The NFL Preseason Betting Trend You Must Follow, Big 12 Football Preview

August 10, 2023: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guests John McKechnie (@johns_tailgate) from RotoWire and OddsShopper's Eytan Shander (@shandershow). The Red Sox took care of business Thursday, but the Patriots fell short in their exhibition opener to the Texans. Shander identifies a successful NFL preseason gambling trend worth following with a packed weekend schedule ahead. Plus, on this Back to School Thursday, McKechnie rejoins the guys for a betting preview of football's Big 12 Conference, where the true favorite may not be so obvious.

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Now wr KO presents Boston's only nightleast sports betting show, The Gambler,
with Adam Kaufman covering spreads, props, parlays and more. The Gambler starts
now Here's Adam Kaufman. Well,I guess you could say in terms of

(00:20):
Boston sports, everything went according toscript tonight, at least based on what
we needed right. And I meanwe as in the fans of these respective
teams. I don't even mean froma betting perspective. The Red Sox took
care of the Royals and buy multipleruns at the end. If you took
them on the red line, theyrent the red line, the red line,
I don't think. I don't thinkwe put them on the subway to
go back to the hotel. TheRed Sox did what they had to do.

(00:44):
Dan Watkins, James Paxton was terrific, really everybody was. From a
pitching perspective for Boston. He improveda seven and three let up, basically
a hit per renting state under thek prop of six and a half,
which is nice if you took that, which I did, and the offense
really didn't do a whole lot.They didn't. They didn't pieces yeah,
if you, if you took totalbasis for the likes of you know,

(01:04):
Deval or Reis or Story or Devers, then good on you. You hit
it. Anybody else didn't really doanything for you. But again, unlike
for the Patriots, who we willcertainly get to in a moment, the
Red Sox they just had to win, you know, stay, keep a
pulse, stay alive in the wildcard hunt and beat the bad teams.

(01:26):
And the Kansas City Royals unequivocally area bad team. Thirty seven and eighty
now as the Red Sox get theirsixtieth win of the year, So good
good, that's that's that's one inthe win column for Boston today. Yeah,
absolutely in Toronto lost today too,so you pick up a game there.
They're four games out of that finalwild card spot. Of course,

(01:48):
Seattle is now in between Boston andToronto. They're they're at one and a
half out, so the Sox arestill two and a half games behind them.
But they took care of business.They took three out of four.
A four game sweep would have beennice, especially after last weekend. But
really, no complaints right now forthe Red Sox tonight anyway, moving on
to get Chris Sale tomorrow against theTigers. Alex Cora says we're gonna get
about four innings on him. SoI wonder if the books are even going

(02:09):
to put a lineup for him athim, because I'm I'm wondering very much,
so if they're even going to becauseI would love to take the under
on whatever it is. Yeah,I don't know that we'll see an out's
prop for him when Cora comes outand gives information like that, but there
could be a strikeout prop listed.I think that's possible, Like four and
a half would be yeah, Imean that feels about right, because honestly,

(02:31):
like, if let's just go intoit, let's say that the expectation
is four innings and he doesn't getroughed up or worked to the point where
the pitch count is way up andhe can't even go that far. Let's
just say he can go four innings. If the k prop was three and
a half, you kind of haveto take the over on it, don't

(02:52):
you, Assuming that he's going tolook like Chris Sale. I mean,
he's been working back through the minors, he's been striking guys out, so
I would, yes, I wouldtake the over if it was three and
one a half. Four and ahalf gets a little frisky. Yeah,
No, if it's more than astrike upper inning, I'm not doing it.
Three and a half's the number.Meanwhile, the New England Patriots in
their preseason debut suffered a loss twentyto nine too. I guess you know

(03:15):
former GM Nick Cassario, if youwant to put a New England tie on
the other side. But the Texanswon in Foxborough and we had we had
my Yeah, I'm sure that's athat's one that really gets the blood pumping
for you. EJ the the nativeTexan. You know, we had Mike
Reason from ESPN with us last nightto help preview this game, and I

(03:38):
don't feel like we got the mostaccurate depiction of what this was going to
look like for Mike. But Idon't say that in any way, shape
or form to disparage Mike's analysis.It's more the just continued evidence of you
know, when when someone like whenwhen when we zig Bill Belichick zags or
vice versa. It you know,nobody I don't think would have You know,

(04:00):
we knew Mac Jones and most ofthe starters weren't going to play somewhere
out there. Taekwon Thornton. Hehad that tremendous catch of almost thirty yards
and you had some of the defensivestarters out there. Jalen Mills yep had
the interception obviously, But I don'tthink anybody would have expected Bailey's Appy to
play into the third quarter of thisgame. No, not at all.

(04:21):
And all that all this showed tome was that, like any rumbling of
there maybe being a quarterback controversy inNew England, that was squashed tonight.
It's Max's job. Yeah, Imean the rumbling was was just lazy,
yeah, or early August, waitingto get to the first preseason game.

(04:42):
You know, we need something totalk about. But now that is completely
squashed there. Billy's Appy is theclear number two, and he better watch
himself because QB three should be MalikCunningham's job. He was a little there
was a little of excitement there forMalie Cunningham and the fourth quarter next little
scramble to get the Patriots lone touchdowntonight. Yeah, it was nice.
Five for thirty four on the groundfor him, three out of four in
the air for nineteen. Of course, I know, the stats don't matter

(05:04):
all that much. It's how doyou play and are your productive? Zappy,
to his credit, now I agreewith everything that you said, but
Zappy, to his credit, didplay well. It's just the fact that
he played as much as he didin preseason game number one is indicative of
enough of telling you that, yeah, you are of no threat whatsoever.
You are no consequence. You arevery much in the shadow of Mac Jones,

(05:27):
which is why you have to rememberpeople out there listening as I'm sure
people know who are football fans,but if you're a casual at best football
fan, you have to keep inmind the more you play in a game
like this, the less likely itis that you will actually have a role
on this team. For instance,I was reading in an article just before
we came on a good example ofit was rookie Damario Douglas Pop. Douglas

(05:51):
has made a real name for himselfin training camp so far, one of
the receivers who knows where he fitson the depth chart behind the likes of
obviously Juju Smith, Schuster and TykewonThornton and DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne and
so on. But it says DamarioDouglas. You know, his playing time
on Thursday was fleeting, which isa good sign for the sixth round rookie,

(06:14):
right absolutely, And you saw himreturn a punt two, so that
means he's carving out a nice littlerole for himself, Adam. One takeaway
though from Mike last night that Ido think came true tonight is the backup
running back situation. Sure not impressedby Kevin Harris whatsoever. Eight carries ten
yards. Pierre Strong had a coupleof nice little runs there in the second
half, but those were against whatthird third stringers, So I mean,

(06:36):
maybe you chalk it up to theoffensive line, which that probably is a
legit issue here in New England.I would say it's probably the biggest issue
with the team is going to bethe offensive line and how they look.
But uh yeah, I think we'regoing to get a running back who's currently
in street clothes in here in Foxboroughin the next couple of weeks, and
not just that, obviously a veteran, you know, someone of significance.

(06:57):
Not to say that this player,whomever it maybe is, is still in
the prime of his career, butyou're going to if the Patriots actually do
this, and this is something,as you noted, we talked about with
Mike last night. They'll get aname. Ezekiel Elliott is a name.
Yeah, we've seen him. Itis a name, you know. Kareem
Hunt is a name. If oneof these guys does wind up in New
England, yeah, we've seen themdo this before, going way back to

(07:20):
Patriots a legend Fred Taylor back inthe day. Yeah, usually it's a
receiver, not as often a runningback, right, But it wouldn't be
totally out of left field for BillBelichick to do something like that. I
mean bringing La Garrett Blunt back roundtwo, you know, the same kind
of thing there. But they definitelywill need it because we saw ramondre Stevenson
get just worn down at the endof the year last year. So I

(07:41):
don't expect him to be the fullyou know, get that full workload the
entire time, especially throughout the beginningof the season anyway, So sadly,
I think fairly predictably, again,we have to talk. We have to
talk no no slight. To ourguy Matt Burke who was on with us
last night, I feel like Ireally I gotta listen back to it.
I really feel like he kind oftalked himself in circles when previewing that game,

(08:05):
and then when it came to givingthe People's parlay pick, because I
really feel like he was under underunder and then I asked him the People's
parlay pick, and he goes,I'm gonna go the over in in the
Patriots Texans game. And I kindof wan, huh. And obviously the
under hit twenty nine points. Alot of people were on the on the
under in this one. And look, he didn't ruin the parlay. We

(08:26):
all collectively ruin the parlay. Hewas an over three night for official show
picks. I was off on somethingthat everybody was on, which was Kent
Tomato reaching six strikeouts. He finishedwith five or four even it just you
know, he pitched well too.He just he wasn't getting the ball pass
guys. Unfortunately, the curse ofthe Orioles maybe is over with Kevin Brown

(08:50):
returning tomorrow night to the broadcast ontelevision. Because the Houston Astros took care
of business today, so business ordid not take their business exactly. I'm
singing at every one, yea swingingat everything. They'd a late rally but
just it didn't come through one runloss, and so just it was a
bad show, bad bad show pickswise, a lot of great content,

(09:11):
bad show picks wise. So andmy bank roll repair failed. Your bank
roll repair is we're entering life supportterritory. Yeah, it's it's getting it.
I mean a three legger first twohit and the third one is is
in trouble at the moment, timeis not on our side, which is
the over a goal and a halfin the Women's World Cup Spain contest.

(09:35):
We will see if if that andit's still scoreless, right, it's still
nil nil correct with at the we'reat the fifty seven minute mark. Yeah,
we need two goals from the ladiesquickly. Here's what we're going to
do. We're going to try andcleanse our palettes of all that has gone
wrong for us. And it's aback to school Thursday, back to college

(09:56):
Thursday. We are going to bringback our buddy from to Wire, John
mckeckney is going to help us previewthe Big twelve. We of course I've
done the acc he was here forthat. We did the Big ten last
week. Big twelve with John.When we can return here and he'll be
with us for a couple of segmentsas we spent a lot of time on
college football, will do the bankroll repair to close out the hour.

(10:18):
Next hour for a good chunk ofit, we will bring back our buddy
Aton Shander from Stochastic Shopper. Yeah, it has been I was looking back.
It's been almost a month I thinksince he was on with us,
which is kind of crazy because inthe early days of the show, not
that we've been around forever, butin the early days of the show,
very top heavy appearances by Aton.We haven't had him in a bit.

(10:39):
So that's going to change tonight.Hopefully it'll help change our luck because the
picks have gone south basically since hewas last on, and maybe that is
the gambling God's playing with us.I don't know what it is. I
want to say, we've hit withhim twice feels right, So feels right.
We need him. We're calling inthe bigs. Whatever it takes.
Man, if it hits, wehave him again on Monday, I don't

(11:01):
care. Let's just let's just buildsome momentum in the right direction because we
have been hemorrhaging show dollars of lateand uh and I don't like it.
It's not fun. It legitimately keepsme up at night. Not not no
oh, I need to go talkto somebody's sense, but in a how
do we fix this sense? Ivery much want us to get on the
right track. Hopefully Aton can helpus do that. We'll talk some NFL

(11:24):
preseason betting because there are five gamestomorrow, and we'll work in some Major
League baseball with him, I'm sureas well, So stay with us.
John mckackney coming up next. Collegefootball on the way, it's the Big
twelve. EJ. Pacheco is herepushing all the right buttons, and Dan
Watkins. I'm Adam Kaffman. TheGambler with Adam Kaufman on w RKO.
Golong Horns sick and tired of oldsports talk and want to get right into

(11:48):
the action. The Gambler with AdamKauffman. As you covered, call us
now it's six one seven two sixsix six eight six eight. That's six
one seven two six six eight sixeight. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
We'll be right back after this.On WRKO, we are back on the

(12:09):
Gambler with Adam Kaufman, here onWRKO. You can stream us online if
you're not already wrko dot com slashbet. As I mentioned earlier, it's
back to school Thursdays. We havealready covered the ACC, the Big Ten,
and now here on August tenth,as we are inching closer and closer
to week zero, it's the Bigtwelve s turn. Let's bring back John

(12:31):
mckeckney from Rhoda Wire Sports betting editorCollege Football as well, a guy who
certainly knows what he's talking about.He's proving that here on this show.
John's good to have you back.It's great to be back on guys.
Sorry missed the Big ten preview,but hopefully we can we can live up
to what we put down with theACC a couple of weeks ago. I

(12:52):
certainly hope. So a lot ofgreat information out there to get people set
from a betting perspective. We're goingto try and do the same here and
what is a and evolving conference obviously, I mean next week we're going to
be doing the Pack twelve, whichyou know, I guess for the last
time because we wanted that to dogoing forward. I mean, we could
have a Pack four preview next year. You don't know that. I guess

(13:13):
it's entirely possible. What for youbefore we even get into specifics of team
by team questions, I have someDan obviously has son, But John,
what what is your biggest I don'tknow question entering the year or the thing
that is top of mind for theBig Twelve for you, especially from a
betting perspective. So the first one, and you know it has been the

(13:39):
question for well over a decade now, and yet we still have get to
really good an answer is text usback? And at no other point do
I think has the table been setfor the Horns to actually take down this
conference. I mean, we havean Oklahoma team, I'm sure what we're
going to dive into that very polarizingafter what they put down in year one

(14:05):
under Brent Venables. We have ateam and Baylor that that actually has a
lot of returning talent from from lastyear, and it is a team that
obviously won the Big Twelve a coupleof years back, and it had a
bit of a tough one last year. And then we have the introduction of
all these news schools you know byU and a handful of AC teams entering

(14:28):
the mix, So there's just somuch to get to. But at the
same time, all that seems toset up where if Texas doesn't win that
that win the Big Twelve, thathas to be just a coossal disappointment.
I mean, we're talking about ateam that is, you know, plus
one hundred to win the conference,which is you know, fairly heavy favorites,

(14:48):
you know, relative to other conferencefavorites. It feels like it's there's
to lose. You you lose BijonRobinson, but you know you have Quinn
Yours coming back for another year.I think he, you know, dealt
with some injuries last year. He'sa guy that I think a lot of
people are are expecting to have ahuge season this year if he stays upright.

(15:09):
And you know, you're talking abouta receiving corps that is probably the
best in the country right now,So a lot to cook with on that
side of the ball. The defenseI think has some players as well,
so kent Texas actually finally get itdone on their way out the door,
I think is the big question forthe Big Twelve. Biggest threat obviously Oklahoma,

(15:30):
I don't think so. I thinkthat Oklahoma the program name and recognition
is carrying a lot of that thatpublic interest that you know, the idea
that oh, you know, lastyear they're resetting, they lose Caleb Williams,
they get a new coaching staff inthere, Uh, you know,
give them a break for last year, and the sp plus metrics actually painted

(15:52):
Oklahoma as well outperforming what their recordwould have suggested. That I think they
ended up is like the number eighteenteam in Bill Connolly's rankings last year.
Like I'm not sure if I seeit. I think that you know,
the Venable's style obviously a defense firstcoach that can work in the Big twelve.
Defense isn't a thing that you know, simply is non existent in the

(16:17):
Big twelve anymore. That there's alot of teams with good defense. But
you know, Dylan Gabriel I thinkto me as a question mark. I
thought last year, with him havingalready worked with Jeff Levy during his time
at Central Florida, you would havefigured that that would have clicked right away.
You have really talented players that forhim to you know, work with.
You're talking about a guy like MarvinMins, j wil Farouk, Theowees,

(16:41):
all these guys. But it justdidn't come together last year, so
I think that there's something rotten inthe state of Oklahoma and and frankly,
I expect them to disappoint once again. So when I'm wagering on the Big
Twelve for this year, I'm lookingat Texas and then I'm going a little
bit further down the lift. I'mabsolutely skipping Oklahoma as the number two team

(17:02):
in the odds. John going backto Texas here nine and a half.
Their win total, it's pretty heavilyjuiced on the over I'm seeing minus one
forty at some spots. They're evenmoney to win the Big Twelve. Obviously,
everybody thinks that this is the yearthey're finally going to put things together
and get back into the national spotlight. Year three of Steve Sarkisian. I've
been listening to some interviews of him. He sounds really confident in his team.

(17:23):
You mentioned that deep wide receiver roomwith Adie Mitchell now there too.
By the way, I'm sure you'rewell aware of that, but I want
you to paint us a picture here. Man. Week two, It's the
game everybody is circling in the collegefootball world. What if Texas goes into
Tuscaloosa, and not only do theycover the seven points spread, but they
walk away with a victory. Well, I think that Alabama has some problems.

(17:48):
I think that there's been a growingtrend over these last few years where
they don't have these bully offensive anddefensive lines. They kind of make the
idea of an upset against the Tidekind of a non starter. That they've
been out recruited by some other programsalong the trenches, so that they aren't
the juggernauts physically that that we've cometo know and expect in the Nick saban

(18:11):
era, So that there's that totake an account. I know it's going
to be in Tuscaloose, and thatis a very very difficult place to play,
of course, but this is againa Texas team that is loaded not
only with talent but also experience.And with Alabama, we're talking about a
team that is trying to replace thebest quarterback I think, talent wise and

(18:32):
performance wise in program history, andBryce Young the receiving corps is not overly
impressive. You know. I thinkit speaks volumes that Alabama has not had
their their starter named at quarterback,and I think it's going to basically go
up until Week one and they mightjust kind of mess around in that game,

(18:53):
rotate series, that that type ofthing to get ready, get see
who seem to be the most gameready in that season opener, and then
make their decision on who's starting againstTexas. So that that's a lot to
put on the plate of either TySimpson, Jayleen Melroe, or the Notre
Dame transfer Tyler Buckner. And I'mnot overly impressed with each of them.

(19:15):
I think all of them have flaws. So bottom line here, I think
Texas can absolutely cover this one.And you know what, no better way
to make that big statement than togo into you know, the belly of
the whale, the Giants layer andtake them down the way they would have
to play out if Texas were totake down Alabama. But I think this

(19:37):
is the year where Alabama is alittle bit on the downswing once again.
You know last year that they willunderperformed despite being the heavy favorites coming into
the year to win the national championship. And I don't know if they've really
fixed it exactly. John mckeckne's herefrom Row to Wire, we've been talking
Texas and Texas Tech in Oklahoma.We haven't even really touched on the teams

(19:59):
they're We're in the Big Twelve titlegame last year, so let's do that
when we come back, as wellas explore some dark horses to win this
conference. If in fact there areany stay with us, we'll be right
back. A need event about badbets. You've come to the right place,
tell us about it. Calls sixone seven two six six six eight
six six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight, or if you're

(20:25):
listening on the iHeartRadio app, usethe talkback button The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
We'll be right back after this.On WRKO, we are previewing the
Big Twelve Football Conference, and ofcourse week zero is approaching. As mentioned,
the football season is approaching. Ingeneral, college football get underway even

(20:48):
a little bit sooner. But theNFL is back. We love it.
Preseason is underway. Heck, there'sa game going on right now after the
Patriots lost tonight. But John mccacneyis here talking about this Big Twelve Conference
from rhoe to wire and as mentionedjust before the break, we've talked about
some of the bigger name schools Texas, Texas, Tech Oklahoma. But the
two teams that were actually in theBig Twelve title game last year, John

(21:10):
were Kansas State as well as TCUs. Let's talk k State first, a
team that is coming off that BigTwelve win, and that's despite losses in
season two Texas to TCU as well. They've lost QB Adrian Martinez also running
back Deucevawn. It's a tough leagueschedule. Are you expecting a drop off
here? I am. You know, we're looking at a wind total sitting

(21:33):
at seven and a half, whichis a tricky number because at the same
time, you know that those lossesare significant, right Like they was a
huge edge rusher. They was Deucevawnwho was like the complete engine of that
offense. Adrian Martinez when healthy lastyear, what was, you know,
a real difference maker for the wildcattBut you still have a Chris Climate coach
team. Will Howard has played alot of college football, so we're talking

(21:57):
about, you know, a successorto Martinez that you know, you could
do a lot worse than a guylike Will Howard. They brought in some
guys through the transfer portal and onceagain, I mean, they just play
a tough brand of football that thatI think is a little bit different or
it's a bit of a differentiator forthem relative to the rest of the conference.

(22:18):
They are going to be a trip, a tricky team to beat.
I think they can hit the wintotal on the over just by a nose.
I could see them going aid andfour. I have a hard time
with the head coach, with thereturning talents that they have that I have
hard time seeing them like barely qualifyingfor a bowl game. So I do,

(22:40):
like case State that this year.Do I like them to get back
to the BIGS ball title game?No, I think that they are going
to be surpassed by a couple ofteams there and they'll be you know,
knocked down a peg. But theyare certainly going to be no picnic every
single Saturday this this fall. Yeah, I don't think we're putting enough respect
on Kansas State. Honestly, goingin of this season, you can get

(23:00):
over eight and a half a plusone thirty five. By the way,
but will Howard John you just broughthim up. He went five and oh
as a starter in Big twelve games. The guy knows how to win,
he does. I mean, youknow, this is a guy who again
you know, has filled in atdifferent points over his college career. You
know, he's we're talking about aguy that that's played over twenty games at

(23:21):
the collegiate level. He's not Peytonmanning back there by by any means,
but he's effective enough as a passerthey don't ask their quarterbacks to do a
ton through the air. He's atough runner as well, so there's there's
enough to where you can just kindof sell yourself that he can absolutely operate
that offense. I mean, he'ssix five two forty two according to Rhodewire's

(23:45):
measurements. That that's a big guyto be bringing down with with the lack
of size overall in this conference,you know, like there's just chances that
he can run wild. And again, the rest of that run game,
that offensive line I think is goingto be stout and effective. So again,
they are just going to be,you know, a bowling ball covered
in nails every single Saturday. Soeven if you can can out talent them,

(24:07):
out athlete them, they might beable to outop and out coach you.
TCU, of course, twelve andOld last year before losing in that
Big twelve title game, that wetalked about upset Michigan the playoff, then
lost the National title game to Georgiaand were obliterated sixty five to seven.
Only three returning starters on offense fiveBig twelve road games as well. Seems

(24:30):
like on paper it is this teamis just being set up for disaster.
But what's your opinion? Well,I think it's interesting that Chandler Morris,
who is going to be their startingquarterback this year, actually started Week one
last year against Colorado. I mean, he was a big time recruit,
didn't work out at Oklahoma, ifI remember correctly, comes to TCU Beati,

(24:55):
Max Dunton gets a little bit bangedout at the beginning of last season
against Rodo, and you know,the rest is history. As far as
the way that that TCU season went, which was completely storybook until the very
end. I may or may nothave been in attendance for that one,
but you know, when it comesdown to it, I think you bring
up a very salient point. Theyjust lose so much. They lose the

(25:18):
big three that they lose Kendriy Miller, they lose Max Duggan, they lose
Quenton Johnston. They did well inthe transfer portal to kind of restock and
reload. And I think that maybeit's being a little bit oversold that they
lost Garrett Riley the offensive coordinator,because you bring in Kendall Briles, and
I think that Sonny Dikes is kindof like the overall mastermind of that offense.
So I think scheme wise, theyare. They still absolutely haven't.

(25:42):
I think that the way that they'verecruited under Sunny Dikes is enough to where
that there isn't going to be thiscolossal drop off as far as the talent
is concerned. That is a brutalschedule that they have coming up, though,
and I think just the overall hangoverof losing the way that they did

(26:03):
in the National Title Game and havingto kind of start fresh off of that,
I think is going to be alittle bit too much. So if
I had to pick a side thereat seven and a half, I am
taking me under All right, John, we got a couple of minutes left.
Would you want to fly through acouple of these other teams here are?
Starting with Oklahoma State? They interestme. This year they started five
and old last season finished six andseven. Got some question marks A quarterback

(26:26):
Spencer Sanders has transferred, but sixand a half is their total. Do
you have confidence in Mike Gundy toget this team back on track? I
that they are a huge question markbecause, like you alluded to their Dan
that they lose a lot. Theylose a multi year starter and Spencer Sanders.
They get the guy and Alan Bowman, who hasn't started in quite some

(26:47):
time, as taking kind of asecuitous route to get to still Water.
And you know what, I thinkthe bloom is coming off the roads a
little bit with Gundy, and he'sbeen more of a run heavy guy.
I think out of necessity over theselast couple of years, they've turned out
some great running backs. Of course, we remember Chuba Hubbard Justice Hill from
a couple of years back. I'mnot sure I'm seeing that guy in this

(27:11):
backfield, and I think they're They'regonna need some type of vansa there because
I'm skeptical on Bowman and I don'tthink the receiving corse great. The defense
is really gonna have to step upfor them to hit this number, and
I'm gonna go ahead and stay awayfrom that one. How do you feel
about Texas Tech being the dark horsein this conference. They're ten to one
to win the Big Twelve. Theywon eight games last year. They're returning
eighty percent of their offensive production insix starters on defense. I am absolutely

(27:37):
taking the cabinet on this one.I think the Texas Tech is the dark
horse in the Big Twelve. You'retalking about, you know, an experienced
starter and Tyler Shuck who's had areally tough time staying healthy, but if
he's able to stay healthy. Ireally like the direction that this team is
going to go in. They canabsolutely air it out. They have a

(27:59):
good back, they have a verycapable receiving corps. They obviously lose some
key pieces off of that defense,including a first round edge rusher, but
I think it's all right there infront of them. Their toughest game other
than Texas at the very end ofthe season is a non conference game against
Oregon. Tyler Shuck gets a littlebit of a revenge game narrative there.
We two circle that one on thecalendar. But I think that the direction

(28:23):
that this program is going in AndrewMcGuire is enough to where it's like,
you look at again what I've talkedabout with Oklahoma in Kansas State, I
don't think they're quite there. Ifthere's a team that can make a leap
in this conference and be a truechallenger to Texas, I think it is
Texas Tech, and you got fournewcomers this year. We got Cincinnati,
by U, UCF and Houston.Any of those teams gonna make any noise.

(28:48):
I think Houston could because they haveTexas Texas old quarterback, and I
think Holg knows how to coach atthis level and get his guys ready.
I wouldn't be surprised if if wecompared it to his later stage West Virginia
Davis, that this Houston team ison par or even a little bit better.
So I do like Houston to beat least, you know, not

(29:11):
the dormat among these newer teams.I think Cincinnati and UCF are going to
run into a lot of trouble.I think, you know, do a
on a smaller scale what we sawwith Cincinnati going up against Alabama in the
playoff a couple of years ago.It's going to play out a lot this
year. I don't think they're trenchready for this conference, and I think
it's gonna take some time to gettheir same story for UCF, although we

(29:33):
will see if GUS can really dialsomething up that could be pretty interesting.
But I think b YU, justbased on on their identity what they have
coming back there, there's you havea team that has, you know,
like I've been talking about with withmy doubts with Cincinnati and so on,
BYU is kind of a factory forfor big offensive lineman, defensive lineman.

(29:59):
So I think gonna be able tophysically hold up in this conference. They've
got some interesting transfers coming in aswell. So I think BYU what will
hold its own, not really challengefor the title, but hold its own
at the very least of BYU andHouston should be fine. UCF the wild
card, Cincinnati I think is infor a rough one. All right,
last question from me, John,is there a playoff team in this conference?

(30:21):
Again, like we talked about inthe first segment, if Texas pulls
that off against Alabama, I thinkthey can kind of run through the rest
of their schedule, at least theyshould. They have no excuse to undefeated
Texas gets into the playoff. Iknow that you know that there have been
times where conference conference champions in thesort of lesser thought of conferences. Your

(30:41):
pack twelves, your big twelves don'tquite get the resume love of maybe like
a one loss team from the SEC, that type of thing. But bottom
line here, I'm gonna put mystamp on and I think that this is
the year that the Texas does kindof break through here. So I will
say the Texas is one of thosefour teams in the playoffs. Wow,

(31:02):
so we got half of John mckeckney'splayoff prediction already, Adam, Florida State
in Texas, lock it in,never two works, get ready, get
ready to get these futures bets inAbsolutely. John mckeckney from Rhoda Wire again
college football and sports betting editor.He has joined us a couple of times
the ACC a couple of weeks backBig twelve. Today. Maybe we will

(31:23):
hear from him again for SEC aswe get a little bit closer to h
the first week of game action incollege football. John, great, having
you on, Man, We'll doit again for sure. Downs great,
guys, thanks again for having meon. Thanks John. All right,
now let us find out if somehowsome way we can find success. We

(31:45):
got we got a goal, Adam, we gotta we got a pek goal.
We need one, we need onemore. How much time we have
left? We're at the eighty eightminute mark. So if we got a
little bit of stoppage time here,that could help, all right? Well,
that that would do wonders for myconfidence and believing that we have any
ability to actually shake our bank rollrepair curse. I have gone just a

(32:06):
little bit outside the box in myapproach for this particular bank roll repair,
and I'm eager to share it withyou. So let's do that when we
return here on the Gambler with AdamKaufman. Sick and tired of old sports
talk and want to get right intothe action. The Gambler with Adam Kaufman,
as you covered, call us nowit's six one seven two six six

(32:28):
six eight six eight. That's sixone seven two six six six eight six
eight. The Gambler with Adam Kaufmanwill be right back after this is on
WRKO. It's time for your bankrollrepair, powered by today's collision. EJ
hit it, yes, give itagain. I guess all we needed was

(32:52):
a little pep talk and a commercialbreak and lots of stoppage time. But
Dan, your bank roll repair spitethe sweat has hit. Oh my god,
what a sweat, What a sweat. We got two goals in this
game, finally, the ladies.They gave us some goals. We needed
them to score and they did herelate. It's one one as they're in

(33:12):
stoppage time right now in Australia betweenSpain and the Netherlands. But hey,
that's two bankroll repairs for me thisweek, I think, so hopefully we
can keep it going here. Yeah, I will tell you exactly what's going
on. You have hit two outof your last three and I have dropped
my last seven. It's not beengood ironically since we started this. You
and I have basically the same record, but you are picking up a little

(33:35):
steam and I am in a completeand total rut. In between the two
of us, we are thirteen andtwenty three and down almost ten units.
So fortunately today with your hit mymiss was a break even day. No
no gain, but no loss.We need to go into the weekend strong.
I've gotten a little wacky with mine. I will save it. You

(33:58):
do yours first. Yeah, I'mgetting wacky again too. We went we
got weird last night with a couplejust win sets in tennis and then the
over in this soccer game, sowe're gonna get weird again for tomorrow,
Adam, and let's this is alsogoing to be a benefit for the live
listeners too, by the way,because we're gonna go right to this next
World Cup game, which starts atthree thirty am our time, and we're

(34:20):
gonna take Japan to score a goalthat is leg one. So Japan this
played four World Cup games. They'retotals so far five, two, four
and three. We just need oneone from them here in this game.
So and if you're looking, Ibelieve in FanDuel or bet MGM, it
is the home team to score becausethey don't give the actual team name for
some reason. I don't know.It confused me earlier, but anyways,

(34:43):
we move on and then we're gonnago to tennis again the ATP Toronto and
we're gonna take Alijandro Davodovich Folkina towin a set, and then we're all
He ruined a bank roll repair forus the other night, so hopefully he
can help us out and on thisone make it up to us. And
then we're going to take the Dodgerson the money line tomorrow against the Rockies
Monster Favorites again, they're like it'slike minus three sixty or something like that.

(35:07):
It's something stupid. But anyways,you put those three legs together on
Draft Kings. I got plus oneoh five Fan Duel plus one thirteen and
bet MGM is the place to playthis at plus one twenty plus one twenty.
Good on you, and you're gonnahave to I'll have to have you
send me those so I can can'tbuild them. Well, well, we're
going, uh and you know,during our next commercial, and I'll build

(35:29):
that so I can be a takeadvantage as a live listener here. You
probably won't be able to build thison the fly. It's very complicated,
but I would encourage you write itdown yet. So here here's what I'm
doing. I am both playing itsafe and playing with fire all at the
same time because I am offering youwhat at least on Fan Duel. I'm

(35:52):
not sure how many books you evencan build this on just yet because lines
are only starting to come out.I am doing something I have not yet
done, but I've talked about wantingto do, albeit not this complicated.
I am building out a picture strikeoutparlay, except taking a page from a
PBG. I am except the wayprop that guy does it is he has

(36:14):
a little more confidence. You know, he might go one under the hook
for instance. I am going whatshould be quote unquote super safe, but
because of that, it's requiring morelegs. So I am offering you,
and I really do like this,which maybe should be your first sign that
it won't hit. But I amoffering you a five leg pitcher. Parlay.

(36:37):
Oh boy, that's right. Okay, here's what we need. This
is not a lot to ask.We need Luis Castillo to reach five strikeouts,
something that he has done in sevenof his last eight starts. We
need Kyle Gibson to reach four strikeouts, something he has done in eleven of

(37:00):
twelve starts, and he has hitthis number in only three innings against Seattle
back in June, he's facing theMariners again. We need Charlie Morton of
the Braves to reach four strikeouts.He's done this in twenty of his last
twenty one starts, including twice againstthe Mets, who he will face on

(37:22):
Friday. We need Lance Lynn toreach five strikeouts, a number he is
hit in his last ten starts.And we need Corbyn Burns to reach five
strikeouts, a number he has achievedin seven straight starts. Once again,
that is Castillo, five k's,Gibson, four k's Morton, four k's

(37:47):
Lynn, five k's Burns, fivek's obviously all alternate totals. You build
that out on FanDuel. It isexactly an even money bet at plus one
hundred. All right, let's doit now. The reason, obviously,
I say we're playing with fire isHeaven forbid one of these guys gets roughed

(38:07):
up and out in the first inning, or gets hurt or whatever it is,
like one blister, yeah, whateverit is, you know, pulls
a Chris Sale in any way,shape or form, falls off his bike
on the way to the park.I don't know one guy can ruin this.
For all of them, we knowthis. I did a tennis parlay
the other day just for me.This wasn't a show parlay, and I

(38:27):
did nothing but heavy favorites. Idid. I want to say, seven
or eight heavy favorites that according tothe ad shopper tool I was looking at
and Aton Schander will join us nexthour from odd Shopper. I was looking
at the odd Shopper tool and itgave each of those individuals at least a
seventy five percent chance of winning,and all hit but one, So it

(38:52):
only takes one. It only takesone. But let's hope this works out
for the pitcher Parlay, Hopefully itworks out for you, and hopefully a
successful sweep of the bankroll repair onFriday. We'll be right back our number
two on the way with Shander andmore on this. That was your bankroll
repair, powered by today's collision withlocations in Bold and Chelsea, Stoneham and

(39:15):
DENVERI our number two of the Gamblerwith Adam Coffin. You're on wr koh
as we might not quite yet.Almost had another touchdown in this preseason game.
Football's back, baby. I almostfeel like I should have made a
daily fantasy lineup for it. I'mtoo caught up in Bestball drafts and all
that good stuff. Would you haveplayed Millie Cunningham tonight? Be honest?

(39:39):
Sure, why not? I don'tlike they'll, I mean like we had.
When Matt Burke was on with uslast night, he had made the
comment and he was you know,We've said it a bunch of times.
He's far from the first person tosay it, but that betting on preseason
football is about the lowest form ofdegeneracy. I would say even lower than
that is playing lee fantasy season football. You know, betting on preseason football,

(40:02):
at least you can follow certain trendsdfs for preseason football. You know,
everyone's priced the same, and there'sno right like forget it, no
way I mean that is, that'sjust winging a prayer kind of stuff.
Let's bring in Aton Shander, whoI'm looking back here. He's from Stochastic
and odd Shopper, of course,a good buddy at this show. But
the last time he was on withus, well, actually you weren't here

(40:24):
this particular day, Dan, Sothe last time he was here was June
twenty sixth with me. Prior tothat, when we were both here was
just a little bit prior to thatJune fourteenth. So it's basically been a
couple of months since the three ofus had an opportunity to hang out.
And Aton, that's not right,man, Whose fault is that? I

(40:46):
don't know. I've asked a coupleof times, you've been busy. Well,
okay, so I have a holdon, hold on a second,
I have a two year old toddler. My wife is eight once at the
time was six and a half monthsor so pregnant. We are taking our
two car garage, knock a walldown, and having major construction inside the

(41:10):
house. So my pregnant wife andtwo year old toddler are essentially in a
pressure cooker because we have like athird of the house. So the fact
that I'm even conscious eleven minutes afterthe hour at eleven o'clock on the East
coast in life let alone, foryou, my friend, is a big,
big thing for me. It's trueyou are an early riser between your

(41:34):
TV responsibilities or cranking out videos forodd Chopper, and but I mean that
sounds like a whole bunch of excusesif we're being honest. Nevertheless, I'm
glad that you're here. Yeah,yeah, you're right, you're right.
I'm glad that we're here, Gladthat we just saw a touchdown for the
Seahawks, because it's just a reminderthat that football is coming, and maybe
we'll get to a little bit ofbaseball while you're here with us. But

(41:57):
football is of course the priority thePatriots lost earlier. As we know,
our beloved Pats are matching up withyour beloved Eagles come Week one. We've
talked about that game a little bitin the past, but right now the
focus is on preseason betting. Howheavily do you get into this and are
you already mapping out all of yourplays for a five game slate tomorrow?

(42:19):
Now? I have a couple ofearly plays for this weekend, but I
hit earlier on the Patriots game,were and just again taking Houston as the
road team in that, but alsothe under big on unders in the preseason
first week Again tonight, I haveMinnesota plus three and a half. I

(42:42):
have Minnesota plus three and a halfand the under on the total. So
I'm looking at the I think itwas, yeah, thirty five and a
half. I didn't like that becauseI knew that dipped. I think at
least a point and a half.But you know, it's preseason. Things
are gonna move. Look if youI forget how far back it is at,
but it's it's a good enough stretch. So where if you just blindly

(43:05):
bet underdogs every week every year forthe preseason, you're gonna be up.
You're just gonna make money. It'sjust the nature of it. So that's
one thing people can do that thatI think is almost enjoyable if you will,
from the betting standpoint. Now,as all three of us know all
too well, as soon as youget to the regular season, forget about
it. This is the sharpest sporton the planet by a million times over.

(43:30):
But I mean to have to havegood data and to have long enough
data where betting underdogs just blindly inthe preseason can be profitable. I think
it's a good thing, especially weekone, especially against teams that are top
heavy or that played deep into thisseason their year prior. So you know,

(43:54):
I kind of look at some somestuff generally at least like that,
and then we can kind of talkspecifics if you want, but that's really
the general approach. So when yousay unders, and I know what you
mean obviously full game unders, buthow much do you apply that to havels?
For instance, Like I saw therewere as many people as we're on
the under for the Patriots game today, as an example, I saw that

(44:16):
many more people that were all aboutthe first half under in that game.
And that's not something that's offered atevery book. You need to obviously shop
around a little bit something you knowwell about but do you sort of pursue
unders at at every opportunity or areyou not kind of going crazy with this

(44:36):
stuff? No? I think ifyou are going to play totals in the
preseason, you should definitely basically youshould look at it from the standpoint of
why is it going to go over? Right? You should start every single
total at least the first two weekslike it's going to go on there,

(45:00):
and then you go through a processof why it will go over and if
you can convince yourself or if thenumbers or the or the process, what
the approach, whatever way you wantto define it can convince you as the
better that this game has a reallygood chance or should be going over,
or the totals off by a coupleof points and there's value in going over

(45:22):
what have you? Then then that'sgreat. But for me personally, I
look at it like, all right, you know, is there are there
trends? Is there history? Now? Pete Carroll has been around for a
long time. This guy has nointerest from and against the spread, even
just looking at it from a recentstandpoint, ats in week one, he

(45:43):
has no interests in playing these games, just absolutely zero interests, right,
Seattle's one and three against the spreadthe last four game one of the preseason,
so that's somewhat Russell. That's withoutRussell, right, I mean,
this guy just had Now he's liketwelve and three right as far as career
is in week three of the preseasonbecause as we know, for a while,

(46:06):
week three was like your last realdress rehearsal before they shortened the preseason,
so he was coaching in those games. So coaching records are huge.
I played the under tonight because overhis last nine preseason home games, Pete
Carroll is one seven and one basicallyover under. So seven one and one

(46:30):
to the under over his last ninepreseason home games, and you know what,
who cares if that's baked into theline or not. We're talking about
a preseason game where coaches just can'twait to get the hell out of there
in the final quarter. Anyway,we saw the Texans start kneeling at one
fifty five tonight. You don't seethat very often. It was pretty funny

(46:52):
saying get out of there. Buttimes, what's that real quick? I'm
sorry, yeah, real quick?I had Remember I had under thirty five
and a half. So if theTexans try to go out there and prove
something with the two men a drilland to get some points. I'm cooked,
right, So yeah, I'm sweatingthat until I saw the victory formation.

(47:12):
How much does the second string quarterbackplay into your strategy for yeah,
because we've seen actually like four serviceablesecond string quarterbacks tonight between Davis Mills,
Bailey's Appy, Nick Mullins, Godbless him, and Drew Locke as well.
But those are four guys, andit looks like tomorrow we're gonna have
a bunch more decent ones too,between Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, and
then Mike Mitch Trubisky. We'll seethose guys too. Now, I'm really

(47:38):
glad you asked me that, becausethat's something that I just omitted in the
first response there with Adam that it'severything out, so let I prioritize it
with coaching and quarterback in the NFLregular season. It flips right. Regular
season. The only time a winloss record matters to me for a quarterback

(48:00):
is betting. It's different with pitching. It's always going to be different in
baseball. But I'll never argue thata win loss record for a quarterback should
put him in the Hall of Fame, or that a win loss record for
a quarterback defines anything more. Butif you know a guy is three and

(48:20):
thirteen or eight and thirty straight up, why the heck would you keep betting
on him? Because that's just thenature of games in which he plays backup
quarterbacks. It's not as difficult asit seems in the preseason. We know
tonight, Drew Lock and Nick Mullinsare going to get the majority of the
work. Look, Locke's still cominginto his own. He's had some ups

(48:40):
and downs, a lot of downs, a lot of limited opportunity. I've
seen Nick Mullins play. We've allseen Nick Mullins play. He's got game
experience, real game like game weeksto week experience. Rememberbody took over third
string in Sand Friends. So that'swhat I'd look at. This is a
guy who steps into a ready madesystem and has game week to week experience.

(49:06):
That's what I target over a guyin Drew Locke. Pete Carroll couldn't
give a rats tale about Week onein the preseason. Well, O'Connell was
oh and three last year, andhe's probably going to come out and try
to set the tone in week one. Those are little things I look at
for tonight's game and in general.Aton very important question here because it involves

(49:29):
how we're going to plan the remainderof the time that we have with you.
Would you like to hang out fortwo segments or three? Uh?
Well, what's the difference. Well, the difference is we keep you for
about I don't know, ten twelvemore minutes, or we keep you for
about twenty more minutes. How aboutI do two? How about I do

(49:49):
twelve? All right, I'll dothe twenty. Hey, it's a it's
a there's no pressure. There's nolike live on air pressure. Whatever you
want to do. Yeah, yeah, yeah, right, I'll never be
a out of the building again.Go ahead, all right. Well,
in that case, we will continuethis conversation when we return. We will
give Aton even a little bit moretime to plan out his people's parlay pick,

(50:12):
because we are desperate to hit oneof these and Eton has been successful
with us in doing so in thepast, so let's hope that we can
all have some success when we dobuild that out, not next segment,
but the one after that. BecauseShander here is generous with his time,
and he missed us that's what he'stelling us. He missed us, it's
been a couple of months and hewants to hang out. We'll be right
back. Need e vent about badbets. You've come to the right place.

(50:37):
Tell us about it. Call sixone seven two six six six eight
six six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight, or if you're
listening on the iHeartRadio app, usethe talkback button. The Gambler with Adam
Kaufman will be right back after thison w r KO Football's Here Baby least

(51:00):
the preseason variety. The Patriots playedearlier, still game going on right now,
and there are five on the docketfor Friday. We're chatting with Aton
Shander from odd Shopper and Stochastic.And Aton, you mentioned there are already
a couple of spots that you likeother than just unders in general. What
do you have your eye on fortomorrow? Well tomorrow in well this weekend

(51:21):
as well. Sure, of coursefive games just tomorrow. I thought I'm
mistaken. Yeah, yeah, wegot Packers, Bengals, Falcons, Dolphins,
Steelers, Bucks, Giants, Lions, Commanders, Browns, and Broncos
Cardinals. How about that? That'ssexful. Friday's well, I can take
the Giants, so we can startthere on Friday. I liked them winning

(51:47):
this game, just I'll take themthere with In that regard, if you
look at Detroit where they were justsuch a public they were just such a
public favorite, if you will,where in the preseason the following year they
also had so much think about this, right, they were a public favorite

(52:13):
at the end of last year.They were talked about all offseason as far
as the team that's got a shotnow to win the division. Rogers is
out Minnesota, nobody believes in KirkCousins, all this, and then you
look at the Giants. There's sixteenand five against the spread as preseason dogs,
twelve seven and one in preseason openerson the road against the spread.

(52:38):
Just a good spot I think forthem to be in. You know,
nobody's talking about the Giants coming intothis year as a team that's going to
knock the Eagles off by any means, and there's something to that with the
team. I don't care how focusedor how hungry Dan Campbell is and all
that other stuff. This is agood Giants team. And I just I

(53:00):
like him in this spot, reallydo like him in this spot, guys.
The game that's jumping out to mehere tomorrow night is the Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals game. The Cardinals aregoing to be pitiful this year, but
Denver and Sean Payton, they're tryingto re establish some sort of culture out
there and the Mile High and Denver'sgonna play their starters in this one at
least fifteen snaps. From what I'veread and what I've heard, first half

(53:22):
of money line or first half spreadfor Denver three and a half. So
if Russ can get something going thereearly and you know, maybe even get
two scoring drives out of him,Denver could cruise to this. Yeah.
I don't hate that at all.I think Denver's Denver's in a really interesting
spot where it's not just Russell Wilson, but there's a lot. We have

(53:45):
a new head coach with a namelike Sean Payton coming in. Nobody is
safe. And I don't mean itlike you know, long time BET's going
to lose his job, but younever know. I mean this guy comes
in with a Belichick key an approachin the sense of like it's his way,
and Russell Wilson is there to fallin line, not in a negative

(54:06):
way, but in a helpful,supportive way. So I'm with you,
man, I think these guys willplay for Peyton. How in two trends
are you in general? Whether it'stalking about, you know, the Ravens
success in the preseason or obviously theSteelers have had success in the pre Steve
season two, it's sort of theopposite of what you were talking about with
Pete Carroll, where he, likeBill Belichicker, just go out and don't

(54:30):
give a damn about the outcome ofthese games. Not to say the coaches
on these other teams that have hadsuccess did, but also, you know,
results don't lie. Yeah, SoI think nothing stands alone with a
trend, right. It shouldn't justbe the reason or the only reason why
you make a bet. And itshould also make sense. What a team

(54:52):
does, I mean all this stuff, what a guy, what a team's
record in baseball is tuesdays? Imean, who cares? Right? All
these things that you can find,and to be fair in the NFL you
can get tripped up on things aswell. So again with the Pete Carroll
stuff, I look at his recordagainst the spread in Week one and Week

(55:15):
two, combine, which is likemarginally at five hundred if that, And
then I look at what he's donein week three again, looking at years
where week three actually was week threeof week four of four weeks, I
should say, there's a power,there's something you're there, there's something you
can extrapolate, right, there's somethingthat says, okay, week one,
week two is different than week three, and then it tells a story.

(55:37):
So for example, I'm all overBaltimore on Saturday. It's not just because
he's twenty two and one against thespread hardball, but he's thirteen and one
straight up, twelve and two againstthe spread at home in preseason openers.
All right, that's great, butyou need more, you need more?

(55:58):
Well, how about the Philadelphia Eagles. Nick Sirianni doesn't even know if he's
going to play these guys, andprobably shouldn't because they've got the Patriots week
one, they just played in thesuper Bowl. There's no reason to parade
these guys out. They're not deepfrom a veteran standpoint, they're deep from
a young talented standpoint. Well,you don't just walk into the NFL and

(56:21):
dominate right away, especially if you'renot given a chance with vanilla play calling
and just getting in getting out.Then you go back to some trends.
How about this one super Bowl losersten twenty straight up, six twenty three
and one against the spread, andpreseason openers since nineteen ninety two, including

(56:42):
three and sixteen against the spread againstteams have won two or more preseason games
the previous year, which we knowBaltimore all they do is when preseason games.
Why why does this stat make somuch sense? Because teams that lose
the Super Bowl don't know at thetime that they ain't getting back to the

(57:04):
super Bowl, right, so they'retrying to rest everybody. They're trying to
ease into this year. They knowthey have a difficult schedule, all these
the guys are still hurt, allthese things. So that's why it comes
together where this was a smash forme on Baltimore for a Saturday's game.
So when you say that, youmean Baltimore covered the four and a half
or Baltimore on the money line,where obviously there's not nearly as much value.

(57:27):
No, I got him at four, and I'm and I'm fine with
that, totally fine with that.All right, Well, here's what I
want to do. I want usto break when we come back. I
don't know if you have any earlybaseball thoughts for Friday. You don't have
very many, then that's that's nota problem. Does have to be Oh
my god, you're killing me.You you're talking about for the People's Parlay

(57:47):
or in general? Yeah? CanI just get no? No, People's
Parley doesn't have to be baseball.I hate don't know people's parlay. Any
any pick you want is the People'sParlay. I'm not I would never put
anybody in a box. You cangive me a UFC pick if you want.
I don't care. Yeah, Ijust want you to have some conviction

(58:09):
behind it. Whatever it is.You know, that's that's your pick.
I just hope it hits, because, damn it, we need it.
So we're gonna build out the People'sParlay in a little bit. We'll see
if Eton has any baseball thoughts forFriday. They don't have to be part
of the parlay. But if hehas any early thoughts, we can hit
on those as well when we return. Stay with us The Gambler with Adam
Kaufman w r KO Sick and tiredof old sports talk and want to get

(58:31):
right into the action. The Gamblerwith Adam Kaufman. As you covered,
call us now with six one seventwo six six six eight sixty eight.
That's six one seven two six sixsix eight six eight. The Gambler with
Adam Kaufman will be right back afterthis on w r KO. We'll build

(58:52):
out the People's Parlay with Aton Chanderfrom aut Schopper and Starcastic in a matter
of moments and hopefully between Aton Danme, oh god, we need a
winner, and I'll go over someof the stats for you. But baseball
has just been been kicking my rs. Aton. I know that's true of
Dan. I've texted you about it, so you know you know how upset

(59:14):
I am with baseball sport that Ilove. I love with my heart,
I do not love with my wallet. A perfect example. And I didn't
even bet on this game, thankgod. But the Rockies in the seventh
inning, Yeah, are up onenothing in LA on the Dodgers. We
talked about this, a team thatwas minus four hundred on the money line,
LA minus four hundred on the moneyline with Kershaw on the mound and

(59:36):
the Rockies are ahead. Yeah,we were talking about this last night at
plus two forty. It was almostworth just throwing a couple of shekels on
there as a flyer and get thevalue. And if you have, you
have a good opportunity to cash outif you don't want to risk letting it
ride all the way through. Yeah. I mean that's why the run line
is so fun yet stupid. Andit's the same thing with like the puck

(59:57):
line I hated, but every nowand again, like there's never value I
think on laying one and a half. But when you see something so absurd,
right, a four to one favoriteor what have you, you're you're
almost compelled too if you're going toput a small amount fifteenth of a unit

(01:00:19):
whatever it may be, twenty bucks, fifteen bucks on the money line,
but also make a pretty decent playon the run line, because I think
that's what happens a lot is yousee these heavy favorites, they wind up
winning the game. But so manypeople look at that like, oh minus
four hundred, I'm not laying that. Let me just lay minus one thirty

(01:00:42):
on the run line, and thatjust cleans people out when it's like and
watch, Dodgers will probably come backand win by a run or something like
that and kill the run line.But and just clean books, will clean
up on so many people who decidedto lay the one thirty one forty whatever
it was, as opposed to eithereat the four hundred to one or simply

(01:01:06):
take have the stones if you will, to take the other side. And
it's Colorado, I get it.Yeah, I mean, or to your
point, you know, if youdidn't, I don't know. Is it
is it worth putting a little somethingon Colorado plus one and a half as
opposed to, you know, committingyourself to Colorado's money line or do you
just stay away at that point atthe start of the game, at the

(01:01:28):
start of the game, Yeah,obviously not right now when it's one nothing
Rockies. Yeah, I mean,look, did that's did the bottom half
of the inning start yet? Oh? Yeah, Muncy's at the plate.
It's a two two count. I'minterested. It's it's minus one forty,
So that means there's a ball,I'm sure because it just moved, all

(01:01:49):
right. So here's the thing onhim. It's it's a three two count.
We'll see what happens at this atbad but if Muncy gets out,
that's probably going to drop down.I'm interested. If Muncy gets on the
bag, that's probably going to limitmy interest if you will. Oh,
he just hit a jack. Forgetit, damn it, say we missed

(01:02:13):
it was the opportunity was there,you know. It was minus one twenty
on a two two count. Itwent to minus one forty, and now
it's all the way up at minusthree ninety five. Here's where it gets
interesting. Muncy hits a jack.It's one one. Do you lay the
one and a half live at plusone thirty five and I'm seeing plus two

(01:02:39):
thirty five minus one and a halffor the Dodgers. Yeah, minus one
thirty five minus one and a halfplus two thirty five. Really, what
book is that that's on? Fandel? Oh my goodness, that's a pretty

(01:03:00):
significant gap. I heard you're bankingon the Dodgers scored two more runs here,
obviously, but I have the overin this game, so I'm holding
the numbers that. Yeah, Imean. The problem with extra innings,
of course, is that you don'tget the benefit of that. So this
thing needs to be handled in oneinning four now, and they don't have

(01:03:21):
any outs tailors at the plate.Yeah, minus one and a half two
twenty. Whoa Draft Kings is stillat plus one thirty five, all right,
so I know Draft Kings is thatplus one thirty five. I'm gonna
take a flyer at plus two twentyright now. We'll see if they I
think tnive Draft King. Sorry,no, I was gonna say, I

(01:03:44):
mean you said one shot. Reallythey have two. They don't have any
outs in the seventh, so theygot six outs to work with before it
even gets to the ninth inning,right, and it looks like they just
replaced Blacks out there. So you'vegot a new picture in here with Doyle
had just dropped. I got inat two twenty. It's dropping, it's
dropping, which tells me that FanDuelwas off one seventy as we were talking

(01:04:08):
about it. Yeah, and DraftKings is climbing to plus one fifty,
right, so the market is workingitself out. Fanduels down to one sixty
eight, so Raft Kings will probablyclimb a little bit. But you know,
with that level of discrepancy, thatwide of a gap, somebody was
off. So we just took thechance that Fan Duel was off because that
was the better number. Listen,I hope it works out for you.

(01:04:30):
That's what. Look, here's thething, people, if you believe in
CLV or any of these other mythsout there. The bet was at two.
Sorry, the bet was at twotwenty right. The only thing that's
changed is the picture and people bettingit. It's now down to one sixty

(01:04:51):
eight. So I've done my job, and all I need now are the
Dodgers. Like I've done everything Ican do, which is identif, find
a play, make sure there's valuein there, and watch the market work
to make sure and ensure that there'svalue. Doesn't mean it's going to hit.
Nothing can be guaranteed. But thatthat was the live play because we

(01:05:13):
missed it. We missed the windowof the Dodgers at minus one twenty right,
because that was pretty months e Jack. Yeah, and I don't remember
what the Dodgers at that time.It would have been the plus one and
a half run line. I don'tremember what that looked like. It was
probably, you know, still ahorrible probably. Yeah, it was like
minus three hundred, probably, Butlet's all right, so let's build out

(01:05:33):
the people's parlay. But that wasa little fun live betting exercise for the
people. Hopefully some took advantage ofit right along with you, and most
importantly, hopefully it cashes. We'llbe keeping an eye on it long after
we are done with this show.But the People's part lay. So as
of late aton I have pretty muchalternated wins and losses with my personal official

(01:05:55):
picks for a couple of weeks.Dan is in a little a very rare
rut because between the two of us, he still has a better record than
me, but he's dropped four ofhis last five. Our guests have only
hit i want to say, twoof their last nine something like that.
It's not been pretty. So weneed stars to aligne. We need all
three of us to come together andbuild out a successful People's parley for Friday

(01:06:17):
and help the show pick back someshow units that we have lost in recent
weeks. So you, being theguest, start us off. What is
your favorite pick for Friday? Letme go second, I'm still looking at
something here. I'm gonna have togo baseball. Well, Well, here's
the thing, like doesn't have tocould be any sport, whatever you want.

(01:06:39):
I'm debating whether or not I wantto go with the World Cup because
I've actually been able to do Okay, there can I go second. Sure,
Yeah, Dan start you go,you go first? All right,
I'll go first. I'm gonna goa little juicier guys on a line here
than I normally would, just becausewe need to win bad. I need
to win bad, So I'm gonnago to this Padres Diamondbacks game. Blake

(01:07:02):
Snell, he's been money this year. Backed him quite a few times in
people's parley. He's come through me, through for me quite a bit.
Minus one sixty two on the moneyline, I'm seeing for the Padres.
So I'm gonna go with that andhave them to take the Diamonds or beat
the Diamondbacks tomorrow, even money onthe run line. Just want to mention
it. Yeah, that's nice,Adam, go ahead and take it yourself.

(01:07:23):
Do not want it? Eight Ton, you're ready? You want me
to go? No, I'll go. I'm gonna add Houston in here.
They're hosting the Angels. Verlanders makinga pretty big start. I believe it's
his five hundredth career start, andmore so read Debtmers has just been struggling
over his last five He hasn't evengone out of the fifth inning in over

(01:07:47):
half of those oh and five witha five four nine e r A on
the road. Just no way.I don't want anything to do with read
debtmers. I don't care if Otanihits three checks in that game, the
probably all these solos and the Angelswill go back to losing. So I'll
take Houston. Throw that in theremoney line and this Houston money line.

(01:08:08):
All right, So that's a that'sa fat one. That's a minus two
hundred play. You're whoo whoo,who whoa, whoa, whoa whoa?
Are you sure I got minus oneninety two for Houston? Yeah? Hold
on, it changed because I wasgonna go Milwaukee earlier, but they've bounced
up to minus one seventy five.They opened around minus one fifty, so
a lot of people around these asiaearly in the day. I got him

(01:08:30):
at one sixty six. Well yougot him at the right time because they
have that's a first line still onefirst five is one sixty six first five,
Yeah, not vandals minus one ninetysix. Wow, yeah, Draft
Kings, it's minus one sixty six. Still, all right, let's do

(01:08:51):
that Draft Kings one sixty six firstfive? Is that? Is that a
tayo bet? That's money line?Funny line. Yeah, it's two options,
all right, So worst case here, as I void you, they
lose these all right, here's whatI'm gonna do. Guys. We were
talking about football under this before,and I was reading this from the Action

(01:09:15):
Network, and I am reading here. The key number to remember when betting
preseason totals is thirty seven or thirtysix and a half for those of you
who preferred your glass half empty andyour numbers with decimals. Since twenty fourteen,
a betting number under a total ofthirty seven or more in the preseason
has produced a record of two one, one, thirty and eight, a
sixty one percent conversion and a smoothseventeen percent ROI. That is from Chris

(01:09:43):
Raybon over at Action Network earlier today. So eton here said, you know,
don't don't bet preseason football blindly.While I'm gonna kind of bet preseason
football blindly. I am looking attomorrow's games, and I am looking at
the highest total, which is thirtynine and a half between the Steelers some
Buccaneers, and I'm gonna take theunder. Yeah, by the way,

(01:10:03):
I did say you can. Youcould bet the dogs blindly and you'd be
profiting just like you'd be betting underthirty seven. I love that. I
mean, Tampa Bay has no interestin winning football games this year, let's
be honest. Nope. So Isee it's probably it must be better on
DraftKings Dan, just because I stillhave that really fat first five Houston money

(01:10:26):
line number on on FanDuel. Sofor Pondres money line, Astros first five
and under thirty nine and a halfBucks stealers, I have plus three sixty
four. I got plus three ninetyfour on DK Yep, yeah, four
to one for that is fantastic.Give me that. And by the way,
what were you said, thirty seven? Is that number the Bucks stealers?

(01:10:51):
The Buck stealers thirty nine? Ohyeah, well that's thirty nine and
a half. But the number that, yeah, the magic numbers thirty seven.
Correct. I'm telling you just youcan go through every single game so
long as it's thirty seven or higher, right, Like I wouldn't do this,
and you may not find many.I'm looking right now, thirty eight

(01:11:14):
and a half Commanders, Brown's thirtyseven, Broncos Cardinals. Okay, so
depending on where you look, youhave three games here, three games here.
I would blindly same game parlay dogand under anything thirty seven or higher,
and just just do that, andjust because every book's gonna have the
same game parlay created for them whereit's like money line or take the points.

(01:11:39):
Who cares if it's two and ahalf, who cares if it's one.
No key numbers matter. In thepreseason, people are doing crazy stuff.
So take the points and same gameparlay under anything thirty seven or higher.
That's the strategy. Now. Nowweek three is gonna change, but
I would do that at least forthe first two weeks. Oh, we'll

(01:12:00):
keep an eye on, We'll danand I'll talk more about that when we
come back and put this show tobed Eton. Thanks so much, buddy.
You got a brother see a guitonChander, Odd, chopper and sarcastic.
We will chat with him again soonerthan a month or two months or
whatever it's been. I promise youthat when we come back, we will
rap need event about bad bets.You've come to the right place. Tell

(01:12:23):
us about it. Call six oneseven two six six six eight six at
six one seven two six six sixeight six eight, or if you're listening
on the iHeartRadio app, use theTalkback Button The Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
We'll be right back after this onw RKO. It's time to put this

(01:12:43):
show to bed with my pillow.We're not just putting this show to bed.
We're putting this week to bed.And I hope, oh do.
I hope with some successful bets.Obviously we've given you the bank will repair.
We have given you the People's Parlay. If you missed anything, go

(01:13:06):
on back, check out the podcast, relive it, love it, enjoy
it. Place the bets, andI hope we all get to cash together.
So, as Dan noted, andI I was looking to during the
break FanDuel to place that parlay wasI think three forty something. It was

(01:13:28):
up around three seventy something on onWhy am I blanking on the book on
Fanatics and as Dan noted, plusthree ninety four the best spot over on
DraftKings. So place that People's Parlay. It's it's been a little wild and
since we have done a sub fourhundred parlay. But yeah, whatever,

(01:13:49):
like we need to win. That'swhy I went with June. Yeah,
exactly. We needed so bad,so heck if we could hit a plus
two hundred parlay. I'd be veryhappy if it wasn't even let's hit our
bank roll repairs, please, justanything. We gotta put the bad bets
to bed atam. Yes, that'sthat's very much what we need to do.
Are you going to uh? Iknow you don't feel like being all

(01:14:12):
all cavalier with your bank roll atthe moment, but are are you going
to follow the trend of what Atonwas talking about of of same game parlaying
unders and dogs. If you guyswant some money tomorrow, If you guys
want me some money tomorrow, sureon Saturday, I'll do it. Yeah,
but right now, no, it'sit's it's a little tight. Oh
wait, hang on, I'm punchingin our parlay on bet MGM right now.
But hang on, I gotta clearwhat it looks like. Yeah,

(01:14:33):
I gotta clear out some other linesthere that I had on there. Sure,
Oh, let's see. You justgotta go to NFL. What do
we got? I'm just looking atsome of these preseason options for dogs and
unders under thirty seven, So youcould take the Bucks and Steelers with an
under you have thirty nine is thetotal in the Browns Commanders game, So

(01:14:57):
you could go Washington and uh andthe under in that one. The Broncos,
Cardinals are hugging that line. Titans, Bears are right at the thirty
seven you can go under Bill's Coltsis another one. Jets, Panthers as
well, Jaguars, Cowboys are atthirty seven. Others are are subdect number.
So it's uh, yeah, Imean that that really is according to

(01:15:19):
Raybon anyway, the magic number.I'd like to get him on the show
talk about that a little bit.Maybe next week we can effort that,
but definitely, and I got plusthree eighty one on MGM. So DraftKings
is the place to play it rightnow remains the spot, Yes it does,
so as as I didn't end updoing it. I thought about doing
a Red Sox Patriots, you knowBoston money line parlay for today. Good

(01:15:45):
thing I didn't, obviously, becausePats didn't hold up their end of the
bargain while the Red Sox did win. But what are you looking at for
Friday? For Friday? So obviouslywe got Christale coming back whenever, whenever
those props come out for him,I'll definitely be glancing through there. Surprisingly,
the Nationals, the Nationals Athletics,and Athletics are playing each other,
so that the only reason to watchthat game is if you've got some action
on it. But you can getthe Nationals to beat Oakland at home at

(01:16:10):
minus one oh eight, so nota bad number there to just go against
Oakland anyway. A couple other games. Corbyn Burns is on the mound from
Milwaukee. That was going to bemy original parlay pick, but it's up
to minus one seventy five now,so not much value there at all.
Austin Gomber's on the mound for Colorado, so any of those bats in the
Dodger lineup that smash left handed pitchingwill definitely be taking a look at them

(01:16:31):
tomorrow night. And interesting spot forthe Giants at home too. They do
hit right, he's very well athome. They're going against Texas and John
Gray, so that's interesting too.We got a wrap here at a couple
of moments, but you're gonna heara lot more from Dan because Monday I'm
at a wedding. I am unavailable, and so it is going to be
Dan and whomever his guests are continuingour NFL preview. I'm not sure about

(01:16:55):
that, Adam, No, No, that's still TVD okay, ye about
you doing the show or about youdoing the NFL preview? No? About
the show? Okay? All right, Well it remains to be seen.
So hopefully we will have a showthat will be heard by all of you
on Monday. And if we don't, I guarantee we'll be here with you
on Tuesday. So it remains influx. Nevertheless, e J. Pacheco,

(01:17:17):
his days are winding down with usand we will celebrate him as well
as all of you. Rate reviewof the podcast, Subscribe to it The
Gambler with Adam Kaufman, Seek itout, find it Apple, Spotify,
the iHeartMedia website, Pandora, whereverit is. We thank you so much.
We thank John mckeckney, We thankAton Shander, and we thank you
and the Red Sox we're actually winninga game and the Patriots just for you

(01:17:39):
know, being here. We'll talkto you again next week and enjoy the
weekend, happy betting. For thebest night's sleep you've ever had, go
to Mike Pillow dot com and usethe code Gambler. You've been listening to
The Gambler with Adam Kaufman on sixeighty w r KO Boston's first and only
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(01:18:03):
Listen on demand,