NFL Conference Championship Best Bets!!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
W r k O presens Boston's only nightly sports betting show,
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Now from nine till midnight,
your home to talk spreads, props, totals and more. Hey, Doc,
and what's the harm of bringing back a little info
in the future. I maybe we could place a couple
of days. The Gambler starts now. All I have to

(00:23):
do is bet on the winner and I'll never lose.
Hears Adam Kaufman. Welcome to Thursday.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
This is The Gambler with Adam Kaufman WRKO. Of course
coming your way nationally, internationally, if you have the Internet,
if you have the ability to listen live on your
smart speakers, we like to say around here on the
iHeart Media app or of course just in podcast form
wherever you get your podcasts. Bottom line, Dan Watkins, We're

(00:52):
available to the people.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
That's right. That is right.

Speaker 4 (00:55):
It's funny.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
So I have known I put non in quote fingers
because I've never actually met the man, but I have
talked to him a number of times. I've known Jason
Soble for a long time, right, never actually came face
to face. Yeah, I don't think you have no that
happens a lot in this business.

Speaker 4 (01:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Oh, I mean we're gonna have some guests on later
on in the show that I've talked to dozens of times.
I mean, I have spent more time. Jeff Ulwrick is
going to join us in the final hour of the show.
During the height of the pandemic, I was with DraftKings,
so was he, and we were doing Madden simulation broadcasts

(01:37):
nice and I was like, you know, play by play,
and he's the color commentator, and really it was just
us horsing around. I spent more time for probably a
year and a half talking to Moose than I did
my own family, and I was in the house with them,
so but I've never met him in person, never come
across him, because he's all the way out there in

(01:58):
Western Canada. So it's funny. It's a funny business, no
doubt about it. Moo's gonna come on with us last
hour the show. Will help us talk through some NFL
best bets. He's with Fantasy Life put out an article
with another buddy of ours, Matt Lamarca, see how they
feel about Eagles, commanders, chiefs, bills. Certainly, I have my convictions.
I'm sure you do.

Speaker 4 (02:19):
As well for one of the games.

Speaker 2 (02:22):
With one of them, we're gonna do a deep dive
I kind of do for both, or if I if
not for cause I know where your convictions lie. If
I don't for both, I'm actually probably have a little
bit more faith in the other side, ironically enough, because yeah,
I feel more strongly about the AFC, you feel more

(02:43):
strongly about the NFC. But we'll explore all of that.
We're going to do our deep dive. Much as we
did for Commanders Eagles yesterday. We're gonna do that tonight
for Chiefs. Bills, Sal Capaccio, wgr and Buffalo is going
to hop on with us. We'll have a new Kansas
City Voice though also from ninety six the Fan no
Carrington Harrison. This week we will have he set us

(03:04):
up with someone because we did reach out to Carrington,
just couldn't make it happen today. So you know, when
the Chiefs inevitably go to the Super Bowl, because it's
just what they do, I'm sure we'll talk to them,
although I'm rooting for a different outcome or.

Speaker 3 (03:17):
Flip side, because Carrington didn't come on with us to
preview the game. For the first time in the past
two years. Right, that's why they lose.

Speaker 2 (03:23):
That's you know what, good, Let's put that on him.
Hopefully Dusty Lichens will join us from the station. We'll
get his perspective on the Chiefs in this opening hour.
Coming up in ten to fifteen minutes, Joe Delara will
join US Action Network. We'll look ahead to tonight's late
basketball games, including Celtics Lakers. After Boston narrowly held on
in overtime and what was probably the ugliest game that

(03:46):
the Celtics have been involved in the entire freaking season,
and we damn near got that cover and hit that
parlaid in overtime. Celtics took their large leave the whole game.
They went up by seven two minutes left, and I'm thinking, man,
just a little run, a couple more of those threes,
win this thing by twelve.

Speaker 4 (04:04):
Cash the parlay.

Speaker 2 (04:05):
But no, I was not once but twice yesterday the
jerk on the people's parlay. We jerked two people's parlays
in one day, and both times Dan, both times I
was the problem.

Speaker 4 (04:22):
Two jerks one day.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
It's like Kaufman, get a hobby, take it easy on
you get in public would you holy crap, embarrassing? Why
was going at the beginning? Our buddy Brian Budd, who
you may have noticed has been absent from the program
this week.

Speaker 4 (04:39):
We didn't get rid of him. He's just not here.
I don't know. Is he in Florida?

Speaker 5 (04:44):
Is that?

Speaker 4 (04:44):
Is that?

Speaker 3 (04:44):
What's going on?

Speaker 5 (04:46):
Trip?

Speaker 4 (04:46):
Okay?

Speaker 2 (04:47):
So he, I guess bumped into I really, I didn't
get a backstory. I didn't ask either. Bumped into our
guy Jason Sobel, ambassador for bet MGM, long of Action
Network as well. He's all over the place, but comes
on with us to talk golf, and I just love that.
He's like, Yo, I'm talking to our guy Jason Sobell,
and you and I independently on the text thread at

(05:09):
the exact same time you had a Chili's.

Speaker 4 (05:13):
Man's got a reputation.

Speaker 3 (05:15):
I immediately started laughing. That was hysterical. It was like, right
as I hit send, yours came through and.

Speaker 4 (05:24):
Yeah, I have to uh.

Speaker 2 (05:26):
I hope he just went up and like, Hey, I'm
from the Gambler, right, I've called you a million times,
just wanted to say hello.

Speaker 4 (05:35):
So that's cool.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
Hopefully Brian's having a good time. I did hear recently
this I mean that you're an OG listener to this
program if you remember this name. I did hear recently
from e J Pacheco. Oh really yeah, shot me a
text because he came across some sports grid stuff that
I was doing. He's like, you know, keep killing it,
do it nice, Ej. He was uh pre Brian on

(05:58):
the board. So we're a small operation here, but a loyal,
a devoted one. So there's a lot to get into tonight.
Like I said, basketball in this opening hour, maybe another
people's parlay for the lates late in the NBA. See
how we do Today's unfortunately is dead. I got through
the tribe, William and Mary got through Man and it

(06:20):
was mostly sweat free. Got it done, commanding win for
William and Mary over Hampton ninety four to eighty three,
needed minus six and a half. We got that home. Sadly,
Jonathan Davis from Visen let us down. We're hoping to
make a jerk of him tonight. Not that we like
hitting two out of three, but it's better than one
out of three. He went goal in the first ten

(06:43):
minutes of the Bruins game. Didn't get a goal the
whole first period. There was one in the first two
to three minutes of the second period, but too little,
too late on that one. So we are now chasing
your play, which hasn't tipped off yet. We got another
almost an hour for that. That's UCSB Santa Barb.

Speaker 3 (07:00):
We got some good CLV there, though I think it's
down to nine and a half. It's a good spots.
We got it at eleven and a half, right.

Speaker 2 (07:05):
So we're trying to cast that see if we can
make a two out of three. Rob Donaldson the Donaldson
experiment he got basically he how did he phrase it
to me in a text message? It was like it
was like a Wisconsin makeup call last night with that
miracle legacy cash that he got from Arkansas last night.
Now we're chasing Eastern Washington minus two and a half
tonight and that game's only a few minutes in bank

(07:27):
were repairs. They're both still live. Dan got Elon Holmet sweaty.

Speaker 4 (07:34):
It was sweaty.

Speaker 3 (07:35):
They were trailing at one point in the second half,
but they ended up winning by twelve.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
So that's one two legs to go, and I don't
have anything home yet. All of two of mine are underway.
And then if we can get there. We're looking for
the Clippers later right now, looking for the Nuggets and
the Bucks. So hopefully despite the People's Parlay being dead,
we can have a profitable night. Maybe we can even
have an amazing night, if in fact we could bring
you in another People's Parlay a little bit later on.

(08:01):
That's where we stand the show plays at this moment.
I am eager, as I'm sure people out there listening,
are four championship Sunday in the NFL, and look, make
no other plans. This is the first weekend now in
a few weeks, as it relates to football, that there's
no Saturday football. So go out, enjoy your Saturday, do

(08:23):
whatever it is that you do, and then lock the
hell in come Sunday, folks, because you have got Commanders
Eagles three o'clock, Eastern Bill's Chiefs six point thirty. That
is a nice afternoon into your evening. No family plans, No,
let's go out for dinner, No, uh huh, sit down,
watch this NFL Final four because we got three games left.

(08:44):
We are running out of football. College is over. Football
is almost over. Let's soak it in. Let's enjoy it.
This second game that we haven't spent as much time
on again. We're going to do our deep dive with
Capaccio and Lichens in a little bit top of the
next hours. When that begins, you have the Bills winners
of two in a row, fifteen and four overall including

(09:06):
the playoffs, Chiefs sixteen and two. One of the only blemishes,
the only legitimate blemish, because I don't count that thirty
eight nothing whatever. It was lost to the Broncos in
Week eighteen when nobody played JV squad out there against
Denver who had to win, and the Chiefs just said,
go ahead, be our guest.

Speaker 3 (09:24):
Yeah, do not let the Cincinnati Bengals into the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (09:26):
One legitimate loss that came to Buffalo Chiefs outside of
that effectively perfect nine to zero at home this year,
and the expectation is a close game. I personally believe
the Bills are going to win. And I know we
talked about this a little bit last night, for oh

(09:48):
so many reasons.

Speaker 4 (09:50):
It just feels dumb. It feels dumb.

Speaker 2 (09:54):
To bet against Patrick Mahomes this time of year, and
you dug up a litany of stats that support that
very thing that we will give you when we really
expand this conversation later. But no matter which side of
the fence that you are on with this, I would
say most people believe it's going to be a close
game coin flip.

Speaker 3 (10:13):
I totally think it's going to be a coin flip.

Speaker 4 (10:15):
That in mind.

Speaker 2 (10:18):
You thought of a show investment that I think is
a good unique look and people should pay attention to.

Speaker 3 (10:23):
It, definitely, and especially if you're like me and I
do not have that conviction in Buffalo right now, but
I also don't have the conviction in Kansas City at
the moment either, So why not bet on both teams?
I'm listening in a way, Okay, I think this game
is going to be decided within a touchdown either way,
as it historically has been between these two squads. Four

(10:46):
out of the last five meetings ADAM have been decided
by six or less points when the Chiefs and the
Bills line up. Now, that takes us all the way
back to January of twenty twenty two, so you got
two playoff games in there. Two regular season this season.
It was a nine point Buffalo win to break that
streak there, but I think they go right back to that.
I think this is gonna be close one, it's gonna

(11:07):
probably head towards a shootout. We might even get overtime
here in this. But if you go to DraftKings right now,
either team to win by one to six points is
plus three forty. So I'm thinking, why not split up
a show unit on each So half unit for Buffalo

(11:28):
to win by one point one to six at plus
three forty. Another half unit on Kansas City to win
by one point one one to six at plus three forty.
So that way, if this game is a you know,
if it's within six points either way, we should profit.
I believe one point two units.

Speaker 2 (11:44):
Yeah, you would, we as long as the game is
decided within six which you guarantee yourself if it should
happen to go to overtime. And I'm sure a lot
of people are considering, like, hey, do we just place
the the overtime bet on that, which we can look
up the best odds on that.

Speaker 3 (11:57):
Plus fourteen hundred or something like that.

Speaker 2 (11:58):
Something to consider, sure, But if you don't want to
go all the way in on that, you just want
to say, I think it'll be a close game.

Speaker 4 (12:05):
Maybe there's a walk off field goal or.

Speaker 2 (12:07):
Field goals decided in the final you know minute, whatever
it may be, and you get that one to six margin,
like you're saying, yeah, we guarantee ourselves one point two
units in profit.

Speaker 3 (12:17):
As long as we if we're doing a half unit
on each correct And that's why I think we should
do a half unit because if this is a if
it does get over a touchdown or something like that,
we're only losing one unit instead of two units, right
with how we've been hemorrhaging as of No.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
It makes sense. It's a it's a strong look. I
support it. I think we should lock it in.

Speaker 3 (12:36):
Yeah. I like this, and like if you go to
other sports books too, I think like Caesars has something similar,
and the Chiefs are like plus two eighty and Buffalo's
plus three ten, so it's different. DraftKings has a nice
and even same number on either side.

Speaker 4 (12:49):
Yeah, I do.

Speaker 5 (12:50):
I do.

Speaker 2 (12:50):
I believe in the Bills. I believe in the Bills.
I feel like it's the Bill's time. That's not good analysis.
I realize I'll give you better analysis a little bit
later on. But I like Buffalo to win this game,
and candidly, because you know, I'm thinking about what's my
people's parlay pick gonna be for the football weekend and
all that.

Speaker 4 (13:09):
I'm between a few things in my head.

Speaker 2 (13:11):
But the first thing I thought of the whole, like
go with your gut is we like to say around here.
I was thinking about Bill's money line plus one ten
best places you can find it, and then I thought,
while I believe in it, while I will personally invest
in it, not a good show play.

Speaker 4 (13:29):
Here's why.

Speaker 2 (13:31):
We are already invested in the Bills to win the AFC,
which is the same bet, except we got that at
plus three hundred on MGM. So I'm just doubling down
at that point in time, and if it loses, we
lose two units. Now I'm not gonna hedge it, which
I realized I could do. I could just take the
Chiefs on the money line or Chiefs with the points,
whatever it may be, and if it loses and the

(13:51):
Bills win, we're guaranteed profit obviously, because again we have
three to one on Buffalo.

Speaker 4 (13:58):
I just don't really want to do that. I really
want to hedge it.

Speaker 2 (14:00):
That's it feels like accepting defeat. It's my whole thing
with hedging. We've talked about this before.

Speaker 3 (14:06):
In this case, it could just be accepting mahomes.

Speaker 2 (14:09):
Sure like thanos inevitable. Plus, I have a hedging sour
taste in my mouth after what happened with Jason Tatum
last night.

Speaker 3 (14:19):
That's true.

Speaker 2 (14:20):
Finally decide to hedge for the first time, and not
the first time, but the first really notable time. It
was probably my biggest hedge I've ever done, and blew
up in my face. I should just let it ride.
I would have come out with more profit dumb, but
I realize a lot of people like to do. It
just felt dumb for me. So I'm back to some

(14:40):
other things that I'll explore a little bit later on.
I'll talk to the show about talk to all of
you out there listening about.

Speaker 1 (14:47):
If there are games to be played, there are bets
to be made.

Speaker 4 (14:51):
I'll bet you.

Speaker 1 (14:51):
Twenty bucks I can get you gambled before the end
of the day.

Speaker 4 (14:54):
No way, hardy to be three.

Speaker 5 (14:55):
To one eyes to.

Speaker 1 (15:00):
Get ahead of line movement, find in game value, and
hear the latest insights from your favorite industry experts.

Speaker 5 (15:07):
This is my gambler.

Speaker 4 (15:08):
If I win, we all win.

Speaker 1 (15:09):
Tell your smart speaker to play that gambler with Adam
Kaufman on w RKO on iHeartRadio.

Speaker 2 (15:24):
Hour number two, The Gambler with Adam Kaufman here on WRKO.
Well as promised football the rest of the way, we'll
sprinkle in bemoaning about the Celtics performance against the Lakers.
The game hasn't even started yet, but I know I
know what we're gonna be feeling, what we're gonna be
saying Dan about that game. But it's football time. We
did our deep dive in the NFC Commanders Eagles yesterday.

(15:47):
Tonight it's the game that people feel maybe a little
more unsure about universally, the virtual Pick Them taking place
in Kansas City between the two time defending champion Chiefs
and one team that they legitimately lost to this year.
The Buffalo Bills were pretty damn good and I think
we're gonna win. Pull the small upset plus one ten

(16:10):
on the money line, folks. Sal Capaccio covers the Bills.
He is a sideline host and reporter wgr on Twitter
at sal Sports and a good friend of this program
as well. We've been bugging him a lot lately because
this team just continues to win, and we hope to
be able to bug him again sometime in the next
two weeks before the Super Bowl. Sal ha's the mood

(16:30):
out there.

Speaker 5 (16:33):
It's I guess a little nervous anticipation. Right.

Speaker 6 (16:36):
We've been here before, the Bills have, and I think
people are just really kind of afraid of having it
end in heartbreak again like it has so many times
for not only the Bills but all Buffalo sports teams
throughout history, but especially this team in this situation against
that team, right, But they also know that, you know,
there's just sixty minutes separating them from you know, something

(16:57):
that has not been around here in thirty plus years.

Speaker 2 (17:01):
This team obviously took care of Kansas City regular season,
so I know it doesn't mean as much. But that
game just before the bye for Buffalo anyway back in
Week eleven, a thirty to twenty one win. It was
part of a nice winning street. Josh Allen did well.
He wasn't exceptional, but he did well in that game.
You know, rush for fifty five yards on twelve attempts.
He was the leading rusher on that side and almost

(17:22):
for the game if not for Kareem huntlet sixty on
the other side, passed for a touchdown, ran for one.

Speaker 4 (17:27):
Khalil Shakir Well.

Speaker 2 (17:28):
I think people should absolutely be paying attention to prop
wise going into this game, went eight for seventy in
that contest, and good contributions as well from Curtis Samuel,
Amari Cooper, Dawson Knox, even Mac Collins. What's the outlook
offensively going into this game for a Bills team that
even in close games continues to pile up the points.

Speaker 6 (17:51):
Yeah, you know, this team has had the mentality all year.
Their mantra actually going into the year before the year
started was everybody eats, meaning not that the numbers are
going to be super fast for everybody, but everybody has
to contribute. This is not a one receiver centric offense
like it was with Stefan Diggs or even two with
Diggs and Gave Davis. This is an offense that they
really went into the season with the mindset of, you know,

(18:12):
we're gonna spread the ball around and if you want
to cover one guy, we'll go to the other guy,
and nobody's going to care who gets the accolades. You know,
there's a lot of skepticism out about that, even from myself,
and look at they don't have anybody that's really had
these eye popping numbers at wide receiver.

Speaker 5 (18:24):
But every week when you go into it and be
honest with you, I couldn't tell you who it's going
to be. Right last week, I actually thought the best
matchup was on the perimeter with a Maury Cooper and
Keon Coleman against the Ravens. W't guess what they had
like they did nothing last week, and the Bill still.

Speaker 6 (18:37):
You know, we're able to attack and through the ball.
Wasn't a ton of success throwing, but they were able
to do it. So I just, you know, don't really
know where it's going to come from this week and
any week. It could be Ty Johnson out of the backfield.
It could be Kaloshakir as you said he is their
leading receiver. It could be Dalton Kincaid at tight end,
or it could be maybe an Amari Cooper or Keon Coleman.

Speaker 3 (18:56):
So sal the past couple of times that there at
least when they play in Kansas City in the playoffs,
the Bills, Josh Allen just he had to do everything.
He had to be superman. But he's been really impressive here.
And I think I'm borrowing a phrase from you last
week when you were on with us that he knows
when to take the cape off, and I feel like
he did exactly that last week against Baltimore. I mean
he finished with under one hundred and fifty all purpose

(19:19):
yards for him, which that did spurn my co host here, Adam.
He doesn't like to talk about it, but I just
got to bring it up once or twice. Josh does
not have to do everything this time that this team
just feels so well balanced compared to previous years.

Speaker 6 (19:33):
Yeah, for sure, And really that has been the mentality,
not only on top of the everybody, each of the
receiving corps, but even in the running back room.

Speaker 5 (19:40):
They have three excellent running backs guys.

Speaker 6 (19:42):
You know James Cook, Ray Davis, who saw have a
nice game last week when he came in against the Ravens,
had some nice runs. In Ty Johnson, who is one
of the better third down backs in the league. I
mean he's on the field, you don't know if he's
going to pass block, he's.

Speaker 5 (19:52):
Going to go out into a route. The Bills could
really do so much. They also bring in a six
offensive lineman a lot right, Alec Anderson. They're so good
at running that extra set where they'll bring in a
six offensive linean they'll pound the ball at you. This
is really, this is really the way that Sean mcdermot's
been wanting to play football for the last several years,
and it's let's not just relign our quarterback all the time.
I think Sean gets a bit of a bad rap up.

(20:13):
He's not a three yards and a cloud of dust guy.
That's not it. I just think he believes that you
have to be able to win a multiple ways in
multiple games. You can't just rely on one way to
win all the time because that'll get you in the end.

Speaker 6 (20:23):
And it has, and that's why they're doing that. They'll
bring in the six offensive lineman, then they'll throw the
ball out of it and they're very good at that
as well. So no doubt, you know, they're a very
balanced team. Josh doesn't have to do it all. And
I think for Josh, for himself, he's just in such
a good space right now. You know, he's protecting the ball,
he's taking care of it. You're still getting the wild
plays every once in a while, but you're not getting
the turnovers. You know, he got engaged earlier this year,

(20:44):
and I just think, you know, there's a lot in
his life. I think in football in personal that's kind
of coincided here with him just really being in a
great space and consistent and you know, really on top
of what he needs to do every week.

Speaker 2 (20:58):
Now, the Bills are six and three right up in
the playoffs going back to twenty twenty one, scoring at
least twenty one points now ironically zero to three against
the Chiefs, six to zero against everybody else. But some
of those Chiefs teams you know you couldn't really win
a shootout against, or at least you didn't feel good
about it. I don't really look at this Chief's team

(21:19):
the same way. You know, last week, Yeah, they beat
the Texans, obviously they should have, but they were outgained
yardage wise three thirty eight to two twelve. I mean
that is a significant margin, obviously, So I think if
if the Bills were able to get into a shootout
in this game, or if it came down to getting
into a shooout, I know that Travis Kelcey was a
complete non factor in the regular season meeting, and they

(21:42):
use them differently in the playoffs. Now they've ripped off
all the bubble rap and all that stuff. But you
know I when it comes to offense, I have more confidence.
I have more faith in this Buffalo team and Josh Allen.

Speaker 6 (21:54):
Well, look, if you look at the numbers and the
scoring this year, you know, the Chiefs have broken thirty
points zero times. They hit thirty exactly once this year
and that was against the Carolina Panthers. They have not
scored over thirty points, as you guys know. They Surrey twice,
excuse me one other game against Tampa, but they haven't
scored over thirty one. And on the other side, the
Bills actually had eight games in a row where they
scored at least thirty points. Right, So I think offensively,

(22:16):
you're right. You know, the Bills can get into a
shootout partly because they just take care of the football
and they with Josh Allen, if you're not going to
turn the ball over, your drives areing to end in points.

Speaker 5 (22:26):
I think they had close to it. I think they
had three points per drive, which is pretty historic actually
them and the Lions. Going to the last week of
the year when the Bills played their backups, they had
that number. That being said, I still look at the
Chiefs on the other side and say, he's still Patrick Mahomes,
You have Travis Kelcey, they're getting Xavier Worthy involved more.
You sill DeAndre Hopkins, like, I don't know if I
don't think you'll want to get into a shootout with

(22:46):
that team, to be quite honest.

Speaker 6 (22:47):
For the Bills, I think it's still about, you know,
limiting their own mistakes and making sure that they do
what they can and have to do on defense to
try and force some turnovers, where the Kansasaity Chiefs have
also been very good at protecting them.

Speaker 5 (23:00):
I think the last time they had to turnover was
that week eleven game against the Bills.

Speaker 3 (23:05):
All Right, the injuries, it appears, are starting to pile
up on the defensive side of the football. Sal for
Buffalo Milano Johnson rap All on the injury report, what's
the latest with those guys.

Speaker 5 (23:15):
Yeah, I think everybody's gonna play except for Taylor rap.
Matt Mlono had what Sean McDermott called hamstring soreness. But
he's been at practicing this week, so that's good. He
said he didn't wouldn't even necessarily characterize it as an injury.
But look, we've seen Matt Milano really ramping it up lately.
And he's starting to get really back into form after
missing a year and a half of football, and now
he's starting to play. I'm not going to say like

(23:36):
all pro Matt Malano, but he's certainly been a factor
over the last couple of weeks in the playoffs. Tarren
Johnson did hurt his shoulder in the game last week.
He was a full participate yesterday and a walkthrough. That's
a estimation, but he was limited today. But Terren's a dog.
You know, he'll he'll play.

Speaker 6 (23:50):
He'll be out there, you know, maybe a little bit sore,
but that'll be okay. And then Christian Benford is in
the concussion protocol. You never know how things go with that,
but he he's already on the field this week, so
obviously that's a good side.

Speaker 5 (24:00):
He progressive.

Speaker 6 (24:00):
Taylor Rap is a is a tough one. I think
Taylor Rap to me, he's turning towards not playing. He
has at practice in two days. He has a hip
injury that was pretty looks pretty bad, and he was
in a lot of pain last week, even though mc
derrick called him day to day. I do wonder about that, guys,
because now listen and Taylor Rep's position. They're going to
have a rookie and Cole Bishop. And I like the
Cole Bishop. He's played really well, but you're playing it.

(24:23):
There's a different animal.

Speaker 5 (24:23):
Now you're going to Kiyosas City against all that speed
that we just talked about in Patrick Mahomes. I can
almost guarantee you that Patrick Mahomes at some point is
going to test Cole Bishop at Debar Hamblin Deep.

Speaker 2 (24:32):
You mentioned when it comes to the offense, the everybody
eats mantra. That being said, and you acknowledge this, Shakir
is the number one receiver for this team. And I
realized that, you know, a little up and down at
points during the regular season, although target volume and generally
the receptions were there. When I say up and down,
I guess I'm more mean yardage wise. But in the
playoffs six for six for sixty one against Denver, six

(24:55):
for seven for sixty seven against Baltimore, regular season meeting,
as I mentioned, eight for twelve for seventy against Kansas City,
and we're looking at a prop line for him of
sub sixty mid fifties, depending on where you look. I'm
looking at FanDuel fifty five and a half I mean
that just seems like, you know, if he stays healthy
and available a smash spot, that Josh Allen is going

(25:17):
to be leaning on his guy.

Speaker 5 (25:19):
Yeah. Possibly. I wonder what the Chiefs do with Trent McDuffie.
Though he's such a good corner, you know, he could
decide they could put him anywhere on the field, right.
We've seen that, and I think that could dictate where
the Bills go. And look, because everybody eats. If you
see mcduffy on Shakir at all, then Allan looks somewhere else.
But I like that as well.

Speaker 6 (25:35):
I think I heard I think Mina Kimes was the
one that said something about maybe you and I have
to look at this. The numbers tight ends against the
Chiefs have actually been a little successful this year, so
maybe attacking them at the second level they have athletic linebackers.
With me, that's an area where they've been a little
bit vulnerable. So maybe don't kincaid factors in. I'll also
tell you that I think the prop on Dawson NX
is like a catch and a half and that's dicey,

(25:56):
but he's actually played pretty well against the Chiefs over
the years.

Speaker 5 (26:00):
He's been one of Josh Allen's favorite targets in this game.
But again with Dawson Knox healthy, which remember he didn't
play last game against them, Dwston Knox did not play.
I'm sorry, Dalton Kink Dalton kin Kay did not play
the last time these two teams played. If he is,
you know, he's their number one tight end that Dawston knots.
But they'll both still play, and they'll both probably see
a couple of targets at least.

Speaker 2 (26:18):
Now you're right, one and a half minus won away
and unfandal and he went four for forty on six
targets in that last meeting.

Speaker 3 (26:24):
So yeah, sal did Buffalo do something different against Travis
Kelcey in the regular season here this year because he
had just two catches for eight yards in that game
this season. But the three times that these two teams
had met up in the playoffs, we have thirteen catches
one hundred and eighteen yards, two touchdowns, eight catches ninety
six yards and a touchdown, five catches seventy five yards
and two touchdowns. So what is the game plan when

(26:47):
it comes to trying to contain Travis Kelcey.

Speaker 6 (26:50):
Well, I think last year in the playoffs is yes,
I know the numbers are very good even before that,
but last year was a tough one because the Bills
just had no linebackers left guys. I mean they literally
called I mean not even.

Speaker 5 (27:02):
Joking when I say they literally pulled AJ Client out
of retirement that week just to come and play linebacker.
Right he's aj Client has tried to cover Travis Kelce
down the field on one leg and just you knew
how that was going to end up, but it did
in that game. So I think that was part of it.
The injuries.

Speaker 6 (27:15):
Now you have a healthy Terro Bernard.

Speaker 5 (27:17):
Now you have him.

Speaker 6 (27:18):
By the way, the Bills also didn't have Thoro Bernard
that game. But now you have Mat Molano and Toro Bernard.
You didn't have them in that playoff game. I think
in years past, you know, tight ends have hurt the Bills,
but they've really done a nice job of mixing up
coverage on them, and if you look throughout this year,
tight ends really haven't done a lot of damage on
the Bills. If you go back to that first game,
I think Noah Gray caught two touchdown passes. They were

(27:38):
able to target him because the Bills focused and were
able to do a good job on Travis Kelce and
obviously the Chiefs have, you know, a few different tight
ends they like to throw to. So yeah, Kelsey can
wreck a game, There's no doubt about it. And the
changeup loss we I think is just understanding, you know,
where those tight ends are and taking different approaches, which
is one game, it might be Taron Johnson on the
tight end a little bit more, but he gives up size.

Speaker 5 (27:59):
Next it might be Matt Mulano. Then it might be
a little bit of a bracket. But I think Sean
McDermott has done a good job of mixing up those coverages.

Speaker 2 (28:07):
Before we let you go, sal And I know Kansas
City is a tough place to play for anybody nine
to oh this year obviously and historically since you know
Mahomes arrived. But the Bills sitting as good as they
are overall at fifteen and four. They are five and
four on the road this year. Do they look like
a different team to you playing outside of Buffalo.

Speaker 6 (28:29):
No, No, I wouldn't say that at all. I mean, look,
they went to Detroit and beat them. You know, they
beat the two number one seeds. You know in each
respective conference. I think one of those games was in
New England at the end of the year when they're
arresting their starters. They they had two really bad games
early in the year, both on the road. One was
at the Baltimore Ravens where they got smacked and then
they came home and beat Baltimore obviously last week. And

(28:49):
then one was at the Houston Texans that was clearly Josh's,
you know, worst game.

Speaker 5 (28:53):
Of the year.

Speaker 6 (28:53):
I don't think this team is any different on the road.
And look, there's a place that they're very familiar with.
These are two like division opponents basically right at won
to Arrowhead. They've seen themselves do it. They've won their
in the regular season, of course, not in the playoffs.
So I don't think the road matters only in so
much as maybe the crowd, noise, getting to your checks,
things like that on the offensive side. So you know,

(29:13):
they're very familiar with the Arrowhead and the problems it presents.

Speaker 2 (29:18):
Sal Capaccio again, host and reporter over at WGR in Buffalo.
He will be there at Arrowhead taking it all in firsthand,
and I hope we will have an opportunity to chat
with Sal again, not to debrief the season, but to
look ahead to the Super Bowl in the weeks to come.

Speaker 4 (29:34):
Here.

Speaker 2 (29:34):
Get them on Twitter at sal sports. Sal thanks so much.
Enjoy the game, yeah.

Speaker 5 (29:39):
For sure, guys.

Speaker 6 (29:40):
Last time they were there in twenty twenty was the
COVID year, so we on the radio crew could not
travel to the game. So how about you know, this
is my first time calling an ANFC championship game, so
I'm really look forward to it and I hope I
can talk with.

Speaker 5 (29:51):
You guys again.

Speaker 2 (29:52):
For sure, very cool. Enjoy it. That'll be awesome. We're
gonna step aside when we come back. We will have
Dusty Lichens with us from out there doing Kansas City
Radio at ninety six to five. The fan will get
the case perspective when we come back.

Speaker 1 (30:07):
Locks, Leans and everything in between.

Speaker 4 (30:12):
It says here we should work in teams. It wants
to be my spator.

Speaker 5 (30:16):
I don't think you should be doing too much gambling tonight.
Alan gambling does anything about gambling. It's not gambling when you.

Speaker 1 (30:22):
Know you're gonna win. Now back to Boston's only nightly
betting show, The Gambler with Adam Kaufman. Listen on the
iHeartRadio app or your smart speaker.

Speaker 2 (30:39):
As soon as we look ahead to Bill's, Chiefs one
gets to go to the Super Bowl. Bill's when was
the last time they were there? Was it when they
lost the four in a row? Yeah, been a bit yep.
Chiefs meanwhile, very familiar with that setting, and they've won
the last two. Looking at three pete, that's something hasn't
been done in a while, as we know around here.

(31:00):
Three some numbers. Dan was kind enough to send over
to me earlier. Patrick Mahomes fifteen and two straight up
in home or neutral site games in January and February
in his career, forty three and six straight up in
that spot November or later, Mahomes seven and zero straight
up and against the spread as an underdog or favored

(31:21):
of less than a field goal, covering the spread by
about six points. Mahomes is twenty three and two straight
up in his career in home games in November or
later when the temperature is forty degrees or below, winning
his last twenty outright since a loss to Tom Brady
in the twenty nineteen playoffs. So as we welcome in,

(31:42):
Dusty Lichens does talk radio out there in Kansas City
ninety six to five to fan. We'll screw it, man,
I guess we just give it to you guys. We'll
see Kse back in the super Bowl.

Speaker 5 (31:52):
Huh yeah, I mean who says no to that? Right?
I mean you guys had your time, you know, like,
let us live a little bit. You know it's gonna
be over and you know three years or four years
from now, and then somebody else will step up. Who knows,
maybe it's Washington with their uh, with their young studded quarterback.
But can I can I ask a question real quick,
like before we get into like because I have no

(32:13):
idea what we're talking about. We know this Kansas City,
New England? Whoever, Like, did you guys ever feel the
fatigue of like, what's the next excuse from like national media?
Because I always remember like watching the Patriots grow up.
I'm thirty seven, so like I grew up with Tom
Brady just destroying everyone's dreams.

Speaker 3 (32:32):
Sure, but like, did you.

Speaker 5 (32:33):
Guys, do you guys ever get tired of this when
it would be like, well, we know Tom Brady's gonna
get the call, like he always gets to talk. Well
the Bnard Pollard play not to bring any PTSD into
that from like piece New England, but like, you know,
like ever, like was it like that where you guys
just like embraced it where it was like, you know what,
we don't care what they say, like we're the best team,
we're the best quarterback, we're the best at a coach,

(32:54):
Like We're just gonna keep winning and let everybody else,
like you know, cry and complain. Like how was that
for you guys?

Speaker 2 (33:00):
Yeah, there have been expressions around here. Feel free to
use them if you're not already US against the world.
That was a big one with the Patriots. They hate
us because they ain't us. That was a pretty popular
one as well. No, I mean I wouldn't say we
tired of it. I would say we reveled in it,
because again, nothing lasts forever. I mean, it lasted for
two decades here, which is, you know, pretty incredible by

(33:21):
any sports standards, let alone the NFL with the turnover obviously.
But that said, because I know where you're coming from
and asking this question, you have to feel like I
feel like I me personally, I certainly wouldn't speak for
everyone around here. I felt like I could remove some
level of bias along the way, for instance, I could

(33:44):
have a conversation with somebody about the tuck rule and
entertain the other side that type of thing when you're
watching some of these games and the calls that Mahomes
does get when it comes to throwing himself into a
defender just to get official to look over to him
and throw that flag in the same way the NBA,

(34:06):
you know, wiped out James Harden basically doing the same
thing to draw fouls in the last couple of years.
I mean, it has to even to you guys in
casey feel a little egregious at times, doesn't it.

Speaker 5 (34:20):
Yeah, I mean it's tough because we're still kind of
in this Like every year there's like a different chapter.
Right Like last year was they were eleven six, nobody
could catch a football. They took a rookie and the
second year running back into the playoffs with Travis Kelce
and kind of did their thing. But I mean, look
like the flop on the sidelines, like he came out.
Mahomes is who we're talking about here. He came out

(34:43):
and the apologized like I shouldn't do that, Like I
kind of respect that sort of like sports integrity, Like
it kind of takes a certain someone to go out
there and be like you know what, like, yeah, I
was trying to get the call, like I shouldn't have
done that. That's on me. But like the other thing too,
is like we forget that. Yes, football right now and
for the last ten years has been the mecca of

(35:04):
sports and everybody is watching. And like your Patriots in
you know, the late nineties and basically all of the
early two thousands, you guys were basically the one team
that was on TV more than anybody in the world.
Just kind of like the Chiefs are right now like
the number one team. Like this game against Buffalo will
set record viewing viewership, like to the new level. Like

(35:25):
I saw a number Baltimore and Buffalo pull the forty two,
you know, million views, and last year the Division Round
between the Chiefs and Bills full of fifty. This thing
Sunday is gonna pull that same sort of number, if
not more, and everyone's gonna watch. So everyone's gonna see
every play. Whereas you know on Sunday we watch red Zone,
we just see the highlights. We don't watch every Eagles
in Washington play. We don't watch every Dallas thankfully, and

(35:47):
Giants game, you know, play by play, but there's probably
calls in those games. Now to your point and to
the fatigue of maybe it is what it is. Yet
there are times where like, you know, there's a play
and I'm in the living room, my buddy's going, we
got one there, guys, like, let's not let's not sugarcoat this,
Like we're in Kansas City. They gave us that. That's fine,
but like also like it happens for everybody in every sport.

(36:10):
Like sure, watching watching the Red Soxing Yankees, how many
times did Jeter get the ball call on the outside
black We're like, come on, like that's a strike, But
of course it's Jeter and pinstripes. He gets the ball
because it's who he is, or it's you know, Bonds
in the in the early two thousands getting the ball call.
But yeah, I mean there's times where I'll be honest,
like maybe not every Kansasity radio host would say this,

(36:32):
but I'll be honest. We're like, I'm watching games with
my friends and there's a call that gets called him, like,
you know, we'll take it. I'm not mad about it.
You know, you you have a certain hand in blackjack,
you hit when the table says, don't do it, We're
going to disown you. But you hit it and it
saves you. You're like, well, I want my money.

Speaker 2 (36:48):
Sorry about you, guys, Dan, I mean it's we don't
need to blabor this. We're going to preview the game.
But the I don't blame Mahomes. I don't need Mahomes
to come out and apologize for for you know, whatever
the flopping or like, if you're gonna get the call,
go get the call. Like this is a referee issue,
if anything, it's not a Mahomes issue. It's not chiefs issue.

(37:09):
Go ahead, let them do their Like this comes back
to the officiating. I think that's where people nationally are griping.

Speaker 3 (37:15):
But go ahead, Dan, Yeah, no, I totally agree. It's
not like Patrick Mahomes physically made those two Texans defenders
smash each other's smash off each other's heads there to
get that flag. But Dusty, as we start to look
towards this game, what's the vibe in case he is
it you know this like immense pressure of trying to
be the first team to ever threepeat, or is it
you know a little bit of like the here comes

(37:36):
Buffalo again. We've beaten them every single time in the playoffs,
but maybe they're finally due. They're playing a little differently
than they have in the past, more balanced. What's what's
the vibe right now?

Speaker 5 (37:46):
Yeah, I'm scared to death with Josh Allen's hair. That's
a new animal man. Like, that's a that's a different
breed of human man. Like he's got these this flowing lock.
I'm like, man, this man is breeding confidence. He's engaged,
no in all seriousness, you know, Like I keep taking
the similarities back to your guys' dynasty runs of you know,
twenty years, Like it's interesting because here we have you know,

(38:07):
college sports as well, like the Kansas Jayhawks, Like nobody
really gets nervous until the Sweet sixteen and your guys
heyday Divisional round. Yeah, like you know there might be
a team like you know, this team might have a chance,
but really it got oh.

Speaker 4 (38:21):
For this game.

Speaker 3 (38:22):
Yeah, two seasons.

Speaker 5 (38:25):
Right, it's the AFT Championship game and then it's can
you go disrupt somebody's NFC Championship run? And I think
that's where we're at, Like it's pretty even. Keel and
I think if you took a poll of like you know,
one hundred thousand Kansas City fans or you can you
can numb it down even more like a thousand Kansaity fans.
You'd be like, okay, ASC Championship game. Insert team. It's
been Cincinnati, it's been Buffalo, it's been Baltimore. And for

(38:47):
the last I don't know seven years in the NFL,
those have been the three teams that, like Tannis team
knockoff Kansas City, And it seems every year at least
that one other than Cincinnati, that one year where Mahomes
had the worst second half of his career. Not to
give excuses, but look at the numbers. You can look
it up. It was terrible. But like this is the
game where like Josh Allen's that quarterback right, Like this

(39:09):
is to keep going back to your guys' run, like
this is playing Peyton right, Like you know Tom can
do it. He's done it many times before. You know
Tom was the guy. Like if twelve has the ball
with a minute and eighteen seconds left, hey, Vinitari's gonna
come in and kick the field goal. We're not that
time where it's like if Mahomes has the ball with
a minute fifteen lins Watcher's gonna come in and hit

(39:29):
it from forty yards and the Chiefs are gonna move on.
But still to be an honest, an individual person that
has actual feelings. You play Josh Allen, you play Buffalo.
You got to think to yourself at some point, like
enough is enough and it's time for a change. You know,
not to take an Owen heartline out of this from
the Attitude era, but like that's like something that you know,
you try to find yourself to believe, like is this

(39:50):
the year? And if it's not, when is it? Like
when the when does the next person stuff up and
say you know what, Yeah it was Brady, Yeah it
was Burrow. When is it gonna be next person? And
like this is the year where like Josh Allen has
been that guy, like it's his MVP season. They dismantled
that team. They basically said, you're our superman. Now you've
got to go in the arrowhead where you've never done

(40:11):
it before. And oh, by the way, they're trying to
do something that no other team has ever done before
in the NFL won a three piece. So there's a
lot of pressure on both sides, and I think when
you add up what is on the line with greatness
and with what is like destiny for the Chiefs. But
what also is like here's the Bills again, like the
number four is not a good number for the Bills franchise,

(40:33):
Like can they finally do it? Because if they don't
do it this year, then like when the hell do
they do it? And that's the thing where everybody's out
on that side. But also I think with the Chiefs,
it's like, man, Josh Allen's a stone cold killer, and
I don't know if you're a normal sportsman, but he
has to give you that sort of feeling in your
gut of like this is the one guy that I
think could do it to Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (40:53):
Travis Kelcey put up one hundred yards in one game
in the regular season the middle of the year. He
was a complete non factor two catches, four targets, eight
yards in a game against the Bills back in mid November.
But of course, as predicted around here and has expected
probably everywhere, you know, the cape comes on, the bubble

(41:16):
wrap comes off when you get to the postseason. Seven
for eight for one to seventeen and a touchdown against
the Texans in that win last week. How do we
expect him to be used here in this game?

Speaker 5 (41:28):
Yeah, Bill Belichick's not the coach in New England anymore.
So that's a great sigh of relief because I believe
the first time and the only time the Chiefs and
the Patriots for each other in the ASC Championship game,
which you guys won, I think Kelsey had like three
catches for maybe even like less than eight yards. But look,
this is this is what it is. This is where
this team has has gotten to that luxurious point within

(41:50):
their dynasty run. Is they know exactly what they have
to do when they have to do it. I know
that sounds arrogant. I'm sure there's people that hate that
sort of statement, but look like you just mentioned it.
One time in the season, he had one hundred yards
and gets a week off, gets another week off, and
then the first game one hundred and seventeen catches on
seven or one hundred and seventy yards on seven catches

(42:11):
a touchdown, probably gonna had two. But he's not as
young as he used to be. He's got a little
bit more you know, you know, baggage in the car.
But look, it's weird how it works, and it's weird
how it's predicted, Like even you guys said, we predicted
it's gonna happen. He's gonna show up in the playoffs.
This is that load management type of thing that happens
in the NFL. And a team that has done this
for many years now going for a three peat, they

(42:33):
know when the season really starts, and you guys knew
it too, Like once January hits, it's like, okay, like
let's start adding the place of the playbook. Let's start
going back to our bread and butter or you know,
our our exes and o's that really seem to work.
And you know it's it's it's tough to be arrogant
in the situation where you say told you so. But
when the guy actually does produce and puts up one

(42:55):
hundred and seventeen in a touchdown in the playoff game,
the first one of the new season, it's like, we
can expect to see this, So look, I expect him
to be heavily targeted. I know Milano's gonna be in
this game. Ask the Milano how he did in the
thirteen second game the Chiefs played the Bills in. Wasn't great,
But the other two he's missed due to injury. Got
a hamstring, got a bicep injury going into this one.

(43:15):
But look, I think you go back to the well.
You stick what works well with you going forward. It
was always Brady and Gronk. It's always been Mahomes and Kelsey.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And for some reason,
when the lights get bright and the times get tough,
eighty seven and fifteen seem to find that connection that
is backyard football.

Speaker 3 (43:33):
Yeah, sixty seven and a half receiving yards, guys, is
his prop this weekend. He's gone over that in fourteen
straight playoff games.

Speaker 5 (43:39):
So hamrit Ham.

Speaker 3 (43:40):
It nice little trend there for Travis Kelcey. Feels crazy
to ask this question, Dusty, But are the Chiefs well
equipped this year? This year's version to get into a
shootout with Buffalo? And I bring that up because eight
times Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have matched up here
on the football field six and two. It's six and
two to the over, three and zero in the playoffs

(44:00):
to be over as well, we know Buffalo can score
thirty points with a snap of a finger. Kansas City,
though they just they haven't gotten to thirty one points
yet this season.

Speaker 5 (44:11):
Yeah, and I think, you know, I'm gonna sound a
little bit bias. Year. I know, the thing is, they
haven't had to get to that point. Now. Buffalo is
the only team to score thirty points or more against
Kinsey Chiefs since that Super Bowl win. The Chiefs beat
the Philadelphia Eagles two years ago, which is another one
of those like miraculous stats to say out loud, but look,
I think this is one of those games because I
believe in the game where Buffalo lost in the thirteen

(44:32):
second game according to Dvoa, I think they were the
number one offense, like the number four defense, so like essentially,
they were the best team with one of the best
defense in the best offenses. Last year Kansas City, I won,
the best defenses ended up giving up twenty four. They
won that game twenty seven to twenty four. This year,
I believe, you guys help me out with this. I
think the over at least right now from what I've
seen this forty seven and a half, I think this

(44:54):
is just one of those games where you can throw
away what the season stats were. This is two quarterbacks
going to up to each other. They know what each
other has on the line legacy wise, and know what
this game means. Where I think this is just where
talent takes over the stat sheet and I use a
lot of stats to defend my points, and you know,
they kind of work out in a certain way. But

(45:14):
this is one of those games where like, this is
an over my dead body game for both quarterbacks. And
I think that we can all agree that both of
these quarterbacks are the most talented, probably one A, one B.
If you were to pick a franchise to start, if
you had the second pick and someone took Mahomes, I
would assume the next pick would be Josh Allen. So
I think last year was twenty seven to twenty four.

(45:34):
There's been a score of forty two to thirty eight.
There's been a score of thirty eight to twenty eight. Look,
if history were to right itself, we're in for a
barn burner, We're in for a classic, whatever you want
to call it. I think the over hits. I don't
think defense is really going to be one of those
things where you look at and you're like, yeah, there
might be a sack, there might be a key turnover,
But I still think this game goes over forty seven

(45:55):
and a half. I think both teams move the ball,
and I think Monday morning, we're sitting back going did
anybody else pick up smoking after Sunday night watching that
Bills and Chiefs game?

Speaker 2 (46:03):
Last thing for you before we let you go, Dusty
in the Battle of Hailey Steinfeld and Taylor Swift. People
may have seen this number online, but the Chiefs seventeen
and three straight up, eleven eight and one against the
spread in games that Taylor attends, she is of course
expected to be there at Arrowhead supporting her future husband.

(46:24):
So give us a prediction for this one.

Speaker 5 (46:28):
Well, like how many says they Joe Taylor Swift, or
how many times we get a quote from Gromo and
Nance about a song, which is I know what you want,
I know what you need. That's the juice of this conversation. Look,
I'm I'm gonna take the Chiefs because of history and
because of the home field. And I know that sounds homersh.
I know that sounds bias, But I think this game
is an instant classic. I think we get another Buffalo

(46:49):
Kansas City, you know, debacle of Will there be a
call where there'll be a turnover. Give me my hometown
team thirty four, give me Buffalo thirty one. Butcker does
it once again, and the Chiefs will played Jaydon Daniels
in the Super Bowl for the National Championship, not the
National champions but the Super Bowl title.

Speaker 4 (47:05):
All one and the same.

Speaker 2 (47:06):
Dusty Likns again part of the ninety six five the
fan family in Kansas City.

Speaker 4 (47:12):
Thanks so much, man.

Speaker 2 (47:13):
And if it does come to pass that the Chiefs
moving on and you're off to New Orleans and all that,
I'm sure we'll come calling again.

Speaker 5 (47:23):
Yeah. I'll be there throwing snowballs and drinking hurricanes, which
is something I never thought i'd say for my first
time in New Orleans. So heeers of you guys, keep
doing great work, and we'll talk next week.

Speaker 4 (47:31):
Hopefully sounds great, man, appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (47:33):
We're gonna step aside more on these games, and of
course bank roll repairs before we close out the hour.

Speaker 1 (47:38):
Now back to the Gambler with Adam Kauffman on six
eighty w RKO streaming live on the iHeartRadio app, or
tell your smart speaker to play w RKO on iHeartRadio.
It's time for your bankroll repair powered by today's collision.

Speaker 2 (47:58):
Now, so normally on Thursday we have three bank for repairs.
But while our buddy Brian Budd is down there hob
knopping with Jason Sobel at Chili's in Florida, get no
right in vote from him?

Speaker 5 (48:14):
Right?

Speaker 3 (48:14):
No, nothing, I haven't seen anything, not even like a
golf player.

Speaker 1 (48:17):
No.

Speaker 3 (48:19):
Oh, for sure, he'd be picking Sobol's brain.

Speaker 2 (48:21):
I think that was the one time he even weighed
in on the text thread the whole time he's been gone.

Speaker 3 (48:24):
Yeah, probably has us muted. I'm sure I would. I say,
all right, bank.

Speaker 2 (48:31):
Roll repairs for the weekend or maybe tomorrow. What do
you have playing?

Speaker 3 (48:35):
Yeah, I'm doing something for tomorrow. Let's go with a
little two legger on a Friday night college basketball slate.
Let's go with Central Connecticut State and Purdue on the
money line. You put those two together plus one twenty
one on FANDL was the best I saw.

Speaker 2 (48:49):
All right, I maybe we'll have something for you tomorrow
or Saturday. But what I'm giving you right now for
the show is for Sunday, and it's an sg not
an SGP plus specifically, same game parlay for the game.
We've been talking about so far all night, the Bills
and the Chiefs.

Speaker 4 (49:07):
Four legs.

Speaker 2 (49:08):
Xavier Worthy twenty five plus receiving yards.

Speaker 4 (49:12):
He has hit this number in one, two, three, four, five, six.

Speaker 2 (49:18):
Seven eight straight games, and that includes sixty one yards
against the Bills. Khalil Shakir twenty five plus yards. He
is at this number in one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
eight nine ten eleven of his last twelve games, including

(49:38):
seventy against the Chiefs.

Speaker 4 (49:42):
Bills.

Speaker 2 (49:42):
I've told you, I think Buffalo is going to win
this game. Bills plus ten and a half, just looking
for him to keep it close. And then the other one.
The Chiefs team total altered down at least seventeen points.
That may sound like a lot. Maybe maybe it sounds

(50:03):
like a lot to you, but I will tell you
that they have scored at least seventeen points in every
playoff game that they have participated in since losing to
Tom Brady in twenty nineteen. That twenty nineteen season, twenty
three points against the Texans in the Divisional Round, this year,

(50:23):
last year twenty six, twenty seven, seventeen against Baltimore, twenty
five in the Super Bowl twenty twenty two, twenty seven,
twenty three, thirty eight, twenty twenty one season forty two,
forty two, twenty four, and that twenty twenty postseason twenty

(50:45):
two thirty eight nine when that defense for Tampa Bay
held him in check on that February seventh day. So again,
Bills plus ten and a half, Chiefs seventeen plus points,
Shakir and Worthy each with twenty five receiving yards and
that is even money on the nose plus one hundred

(51:06):
over at Van Duel Dan Sweet.

Speaker 3 (51:08):
Yeah, sounds good. I love the Shakir play. I can't
wait to talk to Jeff a little more about him
because his receptions prop five and a half and he's
been well over that. He's had six catches in each
playoff game so far at seven in his latest last season.
So that's it. That's a look right there.

Speaker 4 (51:22):
At plus money, receptions, yards, all of it. We'll be
back with Jeff Ulrick.

Speaker 1 (51:28):
Sweat your bets with Boston's only nightly betting.

Speaker 4 (51:32):
Show, Gambling.

Speaker 1 (51:34):
I try to keep the gambling to animal.

Speaker 4 (51:36):
How do you do that?

Speaker 1 (51:38):
But being good at the Gambler with Adam Kaufman streaming
live on the iHeartRadio app. Miss a moment subscribe to
the podcast. Back to Adam Kaufman and Dan Watkins.

Speaker 4 (51:57):
Back with a year, hour number three. We will do
so our deep.

Speaker 2 (52:01):
Dive looking at all things Chiefs, Bills and Eagles Commanders.
Here we expect to have Jeff ulricon with us from
Fantasy Life, popping on and giving us our breakdown obviously
into these two games, looking for best bets not just

(52:22):
side total, getting a little creative with some of these
different spots as well. I have some unique looks that
I was reading about that I am strongly thinking about
maybe even as an official show play for a people's parlay,
which we will build out in forty five minutes or so.
A lot coming your way. It's gonna be a lot
of fun here in this hour. As I mean, we

(52:43):
used to have to obviously race through these games, Dan,
it used to be, you know whatever, thirteen fourteen, fifteen games,
top plays across the board for everything. We're gonna have
really a lot of time to just expand and get
into this stuff, and I am excited about it. So
with that, let us bring on our good friend. Hasn't

(53:04):
been on the while, but we love numbers around here,
and this is for those scoring at home, I get
my little playbook here. Appearance number twenty four for Jeff
Ulrick of Fantasy Life. You can get him on Twitter
at the Fantasy Grind. Basically means he comes on every

(53:24):
thirteen fourteen shows on average. That's a pretty good clip there, Moose.

Speaker 7 (53:31):
I guess that's okay.

Speaker 1 (53:32):
It's not bad.

Speaker 7 (53:33):
I feel like you had me on more at the
stard But you know you've just tailed off.

Speaker 4 (53:37):
You know what it is?

Speaker 7 (53:38):
We be not being a good friend lately.

Speaker 2 (53:41):
No, we've expanded the well. Look, I'll let people behind
the curtain here. We don't pay you to come on
with us, so I'm being respectful of your time, not
asking you to come on every you know, once a week,
once every two weeks, like to spread it out for
you a little bit.

Speaker 5 (53:56):
True.

Speaker 7 (53:56):
If you ask me more, I'd just tell you to
screw off.

Speaker 2 (53:59):
You see, I don't want that. I don't like feeling rejected.

Speaker 5 (54:02):
You know.

Speaker 3 (54:02):
I will say, though, maybe we should be having Jeff
on more frequently, because, like he said at the beginning
of the show, we were hitting parlays.

Speaker 4 (54:09):
It's true constantly.

Speaker 3 (54:10):
You know, more often, and now we have less Jeff
and less parlay hits. So maybe we need.

Speaker 4 (54:14):
To he don't love that.

Speaker 2 (54:16):
We will give you some stats a little bit later
on in support of Moose, and we will build out
a eight people's parlay a little while. So here's what
we're going to do, multiple segments with Moose, typical of
a Thursday. We'll devote this one Chiefs Bills, next one
Eagles Commanders. Then we'll get into a parlay and some
of the other different unique ways to maybe bet these

(54:39):
games overall, such as what Dan talked about earlier. With
that close margin of victory, we can get Jeff's perspective
on that and almost an arbitrage type of approach, although
there is a way to lose it, but again we'll
explore that a little bit later on. It's funny I
was reading covers earlier today, Guys, I like this lead
in by the writer Jason and Logan. The Bulls had

(55:02):
the Detroit Pistons, Joey Chestnutt had Kobayashi, Prince had Michael Jackson,
and the Buffalo Bills have the Kansas City Chiefs. All
had their dragon to slay on the path to glory.
That in mind, here Moose, this right here is the
fourth AFC championship meeting between these teams in the last

(55:23):
five years. The Chiefs are three to zero. They are
obviously the perfect home team here in this one. They
are coming in as a very narrow favorite. You know,
I've advocated for the Bills on the money line at
plus one ten before we get into props and all
of that. How do you see this game playing out
when you consider again the very short spread, and on

(55:45):
top of that a total that is sitting universally now
at forty eight and a half.

Speaker 7 (55:53):
Yeah, I mean, maybe this is the spot for the Bills.
I mean, you know, you could argue this is the
best team they've had. You look at a lot of metrics,
expected wins, EPA, for play, it's probably Builds are probably
the better team. I think, you know, like yards game
and and stuff like that. I think I think the

(56:14):
Builds is the better team on paper. But you know,
we're in the postseason, and you know, some of the
things that Chiefs do just don't really come to fruition
until the postseason. They were okay, by one hundred and
twenty yards last week, still won by you know, by margin.
They don't turn the ball over. They have Andy Reid
and Patrick Mahomes game planning. Mahomes is twenty seven and

(56:37):
one ats as a dog or a favorite of lesson
a field goal for his career. He's seven and zero
in that situation in the postseason. He covered three times
last year as a dog or you know, less and
a field goal favorite. I don't know, man, I mean,
it's just like we always come to these situations every
year and everyone wants to bet against the Chiefs and

(57:00):
you just go home empty headed. So yeah, this look
like I said, I think this is the most complete
Bills team we've seen. I think they have a very
good shot of winning. I'm still I would still take
the Chiefs here. Just take the play the one and half.

Speaker 3 (57:14):
Jeff, how about when it comes to the total open
up at forty nine, We're down to forty eight now
at some at some books, when these two teams meet up,
When with these two quarterbacks Mahomes and Allen, the over
is six and two including three and ohero in the
playoffs here. You know, we talked to our beat writers
the last last hour and it just it just sounds
like we're in for another shootout between these two teams.

Speaker 7 (57:38):
Yeah, I mean, it's my first glance, I kind of
I was like, eh, you know, like defenses are pretty good,
I mean and stuff. But then you know, you look
at projections, you look at trends. Yeah, I we lean
over as well. Think you mentioned the number just come
down to forty eight. I think, you know, in our
projections just on Fantasy Life, just again, like we actually

(58:00):
have this project at forty nine, so there's actually more
of an edge showing now. But even just like you know,
throw the projection out for a sec, I don't. I again,
like I think that both teams are going to do
going to have to do a little bit more in
this game, and I think it's going to lead to
a little bit more aggressiveness. And I think he have
the quarterbacks that can make the plays, you know when
they're sort of letting loose a little bit. So yeah,

(58:22):
I agree, Like I do think that we're going to
see more points in this game. I think that a
team that wins may may get to thirty. And you know,
I like this number that it's coming down, you know,
regardless of where the money's going or who's betting it.
I didn't even look at the splits for the total,
to be honest, So I don't really care. I just
think that this is a good spot for the offenses.

(58:42):
The weather shouldn't be a factor. I don't think I agree,
like I think that at forty eight, I'm pretty interested
in the over.

Speaker 2 (58:49):
Well, look, I'll give you a trend that I absolutely love.
The Bills are an NFL best fifteen and four to
the over on their team total this year that includes
too and Oho. This postseason, Buffalo has scored thirty points
against the Chiefs that happened in November. Have scored at
least twenty four in six of their last seven meetings
and eight of their last nine playoff games. Obviously that

(59:12):
spans multiple years. The total this week is twenty three
and a half. It's hard to not think Buffalo, win
or lose, is going to score twenty four points.

Speaker 7 (59:21):
Jeff, Yeah, no, I don't disagree. That does seem like,
you know, just on the on the face of it,
like given the Bills offense and how Efficians it's been,
how of Fician it's been, it seems pretty low, you know,
just to play Devil's advocate. The Chiefs defense last week,
with the pressure they were bringing, would scare me a

(59:42):
little bit. But again It's not CJ. Strouton the Texsans,
it's you know, the Bills who run the ball. They
have Josh Allen. It's just a more dynamic offense. Quite frankly,
so I agree. I don't hate that number. It just
feels a little too low for sure.

Speaker 3 (59:58):
I think as we start to look at the props,
I think, guys, we got to start with Travis kelce right.
Sixty seven and a half receiving yards is his receiving
yardage prop this weekend. He's over that Jeff in fourteen
straight playoff games. Now, obviously he's not the Travis Kelcey
of old, but they've bubble wrapped him pretty well this
regular season, and he goes off for over one hundred
yards last week against Houston. So the legs a little slower,

(01:00:20):
little heavier, but he can still pick up yards after
the catch like he always has been able to. And
he has just tortured Buffalo in the playoffs throughout his career,
going over this well over this in all three meetings
in the postseason. Regular season, though, Buffalo did a pretty
good job on him, just two catches for eight yards
in that one. So what do you expect out of
Kelsey here on Sunday.

Speaker 7 (01:00:41):
I mean, Kelsey's number has come up so much. I'm
on my seeing at like sixty nine and a half
peep think it's going to close probably at like seventy two,
just in that range because of you know, we're not
even on Saturday yet, running the day before the game,
so this one's been steaming up my feeling. It's probably
at a point where you just either lay off or

(01:01:02):
you wait and maybe even take an under. You have
to remember about the Chiefs. It's not that Travis Kelse
can have a good game and go under this number.
He could go for like seven catches and sixty four
yards in a touchdown or two touchdowns and go under
this number. It's a big number. And you have to
remember with the Chiefs, we didn't see it last week,
but they got a lot of guys in their receiver room.
Man Like they have Marky's Brown, they have DeAndre Hopkins.

(01:01:25):
Could easily see some of those guys getting play. I
think you will see some of those guys be a factor.
It was just that Travis Kelce was just dominating them
to such an extent that the Texans is such an
extent that they just didn't need those guys, but certainly
the Bills know what's coming, like you mentioned. So my
feeling on Kelsey's number right now is I would lay off,

(01:01:45):
like I said, see where this line closes, and maybe
even actually end up stating it. There's no problem with
going back though to and anytime touchdown is there. I mean,
he's plus one twenty five. You mentioned the playoff record.
I think that it sounds crazy, but I got probably
where the value is right now with Travis Kelce if
anything is to look to the anytime touchdown market. So yeah,

(01:02:07):
I think that yard is total a little bit too
juicy for me at this point. I won't be shocked
that goes over, but I think that i'd probably rather
take a different route if I was trying to kind
of build around Travis Kelce and you know, staybullish and
taken over or something like that. But to me, that
YARDI ist sol a little getting a little too frothy.

Speaker 2 (01:02:26):
The guys that I really like in this game. Actually, Jeff,
you know, I'm with you. Like the Kelsey lines just
ballooned a little too much for me. Not that I
think he can't get there, it's just again, I don't
want to invest in him going over effectively seventy. But
Xavier Worthy at fifty plus, you know he's forty nine
and a half basically everywhere. And on the other side,
Khalil Shakir, We've spent a lot of time on him

(01:02:47):
in this show, fifty five and a half. These are
two guys that I do expect to hit their over
its at a modest total. We have seen Shakir go
for sixty seven and sixty one in his two playoff
games against the Chiefs earlier this season went for seventy,
so that's three for three in terms of clearing that number.
And Worthy, well, I know he doesn't always get there.

(01:03:08):
For instance, he went five for six for forty five
yards in that win over the Texans. He's just such
a threat. I mean, he's always around it, even the
games where he misses. You look at his recent game
log pre playoffs, seventy nine, sixty five, forty six, forty one,
fifty four, forty six, sixty one, Like he's always in

(01:03:28):
the vicinity because he's such a threat. Now, maybe, and
I've seen people do this, maybe if you don't want
to play his overall yards, you play the longest reception
at eighteen and a half or wherever it's sitting at
right now, I can check. But how would you go
after these two number one wide receivers.

Speaker 7 (01:03:47):
I mean, I think about it as going to target
one of their totals, and actually, I mean I may
end up betting on Shakers over, but he would be
the guy would prefer his yard is sold a little
bit bigger. But it's for a good reason, you know,
usage wise, he was the only build receiver to catch
to get more than two targets last week. He's a
very good slot receiver. You can throw on the Chiefs

(01:04:09):
a little bit. And I think Shakira is the kind
of receiver that you do attack them with, like sort
of down the middle, a little bit from the slot.
Quick throws, gets open, good separation, good after the catch.
I agree, I think that's a little too low. I
would feel much better about his over necessarily than Worthies.
It's not that I you know, Worthy has had actually
really good usage down the stretch, but it's still a

(01:04:31):
little spotty. And you know, like again like Marky's Brown,
DeAndre Hopkins, these are pretty established wide receivers he's working
in with, so you know, the Chiefs don't necessarily use
Worthy as like a He's not necessarily that big play guy.
He can, he's capable of it, but he does get
used around a lone of scrimmage too. So he's another
guy where you have a decent game, you go for
like forty yards in a touchdown, but you know, may

(01:04:53):
not hit the over. So I'd feel better about Shakir.
I think he will see good usage.

Speaker 5 (01:04:57):
Again.

Speaker 7 (01:04:58):
I don't really see any reason why he even if,
like say, Dalton kin Cade comes to life, which I
think is a good chance. Chicao could still go over
because he's just a really good receiver. So feel good
about both those guys. I agree. I do like Xavier
worthies anytime touchdown price as well or plus two hundred
or better, but I feel a little bit better if

(01:05:18):
you go in the yardage. I like the overrun on Shagear.

Speaker 3 (01:05:21):
So, Jeff, I saw earlier this week, like right when
the lines came out, you found something absolutely fascinating about
Kareem Hunt. Could you just let our listeners know what
it is?

Speaker 5 (01:05:29):
Right? Yeah?

Speaker 7 (01:05:31):
No, absolutely so I caream Hunt. It's funny, you know.
I took his over carries last week eight and a half,
and I thought it was going to hit and then
Patrick Mahons kneeled on the last play instead of handed
off to Hunt. But I'll just say like it was
a good bat because I was on the right side.
But you know, Kareem Hunt has taken one hundred percent

(01:05:52):
of the inside five carries and the majority of the
short down and distance attempts over the last three games
for the Chiefs. He's out carried Isaiah Pacheco in four
straight games. He's averaged ten point two five carries over
his last four games. He is basically they're back right now.
It's just it's it's weird. I don't think people really

(01:06:13):
realize it because Pachaco starts the game and then Hunt
comes in. But he's he's essentially like the inside the
five guy.

Speaker 5 (01:06:22):
He is.

Speaker 7 (01:06:22):
He's dominating those red zone, those inside the ten inside
the five carries, and he's effective. So I don't see
any reason for that to change. And Isaiah Pachaco still
has a shorter odds than a lot of sports books
for an anytime touchdown than Kareem Hunt. So some I noticed,
you know, like on DK, I think he's hunts plus
one ninety. I think Pachaco's like plus one seventy five.

(01:06:43):
So yeah, I really like the anytime touchdown prices on
Kareem Hunt.

Speaker 2 (01:06:47):
Yeah, Pachecko's also sucked this year, like it's I mean,
there's a re hurt. He's health, he's back. He's healthy now,
like there was an injury. Sure, but he's been back
since the end of November. And his averages now, the
carries are low because he blows, but the average per
carry three point six three two point nine, two point five,

(01:07:09):
three point nine, an outlier of six point three because
of a thirty four yard run. Generally, his longest runs
are eight nine ten yards. Kareem Hunt is just even
at his advanced running back age of twenty nine, is
a more explosive player. He's not Saquon Barkley or Dereck
Henry or something like that. But compared to Pacheco, like,

(01:07:31):
I don't know, it's like an honorary start that he's
out there, you know, beginning these games. Pacheco, there's a
reason that he's out out snapping him and out carrying him.
He's the one who can actually move the chains.

Speaker 7 (01:07:43):
And the honorary start thing is really weird because Andy
Reid used to do it with Clyde Edwards Hilaire too,
rightn't know if you remember this. Yeah, he'd always bring
in cach for two or three carries, and everyone's like,
why isn't Pacheco starting the game right? And now it's
Pacheco in the r So yeah, just something interesting, Like
I'm going really happy on Kareamont. Props. He's my favorite

(01:08:06):
target from this game, quite frankly, taking overcarries anytime touchdown.
I don't know, well, I'm probably add something elson.

Speaker 4 (01:08:13):
I like his rush receiving too.

Speaker 7 (01:08:16):
Yeah, you know, I might add some yards in there too,
for sure. I think I think you may even see
a bigger split in this game. I think you might
see Kreemont on the field even more so. Yeah, it's
just an interesting situation, and the sports books really haven't
adjusted for it completely, so very very strange. I just
find the prices on Pacheko this week compared to Hunt.

Speaker 2 (01:08:38):
Forty five and a half is his combined rushing receiving
number on FanDuel. He has cleared that number in three
of his last four games. Just something for people to
be aware of, all right, most we're gonna step aside
when we come on back, we'll look at the NFC
Eagles commanders.

Speaker 1 (01:08:52):
Not every bet can be a winner. You gotta have
two things to win. You gotta have brains and you
gotta have bulls. You've got too much of winter and
not enough for the other. But as long as you
come out ahead, green is green. Profit with us.

Speaker 2 (01:09:06):
Cash it cash the plus eleven sixty.

Speaker 1 (01:09:10):
The Gambler with Adam Kauffman. Find us online at w
RKO dot com slash bet.

Speaker 4 (01:09:22):
I know we're talking football.

Speaker 2 (01:09:23):
I was just watching a replay of Nikola jokicch what.

Speaker 3 (01:09:26):
Can't he do?

Speaker 2 (01:09:27):
Did you see this this play at the very end
of the third quarter where he from that they inbounded
the past. He's five feet in from you know that
end of the floor. He's like all the way back
at I mean maybe a little bit more. He's like
at the elbow of the frethrow line basically, and one
hand like baseball, throws the basketball right into the bucket

(01:09:50):
for a buzzer beater.

Speaker 3 (01:09:51):
Insane.

Speaker 2 (01:09:51):
He is stupid his line tonight in a surprisingly narrow
win over the Kings because they were blowing doors one
thirty two, one twenty three. Jokic I mean you're a
hoops guy. At least you used to be Moose. Jokic
went thirty seven minutes, thirty five points, twenty two rebounds,
seventeen assists. Like dude, it is a cartoon character. It's unreal.

Speaker 7 (01:10:17):
How many how many Fantasy points is that guy averaging?
Like Jesus per minute?

Speaker 2 (01:10:22):
Like right, I'm saying it's crazy. All right, let's get
into Eagles Commanders. Now we're looking at a game here
that has a six six and a half point spread Eagles,
the home team obviously favored the total forty seven and
a half across the board. It's come down a point
from the forty eight and a half point open. I

(01:10:42):
spent all last week telling people how the Lions were
going to beat the Commanders. Dan here has absorbed my
role and this week is not taking Washington. Seriously, it
is Philly with the number. He is firmly supporting the
Eagles this week. How do you feel about this game?

Speaker 7 (01:11:04):
So I was actually the guy who told people that
the Commanders could win last week. I didn't say like
vet them out right or anything, but you know, obviously
I took them on spread. You know, said you should
take Washington Seriously, I don't really have a reason to
change my thought process here. This is a Commander's team

(01:11:24):
that does some really good things, man. And yes, they're
going up against the Philly defense that is Russ and Doumble,
and you know they're going to be in Philly. But
you know, like as we've seen through these playoffs, you
can move the ball versus Eagle, you can. You can
run on them a little bit. You get the mobile quarterback,
you neutralize the pass rush a bit. You can pass

(01:11:45):
on them too. Jane Daniels is an insanely accurate mobile
quarterback and he's going to give every defense in the
league problems. And I just feel like we could people
quite haven't realized that that it does. It may not
matter with this guy, just like it may not matter
with with like a guy like Mahomes. So I still
win Commanders here. I do think this is a toper

(01:12:07):
matchup for the Commanders. Obviously, you know that the Detroit
Lions defense was was not up to the task, but
that was only part of part and parcel, right. I mean,
you know the other thing here is the Eagles may
actually have to throw the ball a little bit. The
Commander's defense certainly did a pretty good job versus Jared
Goff last week. So we're gonna see maybe the Eagles

(01:12:27):
just run all over the yard again and it's just
a Saquon Barkley show. But I'm not getting off my
commander's stance. I'm not getting off my Jade and Daniels stance.
I'll go down with the ship here. I'll take the
six points. I think we get another close game. I
think the Commanders at least make a game of this
and push the Eagles and at least forced Jalen Hurts
and and A. B. A. J. Brown and maybe Devata

(01:12:48):
Smith to get off their butts and have to move
the ball a little bit towards the end of the game.
So maybe even have to win the game, you know,
with it with the last drive. So give me six points,
you know, and the Commanders again, and Jay Dadels again.

Speaker 3 (01:13:02):
Yeah, Jeff, I'm firmly on Philly for a few reasons. One,
you were kind of hinting at it there. I think
Saquan's gonna be able to do whatever he wants in
this game again, has as he has been for the
past couple of months. Now. Washington's run defense it is
terrible this season. They ranked twenty seventh in the regular season.
Bucky Irving had a good game a couple of weeks ago.
Jamiir Gibbs went for over one hundred yards no problem,

(01:13:24):
and could have kept going if Detroit had the game
script to do so. But I think Philly's gonna be
able to sit on the ball here in this one
and just absolutely dominate time of possession. And then on
the other side too. I'm you know, leaning on history
might be a foolish thing to do in betting, but
I think it's going to come into play here. Rookie
quarterbacks do not go to the Super Bowl. It just

(01:13:44):
doesn't happen. It's never happened. I don't think it's happening
this week. So those are the two reasons why I
really like the Eagles here, and I do think they're
the better team too. Okay, all right, anything that happened right, well, yeah,
let's let's let's talk about Saquon. Then this numbers up
to one hundred and twenty eight and a half rushing

(01:14:05):
yards for Saquon Barclay Barkley.

Speaker 5 (01:14:07):
That's right.

Speaker 2 (01:14:08):
It's like what you were saying last night, Like if
if I understand if people don't want to go over
on that massive number, but how dare you bet the under?

Speaker 5 (01:14:17):
Right?

Speaker 7 (01:14:18):
Yeah, I'll be betting the under on sake, Okay, no
I will. I mean it's it's it's one hundred and
thirty one at certain places. I think my what I'm
hoping for is that his prop gets to twenty five
and a half carries, and I'll probably take the under
on the carries. That's an insane amount. It's just an

(01:14:40):
insane number. I get that, you know, he is the
focal point. It's the conference championships. But again, like we
have seen teams run on the Eagles a little bit,
you know, like the Packers had chances.

Speaker 5 (01:14:54):
You know, I don't know.

Speaker 7 (01:14:55):
I feel like the Commanders may actually be able to
just give the eag a little bit of their own
medicine here, run the ball a little bit and just
limit Saque a little bit. They're not going to stop
him completely, but if they can limit the carries, limit
the usage, I think that may be enough so to
at least make this, like I said, to cover the spread.
But yeah, I actually do like the ender on sa

(01:15:16):
one here, I'm not gonna lie. I'll probably lean for
the the ender on carries than yards. But I'm going
to definitely take a piece of that. But I am
waiting till the absolute last second because this number is
going nowhere but up.

Speaker 2 (01:15:29):
I don't want anything to do with aj Brown. Sure
he could have a good game, but still sixty one
and a half. He's been on a milk carton for
the last two weeks. It has been on the back
of a book. Yeah, it's been awful to watch. But
Dallas Goddard sitting at basically forty plus, that feels like
a good number for him, and I suspect he's going
to be involved.

Speaker 3 (01:15:48):
Didn't practice today though, true, that is a concern.

Speaker 7 (01:15:52):
Yeah, great, great spot for Dallas Goddard. I hope he
does practice. I agree. I think he's a good anytime
touchdown prop here too, commanders of a trouble middle of
the field gave up gave up one to Laporta last week.
Gave up eight during the regular season to opposing tight ends.
Godard's usage has been it's funny like you look at it.
No one's really talked about it.

Speaker 5 (01:16:13):
His uses has.

Speaker 7 (01:16:14):
Been really good. He's twenty percent target share or more
in three straight games. I think at a thirty two
percent target share last week, and he's looked good. He's
good after the catch tight end. He's a little bit
underrated in that part because you know he plays in
this offense. He's like the fifth wheel sort of so
to speak. But I agree, I like Dallas Goddard.

Speaker 5 (01:16:33):
Two.

Speaker 7 (01:16:35):
I've already bet AJ Brown's over like a complete idiot.
But these numbers are just too low, Like you're getting
plus money on over four and a half perceptions for
AJ Brown. It's just insane. This really all comes down to,
like do you think the Commanders can make a game
of it? If you don't, probably just take Sequon's over
and like that should be your prop and then anytime

(01:16:56):
touchdown for Saquon and if you do, you know you
should probably may maybe spring Glenn a little over, like
maybe you take a Goddard or an AJ Brown. But
it's more of just a projection thing for me, where
I just see these numbers and they're just I know
where these guys baselines are at and what AJ Brown
can do, and it's just too tempting for me to
pass up. So also exposure there, like I said, we'll

(01:17:17):
probably fade Saquon's number at some point. But yeah, it's
a little bit. I'm I'm definitely coming into this game.
It's a little bit of a contrarian view, but happy
to go down with the ship came down. It would
be good to me all year. So if I give
a little back here, I'm not going to cry too much.

Speaker 3 (01:17:34):
How about on the other side, we haven't talked really
too much about any commander's player props yet. Austin Eckler
has been someone though, that we've been talking about all
week on this show. Jeff twenty four and a half
receiving yards is combo numbers at forty four and a half,
we know Eckler's going to get right around ten touches.
He had a monster receiving game against the Eagles earlier
this year with nine catches in eighty nine yards. Do

(01:17:54):
you like any of his plays props this weekend?

Speaker 5 (01:17:58):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (01:17:58):
No, absolutely, I mean, you know, again, like I like,
I like Austin Ecklers. You know, his prop numbers have
gotten up, you know, it's like twenty four and a
half now, But he's obviously a guy who doesn't He's
not a guy who just goes for like you know,
six yards per catch. He breaks like twenty yard catches
on the rag, So it's hard to sort of say, oh, like,

(01:18:19):
you know, fade Austin Neckler. I'm just not sure how
much of an edge there is anymore by taking his overs.
Maybe i'd lean towards the receptions in this part and
just take a like a minus one seventy if you
can find it on the on the over two and
a half receptions. But you know, it's funny because you
bring up the backs. I would rather actually again take
a little bit of a contrarian view here and go
over on Brian Robinson carries nine point five carries. Brian

(01:18:44):
Robinson has had went over nine point five carries and
everything in thirteen of sixteen games this year. Like, and
he's at nine and a half carries. It's it's kind
of an insanely low number for a guy who's the
lead back. Had fifteen carries last week. He had ten
carries in the second meeting against Philly. He had sixteen
carries in the first meeting against Philly, and he's at

(01:19:06):
nine and a half. It just seems very strange to me.
So again, like the lines here are all skewed towards
the Commanders aren't gonna be able to run, They're going
to be way well behind, and they're gonna be throwing.
I'm just not sure if that's necessarily one hundred percent
the case. I think it's a very good over there.
I think there's some a little bit of edge there
to be had with that over on Brian Robinson and

(01:19:27):
probably on some of his Yardist props too.

Speaker 5 (01:19:28):
To be honest, let.

Speaker 2 (01:19:29):
Me throw out a trend to you guys that I
read earlier that I don't know. I'm still thinking I'm
potentially tipping my hand when it comes to the people's parlay.
I just want to know what you guys think of this.
This trend in general Commander's games, I'm gonna give people
kind of a pretzel headache. So you got to pay
attention here. Commander's games are ten and two to the

(01:19:50):
fourth quarter over in the last twelve games. These teams
in their two meetings this year combined for twenty eight
fourth quarter points Week eleven and twenty eight fourth quarter
points in Week sixteen Commander's road games, it's on average
of eighteen total fourth quarter points. This week. We need

(01:20:14):
two touchdowns. The number is thirteen and a half. What
do you think that in the fourth quarter, Jeff.

Speaker 7 (01:20:21):
Sure, Jane Daniels, the guy's magic, right, you know. I
mean a lot of that is probably just circumstantial. The
Commanders have found themselves in these crazy games and they've
come through. But you know, I think there's something to
it having an elite quarterback in the fourth quarter, you know,
and you know, the Commander's defense been a little bit
up and down. I think they're the kind of team

(01:20:42):
that is just going to be in those situations and
can come through and as confident as a good OC.
And you know, the Eagles, for their part, they've got
a game breaker in sae Quon Berkley, right like they
you know, if they're salting a game away, all of
a sudden, it can go from you know, a six
point lead to like a twenty point lead really quickly
a couple of sake one runs. So I think it
kind of makes sense both teams trending towards that. I

(01:21:04):
think the Commanders especially, it does seem like a pretty
good number. Thirteen and a half. I don't bet quarters potentially,
but that's that's an interesting one. I'll definitely look into
that a little bit more.

Speaker 2 (01:21:15):
All right, we are hanging out with Jeff Alrick from
Fantasy Life and talking through conference Championship Sunday, a People's
Parlay when we come.

Speaker 1 (01:21:23):
Back, Locks, Leans, and everything in between.

Speaker 4 (01:21:30):
It says here we should work in teams.

Speaker 5 (01:21:32):
It wants to be my spawner. I don't think you
should be doing too much gambling tonight. Alan gambling does
anything about gambling. It's not gambling when you know you're
gonna win. Yes.

Speaker 1 (01:21:43):
Now back to Boston's only nightly betting show, The Gambler
with Adam Kaufman. Listen on the iHeartRadio app or your
smart speaker.

Speaker 2 (01:22:00):
Back here with Moose Jeff Allrick from Fantasy Life taking
a look at both Chiefs Bills and Commanders Eagles. So Moose,
we're gonna give out of People's Parlay here momentarily. But
any favorite plays, props, trends, whatever it may be, among

(01:22:20):
the deep dives that you've put into these contests that
we haven't touched on, that you're interested in betting this weekend.

Speaker 7 (01:22:29):
That's a good question. I feel like we talked about
a lot of them. I do, like you know, I
think if you're you're looking at that Chiefs game, and
you know, like the again, the receivers are kind of
all over the place, but I would not be against
like taking a piece of Dalta and Kincaid and potentially
laddering them up like four or five receptions fifty plus yards,
maybe a touchdown. It's just a very good matchup. It's

(01:22:50):
one guy we caught it didn't get to talk about,
I guess, but Chiefs allow the second most receptions for
games who posing tight ends. Kincaid went for five plus
catches both against him last year, so that's kind of
one that slipped through the cracks. I do like the spot,
even though usage the last couple of games has been
kind of crappy.

Speaker 2 (01:23:08):
All right, let's get to the people's parlay in the
interest of time here, so Moose, we've mentioned it. We've
hit a couple of parlays with them literally two and ten.
But listen, that's not always on you six five and
one individually on your official show plays. So start us
off here, my friend, let's make Sunday great again. What's

(01:23:30):
your favorite play.

Speaker 7 (01:23:33):
It's got to be Creemont. I'm going back to the well.
Like I said, I played this prop last week. It's
the exact same total. I think the price is even better.
It is actually better. At one sports book came on
over eight and a half carries minus one or two
of fan duel. It is the best price i've seen.

Speaker 3 (01:23:48):
Very nice, Dan, all right, I've been talking about it
all week. I mean, I can't back off and now
the way I've been pumping it up. So I'm taking
the Eagles minus six. I think Philly covers. I think
they win this game by double digits. I think the
bubble bursts this weekend, and as awesome as Jaden Daniels is,
I just don't think they're going to be able to
stop this Philly rushing attack and the Eagles are going
to be able to hold the ball.

Speaker 2 (01:24:09):
I'm going to bring us home and what I think
is going to be a pretty massive parlay between the
three of us here. With that trend that I was
talking about just before the break, I was considering a
few things. The over unworthy, the over on Shakir. I've
got them both watered down as part of my bankroll repair.
So that's fine. I don't need to double dip there,
even though we'd be asking for different numbers. I'm going

(01:24:30):
to give you the trend, which is the over thirteen
and a half points in the fourth quarter between the
Commanders and Eagles. If you missed any of the explanation
as to why that's a good bet and feels like
the right side, check out the podcast gave it to
y'all in the last segment, The Gambler with Adam Kaufman
wherever you get your podcasts. So Danier's sitting shopping everything around.

Speaker 4 (01:24:51):
Here's what we have.

Speaker 2 (01:24:53):
DraftKings plus five point thirty, but the Eagles are at
minus six, or FanDuel plus six twenty five, but the
Eagles are minus six and a half. Whenever someone has
the discrepancy, we asked the person, Dan, this is your play.
You want the big number six twenty five, six and

(01:25:14):
a half or do you want the lowest number available?

Speaker 4 (01:25:17):
Six five thirty.

Speaker 7 (01:25:18):
I think we make him take the big number because
of how much he's been pumping the Eagles. That's just
my opinion.

Speaker 3 (01:25:23):
But no, go ahead, Dan, That's that's what I was
gonna say, Jeff, I was gonna say, let's go for it.
I'm feeling pretty good. We don't need no push protection.

Speaker 4 (01:25:31):
He's feeling frisky. Yeah, I'm into it. Good. All right,
let's do it.

Speaker 2 (01:25:35):
So plus six twenty five and you know what, I
will add this if you I'll probably play it right
now just to lock it in so I don't forget.
But if you want to wait, I'm almost certain FanDuel
will offer a no sweat bet that you could use
this aud now.

Speaker 3 (01:25:52):
I think they have two separate SGP.

Speaker 2 (01:25:55):
There is, I've seen at least one.

Speaker 3 (01:25:57):
There's an SGPA boot per center for both for each
game individual.

Speaker 2 (01:26:01):
Oh really, yeah, I didn't get that. I got a
fifty percent boost for the weekend, for the day, huh,
but I didn't get separate ones.

Speaker 4 (01:26:09):
That's interesting.

Speaker 2 (01:26:11):
But that's available to the people, so you can boost
it if you want to as well. Six twenty five
boosted by fifty percent gets your real nice number, takes
you up to almost ten to one.

Speaker 4 (01:26:20):
Not bad, all.

Speaker 2 (01:26:22):
Right, Moose, Always a pleasure. Great to have you back.
We'll do it again. Not uh, I don't know if
maybe some super Bowl talk. Definitely some hockey, some golf.
I mean, your your season's here, my friend.

Speaker 7 (01:26:36):
Absolutely big, big golf stuff coming up. Lots of hockey
to talk about.

Speaker 5 (01:26:41):
Suck.

Speaker 7 (01:26:41):
It's a good, good time.

Speaker 5 (01:26:42):
To be better.

Speaker 2 (01:26:43):
There you go when isn't other than July, middle of July.
I can't know, ye all right, Jeff.

Speaker 7 (01:26:51):
Gets a little low in July.

Speaker 2 (01:26:52):
Yeah, Jeff Ullwerg from Fantasy Life. Check them out over
there with our buddy Matt Lamark as well putting articles, videos,
all that good stuff together and on Twitter at the
Fantasy Grind. We will step aside. Come on back and
check out on show plays?

Speaker 1 (01:27:08):
Did someone jerk the People's parlay?

Speaker 2 (01:27:11):
If someone has to be the jerk, I hope it's
you or the guests.

Speaker 4 (01:27:14):
I don't want to be the jerk. I don't want anyone.
I pray it's you.

Speaker 3 (01:27:17):
I would like us all to hit all of our
plays every single night.

Speaker 4 (01:27:20):
But if someone's got to be the jerk, I don't
want to be the jerk. I don't want to be
the one that ruins it.

Speaker 3 (01:27:24):
No one likes being that guy.

Speaker 1 (01:27:26):
Go with your gut and lock into Boston's only nightly
sports gambling show.

Speaker 3 (01:27:31):
Message to our listeners the second Adam asks a guest
about their opinion on his leg of the parlay.

Speaker 1 (01:27:37):
Take the Opposite Big Gambler with Adam Kaufman returns now
on WRKO and the iHeartRadio app.

Speaker 2 (01:27:50):
Great stump out of all of our guests. We thank
them for their time. As usual, we had Joe Deleira
back in the opening hour. We are sweating out our
people's parlay that we gave you way back when Joe's
already in.

Speaker 4 (01:28:04):
There's no sweat for Joe.

Speaker 3 (01:28:05):
That was insane.

Speaker 2 (01:28:07):
Seven first half rebounds for Lebron. James got that Home
needs Zubots, that game's will blowout. Though I really I
couldn't bring myself to do it, but I strongly consider
just taking the Clippers with the number. That one is
an ugly game at the break, I think we're sitting
at eight points for Zubots. We need to get him
to fifteen in a close game. I'd be confident we'll see.

(01:28:29):
And then Holiday, where's he at right now in his
points rebounds still six?

Speaker 3 (01:28:32):
He's having a horrible shooting night.

Speaker 2 (01:28:34):
Yeah, when I see people tweeting about CTE Drew, it's
not a good night for Holiday. When that's happening. Then
of course our deep dive into the Bills and Chiefs.
We had of course Sal Capaccio from Buffalo, Dusty Lichens
out in Kansas City, and most recently Jeff Ulrick doing
the full breakdown of both games, best bets, trends, talking

(01:28:57):
through strategies.

Speaker 4 (01:28:58):
We didn't get a chance.

Speaker 2 (01:28:58):
We ran out of time to ask about the play
that we talked about way back at the beginning of
the show, of course, that you brought up with just
banking on the close game between the Bills and the Chiefs,
taking both sides plus three forty on DraftKings to win
by one to six points, and guaranteeing yourself on a
half unit play on each side full unit investment one

(01:29:19):
point two units of profit if in fact, again the
game is decided within a touchdown. If it's not, you lose.
But I think a lot of people believe this is
a coin flip game.

Speaker 3 (01:29:28):
Yeah, I feel much more confident in this being a
you know, one to six point game than I do
picking the side sure in this one, because I do
think it's a true coin flip and I think it's
going to come down to the end, And yeah, if
we get to overtime, would have wished we had the
plus fourteen hundred. But still this is a nice way
to have some profit. Green is Green. You know, we
never really do this, but what was your backup play

(01:29:49):
for the parlay.

Speaker 2 (01:29:51):
The I probably would have just gone over on Shatir's
receiving gyards.

Speaker 3 (01:29:57):
I would have gone over on as receptions. So maybe
we should figure out how to work a.

Speaker 2 (01:30:01):
Chita, how to turn that into a show group play. Yeah,
it's one or the other, right, it's a literal coin flip.

Speaker 3 (01:30:08):
Yeah, or it's.

Speaker 2 (01:30:10):
Some sort of an SGP with X number of yards
and x number of receptions at roughly even money.

Speaker 4 (01:30:16):
We could look into that as well.

Speaker 3 (01:30:17):
Yeah, we got a fifty five and a half at
like minus one fourteen for his best yards, but we
got five and a half receptions at plus one sixteen
to the over on FanDuel as well.

Speaker 2 (01:30:27):
Well, you keep an eye on the clock real quick,
so we're not late. And I will just very quickly
because I have FanDuel open.

Speaker 3 (01:30:33):
What's like a five catch fifty yards?

Speaker 2 (01:30:36):
We I'll say, let's see Shakir if we did, like,
where is it forty yards and four catches?

Speaker 4 (01:30:45):
That's not good enough.

Speaker 3 (01:30:47):
Now, it'd have to be five and fifty.

Speaker 2 (01:30:49):
Five and fifty is five and fifties minus one nineteen.

Speaker 3 (01:30:54):
Okay, So something we can think about, Yeah, definitely for
sure throughout the weekend.

Speaker 2 (01:30:58):
Yeah, we can always pull to the Action app obviously
where we post all of our plays. The Gambler with
AK is the handle. Make sure you check it out,
search the podcast and rate review. Subscribe to Gambler with
Adam Kaffman wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks to all
of our guests. Brian Hobnobbin, We'll see you next week
for Dan, I'm Adam.

Speaker 4 (01:31:17):
See ya.

Speaker 1 (01:31:21):
You've been listening to the Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
six point eighty WRKO, Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights now from
nine to midnight. Listen on demand. Download the Gambler with
Adam Kauffman podcast on the iHeartRadio app, WRKO dot com,

(01:31:43):
slash bet, or wherever you get your podcasts. Gambling Problem
Hope is here. Call one eight hundred three two seven
fifty to fifty or visit Gambling Helpline MA dot org.
Goodnight from the Gamblers Studio. H

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