NFL Week 15 Picks for EVERY Game! Army-Navy Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Gambler starts. Now, here's Adam Kaufman.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
What's up, everyone, Walk to Thursday, our favorite day of
the week. Here on the Gambler with Adam Kaufman can
hardly speak. I'm so excited Stan Watkins is in. But
I mean it's our favorite day of the week. Conceptually.
Comb with that content wise, content wise, we love talking

(00:28):
through some NFL, a lot of NFL, a lot of
football in general. Not quite as much, well, I should
say that differently. We'll be doing the time wise, same
amount of college football talk as we typically do on Thursday,
just not nearly the number of games that we typically
would preview throughout the regular season. Bowl games are coming up,

(00:49):
College Football Playoff is coming up. There's not a ton
going on this weekend unless you're really really into FCS.
Action could make an appearance, we'll see, But Army Navy
that's the big one. Obviously, Army Baby coming up on Saturday.
So looking forward to previewing that. We're going to have
a second timer on the show. But first for me,

(01:09):
he was on with you from Road a Wire back
during my vacation week July fourth week, the Million August.
It was augusta August August, all right, back to school week. Course,
we have Chris Benzene coming on with us, so he
will talk through all things college football, give us his thoughts,
much as we did last night with Colby Dant talking

(01:32):
through or two nights ago with Colby Dant talking through
all things college football. Playoff and next hour, Doug Kazarian
will come on with us from Onlyplayers dot Com and
we will attempt This has nothing to do with Doug.
This is the volume of games in front of us.
Bye weeks are done by mcgeddon is over. Everybody. Everybody

(01:55):
is in action this weekend, or at least through Monday.
There are two it's a Monday night football doubleheader this week.
Two Monday night games, and of course we have this
whatever this is between the Rams and the Niners happening
right now. Everybody else plays on Sunday, and we will
go game by game, give you picks, leans predictions, whatever

(02:17):
it may be for all of those with Doug in
the second hour, we will do bank roll repairs for
you as well. At the end of the hour, set
Jeff for the weekend. So a lot going on. A
couple things, just housekeeping notes, right, We like to tell
you how the plays are going. Well, we don't always
like to, but we tell you how the plays are going.
And whereas yesterday was a plus ten unit day for

(02:40):
the show fantastic night, today not so much. Not right now. Anyway,
we worked in a narrative play. It was a good play.
He was sound reasoning behind it, and that was Jalen
Brown to go over on thirty six and a half
pra points rebounds SYS in the Celtics game against the Pistons.

(03:01):
The logic behind that, because we didn't talk about this
on the radio, was exclusive to the action app was
that Jalen routines lely, routinely, almost almost automatically clears that
line whenever Jason Tatum is out of the lineup, and
I believe he would have if not for the fact
that the Celtics absolutely hammered the Pistons. I mean there

(03:23):
was no fight out of Detroit really throughout. I mean
you could really kind of proclaim that game over midway
through the second quarter, but definitely in the second half,
Detroit completely checked out. And so Jalen ends at twenty
nine wasn't even close. Peyton Pritchard, this is the narrative
and I mentioned this in our text threat earlier and

(03:45):
we didn't play it. It's fine, but just something we
should think about. This is the narrative any time that
Jalen or Jason is out. I think Prichard's the guy
because he gets the run in blowouts. He plays. It
doesn't matter the score he plays. He plays even when
it's a close game and it's still a reasonable line.

(04:06):
Like his points line was sixteen and a half. What
do you have almost thirty? Yeah, I mean I think
just a willing shooter man. So I think Pritchard needs
to be kind of that auto play whenever one of
the Jays is ruled out.

Speaker 3 (04:20):
Yeah, good to know. I mean, I'm furious because, like
I was all over Brown tonight, and Detroit just couldn't
handle the Celtic size whatsoever and they only shot nineteen
percent from three, so they were out of this one.
But Jalen Brown had reached at least twenty points in
twenty straight games without Jason Tatum coming into tonight, so
I was all over that. I put it in a

(04:40):
little builder with Derek White, who had gone seven straight
games dating back to the start of last season with
at least five assists, when Jason Tatum missed his action,
and early on it was like, Nope, Brown's going to
be the facilitator and White's going to be the one
to try to shoot all the time. So the first
half really just like sunk anything that you really wanted.
And the real annoying thing about our narrative play Adam

(05:03):
is I think I think Brown was at like fourteen
at the at the end of the first quarter pr
a wise, Yeah, he was at twelve or fourteen at
the end of the first quarter. He had like I
saw that.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
It took him a while to get going scoring wise, Yeah,
but it wasn't shooting. What rebounds and assists were coming
his way.

Speaker 3 (05:18):
They were. Yeah, I think he had like like five
four and four or something like that, which is what
was that thirteen, So yeah, he was he was right there.
It was looking really good and unfortunately, yeah, Detroit doesn't
put up a fight. Brown only plays thirty minutes basically.
I think he came out of the game with like
nine minutes left in the fourth quarter, so and I
thought he was gonna get a little extra run tonight too,
because the Celtics haven't played since Saturday, So.

Speaker 2 (05:40):
We ended up missing that good from Mi zool I
guess keeping his guys, you know, fresh for the next game.
But h and and good. You know, if you had
the Celtics, you know, as as we did. In my
bank roll repair, just to win on the money line
didn't even I mean, it was a very comfortable win,
twenty four point win. Honestly, it didn't even feel like
it was that close. My bank roll repair plus one

(06:01):
sixteen will be in if in this fourth quarter, because
we're six to three Niners lead at the end of three,
but the Rams are in the red zone and threatening
to take a lead. Hopefully here we have the Rams
as an official play at plus three, which I realized.
You know, we technically are in in of right now.

(06:21):
But you know we don't want to push. We don't
want to lose. We want we want to I want
the Rams to go out and win this game. Yeah,
so rooting on LA. Hopefully a touchdown is on the way.
We will see. But in this moment, my bank roll
repair will clear if we get nine receiving yards out
of Juwan Jennings. He has two catches on seven targets

(06:44):
for thirty one yards. Now, some of those throws kind
of ugly from Roy. I don't know, Yeah, I don't
completely fall I mean the first half they were just
playing in the rain the entire time. It was it
was ugly. I was surprised they were even passing as
much as they were quite quite frankly. But uh, weather's
great now, So hopefully here in this second half we'll

(07:05):
start to see more success throwing the football already. I mean,
Matt Stafford, what do you have eleven passing yards at
the break something like that. Yeah, he went to a
fifty plus in the third quarter, so at least they're
they're finding a little bit of a groove now. I
personally really need Stafford for the sake of some builders
to get up to one fifty, which is not out
of the realm of possibility. But don't love him being

(07:26):
at sixty seven at the end of three. Meanwhile, Purdy,
who we are chasing for an official show play at
two forty five and a half plus he is at
one seventeen, so again, really need him to pick it up.
You need to double that. Maybe we should just be
sitting here rooting for overtime. Maybe we should roofer a
field goal roof for overtime.

Speaker 3 (07:43):
I don't know, but uh gotta start airing it out
one way or enough too Indeo Samuel, Oh my god,
dude's gonna complain all week like that he's not getting
the ball enough, and then he drops that pass with
like no one in front of him. He wouldn't have
been touched. He had a thirty yard touchdown, no problem
on that quick on the last drive, drops the ball immediately,
you know, hands up in the air that he knows

(08:04):
how bad he just screwed up. I mean, you can't
be complaining all week that you're not getting the football
and then drop a golden opportunity like that. Just absolutely
disgusting from Deebo. Samuel tonight not great, not playing great.
Debo doesn't look right either. I mean, this is just
a guy I was saying to Brian before the show started,
you know, and I understand why you went with him,
especially sort of with the narrative of him calling for

(08:26):
the ball. And you know, there were a lot of
people in the football betting space that were on Deebo today,
although it seemed like the most popular guy just uniformly
the most popular guy in this game that people were playing,
be at yards or more commonly receptions.

Speaker 2 (08:39):
It was George Kittle. Yeah, people are all over Kittle
in this game. He's not there yet. He's a three
for fifty two.

Speaker 3 (08:44):
But in one of that game yet thirty three yards.

Speaker 2 (08:48):
Right, yeah, that first one. Deebo's just a guy, and
Cooper Cup same thing. Cooper Cup on the other side,
no catches three targets, obviously, no yards. Those are two
guys this season at least. I'm not going to say
they haven't good to me in the past, but this
season Deebo, Samuel Cooper Cup. Anytime I invest in them,
they steal my money. I I just I don't trust
either one. I can't invest in either guy. Obviously I've

(09:11):
played the show parlay, but in general on my own, no,
I'm out. I'm out on these two guys right now.

Speaker 3 (09:19):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, Cooper Cup is just he's falling down.
He's clearly the number two. Now it's he, Pooka and
Akua just gets everything in the way that the Rams
been running this offense in the second half, it's basically
been run Kyen Williams, run, Kyen Williams, throw to Pooka.
That has been every three plays and as you just
see right there as Pooka has another catches, He's up
to like six catches but only like forty yards. So

(09:42):
it's yeah, I don't know, not feeling too good about
like anything. I bet in this game tonight.

Speaker 2 (09:49):
Well for your bank roll repair to cash, we you know,
start Aeron need overtime just yards yards, yards because Williams
in fo you kittles in for you. But we need
passing yards out of both Purdy and Stafford need him
both at two hundred plus. Stafford's at seventy four right
now after that Puka catch to bring him to forty six,

(10:10):
and Perdy as mentioned at one point seventeen.

Speaker 4 (10:12):
So not.

Speaker 2 (10:14):
Exactly where we want to be after a great night
last night. But we'll see. It's not over, Dan, It's
not over. We could in theory have two full quarters
left if this goes all the way to the end
of an ot wouldn't that be nice? It would be
statistically so, like I said, cause Arian to come up
in the second hour talk through some NFL. We will

(10:35):
have benzene on with us to talk through all things
college football coming up in just a little bit. Bank
or repairs at the end of the hour, all that
good stuff. I was looking through too. We don't We
can sort of take our time to siding through this stuff.
Don't need to make any any hasty decisions during the show.

(10:58):
But building off of what Brian gave us last night,
looking at a lot of NFL narratives, I was looking
earlier at a whole lot of trends as well that
are interesting in some games, some obviously more so than others.
But there are a couple that that might be in
contention to be show plays, narrative trends streety for the
football Sunday. But we'll see. We'll talk through all of it,

(11:20):
maybe a little bit later on as we have time.
We'll step aside when we come back. College Football Talk
on the Way with Chris Benzene from Road to Wire.
We are back here on the Gambler with Adam Kaffman WRKO.
If you want, and we certainly encourage it, check out
the podcast just in case you can't listen live. There's

(11:43):
money to be made out there. We're doing our best
to tell you where to invest it. Some days better
than others, as you know evidence by the diconomy between
yesterday and today. But today is not over. The rams
kicked the field goal. It's a brand new game. Dan,
who knows may have extra time on the horizon, would
certainly be good for us as we chase smovers.

Speaker 3 (12:02):
Yeah, we need these teams to start airing out the football.
Stop running yards these.

Speaker 2 (12:06):
Yards yards here please. Yeah, I mean, come on, it's
no more rains, no more weather concerns. Get it done.
We're gonna do a lot a lot of NFL later on.
Dougs Arian from Only Players is going to join us
and we will go through every single game in week fifteen,
give you people's parlay for the weekend as well. Very
much looking forward to that. Also looking forward to our

(12:28):
next guest who joins us now. Chris Benzene comes on
from Road to Wire college football editor there, and he's
been on with us before, not with me, but with
Dan during our back to School week back in August.
As we just you know, deciphered there in that last segment.
Not a ton obviously in front of us. This college

(12:48):
football weekend with Army Navy, which is a monumental event,
and of course there's I think one Bowl and then
a lot of FCS action, but so much in the
world of college football that is on the way clearly
in terms of the college football playoff and everything. So
Chris on with us now. He's on Twitter at Chrispy

(13:09):
two seven to zero zero two. Which of all the
Twitter handles that I have read dan in the history
of this show, that one has to have the most
numbers in.

Speaker 3 (13:19):
It, Mike Crispy something with the rotal wire, guys, and
the numbers.

Speaker 2 (13:24):
Two seven to two zero zero two. Be honest with us, Chris,
this was your old AOL instant messenger screen name.

Speaker 5 (13:32):
It probably was. It was definitely something like that. And uh,
it was also like my first email that I set
up when I was like thirteen years old, so it
just kind of is carried on when I was starting college.
They're just like, hey, we should you should get a
Twitter account, And sure enough I did that and I
chose that handle and I've stuck with it for now.

(13:53):
And yeah, it's definitely a long one compared to many
out there, and definitely tough to just a read on
the radio as well.

Speaker 2 (14:04):
Quite all right, we appreciate you being here. Let's get
into this. The marquee event of this weekend anyway, is
obviously Army Navy, a game that was in our backyard.
In Foxborough last year wound up being a pretty exhilarating
game all things can you know, like all things considered
by the end, I'm in a wild fourth quarter, people

(14:25):
sweating the total as it came down the stretch. This
year we have got a game that probably doesn't project
to be quite as exciting. Army is a six and
a half point favorite total of thirty nine. But what
jumps out to me. I'm looking at the drafting sportsbook splits,
and it is the handle the bets. It is overwhelmingly

(14:46):
in support of Army, like a ninety five to five
split basically, in terms of how this game is being
bet Do you agree with that? Does that surprise you
at all?

Speaker 5 (14:57):
It doesn't surprise me. I'm totally on that. I had
sitting at six and a half and you still can
get it at a touchdown under a touchdown still so
and this as you're saying you wanted some yard yard
yards air of the ball out for NFL, I don't
think you're going to be getting that on Saturday in
this game either. Getting two triple option offense is just

(15:20):
going to grind against each other for sixty minutes of football,
and it's it's been generally a low scoring affair, so
I definitely. But having said that, and it's it's actually
moved down a little bit to six and a half
from what I remembered seeing. I think it opened at
a little higher. I had to look at the number again. Yeah,

(15:43):
so it opened at oh no, sorry, never mind it
opened at It opened at Tickham for some reason I
was I was thinking didn't. And I'm glad it's still
sinking six and a half because I was on Army
all the way till now and I still would take
them for a touchdown, and because Bryson Daily under center
is among the best that I've seen from Army in

(16:07):
a long time. He's twenty nine rushing touchdowns, among the
best in the country. He might even be at the top,
and he's missed a game. It's kind of just kind
of crazy. He missed a week ten against air Force.
So I'd really feel like Army even at six and
a half, I'm still going with Army in this game,
just like as you said, all the money is on
right now.

Speaker 3 (16:26):
Yeah, Chris, We've seen that massive movement in this line
here since the American Championship Game last Friday night, when
Army just took Tulane out to the woodshed and beat
on him for four quarters, beating Tulane thirty five to fourteen,
where less than a month ago Tulane shut out Navy
thirty five nothing. How much do you take from those
results there when you're handicapping this matchup on Saturday.

Speaker 5 (16:49):
I mean, yeah, obviously you're you have some time between
the games. But as you've seen down the stretch, you
did see Navy, you've started off hot. Both of these
teams started off hot. They were defeated for a good
part of the season. It was I was happy about it.
I was. I was happy to see the two the
two academies being part of the mix there and part

(17:10):
of the conversation, but maybe really kind of faded down
the stretch, and you can see they were they were
struggling after that after that Notre Dame game, and Army
put up a little more of a fight in that
game too. Again in their game against Notre Dame and
as you said, another common opponent Tulane, there was clearly
a difference between those two results as well, and and

(17:31):
I think that is probably where a lot of people
are getting their clues from when they're when they're going,
uh common opponent is where they're getting their clues from
when deciding between Army and Navy. And that's why we've
seen such a huge shift in this line from where
it opened at at a pick them to now six
and a half and and I feel I wouldn't be
shocked if by kickoff this game ends up being at

(17:54):
least a touchdown favorite in terms of for Army.

Speaker 2 (17:58):
Chris, why don't we talk about the Salute to Veterans
Bowl that we have coming up on Saturday, South Alabama
and Western Michigan and this one. I think it's a
good microcosm for what the big storyline is throughout Bowl season,
which is who's gonna play, who's staying, who's going to
the transfer portal, who's going declaring for the draft and

(18:19):
therefore sitting out these big games. I mean, the Bowl
games aren't big games. They're big games in sort of
in spirit, but in terms of the reality, most people,
including many of the players themselves, don't care. South Alabama
was a nine and a half point favorite at open,
then got bet up to ten, then down to all
the way down to seven, moved back to about seven

(18:42):
and a half or so in that South Alabama quarterback
Goo Lopez tweets the Wolf of Wall Street clip that
he's not going anywhere, moved the line back to eight.
And you know, so it seems like most people would
like to support the favorite here a little bit narratively
as well with again Lopez stay and put. But you know,
is that the side that you would attack for one?

Speaker 5 (19:05):
Yeah, that's where I'm looking at for that game because
I was looking at I was doing an article about
this earlier, some of the SP plus differentials. I really
like to look some of that from ESPN, and I'm
pretty sure that one was among the biggest like SP
plus rating differentials in the slate of all Bowl games

(19:29):
this season. So sitting at where they are, just like
you said, it's been about eight and a half at
the moment, and I would say even at that amount
of that dollar amount or not dollar amount, if that
spread currently, I feel like I'm still going on the
favorite for that game. I feel like that games could
shoot back up closer to ten before this kicks off,

(19:51):
and maybe maybe not. I'm not sure if it's gonna
how much is going to move in the next two days,
but I definitely I feel like with Geo Lopez have
some really good receivers. They did lose Fluff bothwell, they're
starting running back who's a freshman. He's really good. But
they have some real, some good depth at the running

(20:12):
back position. Kendrell Bullock has been is an experience back.
He's been there for a while. He's really good too,
And I don't have any concerns with losing that. And
as you said, there's going to be people missing on
both sides for this game, so I definitely I would
still stick inside of the favorite, stick on the side
of the favorite for this game. So that's that's where
I'm going with it for the first bowl game of

(20:35):
the season, which happens to be still the same day
as the last game of the regular season too.

Speaker 3 (20:42):
Gotta love that. Before we get to the college football playoff,
Chris got to ask you about the North Carolina tar Heels.
Are North Carolina tar Heels up here in New England. Now,
as we're all just shocked adopted fan, that Bill Belichick
has gone back to school, gone to college, which he's
always wanted to do, saying that his first words or
beat Duke. Now, I bring this up because both FanDuel

(21:04):
and DraftKings have special tabs for wind totals. Belichick to UNC,
North Carolina has got the win total for next year
sitting at over seven and a half at plus one
oh two to the over minus one thirty six to
the under, where DK's got it at the totals at
six and a half minus two hundred to the over
plus one sixty to the under. I mean, what kind
of shape is this roster in right now? I mean,

(21:26):
can you advise anybody to bet on a win total
in college football? But like before we even know what's
going to go on with this transfer portal and all that.

Speaker 5 (21:34):
I mean the transfer portal at this point, I can
tell you from experience we deal with this on a
daily basis. It is just insanity. It is something that
is difficult to follow for even those who are actually
trying to follow it on a daily basis, and it's
it's something that really does need to be taken in Duka.

(21:55):
I feel like rosters are getting turned over to the
max and you really don't get a good feel for
how good a roster is until you've hit I think
this first transfer portal window that ends in December, that
is when you'll have most of the transfers occurring, and
I think you'll have a better idea of the rosters
after this first transfer portal window, and there's like a

(22:17):
lot of the commitments get in from there and then
there's another one in the spring, but they're based on
experience from last year. There wasn't much, so I would
say once you get done with this first transfer portal
window here, that's when you really want to look at
the wind totals and probably give take your chances on
the over under. If you really want to look at
North Carolina for an over for next year, I'd say

(22:39):
maybe take a look at the roster once you get
done with the first transfer portal and then make your assessment.

Speaker 2 (22:46):
I know you're not a big FCS guy, and that's
totally fine, but in the spirit of bulls, I am curious.
We've got what the Celebration Bowl featuring. I think it's
Jackson State and South Carolina State. Do you much time
looking at these games among the handful of contest in
FCS action that we have coming up on Saturday.

Speaker 6 (23:08):
Yeah, I've been preoccupied with a lot of the FBS stuff,
so I haven't looked at it too much. I know
it's Deion's old stomping grounds. I'm not sure how that
Jackson State roster is shaping up still after he's left,
but I'm sure he left that seems to have left
that in the good spot. But yeah, in terms of

(23:29):
like my betting, that's probably not going to be part
of my portfolio this week.

Speaker 5 (23:33):
Unfortunately, more than.

Speaker 2 (23:35):
Enough going on right between these games. Of course, trying
to handicap that college football playoff first year, first year
at twelve, and we're all trying to wrap our heads
around it and expectations and of course find the way
the best path for our future show ticket on Oregon
to win the Natty. So we'll come on back more
with Chris Benzene on the way to talk all things

(23:57):
college football. Playoff on the other side, back here with
Chris Benzene from Road to Wire talking all things college football.
Army Navy the one bowl game that we have this
weekend of note of FBS note there are some FCS
games going on. No college football people's parlay tonight just

(24:18):
not not an overwhelming amount of choices. Although I did
say Dan to Brian during the break, you know, let's
just take you know, Army minus six and a half.
Throw them with that other game. We've talked about South
Alabama minus eight maybe working the over in the UC
Davis South Dakota gave just let's just make that a parlay.
Just just on a whim, go with the people. He's
the popular public place. That works out so well.

Speaker 3 (24:41):
Yeah, if you if you do that a lot, I
got a number for you to call.

Speaker 2 (24:46):
We should be one eight hundred gambler. How many calls
that we win? Gambler, Yeah, exactly, and will make it
make sense. We are going to invest in Army minus
six and a half as a show play, a group play.
So we'll be rooting that one on though this weekend.
But Chris College football Playoff, of course, is rapidly approaching.

(25:08):
We are eight days away from Friday night started the
first round with number ten Indiana against number seven Notre Dame,
and then on Saturday the other three first round games
SMU Penn State, Clemson, Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State before we
get into the quarterfinals. In bowl games, because of course
we'll have the Fiesta Bowl, the Peach Bowl, the Rose Bowl,

(25:28):
the Sugar Bowl, and you know, so on building up
to the Orange Bowl. And of course the big National
championship happening there in Atlanta. So as you start your
process of outlining your predictions handicapping that opening round on
December twentieth and twenty first, what jumps out to.

Speaker 7 (25:46):
You, What jumps out to me is Texas and Clemson
being at it is a double didding spread, and I
feel like it's should be and it should be higher,
maybe even because I feel like Clemson has the weakest,
the weakest.

Speaker 5 (26:05):
Team by most metrics in this playoff, and I feel
like Texas is Texas is a strong candidate to make
it all the way they're speaking of future paths that
they're a team that I feel I could advance far
in here has a good path to it, and from
what I've what we saw down the stretch, yours was
banged up a little bit. He had both of his

(26:27):
ankles taped up with the regular season finale. I'm not
convinced he was one hundred percent last week against Georgia either.
He's got a couple extra weeks to rest up. Texas's
defense is just overwhelming grades out is one of the
best in the country, and I just don't think Clemson
has the horses the needed talent to match up against
them offensively, like Club Nick's been better than I expected

(26:48):
this year, but I just see that game in particular
in Austin. I just don't I know, Dabo has experience here,
So that's something that's that's tough for me to do.
I to go again Stabbo in this situation, but I
just feel like Texas is too good of a team
right now and shouldn't be and should be justifiably a

(27:11):
bigger favorite than they currently are. Christ So if we're
talking first rounds, that's what Yeah, go.

Speaker 3 (27:16):
Ahead, Oh no, no, please finish your thought.

Speaker 5 (27:19):
Oh if that's what you're talking about, I'm just gonna
say that's probably the first one that jumps out to
me of the four first round games.

Speaker 3 (27:29):
So what I want to say is that the team
that's kind of confusing me here is just is Penn
State and just how everybody is pretty much just writing
it in stone that Penn State's going to advance to
the semi final. I mean, I think we've seen it
enough times with James Franklin throughout the years that his
team's just in these big spots, it doesn't tend to
go their way. Now, I know they're going to be

(27:50):
a heavy favorite in both games here, but do you
think there's a chance that they slip up? And if
they do, I mean, I'm looking at Boise State to
reach the semi final at plus three fifty on DraftKings.
That's going to be a better number than you're going
to get on the money line next week if they
play Penn State.

Speaker 5 (28:06):
Yeah. I mean, I we did do a picks article
staff picks article on our website for all the first
round games, and my only away favorite that I or
sorry away underdog that I took against the spread was SMU.
It's because I just as you mentioned, Penn State hasn't
really been on this stage for it, SMU hast neither.

(28:29):
I mean, Penn State hasn't been there for a while,
long enough to where we don't really we can't really
say they haven't been to the stage recently. And from
what I've seen from Sunny Dyke's changing over to Kevin
Jennings under center and that that SMU team there, if
they can keep them under wraps enough in the running,
in the rushing attack, I just don't know that. I mean,

(28:53):
you do have Tyler Warren at tight end, right, but
outside of him. They don't really have a ton of
viable weapons in a wide receiver, so I feel like
there can be with extra time to plan game plan
for it, if you can hold them hold him down
on the rushing side of the ball. I feel like
there's a way you can that sm You could pull

(29:14):
off an upset here if you're looking at if you're
looking for that upset pick in the first round, I
think SMU would be also be my best bet option
to go for.

Speaker 2 (29:26):
One thing Dan mentioned to Colby Dant when he was
on with us a couple of nights ago, was we
have this futures ticket at what plus seven hundred on
Oregon to win the National Championship, And you know, is
there a way to sort of you can't really hedge
it obviously in the twelve team field, but it is
at least not without waiting a while and hoping that

(29:48):
a few things go your way early on. But is
there an alternative to that to maybe add a second
team to help our our odds are a little bit?
I mean Colby's advice was, you know, bet on a
team on the other side of the bracket, for instance,
how would you approach this if you were sitting on
Oregon plus seven hundred at the moment.

Speaker 5 (30:11):
Yeah, I mean, I guess I would take a team
that I find. I guess i'd probably go with a
team that I have on the maybe even the same
side of the bracket that gets me a chance at
the national Championship. I mean, if I already get one
into the championship, I feel like that bottom side of
the bracket is the Georgia seems like the best position

(30:31):
team among those teams at the bottom, even without if
assuming Carson back if he doesn't play, they seem like
that if you're gonna go on the bottom side of
the bracket, you want to try to take a chance
on both sides to have a guaranteed Like if Oregon
and Georgia makes it a guaranteed win, I feel like
that would be where I'd take my chances down there.

(30:52):
But if we're going to the top of the bracket,
I still feel and again I'm being kind of chalky
here because I'm looking at the odds and Texas is
still there. But like first round, as I mentioned, Clemson Texas,
I feel like Texas skating by that reasonably easy, and
then Arizona State down Jordan Tyson. I don't think they're

(31:13):
going to be the same offense without him. He's just
their best receiver by a long shot. And I just
don't think they're gonna Even though they did impress in
the Big twelve championship game against Iowa State, I just
don't think they're gonna have that same success against this
Texas defense. And I can see those two teams making
it through easily, or sorry that him them making it

(31:35):
through those two teams pretty easily. And I do worry
about Oregon in that second game, like they're gonna have
to do that. They're gonna have to play a winner
of Ohio State Tennessee and that's gonna be a grind.
And then the next week they'll get if Tech assuming
Texas makes it there Texas, and that one scares me.
But at least if I have both of those teams

(31:56):
on that side of the bracket there, then I have
a chance to Since you already have Oregon from Away's back,
you at least have one dog in the race in
the championship game. So I guess that would be if
I'm going to do something, maybe I'd take that route
and guarantee myself a team and a rooting interest in
the championship game.

Speaker 3 (32:15):
So the one game we really haven't talked too much
this week. I know we're going to talk a bunch
more about it next week as we get closer here
is that Tennessee Ohio State game at the Horseshoe in Columbus.
Ohio State's a seven and a half point favorite, up
a little bit from the seven that had opened at
the total sitting flat at forty six and a half
that hasn't moved whether here. A lot of people are
trying to say it's going to be a big deal,

(32:37):
but this game, it's going to be right around thirty
two degrees with no rain, a little bit of wind.
As of right now a week out, what do you
make of this matchup? Do you think Tennessee can pull
off the upset or do you think Ohio State's going
to be ticked off enough after that Michigan game that
they're going to go out and blow doors the.

Speaker 5 (32:53):
Ladder or not. I Tennessee has struggled on the road
various times this year, put up fourteen against Arkansas, and
that they're only averaging three hundred and twenty two and
a half yards per game in their losses, whether as
they're averaging over five hundred yards in their wins, and

(33:14):
I just don't think they're gonna get to that number
against this Ohio State defense or anywhere near there. And
because Ohio State's defense grades out as one to two
along with Texas like there, those two are like the
one to two defenses in the country, and I just
don't see Tennessee being able to put up the numbers
that are going to need to pull off upset in
the horseshoe.

Speaker 2 (33:35):
Do you have a favorite play on the board, be
it a side or total entering the first round or
for any other odds that are out across bowl games
or even Army Navy.

Speaker 5 (33:47):
My favorite, I still think I'm gonna even though it's
a hefty line, I'm still feeling like Texas. I think
they're minus eleven last I saw, or very close to that.
I feel like that line with the Texas assuming doesn't
get to two touchdowns, I feel pretty comfortable with that
line even against Dabo and company there, so that I

(34:11):
feel like that's the one that I highlighted first, and
that's the one that I like the most in terms
of the first round games.

Speaker 2 (34:18):
Very good Chris Benzene again Road a Wire college football
editor and a new friend of the program as of
last August when we began Back to School week. He
is on Twitter at Chris B two seven two zero
zero two. Chris. We enjoyed it, man, and we'll definitely
do it again here. Bet you know, happy happy betting

(34:38):
throughout this college football playoff. Hopefully it's as exciting as
as the committee and everybody else wants it to be.

Speaker 5 (34:46):
Yes, I'm excited to see a first year of twelve
team playoffs. I'm looking forward to.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
It hopefully resounding success for the teams and betters alike. Again,
Chris Benzene from Road to Wire. We will step aside
and we come back. We give you some bank roll
repairs for the weekend.

Speaker 1 (35:03):
It's time for your bank roll repair powered by today's collision.

Speaker 2 (35:10):
All right, we are back watching the end of this
Rams Niners game and uh La up by three with
the ball just inside the two minute warning. Here, what
are they determining on this quad box? What's your good night?
San Francisco?

Speaker 6 (35:27):
Here?

Speaker 2 (35:27):
Dan was there first down? You're a million years in
front of me, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (35:32):
Telling, I'm telling you. Got to watch on twitch, man, apparently. Yeah,
uh yeah, first down in San Francisco Kolby Parkinson. So
our first down in La is it? They're at the twenties.

Speaker 2 (35:44):
Are the Niners out of timeouts at this point?

Speaker 3 (35:46):
They just took one before right after they converted, so
they have one left. Wait a minute, face.

Speaker 2 (35:51):
If they could buy some miracle force all into a
field goal here, then at least we could maybe get
some passing yards.

Speaker 3 (35:58):
Yeah, but I don't know. I'm like in danger of
losing every single bet I placed in this game tonight, which.

Speaker 2 (36:04):
I have a couple of things that I'm like, it
would be nice if the Niners got the ball back.
You know, we could cash a bank roll repair, if
we could get nine yards out of Jennings right, obviously
they'd be throwing.

Speaker 3 (36:15):
One deep shot to Debo, right, seriously, Like, that's tough.

Speaker 2 (36:21):
Can we get Can we just get a stop? Get
the field goal?

Speaker 4 (36:25):
That?

Speaker 2 (36:26):
Uh, that would be helpful, very very helpful, but uh,
probably not. The way things have gone so far in
this game is get to some bank roll repairs for
the weekend. It is Thursday. That's when our guy Brian decides, uh,
he's he wants to get involved in the football weekend.
I'm gonna be curious if Brian starts throwing out these
bank roll repairs again. We get back to like baseball season,

(36:49):
when it's just misery for everybody.

Speaker 8 (36:51):
Yeah, that's usually when I take a back seat.

Speaker 3 (36:53):
Yeah, even more than I already do.

Speaker 2 (36:55):
All right, what do you got?

Speaker 8 (36:56):
All Right, We're gonna start with the Baltimore Ravens to
go over to two and a half points against the Giants.
We're gonna bring the total of the Indie Denver game
up from forty four to fifty three and a half,
So we need to go under fifty three and a
half Indie and Denver, and we're gonna take Tampa all
the way up to plus eleven against the Chargers. Put
those three together minus one of two on DraftKings.

Speaker 2 (37:17):
Okay, Dan, all right.

Speaker 3 (37:19):
We're going Drake May one hundred and seventy five plus
passing yards. He's reached this in every single game that
he started that he's finished in his career. We're gonna
go the Leak Neighbors to have at least forty receiving yards.
He's done this in every single game in his career.
And then Garrett Wilson forty plus receiving yards. He's done
that in eleven of thirteen this season. You put those
three legs together and you get a nice plus one

(37:40):
o one on DraftKings.

Speaker 2 (37:42):
All right, I've got a three legger for you. It
begins and hopefully continues with success. On Saturday, a game
that we have not talked about. We're not gonna talk
much about it here either, but pretty you know, heavy favorites.
We're just we're trusting a heavy favorite on the money line,
and that is South Dakota State nineteen point favorites, just

(38:04):
going with them on the money line. South Dakota State
carry us over into the NFL on Sunday. And two
spots that I really liked. Be curious to see if
either one, you know, winds up being an official show
play from Doug Gazarian or I mean you, I don't
know what your play's going to be. But I I
like these spots quite a bit. I don't know how

(38:25):
I feel about their spreads, but I like them in
terms of just winning on the money line, and that
is the Commanders at New Orleans Saints with Heener Hayner
on the other side, he stinks, so the Commanders that
we'll get a nice performance here in this one. Out
of really out of I think out of everyone, I
think Brian Robinson is in a particularly good spot rushing

(38:48):
quite frankly, but Jaden Daniels look better of late with
that rib injury that he had suffered earlier in the year.
I like Washington to win this one and then Cincinnati
at Tennessee. We're back in the Bengals again till they
completely let us down and missed the playoffs. I am
backing Cincinnati, especially with Will Levis on the other side
and that Titans team that is remarkably underwhelming. So you

(39:11):
put Cincy and Washington again, both money lines, with the
money line for South Dakota State all together plus one
oh three available to you on DraftKings. So that's a
one oh three, a one oh one, and a minus
one oh two all on DK for you for your
bankroll repairs for the weekend and hopefully a whole lot

(39:32):
of success. We're gonna step aside when we come back.
It's going to be nothing but NFL the rest of
the way, and Doug Kazarian only players going to join
us when we come back.

Speaker 1 (39:45):
That was your bankroll repair powered by today's Collision with
locations involved in Chelsea Stoneham and Dan Very. Check them
out at today's Collision dot Com. The Gambler starts now
here's Adam Kaufman, Hour.

Speaker 2 (40:01):
Number two of The Gambler with Adam Kauffman. You're on WRKO.
A lot of college football talk in the opening hour.
This one all NFL off people's parlay in a little while.
Week fifteen has started with a thud. Definitely for us
as a show, but not a I'm entertaining game by
any means either. The Rams did win. They did win,

(40:23):
got the upset twelve to six at San Francisco. Tell
you what, guys, I had personally been green for seven
or eight straight days and and and like really green,
feeling real good, like to thank the Niners for emphatically
ending that streak. Don't even know what it's gonna look
like at the end of this day, but it's not gonna.

Speaker 3 (40:44):
Be pretty, gonna be personally, I didn't even even.

Speaker 2 (40:49):
Just one seventy five out of party would have negated
a lot of damage for me. But Nope, couldn't complete
anything on that final little possession that San Francis gohead.
Bad show day, bad bad show day, I'm like, like,
I'm punishing a dog. Bad show day. Uh, let's let's
turn around. Here's to a better rest of week fifteen.

(41:11):
Let's bring in our friend Doug Kazarian from Only players
dot com. He is on Twitter at Doug Kazarian. That
is k ea Z I R I A n Doug,
how tonight? Treat you.

Speaker 4 (41:27):
Very well? Because I only risked twenty six units on
the NFL and won five units in the NBA.

Speaker 2 (41:33):
That's what you need to do much better.

Speaker 4 (41:35):
Just to clarify, Adam, I want to make sure everyone
heard that. So you said, like you're punching a dog.
Is that a normal behavior?

Speaker 2 (41:43):
Punishing punishing a dog? There's no Michael Vick. No, yeah, no,
Michael Vick stuff going on around here. Don't let's not
do that punching please, Like.

Speaker 4 (41:55):
A people wanted to clarification on that.

Speaker 2 (41:57):
So yeah, that's important. I mean, I don't think I
said punching, but if I did, Yeah, it's a good
thing that you pointed that out. All right, let's get
into these games. We got fifteen games, Doug that we're
gonna need to get through here, so we're gonna have
to I don't know attempt to do this expediently. We'll
see how we do here. We'll track it as we go. Obviously,
it's you know, it's a full slate, last normal week

(42:20):
of the regular season before Saturday and Wednesday games start
to get involved here, and every game, with the exception
of Jets Jaguars in some form has sort of playoff
implications or just survival importance, whatever it may be. Let's
start with the Commanders and Saints Washington here seventh in

(42:41):
the NFC, a game behind Green Bay. New Orleans is
two games behind Tampa Bay for the NFC South lead.
We're looking at the Commanders as seven and a half
point favorites, and I mean, look that they should win
this game. They should win this game going away with
Jake Hayner on the other side in place of Derek Carr. Obviously,

(43:02):
but how do you handicap this one?

Speaker 4 (43:07):
So if this were Spencer Rattler, I would be all
over the Commanders because I think he stinks. And Washington,
I understand the line move from seven to seven and
a half, but I think Jake Hayn is like kind
of the perfect quarterback for this situation. In a lot
of ways, they have a bad offensive line. You got
to get rid of the ball. Haynter has sort of
that NFL offense in his pedigree much. You know, he's

(43:31):
not a mobile guy like Rattler was. I just think
he's going to get rid of the ball, check down,
throw underneath. I think it's a really good decision by
New Orleans if they want to be competitive in this game,
to play him. I am annoyed because I wanted to
play Washington. I thought it was a good spot for
the Commanders, especially on the turf with Jayden Dingels. I

(43:52):
think it's just like the speed of the I led
itself to Washington covering. But I'm just a little uneasy
because I think is way more confident that we've seen
with the New Orleans offense. When Derek Carr is out,
and obviously you just want to remind everyone Taysom Hill
is also out, so that's a big weapon in the

(44:12):
red zone. So New Orleans could be pretty pretty limited here, Doug.

Speaker 3 (44:18):
The Dolphins Texans game should be a fun one. Houston
at home. They're laying three points against the Miami team
that is kind of heated up here lately. They've won
four out of their last five. That one loss was
on Thanksgiving night in the freezing cold, no worries about that.
And this for this one in Houston in the Dome
for TUA, who do you like in this matchup?

Speaker 4 (44:37):
So for me, I was leaving Miami, right, it's just
you get the full three points and you just see,
like tonight on Thursday Night Football, how valuable the plus
three can be in some of these games that can
go either way, right, I mean the Rams with a
dog ended up winning. It was plus three earlier in
the week. But even if the Niners come back, and
it's just that plus three is so valuable because you're

(44:58):
getting that in the coin flip game in a lot
of ways. Now, the Texans should be pretty good. I
think we have to evaluate this team with Nico Collins
in a wide receiver, obviously, this team is not delivered
with the expectations we had coming into the season. Last year,
they were able to sneak up on people, rookie head coach,
rookie quarterback, all that good stuff. Now they have expectations

(45:24):
and it's they've had some kind of dud performances, especially lately.
They've really laid some eggs. You know, they barely beat Jacksonville.
They lose the Tennessee at home, and then they beat Dallas,
but that game kind of went their way on that
Monday night, and that was after back to back losses.
So I'm not enamored with this Houston team. I think
you have to take the plus three. What's given me pause?

(45:46):
That was a very very very sharp syndicate group took
the minus three, you know, off the buy or whatever.
It's the really good spots to back them. I guess
I see it. But with Miami, you have two quarterback
who wants to get the ball and get rid of
it quickly, and I think that negates the Texans pressure.

(46:07):
So tuas sort of, you know, a version of throwing deep.
I think that actually plays well against the pass rush
at a defense like Houston.

Speaker 2 (46:16):
So I told you Jets Jaguars totally meaningless this weekend.
It's true. Nevertheless, we got to talk about it at
least a little bit. His games in Jacksonville. The Jets
three three and a half point favorites. Depending on where
you look. Obviously you take the three if you like
New York at that three and a half, you like
the Jaguars. Mac Jones supporters may like the Jaguars, because,
as Dan brought up on the show, Mac is five

(46:38):
and zero in his career against the Jets. But obviously
New York is you know, coming off Aaron Rodgers' best
game as a Jet came in a loss that collapse
against Miami. But nevertheless, Rogers was pretty good. He's going
to face a similarly poor Jaguars pass rush on the
other side that has the second worst pressure rate and
also a pretty poor secondary. So I would think Devanta Adams,

(47:01):
Garrett Wilson props are on the table here in this one.
Breese Hall may not play that. Monitors watching clearly, But
what's the view of this contest?

Speaker 4 (47:15):
I mean, hopefully there's no view. I don't want to
be watching it at all. I was on the Titans
last week against the Jags. Man, this team stinks, This
offense stinks, and they just march up the field. I
don't get it. Will Levis is terrible in terms of
this game. This is back to back road games in
the state of Florida for the Jets. You see the

(47:35):
level of incompetence and bad coaching with how DeVante Adams
went out of bounds on that third down pass. I
mean it's really inexcusable for a team to do that.
But I can't really get behind Jacksonville. This is a
hard pass. I think under is the play for me,
but we just saw this Jets offense sort of click. Still, man,

(47:58):
I have to play under here just because I don't
think jackson do anything. But I also don't want to
lay three and a half points.

Speaker 3 (48:03):
So you're just talking about how stinky Will Levis is. Well,
let's talk about the Tennessee Titans here. They're getting four
and a half or five points at home against the Bengals.
Looks like we're gonna have a little bit of weather
in this game with some rain, Doug. You know, Cincinnati
they got to win out and then some they need
some help to get into the playoffs. Here, we know
the offense is awesome, the defense is terrible. Total sitting

(48:24):
at forty six forty six and a half, where are
we going here?

Speaker 4 (48:28):
This is my favorite player of the weekend, and it's
the under in this game. Will Levice he's playing. I mean,
there's part of me that think he's Lebron James's kid
in terms of like the reason he's playing. I don't
get it. He's unplayable, but he's still playing. I think
the defense is competent. I'm not saying it's good. There's
some skewed stats whatever. They were playing better earlier in

(48:49):
the year. But the Cincinnati, I mean even Monday Night
with that high scoring first half, we saw that game
go under. Ultimately, the Bengals offense is really good. The
defense has been leaky, but I don't know if it's
gonna be leaking against this Titans. You mentioned the weather.
I think the unders the play here. I think we
see like twenty three seventeen twenty three ten Titans are
that incompetent, and I think the Bengals rejuvenated a little bit. Look,

(49:15):
obviously the Bengals defense is always a concern, but forty
six and a half is a big number, So I'll
take the under.

Speaker 2 (49:22):
Ravens Giants is a game that probably fascinates me more
than it should if I'm being honest. Sixteen and a
half sixteen point favorites Baltimore, and look, the trends do
support it. Lamar Jackson. He is nine and three against
the spread as a ten plus point favorite. The Ravens
nineteen eight and one ats after a loss dating back

(49:44):
to twenty twenty, handful of years. Biggest spread on the
board that we've got this weekend, the biggest spread on
the board we've had so far this year. And yet
even still I'm inclined to go there, Doug. The Giants
are averaging ten points a game at home.

Speaker 4 (50:00):
You know, I'm with you in terms of the intrigue
of this game. I actually think like this is way
more intriguing than a lot of other games on the
card because, like everything you mentioned, it's the largest point spread,
it's the Giants sixteen and a half point dogs. You
have the tanking component. Here's a Giants team that stumbled
into a point spread cover of course the first week.
I you know, stade them and they're just incompetent. You

(50:25):
lose dexter lawrence that's massive, and you saw the defense,
I mean just the Saints were so bad. The only
time the Giants got any sort of offense was after
a missed field goal by New Orleans and then a
fake punt that was unsuccessful at midfield, and then the
Lions can and then the Giants can do anything, and
then at the very end they could have I think

(50:45):
this is a beatdown. I think the Ravens smoke him,
I would lay it. There's no way I want any
part of Tommy DeVito. I think he stinks. I think
the Giants want the number one pick. I think they're
starting him for a reason, although luck is hurt. I
think there's a reason they went to him. You know
this this line. Old school betters will be like, Oh,
this line's out ragious, blah blah. This line looks outrageous

(51:07):
until the Ravens go up seven to nothing and the
live line is going to be twenty and a half.

Speaker 3 (51:13):
So the Kansas City Chiefs had not covered in seven
straight games. That's the largest such streak in Andy Reid's
coaching career. Doug, they're laying four, four and a half,
depending on where you're looking at Cleveland. You got Jamis
on the other side. He's been asking the Lord to
deliver him from pick sixes if he didn't throw any
of those last week, but he still threw two interceptions.

(51:33):
Does Kansas City finally cover in this one on the road?

Speaker 4 (51:37):
No, I don't think so. My favorite bet last week
was the over and that Jamis Winston game against the Steelers,
and it went under by two and a half points.
Even though you got two missfield goals by the Browns
and a couple of picks. It's just just so painful
Jamis experience. Whatever I think the Browns at home should
have should sort of circle the wagons here. I think
there's a little bit of a relaxation with Chiefs after

(51:59):
the win and Buffalo loss. You know, they have that
little buffer because obviously they lose the tiebreaker to the Bills,
and then the Bills are playing in Detroit. So I'm
torn here at some point, like I've been on Kansas City.
I was on him against the Raiders, which is the
biggest spread during this run where they didn't cover anything,
but I will say they were of sixteen three and

(52:20):
it was a good spot and all that good stuff.
So in terms of this game, I like the over
more than anything is Jamis just led itself to overs.
I think their defense is really weak, their key injuries,
and I think forty two and a half forty three
is just incredibly low. But this number has been getting
bet down since it hit forty six a couple of
days ago, so that's got to be whether related. Nonetheless,

(52:43):
I'm looking to the over, but I think the Browns
plus the points. I thought the Chiefs played sort of
a playoff game last week. The Chargers were hitting hard,
tackling well. Kansas City took their best shot. Chargers then
punch back missed the bomb. I think this is a
little bit of a letdown or Kansas City. I'm not
saying they're gonna lose, but this game could be a

(53:05):
little skicky. I can see the Browns leading at halftime
and things like that, but I'm not exactly going on
a limb saying the Chiefs may not cover because they
don't cover. Like you said, seven in a row, but
this number is relatively short all these other games where
they were favored. So during the seventh game runa, they
were an underdog in one of those, so throw that out.

(53:26):
The other six they were favored by four and a
half or more so, and that was last week. Before that,
it was like seven eight and a half. So it's
better to fade them in when they're big spreads. But
I think I have to take the home dog here.
There's thing, there's things I like about the Browns offense
at times.

Speaker 2 (53:44):
Nine more games to discuss with Doug Kazarian, plus the
People's Parlay for your football betting weekend, stay tuned. Just
going through some betting slip stand and I mentioned this
Brian before, but I had Ricky pearsall over sixteen and
a half yards in this game.

Speaker 3 (54:05):
Yep.

Speaker 2 (54:06):
He had one catch for sixteen yards, which just so
perfectly sums up my night. Yep, it really does, really
really does a lot of hooks in there.

Speaker 3 (54:16):
I live, I live bet so FANDL had that live
boost U twenty five. At halftime, Perty's rushing line was
sitting at seven and a half. Took that finished with
three like he had been over that in every single
game this season. Like I thought, for shit forty one
last time they played. Yeah, I thought he might scramble
a little bit. I was over on it's rush attempts
before the game. But that wasn't even the slightest bit

(54:37):
of a thought in the forty nine ers offense.

Speaker 2 (54:41):
With a bet that I made at halftime, I included
Cooper Cup to have two catches. Brian just looked it up.
This is the first game that Cup healthy had zero
catches since when Brian.

Speaker 3 (54:52):
November ten, twenty nineteen. Wow, pre COVID, before the OVID,
before the pandemic.

Speaker 2 (55:00):
Before the Giant Beard did not deliver for us. All right,
we got nine games still to go with Kazarian here,
Doug Kazarian from only Players check out only players dot com.
Maybe you can have you know, subscribed to the service
have as good a night as he did versus some
of the stuff that we're telling you about here on
this show tonight. Cowboys and Panthers, this one is quasi meaningless. Dallas,

(55:21):
of course mathematically alive, but let's be realistic. Three games
behind Washington for seventh and the final seed. Obviously in
the NFC, Panthers they are done. So we're looking at
a three point spread the Panthers. The Panthers one more time.
The Panthers are favorites in this game. Actually a fact.

(55:43):
I looked it up. The last time the Carolina Panthers
were favored in a game, it was like Cooper Cup Territory.

Speaker 4 (55:49):
No.

Speaker 2 (55:50):
Two years. It's been two years since the Panthers were
favored in a game. They are three, three and fourteen
straight up and against the spread in their last seventeen
games as favorites. But damn it, they're plucky, right They've
covered the spread in five straight games.

Speaker 4 (56:05):
Doug as an underdog an underdog. In fact, no, I
actually do think it's the right side. I grab some
money line right when it came out, just because Dallas
was off that big Monday night game, Like how invested,
how emotionally ready is this team going to be come Sunday?

(56:29):
You know, they had a big Monday night game. Excruciating loss,
as excruciating of a loss as you can get, all
things considered with the muff punt touchdown at the end,
just bizarre, bizarre sequence of events. And now you go
to a little old Carolina who, like you said, it's
plucky playing better. The problem is, I still think Bryce
Young is a backup quarterback in this league, and I

(56:51):
wonder if Parsons, just being the professional that he is,
does reacavoc and a lot of Young's play have been
broken down escapability and then you know, flush on the
pocket and passing. He doesn't have this quickness that like
maybe Kyler Murray has, but he's fast in the open,

(57:11):
but he gets caught by d linemen and linebackers like
he's just not that fast. So I just wonder he's
still too short all that stuff. But with that being said,
what am I getting out of Dallas? Like they may
not show up at all at all, And I mean,
I'm torn in pickham leagues. I have to side with
the Carolina Panthers because I think that's ultimately the right side.

(57:34):
But it's really hard to lay points with such a
bad team.

Speaker 3 (57:37):
So that brings us to the Battle of Pennsylvania. The
Steelers head across the state to Philly to take on
the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (57:43):
Dug.

Speaker 3 (57:43):
The Eagles have won nine in a row, but there
is some infighting there apparently maybe maybe not, who knows.
They've said a whole bunch of different things there this
week between Jalen Hurts and aj Brown, Brown with one
of the best quotes of the season, asked what's wrong
with the passing game in Philly? And he just says
the passing Yeah, I mean pretty awesome. There, just a
great line. Meanwhile, at Pittsburgh's won seven out of eight.

(58:05):
Russ is cooking Pittsburgh getting five and a half yere
on the road, the total forty two and a half
forty three. Where are we going?

Speaker 4 (58:14):
You know, we all saw the ending last week right
like that was very fortunate for the Eagles to escape
with the win, and obviously they did not cover the
fourteen points. So during this nine game win streak, which
has been incredible, they've not covered three times. So six
and three I have to take Pittsburgh here. Rarely do

(58:35):
I get involved in big games. It's usually these ugly
games that I get involved with, But I'm actually on Pittsburgh.
I like, it's one of my favorite plays. Five and
a half is just way too many points. I understand
that the Steelers are not great, but they're pretty good.
They came into the ears the division long shot at
eleven to one to win the division. And what happens

(58:56):
with the betting market is it's just very stubborn, and
I mean, like the power ratings don't adjust right away
overnight and the baseline stats they used last year's and
this year, so it really is slow moving. So if
you have a team that's clearly going to outpour perform
a market, you can really get ahead of it. So
the Steelers are ten and three against the spread this year.

(59:17):
That's tied for the best mark in the entire nfl ats,
next to Denver. So why are those two teams outperforming
the market? And you almost have to work backwards, so
we know the points spread the great equalizer and I
get it's supposed to be fifty to fifty, but at
the end of the year, we don't have teams that
are going to be nine to eight and eight nine
against the spread. It just doesn't work like that. We're

(59:37):
going to have some twelve sort of twelve and five
ATS teams and then some five and twelves, but mostly
it's just a couple of twelve advice right, So the
question you ask yourself, can Denver and Pittsburgh continue to
outperform the market? If so wide? Why are they going
to finish the last three four games with such strong
ATS marks? And it's because of two things. One, Pittsburgh

(59:57):
gets such low expectations coming into the air that division
long shot, and they're getting way more competent quarterback play
than we thought. Russell Wilson's been playing pretty well in
the defense obviously he has been great. And then Tomlin
delivering so and then with Denver, I just think a
bow Nix is improving at a greater scale than the
markets of adjusting at and with Pittsburgh, Tomlin is five

(01:00:20):
and oh outright this year in the underdog role. So
I'm getting five and a half against the Philly team
that you guys mentioned in house shaky miss some bickering.
I saw a tweet a few weeks ago saying, everyone
but Eagles fans thinks they're Super Bowl contender. I just
think the Philly fans have it's been shaky with Elliott,

(01:00:42):
their kicker, Sirianni, their coach. There's just no one who
they don't like anyone. Hurts has been shaky a lot.
I mean, Barkley is the only sort of apple of
everyone's eye in Philly, but besides that, man, they've been
super shaky. So I got to take the five and
a half with a team that I know is going
to be ready to rock and come buttoned up, and
and their offense is stretching the field a little bit.

(01:01:03):
So whatever Bryce Young could do last week, I think
Wilson can do it as well and be more accurate.

Speaker 2 (01:01:08):
This next game here, Doug, I hope is a Super
Bowl preview. Bills Lions Detroit two and a half point
favorites in this one. You know it's important with respect
to seeding. I know, we know they're going to the playoffs,
but Buffalo, two games behind Kansas City for the top
spot in the AFC, still loosely chasing that. As we
wind down the regular season, Detroit holds a one game

(01:01:30):
lead on Philadelphia in the NFC also just a one
game lead on Minnesota in the NFC North. So, by
no means is everything wrapped up for the Lions at
this stage. This is an important game, especially on that
Detroit side, and the Lions they are just to throw
a trend at people. Eleven and two pardon me, against

(01:01:51):
the spread in the first halves of games this season,
averaging almost twenty points per game in that first half,
whereas the Bills slow starts they allow fifteen points per
game on the road in the opening halves of contests.
We've seen their struggles, the Lions with mobile quarterbacks, scrambling quarterbacks.
Josh Allen, He's coming off that historic game, three passing touchdowns,

(01:02:13):
three rushing touchdowns, had never been done before. Seems like
a great spot for aman Ross Saint Brown in this
matchup as well. Where do you go.

Speaker 4 (01:02:23):
What Detroit is doing? And I know they don't incorporate
the point spread and coach of the year, but the
fact that they've been able to avoid all the flat
spots and look ahead and continue to churn out wins
with stand all these injuries and be nine to four
against the spread when they came in as one of
the favorites of the high expectations, and they just keep delivering.
Now they haven't covered the last two games, but they're

(01:02:46):
twenty one to nine ATS this the last two seasons
just absolute beasts, and it's been very impressive this year.
This year versus last year was the concept of playing
with success. So last year they were undefeated off a loss,
and ats undefeated they were, so when they got sort
of a little fat and happy, they suffered a lot letdown,

(01:03:07):
like we saw that on Thanksgiving last year, things like that.
This year they are bringing it every week and it's
been really impressive. And I'm, you know, as a guy
who's not the biggest Dan Campbell backer and supporter all
these years because I think he'll screw up with a
lot of his decision making. I've been really impressed with
his ability to rally the locker room. And to your
point about Buffalo man, it's a tough spot. So like

(01:03:28):
last week, they had to fly across country after clinching
the division and doing snow angles on Sunday night in
the snow and all this stuff. It was a really
bad spot. But now you got back to back games
on the road and you're facing this Detroit team. I know,
a really sharp group that took Detroit plus two and
a half. That's what moved the market to two. It's
now back to two and a half. I lean Detroit. Actually,

(01:03:52):
I think to your point, I think there might be
better ways to play this with the first half team total.
I do think Dan Campbell is going to be used.
I think he's going to try to get golf some touchdowns.
I think he's going to try to get him in
the MVP if he can. Campbell is about sort of
winning his players, and I think if he can do
some stuff and pull some strings and win over the

(01:04:13):
locker room with golf and do all that, I would
look to some golf props. I actually think he's you
know what happens in a play sheet with a coach
is you know, you look down, it's like third and
medium in the red zone and you have I don't know,
ten plays with equal success rate, right, and let's say
half of them are throws and half of them are runs.
So he's not going to call a sneak on a

(01:04:34):
three yard line because he wants golf to get a
touchdown if it's fifty to fifteen. His head in terms
of which play a call, he's going to say, let's
call it pass because he wants golf so and it's
a little bit of a deception because they limit him
a little bit at times. So I like the some
player props involving golf. I think he's gonna have touchdown pass.
I think I think there's gonna be some stat patting
here because I think Campbell's just wired that way. But

(01:04:54):
I do think that maybe Detroit first half, I like
the stat you mentioned. I'm going to dig deeper now
that I've heard it. The really first half scoring is
always really interesting, and there are teams that play these
halves in two different ways. Last year, sorry, two years ago,
a team like the Eagles, they had the fastest sort
of pace in the first half to turnaround in terms

(01:05:18):
of time between plays. They had the fewest amount of
seconds between plays because they just ran tempo, tempo temple
and scored and then that died in the second half.
So their game plan was to bleed, was to bleed
time in the second half to get the lead and
then bleed it in the second half, and I think
the Lions can do a lot of that as well.
So in terms of scoring and offense and all that stuff.

(01:05:40):
They rank first in the NFL by three full points
to the next closest team eighteen point four points per half,
and then Buffalo's up there as well. They're tied for third.
But that's a remarkable stat but some of that was
stat padding, and just when they were trucking team and
the trucking teams in the first half uffloat to your point,

(01:06:00):
as the second half they lead the NFL at second
half scoring in Detroit tenth, so maybe you have a
little bit of an edge with that first half sort
of number in the first half.

Speaker 2 (01:06:09):
Team total six more games on the way with Doug
and a people's parlay. Hang with us. We'll be right back,
all right, Doug Zarian's here from only Players. Here's the deal.
We've got about ten minutes to get through six games
and a people's parlay for the weekend. So let's see
how we do Colts Broncos as we move out to Denver,

(01:06:32):
a game that honestly, I probably should be more interested
in giving its level of importance than I actually am.
You look at the Colts, two games behind Houston for
the AFC South lead, two games behind Denver for the
seventh and final seed in the conference. Denver three way
tie with Baltimore and the Chargers at eight and five
for those five, six, seven seeds in the conference as well. Denver,

(01:06:56):
as Dan notes, six to zero against the spread as
a favorite this year, four and a half point favorite
this weekend, to be exact, What do you think you're done?

Speaker 4 (01:07:07):
Just piggyback and when I was talking about earlier with
the with the Broncos being ten and three against the spread,
the market is obviously shifting. They're now in the favorite
role more often. So this will be the third straight
fourth rate game. Excuse me that Denver will be a favorite,
but they've covered all three and I like him. They've
covered four straight, six or seven. I just think Botnick
is improving at a different rate than the market is

(01:07:28):
adjusting for the Cleveland. Sorry, the Denver Broncos power rating. Now,
Colts are kind of unpredictable, right they have the long
ball with Richardson. I just think he sticks, stinks, is
an incompetent team, incompetent quarterback and is not a long
term starting quarterback in the NFL. But they still haven't
quite figured that out and arrived at that conclusion. So

(01:07:49):
I'm on Denver here. It's not a big play or
anything like that. The over unders gone up. I understand it.
Denver offense has been opening up. I would probably play
the over more than I would play the side. But
the over runners come up a couple points. It's still
fairly low all things considered in that game.

Speaker 3 (01:08:11):
So that brings us to the Patriots and the Cardinals
out in the desert. We did a full game preview
of this one last night, Doug, and we found that
Kyler Murray has just been terrible in the second half
of the season. Twelve and twenty six. That's his actual
record post week nine in his NFL career. His Cardinals
are laying six six and a half points against the
Patriots team that's off of by trying to build some

(01:08:32):
momentum as they head into the offseason. But who do
you got in this one?

Speaker 4 (01:08:38):
Yeah? I think the shines worn't off on Arizona. I've
been on the wrong end of him a little bit.
I Kyler Murray's good in the second half. The back
door covers when there's prevent defenses and he can run
around and just sort of stat pad the stats. With
three straight losses, I wonder if we're going to see
a really good effort from them, because I think that
team is pretty confident, and I even mentioned this last week.

(01:09:00):
Of course it didn't prove to be right. But that's
a sneaky, like tough home field advantage that they have
out there in Glendale, Arizona Patriots. Though they've been bringing
it every week. They've been more and more competent each game.
I like Drake May the number feels high. We just
saw the Niners snap their three game skit, so at
some point these players don't get to the NFL because

(01:09:21):
they're just punching bags a weekend a week got it.
I'm expecting a good effort out of Arizona, but I'm
also expecting a good effort out of New England. So
it feels like a tough game. I think you have
to take the points here, but it's going to be
one of those ugly covers if it's a cover.

Speaker 2 (01:09:37):
Bucks and Chargers. We don't actually have clarity on the
quarterback situation for LA just yet, with Justin Herbert even
still two and a half point favorites at home. Interesting note, though,
the Bucks twelve and three against the spread in their
last fifteen road games. That includes outright wins against the
Lions and Packers and overtime game with the Chiefs. Basically

(01:09:59):
what I'm saying as a team that does not cower
on the road with Baker Mayfield. So what are the
expectations for this game?

Speaker 4 (01:10:07):
I like the over. I think the Chargers team. We
saw them be one of the best defensive units statistically
in the NFL the first like I don't know, six
seven games of the year, but they were facing terrible
quarterbacks like Spencer Rattler and just backups left and right.
Bryce Young week two before he got benched whoever, the
Raiders were trotting out a quarterback. They've just been the

(01:10:27):
beneficiaries of fortunate scheduling. And then we saw them face
good offenses and they got lit up right the Bengals
took it to them. They've just been torched by Ravens
I think on Monday night or Sunday night, I can't remember.
And then last week Atlanta, just Kirk Cousins was just
a mess, so I actually and then Tampa got away with.

(01:10:49):
I mean the Raiders were down fourteen to ten, had
the ball inside the ten yard line, and then O'Connell
throws a pick. So these I think we're poised for
an over here with between Tampa Bay and the Chargers,
and then we know Herbert can sling it. I worry
about his ankle, but this Tampa Bay defense is really
bad against outside receivers. Keep an eye on McConkey. Obviously

(01:11:09):
no Dobbins, but I think the Chargers can light up
the secondary. If the Raiders had any decent quarterback play,
they would have done that. So I think I think
we're gonna see an explosion of points here, all things
considered out there so far on the fast track.

Speaker 3 (01:11:24):
So that brings us to Sunday Night football. Green Bay
favored by two and a half points on the road,
they're in Seattle. The total here, Doug forty five and
a half, forty six and a half. What do we
make of this matchup?

Speaker 4 (01:11:36):
Which game?

Speaker 3 (01:11:36):
I'm sorry, Sunday Night, Green Bay, Seattle.

Speaker 4 (01:11:39):
Yeah, so I lean over here too. I'm just so.
I heard a very sharp podcast, very sharp Handicapper talked
about this juncture of the season last year. How teams
that were on the fringe of playoffs, and when when
it's a matchup of two teams that has sort of
those swing, you know, playoff probability games. So if it's like, oh,

(01:11:59):
with a lost, they're thirty one percent to make the playoffs.
With a win, they're sixty eight, you know, one of
those games, and you just see points, like teams go
down swinging with the pass. And that's sort of what
happened last week with Arizona and Seattle, and I think
we kind of see it this week again. Now that
was supposed to happen tonight on Thursday Night football, but
Bosa was a late ad the weather and then just
incompetence inside the red zone and Purty still banged up.

(01:12:21):
So I think it was a much different situation than
we have on Sunday night. I like Green Bay, but
I understand the money that's coming at plus three to
keep this from going back to three, so I would
side with the over. I think this Jordan Love led
offense can sling it around Seattle when he has time
to throw. Gino is pretty solid and has the weapons.

(01:12:45):
I think we see points here as well. I mean,
I don't like all these overs. I'm leaning for, but
these totals seem pretty low.

Speaker 2 (01:12:53):
All right, let's get to the Monday night football doubleheader.
We've got about two minutes to hit both these games.
Bears Vikings Minnesota home six and a half point favored.
It's six straight wins versus seven straight losses. Do we
just not overthink this one?

Speaker 5 (01:13:08):
Uh?

Speaker 4 (01:13:10):
I kind of lean to the dog here, but I'm
not betting it yet. Minnesota's a wagon right now and
they faced a really like favorable matchup last week. I
just think the Bears are going to come to play,
and if this defense that puts as much pressure with
Flores pulling the strings as we think. Remember, Caleb Williams

(01:13:32):
is a lot better getting rid of the ball quickly
since they OC took over and they made that change.
So I don't know what the heck happened last week.
I think it was just facing the team with a
bunch of talent off three losses. I think the underdog
is the right side. Actually, I think if you can
get seven here, I think it's an ugly play, but
I think it's the right side. But you know, I'm

(01:13:53):
also a guy who was on the Bears last week,
so be careful.

Speaker 3 (01:13:55):
There, and let's tie a bow on things. Falcons Raiders.
It could be Kirk last Stand on one side and
the other we could have Desmond Ridder revenge game narrative.
Atlanta's laying three and a half for four points on
the road, the total sitting at forty four to forty
four and a half.

Speaker 4 (01:14:10):
Yeah, give me the Falcons all day. I think the
Raiders stink. They're my favorite team, but we're ways away.
I think the Falcons flight them up. I think this
Raiders defense sucks. I think Ridder stinks. I think it's
a get right spot for Atlanta. I think they're gonna
have a field day on offense, running all over this team.
Vegas can't do much as long as they can guard

(01:14:31):
brock Bowers with like triple team. I don't think Ridder
can do anything. I think he's a really bad quarterback.

Speaker 2 (01:14:37):
People's Parlay time, and I.

Speaker 4 (01:14:38):
Think the Raiders want the number one pick.

Speaker 2 (01:14:41):
Yeah, there is that. You got to always have to
acknowledge the tanking element. We've done a people's parlay with
you once before, Sadly it did not hit fours. Let's
be better this time. The three of us, what's your
favorite play Doug.

Speaker 4 (01:14:52):
So I mentioned it earlier. I like the under in
Nashville with the Titans hosting the Bengals forty six and
a half or forty six, depending on the shop. I
think Tennessee's defense is competent enough to sort of just
contain Sincy. I think they're going to get a lead
and lean on it. And I think Tennessee's quarterback Will
Levis is god awful. So I will take the under

(01:15:14):
in Tennessee and Cincinnati.

Speaker 3 (01:15:17):
Dan, I'm gonna go Khalail Shakira over fifty three and
a half receiving yards minus won twenty bet MGM. He's
been over this consistently five out of the last seven.
He's Josh Allen's favorite target. He's getting targeted like eight
times a game or more in the highest total game
of the week. Should be plenty of points, so let's
get a little piece of that with Shakiro on his
receiving yards.

Speaker 2 (01:15:35):
Look, if anyone amongst the three of us is going
to back a team that needs to cover a spread
that requires three scores, it's going to be me. Let's
be honest. The Ravens taking the Ravens to lay the
sixteen they are going against a miserable Giants team in Baltimore.
This is not a take them lightly. This is emphatic win.
And remind everyone who you are because they are two

(01:15:57):
games behind Pittsburgh for the AFC nor lead. This is
an important game for Baltimore and I think we're going
to see that displayed out on the field. So you
put those three plays together and that is thank you.
Brian plus five eighty one on bet MGM. That's what
we're looking to cast this weekend. Doug.

Speaker 4 (01:16:17):
I love it. I love it. I'm very much on
that Ravens side. I keep getting there. I'm sure by
Sunday I'll be heavy on them.

Speaker 2 (01:16:25):
Well, get in before the getting, you know, gets to
seventeen and a half or something. Wild. Doug Cazarian again
on Twitter at that very same name. He is from
only Players, Only players dot com. Make sure you check
it out. Doug, Thanks so.

Speaker 4 (01:16:37):
Much, appreciate it, guys. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Speaker 2 (01:16:42):
Same to you and everyone out there listening. We'll be
right back. Little light forest. Compared to what we're used
to giving out on a Thursday, but eight plays risking
about eight and a half units, How does that make sense? No,
that makes sense, trying to win ourselves. Of course, the

(01:17:04):
almost thirteen so a couple of bank roll repairs. Three
bank roll repairs actually are out there. Everything is posted
on the action app our page. The Gambler with Ak
some straight plays for you group play Army minus six
and a half on Saturday, hopefully start the weekend off right.
And again for your Sunday, I gave you Baltimore minus sixteen.

(01:17:25):
Doug Kazarian who just joined us, gave you the under
forty six and a half Cincinnati and Tennessee. And Dan
here in that Bills game, Khalil Shakir over fifty three
and a half receiving yards. You put those three together
plus five eighty one once again on bet MGM. So
that is what we are chasing this weekend, Dan sweet.

Speaker 3 (01:17:46):
Yeah like it a lot of points to lay. But yeah,
if there's one team in one matchup that I would do,
it would be the Baltimore Ravens.

Speaker 2 (01:17:54):
Everybody really thought that we were going to get points
in this game tonight, and I again the weather, but goodness, so.

Speaker 3 (01:18:02):
I need a poster, not goal to save my nights
so badly. I can't even lie.

Speaker 2 (01:18:06):
I invested in it as well off your tip, so
I'm rooting for it. Le's got a period to go, right, Yep,
let's hope for the best big tying goal out of
poster not could be nice. We'll, you know, I'm sure
in our text thread go back and forth on some narratives,
maybe make a couple of things show official that are
not so far they're really there. I didn't get to

(01:18:27):
recite a whole bunch of them with Doug. But you know,
some trends and articles that I was reading on covers
earlier that jumped out. Here's one for instance. And again
I'm not saying we've gotta lock this one in, but
just you know, so you can entertain it. Falcons Raiders.
Every Raiders home game this year has gone over the
first half total. Five of the six Falcons road games

(01:18:48):
have gone over the first half total, so that is
a combined ten and one to the over in the
opening half. First halves in Las Vegas have averaged twenty
three points. Falcons road first tabs have averaged twenty eight points.
The total this week in the opening half twenty two
and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:19:07):
Okay, interesting, could definitely be in the parlor I think
about because my favorite trend and it will be a play.
We'll be justin Jefferson on Monday night. That will be
in our parlay Monday.

Speaker 2 (01:19:17):
That's that's a Monday thing. Let's let's pick up another
you know, dozen units before that happens.

Speaker 3 (01:19:22):
Right, Well, I'm saying that that it could be that
the first half in the Raider game and whatever Brian,
whatever Brian picks could be our parlay.

Speaker 2 (01:19:29):
Sure very well could happen whatever plays we potentially give
you on Friday. Thanks to our guest Brian, Dan and Madam,
have a great weekend, everybody.

Speaker 1 (01:19:38):
You've been listening to The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on
sixt eighty w RKO Boston's first and only nightly sports
betting show, airing live Monday through Thursday nights from ten
to midnight. Listen on demand. Download The Gambler with Adam
Kaufman podcast on the iHeartRadio app, WRKO dot com, slash bet,

(01:19:58):
or wherever you get your your podcasts.

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