As Alperen Sengun leads 7-4 start, should Houston explore a Giannis trade?

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven ninety.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
The Logger Line.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
It's proudly served to you by car Box, Clutch City
Lagger It is God Oh Yeah, Red Nation. Get Ready, Ready,
Get Ready.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
The lagger Line starts now. Welcome aboard, Welcome back to
another new episode of The Logger Line. Again, serve to
you courtesy of Clutch to the lager of Carback Brewery.
I'm Ben Dubouche, her host editor of USA Today's Rocket Squire,

(00:48):
a contributor to Sports Talks seven ninety, official flagship radio
station of your Houston Rockets. I'm joined again by Powo Alves,
our co hosting producer out of Portugal. You can follow
him on Twitter, slash x at powow Alves, NBA me
at Ben Dubo's We're Chatting Today. On Wednesday, November thirteenth,
Rockets are back at action tonight for the first of
two straight home games against the LA Clippers, James Harden

(01:11):
leading the way. Also the return of redacted that's Kevin
Porter Junior to Houston for the first time since leaving
the organization about a year ago. The second one of
those two games against the Clippers on Friday night that
will also be the opening game of group stage play
for the NBA Cup. Both of those games will obviously
count towards the regular season as well, and as far

(01:31):
as the regular season, let's be honest, there's a lot
to like here. The Rockets are currently seven to four
on the year. They're in the number five spot in
the Western Conference. They've got the number seven net rating,
they're number three on defense, number sixteen on offense. We
said last week when we were recording that there was
a lot underneath the hood to be encouraged by, even

(01:53):
though the Rockets were barely above five hundred and four
and three at the time, and we said that if
those trends continued, they should and needed to start putting
some distance between themselves in five hundred during what's a
fairly manageable portion of the schedule. Good news is if
they've done exactly that, they've won three or four over
the past week since we recorded, they've won six of

(02:13):
their last eight. Overall, they're now three games over five hundred,
and the only loss was on the road to a
really good Oklahoma City team. Again a lot to like,
and I think they should be favored of both of
these games against the Clippers. Although the Clips are above
five hundred themselves, they do have James Harden, so it
shouldn't come as a shock if they get one of
those two games. To be, as long as the Rockets

(02:34):
get a split and they come out of this week
with a winning home stant. They already won the opener
Monday against Washington. That's the opener over three game homestand
if you come out with a winning home stand and
at least three games over five hundred, I think we
should feel pretty good about things. So as far as
today's show, it's going to be a little bit different.

Speaker 3 (02:50):
Here.

Speaker 2 (02:51):
Off the top, we are going to talk micro as
far as what we've learned the last few games since
we last recorded, but for most of our show we're
going to be talking macro and basically make this artificial
Giannis Ideta Kompo trade season spectacular because the whispers have
been out there for a while, and now with the
Bucks starting two of eight or two and eight and

(03:11):
near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, I think
we've gotten to a point to where it would be
foolish if we didn't at least acknowledge the elephant in
the room. Keep in mind, Giannis turns thirty years old
next month. The Bucks have got an aging roster around him,
and they don't really have the financial flexibility or trade
assets to really reshape that roster. It's got tons of

(03:32):
veterans Chris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Damian Lillard. If they are
on the downhill side, there's not a whole lot they
can do to change that. And here in Houston we
know all too well what that can mean, because on paper,
it looks kind of similar to the situation the Rockets
found themselves in this time four years ago with a
thirty year old James Hart. And it's not just us speculating.

(03:54):
Bill Simmons is the latest national voice over at the
Ring or his latest body actually listed both the Rockets
and then as the two teams that he thinks would
be the front runners for Yannis on the trade market
if he becomes available. So there's definitely a lot to
unpack as far as the various considerations at play and
whether rafel Stone should or shouldn't go down that road.
We'll get into that, and quite frankly, this will probably

(04:17):
be one of our longer episodes because there's a lot
to get into. But I want to lead off by
talking about what's actually happening on the court these days
at Toti Center and again tonight when the Rockets tip
off against the Clippers, because that part is not speculative,
the Yannist stuff. It's intriguing. We know the Rockets could
use a consolidation trade. They have the assets, We've talked
about it. The question for this team do they have

(04:38):
or will they be able to develop the alpha on
a championship team from this course seven or do they
have to go externally to get it. That's where a
big trade for a yacht is to come into play.
You've also speculated about guys such as Devin Booker and
Donovan Mitchell the last few months. All of that can
wait until the trade deadline and more than likely next offseason.

(04:59):
For the most part, I think our focus should be
on what's happening on the court right now, because this
is a good basketball team as is. Are they a
championship contending team? Probably not, but seven and four there's
a lot to like here, even with a relatively weak schedule.
I don't think there's any Rockets fan, if you had

(05:20):
been offered a deal three weeks ago when the regular
season was tipping off on October twenty third, Hey, after
eleven games, would you take seven and four coming off
a forty one and forty one year with all these
young pieces and trying to integrate Tarry Easton and Steven Adams,
or would you play out the string in hopes that
maybe your game or two better than seven and four,
but also you obviously could be worse. I think pretty

(05:43):
much all of us would have taken seven and four
when you consider where the Rockets are as an organization.
So again, that's not to say there's isn't a case
for Giannis or a bigger move down the line.

Speaker 4 (05:53):
There is.

Speaker 2 (05:54):
I don't think this team is a championship contender just yet,
but the trajectory overall is very good, and there's a
lot to like these days about what's going on on
the court at two year Center. So let's start by
putting the initial focus on the product itself, especially now
that we're in season. The stuff with you, honis the
trademarket that's likely months or even years away. So Paolo,

(06:17):
I'll let you deliver the opening monologue if you will
on this. I've been doing it the last couple of episodes,
so I'll let you start off as far as general observations.
What has stood out to you since our last pot
what's your state of the rockets on this Wednesday, November thirteen.

Speaker 4 (06:32):
Yeah, I think it's I mean, I'm not going to
be breaking any news here where that I think the
biggest storyline has to be. I mean, I guess I'll
put it into two because now the leaf payting when
he also becomes a Lassive storyline, whatever happens with him.
But I'll start with a Benatari. It's it's just it's
just in same levels of activity. It's like listen steals
this steals and blogs, or like the counting stats right

(06:56):
that you that you easily connect defense. But it's not
that it's it's that they convert, like the pressure that
they get to actual turnovers and two actual block shots
so much more often than your typical you know, defensive specialists.
And it's not like they're selling out for for these
you know, insane stats. It's it's that they play good defense,

(07:18):
they pressure the ball, and they combine. It's actually very
unique in a way that they combine the physical tools
with the with the the additude necessary to play that
style of basketball, with the actual skill to do it
without foul. And I think that's you know, obviously, it's

(07:39):
twin said of the NBA is trying to love more physicality,
and that obviously helps the way the team wants to play.
But it's just insane how much different different the game become,
especially if to a team that you know struggles with
half guard offense. I mean, you probably you would abably
be right in saying that without authorshiping, the team has
no halfgar offense. I mean Jaillen Green. I know we're

(08:00):
talking about it later, but Kian Grin has regressed back
to the worst truth shooting of his career. So far
this season, He's a at like fifty two percent. And
I know you can look at it and say, hey,
the defence has improved and in the clutch he's come through,
But that might be. This point remains, which is half

(08:21):
part offense doesn't work, and a lot of the ways
that we are staying in these games and a lot
of the ways that we're you know, holding leads in
these games, is because we are generating a lot of
offense just based off of how good our defense is,
especially when those guys are on, and how they can
how they can convert a good defense through you know,

(08:41):
seventeen second of a possession or sometimes that earlier on
into actual turnovers. And it's I think it's win them
to the rockets and losing drunkets to it to a
lot of teams. And now this in the NBA with
the new I guess loser officiating, ball pressure seems to
be you know, the way to go on defense. So
getting ballhawks and and and being you know, all over

(09:03):
your opponent all the time seems to be the way
because you the your typical you know, kind of offensive
like one man shows are no longer as mechanical. I guess.
I guess I've quite mechanical. And when when catereraing off
and see if you know what they were what I

(09:24):
mean I mean, when we have James Hardan, it was
very easy. You know, the same thing worked every single time.
And if you and if you will pressure a lot,
James will has been seemingly quick to take the pass
out of the double team or in other cases you
would just punish you anyways and go through you, and
and take that contact a little bit, he'd get the goal. Obviously,
Tess Curry, an entire warrior system made it for you

(09:47):
to because of all the costop movement for you to
be as physical without being called for away from the
play foul and stuff like that. But I think all
in all, we're shifting into, I think, a different era
of the n b A and these guys are just
making the most out of it. And if you guys
remember back before the season and throughout the history of

(10:08):
this podcast, I've always said that the tor reason is,
if not the most, the second most important player on
this team, and he's showing it. And not only that.
I guess everybody will talk about the defense, and with
them minute it's true as well. Well, I'll talk about
try first. The offense has really gotten, you know, a
lot better. Obviously he's not you know, he's not breaking
guys down off the dribble, but he is driving. He's

(10:30):
his handle looks a lot more secure, and his ability
to finish through contact and film chet the rym seems
to be a lot better than it used to be.
And I'm not gonna say his shot looks a lot
better because it looks mostly the same, but it's I
think it's going in a little bit better than it
used to, and I feel like whatever we get at
our ReSm three, it's actually a good shot. I guess

(10:51):
I'll say that I'm a bit disappointed that he's not
making his three throw so he. I mean, if I
remember Graft that he used to be like an eighty
percent three through futter when he was the sick span
of the year back at LSU, and I thought that
was like a really I think three throw percentage is
a really underrated aspect of most prospects, especially guys that
played the front court positions, because it's now they stake

(11:13):
are taken for the granted that people call three throws
free three points, but it's actually not three points for
a lot of guys. And I guess I'll use that
improvement from Tari offensively two over over two men who
offensively is on the opposite to reject very as far
as three throw percentagy go sees add up at seventy
four percent, which if you watch them at overtime of night,

(11:35):
you would take that three throw percentage for his career
if you, if you, if you could right now and
if someone offered to you seventy four percent from the
pree throw and from men top for the rest of
his career and not on the other day. On the
other side, you know you're gonna need to knock go
below that either. I think everybody would take that over
time and by the way, on yeah, sorry, And so
that's that's a great development. And the other one is

(11:57):
that he feels a lot more comfortable to me. Obviously
he turned the ball, he's turned the ball over a
few times, but he feels a lot more comfortable to
me when driving to the rim at using his body,
his speed and his IQ of finding other guys, has
tried to open up driving lines for himself, and I
think he's been he's shown more and more flashes, but

(12:21):
then has times gone on, and so I think it's
a better time than ever to buy into the upside
that everybody was tantalized, that everybody was tentalized by a
man Thompson And I guess speaking of my second biggest storyline,
which is Albert Singer's back, I mean, there's there's no
two ways about it. He's and he hasn't been making

(12:42):
you know, the level of threes that he was earlier
in the season, but those always felt that always feels
a bit foul key, and so I'd much rather have
him be back to being the post monster that he
was last season and maybe take a step back from
both from those trees than have him scoring more points
on the street than that be something that just comes

(13:03):
and goes. So I mean, I think the last game
is the biggest, the biggest indictment on how important he
can be for this offense for the exact reasons that
we mentioned the last part, which is the thing cannot
play half guart defense and the team down the street
you can. They've been calling on Joan to be the closer.
But truly, if you if if you saw the game down,
the closer should should be aproaching Gon and he showed that,

(13:26):
and he kept the simovote against the against both the
Pistons and the Wizards. So offer ching Gun's back, Tarry
and the men are still on the rise. I'll lift
you if you want to touch on the arther the
entire argument of should one of them be starting over
or Jabari Smith. I made my peace with it. I

(13:48):
talked about the last part. I don't even have much
to add on top of that. I'll say that it
was nice to see reach Epper to get some more
reps in the game. The presdent w was not on
and it felt like he was a bit more confident
getting to his midlant shots and handling the ball. So
that's trending up Kim. With Moore being kind of relegated

(14:11):
to the ki Leige is something that it wasn't completely unexpected.
We talked about it on the pot for the season.
One of those two guys was going to eventually have
to spend some time in the KILLI just because it's
just not feasible to play. Was not never feasible to
play most of them from a rotation perspective. We even
thought that some of them may lose minutes two f
It's like holiday. Steven Adams has been injured like Jeff Green.

(14:35):
At times we thought that perhaps he could play. They
haven't been playing much and still it's been a minute
stunt for those two, so that's not surprising to me
at all. Kill And obviously on a down note, first
time we've had one really nice game against the Spurs,
but that's not it was short to live.

Speaker 2 (14:54):
So yeah, it did one against the next two and
then I don't think you've touched on Jabori yet. That's
consistently so a mess.

Speaker 4 (15:01):
But yeah, I mean just I didn't. I didn't want
to too much on the party and the entire Yeah,
the last week, because we just made such we we
were we were early on that we had such a
big deal of it, like a week earlier, and now
everybody talking about it. But yeah, it's it's a I'm
not you guys know that I was bank Carroll bus

(15:22):
back in the draft. I'm not going to go back
and pull receipts. But I mean, we just need him
to make his threes and be able to play some
suitable defense. We're not asking for much at this point.
We're not asking him become the second coming of KD
that some people study could become that. I don't think anybody,
at least on our end, we ever really bought into it.

(15:45):
But man, he can't be such a valuable player. Shoots well,
I think I think a diferent that doesn't get that
much better, but he shoots well, give me such a
valuable player. Yeah, I think that that's mostly I know
I want to touch on something. We are on a
I think fifty two win based and I feel like
people are a little bit too down on the team
for a team that's on a fifty two win But

(16:06):
I think everybody would take forty eight wins for this
season and so hardly fifty two is definitely is definitely good.
I like to urge people again that this to me
the Western Conferences all even though compared to how weak
the Eastern Conference is. Obviously it's a tough conference for
the teams that are above The Rockets don't feel as

(16:28):
untouchable as they did last season, and especially with chet
Home Green being out for a while now, it will
see what happens with the Thunder. It'll be a lot
more on stay and selling Williams's shoulders to carry the
little offensively because of what they're going to lose defensively,
not having Jet and not having the Hardens tide, so

(16:49):
they don't team has not to twy as they once were.
And my last point is on the Clippers, because I've
watched probably ward Clippers basketball than I should have, and listen,
I just don't see how they can beat us. Yes,
it's James Sardon. We have some of the best on
both defenders in the league. They have they are a

(17:11):
a three headed I've kept call it monster because they
aren't a monster. But you have on well defense some
jams are, which I trust him and Thompson to do.
You have Norman Powell, who is their only weapon. If
he's hot, it's going to beat us to stop. But
if you stick one of our one of Itai Ramde,
who isn't un hardened on him, they'll give him a

(17:31):
tough flight. He's not doesn't have necessarily the best handle
in the league. It's just more they catch and shoot
or grownava screens and that type of stuff. And then
they have Zubat who's been you know, kind of being
a little bit of a herp. Thear entire offense revolves
around Zubach and and how Hardly can feed them and
how he can create advent and then spray it out
to their multiple role players. So I don't know if

(17:55):
it's worth mentioning, but I don't believe Kevin Portertuder's coming
up with the roof and I'm not gonna go this.

Speaker 2 (18:01):
Well we still probably just ensured it go.

Speaker 4 (18:03):
Yeah, But but I will say that there's these two
are even though they're six and five, to meet, these
are must be yeah when we metch up so so
well against them, direction should not have much trouble defending
subbuts at least Embarran.

Speaker 2 (18:20):
There's some where you can six shouldn't do it all
and yeah that's a great yeah.

Speaker 4 (18:23):
So yeah, well just once to finish off the little opening,
you know, current state of the team segment with we
really should beat the personals. I think they're a really
good much of course.

Speaker 2 (18:35):
And I think the Friday game in particular, the Rockets
are the type of team that will probably be disproportionately
excited by the NBA Cup and the opportunity to make
a bit of a run. Because we talked about the offseason,
this is a fairly manageable group that they're read and
so if you want to actually make it out of
group stage play, a home game against the Clippers is
probably one that you need to win. Clippers a little

(18:56):
more veteran Layden. I know they're not a true title contender. Well,
I don't know if even if Kawhi Leonard comes back
in peak Kawhi fom, but they're certainly not with Kawhi
out injure. But they're still veteran laden and I don't
think they're the type of team that's going to be
nearly as excited about potential Cup run as a younger
group like the Rockets that has you know, six guys
in their core seven currently in the playing rotation and

(19:18):
all healthy. So I think that's the type of game
that could give the Rockets a little bit of a
bump just in terms of the intensity they play with
relative to the Clippers, especially with that game in Houston
as well. So I think the Friday one in particular,
is when I've got circled, is one that I think
the Rockets will probably play pretty well and have a
lot of choos for, especially on the defensive end of
the four. And for me, that's that's where I keep

(19:40):
coming back to when I think of, you know, my
thirty thousand foot view state of the team thoughts three
weeks into this season. The defense is real. I don't
know if they're truly going to be top three all
season long in terms of defensive rating, but even if
they're top five, top six, let's say, top twenty percent
of the league, that gives them such a margin for

(20:01):
error because defense rebounding that travels, especially when you have
the depth that the Rockets do. Individual players are going
to have peaks and valleys, especially when it comes to
shooting and scoring. But the level of length and the
way the Rockets can attack you with waves of versatile defenders.
Obviously Taria de men or the head of the snake

(20:21):
in that regard, but Dylan can still defend at a
very high level. Shabari candidate. Think if a shot ever
gets going, you'll see his intensity on defense pick up
even more. Shouangoon one thing that's not being talked about enough.
His defensive metrics have really picked up this year. He's
defending the rim in terms of the advanced metrics a
lot better than what they showed him doing in the
first three seasons of his career. This is a good

(20:42):
defensive team. Steven Adams should continue to get in better
shape the more he plays. So there's a lot to
like for the Rockets on that end of the court.
And we knew going into this year. Even though the
Rockets had a forty one and forty one baseline based
on their record last season, most of the peripheral suggested
that the Rockets should have won forty five or forty

(21:03):
six games, but they underachieved. I think you know it's
understandable as to why they had been so bad the
previous three years, and so going from one of the
worst teams in the league to just competitive, that's a
big jump in and of itself. So without having much
past experience to draw upon, especially at a collective team level,

(21:23):
it can be tough to close out close games, and
they let a few games slides, especially early in the
season that perhaps they wouldn't have and won't this year
as they get more experience. And so that was one
of the cases for optimism as I saw it going
into the year, the fact that, look, last year's team
was actually by the metrics, closer to forty five or
forty six wins, And you're adding Charie Eason, who's one

(21:47):
of your best players thus far, only played twenty of
your eighty two games last year basically and was limited
by injury at that. Now not only is he playing
incredibly well on both into the floor, but he's also
playing back to backs. He had a ton of energy,
which I thought was a fabulous side on night two
of a split back to back. So did you add
Tarr Easton and Steven Adams to a team that was

(22:09):
forty one and forty one last year, but had the
peripherals of a team that was probably mid forties. And
it's a younger team, so most of your guys should
get better organically just from having more reps in the NBA,
more time playing together, second year of Eme Ujoka and
so on and so forth. I think we're at a

(22:29):
point now where, assuming health, the baseline for the Rockets,
it's not forty one and forty one. The baseline for
this team is at least the mid forties in my opinion.
And the one question for me was whether the defense
would hold an if with Tarry Easton back and the
men Thompson year two, that would sort of give them
the additional depth. And the phrase I keep going back

(22:52):
to is margin of error, so that if guys get
hurt or if guys underperformed for one reason or another,
they could withstand it. And that's exactly what's happened to
this point point. And you know, they haven't even really
figured out the clutch time offense. Shed I mentioned that
being a reason I think they underperformed. They're expected win
lost record a little bit last year, but you know,
you could certainly say the first week of the year

(23:12):
was a concern because there were games they couldn't close
out against the Hornets and the Spurs. Well they didn't
lead that Spurs gaming lost in San Antonio, but you know,
they got back within a point late and couldn't find
a way to get the decisive bucket. But then they
won a corn flip game in Detroit on Sunday and
they didn't even really generate great offense. The buckets they

(23:33):
got in crunch time when they flipped what was a
deficit with about four minutes to play and do a win.
We're on Tarry Easton and all for in Shanoon, crashing
the offensive glass and getting put backs. So when you
can defend and rebound at the level that they do,
and I think they outrebounded the Wizards by twenty four,
just a staggering number, then that buys you so much
time to let the rest of the roster and the

(23:56):
rest of your playing style take shape, because I think
think you know, we talk about how great Shingoo looks. Now, yeah,
last part we were talking about how for most of
the start of the year he'd struggled and Jalen had
been the guy. The first week and a half or
so of the season that was carrying the team. Now
it's sort of flipped. There's still especially the offensive end
of the floor because there's so many mouths to feed.

(24:18):
There's a lot of sort of feeling out that's going
on in terms of when guys feel it's their time,
how did they slide into a supporting role, Who does
he may trust for that closing lineup because up until
eight days ago, the Rockets weren't using Shingun in the
closing lineup. Now it's like he's a mainstay again and
he looks like a potential All Star. So there's still

(24:39):
a lot of feeling out, especially in the offensive into
the floor, in terms of guys figuring out where they
fit the Rockets figuring out where should I run offense through,
how do I best optimize certain things? And with a
younger team, that's going to take some time throughout the
year to sort of fill out. Also the shooting stuff,
you know, Jabari has been a disappointment, but I don't
want to overreact to a bad eleven game stretch. When

(24:59):
he shot about thirty six and a half percent from
three on decent volume in eighty games last season. He
is going to shoot better. I don't know if he's
going to get back to where he was a year ago.
I hope he does, but at a bare minimum, he's
going to get better. And that's what really encourages me.
That's why I'm not going to focus on individuals too much.
In terms of looking at any individual player, especially the
offensive end of the court, it takes time for the

(25:22):
sample to normalize. Again. Through the first eleven games we've
seen all for in Chamgouna have a bad sample and
then a great sample. Jayalen Green saw the reverse. He
started with a great one and it's been not so
good the last five or six games, with perhaps the
defense being the lone exception. Fred Vliet's had some great
shooting games. He's had a lot of really bad ones.
Javary Smith has been the only guy that's been consistently bad,
but hopefully that means he's due for an uptick. I

(25:43):
think you've got to get to twenty forty games before
you can really start having a good handle on individuals
and what the trajectory of their season is going to
be like and well are they going to take the
next step or not, And sometimes they can take even
longer on that. Obviously, it took until March of last
season before we fully saw Jalen Green was turning into
in year three, or at least incorporating that into our

(26:04):
analysis of Jalen as a player. So I'm not going
to look too deep at them individually just yet. We
can know what the peaks and valleys, but at the
end of the day, none of them have been so
catastrophically bad or other worldly good that we would say
the entire outlook is transformed relative to the start of
the year. We're not there yet, but I will say

(26:25):
that collectively, you can get a sense even this early
for the overall talent base of the team, and that's
what to me is really standing out through this stretch.
And you know it's not nothing. After this game tonight,
they'll be at twelve games of eighty two. That's fifteen
percent of your sample. That's not insignificant. And so some
nights some guys are hot. Other guys will pick it

(26:47):
up on other nights, and so that's going to vary
throughout the year. But I do think that even in
twelve games, you can see the totality of the talent
days and do you have enough to offset a bad
night for somebody with a good night for somebody else.
That's the kind of thing that even in a ten
to twelve game sample, you can see, and in my opinion,
the Rockets clearly do. And I think that's what's really

(27:09):
standing out to me when they defend at this level.
Some stats I put on my Twitter page earlier today
at Dundubo's so Rockets scoring below one hundred and ten points.
They are five and three this year. Last year they
were ten and eighteen. They are four to o this
year making below ten three pointers. Last year they were
three and eight. They won against the Wizards with five

(27:33):
made three pointers. The last time they won a game
with five or three or threes was March twenty seventeen,
before Tilbyn Perta was the owner. This year, they are
number twenty seven out of thirty teams in three point
shooting that can get better. They may not be an
elite shooting team, but Fredrin Fleet is going to shoot better.
Javorio Swith Junior is going to shoot better. Reed Shepherd,

(27:54):
who is now nearly forty percent on threes, is going
to get to be a bigger part of the rotation
in the offense as the year moves along and he develops.
That's someone they did not have a year ago. I
don't think they're an elite shooting team, but they're not
going to be near the bottom. I don't think they'll
improve a little bit. And they are seven to four
even not shooting well. I went back and looked someone
pointed out that, yeah, they started six and three a

(28:15):
year ago. They did. But when they had that six
and three start with that six game winning streak, mostly
at Toyo Center, and there was some fortuitous, you know,
scheduling walk in there that Kings didn't have Jaran Fox
for those games. I think the Lakers were missing at
least one of their big guys. The Rockets were actually
shooting tenth in the league on three point percentage during

(28:38):
that six and three start, and that was about, in
my opinion, as well as they could realistically be expected
to shoot. If anything, that was going to go down
a little bit, and it did this year. Starting seven
and four, they are at number twenty seven of thirty teams.
It's certainly not going to get worse, and I think
it should get a little bit better. So, if any

(29:02):
the seven and four start can be improved upon. We
know the games they let slip away. You know, you
look at their schedule. Two of the losses you'll feel
bad about it at all be lost to the Thunder
and the Warriors. Those are the two top teams in
the league by net rating, and one of them was
in overtime. The only loss is you feel bad about it.
Those in the first four days of the year to
the Hornets and the Spurs, and those were one flip

(29:25):
games that you didn't shoot well at. They're starting to
close games better. Shngoon is proving that he can be
relied upon and he can increasingly become the lynch pin
of your offense, and those settings, I think you want
a clone flip game at Detroit, a better Detroit team.
So it's not like you're losing every close game. There's

(29:47):
a lot to like here, and so that doesn't guarantee
you anything, but I do think it shows you, especially
when you look at the success they're having and the
shot luck is not going their way, it tells you
that it that it's pretty sustainable, and you know, knock
on wood. Hopefully there's no injuries, because if you have
a you know, injury to a man or a tari

(30:07):
that could dramatically change things in a hurry, but they
are deeper than most teams, so hopefully they can withstand
that better than a lot of teams are competing with
in the West. I just think that unlike a year ago,
when you know, it felt like they were a little
bit ahead of schedule and maybe they're a little bit
fluky with the shotluck, this year they're not having any
shot luck at all, but the defense, the rebounding, it's
so damn good that they are seven to four through

(30:28):
eleven games anyway, And so for me, it just confirms
that five hundred is no longer assuming health the baseline
for what you should expect of this team until proven
otherwise they're not a contender to shit. But I would
say mid forties is where I think a fair expectation is,
and maybe they overachieved that, but I think the scenarios

(30:49):
where they regressed or fall back to five hundred assuming health,
I don't think you should expect that anymore. This team
should definitely be playing postseason basketball and perhaps even getting
into the playoffs and even threatening to win a series,
getting a little bit of of ourselves there. But yeah,
just so much to like from the first three weeks
of this season when you look at it overall, because
they can definitely play a lot better, and yet they

(31:09):
are still seven and four, and so I think we
should definitely celebrate how far they've come. Last little micro
point I want to get to before we turn to Giannis.
You mentioned the Reed and Cam Whitmore situation, which we
referred to in the offseason. I've seen some confusion on
that point on social media. Look, Cam Whitmore did not
join the rotation last year, even though he had some

(31:31):
flashes until Tory Easan was lost for the year in
early January. That's when Cam got a full time role.
And when Cam started this year, Tari was still in
the minute limitation. You look back, he was playing fifteen
minutes a game the first couple of games, just to
prove that his leg could handle it. Now that you
are scaling up Tari to where they can let him

(31:51):
play thirty minutes if the situation warns it, if that's
what they need, and he's playing worthy of those minutes.
Same with the men, and that's why I don't think
that they're desperate to potentially move Jamar. Yeah, the starting lineup, No,
if you can get you know Tari and men you
know close to sixty combined minutes. If you need it
off the bench, then why do you desperately need to
make a change. If anything, maybe you need Tarion to
men to anchor those bench units, as you argued, didn't
last week's pot powlow to get Tari to the minutes

(32:14):
that he needs, or I guess the combination of Tari
to men. Something had to give, and Cam was the
obvious guy who would be the odd man out because
again he only got his role when Tari was lost
last year. I've seen some saying, well, you know why
as Reid moved ahead of Cam in the pecking order. Well,
first off, I think read shooting is something that this
team needs. As we were just describing to this point,

(32:35):
they're number twenty seven the league from three point range,
and secondly, Reid is replacing for the most part Aaron Holiday.
You need a second ball handler, You need a second
or general shooter type for when fred Vinfleet isn't out there,
and you know Fred this Monday's game with hamstring, Titaness
will see what availability is in next few games. But
I think that could be a side that you know

(32:56):
you need to be even if it's not a big deal,
you need to be mindful of the minutes. You need
another smaller, shifty ball handler type, which Aaron Holliday was
last year, and Reid is replacing that to this point
in this year. With Aaron, that's sort of the third
strit option. If Red's out, which he was on Monday.
With Cam, it's a different body type, it's a different
player archetype. You can't drop him into that role. So

(33:18):
it's not so much that the Rockets are prioritizing read
ahead of Cam, even though I do think read skills
do play a little bit better with what this team needs.
It's also just the way the team was put together
last season, the rotations. Reid is a drop end replacement
for Aaron Holiday as opposed to Cam. He didn't have
a spot when this rotation was fully healthy a year ago.

(33:40):
He only got his spot due to injury. So my
guess is that at some point this year there's gonna
be similar injuries, hopefully not as severe as the one
that Toy had a year ago. But you know, Cam
will get his opportunities to come back to the NBA.
But if there's not a spot for him to play,
consistent rotation minutes. It's better for him to play in
the G League and develop especially, you know, just twenty
years when the youngest guys in the draft class and

(34:01):
as raw as he is had to sit on the
bench and do nothing. He needs to play, and so
it's not really an indictment. It's just there's not really
a role for him right now. And you know, there
doesn't have to be part of it too. You know,
we'll get into it with your honest but there's the
potential for a consolidation trade down the line, and so
it could be that Cam is one of those guys
that's waiting in the wings and then takes on a

(34:22):
larger role, be it at this year's trade deadline, next
off season, whenever the big trade, if one does happen, happens,
and then you have Cam waiting to take on a
bigger role at that time. I don't think he's going
to do nothing until then. There are going to be injuries.
You're not going to be healthy for an entire eighty
two game season. We're already saying Fred Vanvliet struggle with
some things. Jock Landell as well. So there's going to
be opportunities for Cam at some point. I just think

(34:43):
right now, Reid has a more clear path to rotation
minutes with the Raid. This team was built, and it's
not anything against Cam in particular, it's just read is
an easier drop in replacement for the limited minutes that
are available right now. So I think you know, those
are my long winded state of the team Thoughts anything
else that you want to mention Palell before we turn

(35:04):
our attention to yannests.

Speaker 4 (35:06):
No, and I think getting of air teams covered.

Speaker 2 (35:08):
Okay, fair enough? All right, so let's transition to Yannis
for the remainder of this show, because this is fascinating again.
Bucks are off to a two and eight start, although
in a bad Eastern Conference. As you laid out, that's
basically just three games back of the Pacers for the
number three seed. There's the Celtics, there's the Knicks, and

(35:28):
there's not a whole lot else. When it comes to
you know, legitimate contenders will see what happens with or
shoot the Cavaliers. Excuse me, god, I forgot about the
twelve zero caps, but yeah, you've got the Calves, the Celtics.
I think the Knicks will eventually emerge from the pack,
and you know, we'll see what happens with the with
the Sixers as MBAD gets healthy Paul George, they have
the talent to be better, a lot better than the

(35:49):
two and seven they are right now. Time will tell.
But regardless, even if the East expands from the two
elite teams that it has now to maybe three or four,
it's not going to be anywhere near the Western Conference.
So the point is, even if the Bucks are well
below five hundred, there's a pathway for them to easily

(36:10):
get back into not just the play in but the
playoff mix. With all the mediocrity in the East, especially
with Paolo Bincaro lost for a few weeks with that
oblique injury, Orlando is one of the teams that I
think you could have made an argument for prior to
the year taking a leap into, if not the top tier,
maybe that secondary tier. Now with Polo out and who
knows if he'll even be himself and he comes back,

(36:30):
we saw how the oblique limited Dylan Brooks last year.
I think while two to eight feels disappointing for a
team that has you know, a two time MVP and
Giannis and Damian Lillard, and all these veterans Chris Middleton,
Brook Lopez, it would not take a lot for them
to be relevant, and so because of that, I really

(36:52):
want to stress that while the Yannis trade speculation is
intriguing for the obvious reasons, we've talked about the Rockets
needy him and this is a two time MVP. He's
probably slipped a little bit defensively from when he was
at his peak late twenty tens earlier this decade, but
still a thirty plus pointy ten plus rebound per game guy.
He's just twenty nine years old, not even thirty until

(37:14):
next month, so it's not like he's anywhere near being washed.
Even if there's been a tiny bit of slippitch. Still clearly,
what would you say, Pawlo, I think he's top five,
worst case, he's top seven or eight. I think he's
still top five.

Speaker 4 (37:27):
Yeah to me. To me, he's you know, just say
terrible situation. And I think he's still an MVP candidate.

Speaker 2 (37:33):
Yeah, I think he's still loved to three four years.
And so guys like that, especially as they get into
their thirties, want to contempt. Now, maybe his situation is
a little different, you know, with the Rockets. It hardened
a few years ago. James had not won a championship,
so I think there was a little more pressure on him.
Giannis has been with the Bucks his entire career. He

(37:54):
did win a title in twenty twenty one, so that
might make him not white as thirsty to ring chase
as some other guys have been once they get to
that stage of their careers. But the point is he's
not going to languish on a bad team for years
just because he's a Milwaukee guy. That's just not the
way it works with players of that stature in the NBA.

(38:15):
I don't know that it's necessarily eminent in terms of him,
you know, issuing a trade request. Certainly the Buck's aren't
going to force him out. They would make him sort
of make the first move and leak that he wants
to leave town. But the history of NBA Superstars suggests
that unless the Bucks turn things around, and it's tough
for me to see a sustain turnaround when you look
at the ages, the injuries, and the lack of assets,

(38:38):
they have to further improve their roster. And I think
they're a second Apron team too, so they're very limited
financially in what they could do even if they did
have the assets. So I think this trade deadline next
offseason a year after that. At some point by the
end of this decade, Giannis is gonna be playing for
a team that's not the Milwaukee Bucks. I would bet

(38:59):
a decent amount of money on that. I don't know
when it's going to happen, but at some point it
just seems likely to because superstars of that caliber typically
don't play out the string on below five hundred teams
for the remaining prime years. They have so much power
they can get to a better situation. He signed through
at least twenty twenty seven, player option that can take
him through twenty twenty eight, so it's not like the

(39:20):
Bucks are desperate to do something now or else they
risk losing him for no compensation. But again we've seen
time and time again players hold most of the power
in the NBA, So there's going to come a point,
most likely that he asks out, and you know, the
Bucks will have more leverage if they trade him before
the contract gets too close to its expiration. So while

(39:40):
probably not this season, because there is a path to
getting you know, at least competitive in a Bad Eastern Conference.
I think at some point something is going to change
there in Milwaukee. And it's also tough for them, even
if they could make a big deal, which is difficult
due to a lack of assets and a lack of
financial foots building. Milwaukee's a pretty small market to begin
with anyway, so it's even tougher to sustain, you know,

(40:02):
the infrastructure for a star of Jannis's caliber for ten, fifteen,
twenty years. That's just not an NBA history of market
that typically sustains it for that long. So be it
February twenty twenty five trade deadline, twenty twenty five off season,
or you know, twenty six. At some point, barring a
miraculous revival by Doc Rivers, and I don't see a

(40:24):
lot in Dock's history that suggests he's going to be
able to do that, there's going to be a point
where Jannis and the Bucks decide that. Honestly, for both
of them, parting ways makes sense because from a Milwaukee's standpoint,
other than the pr head of losing you know, a
franchise icon, at some point it would be better for
them to try and retool and go a little bit
younger when it's clear they've maxed out and don't have

(40:45):
a path to building a contending roster around Yannis. So
for a lot of reasons, I think it's more win
than if and should he hit the market. Look, this
is what a team like the Rockets, it's stockpilog assets for.
This is not just an all star level player, This
is a two time MVP. This is in my opinion,
still a top five at worst top seven player in

(41:07):
the world. And he's not even thirty years old until
next month, so there's no imminent concerns of being washed
or any major medical concerns or injuries that I know of.
There's a ton to like here. This is the kind
of guy if you need to go all in that
you go all in on. This is why you stockpile assets.

(41:28):
And it's noteworthy that Bill Simmons, as he looked at
the entire landscape, pointed to Brooklyn and Houston as the
two teams that he believes makes the most sense for Giannis,
based on the combination of having the assets to satisfy
Milwaukee because they're not going to move him just to
move him, and I don't think the situation is going
to get too bitter based on their years together and

(41:50):
having won a championship. I think they'd want to do
right by him, but he would also want to do
right by them and make sure that he's not leaving
them in the dust. So, in terms of a decent
enough market size chance to win, it has the assets,
be it draft picks young players that Milwaukee can potentially
build around moving forward. Simmons came to the conclusion that

(42:11):
Brooklyn and Houston in the two that make the most sense.
I'm sure other teams are trying to get the mixed.
You know, you hear about these teams like Miami and
Golden State and the Lakers all the time, but I
just don't see them having the assets in terms of players,
draft equity, financial flexibility to make that work. And so
the Rockets are in a pretty good position here. I mean,
the Thunder certainly have the assets, but I don't see

(42:34):
This is gonna sound weird because the Thunder definitely have
the assets, but I don't know if the Thunder, as
good as they are, would part with the assets to
be at the front of the line for your honest
because unless you're including you know, Shay Chat maybe Jalen,
they do have a lot of draft equity, but I
don't think Milwaukee would take just a draft pick package.

(42:55):
They would want some sort of proven commodity as a
young player. So if okay, see underachieves this year, they
could get into the mix. But I don't really see. Okay, see,
that's the team that has all the obvious equity, but
I don't really see them getting in the mix here.
And then the other team of the equity, Utah, But
I just don't see that being appealing to Giannis anytime
soon for the obvious reasons. So power do you agree

(43:18):
with someone's framing that like Brooklyn and Houston theoretically make
the most sense. Yeah, I don't. Okay, who do you think?

Speaker 4 (43:26):
Okayyeh, I think I think we make a lot of
sense and we'll actually we'll talk about, you know, or
the weep out of it.

Speaker 2 (43:32):
Well, for different reasons. With Brooklyn, I think part of
it is, you know, the market size and being able.

Speaker 4 (43:37):
To see That's the thing I don't see Yanni's going.
I mean, after spending this long in Milwaukee, I don't
see him if you were to sell out to a
big market to the point that he the mandatorates somewhere.
I just don't see Brooklyn being it. I don't think
that they are anywhere close to contention. They would need
to spend the entire big backage that they got for

(43:58):
their stars to gay Yanas because they have those centerpiece.
I don't know why here including cam Thomas, but if
you include cam Thomas, then where you're building around yanis
with do you have clacks that can't play with him?
So I think the Yannis. Yeah, this is one of
the most fun hypotheticals to play out because there's a
lot of rules that we can set off. They get

(44:19):
go that are that are pretty safe assumptions. The teams
that a trade for him, it's not gonna have a
pick and roll. Big Genes is basically never played with
the pick and roll. Big Broke Lopez has been their
time side. In their backup bags are Bobby Parts who
he has, you know, can shoot the ball. So I
don't see it being a team that has a star

(44:40):
or very good non shooting center. So that's why I
thought it broke it out because it's just too hard.
They they have a lot of assets, but they don't
have that many assets, and they just traded to get
their future backs and they can think it will like
all the centers for them to just turn the bait
to another the year old star superstar right off the game.

(45:04):
I don't think probably makes any sense. I would I
would just throw that one at so I think what
makes sense? And I actually disagree with you. I think
that underway a lot of sense. Okay, But and I
am really I'm really high on all of the fenders
players that actually I'm really really high on Jaleen Williams. Obviously,
I don't think she is under the well. I think
he is actually more valuable than Yannis right now. I

(45:27):
think he's obviously a lot younger, he's in his prime.
He's a superstar level player. He was a thirty point
per game player last season. He's a good defender. He's,
you know, your prolative closer in the in a in
a in a, in the close game. I think he
is the type of franchise player that every team is
looking for. And he said the private career, I don't.
I think Shay's all in there. But I don't think

(45:48):
the Thunder need to include both Jalen Williams and cat
holm Grad to make it a competitive Yeah, the straight
back it.

Speaker 2 (45:57):
I think it makes it even though I had to
be at least one of them.

Speaker 4 (46:00):
Yeah, obviously, at least for them, I think that they
would rather have Tilan Williams be the center piece there
for two reasons. First of all, he's more enticing to
the Bucks because he has the potential to be a
Shaye killed as ex other type player for them to
beat the centerpiece of the Rebel off the get go right.
I think he makes a order sense. He's young, obviously,

(46:21):
and he has shown the ability to run team by
himself with the second ind to the Thunder, and obviously
he is also able to play with Shaye when they
close games out. He was obviously I think a six
one last year, and so I think they try to
build the package around Shaye around Tilan Williams. Sorry, I
think how many time I confused his name and sorry,

(46:43):
I meant I think they're going to make a package
around Chilan Williams. And I think it makes a order
sense for the Bucks because they get that center piece
right away, and he's guaranteed to be good and he's
going to keep if the If the Bucks are going
to trade with the Team Michael Thunder, they're going to
want to stay somewhat as vote because they have no
protections on any of their bigs up. But until twenty
twenty eight or twenty twenty nine, Yeah Bugs play Pelicans Blazers.

(47:08):
Even twenty twenty thirty, they still have a swap with
the Blazers. Who is that isn't protected? So I don't
think that they're going to want to sweat out that
when they don't have any chance of keeping their thirty
pup four protected. So I think Jael Williams allows them
to somewhat retool.

Speaker 2 (47:26):
On the Yeah and I agree with you. That goes
into why I think the Rockets are a potential fit
if pre be honest, because they have the types of
guys that can keep the box afloat. Let me cut
you off, because I can see that the Thunder could
have more of a path. Is there any other team
besides the Thunder that jump out to you You've already
said not Brooklyn that jumps out to you have a suitter.

Speaker 4 (47:45):
I have one more so, just one of las thing
on the thing that I wanted to finish off of
with is Chet and and and Yanna's just seems perfect.
You agree, you can run the both this role where
you can have Yanna's battle the tougher physical bigs inside
the chet can obviously space on offense. It's an insanely
good fit. I think that'd be you know, they could
be a dynasty for four years. But moving on my

(48:08):
other team, it's kind of a combination of the team
that's in a tough place combined with a team that
has something that the bugs really want for the next
four years, which is the Pelicans. Repelicans have the bucks
perst round pig for this year, next year, the year
after that, sotil the next three years of picks, so

(48:28):
they could pull a move like what Brooklyn did in
combination to a rocket state. You get picks back and
you thank for three years, you have three years to
bottom up, and then you you hope and in three
years when you opicks again, this time to the Blazers,
you are in a good enough position that you aren't
as hurt by by those moves.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
Are you trading Zion in the steel for be honest?

Speaker 4 (48:48):
Yeah, that's that's where I What makes sense is listen,
Zion is good, he's injury prone. The Pelicans have not
been able to make him make it to work with
him in Ingram, you call it quits. I think the
Pelicans have wanted to do that for a bit. They
played the same position. So the Pelicans can still go
on to contend with CJ. McCollum to Downtain Murray brandit

(49:10):
ingroom and now Yeams. It's not an ideal fit, but
it's better than what you have. You change things around
and they exchange. The Buck gets Zion, who with injury prone.
So if you want to thank he's not really going
to stop you. You could flip them to a thirteen
for more bigs. Since you're getting your own picks back
from the Pelicans for three years. I think they're pretty
perfect partner for the Bucks in this case, and so

(49:34):
I think thunder.

Speaker 2 (49:35):
The question is whether Yannis would want to go to
New Orleans.

Speaker 4 (49:38):
But exactly yeah, I think he could be. I think
with a Thunder the cells pretty easy. I mean, he's
been in a small market. It's a dark careeril thing
going to another one or two with hurt that much.
With the Pelicans it's a bit tougher, but maybe you can.
And obviously the Sat Murray not being the best for
space that it kind of hurts, but maybe you can
sell them on you know, the this is this could

(49:59):
be a four head monster. When he comes to the
fensive side of the ball, You're gonna have to borlowly
defend for three guys. But it's not unthinkable. And I
think for the Bucks it makes a lot of sense
to be a case of the Pelicans singing good enough
convincing it could enough clout, convincing Yannis that they could
be a fit. And then I altuily think we are

(50:19):
and if we want to move to us, I think
we are the third. Yeah, well, I think we're in
contentionent I think that are clearly the best team. But
I think we and the best fit for both parties.
But I think we and the Pelicans could you know,
be getted to a bidding war if the feather that aren't.

Speaker 2 (50:35):
You know well, and I think a lot of us
is also going to cut down to what Yiannis wants
and his comfort level behind the scenes, because I do
think that both Giannis and the Box will want to
do right by the others. I said earlier, the reason
I wanted to start by sort of laying out the landscape.
I want to explain why before we go into whether
the Rockets should or shouldn't and what the considerations are
why I think it is much more likely to happen

(50:58):
in the twenty twenty five off season than it is
in February. I think when you look at the motivations
for most of the entities at play, I think for Milwaukee,
most of the mega deals involving superstars that you know
aren't near the end of their contract or aren't like
thirty five years old and that range, and thus you

(51:19):
know every year is precious because they're close to being washed.
Most of the deals happen in the off season because
there are considerably more options. Obviously, more teams are willing
to think big picture potentially blow it up, and more
importantly than that, just in terms of the mechanisms of
a trade, this large. Gianni's making fifty plus million dollars
a year as a MAX player, and he deserves that.

(51:41):
It can be difficult to match salaries during the year
because of the smaller roster sizes, so it can be
difficult to aggregate salaries and do a five for one,
six for two, seven for three, something of that nature,
as opposed to when you can have up to twenty
one players in the off season, that becomes much easier
to sort of stack contracts together. It opens up more
options around the league. So if you're a Milwaukee and
he's under contract through twenty twenty seven, I don't see

(52:03):
why unless the offer is just beyond overwhelming, that you
would rush into a deal at this season's trade Dell,
especially in a bad East, I think it would have
to be insanely off the rails to reach a point
where they as an organization would want to move that quickly.
He's under contract for at least two more years, and

(52:23):
you have a pathway to at least being relevant in
the East. And NBA history tells us that most of
these traits. Think you know, Paul George and Russell Westbrook
in twenty nineteen. Think Anthony Davis from the Pelicans to
the Lakers in twenty eighteen. Think Chris Paul from the
Clippers of the Rockets in twenty seventeen. Most of these
mega deals tend to happen about guys that are not

(52:44):
at the very tail end of their careers or contracts
up so the end of their contracts, you know, there
can be you know, an impetus to do a deal
sooner rather than later. For leverage purposes, but guys in
the middle of their primes who have you know, multiple
years in most cases left on their deals. The off
season just opens up more possibilities, both in terms of
packages from other teams as well as the financial mechanisms.

(53:06):
Also just the draft equity. If you take Brooklyn as
a suitor, which Summons does, I know you don't. Look,
it's always awkward if you do a draft deal during
the season because one of Brooklyn's most valuable assets is
their twenty twenty five pick that they got back from
the Rockets. Well, if you trade Giannis to Brooklyn, theoretically
at the trade in line, you're making that pick worse
because Giadis would obviously make the team a lot better.
So for a lot of reasons, it makes sense if

(53:27):
you're the Bucks to try and to lay it until
the offseason. And I think for you, Honis, I don't
think any situation other than the thunder would clearly get
him into championship contention this year. And so because of that,
and because of all that trust equity he has with
the players in Milwaukee, the organization, the fans, I don't

(53:49):
see him rushing out and going from you know, At
this point, he hasn't even asked for trade to trying
to force it by this year's deadline and getting ugly,
being willing to get ugly unless he sees a true
path to a ring this year. Even the Rockets, they
would be better with you, honest, do I think the Rockets,

(54:10):
with whatever you would have to give up to get him,
would be better. They'd be better, but they'd be good
enough to win a title. Not this year. They're not
to the Boston Celtics. Okay, see Thunderchier. Even with the
honest there would still be more development with Giannis, whatever's
left to the young core, the chemistry. You'd like to
have an off season to go out and try and

(54:31):
get the best role players to fit around him. That's
also why, again, it makes sense to do bigger things
of the off season, because you have a better chance
to reach ol the roster around a player of that
magnitude and try to optimize the roster to that player's
skill sets, because it's so rare to have a player
of that stature. So for you, honest, I don't see
any of the teams other than Oklahoma City being needle

(54:54):
movers enough that he would say you know what, I'm
not comfortable until the offseason. Let's do this now. And
the final point, if all the teams you listed and
Simmons listed, Okac is the only one that I think
realistically could have the trade package for you Honis and
could win a championship this year with him. Yet I

(55:17):
don't think Okac for much the same reasons I think
the Rockets would want to wait until the twenty twenty
five offseason, I think the Thunder would as well. The
ideal scenario for the Thunder is not training for Giannis.
The ideal scenario for the Rockets or for the Thunder,
excuse me, is winning a championship with the young core
they have in place, with three guys that are in
their load to mid twenties and Jalen Chat and well

(55:40):
Shaf's a little older than that. How old is he
now looking this up? No, he's twenty six, so he's
still in his mid twenties. The ideal scenario, so you
have the longest contention window possible, is that you build
a contender and a championship team organically, and so I
think the Thunder want to give it at least one
more run. As is now, if they fall short, then yeah,
they have the assets to certainly pivot to Yannis, but

(56:03):
I think they want to wait until the off season
as well. So I think the Bucks definitely want to
wait to the offseason. Yannis probably would, or at least
he wouldn't see the upgrade as so clear amongst the
teams involved that he would, you know, push his ships
to the table by February. The Thunder or perhaps the
one exception, but I just don't think the Thunder would

(56:25):
want to do it that soon. And so I think
because of all of those reasons, it's likely to extend
until the twenty twenty five offseason at the earliest. And
if that is the case, the Rockets, and this is
where I've seen a lot of the early talk about
Houston as a Yannis suit are misunderstood. The Rockets absolutely
did the right thing, extending Jalen Green and all per

(56:45):
In Shingoon. I've seen some talk saying, oh, dude, the
Rockets and Simmons brought this up, and it was quite
frankly completely off base, saying, oh, the Rockets wouldn't be
able to include Green or Shangoon in the deal. Well, yeah,
they couldn't. This season but I think part of the
logic for rafel Stone was looking at the trade market,
not just Giannis, but any star player that coul conceivably
become available over the next few years, and I think

(57:07):
the Rockets came to the conclusion that none of those
guys was reasonably likely to be available by the twenty
twenty five trade deadline, and if they were, it wouldn't
be a fit to the Rockets for one reason or another.
And so if it's twenty twenty five off season or later,
then by getting Green and Shingoon to control deals, they
have significantly more options. So the idea that oh, the

(57:29):
Rockets should have waited no restricted free agency, the theoretical
cap flexibility does nothing. If Milwaukee trade Giannis, they're not
going to want to trade him for cap space, because
guys if that stature don't move or anything close to
that statue via free agency. It's by trade. If Milwaukee
trade Giannis, it's because they are going to want to
bring in impact players through that trade, building blocks like

(57:50):
Zion from the Pelicans, essentially, Jayalen Williams from the thunder
Shingoon or Jalen Green from the Rockets, someone like that.
It's not going to be about cap flexibility. And I've
seen some suggest that, well, you know, the ITTs could
use Fred and Fleet as the financial vehicle, you know,
package fread multiple movers of the young core and draft picks.
Fred's not going to be that appealing to a post
Giannist Milwaukee. No. I think, both for asset reasons and

(58:13):
financial reasons, what makes the most sense is for Jalen Green.
We're all per in Shangoon, most likely Shingoon for the
front court reasons. You laid out to be the primary
piece going to Milwaukee, and you are in a much
better position to execute that trade next off season by
doing the extension. If you let them hit restricted free
agents restricted free agency, they are free agents. They are restricted,

(58:37):
but they are not bound to go to Milwaukee just
because you want them to. They would have to agree
to a construct. They would have to agree to go
there as a destination. Other teams could be involved in
the bidding. There would be all sorts of unique side
and trade rules at play. Timing considerations. By getting these
deals done early with Shingoon and Jalen, you have full
control next off season. You don't at the deadline because

(59:01):
of base year compensation, the poison Pill, all those provisions.
It's very difficult, basically impossible. David Wiener laid it out
at a blog post at Clutch Fase to Clutch fans
do that, you can read it, but basically, incoming salary
the Rockets basically it would count very little to them
their current salary, but it would count, you know, as
outgoing salary significantly more to the team acquiring them because

(59:23):
obviously they would be acquiring them for the next few years.
So it would be very difficult to take the salaries
line up and both teams are above the salary cap
because it would be like a twenty plus billion dollar
delta between you know, what the incoming salary for the
other team is and the outgoing salary for the Rockets.
So it makes long story short. The first season the contract,
which is this season the extended contract or after the
contract extension. Technically extension doesn't kick in until next season,

(59:46):
but the point is this season, because you did the extensions,
they become almost untradeable. The Rockets were okay with that
because they looked at the landscape and say, you know what,
we don't think any of these possibilities are going to
come to a head or make sense for us during
this upcoming year. By next off season they could, and
so because of that, it makes even more sense to

(01:00:06):
do the extensions early, as opposed to risk waiting a
little restricted free agency and bringing other teams into play
uncertainty with the contracts at that time, potentially agreeing to
assigne and trade all these other variables. No, everything is controllable.
Now you know the salaries, you know the years, and
the Rockets have full control. So no, the Rockets do
not regret agreeing to these extensions based on the potential

(01:00:27):
availability to be honest. If anything, the potential availability to
be honest insteadivized Rafelstone Moore to do these deals in
mid October. So I want to clarify that off the top,
I don't think the Rockets misread the market at all.
I think they came to the conclusion that the twenty
twenty five offseason was the most likely time for a
deal to make sense to them. I think it's true
for most teams around the league, and so I think

(01:00:50):
that's why Milwaukee and Yiannis are likely to wait. And
in that scenario, certainly it would take two or three members.
Of course, Ev and along with draft picks, you can
get into PI picks in the second palow. But I
think it would almost certainly be Shinegoon or Jalen most
likely Shinnangoon because he's the most proven, because what we've
seen with these, you know, comparable traits, and so I

(01:01:12):
mentioned a couple of them, you know, Anthony Davis Pelicans
to the Laders. Blaker sent background in Ingram Paul George
from Thunder to the Clippers. Clipper sent back SGA, and
Sga wasn't a star at the time, but he had
already proven a lot like he had already played starters
overal minutes in the NBA and looked like a very
promising prospect. They'd nobably be an MVP, but they felt
pretty good about it. Even Russell Westbrook to the Rockets.

(01:01:33):
We talked about the draft picks the Rockets gave up.
They also gave up Chris Paul, who was still close
to his prime. So because of that, it can't just
be about prospects and draft picks. With theoretical upside, you
need at least one player in the deal that has
done it to scale, and that's where you know, people
can mock counting stats. All they want the guys like

(01:01:56):
Shingoon and Jalen that have proven they can put up
twenty plus points in case Shining Gogo twenty and ten
while being the top option on the scouting report, while
having their bodies hold up over eighty two games at
thirty plus minutes per night. They are the only two
guys on the Rocket's roster that can fit the bill.
Maybe Tarry Easton, if he explodes the next few months,
he's out there now just because the sample is so small,
missed of most of last year. But if Tarry Easton explodes,

(01:02:17):
why the hell are you trading him? If Tarry Easton
looks like he's emerging into that type of player by
the end of the season, why wouldn't you just keep him?
I think the more likely scenario it shouldn't Goen Jalen.
Very good players are potentially very good players in Jalen's case,
but ones with some alarming flaws. But yet, because they've
done it to scale, could at least be something of
a building block of some certainty for the Bucks moving forward.

(01:02:41):
To me, that's where it makes sense for them financially
and from an asset perspective. It can all be just
you know, roll the dice future picks and members of
your young core that you know, let's say, like the
Reed Shepherd, Cam Whitmore tier, even to an extent of
men Thompson and Jerriiu Spithjunior who haven't done it at
scale just yet, Guys that you feel sort of good
at and if you scwin hard enough, you might like
them as prospects, but they haven't really done it beyond

(01:03:03):
ten fifteen minutes. No, there's a reason why most of
these deals have someone coming back. It maybe a little
bit flawed. Nobody's saying bren and Ingram is a superstar,
but he had proven that he could be a high usage,
legit scorer in the NBA that has value. And so
that's why Shinoon or Jalen are the two guys on
the rockets. Most likely Shangoon. That would have to be

(01:03:24):
the foundation of a deal otherwise, just the comparable trades
for guys that are that good at an All star
or better level, that are under contract for a multiple
seasons moving forward, so there's no force that's pushing the
team to accept way below market value. So they have
a lot of leverage. You've got to give up something
of value, And so for the Rockets, we look at

(01:03:45):
the roster Frends and Fleet might make it work financially,
He's not going to make it work anywhere close. From
an asset perspective. At this point, it's Shoinogoon or Jalen.
They are not the Rocket's best prospects, but they can
fit that role in a hypothetical star trade better than
most of the others. So the bottom line is, if
you want to use one of them in that way,

(01:04:07):
how do you best have them available for that option?
Should the right guy or opportunity present itself To me,
it's pretty clear that the extensions in October were the
right way to maximize their value, especially when you work
at the marketplace, and the fact that you know these
negotiations are probably more likely to happen next summer than
they are in February. So, Paulo, I know I've gone
on for a while. I know you had some points
you wanted to jump in before we got into the

(01:04:27):
Rocket specifically, but I just wanted to lay out why
I think from Houston standpoint, the extensions make even more
sense now, not less.

Speaker 4 (01:04:36):
Yeah, definitely, I think if you don't extend them, as
you said, you can trade them next off season. You
can only sign and trade them. Which leads me to
the first one that I want to make on the
Bucks and why I think, well, i'd look do with you.
I call it a eighty twenty that he used to
get there that it's not this season, it's after at

(01:04:56):
the fair least the end of this season. The first
one is the Bug are really, really, really badly into
the tax They are paying currently nearly seventy five million
just the season four tacks. This is without you add
those seventy four million to the salary. They're going to
have a bill of two hundred and sixty eight million

(01:05:21):
for their roster this season, which would be the second most,
the third most in the NBA, behind only the Suns,
who are just out of this world, and the Timberwolves
because of you know, their mife cock. So from the
Bucks perspective, which is what I wanted to get to,
it might make more They might want to trade in

(01:05:44):
this season because they get to hopefully thought or lessen
this enormous tax blow. And also because since depending on
the destination, they might want to still be somewhat contenders,
they might value a deal where you're getting back expiring

(01:06:05):
salary while at the same time valuing the ability to
use that saura that will expire at the end of
this season as cap space the year after. So but
in a situation where they trade Yatis, they trade Lillard,
or they keep Liller, whatever the case may be, they
would hold on if the fifty five million venus, they

(01:06:29):
could use that newfound space to build not obviously the gender,
but but I think that's decent in case they don't
deal with in case the Pelicans aren't involved and they
want to remain somewhat good. So those are just two
quick camera points that I would say that may I
think the bugs are actually the only part of this
entire imaginary hypothetical ordeal that might actually want to get

(01:06:53):
some sooner rather than later.

Speaker 2 (01:06:55):
And also not surprised because they have spent aggressively to
this point, would take a toll one to eighty, which
maybe they you know, maybe they rack up enough losses
to where they would be willing to do that, But
it would just be an aggressive change in posture from
ownership on down that you know, maybe it can happen quickly,
but typically that tends to happen more over spent a

(01:07:15):
month than a few weeks, especially in a bad East.

Speaker 4 (01:07:19):
Yeah, I see what you mean, and usually these things
don't happen this quick. But if they were to be objective,
I think they have actually out of the three bodies,
so the third, the second team, and the Bugs, I
think they have the Bugs have the most game from
doing it deal sooner, and so that's why that there
may be an angle dait. But then as far as
I want to also touch on the Bucks froster, just

(01:07:41):
to remphasize why they you know, they are on the
virtue of blowing it up. It's not this season. I
think that the next season, there's very little champce that
this team holds itself together for more than just this
for this season and halfway through next season, and they
may give it another sad next season. But I think
it goes poorly again, maybe because Yanceys thirty, Willard's getting old.

(01:08:03):
He's still very good, but he's getting older. Brook Lopus
is old. Chris Middleton is old, washed and injury prone.
Boy party Is is an offense only player. Torrian Prince
is on the low end of what a three and
D wing looks, what could be carry traded at this
point is it's have been great, But there was a

(01:08:24):
point in his career where he was more of a
defense as specialists who could shoot. Now he's a shooter
who can somewhat play defense. Terrible obviously not good, prettymeter
the defense, but not a good defender. Aj Green, defender Clinton,
You've talked about Andre Jackson, the one right who's an
okay defender, and just a lot of guys that don't
make the rotation. So this team is built out of

(01:08:45):
a lot of shooting and terrible defense and it doesn't work.
They have all the sort of power in the world
and it doesn't work. Even with Jannista, he cannot defense
for three people in some items for other people who
are not but good defense. This makes it unsustainable for
the box, So they will I think they will have
to tread them because they're locked into a lot of

(01:09:06):
these guys. And Chrismainton is not going anywhere. Little is
not going going anywhere. They're not good defenders sets within
their careers, uh and characters not going anywhere, but reporters
are not not going anywhere anytime. So it's gonna it
would be really hard to rebuild this team especially because
they are over the second aprin they can only tate
for players cheaper than what they currently have. There's a
lot of restrictions. You guys can check the CBA episode

(01:09:27):
we did with with David Wiener on that. So because
of all of this, I think nies In by next
year's that line, Pops is gone.

Speaker 2 (01:09:37):
Yeah, And so why did I want.

Speaker 4 (01:09:40):
To establish this parallel because I think if we did
this trade free and it's a lot of people would
say that the first priority should be acquiring shooting. Acquitting
shooting should be the main priority of the team regardless,
because we need some shooting. But the quieting shooting at
the expense of defense might not be the solution that
a lot of people are walking are going to clim

(01:10:01):
it is because well, look at this current team, right,
Yanis is not going to get better as a defender
from thirty on. He's I would say his it's more
likely that his defense slows down faster than what his
offense does, and it has already happened up to this point.
Is not the switchable one through five monster roaming walls
that he used to be. And so when formatting a

(01:10:24):
trade or a series of trades, because obviously if she
trays three and this is wordely not done with just Janus,
especially with how many fitting pieces this team has that
actually don't sit within I think what your next step is, well,
how do we build a roster that's composed of what
we currently have with Janes? I think chings cannot play together.

(01:10:47):
Changhun could become a thirty seven percent shooter overnight on
two attempts a game still wouldn't be enough. Brogopestics a
lot of threes. I see he gets five, but then
the attempts, you know, on any given night, and so,
and he's a and he's a very good to reford it,
and so I don't think that that that works whatsoever.

(01:11:09):
I think as Janis falls on defensively, obviously he's going
to be behaving more like a forward than less like
a suitable bit. So that also isn't great. With ching Gun,
it's and if you trade free, I just don't take it. Words.
They operate in the same off, in the same space
as offensively they operating, they are going to end up
operating similar spaces defensively as well. It just doesn't make sense.

(01:11:31):
Emshinghen is probably the guy that the Bugs would want
the most, considering that if they are trading with us,
they're going to want to remain competitive.

Speaker 2 (01:11:38):
Yeah, I'm added on the floor and to this point,
his floor is a lot higher than Jalen. Yes.

Speaker 4 (01:11:42):
Yeah, And and I think the thing that you are
to take into account is it's very likely that just
like what the Brooklyn nest did, that the Bogs will
want to have the Pelicans within the negotiations and say, hey,
if the center piece goes to you, can I get
my pigs back? And well, actually, Shingle would be a
would be a pretty good fit with Ingram, he would

(01:12:05):
be a pretty good sit with C. C. McCollum, he'd
be okay fit with with the junt Murray used as
more of a trivial handoff type of guard. He obviously
doesn't fit with with Zion. But if the Pelicans are
quite requiring another style of doubt that time is probably
the old man out, because they've been rumored to one
if you wanting to move on for a while. And

(01:12:27):
so even in that scenario that makes a lost sense.
But I'm not I don't think she gun's enough. And
I struggle to see a world where Yannis and a
man can coexist, and that's a tough conversation to have,
but considering how better of a fit they will be together.
And I know you you we we've spent years saying

(01:12:48):
that you don't trade long term upside for short term
payoff fit exactly. But at the point when you're treating
for an NTP candidate that thirty years old. At thirty
years old, that's likely going to be you know, an
v I think he'll be an MVP candidate at reasonatily
thirty four. He's just that type of physical you know, piecet. Yeah,

(01:13:10):
I think it might make and and for love of
watching The Men, but I think it might make sense
to include Shan Gun and the Man if that means
you can save on what you give up big swives,
because if you're starting with Shangun and the Men, you're
already in a you know, I think you're already kind

(01:13:32):
of from the no quantity some point you're knocking out
of the park basically, any other offer any well, we
could give well.

Speaker 2 (01:13:39):
And also, if you're acquiring Giannis on a Max deal
in his thirties, I mean, he's the ultimate super Max
type of player by the end of his contract. He's
going to be into the sixties seventies in terms of
annual value for him. So that's going to be an
expensive team, and so you would need those picks potentially
to find cheap role players in the years ahead because

(01:14:01):
of how expensive that overall team would be based on
having a true super Max player. So that's the argument
that you could make on that front to sort of
pay a little bit more on the front end to
save picks that could give you potentially cheap role players
to build out the roster in the years ahead. Look,
I think clearly the Rockets could make a competitive offer

(01:14:25):
if they wanted to, And I wanted to lead off
by sort of explaining the timing dynamics because I just
for the reasons we laid out, I don't see a
deal making sense for most of the parties involved until
at least the next offseason. And also you mentioned you know,
I do agree with your framing that even if you
don't typically sacrifice long time upside for fit, if we're

(01:14:46):
talking about a top five to ten player in the world,
that's a rare enough opportunity where you might actually do
that because you need if you're going to give up
that much financially in terms of prospect cost assets to
basically make him the face of your franchise. Then yeah,
you need to do everything you can to maximize that window,
give him what he needs to succeed. And so it's

(01:15:08):
different than just a very abstract sense, and it's the
same reason why again I think the Bucks would be
incentivised at least from an asset standpoint. I understand your
points about the finances and the taxes of it all,
But from an asset standpoint, you wait until the offseason,
you're much more likely to have more teams in the
bidding because you can actually at that point do more
things to reshape your roster. And then of course you

(01:15:29):
can have a full training camp off season to sort
of develop chemistry and put it all together gradually in
the right way, as opposed to trying to do it
all on the fly in February. And so because of that,
there's going to be more teams in my opinion, and
the running because you can potentially build out the infrastructure
in the right way. It only makes sense to do

(01:15:50):
a deal at the deadline in one of two scenarios.
Either a team is so ready and the talent is
so overwhelming, like Ooklahoma City decided to do it this
year and included Chat and the Bucks just couldn't turn
it down. And Giannis couldn't turn it down because you
know he can win a championship this year, then whatever,
that's fine. Or if the organization just decided to go
cheap and do it strictly for financial and tax saving reasons,

(01:16:13):
I guess, But from an asset standpoint, it makes sense
to wait until the offseason then. So if that happens,
you know, twenty twenty five off seasons or later, the
Rockets will be players because you know, Shin Guon and
Jalen will both be fully eligible to be dealt at
that time, and would make sense both from the financial
standpoint as well as the assets standpoint in a way
that you know, putting together deal right now with Fred
van Fleet's a financial vehicle just would not make sense,

(01:16:35):
even if obviously he would not be an asset to
the Bucks. It would have to be Fred plus you know,
a huge combination of prospects at picks, so Rockets could
definitely get in the bitting. I agree with you, they
included both Schangun and the Men. It's tough to see
any team based on what we know now of those
prospects beating the offer, the question for me is whether
they should. And that's another reason why I think. You know,
besides the Bucks wanting to wait until at least the

(01:16:57):
twenty twenty five offseasons for the reasons that I laid out,
I also think the Rockets, similar to the Thunder, would
prefer waiting organizationally until the twenty twenty five offseason. Besides
the fact that it's easier at that point because of
the extensions, I also think that gives the Rockets more
time themselves to learn more information about the upside of
this team. Because just as I don't think the Thunder

(01:17:19):
would want to rush into a deal, they would prefer
to organically build a contender themselves, so would the Rockets.
You mentioned leading off the pod and we need to
wind downs and know we're well over an hour now,
but look, the Rockets are on a fifty two win pace.
To expect that to continue, not necessarily, I mean, they
have had a fairly friendly schedule to this point. But
if the Rockets somehow this year end up winning fifty

(01:17:41):
plus games and at least a playoff series and Shungoon
looks like a bonafide all star. That would make me,
you know, I wouldn't say I would never do it,
but it would make me more cautious for sure, as
opposed to you know, if it's the other end of
the spectrum, and I mentioned I don't think that that's
a reasonable expectation anymore. But if the rockets, you know,
don't take a step forward and they're wired in mediocrity

(01:18:02):
at round five hundred in a tough West, then yeah,
that's the that's the scenario where you just get it
done no matter what, because you need the stimulus of
a player like Giannis to lift you out of the
middle of the pack purgatory, the mediocrity s treadmill if
you will, and so work. It gets dicey for me
is if it's the middle ground, If it's like, you know,
mid to upper forties, and you get into let's say
the play in tournament, maybe you sneak into the playoffs.

(01:18:25):
That's where I'm sort of on the fence where there's
clearly a step forward, but just how much of a
step is it. That's where I think the conversations would
be most difficult for or Fellstony Mayu Dooka. The way
I see the framing, you know, if you under achieve
this year, then whatever, it's worth it because you need
to get out at that point of the mediocrity treadmill,
something is going wrong in terms of just building it organically.

(01:18:47):
But there's also a world where if you outperform. Just
as I don't think the Thunder in a perfect world
would trade for you, honest because they just build a
championship team organically, I think the same would be true
with the Rockets if it looks like they were able
to build it just with the core seven and having
the right role players around them and so on and
so forth. I think it's the middle ground where you
know they're on the right trajectory, but they're still not

(01:19:08):
to the point of winning a playoff series or even
close to the level of the Thunder, where I think
you get into these dice scenarios where you sort of
see the path, but you know it would make you
a little bit nervous because you do see growth internally
and at least a chance that the internal organic development
plan could work out. So what are your thoughts? Pellow,

(01:19:29):
I guess on the balance there, do you agree with
that general framing and that if not that if you
win fifty plus games in the playoff series, that you
would never trade for you honest, but it would make
be more reluctant. It might make it to where I
wouldn't trade both Stringoon and the men. At that point,
the Rockets might get outfit. And if it's a forty
one season, assuming it's not due to you know, widespread injuries,
and maybe if it is, depending on exactly who it's too,

(01:19:51):
then yeah, I would be super aggressive and say, you
know what, they've just got to get that star player
and worry about the rest of later they need the stimulus.
And then if it's in the middle ground, that's where
I I'm sort of on the fence. And depending on
exactly how the season plays out, you know, does it
look like Tori can legitimately be Kawhi Leonard as you
know Imo Udoka throughout that Cup again after Monday's game,
do you have the guys internally that can potentially make

(01:20:13):
it work? You know, at that point it's not just
about the collective but about the director of certain individual prospects.
Where do you sort of fall in Paolo on the
scale of not just can they do it because I
think we both agree that they can, but should they
do it?

Speaker 4 (01:20:28):
Yeah, So it's actually a definite question than I expect
because I started thinking about this a week ago and
how everything looked like back then and how it looks
like now. It's quite different. If Jalen looks like by
the end of the season like he is going to
be a star or rather than what looks like this
season and a twitter defender but not that much better

(01:20:50):
of an offensive player, and he's catch into the numbers,
especially playing the guy like Yiannis has staid out. Even more,
if Jalen's not looking why a star player that I
think I may have to decline because a lot of
the tinges on on John being able to be the
second offer of weapon on the team. Right, you have

(01:21:13):
Yanna's right, you're probably going to be trading for the
center uh that can play with him, but maybe you
run Gavari at the five and and you tried to
work that's passing.

Speaker 2 (01:21:22):
Out that way.

Speaker 4 (01:21:22):
But now after trading and managing what are two of
your I think best performed players this season, Now you
have Giannis who's a thirty year old star. But you're
hoping that Jalen can read Shepherd and Jabari Smith Junior
becomes who we think they can take, that they can become,
and which is what Rocks are hoping to do right now.

(01:21:45):
And so you're you're shortening your your margin, but you're
maintaining a lot of the same questions. And so that's
why to me, it becomes a really tough, really tough
ask unless to just completely ruin the team. Maybe you
reason because I don't think Listen, I'll say right now,
it's a hot take. People can clip this.

Speaker 2 (01:22:04):
Whenever they want.

Speaker 4 (01:22:04):
I would not trade. I would not involve our reason
in a trap. If we're trading for a start to
win now, we need our reason to win now. To me,
that's he's will contribute more than what any team would
value him as.

Speaker 2 (01:22:17):
Yes, that's the discrepancy. That's what I want to hit home.
And I agree with you at that point. It's not
so much that Tori is untouchable as a player. It's
that he is just much more likely to be of
significantly greater value to the Rockets than what he would
likely be to the other team in a trade where
it just wouldn't make sense.

Speaker 4 (01:22:36):
Yes, exactly so, going back to the points you'd have
Maybe if you traded for more experienced pieces, you'd have yannas,
you'd have Tari. Maybe you keep Breath and with more
in use, Jalen and too Boried plus pics, try and
get some other names around. But at that point are

(01:22:57):
you really are you really building something sustainable? Right? And
it's the goal of the reveal is that to me
is never about getting back to contention. To me, it's
about getting back to contention sustainably. Right. We weren't bad
for three to four years, depending on how you feel
about as season, hoping to be good for one or

(01:23:19):
two seasons by going all out and trading for the
superstar again, right, And unless you can do it sustainably,
and unless maybe you have other deals like that, maybe
there's another young star that becomes tradgled. Maybe it's tesn't Booker.
Maybe you compare Yanni's. Maybe you trade for Yanna's with
Shingoun and a man and and a couple of picks
of your own picks, and then the Sun's pull it

(01:23:42):
up although they're eight and two, doesn't look like it
likely and maybe doesn't blow it up, and you're looking
at oh, okay, we can pair up pianos and we
can use the Sun's pics. Was Jalen Green, was Jeovardi
Smith with the Suns and bringing booker and now we
have Yanni's booker read Shepherd and Tari and now yes
you're absurder. It's good to be very very very good

(01:24:04):
right now. We still have some upside with the reachair,
but some upside with with with our reason, but we
are going to be really freaking good now, and that
kind kind of scenario maybe, but if you're going to
try to play both sides, and unless Chillon Green trends
supports again by the other season and is looking like

(01:24:25):
a star player, which he's looking like a good player,
but on a star player right now, if those guys
and him and especially don't look much much better, I'm
not willing to markeag what is our safe young talent
for weed older talent until because there's real scenarios where

(01:24:48):
Tilean doesn't pan out, the Bard doesn't pan out, and
we build a team around saying Goon in the entire
reason and when Thompson's a big part of that, and
so because of that, because of those scenarios, I'm not
willing to go all in on on the guy like
Yiannis because the god is going to be obviously some
of our safer some of our safer prospects. But the

(01:25:08):
one thing that I would add is I'm not confident
that the Rockets would think the same way that I do,
because listen, how are you gonna tell Tilman Fartida that
you have a chance to go get Yannis and you're
not going to because of this really new ones you know,
kind of thought process that I kind of just find

(01:25:30):
that I kind of.

Speaker 2 (01:25:31):
Just sustainability as your marketing tagline.

Speaker 4 (01:25:34):
Yeah, yeah, And besides that, it's there's no galt that
what I'm saying is correct, right, That's it's when you
can you only have the ability to bring in a
I think Nis is still in his prime, a NDP
caliber guy still in his prime, that you think is
going to be an ADP caliber guy, please through the

(01:25:57):
next four years, which I think is a cycle in
the NBA is four years for the next four years.
It's really just start it down and and maybe you
trust your ability to move more pieces if if you
see that, Yeah, yes, came in and he's right and
he's doing well. But the rest of the team is
that then you trust yourself to shuffle more pieces. But

(01:26:19):
what you're doing at that point is the more wrong
to get it through your the more wrong it looks
through your first series of moves, the least levelage you
have for your moves afterwards. That's why it's what these
transformations are good to Peter. Are supposed to be the
during the off season because well, nobody's seeing the team
play in real time, and so there's no panic. You're

(01:26:39):
not losing y but you can move all you can
make a lot of change at once, and you're not
really losing or gaining much leverage because is not getting
better or worse. When if you're doing this and you're
having games being played in between, even if you do
one of the moves at beginning of the season and
then three that while we're trying to make more moves,
you're going to bleed out value because yeah, set it

(01:27:02):
to wait. So it's it's really intriguing. I think Gettice
is one of the players. Listen and I'm completely out
of training forty me but I was completely out on
a polity artic move and completely out on trading for
anybody over over the thirty eighty.

Speaker 2 (01:27:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:27:16):
Yeah, I'll even iven lock it at thirty end. I'm
pretty out on training for anybody over the thirty except
for an NTF candidate, So I think we should should
have a chance to do that. Yeah, trying to real
see what the rabbits I trying to do. You have
to disconsider it. Yeah, but it's debsinitely, I can definitely
see both sides.

Speaker 2 (01:27:34):
I mostly agree with your sustainability frame A. I just
think there's a world where if they underachieve enough this year.
It's not that the logic would change. It's more if
no one takes a clear step forward. And I don't
think that's likely to happen based on what we've seen
to this point. But you know, there is seventy games
or so still left, so we have to keep an
open mind. Eighty five percent of the sample is still

(01:27:57):
out there. If nobody takes a clear step forward, other
than you know, I guess Tari is no matter what
at this point, or I don't know, worst case Cerra,
maybe he gets hurt again. It's not that I would
do the trade go aggressively after Yannis because I think
that's the right path to sustainability. It's more, if things
are going poorly enough, like you mentioned Jalen Jabari not

(01:28:17):
taking a step, then I might want to try the
you know, the door number two, which is not just
you know, the immediate stimulus as I called it of Yannis,
but then having a player like Yannis on your team,
how desirable he then makes you to other players around
the league, and thus continuing to build, you know, having

(01:28:37):
a better path to putting together a championship roster that
way as opposed to the organic development. I don't think
that's going to happen. I don't want that to happen.
I just want to clarify that's the one scenario where
if they truly do I don't want to say bottom out,
but let's just say another forty one and forty one,
forty and forty two, eleventh or twelfth in the West,
nobody is clearly at a higher tier to end this

(01:29:00):
season than what they began it. Then at that point,
it's not so much that philosophically I would disagree with
what you're saying. It's more just, hey, the situation at
that point is would be so uncertain here that I
could be tempted to say, you know what, let's just
if we have the opportunity, and all of this is
conditional on Yatis being open to coming here. In that scenario,

(01:29:20):
maybe he's not even that open to coming to Houston
because they're still at five hundred, So that may take
care of it in and of itself. But if theoretically
he was open to coming to Houston and he may
be OK, get him to buy in. At that point,
I might say, you know what, let's just get the
MVP candidate in here. See what else happens with the
rest of the roster. Other opportunities in the months years
ahead to put the right players around him, and that
is more appealing than the status quo. I don't think

(01:29:43):
that's going to happen. I've seen enough already that I
like the chances of multiple prospects in the course of
it developing to where that scenario is not going to happen.
That's just the one pushback that I would give to
sort of your sustainability analysis. Does that make sense? Yeah,
I think get this. It's I think it's unlikely to happen,
and I just wanted to add that one sort of asterisk.

Speaker 4 (01:30:02):
Yeah, yeah, And I think my opinion on it will
change throughout the years, says, guys' stocks go up and down.
I think if I said before, if I think if
Kilen turns to be a twenty four four, fourty four
or five and four on tent through shooting by the
end of the season, then I may be a looking
to give at this differently. But right now, man, maybe

(01:30:22):
that's recency biased oportunity is our only him as the reason.
Probviously I said that since Altra, yeah, is our only
known quantity at this point, even a man Thompson, he's
been really good, but because he doesn't shoot, it's always
to be.

Speaker 2 (01:30:37):
And if that's the case and nobody else takes a
clear step forward this year, that I think the likely
scenarios that you end up somewhere in the you know,
forty five to forty eight win range, which is sort
of in that middle ground where you know, there's compelling
arguments both ways, and I think that's probably where the
rockets are likely to end up. And that's what could
make this such a contentious point of debate next summer.

Speaker 4 (01:30:58):
And at the same time, I think a lot of
people if that if that's the case, that they went
forty five to thirty in the season or I think
I probably if they went a little bit less want
to be borling to be saying, oh, stay the course
and see how it goes with another year of development.
But I will say in rebuilds, getting to the door,

(01:31:19):
but not in the door easy to plot exactly. And
not only that, with young players especially, there's a there
was a big bushlar season to get better, and there
was the payoff to that put which was the winter
also was a lot bigger. This season, there's a there's
another big push to get better, and then the payoffs
for that getting better has to be playoffs. If you

(01:31:41):
don't get there, it's easy for it to tail off.
And there's examples of this in very recent history. I
mean the look at what happened with the Pelicans. The
Pelicans were on the way up. They didn't crack all
the way in, they didn't get through the door, and
they fell off again. With the young teams, it's easy,

(01:32:02):
and the.

Speaker 2 (01:32:02):
New add ins and all timed injuries like they've had
this year, you can go off the reals quickly.

Speaker 4 (01:32:06):
So if it's not, you can't expect the development to
be lenear, and you can expect the status quo twin
then itself from one season to the other because mentality
plays a big factoring to what is a very longly
need to the exactly season. And so if they're going
to be moves made to win now, if this if
this season, if they don't get to the playoffs this season, regardless,

(01:32:28):
so sting the course isn't really I don't think it
would be really in consideration if that happened.

Speaker 2 (01:32:34):
Yeah, and one quick point on the Pelicans, who you
threw out his potential suitor earlier. With Zion having multiple
injuries early in the year, now of four to six
week hamstring, it looks like that's another reason why I
think the Bucks from an asset perspective at least would
be incentivized to wait, because I don't see a world
by February where you feel comfortable if you're the Bucks
taking Ziod as a centerpiece until he proves you can

(01:32:55):
really stay healthy for longer than twenty games or so,
which is probably going to be all that's left by
the time he actually comes back from this hamstring injury.
So that's another reason why if he's in play because
of those picks, and you know New Orleans being uniquely
valuable to Milwallkee for that reason, then that's even more
a reason to string it out and see if Zion
can actually take his body seriously and stay on the court.
Anyway to close the loop. The one bow I'll put

(01:33:19):
on it and the happy face, I think both you
and I are in agreement, and I think Oklahoma City
would feel the same way most of their fans. The
ideal scenario is that you don't have to trade for it.
The ideal scenario. You know, we're talking about it because
it's interesting, it's a fascinating possibility, But nothing would make
me happier than the Rockets to continue on, you know,
the fifty two win pace, maybe even get a little

(01:33:40):
bit better if the shooting picks up and they just
develop a contender organically, Because look, Yiannis will be thirty
one years old next season. You'd be looking at a window,
you know, if it's remaining prime yers. I know people
can point to Lebron now, but until proven otherwise, I
think he's an outlier. I think realistically you have to
look at thirty five is sort of the cutoff point
for when guys are still reasonable in their prime. The

(01:34:02):
ideal scenarios you build an organic contender. We've already sort
of grown attached to these players, but also because they're
under load of mid twenties, you could have a sustainable
contender for ten to fifteen years, as opposed to you know,
shortening your window to most likely four or five years
because of the agent curve with the honest and the
assets you'd have to give up to bring him in.
The ideal scenario would be you having enough as is

(01:34:23):
and you may udoka developing these guys in the right
way to where you don't have to make a trade
like that. And I think the same is true with
Oklahoma City. That's why I don't think they pushed in
the chips at this year's trade deadline, because they have
enough hopes that SGA chat and trail and can develop
into you know, the core three of a championship team
as is, and then you can use all those future
draft picks that they've got to build out the right
role players around them for cheap as the roster gets

(01:34:45):
more expensive. So that's the way. Is there anything I'm
off base within that analysis? Because you know, as much
as it's fun to talk about, you honest, in a
perfect world, I don't want them to trade for him.
In a perfect world, I want this team to work
out well enough as is that you don't have to
to me, that's the that's the optimal scenario, right.

Speaker 4 (01:35:03):
Yeah, I'm confident enough in in the current state of
the team that ideally everything stays the same. Yeah, there's
there's as the anasties on the Bots, w'd be part
of the reason why he will trade for Yanalysis to
keep him from Basically what you're saying is Bozzon too.
One of the biggest reasons to for anists to keep
him from going to another West contender because he goes
to the Thunder for example, in the framework that I said,
I don't think anybody's beating the Thunder for three years

(01:35:25):
and was and the beginterry happens, I mean, how do
you beat Shay and then a defense led by Jannis
and and chet Holm Green that you know they just
should pet both on offensive on defense. They really have
because if you're including Kevin Williams and a bunch of
picks and the rub players that they already have with
the I say Hartenstein now at the Carouse, so all

(01:35:47):
the game that they already have I think at that
point you know, like, I don't think the won't need
to spend all of their assets to bring Anderson when
they're already giving up Kealen Williams, and so I think
they are. They look at that it's absolutely stacked and
they still have assets to you know, show up any difficulties,
difficulties that they may have. I think that's, you know,

(01:36:08):
a big reason why you should trade free Ennis is
if that happens, you're not touching, you're ruggling past to
I said in conference center. Yeah, it's I think it's
I think it's a warrior stype of thing. I think
it's that level of that much better than the rest
of the league, just because and mostly because the rest
of the league is not really convincing to me right now.
And the one thing that the two teams that look

(01:36:28):
somewhat threatening in the CAFs and the Celtics on the
other conference.

Speaker 2 (01:36:34):
And I think, you know, the way to eye all
this together is that's another reason why I think most
of the party is involved in this are going to
be inclined to wait until at least next off season
because there's so many layers to it that the more
information you can get on certainly your own team, but
also the landscape of the league, what the other options are.

(01:36:58):
It would be a lot for someone to to push
their chips to the middle of the table for what
would make sense for you, honest, with three season left
on this contract for it to make sense for the
Bucks and for the team giving up everything for it
to make sense to them. So yeah, for all of it,
we don't even have to unless new information leaks. That's
part of why I went so long tonight. This can

(01:37:20):
be sort of our honest FAQs episode to where if
people want to know what we think of the state
of play, what the considerations are, you can refer back
to this in your logger line archives. Because I really
think unless something shocking happens with the Box or some
other team being so insanely desperate that they just do
something extremely unforeseen, this is going to be shelved until

(01:37:43):
at least next off season because it benefits so many
of the people involved to the player and team to
have more options, have more suitors, and for the teams
involved to get more information and so Rockets can see
how they're guys developed and also see, you know, just
how the thunderlook are they in cinimized to make a move.
Maybe one last point I'll get in. We've got on

(01:38:05):
long enough that anybody still listening is a die hard.
If the Rockets don't want the Thunder to get y honest,
but they want the door to be open themselves in
a weird way, would it be beneficial to the Rockets
if the Thunder win the championship this year, because in
that scenario, the Thunder would be less likely to go
after him if they, you know, make it work with

(01:38:25):
sga Chat and Jalen. So in this scenario where the
main thing you're worried about, or one of the main things,
is Thunder potentially becoming you know, last decade warriors in
some ways, if you're sort of in that uncertain ground
and you're the Rockets, does it maybe benefit you to
just let the Thunder win a championship as is? Do
you see where I'm going with that?

Speaker 4 (01:38:45):
I think it makes sense.

Speaker 3 (01:38:46):
But if that happened, yeah, it's my Katie is way
to yeah, look at that, but like you might, you
may they may get yannas and keep killing Williams.

Speaker 2 (01:38:58):
Oh yeah, just Dan Dan if you know, yeah, super
ta yeah, and always at the Thunder.

Speaker 4 (01:39:02):
I kid mostly, but in fact, one of my earliest
memories as a Rockets fan is just moments threaven moments
from the regosity that I have in my mind is
a game against the Thunder where we lost the weird
West has come from Straits where we lost to the
Thunder on a buzzer beater by bull Kill. Oh yeah,

(01:39:22):
and the massive seating implication. Oh yeah, yeah, that's.

Speaker 2 (01:39:25):
What I'm my own. Yeah, I've always had some bitterness.
One of the stupidest fights I've ever been in. So
during the twenty twenty Bubble playoffs, remember when Ross had
the quad injury and the Rockets are being caging about
his status. Yes, yeah, and he came back during that
Rockets Thunder first round series and I was pointing out
and you know me, I do this all across sports.

(01:39:46):
I hate when teams are unnecessarily cagy for no reason
with injuries, like they think it's gamesman ship. It's really not.
It's just being you know, a dick to your fans
for no real reason. It's all you know, it's all
in their heads that theoretically, oh we could make the
other team, you know, waste time planning. Ninety nine percent
of the time, I would say it's all nonsense, but
because there are rules that they can exploit, they do.

(01:40:08):
And so the Rockets were very you know, cagy for
when he would come back with that quad injury. And
of course, even though Russ was on the Rockets at
that time, Thunder fans loved him from all of his years,
including the MVP season in Oklahoma City, and so when
I would make the argument again not too dissimilar to
what I've said in recent days with the Texans being
way too cautious with the Ugo Collins and sort of

(01:40:29):
playing it fast and loose with the activation and hyping
people up thinking King return other than to be conservative
in the end and holding him out longer. I forget
exactly what I said, but the thunder fan base took
it to where I was questioning Russell Westbrook's desire to play,
and that had nothing to do with it. I was
not questioning Russ's desire to play, his willingness, his heart.

(01:40:52):
I was to a Rockets audience throwing shade at you know,
the Rockets and Mike D'Antoni from necessarily being you know,
too secretive when we just wanted to know what the
hell is going on and you know what to expect.
And I had pretty much all of Oklahoma City Twitter
on my neck defending Russ, who was a Rockets player,
thinking that was attacking Russ. And it was the dumbest
fight I've ever been in because again, I wasn't even

(01:41:13):
accusing Russ of not wanting to play or doing anything wrong.
I was accusing the Rockets. But you know how Twitter is,
People take one thing out of context and before you
know what, the narrative takes on a life of its own,
even if it's not what you meant. But yeah, ever
since then, I've just had some hard feelings towards thunder fans.
It's like, seriously, like all these guys come at me
and it's literally not even the point I was making
in the slightest Russ wanted to play.

Speaker 4 (01:41:34):
One of my earliest memories from from sports Twitter in
the US was I was always been a reader. I've
listened just one of my least favorite players probably ever.
Just just the epits me of what I don't like
about Baskets locally for the last year, play being inefficient,
killing in the playoffs, didn't I have drama with the

(01:41:56):
seventeen MVP there is his fans being so obnoxious. One
of my earliest memories on Twitter was just, you know,
I was random one hundred followers account that I was
sitty on Rust because I wasn't random tirade that I
went on and random one hundred forwer accounts was getting
flooded by by Rust fans that are a buying RUSS

(01:42:17):
fans on the ems to listen to Velis Christ just toxic.

Speaker 2 (01:42:21):
Yeah, it's a unique fan base and some of it's
out there fault. It's one of those things like especially
when you're the only game in town or the only
pro game, then it's different than cities like Houston, where
there are some Rockets only stands, but for the most part,
people sort of go back and forth straying the Rockets,
the Texans, the Astros, and other interests. You know, these
smaller markets like the Thunder and the Spurs where there's

(01:42:41):
not another pro game in the same market, those fans
can be a lot more intense because they're lives, you know.
Twenty four seven through sixty five surround that NBA franchise
in a way that a lot of the fans, at
least some more casual fans aren't quite the same way
in fan bases like ours in Houston, so I get it. Anyway,
we've gone on long enough, and again I don't want

(01:43:02):
to spend too much time on it because I think
there's going to be plenty of time in the months
and perhaps years ahead to debate this possibility, and we
can certainly revise our opinions based on further information, both
for the Rockets and other teams. Anyway, it's gone on
long enough now we'll wrap it before two hours. At
least we did it. I was worried about knowing what
we wanted to cover to day that we might have too,

(01:43:23):
but we at least kept it below that. So I
will shut up now and get ready for tonight's game
at Tutor Center between the Rockets and the Clippers, and
I promise you when we come back in a week
or so, we'll be talking much more. Micro wanted to
do the longer form Giannis discussion because it's becoming with
the Bucks losses mounting, it's becoming more and more of
a talking point nationally. Rockets are at least in the conversation,

(01:43:46):
so it'd be foolish not to at least address the
possibility off the top, and then you know, we'll see
how things develop over the coming weeks, months, and even
years as to whether it becomes more realistic. Anyway, until
that next show, which will be much more on court focused,
we will wrap it for now. If you want more
content before that next show, the best place as always
to get it is online, where you can follow me
on Twitter, slash x at, then new Goo's at Palo

(01:44:07):
OL's NBA, at this show, at the Logger Line, and
of course if you good logger Lines page, you can
find our link tree which has links to our distribution
partners like Apple, Google and Spotify. If you be kind
enough to subscribe lead the Podsit review at your location
of choice, we would certainly appreciate that. Also on that
same link tree, you've got links to our friends, sponsors
partners in the program usahda's Rockets, Wire, Carbon Brewing, Sports
Talk seven ninety. Hit up those links and you can

(01:44:28):
enjoy their content as well. So with those plugs complete,
we will jourin it right here for Paolo, I'm Ben,
Thanks as always for listening, and please come back soon
for another new episode of the Logger Line.

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