Tariffs, Earnings, and Smart Financial Planning

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
You know what, it's fun time. Can you believe what's
going on? I'm excited. I think you're excited. I love
seeing everything. I love watching how fast we are making changes.
It's what we needed and it's going to help. But
I am going to give you warning right now. It
could hurt us in the markets over the next couple

(00:22):
of months, because you know President Trump, it's going to
say what he wants to say. Tarifs are going to
be part of his deal, and the other side's going
to keep knocking him down over and over and over
and over again. But at the end of the day,
once we get through this, and we do and if
we do have that moved down, it will be a
buying opportunity. So, like I've been saying for the last

(00:43):
few months, volatility is here and mitigating risk is important.
You don't have to be aggressive here. We're not at
the point I say this is a great time to buy.
Too many people still want to buy. Too many people
are too complacent, and I think the markets are still vulnerable.
But the same time, there's money on the sidelines that
want to buy. We saw it on Monday again. Market's

(01:06):
down hard. We're worried about terrorists, we're worried about China,
We're worried about all these things. And the next thing
you know, the markets are back up and it looks
like we can break out a little bit again. Maybe
maybe not, we'll see, but either way, I would be
careful when we start making new hins and it looks
like we can probably go to sixty two hundred possibly,

(01:28):
and if not, I think we can come down to
maybe fifty seven fifty eight hundred on the s and
P five hundred. Those are the two areas I like
to be more aggressive at the bottom and obviously mitigate
risk as we're getting over here closer to that sixty
one hundred sixty two hundred level on the top. But
if we don't break out, expect it to move down.
If we do break out and keep going, you can

(01:49):
expect us to get past a sixty two hundred level
a little bit before we start seeing some resistance. You've
been seeing the whole thing and the technology business right
now too. You're seeing, you know, they come out with
the deep seek and the next thing you know, you
see all these companies get hurt. Now you start seeing
them be built up. But the key to everything is

(02:12):
they're all putting in more money for AI. They didn't
cut back on AI. If they didn't cut back on AI,
they didn't cut back on buying chips from the video.
And if that's the case, there's something else going on,
then what the media tells us there's something else going
on on a two level AI business. Yeah, there'll be
some cheaper way to do AI for the masses, but

(02:34):
for what some of these companies want to accomplish, they
need to be at a much much higher level. The
markets are going to stay volatile, I promise you that,
and volatility means to the upside and the downside. There
are going to be opportunities all along the way. I

(02:57):
will I will let you know when I feel comfortable
enough to say, John been with both feet. These markets
are going to do well over the next few years.
But for us to do well over the next few years,
I do think we have to scare people out of them.
We do have to go ahead and shake the trees
a little bit. Right now, evaluations are still high, and
any time they miss just a little bit, like you

(03:18):
saw Google this week miss Boom down a drop fifteen
to twenty points. Microsoft has fallen about thirty points. I
don't know if Google is a good opportunity right now.
I do think that Microsoft is starting to look better
and better. But in the areas where you got it,
you want to kind of stay. I mean, you know, CrowdStrike,
you know, everything to do with computers and and and

(03:42):
and and keeping them safe. I think is a good
opportunity on pullbacks, I do. I think it's one of
the things that is an area we're going to have
to keep looking at. Okay, and and and keep being
part of. We're not you know, they're going to be
building data centers, they're going to need cooling, they're going
to need electricity, and those are areas that you know,

(04:04):
they got hot, they went up. They you know, a
little one little story comes out and everybody sells them
off and they come down. You know, maybe they didn't
hit the bottom. Maybe it's justn't one wave up and
then coming down. But this is a is going to
be an area I believe for the next three, five,
ten years that you're gonna want to be part of.
You just have to pick the right times and the

(04:25):
right ability to be able to dollar cost savage in
h you know, financials lately they've been a little bit,
a little bit difficult to continue with. They've been looking
good and then they get hurt. You know, interest rates
are not coming down right away. I'm telling you that
they're not coming down right away.

Speaker 2 (04:44):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (04:44):
I just hope that Defense doesn't start talking about raising
rates to offset their lowing rates before. I hope to
just stay pat. Let's see what happens over the next three, four, five,
six months. You know, there are going to be maybe
some things that are going to cost more, others are
not going to cost more. Let me give you a
little bit of an education, uh, from the economic side

(05:06):
of the other side of tarist's I know you hear
everyone says tarists are going to cost more money for people. Okay,
but remember corporations always find a way to to to
be able to stay in the game and make money.
Right that's the You know, you can talk about billionaires
and corporations and all this stuff, but corporations make money.

(05:26):
They hire people. Corporations make a lot of money. They
put money into it, they technology, they do the things
that make America keep growing. But for some reason, if
you know, the the middle class which needs corporations listen
to their to the left tell you that they don't
want this. You need labor unions, you need this, you

(05:48):
need that, and all that does is cost money. Regulation
costs money. We need safe regulations, we need accountability, but
we don't need to put layer over layer, a layer
over layer in order to go ahead and just say, Okay,
now we're protected, because you're not protected. Just because it's regulations.
It doesn't mean you're protected. There's regulations in my business,

(06:12):
in our business that we do here up the kazoo
that didn't stop burning made off from ripping off some
of the most wealthiest people in the in the in
the world. Okay, if people want to do things, they're
gonna do it. Make regulations so it's there to protect,
but easy to do, not just keep layering it, layering

(06:33):
it and layering it, because at the end of the day,
it just costs people more. And at the end that
costs individuals more. So if you do Terris and you know,
I would still believe the bargaining tools, but there's gonna
be some that's gonna stick and they're gonna go back
in both ways. But it will be a conversation that
will be had if you believe, if you really honestly
believe that people don't need America to buy their goods,

(06:56):
and that that that, and that we need to buy
their goods with a big as important you know that.
But we need to be able to be on the
safe time we will bring business back. You know, I
still cannot believe since the pandemic we haven't flooded the
country with our healthcare essentials manufacturing here in the United States.

(07:17):
I just can't believe it. After what we went through.
How many times do we have to think that we
have to keep buying this stuff from China? Is it
the fact that we have to keep the prices down
so much otherwise everyone's gonna complain. Well, then let's figure
something else out. We've talked about it before. Maybe this
is the start. Maybe this is the start of being
able to make a real headway with Mexico. Something happens

(07:42):
where we can get rid of the cartels, that we
can actually have real good relationship with Mexico, because even
if we increase their wages down there, it's going to
be cheaper than what we're paying here. And we can
bring stuff to America and work it together. Make Mexico
a comtry that gets rich and America that continues to

(08:03):
build with their economy. There's no reason. I don't see
why that can't be hand in hand, all right, But
it's going to be steps. And the steps that are
being taken right now are upsetting the other side. And
it is just making me laugh. I I you know,
I flip around sometimes and listen to what's going on,
and you know, and I listened to Fox, I listened

(08:23):
to you know, CNN, and and listen to different commentators
on the biggest time. But this is the biggest thing that
I saw between the two. It was when they were
they were down on the border. Hegseeth and Holman were
down on the border. They were being interviewed and they
were talking about, you know, changing the mindset, changing the

(08:44):
way they backed the border patrol, changing the way they
backed the military, and how we're going to be strong
and we're and there's there's no tolerance, and they and
that the government will have their black and President Trump
will have their back, and they were talking about how
they were asking them, well, we're hearing that that you know,
the cartels have drones that they were going to bring
over and the weaponize them and start shooting at the

(09:06):
border patrol and and and the bottom line is there
was a real simple answer by the Secretary of Defense.
He basically said, the rules of engagement have changed. You
shoot on us, we shoot back. And if you think
that our military is not stronger, better and ready to

(09:26):
go against the cartels, then you have another thing coming
all right now. A lot of people are like, oh,
you're provoking the cartels. You're doing this. You do not, No,
you're not. You think the cartel's care one bit. You
think gang members care one bit. They love to put
us the fear in God in everybody. They go ahead
and kill people, hurt people, they do things and to

(09:51):
make people scared of them so they can get what
they want. Well, the only way he goes back is
if you talk tough, but you finished job. And I
don't see one way one how one bullet, one bomb.
Want anything coming from the cartels that it won't be
one of the last things that they think they can do.

(10:13):
And they know it. But they want to have tough talk,
no different than Canada wanted to have tough talk. I
love Canadians, I love going up there. Think about how
many people Canada has versus how many people do us have.
We need good relations, We don't need them. The ex
Prime minister up there telling them that we should be
so happy that we're that the Canada's are partners. Of

(10:35):
course we're happy, okay, but they need to be more
happy that we are. We could survive, you know what.
The one thing that people don't realize is if you
scrape out everything, cake out all the politics, America can
survive on his own a lot more than others. But
I don't want us to survive just on our own.
I want us to be strong so we can help
and work with others just to be fair. We just

(10:58):
want it all fair. So going back to the story,
I'm listening to the border and the toughness and how
people are getting strong. I feel the culture, I feel
the mindset changing. And I switch over to CNN, and
you know what they're talking about. They're talking about the
terriffs that China, the ten percent tariffs on China, and
when they go ahead and they hit back on ours,

(11:20):
the cost of shoes, The cost of shoes is going
to go up. And I scratched my head and I said,
you think that's more important than what's going on in
the border. The cost of shoes. And believe me, I
know women love shoes. We all need the basic shoes.
But at the end of the day, most of us
have very many pair of shoes compared to most people

(11:42):
in the world. We can survive a little bit of
time of not worrying about the price going higher in
shoes because we have shoes. And then you know what's
gonna happen. Manufacturers and the United Manufacturer People Association even
said they don't just use China. They have shoes being

(12:02):
manufactured all around the world. Now, China might make great shoes,
it might might get at a great price. There's other
places that make it too, And that's what would shift.
If you think that a good company, good corporation is
sitting there saying, oh, we're just gonna wait and we're
gonna get ourselves heads bashed in and we won't have
a decision and to move forward, you're nuts. They know

(12:24):
there's other places they can manufacture. They know they can
even tell start looking to see what can be manufactured here.
And you know, just like we did with the chip
business and everything else. Once in this tax bill that
he's gonna do for corporations, it is a big deal.
If you move down to fifteen percent. If you move
down to fifteen percent, that's a big margin that you

(12:45):
can drop on your taxes that can help you manufacture
in the USA. I mean, you gotta admit when you
see something that says made in the USA, because it's
so rare, it kind of makes you feel good. We
have to make things again. And you know, I know

(13:06):
we got rid of the dirty smokestacks and and a
lot of that created a lot of problems and that industry.
But you know what the industry now is clean. And
you know, we talk about all these clean This is
what makes me laugh. We talk about climate and cleanliness
and air. But yet we demand getting cheap prices by

(13:27):
going to all these emerging countries around the world, India, China, Vietnam,
right that they have no control over the pollution they
put in the air, no regulations, in order to go
ahead and use child labor so we can get better prices.

(13:48):
But yet to the same people here that want to
stand up against climate control, climate change, uh to talk
about child labor. We want I A wages for everybody.
We need to raise minimum wage. But yet it's okay
that other countries around the world that you want your
stuff from. It's charging is doing this. It's horrendous. It

(14:12):
is so hypocritical the way we want our country to run.
But yet we still want other things. So you know what,
maybe that's what's gonna happen. Maybe these corporations and other
players are gonna find out how we can manufacture things
in North America. And I'm not gonna just say to the US,
but we have Mexico and stuff the reason, you know,
and do it the right way. It helps Mexico obviously

(14:35):
become a lot more efficient and rich. We work with Canada,
who has a lot of minerals and rights that we
need from there too. We make North America a great, moving,
growing economy together. Europe's not gonna happen this way. I
can promise you that Europe is gonna have a lot
of problems. And Europe is going because they don't all

(14:57):
get along. And remember they were united. They're not like
a united country. They're all nations countries that come together
that try to work on the same deal of doing
a lot of stuff. But that's where you got that's
what happens, and that's not where we're at. So we're
going to be in good shape if we start getting
to act together. It so right now we are going

(15:21):
at light speed. Trump gets in everything he said he
was going to do, he's doing. And now the biggest
problem that I have is that the left is going
ahead and lambasting him for what he's doing. Because he's

(15:43):
doing exactly what he said he was going to do.
And for the majority of the millions of people that
voted for him, open above voting for the other side,
but that they have to open them mouth, they have
to make these demonstrations. To me, they look like little
babies that don't really know what's going on. And I
and and and I'm I'm at the point now when

(16:05):
I have discussions with people, because I enjoy having discussions
with people from the other side or not, I look
at them and I said, here's your problem. You don't
understand what it takes to do what we need to do.
You do not like change, You do not like people
coming in and making something successful. To make something successful,

(16:29):
you have to break it down and build it up.
I said, all you talk about is billionaires and doing
these things. What are they doing wrong? I said, what
are they doing wrong? Well, they don't have the constitutional
right to do this and do that. What are you
talking about? What are they doing wrong? They trying to
find out through the Doge Committee. In Elon Musk, where

(16:53):
are moneys going? We've all said for years, why do
we have so much waste? You know, the whole joke
is the guy that spends a thousand dollars for a hammer,
you know, when in the defense of the thing, and
they get paid all this money stuff that we can
get for twenty five dollars they're paying thousands of dollars for.
It's always been that type of exaggeration. But we all

(17:15):
know this, and we're also there's nothing we can do.
So now something is being done. And because they didn't
vote for him, they have a problem. And I look
at him and say, Elon Musk and Donald Trump went together,
campaigned together and said this is what they're going to do.

(17:35):
They were voted in to do this. Your problem is
you don't want them to be in so you're coming
up with all these things. But at the core of it,
I ask them, why do you have a problem with
us finding out if there's anything fraudulent where the money's
being sent. Should we be spending it on these things.

(17:56):
Should we where's this money go when we send it overseas?
Is it going to places we wanted to do? No
one's saying we're not going to give help to around
the world and around the people that need. We want
to get rid of the waste. And for some way,
they're convoluting the fact that if you do an audit,
if you look at what's going on, that's a bad thing.

(18:16):
And I look at him and I say, what are
you afraid of? What are you afraid of? Because here's
the thing I say, if you do not like what
they're doing, what is your plan? How are you going
to go ahead and check and balances on all the
money that's spent and wasted in the United States government?
When our deficit and our debt is thirty six trillion

(18:42):
and rising thirty six trillion and rising. What is your
plan to do? And which, by the way, I said,
you stop giving false information about Social Security and Medicare,
Medicaid being cut and not getting checks and doing this stuff.
When you've heard it out of everyone's mouth. We will

(19:06):
not touch that. So are you're going to try to
sabotage it? My biggest fear is somebody on the left
sabotaging it so checks don't go out, and they start
blaming everyone else for doing it. What I love to
about what's going on is they throw things out there
and they look to try to do it, and if
it's not working right away, they pull back and say, hey,
well wait, okay, it was taken wrong with us saying

(19:27):
no more federal spending. People then start thinking they're not
getting checks. That wasn't the idea going forward. Was the
idea no more federal spending. The money that's been out there,
you're going to get. But when we're not putting any
more money in it, they figured there's another way to
go do that. Okay, there's nothing wrong with that. Every
president has civilian advisors everyone. What they don't like is

(19:52):
that Elon Musk is actually doing something and being transparent
about doing it about doing it. But when they talk
about the billionaires just want to get all this information
and this stuff, I'm like, I scratch my head and go,
why would a billionaire who's already had more money than
God even have any purpose other than trying to show

(20:14):
Americans all the hypocrisy and all the things that are
wrong with America so we can be great again. And
I know I use that phrase and other people use it,
but really, seriously, why do we want I mean, just
even attorneys on both sides knew the DOJ we're politicizing

(20:34):
all these lawsuits against Trump. We knew what they were
trying to do because this is what they were afraid of.
They were afraid of being exposed. My other question to
them is how do politicians come in poor and always
leave with tens of millions or hundreds of millions of
dollars when they are no longer worth serving the people.
They do it because of this what goes on, and

(20:55):
that's what's going to be exposed, and that's what they're
afraid of. These billionaires who are volunteers, very hard volunteers,
which means they're making no money, so they're not in
for the money. You get crazy because you think he
wants to go to Mars. What is he gonna do?
What is he looking at? You think he wants to
stop payments. He wants to make it so there's more

(21:16):
money in the people of America's pockets, so they don't
have to be taxed so much. You've heard me say
this so much if we can give away and waste
billions and billions and hundreds of billions, even trillions of
dollars a year. We are taxing us too much money,
So why don't we find out where all the money's going.
Go ahead and cut our deficits so we can actually

(21:36):
live with it and not be afraid we're not gonna
have Social Security money that we're gonna have to fraid
of commenctic caoret And don't tell me that's not a fear,
because that's been going on for thirty years. We've been
talking about running out of money. And by the way,
that money isn't the government's money, but they take that money,
they've taken it for years. It's not the government's money.
It's your money and your employer's money that goes into

(21:59):
a fund for you for when you retire. The scam
is and when you die you don't even get that money.
You might not make it. And where's all that money go.
That's the scam. It doesn't go to your family. Now,
if you're married, it could go to your spouse or
if you have kids, that goes to that for a

(22:20):
certain amount of time. But if you're single and you die,
all that money that went in nowhere, doesn't go anywhere? Scam?
Where's all that money? Why did we allow them? Why
did we allow Congress to give themselves raises and borrow
money when we don't have it from the social Security
system with IOUs That is a joke in its own right.

(22:42):
Why have we never put their feet at and you
know what we might get answers? All these executive orders,
all these things he doing, even about JFK and the CIA.
Is it not going to be interesting? And Martin Luther King?
Is it not going to be interesting when they release that?
Why are we not allowed to see that? Why haven't
we been allowed to see it? What is the cover

(23:02):
up in all this stuff? You want transparency, you get it.
They can't handle it. At the end of the day,
I know this. We have a president and an administration
who has brought on people that want to make the
changes to show the American people how much hypocrisy, where
the money's going, where it's going so we can cut

(23:24):
taxes for everybody, not just the rich, everybody. We want
to make the economy better for everybody. We want to
do things that are great for everybody, make a military
great for everybody. That's what we want that's what they want,
that's what we voted for. When they talk on the
other side and yelling screen, I just want to know

(23:45):
you had the opportunity. You know, medicare As has fifty
billion dollars. You even set it yourself. Democrats at least
fifty billion dollars a year go towards fraud. You've never
done anything about it, and now you're complaining things are change.
Change takes big leadership. Big leadership will always be shut down.

(24:07):
But at the end of the day, I can't wait
to see where we are one, two, three, and four
years from now. I believe we're gonna look at this
and go, wow, this is history that we just saw.
We'll be right back and thank you for listening to
the Money Monty Show.

Speaker 3 (24:20):
Welcome back to the Money Matters Show. It's actually the
We appreciate Dean stopping by. Everybody enjoys his commentary. Not
only needs he smart, but he has more common sense
than most people. That's a good combination smart and common sense.
Welcome to the Super Bowl Sunday edition. This is actually
the saddest day of the year. Todd satst day of
the year. Why is the Satursday of the year because

(24:42):
it's the last day of football well for.

Speaker 2 (24:44):
Like, yeah, five months, and it's eight oh my godness.

Speaker 3 (24:48):
Like eight months. So it should be a national day
of morning and we should get Monday off.

Speaker 2 (24:51):
I I feel that.

Speaker 3 (24:53):
Let's lobby for that.

Speaker 2 (24:54):
I'm with you on that one.

Speaker 3 (24:57):
It was another crazy week. We started off last week
down six seven hundred points on.

Speaker 2 (25:03):
A mere image of almost the week before.

Speaker 3 (25:04):
The mere image, wasn't it? Yeah, it really was. The
Monday was just a down a week ago Monday. And
then this past Monday the Trump drops those twenty five
percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Speaker 2 (25:16):
Yeah. I mean, for all the movement we've had the
last two weeks, were really actually only down one percent.

Speaker 3 (25:21):
It's just amazing. And last week we start out down
six hundred down points and then it ended up the
week well actually down four hundred DOWLL points on Friday,
ended up the week down two hundred and fifty down points.
So I mean, what two tenths of a percent on
the S and P five hundred So really, uh, not
much if you'd have gone away for two weeks on
vacation and came back, go that much.

Speaker 2 (25:42):
Going on, right, But that's not what you would have
said if you look at the news headlines and all
the things coming in, and there was definitely a lot
of gyrations. Uh, Like you said, the first Monday that
we got the news that they were going to pause
the tariffs, let stocks kind of bounce back from the
initial Monday morning sell off that we saw, you know.
I mean, we did some sell off going into the
weekend on Friday, but it wasn't crazy, and I maybe

(26:04):
it was just because it was so at the end
of the market day on Friday, who knows, But Monday
they were really ready to sell. And I think it's
been quick.

Speaker 4 (26:12):
I think the qu'es were down two and a half
percent right before the market opened. And what do we
finished that day?

Speaker 3 (26:16):
It can't be nasdack. Yeah, absolutely, Yeah, very volatile.

Speaker 2 (26:22):
Once once Trump thedn't paused his tariffs, all the focus
turned to over one hundred companies out of the S
and P reporting this week.

Speaker 3 (26:30):
It was amazing, just a huge week for Ernie's reports
and they were for the most part, not all, but
for the most part pretty going good.

Speaker 2 (26:37):
And I think largely because we're looking at quarter four results.
Nothing from quarter four economic reports told us it was
a bad quarter, like everyone should have done pretty well.
Retail sales was strong in October, November, December. We know
people were making money pretty well in those months as well.
It didn't seem like any company should report bad for

(26:59):
quarter four. It was more about guidance. What were they
going to say for twenty twenty twenty five profits moving forward?
Because of the higher for longer interest rate picture.

Speaker 3 (27:07):
Hugely important, and we got some volatility off of that.
There were a number of companies that were reported disappointing guidance,
and we'll go into that a little bit as we get.

Speaker 2 (27:15):
And then on Friday, the last thing that kind of
really put the market move into where we saw it
now is the labor report that came in a little
higher than expectation on the average hourly earnings, which is
just a way for investors to see, Okay, who's are
they making more or less money this month? And it
kind of seems like they're making more, which is a
bad thing for inflation reasons going forward. Potentially the Fed

(27:39):
might pause again the next time they meet. They're starting
to be some talking that's tame.

Speaker 3 (27:42):
My Most of the concern right now is about inflation
from whatever source. Whether it be the tariffs or the
econy or whatever. There's a lot of talk and concern
about inflation, and yet we always say, if you're in doubt,
go with the bond market, because it's three times the
size of the stock market, and interest rates actually were low,
and so that tells you they're not that concerned about inflation,

(28:05):
and that might be something to pay close attention to.

Speaker 2 (28:09):
Yeah, well, and to be fair, I think they were
concerned with inflation when the market wasn't, and so it
always seems like they're kind of on the opposite side
a little more than the market. The stock market seems
to get euphoria very easily.

Speaker 3 (28:22):
It does, it does, and I think there's just a
no matter what the earnings reports are, no matter what
the news backdrop is, no matter what inflation numbers are,
consumer sentiment, whatever, the excitement about AI plus Trump two
point zero is just really like an under under what's
the word I'm trying to use under report, Like I said,

(28:42):
like support for the market. You could see the market
dropping five percent. There's hardly a year goes by it
doesn't drop ten percent at some point. So that's obviously
in the carbs. But he's hard to envision much more
than that. With the excitement about what a pro business
president can do, I think that's I think that's yeah.

Speaker 2 (29:05):
I mean I understand the pro business president. I think
you're gonna we've seen some already development out of small
caps getting some bid here. But I mean again, I
think we'll go back to what we saw with we're
talking about Tesla and what is Trump actually going to
do in these next like real two years. I mean
that's what we really got to worry about from an
investing standpoint. If we're talking about four years from now,

(29:26):
what's There's a lot of things that can happen in
four years.

Speaker 3 (29:29):
Yeah, I mean you really only have two years because
then you have the MIDI elections and we have both
we the Republicans have a thin margin in the House
and in the Senate, so that could disappear, just like
it did in his first term. First term he had
the House in the Senate.

Speaker 2 (29:43):
I think a lot of these investors too, are thinking
way more of what Trump can do than what he
actually has the power to do. And I think we've
seen that with Tesla.

Speaker 3 (29:51):
Kelso is a great, a great example. You know, that's
stock doubled after the election, on the belief that Trump's
gonna find some way to repay Elon for the support.
It has doubled since then has given back half of
that gain. Open Lower. On Friday, sales in China fell
eleven percent. And that's not because of decreased demand. That's
because of increased competition. There's so many different companies making

(30:13):
electrics in China. Friday, the Trump and get this Friday,
the Trump administration moved to halt a five billion dollar
initiative to build ev charging stations by instructing states not
to spend those funds that they're going to come looking
for them. Funds were previously allocated under the Biden administration.
Trump came in and said, don't spend those We're going

(30:34):
to be looking for that money back. He wants the
private companies to do that. And look what Tesla is
built out without the government. There's a charging charging network
that allows you to take your Tesla pretty much anywhere
in the country. We don't need the government spending five
billion dollars.

Speaker 4 (30:53):
Well, you let the government do it, so you'll end
up with those level one chargers that you said see
out in Cantata, with something called them yeah, yeah, the
power blink or whatever.

Speaker 3 (31:01):
Well, in all fairness, Long Katata is level three, but
it's but they're old school. It's an old school level three,
so it's they're slow. And yet with that said, my
wife works part time up up in Long Katata and
I take a sandwich every Saturday and when I leave
Long cantatam All, I always go around behind in that test.
Those Tesla's charging stations, it's probably a does no. They're

(31:22):
all filled up. And I tell you if you if
you have an electric car and you don't have a
home charging system, that's going to be a lot of
work because you're going to be sitting at a lock
in Tata for forty five minutes to.

Speaker 4 (31:35):
An hour speaking about evs.

Speaker 3 (31:38):
Can I can? I can? I got a segue to
so so essentially everything's going backwards for Tesla since the election,
So we're kind of scratching our heads as to what
it is he's going to do to repay musk. Toyota Motors,
on a related story, gained four percent on Wednesday after
the largest automaker announced plans to form a new company
in China to make electric vehicles as a catches up

(32:00):
to other automakers. You may remember that they originally focused
on hybrids. That's what the Toto family wanted. And in
April of last year they got a new CEO and
he said, oh no, we're going all electric. And so
the world's largest automaker is trying to catch up after
being behind the wall.

Speaker 4 (32:15):
You got a disclaimer for us, Yeah, I'll do the
quick disclaimer. The show is sponsored by the Greenberg Financial
Group and you can listen on seven to ninety KNSD
or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different investment products and strategies.
Every product and strategy have some type of an inherent risk,
and we strongly encourage our listeners to properly understand the
risk whether to determine whether to buy, sell, or hold.

(32:36):
Show has been on air for over thirty years. The
Greenbrig Financial Group is registered with the SEC and a
member of FINRA and SIPIK. Visit our website at Greenberg
Financial dot com for some more information. If you ever
have any questions you want answered on the show, you
could email at contact at Greenbrig Financial dot com or
even just call in five two zero five four four
four nine zero nine.

Speaker 3 (32:53):
And now, don't think we went over to the market.
You want to give a quick market summery there.

Speaker 4 (32:56):
Yeah, the Dow drops five tenths of a percentage, That
sm P five hundred dropped two tenths of a percentage,
Nasdaq Tech dropped five tenths of percentage. The Russell two
thousand small caps drop two tenths of a percentage, and
the RSP down point six percent.

Speaker 3 (33:13):
Yeah. The S and P five hundred very bollusile down
big on Monday, down beigy on Friday, up big on Wednesday.
After all the hoople out of the S and P
five hundred lost fourteen points last week. It's a six
thousand index. Okay, lost fourteen points. Oh yeah, Todd janin
right now, there you go.

Speaker 4 (33:28):
That's exactly I want to go back really quick to
the evs. I think Todd actually sold me on a
hybrid this week. On Thursday, we were headed up to
waste management and I kid you not, I think they.
I think Todd touched his steering wheel maybe three, four
five times the entire drive up to Phoenix. Why self
driving crazy.

Speaker 3 (33:48):
Require And by the way, Tesla has dropped their self
driving subscription from one hundred and ninety nine a month
to ninety nine a month. I think they're they're trying
to find the market. Where will what will people.

Speaker 1 (33:59):
Pay for this?

Speaker 4 (34:00):
Todd's doesn't mean you can't tell it type in a destination.
It won't and it'll take you somewhere. But the fact
that I could sit in on the freeway going to
Phoenix and probably touch my steering wheels five times, it's
pretty pretty cool.

Speaker 3 (34:12):
Good feature on my Tesla. I can push a button
and have it come to me from wherever it is.

Speaker 4 (34:16):
That is pretty cool, especially if.

Speaker 3 (34:18):
You're in a parking lot of a mall or something
camera where you parked, just say yeah, come here and
it comes. That's kind of that, doesn't neat. It's the future, right,
Do you use it?

Speaker 4 (34:28):
You utilize it?

Speaker 3 (34:29):
No, I've never used it, but it's nice. You know
it's there, you know, and in case I need it someday.
If Todd you'rs your self driving on the hybrid, what
kind of involvement does require on your part?

Speaker 1 (34:42):
None?

Speaker 2 (34:43):
No, I mean it will ask you to touch the
wheel after maybe five minutes or something.

Speaker 3 (34:48):
Yeah, just like periodically to say you're awake.

Speaker 2 (34:50):
Just to let you yeah, to say you're awake, type
of thing.

Speaker 3 (34:52):
So we're not really quite ready for full self driving.

Speaker 2 (34:55):
No, I don't think they have regularly, they haven't improved that. Yeah,
they have to approve that. That's a regular Congress would have.

Speaker 3 (35:01):
To allow companies to actually self driving.

Speaker 2 (35:05):
And that's what was the talk of what Trump could
possibly help Elon Musk with is getting that cross the
finish line of the autonomous vehicle truly being allowed to
be autonomous right now, there has to be human involvement.

Speaker 3 (35:16):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (35:16):
You have some sandbox areas like Phoenix where you have
Waimo and and and they have certain municipal policies, municipality
policies that allow them to get around and so like
the way Mo and some of the other crews up
in Phoenix and they have the self driving taxis, but
you can't you can't take it outside that region. Yeah right,

(35:37):
I mean it's only allowed to be your.

Speaker 3 (35:39):
Reach and where we will be there. We'll be back
right after this message. Thanks for joining us.

Speaker 2 (35:45):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Todd Glick. I'm here with David Sherwood and Sebastian Borsini.
Dylan Greenberg and Dean Greenberg are out of the office today.
So we're subbing in for them. And uh, it was
a fun week in the market. So it was very
volatile week, all based on Trump's first initial Trump tariff decisions,
and then he trumped his tariff decisions and said that

(36:08):
we're going to pause them for a month. I don't
the market seem to like that, but if they're still coming,
we have we have some problems with tariffs, and I
think we should talk about that because I was talking
with someone at the Waste Management and I thought it
was interesting. He brought up an interesting point about how
tariffs are actually paid the exporter. Imagine you have a
Canadian lumber and tariffs are put on a Canadian lumber.

(36:30):
The exporter is in selling that to the importer, and
that importer is the one that's selling it to the
American consumer. So it's the it's the importer that is
really chart paying the tariff, because the tariff is incentivizing
the importer to find another source of that input and
inherently trying to incentivize them to bring that cost of
input to manufacture here in that stame state. So you

(36:53):
don't get the tariff, and so it's not really the
exporter paying it. It's it's the import So there is
a direct in cree to the consumer from.

Speaker 3 (37:01):
It has no question scriffs have to mean higher prices.

Speaker 2 (37:04):
And so there is an inflictator and that's that's why
on the short term it's inherently it's going to be
higher prices, and long term it might be a better
fact that you have supply chains get rerouted and in
some you know, manufacturers may be considered to not have
external labor forces and bring them back into America. But
that doesn't it doesn't happen overnight. Yeah, and if it

(37:25):
does happen overnight, there's so much cost influence embedded into
that that it would just still get passed on to
the consumer on that that unit that you're trying to produce.

Speaker 3 (37:34):
So I think the market rebounded a little bit on
Monday and then Wednesday on the thinking that well, maybe
Trump is going to use these as a club. You know,
I'm just clubbing you over the head right now. I'll
do it again if you don't do this, this, and this,
and so maybe maybe he's using it as a as.

Speaker 2 (37:52):
A as a average negotiation.

Speaker 3 (37:54):
Just what it was. A Monday, the Mexican president sent
troops to the border like than hours of the tariff's
being announced. That's why they were rolled back. Now I
don't know what kind of good that's going to do,
how much military to be on the border, whether they
can control the border or not. But Trump's saying, hey,
control your borders, control your northern border, control your southern borders.

(38:16):
Your job, not our job, and so that that'll be
interesting to watch. But if he uses them as a
tool to get other countries to behave more rationally from
an economic point of view, that's a good thing.

Speaker 2 (38:30):
And also heard over the weekend from a couple of
people that Trump has made taxes on tips of legalized
and you're not gonna get taxed on your overtime. That
has not happened. He cannot sign an executive order for that.
That's not in his ability or in his powers. I
suppose he could, but then it would be challenged in court.
I don't even think. I mean, that's a legislative law,
and it's a law taxes. I mean, he doesn't have

(38:52):
the ability to change laws. He can attack, he can
execute laws. He can put him an order, and he's
an executive order. So you're saying that a good point,
But Yeah, it's an legislator from taxes legislative. That's a
latest legislative deal. It has to go through this has
to go to Congress, you know, and then it has
to go to the Senate, and then the President has
the right to veto it or sign it into law.
That's the look it up Schoolhouse rock. Right, That's that's

(39:15):
how we learned about it. So again, that has not
been he said he wants to do it, and there
are bills that have been introduced to the Congress floor,
but they're still there. They actually haven't been What do
you think about that? I'm uh, I don't think most
people pay tax on tips anyways. Yeah, I think that's
why he said, that's exactly what you both have.

Speaker 3 (39:34):
You both earned tips right in your life.

Speaker 2 (39:36):
I have, I have earned tips. I have When I
earned tips, they were on my on my paycheck.

Speaker 4 (39:41):
I was I was going to say the same thing.
Everything was done electronically because we worked at member courses,
so it's like charging of the member number, right, and
that's done electronically. Not some people give you cash and whatnot,
but ultimately the tips were always getting taxed from.

Speaker 2 (39:54):
If you work at a restaurant, normally you can get
under the table tips, but if you're at a country club,
everything's done at a very through your member cards.

Speaker 3 (40:00):
Yeah, and the tip you're saying, somebody might hand you
a twenty dollars.

Speaker 2 (40:03):
Right, and you'll have to report that, right.

Speaker 3 (40:05):
I know, Salage and Go in town very popular restaurant
for a good reason. It's it's excellent food at very
low prices. But they do not allow you to tip.
But I've gotten to know the employees pretty well there
because I'm there once a week usually, and every now
and then I'll go, hey, I found this twenty dollars
bill laying on the ground out here. We might want

(40:27):
to hang on to it in case somebody comes around
for you know, and they appreciate.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
You know, vals too. Valets will get under the table
tips and things like that, So I mean it could definitely,
And overtime workers you know that. I don't think people
to work more should not be incentivized then you get
paid muss. It's like, if you're working just because you
work forty five hours intead of forty how does that
extra five hours, if it's overtime, should get taxed more?
I don't think. I don't think that should be a rule.

Speaker 3 (40:52):
I should just saying you shouldn't be taxed on overtime.

Speaker 2 (40:56):
I'm saying you should be taxed maybe at a lesser
ray you. You know, I felt like, maybe I'm wrong
with this. I feel like bonuses and taxa they get
like they get taxed more they do.

Speaker 3 (41:05):
So all these tariffs and that he's got me thinking
about things made in America, you know, that aren't going
to be subject to the tariffs. And I thought it
was interesting to note that the most American made car
last year, for the third straight year, was drum Roll
Tesla Tesla Model. Why not Tesla but Tesla Model? Why Specifically?

(41:28):
Stock drop five percent on Monday, which may be a
continuation of the recent weakness of a tarriff. There's a
growing backlash against Musk, and you probably can feel that
I have some friends in my life. I'm not one
of these people that can't have friends that aren't that
only have friends that think like me. Right, So I
have friends that don't think like me, and boy, they're

(41:49):
hating on Musk and that can't be good for sales.
You would think that the left side of the aisle
probably accounts for more than half of test with sales. Right.

Speaker 4 (42:00):
Well, I sent you a picture of a bumper sticker
maybe a couple of months back that said, we bought
this Tesla before we knew Elon was crazy. I've seen
a lot more of those lately.

Speaker 3 (42:09):
Yeah, I mean, Musk has really not done himself any favors.
But you know, it is what it is. But it's
good for society, yeah, I mean, he's We've got one
of the sharpest people in history in Washington creating waves.
That can't be a bad thing, right, That can't be
a bad thing when you look at some of the
some of the crazy things that are spent on out there.

(42:31):
But I could go through a list, but it would
disgust you. The hundreds of thousands and tens of millions,
the billions of dollars we're spending on silliness. Yeah, just
silliness in other countries, spending in Guam to for DEI
you know, silliness like that. I mean, really, how's that

(42:53):
our job?

Speaker 2 (42:55):
Well, it's a good This is a good segue into
why a budget's important because if, as you can see,
when the American government doesn't know how to budget correctly,
all of a sudden, you have way more expenses than
the money coming in, and then eventually you have a
bad thing. The good thing for America is they have
a money printer in their basement that they can just
turn on and they can just print more money to
spend for that they could bring in. The normal person

(43:16):
doesn't have that business now, they don't have a money printer.
They actually get they get sent to prison if you
try to do that. So the government's the only person
allowed to do that. So you actually do need to
create a budget. And the normal traditional budget that they
talk about is the fifty to thirty twenty rule. Fifty
percent into needs, thirty percent into wants, twenty percent into
savings and investing. And no one follows that because no

(43:38):
one does twenty percent into savings in investing, but you
should be doing that. And savings and investing would also
include charitable giving and things like that. So fifty percent
into needs. There are things that are needs, bills, house payments,
utility payments. You could put food in there. You're also
gonna have to put in in these days, your phone bill.
That's a necessity, right, Gas car insurance needs that should

(44:02):
be fifty percent. If it's more, then you're out here
living outside of your means. Okay, thirty percent should be
in wants. So wants is like going shopping getting You
don't need a new car. So if you have a
three hundred dollar payment on your car right now and
you're looking at a six hundred dollars, that's three hundred
dollars extra as a want. Vacation, vacations, haircut, would you
throw a haircut in? They probably need a haircut every

(44:23):
now and then, but multiple haircuts, or if you're going
doing your nails twice a month or something like.

Speaker 3 (44:27):
That, getting too far into a weed here, keep that hurt.

Speaker 2 (44:31):
And then twenty percent is into investing in savings. That's
self explanatory. And that's you know, when you talk about
twenty percent, I always talk about gross because most of
the time a lot of your savings is going into
your four to one K. So if you try to
do twenty percent of your net, it's it's gonna the
numbers are going to be all off because you're really
putting your gross away first.

Speaker 3 (44:49):
That's assuming you're funding a four to one K. If
you're not funding a four to one K, you probably
need to use net.

Speaker 2 (44:54):
Correct. Yes, you need to use net if you're not
funding a four to one k right, absolutely right.

Speaker 3 (45:01):
A couple of oil prices down a buck and a
half down to seventy one dollars. Goal keeps going up
another fifty one bucks, a new record high during the
week at twenty eight eighty nine. Yet close again. We've
talked about that on the show. There has to be
large buying from some foreign entity. The only thing that
makes any sense. Platinum is always more expensive than gold,

(45:23):
right now selling for one third, with gold selling for
and if you look at it makes no sense.

Speaker 2 (45:27):
Bitcoin gold have absolutely diverged over the last fifteen days.
Gold has just gone up. Bitcoin has gone down.

Speaker 3 (45:33):
Bitcoin down about five percent of.

Speaker 2 (45:35):
Yeah, So you can't say gold is going up because
the risk assets. You can't say gold's going up. I mean,
the dollar's really not even moved. So none of your
original or historical reasons for gold going up would fall
into picture here. It's just that, like you said, there's
got to be some just huge demand for it, and.

Speaker 3 (45:54):
There's got to be a government demand. It's got some
foreign government.

Speaker 4 (45:57):
It's not probably probably multiple right, it could be.

Speaker 2 (46:01):
Multiple right, David. It's not Costco gold.

Speaker 3 (46:03):
Yeah, Costco buying those one ounce, So.

Speaker 2 (46:05):
I don't think that's I don't think that's moving the market.

Speaker 3 (46:07):
Yeah, we thought initially when it took off that that
might actually have a be playing a role, right, but
it's it's clear that there's something going on here, and
why they're doing it, who knows? Who knows? Well.

Speaker 2 (46:20):
I think the only reason that does make sense is
you're trying to challenge the dollar dollar, the dollar's prevalence
as a world reserve currency, and the show that gold
is going up so much. If gold starts to go
up fifteen percent a year against the dollar, then maybe
country start to think, well, why am I using dollar?
I should be using gold or some gold back currency
or something like that. That's their only chance to get
away from the dollar. No one's going to trust the Chinese.

(46:44):
You know, there is no other currency, No other currency
would ever be accepted, so the only currency that could
in theory would be gold.

Speaker 3 (46:51):
Yeap. When we come back, I want to respond to
a little this craziness we're hearing out there that Trump
is turning things one, which is exactly what he was
hired to do. And he's got a lot of heads
spinning on the left, and uh, we'll be back to
talk about that a little bit right after this break.

Speaker 4 (47:10):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Bors Senior here with Todd Glick Junior and David Sherwood.
Dylan and Dylan and Dean are gone for the week,
so we're just gonna fill in for them. Here's the
numbers for the week. DAL was down five tenths of
a percentage, SMP five hundred was down two tenths of
a percentage. NASDAK Composite was down five tenths of a percentage.
The Russell two thousand the small caps was down two

(47:32):
tenths of a percentage, and the RSP equal weighted sm
P five hundred down six tenths of a percentage.

Speaker 3 (47:38):
So worth performing inducees on the week was the the
RSPD equal weighted sm P five hundred. The best performing
induses on the week was the Russell two thousand small cap.
So a year to date that leads to Dow at
four percent s and P of two and a half,
NASDAK up one. So it's interesting to see the NASDAK,
the tech stocks falling behind the Dow and the S

(48:00):
and P. We haven't seen that for a number of years.
We always say tech is is the fuel that drives
the engine. If you're going to have growth, it's going
to be in tech. And the market leader will always
be tech in the market. What causes market declines will
always be TechEd almost always leads up and down treasury

(48:21):
to your treasury finished to four point two eight ten,
your treasury at four point four eight not much difference.

Speaker 2 (48:28):
Well, as you said, the equ weighted SMP and the
regular s and P S and P regular has been
outperforming the equal weighted for the last two years, and
that has historically reversed where the equal weight will then
outperform the regular SMP because the regular S and P
is weighted way heavily into the top seven top ten
stocks versus the equal weighted is equally weighted across all

(48:51):
five hundred companies. So you get a really better look
at the broad market through the RSP, which is the
equated SMP. Then you do the actual SMP five hundred,
which you can find in like the Spy or something
like that, and not.

Speaker 4 (49:03):
This week, but we're starting to see that perform.

Speaker 2 (49:05):
This year.

Speaker 4 (49:05):
You got the RSP up two point nine percent of
the year that s and P five hundred up two
point five.

Speaker 3 (49:10):
And if you really want to know what the market
is doing, it is the RSP five hundred stocks equally waited.
That's what the market is doing.

Speaker 2 (49:17):
Last year, that market returned twelve percent, not the twenty
five that everyone saw.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
We thought after the strong year in twenty three that
value might become favored. Last year.

Speaker 1 (49:29):
It did not.

Speaker 3 (49:30):
It did fine, but it did not become favored. So
far this year, value is winning.

Speaker 2 (49:35):
And that's because every year tech keeps beating the increases
that the value will beat the tech the next year
will keep increasing. I mean, it's just inevitable. It won't
go on forever. So yeah, it has to happen eventually,
will be this year potentially. If it's not, it probably
be next year then, right.

Speaker 4 (49:51):
Taking a look at the thirty Dell stocks, I mean,
what do you think was the top performer year to date?

Speaker 3 (49:56):
Well, I think I saw the report, so I won't say.

Speaker 4 (49:58):
It's three m.

Speaker 3 (50:00):
Isn't that amazing? It's amazing and it was one of
the top performers last year after years of languishing at
the bottom. I got a new CEO and he's just
kicking it.

Speaker 4 (50:08):
Got killing it up eighteen percent year to date. You
got in Vidio at the very bottom.

Speaker 3 (50:12):
Of the worst performed in the now through the end
of January. Now it had a pretty good week, right,
and he had a pretty darn good week. It's kind
of moving back towards his highs.

Speaker 4 (50:22):
At the end of the January it was down ten
and a half percent, the.

Speaker 3 (50:24):
Worst perform I would have guessed as that that would
be in January. Who's going to be the worst performing
stock in January? Buoying, uh, you know whatever? Not in
video no And and again a lot of that goes
back to that deep Thiek story from two weeks ago
where they supposedly had figured out AI using cheaper, older

(50:47):
chips and you don't have to spend these billions of
dollars buying Nvidia chips.

Speaker 2 (50:52):
And then you saw mixed report saying that they really
did have some new chips. It's just that they weren't
really supposed to have them, and they bought it through
South Korea. Yeah, they bought it through Singapore or these
other Asian countries. And so that's the interesting thing that
we still don't quite know how much of the new
ones they do have, if any But I think it
is fair to say that they are way more efficient

(51:13):
with the chips that they have, because there's no way
they have as many as the American ones. So they
are certainly more efficient with the chips. It's just how
efficient are they is really the story that we have
to know to see is the Blackwell really needed or not?

Speaker 3 (51:26):
I like to in Vidio's response to the question about
Deep Seek, the CEO said, we cheer what they've accomplished,
and they've done a beautiful job of building training wheels
for the bike. Now if you want to ride in
the Tour de Front, you need us. So that's a
good analogy when you think about, oh, yeah, they got

(51:48):
the bike with their training wheels, and n videos got
their Tour de fronts.

Speaker 2 (51:52):
Yeah, I mean, but still, if you don't know how
to use the Tour Defront's bike and you're just some
three hundred pounds do it doesn't matter how cool your
technology is, you still have to know how to use it.
And so I think that's what we're saying too. It's
not just about the hardware, it's about the personnel that's
using the hardware, and if that personnel isn't efficiently using
the hardware the same way that the Chinese personnel is.

Speaker 3 (52:11):
We're losing the UH and Trump. We've found out in
Trump one point zero and now the same thing's happening
in Trump two point zero. He most quickly. He's aggressive,
He makes decisions there. Sometimes you look at him and
you go, wow, that's that's that's aggressive, which is what
we hired him to do, right, fix this thing. And

(52:34):
in this first term, whenever that started happening, it started
spinning a little bit. The Left would get their heads
spin around and they would start talking about, well, you
know what if they're going to come after your savings account,
they're going to get your retirement account, they're going to
get your social Security, they're going to stop Medicare. I'm
starting to hear that from clients over the past couple
of weeks. Stop it, stop it. They're not I get.

(52:56):
I've got a eighty five year old woman who lives
on Maul, which is in the middle of the Mediterranean See,
and she's emailing me about whether or not her social
security is going to be taken away. And I'm very
concerned about Medicare. And I said to her, I said, Marie,
they're not going to take your retirement account. They're not
going to take your Social Security. They're not going to

(53:18):
stop your medicare. Turn off the TV and you hear
these things, and I tell you, I've been hearing this.
I've been in the business for decades and I have
been hearing this for decades, that the government's going to
confiscate retirement accounts, social Security is going to be stopped.
Can you imagine this country having retirement accounts confiscated by

(53:42):
the government. How long do you think that would last.

Speaker 4 (53:44):
We have guns, We got.

Speaker 3 (53:46):
Way more guns than the government, and would get really ugly.
But no, this is not Venezuela people. And when you
hear these stories they're being started by the left. Is
like all of the other stories that you that they're
trying to be come back, like during the election, all
the things that were said that are simply not true.
Take it with a grain of salt, and if you're

(54:07):
being bothered by a turn off the TV, go for
a walk. This is this is just propaganda to try
to diminish the people that are in charge. That's all
it is.

Speaker 2 (54:18):
It absolutely is. It's a game theory aspect. You have
to think about too. If this happens what then? And
people don't not normally think about that. I think people
fall in that trap with gold all the time is
if the world ends, what what? What? What's gonna happen?
I need to have gold, right because well that's the
only thing that people accept. Well, really play that scenario
out right. If they cussle security, what's gonna happen, what's

(54:41):
gonna happen? There's gonna be an uprising? Yeah, and you
think the person in power wants to have protests in
the streets like France did last year.

Speaker 3 (54:47):
Yeah, you want to be overthrown.

Speaker 4 (54:48):
Yeah, of course not except we have guns.

Speaker 3 (54:51):
And what politician would ever go along with that?

Speaker 2 (54:54):
And don't forget the Republicans aren't just Trump. I mean,
if he does something that really makes six seven Republicans mad,
then all of a sudden he loses the majority.

Speaker 3 (55:05):
No, it's Jesus right.

Speaker 2 (55:06):
It's not like everyone is just maga mag all the way.
There are some in the middle Republicans that could easily
flip and we saw that make his life difficult in
the first term when they don't believe in what he
wants exactly to happen. So it's not that it's just, oh,
he can do whatever he wants. There's a lot of
checks and balances that we talked about in the last
segment about the tips on the tax on tips and

(55:29):
the overtime. He can't just do that.

Speaker 1 (55:31):
It's not how it works.

Speaker 2 (55:32):
There's a whole checks and balances of this system.

Speaker 3 (55:35):
Apparently he can change the Golf of Mexico to the
Gulf of America.

Speaker 2 (55:38):
Apparently that's not the wall.

Speaker 3 (55:41):
About that, And it probably should have been the Gulf
of America all along because it's surrounded by America.

Speaker 2 (55:46):
North America.

Speaker 3 (55:47):
Yeah, Golf of North America.

Speaker 2 (55:49):
That was probably the best one, go all the way right.

Speaker 4 (55:52):
Taking a look at the S and P sectors this year,
these are numbers all ending in the at the end
of January or about way late on these, but XLV
being the top performing sector, you got them up six
point eight percent. Xlvs are health care sector. I thought
that that was very interesting, just because you know, I
know that XLV does not just contain Eli, Lilly and

(56:15):
Novo Nordisk, but they're huge chunks of them and they
haven't United healthcare right, Novo hasn't performed that well. But
I was surprised to see Eli Lillies up twelve percent
year to dates. I thought that they had, you know,
kind of been getting wrecked recently with all the GLP
one news they had.

Speaker 3 (56:28):
The stock was around nine with all time high was
nine sixty nine eighty something like that, and it went
all the way down to eight hundred. Yeah, and recently
and then it's just been kind of on a steady climb.

Speaker 4 (56:40):
I'm like, same thing, same thing, same thing with Novo.

Speaker 3 (56:43):
Your Novo had an arnage report, had had some weakness
last week.

Speaker 4 (56:47):
Yeah, they hadn't. Actually I thought that they reported very
good earnings.

Speaker 3 (56:50):
Yeah, I was, but the stock and the stock did
rebound a bit.

Speaker 4 (56:54):
Yeah, it kind of yawned at it. I mean it
did move. It's trending a little bit higher, kind of
doing the same thing like you said, Eli, and just
kind of trending higher slowly, but surely it seems that
way hopefully continues. X.

Speaker 2 (57:05):
That might be because that Novo is not in that
and if they are, they're not in the top ten.
And it might be because Novo's international company.

Speaker 4 (57:12):
You let Lily is what they're top holding, and they're
weighted what thirteen percent.

Speaker 2 (57:17):
It's twelve and it's United Healthcare, Johnson and Johns, so that.

Speaker 3 (57:21):
Would make sense to Novo was up five percent on
Wednesday to refort a strong quarter. Lily followed two Doo
on Thursday with their own option Missie report. The weight
loss drugs are selling like hotcakes. The problem they're running
into is pricing. There's so much competition from the compound
pharmacies who stole their not in the steel. They were

(57:42):
given the formula and now they're producing producers. The government says,
really gonna make them.

Speaker 2 (57:48):
I heard someone my age actually on the epic well
one of the semi gluten sides, which, like you're starting
to hear a lot more people in the in their
twenties even going on this thing. So you think that
it's only just maybe a forties and up type of medicine,
miss it's not. There's a lot of people that would
rather do that than go actually just work out and

(58:09):
eat well.

Speaker 3 (58:10):
I think there's not a lot of thought goes into
it because that is something that we're on for life.

Speaker 4 (58:15):
We live in a world of instant gratification. So if
I could start losing weight instantly, why wouldn't.

Speaker 2 (58:20):
I do that?

Speaker 3 (58:20):
I have a guy I hike with on Tumba Mak
and he went on vacation and got a little chunky,
tall guy and maybe twenty pounds overweight, not you know,
not huge. But he went to his doctor and said, yeah,
I'm his doctor gave him mozambi and he said, I
was on it for thirty days. He said, I lost
twenty pounds and he said, then I stopped and he

(58:43):
gave it back. So I mean, you go on ozempik
or or whatever it is, you're on it for life.
I mean it's not you know, try it too. And
I've heard the Great business Model yeah, yoh yeah, yeah,
that's good for Lilyan noble, right, but I heard it
was him, Well, maybe you're only on until you get
down to a certain weight and then you your lifestyle

(59:03):
will kick in. And I'm thinking, if you're willing to
take a weekly is a weekly inject something into your
body every week of four years, you're probably you probably
don't have the discipline not to do that. I'm just
a guess.

Speaker 2 (59:19):
You know who does have discipline. UFC fighters they got
they got to put in some work and this is
a fun one. TKO is a stock that owns UFC
and they also own WWE, the wrestling people, and that
stock has just absolutely killed a year to date, it's
up seventeen percent, but over the last year it's actually

(59:40):
up ninety six percent.

Speaker 4 (59:41):
Ridiculous. Is that all that's under that umbrella?

Speaker 2 (59:43):
That is just UFC and ww or it says TKO group.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
Holder holding revenue growth behind that.

Speaker 2 (59:51):
Yes, there is actually now they just started having negative margins,
but they do have I mean, they make about one
point six billion dollars in twenty twenty three. They technically
lost money on the year, but they are bringing in
a lot of revenue and it's predominantly UFCNWWE. That's pretty
much what TKO.

Speaker 4 (01:00:08):
Is and I mean, you could thank Joe Rogan and
Dana White for that. I think they've done a great
job at increasing that.

Speaker 3 (01:00:16):
On a more well known drug drug more well known stock,
we're typeled to drugs, more well known stock. Alphabet, the
parent of Google, rough week all time high last Tuesday
and then down eight percent on Wednesday after fourth quarter
revenue was disappointing. They also, this is funny interesting, Alphabet

(01:00:37):
said they're going to invest seventy five billion dollars in
twenty twenty five in artificial intelligence. They had originally thought
to be fifty eight billion, now seventy five billion, And
that's one of the reasons that and Video had a
better week. The other is that Amazon reported on Thursday

(01:00:59):
night great order, but they said they're going to spend
h with it one hundred billion dollars on AI and
what they call the opportunity of a lifetime and the
stock was down ten points on that. But all of
those things bode well for Vidio. If these companies are saying, wow,
you know, I'm probably not going to go get my

(01:01:20):
deep seek chip chip. You know. Speaking of which deep Seek,
there's currently a bill going through Congress to prevent deep
Seek from being on any government device.

Speaker 4 (01:01:31):
Well, hey, deep Seek doesn't make chips, so you.

Speaker 2 (01:01:33):
Know, uh, yeah, they don't make chips.

Speaker 4 (01:01:36):
Okay, right, it's a model that was trained on the use.

Speaker 3 (01:01:40):
They made the model.

Speaker 4 (01:01:41):
Right right, right, right right.

Speaker 2 (01:01:42):
It's just imagine it like an app, right, and they
don't you don't want you to download that app. It's
like TikTok. You're not downloading this if you're on government
It makes perfect sense. There's security risks.

Speaker 3 (01:01:51):
Yeah, and it's a similar TikTok and and and now,
of course this is in retaliation for for the US
government's China saying that the Apple fall could not be
brought to work to government employees could not bring Apple
phones to work. So then now we're saying, well you have,
then your TikTok needs to get out of here. Deep
Seak needs to get.

Speaker 2 (01:02:12):
Yeah, I mean there is some there is some real
security issues though with the TikTok and the if it's
controlled by a communist state, if it's if deep seat
is controlled by a communist state and we're using it,
they all that data is going to them. Absolutely, it's
a huge security risk.

Speaker 3 (01:02:26):
So there's a reason the very silent war going on
between the United States and China. Yeah, it's the cyber war,
very quiet cyber war. Has fought these cat and tariffs
and back and forth and try.

Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
And Google was a company that got a little bit
of that tit for tat because they got an anti
trust probe on them from China. What that means who knows.
China is probably mad that they didn't say exactly what
China wanted them to say. Google has a really hard
time in China because China has us. If you go
to China, there's a specific Google for the citizens, and

(01:03:01):
it's not the same Google that we use. Yeah, it's
it's filtered to the Communist party's liking. So when you
search something, it searches and brings up the results that
they want you to see, not the results of what's.

Speaker 3 (01:03:15):
Actually out there.

Speaker 2 (01:03:17):
That's what's Yeah, and that's what the Chinese communist parties
mad at Google for most likely is they didn't do
exactly what they wanted him to do. And but with China,
you know, having over a billion people, it's obviously a
huge market for Google, so they have to kind of
play by those roles. It's it reminds me of NBA
five years ago, how they had this whole falling out where,

(01:03:37):
you know, so much money comes from the China because
so many viewers are in China, and they have to
kind of be beholden. You know, he saw his rocket
CEO that he didn't quite say this is the right thing,
and then he had to walk back his comments because
he made China mad. You know Disney for example, right, Yeah,
you know these companies that get beholden in China because
it's such a revenue producer and you kind of get

(01:03:59):
locked up. Been that deal where you can't lose the money,
but you also can't do what you're supposed to be doing.

Speaker 3 (01:04:05):
We saw We saw that with Apple this past week,
down on Wednesday, and reports the Chinese regulators are considering
considering starting a formal probe into Apple's app store fees
and policies again retaliation for the tariffs. It's this war
that's going on between the US and China. It's just
the number one economy in the world and the number

(01:04:25):
two economy in the world.

Speaker 2 (01:04:27):
The difference is we have the money printer. That's why
I will always have more power than them.

Speaker 3 (01:04:32):
One of my favorite stocks, Ford down seven percent to
a five year low after a solid quarter and a
special dividend, but disappointing guidance. The dreaded disappointing guidance. Yeah,
you know, six and a half percent dividend. You wonder
if that dividend is safe right now?

Speaker 2 (01:04:50):
It is.

Speaker 3 (01:04:51):
The earnings are alrea recover it, but if you can,
there's not much you can earn six and a half
percent on in this environment and have upside potential as well.
Recommending any stock, we say in our disclaimer we don't
know your investment objectives. We don't know your risk tolerant.
So if we say something on the show about a
stock that you think is interesting, what's what's this dividend?

(01:05:13):
Six and a half?

Speaker 4 (01:05:14):
I'm showing eight point four?

Speaker 3 (01:05:15):
No, that's that's that's wrong.

Speaker 2 (01:05:18):
Might be because of the special dividend.

Speaker 3 (01:05:19):
Oh, I bet that's it. They threw the special dividend
in there. You know, we talked a lot about the
fires in California and looking for somebody to blame, and
one of the early casualties was Edison International, who's a
parent of Southern California Edison. We remember the Paradise fire
in northern California, Pacific Gas Electric stock lost eighty percent

(01:05:42):
of its value. Remember the fires in Maui when the
Hawaiian Electric lost ninety percent of its value. Edison International
is currently not about forty percent? Is that a five
year loll? I'm going to argue that it's going lower
because they believe the company believes their equipment may have

(01:06:05):
sparked at least the Hurst fire and perhaps others. The
company believes that stock's down for I think that stock
is going to could could go fifty to sixty seventy
percent if you're playing around with Edison International and thinking, man,
I gotta get this. It's got a great dividend, it's
going to bounce back. Look at Pacific Gas and Electrics,

(01:06:26):
look at the wild Electric. If if the if IF
Southern California, Edison is found to be responsible for even
half of the fires, that stock is in trouble. I'm
not saying the company is going to go out of business,
but the stock has a lot more downside based upon
what we've seen out of two very similar situations. They'll

(01:06:49):
just be careful out there. If you're playing around with
Edison International.

Speaker 2 (01:06:51):
And that also Bowse weell to the ideas why you
don't have all your company's stock in your four to
one K plan Because if you're working for Edison and
all of a sudden, you wake up one morning, you
see that fires are happening in California and you're not
even thinking about how this connects to your retirement planning,
But then two weeks later its stocks down forty percent

(01:07:11):
because people are starting to think that they're the reason
for it. And you put all your four to one
K into this Edison company, and all of a sudden,
now your four one K is worth forty percent less.
You know, if you're working at a company, it makes
a lot of sense to rediversify out of that company
stock into other companies because you don't want to have
your income and your retirement wagering on one company. That's

(01:07:32):
why people with Enron absolutely couldn't retire when that company
was found to be bloney.

Speaker 3 (01:07:39):
Absolutely, And we we we've espoused this for decades. And
I had a gal come in four or five years ago.
She was a cashier at Costco and she was fifty
five side to take early retirement, and all she'd ever
done are four to one k cashier at costcos. I
don't know what cashiers at Costco make, but I don't
think it's a quarter million dollars. Okay, So she was

(01:08:00):
a cashier Costco came in one point three million dollars
because all she ever did was buy Cosco.

Speaker 2 (01:08:04):
Costco stuck.

Speaker 3 (01:08:06):
I get you know, as long as your company stock
is the right one, and of course everybody thinks their
company stock is right.

Speaker 2 (01:08:13):
We tell we say this to business owners too, that
reinvest into your own business most of the time. If
it's as if anything, you take more risk, you're gonna
expect higher return, right. I mean, if I put down
on black and I double my money, and I put
it down on black again, and I keep doing that,
that compounding effect is going to be pretty beautiful to watch.
But the one time it doesn't land on black and

(01:08:35):
it lands on red and I bet it all, I
lose it all too. So you have to understand the
risk and reward of it. If you take on more risks,
the return can be higher. And that's what business owners
you can see. I mean business owners called bankrupt business
owners do also make millions and millions of dollars.

Speaker 3 (01:08:50):
Right, But if you have, if you do try to
you a very good point. But if you do take
on more risks, there has to be more return, right.
You get like it's like a gambler. I was again gamble.
When you're gambling on something, depend upon who you've been
on you, you may be able to make ten percent
on your money or you lose it all. That's not
good risk reward trade off right, Right, what you'd like

(01:09:11):
is ten percent downside forty percent upside, right. You know
that's the kind of thing you look for, So that's important.

Speaker 2 (01:09:17):
It's super important. You got to understand what your your
ability to actually risk. And that's what comes back to
that risk tollance questionnaire, and that's what the questions that
asks you says, are you willing to accept one hundred
percent return or trade that away for the possibility of
saying you might make one hundred and fifty or lose
fifty percent? Are do you rather just take that one

(01:09:38):
hundred percent or do you want to try to play
the game for the extra fifty or you could lose
the thing?

Speaker 4 (01:09:41):
And we get a lot of people to say that
they hate that question, and truly, I think that's because
it actually makes you think about it. Yeah, it makes
you think about the question that you don't really want
to answer.

Speaker 3 (01:09:49):
It's make a decision, right, Yeah, absolutely that. I think
that's absolutely true. One stock that has been a horrible
place to have your money speaking about risk reward is Starbucks.
They hire Brian Nichols, who was the former CEO of
Taco Bell and great success there, former CEO of CHIPOTLEI

(01:10:12):
super success there comes on to Starbucks that they announced
the hiring him. Stock goes from seventy five to ninety
five and kind of languishing there. They came out with
his first quarterly report first full quarter as him as CEO,
and it was not great because it's going to take
some time to turn the mayfall around, but it did

(01:10:33):
show some changes happening that people really got on board with.
Stock went from ninety five up to about one twelve
or so oh twenty percent over the last two weeks,
and the rally that continued that started a week ago
also continued last week to Starbucks getting to a point
now where it's probably getting a little pricey. Uh, if
you've got some Starbucks. We took twenty five percent off

(01:10:57):
of our position on Thursday, just cautionary. I mean, it's
run from seventy five to one hundred and twelve. It's
pretty good. I think Brian Nichols is going to be
all that and I think the stock could go ultimately
go to a new all time hiji. I said that
last week, and it's still got thirteen points to go
on that. But it's come an awfully long way in
a very short period of time, and there's still work

(01:11:19):
to be done. And remember, he's working from home, no
matter what Trump says, He's working from home. Now. We'll
be back right after this break with the last two
segments of the Money Matter Show. Thanks for joining us
on this Super Bowl Sunday.

Speaker 2 (01:11:33):
Welcome back to the Money Matters Show. My name is Todlick,
I'm Harris Sebastian Borssini and David Sherwood. We've had a
fun week in the market. It's a lot of volatility.
I want to talk a little bit about something that
we talk with in financial planning, and it's called a
four percent rule. It's a simple way to estimate how
much you need in retirement savings. Four percent is the
rule that a lot of endowments also use to figure

(01:11:53):
out how long will a portfolio last. And so what
you can easily do is say, okay, if I need
sixty thousand dollars a year, divide that number er point
oh four and you'll get the actual principle that you'll
need to start retirement with to be able to sufficiently
across the tax though. That's a very simple way to
put it in your IRA though, right right, there's a

(01:12:14):
lot of things that then that's just a very simple
way to do it. Of course, because then money though,
because then if you talk about iras and you have
a million dollars in IRA that's not a million dollars
because it's really about seven to fifty after taxes. So
and then if you're off IRA, a million dollars is
a million dollars. In a brokerage account, a million dollars
may be worth a million dollars depends on how what

(01:12:35):
you started with. If you started with eight hundred thousand
in there and now it's worth a million, well you
probably have something like nine hundred and twenty five thousand
or something like that, right because you're paying fifteen percent
most likely on long term tax capital gains out of
anything that you hold for more than a year, So
if you have two hundred thousand of unrealized gains, you
have to take into that account. So that's what our

(01:12:55):
financial planning software helps with determining how much do we
actually need after and before taxes. But one of the
cool things that we don't talk too much on the
show about is our strategic income model. We call it
our SIM model, and it allows to help accounts get
a little bit more than that four percent rule. Now, obviously,
if you go more than four percent rule, likely your

(01:13:16):
account's gonna drain over time. Meaning if you start with
a million and you do a little more than four percent.
It depends on your investment returns, of course, but in
theory it's gonna drain a little bit year over year. Okay,
So what we have to do with the strategic income
model is decide how are we gonna limit mitigate We're

(01:13:36):
gonna mitigate the risk on sequence of returns risk. Sequence
of returns risk is saying if we have a financial
plan that's going to average seven percent every single year
from year one to year thirty, that's gravy. But in
reality markets don't do that. They'll be up twelve, they'll
be down three, they'll be up seven, and they might
average around seven over the course of those thirty years.

(01:13:59):
But there's gonna be a lot of irations here and there.
And the problem with retirement planning is if you start
with say a million, and you have three straight years
of negative and now you're only at seven to fifty
and you're still pulling money out that seven fifty, we'll
never have a chance to get back up to the
million because the principle's not there to get growing again.
So what we're able to do with the strategic income
model is we build out a bond ladder and a

(01:14:19):
bond ladder is five years worth of bonds in different maturities.
So we'll buy a one year bond, a two year bond,
three year, four year, and five year bond. And what
that does is it gives us five years of income
that we are going to send to you put away
locked away into a bond ladder, and it gives us
a five year investment window. Because what we know with
investments in the markets is there's only been two times

(01:14:41):
since the Great Depression that the markets have returned three
straight years of negative So if we can last five years,
we're pretty certain that the market will then rebound higher.
And what this allows us to do is we don't
have to buy high and sell low, because when we
have the income already put away, we don't have we
have to sell equities. When the markets perform badly, we

(01:15:03):
can allow them to then reverse and perform because we
didn't sell out of that bucket. They come back up,
and we can sell at highs to replenish the income buckets.
It's a lot easier to visualize this in one of
our proposal meetings, and that's why we definitely say give
us a call five two zero five four four four
nine zero nine. We can go through the financial plan,
look at your accounts, look at what the income needs

(01:15:24):
that you have, and then also build out whether it's
a strategic income model. We sometimes use map models if
the spending needs are below the four percent rule. But
all of these are just goes in to show that
the complexities of financial plan, the complexities of the distribution
phase is very difficult. It's much easier to do the
accumulation phase yourself without an advisor, because really you just

(01:15:46):
need to put it in the S and P. Five hundred.
You keep investing, you keep contributing because you're in your
working years, there's not much to worry about. But eventually
you get to the point where we retire and now
it hits a distribution phase that's way harder. That's where
you need to have the knowledge of how does Medicare
brackets get impacted if I take more out of my
IRA versus my ROTH, How are taxes implicated if I

(01:16:07):
do ROTH conversions. There's so many things that you have
to keep in mind, and there's a lot of things
that you won't know unless you work with a professional.
So what we offer is a free financial plan to
go through all your financial situations, run it through our
risk analyzing software, see how risky you are as an individual,
and build a tailored plan that we give you completely free.

(01:16:27):
You can take it, do with it as you wish.
There's not going to be any cost, there's no obligation
to go do business with us. We just want the
opportunity that we are the ones if you do want
to work with an advisor.

Speaker 3 (01:16:39):
Moving forward, now, today goes by in the office here
that you guys don't do at least one financial plan,
very few days where you don't do at least two.
A lot of people, a lot of you out there
are responding to our offer of a free financial plan,
no obligation, and we sincerely mean that we are seeing
too many people to be chasing you around trying to

(01:17:02):
beat you into doing business. Was we just unfortunately have
too many people coming in and that's a nice problem
to have.

Speaker 4 (01:17:10):
Definitely, And going back to Todd's SIM model, if you're questioning, well,
what about the last two years of the market's totally
had a great couple last years, right, Aren't I limiting
my gain potential with the SIM model by laddering these bonds? Yeah,
sure you are. But like Todd said, the sequence of
returns risk is non existent. Its existence, but we're limiting it.

(01:17:31):
And at the same time, part of that strategic income model,
we got twenty five percents of your accounts into the
GfG model. It's a proprietary model built here in house,
and it covers all indexes, and we will never go
below that twenty five percent, just because we know that
markets do run higher sometimes and we do want to
participate in those gains if they happen like they happened
in the last two years.

Speaker 3 (01:17:52):
And what every single investor has wanted. I've been doing
this for decades, and I understand that what every single
investor wants is to be fully invested in dock when
the market's going out and fully in cash when the
market's going down. So it's really simple. If we could
just figure that out, we would be really really successful.
Next week, got a couple of things on the calendar.
We're back to normal. On Wednesday we get CPI, which

(01:18:14):
is still a market mover. YEP. Thursday ration Thursday we
got PPI, so that's which is not quite as much
of a market mover as CPI. But Mark Hey, I
thought an interesting story on Uber. This was on Friday
rally twenty five percent in the last twelve months. Uber
Friday eight percent on Friday after it was disclosed. Get this.

(01:18:37):
Activist Bill Agman said he started buying the stock in
early January. Now it's up twenty five percent in the
last twelve months, up about twenty percent in the last
thirty days because Bill Aigman's been buying it. This here's
the interesting part about it. He disclosed that he's been
buying it since January. Now has thirty million shares, which
is one and a half percent of the company. He

(01:18:59):
does not have to disclose what he's doing until it
gets to ten percent. So he's doing that in the
hopes of getting you to help him drive this stock higher.

Speaker 2 (01:19:07):
Of course he's doing that. I I mean I saw
that article. I then looked up Uber and I was wondering, Okay, well,
come on, what's what's this pe like? And it's pretty cheap.
It's about sixteen yeah on the pe. So when you
start to look at that, it's a little interesting.

Speaker 3 (01:19:25):
I want a dovetail little bit on the uh you
said about the strategic income model, and Sebastian followed up,
one thing you have to keep in mind is that risk.
Excuse me, safety is not free. Safety cost. You have
to give something. Pay for the word guarantee, pay for
the Yeah, you pay for the word guarantee. Right, it's

(01:19:46):
you have to you say guarantee.

Speaker 2 (01:19:48):
I say guarantee.

Speaker 3 (01:19:48):
Yeah, you pay for the word yeah. And you do
have to pay for the word. So if you want
to have an annuity that is guaranteed to have no downside,
you're going to have to give up some upside.

Speaker 2 (01:19:58):
Yeah, and there's a given model.

Speaker 3 (01:20:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:20:01):
We were talking to a client today where annuity can
offer you higher guaranteed monthly payments. But the take is
that your heirs will probably not have anything. There won't
be anything left. They're probably going to be zero.

Speaker 3 (01:20:15):
For one hundred years. The best investment has been to
be one hundred percent invested in the stock market at
all times. However, that comes with volatility that many people cannot.

Speaker 2 (01:20:28):
Tolerate at certain stages of life.

Speaker 3 (01:20:30):
At any stage, I have thirty year olds to or
one hundred percent of fixed in company.

Speaker 2 (01:20:33):
Yeah, well they're just they're just mentally understanding.

Speaker 3 (01:20:37):
I have a ninety year old who keeps telling me
we're too conservative. So there's no, really age. You said, well,
you should have bonds equivalent this you guys may have
never heard this because it goes back to back in
the day. You should have your portfolio should be the
allocation to bonds in your portfolio should be your age.
It's ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (01:20:58):
That is ridiculous.

Speaker 3 (01:20:59):
I mean, by the way you talked about the different
rules of four percent to most people don't know what
the rule of seventy two is, which is kind of cool.
It's a cool rule to know. The rule of seventy
two is if you take the number seventy two and
divide your rate of return into the number seventy two,

(01:21:19):
you will get approximately how many years it takes to
double your money. So if you are getting six percent,
the money will double in twelve years. If you're getting
twelve percent, the money will double in six years.

Speaker 2 (01:21:31):
Yeah. I always just do ten percent some point two years.

Speaker 3 (01:21:34):
Yeah, if you look there, you at works two ten
percent seven point two years. Although it's actually if you
google it, it's actually the rule of like sixty nine
point eight.

Speaker 2 (01:21:43):
Yeah, it's technically a little bit off.

Speaker 3 (01:21:44):
Yeah, it's a little bit off it, but seventy two
is divisible by a lot of numbers, and that's why
they used seventy two. But the rule of seventy two
how long it takes money to double at a specific
rate of beakers?

Speaker 2 (01:21:54):
I mean, it's all compounding, is the biggest thing. What
would you rather do? Would you take a million dollars
today or a penny that doubles every day for thirty days?

Speaker 3 (01:22:01):
Oh, for thirty days, I'll take the million. You'll take
the million, Yeah, because the penny is going to double
every day for thirty days.

Speaker 2 (01:22:08):
Yeah, do that day, I'll do that.

Speaker 3 (01:22:10):
Well, you're setting this up to what the penny for
thirty days?

Speaker 2 (01:22:14):
Yeah, that gets you, gets you five million? Whoa, that's
that's how that's how days?

Speaker 3 (01:22:20):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:22:21):
Haven't you heard Tod's analogy of the stack in the paper?
How many times if you fold the paper? You know me,
fold the paper on top of itself? How many times
does it take to reach from the Earth to the moon.
It's like forty seven, it's forty two times.

Speaker 2 (01:22:31):
There you go, You only have to fold the paper
forty two times. Look it up, David. It's a real thing.

Speaker 3 (01:22:37):
Penny thing's got me got my head spin. I know
what I'm doing this weekend.

Speaker 2 (01:22:41):
Yeah, compound. Dave's going to be compounding a penny thirty times.

Speaker 3 (01:22:45):
I don't have to get a lot of pennies. I'm
going to be at the bank for a long time.
How many pennies?

Speaker 2 (01:22:52):
See that's something that chat GBT you can do for you. You say, hey,
compound a penny every day for thirty days double and
what what's the answer? And it can do that for
you very quickly.

Speaker 3 (01:23:00):
Maybe I'll just use chat and then I can have
a decent weekend.

Speaker 2 (01:23:03):
There you go, right, you can go to Tummak and stuff.

Speaker 3 (01:23:07):
I'll go to Timmamuk and do the pennies on tim
of Mauk. That'd be a trick. I'll probably fall down again,
crashed and hurt myself because I'm a I'm an advanced
age where I can't be left alone without supervision.

Speaker 4 (01:23:20):
You're just a cute old man.

Speaker 3 (01:23:23):
I was complaining. We gotta tell the story. I was
complaining to people about as you get older, younger women
start opening doors for you. And that's as an older person,
that's something that as a man that's hard to get
used to. I'm slowly getting used to it. And I
teld my daughter about that one day and she goes,
Let's face it, Dad, you're just a cute little old man. Really,

(01:23:44):
so I've gone from Brad Pitt a cute little old man.
When did that happen? Anyway, we'll be back with more
of the Money Matter Show right after this break. This
is a cute litt old man signing off.

Speaker 4 (01:23:58):
Welcome back to the last segment of The Money Matter Show.
My name is Sebastian Borsini here with David Sherwood and
Todd click Junr. I wanted to go back to Uber
real quick. I just thought it was interesting because you
talked about what's what's his name?

Speaker 2 (01:24:08):
Bill?

Speaker 3 (01:24:09):
Ye?

Speaker 4 (01:24:10):
Yeah, so that he came out with that release literally
a day after their horrible earnings report and then brought
the stock back up ten percent. Absolutely, How was that
not price monip?

Speaker 3 (01:24:22):
But you know, I guess if you've earned if you
earned that power.

Speaker 4 (01:24:25):
Yeah, I guess, so we'll use it.

Speaker 3 (01:24:28):
I mean, look at Hindenburg, the short seller. Every time Hindon,
because they were right once on can't micro strategy. Yeah,
they were right once where it went from eighty to
like ten and after after they said you need to
sell this short and get out whatever. So now every
time they shot something tanks the stock, So all they've

(01:24:48):
got to do is short stock. Again. Shorting is selling
stock you don't own in the anticipation that you can
buy it back cheaper. All they have to do is
short of stock and uh making announce But that Hindenburg
has short of this dock and down it goes down
ghost they buy it all back. I guess if you
if you have that power, you might as well use it. Hey,
did you see PVH. PVH is is clined French company. Yeah, client,

(01:25:14):
French base. This is the richest man in the world, right.

Speaker 2 (01:25:16):
Well, he owns a conglomerate of like thirty of these. Yeah,
Calvin Klein and Ralph I don't know, probably laughte.

Speaker 3 (01:25:24):
Tommy Bahama, I mean pretty much everything down six point
six percent on Monday to a fifty two week low
after Wells Fargo's downgraded it from hold to buy. Now
it's down at a fifty two week low, and Wells
Fargo is going to say, you know what, don't buy
it anymore. Let's hold it.

Speaker 4 (01:25:43):
Your analysts analyst drive me nuts, dude.

Speaker 3 (01:25:46):
They do for me too, saying it feels like a
value trap because the mounting issues regarding inventory risk and
foreign currency pressure. And then on Thursday, China place the
company on its list. You don't want to be on
more reliable entities list, which could force us to shut
down store, cease manufacturing, and send employees home.

Speaker 4 (01:26:07):
How the heck is that unreliable? I mean you sell close.

Speaker 3 (01:26:09):
You don't want to be on the unreliable entities list
in China. No, no, no, that's not a good list
to be on. Not a good list at all. Speaking
of China, Elf Beauty down sixty percent from the high
forty four percent drop in the last five weeks, down
another twenty percent on Friday. These cosmetic companies are really struggling.

Speaker 2 (01:26:30):
Whether it be Sun they drop twenty two percent this week.

Speaker 3 (01:26:35):
Yeah, and it's because of China.

Speaker 2 (01:26:36):
I mean that stock was at four three seventy five
at one point they played that sixty five bucks.

Speaker 3 (01:26:43):
Three seventy five to sixty five bucks. And that's pretty
typical of that space that Speaking of stocks that have tank, right,
how about a firm did you see that this past week?
The tank in July of last year. It's a buy now,
pay later company. Right in July of last year, this
I hit a low of twenty two dollars. There was
actually talk about, well, maybe this is just not going

(01:27:04):
to be that great a business. Maybe there aren't that
many people interested. That Friday, the stock pop twenty percent.
It is now seventy five bucks. Wow, it was twenty
two dollars in July of last year, now seventy five bucks.
They exceeded Ernie is they exceeded revenue for the second quarter.
Apparently by now pay later? Is all that sashion? You
mentioned you've been seeing some signs around.

Speaker 4 (01:27:25):
Yeah, I'd been talking about how I saw Klarna signs
over at the Tucson Outlet malls, and I actually see
them over at the Tucson Mall as well. Now yea
and every store within the mall. Pretty much every store,
I won't speak for all of them except Klarna or
some form of save or buy now pay later a firm.
I think that they're doing really good just because they
have a deal with Amazon. Now you can check out

(01:27:46):
through Amazon with the firm and by now pay later.

Speaker 3 (01:27:50):
That said, speaking of having an agreement with somebody who
knows what they're doing. How about Peloton hooking up with Costco?
That was that was. I don't know how they how
they pulled that off or who came up with that idea.
But Peloton stock has gone from two to eight on
and now I haven't It was for alimited time only
I think December, January, February, and I have not seen

(01:28:13):
anything about renewing that. But I'm guessing people who are
buying that stock are thinking that's gonna COSTCO is going
to be pleased with how it's going.

Speaker 4 (01:28:21):
I still I still see it as an expensive clothes wreck.

Speaker 3 (01:28:24):
I'm no. I mean there's a lot of a lot
of close wrecks, a lot of I think.

Speaker 2 (01:28:29):
That happened this week was RFK got past his Finance
and whatever else committee he had to go through, so
now he's awaiting his final vote to be sworn in
as the Health Secretary. And off the back of that,
you saw vaccine companies get hit hard and farmers and
psychedelic companies get a bid. And you were talking about

(01:28:49):
this earlier in the week, Dave, about the the PTSD
and you were seeing something I'm not sure what.

Speaker 3 (01:28:55):
You saw its Morning News last last Sunday talking to
a group of veterans about this, and the success ratio
was up around eighty percent of getting rid of PTSD
with sake elis. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:29:11):
I mean, it's just that's incredible to hear that type
of success rate off of something that isn't produced by
a pharmaceutical company and to be a psychedelist kind of
a new way of medicine there. So obviously it's not
largely approved in the current FDA administration. So if you
have an RFK, he would definitely He's already said it,
he would be gun ho to be the first one

(01:29:32):
to fully approve this for veterans and all that can be.
I think that's a really good thing on multiple levels,
and I am rooting for RFK. It looks like he
will get in. The Republicans have a pretty good majority,
About five Republicans would have to go against him for
him not to get sworn.

Speaker 3 (01:29:53):
So, speaking of a big pharma Pfizer, most people buy
Fighter for six and a half percent dividend, which Ben
it's been a stock that has not really been that
exciting over the years, but it's been a real uh
steady dividend payer a Pfizer six and a half percent dividend,
And of course we saw COVID. The stock doubled during
COVID that was rare. There aren't There aren't those many,

(01:30:17):
those many, There aren't that many opportunities for a company
the size of Pfizer to really move the needle. Yeah,
so it doesn't do much. Uh. It did higher on
Tuesday after reporting that income was about thirty five percent
above what analysts expected, but he kind of a yawned.
Merk opened nine percent lower on Tuesday after the giant

(01:30:38):
issued full year guidance that fell short of expectations. Guidance.
Maybe they're watching those Senate hearings.

Speaker 4 (01:30:46):
I don't know, Hey going, I want to go back
to China real quick. PDD and Ali Baba they've had
a hell of a year.

Speaker 2 (01:30:52):
Yeah, we'll be hyded too. I mean the Chinese stocks
are doing well.

Speaker 4 (01:30:55):
Ali Baba's up twenty two percent year to day. PDD
and Alibaba drops pretty hard on Tuesday, I think late
Tuesday because of the US Postal Service suspended incoming packages
from China and Hong Kong next day Wednesday, up. USPS
later reversed course on the action and said that it
would intend to resume receiving packages from those regions. Really

(01:31:15):
killing it though, twenty two percent, Ali Baba said one
hundred and three dollars to share.

Speaker 2 (01:31:19):
Well, Ali Bob is still very cheap. I mean they're
they're under twenty times PE and that and they're a
really big market.

Speaker 3 (01:31:26):
Ap is essentially the Amazon, so they.

Speaker 2 (01:31:30):
Get it, get an Amazon that cheap. I mean, oh yeah.
They were just getting beat up because of how bad
it seme with PDD.

Speaker 3 (01:31:36):
The Chinese economy and the and the lack of transparency.
And we've been we've we've been out of our Chinese
shocks for a couple of years. Just be well, in
full disclosure. We felt that the economy there was softening,
but but the primary thing that got is out was
just this lack of transparency. We just didn't know what's
going on.

Speaker 2 (01:31:54):
Trust and BYD hit a new all time high. And
that's the Build your Own Dream that it's that's the
car company out of China that does all the EV's
and they are now the number one EV car maker
in China and Tesla and that Tesla's not even too
I think.

Speaker 4 (01:32:06):
Actually the biggest EV seller in Mexico. They're all over Mexico.
Picture the other day, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:32:13):
The c ye wouldn't it o?

Speaker 4 (01:32:16):
BYD that in front of the truck.

Speaker 2 (01:32:18):
Yeah, okay, finished up six percent on Friday, and yeah,
I mean this company over the last years of ninety percent,
they're going really good.

Speaker 3 (01:32:26):
One of the things that Trump has pointed out pretty
frequently is that China is doing things like this, like
the biggest trucks in Mexico, the biggest electric car seller
in Mexico.

Speaker 1 (01:32:36):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (01:32:36):
They're doing things in Panama to Panama Canal. They're doing
things with rare earth minerals in Africa. These are things
that we're just kind of like, really, you know, We're
just we're so busy trying to save the world and
China is busy trying to save themselves. Big difference.

Speaker 2 (01:32:53):
Something I want to talk about was first Solder. I
know Trump's not been the very pro Solder, and that's
why this stock has got beating up or over the
last year. It had a fifty two week low of
one forty two, but ran up all the way to
a two seventy one, two seventy six all time high,
and it's all the way back down to a one
sixty eight. The reason I like this company and where
we got it in the first time was because they're

(01:33:13):
sol They're integrated here in the United States, so they
aren't impacted by the tariffs of innert national panels being
imported here to us. They make them here so they
don't get those tariffs.

Speaker 4 (01:33:24):
And they make them set themselves or one hundred percent
vertically integrated. They're responsible for every single input that they
put into those solar panels that you put on your house.

Speaker 2 (01:33:33):
Potentially you don't know everything about this company, but no,
but yeah, don't use absolutes like that in anything in
this world in finance. But the first Solar is very
attractive because of the fact that it's below twenty times
price to earnings. It's not as expensive as it was
when it hit that all time high, and we were
talking about it, Dave solar panels. As much as people

(01:33:54):
don't like them, they're not gonna just stop using them
all of a sudden.

Speaker 3 (01:33:57):
No. I think the higher interest rates to make the
economics of that more difficult to justify, right, Oh yeah,
when you're sitting in a living room of a high
that's gonna that makes it a little bit more of
a difficult sale for sure. And it's clearly slowed their
business down, which makes all.

Speaker 2 (01:34:13):
That And the reason it went up also in the
first time was the AI you know, we need all
this energy. We're gonna need to use this and you know.

Speaker 3 (01:34:20):
And we'll move inversely to interest rates. So if you
believe interest rates are going to be coming down, like
Trump wants to see, a First Solar might be. It
would be an aggressive place to have some money. The
preferred ETF PFF would be a conservative place to have money.
Get six and a half percent on a group of
preferred stocks, and if interest rates come down, you're gonna

(01:34:40):
make a little bit of money. Not gonna get rich,
but you might be able to make five or ten
percent off of it. But First Solar would be an
aggressive way. I could see First Solar if interest rates
started to move over. Yeah, from one to sixty up
to two.

Speaker 2 (01:34:54):
On First Solar. There's only point seven too. It's not
a super volatile play.

Speaker 4 (01:34:58):
That's how to come down, Phil, I would have lost
that bad. It's hard to have come down since that's
not how well atilty works.

Speaker 3 (01:35:05):
Anyway, we're winding down our Super Bowl Sunday edition of
The Money Matter Show. A little bit later today you
can go watch watch the Super Bowl. Hope your team wins,
and it should be a good game. And it's the
last football game of the year, which means that for me, unofficially,
tomorrow will be a national day of morning.

Speaker 2 (01:35:27):
Yeah. I agree with you.

Speaker 3 (01:35:28):
I think that, and we should get a tough day.

Speaker 2 (01:35:30):
Actually, yeah, it's hard to be happy, healthy, profitable. The
day after there, he goes, but.

Speaker 3 (01:35:35):
You gave it away. We want to be happy, we
all want to be healthy. But at the end of
the day, what Greenberg Financial is trying to be is profitable.

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