Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Your home for college football Saturdays and the NFL presents
Picking the Loves with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought
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Speaker 2 (00:20):
It's the number one gambling show in America.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Picking the Locks right here on Seattle Sports Leader ninety
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(00:43):
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Speaker 2 (00:59):
Lee. We just are a few.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
Days removed from the second college football Playoff rankings, which
were unveiled Tuesday night on ESPN, and I think much
to my shock and pleasant surprise, and I don't know
about you either.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Let's start right there.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Our Miami Hurricanes were the big winners of the rankings
that just were released, because a week ago it looked
like Miami was way on the outside looking in.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
They were eighteen.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Notre Dame I believe was ten at Notre Dames certainly
still keeping their number nine ranking, but Miami, the committee
put them all the way up to number fifteen if
they went out NC stayed at home this weekend, then
at Virginia Tech and of course the big one at
the end of the year, and the cole Weather at
pitt Miami, according to the quote, experts will be in
(01:58):
a spot to go to the college football playoffs asn't
at large, despite the fact that more than likely won't
make it to the ACC championship game.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (02:11):
So interesting, and the Hurricanes I think were benefited. I
think people went back and there were so many arguments
and so many conversations, you know, on national you know,
broadcasts about how could MIMI be so low? And I
think they looked at it and revisit and realized that
(02:32):
MIMMI had two very close losses against I'm not saying
they're great teams, but quality teams, whereas some of these teams,
you know, lost and it wasn't even close. Boy BYU
fans were upset, But it wasn't just that they lost
on the road. They were blown out. I mean the
score isn't even indicative of how bad they got dominated.
(02:53):
So you know, if you lose a close game, I
think it does matter, especially on the road. Miami law
and overtime to SMU and SMU now all of a sudden,
this is winning like crazy. So yeah, there's an argument
that you can make for almost every team. I think
Miami certainly benefited this week. The team that I don't understand,
I think we both don't understand that soap hi is
(03:16):
Texas and if they lose this week they should one
hundred percent be out. I mean, Texas has two losses
and had to be bottom feeder in Kentucky and Mississippi
State and overtime. Yep, are you kidding me?
Speaker 2 (03:29):
Yep?
Speaker 3 (03:30):
I know, Lee, you couldn't have you took the words
right out of my mouth. I mean, and Lee, not
only did they have to beat them in overtime, they
gave up nearly forty points to Mississippi State.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Four they give up thirty eight points to.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Mississippi State, and if it wasn't for a dumb ass
decision by Mark Stoops in the Kentucky game when Kentucky
converted and the first play of overtime from the line
of scrimmage, they got all the way down.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
To the Texas two yard line. And then after that they.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
Two not one, not two, not three, but four predictable
runs up the middle. They couldn't get a touchdown, Texas
stopped them. Then they kicked a field goal and one.
So they were lucky to get by both of those games.
So they're gonna go on the road to Georgia between
the hedges on Saturday. Now, that could be a tough game.
(04:20):
I'm sure Sark's gonna devise a game plan. But the
one thing that I will say that scares me a
little bit this game because I want Georgia just to
get rid of Texas.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
That Georgia doesn't have that defense that.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
They had for three and four years ago when they
won back to back national titles. Nakobe Dean, Jalen Carter,
Jordan Davis, those guys aren't walking through that door. And
if they do lead, they're gonna be wearing Philadelphia Eagles jerseys.
Their eligibility is gone, So it concerns me a little.
But apparently corner rumors out there, Lee, guess who who's
(04:56):
at the Dogs practice at the Butt Smears Center on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Billy Napier, So.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
Kirby Smart is contact because remember what did Florida do
about a month or four to six weeks ago? They
beat Texas handily. Since then, Florida, Billy Napier got fired
and now they're starting quarterback got benched in DJ Lagway,
So a lots happened since that game where they completely
dominated Texas.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
Yeah, and I mean, but then again, come on, Billy Napier,
what is he going to help him with, you know,
how to mess things up? So well, no, but yeah
he might.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
Be able to Yeah, I hear you, that's funny, but
he might be able to do some things. So a
couple other teams here that to look out for that
are in a really interesting position. Let's start with a
blue blood. The University of Southern California USC right now
is in a spot now, Lee, they've got they've got
(05:57):
to win out, but there are two spots behind Miami.
They've already beaten Michigan. They lost to Illinois, they lost
a Notre Dame. But next weekend, excuse me, in two
weeks now, by the way, my dates are mixed up.
A weekend from this Saturday, they go to Eugene. If
(06:18):
they win that game, USC is going to be on
the inside and Oregon could be on the outside.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Yep. Really interesting. So people just I think, right right
as soon as the last week's game was played, figured
that out, and you know, got some things working for him.
You know, Iowa all of a sudden they're out, not
like they're going to be up. They got to travel
across country. The Oregon Ducks got to get some healthy receivers.
By the end of the game. Last year, fourth quarter
(06:47):
they were without the top four receivers. So, you know,
this USA S team is different than most teams. A
lot of people have a label just offense. Look at
their defense. If you watch them, you're gonna be pretty impressed.
Taking play some defense too. This year.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Yeah, my AVA has actually had a really good season.
Now I can see why that Relincoln Riley chose him
over Miller Moss, who transferred to Louisville. All right, we
will get coming up. Of course, next segment will be
our blowouts, and then of course the final segment as
we end every show every week, are what you wait
for the locks. I was three and four last week,
(07:27):
could have been three three and one depending on where
you got the Miami line versus Syracuse. Some ad at
twenty eight. If he had at twenty eight, I was
three three and one. Lee was three three and one
last week. But we will try to do and hopefully
do better this week. So Lee, you go ahead and
lead us off for the underdog segment that we start
every single week, and yours start with the game that
(07:52):
I was talking about between the hedges Texas at Georgia
and the Turkeys. I mean, the Horns are getting six
maybe six and a half depending where you get your
action on the road against Gunner Stockton, Kirby Smart and
the Dogs.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
So I love rematch games where the team that lost
the year before came in over confident, and that was
Texas last year. No one gave Georgia a chance and
their opponent was given no chance in Georgia and dominated
the game from probably the second series on. Now the
Longhorns are the desperate team and given little chance of
(08:32):
pulling off the upset. Georgia has a ninety one point
sixty six percent chance of making the college football playoffs,
so it's not like this is a must win game.
They'd like to win, but you know it's not a
must win Georgia quarterback here, Gunner Stockton is hitting his
stride under Mike Bobo's play calling. They've improved each week,
(08:53):
it seems like, but always a butt. Texas has two
weeks to repair huge advantage in college foot You can
pour our rotates and find certain types of blitzes. They
can bother quarterbacks and certain coverages here. So I think
they're going to show stocks and some looks that are
going to give them problems, and all of a sudden,
arch Manning's not the problem anymore. I mean, he looked
(09:15):
horrible to start the year. I thought maybe he was
going to be replaced, but he's found his footing here
start pretty good play caller here. So I think the
extra week is huge for them. And like I said,
they got that chip on their shoulder here. No one's
given them a shot here. I'm gonna say they pull
the upset, wrong team favorite mix, just straight up thirty
(09:37):
one to twenty eight.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Okay, all right, you're going with the Longhorns on this one. Okay,
we'll see that there's a lot of sharp money coming
in on Texas, so it'll be interesting to see what
happens there. All Right, the aforementioned Notre Dame finding irish
In and Pitt we were talking about before the show.
(09:59):
You saw the pat our doozy press conference. Well, we're
not worried about Notre Dame. We want to win our
final two ACC games against Georgia Tech and Miami. I
don't believe that for a minute. If you believe that
I got swamp Land in Nebraska to sell you, we're
gonna go through these quickly. I'm just gonna go with
the pit Panthers at home. I don't think they win
the game. You give me twelve and a half points
(10:20):
at home versus this Notre Dame team, I'm gonna take Pitt.
Next one, I'm gonna go to the NFL, the big
one that the entire epicenter of the NFL universe will
be centered around seven to two Seattle Seahawks at Sofi
Stadium against the seven to two LA Rams, both teams
two of the top five ranked defenses in the NFL.
(10:43):
Rams number two in points per game allowed. Seahawks are
just a couple spots behind them, but remember they got
off to huge leads and their defense didn't even give
up fourteen points actually on Sunday against the Cardinals. Give
me the under on this game. I think it's gonna
be a rock fight. If it's a rock fight, it's
gonna favor See. I'm going to go under on the
underdog segment under forty eight and a half points Seahawks Rams.
(11:06):
What's your underdog segment? Lee?
Speaker 2 (11:07):
Real quick?
Speaker 4 (11:09):
Yeah, I'm going to finish up here with the Denver
Broncos and everyone's writing them off here playing Kansas City,
but the games at home. Patrick's Hirst hanging number two
could be back and that would be huge for them.
The host is eaten two hearing off a mini buy.
Denver meant to open up this three and a half
(11:32):
game lead in the AFC West over the Mighty Mahomes
team here with the Chargers in between them, and dropped
the Chiefs here to five hundred and I just think
defense is still really, really good and if they can
put some pressure on Mahomes, they got a chance. And
what is Kansas City like when Kansas City is a defense.
(11:56):
They love to have that quarterback sit in the Patrick
bo Nicks not gonna sit in the pocket here in
this game. Hasn't looked great here, But you got to
think with those extra couple of days and they're game planning,
they're gonna be able to come up with some different
schemes and some plays here that are gonna give Kansas
City some problems here. So Broncos or one of these
(12:19):
teams that play really good defense, excellent special teams, and
these things know each other inside and out. They've been
playing each other for years. So I think Denver right
now might have the best defense in the NFL. So,
you know, getting points at home plus four give me
the points here another room team favored. I like Denver
(12:41):
here straight up twenty to seventeen.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
All right, Yeah, Broncos.
Speaker 3 (12:45):
I believe they've won seven stray and I think they
won four or five one score games. I mean, they
are just they're on the right side of everything, and
they're doing it now without the reigning NFL defensive player
of the Year, Patrick's Artan the second So they're doing great.
Just to recap here and in this underdog segment, Lee
gave out the Texas Longhorns plus six maybe six and
(13:07):
a half in the Denver Broncos as a home dog,
but you also say you kind of wouldn't mind it
on the money line. You think they might win on
the field as well, in addition to getting the four
points which you're giving out to the listeners.
Speaker 4 (13:21):
Absolutely. Yeah. I mean with a lot of these underdogs,
I would put two thirds of your wager even seventy
five percent and then sprinkle the rest with the money line.
So you know, there's no great teams this year in
college football. In the NFL, we've seen upset after upset.
I mean, look at last week Dolphins, Dolphins plus nine
(13:41):
and a half at home, not only one they dominated.
So if you're in a survivor league, it has been
really tough into a lot of people that got knocked
out last week going with Buffalo. So these are professional
players in college you know, all these guys even on
the Northwesterns and teams like that, these are kids that
are three star players. You know, they play at a
(14:02):
high level. They played against other really good players. These
teams they get transfers in, and these transfers they have
a chip on their shoulder, and they probably you know,
practiced against some really good players on teams they came from,
so can't discount that. That's why I love playing money
lines here in college football in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (14:22):
All right.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
I also want to mention one thing too about that
Pittsburgh Notre Dame game, and something I'd be remiss if
I did not bring this up.
Speaker 2 (14:31):
Notre Dame this year.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
Actually they you know, depending on where you got it,
they did cover big on the road against Arkansas when
they were there. They were a major, they were a
five and a half point favorite, and they won fifty
six to thirteen. But if you look at the other games,
the Notre Dame Miami game, that was a push. You
might have even one if you got Notre Dame plus three,
but you take that away, and then you look at
(14:55):
Notre Dame at Boston College. They didn't come close to
covering that one. So Notre Dame not what is good
on the road when they're facing a legitimate opponent than
they are, and Boston Collegs isn't even legitimate. Arkansas they
took care of, so I feel very strong. Here's another
thing about Notre Dame this year. Good teams win great
teams cover they're four and five ATS. How about Pitt, Pitt?
(15:19):
They are seven? Excuse me Pitt right now? Notre Dame
is four and five ATS Pit is six and two
against the number this year. So something to kind of
keep an eye on when you're making the picks. All right,
picking the locks. We will get to the blowouts coming
up next right here on Picking the Locks MJ. Lee
Sterling on Sports Radio ninety three to three kjr FM.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Are you looking for a lock this weekend? You've come
to the right place. Now back to Picking the Locks
with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought to you by
the fan Duel Sports Book ATS to Qualmish clear Water
Casino Resort. On Sports Radio ninety three point three kjr FM.
Speaker 3 (15:57):
It's Picking Locks here on Sports Radio nine three kjr FM,
Seattle Sports Leader MJ from MJ in the midday every
day ten am the one pm along with Lee Sterling
from Paramount Sports dot Com. We've been this show's been
going strong since the beginning of the football season. We
appreciate all of you out there listening, and don't forget
(16:20):
if you miss this live one, which is heard every
Friday night local time here in Seattle, Pacific time at seven.
Speaker 2 (16:28):
O'clock ten o'clock on the East coast.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
You can just go to wherever you find podcasts for
Picking the Locks. It's brought to you by Fan Duel
Sportsbook Suquamish Clearwater Casino Resort. So the second segment of
every show we will do blowouts. But one thing we
want to bring up right now we're past the halfway
point in the NFL season is the MVP race. And
(16:53):
one guy Lee in particular. There's there's a lot of
good quarterbacks. I mean, Matthew Stafford is having an unbelievable sea,
he's in Drake May, obviously, the usual suspect himself, Patrick Mahomes.
But one guy in particular, to you, Lee stands out
above all. But he's not playing the most glorified position
(17:14):
in all of sports, quarterback for an NFL team. And
that guy's name is Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 4 (17:22):
Yeah. And the reason I like him so much he's
he's I think he's made his team from a below
average team and to a contender. And you know they've
only lost two games. I think because of him. He
gained over eleven hundred yards and in this day and age,
you know, if you gained four and a half five yards,
it's considered good. He's averaging six yards per carry, fifteen touchdowns.
(17:44):
Why does it always have to be you know, a
quarterback that wins this and who knows, this might be
the year that everything changes and even someone who was
hot early might come back like Baker Mayfield. You know,
Sam Darnold looking great. You know, you know Matthew Stafford
looking great. But those teams are going to probably beat
up on each other. They've got to play each other,
(18:07):
and they have tough schedules, so they could cancel each
other out. Then you know, you got someone like Patrick Mahomes.
You know he loses to Denver this weekend, it's going
to hurt his chances. And you know they're sitting at
five hundred, so you know, take a look at some
of these underdogs at some cheap prices. Don't just bet favorites.
You bet favorites and you know, at you know, plus
(18:28):
three hundred, if they don't come in, you know, you're
sitting with your money held up for like two and
a half three months, and and you lose the bet,
and there's probably some better value somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
Yeah, listen, just like the Heisman Trophy, who's the only
non quarterback? I believe in the last there's two of
them that the non quarterback who won the Heisman Trophy
in the last twenty years. DeVante Smith receiver with Alabama
(19:03):
and Derrick Henry running back Alabama. Oh, mark Ingram did too,
mark Ingram, so all Alabama guys, you know that one,
but that were non qbs. But other than that, it's
the best QB in America. That's the Heisman Trophy. And
it seems that the NFL voters do the same thing
as well. And but you know, listen, Jonathan Taylor is
(19:26):
having an unbelievable season. If he continues to do this,
and if you can get near two thousand yards, one
of the guys, I'm surprised, but you know it's a
QB award. But no one's talking about you can get
great value at right now, Jackson Smith.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
And Jigba he is on.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
He's got over a thousand yards already through nine games.
If he gets to that two thousand yard receiving mark,
then you're talking about him breaking the all time singles
season receiving yards mark of Calvin Johnson in twenty twenty five,
twenty twelve. Excuse me, Megatron, why is JS and not
(20:02):
getting lovely?
Speaker 2 (20:03):
How about that? Right?
Speaker 4 (20:04):
Yeah, I agree, I agree with you one hundred percent there, Mark,
So he's been almost unguardable. Yes, it's not like justin
jeff Jefferson is doing anything and and chases you know,
he's he's he's His quarterback situation hasn't been great week
to week, and he's been good, but not great. So
I think people are looking, you know, looking for someone
to take hold and run away with it. So you know,
(20:28):
maybe we identify a running back and receiver that if
they continue on this run, might have a chance. And
you know, if we hit on it, Mark, then you know,
we can go over you know, if not the Christmas break,
we can go over Spring break, we can head on
over to the Bahamas and take a vacation. And if
we if we bet enough of it, you know, we
(20:48):
get enough that we might own part of the island.
Oh we keep keep pointing like we're doing.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Yeah, well I'm gonna try.
Speaker 3 (20:54):
I'm gonna be down in Miami at the end of
the year, beginning of the end of this year, so
I want to be definitely hitting Joe's stone Crab. I'm
not going into Miami without hitting Joe stone Crab, which
you and your better half, Kim, just enjoyed a little
over a week ago. So I got to hit Dad.
Those stone crabs there are the best, all right. So
let's now we'll get to the blowouts and I'm gonna
(21:16):
start it off. And this team struggle last week, but
they are absolutely dominant on both sides of the ball,
and they want to put up style numbers, not because
they're worried about, you know, not getting a buy in
the first round as one of the top four ranked teams,
because this coach wants his player to win the Heisman Trophy.
(21:39):
And we talked about the Heisman Trophy being a quarterback award. Well,
probably the odds on favorite right now would be Fernando
Mendoza at Indiana, and he had the Heisman moment.
Speaker 2 (21:50):
They were on the brink.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
Of losing to an absolute lifeless loser Penn State team,
and Fernando Mendoza led them down the fields with hardly
any time left through an unbelievable pass and even a
better catch to pull.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Victory from the jaws of defeat.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
And now I think Kurt Signetti wants his quarterback, who
transferred from cal and his brother is already there. His
brother was the one who recruited him to IU. He
wants him to win the Heisman Trophy, and what better
way than do it this weekend at home versus a
lowly Wisconsin team who is coming off an upset.
Speaker 2 (22:34):
I know it hurts to say that up here in.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
Washington of the Huskies last weekend at Camp Randall, but
they're on the road and I look at this weekend
and it's a twenty nine and a half point line.
But as you know, Lee, last week the Miami Hurricanes line.
I never usually touched that. I always you know, I'd
never touched Miami games. But I just had a feeling
that Miami was going to get over thirty seven and
a half points at home last week versus Syracuse. Well,
(22:58):
I feel the same way out Indiana, and ironically enough,
the number is the same, thirty seven and a half points.
I don't care. I think Kurt Signetti he's going to
pour it on. He wants his quarterback, the guy that
he coached that has put Indiana right now is one
of the top teams in the country, undefeated, the team
total is thirty seven and a half. Take the Hoosiers.
(23:23):
Bet it now. Indiana team total over. Bet it now,
wait for it, wait for it. Thank me later in
cash that ticket. Hoosiers team total over thirty seven and
a half. Lee, you got one that you think is
going to be a blowout down at the home of
(23:45):
the twelfth man college station there with Texas A and
M and South Carolina.
Speaker 4 (23:54):
All right, so South Carolina has a quarterback. Then a
lot of people are talking about Lenora Seller and the
rumor this week is that Miami wants them, and the
rumor is that he might be headed down to the
three to zero five. And I think he's good, but
not great. I mean, last year completed passes for over
(24:16):
sixty five percent. This year just sixty one percent. That's down. Also,
only seven touchdown passes the entire this year year. This
year he's only rushed. People think of him as this
great dual threat quarterback. Yeah, he's a nice runner, but
only one hundred and fifty eight rushing yards and three touchdowns.
So part of the reason he's had problems this year
(24:39):
is the offensive line is offensive. They are that bad.
I've never seen so many lookout blocks by an offensive line,
and their six losses, they're averaging just thirteen point three
points per game. Defense has been pretty solid, but then
all of a sudden, they've allowed at least twenty six
points in each of the last three games. I keep
(24:59):
waiting for the the Aggies to have that usual late
season meltdown, but just hasn't happened this year. And I
love I love this Texas A and M team. I
think they're one of the few teams I've seen in
the last couple of years that really has no perceived
weakness South Carolina. It's not like they can, you know,
turn to someone else if they can't throw the football.
(25:22):
Their running game Faise On their top running back, just
three hundred and fifty rushing yards and three touchdowns, averaging
a little over four yards per carry. So this is
a bad team. What they did was they just structured
their nil money around paying Stewart their edge rusher, and
Leonora's Sellers their star quarterback. They just flunked out on
(25:45):
all the other guys that they ended up recruiting and buying,
and they've had to pay the price for it. Here
their coach might get fired. I like Texas A and
M big here. It's going to be a blowout here.
I haven't winning this game something like forty one seventeen
over South Carolina.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
All right, yeah, South Carolina one of the biggest disappointments.
They were preseason like number ten and they completely just
absolutely crapped the bed and has not recovered. Well, this
team's gonna have to recover, you know. I gave out
the team total over on Indiana versus Wisconsin at home.
(26:21):
And speaking of Wisconsin, they upset the team that I
like next to Washington Huskies last weekend. I don't even
get it so bad for Washington. Listen to this league.
Wisconsin had forty eight total passing yards in the game,
twenty four half of those were from the punter, the
other twenty four were from three quarterbacks combined, and they won.
(26:45):
They upset because Demon Williams had an inexcusable turnover inside
his own five yard line, which resulted in a Badger's touchdown.
So Jedfish a lot of speculation. Is he looking around?
Does he want to go back to his alma mater, Florida?
What's he doing? Does he looking at UCLA as a
potential safety net? Well, I can tell you this, Jedfish.
(27:08):
He needs to concentrate on the job that he has
right now. It's being the head coach of the Huskies.
So I think Washington's gonna have a big bounce back game.
It looks like Jonah Coleman Denzel Boston, who got hurt
in the game against Wisconsin. It looks like they're activated
and they will be ready on Saturday local kick in Seattle.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
At four point thirty.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
The team total over for the Huskies is thirty four
and a half. That shouldn't even be close. I think
Washington should drop a hammer half a hundred at least
on Wisconsin. Wisconsin's garbage, I assume not Wisconsin. Excuse me
on am I saying Wisconsin on Purdue. Wisconsin's garbage too,
But they're playing perdue. Washington team total over thirty four
(27:49):
and a half against Purdue. By the way, Produce former
defensive coordinator is the DC now for the Huskies, Ryan Walters,
and that defense for Washington is great. Jedfish needs to
get that offense back on track easily. Washington Husky team
total over thirty four and a half. Bet it now,
thank me later, all right? Lead to the NFL. You
(28:11):
got Bears Vikings in Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
Yep.
Speaker 4 (28:15):
The Vikings bye week was three weeks ago. The Bears,
believe it or not, haven't had a buy yet one
of the few teams and injuries and fatigue. Seems like
he's showing up. Somehow they're pulling out games, but not
like they're beating good teams here, Bears negative point differential
(28:36):
this year, but somehow they're three and six and three,
and you got to give them credit. But this game
is going to be an exercise and broken and busted
plays probably is going to hitche on which team is
able to manage to benefit from one more than the other.
The six and three Bears didn't win a road game
(28:58):
last season until Green Bay, and I think they're gonna
have trouble here against Minnesota. So Minnesota is starting to
get healthy again and just not impressed where Chicago's win
and thinks Minnesota might be settling in here and their receivers,
their receivers want the ball, and I think they're going
to do a number here on some weak Chicago TB.
(29:20):
So let's take Let's take the Minnesota Vikings and latest
small spot minus three. You know they won the first
game of the year and played absolutely horrible, just had
one good quarter. So I think Chicago's probably filling pretty
full of themselves right now. And some people say, oh,
they're looking you know, they're on a roll. They're looking
(29:41):
for the rematch here. But the bottom line here is
Minnesota is still by far the quality team. I think
they win and blow out fashion here something like thirty
one to seventeen.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
All right. I think the Bears are frauds too, and
just so much.
Speaker 3 (29:56):
I even looked at their sov their strength of victory
against their oppon it's twenty eight percent. That's their wins.
That's how weak their wins are this year. Coming up
next on Picking the Locks, brought to you by Fan
Duel Sportsbooks who Quamish Clearwater Casino Resort. We will have
what you all wait for each and every week, and
(30:18):
we will close out strong with exactly what this show
is called, the Locks. The locks are coming up next
right here on Picking the Locks. MJ from MJ in
the midday ten am, the one PM Sports Radio ninety
three to three KGRFM, and Lee Sterling don't go anywhere.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
Are you looking for a lock this weekend? You've come
to the right place. Now back to Picking the Locks
with Mark James and Lee Sterling, brought to you by
the fan Duel Sports Book ats to Kwamish Clearwater Casino
Resort on Sports Radio ninety three point three KJR FM.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
The final segment here on picking the locks, which we
call the locks. This is the one that you can
certainly if you like to. We always say bet responsibly. Now,
if you want Lee's vip Moundy picks, you can go
to Paramount Sports dot com or give them a call
it one eight hundred, four hundred ninety seven four one
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Speaker 2 (31:16):
Lee, you got any specials going on right now? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (31:19):
I do. In fact, big weekend here at Paramount Sports
so NFL we are rolling, had another four and week there.
We give up five selections each and every Sunday. We're
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You ask them where the documentation is nowhere? So what
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game's over, we fill it in with the score. So
you can be going on social media and seeing anything
(32:03):
bad about our company unless it's a competitor who's jealous
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us decade or more.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
So.
Speaker 4 (32:12):
I've been in the business thirty two years. I have
some clients that have been with me plus twenty five years.
So you've got to be good. You've got to treat
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and keep clients that long. So what we have going
is five selections for four weeks, so you're going to
get a total of twenty selections one hundred and ninety
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If you like the UFC boy were on a roll there.
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So a lot of different ways you can win. And
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look out, don't walk Run. So we've been in business
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Speaker 3 (33:31):
All right, let's go this show, by the way, picking
the lockspot to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. Suquamis Clearwater Casino Resort.
All right, let's get right to the picks and start.
You've got one East Carolina and a team that a
lot of people thought was going to be a maybe
group of five kind of party crasher to the playoffs, Memphis.
But they have fallen on hard times.
Speaker 4 (33:53):
Yeah, Memphis has and it's their defense. Their defense has
been absolutely horrendous. Last couple weeks. They lost U A B.
That's right, UA B. So that put them that started
them on the way down and then last week nationally
televised game couldn't get the job done again. So now
(34:15):
you know, what are they playing for? What is Memphis
playing for? And I just don't see it. They've got
a banged up quarterback and kid is really good. I
mean I think that, you know, he's a he's a
kid that if they'd made the playoffs, people will be
talking about Brendan Lewis all day long. But you know,
not like their other running backs are great, the receivers
(34:35):
don't have big play capability, guys. And East Carolina is
an under the radar team. You know everyone talks about
They were talking about Memphis, you know, they were talking
about Boise all these other teams. But bottom line is,
you know, let's talk about East Carolina. East Carolina is
a team that lost their coach last year. Yep, he
(34:55):
was fired with a couple of games to go, and
then all of a sudden, the interim coach ends up saying,
you know, what do you guys want to do? Talk
to the players. And kitln Hawser quarterback. Great job this year.
Fourteen touchdowns, five interceptions, a couple different running backs combined
nine touchdown runs. They've got their top two receivers over
(35:18):
forty receptions and another nine touchdowns. And defense they couldn't
stop anyone the last couple of years. I mean it
was like a turnstile. But this year they're top ten
and a lot of different statistical categories. So it's defense,
it's fueling it. And they would have beaten nanc State
early in the year. Everyone had been talking about them. Here,
(35:40):
I like East Carolina. Here, that's my first lock, all right, right,
lock number two is going to be. I'm gonna look
at the USC and Iowa game. So Iowa played out
of their minds last week. But let's look at what
happened in that game. I thought that they got lucky.
The weather was horrendous. Oregon lost a couple of their
(36:02):
receivers during the game. By the fourth quarter had lost
all four receivers. So now they got to get back
up off the deck after losing on the last play
of the game. Nothing on the line for him. They
have to travel to the West Coast. They haven't traveled
to the West Coast this entire season, have to face
the Trojans team ranked seventeenth. We talked about it. They
(36:24):
went out and they're probably ninety five percent chance will
be in the College Football Playoff. Their quarterback Jade and
Mayaba seventeen touchdowns and another six running the ball. Their
top two receivers averaging between fifteen and seventeen and a
half yards per reception. Top two running backs King Miller
(36:45):
and Wayman Jordan combined twelve hundred yards, ten touchdowns, and
get this, averaging seven point nine and six point five
yards per carry. But what's the difference this year? It's defense.
Last year empty one sacks for the entire year. That's right,
twenty one sacks. This year, they're averaging almost three sacks
(37:07):
per game and averaging one interception per game. So that
perceived notion that they only play offense can't stop a
stick of gum not the case anymore. So. I think
the situation with Iowa off that crushing loss and USC
playing also great at home five and zero straight up
(37:28):
four and one against the spread. The only time they
didn't cover was against Michigan State. They're up by twenty
one points in Michigan State threw a bomb of less
than three minutes to go in the game when they
had some backups in the game for a touchdown. Other
than that, backdoor touchdown, totally dominant at home. Sometimes you
got laid if you want to play it. Lock number two,
(37:48):
USC by double digits over Iowa.
Speaker 3 (37:51):
All right, let's now, I'm going to go to a
team that is kind of in the mix of things,
the University of South Lord of Bulls. They go on
the road to Annapolis, Maryland and face the Navy Midshipman. Now, Navy,
they've gotten blown out on the road. They lost, they
got absolutely destroyed at Notre Dame. They're one in seven
(38:13):
against the spread. But one thing about Navy, when they're
at home, they're a completely different team. They put up
points how many per game? Thirty seven and a half
points per game at home. And you know USF and
Alex Goulish and Byron Brown, who's one of the most
underrated quarterbacks in America. You know that they can score
(38:35):
and they've got something to play for here. Now it's
a high total sixty four and a half, sixty five,
I don't care. These two teams should combine for at
least forty eight points by the end of.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
The first half.
Speaker 3 (38:47):
And USF have gone over five times this year, Navy's
gone over six times this year, and the thing about Navy.
Not only can they score at home, but they give
up a lot of points. That's an over better's dream.
So go over sixty four and a half, maybe sixty
five USF and Navy. Now next for me, I'm gonna
(39:09):
go to the NFL, and I'm gonna go to a
guy who went over for me last weekend against the
Seattle Seahawks. He's an almost guaranteed overcover. And the Arizona
Cardinals Trey McBride best tight end in the National Football
League by far and away. He's averaging sixty seven yards
catching a game, but Arizona has no offense other than
(39:32):
Jacoby Brissett throwing to trade McBride. Now, Trey McBride last
weekend on thirteen targets nine catches for one hundred and
twenty seven yards. That will continue this week against the
San Francisco forty nine ers. So I'm looking at this
total right now, and player props Trey McBride sixty nine
and a half receiving yards versus the San Francisco forty
(39:56):
nine ers at home.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
That'll be an easy over cover.
Speaker 3 (40:01):
Betnett, Now thank me later, all right, Lee, you will
close it out your last lock of the week, and
we will go to a team that you're not that
far from, the Miami Dolphins, coming off their big upset
win over the Bills last weekend.
Speaker 4 (40:19):
Yeah, and it's a game. It's not gonna be played
in either team's home stadium, first game ever in Spain,
so that will be interesting. I always like watching some
of these games played overseas. You see people in the
stands wearing jerseys from other teams, from players who played
fifteen twenty years ago, so that always kind of I
(40:40):
find fun watching. But these two teams have quite a history.
Dolphins won their first Super Bowl the perfect season over
then Redskins, and then when they were silver Redskins or
Redskins got revenge in John Rigginson and won a Super
Bowl over Miami. So maybe this is the grudge match here.
Interesting here, and Washington's defense here is horrendous, allowing thirty
(41:08):
five point eight points per game. Miami's defense not great,
twenty six point four points per game, but they are
improving in shock the world last week when they defeated
the Buffalo Bills at home. Redskins here do one thing
really poorly on defense. They cannot stop that outside zone
run here. Couldn't do it last week against Detroit, and
(41:31):
that's what the Dolphins do extremely well here with Devon
h Chang so Han is right now one of the
hottest running backs here at over two hundred rushing yards.
I think Miami's feeling good about themselves. Jay Waddell finally
healthy again, so they still have weapons here. The three
and seven Dolphins don't possess the quality and talent of
(41:54):
a Detroit or Seattle or a Kansas City who put
twenty two, twenty four, twenty one point wins on this
Washington team. But Dallas, which is three to five and one,
beat him by twenty two here. Marcus Mariota really good,
you know, kind of moving between the twenties and the
thirty yard line. But he's gonna be without his top
(42:15):
receiver Terry McLaurin here, and I think that's a real
problem for this team. So I think Washington realizes they're
not going anywhere, and who knows, Miami gets on a roll,
they might be able to get up to five to
six wins here and save their coaches future here. So
I like Miami. I think they win this game by
at least a touchdown in Spain Dolphins. Third and final
(42:36):
lock of the day.
Speaker 3 (42:37):
All right, we're going to go to a big game
for both teams who have kind of hit a little
bit of a tough stretch in the season. The Tampa
Bay Buccaneers on the road in Buffalo, cold weather game
coming up on Sunday, early kick, one o'clock local time
in Buffalo and Buffalo. What can you say about this team?
(42:58):
I mean, they lose added Land. So it all started
after a loss on a Sunday night game to the
New England Patriots and second year upstar quarterback Drake May.
Then they go on the road the following week and
they look like absolute crap against the Falcons and they
got pretty much.
Speaker 2 (43:15):
They only scored fourteen points in that game.
Speaker 3 (43:17):
They follow up that they won at Carolina, and then
they knock off the Chiefs at home, which they've done
over the course of the last few regular seasons. Can't
do it in the postsens, but certainly during the regular season.
And then last weekly, I mean, are you kidding me?
They were an eight point favorite on the road. They
got absolutely curbstomp by Tua Tongue of Iloa Devon Aitchen.
(43:40):
As you mentioned in a coach who's one step away
from getting a pink slit Mike McDaniel. Well, Buffalo, it's
now or never time for the Bills, and you are
losing track right now to the Patriots, who obviously coming
off another win last night versus the New York Jets. Well,
let me just say this right now, the Buffalo Bills,
(44:02):
it's now or never, and if they're gonna win this game,
the raigning MVP is gonna have to come up big.
So I'm going player prop over here, Josh Allen two
hundred and thirty seven and a half passing yards, I'm
going with that. I've expected. I'm waiting for James Cook
to show up. He didn't show up against the Dolphins
(44:22):
last week, who had one of the worst run defenses
in the NFL. You're not gonna get over one hundred
plus yards against this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense led by
Vito Veya and Levonte David. So I think Josh Allen's
gonna have to throw for at least three hundred for
the Bills to win this game. It's gonna be a
shootout with Baker Mayfield and the Bucks. So give me
(44:43):
Josh Allen player prop over two hundred and thirty seven
and a half passing yards.
Speaker 2 (44:51):
So there we go.
Speaker 3 (44:53):
Another epic edition in episode of Picking the Locks is
in the books. Everybody out there bet responsibly, don't forget
Picking the Locks. You can hear each and every Friday
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(45:14):
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We appreciate those folks out there for being the title
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I'm feeling bullish about my picks. I know Lee is
as well. Don't forget. If you want Lee's VIP money picks,
you can go to Paramount Sports dot com or give
(45:36):
him a call at one eight hundred four hundred ninety
seven four to one. He's got a lot of great
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appreciate him and all he does as well.
Speaker 2 (45:51):
I'm MJ.
Speaker 3 (45:51):
Mark James. We'll see you next week on picking the
locks right here. Sports Radio ninety three three KJRFM, Seattle,