said, do you
go ahead and take a quarter million open an account
with Vanguard, have fun.

Speaker 2 (01:03:45):
And for people that don't know like we have an
investment committee that we meet every two weeks and we
discuss our ideas because we are a team approach, so
how we come up with new trade ideas is just
talking to one another. When we come up with our
own individual ideas, we subscribe to different investment research newsletters

(01:04:05):
that come up with their own ideas. We obviously do
like Dylan set fundamental and technical analysis, and that's how
we all bounce ideas off each other to figure out
where we want to be next.

Speaker 1 (01:04:17):
And we meet formerly every two weeks. We meet informally
every single day. I see you every day, every single day.

Speaker 2 (01:04:23):
That's right. That's why I've been saying every.

Speaker 1 (01:04:25):
Single day, and that that beautiful head of white hair
walks in that's me.

Speaker 2 (01:04:30):
One day it's gonna be a ghost, and I'm not
you're gonna scare me.

Speaker 1 (01:04:34):
I'll come back.

Speaker 2 (01:04:35):
You're gonnat me.

Speaker 1 (01:04:35):
I'm gonna come back and haunt you because you deserve it.
Apple talk about between a rock and a hard place
for Tim Cook, can you imagine trying to run a
company like Apple, whether it's on again, off again, tear IFFs,
the courts involved. Now, you don't know what the next
tomorrow is going to look like, let alone next month
or next quarter, next year. It was up two and

(01:04:57):
a half percent on Monday after that National Economic Console.
I I'm sorry. It was up two and a half
percent on Monday after National Economic Console director Kim has
It works with the Trump administration said they do not
want to harm Apple with their tariffs. He said, everybody's
trying to make it seem like it's catastrophic if there's
a tiny little terrorifts on them, right terif on them

(01:05:17):
right now? Well, it's twenty five percent, not a tiny
little tariff, Tim, He said, we're trying to negotiate down
the tariff. So they're starting with twenty five percent, trying
to get Apple to agree to some smaller amount. Right,
That's typical Trump, he says. In the end, we'll see
what happens. We'll see what the update is. We don't
want to harm Apple. Don't want to harm Apple. So
it's up two and a half percent. Stock move hire

(01:05:39):
on Thursday after that court ruling quickly reversed. After the
court reverse the ruling, port Tim Cook, I just can't
I just can't imagine.

Speaker 4 (01:05:47):
It was a reason that May was their worst month
in about two years.

Speaker 1 (01:05:51):
Yeah, I can't imagine trying to run that company doing
right now.

Speaker 3 (01:05:53):
Yeah, be tough, especially when you're trying to innovate too.
They've been having struggles with innovation, like where.

Speaker 1 (01:05:58):
Do I build factories? Where do I get part what's
acceptable to Trump? What's acceptable to my shareholders.

Speaker 4 (01:06:05):
Yeah, their last two big ideas kind of failed off.

Speaker 1 (01:06:08):
Tim's a zillionaire who's got to be in his sixties.
I think I might just walk here, have it. Thank
you for thank you for the memories.

Speaker 2 (01:06:16):
Yeah, and I think long term Apple's biggest threat, in
my opinion, would be Meta.

Speaker 1 (01:06:23):
Does she where Meta InCD deal with a company that's
involved in defense.

Speaker 4 (01:06:30):
Volunteer No, like, are you Glenn? Are you Glynn or something?

Speaker 3 (01:06:36):
The founder is actually he's he found it Oculus that
Meta bought to twenty seventeen. They bought for two billion dollars.
They had a huge falling out. That founder was not
happy with zucker Berry. They weren't happy with how the
deal went down or something like that, and then he
went to go do this defense company and now they're
back to being friends.

Speaker 4 (01:06:53):
An inc. The deal last.

Speaker 1 (01:06:54):
Week, Yeah, I mean kind of the stock didn't react.
What did it to that news? Not really, I mean,
which is kind of surprising because that seems like.

Speaker 3 (01:07:01):
They're saying it should help the reality labs that has
been not doing that great. It's been losing money over
the last couple of years, but it hasn't really But
it's been okay to investors because they think for the future.
So this is the first step towards helping the reality labs.

Speaker 1 (01:07:15):
It looks like privately owned company to help them create
VR and AR devices such as headsets for the US Army.

Speaker 4 (01:07:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:07:26):
Well, like I said, that guy invented Oculus, what Meta
has as their virtual reality system?

Speaker 1 (01:07:32):
So you are you saying that he's involved.

Speaker 3 (01:07:35):
The guy who invented Oculus sold the metaverse. He owns
this are you go company?

Speaker 1 (01:07:40):
So do they do they build that headsets ND for
for Meta?

Speaker 3 (01:07:45):
Not anymore Oculus. Oculus was sold to Meta.

Speaker 1 (01:07:51):
So how does I'm confused? How does Aurelius come into.

Speaker 4 (01:07:54):
This same founder?

Speaker 3 (01:07:55):
Ye ah, okay, I got but the founder had a
huge falling out with Meta when they sold off got it,
So it's interesting now they're back to it working together.

Speaker 4 (01:08:04):
That was That was the big deal.

Speaker 1 (01:08:06):
It seemed like a pretty good deal. Another great earnings
report on Friday, actually Thursday afternoon Costco. Yeah, the court
of the earnings and revenue slightly topped estimates. Sales were
up eight percent. Analysts start thinking that Tariff's, the economic
worries and rising prices could drive more customers to Costco.

(01:08:26):
So the stock then the stock absolutely every single quarter,
no matter how great the earnings report is, and it's
always great, the stock always drops the day after earnings.
And Friday it was up. I don't remember the last
time that Costco was up the day after reporting earnings.

Speaker 2 (01:08:46):
Well, I guess because they just had a bad April
and it's just continuing its strong May.

Speaker 1 (01:08:52):
It's just been a back to two I think it was. Yeah,
it's been just been a great stock right.

Speaker 2 (01:08:57):
Went down to eighty eight sixty something that yeah, yeah,
shot right back up. And that's what we're talking about.
You know, when you get those dips and everyone's so
scared and it seems like you can't buy anything. It's
those companies that word up there and our quality companies
but are just too high to buy. Now. When you
get to the opportunity, you can't miss it. You can't
miss it up because then when it's right back then

(01:09:19):
you're trying to buy it all the time. It's a
tough game to play if you don't get your opportunities
when you can.

Speaker 1 (01:09:24):
There's an article that one of the best things the
money manager brings to the table is getting the emotion
out of it. So when we see a Costco, if
Costco were to drop to eight hundred again, we would
be all over it, whereas the natural tendency would be
I got to get out and run away.

Speaker 2 (01:09:42):
Yeah, literally, April second puts on the tariff. April seventh,
we use a firm by spy QQQ. By the middle
of May, we're getting out of it, you know, right, understanding.
And now it's the chop bucket. Something that most people
we talked about this day this week. Most people don't
even know the markets. Back to even No.

Speaker 1 (01:10:01):
I think if he went out there and asked the
average person out of the stock market doing and not good? Yeah,
not good.

Speaker 2 (01:10:07):
Don't check your for one ks I heard this week,
don't check your phone k Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:10:10):
And again it's the it's the media. And like Jim
Morrison said, do you control the mines? Whoever controls the mine?
Media controls the mines?

Speaker 2 (01:10:19):
Right, So what about Elon? Is he leaving? Is he
kind of leaving?

Speaker 1 (01:10:23):
He's getting some heat from his large investors. They sent
a letter to the board of directors saying Elon has
to be in the office forty hours a week and
we're we're getting tired of this. Yeah, no, because because
Tesla sales were down forty nine percent in April in Europe,
European sales were down forty nine percent. Stock responded by

(01:10:44):
rallying seven percent. It's one hundred and eighty five times earnings.
There's no reason to own the stock unless you think
robotics in a robo taxi is going to become more
important than the car sales because the car sales are
not doing well.

Speaker 2 (01:10:58):
Robotoxy coming out next month, yep.

Speaker 1 (01:11:00):
And I think the whole robotax the thing is going
to be a giant bust. That's me personally.

Speaker 2 (01:11:04):
I'm leaning towards that sentiment. Yeah, I don't think they
definitely woondn't be surprising him wrong.

Speaker 1 (01:11:10):
Law, But several large investors pend a letter this past
week to the boarder directors and it's in the board
you're dropping the ball here. Elon's not in the office.
He's in Washington doing whatever and or playing around with
the boring company or with and not paying attention.

Speaker 2 (01:11:28):
To test any one of his five companies.

Speaker 1 (01:11:30):
Man, look, you're not paying attention to Tesla anyway, and
look at kind of results you're getting from him not
paying attention to Testla. The car sales are dropping like
a rock. Getting back in the office forty yards a
week or else. Anyway, we'll be back with the next
two segments right after this break. Welcome back to the
Money Matters Show, Segment five. Say it ain't so no,

(01:11:50):
it is fast. Hey, let's talk about bitcoin.

Speaker 2 (01:11:53):
You're gonna talk about bitcoin. Okay, let's see bitcoin.

Speaker 1 (01:11:56):
And only because we do have a number of people
that ask about it. Plus it's kind of interesting. We
talk about it a lot in the office. This week
they had Bitcoin twenty five in Vegas. Do you see
a time? Yeah? Square, the company Square is piloting real
time bitcoin payments at this conference. They're letting a tendee

(01:12:16):
scan and span the crypto for t shirts, hoodies, and
hats in their pop up store. We've talked before about
the currency really not being worth anything because you can't
buy anything with it, and I think they're trying to
kind of pioneer, if you will.

Speaker 2 (01:12:34):
So for those who don't, well, those who do know
a little bit about bitcoin, you know that if you
actually try to use the network to settle a transaction,
it's very slow, it's very bunky. It'd be about six
minutes on the fastest two oh wow, even maybe two
hours to settle a transaction. So the base layer of
bitcoin is pretty much not usable for regular transactions. And
the reason it being is each block that's added to

(01:12:56):
the blockchain only has a certain amount of space in it.
You can't have a whole bunch of little transactions like
the way Visa, Visa Card they handle all of our transactions.
I think Mastercard's the other one, right, they have their
own private ledger and they're making sure that you have
the money in your account to spend it and the
merchant is getting that money and no one's messing it up, right,
that's their job. That's why Visa's a company was a

(01:13:18):
Mastercard's company. What bitcoin essentially is is a public Visa
or a public master Card making sure that everyone's playing
by the rules, and the network itself that's confirming it
is all the different things.

Speaker 1 (01:13:29):
Right.

Speaker 2 (01:13:30):
The problem with this is it has only a certain
amount of storage that can go into each block, so
you can't get all these transactions into them. So they
had to create something called the Lightning network. And people
are like, who runs bitcoin? No one runs bitcoin, but
there are a group of developers that constantly improve it
and to improve it. There's something called voting that is
done by nodes, and anyone can have nodes around the world.

(01:13:53):
There's hundreds of thousands of them, but majority of them
have to agree to increase the security of the network
to make this Lightning network. There's been a lot of
updates and protocol changes to the Bitcoin network since it's iterations,
and people would say, oh, it's a company, No it's not.
It's a private group of developers that then when they
put a basically a law saying I'm proposing this bill,

(01:14:16):
everyone has to vote and agree on it majority to
actually have it incorporated into the next blockchain and update
the network. This Lightning Network was one of those updates
that was made five years ago, about five to six
years ago, and it allowed transactions to settle instantly, instantaneously,
the same way visa card is and I've used it myself.
You can you connect your Bitcoin wallet to it and

(01:14:38):
you are essentially opening a channel with someone and you're
able to settle instantly. You can buy hats and the
person will get it one second later.

Speaker 1 (01:14:46):
Yeah, I did mention the Lightning network, and yes, does
anyone own the Lightning network.

Speaker 2 (01:14:51):
No, it's think of it as layer two of the
bitcoin network. So you can kind of think of how
cash is layer one of the current dollar system, but
checks would be layer two because we can then have
commerce more quickly. But we know that the dollars will
get settled by whoever needs to push them around, whatever
bank needs to deliver it to the other bank. But

(01:15:13):
we can do our transaction without having to hold over
the large sum of cash. So it's essentially just a
layer above it that allows commerce to happen more efficiently
without friction.

Speaker 1 (01:15:22):
It's just an additional usage. On Wednesday, the Trump administration
relaxed to barriers and four one K plans to buy crypto.
They allowed buying of crypto and related digital assets like
MFTs and meme coins. Labor Department rescinded guidelines put in
place by Biden in twenty twenty two that aim to

(01:15:45):
safeguard four one K investors from themselves.

Speaker 2 (01:15:49):
I guess, yeah, that's kind of funny. Yeah, there's a
big thing with stable coins, and people don't know stable coins.
It's just the digital dollar essentially. It's most people don't
know that people around the world can't get access to dollars.
It's actually most people want dollars, they can't get them
because there's all they're very good at holding their value
compared to all their currencies in the world. People think

(01:16:11):
that the dollar is terrible holding its value, but compare
that to the Argentinian pay so oh yeah, well, you
know what I mean, there's a lot of other currencies
that aren't so good. So they want it, but they
don't have access to it. They don't have bank accounts,
they don't have the ability to invest in the stock market.
So being able to buy a stable coin and have
access to the dollar. These stable coins are backed by
US treasuries, and it's actually the third largest cryptocurrency in

(01:16:34):
the world right now. Is a stable coin?

Speaker 1 (01:16:36):
Is it stable?

Speaker 2 (01:16:39):
You're gonna ask me that on the air.

Speaker 1 (01:16:42):
No, I just get it.

Speaker 2 (01:16:43):
It's supposed to be. It's about ninety eight percent of
what I heard, backed by US Treasury, So it's about is,
but it's not completely.

Speaker 1 (01:16:51):
Well, I'm curious as to why a person would buy
a stable coin.

Speaker 2 (01:16:55):
Again, for the purpose of you're not in America. You
don't have access to dollars the same way Americans do. Right,
we take it for granted because we're just in the
best country for financial access. Even in Europe, there's places
where you're you're not just easily able to get hold
of dollars, and now you're these electronic railways to get
onto bitcoin, to stable coins. You can you can pay

(01:17:16):
things with stable coins. I mean just a dollar.

Speaker 1 (01:17:19):
I think. I go back and a bitcoin came came
out of ten dollars a coin, and it's got to
one hundred and twelve thousand dollars a coin.

Speaker 2 (01:17:27):
No, it actually came out as a penny. A penny, yeah,
just people didn't start tracking.

Speaker 1 (01:17:31):
Until I got to the time I thought I was
ten bucks.

Speaker 2 (01:17:33):
One first, no, the first, the first a million bitcoin.
We're mined by Satoshi Knakamoto. That's the Satoshi guy you
hear about, okay, And he mined it with basically a computer.
He started the system with a group of other developers
that helped create it, but he was the head of
that system. And the first one came out and like
it's twenty twenty twelve, so that twenty eleven.

Speaker 1 (01:17:55):
But yeah, and bitcoins, bitcoins, like any other assets forth,
what somebody's willing to pay for it, right, whether it
be art, whether it be collectible cars, whether it be
the US dollar.

Speaker 2 (01:18:03):
Yeah, I think the only thing that you could say
is that you do have to spend computing power and energy,
which costs money to acquire those things. So there is
somewhat of an intrinsic value, just the same way as
it's intrinsic value to get gold out of the ground.
But the value of gold, too is in itself is
in the eye of its beholder. I mean, if I
don't care about gold, it's not valuable to me.

Speaker 1 (01:18:24):
Fascinatings. If you did a chat GPT piece on bitcoin,
I'd love to have you give us a synopsis of
that next week on the show. I think it's really
it uses some analogies that might help the listeners understand,
and we doesn't go by somebody doesn't ask me about bitcoin,
what is it? How does it work? What how do

(01:18:44):
I get into it? What? You know? It's a lot
of water cooler talk about bitcoin.

Speaker 2 (01:18:50):
One of the things that new product we've been talking
about a lot is the structured ETFs. Because these structured
ETFs they mimic those annuities, those fixed index annuities that
you see that people love when the market gets really
bad because It gives you market participation up to a cap,
say nine percent, but it doesn't give you any downside participation,

(01:19:10):
which means you have one hundred percent protection. If it
ends up going twenty percent, you get zero. If it
goes twenty percent high, you only get nine, and anything
between that range you'll get that percentage return. People love that.
The problem with annuities is you get locked into the
surrender period sure, and then if you want to get out,
you have to pay the surrender penalty, and it's just
not very liquid. Whereas these structured ETFs you can accomplish
the same idea, but you'll be an ETF on a

(01:19:33):
public exchange, which means you can get out the next
day if you want to. You have that liquidity ability
to move back into the markets if you wanted more risk, right,
because these products are just designed to mitigate risk, and
whenever you do that, you're giving up some return. So
the best place to grow your money isn't this product,
but it's for the person that can't handle those ups
and downs.

Speaker 1 (01:19:53):
Yeah, we've said before that the best way to grow
your money historically is in the stock market, but the
price of admission is volatility and I'm sorry. Not everyone
likes the volatility. No, one likes the volatility, but only
the higher the volatility or rate the volatility.

Speaker 2 (01:20:09):
Only the high volatility, the higher the return.

Speaker 1 (01:20:11):
Absolutely no, that's absolutely the truth. The highest returns are
in the small cap stocks which have the highest degree
of volatility. You do not have to accept the highest
degree of volatility, however, to get the to get a
good return.

Speaker 2 (01:20:25):
No, and that and deciding what return you want, good, great, phenomenal,
just beating inflation. Those are all different portfolio compositions. Those
are all different risk tolerances. And that's why it's so
important to not only have the financial plan, the goals
and objectives of it, but also understanding the risk that

(01:20:45):
you are as an investor.

Speaker 1 (01:20:47):
Dylan, We've talked about this before, but we get new
listeners every week. Tell me if someone wants to come
in for a free financial plan, walk me through it.

Speaker 3 (01:20:56):
So, I mean, what you do is give us a call,
we set up the meeting. We'll send you an email
with some information to gather what your assets are, any
life insurance and any expenses, all your expenses during the
month or annually, whatever it takes to live. And that's
usually the hardest thing for people to come up with,
but that's what you got to gather, get ready to go,
and then we start the plan from scratch in our

(01:21:17):
first meeting, and that entails any we want to build
your ideal retirement. What do you think what is your
vision for retirement. Do you want to retire at sixty
do you want to retire fifty five sixty five? How
much do you want to spend in retirement? How much
do you want to travel? Do you want to buy
a new car, do you want to home improvement, anything
like that. Any goals you have, we build into your

(01:21:38):
plan and then from there, if it is based on
one to ninety nine percent, ninety nine percent meaning that
out of every there's one thousand trials that would go through.

Speaker 4 (01:21:48):
And every time your money.

Speaker 3 (01:21:50):
Lasted, it outlasted you, we usually leave it about you
lived about ninety two, so then it means that your
money didn't run out. If it doesn't, so say you
get a forty eight percent, then we have to move
with what's going on. We have to probably spend less,
maybe take a little less travel, maybe not do the
home improvement, different things like that. But we go through

(01:22:10):
that all in the first meeting, and then we will
send you the risk talance questionnaire because we want to
nail down what your actual risk tolerance is. From there,
we build the proposal and we will go over that
in the second meeting with our suggestions how we would
manage the money, what we suggest to do with your
broth conversions, retirement planning, when to take social security. We
have a social Security optimizing tools, so we go through

(01:22:33):
all of that and what our suggestions are, and then
from there we'll give you We just let you take that,
go over it again. We call back in a couple
of weeks and we just see if you got any questions,
and then we either build a relationship or the financial plan.
The risk tolerance and that proposal is all yours. We
don't hold it hostage.

Speaker 1 (01:22:49):
And what's the cost for all of this.

Speaker 4 (01:22:51):
It's all free.

Speaker 3 (01:22:52):
What Yeah, like we were talking about in the beginning
of the show, we do it for education purposes.

Speaker 4 (01:22:58):
We just want to help people on a client that's
the cherry.

Speaker 2 (01:23:01):
On top, and it's really what we talked about at
the beginning of the show. It's because they don't get taught,
you know. That's why Sebastian was down there go by
me and Dylan. We're down there last month, as well
as doing the fire Health and Wellness first Responders event
and TV shows, radio shows. It's all about education. Yeah,
golf tournament, you know, getting your name out there and

(01:23:21):
helping the people. That's really what our first purpose is.
And uh, it's also a pretty cool job.

Speaker 1 (01:23:28):
Yeah, it really is educational. We really do care about
the education of clients. And I've said to clients before,
the more you know, the better it is for us.

Speaker 2 (01:23:38):
Yeah, you know, and sometimes the education the client doesn't
always want to know either. Sometimes they're just absolutely here
you go. That's totally fine as well, reverse Santa Claus.
It's not school. We don't we don't have to teach
it if you don't want to, and there's not.

Speaker 1 (01:23:52):
Going to be a there's not gonna be a quiz,
there's not going to be a test. If you want
to drop off your bag of decisions on our desk
and and walk out, that's fine. We can do that.
And so anyway, we'll be back with the final segment
of the Money Matter Show. We thank you again for
joining us on this Sunday morning. Welcome back to the

(01:24:14):
final segment of the Money Matter Show. I'm Dave Sherwood.
I'm here with Todd Glick Jr. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg.
Dean is out of the office. I thought Sebastian was
going to stop by, but he stopped buying and said hi,
and they went off to get his.

Speaker 2 (01:24:25):
New hybrid, going to hit that new car.

Speaker 1 (01:24:28):
He crashed his car and unfortunately he's okay, but he hurt.
He des tried his star. No one was hurt, of course.
Then I backed into a wall, So you know, stuff happens.

Speaker 2 (01:24:40):
Right, Stuff happens.

Speaker 1 (01:24:41):
That's why I got insurance.

Speaker 2 (01:24:43):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (01:24:44):
The uh one of the one of the areas that
really has been decimated is health and beauty really has
had a rough goal that primarily because they placed a
lot of their chips in China and when the Chinese
economy melted down during COVID and then was so slow
to come back. The Chinese market is a big market

(01:25:06):
for cosmetics, and it just has not been I mean,
Old Stee, Lotter, Elf Beauty, Alta Beauty, all these Elf
Beauty already down twenty eight percent this year. Stock dropped
twelve percent in the aftermarket on Wednesday, only to move
twenty four percent higher when the market opened on Thursday

(01:25:27):
on news they will acquire Haley Bieber's beauty brand named
Road in a deal worth one billion dollars. Now do
you know who Haley Baber is? That name's not familiar today, buddy.
That's Justin's wife, right, And Justin's net worth is three
hundred million, and she just became the richest person in

(01:25:48):
the house. Yep. And this is a trend and the
beauty companies are now figuring out that what you need
is not necessarily the best products. You need a very
very popular spokesperson.

Speaker 2 (01:26:06):
Think about Kylie Jenner. You know Kylie Jenner is Yes,
she sold hers oh very similar, fabulous. But it's the
question is how much do they get.

Speaker 3 (01:26:15):
Do you think we had eight hundred million in cash
and then I don't know what the other two.

Speaker 1 (01:26:18):
Eight hundred million, another two hundred million based on the
performance of the company. Plus I'm sure she's gonna she
probably signed an agreement to be their spokesperson for a
number of years. But if you're Justin Bieber's wife and
all of the girls are thinking you're all that, and
you're wearing Road r Hode like Rhode Island, if you're

(01:26:40):
wearing Road cosmetics, Well, then I want to wear Road cosmetics. Yeah,
that space is somebody in the office was asking about
the Utah or Sebastie was asking, and and whoever was
Sebastian was, Oh, yeah, all the all the young girls
are wearing Road and.

Speaker 4 (01:26:55):
So oh yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:26:57):
ALTA Beauty rally sixteen percent. Also, after the firm raised
its Danuel Prophet forecast, they crushed their quarterly reports. They said,
lower inventory losses and new launches. Get this, especially celebrity
owned brands, so watch for that and cosmetics as a
as a coming trend.

Speaker 2 (01:27:16):
It's a tough thing for the cosmetic business to get
into because there's going to be a new celebrity in
six months, the new celebrities all along, and the billion
dollars isn't going to get paid back in six months.

Speaker 1 (01:27:27):
The I can't even think I'm drawing a blank here.
The true my age my wife. My wife uses Crush Clone,
which was the brand brand of the blonde singer who
is very cute and about twenty years ago was number

(01:27:48):
one and justin Timberlake's girlfriend. I can't believe came up
with that. I'll come up with as soon as the
show's over. But no, no, what Bond not a Briniana
she was twenty years ago, she was a brilliance. I
don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:28:06):
Anyway, Britney Spears.

Speaker 1 (01:28:07):
There you go as so Britney Spears came up with
crushed cosmetics, right, and so my wife still wors crushed
uh on twenty years later, probably forty years later. I
don't know how long how long it has been out,
twenty years whatever, you guys, pick a number. But my
point is that it doesn't necessarily go away just because

(01:28:28):
the celebrity goes away.

Speaker 2 (01:28:31):
We'll Americans have a pretty good history of like picking
up different fads. I we have bell Bottoms. At one
point we're going back, everyone.

Speaker 3 (01:28:41):
Said, I mean that shows forever twenty one. That's why
that's gone out of business twice.

Speaker 1 (01:28:46):
Bell Bottom girl, right, come on, bell Bottom the hottest
thing in country music right now.

Speaker 4 (01:28:52):
Man.

Speaker 3 (01:28:53):
Netflix is just having a crazy good year. They're thirty
five percent for the year. They're having their like Awards show,
it seems comeing up soon.

Speaker 4 (01:29:02):
They just build their own.

Speaker 2 (01:29:04):
What's the is it the oscars that do shows? What
the Oscars is? The actors? Though the current awards show,
like the famous award show.

Speaker 4 (01:29:14):
The Oscars is movies.

Speaker 2 (01:29:15):
It's movies. Yeah, okay, So then like I feel like
Netflix is gonna like take over Oscars. I mean they well,
years from now, it's gonna be more popular. The Oscars
is the Netflix Awards.

Speaker 1 (01:29:24):
Yeah, I did make it.

Speaker 4 (01:29:25):
Probably the Oscars for movies still, because the.

Speaker 1 (01:29:27):
Oscars have been such a they had, they don't have
much entertainment during the awards. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:29:33):
Now came out that the voters for the Oscar for
the movies on that board, some of them don't even
watch all the movies. They just turn it on and
then go do something else. It shows and then they
because already had an idea of who they wanted to
vote for, so they don't watch all the movies that
are like.

Speaker 4 (01:29:46):
Isn't that your one job?

Speaker 2 (01:29:47):
It's very political?

Speaker 4 (01:29:48):
Yeah, isn't that your one job to watch all the movies?

Speaker 1 (01:29:50):
Very political? And generally most of the movies that win
or not movies that have been very popular, right, I mean,
you're not gonna have typically find an Oscar winning movie
be in the top ten that year of movies that
were viewed. So how relevant is it anymore? I don't know.

Speaker 2 (01:30:07):
And the Emmys is for the actors means for actors,
I means just TV Okay, I'm just Screen Actor Guilds
Awards they have that.

Speaker 3 (01:30:15):
The SAG Awards, yep, I mean actors win in movies
like the Oscars. They won a Best Actor.

Speaker 2 (01:30:20):
Okaying a wild rides.

Speaker 1 (01:30:24):
How about Abercrombie and Fish. What a wild ride that
one's been on two year period beginning in the summer
of twenty two, the stock increased tenfold before dropping sixty percent.
On Wednesday, the shares were twenty five percent higher after
they reported revenue and that income above analyst expectations and
issued up beat guidance, but their competitor Gap plunged twenty

(01:30:47):
percent after four cast sales to be flat for the
current quarter. American Eagle also slumped after they reported the
disappointing quarter. So I guess, I guess if you're not
going to Abercrombie, you're not You're now going where the
hot people go.

Speaker 2 (01:31:02):
Huh Yeah, I don't know that whole space is so
hard to know space just talk with cosmetics and clothes
and shoes.

Speaker 1 (01:31:09):
And talk about difficult to manage, you know.

Speaker 2 (01:31:12):
I feel like that's why TJ Max does so well,
because they don't have to know what's the fab. They
just buy the latest wholesale you know, bag of clothes
that they need to from the discount retail and then
they just sell it off for a great profit. You know.

Speaker 1 (01:31:25):
Dollar Store and Dollar Tree have been struggling mightily. And
I noticed on watching CNN at the gym on Thursday,
because I was forced to. It's right in front of
my treadmill that the pastor who headed up the Target boycott.
And I'm frankly not one hundred percent sure why a
pastor is involved in boycotts but is now moving the

(01:31:48):
boycott to dollar stores. Really, they don't have enough problems
because of their DEI involvement. And he's taking credit for
all of Target's decline in price stock price. That that
was the that was the lead in to his announcing

(01:32:09):
that they were going to move the go to the
dollar stores. Next is look what we've done to destroy Target?
Oh really, if you work hard enough, maybe you'll destroy
thousands of jobs and put the company.

Speaker 3 (01:32:21):
On the same way people boycotted bud Light or Anheuser Busch.

Speaker 1 (01:32:25):
Yep, they're just.

Speaker 4 (01:32:26):
Boycotting and company they hate.

Speaker 3 (01:32:28):
But I don't know how long that's gonna last target
still very popular.

Speaker 1 (01:32:32):
Yeah, I don't know, and these these kinds of things
tend to pass.

Speaker 4 (01:32:37):
Yeah, it's very short minded.

Speaker 1 (01:32:39):
Talk about tourism. I sell a report on the tariff tantrums,
immigration issues and the strong dollar have the US police
to lose eight point five billion in foreign visitor spending
Todd according to Oxford Economics, that.

Speaker 2 (01:32:54):
Makes sense that one I would have debated.

Speaker 1 (01:32:57):
It does make sense.

Speaker 2 (01:32:57):
But I do feel like we're American they're traveling just
as much air.

Speaker 1 (01:33:01):
Because they are traveling absolutely, the World Traveling Trust Console
said that number is closer to twelve point five billion.
They do represent a five to seven percent drop over
last year. The obvious losers airlines and hotels, right, just
something like that.

Speaker 2 (01:33:18):
Yeah, Well, like I was saying, though we're doing we're
buying plenty of international plane tickets. I mean they said,
TSA activities at an all time high. So people are
going through the airports on the and domestically here.

Speaker 1 (01:33:32):
No, I get it. I get a lot of Americans
traveling abroad. What they're suggesting is that the travel foreign
travel to the US is going to be down five.

Speaker 2 (01:33:39):
What's bigger impact I think than the five percent for
the airliners and the cruise liners. Is the low oil
right Eventually, if we can keep it low sixties even
into the fifties, they seem to be able to be
pretty profitable in that range.

Speaker 1 (01:33:54):
Yeah, yeah, it is so. As far as market looking forward, June, July,
August tend does tend to be a pretty good period
for stocks historically, the summertime. July historically the best month
of the year for the market. We are going to
have not much in the way of news in June

(01:34:17):
other than the obvious terraff dantrums going on almost every day.
If there's any kind of fed news. Uh no, earnings reports, No,
let me rephrase that, earnings reports. We'll start to wind down.
There'll be a trickle of them every day. Earning season
kind of never ends. It gets going hot and heavy
early in the quarter, and then it kind of drizzled out.

(01:34:39):
And right now we're two months into the second quarter
and earnings most earnings reports are out. We'll start to
we'll see some next week and on into the following weeks.
But then in July we start again with the with
the bank reports. I would expect the market to continue
to have some trumptomism about it, thinking that ultimately, despite

(01:35:04):
the ups and downs and the noise, that we're ultimately
going to come out of this thing in a pretty
good place, certainly in a better place than we were
when we started the year. So I'm optimistic about that
because the economy continues to remain strong. I think the
key things to look at, Todd Oil, You're going to
watch that interest rates. Watch interest rates. The bond markets

(01:35:27):
three times the size of the stock market, and if
there's going to be any issue whatsoever, you're going to
see it in the bond market first. So watch that.
Don't react too much to the tariff tantrums from day
to day because they come and go, but try to
try to ignore that. If you can't, you can't stand
to turn the TV off. So we all want to

(01:35:48):
be happy, and of course we all want to be healthy.
If we're not healthy, we're not happy. But at the
end of the day at Greenberg Financial, what we're really
trying to be is probable. See you next week.

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