Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
There was a piece in National Reviewthat sums it all up. It was
written by Michael Brennan Doherty, andI think it's very straightforward and its logic
is fairly unassailable. President Biden needsto resign. He needs to resign,
not in a I'm a conservative partisanand you know he needs to resign,
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as just kind of a basic neutralprinciple that the United States needs to be
governed by a president who is withit, who is mentally with it enough
to handle the job. And themore I was reading this piece from Doherty,
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I think it's basically unassailably true.And I'm also now reading I think
there was a big momentum shift overthe course of yesterday. A lot of
stuff seems to be changing as pollingnumbers come out post Biden's debate performance,
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and Democrats, I think are nowin a full scale panic. Puck News
has leaked some internal Democrat polling whichshows basically that Trump is getting to an
average of a two percent bump inevery single battleground state post debate, an
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average of about a two percent bump, and two percent doesn't sound like a
lot, but when you get atwo percent bump in every single state,
and it's at this time like thisisn't nineteen eighty anymore. The electorate in
the United States is a lot morestatic than it was in the eighties.
You're not going to see the kindsof massive swings like you had with Reagan
or with Nixon, where you know, Reagan won forty nine out of fifty
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states and Nixon won like, youknow, forty seven out of it,
whatever it was, they had thesemassive landslide victories. The electorate is not
that flexible. No Republican's ever gonnawin California. You're not gonna see that
kind of shift. But a twopercent shift as a result, a two
percent shift is huge. This leakedinternal polling. Let me just read to
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you the states where Trump is nowleading. Trump leading in New Mexico,
Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin,the second district of Nebraska, Michigan up
by almost seven Pennsylvania up by sevenpoint three percent, Nevada, Arizona,
Georgia, North Carolina. Biden isbarely hanging on by point two percent in
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Maine, point four percent in Minnesota, a state so liberal that they didn't
even vote for Ronald Reagan, andBiden is only winning in Colorado by one
point nine percent. If the electionwere held today and these poll numbers were
accurate, Donald Trump would win overthree hundred Electoral College votes. He would
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bury Joe Biden. There's also pollingdata coming out now indicating the thing that
would be the real pivot point forDemocrats, chiefly, Joe Biden is pulling
worse against Donald Trump in some polls, in some instances, pulling worse against
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Donald Trump than Kamala Harris's because thatwas always the rea. I am sure
why didn't Democrats push for Biden toleave earlier? God knows, they all
knew the truth. Everyone in theWhite House knew any of the sort of
powers that be, powers whoever theyare. And by the way, I'm
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not as convinced that there is adefinite, clear cabal of puppet masters holding
the strings. I don't think thatthat is actually clear. I think there
are people who can exercise influence onJoe Biden, but the fact is he
has this constitutional role, he hasthis electoral role now, and they can't
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get him to leave it unless hedecides to leave. I think there's a
way to convince him to drop out, but you got to convince him he
actually does have to make this decision. But I think these power brokers would
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have tried to get him to sitout earlier if they thought that Kamala Harris
could do a better job. Andforever everyone has assumed that Kamala Harris is
such a train wreck that they'd ratherroll the dice with eighty one year old
obviously failing Joe Biden rather than her. If he's becoming those such a walking
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train wreck, and by the way, he's compounding his train wreckitude. Yesterday,
he has some fundraiser in Virginia wherehe says to the crowd, one
that he almost fell asleep during thedebate, and two it was because he
had, Oh, I hadn't listenedto my staff, and I've been traveling
through fifteen different time zones. Bidenhadn't traveled for like two weeks. He
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had been in Washington or Camp Davidfor the last two weeks. He hadn't
been abroad, and here he isat this Virginia fundraiser claiming that he had
just been traveling abroad, going throughfifteen time zones, and he was so
exhausted and that's why he fell asleepon the debates. Almost fell asleep on
the debate stage. He doesn't knowwhat day it is, he doesn't know
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where he is, so he's likehe's adding more logs to the fire.
I think he's going to drop out. I think he's going to By this
time next week, I think hewill have dropped out. And I think
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it kind of has to be KamalaHarris. Has to be Kamala Harris kind
of for a couple for a gazilliondifferent reasons. First of all, I
think for the internal credibility of theDemocratic Party. If Biden goes out and
says, listen, I'm dropping outof this race. You know, I've
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done what I can for my country, and I'm so grateful for the opportunity
to serve. But over time,you know, gradually, over the last
several months, I think my strengthhas become less and less, and I
think it's time for a new generation. So if Biden says he's going to
drop I think it would be hardfor him to drop out of the race
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but not resign the presidency. Becauseif you're saying I don't have the vigor
for a presidential campaign to run iteffectively, you're also saying I don't have
the vigor to be president anymore,because you know, it's more difficult than
campaigning, or should be more difficultthan campaigning being president. I think he
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kind of needs to drop out.If he's gonna bend to these he needs
to resign his office. So Ithink if Brighton drops out of the race,
he kind of also has to resign. In which case, what happens
Kamala Harris becomes the first female presidentof the United States of America and becomes
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the incumbent. How can the Democratsanyone else other than her once she's the
president. It's one thing to passover a vice president. It's another thing
to pass over thus sitting president.If he or she wants to run for
reelection. No one's ever unseated someonelike that. How do you even do
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it? Secondly, if Biden dropsout and says, well, I'm not
gonna throw my weight behind any one, Personal'll leave that to the Democratic delegates
at the convention, I release allmy delegates from the obligation to vote for
me at the convention. Well,what a huge indictment that is of Harris,
That in itself is a tilting ofthe scales. It's him saying that
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my own hand picked vice president isso inept, I'm not even gonna endorse
her. This person that I youknow, they've made these phony blooney claims
that they're so tight. I mean, that's ridiculous. And lastly, it's
money. Okay, the Biden campaignhas about two hundred four forty million dollars
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cash on hand. They raised onehundred and sixty million dollars just in June.
That money went to the Biden Harriscampaign. So the only you can't
just flim flam zip that money.You know, if if a Gavin Newsom
for President campaign just kind of popsup, you can't just flim flam zipzapp
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that money over to him. Theonly person who can zipzapp inherit that money,
if you will, is Kamala Harris. If Biden drops out, Kamala
Harris gets that money. So unlessDemocrats think that getting rid of her and
replacing her with you know, Godknows who, Gavin Newsom or this person
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or that person, or beat budajitjor Gretchen Whitmer or whoever, unless they
think it's worth two hundred forty milliondollars to them, blowing two hundred forty
million dollars. Then I think yougotta go with Harris. There's also the
optics of an African American woman.Are you gonna pass her over for lily
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white male Gavin Newsom? Don't thinkthat's gonna sit well with anybody, right,
So it kind of has to beher. And again, especially if
Biden also resigns the presidency, it'sgonna it has to be Harris. There's
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no other way. There really justis not another way forward. And then
we just have to deal with thequestion. It seems like, now,
you know, I saw this storyabout h quote private donor, call that
a bunch of Democrat donors from thisone super Pac had with James Carville,
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Paul Begala, and and Dmitri Melhorn, who's another kind of Democrat strategist advisor
type. And the spectrum of opinionbetween those three I think represents kind of
the dilemma for Democrats. You haveyou have Carville saying, well, why
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not get into another option. Letlet push the Biden people say you're gonna
close your wallets until they get anotheroption, basically encouraging the donors to push
on this. Paul Bagala, whois sort of staying neutral and saying,
nah, I don't think we shouldpush push for I don't think we should
push for Biden to get out.He wasn't wanting to commit to that,
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but then Dmitri Melhorne was saying,listen, people are more scared of a
live Kamala Harris than they are ofa dead, decrepit Joe Biden. And
this is the pickle Democrats find themselvesin. Is that? Yeah, there's
some polling now indicating that maybe Harrisdoes a little better than Biden. She's
still wildly unpopular her. You know, if Biden's favorability ratings are have been
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sort of hovering in the high thirties, low forties, since the debate,
they've dropped to kind of the midthirties. Harris's favorability rating is down at
like twenty nine percent. She's shewould be one of the most unpopular presidential
candidates of all time by these metricsthat we've used in modern American polling.
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But I think the basics here areBiden needs to drop out at the very
least for the safety of the country. Well and more of that when we
return. This is the John GirardiShow on power talk. Well, folks,
here's what I think is going tohappen. I think, you know,
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I see President Biden's meeting with somegovernors today. I think at some
point a phone call happens, azoom call happens, and in person meeting
happens, and it probably involves somecombo of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi,
Chuck Schumer, maybe some big timedonors, maybe Ron Klain, Biden's former
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chief of staff who's still very heavilyinvolved clearly with the administration. They sit
down with Biden and they just laythis out for him. You need to
step back. Well, appreciate you, Appreciate the fact that you won the
twenty twenty election. Appreciate your careerservice in the Senate, the VP thing
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where you know, the Democrat conventionin August, it's gonna be Joe Biden.
It's gonna be a celebration of JoeBiden. All things. Joe,
You're great, you're wonderful. Weappreciate you. But if you don't drop
out, the donors are all cuttingoff their funding and it's going to be
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ugly and you're just not gonna win. And maybe we'll, you know,
we'll back you, But the donorsare closing their wallets, and it's over,
and you're gonna go down losing toDonald Trump, and your legacy is
going to get tarnished. Get outnow, Get out now. While you
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can be the bigger man. Giveus a positive bump. Kamala Harris can
have that new shiny car smell.Give her a little bump so that she
can effectively run this race. Butyou gotta go. You've got to go.
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And at some point, basically noDemocrat has wanted to be the first
person to have to say that toBiden. But eventually, as the gaffs
keep coming, it's either going tohappen this week or if Biden has one
more significant gaff. I think ithappens either this week or if Biden has
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one more significant gaf or you know, it could happen this week if the
donors just make it clear we're notspending another dollar on this campaign. I
mean, the donors can end thisreally quick. If there's one group that
can really end it, it's thedonor class. And right now it's clear
they are massively worried because none ofthese guys like losing. They don't like
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giving gazillions of dollars to things thatdon't win. So if Democrats are gonna
expect these people to open their walletsand pony up all this money, and
Pelosi can be their voice, youknow, Obama and Pelosi can be their
voice. So I think it's eithergoing to be this week or if Biden
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has one more big gaff he's gone. All right. When we return,
I want to talk about if Trumpwins, what are we going to do
with tax cuts? Next on TheJohn Girardi Show. One of the interesting
things about this current sort of Trumpera of American politics is I think how
a lot of conservatives, even ifthey're not super hardcore social conservatives, are
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looking much more a scance at corporateAmerica. I think a lot of conservatives
look at corporate America, which theRepublican Party traditionally loved, and the Republican
Party traditionally has always been you know, portrayed and hit as the party a
big business and everything the Republicans didwas a lot of what the Republicans did
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was useful to big business. AndI think Trump is actually a little bit
more you know, Trump has representeda bit of a shift here, but
still what was the first, youknow, kind of signature thing accomplished by
the Trump administration in twenty seventeen,well as a big old tax cut,
including a big time corporate tax cut, which Trump, as a corporate executive,
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understood the benefit to companies like hisand worked to get that pass lowered
the corporate tax rate to twenty onepercent. So in twenty twenty five,
this is going to become an issueagain because the twenty seventeen tax cuts that
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Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congressat the time passed. The twenty seventeen
tax cuts are about to sunset,and basically it was only an eight year
provision and Congress needs to figure outwhat it's going to do. So the
Trump campaign is talking about wanting tofurther cut the corporate tax rate. That
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they want to cut the corporate taxrate from twenty one percent where it currently
is percent and Trump initially when hewas in office, he cut the corporate
tax rate from thirty five percent totwenty one percent, so apparently he wants
to further lower it, but mostimportantly to extend the Trump tax cuts.
I saw this really interesting piece fromSemaphore s Emafo wars Kind of online newsletter
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and written by Joseph Zibalos Roig HouseRepublican support grows for corporate tax increase,
threatening a key part of Trump's economiclegacy. Up to ten Republican House lawmakers
are open to increasing the corporate taxrate, a senior GOP member estimated,
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possibly threatening Donald Trump's future plans ifhe is re elected. Trump's twenty seventeen
tax cuts lowered the corporate tax ratefrom thirty five percent to twenty one percent,
a move hailed by businesses, butthat levy, along with a host
of other lower rates, is setto expire at the end of twenty twenty
five, and some Republicans are bulkingat the four point five trillion dollar price
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tag of extending them, setting upa major policy fight for the next president.
So basically, the idea is,if you set the corporate tax rate
at thirty five percent, you're goingto get four point five trillion dollars more
in revenue over a certain timeframe thanif you set them at twenty one percent.
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If Republicans manage to retain control ofthe House in November, they are
likely to have a thin majority,making every vote count, especially on major
policy issues like the future of Trump'stax cuts. The ex president, boosted
by Joe Biden's poor debate performance lastweek, also wants to lower the corporate
rate slightly further to twenty percent ifhe retakes the White House. Representative Chip
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Roy, a prominent member of thehard right Freedom Caucus, is emerging as
a skeptic of corporate America an additionalbusiness TAXI. When asked by Semaphore if
his views were widespread among GOP colleagues, where I responded, it's not small
in may ways and means. ChairJason Smith said some GOP members had approached
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him asking why a corporate rate increasewasn't a corporate rate increase wasn't on the
table for the House passed seventy eightbillion dollar tax package. I just don't
think we ought to rubber stamp.This isn't twenty seventeen anymore. This is
twenty twenty four. Roy told Semaphoreearlier. We need to come up with
a tax policy that's holistic and everythingshould be on the table. There's nothing
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sacrosanct about twenty one percent. TheK Street K Street, which is the
street in Washington that has a lotof offices for different lobbying entities K Street
shouldn't decide this. The growing oppositionreflects how much the US fiscal picture has
changed since Trump's tax cuts were enactedin twenty seventeen. The national debt has
soared to thirty four trillion, Inflationhas become a stubborn feature of the US
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economy, and the Federal Reserve hasrapidly raised interest rates to stamp out high
prices, rendering interest payments on thedebt near a record high. So this
this is a four point five trilliondollar decision. Do we extend the Trump
tax cuts? Now that there area lot of aspects of the Trump tax
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cuts that aren't dealing with the corporatetax rate. There's the child tax credit
was expanded under Trump, a lotof the standard deduction I think got expanded
under Trump. A lot of stuffthat impacts and benefits middle class, middle
mid level income earners like me.A lot of that stuff is on the
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table, and I find it unlikelythat Democrats, even that Democrats would be
voting to let those measures sunset.But I do think it raises a really
interesting question. As you know,Biden and Biden obviously looking quite weak right
now, Trump looking quite strong.Right now, what does Trump want to
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do when it comes to tax policyand why should we work our butts off
as Republicans to benefit corporate America.Look, corporate America over the last eight
years really revealed its face. EveryJune, we see it. Major major
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corporations pledge allegiance not to the flagof the United States of America. They
pledge allegiance to the Pride flag.And they are fully committed to the panoply
of left wing social positions that weso despise. After the Dobbs decision was
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passed in twenty twenty two, andyou had states like Texas and others limiting
abortion, all of these major corporationswith with some you know, noteworthy exceptions,
but most of these major corporations werepledging that they would fly their employees
from Texas to California so that theycould go get abortions. And they made
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it very clear. You know,this is one aspect of the abortion debate.
It's very clear that abortion is verymuch in the best interests of big
time corporate America. Why well,because you know, it's a lot cheaper
than paying an employee for maternity leaveand holding an employee spot open while she's
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out on maternity leave. You know, it's a lot cheaper than that abortion.
It's cheaper to flying employee out toCalifornia so she can have an abortion
than it is to give her maternityleave. So these companies pretend like they're
woke, pretend like they're these sociallyliberal things, but what they're doing is
for money. They're doing this LGBTstuff to boost up their ESG scores and
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all these different things so that investorswill keep investing, so that big time
corporate entities, big time corporate investorswill keep investing. And this is just
what makes me, as a socialconservative voter, just sort of frustrated at
the Republican economic agenda, as youknow, being of a piece with its
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social agenda. It was always kindof understood that the Republican Party consisted of
a three legged stool. The threelegged school stool was anti communist, vigorous
military posture, okay, an anticommon and this emanated from the Cold War.
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This is the Reagan era. Thisis the Reagan era three legged stool.
You had anti communist, vigorous,pro military, strong national defense.
So that was one leg of thestool. Then you had a vigorously pro
capitalist, pro business economic vision.That was the second leg of the stool,
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And the third leg of the stool, the leg that they cared the
least about, because it yielded themthe least amount of money, was social
conservatism. Social conservatism which doesn't makeanyone any money. The military stuff that
makes some people a lot of money. That money is going to contractors,
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and that makes people money. Fiscalconservatism capitalists, low taxes, that makes
people money. Why do you thinkRepublicans have always sort of betrayed us on
social conservative issues? Well, becauseit Why would it be the biggest priority.
It's not the biggest amount. Butwhat do you need the social conservatives
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for? You need them for theirvotes. That's what you need them for.
A lot of pro lifers who vote, a lot of pro lifers who
would crawl over they are your crawlover broken glass, most committed, most
dedicated voters. Oddly enough, thevoters you can most bank on to actually
come out to vote for you arethe ones that you feel the least compunction
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about betraying. Again and again andagain and again. So as time has
gone on, that Reagan three leggedstool of conservatism model I think is becoming
more and more obsolete. When weapply this, you know, Cold War
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style approach to defense spending and militaryaggressiveness to a post Cold War world.
What do we get, Well,we get a bunch of idiotic military adventurism
in the Middle East that results ina bunch of Americans dying, hundreds of
thousands of Iraqis and Afghani's dying tono great outcomes. And you have and
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now what we're doing is we're pumpingtens of billions. I think we're approaching
one hundred billion dollars of funding toUkraine, billions and billions going to Israel
for their military adventures. As ifthen we're not involved. Really, I
feel like any vote Congress makes tofund another country that's at war, we
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should call it. We are votingon a declaration of proxy war, because
that's what we're doing. And youare committing yourself to being involved in a
conflict. Even if you're not sendingmen over, you're sending stuff over that
gets you involved anyway. This aggressivemilitary attitude in a post Cold War world,
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I think has just led to allkinds of negative entanglements for the United
States. So I think that andis not very popular. I think foreign
military intervention on the part of theUnited States, the American people have no
stomach for another war. That's whyBiden. I think that's why they keep
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saying, there's this red line.Well, we won't send actually any American
boys out to Ukraine, will youdamn well better not? And certainly within
Republican circles, we're sick of evensending funding more and more. Republicans don't
even want to send funding, moreand more funding to Ukraine, which is
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seemingly a bottomless pit where I'm notsure that at this point that there is
any hope for any kind of actualvictory. What is victory in the context
of your green I don't know.So the military leg of the stool seems
a little obsolete, and also Iwould say the pro business economics side of
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it is a little obsolete. Whyshould we, as Republican voters be pledging
allegiance to Ronald Reagan tax cuts todayfor companies that aggressively held hands with Bill
Clinton and Barack Oba. Bill Clintonand George W. Bush and Barack Obama,
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for an economy that aggressively shipped moreand more and more American jobs overseas,
for American corporations that fully stab conservativesin the back by brace this full
panoply of left wing causes, manyof which I think the whole DEI concept,
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the whole equity concept, violates theCivil Rights Act by flatly giving preference
to certain racial groups over others.I don't understand why I should feel as
a Republican voter. Yes, weneed to cut the corporate tax rates,
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and yeah, maybe you can makesome arguments with me about Look, you
cut the corporate tax rate, thebenefit passes on to the consumer, that
passes on to the average Joe.Okay, maybe make some arguments like that.
But if these corporations want Republicans togive them a hand every ten years
or so with a big, fatcorporate tax cut, then maybe they we
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need to start putting some expectations onthem to toe the line. Maybe we
put some expectations on Hey, you'renot eligible for this kind a large s
if you practice, if you areengaged in this kind of DEI stuff,
if you're blah blah blah blah blahblah blah. This is are some ways
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of look if you want, ifyou want to have a big fat corporate
tax guy. You're not going tostab us in the back on the basis
of social issues, and I'm heartenedto see Chip Roy and others sort of
taking that kind of a different approach. When we return, a happy Fourth
of July to all of you,and a couple of thoughts from my dad.
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That's next on the John Girardi Show. Every holiday that comes around.
Since my dad passed away in March, I've sort of felt his absence more
and more, but it hasn't beenquite as sad, I guess as I
expected. It's it's more sort ofgratitude for him and gratitude for the impact
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he had on my life. Forthose who didn't know him, my dad's
doctor Joe Girardi. He was orthmedicsurgeon at Valied Children's Hospital for many years.
My mom actually just got back froma trip to Dallas, Texas.
My dad had been done his fellowship, a surgical fellowship at the Texas Scottish
Rite Hospital for Crippled Children. It'sa big, really great children's hospital in
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Dallas, Texas, where he hadtrained under Tony Herring, who is one
of the finest orthropedic surgeons in theUnited States of America and who was sort
of the anchor of that program atScottish Rite Hospital in Texas in Dallas,
and they have a gathering for alltheir fellows every year. And both my
dad and his dearest friend from hisyear and fellowship, this doctor from Michigan
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named doctor Lorie Carroll, had bothdied within about a year of each other,
both from cancer, and so theyhad a memorial plaque to the two
of them, and my mom gotto attend. She was friends with Lori,
and they had this wonderful ceremony andtwo of my brothers got to attend.
It was really a great thing andto hear to sort of hear the
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legacy of what my dad had accomplished. From what my dad had accomplished in
the city of Fresno. He wasthe second orthopedic surgeon ever at Valley Children's
Hospital, and he would go onto lead the department and help expanded the
(33:30):
orthopedic department at Valley Children's Hospital Ithink now has I think something like seven
or eight doctors and is one ofthe finest orthopedic departments, one of the
finest pediatric orthopedic departments in the country. And he just has a lot to
be proud of. In going throughmy dad's stuff, I talked about this
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a little on the show. Thewhole Paco Balderama story made me think of
it, and I found on hisold laptop some PowerPoint slides this like continuing
education lecture my dad would give atthe hospital where it was this thing about
physician wellness. So my dad hadhad several positions within the hospital kind of
(34:12):
over disciplinary and kind of HR stufffor other doctors. So doctors are working
at the hospital part of practice groups, but sometimes the hospital has to have
oversight over those doctors make sure thatthey're doing their job right and if they're
not, they have a certain kindof disciplinary role and my dad would was
the point person for the hospital atdifferent times over his career in different spheres.
(34:37):
Was at times the point person foroverseeing disciplinary things for doctors. So
if you had a doctor who was, you know, showing up to work
drunk or was abusing drugs or doingsomething that my dad had to step in
and have, you know, interveneand do all the necessary kind of HR
things. And so my dad gotto see a lot of He got to
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see some doctors at bad points intheir life and got to sort of see
what made for happy professionals successful professionals, and what made for unhappy and unsuccessful
professionals. And he had this kindof physician well inness lecture where he talked
about kind of keeping the main thingsin life, your main things. Even
(35:28):
one of the things he was talkingabout was with money. How do doctors
get in trouble with money? Well, they get in trouble with money by
thinking they're too smart, thinking they'resmarter than they are, thinking they're too
clever by half. And my dadsort of made the point like, you
know, look, the way thatyou're good as a doctor at making money
is by being a doctor. It'snot by flipping houses or being a day
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trader. So don't do those things. You're not good at that stuff.
You didn't go to school for allthese years for that. Make the main
things in your life, the mainthings your faith, being with your family,
your marriage. I mean, mydad would would see a lot of
these doctors who just worked themselves sohard that they wound to be in divorced
(36:13):
or they were chasing around other people. And it even you know, thinking
about like the Paco Balderama case forexample, the fact that he was cheating
on his wife for so many years, it really makes me start to question,
well, how hard was he reallyworking as police chief? How well
(36:34):
was he really doing if in thatmajor thing in his life he was fooling
around and screwing around and wasting expendinghis energy and time. I mean,
you only have a certain quantum ofenergy. I've thought about that, you
know, I've been married eleven yearsnow, and I've thought I don't have
(36:58):
the time or energy, let alonethe will to cheat on my wife.
I just cannot imagine what an enormousdrain it would be on my energy,
my capacities, my time, howat my worry level, my stress levels,
Like, what a drain that wouldbe. And beyond the obvious huge
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moral wrongs of it, it wouldalso be a thing of you know,
why are you expending and frittering awayyour energies in these things? So for
this fourth of July, as Ilook out on the landscape, hey,
maybe some of you, you know, if we just had wedding season May
and June into the summer, alot of you guys getting started being married,
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Maybe some of you young people justgetting started in your careers. Keep
the main things, the main thing, Be grateful for what you have and
expend your energies on your main things. Don't fritter yourself away chasing things that
aren't the main things anyway. It'skind of a general life lesson from my
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dad, but it's one I've beenthinking about a lot lately. That'll do
it for John Girardi Show. We'llsee ayall next time on Power Talk