Rockets injury updates and a case for starting Reed Sheppard

With All-Star forward Kevin Durant missing two games for personal reasons, second-year guard Reed Sheppard is in line for an expanded role with the Rockets (10-4), and potentially even a starting assignment. 

Featuring Ben DuBose and Paulo Alves, Monday’s episode breaks down all the implications of Sheppard’s recent rise. Other topics include insight on Houston’s close loss to Denver; slightly underwhelming efficiency numbers from Durant; and the updated injury outlooks for Tari Eason (oblique) and Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle).

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Rockets fans, Welcome to the Rockets Launch Pod, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven
Red Nation. Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready. The Rockets Launch
Pod starts now.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Welcome Abourn, benj you both.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
Here, Pallo Alves there, Welcome back to the Rockets Launch Pod,
presented by Clutch Fans and with support from Sports Talk
seven ninety, official flagship radio station of your Houston Rockets.
It's now Monday, the twenty fourth of November. Thanksgiving is
coming up later this week. As always, we're very appreciative
of you are loyal listeners. As for the Rockets, we're
appreciative of them as well. They are now ten and

(01:09):
four on the season, winners of ten of their last
twelve games. However, the Rockets do and are on a
bit of a downer losing that NBA Cup game to
the Nuggets on Friday night. Very good game against a
fellow contender, so there's no shame in losing it, but
it does sting because it almost certainly eliminates the Rockets
from knockout round contention. Rockets now one and two in

(01:31):
Cup play, so in contrast to last year when the
Rockets did advance to Las Vegas in the semifinals. That
probably will not be happening this year. However, with Kevin
Durant and all prinching Goon leading the way, the Rockets
in twenty five to twenty six clearly have higher goals
and they're focused internally on what they hope is a
long playoff run next spring. Anyway, we have very high

(01:52):
hopes for the season as a whole, but this week
could be a little tricky because news broke late Sunday
that Kevin Durant will miss the next two games at
Phoenix tonight and at Golden State on Wednesday, tending to
a family matter. Obviously, we wish Katie the best, and
the expectation is for him to be back when the
Rockets resume play on Sunday in Utah, the thirtieth of November.

(02:14):
The Rockets play Wednesday night at Golden State and then
don't play again until the following Sunday against the Jazz.
We have a little bit of a nice three to
four day break over the Thanksgiving holiday. Anyway, the talking
point for today is gonna be Reed Shepherd. We're going
to talk about him regardless, because he's been incredible these

(02:35):
last few weeks for the season overall. Now, he's actually
top ten in the league in box plus minus, which
it's not the only advanced metric that's out there, but
it's a pretty good one. And if you're top ten
in the league, obviously you're doing a lot of things right.
He's shooting almost sixty six percent, that's his true shooting
clip above fifty percent overall, forty nine percent from three

(02:55):
just ridiculously good numbers in just his second season at
twenty one years old, So there's a lot to discuss.
He was the reason you were close against Denver. All
Parnching Goon and Kevin Durant combined for just twenty seven
points on sub forty percent shooting, Reid put up twenty
seven on his own, led the Rockets, and after falling
behind early in the game, he nearly willed you back.

(03:18):
In fact, he did will you to the lead, and
unfortunately the Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray,
just made a few more plays down the stretch. But
we're gonna talk about Reid even more now because in
the aftermath of not having KD the next couple of games,
I don't know about you, Polo but I think it's
almost inevitable that Reid starts the last couple of games

(03:39):
they've run with the double Big of all prinsing Goon
and Steven Adams. Starting before that, they had gone about
ten games with Josha Kogi and not Steven Adams. But
I can't see the Rockets starting both Steven and Josh
because I think the floor spacing if you have a
lineup with the double Big Amen Thompson and Joshakoge, that

(03:59):
just wouldn't be fear to all per inchin Doon. It
would not be reasonable, And so I just don't see
doing both Steven and Josh as a replacement for Kevin Durant.
With how the Rockets offense, which is still ranked number
one in the NBA, how it typically functions, I think
you want someone with more shooting, ideally some playmaking as well.
They could turn to Aaron Holliday, who is a very

(04:21):
good shooter and at least somewhat of a playmaker. Just
ask the Cavaliers after Aaron Holliday closed them out the
other night. But I think Reid is clearly ahead in
the hierarchy. He has been all season long. His numbers
speak for themselves, and the Rockets have clearly flirted with
the idea going back to training camp in the preseason.
When fred than Fleet first got hurt in late September,

(04:42):
they flirted with the idea of starting Reed Shepperd. They
did start him out of the half against the Nuggets.
It's not a seamless fit. They will have to obviously
try and mitigate his weaknesses on defense with regards to
size and physicality. Offensively, will he be able to get
the touches and the shot attempts with the starters that

(05:04):
he has as the sixth man leading those bench units.
That's a ballid concern. The second halfkins the Nuggets, I
didn't think it ran quite as smoothly as it did
in the first half the Rockets offense, that is, when
Reid was playing alongside the starters as opposed to the
bench unit, when you could have Stephen Adams setting those
picks and really run a lot more through Reid and
get him going. So it's not to say that it'll

(05:26):
be smooth sailing, and it's not to say that it's
an automatic decision because Aaron Holliday is a very good player,
and there is a world where maybe they start Aaron
and say we just want to keep you in this
role where you're excelling. You can anchor our bench units
from an offensive perspective, and so on and so forth.
But I think the overwhelmingly likely scenario reads ahead of
Aaron in the hierarchy anyway, he's been the better player.

(05:49):
When you're losing KD, you lose not just the scoring
KD as your leading scorer, but also the playmaking. I
think they start read they move them into a wing role.
We see if maybe that helps a man score more
efficiently when he's used more off ball, and we'll see
what happens when KG rejoined the team in Utah. Maybe
Reid continues to start, but at least for this week,

(06:10):
my money's on Reed starting. I have not heard that yet,
but to me, it seems to make the most sense.
So pow Well going into tonight's game in Phoenix, is
that your expectation for what ema Udoka is going to do?

Speaker 4 (06:21):
I think at some point we're just kind of running
out of good players to start. But I guess since
you made the case for him starting in and I
think it's the most likely scenario. I do just think
for me, from a rotation management standpoint. Right, Now, out
of your good players, three of them are now centers, right,
so you're gonna have to lean into the bull big well,
especially because you don't really have anyone else unless you

(06:44):
play EVFJF green On, one of the one of the
D League guys. So playing devils that could write if
we were not to start read how would the lineups
work best? And you made have a very valid point about,
you know, not having Shanghun play with Steven Adams and
Josha Kogi. But in theory, could you not play so

(07:07):
you could play a man where I think I'm still
missing No, I'm not missing a starter. Yeah you could.
You could, Yeah you could. You could theoretically. What I'm
saying is you could theoretically go a man Or again
kind of reversed. Actually Aaron Holiday, a man Jabari, Steven
Adams and an Apron and the spacing would be kind

(07:29):
of the same, and you wouldn't have a second unit
as the void of offensive talent as you as you
will have if you start reach Hapard because if you do,
like let's be honest, on ball reads better than Aaron Holiday.
What what Aaron Holliday has over Reachabard probably the defense
and not much else, but I think with the boy
in his hand Street it's probably better. So I think

(07:50):
that's there's an argument to be made that since you
have to manage having two bigs on the floor basically
at all times, and you really don't want to have
Steven Adams and Quinn Capella at the same time, that
you might want to start Adams forcefully just to manage that,
because otherwise, if Queinn Cappella is not going to play
more minutes as a result of the injuries, then you're

(08:11):
gonna have to play the KD Babies. And or Isah
Crawford r JF. Green, who we don't really know if
he's you know, if he's NBA ready I guess from
a physical standpoint, or if he's just you know, kind
of like you don't as well, just a qualified advantage
a qualified coach. At this point, I'm not even sure
if I would agree that starting reads the best off.

(08:31):
I was playing Devil's advocate, but as I talked myself
into it, it might actually be better to bring him
off the band, or if you're gonna start them just
for the sake of you know, Okay, you're starting because
of how well you're playing, and in that being a
reward from a from a psychological standpoint, if you do that,
you're gonna have to sub him out really early. Otherwise
they're gonna really struggle with your bend unit unless you're

(08:54):
making the argument that you just want to you want
your starters to be so good that you do then
for those with Yogas, for example, where they're clearly a
lot worse without Yogas on the floor, but they are
so much better with him on the floor that it
kind of makes up for it.

Speaker 3 (09:09):
Let me jump in real quick. You can start both
Steven Adams and Read Shepherd. In fact, that would be
my bet. I think they'll line up with Reid a Men, Jabari,
Steven and LP. And you can also bring back Jady
Davison who's listed as questionable. He was in the G League,
but I'm sure they can fly him from Austin to
Phoenix in time for Monday Night's game, and so I

(09:32):
could see Jad Davison being the smartplug off the bench,
and then you start reading Stephen. Both keep Joshakogi in
that role that he's been in off the bench, and
if he's shooting the ball. Well, obviously you can scale
up his minutes, but I think there is a way
that you can start reading Stephen both and in fact,
that's what I think they will do.

Speaker 4 (09:51):
Yeah, I think I think you can. But I mean
it's also the same argument of how does that Benson
it survive with with a backward of Jay Davison in
Aaron Holiday and lesson.

Speaker 3 (10:02):
Just the legend Baron Holiday.

Speaker 4 (10:04):
Oh, I thought you were about get mad at me
about Dady Nigson.

Speaker 3 (10:07):
No, this is Aaron Holliday's week after what he did
against the Cavaliers. Look as frustrating as that lost to
Denver was. It's easy to say it's one out of
baby two, you won ten of twelve because you're coming
off another win on the road against a really good
team immediately before that. If not for Aaron Holliday rescuing
that game, and let's say the Rockets had blown that

(10:29):
twenty two point second half lead and then lost to
Denver game, I think the tone of this pod would
be very different. So for this week we have to
sort of bow to Aaron Holliday and say, thank you man.
You've you've kept the vibes very positive for the time
being right.

Speaker 4 (10:42):
But the way Aaron Holliday won is that game against
the Cavs was spotting up for other creators. It wasn't
really creating off the bounds himself.

Speaker 3 (10:53):
So a little bit of that, but mostly yeah, mostly.

Speaker 4 (10:57):
Yeah, it's the fact that he can just spot up
like three steps behind the line and just have crazy
spacing like that. And if that's gonna be, if that's
his best role, then perhaps he's better starting with opurnching gun,
which we'd mean to another thing that is another question
that's about that relates to the lineups. I think it's
going to be really interesting to see how KD not

(11:17):
being that effect alburn chingun is what we've seen from
him this year a result of a developmental leap, or
is the result of the increased spacing because Katie is
there and the attention that kid draws. Right, how I'll
be response And obviously it's always going to be a
small sample side, so you won't be able to make
definitive or take definitive conclusions out of it. But because

(11:39):
the rockets are going to have to lean really heavily
un Shane dun and what will we see like will
we go back to a little bit of about it
was last season where there's just no space at all,
and he's had when we were having to be really
greedy team, and he's having to throw up shots that
sometimes out of the past because it didn't can't get
any better? Or is he just you know, a completely

(12:00):
diferent player. It is the mid range that he's been
shooting this season, those shot puts are they is the
all the way back? Another chingun is then not that
Kavy isn't there to soak up a lot of the
attention as well, although I guess we could go with
the more optimistic route, which is Kav is not there,
but there's more space space for Reed to shine. And
can say I'm Singun will have that space anyway because

(12:24):
Reeb will channel his inner Cocaine Curry, even though I
think his better nickname is IRS, but nobody agrees with me.

Speaker 3 (12:31):
Well, another reason that I'm in favor of Reid is
look at the schedule coming out of these two games
this week. These are not going to be easy games.
The Suns have a winning record, even if I think
that's largely a product of a soft schedule and some
locked they overcame an eight point deficit with under a
minute left the other night against Minnesota, which you know,

(12:53):
give them credit for that, but is it sustainable and
they don't have Jalen Green. I don't know. I think
they're a better team than expect did, but I don't
think they're as good as a ten and six record
would have you believe. Now conversely, I don't think the
Warriors are as bad as a nine to nine record
as of Sunday would have you believe. So just ask
the Spurs and the two wins that Golden State had

(13:14):
at San Antonio with Wimby about that. So the bottom
line is these are not going to be easy games,
and so it's unfortunate that these are the two that
Katie has to miss. But then coming out of these
two games, this stretch next week starting Sunday, the thirtieth
might be the weakest that you play all year. You've

(13:34):
got a back to back in Utah, and then you've
got Sacramento and Phoenix at home. The Sun's still without
Jalen Green and Dallas on the road. So the Jazz twice,
the Kings, the Sun's the Mavericks by.

Speaker 4 (13:49):
Way, Well, kayln Green, do you mean that they are
stronger than usual or weak hunt shields.

Speaker 3 (13:54):
Come on, man, this is a Jalen Green friendly podcast.
I think he gets I think he gets the rough.
I was gonna say rough whistle, but I don't know
if whistle is the term for twitter. But I think
he's been put in places early in his NBA career,
especially in Houston where the on off numbers are not
always representative, and in Phoenix. To his credit, he only

(14:18):
played in one game. He was actually really good in
that game, So it's just unfortunate that he re entered
the hamstring and now he's probably out until twenty twenty
six at this point. Feel terrible for Jalen, but no
that Phoenix team. Devin Booker is a really good player,
but I don't think the collective talent now Dylan Brooks
revenge games. I do expect Dylan to bring his best effort,

(14:40):
although you never know, he might also get himself tossed,
because we know sometimes when Dylan comes in focus trying
to make a point, sometimes his point comes across a
little bit too strongly in the eyes and ears of
NBA officials. We've seen that some in the last couple
of years. But the point is go ahead.

Speaker 4 (14:55):
Tically, our best weapon against Phoenix the last few years
is actually being killed green if you remember correctly, He's
performed really well against Phoenix over over the last over
you know, the few years that he was here. I
can vividly remember one of his you know, him going
to do with Evin Booker. But yeah, sorry, sorry for
the second time.

Speaker 3 (15:21):
Well, the point that I was trying to get to.
These two games won't be easy, and I suspect you'll
actually see Dylan guarding Shoon. That would be my bet.
With Katie not playing, you could see Dylan shifting to
a role against Shingoon somewhat comparable to when we saw
the Rockets deploy Dylan against Wemby. Not that Shangoon and
Wemby are identical players, not even close to it. But

(15:42):
the idea of Dylan holding up in the post against
the star big man, we've seen that, and obviously Shinoon
like Wemby, where they do have some common traits is
in their ability to handle the ball play at different levels,
and that's where Dylan can shine, both being able to
depend on the perimeter but also being stronger than you
think inside. So we'll see how that goes. But The
point as far as Reid is that this schedule next week,

(16:05):
which does include the Suns one more time, but that
one's in Houston, it's pretty friendly. And so when you
worry about starting read, the concerns you have are obviously defensively,
teams are going to hunt him more, and to this point,
playing him off the bench it does help, and that
you know he's fresher, he's playing against backups, so he'll
get hunted more. But against weaker teams do they have

(16:26):
the talent to really hunt him on that end? And
then offensively there is an integration, like if Reed goes
from being option one to playing alongside Katie Shingoon and
a men, It's not easy. We saw that early in
the second half against the Nuggets when Denver went back
on top by double digits or close to it. It's
not as easy when you go to a lower spot

(16:48):
in the hierarchy, and there were parts of that third
quarter where it felt like they were using the rockets
that is, reach Shepherd the same way they use Joshua
Kogie and just stashing him in the quarter, which is
not maximizing the skill set. There are some growing pains
if you start read However, if you do it in
a part of the schedule where you're probably gonna win anyway,
it's easier to justify that. And that's what makes me

(17:12):
think they might start in this week. They might not
have a choice, and then if it goes well, you
could see them stick with it and say, hey, these
are games we're gonna be big favorites in. I'm guessing
those five games that I just listed, I'm guessing the
closest spread will probably be either Dallas on the road
or Phoenix at home, and the Rockets would still be
favored by seven or eight, I would guess. I know,

(17:33):
Sacramento beat Denver on Saturday night, but come on, that's
pretty fluky, and the Nuggets night tube it back to
back nowhere and Gordon, they're pretty gassed after putting everything
into that Rockets game. So there's a pretty big margin
for error, and so I could see this being the
time that the Rockets say, hey, let's experiment with read,
especially because you know in the macro the one concern
is too strong. But the one question I have about

(17:55):
this team, I know their ranked number one on offense,
but it comes down to do they have enough in
the half court, specifically against the Nuggets and the Thunder,
the two recent champions. They are the gold standard. You
are inherently the challenger, and to this point you're zeroing
too against those teams, and there's no shame in those losses,
especially because they're close. Yet there is still a ways

(18:17):
to go, and when you look at the rackets the
season as a whole, look, we did our player grades
our last full show, and we both had all for
in Shangoon as an a and I think he's only
built on that since he's been phenomenal the Denver game excluded,
which I think is pretty clearly a one off. Kevin
Durant very good POWLO you mentioned in Tangible's leadership off
the charts, but the offensive numbers, he's at about forty

(18:40):
eight percent overall shooting from He's at thirty six percent
from three, his true shooting is just below sixty one.
All of that is a little below the last couple
of years in Phoenix, not dramatically so. And he's still
your leading scorer at twenty five points per game on
a winning team. This is still very good efficiency in
the Grand Ski, but it's not quite as elite as

(19:02):
it's been and you can certainly point out small sample size.
He's one of the greatest players NBA history. The peaks
have certainly been there. Just look to the Orlando game
this time a week ago. Now the counter, as Matt
Moore HP Basketball points out all the time on Twitter,
age doesn't rob you of your ceiling. It robs you
of your consistency. So there is the possibility that maybe

(19:25):
at thirty seven years old, Kevin isn't quite the same guy.
I'm not saying that for sure, and I'm certainly not
saying that he's washed, but it would not be unprecedented
by any means. If there's a little bit of slippage
from Kad on the offensive end of the court. And
if there is, and I acknowledge the sample is still small,
I'm just speaking with the fourteen games of data that
we have at this point. If there's some slippage and

(19:47):
the Rockets want to chase down eventually the Nuggets and
the Thunder, they're close, but clearly not there yet, as
evidenced by the O and two mark in those games.
They need to if kat doesn't get to you know,
the version of Katie that we've seen throughout most of
his career, then how can the Rockets overcome that? And
eventually there's you know, trades you can make because guys

(20:08):
become trade eligible once you get beyond December and January fifteenth.
But in terms of maximizing what you have, the two
guys that you can get more out of potentially on
the offensive end are Read Shepherd and the men Thompson
Read by expanding his role and a Men perhaps by
changing his role, using him a little bit more off
ball in hopes that that will make him more efficient
the way he was last year and finished better near

(20:30):
the rim. So because of that, it's not so much
of them saying I think Katie's not going to bounce back. No,
he very easily can. But what I'm saying is that
if you worry about Katie, and I'm not the only one.
There's a great line from Tom Ziller, a longtime NBA
media person now on Blue Sky. My brief review of
Nuggets Rockets is that if Jamal Murray maintains this level

(20:52):
and Aaron Gordon gets and stays healthy, Houston needs a
ton more juice from Katie on offense to compete in
the series. I think it's certainly relative to Friday night,
we was like five or fourteen for thirteen points. That's fair,
But I just think overall for the season, like the
highs have been there, but the the overall efficiency it's
still been very good, but not quite the insane KD

(21:13):
that we've seen the last few years. It could be
the sample they have had a bit of a rough
schedule of late, but you have to at least leave
your mind open to the idea. No, he's not washed,
he's not over the hill, but at thirty seven he
might fall off just a little bit. And if that's
the case, relative to the formula for contention, who's going
to pick up the slot? Read Shepherd and a Men

(21:33):
Thompson on an offense are the two guys internally if
you don't go externally, who have the most potential to
do that? And so, in my opinion, if if you
want to know what you have before that trade deadline window,
this might be the time not just for Reed but
for men as well to experiment with changing their roles

(21:53):
a little bit, scaling up in the case of Red
and seeing how it holds up in terms of the
efficiency the defense. How much of that translates to a
starting environment alongside other big guns. In the case of Amen,
does his efficiency bounce back if he plays a little
bit more off ball. I'm not saying I know the
answers to those questions, but if you have any concerns

(22:14):
at all about KD, it behooves you to find out
the answers before the trade deadline. So I don't think
this is something that ima Udoka is thinking that deeply about.
I think right now they're just trying to survive. As
you mentioned, they're without three rotation players rel it to expectations,
so I think right now they're just going game by game.
But I also think just from like a macro perspective,

(22:35):
that might tip the scales a little bit more, especially
in this period coming up with they don't have games
between Wednesday and Sunday, to where you think a little
bit and say, hmm, maybe this is the time, especially
with the schedule easing up, that I want to get
these data points on Read being used as a starter
and in different ways, so that going into the trade
deadline window, I have a better idea of what I

(22:57):
have in READ and as a result, what the team's
potential with him might can be. By the time you
get to the playoffs. So I guess, Paulo, what are
your thoughts on those angles as far as you know,
not just surviving in the short term, but also using
this as an opportunity to sort of see what you
have in read and whether he can, you know, pick
up that oppensive slack if you need it.

Speaker 4 (23:18):
It goes back to something I do agree with you,
and it goes back to something that I've been saying
for a few weeks, which is I don't think even
with Kad there, that the Rockets were maximizing their talents
to gain every single event, to get every single win,
game after the game, after gain. I said before, I
said before that starting a minut the one is not
exactly probably the best way to maximize the dolls right now.

(23:39):
I said before that we probably don't run enough kab
shingle actions that pign roll that we typically only use
late in games. I don't think we're max I didn't
think before that we were maximizing the amount of wins
the week would get. And I did think that a
part of it was that, well, let's get these guys
ready or when Bush comes to shelves. We need help
from some and other than Gange, then Katy and Shangun

(24:02):
that they are ready and they are further longer development
paths than they are gurlently right, and so I think
that plays a little bit into into what you're saying.
Beyond that, I do think that well, first of all,
addressing the part about Kad having a lower efficiency, he's
about three percent lower true shooting from what he has
been or from what he was last year and what
he has been for most of his career. For most players,

(24:25):
three percent true shooting takes you from a good player
to a below average player. With Kad, it takes you
from sixty four percent Throuugh shooting to sixty one percent.
Sixty one percent was you know, prime James hard this
to say that, first of all, I'm even I think
the symbol's too small, and I think part of it
with Kad, I don't think he's lost a step at all.

(24:48):
I think that it's mostly that teams are being allowed
to be more physical with him due to us not
having as good of a ball handler as they have
been early in his career. Right, he hasn't had to
deal with this physicality and because the Rockets themselves are
I think that plays pretty physical, more so last year
than this year, but still the other teams also allowed

(25:09):
to get away with a little bit more physicality, and
that just throws you up a little bits. It's expected
that once you go to a team that has that
type of culture, that a guy that drives off of
glump shots will have a little bit of a tougher
time getting the space to shoot them, even though KI
can always shoot them. Obviously, the way you the way
you card KAD, the way you card the guy like

(25:30):
Wemby is you you you crowd their space underneath, right,
So I do think that that is a part in it.
When talking about how to let's say this is KD
for the rest of the season, sixty percent through shooting,
still a lite's still very very elite. How do we
make up for that in a playoff series? I maintained

(25:51):
that what I what I had said earlier on this season,
the way this team gets better is not on offense.
It's on defense. And this is with KD being what
KAD as bad. Right, The way this team will eventually
turn into a team that can challenge OKC to an
even higher level in the det e that earlier in
the season is like being a better defensive team, and
by sharing, showing up defensive rotation, probably playing Clint Capella less,

(26:14):
you know, probably having defensive schemes that help on reachapter
a little bit more. We'll even one another late too much,
but more than me, more than anybody else, will have
those those answers to those questions as we move further along,
I don't think the way you make up for whatever
three percent to shooting Katy has less than he used

(26:34):
to than he used to have is on the offensive end,
because we are already so good on that end. I
know we're not a bad defensive team. We're still top ten,
and I know the league in the I guess my
r perception is a little bit warp because the league
in general is a lot better offensively this season than
he than it was last season. So even though our
defense looks a lot worse, we're actually still top seven.

(26:56):
I think last time I checked, we were seven. So
I do think that there's more kind of meat on
the bone defensively then that is offensively, because because I
think we are, we are like everybody on the team
is performing pretty besides them incumbs, and for the most part,
it's performing really well, really well, offensive, he's making really

(27:16):
good decisions with the ball, save for save for some
stretchers in games. So actually, don't think the way you
solve it is by figuring out how to be better off.
And so I think the way you solve it is
if you do need to goog grab a piece of
off the trade market, so be it. So maybe maybe
a guard that's better defense depending on the ball, I don't,
although I do think that they'll struggle to get one

(27:37):
for the resources that they're willing to give up. That's
going to be better than Aaron Holiday, who I think
is underrated on that side of the ball. But yeah,
if there's if there's edges to be gain, if there's
more meat on the bone to be picked, I do
think that that's on the defensive end.

Speaker 3 (27:51):
And well, let me jump in real quick on that.
What I was thinking offensively, where we could help you
is especially against the operational on teams like Denver, like
Oklahoma City, where it has gotten a little segment in
the fourth quarter. And that's why I'm looking a little
bit at this small drop inefficiency because even though it's nitpicking, well, yeah,

(28:12):
those are two games that playing against the best of
the best that you usually could have won, and one
or two shots going your way could make all the difference.
And so I think situationally in the half court, even
though the macro of the offense is fine, the micro
of those situations you might could use a little bit
more juice. And I think that's what Tom Zlaver was
talking about, they especially high leverage possessions. With that said,

(28:36):
where it's fair to question if this is the time
for Reed to become the permanent starter. Is that I
led you into this discussion by pointing out the week
schedule starting next week. Well, if you're playing these week teams,
that's not when you're gonna find out if Reid can
be the bump and those super high leverage situations against

(28:56):
teams like OKAC and Denver. So I guess that's the
counter is that on paper, yeah, there's more of a
buffer that you have to work with, But in terms
of can he help you in this type of sticky
half court situation that I've been describing, and can he
help him in as well, Well, you're not necessarily going
to find that out against the types of teams they'll
be playing. Maybe you can't. Well, I guess you can't

(29:17):
this week because you won't have him out there alongside KD.
So I guess you know that's the counter. And one
other point, as you were talking about how the Rockets
use read, I think you know he's improved across the
board as a player. You know, certainly the three point shooting,
but the handle, getting to the rim, the mid range.
I mean, he's just been fantastic for close to a

(29:37):
month now. But I do wonder if you start him
you lose the synergies with Steven Adams or you lose
some of them. Obviously you can stagger me the minutes
a little bit, but whoever is the fifth starter starts
alongside KD, Shingoon Amen and Jabbari. And so we've seen
throughout this year and especially against the Nuggets on Friday,

(29:58):
a lot of Reed's success he uses those screens that
Steven sets better than anyone else. So long term, to
be a star level player in the NBA, he's going
to have to figure out how to thrive outside of
the Steven Adams minutes. And to this point, I saw
Sat the other day his minutes alongside Shangud and Katie.
The lineups have been very positive to this point, albeit

(30:21):
in a very small sample, but to this point, at
twenty one years old, he might still need the Steven
Adams stimulus. So I'll turn things back over to you here, Paolo.
I just wanted to throw that in as high as
I am on reed starting, and I do think they
should and probably will explore it at least this week.
The Stephen part of the puzzle is something you have
to keep in the back of your mind as well.

Speaker 4 (30:41):
Yes, but at the same time might if you're looking
at overall line up data having read SAT but like
Steven Adams is a good defender, right, but having you
know someone who lives at this point, really he's still
you know, probably not a positive defender at his position.
He's gambling too much and he lives a little bit
too much of the highlight place. Stephen Adams is a

(31:01):
good defender, but you reach shepherd Steve Adams, you know,
point guard center combo with something that's pretty easy to exploit.
It's it's one of the one of the most gameicky,
you know, very immobile, even though Sven Adams is better
not in that than it was us. It is a
very immobile center and a small guard, right, So.

Speaker 3 (31:19):
You're saying I can boost the defense if you if
I read more in the non Stepen minutes to your
point on there being more left on the more meat
left on the bone on defense exactly.

Speaker 4 (31:28):
And then just to talk a little bit on on
what you said about, you know, struggling to score in
those reports quarters against those two really great teams. I
mean at the same time, like we scored thirty one
points in the fourth quarter against the Neggets against OKI,
see it wasn't you know that great. It was twenty
five points, which is still you know, for what Okc's
defense is, it's decent, right, And when when we played OKAYC,

(31:52):
we were one having the rant three throw away from
winning it in regulation. So just to say that, you know,
those are really fine market and you play those games over,
you know, three or four more times and perhaps you
get a fifty to fifty out of it in a
twenty two rather than ane and one, and we'll play
them more times this season as well. But yeah, to
put it all up into a bowl a bowl, to

(32:15):
put a bowl on it rather sorry, it's more about
what you can get from different defensive schemes with this team,
and it's something that we saw last season that I
don't think we're seeing as but this season, and perhaps
it's personnel based as well. Last season. It also comes
from the fact that we were, you know, treating every
single game as the NBA Finals. But even during the

(32:37):
regular season, we would switch between defensive schemes with the
same lineups a lot, and that's not something we're doing
this season. We're stinking a lot more with the same
things over long stretches of time, and sometimes it leads
to the team's going on ruins when they figure some
things out. Even the kind of the play calling on
defense is not as try hardy this season as it

(32:58):
was last season, partly because the Rockets have been able
to stay a foot because of how good their offense is.
But yeah, you know, there are at times, like against
ok CV Okay, thee Reachepherds doing to look like completely
you know, you know, out of his I guess step defensively.
But I do think if that were happening in a
playoff series, I don't think that's how it would have happened, right.

(33:20):
I think he made would have adapted at that point
and made it so he is not allowed to go
become reach Shepherd over and over and over again, even
even will Or that's certain certain certain spots, and I
do think in the meantime Reach Eppert's got better at
it as well. But yeah, this is to say it's
really hard, Like I think your points in general makes sense,

(33:44):
and I and and I agree with it so much
that I think they've been doing it since the beginning
of the season. And I do agree. You know, I've
been playing a little bit of Devil's advocates for to
make the conversation more interesting. But I do think it
makes sense to in this easier stretch of the schedule
to you know, throw reading to the fight a little
bit more, see what he can do with more responsibility.
And I do think that they will do that, and

(34:04):
it will be interesting, really interesting to see how that
pans out. I'm just you know, both playing Devil's advocate
and saying, you know, over the long term, I think
there's a lot of two weeks that we'll make once
we turn from Okay, this is a regular season, let's
try to make it a healthy and let's tart to
develop guys as we go along.

Speaker 2 (34:22):
Thing.

Speaker 4 (34:23):
Once things start to tighten up a bit more and
we'll get closer to the playoffs. I do think that
a lot of these concerns won't be what we'll be
talking about, because, as I said, there's a lot more
to get better at on the defensive end, and then
there is on the offensive end.

Speaker 3 (34:41):
Yeah, I do think that eventually there will be greater
concerns or at least other concerns to look at and
other variables. It just strikes me that right now the
read variable, and by extension, what it means for men
if he's used a little bit differently, is the low
hanging fruit that you can evaluate, especially given that you're

(35:02):
about to approach starting December fifteenth, the window in the
NBA calendar where you have a little bit of flexibility
to go outside your organization for upgrades if you think
you need it. So this period where you have a
few injuries stacking up and you have a weaker part
of the schedule to start December, to me, it strikes
me as an ideal time to learn some of these things,

(35:23):
especially with building and confidence. Anyway, like you could see
him improving by the game, this might be the time
to sort of throw him in the deep end and
see sink or swim how he fares. So if Hollow
to close the loop on the Reed Shepherd discussion, I
think we both agreed if this week he's probably going
to start. You can't completely rule out the possibility of

(35:44):
baron holiday, but I think it's probably going to be read.
But then next Sunday in Utah, when Kevin Durant is
back and assuming health, you have the four locked in
starters between Kadie alp Jabari and a men Is. Reed
Shepherd starting on Sunday afternoon in Utah gotged in my head.
I would not bet a lot of money on this,
but I think yes, like I think this might be

(36:07):
the time, especially with how well he's playing, assuming these
next two games don't go catastrophically poorly gone to my head,
I lean yes, what's your prediction.

Speaker 4 (36:17):
It's tough too confessionalize because we are expecting Katie to
be back by then, which would mean that Reed starting
would have been basically the same as if we made
the switch from you know, going to the starting lineup
last game, right, that would be the equivalent. I guess
you would have the excuse, not rely an excuse, but

(36:38):
you would get to say, okay, we were already starting him,
so we're, you know, just continuing to do what we
were thinking before. I'll go with he won't start.

Speaker 3 (36:47):
Okay, you think it'll segue to a double big or Josh.

Speaker 4 (36:52):
I think they'll go back to Josh. And but I
do think that he'll that at that point he will
be coming off the bench, but he will get to
thirty minutes again from for that script, kind of a
meatle ter, which is not really exciting. That's what I said.

Speaker 3 (37:07):
Yeah, he'll play starters minutes, but he won't technically start
alongside the other big guns.

Speaker 4 (37:12):
Yeah, because I think that's just what makes most sense
from an offensive standpoint, to make sure that it's like
a need that survives as well.

Speaker 3 (37:20):
Fair enough, Okay, as we wind down this pod, I
want to talk about guys who aren't on the floor
because I think on social media there's some interesting discussions
about these, namely Tarry Easton and Dorian Finney. Smith. Not
going to go to in depth on a Fred ban
Fleet or really in any depth at all, because we've

(37:41):
already said what needs to be said there. There's not
much to say in terms of whether he can come
back until later in the season. We know he and
the Rockets are hopeful of that scenario even if it's unlikely.
But in terms of is it realistic, I don't think
we'll know until closer to the All Star break. If then,
if he's at a point where he can start ramping
up to where it coming back in late March early April,

(38:02):
something like that is at all doable. I do think
it's noteworthy that there was a report on ESPN last
week that Kyrie Irving and the people close to him
thought that if it was the playoffs, he'd be able
to play right now, and he's eight months out from
when he tore his ACL. Fred would be right at
seven months when the playoffs start in mid April, and

(38:23):
I think he's about the same age, if anything, a
year or two younger than Kyrie. So just something to
keep in the back of your mind. Obviously every ACL
case is different, but Kyrie someone, if anything, I think
he needs a little more juice than Fred does. And
apparently at eight months he thinks he could play right
now if the game were meaningful enough. He's just not
because it's a the regular season and be Dallas is

(38:45):
going nowhere, so there's no incentive for him to rush
at this point. But as far as the guys who
we should talk about, Tari and Toriy Infinny Smith, I'm
going to talk about Tori first because that's new since
we last recorded Miam Palo. That is, we learned that
We've learned that Tari excuse me, is out for four
to six weeks with the oblique strain that he suffered

(39:07):
against the Trailblazers, yeah, that second NBA Cup game, and
so there's been a lot of talk tying it in
with his previous injuries, which I don't think is fair. Look,
one thing I've noted a lot on this pod and
on social media, there are chronic injuries that are not,
with very rare exceptions, chronically injury prone people, and I

(39:27):
certainly don't think someone who played in all eighty two
games as a rookie a couple of years ago is
one of those chronically injury prone people. I think the
situation with his leg the last two years, with the
stress fracture and then the surgery and the slow building
back up from it, I mean that's something if he
was having a consistent issue with that, or perhaps if

(39:50):
it was an overcompensation injury like he's having to use
the other leg a bit more like, Yeah, you can
have concerns about that specific injury and if it might
be chronic, but there's no reason to think he would
be more prone to an oblique train which happened when
he got hit in just the wrong place by Drew Holliday.

(40:10):
That's just wrong place, wrong time. It can happen to anyone.
You can look at Fred bin Fleet, who you know,
after his ACL tear, he talked to those of us
in the Houston media and said he had never suffered
a major injury in his life. And then he tears
an ACL and is out for potentially an entire NBA season.
So it can happen to anybody. It sucks for Tari,

(40:31):
but no, some of the narratives going around that, oh
he's made of glass, injury prone. No, that's not what
happened here. Just wrong place, wrong time, and assuming he
gives it enough time to heal, and there is a
little bit of a risk I do worry about. You know,
with this being a contract year, since he didn't sign
the extension prior to the season, you will have to

(40:51):
sort of guard against the temptation for Chari to come
back sooner rather than later to boost his stock for
next off season, which will talk about moments, but assuming
he gives it enough time, I think he'll move past it.
And there's no reason to think that this is at
all connected to what he went through last year, just
to fluke injury, and you know, it sucks for him,
but it doesn't need to define his season, and four

(41:14):
to six weeks he should be back around Christmas and
hopefully he'll put it behind him and have a really
good year. To this point, he was shooting about fifty
percent from three. He had been more durable. I know offensively,
it was a little erratic in terms of his style
of play. Defensively, the blocks and steels so we talked
about in play at grades were not where they were

(41:34):
in previous seasons, but there were some promising signs and
this does not need to be an injury that defines
his season or anything close to it. With that said,
while I don't think you should at all consider this,
you know evidence that he's injury prone. At the same time,
could it impact his market next offseason potentially, And it

(41:57):
sucks for Tari because we want the best for him
and I know he's one of your favorite players. Pallow,
but he really needs a season's worth of data to
make teams comfortable in the investment like this improved three
point shooting. If he only plays in forty forty five games,
there's gonna be the yeah, but attached to it, how
would it extrapolate over a full sample? Now, the good

(42:20):
news is that this injury, assuming it's four to six
weeks and be three to five weeks from today because
it's already been a week, assuming the timetable isn't elongated,
he'll miss about fifteen to twenty games. So that'll still
give him a clear path to playing sixty to sixty
five games this year. Maybe he misses an occasional game
for a back to back or something like that. But

(42:41):
if he plays sixty ish games in the regular season,
and we hope at least fifteen or so in the playoffs,
we hope this team has a multi round run, then
that's going to be combined a sample of something in
the neighborhood of seventy five eighty games, and so that's
plenty sufficient data that whatever number he accumulates this season,
however he contributes to winning, that would be plenty. One

(43:04):
of my netpicks by the way. I really hate when
folks don't count playoff games played towards you know, evaluations
of players. If anything, you should count them more. You
should add them to the regular season because they're even
more important. So if Tari plays sixty ish in the
regular season, then you add what we hope is fifteen
or twenty in the playoffs, then yeah, that's a big

(43:26):
enough sample that this is just one of those injuries
that happens over eighty two. Nobody's gonna think anything of it. However,
what this does do is dramatically reduce the margin of
error to where if he has his sprained ankle or
a hamstring pull, any other injury, to where all of
a sudden, he's down to say, forty five fifty games

(43:47):
coming off two seasons where the last two years he
averaged basically forty games played. Then that's a point where
I don't necessarily know that that teams would or should
consider of injury prone. But the sample would just be
so small that nobody's going to offer him anything close
to you know, I'm sure he'd love to have, you know,

(44:07):
nine figures guaranteed, But if the sample is this small,
then even if he does show growth as a shooter,
and in these other areas, the question is going to
be there as to how it extrapolates, and so he'd
find himself, in my opinion, in the same position he
was a few weeks ago with the rockets, which is
that you know they're willing to offer partial guarantees and
stuff like that, but teams are going to want to

(44:29):
negotiate and protect themselves based on the combination of the
injury history and just the difficulty in projecting based on
the sample being so small. So that's sort of how
I evaluate the tari thing. It's not Fairsay's injury prone. No,
this is a total fluke and hopefully he's back by
Christmas and none. If this is a big deal, and
if he stays healthy the rest of the way, then

(44:51):
I think the sample will be large enough to where
it doesn't really affect his market. But what this does
do is make it to where it's close enough now
that if he has one more let's say, moderate injury,
one more that takes him out for let's say another
four to six weeks. Types of thing like a grade
two ankle spray, hamstring pull, something of that nature, which
does happen throughout the NBA that at that point the

(45:11):
sample would be compromised enough to where it would have
a major impact. So that's sort of how I assessed
the Tory situation. I don't think that this in and
of itself is necessarily crippling, but it does dramatically decrease
the margin of error, and so because of that, the
Rocket Centauri are gonna have to be very careful to
resist the temptation of coming back too soon. I guess

(45:34):
that's my view of it, Polo, how do you view
I guess the aftermath of the Tari injury and what
it potentially means for him both this season and leading
into you know, an important summer for him financially in
twenty six.

Speaker 4 (45:47):
First of all, I worry about the impact that they
will have on on Tari. Like mentally, Darry has a
really difficult season. Last season, Darry had the passing of
his father, you know, really really tough things to deal with.
Then he went to being to the offseason. He didn't
get it. There were two things that are that apparently
bothered him. The first one that an extension didn't get done.

(46:10):
Then the fact that he wasn't on the ESPN Top
one hundred list when he felt like he should. And
now going into the season, he's once again being held
back by an injury, which is exactly what led to
all the problems that happened basketball related last season. And
he's already, and we've seen him in press, in press
conferences and stuff like that, he's already not the happiest camper,

(46:33):
and I worry for what it will happen, what it
will do to him mentally to go through another strike
of a month, a month and a half, perhaps two months,
because typically the Rockets, especially with sorry, have played it carefully.
But they've played it carefully with basically everybody. He tried
not to rush people back, So I do think that
the most. First of all, I do worry about Torry mentally,

(46:53):
and I hope that he's doing well. And I know well,
I know they they have a great atmosphere within the team.
We obviously know his mom from Twitter seems to be
a very kind person. But moving on from that, I
think it's very very unlikely that he plays more than
sixty two games just based off of this injury alone.

(47:15):
And then it's just so easy to miss three games,
four games just an ankles preader, and no, I'm not
even talking in another four to six week window talking
about one of those you know, lights problems that sometimes
appear up, a bruise or something like that, something that
just takes you off for for just a few games,
just you know, three or four games or one game
at a time, but you're mentallying throughout the season. I

(47:37):
think it's very unlucky that he plays more than sixty two,
just based off of currents of what currently is going on.
You know, there's between now and the twenty sixth of December,
there's fifteen games. Two of them aren't scheduled, so there
will be seventeen games with the two Cup games right,
two extra Cup games. So no, I think even Christmas

(47:59):
is a little bit optimistic. Perhaps he misses you know,
let's call it three more games, and he missed twenty.
He's already at sixty two. It's really hard for any
player to go from January to the end of the
season and not miss a single game, especially with Holling
Time's Rockets like to play in Holing Times. Stuies and plays.
Back to backs happen and stuff like that. Injury management happens,

(48:21):
an ankle happens here or there. I think it's very
unlikely that his season doesn't end up in the fifties.
It might be fifty nine, it might be fifty eight.
But I think it's really it's really tough for it
not to end up there. As far as how that
impacts his next contract, I'm with you. It's it's the
tough reality of the league. Had one worry coming into

(48:42):
the season, and that worry materialized once again. And it's
one of those things where the major risk for teams
is long deevity, and the major risk with theams is
being injured. Right, And this is not a situation like
LaMelo Ball where he's injured the a lot of the time,
but he the start a star player, right. His impact

(49:03):
in the game when he is on is really really big.
This is a role player type of the reason for
all his good and bad, he is a role player.
And so it's harder to make a bet on giving
someone major money when they're injury prone, when they're a
role player, because the upside just isn't quite there. We
know how impact Altari can be. There is a little

(49:24):
bit of upside there, but you're not throwing a lot
of money at Tarry to pry him away from Houston,
because you're betting on his upside. Now you're betting on
what you've already seen on a second on a small sample. Right.
And then there's another thing, which is typically with guys
that are injury prone, they sometimes take prove it deals. Right, Okay,
we'll sign it for one or two seasons. In this scenario,
a team signing Tario away from the Rockets, let's im

(49:46):
I can sound the Rockets for one or two seasons.
It's not going to get birth rights on him, and
so a proving deal doesn't really work because he's going
to have to hit threequncy again. And we've known players
have gone on chaft for hitting free AGMC over the
last few few years, whether it is actual free agency
or restricted free agency. So I think going into next year,
I think this makes it more likely that that Tari

(50:07):
stays with us for two reasons. First of all, we
have all of the information about his medical history, and
what was a fuken wasn't more so than anything trying
to sign them. We know what we have, and and
Harry wants to be here, and we and we've talked
about the four pointy times that the Rockets are the
thing that really loved ourisan and then really appreciate his impact.
And I think if Bush comes to Shove, a compromise

(50:29):
can be made where perhaps we trade off some of
the non guarantees for a longer contract at a lower
av or something like that. And so because that's what
Raphaelstone has shown prowess in is the understanding that really
long contracts are basically every time very team friendly. We've
seen it with j Bari Smith, We've seen it with Autprinchangun.

(50:51):
We've even seen it with with Ondian Finish Smith. Like
this one office very quickly understands that length is really important,
that there's a lot of upside of it, and that
makes me happy because I do really think that for
the Rockets the best thing that can happen is for
Surry to stay, even if it costs a few more
dollars than perhaps a replacement level or someone who's almost

(51:13):
as good but hasn't been here as long like I
think Torry has a lot of upside and his impact
in the game, even as a role player, it's just tough.
I think this injury will hurt his perception the perception
of him outside of the Rockets more than it will
hurt the perception of him in Houston. So it's because
it's as you said, it's going to be twenty two

(51:34):
games in twenty three, twenty four, fifty seven games in
twenty four to twenty five last season, and we're talking
probably about around fifty seven, fifty eight, fifty nine maybe
games this season as well. Like we know the reasons
for these injuries, and other teams obviously have their their
research as well, but we all will we will always
haven't met in that perspective. So I think just by
a virtue of that knowledge will be the team will

(51:57):
be the team most comfortable giving Tarryson moremad than anybody else.
So I think he'll stay as a result.

Speaker 3 (52:08):
Yeah, the one pushback I would have, I do think,
as mentioned earlier, you would have to add if the
Rockets go on a long playoff run and he stays
on the floor, you should add that to the upper
fifties total. However, for that to be fully waited, he
then needs to play well in that playoff run, which,
because you're playing the best of the best, can be difficult.

(52:29):
We know last year he struggled against the Warriors. So
I would note if you want to look for, you know,
the sunny side up version for Tari, it's that if
he goes out and succeeds in the playoffs and has
a long playoff run with what looks like a contender
right now knock on wood, assuming health, then you could
boost that number to something in the seventies. Maybe we

(52:49):
get really lucky and it's the eighties. But there's a
lot of ifs to that, both in terms of the
team results and of course how Tari fairs if he's
out there with the Rockets for an extended playoff run.
The other injury guy I want to touch on before
we wrap up the Pies, Dorian Finney Smith, because I
can sense the frustration growing and I'm just curious your take,

(53:10):
Powell on when the moment will be.

Speaker 2 (53:13):
That you.

Speaker 3 (53:15):
Officially get concerned, and maybe you're already there. I'm not
there yet because when you look at what we actually
know about the off season ankle surgery, and according to reports,
it was the same or very similar to what Jay
Shan Tate had, and Tate came back a few weeks
ago and was clearly not himself, and that's why he's

(53:35):
going down to the G League to try and work
back into better shape, get his rhythm back, all that
good stuff. So returning from off season ankle surgery early
in the ensuing season is not easy, and so the
Rockets have not offered a timetable. It's not like he's
in hiding. He is working out, he is doing some
physical activity, but they have not said when they expect

(53:58):
him to play, And so for me, I'm sort of
keeping Christmas as the inflection point, Like if he's not
playing or clearly ramping up by then, then I would
be concerned because at that point, you know, early January
I believe is the halfway point of the season, and
clearly when it was leaked that he wasn't going to

(54:20):
be ready to start the year. If it's the type
of injury that might cost him more than half the season,
you'd hear a little bit more from the organization. You'd
hear the team sort of bracing media and fans for
that outcome. We did not get that. So the way
it was handled makes me think that they don't have
a defendive timetable, but they don't expect it to be

(54:41):
like anything close to a majority of the season. So
if it's two months or under, something in that range,
and especially if the Rockets are winning games at a
high level. Anyway, I could see it as an annoyance.
But for the greater good, which obviously they believe in
joining Phinney Smith as a player and what he can
be in the playoff, hopefully you deal with it and

(55:02):
you trust your depth, which to this point they've done,
although with the injury Atari now that depth is getting
tested increasingly so by the week. As far as the
ankle injury itself, it's important to remember, like I've seen
all these you know, Lakers fans are all over social
media and this talk of laser eyes Rob Polinka, and

(55:22):
this is why they didn't bring back Dori and Phony Smith.
This is not some secret injury that no one knew about.
Whatever the underlying instability was. He dealt with this the
last two seasons, including down the stretch of twenty four
to twenty five and in the twenty five playoffs with
the Lakers when he was their most valuable player. From
an on off perspective. Now, I know he's not as

(55:44):
good as Lebron or Luca. Let's not get crazy, but
just speaking to the impact that he made on those lineups.
So what that tells me is that the surgery was
not necessarily a necessity. It's to make him feel better.
It's to try and take care of a nagging issue
that's been there for a couple of years and was
certainly limiting him in certain ways, but it wasn't so

(56:05):
crippling that he literally couldn't play. Now, with that said,
any surgery has risk, and so if somehow the surgery
didn't go well, if there was a setback and something
of that nature, that's where I do think it'd be
fair to have concerns. But it doesn't trace back to
you know, the Lakers had some super privileged intel other

(56:27):
than he was having the surgery for the issue that
everybody knew he had with his ankle the last couple
of years. Everybody already knew that he played through it.
The surgery was just to get him feeling better and
to allow him to be hopefully even more impactful defensively
because he's moving better. So all that tells me the
underlying issue. It's not something like, oh, just horrible that

(56:52):
behind the scenes everybody knew but the Rockets somehow didn't.
No it's not that clearly. The Rockets were aware of
it when they signed him. They did their due diligence
with the medicals, and as long as the surgery and
the build back process have gone according to plan, I
could see them being especially historians thirty two. Now, he's

(57:14):
played in the NBA for a while and we know
Jay shin Tape was not himself when he came back,
and we know how important DFS is going to be
whenever he eventually plays for the Rockets, So I could
see them being a little more conservative, especially with the
team winning games at a high rate anyway, and saying,
let's make sure that when he comes back, he's all
the way back, that we're not having to start and stop.

(57:37):
And so at this point, just a month into the season,
I'm willing to give the Rockets and Urian the benefit
of the doubt, because, again, whatever the underlying issue was,
he played through it last year. He had had the
surgery before the Rockets signed him, so people were able
to look at the latest imaging and the results. Everybody
knew what they were dealing with in terms of is

(57:59):
there I mean, obviously we don't one hundred percent know,
but we see him at practice. It's not like he's
in hiding. So to this point, I see it more
as the Rockets being cautious because they can and I
think he'll be back. My guess would be, you know,
that week of Christmas or some marquee games, including that
Christmas Night game against the Lakers, who obviously he played

(58:21):
with last year. I could see that being a target. However,
if we go beyond Christmas and we're still in this
this period of just vague nothingness where they're just saying, yeah,
he's building back up, Well, at some point you wonder
I see on the John Wall ramp where he just
never uh, he just never makes it back. I'm not
there yet. I've seen some, you know, as the weeks past,

(58:42):
people getting more anxious about it. I'm just curious, Powlo
your take. When will we reach the point that that
you think there's something more to the story than what
we know.

Speaker 4 (58:53):
Well, let's just say Houston sports teams have a reputation
for not being very transparent with the intrigues. Joe Mixon, basically,
anybody who's ever played for the Astros and the Rockets
didn't used.

Speaker 3 (59:10):
To be that way.

Speaker 4 (59:11):
But I don't sure I'm not sure what the definition
is for concern. I guess I'll call myself officially concerned
if he doesn't get back by game twenty or twenty two,
like at that point you've missed a fourth of the season.
That's being said. I think there's a difference. There's a
difference between the en concerned and feeling like some due
diligence was not done or that this was not expected.

(59:34):
Because when you go and look at Tony and Finnie
Smith's contract, and now we understand why it's a bargain.
He has two non guaranteed years. It's a two years deal,
and you only take it. You like that if there is,
you know, serious consideration as to if you would need
to be waived ahead of that time. I think the

(59:54):
contract gives us a clue about how the contract obviously
is because of injury, not well because of his eight
He's not old, but he's not necessarily young either, right,
So I guess I'll start to worry by game twenty two,
twenty two, especially because without our reason, if there was
a time for him to push to push him to play,

(01:00:16):
it would be while the Rockets are short handed and
they will still be shorthanded by you know, game twenty two,
twenty two. I think that winds up with mid December
or something like that. So yeah, I am maybe art
really seeing goes because of what has happened with kill Mixon,
who was going to come back after you know, four weeks.
Then he was on IR and now people are unsure

(01:00:37):
if he's going to come back this season or not.
So maybe that's it. But we are at a point
where the Rockets could really use during tennis Smith and
he's already to go even if he misses, you know,
the entire season. The contract is still a bargain, right
he's making. It's making like eleven to twelve million a

(01:00:57):
year for two years with two team options basically is
the way that works. So I don't think it was
necessary even if you know, what we would call the
worst a scenario happens. Still don't think it was about
beat because when healthy, he's a really backful player for
a really cheap price. So yeah, I'm just I'll be

(01:01:19):
concerned around Game twenty to twenty two because we could
use him, but me being concerned about his health and
how much he'll be able to contribute this season has
basically nothing to do with how I would evaluate the contract,
because I think it has a lot of upside going forward,
and also caution people to when he does come back,

(01:01:42):
he's probably not going to be one hundred percent like
full impact right away. So that's part of why part
of where my concern comes from, because you know, not
everyone is Kahi Leonard who comes back from injury and
he's instantly really impactful. You know, he might come back
around game twenty five and then he will say, tend
to fifteen games to be fully up to speed, and

(01:02:02):
by the time you are actually looking at it, it's
been half a season. But yeah, it's guess by definition,
concern guess or but not worried.

Speaker 3 (01:02:11):
I guess, Yeah, that's fair. And to your point, on
the quarter mark of the season, that will actually be
in a couple of weeks. They have coming out of Thanksgiving,
that very busy week that I referenced earlier, with five
games between Sunday the thirtieth and Saturday the sixth, which
will be their twenty first game of the season, I believe,

(01:02:32):
because after Golden State there'll be at sixteen, so I
wouldn't expect him to be playing by then, but I
think what you were getting at, and I would largely
be in agreement. He should be ramping up, like there
should be intel or information that things are clearly progressing
to this point. You know, they've said that we haven't
actually seen it. I would think we'd see and hear

(01:02:52):
something a bit more concrete by that point to where
at least he's starting to ramp up and then a return.
That's what I was talking about in that Christmas window.
Those two games in LA on Christmas week would potentially
be realistic. I have not heard that yet. Again, I'm
largely guessing, just like all of you listening, But that's
sort of where I'm as far as his ability to

(01:03:13):
play this season, which I do fully expect facing everything
I've heard. That's sort of the timeline that I'm looking at.
And if we're still you know, by mid December we
haven't heard anything, and by Christmas we haven't even heard
or seen any evidence of ramping up, then yeah, that's
the point where it's like, Okay, maybe there was a setback,
maybe there's more to this than we know, but based
on what we know now and the history of returning

(01:03:35):
from ankle injuries, again, just look at Jayshun Tate, who
had the same surgery and has not looked good at
all since coming back. I think that's a lot of
what's going on here, just being extra conservative because the
Rockets can be They've got a lot of depth, They're
playing very well, and this is a guy who's very
important for them in the grand scheme, so they want
to gi him as much time as possible to build
back up from that off season ankle surgery and be
back to the guy that he was before. He's been

(01:03:55):
a little bit run down, yet still playing well while
being run down, but run down nonetheless the last couple
of years. Anyway, with that, I'll bring this episode to
a close. Or no, Actually, one more thing that just
showed up on my twitter feed. I'll just comment on
this very briefly. Fred Nfleet's been replying to comments all
day because he's launching his own podcast during his rehab.
He's got a fit more time these days. Unguarded, I

(01:04:18):
believe is the name. First episode should be launching this week.
Someone asked him on's he going to announce that his
ACL is healed, that he's coming back for the playoffs.
Fred's response, No announcement, I'm coming out the tunnel like
Willis Reid hashtag Unguarded. That's the name of his podcast.
So first things first, listen to the Podcastrori. It's a

(01:04:39):
very well spoken guy. But secondly, I'm telling you behind
the scenes to anyone who will listen, they have not
given up hope at all of a fred An Fleet
return this season, and even if it's in a limited capacity,
the Rockets certainly use him a leader, a floor space
or a good defender, amazing communicator, and what a lift
it would be psychologically for this team. And if he's

(01:05:00):
not fully himself until next season, just the possibility is
something to sort of keep in the back of your mind,
another variable that hopefully the Rockets will have more intel
on by the time you get truly to that trade
deadline window in late January early February. Anyway, with that,
I will bring this episode to a close, And if
you want to hear from us before our next full show,

(01:05:21):
well you can listen to some of the postgame lives
that I've been doing over on the clutch Fins YouTube.
Powel has been involved in some of those as well,
but you can also read my work in USA Today's
Rockets Wire. You can hear me occasionally on Sports Talk
Sement ninety, official flagship of the Rockets, and you can
also check out our archives of the Rockets Launch Pod,
which you can find at your podcast home of choice

(01:05:43):
regardless of what you want to find. The Clutch Fans
Live YouTube podcast archives, USA, Today's Rockets Wire, Sports Talk
seven ninety, Clutch Fans, where I blog along with the
aforementioned Rockets Wire. All of those links you go to
Launch Pods seven to ninety on Twitter Slash, you hit
up the link tree and the bio and that's got
all the links that you need to support this show

(01:06:05):
and support Paolo and myself. All right, with those plugs complete,
I will adjourn. As always, we appreciate you so much
for listening. Have a great Thanksgiving. We are thankful to
have you all our loyal listeners and what's turned out
to be a great audience for talking Houston Rockets basketball.
Enjoy your holiday week and please come back soon for
more new episodes of the Rockets Launch Pot.