Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The art of the deal.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's the best way you can describe what is happening
right now is Donald Trump has announced tariffs that are
going to be paused for nations who aren't retaliating. What
happened to China. China's raid has been cranked up to
one hundred and twenty five percent, clearly making a statement
that we want to work with everyone but China, who
(00:23):
is retaliating against the US. And what happened on the
stock market after the announcement, it soared immediately. It is
the world united against the Chinese Communist Party if you
want to talk about it from a political aspect. Now,
when the announcement came through, this is what it sounded
like on Fox News.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
All right, Fox News Alert.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
Moving markets right now is a brand new truth social
out from President Trump. The now is surging now at
fifteen hundred points on this President Trump has just put
out a true social saying based on the lack of
respect that China has shown to the world's markets. I
am hereby raising the tariff charge to China by the
US to one hundred and twenty five percent effective immediately.
(01:09):
At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will
realize that the days of ripping off the USA and
other countries is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and
based on the fact that more than seventy five countries
have called reps of the United States, including the Department's Commerce, Treasury,
and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects
being discussed relative to trade, trade barriers, tariffs, currency manipulation,
(01:33):
and non monetary terraffs, and that these countries have not,
at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape or
form against the US. And here's the big news, grabbing
the headlines. I've authorized a ninety day pause capital letters
and a substantially lowered reciprocal tariff during this period of
(01:55):
ten percent, also effective Immediately, he finishes with, thank you
for your attention on this matter. That's a new true
social john out from the President moments ago. The markets
obviously reacting to that, well.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
That ought to put a lot of pressure on China,
I would think. And the EU, which had just authorized
petitive tariffs on the United States based on the reciprocal
tariffs that the President announced against the EU. We'll see
what Canada has to say as well, because they took
retaliatory steps, so you've got, I mean out of There
was that list in the New York Times the other day.
(02:31):
It was of twenty countries, and of those twenty countries,
three one group of countries the EU was thinking about retaliation.
China was retaliating, Canada was retaliating the other seventeen.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
And I know that there's a lot more than just twenty.
Speaker 4 (02:44):
But the other seventeen were either offering concessions or were
entering into negotiations. So the President is clearly reacting to
these countries that want to play ball and want to
talk about evening the playing field. But for China and
Canada and potentially the EU, and I know the EU
hasn't yet pulled the trigger, they've just authorized it, they're
(03:04):
going to find themselves at a very difficult place. Now.
All these other countries, and there could be seventy or
more of them, are going to have a ninety day
pause on reciprocal tariffs. In meantime, China's got these one
hundred and four percent tariffs against it, Canada is going
to have tariffs against it, and the EU, if it
goes ahead and pulls the trigger, will have punitive tariffs
against it as well. So I'm really interested to see
(03:25):
what the EU does in the hours ahead. It may
pull back.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
This was the initial reaction. As this was happening.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
We were watching the Nasdaq skyrocket because so many people
were excited about what the President had just done. So
let me break this down for you another way. Donald
Trump is coming out and he's saying, if you were
a good partner, if you were not retaliating, you will
get a better deal. If you were first the table
(03:52):
like I promised, you will get a better deal.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
And Wall streets surging.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
On Wednesday after the blowout, tenured Treasury auction and helped
calm fears of a financial crisis. Delivering a sharp rebuke
to doomsayers who predicted foreign investors with free American assets
in protest of Donald Trump's trade agenda. All of that
line from the media around the world and in this
country and from the Democratic Party, well, that's all crap.
(04:20):
Now President Trump announcing that pause in the tar hikes
on many of these countries. The Dow at one point
was up about six percent, SMP five hundred up seven
and a half percent, and the Nasdaq store soared up
eight point nine percent. Capping a dramatic rebound from a
week of steep losses triggered by spiking bond yields and
(04:43):
escalating global tariffs. Now, the President knew that this was
going to be a tough negotiation, and that's the reason
why he dug in the spark a remarkably strong thirty
nine billion dollar auction of ten year Treasury notes. The
bond sold it a yel of four point four to
three five percent, also lower than expected, with a significant
(05:05):
stop through, a sign that investors were eager to buy
even below prevailing market rates. Foreign buyers, classified as indirect bidders,
scooped up a whopping eighty eight percent of their allocation,
far exceeding historical norms. Analysis characterized the auction as quote
(05:26):
extremely strong, very strong, and unprecedented, depending on who you
talk to. Now, at the same time this was all
going on, Donald Trump said on social media that he
would pause the tariff hikes for ninety days on countries
that were not retaliating against US tariff's announced last week.
The ten percent baseline tariff, he said, will remain for days.
(05:48):
Wall Street had been gripped by panic, especially from the
media and the left, that Trump's tariff offensive would spark
an American sellout or a sell America route, with foreign creditors,
especially China and Japan, dumping treasuries. Yields on the ten
years surge more than sixty basis points over four days,
(06:10):
the biggest move since the financial crisis back in two
thousand and eight. Talk of a liquidity crunch and emergency
fed intervention. We're even dominating the doomsdayers and their headlines
in propaganda. Well, the Treasury Secretary Scott descent urged calm, saying, quote,
there are some very large leverage players who are experiencing losses.
(06:33):
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(08:35):
The auction also vindicated that view demand was broad and deep,
undercutting claims that foreign buyers were staging a boycott of
the US Treasury. Prices also rose sharply after the results,
and yields fell back from crisis levels. Stocks then followed suit,
surging across the board as investors reassessed the risk outlook now.
(08:59):
The turnaround came just one day after a disappointing three
year auction had amplified fears of collapsing demand.
Speaker 1 (09:08):
Again that's how the media put it.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
Analysts then started warning of a potential demand strike driven
by Trump's tariffs, high inflation.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
And rising deficits.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Some even speculated that the FED might have to intervene
to stabilize the markets with what they were trying to
describe as a quote bailout. Instead, investors showed up in
record number with record force, reaffirming confidence in US debt
and sending a message at America's capital markets remained the
most trusted in the world. Even amid a global trade realignment,
(09:44):
people wanted their money in America. The bond market now
turns its attention to Thursday's thirty year auction. But after
what we're seeing right now, Wall Street's mood has clearly
shifted from panic to almost overwhelming common confidence. Now China,
by the way, is striking back at Trump. They are saying,
(10:05):
let's go to tariff wars if you want to.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
We're not backing down.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
This is also isolating China, which is part of the
big plan by Donald Trump. China strikes back at Trump
with immediate eighty four percent tariffs on US goods. They're
slamping that eighty four percent tariff on US goods from
Thursday on ramping the impost. Beijing hurried their move to
just the latest debacle in their international trade war, sparked
(10:33):
by President Donald Trump. This is their words, and they said,
we had no choice but to stand up for China. Well,
that's not even going over well with a guy by
the name of Kevin O'Leary, you know him from Shark Tank,
is mister wonderful.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
Here's what he said on CNN.
Speaker 5 (10:49):
One hundred and four percent tariffs in China are not enough.
I'm advocating four hundred percent. I do business in China.
They don't play by the rules. They've been in the
whil for decades. They have never abided by any of
the rules they agreed to when they came in for decades.
They cheat, they steal, they steal ip I can't litigate
in their courts. They take product, technology, they steal it,
(11:12):
they manufacture it and sell it back. Here never has
an administrator. I want Chia on an airplane to Washington
to level the playing field. This is not about tariffs anymore.
Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no administration.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
For decades.
Speaker 5 (11:32):
As someone who actually does business there, I've had enough.
I speak for millions of Americans who have ip that
have been stolen by the Chinese. I have nothing against
the Chinese people. They brought great literacy, art, and tech
to the world. The government cheats and steals, and finally
(11:53):
an administration. You may not like Trump, you may not
like his style or his rhetoric. Finally an administration that
puts up and says enough four hundred percent tariffs. Tomorrow morning,
he'll tell you why she can only stay the supreme
leader if people are employed. If we wipe out any
(12:14):
business there. Because we are still thirty nine percent of
all consumables on Earth and twenty five percent of the
world's GDP, America is the number one economy on Earth
with all the cards. We will not have that forever.
It's time to squeeze Chinese heads into the wall.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
Now, well, hold on.
Speaker 6 (12:32):
I hear you, But hold on. If we're talking about people,
the average consumer, not necessarily the head honchos of businesses
all across the globe. Can they withstand the pressure of
that sort of tax on the good land?
Speaker 1 (12:47):
There will be.
Speaker 6 (12:48):
But yeah, but what's your timeline compared to You don't
know the average Americans timeline, what they can actually survive.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
There's people right now.
Speaker 5 (12:54):
Who can serve one hundred percent Tomorrow morning, cheese on
an airplane to Washington to cut a deal.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
You go go back to what O'Leary says here, and
he says, number one, this is not about tariffs anymore.
Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no
administration for decades, and someone who actually does business there,
I've had enough.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Like he's in business in China.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
O'Leary says, he said, then the government referring.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
To China cheats and steals.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
And finally, you may not like Trump, you may not
like his style, you may not like his rhetoric. Finally,
you have a US administration that puts up and says enough.
He's also absolutely right about the bigger, broader play here
that Donald Trump is clearly trying to do with China.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
He says, he can only stay the Supreme leader.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
If people are employed, if we wiped out any business there,
because we are still thirty nine percent of all consumables
on Earth. America is the number one economy on Earth
with all the cards, we will not have that forever.
So as he said, it's time to squeeze Chinese heads
into the wall. That is exactly, by the way, what
(14:04):
Donald Trump understands as well. Now the left in the media,
they can't stand the fact that a business guy like
O'Leary is saying this because it basically takes their arguments
away that he's reckless, that he's going to destroy the economy,
that he's going to start World War three, that we're
going to get punished to the American people, we're going
to suffer right, all of these things. It takes it
(14:28):
all off the table. Now, I go back to why
Donald Trump is doing this. He sees China as a
national security threat. More than anything else, he sees China
as a national security threat. And so what he's trying
(14:49):
to do is he's trying to isolate China. He's trying
to make sure that China is on an island by itself,
and everyone else under understands that America is in fact.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
On your side.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
I also think you got to go back to another
point here, and I want to play this for you
because I think it's an important point. The White House
has said from the very beginning, we're gonna do deals
with good actors, and we're gonna hold those that refuse
to be good actors.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
What are we gonna do. We're gonna hold them to account.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Listen to Secretary Bescent at the White House walking out
talking about all this, and when he walked out there,
the Dow was up twenty one hundred points or five
point six seven percent. Here is what Bissett said about
these seventy five countries. It's the Treasury secretary who want
to negotiate with America.
Speaker 7 (15:45):
As I said, We've given ninety days, and the only
certainty we can provide is that the US is going
to negotiate in good faith, and we assume that our
allies will too. And so in terms of certainty, we
will see what China does. But what I am certain of,
what I'm certain of is that what China is doing
(16:07):
will affect their economy much more than a will ours,
because they have an export driven flood the world with
cheap export models. And the rest of the world now
understands because when we put up our tear pool, those
exports were already flowing to the rest of the G
seven and to the global ceuth And this is January
(16:29):
where we.
Speaker 5 (16:29):
Was just silvery how much of this decision was driven
by the bond market creatoring overnight what case happening block China's.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
Selling their bond.
Speaker 7 (16:39):
I am nothing that says that, and we actually had
quite a good tenure auction today. And all this was again,
this was driven by the President's strategy. He and I
had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his
strategy all along, and that you know, you might even
say that he go to China into a bad physician.
(17:01):
They responded, they have shown themselves to the world to
be the bad actors, and we are willing to cooperate
with our allies and with our trading partners who did
not retaliate. It wasn't a hard message. Don't retaliate, things
will turn not well.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
It wasn't a hard message.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Don't retaliate right and things will end up well for you.
The countries that got that right are the ones that
are happy right now because of this pause, and the
countries that got it wrong, China specifically, they're now being
isolated and they're also being shown for what they actually
(17:42):
are now.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
The media does not want you to understand that.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Okay, like the media does not want you to understand
just how big of the deal today is. And the
fact that Wall Street's announcing it this way are reacting,
I should say this way to the announcement is truly incredible.
I also love how many people have just gotten it wrong.
(18:04):
John Bolton, who's an anti Trump guy, on CNN talking
about China, he said on the tariffs that this is
quote economic illiteracy, really economic illiteracy.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
Well, then explain what just happened.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
And this is the reason why I don't trust these
neo con warmongers like John Bolton.
Speaker 8 (18:25):
China's embassy in Washington released a statement, it urges the
White House to quote immediately correct its wrongdoings end quote,
warning that China's response, if American tariffs stay in place,
will quote continue to the end. Perspectively, now from former
you and investor John Bolton, who served as National security
advisor in the first Trump administration, in Richard quest seen
in Business Editor at Large and anchor, Quest means business. So,
(18:46):
investor Bolton, I know you're not economists, but just from
a strategic perspective, do you think China is going to
blink and try to cut a deal with the White House?
Speaker 9 (18:53):
It certainly doesn't look like it, But what Trump is
doing is a huge opportunity for China.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
Worldwide.
Speaker 9 (19:00):
Tariffs are a form of economic illiteracy. Trump has no
idea really what he's talking about. He doesn't understand how
tariffs works. He has said as recently as a few
days ago, he'd used trade surpluses and deficits as like
a profit and loss statement, which they certainly are not.
So what he's doing has put us in a very
(19:21):
vulnerable position, and probably in the worst position possible to
go after the real country problem in the international trading system,
which is China, instead of taking on the country that's
stolen our intellectual property for decades, among other things, by
gathering our allies together, all of whom also suffer from
(19:42):
China's intellectual property theft and engaging in concerted action. We're
at war with our largest trading partners while we're about
to go to war with China as well. It simply
makes no sense. And it's just sad and depressing that
more Republicans haven't stood up and said that this is illiteracy.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
It's he illiteracy. I tell you, I gotta say.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
I love that these guys like John Bolton look like
such idiots right now, and we need to expose them
when they are because they hate Donald Trump so much
they can't understand even when he's winning, they should be
cheering for it. That's how much Trump derangement syndrome has
set in on these guys like John Bolton. He's angry,
he's not in this White House. He's angry. He's not
in the know. He's angry, he's not in the room.
(20:26):
And then he goes out on TV and says things
like this, when in fact, what he said is not
happening is literally exactly what just happened. We have allies now,
we have people talking, and we have an isolation of China.
So when these when these neo cons talk, laugh in
their face, do.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Me a favor.
Speaker 2 (20:45):
Make sure you share this podcast with your family, your friends,
put it up on social media wherever you are on
social media, and I will see you back here tomorrow