Red Sox Playoff Chances & MLB Best Bets, Plus Eagles 2024 Betting Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Gambler starts now. Here's Adam Kaufman.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
Happy Tuesday. Everybody, welcome in. This is the Gambler with
Adam Kauffman. You're on WRKO. We come your way ten
to midnight Eastern time, Monday through Thursday. That means we've
got a couple shows left after this one and a
couple hours here with you. We are keeping an eye
on this Red Sox game in Houston's been back and forth,
some long ball power from both sides. It's a five

(00:28):
all game right now. And because of course this game
is in Houston and began only a couple hours ago,
and with all the offense, we are sitting bottom six still,
so a long way to go in this one. And
hopefully when all of a sudden done a Red Sox win.
Will keep you posted on that obviously, as we go on.
As things stand right now, and the Royals, though it

(00:48):
is bad for our bankroll repair, it is good for
the Red Sox. They're getting pummeled right now, top seven
at home by the Angels. It is a seven to
two game, and so the Red Sox, if they win
and if the Roils lose, will pick up a game
move within three and a half of the third and
final wildcard spot in the American League, actually the second

(01:08):
as well, because the Royals and Twins as things currently
sit each seventy and fifty five, and the Twins are
playing right now as well. So again, let you know
how all of that unfolds across Major League Baseball. It's
been an interesting day. It's certainly been a big day
for k's. If you have any K parlays or anything
like that, you put the right combination together, then you

(01:30):
might be cashing some big tickets tonight. The home runs,
they're getting some randos there. Not a lot of the
guys that were used to seeing Homer each and every night,
but maybe the night's late will improve things a little bit.
And of course, as you heard in the lead into
the show from WBZ, WBZ anchor Nicole Davis over at
our sister station, she mentioned that Connecticut Son winners tonight

(01:54):
at home, our Connecticut Son eight point winners against the Sparks,
a team that really is not good, shouldn't have been
nearly that close. You're talking about a twenty and seventeen
against a six and twenty two team. Nevertheless, an eight
point win over there at the Garden, the very first
women's basketball game, professional women's basketball game to be played
at the Garden, so history being made and a nice

(02:14):
performance out of Connecticut to get the job done there.
All WNBA games are final. Also wins tonight for the
Liberty and Storm. We will talk some WNBA a little
bit later on with a member of the Bet She
Wins podcast and CBS Sports and her hoops stats and
all over the place. Calvin Wetzel is going to join us,

(02:36):
good friend of the program. We will also get into
some baseball with Steve Merrill. He is a host and
analyst over at wager Talk. We'll do that in the
second hour, talk more about the Red Sox and People's parlay,
all of that. We started last night with the NFC
East and breaking down the Dallas Cowboys. Tonight that will
continue with the Philadelphia Eagles, the team that is the
slight favor to win that division after Dallas won it

(02:58):
last year, and we will much of this opening hour
on that.

Speaker 3 (03:01):
But Dan, hello, Hey, what's up. Yeah, a little sweaty
there in that Sun game. Didn't really like it because
you know, we got them into my bank roll repair
minus eight to fifty leg They were losing late in
the third quarter. Luckily they did pull that off, so
the BR is live. But yeah, that got a little
too close to comfort there for just a money line
play in that one.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
Without a doubt. Yours is live. Mine is not in
great shape. It's not dead.

Speaker 4 (03:25):
You know.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
We need some runs out of the Royals. But again
it's a five run game in the seventh, so I
am not overly optimistic there. So here's what we're looking
at right now, looking toward a split in the BR
if in fact, your third and final leg gets the
job done, which is a money line win from the
heavily favorite San Francisco Giants who are scoreless bottom two
with the White Sox. So we'll try and cash that

(03:47):
plus one h three and like I said, a marginal
gain in the BR department if we do get that,
and if mine does not come to fruition, we need
money line wins out of both the Royals and Yankees.
The Yankees are in extra innings right now, mentioned the
Royals are not in good shape. As far as the Straits, well,
people's parlay is dead and I am trying to cash
our only straight right now. A heavily juiced one admittedly,

(04:11):
but you know, win is a win is a win
if you will and hopefully we will. We got your play, Dan,
which was over eight and a half runs Rockies Nationals.
The Rockies scored one run in the opening inning, had
the bases loaded and really had an opportunity to break
that thing open and didn't, and it wound up being

(04:33):
a three to one game. So just the four runs
scored out of the nine, that doesn't get it done.
And our guest, Justin Perry, who had been perfect, he
was two to zero on official plays that he had
given us. He took his first loss, unfortunately, and that
was Cardinal's first five money line that failed against the Brewers.
Tonight the one that we are chasing, and it's top
eight right now. The Cubs, who were down one nothing,

(04:55):
are up three to one at home against the Tigers.
We need Chicago to win to try and key that going.
So you know, we'll let people know on that. As
far as you are you spending too much time with
Brian in studio.

Speaker 3 (05:08):
Maybe we gave you mean there's a glass in the
wall between us and everything. Yeah, I don't know what's
going on, losing PIX.

Speaker 2 (05:13):
Going right through it. Yeah, well, that's it makes me
nervous about coming into the studio the next couple of nights.

Speaker 3 (05:19):
Maybe you can bring some like stage or whatever, Kyrie IRV. Yeah,
just like get the get the bad energy out of here.
I don't know, man, it's it's something's just something's off.
I don't know. It's baseball over with yet, Like I
mean even a little bit football here. I mean, you know,
big news, I made my first college football game bet
of the year today, so you know that's awesome.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
Football football is very much here. As we know, we've
been talking a lot of.

Speaker 3 (05:44):
Like I want to hear like here tonight.

Speaker 2 (05:46):
Yeah, I want to be sweating a game, a real game,
not just these stupid NFL preseason games. But it's true
in terms of college football, I have already let's see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,
nine to I think I've already placed bets on ten
either week zero or Week one games. Okay, point in time,
and you know, no like show official bets as of yet.

(06:09):
Maybe we'll have one Thursday to take us into the weekend.

Speaker 3 (06:12):
I would assure I'd bet.

Speaker 2 (06:14):
That you will have one, just be I would bet
on it.

Speaker 3 (06:17):
Yeah, pun intended that's ten thousand.

Speaker 2 (06:20):
Yeah, I have to imagine that even if I shock
the world and go like WNBA or something like that,
I can all but guarantee you are as safe as
my TOAs Bradley three strikeout minus thirty five hundred line
that you are going to bet football to take us
into the weekend, even if there wasn't a play you liked,
you would bet football just to bet something different.

Speaker 3 (06:41):
Sure, oh, without a doubt. Please, yeah, I can't wait.
I mean I've already jumped on Florida State, which like
everybody is, but for some reason, that line is still
moving towards Georgia Tech, which is really puzzling me. Right now,
it's down to ten and a half. I saw tonight
and it already been moving towards Georgia Tech, and I
thought eleven would be the cutoff there, but still moving,

(07:01):
which is a little weird. I mean, you got the
whole situation that's going on with Delaware State not being able.
They missed their flight today to Hawaii because the bus
showed up late to take.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
Why I am seeing more and more people take the
Hawaii minus thirty nine and a half.

Speaker 3 (07:15):
Yeah, it's now forty and a half on Fanduels I
got it thirty eight and a half that came opened
at twenty seven.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
That's nuts. Yeah, that's crazy.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
So yeah. So apparently Delaware State they did do the
smart thing. They built in an extra day just in
case the screw up happened with the travel. So they
are still scheduled to get to Honolulu on time tomorrow
at some point. But it's just nuts, and I'm just
so glad college football's here. We're so close.

Speaker 2 (07:41):
They should have gone like a week early just to
enjoy the website. I mean, come on, how often do
you hear go to Honolulu? Trick advantage Island, hop a
little bit, check out the Big Island, go to Kwaii,
have yourself a time. Who needs football? You're gonna be
pummeled anyway.

Speaker 3 (07:55):
One would think, Oh they should, They're an FCS team.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
They better again on Hawaii basically on minus forty.

Speaker 3 (08:02):
I dropped the under today or.

Speaker 2 (08:04):
I think I did see that on your action page.
You can check Dan's page out. You should, by the way,
at Dan Watkins our page where we give you all
the show official plays the Gambler with ak that is
the handle and man, things were really going honestly pretty
well for us for the month of August, for the
first couple.

Speaker 3 (08:22):
Of weeks and to last Wednesday.

Speaker 2 (08:24):
Yeah, I go on vacation and you know, everything like
collectively goes to hell. This is over the last few days.
We are god, I mean minus three and a half
minus three point two, minus three point two, minus three
point four. And tonight, if even if we get your
br and my Cubs play, we're still going to be

(08:46):
minus two and a half. So got to write the
ship man. If we eat dip down, and I've said
this before it's been a while, but if we dip
down below plus one hundred units as a show, I
am going to I don't even know, I will be
deeply upset.

Speaker 3 (09:07):
I'm almost ready I do like a rain dance or something,
you know. I know we build the parlay out on
the show every night, but maybe we wait till day
of I don't know. With baseball, like it's just like
we are getting crushed on some of these just because
we don't have all me we don't have enough stuff.

Speaker 2 (09:23):
Because we were talking about that a little bit last night,
and the success that I had on vacation where I,
unlike you guys had the luxury of giving out plays
day of versus the night before, as we traditionally do
obviously on this show, How how have your Day of
Place been going of late? Because it's you know, you
only give out the one maybe two show official plays
the night before, but you know obviously you're still betting

(09:45):
day of How how have things been going for you personally?

Speaker 5 (09:49):
Well?

Speaker 3 (09:49):
I jumped on the Phillies today that didn't work out,
but no, I jumped on Francisco Lindor total bases that
hit at plus one fifteen. WNBA has been all over
the place. Couple of trends did hit today, New York
Liberty first quarter that was back tonight. Nice that hit
Connecticut's on second quarter that was back tonight. And hit
the Washington Mystics first half, which I've been all over

(10:10):
the past couple of times because they're they were like
nineteen and six in the first half ats first half
against the spread is what that stands for. For some
of our newer listeners, they've like, I think they're owing
three here to start the second half, so they're like
nineteen and nine I think it is now, yeah, because
they just missed that tonight and then they uh, it
actually ended up covering full game. But yeah, so some

(10:33):
of those trends worked out, some didn't. So it's I
mean it's still been up and down, up and down.

Speaker 2 (10:37):
But yeah, well should we I don't want us to
break away from from what we do, and what we
do is.

Speaker 3 (10:44):
Well it only be for like a week, week and
a half.

Speaker 2 (10:46):
No, I mean, I've granted for football, obviously there's there's
more lead time. I get that, But you know what,
we're not afraid to give an out picks. We hope
they do well, but maybe.

Speaker 3 (10:56):
Sure, we're not afraid.

Speaker 2 (10:57):
We're not not terrified. Anyway, we were like, oh look spiders, Yeah,
a little bit of it's on Tarantula. There's a maybe
we should experiment a little bit. We have, you know,
because I feel like for the sake of live listeners
or certainly podcast listeners, not just people who follow us
on the app, we need to give out plays here

(11:18):
on the show. So we're gonna keep on doing that,
but we could day of like tomorrow, for instance, we're
gonna give out plays tonight People's Parlay, the bank roll
repairs all that. Maybe tomorrow at some point we give
out a second People's Parlay with me, you and Brian.
That are all day of picks. We could put it
out at you know, five o'clock in the in the

(11:40):
afternoon where we've we've done all the research, we have
everything at our disposal, and then if you know, if
we lose, we lose obviously, but there there are no excuses.

Speaker 3 (11:48):
Sure, yeah, we can try it. There's yeah, there is
day game Baseball two by the way, so true, National
Wednesday might actually even be a little earlier. Yeah we
got one, two, three, four, Yeah, four afternoon games including
the Red Sox if that interests you at all.

Speaker 2 (12:01):
So sure, I'm just looking at I'm looking at my TV.
I don't even recognize half these Red Sox players anymore.
This is such a far cry from when I was
a kid and I could just identify everybody by face.

Speaker 3 (12:14):
Sure, well, they're hoping that in the next year or so,
all these guys that are in Worcester. I mean, I
think I can name half of Worcester's lineup now with
all the hype that they're getting for these guys.

Speaker 4 (12:22):
To grow up here.

Speaker 3 (12:24):
But yeah, the bullpen's just so bad, it's it's atrocious.
I think the Andrew Bailey thing is completely blown up
in their face with the over reliance on the breaking balls.
I mean sure, I think Jim McCaffrey and The Athletic
had an article either yesterday or sometime this week that
was just like an imposing hitting coach. And there's others
too that are just like, yeah, we're just telling our
guys to just sit and wait because these these sweepers

(12:47):
aren't sweeping essentially, and they're just sitting there and they're
getting teed off on and it's just like every single night,
Alex Korra just has to do this juggling act to
try to figure out which guy isn't going to go
out there and suck. And he's not doing a great
job of it lately either, so because all these guys
have just.

Speaker 2 (13:03):
Given a lot to work with.

Speaker 3 (13:04):
No, yeah, he's just you know, playing the hand he's
been dealt and it's just horrible. So, I mean, Nick
Pavetta tonight was awful. I mean, I think his arm's
about shot for the year. Hale's been okay, Crawford been
somewhat better, but he still falls apart in the sixth inning.
Bao has turned it around, but you know, if he's
only going once every five days as the starting pitcher does.

(13:26):
So if you're only winning, you know when he's out there,
that's not good. And then obviously Cooper Criswell tomorrow we'll
see how that goes. But yeah, the pitching is just
absolutely falling apart.

Speaker 2 (13:36):
Well, Nick Pivetta definitely let me down tonight in the
strikeout department. But we don't need to dwell on that.
We'll step aside. When we come back. We'll get into
the Philadelphia Eagles again. Much of this opening hour will
be spent not only on the NFL, but specifically on
the Eagles. Maybe some show futures a little bit later
on concerning Philadelphia as well. Brooks Kabina is going to
join us covers the team for the Athletic He'll be

(13:57):
with us when we come back. Sharon Durant snaps the
tie a solo home run as the Red Sox go
up six to five, Top eight. Durant monster night so
far four for four to three runs, scored a couple
runs driven in of course that long ball. He's also walked,
so what a time to be alive for the All Stars.

(14:18):
He celebrates with his trot around the bases and flexing
and all that stuff in the dugout. We celebrate the
return of football soon enough. Certainly, preseason games are underway,
training camps long underway, the regular season right around the corner,
with the first games in the league set for September fifth,
which at this point in time only a couple weeks away,

(14:38):
and of course the first Sunday is September eighth. Let's
talk a little bit here about a team that many,
including me, expect to bounce back and win the NFC
East after falling just behind the Cowboys last year. That is,
of course, the Philadelphia Eagles. And let's talk about them
with someone who knows this team a whole lot better

(14:58):
than us. Brooks could beIN a covers the team for
the Athletic. You can get him on Twitter at b
Kabina that is kub e Na Brooks. Welcome to the show.

Speaker 6 (15:08):
Hey, Adam, thanks for having me.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
Absolutely thanks for being here. So this team, this Eagles team,
I do find very interesting for anyone that doesn't know.
Eleven and seven last year including playoffs straight up for
the betters out there seven nine and two against the spread,
trounced by the Buccaneers thirty two to nine in the
Wildcard Round. Now, this is year four under Nick Sirianni,
with a preseason win total of ten and a half

(15:30):
and a coaching staff that outside of Sirianni is going
to look a little different. Kellen Moore has been brought
in as offensive coordinator to replace Brian Johnson. Vic Vangio
recruited to fix the defense. Before we get into some
individual players and expectations for them, the changes to the
coaching staff, what is that going to do, do you
think to this team on the field.

Speaker 6 (15:51):
Yeah, this is the most important storyline for the season
in my opinion, because in the offseason it's the most
tumultuous at Nick Sirianni's time yet. I mean, he has
been to the playoffs, he's been to a super Bowl,
but this is the first time that he's take a
significant step back in terms of overseeing the offense. He's
admitted the staleness that was part of the collapse towards

(16:13):
late last season. You know, Brian Johnson got caught in
the middle of it and was fired and by hiring
Tellen Moore. Telling Moore is was overseeing more of the
offense than you know, than usual, and he's Nick Serry
Ey has taken over a more of a CEO type
role where he's in various different meeting rooms. He's taken

(16:35):
an approach that a lot of other coaches in the
NFL so do. He was a lot more focused on
the offense, being in TV things a lot, you know,
spoke to him about how he felt like he was
always trying to fix that and it frees him now
to do other things. So the management of the offense
and the defense big fans you on the other end,

(16:55):
if you remember in twenty two he served as a
consultant during the playoffs. They wanted to bring Vick Fango
a part of that, and and you know, there there's
a whenever Johnason gannon Uh left for the Cardinals, the
whole dynamic there in terms of the timing of the
leaving and how much they knew. And then Fango took
a year and the sabbatical went to the Dolphins. And

(17:17):
now after you after having a defense with Shanda Sai,
it's Shauna Si disciple of Vic Fango, same system, same roots,
but they've got the host of it now, the creator
of it now. And you're you're you're seeing an offense
that has all of its fixtures under main long contracts
Jalen Hurts, Devontae Smith, A J. Brown, an offensive line

(17:41):
that's intact on the tackles and along the interior uh
and and then signing Saquon Barkley to the mix. This
is this is as many chess pieces as you want
as an offense. And hiring Kellen Moore who's had success
with the Cowboys in the past, and then the Charges
last year with some injuries, handling some things there. All

(18:02):
the things are in place for this offense to be
certainly a top ten, if not top five offense. On
the defensive side, lots of personnel changes. General manager Howie
Roseman admitted that one of the biggest problems last year
was there were gave up the second most passing yards.
He didn't address it up their death on the secondary,
two draft picks, their first and second round pick. Those

(18:23):
are the things that are influencing a system under Vic
Fangio that is is very keen on the secondary. We've
seen that throughout training camp. You know, there's a lot
of young guys getting some time there. So the pieces
are there more offensively than there are defensively. But it's
definitely an interesting thing. And you know, both of those

(18:44):
coaches have been entrusted by a coach has taken more
of a CEO type role, And there's got to be
confidence from all the players and the ownership that this
this team's moving forward under the structure that Sirianni is
putting in place.

Speaker 3 (18:59):
Brooks, what should we expect from Jalen Hurts this year
with Kellen Moore now running this offense? Historically Moore has
never had an offense finish lower than fourteenth when it
comes to passing yardage? Does that mean we should expect
Jalen Hurts to keep taking steps forward as a passer
when you look at how Vegas sets up this year
for him, three five and twenty five and a half

(19:20):
passing yards is his total for this season. He's been
over that in each of the past two years. Now
we get a guy who you know is calling the
shots that likes to throw the ball more. Should we
just automatically assume that Hurts is going to take that
next step passing wise?

Speaker 6 (19:36):
I don't want to overstate it, but I don't want
to understate it either. Watching him in every training camp
practice we've seen. Fourteen now obviously came up for the
joint practice against the Patriots up there in Boxborough. He
hasn't yet thrown an interception, and that is highlighting one
of the things for him in terms of ball placement,
in terms of decision making, in terms of how he's

(19:59):
connecting with two of the best receivers in the NFL,
A J. Brown and Devonte Smith for long touchdowns and practice.
Saw one again today, saw that happen in the joint
practice against the Patriots. He's he's more refined. He's his
ball placements there, his accuracy, there's decision makings all there.
I'm not trying to hyperabolize that. You know, he hasn't

(20:22):
thrown an interception yet, but all those things hit on
what Kellen Moore first said when he first got here,
when I asked him about what he wanted foremost in
his offense, which is a clean operation. If you look
back on what the Eagles struggled with on the back
end of their collapse last season, it was not only
redundancy in scheme, but it was it was discombobulated. They

(20:47):
were not putting together a clean operation that whenever the
checks were being made, they weren't being perceived. The wide
receivers were running routes on their own. Things were breaking down,
you know, the ball placement wasn't there. All of those
things contributed to an offense that rightfully petered out in

(21:09):
the playoffs, and those things are haven't yet. We haven't
seen that in a preseason game. The first team offense
hasn't been fielded yet other than that joint practice, which
you know, is something to keep an eye on whenever
they are going to trot out this new system in
Brazil for the first time. So but what we've seen
in practice so far, Yeah, Jalen Hurts. I think he

(21:31):
does take that step forward, and that's because he has
wide receivers, especially Devonte Smith in camp, who are stepping
up as well. So those things are all there for
him to have one of his best seasons. He hasn't
crossed four thousand yards. Sometimes the statistics to me don't
really matter the big things to me or he had

(21:52):
fifteen interceptions, the most of his career last year by far.
Only two other quarterbacks had more than that. I don't
foresee that being the same this year. And whenever you
have the weapons that he has on offense, it shouldn't
be And one of those things that I think plays
into Saqua into Jalen Hurts's past game is saque Barkley

(22:15):
struggled against the Blitz a lot last year. Now they
have a running back who not only can be a
hot route, but open up things downfield and draw attention
from the defense. So those things they've equipped him. They
brought in a new offensive coach who has been able
to historically handle those things and so far in practice, Yes,
I think Jalen Hurts takes a significant step forward in

(22:36):
twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2 (22:37):
Well, you brought up Saquon Barkley, let's go there. Obviously
a huge storyline that he gets signed away from the
rival Giants, and I do think it's notable that he
replaces a very productive at least last year, DeAndre Swift.
You know, he rushed for over a thousand yards, he
had six total touchdowns. Barkley honestly kind of coming off
a down year, but you could make an excuse and
say that he was playing for an anemic offense that

(23:00):
you know, defenses were able to focus on him because
he was the only real talent that that Giants team had.
So that being said, with so much talent in this
offense between Jalen Hurts, aj Brown, DeVante Smith, Dallas Goddards.
Is Barkley going to have more room to operate to
where we should expect him to, you know, bounce back
with another thousand yard season, which if he hadn't missed

(23:21):
time by the way last year he missed three games,
he still almost got to one thousand yards, so he
certainly would have cleared that with these Should this be
sort of a resurgent season for Sakeue?

Speaker 6 (23:32):
Yes, it should be because this is the best offensive
unit he's been a part of, and a lot of that.
There's a small storyline going on right now that draws
some concern. When Jason Kelsey retired, Cam Jurgens, who had
played right guard, moved over to center, and there's been
two players that have been trying to solidify that position

(23:53):
that have suffered injury minor ones throughout training camp. But
the rest that offensive line, you've got Lane Johnson, two
time All Pro on the right side, Jordan Malatta, who
is one of the highest paid left tackles in the league,
Landon Dickerson, who could argue believe he said to be
the best left card in the NFL. Those things are
going to give what I think is the main factor

(24:15):
with Saquon Barkley is that he already offers you yards
after contact. Watching that with the Giants, yards after contact
generally meant right at the line of scrimmage. What's he
going to do now that he's going to have some
space going into the second level of the defense. We've
started to see some of that in practice. He still
has all of the stop start quickness that he's had

(24:36):
before just seeing that play out. Yes, DeAndre Swift was
a very productive running back, but Saquon Barkley is a
is a generational running back and still has a lot
left in the tank from what I've seen so behind
this offensive line, in this offense, Sakwon Barkley should should
have one of the best seasons of his career. I
think this is a prime situation for him. It's why

(24:58):
he wanted to come. And I know that there was
a lot of conversation about the Hard Knocks episode where
they went into the Giants and whether the Giants were
going to max where the sick one is only to
be interested. He's addressed those things publicly and we asked
about it there. My point from that is that there's
going to be an equal, all things being equal, conversation
to pit between the Giants and the Eagles. He's going

(25:20):
to choose the Eagles. He mentioned that in an interview.
He said, this is why the offensive line. You mentioned.
The offensive line is why he wanted to come to
the situation. He's a guy who loves NFL history. He
can recite all the greats, their statistics, all that stuff.
He wants to be in that, and now he's in
a situation where he can not only add to that statistically,
but get to an echelon in the playoff level that

(25:42):
he hadn't had before.

Speaker 2 (25:44):
We have Brooks Kabina here with us covers the Eagles
for the Athletic. We'll get to some of these other
skilled players, aj Brown, Dallas Goddard, obviously noted Celtics fan
Devonte Smith, all of that when we come back. Brooks
Kabina this here from the Athletic covers the Philadelphia Eagles.
We are previewing Philly's season here in twenty twenty four.

(26:06):
Talked a lot about Jalen Hurd, Saquon Barkley, the new
coaching staff. We've got about five more minutes. Brooks want
to mix in obviously some thoughts on what this team
ceiling is and expectations within the division and beyond. But
before we get there, let's talk about a couple more
of the players here on the skill position variety, and
AJ Brown clearly top of the list. I mean, this

(26:26):
guy's coming off of effectively back to back fifteen hundred
yard seasons in his only two seasons in Philadelphia since
coming over from Tennessee. And like you said, Dan, yeah,
I mean, dude's been an animal. He's durable, he's on
the field. It's getting targeted roughly one hundred and fifty
times a year. But what does this balance look like?
Should we expect that Brown, who was propped by the

(26:47):
way for people wondering, is on the low end twelve
hundred and twenty five and a half yards. Should we
expect the workload and sort of the safety blanket of
it all to be just as consistent with Smith still
merging and Goddard a focal piece of this offense when
he's actually able to stay on the field.

Speaker 6 (27:05):
Yeah, well, you know, in this situation with A J. Brown,
you know it's it's you got the last two years
both him and Davonte Smith on the Field have both
had thousand yard seasons back to back years. There's no
right now they're trying to identify the third best wide
receiver on the team, and it's possible that that's actually

(27:26):
rookie Johnny Wilson. I bring that up to say that
the distribution of passes and targets, the share, I don't
think will be all that much different this year. Whenever
you've got to two players who who are arguably, you know,
one of the best duos in the NFL. So I
think what we've seen in training camp so far, you
know Devonte Smith, and talking to A. J. Brown, he said,

(27:49):
nobody's been able to cover DeVante Smith all camp. There
have been contests between you and him and rookie Quinnon Mitchell,
who's who's whose step up and times is the first rounder.
But yes, he's had a very good camp. Uh, A
lot of his receptions have been deep. He's stepped up
in a lot of ways in training camp. These are

(28:09):
two explosive receivers that they're going to try and target
the heck out of and I don't think that you
know that share or that demand or whatever to diminishes
one or the other. They bounced that pretty clearly. And
Nick Sirianni, who over receives the all you know, the
team and has the influence on the offense still. I mean,
he's he's talked about in the off season how and

(28:31):
is repeated, this is how AJ Brown is the best
wide receiver Philadelphia's ever had. And that's not when you
start saying things like that. That's not somebody that you're
going to try and diminish target shairs too. Obviously, it's
dependent upon what it opens up in the defensive side.
They play off each other, well, we've seen that in
the past couple of years. Last year, especially at the

(28:53):
start of the year, how both of them are serving
a couple of games, so you know A J. Brown
would go off and then it would be DeVante Smith.
That's a that's a system where you've got two guys
and why they put them under contract, why they've signed
them to extensions this.

Speaker 4 (29:09):
Year at a J.

Speaker 6 (29:10):
Brown will be under contract through twenty twenty nine, to
Devonte Smith through twenty twenty eight. They want that pair
together and that's going to fuel their passing game. So
you know they expect that from both of them. I
don't expect that to diminish just because DeVante Smith is
stepping up. I think I think those those two guys
are going to get invariably, you know, they're going to

(29:31):
be one thousand air receivers again, both of them.

Speaker 3 (29:33):
So for those out out there that are wondering, DeVante
Smith's receiving yardage prop is nine and seventy five and
a half on the low end. You can find that
at FanDuel. It's although we have to ten fifty on
some other sites. But Brooks looking, you know, at the
team as a whole here, did they do enough in
the offseason to address this pass defense which gave up
the second most yards in football through the air last year?

(29:56):
To really improve on this team? And ten and a
half's their win in total, they're the favorite to win
the division. What is the realistic expectation for the Eagles?
How does this season end?

Speaker 6 (30:07):
This is the biggest question on team right now. This
was a porous past secondary last year game with the
second most yards. They tried everything they could. They demoted
Shone to side midseason, brought in Matt Patrition. It was
still bad and there were injuries, yes, but there wasn't
much step either and in the offseason. That's why you've

(30:28):
seen that's where most of the investment has gone from.
The Eagles draft and Quinnyon Mitchell the first cornerback, taking
at number twenty two overall, and then traded up to
get Cooper Dejan in the second round, another cornerback who
has been playing nick well as well. So they you
know Darius Slay is going to be on one side
of the field, there's been a position battle on the

(30:48):
other side of the field. They also signed CJ. Gardner
Johnson to come back to the Eagles, who was part
of the twenty twenty two team. So you solidified a
bit of the back end on the safeties with Reid
Blake and who has played well in spots over the
past year. So really the big question is who fills
in that other cornerback spot if Cooper Dejen. He went

(31:10):
back to Iowa earlier in the summer and while he
was training there, injured his hamstring that kept him out
for the first three weeks of training camp. He's only
just now starting to ramp up on the field today.
He only had fourteen sixteen plays in team drills. That's
the most so far he had. I bring that up
because right now. The VIC fan just trying to find

(31:33):
his best combination in the secondary, and if all things
were fine, I think that would be Quinnion Menchell right now.
But they don't have an identified nickel and Nichol is
going to play seventy five to eighty percent of his maps.
It's an important position. There's going you know, a lot
of teams are putting guys inside. Ceedee Lamb with the

(31:53):
Dallas Cowboys last year exploited the Eagles a lot from
the slot, So it's an important position. So it's interesting
that Quinnon Mitchell is the one that's been getting most
of the looks with the first team nickel throughout training
camp and not some of the others that are on
the outside right now. Isaiah Rodgers. They signed him last
year even though he was under a one year suspension

(32:13):
for gambling. He's since returned. He's mostly been on the outside.
Last year they drafted a fourth round pick and Keey Ringo,
who was playing well towards the end of last year.
Those two are kind of jockeying for who'd be the
corner of Quenyon Mitchell is playing inside Quinnon Mitchell. He
deserves to be on the field at all times. I

(32:34):
talked to Vic Fanjo about this a couple of times
in the past couple of weeks. He throws a lot
at his players, and he stressed that cornerback and nickel
are two drastically different positions, and they're concerned and not
trying to overload a rookie to try and play one
position and then on the very next place switched to nickel.

(32:54):
There are various different reasons why that's a lot for
a rookie to handle, but so far he's proven that
he can. Is that a long term solution? No is
to you know, is there going to be a rookie
mistake in the middle of it towards the beginning of
the year.

Speaker 4 (33:08):
That's the question.

Speaker 6 (33:09):
Is he is he going to be able to have
a home position where he can stay on the outside
and help shut down people on that end with a
dedicated spot. And once he does, who is it that
replaces him there? At Nickel used to be a Vonte Maddox.
He's been in that role the last couple of years.
Last year he was on close to a seven million
dollar contract and he had a pectal injury that forced

(33:32):
him out for most of the year. They cut him
in the offseason and then signed him on a team
friendly deal. He's mostly been playing safety right now, so
that Queen and Mitchell is playing both positions also underlines
there isn't really anyone else that they trust in that
position right now, so that's not good news. And right now.
Seeing Cooper Dejean play mostly at the slot right now,

(33:53):
today was the first time he really had one versus one.
There's a slot receiver, good punt returner, you know, with
with the team, and you know, just not able to
keep up in one v one today. I mean that's
the first time he's really testing out his hamstring physically.
I talked to the passing game coordinator, Christian Parker specifically

(34:14):
about the genie. Says, all the things are there mentally
from him. He's asking graduate level questions and team meetings.
They just need to see him prove it on the
field physically. Is there enough time between now in Brazil
for him to be the team's reliable nickel. I think
that's less likely than actually likely at this time. So
that means at least for the first part of the season,

(34:35):
you've got kind of a tricky combo that is not
long term and you're going to have to adapt that
later on in the season. So there's a potential hole there.
But they've got the players in place, it's just how
long does it take to develop them and also have
them in place where you want them long term.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
Brooks Cabina does a great job, as you can tell,
covering the Eagles for the Athletic. Get him on Twitter
at b Kabina. That is k U b e Na.
Brooks really enjoyed it, man, look forward to chatting again.

Speaker 6 (35:02):
During the year, absolutely anytime.

Speaker 2 (35:05):
All right, we're gonna step aside and we come back
bank row Repairs for Wednesday.

Speaker 7 (35:09):
It's time for your bank row Repair powered by Today's Collision.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
We had a great time with Brooks Kavenas so much
so we really don't have any time for Brs right now,
so we're gonna do them a little bit later on
in the show. Make sure you hang with us here,
be it live or on the podcast. Much more coming
your way when we come back. Our number two that.

Speaker 7 (35:32):
Was your bank Row Repair powered by Today's Collision. With
locations involved in Chelsea Stoneham and Dan Very. Check them
out at Today's Collision dot com.

Speaker 1 (35:40):
The Gambler starts now here's Adam Kaufman, our.

Speaker 2 (35:46):
Number two of the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. You're on WRKO.
Welcome back Red Sox winners six ' five in Houston's.
That's big one, especially with the Roylers or the Roilers.
The Roilers, thank you tell them what I mean, I
don't even know what that's. I mean, I know between
like the Royals and the Oilers, but I don't know
how I got there. Exactly used to have the Oilers

(36:08):
in football. I wanted to like football's coming. No, that
doesn't really work there. I guess hockey's not that far away. Yeah,
well what I probably what I was going to say
is the Royals royally screwing the bank roll repair, although
the Yankees did even before them. So that's going to
be a kind of a double loss. But yours still
in good shape right now as the Giants have taken
a three to one lead and.

Speaker 3 (36:30):
Hopefully we adding to it.

Speaker 2 (36:31):
Yeah, get the split there and marginal gain with the
plus one oh three, and I mean it's going to
be a losing day, but we'll give you the official
numbers a little bit later on, which are you know,
we're just kind of tired of it, tell you who
I'm guessing based on the discord. The Betch You Wins
Discord brand new for anyone who hasn't checked it out.
I know, Dan, you were mentioning it when Danny bar

(36:51):
Lobby was on the show last week. I would encourage
people check it out because it is a free discord.
Join It is not free to be a premium and
get all the free plays and everything, but worth your
investment because it looked like a profitable day in the
discord for the entire Bet You Wins crew and anyone
detailed a member of that squad and a friend of

(37:12):
this show who we always love having on. Calvin Wetzel
joins us now from of course, the Bet You Wins Podcast,
from a slew of places, CBS Sports and Sports Line.
Her hoop stats you can get them on Twitter at
Sea Wetzell thirty one. Calvin, welcome back to the show.

Speaker 8 (37:28):
Man, Hey, thanks for having me. Guys, looking forward to
chests in WNBA.

Speaker 2 (37:34):
Absolutely, we got some games in front of us tomorrow.
First though, let's just a little retrospective into what went
down tonight our Connecticut Sun, as we always like to
say around here, eight point winners at quote fingers home.
It was actually at the TD Garden, not Mohegan. Sun.
Big deal obviously in the WNBA and certainly the city
of Boston, which you know, all due respect to the

(37:56):
Sun because I know they're a new England team. I mean, Boston,
could you a WNBA team. It's not like the sports
city can't handle it. But Sun winners tonight. The Liberty
took care of business as expected against the Wings twenty
point win. The Storm eaked one out with a six
point win against the Mystics. So if you went all
chok and put together a little parlay there, I didn't

(38:17):
wish I had. The chock took care of business tonight.
Everything go pretty much as you expected.

Speaker 8 (38:24):
Yeah, you know, I did expect well in terms of
the spread, definitely. I did expect Sun Sparks to be
a little bit higher scoring. But Sun winning by eight,
you know, ended up pulling away in the end. It
looked like they might blow it there for a little bit.
But yeah, overall, nothing too surprising in that regard.

Speaker 3 (38:41):
Calvin. I feel like since the Olympic break ended that
Unders are hitting quite a bit here to start the
second half of the season. Are you noticing that too.
And if you are, what do you think's behind that?
Is it just rust?

Speaker 6 (38:53):
Yeah?

Speaker 8 (38:54):
I think there's definitely some of that. I mean, especially
you saw the very first stay back from the Olympics.
You know, I was actually very wrong. I thought a
lot of the Olympians would be tired and only having
a couple of days of rest coming back from Paris
and jet lag and you know, having played and things
like that, and some of the non Olympians would be fresh.
It looked the exact opposite. Like you said, Russ. A

(39:14):
lot of the Olympians played really well. Brittany Grinder went
off that first day back, Brianna Stewart went off. John
Quolt Jones looked rusty. So I think there was a
lot of RUSS. And we're about a week in now.
Some team's still kind of shaking it off, and that's
what you're seeing, you know, leading to some of these.

Speaker 2 (39:29):
Unders anything that we can kind of take advantage of.
With that in mind, as we look ahead to the
two games tomorrow, we've got Phoenix in Atlanta and Minnesota
and Vegas, both of these tight spreads with the you know,
the Aces are favored by five and a half. Most
of the money has gone in their direction. It's actually
kind of a pick them with respect to the Mercury

(39:49):
and Dream in terms of where people are betting, I
guess more so on the money line. People are comfortably
getting on the money line about a seventy thirty split
as I look at it right here. But in terms
of covering the two point points, that's more in the
fifty to fifty department.

Speaker 8 (40:04):
Yeah, you know, the Dream have looked really good in
a small sample since the Olympic break. Somehow, they had
not been all healthy, even just Jordan Canada and Ryan
Howard together for a single game this whole year before
the Olympics, two of their best players, obviously Ryan Howard,
their top draft picks a couple of years ago, and
then Jordan Canada, who they brought in over the offseason.
And as soon as one got healthy, the other one

(40:26):
got hurt, and that happened a couple of times. And
they've both been healthy finally playing together in the last
week or so, and they've looked really good. And so
I can see why that spreads so tight. Even though
obviously Phoenix has been the better team all season, they
should still be without Beck Allen, who missed the whole
Olympics and hasn't played since.

Speaker 4 (40:44):
So yeah, I definitely.

Speaker 8 (40:45):
Look towards the Dream in that one if you want
to get you know, really spicy. If there's a couple
of books out there that have dreamed to make the playoffs,
I've seen around plus three hundred right now plus two fifty.
I like that a lot, closing the gap on the
Sky for that eight seed. The Sky vibes are not
as good as they were earlier in the season, and

(41:07):
the Dream vibes are really looking good right now. So
it's only one and a half games right now.

Speaker 6 (41:12):
The Dream are going to.

Speaker 8 (41:12):
Host the Sky last weekend of the season, and you
might be sitting on Dream moneyline for that game. If
you end up taking Dream to make the playoffs, now
cook them down the winner of that game. So I
like it a lot. Go grab the Dream.

Speaker 3 (41:25):
This Minnesota and Vegas line really surprised me, Calvin. It
opened a two and a half. It's moved to Vegas
minus five and a half here across the board. I'm
just wondering, is this a little bit of overreaction from
the books after the Aces lost to the Liberty on Saturday.

Speaker 8 (41:43):
It might be you know, this one's really tough for me.
I think this is probably a stay away for me
on the spread. I do lean Aces just in terms of,
you know, that's what my gut's telling me. But the
numbers are kind of pointing towards the Links. Faces, even
since Chelsea Gray has been back, have not been nearly
as impressive and dominant as they have been in the
last couple of years.

Speaker 4 (42:02):
We still haven't seen kind of the true point.

Speaker 8 (42:04):
God, who can go get a bucket at any point
drop twenty on you. We might see that come to
the playoffs. Hopefully she's fully back to one hundred percent.
But the Links have obviously been one of the stories
of the season, and they just went out and added
Maisha heinz Allen. A lot of these teams bolstering their
roster for the stretch run here, you know, Connecticut Sun
added Marina Maybury a few weeks ago. Now the Links

(42:26):
adding someone as well. So the numbers kind of point
to the Links here, especially when you just for that.
But I got to think that the Aces are, you know,
they know it's go time now, they know it's crunch
time coming down the stretch of the season, and they're
not going to get the one seed like they had before.
They're going to have to go on the road in
the playoffs, but they certainly want to at a minimum
avoid that four seed, avoid the four to five first

(42:46):
round matchup, avoid the one versus four semi final matchup,
potentially against New York. So yeah, it's probably a stay
away from me. I could see it going either way.

Speaker 2 (42:56):
Props are trickling out for tomorrow's two games, and I'll
tell you what I'm gonna I'm gonna jump right into
your discord man. Danny has posted a play that I
know from texting with you, and Danny and Jim Turvy
also part of that group that you know when when
one of you is on something, generally all of you is.
And Danny has posted Alicia Gray under five and a

(43:17):
half rebounds for Atlanta against Phoenix as a two unit play.
Likes it that much, available on DraftKings everywhere else it's
down to four and a half rebounds, which you can
still get at plus money. I'm looking at plus one
oh five over on Caesars minus money elsewhere. You know,
take us through your belief, your confidence in this play

(43:39):
or any other props to jump out as you for tomorrow.

Speaker 8 (43:42):
Yeah, I really like this play a lot. I still
like it at four and a half. We actually in
the Discord cast for under three and a half at
plus money in their last game.

Speaker 4 (43:52):
So I'm not really sure.

Speaker 8 (43:53):
What the books we're looking at moving that lineup from.

Speaker 5 (43:56):
Three and a half to five and a half.

Speaker 8 (43:57):
Obviously Juice under a lot, but even four and a half,
you don't see him move it up like that very often.
And even going back before the break, she hasn't had
over three rebounds in her last four games now, the
last two games since the break, in two games before
the break, and so you're giving us five and a half.
And again we mentioned Ryan Howard and Jordan cana hadn't

(44:17):
played together. Ryan Howard missed most of those games before
the break, but she's back now. Jordan Canada's solid rebounding
guard as well. That's a lot of backcourt rebounds that
are going to other places now that Alisha Gray was
sort of vacuuming up herself when the dream we're a
little bit more banged up, but with a fully healthy
backcourd and sort of the one two three, they're wings solidified,

(44:39):
She's not getting as many rebounds now, so I love
that under again, like Danny said in the discord, I
would definitely still go grab it at four and a
half as well. I see that right now as we speak.
I'm looking at Fandle has it at minus one zero six,
so it's still juiced a little bit over minus one
twenty five and over definitely should be the other way around,
So go grab that under while it's still.

Speaker 4 (44:57):
At four and a half.

Speaker 3 (44:58):
Calvin. The first prop that's jumping out to me for tomorrow,
Asia Wilson over twenty six and a half points. It's
at minus one all five on Fandle. I think that's
the only book with this lineup right now. But she
has just been I mean amazing. I think is under
selling it for the way she's been playing, and she's
gone over this in both games against Minnesota so far
this season.

Speaker 8 (45:19):
Yeah, that's a good look based on the matchup. We
cashed that the other day as well, and so you
might as well run it back. Obviously, she's looking to
break the scoring record in the league for all time
points per game, and point six and a half is
such a high line, but for her, I agree with you,
I don't think's high enough when you look at this
Links team. You mentioned that she's gone over twice. This

(45:40):
Links team has been excellent defensively, but the one weakness
is defensive rebounding until you guys think Age is going
to get some offensive rebounds and putbacks. They're a little
bit undersized in the front court with the Fiasta Collier
and and Atlanta Smith and the Feasta is a very
good rebounder at the fourth position, but they don't quite
have a front court that's fully equipped to handle someone

(46:00):
like Asian Wilson. Not that many teams do, but I
think the Links in particular are a pretty good matchup
for her. Their perimeter defense is a lot better. But
in terms of that interior, I think agents set up
to eat in this one.

Speaker 4 (46:12):
So I'll be riding that one with.

Speaker 2 (46:13):
You before we let you go. And again it's early,
the props are just coming out. But do you have
a favorite play for tomorrow? If you're not part of
our show part late tonight, But if you were, what
would you be looking at right now?

Speaker 6 (46:26):
Yeah?

Speaker 8 (46:26):
You know, I haven't looked through all of them yet,
but you know I love to do some first basket
and so I was looking at that a little bit.
I got a first basket that I did post in
the discord the other day if you saw it, but
it didn't hit, but I still got to run it back.
Sophie cunning In plus five fifty on the Mercury. You know,
Britney Grinder is always easily the favorite to get the
first team basket on the Mercury, and rightfully so.

Speaker 4 (46:49):
They do go to her a lot.

Speaker 8 (46:50):
But you remember last year she was basically getting fifty
fifty percent of their looks and of their first baskets.
They would run that little play on the right block
to her every time. New coach Nate Tibbots this year,
he still goes to her pretty early and pretty often,
but not as much as they used to. And Natasha
Cloud basically never gets the first basket. So you're really

(47:11):
talking about the other three. Whether it's Beck Allen or
Sophie Cunningham who's in there for Beck who's hurt, or
Diana Trossi or Kalia Copper, those three often have a
lot of value on first team basket for the Mercury
This year, just because it's a little bit more evenly
distributed between BG and in between the rest and in
this case Sophie's easily the longest odds of those three

(47:33):
at plus five fifty. I think that should be more
like plus four hundred, so I like her to get
the first team Baskets. It's for a little sprinkle there.

Speaker 2 (47:42):
Calvin Wetzel does a great job over there at CBS
Sports and of course on the Bitch He Wins podcast.
Make sure you check that out. Check out the new
discord subscribe. These guys are giving you winning plays on
a daily basis in the WNBA, and Calvin was ripping
it up during the Olympics. My god, find them on Twitter.
See what's thirty one? Calvin, thanks so much, man, we'll
talk again soon.

Speaker 8 (48:03):
Hey, thanks for having me.

Speaker 2 (48:04):
Guys. Absolutely all right. We're gonna step aside, get back
to baseball, really get into baseball. We haven't done much
other than just sort of mentioning the Red Sox and passing.
We're going to have Steve Merrilan from Wager talk when
we return. Great stuff out of Calvin wets they'll talk
in WNBA looking ahead to the couple of games that

(48:25):
we have in front of us tomorrow. Hopefully you were
paying attention giving you out some plays. I already bet
that Alicia Gray under four and a half rebounds of
plus money on Caesar's, so I'm locked in.

Speaker 3 (48:34):
There five and a half.

Speaker 2 (48:36):
Yeah, I didn't have DraftKings at my disposal, Otherwise I
wouldn't have hesitated to jump in on the juice, So
I'm right there with you. It was what right around
minus one sixty.

Speaker 3 (48:46):
One six six yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2 (48:48):
Yeah, I honestly just to a lot of people would
rather not lay the juice get the plus money opportunity.
I totally get it. I am someone that is a
little bit more conservative. I would have happily, you know,
gone for the juice line for the extra rebound.

Speaker 3 (49:04):
But especially with a stantlet bat too. Yeah, it's not
like points. It's a little bit different.

Speaker 2 (49:09):
But yeah, not a big number obviously, but we are well,
we'll hope for the best, We'll hope the trends are
our friends and all of that good stuff. We're going
to give you a people's parlay here during this hour.
We still need to give you bank or repairs obviously,
and any Eagles futures that we are interested in as well,
So all of that stuff will come in the next

(49:31):
half hours. So we're going to dive into some baseball
and do so with our friend Steve Merrill coming up
in just a matter of moments as well, so looking
forward to that. Also again, the Red Sox for anyone
who missed it, winners tonight six ' five in Houston
and the Royals lost. And so what all of that
means at this moment is Boston is sitting three and

(49:52):
a half games behind the Royals for the third and
final wild card spot in the American League.

Speaker 3 (49:58):
So three in the lost.

Speaker 2 (50:00):
Yeah, it's but hey, Jaron Duran, keep doing more of
that each and every day and they'll they'll have a chance, obviously,
and a nice, really nice encouraging performance out of the
bullpen tonight after Nickovetta level of people down, it is
about time. All right, let's get to our next guest,
who shockingly, I don't think my spreadsheet is wrong, Dan,

(50:22):
but I'll let you tell me. I have spoken with
this gentleman, I don't know how many times doing shows
on Sports Grid that I just assumed he had been
with us at some point in time over here on
this show. But I looked, and not only have we
not had Steve Merrill on from Wager Talk yet to
talk baseball or football, or anything else. I don't think
we've ever had a person named Steve on this show
of the hundreds of guests that we have had in

(50:44):
our year. Really so yeah, wow, I know right, that's
equally as surprising. So let's get into it. Steve Merrill
on Twitter that is two RS, one L at Steve Merrill, Steve,
welcome to the show, Bob. How are you do well?

Speaker 5 (50:58):
Adam as going to say, I guarantee you have it'
had a mayor with two r's and one L on
the show.

Speaker 4 (51:01):
I'm the only one I've ever found.

Speaker 2 (51:03):
Yeah, I really don't think we've even had a Steve,
not a Steve with a Steve with a pH. Yeah,
apparently you are something of a unicorn in the betting space.
But we're happy to have you here obviously and talking baseball.
And we'll look ahead to tomorrow and it's hump Day
that means afternoon games, which is always a good thing.
Get the slate started nice and early. But I do
want your thoughts on the Red Sox. Not so much

(51:25):
there win in Houston tonight, but just you're feeling about
this team, and we'll get to tomorrow's game as well,
but overall, you know this team is seven games over
five hundred, they are still very much in the mix
for a playoff spot three and a half. It can
feel daunting, but we know they're capable of making a run.
We've seen it more than once. What do you think
of this team at this moment?

Speaker 4 (51:48):
Well, very difficult division.

Speaker 5 (51:49):
Obviously, they're behind probably the two best teams in the
American League, so they're always up against it for that reason.
But they are just four behind the wildcard spot. As
you mentioned. One number that jumps out to you, actually
two things jumped.

Speaker 4 (51:59):
Out to me.

Speaker 5 (52:00):
Losing record at home surprising, but there are ten games
up on the road, which I guess is a positive.
But my concern would be if you look at the
record against winning teams this year, they're thirty and forty two,
still eveno with the win tonight, thirty and forty two.
And you can trust that to the Yankees who are
fifteen games above five hundred, the Oriols who are now
sixteen games above five hundred against winning teams this year,

(52:22):
and that's why the Red Sox are on the outside
looking in. I brought this up actually earlier to not
I did a hit on sports Grade sports Grade with
Scott Retzel and Dave Sherpan and we were talking about
the Twins and I mentioned how the Twins are just
twenty nine and thirty eight against winning teams, and they
pointed out, I think it's on a three and fourteen
run of the road against winning teams. They're at San
Diego as we speak right now. But the Royals are

(52:43):
the really interesting team because they have the second best
run differential in the American League. In fact, they have
an eighteen run better net run differential than the Oriols.
But the Royals are just twenty seven and thirty five
against winning teams. So I think when you really start
looking at that record against quality opponents, you start to
kind of see the haves and the have nots. And
that's why I still think it's the Yankees and Oils
and everybody else is trying to catch them.

Speaker 3 (53:04):
So Steve, as we look ahead to Wednesday, we got
a day game here between the Socks and the Astros.
Two ten, first pitch. It's also the rubber game of
this matchup here. Justin Verlander expected to make his first
starting over two months against Cooper Criswell for the Socks.
You can get Boston at plus one thirty the best
price here if you think they can jump on Verlander,
who wasn't exactly pitching great when we last saw him.

Speaker 4 (53:28):
Yeah, and we see that with Garrett Cole this year
at the Yankees.

Speaker 5 (53:31):
You know, Cole has been very inconsistent since coming back
from injury, and Verlander, you know what, is he over
forty now? I believe so forty one the situation, Yeah,
I really need to see something for him before I'm
gonna trust them. These getaway games, is Adam kind of
hinted to at the Open, is that you know they
are a little dicey. I always talk about the Sunday
afternoon games are the most random games of the week. Well,
I think these Wednesday and Thursday getaway games are kind

(53:54):
of random as well. The total is set at eight
and a half, and it looks like some of the
Sharper books are leading towards the over already. We might
see that key number of nine by tomorrow before this
game starts, and I think a lot of that has
to do with the uncertainty of both starters.

Speaker 2 (54:08):
Speaking of uncertainty, I was all geared up to bet
on the the Pirates tomorrow. Our buddy, you know, Sharrapans Pirates,
But that was when I thought we were going to
see Paul Skeens and not the case looking like Domingo
Herman is going to start opposite Andrew Heeney, which is
why we don't have any lines out on this game
right now. Does it alter your thinking with this game?

(54:30):
Were you even planning to bet this game when it
was Skeens?

Speaker 5 (54:34):
Well, the Pirates as of a week ago had lost
you know, ten in a row, and they had Schemes
on the mound last Friday night. They'd actually lost a
couple of games during that span with him. This is
a team that's really struggled here over the past few
past few weeks, basically going with a relief pitcher now
in her mind, this is a lot of uncertainty here.
I also think we got a one to bigger than
just shut you know, Schemes down for the season. You know,

(54:56):
this is the guy that had two no hitters and
they've pulled him in the sixth and seventh inning this year.
If they're out of playoff contention, which they basically are,
I just don't understand why they would pitch him anymore.
They're eight games out of the wild card. They're probably
not going to catch anybody, and he is the real deal.
So the fact they kind of maybe pushed him back
one day here, you got to wonder if maybe we're

(55:16):
going to start to see the end of s games
here in the next start or two. As far as
this game itself, no one yet. As you mentioned, it's
a bullpen game. It looks like he's only pitched six
innings all season, three relief appearances, six innings all season,
So not a lot to work with there. But I
will say the post and hitters aren't familiar with them,
especially being an interleague game at Texas, so that might

(55:37):
give Pittsburgh a little something to work with.

Speaker 3 (55:39):
Steve, I keep waiting for the Atlanta Braves to just
kind of go away. The injuries just piling up. Man
now Austin Riley out for probably the rest of the
regular season. They get the Phillies again tomorrow, who they
surprisingly they beat Zach Wheeler tonight. Now another great pitching
matchup tomorrow, Max Freed against Aaron Nola. You can get
the Phills at even money Atlanta minus one twenty. Here

(56:00):
there's a minus one eighteen actually a one book but.

Speaker 2 (56:02):
How are the Braves favored in this game?

Speaker 3 (56:05):
I don't know. I mean, because the Phillies are just
a total wild card at the moment.

Speaker 2 (56:08):
I guess. But Nola's better than Freed.

Speaker 3 (56:10):
You would think. But Steve, what do you think of
this one?

Speaker 5 (56:13):
Now? I kind of agree with the logic there. I mean,
you look at tonight's game. Philly opened overnight yesterday a
dollar twenty five favorite with Wheeler over Lopez, and it
closed as high as minus won sixty to night in
some spots, and they lost three to one, as you said,
But now the line tomorrow is much cheaper, and Nola's
as good as anybody, just as good as Wheelers. So
I think the Phillies as a dog, are tempting here

(56:35):
on this overnight line. And Atlanta just offensively hasn't been
right this year. We keep waiting from the turn things on,
you know, the celier trade. Like three years ago when
they won the World Series without Acunya. I thought maybe
that would be the catalyst, but it doesn't appear to be.

Speaker 2 (56:48):
We have Steve Meryll hanging out here with us from
Wager Talk, and Steve, here's what we're gonna do, because
you haven't been with us. Before we're gonna take a break,
we're gonna come back. We're gonna talk through some more
of these games that are going on tomorrow. We're all
also going to have you be part of our People's Parlay,
our show parlay where you will give us your absolute
favorite play as it exists currently anyway on the board

(57:09):
for tomorrow. And just to let you know, because I
know you're not purely a baseball person, it doesn't have
to be baseball if there's something else that you love elsewhere.
By all means, we just want a winner. So that
in mind, I'll let you take the commercial break to
you know, rack your brain maybe off the top of
your head. You already got one. We're gonna come on
back here on the Gambler with Adam Kaufman. More baseball
with Steve Merrill. We have Steve Merrill here with us

(57:33):
from Wager Talk breaking down Wednesday's MLB slate. We'll give
you a People's Parlay coming up in just a little
bit as well. Still some bankroll repairs and futures concerning
the Philadelphia Eagles on the way. Also Steve my official
show play for today that I gave out last night,
which heavily juiced. But hey, you know, I don't care

(57:54):
the bet hit that was the Cubs on the money line,
it was right around minus one sixty. It was a
little inside of minus one sixty. But we're looking at
a similar line tomorrow with tie on on the mound
against Mayeta, who has been a dumpster fire this year.
Is this another situation where we back the Cubs.

Speaker 5 (58:12):
Yeah, I think the Cubs are made a little bit
of an underrated team right now. I'm not sure they're
going to sneak into the playoffs. They're currently second in a division,
but they have to do about the wildcard. They're eleven
and a half behind Milwaukee, five and a half out
of that wildcard spot. But if you look at them,
they're two games below five hundred of the season, but
they have a positive net run differential, which means they
actually should be about two games above five hundred.

Speaker 4 (58:32):
This is a team.

Speaker 5 (58:32):
Also, it's thirty five and forty against winning teams, which
a lot better than some of those other teams we
talked about in the American League earlier. So I do
think there's still some upside with the Cubs here down
the stretch.

Speaker 3 (58:42):
Steve one Spot that is jumping out to me tomorrow
as the Padres at home, It's it's another afternoon game. Actually,
it's like a late afternoon three forty out on the
West Coast, but minus one twenty. Best I'm seeing for
San Diego here. Woods Richardson is on the mound for Minnesota.
He has not been very good on the road this year.
That's kind of why I'm drawn to this one. But
wondering what you're thinking.

Speaker 5 (59:02):
Yeah, so I had a strong play last night on
Monday from my clients at wager talk dot com. Best
bet on the Padres. Fourth straight perfect night in baseball.
I stayed off the game tonight against Minnesota. It's three
to three of the top the eighth, but the Twins
look like they might pull ahead. So if Minnesota does
end up getting this one tonight, I think it probably
is a good bounce back spot for San Diego tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
Just kind of looking at what we have in front
of us, and we'll get to the people's parlay in
a minute. This I don't think we've talked about this,
this Orioles Mets game to start off the day tomorrow,
first of all, and maybe just my CBS Sports app
that I'm looking at is wrong or some of the
articles are outdated that I was reading. Do we know
is it Irvin or e Flyn that are going to
start for Baltimore tomorrow.

Speaker 3 (59:42):
I'm still seeing Eflyn, but I thought I saw some
news about him earlier tonight.

Speaker 2 (59:46):
Because I'm seeing Irvin on the CBS app. But articles
that I've read say Eflyn. This does impact how I
feel about this game, because if it's Eflyn, I would say, sure,
back the Orioles. But if it is Irvin, I'm looking
at the Mets being minus one thirty favorites with Manaiah
on the mound, and I don't know why I.

Speaker 3 (01:00:01):
Would Eflyn was placed on the dal today.

Speaker 2 (01:00:05):
Okay, so it's Irvin, So that in mind, I think
the Mets are the team, do you.

Speaker 4 (01:00:11):
Yeah? I'm seeing Irvin as well. In some locations.

Speaker 5 (01:00:14):
The wager Talk Live odd screen still has undecided, but
we are seeing four or five sports books that have
odds up. But some of the numbers are looking a
little stale. Minus a dollar fifteen earlier. Now the circa
in Las Vegas right now just moved to a dollar
twenty eight, So I think this line is going to
climb higher when it's becomes publicly announced that it's irving
for Baltimore, which means, you know, Mania does look like
he's probably the right side here.

Speaker 3 (01:00:35):
So the Giants in the White Sox wrap up Bear
series tomorrow. This is another afternoon game they're playing right now.
I think San Francisco. Yeah, they're up three to one
right now. Garrett Crochet is on the mound tomorrow. Steve,
but he has just not been that great since the
All Star Break. I mean, he's not going long in
games at all. He hasn't gone more than four innings
I believe since the All Star Break too. Would you go, Giants,

(01:00:57):
run line here or just stay away because of the
heavy Maybe live bet at some point in this game
if it's close, and then once Crochet's out, you can
take San Francisco to pull ahead against that bullpen.

Speaker 4 (01:01:08):
Yeah, I definitely want to talk about Crochet here.

Speaker 5 (01:01:10):
For a moment, I was adamant that he was not
somebody team should go after at the trade deadline. This
is a guy that threw more innings midway through the
season he'd ever thrown his major league career over three
years combined. Because let's keep in mind, he was a
reliever until this season, had Tommy John surgery two years ago.
Last year he threw twelve innings in the majors and
twelve innings of the minors twenty four innings total, and

(01:01:32):
missed the.

Speaker 4 (01:01:32):
Year before that.

Speaker 5 (01:01:33):
He's done one hundred and twenty four innings now, so
I was very certain that he was going to hit
a wall, as he has. In fact, once he got
over his career innings limit of about eighty some innings
back in mid July, his era that month was one
point nine to one. In August a four point nine,
and so far in three starts this month a seven
point eight era.

Speaker 4 (01:01:54):
Nobody traded for him.

Speaker 5 (01:01:55):
The Dodgers and Oriels are both close, but that he
had a clause that he would have to get an extension,
a long term extent that scared the Dodgers away. I
don't think Crochet is the real deal, the exact opposite
of Paul Schemes we talked about earlier, and the White
Sox are obviously a pure faith. They've won twenty three
and a half percent of their games this season. That
is a win percentage of about thirty eight and one

(01:02:16):
to twenty three thirty eight and a half and one
twenty three and a half. Now bring that up, because
the major League record for most losses since nineteen oh
one the modern era was the forty and one to
twenty New York Mets back in nineteen sixty two. The
White Sox are on a pace right now to lose
over one hundred and twenty three games. That's how bad
this team is. And I think crochetes a fade as well,
so it'd be giants for pass for me in this one.

Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
All right, Steve, let's get to the People's parlay. I
mentioned how this works before. We will each offer a
favorite play for tomorrow, and listen, I want to ask
you to text me your receipt or anything like that,
but by show law, you are required to ride with
us and place this bet and hopefully we can catch
the People's part lay tomorrow. You, being the guest, start
us off. What is that favorite play?

Speaker 4 (01:03:00):
We're gonna sick to the game we just talked about.

Speaker 5 (01:03:01):
Once again, I think the White Sox are as bad
as any team's been in recent history, and I think
Croche is vastly overrated after hitting his innings limited about
a month ago. But as we said, we're not gonna
lay two twenty two to thirty with the Giants. So yes,
the best way to play this is to get them
down to minus one and a half even money. We're
getting a mismatch here. No, by the way, I didn't
mention Logan Webb is on the mound for the Giants.
He is trending the exact opposite direction of Crche. In fact,

(01:03:25):
he's got a three point two ERA for the season,
but he's in an even better current form this month,
with a point nine ERA in his three starts so
far in the month of August.

Speaker 4 (01:03:35):
I like the Giants.

Speaker 5 (01:03:36):
Yeah, we're gonna get it down to even money by
playing the minus one and a half run line.

Speaker 2 (01:03:40):
All right, Dan, what do you have?

Speaker 4 (01:03:41):
All Right?

Speaker 3 (01:03:41):
So we kind of talked about this earlier in the
hour with Calvin Wetzel. I'm gonna go over twenty six
and a half points for Asia Wilson tomorrow. Guys. She
has just been insane this year. She's averaging over twenty
seven points on the season. She's gone over this number
in both games, well over in each game against Minnesota
so far too, and as Calvin mentioned, she's gunning for

(01:04:01):
the WNBA single season scoring record too, so keep piling
on those points minus one oh five best I'm seeing
on FanDuel.

Speaker 2 (01:04:09):
Beautiful and look, I think I tipped my hand before.
So originally I was going to go Philly's money line
because I do really like this spot against Atlanta and Dan.
If we do what we said earlier and give out
a day of people's parlay tomorrow me you, Brian, then
I might quite possibly go there as another play. But

(01:04:30):
this Orioles change with it being Irvin instead of Efflyn
now and Maniah on the mound the way he has
been pitching for New York. I'm in agreement with Steve.
I think this line is going to climb. I mean
it was minus one fifteen not that long ago. Already
we are seeing the movement here with the current odds.
Just to let people know, looking at Matt's best case

(01:04:52):
we've got. Yeah, is there still a minus one fifteen
on DraftKings. I'm not even sure that's current. I think
you have a minus one twenty five on Caesars available
to you. And how about ESPN Action app is showing
me minus one fifteen for ESPN as well. I don't
know if that's there, But either way, this line is
going to climb. I like the Mets money line. Tomorrow

(01:05:12):
starts off the day hopefully with a win, but we
are going to go Mets money line. So couple that
again Mets money line. Asia Wilson over on points Giants
run line. Best we have, as Brian has been crunching
the numbers, is plus five seventy three on Caesar. Steve,
that is our people's parlay for tomorrow.

Speaker 4 (01:05:31):
Best of luck to the people, may they win.

Speaker 2 (01:05:34):
And may we all My friend Steve Merrill, he is
on Twitter at Steve Merrill. That is m E R R.
I L always enjoy chatting with Steve and got to
work you into the rotation a little bit more as
we get closer to football, especially because I know when
you are not out at you know, like William and
Mary games, you're you're certainly talking NFL. So we're gonna

(01:05:54):
get you on here and looking forward to that. It'll
be fun.

Speaker 5 (01:05:58):
Yeah, I mean we've got college football starting this Saturday,
then a huge slate start next Thursday night, so only
about a week away.

Speaker 2 (01:06:04):
Amen, man, it's time, all right, thanks very much to Steve.
We're gonna step aside and we come back bank roll
repairs because we didn't do that last hour, and also
Eagles futures. Wow, it's time to put this show to bed.

Speaker 6 (01:06:18):
With Mike Pillow.

Speaker 2 (01:06:21):
All right, we got a few minutes here and a
lot to get through. Obviously, want to thank all of
our guests, most recently Steve Merrill earlier, Calvin Wetzel and
of course talking Eagles with us at Brooks Coulbina from
the Athletic. We'll give you some Philadelphia Eagles futures at
least one. Anyway, I'm still sort of contemplating a little bit,
a little inundated. We're loading everything into the app. If

(01:06:42):
you missed anything our plays, we'll all be available to
you there. The Gambler with Ak is the handle on
the Action app and of course the podcast. Check out
the podcast for a complete review of the show with
the Gambler with Adam Kaufman wherever you get your podcast.
But we didn't have a time at the end of
the first hour to give you bankroll repairs because because
we're having so much fun with Brooks and so Dan

(01:07:03):
take it away. What do you have?

Speaker 3 (01:07:04):
All right? So I didn't know that we were going
to be doing the run line on the Giants too,
So we're gonna be We're gonna be doubly invested in
the Giants tomorrow, guys. So we're gonna go San Francisco
on the money line, and we're gonna pair that with
Jackie Young of the aces to have at least four
assists in this game. She's averaging five plus this year.
She's also over in seven of the last ten games.
So you put those two legs together plus one oh

(01:07:25):
seven on FanDuel.

Speaker 2 (01:07:27):
All right, And what I am going to do here
is there are two There are actually a few baseball
legs of heavy favorites that I really like, and I'm choosing,
and I'm hoping that I'm choosing the right combo ultimately.
But gonna go back to the Cubs, who, as we know,
I'm not afraid of the just lay in the minus
one sixty. I did it as a straight play for today,

(01:07:48):
But I'm gonna pair that up in a parlay for
tomorrow with another team that has a very similar line,
and that is the Texas Rangers. I thought about going
back to the Yankees. They pissed me off with their
loss tonight, even though I believe they're gonna win with
Cortes on the mound. I'm going Cubs at home with
tie on against you know, a no name for the Tigers,
and we talked about how bad the Pirates are. I'm

(01:08:09):
going to try and attack that situation with no schemes
against Herman with Heene on the mound for the Rangers.
So Cubs Rangers money line parlay that is available to
you over on fan Duel best ice plus one sixty one.
That's a going for it for a while right.

Speaker 3 (01:08:28):
There, all right, really getting after it, trying to get
trying to get some and then some.

Speaker 2 (01:08:34):
I know, it's a even if I wanted to get
cute and do like run lines for both of them,
like plus one and a half for each, like it's
not available to me. I can't even do it. So
we're just gonna go for it. We're going for the
We're gonna try and take it cool. Yeah, all right,
let's get to some Eagles futures. What do you have?

Speaker 3 (01:08:49):
All right? So, as Brooks was kind of talking and
he kept kind of like sneaking it in there that
DeVante Smith's having a really nice off preseason in training camp.
I don't know if you guys caught that he only
said it like four times, but I was pretty big
on Devonte too or DeVonta. Excuse me if I got
that wrong. But going into this season, he's gone over
a thousand yards in each of his last two years.

(01:09:10):
Finished his rookie year three years ago with about nine
to twelve. So this guy's just been so consistent in
the NFL. There's a nine to seventy five and a
half on FanDuel there, and I like this. We're gonna
go over nine seventy five and a half for Smith
minus one twelve. That's my Eagles future.

Speaker 2 (01:09:25):
Nice. There are a lot of things that I do
like with this Eagles team, obviously offensively, I mean, really
the bet I wanted to give you, and I guess
I still could, it's not laying a whole lot where
I first was going to go. And I was more
excited when I thought it was still plus money, but
with what has been going on with Dallas, it's not.

(01:09:46):
Is the Eagles to win the division, which is minus
one twenty on MGM that is the best price. So
we've lost a lot of value obviously in that number,
because I've believed for weeks that Philadelphia was going to
win this division. I should have jumped on it when
there was movement, you know, before the movement. But we,
you know, obviously, are saving our show futures for when
we discuss each and every team. And so it sort

(01:10:06):
of takes me to Jalen Hurts and you know, the
as long as he stays on the field, I hesitate
to say healthy because he really wasn't healthy all that
much last year, but he was on the field. He
didn't miss games. As long as he's on the field, Dan,
you look at his passing yards PROP, his passing touchdowns PROP,
his rushing yards PROP is rushing touchdowns prop. All of
these are you know, he has cleared all four of

(01:10:29):
those categories, all of those numbers each of the last
two years.

Speaker 3 (01:10:34):
I like the passing one the most, but I agree.

Speaker 2 (01:10:37):
So the one I really like actually is the rushing
touchdowns Fifteen last year, thirteen the year before that, ten
in his second year of the league. I'm let me
workshop this with you a little bit. We're asking for ten.
The line is nine and a half. I know saquans
there now, but it's not like they're going to be
handing the ball off to gain well with regularity. So

(01:10:59):
how do you feel about it in the.

Speaker 3 (01:11:00):
Different o C we have different oc too. I don't
know if they're gonna try to limit him as a
runner a little more, trying to keep him a little healthy.
I mean, so many push pushes and all that could
have you know, could have added up there. But I mean,
it wouldn't surprise me if he gets the double digits either.

Speaker 2 (01:11:15):
All Right, you know what I'm gonna. I'm gonna take
a play out of Dan's book. I'm gonna think about it,
and I'm gonna decide tomorrow. There you go, I'm gonna,
I'm gonna, I'm gonna stew on this one tomorrow. Giants
Commanders More NFC East. Thanks to our guest Brian Dan
and Madam so You for the best night's sleep you've
ever had.

Speaker 7 (01:11:33):
Go to mic pillow dot com and use the code gambler.

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