Fifth starter debate, lineup optimization, Alperen Sengun dazzles at EuroBasket

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven
ninety The Logger Line. It's proudly served to you by
car Box Clutch City Logger.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
It is good o Red Nation.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready The Logger Line.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
It starts now.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Welcome in to another new episode of The
Logger Line. As always, hosted by me Ben Jupo's I'm
joined by Polo Alves, our co host and producer out
of Portugal. It's Friday, September nineteenth. It's a relatively quiet

(00:52):
period in Houston basketball. There is a lot going on
on the Houston sports scene. The Astros are tied for first,
entering a pivotal weekend series against the Seattle Mariners. The
team they're tied with, the Texans, have started unfortunately they're
zero and two. But even with those two teams in season,
there's still some things to talk about basketball wise, because
the Rockets are now just about ten days away from

(01:14):
the opening of training camp on Tuesday, September thirtieth, so
we're getting close. Media Day is the twenty ninth. That's
Kevin Durant's birthday. It will also be effectively his introductory
press conference to the Rockets on Media Day at Toyota Center.

Speaker 2 (01:29):
So in the aftermath of that.

Speaker 3 (01:30):
Of course, we'll have shows reacting to what we hear,
not just from Kevin but the entire team. The point
is basketball is almost here, so we're gonna have episodes
much more regularly in the near future. Apologize for the
hiatus this month. There honestly has not been a ton
to discuss. I was also on vacation, but we are
going to get you an episode now because there have

(01:51):
been a few things going on in recent days that
are worth highlighting for starters all for in Shongoon had
a great run for Turkey at the twenty twenty five
year Row Basket Tournament. They went eight and one finished
as runners up, which I believe is tied for their
best ever finish in an international tournament.

Speaker 2 (02:08):
He looked really good. There was a game against Serbia.

Speaker 3 (02:11):
Where I thought it was one of the best international
games I've ever seen, and Alpi made the plays down
the stretch to get his team to win against a
Serbian side led by Nikola Jokich's rival in the NBA.
So a lot of positive things for Alpi. He should
be in shape, he didn't get hurt, so really everything
you could ask for other than winning the trophy, but

(02:33):
come on, that's a lot to ask for and a
loaded feel, especially with a German side led by Rockets
legend Dennis Shrewder that looks like these days to be
the best team outside of the United States in the
entire world.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
Anyway, we'll get to Alpi, but I want to.

Speaker 3 (02:49):
Start with something we heard from ima Udoka because ever
since the moves earlier this offseason, obviously Kevin but also
joriane Fitty Smith, Clint Pala, Joshua Kogi, we actually had
not heard from e May.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
We've heard from Raffel.

Speaker 3 (03:05):
We did not have any press conferences with e May,
which is barely standard. Head coaches are very available during
the season, general managers less, so that flips in the
off season because the off season is more transaction heavy,
well in the lead up to training camp, and the
Rockets want to, you know, create some buzz. People are
looking forward to this season, at least in the basketball

(03:25):
community because of the moves the Rockets made this offseason,
But there is a lot going on elsewhere on the
Houston Sports Sandmage the Astros and the Texans. So the
Rockets are doing some things to raise their profile. One
of those on September eleventh, they do an annual community
day giving back on what's called Patriot Day here in
the States, to basically honor the first responders. It ties

(03:47):
back into the September eleventh, two thousand and one terror
attacks in New York and Washington, and Emy and Rafel
spoke to us at that event. Again, Rafel we had
talked to before e May we had not, and so
it was our first chance to catch up with him
about everything that happened this offseason.

Speaker 2 (04:05):
His perspective. Obviously, he's talked to Kevin Durant.

Speaker 3 (04:07):
So while we have not talked to Kevin yet and
won't until that September twenty ninth media day, e May
has and he relayed a few messages from Kevin. As
far as his approach, he doesn't want it to be
about him. He wants to fill in the gaps and
so on and so forth. But what I thought was
the most revealing thing.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
That he May said.

Speaker 3 (04:24):
And I'm probably biased because I asked the question, but
I asked him because you sent out two starters. Jalen
Green and Dylan Brooks in the trade that brought in
Kevin Durant. Is that fifth spot in the starting lineup
Jabari Smith's to lose or is it going to be
an open competition? Obviously there's four spots that are spoken for,

(04:45):
fred En Fleet, Kevin Durant, Aman Thompson, alter In Shangoom.

Speaker 2 (04:49):
Those are locked.

Speaker 3 (04:50):
It's just you sent out two starters in Jalen and Dylan,
you got back one and Kevin. So who's going to
fill that fifth spot? Who's going to be the placement
for I guess Dylan Brooks because KD is gonna be
I guess an upgrade version of what Jalen Green was
in terms of that tip of the spear perimeter scorer.
And so I asked him, was Javari penciled in for

(05:12):
that slot or is it to be determined based on
training camp? An email's response to me, I'm gonna read
it it's to be determined. I do think Jabari showed
Truman this growth this offseason. Obviously he started the majority
of his time here before the injury. But we'll take
a look at everything. We feel we have incredible depth
this year and a lot of versatility. So we could
go a number of different ways.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
As far as that.

Speaker 3 (05:32):
I think some of that will be proven in training camp.
And this is me talking again. I'll admit that some
of that is boilerplate in that they want everything to
be open to competition.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
They don't want to be an organization.

Speaker 3 (05:46):
Where anything is handed to players. They want players to
earn minutes. So some of it could be coach speak
and behind closed doors, they expect Javari to be that
fifth starter. It would not surprise me if that's the case.
But vers is a content. Let's take his words at
face value and let's explore what the options are, because

(06:06):
I think realistically there's foor, there's a top nine when
it comes to guys that are clearly going to play
in the rotation day one. Assuming hell I mentioned the
four locked in starters, then you've got another group of
four in Jabari Smith's junior, Jorian Phinney Smith, Steven Adams,
and Tarry Eason. Those are for sure going to play.
And then the ninth is Reed Shepherd, who I think
is clearly going to play unless he has a disastrous

(06:28):
training camp in preseason. But I don't think you put
him at the level of the other four just yet
he's gonna be playing for developmental purposes, not because he's
actually worthy potentially of starting level minutes this season. Those
other four, all if the stars alied, if the matchups
are right, could be worthy of starting level minutes. Those
are good NBA players. So the Rockets do have some

(06:49):
Bible options. It's not just Jabari Smith. We'll look at
the pros and cons in a few minutes, but Powlo
where I want to start our discussion. Some of the
immediate reaction I saw on social media message boards to
that quote was, well, it's got to be Jabari because
of the contract, and I don't agree with that. I
do think Jabari is the favorite for the job simply

(07:11):
based on the quality of his play. He's done it before,
there's more trust, he's younger, so he may have more upside.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
There's plenty of.

Speaker 3 (07:18):
Basketball reasons to pick Schavari. But the deal the Rocket
signed him to this offseason, and we've covered it on
this show, it's a very team friendly deal. I know
there's some sticker shock when you see one hundred and
twenty million or whatever the total deal.

Speaker 2 (07:31):
Value was, but that's over five years. By the end
of that deal.

Speaker 3 (07:35):
It's not going to be that much above the mid
level exception, and so for me, when you look at
it in terms of percentage of the cap each year,
if Jabari works to end up as a solid six
man for a contender, I don't think that deal is
bad at all. So before we go into the pros

(07:56):
and cons, I just want to look at the business
angle of it. Because some people have said the Colts
already tipped their hand because of the deal they gave
out to Jabari. I don't see it that way. I
think they like Jabari. I think they want to keep
him around. But just from a math perspective, if you
give out a twenty is million dollars a year deal
in the NBA and that gets you a quality six
man on a contender, I don't think that's a bad contract.

(08:17):
I think that's perfectly fine in terms of team building.
So what's your take on the Jabari contract angle. Does
that make you convinced that he's going to be the
starter or are you in agreement with me that this
is still very much open ended and the contract isn't
much of a factor.

Speaker 4 (08:35):
I think the contract's a factor, but not the vari's contract.
I think once you've paid the player, there's no incentive
for you to go out and prove that the player's
worth the money unless you Unless they're planned when you
resign them was to flip them eventually. And I don't
think they're rockets are in the business of maximizing accets.
I think they're auckets out in the business of winning

(08:57):
at the same time, well, at least long right at
least or middle to long term. I do think it
might impact Tari's champs at starting because I think if
he does not have his deal signed and it's close
between him and the other candidates, I think the fact
that he doesn't have a deal signed might dip, like

(09:20):
his chances in the other direction because like it or not,
it impacts negotiations whether you're started or not in the NBA,
even if you play it in the minutes of the bench,
and so I think the contract might impact it on
Tari's end. On Therebries, I think since the contract is signed,
the'sinite thing that can be done. They're not gonna they
can't move them, I thing for a year at the

(09:41):
very least, and so there's no need to prove that
the contract is worth it, right now, I think the
outside of winning a championship, and even from an asset perspective,
you spent the assets on KD maximizing that is probably
more valuable than proving the Lipari is a good deal.
Even from an asset standpoint, I do think it might

(10:02):
apply a little bit more like I think people have
got the scale completely wrong. I think the Bodies is
the guy who the contract matters the least for at
least during this year, because he's not flippable. Is there's
nothing that can happen to like to change that. I
think it's the most for Darry. I think if the
contact is not signed, Tari will have a slightly hurt

(10:23):
chance at starting. And I think even Dariam Thinny Smith,
who I think we're assuming is the other Bade's candidate
for that spot, him being on a mid level or
a near middle level deal, he is flippable at the deadline,
and he is of a position that the Rockets have
a ton of talent that and so him playing does
bring pretty immediate value assets wise. If the Rockets are

(10:46):
to make a move at the deadline, Let's say let's
say that all sorts ofsce le all analysis is right,
and ruggets are lacking a guard or someone gets hurt
and they don't have the depth. The guy that you
probably move first, depending on how much money you're trying
to get back, is probably finished Smith from a value standpoint,
probably coupled with Capella because of the salary that gives

(11:09):
you about twenty million salary, which is easy to match
with other mid level salaries in the league. But yeah,
before before we get into the actual merit of it,
I think from a business standpoint, the contracts matter very little.
But in the cases they do matter. Is actually the
other way around to what most people were talking about.

Speaker 3 (11:27):
Well, and your business case actually matches up pretty well
with my basketball case because when you look at the options,
and again I've got a group of four, I think
the way to break down the confirmed nine men rotation,
the four starters no matter what Fred kd Aman in Shangoon.

Speaker 2 (11:44):
The four very good role players Shabari, Stephen, Doran, and Tari,
and then read Shepherd.

Speaker 3 (11:52):
Who's in his own tier because to some degree he's
going to be given a rotation role for developmental purposes,
not necessarily because he's clearly a good rotation player day one.
So there's a group of four, and of those four,
I think Tari is the least likely to start. I think,
certainly the energy that he plays with can be disproportionately

(12:16):
valuable against the bench, against second teamers. But I also
just think the nature of his play from a basketball perspective,
he's the least likely to warrant a starting spot.

Speaker 2 (12:27):
Because his level of play can be so matchup dependent.

Speaker 3 (12:30):
And we saw this the last time we saw the
Rockets in the playoffs, when everybody in the organization sort
of conceded that the Warriors because of their discipline, because
of their movement, or a bad matchup, because they would
take advantage of Tari's propensity to gamble. I think he
can improve that. Will it be night and day difference
in a span of four months, I doubt it. I

(12:51):
think from a basketball standpoint, he is the riskiest to
start because there's more downside than there is with the others,
and so it's it sounds like at least your perspective
is that if they don't get an extension done, it
decreases the incentive.

Speaker 2 (13:06):
To start him.

Speaker 3 (13:07):
I think there's already, for a basketball perspective, the least
incentive to start him, and so I think again, I
don't want to be too declarative because the Rockets, they
do want to have a culture where everything's earned. So
if Tari goes out and training camp in the preseason
and is clearly better than those other guys, I'm not
going to say it's impossible, But for purposes of this exercise,

(13:29):
I'm gonna I'm gonna put a line through his name
because I think he's the least likely the other guy
that I would be surprised, not quite as unlikely as Tari,
but I still think it's unlikely it's Steven, just because
I don't think, you know, the rotations get a little
bit clunky if you start to centers, and I don't

(13:50):
think they necessarily want the double big to be in
every game thing, or at least in every game thing
to the extent that it would be if you start
Alp and Steven together, And so you're already at a
baseline of twelve to sixteen minutes based on the first
six to eight minutes of the first and third quarters
before you even consider the remaining minutes of each half.

(14:13):
I think emi Udoka wants that to be a club
in his bag, but I don't think they want to
lean into it as the only thing, because a lot
of success in the NBA comes down to maximizing your
best player or best players. And I know they're high IQ,
but Men Thompson all for in Schongoon, Steven Adams, none
of them are shooters right now.

Speaker 2 (14:34):
Now, Powlo, maybe you believe.

Speaker 3 (14:36):
That Shingoon will develop a three point shot. We saw
a little bit of that at EuroBasket. I'm sure we'll
get into that in a few minutes, but as of now,
those are three non spacers, even for Kevin Durant. That
can make life a little bit difficult. Quite frankly, I
think it's not meant to be an excuse, but I
do think it's part of the reason Jalen Green struggled
in the playoffs. They felt they had to lean into
double big more and so that compressed the spacing. Again,

(14:58):
that's not the only factor, but I think it's a factor.
And so to get the best out of Kevin Durant,
to maximize your best player, I think it's tough to
do that in the modern NBA with three nonspacers. I
think there are matchups where the Rockets would love to
have that option.

Speaker 2 (15:13):
But there's a.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
Reason why they didn't do it a ton in the
regular season and part of the reason they did it
so much in the playoffs. Everyone remembers it, but the
Warriors were a nightmare matchup for the Rockets on the
defensive end. The defensive end for Golden State, that is.
You listen to this podcast, if you go back to
our archives back in November and December of last year,

(15:35):
we were talking about, way back then how much the
Rockets offense ground to a halt against the Warriors. Well,
if you're worried about your half court offense stalling out,
what makes the double big so valuable is that you
crash the offensive glass so much, you get two, three,
four possessions and eventually you're bound to make a damn
shot at some point. And so I think the Rockets
using it as much as they did in the playoffs

(15:57):
had a lot to do with who they drew as
an appot. I don't think they want to do it
every matchup. I also think Steven Adams, I don't know
if he's gonna play both ends of back to backs.

Speaker 2 (16:06):
He's now in his thirties. They're probably gonna load manage him.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
I know they have Clint Cappella, but I don't think
Clint Capella is nearly the player that Steven Adams is
at this point in time. I think the Rockets want
double Big as an option. I don't think they want
it as an every game thing for the twenty plus
minutes that it likely would be if that was your
starting lineup. I think Steven will be load managed. I
think they want more flexibility in spacing with their lineups,

(16:32):
and so that leaves to Jabari and Dorian, and honestly,
I could go either way. Jackson Gatlin over at Lockslan
Rockets had a really good case for Dorian the other day,
and I see why. There are fairly similar archetypes of players,
except Dorian's a little bit better as a shooter. He
was about forty one percent from three last year. He's
probably a little more versatile defensively, and that Jabari sometimes

(16:53):
struggles on the switches against the blow by the quicker guards.
Dorion I think, even though he's ten years older, a
little more fluid in terms of his lateral movement. And
so yeah, if both of them are going to be
looked at as you know three and D role player types,
and Dorion is a little bit better than Jabari, and

(17:14):
maybe Jamori can get more touches off the bench.

Speaker 2 (17:18):
There's a case to be made for Dorion. However, I
still I.

Speaker 3 (17:22):
Come back to Javori simply because I think there's two
main factors here. I think this was a Houston team
that struggled offensively for most of last year. Now, they
did add Kevin Durant, but that's not the only thing
they're trying to do. It's not like they're trying to
rely on Kevin exclusively to improve the offense. And Dorion

(17:45):
is a better shooter than Jabari. But I do think
Jabari has a more diverse offensive game and that you
can run a little more pick and pop. You can
run offense through him in the mid post, and so
if guys like KD and shingoud Or drawing a lot
of attention on one side of the floor, and you
can take advantage of the other team putting their weakest

(18:06):
defender on Jabari. I think he's more capable in one
on one situations of doing some damage against weaker defenders
than Dorian Finney Smith this and so I think that's
a plus for Jabari. And I also think just the
age look, Jabari is a guy at twenty two. There's
value in what we hope as an extended contending window

(18:27):
and having as close to a constant starting lineup as
you can have so these guys can continue to build
chemistry with one another. With Jorio, I'm not going to
say he's close to, you know, being washed, but he's
thirty two. He's at an age where it's not unforeseeable
that there could be some decline in his play. It's

(18:48):
not like he's under contract for a super long time.
His deal is just for two years, and so I
think it's close between Jabari being younger, having a little
more upside offensively or at least more diverse tools offensively,
and just the overall chemistry, the fact that Jabari has
been there already, He's played with a lot of these guys.
He's probably gonna be here a lot longer because of

(19:10):
his age, because of that contract.

Speaker 2 (19:12):
I think if it's.

Speaker 3 (19:13):
Close, the tie goes to Jabari, and my gut tells
me it will be close. But I respect the argument
for Dorian because again, if the idea is that it's
also going to be like a three and D position,
well to this point he's been a little bit better
in those areas, and last season there was a reason
why after a men went into the starting line up permanently,
there were some people that expected Jabari to start and

(19:33):
Dylan to go to the bench. Well, imy Udoka stuck
with Dylan, and some of it's because he's the veteran,
but also I think they wanted Dylan's flexibility and is
shooting well. Dorion is closer to Dylan than Jabari is
in terms of an archetype. Not identical, but closer. So
I guess where I keep coming back to. Of the four,

(19:56):
for me, it's Jabbari and Dorian that are at the top,
and my gut tells me Jabari I think for a
lot of reasons it's the cleanest fit. But it wouldn't
for me if it's Pinny Smith. I would be very
surprised if it's Steven Adams or chary Ethan. So that's
sort of how I ranked the four. Hollo, how do
you see I guess all four of those options and

(20:17):
how it all comes together.

Speaker 4 (20:24):
I think you met a lot of really good points.
So I guess I'll take what you said and I
mostly agree with it, and I'll add a couple more factors.
I think Mike playing the decision, which I think between
those two, which which I do agree, would be the
final two for the decision. And I think, as you said,
Tarry is more situational. The gamest teams are maybe a
little bit less discipline on with ball handling and stuff

(20:46):
like that. Perhaps teams that you know are more undiscipline
or play smaller. Sorry, is obviously a great reboundary f
he's played at the three. If it's played at the four,
he is a normal rebounder. But sorry, My point was
between between jabari and and Phinnie Smith. I think the
defense plays a factor, and I do think that Darren

(21:07):
Konie Smith is probably a better defender on the perimeter
than Bari is. He's probably not as good of a
shot flocker, even though even though kbarti Is still needs
to improve on that. But I think it should be
a conversation whether or not Katie is going to start
at the three, at the two, or the three or
the four. And I think it is also up to

(21:29):
the discussion where a man starts. A men's doesn't have
to necessarily be the two. If a man's the three,
he's more free he's further away from the ball to
play that Draymond Green, Robert Williams like Romer role in
which you would just allow him to be a defensive
playing maker and trust that he's a full season and
his IQ will play off in him making plays that

(21:51):
other players can't make. And so I think I think
they will consider a man playing the three on defense.
I think that after that it can also move on
to a matchup dependem thick right, because last year we
kind of put a like we kind of blanketed every

(22:11):
time the other team has a physical babe. We would
always put Dylan Brooks on into all the Dylan Brooks
Dylan Brooks on him. Now Dylan Brooks is gone, and
who will be made up a trust the most to
guard you know, those more physical bigs than the Julius
Randall's of the world. The probably not obviously talking about
the yolkinches and stuff like that, but those more physical

(22:31):
bruiser type pigs probably in nas reads of the world
as well, those you know, talented offensive bruiser types. I
think j wari on paper would be the guy to
put on them. But obviously with the higher set of
gravity he had at the first he had the first
time guarding those guys. Torian Phinnis Smith might be the
guy they put on those guys as well, just because
Tari has shown, as you said, to be a little

(22:52):
bit un disciplined sold in the in the Golden State
series as well as far as even in the post
like jumping for faith, and you're a lot more punished
guarding the post. Those guys have typically more or able
to punish that over in eagerness of Mari a little
bit more.

Speaker 2 (23:09):
By the way, that's a really good point on the defense.

Speaker 3 (23:12):
You know, I was comparing it to what e May
got from Dylan last year, and I was thinking offensively,
because Jorian's a better shooter than Jabari is, at least
statistically to this point. And so I think one of
the reasons he may kept Dylan in the lineup with
the fact that he was shooting almost forty percent on
threes last year. But conversely, Dylan was so important when
it came to guarding those physical bigs.

Speaker 4 (23:34):
Jimmy Bufort himself.

Speaker 3 (23:36):
Yeah, well, it's ironic because it was the advantage that
Dylan had on Jabari last year.

Speaker 2 (23:43):
But I think this year that's where Dylan and Dorian
are different.

Speaker 3 (23:45):
I think Jabari is actually a little bit better than
Jorian is when it comes to the physicality and being
able to bump. I think Dorian's advantage on Jabbari defensive
laze on the perimeter, and so yeah, some of that
may play into how exactly and where do you use
a mental because I think would you agree that Jabari
is better defensively for the more physical types he can
bang a little bit more and Jorian to me where

(24:07):
it seems like he has an advantage. He's better at
sliding his feed I mentioned the lateral quickness at shopping
the passing lanes. To me, Dorian seems a little better
on the perimeter, But then Jabari might be a better
drop in if you're wanting more that physicality. He's not
as physical as still in Brooks, but he is still
pretty physical.

Speaker 4 (24:25):
I think it depends on the type of physicality. I
think if you're having in them guard the five or
more of rebound oriented five or less of a grafty type,
I think Labari is probably better because of the length.
I do think there's an argument to be made for
not in finished with being better on the Julius Randall types.
And mostly because Gibari is lengthy and he has gotten

(24:49):
more physical, but he still like fouls a lot with
his arms, and I think it's mostly the fouling that
kind of betrays him because it's really easy to get
into his chest and then obviously match surely your arms
come down, and he gives up a lot of files
please from memory, gives up a lot of owls that way.
I think if you're like, if you're in a clutch
game situation in which the red start, you know, really

(25:11):
lais a focused scene for if a fouls committer or
not threether the universes on the line, I think I
would probably put the more disciplined defender. And I think
that's part of the reason why Dylan Brooks was the
guy that they put on him, because you know, Dylan
Brooks can be in discipline, but I think that mostly
happens on the perimeter on be over eager trying to

(25:33):
close out stuff. Like I think in the post, he's
a pretty solid guy. So yeah, I disagree a little bit.
In wik one I would put on the Julius Randal types.
I do agree as far as you know, if someone's
playing double big or if someone is playing. You know,
their big outside and you're having to guard I don't

(25:54):
know what. Let's let's look at a maybe a Mittel
Robinson carl Any Towns QA and for example in which
katins Out's side is outside. If we meet someone to
garden into Robinson, I will probably trust Jabari more with
that assignment, But with Chills Renald, I'll probably trust of
probably trust Darrin, Finnie Smith Moore. I don't know if
you have anything on that or if I should move on.

Speaker 3 (26:16):
Uh, you can move on. Well, let me jump in
with one other angle to this. So I saw a
column at SI from Leshard Binkley, whose work I really respect.
He's a sharp guy. Binkley hoops on Twitter, but one
thing I disagree with him on, and I guess it's
a good place to I guess have this brief discussion
before we get to your conclusion. Pallow so Lechhard wrote

(26:39):
a column and there's a subhead the fifth starter will
be a fluid decision all season long, and Lashard basically
makes the case for I may potentially going back and
forth depending on matchups. I would actually be very surprised
if he does that, based on what we've seen from me,
may Udoka, he seems to really value consistency and role,

(27:00):
and think back to the playoffs, they obviously felt like
the double big was their best option, and yet they
still didn't start it. I think May he's not gonna
never make a change, but I do think he wants
guys the rotation patterns when they enter, who they play
with at least to start each half, to be fairly similar. Now,

(27:23):
certainly in winning time in the fourth quarter, who has
the hot hand and who doesn't.

Speaker 2 (27:27):
Yeah, there's gonna be some variants, but.

Speaker 3 (27:29):
I from following I May the last two years, he
seems like a guy who really values consistency of role,
and some can certainly argue to a fault. So I'm
not necessarily saying he's one hundred percent right, But I
just feel like, whoever he chooses to start the year, like,
I'm not gonna say one hundred percent, it's locked in stone,
it's never gonna change. But I think that player is

(27:51):
likely to have a fairly long leash now if he underperforms,
if the team underperformed, sure it can change. But I
sort of disagree with Leshard on the premise that it
could be a game by game thing. Maybe you can
make the argument that it should be, but in terms
of the reality, my guess is that whoever starts whoever,
the fifth starter is on opening night in Oklahoma City,
which is, by the way, basically a month away October

(28:13):
twenty first. I think that's likely to be the starter
around Christmas, assuming everyone is healthy.

Speaker 2 (28:19):
That's my guess. Power are we in agreement on that. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (28:23):
Part of my conclusion was that I see two ways
it can go, and one of them was the way
he said was to describe it. But I am with
you in saying like, I think that would be an
option with a different coach. I don't think it's an
option with email, just because of how we've seen them
operate at this point, and there would be merits to
that solution, especially in a situation in which you know,

(28:45):
the three guys are based or the four guys are
really in terms of impact, are pretty much, you know,
pretty comparable, and that's the way for you to keep
everybody happy. Like, if if nobody is the starter, then
it's easy to like, if no one's the start, then
nobody is the bench guy either, right then, so it's
easier to keep everybody happy as far as that goes,

(29:08):
and it's easier to, you know, kind of get guys
to buy into that. I think it'd be easier to
get guys to buy into that role. Not but I
think he may really cares because with you either buying
or you don't play. But it would be easier to
get guys to buy into those roles when you said,
when you know that it's basically match up dependent and

(29:28):
what you have to do is go out there and
do your best. But I guess to put a bow
on it, I don't.

Speaker 2 (29:34):
It's struck.

Speaker 4 (29:35):
I honestly don't have an answer for what I would
do if I had to. If I had to decide
right now, I would probably start Dorian Sphinney Smith and
bring Jabari off the bench, because I think there's value
to be had in Kibari as a shot creator shot
creator a little bit with those bench units that I

(29:56):
don't think will be there or that opportunity will be
there for him if he is in the starting line
up playing you know, at least the first eight minutes
of first and quarters with Kadam and Fred and shingun So,
since I think they're really comparable on the defensive end.
Obviously you can sailor them a little bit to whatever

(30:17):
matchup it is, but I think the difference between them
really stands out on the offense event and on that side,
you know, I would want to take as much pressure
as possible from Rechat, but obviously you know it's not
a five man swap of subs, right, it's not bench
units and and starters. They'll staggered. But still I would rather.

(30:38):
I think there's more of a margin to gain on
offense there than there is on defense.

Speaker 2 (30:44):
So are you predicting that it will be Dorian or
is that what you would do?

Speaker 4 (30:48):
For clarity, That's what I would do, and I think
that's what I would predict as well. Not not for
the reason I explained, but I think he may will
do it because it's a vert and interest and more hmm.

Speaker 2 (31:00):
Interesting.

Speaker 3 (31:01):
I was thinking that I may would air with Jabari
based on the previous playing experience.

Speaker 2 (31:06):
It'll actually be sort.

Speaker 3 (31:07):
Of an interesting mix there, and that Dorian's the veteran,
but Jabari is the guy who has more trust equity
here with these coaches, with two previous imai Udoka years.
Everybody knows internally that he's one of those culture guys.

Speaker 4 (31:21):
So how much stressed equity is there really? If he
played as little Lesibat in the playoffs concerning how well
it was pointing like, I don't know how Imy feels
about him.

Speaker 3 (31:31):
Yeah, that's a good point, and I guess to take
it full circle. That's why I don't think the contract
is all that important. I know you were talking about
how the contract makes it to where it gives them
more flexibility. They don't have to have a resolution anytime
soon from a business perspective. But I also think just
in general, a lot of fans don't understand how low

(31:55):
the number actually is, Like they did not make some
huge commitment in Jabari.

Speaker 2 (32:00):
When you look.

Speaker 3 (32:00):
At the percentage of the cap, it is perfectly reasonable.
Would you agree that if Jabari Smith is a solid
six man, that that's a good contract.

Speaker 2 (32:11):
Do you agree with that? Yes?

Speaker 4 (32:13):
It Stop worrying about five years one hundred and twenty two,
start thinking about twelve percent of the cap and go
of the cap twelve percent. If the team had ten people,
twelve percent would mean that he is, you know, it
would be an equal percentage, not precisely, but to what
he is of the team. The team has fifteen players.

(32:35):
Five of them are always willing to be minimums or
a large part of them, especially when the team's contending.
So twelve percent, if you were to spread out the
cap evenly, would be like one of the rose Asian guys.
Obviously that's not the case because you do pay mac
salaries to guys, which breaks the which makes that makes
it makes it so the lower end. Religion has to

(32:55):
be keyboard. But he is making slightly above rubber coving
the money when he was with the Rockets. So and
I think you would not be shocked if Robert Covington
Kirk came off the bench when he was with us,
and I think he did at certain points for d J.

Speaker 2 (33:12):
Zucker.

Speaker 4 (33:12):
Yeah, so it wouldn't be shocking at all. This isn't
like the money that the Rockets are paying LABORI. There's
very little speculation for Libary's upside with that number. The
speculation for the Bart's upside with that number is mostly
if he can improve shooting and defense. There's basically no
factor being superstar potential to it.

Speaker 2 (33:32):
Like.

Speaker 4 (33:32):
This is not one of those cases where a guy
show has showed flashes and he has been able to
have to leverage the near max contract is making like
less than the max. I think the rookie max is
twenty five. Guys in their primes, the dissentation of the
world that are not all NBA make thirty and the
superstars the super max is thirty five percent is making twelve.

(33:54):
So he's making half of what the max money, of
what max money is, he's making half of what Paul Caro is.
That's the comparison that you have to draw.

Speaker 3 (34:03):
Yeah, absolutely, I'm way over simplifying here, But a lot
of the reaction on my feeds has been, well, if
there's a debate for the starting lineup, if Jabari isn't
in the starting lineup, then something is terribly wrong. Because
the Rockets gave him this big contract. That's not what happened.
They gave him a solid contract for a rotation player.
But I don't think it guarantees that he's got to

(34:25):
be a starter or something is wrong. No, if he
turns out to be a six man, that's perfectly fine.
Now I think he can be more than that. And
again my prediction is that he'll start. I think if
it's closed, they'll air on the side of the guy
who's been here longer, has more bonds in the locker room,
has more experience playing with most of the players kd excluded,
although Kadi and Jabari have an off season relationship that

(34:47):
perhaps can be tapped into. I guess your point on
jora on being more of an NBA veteran, that's an
interesting angle that I hadn't really considered, and so how
emay balances those factors will be fascinating to watch in
training camp in the preseason. But regardless the larger point,
Jabari's contract does not guarantee him a starting role. It
is perfectly reasonable if he's a bench player, and so

(35:07):
I think this will be decided on the merits and
not based on the salary figure that each of those
two guys is on. To transition to the Shingoon discussion,
you know I mentioned a case for Jabari and you
sort of went the other way. Is about, you know,

(35:29):
the collective offense, and you mentioned using Jabari off the bench,
leaning into a shock creation more perhaps making life easier
for Reed Shepherd. I was thinking, because you don't want
to rely solely on Kevin Durant to take this team
from a mediocre at best offense really a below average
offense when we look at half court situations to what

(35:51):
we hope is a championship contending one and so to me,
Jabari having more tools in this bag, being able to
attack one on one weaker defenders that are put on
him if he starts, can potentually be something aside from
Kevin Durant that bumps your offense in the half court.
But if you are good enough at those other four
positions Fred van Fleet should be healthier this year, then

(36:14):
perhaps you go for the simplified role with that fifth starter,
someone who can just basically be a star in his
limited role, a true three and D guy, which jorian
Anethitty Smith is. And so it just comes down to
are you gig enough at those other four spots that
that fifth one can be more of a specialist. I
think that's what it comes down to. It's an interesting

(36:34):
thought exercise, and again I don't want to put it
all on Katie's plate, especially at thirty seven years old,
when I'm sure there'll be a few maintenance games. I
doubt he plays in both halves of back to backs
at least not all year, not saying he'll be on
a no back to backs regimen, but I don't think
it'll be a guarantee that he plays in both and
so there's multiple ways that you could go about it,

(36:56):
but one way that maybe you don't need to offense
in the starting lineup, as if you get improvements at
the non KD spots I mentioned maybe Fred is healthier,
but also Amen Thompson all for Inch Shangoon, maybe those
guys take steps forward relative to last year. A Man
is twenty two, Alp is twenty three. They're certainly at
a spot in their careers where you can hope for

(37:18):
jumps between seasons, and based on what we saw at EuroBasket,
it's certainly possible. I think the biggest takeaway of all
Alpha and Shomgoon should be in really good shape entering
training camp. Those were high level games, they were intense.
He held up, he defended at a high level. He
did everything that you could reasonably ask. And how my

(37:39):
hot take coming off of EuroBasket, I think to start
this year.

Speaker 2 (37:45):
Could be the most shin hub we've seen yet.

Speaker 3 (37:48):
And I'm not saying it's necessarily going to be that
way for the entire season, but I think just sort
of reading the tea leaves Shingoon's going to be in
the best shape of anyone.

Speaker 2 (37:57):
That hasn't always been the case in the past.

Speaker 3 (38:00):
Early in his career, the Rockets didn't like well, I
don't want to be too harsh, but they had concerns
over how seriously he was taking his physical conditioning that
has since improved. Last year he was coming off the
ankle injury that ended his previous season. This year, he's
fully healthy. He's coming off these high intents of the
EuroBasket Games and everything we've heard from Kevin Durant. Again,

(38:23):
he hasn't done his interview with US, but he did
do an interview with CNBC this week where he talked
about wanting to blend in. At that September eleventh event
that we got to talk those of us in Houston
media with eBay and rafel Emy talked about Kevin wanting
to fill in the gaps and not make everything about
him and relative to Jalen Green, whose role he's going

(38:44):
to be taking now, it's a better version of Jalen Green,
a much better version, but I think the overall role
in terms of, you know, the blueprint of a fifty
two to thirty number two seed in the West last season,
Kevin Durant is a much better off ball player than
Jalen Green was. The last few years, there's always been,
you know, the undercurrent of all of those Jalen Green,
all pri In Shingoon teams was how can the Rockets

(39:07):
get the best out of both of those players at
the same time. That was always a little bit of
a problem, in large part because Jalen wasn't the best
off ball guy, and to start last year, I distinctly remembered,
like I wondered, so Shingoon got hurt in early March
of twenty four and right after he got hurt, there
was a little bit of overlap, but mostly after was
when Jalen went absolutely insane and he was like player

(39:29):
of the month good, and so we all wondered, coming
back to the next year, what's it going to look like.

Speaker 2 (39:33):
The first two or three weeks.

Speaker 3 (39:34):
Of the season, it looked like it was Jalen Green's team,
and we wondered, when is Shingoon gonna get going? And
eventually he did, and you know, it's sort of balanced out.
But I think over the there are four years together,
there was always this this push and pull in terms
of is this Sjalen's time or is it Alpie's time?
And I think even though Alpi was largely the better

(39:56):
player a few games excluded, it was always but delicate
from a political perspective too, because Jalen was the guy
who was the higher draft pick number two. Alpi was
number sixteen, both in the twenty twenty one first round,
and so at times Alpi was deferential. They obviously liked
Jalen as a person. They wanted him to get going.
The highs were very high. We saw that in March

(40:17):
or twenty four, and so I think there were times
when the Rockets and maybe Alpi individually weren't as aggressive
with him as they otherwise would be because they were
trying to get Jalen going as opposed to this season,
Kevin Durant is someone that is much more comfortable in
his own skin for obvious reasons. One of the best
players in NBA history. He also provides a lot more

(40:38):
offful value because he is an elite shooter. Unlike Jalen
and all of the players. When you look at how
they report to training camp, Alpi's going to be in
the best physical condition. He's coming off these high level
games that I'm sorry guys that are doing their gym runs,
their many camps, rockets are practicing. I believe this week
together in advance of training camp, what Alpi just did

(41:01):
in EuroBasket is completely different the level of competition. So
I think between him being the most ready, between Kevin
already suggesting that he's okay at least initially taking a
little bit of a secondary role, trying to blend in
not making it all about him, and Shalen not being here,
I tend to think this is the most shin hub
that we've seen. And the one guy I haven't mentioned

(41:24):
is a Men Thompson. But you know, I think a
Men will do a little bit more on ball this year,
but I don't think it's gonna be like a switch
a splip the thing with the Men, He's very steady
and methodical in his improvements. You just see a lot
of growth week on week, month on month. But I
doubt it's a situation where when the season tips off
in October, the preseason opener is god just like two

(41:46):
weeks away on Monday to six.

Speaker 2 (41:48):
It's not gonna be night and day different from May. Like.

Speaker 3 (41:52):
He'll have his moments, but I also don't think it's
gonna be like all of a sudden, he's Giannis and
you run your entire offense through him. He might do
a little bit more, I don't think he's going to
do a ton more. So to circle back to the premise,
which is if the Rockets are sort of looking at
how they can get better offensively, which we know is
a theme, and outside of just KD, how can they

(42:13):
optimize their roster? To me, it's bumps from a man
in Shongoon that are the low hanging fruit. And so
between the need to get better offensively, the fact that
Jalen's out here anymore, the fact that all on occasions
are KD wants to here not be too heavy handed
in terms of how he integrates himself into this team,
and then I'll be coming off this run at EuroBasket

(42:35):
to be what all of that leads to is the
start of this season this offense looking more shin Hub
than it ever has.

Speaker 2 (42:42):
That's my read, Pawlo.

Speaker 3 (42:44):
What's your thought on that as a hot take and
just your general I guess reflections on what you saw
from Opera, Shongoon and EuroBasket.

Speaker 4 (42:53):
So, first of all, I want to put a little
bit of context to the viewers who might not watch
European basketball as much. European basketball has a lot less athleticism,
it's a lot more ground based. On the other hand,
there's a lot more you know, team basketball, both on
defense and on offense. And so what this leads to is,

(43:15):
you know, star talent on offense shines more, especially guys
who can pass the ball, because guys are never sitting
still in European basketball a lot more than the NBA.
And I think that's to your point about playing chen Hub.
That's when that is all that has always been a
critical factor. Obviously, the shooting matters, and we've never had

(43:37):
the lead shooting around chin gun, but our cutting and
our off ball movement from all of our guys. When
when Stingun has the ball in the post, like in
European basketball, that's the way you learn how to play
the game. You don't have the ball, you move unless
your job is to spot up and your one pass away.
In the NBA, players are a lot lazier when they

(43:58):
don't have the ball. On offense, even role players have
kind of stabilized onto Okay, my job is to sit
in the perimeter and wait for the ball, and so
playing Shann Hubb demand's a lot higher engagement and and
spending of energy from everybody else on the court at
the same time, because otherwise thingles just going to get

(44:19):
doubled and you're not gonna punish it. And like you
can't unless you're a weed shooting and a weak shooting team.
You're not gonna punish double teams unless you're moving and
you immediately punish it. Because these guys have to athletic
they recover way too fast. And when you look at
passing bigs in the league, there's two types. There's the hubs,
which are Yoki, Chim Shingwood, and there's the guys who

(44:42):
farm a lot of a lot of assists sort off
of drible handoffs of of you know, designed plays in
which you're not necessarily like in a drible handoff for
Sabonis for Zubat. It's basically like it's not a screen,
but it's a famous screen. Like you're not asking too
much out of the big and you're not you're not

(45:04):
asking too much out of everybody else on the floor
when that actually is happening, it's mostly it's kind of
like a pick and Rolly. It's an acting between a
big and a garden, or a big and a forward
who's taking a vent to live it, or a shooter
or whatever you place it on the court. When you
look at Denver, if there's one thing that's common across
all of success in Denver is the fact that you

(45:26):
always have guys who move off the ball constantly. Bruce Brown,
Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, the I forgetting Christian Brawn before him,
Jeff Green, Russell Watsborough not not but the big they
had the Mry Jordan as well. Their role players have

(45:46):
built into their games that they are constantly moving, and
that's what you need if you want to run Shan
Hubbs as a you know, go to offensive player. Otherwise,
Chen hubb is probably going to be either what it
has been those far as he's he gets double, heap,
he gets double, he passes out of it and we
can't punish and it we basically waste a lot of time.

(46:07):
Or he doesn't get double and he can he cooks.
Or the other option is I think him run those
actions that supporters can run and Zubaki can run, and
you give the ball to KD and or give the
ball to Fred Adleet and you have Shan Gun's gravity
give an advantage to the ball handler. Basically, that's not
really schen hub for me, that's not really a big
being a hub, being a superstar player, a hub in

(46:30):
an offense in the NBA. So if that's going to happen,
it's going to require a lot of change to just
the mentality of the team in general. And I'm not
sure that's going to happen. I think they're going to
try to give the ball to Shangun and having KD
there might mean less double teams and so you might
see an increase in volume. But if they want to
lean one hundred percent into it, it requires a lot

(46:52):
of change. And I think probably only a man founds some.

Speaker 2 (46:55):
KT has value off all.

Speaker 3 (46:56):
I mean, he doesn't owe xtiously the one said, but
there's still value in a way that there was it
with Jalen Green.

Speaker 4 (47:02):
No, absolutely, there's absolutely value there. I'm talking more about
the wing player role, guys, because everybody's going to be
paying attention to Katie no matter what. You're not going
to surprise anybody with Katie.

Speaker 3 (47:11):
Which although although Jory Anthony Smith is someone who does
move off the ball. So perhaps that plays into our
earlier discussion. If you start Jory Odd, that's another guy
who perhaps plays into the shintab because unlike Jabari, he's
a little bit more remover.

Speaker 4 (47:25):
Yeah no, I don't, Humber. I'm with that, just you know,
and going back to the year, maybe you changed up,
but there's it's been a lot of years of Jabari, Sari,
Jay Shantids. Those guys just being used to watching Jillen
and KPJ Cook and sit in the corner. So if
they're going to run it, I'm all for it. I

(47:46):
support it. There needs to be a mentality change across
the team to talk about Shane gun In in euro Basket.
The other thing with that's different about EuroBasket compared to
the NBA is that they allow a lot more contact
than they do in the NBA. And the fact that
that contact was still there and Shinglund had one inefficient

(48:07):
game has me really considant about his. That's being bad
with his by far the most important thing.

Speaker 3 (48:14):
Let me jump in real quick and provide the data
because we all know that even though he got better
defensively last year made the All Star team for the
first time, offensively was a step back for relative year
three when he shot almost fifty four percent from the field.
Last year he was below fifty percent, forty nine point
six and a lot of that was the decline in
two point shooting fifty six point seven percent in your three,

(48:35):
fifty one point nine percent last year, so basically dropped
from fifty seven percent to fifty two.

Speaker 2 (48:41):
On two pointers.

Speaker 3 (48:42):
In EuroBasket a pretty big example, one hundred and nine
shots over those nine games Turkey went eight and one.
He shot fifty nine point six percent on twos. And
there's a lot of physicality. I'm sure some will argue
that the athleticism isn't quite what it is in the NBA. Maybe,
but there's still a lot of size and there's even
more physicality. So to shoot fifty nine point six percent

(49:02):
just short of sixty percent on twos for a guy
who was below fifty two percent in the NBA, and
that's a pretty decent sample, you know, with threes, I
know we want to blaeve he's a three point shooter,
and he did shoot thirty two percent from behind the arc,
which is a lot better obviously than the twenty three
or whatever it was. The NBA level last year. Okay,
that was just twenty two shots, but one hundred and

(49:23):
nine two point attempts made sixty five of those almost
sixty percent. That's pretty real data. And so the thing
that he said he was going to work on, which
was his touch, that seems to be back. Also, we
should highlight the free throws, by the way, when forty
three to fifty seven above seventy five percent from the line,
that's a big bump from sixty nine percent the last
two years. So the two things we heard about from

(49:45):
Strangoon when we last talked to him in Houston. He
wanted to get better I mean finishing across the board,
his touch. Also the free throws. That's exactly where there
was a clear bump in EuroBasket. And so to me,
those are clear, real positives to take out of it.

Speaker 4 (50:00):
Yeah, it's a he said, there's not as much as polticism,
but defending a post big it's not really about athleticism.
It's it's about strength, and it's about you know, having
a low center of gravity and and just being you know,

(50:21):
a smart played and not falling for fakes. Like I
would say, on average post defense in in EuroBasket, probably
better than in the NBA, except for your obviously you know,
weak side shot blocking and stuff like that. Obviously you
don't get that in EuroBasket. But he's having to finish
through contact a lot more, which I think it's a
lot is a lot more telling of his touch than

(50:42):
it is than athleticism and high flying stuff, which leaves
me to my second point, which is he looks a
lot more fluid, at least offensively with his handle and
just his overall of meticism and and he already looked
better last year compared to the year before, but this
year he looks like a Jumbles sized way in his movement.
He's you know, dunking off the dribble with ease, like

(51:05):
he doesn't need the entire wind up that he needed,
you know, the clear path that he needed in previous years.
Like he can dunk from situations that he was not
able to dunk previously, which will also help his finishing.
And obviously the handles better, he's clearly more comfortable. He's
clearly shifts here. And I will push back. I do

(51:27):
believe the shooting is real. Well really, it's probably not.
It is probably not the word. I think the shooting's
clearly improved as far as how fully it is and
as far as how comfortable he was just pulling up
because he did that. He would he would have the
ball for handoffs and he would pull up because he
was wide open, and it wasn't You could say that

(51:47):
that's because he was in a team with worse talent
than he has in the NBA, but I don't feel
like that's the case, especially once you get deep into
tournament play, like you don't want to waste possessions. And
his thirty two percent mark is thanked by some bad shots,
namely the last attempt at the game winner in the finals,

(52:09):
like two three shots, think that sample completely, And he
did take two or three over the entire tournament, like
just you know, shots that he would not be taking
in the NBA, and and well they would probably nah,
But he didn't take any half court heaths. So I'm
not gonna pull the the new rules on that data. Yeah,

(52:30):
but I do think that the shooting is a lot
realer than than it used to be, just because of
how comfortable he is shooting it. It's not you know
that there's a good difference between the guy we saw
last year and the guy were and the guy we
saw it in euro Basket. Hopefully it translates, and I
think it will, but I do think that he has
taken down lead to you know, the defensively plash year

(52:50):
was incredible and if he if if that main aims
and I don't see any reason why it wouldn't because
he wild see him springer Now, if you get that
type of impact, he he had superstar impact at Eurobots.
He was, in my opinion, the best player in the
entire tournament. And Woka Damchi was there in bawling or
in market and was then in bawling.

Speaker 2 (53:10):
Yoki was there in bawling.

Speaker 4 (53:12):
Then this thrower I guess was there in bawling. So yeah,
I think he might like I think there's a discussion
to be had if this translates, And I know I'm
known for being hyperbolic, but I think he showed the
type of stuff and the type of gravity very number
one option on our championship team bricks and having that

(53:33):
was a defense that he showed last year can make
massive improvement as far as how that translates to the rockets.
While it will depend on how other guys move and
how and what space he gets but with Kadi there,
I think the space that there should be more space
for him, and I do think that there's a lot
of greatest stuff that they can do together, although I'm

(53:54):
not completely sold if that avenue will be explored both
because and I guess we can transition into Kat's role
with Houston, I'm not sure how much of that that
there will be because of Katie's comments about fitting in,
because of the fact that they haven't really practiced together

(54:15):
up to this point. There's no chemistry built at least
for year one up to this point, and because I'm
just not here our coaching stuff as the creativity to
kind of get creative and the creativity to get creative,
you know, and how to get those two involved in
the same actions.

Speaker 2 (54:33):
Yeah, that's a fair critique until they do it.

Speaker 3 (54:34):
I mean, it's a little bit of a tricken or
the egg thing when people talk about the offensive issues
of a year ago. I mean, there's right to least
some questions of the coaching staff, But then they can
point out, well, you didn't have the personnel, So which
is it? Is it the staff is it the lack
of personnel is a little bit of both. I guess
we'll find out this year, because they certainly have the
talent now that they did not this time a year ago.

(54:54):
To clarify what I was saying on shouldn't hob, I
think some of that got back down in semantics. I
wasn't necessarily saying the offense would dramatically change in terms
of how it functions now. Potentially it could if you're
running Kevin, Amin and Dorian all alongside Shangoon. What I
really meant was that his role, his usage rate would
potentially be higher, at least at the start of the

(55:16):
year than it ever has been before. That's what I meant.
Will they fully lead into the whole you know, off
ball movement and cutting from not just a men but
the other four players, almost all of them. I don't
know about that. Your skepticism there is completely fair. But
I do think based on what we've seen, based on
the overall tread lines, based on Jala not being.

Speaker 2 (55:39):
Here, I think he'll get more touches.

Speaker 3 (55:41):
I think we'll see a more aggressive, more assertive Alpha
and Shogoon.

Speaker 2 (55:45):
To start this year than we ever had before.

Speaker 3 (55:48):
I guess that's where I was going with my commentary
and how it ties into Kevin Durant. As we wind
down the pod, I actually think, you know, I mentioned
Kevin wanting to sort of blend in we his words,
I could see it actually being around the holidays that
Shoinoon might hit a little bit of a wall, because

(56:09):
as good as his conditioning is to go through what
he did this offseason for the Turkish national team, and
it's not just euro Basket, it was also all the
training before that, they had some friendlies. That's a lot
to expect of anyone that plays eighty plus NBA games,
And now the Rockets do have some death of this
position with Steven Adams and Clint Capella. But beyond just

(56:33):
perhaps dialing down Shongoon's minutes a little bit, I could
also see Shongoon coming out of the gates really strong,
but then midway through the year, you know, he's not
gonna fall off a cliff, but there might be a
little bit of fatigue, and I could see that being
the point where they lean even more into Kevin us

(56:54):
the start of the year to sort of get his
feet underneath him. He doesn't want to take away from
the strengths of a team that was number two in
the West last season and then midway through, when Shingoon,
because of his unique offseason, might be getting a little
bit worn down. Maybe that's when you lean a bit
more into Kevin. Maybe a men's taking more leaps by

(57:14):
that point, and then you know, out of the All
Star break, when you're getting ready for the playoffs, is
when Shingoon gets a second win or maybe third win
in his case, and hopefully you're all in peak form
heading to the playoffs. I think this is me totally guessing,
but just based on the four that Shingoon is in now,
the fact that Kevin is new to the team, it
would not shock me if Shoon is the guy or

(57:37):
I don't want to say the guy on a team
with Kevin's ran on it, because I mean, he's a
top fifteen player of all time. But I could see
Shinoon being a little more leaned on to start the
year and then Kevin gradually taking that on as you
get closer to Thanksgiving and Christmas in that period where
Shingoon might get worn down. That's sort of my thoughts
on the general arc of the season. Power is that

(58:00):
sense to you? And I guess, how do you see
Kevin fitting into this? Based on his comments of you know,
wanting to blend in, and you may basically saying the
same thing that he wants to fill in the gaps.

Speaker 4 (58:11):
Yeah, I guess it depends on what type of what
type of places we're running for him, because there wasn't
a lot of isoing from the perimeter from the team
last season, and that's Kd's bread and butter, and so
it's kind of hard Whare to just fit in. But
it does make sense because if you give the ball
to Shingun very early on that eventually he gets tired out,

(58:33):
and even more so because feeding the ball to Shanegun
is more physically like energy consuming than it is to
just give the ball to KD on the perimeter. And
so it would make sense to first, when teams fresh
like you, you force it through Shinggun more and then
you'll go to KD later on because it's just easier
to go to the perimeter players hell, seven foot guard

(58:55):
on the perimeter than it is to go to Shane Gun.
But all in all, I think we shouldn't read and
I'm not saying you are, but we shouldn't read too
much into that quote and specific.

Speaker 2 (59:08):
We're just doing it because it's all we have.

Speaker 4 (59:09):
But yeah, exactly exactly, just because you know, these guys
haven't even mean together, they haven't practiced together yet, and
so and Kad is probably the most plug and play
guy you've ever seen in basketball ever, and so him
filling in the gap can literally mean anything he can.
It can mean that we're giving the ball to Chinggo
and he's spotting up. It cande that we're giving the

(59:31):
ball to Changun and the post them and we're or
we're having Chang on space for him. It can mean that,
it can mean that we're just giving him the ball
and letting him go like Ching. Kad fitting in can
mean one of a thousand things, and I guess it
will also depend on the type of basketball team that
we are. Base Wise, we have Kad instead of Jail

(59:54):
and Green, you probably have a decrease in pace. Although
KD is not a slow guy at all, like he
can up and down the court, that's not the question here.
But Jaalen Green is someone who since he can fully
do it on the half court, he took every opportunity
could he could get get on the break, And so
that is going to be a difference as well. And

(01:00:17):
how much we play the double big lineup might be
a thing as well. Like if we play the double
big line up a lot, I would guess using using KD,
it's probably using more KD is probably more likely. Although
you know, if it is Steven as the other big,
she can Stephen have, you know, really good chemistry making
space for each other. And there is an argument that

(01:00:38):
I think this is and a Red Nason vlog on
Twitter brought this up, and I think it's a really
interesting point, and I think it's going to be a
discussion at some point in the season, depending on how
the season goes. That you made and this isn't exactly
the point that he made, but that this is what
I the conclusion I came to based on the bothes
that he made. You might start getting diminiscing returns from

(01:01:02):
playing double big, at least offensive rebounding wise. Is you
have KD and you're making more shouts, there's less misses
for it to rebound, then you might not really need
to play double big as much. I know that little
big was fine and it was sound defensively, but something matchups,
you certainly would rather go with a smaller lineup. As

(01:01:22):
far as gotting the brim that it goes, and to.

Speaker 2 (01:01:25):
Take it full circle to where we let off the pod.

Speaker 3 (01:01:27):
I think that's where people forget about the double big
last season. They did it because they didn't trust baking
it offense any other way against the Golden State Warriors
in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (01:01:37):
That's why they did it so much.

Speaker 3 (01:01:39):
It was a defensive move and that they didn't trust
any of their other options. So it was just, you know,
a break class in case of emergency. It wasn't necessarily
proactive that we think this is optimal strategy, we think
this is the way offense should run. No, it was
we don't trust our ability to score playing the normal way,
so this is gonna give us a chance. Give them

(01:02:00):
a chance. They got them Game seven, and they were
within three points the second a half of Game seven,
even with so many other things going wrong, namely Jalen Green. Well,
now you have Kevin Durant, so the entire calculus changes.
You're not starting from that weaken position, and I guess again,
to bring it full circle. Everything they chose and the
home stretch of last year was based on the implicit

(01:02:20):
understanding that they were a very limited offensive team, especially
the half court. So how can we mitigate that That's
not necessarily the case with Kevin Durant, so that the
entire thinking is different.

Speaker 4 (01:02:31):
Yeah, if you're like, like, if you are a team
that makes forty percent of their shots and with double
big or probably worse offensively, like, okay, offensive rating is
going to take into account affect that you're grabbing out
of offensive rebound and getting easy points off of that.
So let's forget about that. Let's talk about, you know,

(01:02:52):
the percentage of times that and the possession of the
results in the score. If in that you are a
forty team throw out possessions that come up offensive rebounds
in total from both sides. On one side, you have
a team that is you know, in normal lineup should
sporty percent from the field, and in a double big

(01:03:14):
lineup taking away offensive rebounds should thirty five. And then
you have another team. But even you have this year
with that, let's call it on normal half court possessions
scores forty five percent of the time excluding offensive rebounds.
Now you have much less of an incentive to go

(01:03:34):
back to the thirty five percent double big lineup in
normal possessions because you know the gap is larger you're
not creating as many misses to you know, exert that
offensive rebounding advantage, which works with Katie on the court,
but also makes it more potent in the fact that
you can now use it when KD is not on

(01:03:56):
the court, when the offense is going to bog down,
and it can be a something that you buy design
run with your bench units. For example, like you could
optimize both sides. You could run your best offensive line
up with the Starbush and then your bend you know
is going to be terrible offensively put you lean into
the into the double big line up, which you know

(01:04:18):
will give you an edge because you have Steven Steven Adams,
which is specifically a guy that's great in that in
that secuation, and so you get the best of both
worlds instead of kind of diluting down both sides in
which you run a little bit of double bit with
KD and you're taking a little bit away from your
offensive upside and obviously and obviously getting a little bit

(01:04:39):
of those rebounds, like you can minimize it a lot,
I think, and I hope that they eventually settle into
that strategy because like it or not, and I don't know,
some pessimistic, but the bench units or whatever minutes reachap
or has to play are likely going to not go
very well. And so if you can and given that

(01:05:01):
extra boost of having him play with a double B vinyl,
but especially because he would be a guy that would
benefit from all the screening, I think it's one of
the biggest advantages that we have going into this season
is that because Shingun is making under max money, because
Jabari is still on his Luki deal for this season,

(01:05:23):
Tory the same thing A man founds them the same
thing we have, Like we don't necessarily have a super
team because of how we have a lot of stars.
And I'm not even talking about that. It's not about
us having you know, twelve players who can leterate play minutes.
I'm talking about how diverse the skill sets are amongst

(01:05:46):
the players.

Speaker 2 (01:05:46):
That we have.

Speaker 4 (01:05:47):
And you can say that we have a lot of wings,
but they're all different wings, and we have a lot
of tools we can think like, instead of looking at
this team as Fred van vliet Reed shepherds ten wings
and Alpron Shingun and two other bigs, look at this way.
You have LPN Shingoon as the stars and then you
have two types of point guards frevan Vliet and a

(01:06:09):
Men Pompton, brutally different, brutally different tools. And then you
have different types of wings. You have the lengthy shooter
Devoris Smith well also to play small ball five as well,
you have the more aggressive on ball defense if you're
trying to generate or no versi if you're trying to
get offensive rebounding in Tari, and you have your typical

(01:06:31):
three and d you know, good shooter, good defender, can't
really do much else in in Donna Phany Smith. And
then in your bigs you also have not as much
so as before, but still waf threat. In Quincapela you
have the best offensive rebounder and screener in the league,
Steven Adams.

Speaker 5 (01:06:50):
And then you have obviously outside of Singoon, but then
you have Shingon as Shan Hub as a post hub type,
and then you will as far as the biggest goes,
you can swap Jabari into it as well.

Speaker 4 (01:07:03):
You have a switch five as well, a switch spacing
small wall five as well, which isn't really small because
the body is six for eleven, but still you can
go small like you can play the most diverse amount
of play styles of any roster in the league. Everybody
has their system. The Rockets can play any system, and

(01:07:24):
it's about finding and I think they already and I
can pretty much predict what those systems will be. But
they already know they have a gem in the in
the double big lineup, so you can maximize that off
the bench when you don't have KDE and then I'm
guessing the next best lineup will probably be all of
the offensive pieces in there. Basically, you play, you play Freddie,

(01:07:47):
play a man, you play KD, you play one of
the wings, and you play Shang and you get the
best of their output that she possibly can and that's
athing that the killing into as well. They also can
play full not small ball, but full switchable ball, because
these guys are not small and you go a men Thompson,
Donald Finnish Smith, KD, Tarry Yeason, Jeffery Smith Junior and

(01:08:12):
you don't have a big and you don't have anybody
under six set and you can play and there's sift
teams in which that's going to be a real weapon,
kind of like the Warriors de lineup. But well, a
man is not six with two and this is just
off the top of my head. So they have not
even talking about depth. They have the most optionality for

(01:08:33):
a coach any of anything in the league has.

Speaker 2 (01:08:36):
So that's exactly what he said in his quote, by
the way.

Speaker 4 (01:08:39):
So yeah, and it's about finding which of these lineups
are optimal and leaning into them as much or maximizing
the amount of time you are in those specific lineups.
And what that tells me is that you should mix
them together. You shouldn't have double big with KD and
you know whatever, it maybe you shouldn't leaning to the

(01:09:01):
gimmick one hundred percent get the most out of each
of these options are rather than trying to mix them
together and really not having kind of the full event
that you could take out of having so many options,
because once one's just start trying to mix and match them, well,
now it's just the normal basketball team. There's no edge.

(01:09:22):
If you're gonna play a small point guard, a shooting guard,
two wings, and a big. I think it's just a
normal basketball team again, right, And you can still win
that way. But I think there's a real edge to
be had from leaning into these gimmicks. I guess which
they are. On gimmicks, they are legit strategies, but I
think gimmicks is a better word too to get the
point of gross.

Speaker 3 (01:09:43):
Yeah, and to bring it full circle, maybe the Reaed
Shepherd conundrum, the fact that he's the one guy that
isn't going to be playing solely because of Mirrit, maybe
that makes all the more sense to tilt your rotations
a little bit to where he has the most gimmicky
help with the double bigs, maybe with Shabari as a

(01:10:07):
little bit of a shot creator against backups. I think
that's what you're getting at, right, That's the one potential weakness,
and so maybe sack the deck a little bit with
the gimmicks to where you mitigate that weakness.

Speaker 4 (01:10:17):
Yes, what I'm saying is you play the starting lineup
with Fredaman Kadi, Darrian, Junie Smith, Shngun, and then your
bench is triple big lineup, almost quadruple big lineup. You
play Read sorry Gabari at the three, Adams Shngun.

Speaker 3 (01:10:34):
And it also minimizes the importance of Read's lack of
size and physicality on defense.

Speaker 4 (01:10:40):
It does, and it makes it so like double big
was great, Triple big with Jabari at the three was
even better. I agree, And so and this is just
something that we were cle clemoring furthering the playoff run.
And so it also weans into the fact that starting
Darian Phinnie Smith and venting Jabari helps even more because
if you're gonna run double big, that three guy being

(01:11:04):
someone that can get his own shot helps as well,
especially because if you're playing Jehoi at the three, he's
gonna have the high eventy over ninety nine percent of
the league. So yeah, then that's what I That's what I.
It's not necessarily that I want them to do this
from the rip, but I think that's something that they
should explore, like going full on double big will reach
Shepherd and if it doesn't happen, go full on a
little bit with aeron holiday because you know the offense

(01:11:28):
is going to stay. But we saw last year that
that's a recipe for success. The offense thinks, but you
get a word the rebounds you're gonna have, You're gonna
have that on steroids because these guys are all are
all going to be fresh because they're not gonna play
as many minutes. And then on the on the the
main squad, I guess you have you know an offense
date I think we'll be able to to run with
the best of them, and the team that's going still

(01:11:49):
be better defensibly with them and Thompson improved Chenggoon kd
and Don Finnie Smith, And we'll see how bretn with
books defensively this season. Who knows like he's getting to
that age where we leap light be sure.

Speaker 3 (01:12:02):
Although that was another little thing that I May said
that he encouraged Fred, based on his own NBA experience,
to lose a little bit of weight so that he
would hold up. Now, this was primarily in the context
of avoiding injury, but I think also defensive mobility. I
May was sort of hinting at he thought Fred was
a little too heavy last year and that might have
contributed obviously to the injury, but also to a little

(01:12:23):
bit of reduced mobility defensively. So perhaps a lighter Fred,
which I May says is something he's been working on
this offseason, is something we'll see pay dividends defensively this season.
Just a little thing to watch out for anyway, I'll
I'll wrap it here because I intended this to be
under an hour. Now, at about an hour and fifteen
minutes or so, but guys, you know, me and Paulo,

(01:12:43):
that's what we do. The bottom line, I think with
that starting line, I fit speaks for itself. That was
a weakness last year. But with Kevin, I mean you
can sort of alternate throughout the year in terms of
who does the heavy lifting between Kevin Chagood and AMN
Tops and hopefully a man is able to get to
that next level.

Speaker 2 (01:12:58):
But it's an abundance of riches there. It comes down
to more.

Speaker 3 (01:13:03):
I'm sort of in an agreement with you, Polo, and
that you want to really use the gimmicks, the creative
stuff to mitigate the weaknesses that you might have off
the bench, especially the Reed Shepherd factor if you're going
to be trying to develop him. And so that's where
I think the double big, the triple big, with the
Z the screening factor of Stevid Adams, that's where that
could really be interesting. I was looking at the kad

(01:13:23):
thing more for a macro perspective, talking about you know,
Shingoon at EuroBasket and Katie wanting to blund in. But yeah,
to start the year, I mean that looking at it
for a micro perspective, Yeah, that's the optimal time to
start experimenting and then hopefully by the middle part of
the year, when everybody is you know, in rhythm and
comfortable with you know, the hierarchy and this new look team,

(01:13:43):
then you know you can basically go based on merrit
to start the year. That's the time to experiment, to evaluate,
and yeah, I'm an agreement with you. The trouble big
with Red Shepherd off the bench. On paper, at least
that makes the most sense. Of course, the Brockets will
experiment in training camp and in the prec I think
Emai has been a guy who tends to lead on
his starters a little bit more his rotation players in

(01:14:05):
the preseason. I expect that to be the case this year,
starting October sixth, the home preseason opener against Atlanta, which
is just a little under two and a half weeks away.
It is almost here. Anyway, with that, we'll put a
bow on this episode for Paolo alps I Bendubo's We'll
be back in probably a week and a half reacting
the media day and the opening training camp. The first

(01:14:25):
official comments to Kevin Durant, two members of the Houston media.
Of course, we'll love reaction to that. If you want
more content and the interron. The best place kitdit is
on social media, where you can follow Polo at Palo
Alt's NBA and me at Bendubo's on your platform of choice.

Speaker 2 (01:14:39):
Also this podcast, The Logger Line.

Speaker 3 (01:14:41):
Just search for wre you listening to your podcast Spotify, YouTube, Apple, Subscribe.

Speaker 2 (01:14:45):
With pods review.

Speaker 3 (01:14:45):
That's how we can keep looking good to our friends,
partners and sponsors and keep this program running as one
of the most active podcasts covering Houston Rockets basketball, a
team that should be a championship contender this season. Boys,
that feel good to say. Anyway, with that, I'll journ
for tonight for I'm then Thanks as always to you
for listening, and please do Maxsium for more new episodes
of The Locker Line

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Fifth starter debate, lineup optimization, Alperen Sengun dazzles at EuroBasket

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist

All Episodes

Fifth starter debate, lineup optimization, Alperen Sengun dazzles at EuroBasket

Stuff You Should Know