Economic Insights: Local Impacts, Businesses, and March Madness

On today’s program, we speak with Mark Melnik of the Donahue Institute at UMass Amherst about the state of our economy. We also talk with the executive editor of the Boston Business Journal Doug Banks about federal cuts, impacting healthcare and education in the state. Janelle Nanos of The Boston Globe talks with small business owners about the uncertainty in the local economy. Mike Marshall of Marshall Wealth Management explains how to navigate retirement planning in this economic environment and finally Skip Perham of Suffolk University Sawyer school of business examines  the dollars behind the NCAA and March Madness.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is the New England Business Report with Joe Shortsleeve
and Kim Carrigan, a weekly roundup and discussion of the
top business news impacting our New England economy.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
And Good Morning.

Speaker 3 (00:10):
Good Sunday morning, March the twenty third, Welcome to the
New England Business Report. Joe short Sleeve here with Kim Carrigan.
Of course, as we all know, it is the first
Sunday in the spring. Yeah, we have the later sunsets,
and of course spring kicked in officially Thursday morning at
five oh one. And no pun intended, Kim Carragan, but

(00:31):
I'm sure that put a spring in your step.

Speaker 4 (00:33):
Well, you just took the words right out of my
mouth before you know me too well, and I was
going to say it as a pun, but.

Speaker 5 (00:39):
You made me do it.

Speaker 6 (00:40):
Well.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Isn't it great?

Speaker 7 (00:42):
Though?

Speaker 5 (00:42):
You know what, it's all uphill from here.

Speaker 4 (00:44):
I mean, you know, I just we get to the
peak and then I feel like we just dropped down.
So it's all good stuff. I like the uphill climb
into the summer, that's for sure.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
Yeah, well it's less than ninety days.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
The summer solstice is June twentieth, ten o'clock at night,
so we're less than ninety days there, so let's you know,
focus on.

Speaker 2 (01:02):
That, right that.

Speaker 3 (01:04):
Okay, So today's program, Kim and I were talking about this,
and what we decided to do is really kind of
focus the whole hour on this economic uncertainty that's coming
out of really primarily the federal government Washington, d C.
The trade wars, the tariffs and all this stuff, and
it's impacting you know, everything from mom and pops, you know,
right up to higher education and healthcare. So we're going

(01:25):
to kind of dice it up today and talk a
lot about people who are impacted by what's going on
in DC. We're gonna start off with Mark Melnick. Now,
he's the director of Economic Policy and Research at the
Donahue Institute at UMass Amherst, and he was quizzed in
an article on the Boston Globe by Larry Edelman about
this whole idea of stagflation in the nineteen nineties, and

(01:45):
I guess stagflation, you know, I had to look it
up myself, but basically, you know, it's a period of
time where prices are going up but there's no economic growth.

Speaker 8 (01:55):
So yes, yeah, yeah, I mean stagflation really back in
the nineties and then of course in the seventies as well,
which had so much to do with the idea that
we had an oil shortage.

Speaker 4 (02:08):
A lot of people say, we're not really quite at
stagnation yet, right, correct. You know, again, that's all part
of this chaos. It's part of this uncertainty. Nobody really knows.
Wouldn't it be great if you just put a label
on it, you know, But we so far we cannot.

Speaker 3 (02:21):
We're not there yet, and we hope we don't get there.
So we'll be talking about that then. Also, Doug Banks,
executive editor of the Boston Business Journal, is going to
be along and more on this topic. He's going to
talk a little bit about Medicaid cuts and how that
would impact the Massachusetts healthcare Also an education story about
the dependence on international students putting Massachusetts colleges at risk. Yeah,

(02:47):
because I mean, if you're an international student at this
point and you look at what's going on, you know,
you're thinking, do I really want to go there?

Speaker 4 (02:54):
Well, and you know, I didn't realize that Massachusetts is
among the top five five states that has the most
international students. I think we're number four. You know, we
really depend on international students, Northeastern being the school that
depends on the most right. So an interesting story, and
we'll talk with Doug Banks a little bit more about that.

(03:15):
Coming up in the second half of the hour. Boston
Globe Business reporter Janelle Nanos is going to be our guest.
She's going to talk to us about the effects of
this economic uncertainty on businesses across the region. So many
preparing for what could be a recession on the horizon,
you know, and yet again it comes back down to
this whole nobody knows exactly what's happening, and nobody knows

(03:39):
how to label it.

Speaker 3 (03:40):
Great say, when the President, when he's asked about it,
says yeah maybe not not yeah, maybe, but he says
we'll see. You know, there's no guarantees at this point.

Speaker 4 (03:47):
Absolutely, then chaotic times certainly can wreak havoc on individuals
who are close to retirement or who are in retirement.
So we're going to get some advice from Mike Marshall
of Marshall Health Management. And then finally we're going to
end on a little lighter note. It is March madness time. Yes, Joe,

(04:08):
that may not be a light note for people who
have bet big and their brackets are already out of
the water. Sunday, Yeah, spring fever, and of course the
tournament is here. You know what, I saw a recent
survey that showed that the US economy stands to lose
approximately twenty billion with a B in lost productivity over

(04:28):
these two weeks.

Speaker 3 (04:29):
I always wonder how they come up with that number.
I mean, you know where does that number come from?
You know, they calling up some guy's desk and say
I just cost the company one hundred grand to day.

Speaker 2 (04:37):
I mean, I don't know where they got that number.

Speaker 5 (04:39):
I just really didn't log on today.

Speaker 4 (04:41):
A university skipperm is going to be our guest in
just a short time, so a lot of fun. That's
always a great way to end a little bit about
the business of sports.

Speaker 3 (04:51):
Right, and we can also get an update on our
old pal Charlie Baker sitting there at the helm of
the NCAA.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
This this is his time of year to crow.

Speaker 5 (04:58):
You bet well.

Speaker 4 (05:00):
We mentioned we want to talk about these economic uncertain times,
and our next guest has been studying this very closely.

Speaker 5 (05:07):
Doctor Mark Melnik.

Speaker 4 (05:08):
He is the director of the Economic and Public Policy
Research Group at the UMAs Donahue Institute. Great to have
you with us, doctor, Thanks so much for joining us
this morning. Recently, absolutely recently, I read a quote from
you saying that we are in some pretty unique economic waters.

Speaker 5 (05:28):
Talk to us about what you mean.

Speaker 9 (05:32):
Sure, yeah, so, And this was probably in the Globe
a couple of days ago, where I said, there's really
no historical analog for what we're experiencing right now. I mean,
you know, the shift in policy priorities of the Trump
administration is demonstrating so far. You know, is one dramatic

(05:54):
relative or previous administrations it's been, but then there's also
a certain level of erraticness that's kind of baked into
the way of these policies are being implemented. So you know,
markets respond to uncertainty by being much more conservative and
kind of you know, hunkering down to some extent, and

(06:16):
we're seeing that right now with this kind of you know,
rickshawing with UH, with the tariff policies and how these
things come up or UH, you know, stopping or temporarily
stopping would have been traditionally significant sources of revenue like
around funding for NIH or n SF. These are dramatic

(06:39):
departures from historical analog So when people ask me it's like, well,
you know, what's the outlook for the economy, It's like, well,
it's tough to project when you're like, well, what is
going to happen with the tariffs, what is going to
happen with nih what is going to happen with immigration?
And so much of this is so uncertain right now

(07:00):
that it's it's it's you're seeing the markets responding kind
because there has been this, you know, as you said,
as I'm sure your listeners have seeing it, you know,
sell offs in the stock market and this kind of
thing that you know, it's really really created a really
unsettled period right now.

Speaker 3 (07:18):
In the econ talking with Mark Malnik of the Donna
Hue Institute there at the UMass Amherst. The Global article
you referred to was written by Larry Edelman. We know
Larry well, and the headline had to do with stagflation,
a word we've learned of the nineteen seventies. Maybe maybe
you could I know we're not there yet, we are
not in stagflation right yet, but but maybe you could
talk to us about what that means, what what's the

(07:41):
likelihood of that coming and how much, what kind of
levels of the concern should we have?

Speaker 9 (07:47):
Sure, right, So stagflation, you know, in some ways predates
me as a human, as I was born in the
late seventies. But you know what ends up in a
condition like stagflay, what ends up happening is you simultaneously
experience increases in prices, so the inflation, while while also

(08:11):
having stagnant economic growth. So we've been when we are
experiencing the most recent inflationary period during the during the
Biden administration. Some of the things that we're driving that
inflation was pent up demand from COVID and some of
the injection that we saw through stimulus from the government.

(08:33):
So there was a lot of money to be spent
and people were spending it, and this was increasing the
cost of good But part of this was the fact
that the economy was performing well. In a scenario like stagflation,
what you're seeing is that while inflation, while there are
inflationary pressures in the economy, the economy is not growing

(08:55):
at the same time. So it's really kind of cuts
in both directions and the worst of both worlds where
you're seeing increased prices but really slow economic demand. Some
of the underpinnings that we're experiencing right now in this
economy signal towards stagflation. Now whether or not that actually

(09:15):
comes to pass is unknown, but some of the policies
that the Trump administration is seeking have inflationary pressure is
baked into them. So when you have something like tariffs
on good that will increase the cost of goods, you know,
for all kinds of different things. And we know in

(09:38):
a large global economy there's a lot of you know,
pieces of parts that go back and forth across borders.
So this is a place where pressure will fall in
the consumers eventually to pay the entire prices. But also
at the same time, with the instability in the broader marketplace,
we're seeing slowed economic growth. And there are a few

(09:59):
facts in that. Some of that is the instability that
I've mentioned already, where you know, markets are responding through
you know, sell offs or you know, maybe decide deciding
not to hire folks because they're worried about like, well,
what's the next several months going to look like. But
there are other labor market constraints as well that inhibit
economic growth. Or an aging country with baby boomers and

(10:22):
older gen xers reaching retirement ages. So there are some
natural limits to economic growth just through the labor market alone.
And if you were to restrict immigration in any significant way,
which has been an important part of labor force growth
nationally and particularly in a place like Massachusetts eighty percent

(10:43):
of our labor force growth since nineteen nineties, then because
of immigrant labor, that's also going to slow the ability
for economic growth. Right, So, doctor.

Speaker 4 (10:51):
Melick, let me let me stop you right there if
I could for a second and just ask you, because
you've just brought it up. Let's say, can we can
we talk about the economy here in Massachusetts when you
compare that to the rest of the nation.

Speaker 5 (11:03):
Tell me how it compares.

Speaker 9 (11:05):
It's an interesting mix for Massachusetts. You know, through most
of recent history, the Massachusetts' economy has performed well relative
to the US. We have a strong mix of knowledge
based industries. Things like life sciences, high tech, and meds
have always been important for US. So Massachusetts economy has

(11:27):
tended to do well compared to the US and has
been more resilient during economic downturns. We have the highest
per capita income in the nation. For example, the most
well educated workforce in the country. So these are all
things that you know, we have a really strong fundamentals
as it relates to the US economy. Right now, however,

(11:50):
the Massachuset's unemployment raised a little bit elevated relative to
the US and has been ticking up. The US is
at an unemployment rate of about four percent, massachuse this
is at four point two percent, So this is still
by most economic standards, pretty low unemployment. But over the
last year we've seen unemployment rise about a percentage point,

(12:11):
which is obviously concerning bigger picture though for Massachusetts, we
are an aging state. We're one of the older states
in the country, and we've relied heavily for as I
mentioned before the last couple of decades on form born
labor in growing our workforce and our immigrant workforce has

(12:35):
an interesting scale mix in the state because you know,
there is the kind of stereotype of maybe somebody cleaning
offices or working in a hotels and lower skill labor,
and this is true, but we also have a very
well educated, high skilled immigrant workforce in the state as well.
In fact, the percentage of form born residents in Massachusetts

(12:55):
with a graduate degree is actually higher than the native born.
So we have a lot of folks who come here
to go to colleges and universities, they stay to work
in our knowledge based sectors. So that's an important part
of our labor force growth story. And so that's one
part big picture that I have a lot of concern
about what the future is for Massachusetts, especially with any

(13:17):
restrict significant restrictions on immigration. The other thing I have
a lot of concern about is federal funding dollars and
what ultimately happens with NIH. So we have the highest
per capita, we're the highest per capita recipient in NIH
funding in the nation. Massachusetts receives about, you know, annually

(13:39):
somewhere between three and four billion dollars in federal research
funding that goes to our hospitals, in our universities. It's
an important driver both directly in our economy, you know,
which is funding scientific research, but is also important for
spinning off entrepreneurship and innovation you know, in things like

(14:00):
life sciences. So you know, big picture, So like typically
i'd say, well, the fundamentals and Massachusetts are strong. We
compare well to the US on a number of things,
but there are some policy decisions that that the Trump
administration can make that would specifically harm Massachusetts or harm
Massachusetts more than other states. And you know my intenta

(14:22):
is way up on those issues.

Speaker 4 (14:24):
Doctor, We're gonna have to leave it right there. Great information,
Doctor Mark Melnick, We thank you so much. Coming up,
we're going to continue this conversation about the uncertain economy
outlook and chat a little bit more about federal spending
cuts in the state.

Speaker 5 (14:36):
This is the New England Business Report.

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You are listening to the New England Business Report on
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Speaker 2 (17:00):
And welcome back to the New England Business Report.

Speaker 3 (17:02):
And as promised, we've been spending this whole hour really
talking about economic uncertainty and how these threats of tariffs
and trade issues are impacting all sorts of businesses and
of course the federal cuts coming out of Washington, d C.
They seem to be impacting Massachusetts disproportionately. We have Doug

(17:23):
Banks with us this morning. He's, of course, the executive
editor of the Boston Business Journal. Doug's reporters have been busy, busy,
busy busy, and Doug, one thing you've been focusing on
is this whole impact that international students and the importance
of international students to Massachusetts colleges and the headline on
the BBJA, a story written by Grant Welker, dependence on

(17:43):
international students puts Massachusetts colleges at risk.

Speaker 2 (17:47):
Tell us what's going on?

Speaker 1 (17:48):
Right?

Speaker 13 (17:48):
Thanks Joe and Kim for having me. If everybody knows
that Boston is home to some of the world's most
prestigious colleges in the universities, right, I mean Tea Harvard,
But you know some of the other colleges here who
are also renowned an important Northeastern and Boston University, for example,

(18:09):
they have huge numbers of students that are coming from
international locations. In fact, more than twenty one thousand students
at Northeastern come from overseas. That's the second highest rate
of international students at any college in the nation. Another
thirteen thousand go to Boston University. And if you look
at the numbers, Massachusetts is I think fourth in the

(18:31):
country for the total number of international students. But on
a per capita basis, because our population is smaller than
say California and New York or Texas, we're probably number one.
In Boston in particular, probably number one in the most
international college students per capita of any other region in
the country. So that said, when you have an administration
that has vocalized both a clampdown on diversity. Right, so

(18:57):
there's the idea that colleges are not allowed to talk
about outleads to diverse students. Plus, we already know that
visa processing has flowed to a trickle, and Trump has
said he wants to export any quote unquote foreigners who
are security risks, which could be anything from ties to

(19:18):
China to funding from you know, countries that the administration
is not working with. We have, you know, universities have
a real uphill battle in attracting students.

Speaker 4 (19:31):
You know, Doug, I think it's important for people to
understand that not only you know, I think a lot
of people look at this and they're trying to get
their kids into college, and they think, well, these kids
from overseas are coming over and taking a spot for
my son or my daughter. But these students mean a
lot to our economy. I know, you guys have said
that it's estimated that they bring about four billion dollars

(19:52):
a year into Massachusetts and most of these kids play
full boat.

Speaker 7 (19:56):
Yeah.

Speaker 13 (19:57):
Yeah, that's a that's a really good point. And it's
also imporgn for people to to realize that we're not
talking about undergraduate students predominantly here. At MIT, for example,
only twelve percent of undergraduates are foreign born compared to
forty percent of the graduate program. So most of the
international students that are coming here are coming to the
major universities that are coming for doctoral work. They're coming

(20:17):
from master's degrees, so the you know this, There are,
of course, you know, a lot of undergraduate international students,
but it's really a much smaller percentage. So I don't think,
you know, local families should be too concerned about their
kids not getting in because of the international students coming in.
I think that, you know, the real challenge will be

(20:39):
whether the colleges and universities can hold tuitions lower because
those international students are paying full vote, they're paying full
freight for the for you know, they're not eligible for
the same financial aid that American born students are. So
if you have more students that are paying full tuitions
then local students that can get federal education funding and

(21:02):
you know, pelgrants in those kinds of things, then your
students actually have a better shot at a cheaper education.
So it's a good thing to have international students. And
if the universities can't attract students that can pay full right,
then they're either going to go to the ultra rich
folks that can or they're just going to raise tuitions
as we're already seeing. I mean, we know college some

(21:23):
colleges in town are now paying you know, charging upwards
the ninety thousand dollars. So this is already an issue.
It's only going to get worse.

Speaker 3 (21:29):
All right, talk about Doug Banks, executive editor of the
Boston Business Journal. Okay, so I guess I look at
a lot of the headlines that we've been following lately,
and these are things that we're worried about. We're like, Okay,
we're worried this is going to happen. But when does
the rubber meet the road. When when is the reality
of what you're talking about? When do we really see
the impact?

Speaker 13 (21:48):
Well that's yeah, another great question. You know, the first
Trump term, this issue came up, and most of the
universities in Massachusetts were able to kind of hold their
share of of students. So we have a good reputation here.
We ended up still getting you know, getting a lot
of students COVID of course, you know, made things difficult
in terms of travel. So honestly, it remains to be seen.

(22:11):
The experts that Grant spoke with, you know, have said
that there's actually, you know, it could could be okay.
In fact, also President Trump did say that he's interested
in attracting highly educated immigrants. So he's not against immigrants.
He's mostly you know, he's been saying about criminal immigrants.
But and he has signaled that highly educated immigrants could

(22:32):
be welcome here. The question is whether he follows through
on that, you know, whether or not incentives will continue
to exist. And uh, and we see those totals because
I know there's obviously a chill among the international community
large about coming to the United States right now, just
because of all the rhetoric and all of the headlines
that have been taking place.

Speaker 9 (22:51):
So so it.

Speaker 13 (22:52):
Could all turn out to be okay. But I think
most university recruiters are recognized that they are going to
have to work much much harder to attract those international
students in the you know, in the coming years.

Speaker 5 (23:05):
Yeah, let's say skiers just a bit, if we could.

Speaker 4 (23:08):
Doug, you guys also had a story this week about
Medicaid and how it may be affected and the kind
of impact that that could have in Massachusetts. All of
this due to a number of cuts that are taking
place out of Washington. Talk us through what you guys learned.

Speaker 13 (23:23):
So yeah, Rep. Catherine Clark and the State Secretary of
Help Kate Walsh, held a press conference earlier this past
week because, as we know, the House Republican budget plan
has about eight hundred and eighty billion dollars in cut
and most Democrats think that that's going to be impossible
to do if you don't cut Medicaid. So while the

(23:46):
federal government has said they're not going to cut Medicaid,
the numbers don't really add up. And so two million
people in Massachusetts are on you know, some kind of
Medicaid funded program and it accounts for but like twenty
percent one system of all hospital funding in Massachusetts. So
if they are cuts to Medicaid, hospitals are founding the alarm,

(24:07):
and our legislators are sounding the alarm because this could
be a huge hit to patient populations that are in
you know, some of the poorer communities. What's interesting from
our perspective is that, you know, this also includes people
like gig workers. So you know, someone who drives for
uber or Lyft for example, or an entrepreneur starting their

(24:29):
own business, they don't have employer insurance. They're relying on
MAP health to be able to take that risk. And
so this kind of you know, if you cut medicated funding,
funded coverage, you're hurting entrepreneurs, You're hurting small businesses, You're
hurting the you know, workers in home health care, for example,

(24:49):
that use Medicaid as a supplement to their employer healthcare.
So it's not just you know, I don't have medical
I don't have medical insurance. It's that my employer doesn't
have enough, so I go on MA helps to supplement that.
We see a lot of cleaning services, food prep workers,
a lot of the essential underpinnings of our economy are
reliant on mass health and if there are cuts, it's

(25:11):
going to be a big, big challenge to the mass
healthcare sector, which, like higher ed, is one of those
sectors that drives the Massachusetts economy.

Speaker 3 (25:20):
All right, he's Doug Banks. He's the executive editor of
the Boston Business Journal. Thanks for joining us this Sunday morning.
Looking ahead, We're going to continue this theme about economic uncertainty.
We're to talk with Boston Globe Business reporter Janelle Nanos
about what she found.

Speaker 1 (25:38):
Kim and Joe will explore more business news that impacts
our New England economy when they return.

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You can email us at Any Business Radio at gmail
dot com.

Speaker 3 (27:59):
That's Any Business Radio all one word at gmail dot
com and we'll get your business on the show too.

Speaker 4 (28:12):
Welcome back everyone to the New England Business Report on
this Sunday morning. Coming up in just a couple of minutes,
we're going to be joined by Boston Boston Globe Business
reporter Janelle Nanos. We're going to talk about the uncertainty
and the impact that it has on local businesses, of
course talking about the economy, but first she wrote another
article this week. Joe, and I'm sure that you saw

(28:33):
this COVID change downtown Boston forever. How well, we just
don't mix like we used to. And this was one
of those moments where I just stopped and started thinking
about five years ago this time you and I were
working together at Bloomberg, and it is still amazing to

(28:53):
me five years ago what we went through.

Speaker 3 (28:57):
Yeah, it was really bizarre. I remember to this day,
hey in a parking lot buying remote radio equipment because
we couldn't go to the high rise in downtown Boston anymore.
You weren't allowed to ride the elevators, you know, and
we all of a sudden had to scramble and come
up with a plan. And well, I don't know, I
spent close to the next two years broadcasting from home.

Speaker 5 (29:17):
Yes, we all did.

Speaker 4 (29:18):
And it was very, very strange. I stop and I
think about the idea that when we went to the
grocery store, we had to be let in, and do
you remember we had to go we had to follow
the arrows. And I don't know if you remember this,
but what I thought was always so eerie in the
grocery stores is that it's like they turned off the music,
so it was silent in the grocery stores as we

(29:40):
were walking. It was so ominous, and it was just
it was just a crazy time.

Speaker 2 (29:45):
They wouldn't even let people go to the beach. They
were worried about that.

Speaker 3 (29:48):
They were like arresting people who were threatening to arrest
people walking on the beach.

Speaker 4 (29:53):
It was it was do you remember the first outdoor
sport that started again? I remember when they opened golf
right golf clubs, But even at that, you know, you
had to be five holes apart.

Speaker 5 (30:06):
Oh, thank goodness, we are where we are now.

Speaker 3 (30:09):
And as promised, without any sort of further delay, Let's
bring on a general Nanoso, a business reporter with the
Boston Globe and writing some very interesting stories the past
week or so that really caught our attention.

Speaker 2 (30:20):
Janelle.

Speaker 3 (30:21):
You know, we're talking about economic uncertainty this morning, and
your headline, Uh, I guess it is this the chaos
is its own sort of tax. It's uncertainty, amounts business
owners hunkered down and recession risk growth.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
What did you find there?

Speaker 15 (30:38):
Yeah, well, thank you so much for having me on. Guys,
and you're talking about this, and you gu's a really
important topic for a lot of business owners who are
really trying to navigate through the space raight noil and really,
you know, I think any business owner will tell you
that's the thing that they want, that they like least
in business is uncertainty, and that is exactly what they're
dealing with, you know. So it's socially a lot of
folks throughout New England who are operating different types of

(31:02):
and the sort of tried to understand what they were
working through in terms of just not knowing what decisions
they're supposed to make right now. And you know, I've
heard from a lot of industry groups as well. We're
telling me that, you know, their members are trying to
make big decisions. I mean, you sort of still have
to move forward, even just by the gas. But they're
putting things on hops, they're you know, they're not making

(31:23):
deals when it comes to realismate offerings. They're not making
moves in terms of like you know, watching their locations.
They're trying to navigate hiring, and they really don't feel
like they know what they can do right now, you.

Speaker 5 (31:35):
Know, Janelle being on hold.

Speaker 4 (31:37):
I think that's what I've heard more people say in
the last you know, three months than I've ever heard
them say it before. Was there a sector in particular
when you went out there to talk to business owners?
It seems to be affected the most, you.

Speaker 15 (31:50):
Know, I think a lot of folks certainly kind of
the whiplash is they've been feeling. And that that's a
word I got I heard quote it. You know, a
lot of the questions are about parents, like you know,
somebody who is buying cars. For example, I talked to
an auto dealership and they said, you know, it's not
just the cars themselves. With all the pieces of the cars,
you know, the cars themselves. It's a cross borders number

(32:12):
of times, you know, like the idea that they would
have faces kind of tariffs and then not face these
times of tariffs, you know, the sort of push pull
back and forth. Yes no is really you know, just
really unsteadying for business owner who has to decide, you know,
the new model vehicles are going to be on the

(32:32):
lot a few months, and they need to know if
they're going to have them, or if they're going to
cost significantly more, or if they need to kind of
backfill by having lots of these vehicles, and so you
know a lot of the challenges that they're facing are
just they start the sort of start stop, yes, no,
you know, will he won't see that all of the
elements there that really kind of make it feel like

(32:54):
so much paralyzed. The one auto dealer told I talked
to said that, you know, when they're ani in Japan
back in twenty eleven, like who knew what to do
and he could sort of you know, he knew Japanese
vitolmakers would be shut down for many years or for
many months in the wake of that rather and he
could backfill with news vehicles. You know, he can't make

(33:17):
those types of decisions because to tell me of a
very different kind.

Speaker 3 (33:20):
Basically talking about Janelle Nanas oft the Boston Globe, you know, Jenne.
We had a conversation with Doug Banks of the Boston
Business Journal a short time ago, and he was talking
a little bit about the federal money that is perhaps
being held up in DC and the impacts on you know,
healthcare and education in this state. But what you're and
that's sort of like down the road, but you're talking

(33:40):
what you're seeing is is immediate, right. I mean, you
talk to these car dealerships and they're talking about sales,
you know, in the month of March.

Speaker 9 (33:48):
But well, and then you.

Speaker 15 (33:49):
Got folks who are you know, who are small business
owners who are already dealing with inflation. You know, I
supposed to Judy Harold who owns an ice scrimp shops
and you know Central mass and just like look, Eggs
go really doing the high costs for me, and now
I have to think of source jars from my products,
you know, my like cocoa mix, and you know whether
or not I have to find them, you know, state side,

(34:11):
and then you know, pay two or three times the
cost for these things. I mean, every single dollar matters,
smell businesses, and what also matters increasingly is you know, customers.
She deals with a lot of folks who are telling
her we're really right about our social security or you know,
we're we're tightening our pockets right now because food costs
are so high, and so you know, for somebody's on

(34:31):
ice cream, that means maybe you're not going to splurge
just often. And that really puts Judy numbers on the
line too. But she usually has, you know, for an
ice cream shop, she's going to hire Penerfils people for
the summer. She's only so far hired Cree. She doesn't
really know what she's going to do, and so's you've
seen the trust effect happen over and over and over
down and that in and of itself is really kind
of going to stall the economy right where she you know,

(34:54):
and we sees those sort of slowdowns and hiring and
of slow downs and purchasing that is just you know,
syctifiers that we could watch.

Speaker 4 (35:03):
You know, Jene We We also had earlier a doctor
on from the Donahue Institute at UMass and he said,
one of the big issues, of course, is just the
volatility of all of this out of Washington. It doesn't
seem that there's a you know, if we all knew
there was a strict policy, then we would stand by it.
Should each day things seem to be changing. What is

(35:24):
it that the people that you spoke to, these business owners,
what are they looking for? What is going to make
it better for them?

Speaker 15 (35:32):
Just some real clear insight is so, what's ahead? I mean,
you know somebody, somebody who deals with wholesaling grocer. You
know that Peter Knxactive runs a wholesaler out of Chelsea.
You know, I work with the federal government every day,
Like I know all about how you know how things
come in and out.

Speaker 13 (35:50):
Of the country.

Speaker 15 (35:51):
I know how you know make sure my food is
safe like all of these things. He's like, I will
play by your rules if you tell me what the
rules are, but even your cost changing the book is
like want to keep up? And I think you know,
trying to find some way in which you know stimils
are not to explained clearly carefully, that there's a timeline
that people have some sort of plan in place. I mean,

(36:12):
listens and her industry folks with that line of changes
take place with only twos you know, two weeks notice,
a month's notice, and that's spend a lot of times
when you're when you're planning quarterly or when you're.

Speaker 3 (36:23):
Planning Janel Nato says our guest and Jane, we only
have about ninety seconds left, and that's kind of unfair
for me to ask you to do this, But you
wrote another story about Boston, downtown Boston five years after
COVID fascinating.

Speaker 2 (36:36):
What did you find?

Speaker 13 (36:37):
Thank you?

Speaker 15 (36:38):
Well, it's funny. You know what we worked with Northeastern
and who has a really talented group of people that
you fell phone tracking data, and what they've found was
essentially that you know the fact that the city feels
like in some corners, it feels more widly, it feels
like it's come back to life. You know, what's really
interesting is that we are not actually interacting the same

(37:00):
way we used to and so you know, we used
to interact with regard to each other a lot more.
That means interactions between social social economics, different people, so
people different you know, different socio economics backgrounds. We're interacting
more frequently pre COVID and' that's just typically recovered in
some corners of the city. People really tend to stay

(37:22):
home more often. We're seeing that with hybrid work, we're
seeing that with people just not being downtown and up
and so you know the talks and folks who are
trying to change that. You know, how do you rethinks
downtown to get people to come there and make it
feel more likely again?

Speaker 3 (37:37):
Okay, she's Janelle and nat as the Boston Globe and
we appreciate you taking time joining us this morning on
the New England Business Report.

Speaker 4 (37:45):
Well, Joe, let's continue this conversation. You know, these uncertain
times are tough for business owners. We were just talking
about that with Janelle and certainly consumers, but there are
a few groups of people out there who, no doubt
are really on edge at this point, and that's retirees
who are living on ax income or those who are
planning to retire in the very near future. We're joined
by Mike Marshall, President of Marshall Wealth Management.

Speaker 5 (38:07):
Mike, great to have you.

Speaker 4 (38:09):
Let's talk a little bit about some of the key
advice that you're giving to for your retirees and retired
clients right now with these uncertain economic times.

Speaker 16 (38:19):
Well, it's a great question and everyone's got to think
about it, because these tariffs definitely have an impact not
only on the markets and the stock market, but also
on consumer spending. I mean, if you think about it, Kim, Basically,
a tariff is an extra tax, okay, and it's a
trickle down effect. It affects importers of goods and services.

(38:45):
They are the ones that pay the tax to the
exporter of the product. And you know, the United States
traditionally has a huge trade deficit, which means we import
way more product than we export. So that's something that's
been going on for years and years, decades and decades.

(39:05):
The problem I have is that the United States is
the world's largest importer, and if the importer is the
one paying the tariff, then I feel like the United
States is going to be affected by these tariffs, or
the reciprocal tariffs I should say, by these foreign countries China, Canada, Mexico.

(39:26):
They're all going to impose tariffs on us, and since
we import more than anybody else, we will be affected more. Now,
as far as the effect that the announcement of these
tariffs have had on the stock market, you can see
that people are very very nervous about what these tariffs
could mean long term, not only to the market, but

(39:48):
to the economy. So when you think about someone who
is a year from retirement or someone who is just
into retirement, the volatility of the stock market is a
major factor in your quality of life and the longevity
of your lifetime income. So if I'm a year away

(40:08):
from retirement and I've got a million dollar nest egg
in my four oh one k and we have a
correction of twenty twenty five percent, and the next year
and then I retire, well I'm going to retire with
about two hundred thousand less than I would have that
I retired this year. So what we're advising clients to
do is take a look at your retirement date again,

(40:29):
and if it's within three to five years, what we
want you to do is we want you to do
what we call a rebalancing of your accounts, which would
take you out of equities, not entirely, but severely limit
your equity exposure and put you more into principal preservation
or bond type portfolios which would maintain value during a

(40:51):
foalitle market. So that's one of the things we did.
The other thing that we're doing is is we're having
people take a look at their expenses in retirement. You
know a lot of people who are retired, they still
have two vehicles. They might have a vacation home that
they bought twenty five thirty years ago when the kids
were young, and they would utilize it with the kids
and it was a great place to create family memories.

(41:13):
But now the kids have grown, they're gone, they're starting
to have children of their own, and the question is,
do we really need to keep this extra piece of
property that we bought thirty years ago. Do we need
to drive two vehicles? You know, these are the things
that people look deeply at their spending during difficult times,

(41:33):
and that's what's happening right now. People are cutting back
on their spending because they're nervous about what this thing
could look like. If it maintains down for the next
year or so, we could really have a difficult market situation,
certainly a correction of some type. I'm hoping it doesn't
last that long, but it could.

Speaker 3 (41:53):
Talking with Mike Marshall of Martial Wealth Management, Yeah, and
you know, Mike, this comes at a time when they've
been coining that phrase silver tsunami. I mean so many
people are looking to people like yourself for advice on
retirement and for possible retirement. So and now you have
this uncertainty thrown in in your mind. You're saying, well, okay,

(42:14):
protect yourself now. Uh and as opposed to, you know,
kind of ride it out.

Speaker 2 (42:21):
So yeah, don't write.

Speaker 16 (42:24):
Well, the younger people want to ride it out. There's
no question as a matter of fact, for young folks
contributing to their floo on kay, this is nothing but
an opportunity to buy stock at a lower price. But
for those people that are on a fixed income or
about to be on a fixed income, So our clients.

Speaker 17 (42:41):
Are always prepared three to five years before they actually retire.
So we stopped, we start rebalancing the portfolio well in
advance of the date they're going to retire, so that
we don't put them in a position where they're going
to the end of the line with the with the
you know, the volatile portfolio.

Speaker 16 (43:00):
That's not the way to go. The way to go
is to prepare for retirement three to five years in advance. Now,
I mean, if you look at the United States in
terms of the companies that are affected by these tariffs
and the amount of people that work for these companies. So,
I mean, you got automobiles, you know, you Ford and GM, Stalantis,

(43:23):
They're all going to be impacted by this. The largest
importers in the United States, you know, you're talking about Walmart,
you know, they're the largest by a wide margin. And
then you've got Target Home Depot, Low's, and Ashley's Furniture.
Those are the five largest US importers right and the

(43:46):
United States basically they do most of their importing from Canada, Mexico, China,
and Japan. So when you think about the product that
those companies are exporting to the United States States for sale,
the US is the one paying the tariff, which means
that someone's going to pay it. Is it the consumer

(44:06):
they're going to pass it on to, or is it
just you know, is it a dent in their profit margins?
And these are the things that the investors in the
markets are nervous about because the consumer. Think about it,
the consumer, you call it the silver tsunami. As we know,
ten thousand Americans are turning age sixty five in this
country every day for the next fifteen years. So you

(44:28):
want to talk about a tsunami of people needing advice.
It's almost overwhelming. And if you think about the fact
that this US economy that we enjoy is made that
two thirds of it is made up of consumer spending.
The other one third is business spending and government spending.
So the consumer is really the driver of the US economy.

(44:50):
And so that's why you're seeing the markets get nervous
because they know what could be coming if these tariffs
last for a long time time. So it's a scary situation.

Speaker 4 (45:04):
It's certainly an unknown situation, that is for sure. Mike,
Thank you very much. Some really great advice there. And
if this information resonates with you our listeners and you're
looking for some financial advice, contact our friends there at
Marshall Wealth Management.

Speaker 5 (45:17):
You can go to Marshallwealthmanagement dot com.

Speaker 4 (45:21):
Coming up next, the business is Sports.

Speaker 1 (45:28):
You are listening to the New England Business Report on
the Voice of Boston WRKO six 't eighty. Joe and
Kim will be right back.

Speaker 11 (45:37):
Are you a brother or sister of one of Great
Boston's local trade unions and finally thinking about getting ready
to hang up your tools after thirty five years of
working your tailoff. Congratulations, you worked hard to build your
retirement nest egg. But now what Let me help you
break through the nonsense and financial speak so we can
get to the questions that are important to you. As
you know, nothing gets built without a set of plans,

(45:58):
and neither will you a financial future. My name is
Mike Marshall, President and CEO of Marshall Wealth Management and
creator of the Marshall Plan, a comprehensive customized plan that'll
help you answer important questions in all seven key areas.
You don't have to do it alone. There is no
cost or obligation. Call us at eight five seven three
four two ten thirty. That's eight five seven three four

(46:20):
two ten thirty. Will check us out online at Marshallwealth
dot com, Marshall with two els, Marshallwealth dot Com.

Speaker 12 (46:27):
Advisory services offered to Capital Analysts or Lincoln Investment Registered
Investment Advisors. Securities offered through Lincoln Investment Broker Dealer member FINRA, SIPC,
Lincoln Investment dot Com, Marshal Wealth Management and the above
firms are independent and not affiliated.

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Speaker 3 (47:51):
And welcome back to the New England Business Support are
going to close out today's program. Of course, with the
news that's been breaking all week long now having to
do with the ale of the Boston Celtics. And we
also want to talk about March madness right in the NCAA.
But you know, our expert on this is one Skip
Perm Sports Management Program Director, Marketing instructor of Suffolk University

(48:11):
Sawyer School of Business. He's our go to guy in
situations like this. A Skip, Welcome to the program. Why
don't we start with the Celtics. Explain to our listeners
what we've learned there.

Speaker 6 (48:22):
Well, look, it's absolutely huge news. And the news is
the William Chisholm, a native of Georgetown at Dartmouth Grad,
the guy who owns a house on Nantucket, is going
to be the new owner of the Boston Celtics. And
the purchase price is six point one billion dollars and
that's the most anyone has ever paid for a franchise

(48:43):
in North America. So a real studying development. It seems
like this has always been the price that the NBA
hoped the Celtics would fetch for reasons that you know,
maybe we'll talk about in a minute. But I'm well,
this is the number that's always been put out there
I am surprised that they did get the six billion
dollar number.

Speaker 4 (49:01):
To be truthful, bil Chisholm kind of came out of nowhere, right,
he came.

Speaker 6 (49:07):
His name came out a couple of weeks ago when
the final bidders were announced. But yeah, I don't think
his name was out there. I don't know how many
people know much about him in general. His company, Symphony
Technology Group, is based in Menlo Park in California. He's
just not someone that has been on the radar in
terms of, you know, wanting to purchase one of our

(49:29):
local franchises for as long as I've been tracking sports
business topics.

Speaker 3 (49:35):
Skip, you were mentioning before we got on the air
here about the broader impact here on the Red Sox.

Speaker 2 (49:41):
Explain that to us.

Speaker 6 (49:42):
Yeah. Yeah, So the reason why the NBA was hoping
or you know, pushed the Celtics to get six billion
dollars is because next online for the NBA is the
ad franchises, and the one rumored franch it's probably a
certainty at this point is a franchise in Las Vegas,

(50:03):
and that franchise has always been linked to Lebron James.
And generally you have to agree that from an NBA
business standpoint, Lebron wants, he generally gets, and it's probably
good for the league, his partners. He's a limited partner
in the Boston Red Sox. And I've always believed that
Fenway Sports Group was the group that would get the
franchise in Vegas when it launches, and that franchise is

(50:27):
now going to cost a minimum of six point one
billion dollars. Perhaps more so, I think their purchase price
just went up.

Speaker 4 (50:38):
So John Henry and Fellows hold on right, Wow, all right, Well,
it's fascinating news, big news here, certainly in the Boston area,
and we're going to continue to follow that. Of course,
you have the big news happening. It is March madness,
and we've talked to you about this before. I was
saying to Joe off the top of the show that

(50:59):
I was looking at some kind of surveyed that said
that twenty billion dollars in productivity over the next two
weeks could be lost because people are so involved.

Speaker 6 (51:08):
Well, maybe AI can make up for that loss productivity.
I can have to do the work that I'm not going.

Speaker 9 (51:12):
To do today.

Speaker 4 (51:13):
I wish that AI would have filled out my brackets
because they started not going so great.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (51:18):
Well, the funny thing is you can have AI fill
out your Brave brackets. To be honest with you, they
they're already incorporating that type of technology, but it's there.

Speaker 3 (51:26):
Yeah, talk to us about the dollars going on here
with the NCAA and March Madness.

Speaker 6 (51:32):
Yeah, and let me tell you that the reason I
think a reason why the Boston Celtics can get six
point one billion dollars and is in some way and
it's not a direct line, but it is because of
the NCAA March Madness tournament. This, this event signal handedly
change sports business. So the bottom line is for the NCAA,

(51:55):
they taken an estimated one point three billion dollar revenues.
That's ticket sales as well as sponsorships as well as
media rights from this tournament. And that's about ninety percent
of all NCAA revenues that fund really the whole NCAA complex.
It comes out of this tournament. It's a massive amount

(52:16):
of money.

Speaker 4 (52:18):
What about CBS and their deal with with the NCAA.

Speaker 6 (52:22):
Yeah, they're in so they partner with Warner Discovery Sports,
owner of TNT and TBS and True TV. They're sort
of I don't know if they're joint partners, but they're
partners in this, and they're in the first year of
an eight year renewal that will cost them in total
over the eight years eight point eight billion dollars. So
they're paying one point eight billion dollars per year, one

(52:44):
billion dollars per year for the right to carry just
the men's tournament. So it's a big investment on their part,
and they're selling. According to the estimates I see, they've
sold about a billion dollars in revenue attached to the
tournament this year.

Speaker 3 (52:59):
Now, these are the deal that are one Charlie Baker
is cut incorrect.

Speaker 6 (53:03):
Well, now these are deals that we're done before he
came in. So this is actually an extension of a
deal that was originally cut in twenty ten. It was
extended an additional eight years to twenty thirty two. And
one thing to look forward to here is this deal,
which is a huge deal, expires in twenty thirty two.

(53:25):
That's the exact same year that the NCAA's contract with ESPN,
which is attached to the women's tournament, also expires. So
in twenty thirty two, you're going to see the men's
and women's tournament both come up together, and it'll be
interesting to see where that goes. It's a little bit
down the road, but that's where Charlie would be thinking,

(53:45):
I guess if he's still there at twenty thirty two.

Speaker 4 (53:47):
So let's talk a little bit about the women's tournament,
because that's become a much bigger deal than it was,
you know, maybe even three years ago.

Speaker 6 (53:55):
Sure is. Yeah, and the NTA just last year cut
a deal with esp to pay Let's get what the
total number is, one hundred and fifteen million annually for
a whole bunch of championships that the NCAA athletes play,
and then sixty five million of that one point fifteen
is expressly related to the women's tournament, and that's grown

(54:17):
from what it was prior. So the women's tournament has
become a bigger deal. It's people watch it, they're selling advertisements,
and the media is paying more for it than they.

Speaker 2 (54:27):
Ever have talking. Let's skip Perham.

Speaker 3 (54:30):
He's the Sports Management program director there at the Suffolk
University Sawyer School of Business. A lot going on in
the world, obviously on this Sunday morning, we're deep into
March Madness already, let's talk a little bit about sports betting.

Speaker 2 (54:43):
Huh, how much money are we losing? Are winning?

Speaker 6 (54:47):
Well, well, let me tell you what the state of
Massachusetts gained in tax revenue last year. They gained nine
million in tax revenues last year in March and another
eleven million in April. So we're talking twenty million dollars
in tax receipts for the state just Massachusetts last year.
So I think, you know that's that's why they legalized

(55:07):
sports betting to take in this tax revenue. So that
gives you some some perspective on what it means to
us as tax payers. All told, you know, the industry,
the American Gaming Association expects about three point one billion
dollars to be bet on the NCAA tournament. And if
you want to comparison, you know they they projected or

(55:30):
the maybe it's a hard number. One point four billion
was bet on the Super Bowl. So March Madness is
twice what the Super Bowl is. And obviously it helps
that it spread out over three weeks. It's got you know,
sixty plus games that you can bet on.

Speaker 4 (55:45):
Yeah, I know that this is such a big deal
for all of these these betting sites and locations.

Speaker 5 (55:53):
So ad spending, what are we talking about?

Speaker 4 (55:56):
What are people? You know, what's it going to? We know,
you know, it's ridiculous. During the Super Bowl? Are the
are the prices equally as high like this?

Speaker 6 (56:04):
Well here's here's a great number and I just saw
this this week that the highest the reporting is that
ESPN was able to get or you sell, a championship
game spot in the women's tournament. This is the Women's
tournament for one point five million dollars. So that's a
thirty second spot. So if you want to compare that

(56:25):
to the Super Bowl, a thirty second spot at its
highest end this year was about eight million dollars, So
clearly it's not that. But we're talking about women's basketball
getting fifty one point five million for a thirty that's
a hugely impressive number. In terms of the men you know,
CBS and TNT, Warner Discovery. The reporting is that they've

(56:45):
sold out and they've pulled in about a billion dollars
in revenue.

Speaker 3 (56:49):
All right, here's skip im, Goodloe with your brackets there skip.
As we moved through March madness, it's it's really a
really fun time to be in front of a television.

Speaker 4 (56:58):
All right, Joe, well listen, good luck in the tournament.
I hope that your brackets turn out. Okay, yea luck there.

Speaker 5 (57:05):
Yeah exactly. I usually always get blown out in the
first round and I'm like, oh, please take my money now.

Speaker 4 (57:12):
All right, let's look ahead to what's coming up on
the New England Business Report next Sunday. Recently, Boston Magazine
writing an article up the top fifteen places to live
in the Greater Boston area in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 5 (57:24):
And Joe, you noticed that this because.

Speaker 3 (57:28):
I have a selfish interest in I guess my town
of Medfield somehow made it into the top ten.

Speaker 5 (57:35):
I love that. I love that.

Speaker 4 (57:37):
By the way, as I'm looking at it, these may
be great places to live, but they're expensive places to live.

Speaker 2 (57:41):
Oh yeah, margins are all gone.

Speaker 4 (57:44):
The bargains are gone. But we're going to take a
look at that story and a whole lot more coming
up on the New England Business Report next Sunday. Right
here on WRKO, the Voice of Boston AM six 't
eighty