Can Rockets, Tari Eason agree to a contract extension?

Wednesday’sepisode breaks down the ongoing contract extension negotiations between the Rockets and fourth-year forward Tari Eason, including new reasons for optimism and projections on what a deal might look like. The deadline for rookie-scale extensions comes prior to the NBA’s October 21 regular-season opener, so negotiations between Eason and Houston executives will be active over the coming days and weeks.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to the Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven
ninety The Logger Line. It's proudly served to you by
car Box Clutch City Logger.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
It is good o Red Nation.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready. The Logger Line starts now.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Welcome in to another fresh episode of the
Logger Line. As always, I'm your host, Ben Dubo's Rockets
reporter based here in Houston. I'm again joined by Powell Alves.
He's out in Portugal. It's now the final week of August,

(00:51):
so it's pretty much the most quiet time on the
NBA calendar that you'll see all year. Training camp starts
in about a month, so lots of people are out
on bakes at the moment, but there are still a
couple of active business related storylines to focus on for
the Rockets. In our last pod, which was on the
NBA's schedule release a couple weeks back, we finished up

(01:12):
with a discussion in that final segment about Kevin Durant's
next contract. It started about the fifty minute marks, so
if you haven't already listened, then you want to hit
up our archives feel free, but in general we put
it as the final segment because honestly, it feels inevitable
that eventually something is going to get done. On the
KD front, you don't trade for Kevin Durant without having

(01:33):
a plan to keep him around for more than one year.
And also in the Kevin Durant case, there's not really
a deadline. They can negotiate now, They can negotiate during
the season. They can even negotiate exclusively next offseason in
the period before free agency. Same thing as Fred van
Fleet going into twenty twenty five free agency and Rockets
negotiated the deal prior to that June thirtieth start date

(01:56):
or I guess the June twenty ninth option date for
what was final year of his previous contract. So as
far as KD, there's not really a lot of time
pressure there, And I also don't think there's a ton
of mystery as far as whether a deal gets done
and what it might look like, because given his age
and also factoring in NBA rules, the extension is only
going to be for a year or two, and honestly,

(02:18):
it's become pretty far for the course that superstar players
and that thirty five and up age bracket. They typically
go year to year, maybe one plus one. When it
comes to the contractual side, it just makes the most
sense for both parties for a multitude of reasons, including
the age thirty six and age thirty eight rules in
the CBA. But there is a bit more mystery when

(02:38):
it comes to the next contract for tarr Ethan, and
so that's why we saved it for today's show, rather
than tacking it on to the final segment of a
show that was already over an hour long. We figured,
let's just address this separately because there's a lot more
to unpacked on the Tari front, So let's start with
the intel. A couple of days ago, Kelly Eco wrote
this in The Athletic about the state of play between

(03:00):
the Rockets and Tari. These are direct quotes from Kelly.
There's been positive communication on both sides pertaining the Ethen's extension,
and the hope is that an agreement can be reached soon.
The Rockets are dangerously close to the first apron and
ironing out an easton contracts would give them more certainty
on their upcoming financial layout, while also avoiding a potentially

(03:21):
awkward situation. Team sources would prefer to finalize an extension
sooner rather than later, while understanding that it may drag
out until closer to the start of the season. There's
also the possibility that both sides can't come to terms
and revisit this the following summer in restricted free agency,
but the Rockets don't want it to be a lingering
issue or distraction. That's b end of Kelly's report. Now

(03:44):
what's worth emphasizing here is that, unlike KD, there actually
is a deadline with Tory Eathen. If the deal doesn't
get done prior to the start of the regular season,
which is October twenty first, then Tari becomes a restricted
free agent next summer. That's just harsh reality. There's no
way around it. And while being a restricted free agent
does let the Rockets match any outside offer, it's pretty

(04:07):
clear that there are some limits as to how far
they would go financially. Otherwise a deal would already be
done and all it takes is one team to make
a big offer, and that can put you in a
very uncomfortable position. Now, keep in mind that Ja Maori
Smith Junior, another first round pick from the same draft class,
back end twenty two. He was also extension eligible this offseason,

(04:27):
and he already signed a five year deal nearly two
months ago. As we pointed out before the Rockets, they
have incentives to get these deals done because they know
their payroll is about to get way more expensive, all
these younger players coming up on their second contracts, most
notably a men Thompson getting a max deal in a
couple of years, and then, as Kelly wrote in his story,
it's obviously to their benefit to get financial clarity on

(04:50):
those other contracts as soon as possible so they can
figure out how to make especially that twenty seven to
twenty eight year with a men Thompson likely on a
max deal and Kevin Durant on something reasonably close to it,
in all likelihood, it's going to be tough to fit
all that in in the second apart environment of the
current NBA, and so the sooner they can get clarity
on future contracts, the more that Eli Wiitison or Felstone

(05:13):
can start planning all this out. So on today's show,
I want to discuss why the risk profile with Tari
is a bit different than it was for Jabari, because
in my opinion, that's primarily why these negotiations are dragging
a bit, and I also want us to make some
guesses as to what a deal might look like if
it gets done. But I want to start with what

(05:34):
I hope is a point of consensus, which is that,
regardless of these talks, Tari is going to be on
this team and he should play a pretty important role
this season on what we hope is a championship contender.
The reason I bring that up is John Hollinger, also
with the Athletic, formerly an NBA for an offense executive.
He actually floated the idea of the Rockets potentially trading Tari.

(05:55):
I'm going to read a few lines from his recent
column about extension eligible guys. Again, this is be quoting
the Athletic. Even if the Rockets and Easton had a
workable number, say three years for sixty five to seventy million,
another issue crops up. The Rockets might not want to
commit to paying him yet. Houston has multiple decisions on
whom to pay in the coming seasons, and the Rockets

(06:17):
will be particularly expensive in twenty six, twenty seven, and
twenty seven to twenty eight. Regardless, assuming Durant signs his extension,
because if that, one wonders if Houston might choose to
strategically cash in its Easton stock before next season, and
if so, whether that would be more easily accomplished without
a contract extension. Again, that passage is from John Hollander

(06:40):
me personally, I just can't see it happening, And a
lot of it comes down to exactly what we discussed
in our KD segment a couple of weeks ago. There
just aren't that many teams with significant cap space these days,
and the few that do, they typically don't want to
tie it up for several days on a restricted guy
when the Rockets can just match after the fact. We've

(07:00):
seen that all off season in twenty twenty five, when
the markets for most of the restricted free agents have
been pretty bad. Just ask Jonathan kaminga of the Warriors,
Cam Thomas and the Nets, Josh Giddy at the Bulls,
and so on and so forth. So the bottom line here,
I don't think the Rockets will be or should be
that afraid of restricted free agency as it pertains to
the worst case scenario here. And I'm also skeptical even

(07:24):
if you disagree with what Tari's restricted market would be
I'm skeptical as to what his trade value would be
right now. As an alternative, I mean, for starters, you
don't trade for a thirty seven year old Kevin Durant
if you're not trying to win a championship immediately. And
so if you replace Tarr Easan from your rotation with

(07:44):
a Joshua Kogi or Jayshan Tate, you're going to be
taking a step back. Now. In theory, you could trade
Tari for someone who replaces his minutes, but then you
have to factor in what his value actually is, and
right now, I think that's unclear based on his leg issues,
which I assume we're going to get into. For me,
I just can't see another team trading an established, good

(08:06):
player on a good contract for Tari Eason right now,
given the injury history. And then if it's a bad contract,
it defeats the entire purpose of the negotiations. You might
as well just keep Tari and pay him what he wants.
In that scenario, he at least has more upside. So
in a very abstract sense, I can see why for
some teams a trade could make sense as a measure

(08:29):
of last resort, But for this particular Houston team. I
just don't think it makes sense. I think either you
get a deal done the next few weeks, which I
hope happens, or you play out the year as is
and then you take your chances with restricted free agency
next summer, knowing that in twenty twenty five that's been
a very team friendly environment for negotiations. So to me,

(08:49):
those are the only two realistic options. I just can't
imagine a trade making any sense here, Powo. Before we
get into the specifics of the negotiations between the Rockets
and Tari agreement on the trade aspect of it, primarily
that it just doesn't make sense.

Speaker 3 (09:04):
Oh yeah, I think from everything we've ever heard about
what the Ropets think of Stari, I think they prioritize
him even higher than Javari, although his market Luy might
not be as such because of his injury, but just
like a player that he is. And then you add
on to that that you're trying to contend here, you're
like one point five million below the first Apron, you're

(09:27):
paying tax. You're not going to trade a guy that's
making what five seven million dollars a year and giving
you production that far outmatches that it's not like the
Rockets are going to trade him for future assets, because
that wouldn't make sense for him that just traded for KD.
And on the other hand, I disagree with the premise
by Haulling that says that you're cashing out on him

(09:48):
or cashing in on him. That doesn't make sense either
because trading a guy who has one year left on
his contract, even though he's restricted after is only going
to happen with a team that has already that has
already talk to his agent and it's okay with whatever
extension and they need to sign to get him to stay.
That the'mbo even a trade for one year a far eason,
and so you're gonna get discounted value on Tari for that.

(10:11):
And then at the same time, it means what you said,
you're never gonna get that the type of production from
Tari from what you would get back for him on
a salary like that. This meaning let's say the Rockets
don't want future assets, right, they want to play the helps. Now, well,
you're not gonna find better, you know, value for your
money on a contract up to seven million year, which

(10:34):
I think is what Tory makes maybe five or six
million on basically anywhere unless you're getting another rookie batag
and at that point you really probably rather stay with
the contract that you already have, that you know what
you can count on with him. So I think just
trading him makes no sense at all. It because against
everything we've ever heard the Rockets talk called Tari Eason.
Even if they cannot come to an extension, it doesn't

(10:55):
make sense to trade him because well, he's gonna play,
and he's gonna be motivated to play, because he's gonna
hit restricted reregency the year after, and the Rockets should
be comfortable going into restricted free agents. And this is
a perfect sebrate to talking about actual numbers, because as
you talked about, a few teams have cap space now
this offseason, there are a few teams with cap space,
and the reason is young and he would fit you know,

(11:17):
a lot of the bottom feeder teams that are constantly
there at the Wizards and the Nets, it would fit
their timeline to give Tari an offer, right. But then again,
Tori doesn't really strike me as a guy that wants
to again, knowing Mamas and on Twitter, he doesn't really
strike me as a guy that wants to go to
another rebuilt, especially having just gone through and it seems
like a guy that wants to win, and so even

(11:38):
if that pays him the most money, restrictive freegency is
always really really you know, perspective of the team because
of what you said as all, which is you can
offer him an offer sheet, but then you have that
cap space tied up for a few days, and as
much as you want, as you may want to tell
me that teams have the deals agreed upon very early on,

(12:00):
that goes away the moment. You can't guarantee a guy
a deal, right. You can have a pre agreed deal.
Let's say Dorisan is the first option for a team, right,
but they have a backup option in case ourism doesn't sack.
That backup option will never be very good because what
players goes to subject himself to, oh we can pay you,

(12:22):
you know, I don't know, seventeen to eighteen million dollars
a year, But only if we miss out on that,
only if we miss out on tar. Reason, only if
a team that are is you, only if the Rockets
don't matter offer for Darisan. Like we've seen the past
few years, they've tried to hide it by not leaking
stuff the minute after the freakiency opens. But the deals

(12:43):
are very much pre agreed upon, and even more than that,
they rarely get new deals two three days afterward after
after FREAKIMC opens, because that's what it would it would
take for a team that holds out and offers starry
as not for sheet and then has to if that

(13:04):
doesn't work out, go after another guy. So no team's
going to be willing to do that. You can argue
that the Nets this year still have I think the
Nets still have game space. I'm pretty sure, but that's.

Speaker 2 (13:16):
At least most of it. For Michael Porter Jr.

Speaker 3 (13:19):
Yeah, I know, but that typically doesn't happen, and it's
just as the team, you always have control over what
you over what you want to do and whatever team offered.
Like typically teams are okay over paying for a guy
to throw him out of a certain team in North
Statea's free agency when there's a lot of upside cases there.
Tory Easton's an awesome player, and there's upside with urism obviously,

(13:42):
but he's not exactly the guy that is going to
be a good deal if he's overpaid, even as a
role player. You have a ceiling as what you can
as for what you can get paid right, and that
ceiling is like to resim is already close to that ceiling.
If that makes sets on an extension projecting website as well,

(14:03):
And so it's harder for a team to make the
case that they should offer him, you know, twenty percent
above what his market value is to draw him out
through the street. The phigiency to keep rockets from mathing, right,
because if they keep the player, that contract is not
going to be positive value early on. And because Star

(14:25):
is a role player, it doesn't really have much potential
to ever become fair value in the future or become
an asset that the team can then trade. Definite makes
sense when you're talking about guys like Jonathan Kuminga or
Cam Thomas, who you know have that star upside at
a certain point, like you can overpay camp Thomas by
twenty percent and make it consolidated bad that Cam Thomas

(14:46):
is going to turn into a start and at that
point he's going to be worth his contract with Tourism's
a little bit different with Ouri or Japari. I don't
want to seem like I'm targeting Tarium specific here Tario
or Jabari or any of the other guys that have
signed contract extensions as guys that protect to be role players,
it's hard to make. They're not necessarily an upside play
for teams, and so it's harder to justify all of

(15:09):
the commitment that it takes to get a guy like that,
and always without a certainty that you'll get them right.
So it just to me, it will never make sense
to trade you're never going to get a good return.
Doesn't make sense for Puttin that's trying to win. Tourie
is a really good play right now. So I guess
I'll hand it back to you. It's just I guess
I don't want to be throwing shots, but I guess

(15:31):
it's kind of justify that on holding it isn't a
TM anymore.

Speaker 2 (15:35):
Hot Voge agrees with you. God Voje was savage on
Hollinger back in the day. Although I will say, in
fairness to Hollinger, the three years for sixty five to
seventy million dollars, that actually makes a lot of sense
the numbers that he threw out, and we'll get to that.

Speaker 3 (15:51):
Yeah, And to be heard to him, he did call
Shannghun being you know, really good. I think he had
them like top four in the draft back and back
in the day.

Speaker 2 (15:59):
Yeah, good point. Anyway, I think the trade notion is
especially undercut by the timing because the same issues that
the Rockets are having with projecting Tari's future value, other
teams are going to have it as well. Now that's

(16:20):
different by next off season if Tari goes out and
has a healthy season and the leg issues are behind
him and he shows more growth as we hope that
he will. But right now, I mean, the same issues
that Tari is having and we don't know this. There
have been reports from Kelly Eco that suggests both sides
are hopeful. So maybe they're not that far apart. But

(16:41):
if you look at this as class half empty, Oh
why haven't they come to an agreement the way that
the Rockets and Jabbari did, maybe they're far apart. Well,
I think it's probably safe to assume that there would
be that same gap in terms of what Tari and
his agent want him to get versus what the team
is willing to give with other teams as well, because
everyone's going to have to consider the unique risk profile

(17:03):
here coming off the last couple of years, because look,
he only played in seventy nine regular season games combined
the last two years. And this is not just one
fluky injury. No, this is a stress reaction in his
lower leg that even after he had it surgically corrected
in March of twenty twenty four, he still had issues

(17:24):
with the following season, And it's inherent in the term
stress reaction. It's not a one off. This is not
like when Shabari Smith broke a bone in his hand
because someone swiped down on it, wrong place, wrong time
at training camp, or it was a practice during the season,
but same difference. And so clearly with Spluky he came
back had no further issues. No, this is a cumulative

(17:46):
toll that NBA minutes took on his body, and he
had issues multiple times with that leg over multiple seasons. Now,
I'm not saying that I think it's going to be
a career to find injury. No, there are plenty of examples,
including Steven Adams last season, where guys aren't quite ready

(18:07):
the first season after leg surgery. It takes them a
year and a half closer to two years. Stephen called
it a two year recovery process and so yeah, you
can absolutely sell me on the idea that Tary's going
to put all of this behind him starting this season
and that he really needs to be two seasons out
from when he had the issues surgically corrected to be

(18:28):
all the way back. That's totally fair. But every team
in the league, not just the Rockets, it's going to
have concerns seeing a guy that played only seventy nine
combined regular season games the last two years with a
recurring issue in his lower left flag. That's stress related
and it's not like Imo Udoka or Steven Silas right
him into the ground. No, he hasn't exceeded twenty five

(18:50):
minutes per game in any of his three NBA seasons,
So this is not like, oh, you just need to
use them a little bit less. No, he had these
issues just being use at a moderate level coming off
the bench, playing twenty to twenty five minutes per game.
So that's not meant to be overly pessimistic. Again, you
can make it compelling an argument that he should and

(19:11):
will move past it this season, but until he does,
any team it's going to have to factor that into
their decision making in terms of what they're willing to
offer him. So if the Rockets are hesitant, I suspect
other teams would be as well. And so that further
undercuts the logic of engaging in trade discussions because you
just wouldn't be able to get what you need if

(19:33):
you're the Rockets. In order for a deal to make sense,
tury I wouldn't get the contract that he needs. You
wouldn't be able to fetch the value return, I e.
A player that's clearly superior to josh Ua Kogee j Shuantate,
someone that's near the end of your bench right now,
and so the trade path doesn't really make sense. The
flip side, though, and this is why I think the
negotiations are a little tricky. There's also a boom scenario

(19:57):
with Tari. So we talked about the injury risk, and
that's definitely the bus scenario, but there's also a boom
when you look at his advanced metrics win shares value
over replacement player. He's been better than Jabari, at least
on a per minute basis through three seasons in the NBA.
There have been times we've made the argument right here

(20:18):
on this podcast that he looks potentially like a young
Kawhi Leonard if he develops more as a playmaker, and
I wouldn't say that he took any steps back the
last couple of years, or not even that he didn't
take steps forward. It just got stunted by the injury concerns.
So if you squint hard enough and you look at
the advanced metrics, you can understand why Tari and his

(20:40):
agent might be saying, hold on here, we want to
get at least in the ballpart of what Jabari Smith
Junior got, because there's evidence that he might could be
even better and could have even more upside. I'm not
saying I fully buy into that. What I'm saying is
that they have a case that they can make. I
think with Jabbari, and this gets brought up on social

(21:02):
media all the time. Fans want to know why did
the Rockets get this deal done with Jabari Smith as
soon as the negotiating window opened around July first, And
now we're two months later and things are still going
on with Tari. I think with Jabari he was and
is very projectable, both for the team and from his perspective.

(21:22):
You know, we've talked about it before. He's very plug
and play, super high floor. Maybe the ceiling is a
little bit lower. I don't know if he has the playmaking,
the shot creation to become a full blown star, but
he's going to be a winning player for a good
team for a long time. There's no injury risks. He
doesn't need the ball in his hands to be super effective,

(21:44):
good defender, very versatile. Fits perfectly into the Ima Jokab
defensive team oriented culture. Not that Tari doesn't, but I
think Jabari defensively is more disciplined than Tari is, which
gives him more utility. The bottom line is Jabbari is
a very projectable guy for the Rockets. They have a
good idea as to what his future value to the

(22:06):
team is going to be. And conversely, I think Jabari
also knows, at least for the next few years, what
his role is likely going to be in Houston, and
it's not going to be one where he's likely to
have the type of breakout statistics to where he can
clearly get a much richer contract, because as long as
Kevin Durant, a, Men Thompson, all Parin Shaoon are all

(22:26):
here and all healthy, Javari is going to be the
fourth option at best. So even if he does develop
in other areas, which he's just twenty one, twenty two
years old, he's certainly capable of doing. He's probably that
going to all of a sudden start putting up the
big numbers that will have you looking back in a
couple of years and saying, wow, five years for one
hundred and twenty two million, under twenty five million in
average annual value. He shouldn't have done that. No, nobody's

(22:49):
going to be saying that. I think it's very clear
from the team's perspective and also Javari's perspective, what his
role is going to be, what his value is likely
going to be, at least from a statistical perspective, which
speeds into what these players can command. And so it
made it very easy for the team in Shabari to
come to an agreement with Tari. There's more of a

(23:11):
boom or bust debate to be had, and we went
through the upside, we went through the injury history. I
would also point out, and this is a minor thing,
but Tari did not have a good playoff run against
the Warriors. Of the eight rotation players, he was by
far the worst. When you look at the on off
court differential. And I'm not making a huge deal out

(23:32):
of this one opponent, a small sample size of seven games.
I just want to note it for the record because
as much criticism as Jalen Green got, and I understand
why he's your leading scorer, there's more expected of him,
Tari arguably underachieved even more. And people in the building
weren't that surprise. There was an expectation going in that
the Warriors were a bad matchup for him because, at

(23:55):
least at this stage of his career, how dependent Tari
is on being super aggressive defense, being a menace in transition,
and the Warriors are very disciplined and postseason basketball often
becomes a slugfest, very half court oriented, and to this
point that's not the most conducive to Tari's skill set. Now,
can he develop over time, for sure, but to this

(24:18):
point that doesn't play to his strengths. And so from
a team perspective, it goes back into sort of how
you analyze those metrics in the regular season on a
permanent basis. If you split hard enough and you say, hey,
if Tari's healthy, yeah, you can argue that these are
numbers that could lead to a very very good player,

(24:38):
but then another part of the boom or bust equation.
You could make an argument that, unlike Jabari, maybe Tari's
game doesn't translate as well to the playoffs because some
of the skills that it takes for him to be
at his best, at least in his first three seasons
don't always translate in the super disciplined half court style
that we see in the playoffs. So that's my guess

(25:01):
as to what's going on here. And again, as far
as the downside of risk, I think it's much more
about the injury than it is seven games against one opponent.
That's a very small sample. I just bring it up
as context because if we're going to talk about it
a lot with Jalen Green, as we did and justifiably so,
we should at least mention it with Tari. I think
it's not a huge factor in negotiations, but it's just

(25:21):
a little bit of the downside risk. I think the
larger point here, unlike Jabari, there's just a lot more
volatility when it comes to projecting out the future of
Tari Eason over the next two, three, four, as many
as five years. That's I think the longest contract that
he would be eligible for, and so that's why these negotiations,

(25:43):
in my opinion, have continued to drag out. It's not
so much that the Rockets are saying Jabari is clearly
better or more important than Tari. I think it's just
easier for them to project his future. Powall, what's your
assessment as far as the risk profile with Tari? Your
take on why these negotiations have taken a lot more time.

Speaker 3 (26:06):
Yeah, I think it's hard to read because well, there's
there's many things we can go on about. First of all,
dressing the entire day injury thing right makes me wonder
what the Rockets are actually offering him. Is he getting
offered the same thing the party got? How much lower
than that are we offering? Because I think from a

(26:28):
let's imagine, there's no issue, right, I think on most
teams Sari would take or would demand less than is
the higher pick. You know, he's you know, has the
high draft pedigree, he can play in a number of
different types of teams. He's a very more unique art
type in the league. Obviously shoots better, which is a

(26:50):
pretty big plus, performed better in the playoffs. I think
it's pretty the easier, the easiest way to get to
it is brand compared with with other guys, and Tarry
has a very comparable guy right on his team. Right
then makes me wonder, I'm assuming that's the silly I
don't think Tari is asking for more than Jabari. I
don't think it would make sense from our real life

(27:13):
perspective without trying to bring in the injury. And when
you factoring the injury, then it's a homework that they
shouldn't be higher than Jabarti's mainly because well, I know,
in the NBA we like to sometimes close our eyes
to a lot of these details because young guys often
get paid based on potential. Right You're either you either

(27:35):
have potential to be a star, in which case you're
going either going to be overplaid early on, or you don't.
And a lot of time, a lot of times when
you sign deals as a guy that doesn't really project
to be a superstar, you're going to get, you know,
very budget deals in your in your in your first contract,
you're typically still underpaid. We can go back and I'm not
going to talk about the specific number, We'll get into

(27:55):
that in a little bit, but just talking about the
last two drafts. I think very easily would argue Dandiha
from the Portland rail Wizards at this point back then
with the Wizards got under pay. I think he's underpaid
right now. Geoff creeing the same thing. A Kung will
probably a fair deal. Devin wassel at the time. He's
obviously not projected to be what people thought it would be,

(28:17):
especially with less use it. But I think at the
time the oney that he got, he was underpaid. Ernie Smith,
the surer from the Pacers who who was just essential
in a playoff runt got a three year, thirty three
million dollar dealer, and I think he was the eleve
one's pick from memory. And I'm having an after doub
Peyton Pritchard's same thing got severely underpaid. Right. Guys that

(28:39):
don't necessarily projected have superstar upsite typically get underpaid on
the same draft class. Obviously, Amiable was already a star Stone,
no questions there, Anthony Edwards was already start no questions
there that Yrys Telliburton the same thing. But look at
Desmond Bay right, Desmond Blaine is a guy that has
a superstar upside, or at least the second best guy

(28:59):
on a on a championship team pending on construction. He
got tow one hundred million over five years, right, So
there's a very big delta from guys that project to
be role players to guys to project to be superstars.
When you're paying their first rookie extension, you're most of
the time planning on upside, and upside comes at a
very high premium. So from that perspective, Sarry is obviously

(29:23):
on the on the role player type of contract extension.
And so I think placing the sibling actually boris you
and you're just is fine, especially considering the injury, which
makes me think what are the Rocks actually actually offering
and how concerned are they with the injury history? Because

(29:43):
if I'm Tarry, right, if they offer me, like Jabari
just got by over twenty two yeah, but that's basically
what twenty four million a year if I'm a mistaken
roughly no, yeah, roughly yeah. So if you offer Tory
twenty million a year over, I think he probably tries
to push for a little bit more, maybe some incentives,

(30:04):
But I think that's a pretty fair evaluation considering that
on your own team, you've set the president at Jabari. Right,
when you bring into it the metrics in the playoffs,
you know, advanced metrics may classify him as a as
having the worst playoffs than what your typically your typical Fox.
Of course, that's say he had like a lower points
per game season but average, but he also played least

(30:28):
minutes his She shot thirty seven percent from three, which
makes me think on three times a game, which makes
me think that he didn't necessarily have you know, playoff gittacter.
I think those typically show up more in the shooting. Right,
he got still in a block on eighteen minutes a game.
If you ever get out of thirty six, which is
obviously fall, that's over two that's over four stocks a game.
So he still had an impact as far as you know,

(30:50):
the Terror Twins, Moniker and all of that and causing
a little bit of chaos. Obviously the Warriors are attoughtamed
to do that against. But this to say that he
still was some more impactful, but he wasn't as impactful
as Gbari was. I think that's it's not questionable at all,
and so that helps Rocket's voices ceiling at what LABORI
got you perform worse than Jabari? You are a word

(31:12):
shuter than Jabari, and it's easier to find six eight
defensive wings than it is to find six'. Ten not
sharp shuter at this, point but guys that project to
be sharp, sitters that can switch one through five and
all the type of that type of. Stuff so you
should be. Both it should be Bought, jabari and then
you should be both To jabari because of your injury
history as. Well, Right and SO i think that it's

(31:33):
an easy argument to, make and it's a reasonable argument
to make to His ah and to En toutorry. Himself
so four million below and AN a from an av
standpoint makes sense to. Me, now What i'm thinking might
be the issue here is on many, years we've talked
about this before as far as extensions, go but when

(31:54):
you're not a max, guy typically there's a massive incentive
for teams to give as long a deal as possible
as long as the guy doesn't really have. Bus but
they're still another Think tory has much of a bus
potential other than the, injury and so or wise that
because these are going to be fixed, numbers, right they're
not tied to a percentage of the cap most, likely

(32:15):
and so as the cap typically outperforms the eight percent
raises that you get in in bird. Rights they might
not net here, specific but they tically, do which means
that the contract gets more friendly as the contract goes, on,
Right and that's when you, start and that's when you
have to start looking at the. Age, Right kibari is

(32:36):
younger than. Tired torry is twenty four years old today
and he's going to be twenty four injury in the.
SEASON a five year deal means he hits free agency
at twenty. Nine, nowadays twenty nine is okay for you
to still get another five year tacked on top of,
that or a four year deal if you hit free,
agency but it's still not. IDEAL i think if you

(32:56):
are a, team you're probably more comfortable getting a four
year deal to a guy that's twenty, eight maybe twenty, seven,
right even if it isn't based on, upside it's based
on the security that the team that times you will
have that your skill set won't fall. Off and especially
the guy that broke has an athleticism to the fan multiple.
Positions that makes. Sense, now that might be a little

(33:17):
bit of an outlat of mentality because While Dordian Finnis
smith just got paid being thirty or thirty three or thirty.
Four don't have it off the, top uh and it's
thirty two all, Right but he got paid for four.
Years that's that's that's where the computer came. From so
four years up until he will be on the older.
Side it got N who's an example of a three

(33:37):
IN dw wing that got paid until he was really
open in age Forward covington got paid until it was
really in Age so guys three indie wings are getting paid.
Still BUT i DO i do understand from an agent,
standpoint you probably want to be getting your second contract
around age twenty seven to twenty, eight not age twenty,
nine which is WHAT i would have with five. Years

(33:58):
the question is for The rockets if said not getting
five years and THAT aav has to lower because you're
not getting as much of an. Incentive but if you're
giving up value at the end of the contract by
having one fewer, years then you probably need a LOWER
aav to make up for, that right for that upside
that you're. Losing at the same, time it started pressing

(34:20):
for a player, up which will make sense for a
guy that has some injury. Concerns at this. Point The
rockets have shown to be very averse to player. Options
the only CONTRACT i can remember that has a player
option is threatened with Steal green.

Speaker 2 (34:37):
Did but there's a very specific reason for that That
i'll get into in a.

Speaker 3 (34:39):
Minute go, On, Yeah Fred neal is completely. Different it's
not as long. Term it's one. Year if he took
a massive play, cut it makes sense for him to
have that player option and it won't affect The rockets
planning for next, season whether it takes there or. Not
tarry easan jumping from you know, what let's call at
a twenty three twenty four million dollars deal in twenty

(35:02):
twenty nine or twenty thirty versus sim jumping from that
twenty that twenty five million figure. Too, well at that
point with the cap space from those, years which will
be massively, increased probably by about fifty, percent you're talking
about a contract that's twenty five which would come from
a cap hit from twenty five to or probably thirty
five forty million at that. Point that's probably what will

(35:24):
a role player will get paid by that. Point having
that jump b a year early is, massive and especially
when where you cantrually tell if we're gonna have that
jump or, not because at any Point clorin may get
hurt and now you have you can that extra. Year
SO i Don't The rockets seem to be very mindful
of cap planning further, out AND i think that's something
that really gives them any edge versus all the, teams

(35:47):
and they've been complemented for. It and having you know
that edge means that you're not open PRO i would
guess you're not open to giving player, Options so that
might be a sticking point as. Well AND i don't
know if you, WELL i was going to move on
to comparisons to other, extensions BUT i don't. KNOW i
FEEL i don't know if you're on a kind of
qualify That Town green stuff and any other point that
you may want to make BEFORE i get into the

(36:09):
more nerdy.

Speaker 2 (36:09):
Stuff, Yeah i'll just point out for, starters THE fred
extension because the player option is in twenty, six it's.
Irrelevant the years of concern for The rockets are twenty
twenty seven, onward and that's WHERE i think they'll be
sticklers for player. Options, now some might, say why did
they Give Jalen green a contract that has a player

(36:32):
option in twenty. Seven, WELL i don't think they one
hundred percent knew this time a year ago that they'd
be where they are right now and that their future
outlook would be what it is at the. Moment AND
i still don't think they wanted to Give Jalen green
that player. Option that's something they don't give out much
of in The Rafelstone Eli whitest. Era BUT i just

(36:52):
think when you look at the other alternatives For Jalen,
green it would have been way too risky to Give
Jalen green a five year. DEAL i don't think you
Have Kevin, durant at least not on the terms that
you currently. Do if you had Given jalen the five year,
DEAL i think The suns would have found that too.
Risky they want an, Out they need an out If

(37:12):
jalen doesn't hit at the higher, levels which is what
the shorter term deal. Does it gives some protection to the.
Team and then if you had just drawn a hard
line and, said, well you don't take a deal on our,
terms we'll just wait until twenty twenty five or stricted free, Agency,
well if you had done, That Jalen green would have
been untradable this. Offseason he would have been untradable until

(37:33):
at least the twenty six deadline. Window so getting a
deal done With Jalen green during that negotiating window last,
year that rookie scale, window they had to do it
if they wanted the option to use him as salary,
filler which they ultimately did to bring In Kevin, Durant
and the player option was simply the cost of doing.

(37:53):
Business in my, opinion it was either the player option
or going five, years AND i Think jalen just had
not any still hasn't proven enough consistently to where you'd
feel comfortable giving him a max or near max deal
for five. Years that's too risky to the, team too
risky to his future trade. Value so that's WHY i
Think jalen was a total outlier as far as the team.
Option it was the cost of doing business if you

(38:15):
wanted to avoid five years and avoid having him as
a restricted free agent and thus be untradable without his
consent this.

Speaker 3 (38:21):
Offseason, yeah and there's an ext STRA i kind OF
i thought this was, great this is what you were
going to talk about, then and double TechEd real. QUICK
i just searched it. Up and there's another, thing which
is jiln breamsdeal was not a max. Contract the player
option came at the exact point where he became eligible

(38:44):
for the for the seven to nine year. Max so
you have the first type of max, deal and then
you have a little jump when you complete six years of,
service and then you have another jump on your templus,
years which is the full on max if you are
if you don't become eligible for it through ALL nba
teams ARE mdb or or all of that. Stuff so
the player often comes in at the end of six,

(39:06):
years which in the case when j one, hits makes
him be able to hit frequency again at the point
where he makes that, jump which is disproportionate when you're
not on a max deal and is not really an
issue for most guys if they are on max deal
because it just doesn't matter as much at that. Point
so there was an extra incentive. There BUT i don't
know if you had anything else.

Speaker 2 (39:28):
To segue into the. Numbers SO i think there are
generally three schools of, thought and there's, one AND i
think we're in alignment on what it is that in between,
paths and that's WHY i Think collinger's proposal of three
for sixty five to seventy million makes a lot of.
Sense SO i agree with you as far as the.
Parameters the upper level would be average annual value around

(39:51):
What shabari, got around twenty four million a. Year you
can't justify at this point in time paying him more
given the injury. Risk lower end is going to be
About i'd say sixteen seventeen million, annually because if you
go any lower than, that you'd be in mid level exception.
Territory And tari's a better, player assuming relative health than

(40:14):
An emily type. Guy SO i think we're looking at
somewhere between sixteen and twenty four million in average annual,
value probably around the, midpoint which is about twenty and
so we're talking about, years and we're talking about player,
options AND i mentioned the three. Paths the REASON i
think it's going to be in that in between. Range you,

(40:35):
know the first path would be five year, deal most money,
possible along the lines of What shabari. Got you could
make the argument that Maybe, tari after the health, scares
wants as much financial security as he can. Get but
if that was the, case why wouldn't a deal already
be done if both sides were willing to do, that

(40:55):
And tari was committed to taking the best offer he
could get from The, rockets and they're the only team
that can offer him a deal in twenty, five just
to get that financial security as soon as. POSSIBLE i,
mean there's risk of waiting Until october the. Deadline the
period Between july, first when the windows, started And october twenty,
first injuries can happen. THEN i mean that's when he

(41:18):
first started having the stress reaction after his rookie. Season
it started in the off, Season so there's risk in.
Waiting If, tari if his appetite for risk was so
low that he wanted as many years at as much
money as he could, GET i think a deal would
already be done and The rockets would love to have
the financial certainty that comes with. That he hasn't done

(41:39):
The jabari deal or anything like. IT i think probably
a little bit. Lower you mentioned five for one hundred.
EARLIER i don't think that's where we're, headed, because in my,
opinion if it, was a deal would already get. DONE i,
mean maybe you can argue that his agent thinks he
can leverage The rockets into giving a little bit more by,
waiting BUT i don't. Know i'm skeptical of. That the
other path THAT i don't think is happening is waiting

(42:01):
until twenty. SIX i think it's, possible BUT i don't
think it's the preferred route for. Anybody because both The
rockets And, tari the reports we've seen this offseason have
suggested hope that a deal can be. REACHED i think
you would be setting the table if either side wasn't
confident in reaching a deal this. Offseason you don't want

(42:23):
this to be a storyline heading into training camp in the.
Preseason you would want to table it and, say and
there's an easy way you can justify tabling. It you can, say,
look this is a very unique risk profile given the.
Injuries he just needs to go out and have a healthy.
Season maybe he wants to bet on himself to use
The fred end fleet line and just wait until he
posts a healthy. Season he'd be in a better position

(42:45):
to negotiate next. SUMMER i guess maybe that's counteracted a
little bit of being restricted, reagent and now that's depressed
markets for the restricted guys this. Summer but the point,
is if it just wasn't possible to get a. Deal
if the sides were just so far, apart you wouldn't
have the leaks that they're. Hopeful you would have framing
that this just isn't the right time and both sides

(43:07):
need to see what. Happens tai would be in a
better position to, negotiate and The rockets would have more
confidence in their investment if he goes out and has
a strong. Season but we're not hearing those. Leaks the
leagues we're hearing are that both sides are. Hopeful so
what that tells me is that it's somewhere in. Between
it's not wait until twenty, six but it's also not
a five year deal at the most guaranteed money, Possible

(43:30):
and SO i think we're probably looking at a compromise
scenario where both sides get a little bit of, protection
just like with The Jalen green. Deal if it's two
or three, years the team gets the protection of not
investing five years at a relatively high average annual value
if the player goes. Busted In tari's, CASE i think
it's probably more related to injury than his style of,
Play BUT i think the same principle holes and then

(43:53):
the player is protecting his upside a little bit by
being able to get his next contract sooner if that
boom scenario. Hits but WHERE i think things are different
Between jalen And, tari and this is WHERE i think
there's a sticking. POINT i can't see The rockets giving
a player. OPTION i think they did with fred a

(44:13):
couple of months, ago because that's twenty six that's largely.
Unconsequential but when we get into these years where the
second apron is going to be in, play they want
as much certainty as, possible and so leaving yourself open
to a scenario where the player can play his way
into a much larger contract prior to his free agency

(44:37):
simply because of that, option that's, risky especially when it's
not within your control to just let them. Go, okay,
well they could opt in that lack of control in
that twenty seven and beyond, window that's. RISKY i don't
see The rockets doing. IT i know they did With
jalen THAT i think that's a fairly unique. Case and
they also weren't as one hundred percent soul on being

(45:00):
a contender in that window the way they are right.
Now SO i Think tari would love a. Deal obviously
not the same average annual value Because jalen was in the.
Thirties tarry's not going to get, that BUT i Think
tari would love. Something hollinger proposed three years for sixty
five to seventy, million which would be average annual value

(45:20):
a little over TWENTY i think that makes a ton of.
SENSE i Think tari and his agent would love that
deal with a player option after the second. Year that to,
me is too risky for The, rockets AND i think
that's where we're at with these. Negotiations and the good
news is that this is such a small gap that
sooner or LATER i think the sides can come. Together
but my gut tells me that's the sticking. Point AND

(45:44):
i don't think the band is as narrow as, three you,
know sixty five to. SEVENTY i think it could be
as low as aby three for fifty, five as high
as three for. Eighty, AGAIN i think anywhere within that
average annual value manage of sixteen to twenty four is in.
Play BUT i just think it's the player. Option the
rock want the certainty And tari and his agent want
the upside Of hey if he hits he if he

(46:06):
gets healthy and gets back on that Young Kawhi leonard trajectory,
again he wants the ability to opt, out especially saf
he's an older player, anyway and so he's not that
far out from his true prime, Years Unlike, JABBARI i
think that's the sticking. Point and so my guess is
that's where we're. Heading a deal that's not five years
but also not super. Short and it just comes down,
to you, know it's less about the average annual value

(46:28):
and it's more about the, years the, flexibility and both
sides are just trying to negotiate the best deal they Can.
Ultimately that's why my gut tells me a deal gets.
Done this is pretty small in the grand scheme of.
Negotiations it's a manageable. Gap but that's my guess as
to where things are at three, years somewhere between fifty
five and eighty million in, value and the player option

(46:50):
potentially is the sticking. Point that's my. Guess. Powell you
want to throw out your nerdy, comparables AND i guess
the numbers that you've come.

Speaker 3 (46:58):
To, Yeah so the first THING i want to throw
out is we can't forget that this is only happening
Because jabari already sends this. Deal because up until the
last second of the extension win the last, season we,
Thought kalen, anything we're not going to get, extended and
then they, were which means that up until very, LIKE

(47:21):
i don't think either side caved at the end of the.
DEADLINE i think both sides were very, close and at
the end of the, deadline you, know someone caved on
a minor thing like maybe two million in aav something
close to, it, Right AND i think this is the
case as.

Speaker 2 (47:38):
Well and either WAY i mentioned throughout The shangoon comparable For.
JABARI i know they're different styles of, players BUT i
think in both, cases The rockets were very sold on
what their future projections would, be and so that's WHY
i think The rockets were very comfortable giving five years For. Shangoon,
NOW i know he's closer to the max Than, shabari
BUT i think that's why those are five your. Players

(48:01):
it's not That tari Or jaialen last year don't have
paths to where they could be in that same tier
as a. Player there's still absolutely a world Where tari
can end up a better player Than. Jabari but it's
Just jabbari is very, projectible there's no injury, risk and
so that's why they're confident in five. Years AND i

(48:22):
think it's the same thing With shingoon a year. Ago very,
projectable very, safe there's no way the deal ages, badly
and so that's why they're comfortable during the five. Years
that's WHY i think they're probably a little bit more
hesitant With. Tari sorry for, interjecting just wanted to mention
that when we were talking about The shingoon.

Speaker 3 (48:38):
Comparable, yeah and so personally we don't really have all
the information as far as What tares and the injury
looked like and looks like from a ultimok perspective for
the rest of his. Career but still as far as
injury grists are, concerned, Right, sorry is twenty four years,
Old he's going into his. Crime you don't really you

(48:58):
should have A you should limit your how much you
can credit an injury concerned at this point because of
how young he. Is that being, said only The rockets
know how much they should be worried about that injury.

Speaker 2 (49:10):
Case.

Speaker 3 (49:10):
Right my overarching point THAT i was trying to make
it AND i THINK i ended up making it is
THAT i think they're close AND i don't think there's
any major differences and, otherwise like at this point last
year For shingun And, jailan the reports weren't as optimistics
as they are with With turi right, NOW i, agree
and so makes me think and they got a deal

(49:32):
done and most people would agree That bajillen deal obviously
wasn't a good deal in, hindsight but The singun deal
was a Homer and SO i think With tarry they're
probably really. Close AND i think two million in A
gav or three million IN aav is less of a
sticking point than a player option or a team option

(49:53):
or a non guarantee or something like. That SO i
really do think that they're really, close and it's a
point of now that just you, know holding on to
until the last, second just like they did last year
to see which side. Caves BUT i do think that
at the end of the, DAY i don't think the
difference is large enough that it will make it too
restricted free. Agency that's my, bet obviously without it inside.

(50:16):
Knowledge but moving on from, THAT i wanted to go
into what deals have looked like for other. GUYS i
want to first point out that The Jbari smith deal
is the outlier when it comes to, timing so much

(50:36):
so that you look at the rest of THE nba,
obviously and the only guy THAT i signed rookie extensions
Are paul And Carol jial And williams and Chet, holmogen
who are the max, Guys at which, point, well there
was really much to negotiate, there so the deals already
were already got. There now when we look at, well
first let's establish it's not the same an extension on

(50:59):
a guy coming off that's going to restructive three agency
coming off as rookie deal that are typically, younger and
extensions with guys that are free, agents even if they
play the same. Position So i'm going to throw out
the mind all breaches of the, world THE dldn And
novis of the, world all of The premium three and
new wings That i've signed the extension that are already fed. Drugs, Right,

(51:22):
so looking at last year and two years, ago guys
that signed rookie extensions at below max value that are
kind of in the same bracket the. Story we have
higher obviously higher quality players than lower quality. Players But
i've ever not ever, DOUBTED i have calculated what the
cap hit was dead and what it would look like

(51:44):
now from AN aav, perspective basically two years ago to
Salary cup was. Well basically over the last two, years
each seedon Salary cup has come ten, percent which means
that a deal that was signed two years ago needs
to have ten percent attached to or added to it
for it to be what it was last, season and

(52:05):
the deal sign last season needs an extra ten percent
to be what it would be this. Season and with
all of that in, mind basically equating the deal toward
it to the pertentities of the cat that it would
be the season or if it was signed this season
obviously kicks in next. Season the numbers look like, this,
RIGHT i think on the on the higher upper on
the upper, end you Have claydon, McDaniels who was coming

(52:27):
off of a career year this. Season he wasn't as
good shooting from, three but obviously That timberwolves run to
The Western Conference. Finals with all of, that his sally got.
Boosted he signed for thirty one point six MILLION aav
on a five year. EXTENT i Think therrisan Obviously jan
mceniels has less of an injury. Concern torrisan's obviously is

(52:49):
not as good as he is and up to this,
point and he's not as important to the team As
claydon McDaniels was to The. Wolves at that, point got
to take in the consideration tied McDaniels was probab would
the third best player on The. Wolves, Obviously toy with
The rockets says lower down the backing, orders actually with K. D,
Gumming SO i think that shows us That torison should

(53:12):
be well below this. Number then you Have Tevin wastell
at thirty two point six. Million at that point of
En nostelle was looking like someone who had some startup
time as a shooting. Guard very, lengthy was coming off a.
Career you're shooting shooting from. Three, OBVIOUSLY i don't THINK
i think that's very very upper. End we've already established
that the upper end For tarvy is probably about What shavari.

(53:32):
Got that's probably the most valid. Comparison three More pheo
plays the same, position got thirty MILLION. Aav obviously on
the very upper. End this, season he obviously broke out
from a volume perspective and his percentages came, Down but
at that point he was a three year guy that
for the last three years head shot near forty percent
from three with more, length tentorian and a good, defender
obviously not as good As, story but being a high

(53:54):
volume forty, percent, well being a lengthy winn gives, you you,
know that type of money you. Have you Have Jellen
johnson who was coming up his breakout, year near all star,
numbers you, know some orward hub of playmaking type stuff as.
Well obviously a sweetlybol. Defender he got thirty three million a.
YEAR i think that's there's some upside projection on that as.

(54:15):
Well and he's obviously might knight it with the second Season,
white he's been very. Good so these are you, know
the not a, superstar but a very very very good
role player. Number right for guys that are already established as,
THAT i THINK i think we established from for the
upper level that torry ceiling Is Jabari smith's, number which

(54:35):
is twenty four million a year around. That, now look
get the lower, numbers, right there's three GUYS i want
TO i want to look. At There's Isaiah stewards from The,
bistons who doesn't play the same position and doesn't really
have as flexible of a skill, set as story, does
but he got eighteen. MILLIONAIRE i don't think in good
faith you can argue That harrison is a worse player

(54:59):
than Nasier stewarts or projects to. Be SO i think
the lower, end basically limit is eighteen. Millionaire there's two other,
options two other examples that kind of break them all a.
Little There's Josh, green who is making sixteen point six
or would be making sixteen point six million avy when
you work at what he would make if the accession

(55:22):
were to be signed the. SEASON i Think Jush green is,
underrated BUT i don't think he's gotten the chance to
or at that, point had shown the, chance had the
chance to show what his game is. ABOUT i think
he's a really good three AND d wing or maybe
a three IN d card on that kind of middle
ground between the. TWO i think he's the worst. POINT

(55:43):
i think he might he's the worst way THAN i S,
stewart So i'm going to throw him out. Completely and
then you Have Danny, abiha who is making sixty would
be making sixteen point five million a, year AND i
think we just an outlier from the perspective of he
haven't broken out. Yet the people weren't trually projecting him
to be what he is, today which is A you,

(56:04):
KNOW i think he has some star potential as, well
BUT i think due to that contract being signed before
he broke, out it's not really a valid. Comparison as.
Well it might look senseless to be throwing out these
numbers THAT i don't think are, comparable BUT i think
it makes sense for people who are really digging into
the numbers to show why these numbers don't really make

(56:25):
sense For tari even though they're lower than the minimum
that we've already, established these are, outliers. Right orry might
be an outlier, himself BUT i don't think he would
be to the extent of these. Guys and SO i
think we're working at two main. Numbers It's Isaias stewart
the lower end at eighteen, million and J. R smith
the higher end at twenty Four and that's a pretty big.

(56:46):
Delda but how does that help us projecting a? Contract?
RIGHT i think the difference between eighteen MILLION, aav as
long as it's a flat, contract the difference between eighteen
million eighty and twenty four MILLION aav is not a
deal breaker for couldn't be a deal breaker for the
team as long as they get five. Years and why is.

(57:09):
THAT i Think rockets can come to the table and
propose eighteen million aav right And tari asks for twenty.
FOUR i THINK i would be willing to go as
high as probably not to twenty four from a kind
of locker room dynamics, standpoint but up to the twenty
three If starry gave me the five. Years if sorry

(57:30):
doesn't want to give me so, Basically i'm willing to
give him What jarry was five years one twenty. TWO
i would Give tarry five years one eighteen if he
gives me the five years without any options on the other,
side If Tory eastan doesn't want to give me the five,
years he only wants to give me, Four i'm not
getting that. Value at the, End i'm probably not going

(57:50):
to twenty. Three i'm probably staking it twenty. One If
starry only wants to give me three, Years i'm probably
not breaking. Twenty If starry wants only wants a two year,
Deal i'm probably letting it go to free agency and
seeing what it looks like because at that point there's
not really any incentive for drugs to take the, DEAL
i don't. Think so this is say that obviously we

(58:11):
established the lower limit upper, limit and where we land
in THE aav scale to me is related to how
many years you're willing to, get which would make sense
and fits the. Timeline once you establish those two, limits
you're basically ninety percent confident that you're going to reach
the deal because the gap isn't hard enough for a

(58:34):
deal to break, down except for one, case which would
be there not being willing to sign more than two,
years which really doesn't make sense from the perspective of
a player that he himself has some injury concerns about, himself,
right he wants to lock up generational money on his first, extension.
Right SO i think this is a pretty good read
on what the situation might. Be you're you're sitting at

(58:55):
a point WHERE i would be very surprised if a
deal doesn't, happen and you can kind of imagine on
a sliding scale based on team, control how Much rockets
will be willing to pay for each year of team.
Control each year of team control means it means a
higher value per, year and basically you can use precedent

(59:17):
both within the team and outside of the team around
the league and, style AND i DON'T i don't think
these contract negotiations are really as complicated as probably Shan guns.
WERE i Think schenghu With, shangun it's really it was
a lot harder to kind of. Deter it was a
lot you could have much more extreme positions than you

(59:37):
can With tari which In gun you could be you could, say,
hey we don't think you're A max, guy And ingo
thinks he's A max, guy and all of a sudden
there's a breakdown in negotiations and nothing happens because there's
not really a middle ground between those two. Stemss With,
tarisan as we've just, established there is very much a middle,
ground and the delta isn't as, big and so you

(59:57):
can pretty confidently say that you're going to reach a
an agreement while at the same time not having it
agreed upon now and not having an agreed upon to the,
deadline because of how much inside that fighting scale you
can move up or, down and at that point it's
not really anybody. Caving it's more that while The rockets, established,
hey we have these four options for, contracts three, years

(01:00:20):
the four, years and the four and the five year
deal with different, davis which one do you want to?
Take and then at that point has NOT jabarti has
a decision on a sense to try and pick between those.
Options and at the same TIME i would argue that
tari is probably waiting on Them Thomas kaminga AND i

(01:00:44):
forget who the other guy is who is currently the
free Agent Judge. KIDDY i think at this Point burry
is probably waiting for those deals to.

Speaker 2 (01:00:55):
Use them as what the alternative, is, yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:00:58):
Yeah, no and and to see to see it to
himself and to use it As levett in the negotiations
And rockets do as, well which is why you hold
out if you hold out onto the last possible, second
which is why you can have this weird dichotomy where
both sides are very confident they'll reach the deal because
the frameworks dep and the options are, there but both
slides are holding out until the last possible second because

(01:01:19):
a new factor may arise that changes those. Negotiations so
you can at the same time not have a deal
in sight from a time, perspective but from a structural
perspective you're confident that the deal will be done, anyways
WHICH i think is something that to me was really
hard to figure. Out LIKE i spent a few hours
today trying to figure out how that would make, sense
because it's kind of hard to understand, why, well we're

(01:01:42):
close on a, deal but at the same, time you're
going to take a full we're and half more months
to reach an actual. Deal are you handling over you,
know two hundred thousand dollars, Here, no you're handling over
what you're willing to compromise from a your perspective versus
what av you get for those sex for years that
you're willing to, compromise so and then obviously plugging that

(01:02:05):
into with the possible factors that may alter the negotiations.
Altogether so, YEAH i THINK i don't. KNOW i THINK
i was already, lanky BUT i THINK i they a
pretty good health kind Of, yeah THAT i will.

Speaker 2 (01:02:17):
Say Isaiah, stewart according to spot, rack his cap hit
is fifteen million a. Year his apron salary is at,
sixteen BUT i think it would be eighteen if you extrapolate.

Speaker 3 (01:02:28):
All of the numbers are if this deal was signed this.

Speaker 2 (01:02:31):
Off, YEAH i just want to clarify. That, yeah that's
WHERE i think you. Were that's WHERE i thought you were,
going because, yeah inflating twenty twenty three negotiations to the
twenty twenty five Environment, Exactay.

Speaker 3 (01:02:40):
Well all of the numbers THAT i said are with.

Speaker 2 (01:02:42):
That AM i that makes? Sense just wanted to make
sure BECAUSE i saw the eighteen AND i was, LIKE
i think that's a little. Rich BUT i understand what
you're saying, Though, yeah, OKAY i think that's a fair
guideline as far as where things are. AT i agree
with you that it's more likely than not to get,
done simply because If tari wanted a deal strictly based

(01:03:03):
on the data and assuming full health moving, forward i.
E the most rose colored glasses, view if he was
held bent on, that you would hear a lot more
uncertainty about whether a deal would get done BECAUSE i
don't think the rockets are that close in that. ENVIRONMENT
i think they want to deal with accounts for that
risk and the fact that all indications are that the
sides are hopeful of the deal being. Reached that tells

(01:03:25):
me that a deal isn't that far. Apart it's just
in contrast To, jabari AND i think that's what sort
of threw everybody. Off people wondering why did the deal
With jabari get done so so. Quickly, Well jabari, is
as you Mentioned, paalo the outlier on a few. Levels,
really he's the only guy in the ENTIRE nba outside
of the true max guys that's gotten a deal. Done
SO i, think just at a few, Levels shabari is

(01:03:47):
a very rare. Case SHINOGOON i mentioned that as a
comparable from a year, ago but, shoot Even shangoon went
down to the deadline on that final deadline day Last,
october so it's really not that. Alarming most of these
negotiations do drag. Out jabari was an outlier for whatever.
Reason tari is more the. Norm but all indications are
the sides are close enough that a deal can probably get.
Reached the rockets have incentive to get a deal done

(01:04:09):
earlier for that, stability for that, knowledge and so my
bet is that a deal actually does get, done it
just may take until training camp In. October final POINT
i will, make AND i don't think you were disagreeing with, Me,
polo BUT i just want to clarify for the. Audience
you mentioned That Jalen seal wasn't good from a value,
perspective that's probably, right but it was better than not

(01:04:31):
doing a deal at, all because if you didn't do
a deal at, all he wouldn't have been trade eligible
this offseason other than working with him as a restricted
guy and then he would have all. Control and then,
conversely if you had done a longer deal With, jalen
that wouldn't have been as appealing to a team like
The suns because they would have been on the hook
more knowing what we now know About jalen after his fourth.

(01:04:52):
Season SO i agree with you That jalen deal wasn't
good from a value, perspective but you were still better
off to do it than not doing it with the
full benefit of. Hindsight that's the one distinction THAT i would.
Make does that make sense to?

Speaker 3 (01:05:04):
You, Yeah basically you're saying that or you're saying and
it is true that THE kd deal can't happen if
you don't Have Killan green signed to his contract because
The rockets wouldn't have the filler And fred Van blitt
would have to be the outgoing salary and at that,
point with that extra factor, In i'm not sure if
The rockets would have would have still done the deal
and because even If gaillon was restricted freacent and he

(01:05:28):
was willing to go to the sums as outgoing salary
as a restricted free, agent even if it's a thirty
million dollar, deal that only comes as fifteen million outgoing, yep,
right and it would have that plus One brooks, salary
which would be total up TO i think thirty five
million or something closed or thirty six, million which is
not enough to Match kady's fifty something million. Figure so,

(01:05:48):
yeah it was one hundred percent not a good value,
deal but it was still worth it to pay a
premium by Dumping givin's negative, deal which whatever premium that
would whether it was the second round picks or whatever it,
was it was still worth it to pay that extra
premium to be able to Make thedol still keeping. Thread,
basically at that point the picture, becomes would you rather

(01:06:11):
have not half bread and have two or second round
picks that you paid To Tom killen salary or would
you rather and we have now not have those second
round picks but half? Bread AND i think from the
perspective of a team that's trying to win, now you
would definitely rather have, friend AND i think the front
office would definitely rather have. Thread but before we move
on TO i think you're going to close, NOW i

(01:06:32):
will say that for the people walking there In Ruso westros,
fans the first ab for your dam was a four
bitch walk and everybody expect.

Speaker 2 (01:06:40):
And Then Christian walker popped. Out, yeah that's gonna be
the big. Question half a yard On albarez, day by the,
way but, yeah how much protection does he have behind?
Him Christian walker's gotten, better that's for, sure but there
was an issue When korea was in the four. Spot
there wasn't a lot of protection behind. Him he's really
picked up since going to number. Two so that's where

(01:07:01):
if they're going to stick yourd on at, four AND
i understand, WHY i Hope Christian walker stays good because
we saw in this first at bad a four pitchwalk
and Then Christian walker pops. Out that's gonna be the big.
Challenge there is gonna be a point where it's not
like The jose Of bray you, days where the lightup
just falls off a, cliff but there's a little bit
of a decline where you'd rather face the guy on

(01:07:21):
the on deck. Circle so Hopefully christian continues to do
what he's largely done since truly, fourth and it's capable
enough That jordon still gets some. Opportunities, anyway as far
as Our rockets, Podcast i'll close the loop On jalen
by saying, that, HONESTLY i think The sun's probably Preferred
jalen Than fred as, well not that his deal is universally,

(01:07:43):
positive but Unlike, fred who would largely be a salary.
DUMP i mean maybe if this went hard, enough you
can Say fred being a veteran point guard could be
something comparable To Chris paul a few years ago when
they found lightning in a bottle of THE cp three
in Book. Repiary but more, REALISTICALLY i think The sun's
in their situation they want the upside bet Of jalen as.
Well they just wouldn't want the upside bet if it
was a five year. Deal if it's two or, three

(01:08:05):
that's more, platable and SO i think for The suns as,
Well jalen and the deal that he's. ON i don't
think they necessarily Wanted, jalen but they did not want him.
Either there was enough there and the contract was reasonable
enough that it made sense for. Them it was a reasonable,
bet and that's where to put a bow on this entire.

(01:08:26):
Episode trust The rockets and these types of. Negotiations the
closest thing to a loss for Rafel stone in his
negotiating tenure would be The Jalen green. Negotiations that's the
one you could argue about the, most and it was
still at the end of the, day clearly a. Win
the other, contracts they are incredibly, positive incredibly team. Friendly

(01:08:52):
Sam quin OF Cbs sports recently referred to him as
the best negotiator in the game Raphel, stone that, is
And Eli whitis deserves a lot of credit as, well
because he really does their future financial. Planning i've been
told so you can trust The rockets that they're not
going to do anything. Irresponsible we have a, long long
sample in The refelstone administration of them getting deals done

(01:09:14):
on their. Terms and the fact that things are leaking
that a deal between The rockets And tari is potentially
doable by The october. Deadline that leads me to agree with.
You Follow it's probably a pretty small gap and a
deal is likely going to get. Done it's just a
matter of. Time MAYBE i hadn't considered what you threw,
Out palo as far as the idea that Maybe tari

(01:09:37):
and his agent are waiting for the restricted free agents
from this class to have their situations resolved so that
they can factor those numbers into. Negotiations that's absolutely, real
and perhaps also from a leverage, standpoint given Whatever tari
can threaten by waiting until twenty twenty. Six there's multiple
ways you can look at, it but, yeah that could

(01:09:58):
be another reason for. Waiting but, yeah reading between the tea,
leaves my guess is that the deal gets. Done my
guess is that it's not five, years BECAUSE i think
If tari was wanting to go down that, path there
would likely be a deal very similar to the one
that The rockets agreed to With jabari that was done
already around the same. Time my guess is that it's
something in, between something a little more, creative but the

(01:10:18):
gap is small enough to where it can probably be
bridged and a deal ultimately gets. Done that's my. Bet,
HOWEVER i suspect it probably takes Until. October that's not,
sourced just my guest reading the tea, leaves or at
least until those restricted free agent situations get, resolved maybe
closer to trading, camp which starts at the end Of. September,
ANYWAY i think that's where we'll rap things for, today

(01:10:40):
and if you want more content before our next, show
we should be back in early in the Mid. SEPTEMBER i
mentioned it being the dead, period so we'll have some
interview based. Shows but there Is EuroBasket and so all,
Friends shamoon is playing For, turkey so it's not that
there's no. Basketball Maybe shamgoon goes on a great run
and so if he, does we'll have that to react.
To but, regardless we'll have some content for Um september

(01:11:01):
before things get really really ramped up at the end
of the. Month the twenty ninth Is Media, day the
thirtieth is the opening of trading, camp and then preseason
opens On october, Sixth so even though it's quiet, now
we are just about a month away from things getting really.
Real and Then october twenty first is obviously the start
of the regular, season And october, twentieth a the day before,
that is a deadline for rookie scale contract, extensions most

(01:11:23):
Notably Tarry esen here In, houston as we've been discussing
for the past hour. Plus, anyway that will do it for,
today and if you want more content before that next
show whenever it, is the best place to get it is.
Online you can follow me on social media At benjubo's,
powow on their At Palo, ALVES, nba and this show
at the Logger. Line if you go to the Logger
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(01:11:44):
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complete we'll adjourn for tonight For. Paolo I'm. Ben thanks
to always for, listening and please come back soon for

(01:12:06):
another new episode of the Log line