June 25, 2025 • 23 mins
Wednesday’s show features immediate reaction to Fred VanVleet’s cheaper-than-expected contract to re-sign for two years and $50 million (player option on the second season). Topics include what VanVleet’s new deal could mean in terms of increased spending power for the 2025 offseason, as well as more uncertainty regarding the future role of Cam Whitmore in Houston.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to the Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven ninety.
The Logger Line. It's proudly served to you by car
Box Clutch City Logger. It is good o Red Nation.
(00:23):
Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready. The Logger Line starts now.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Welcome back to a special mini cast episode
of The Logger Line, as always served to you courtesy
of Houston's Carback Brewing. I'm Ben to Vows, your host,
editor of USA Today's Rockets. We are at contributor to
(00:50):
Sports Talk seven ninety, official Flag Show radio station of
your Houston Rockets. We're talking midday, Wednesday, June twenty fifth,
Draft Day around the NBA. Going to have a mini
cast today responding to the Rockets getting Fred Vanfleet on
a new contract two years fifty million dollars with a
player option next summer. Phenomenal work by Rafelstone and the
(01:11):
Rockets front office. If you go back to our Logger
Line archives, I had thought that three years for ninety
to one hundred million dollars was where this deal would
likely come in at when you factor in how dependent
the Rockets are on Fredman Fleet, and that's even more
so after adding Kevin Durant. I thought Fred would draw
a hard line in the sand in these negotiations, because
(01:34):
there was no world where the Rockets would want to
let him go for no compensation and not have him
on their roster next season. That would be devastating, especially
now that you have a clear win now emphasis around
a thirty six year old superstar inkd So I thought
Fred would basically negotiate off of what would have been
a forty five million dollars salary that was the team
(01:56):
option figure, because obviously the Rockets were not going to
let him walk, and then try and add more onto
that for year two and perhaps year three. All that
really happened was that he added five million more in
guaranteed money. Now, I guess he does get the player
option next summer, which gives him some leverage to potentially
recoup some of this at that time. But by and large,
(02:18):
what happened here Fred Binfleet lowered his annual salary next
year from potentially forty five million all the way down
to twenty five million, and all he's getting in additional
guaranteed money is five million more. The bottom line, he
just did the Rockets a solid and I guess this
speaks to the power of relationships in the modern NBA,
(02:41):
and maybe it's something we'll see more. With salaries exploding
at the rate they have in recent years and Fred
making above forty million dollars in each of the last
two seasons, maybe he's at a point where he's made
enough money that he's willing to give some of it
back to help the team have a better chance of
contending for a championship around him, because ultimately that's what
(03:01):
this does, and maybe we'll see it later this offseason.
With Kevin Durant. We heard Scham's sort of hint at
he did an appearance on the Pat McAfee show on Monday.
Scham's hinted at the possibility that Kad might give a
little bit of money back signed for below the max
so that the Rockets could put the best possible roster
around him. Now, he's not going to sign for nothing.
(03:23):
The same is true with Fred. There's a balance between
giving something back while also being compensated fairly. But the
bottom line, this Houston roster is going to get much
more expensive as the years progress. All for in Shangoon
is going to be on the first year of his
extension next season, the year after that, Javari Smith and
Tari Easton the year after that, and then Thompson will
(03:43):
almost certainly be on a full max contract. So every
dollar you can say, for guys like Kevin Durant and
Fred Van Fleiet, your veterans, it's important. And perhaps these
are guys that have already earned so much over their
careers and clearly want to contend for championships. Maybe that
makes them all the more likely because strictly financial negotiating leverage,
(04:08):
Fred could have gotten a better deal than this. But
what happened here by lowering his annual value from as
much as forty five million down to twenty five that
gives the Rockets significant space beneath the luxury tax, which
is important on a couple of fronts. For starters, it
delays when your clock will start, as far as the
(04:31):
repeater tax penalties and everything that comes with the new
collective bargaining agreement in the NBA, and how restrictive it
can be from a team building perspective to teams that
are consistently spending well into the luxury tax and beyond.
You hear second ap front, all the time these days,
and it's because these teams that get super expensive unless
(04:51):
they're winning at a crazy high level, and sometimes even
if they are that certainly if they aren't, we're seeing
it with teams like Boston and Phoenix selling off. Longer
you can wait on having a super expensive team, the better.
But more importantly, when it comes to what I think
US fans care about the most, which is can the
Houston Rockets win a championship as soon as next season?
(05:13):
By not going into luxury tax territory, the Rockets have
access to the full non tax player mid level Exception,
which starts at an annual salary of about fourteen million dollars,
and they can use that to backfill either, however you
look at it, the Jalen Green spot or the Dylan
Brooks slot, Because when the Rockets did the KD trade,
(05:36):
they sent out two starters in Jalen and Dylan for
one in KD. So even if KD is better, and
he certainly is, he's not going to fill everything that
Jalen and Dylan gave you last season. And those were
two above average starters. Let's not act like these were
bad players. They were not by any stretch of the imagination.
(05:57):
There are minutes to fill, and you could have gambled
on Cam Whitmore I'll get to him in a minute
to fill those But if you want to compete at
the highest level, it makes sense to bring in someone
in free agency, which they can now, that has a
higher floor, that is much more certain and able to
help you win. Now, so you look at wing players
(06:20):
who could replace Dylan Brooks, I think you should probably
look at it as Kadi replacing Jalen Green, because even
if they're not technically the same position, we're talking about
the same role, the leading scorer, the A one, So
it's back filling the Dylan role that we're largely talking
about now in terms of three and D. So you
(06:40):
can look at someone like a Nikail Alexander Walker, a
Gary Trent Junior who's not necessarily a defender, but he
is an elite three point shooter, high volume almost forty
two percent last year, and perhaps you don't need as
much defense because you can scale up Tarry Easen to
fill some of that Dylan role. So someone like a
Girl Trent Junior and Nikhil Alexander Walker, Bruce Brown, who
(07:04):
I think has some past history with Ime Udoka, or
maybe it's just that Emay has spoken well of him,
but he certainly feels like an Emay player. Those are
options that, with having access to the full non taxpayer
mid level exception in an environment where not many teams
have salary cap space at all, are suddenly very realistic
candidates to join the Rockets next season. I do not
(07:27):
have any intell just yet on which it's likely to be,
but these are options that leading up to the June
thirtieth date, in which you can negotiate all around the
league externally with other teams free agents. I think those
are the types of players that you're gonna hear, and
those are the options that conceivably could fill the other
spot with Katie stepping in for Jalen Green in terms
(07:49):
of role, and whoever you could sign with the non
taxpayer mid level exception, which is suddenly available to you
with Fred's annual salary going down so much, that could
to some extent replace the So this gives the Rockets
a ton of spending power that we didn't think they
would have going into this offseason. It's going to be
fascinating to see what they do with it now. I
(08:09):
will say, while they have access to the full non
tax PERIMID level exception, I don't think you will see
them go crazy in terms of total years on any
deal they give out. It's not a coincidence that the
Fred VanVleet deal is for two years, and that's because
there is some concern about the twenty seven to twenty
eight season, which will be the start of Amn Thompson's
(08:30):
max extension and the second year of whatever extension Kevin
Durant gets. That's where this payroll could go well beyond
the luxury tax, perhaps into the second apron and so
they've got to be very careful with the money they
have on the books for that season. It either needs
to be cheap enough to where the player would clearly
have positive trade value they could easily offload it, or
(08:54):
ideally not beyond the books at all to give them
maximum flexibility. So I think what you'll see the Rockets
do is offer the non taxian mid Level exception, but
for one or two years, or perhaps it will be
one of those situations where they offer it technically for
three or four years and the player's agent acts like, oh,
you got the full NTML for three or four years,
(09:16):
but then you learn later on that after year two
there's a team option. The Rockets are going to prioritize
flexibility because when amend starts his max deal at thirty
percent of the cap and Kevin Durant is still in
all likelihood on the books. We heard Sean say on Monday,
that's Saint Pat McAfee interview, that both KD and the
Rockets plan on him finishing his career in Houston, which
(09:37):
makes all the sense in the role at his age
and with the win. Now emphasis that the Rockets are
clearly in coming off at fifty two and thirty season
number two in the West, and now you're adding an
all star, former MVP, future Hall of Famer, all of
that good stuff. They are worried about twenty seven and
beyond what that payroll is going to look like now,
it will probably resolve itself, at least to some extent,
(09:58):
when kad inevitably retires or scales down his role because
he's not capable of being a star anymore. But whatever seasons,
you have Katie at near peak form and all of
your young guys on their second contracts, most notably a
men Thompson getting into max territory. That's where financially it
could be very tricky for this team. They're going to
(10:20):
have a very fine line to walk, and so I
think that's why fred Steel is only two years. I
would be very surprised if you see the Rockets give
out the non taxpayer Emily for more than two years
guaranteed because of how it would limit them down the lot.
But even if it's only two years guaranteed, I think
that's going to be pretty powerful in an environment where
not many teams have capspace at all. Not many teams
(10:42):
have access to the full non taxpayer mL for that matter,
and those that do probably aren't in as good a
position to win as the Rockets are. In fact, the
Rockets might be the best team on the market that
can offer for those types of players both money and
a chance to contend. The only team that's clearly when
you look at the odds ahead the Rockets in the
championship hierarchy next season is Oklahoma City, which obviously just
(11:04):
won the twenty twenty five NBA Finals. Congratulations to them,
and the Thunder have a full rotation as is, so
I don't think you'll see them looking to add the
same types of players the Rockets are as good or
better than anyone in terms of their likelihood of contending
that they're going to be competing with on the open market,
and no one has more money other than you know,
(11:27):
I think the only team that has a ton of
money is Brooklyn and they're nowhere near contending, and so
they're probably even if they do spend that money, it's
not a guarantee that they'll do it in free agency.
They could look to take on bad deals via trade
and get draft equity for doing so. We know that playbook.
But even if Brooklyn did look to spend it, I
highly doubt they're looking for the win now role player
(11:49):
type guys that are available, you know, late twenties, early thirties,
the types of guys that the Rockets will be looking
for to back build that Dylan Brooks role. You know,
the analogy that I've used in recent pods is I
think you can probably find someone that gave you eighty
percent of Dylan Brooks's production for fifty percent of the price.
That's pretty much what's going to happen here, I think,
(12:10):
And that Dylan was making low twenties and average annual value,
you're going to be replacing him largely with this non
tax perier mid level Exception slot, which will be thirteen
fourteen million dollars a year on average annual value. I
mean it's a little about fifty percent, but not much,
and I think you'll be getting much closer to one
hundred percent when we're talking about the totality of their contributions.
(12:34):
The point is you can get some real quality players here,
and so what your rotation will look like in all
likelihood is Fred kd Amen, Jabari and Shangoon as your starter.
I've heard that Jabari Smith is likely to go back
to the starting lineup now, and then your top reserves
will be Tarry Eason's Steven Adams Reed Shephard as your
(12:55):
backup point guard. Small chance that you could have Aaron
Holliday still around as an insurance policy. See, but I
think they'll give every opportunity to read and then with
whoever you sign with the non taxpayer mL E slot
filling spot nine. That gets me to what I think
is another ripple effect. And while it's not a given,
the Rockets are never going to do a bad value deal.
That's something Rafelstone really believes in They're not going to
(13:17):
offload somebody just to offload them. But I do think
it's at least possible that we could be approaching the
end of the Cam Whitmore scent in Houston. We know
there were some questions already in terms of, you know,
the fit with emy Udoka. There was an awkward question
at the postseason press conference about the Rockets being very
clear with Cam what they needed from him to consistently play,
(13:39):
and he may not knowing where the lack of clarity
that Cam alluded to came from, because the Rockets feel
like they've been very direct with him. That in and
of itself was a little eyebrow raising. But aside from
any baggage from the last two years, what it comes
down to is minutes, assuming health, you can only play
nine guys man. We saw this last year when the
(14:01):
Rockets wanted to carve out more minutes for Reach Shepherd
and Cam Whitmore, but they couldn't, at least not consistently.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
Well.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
If you use the non taxpayer mle and your bench
now consists of Tari Stephen, this new signing as your
ninth guy, Cam Whitmore suddenly is in slot ten at best.
And I just don't think that's the best way to
use his value going into year three. Considered that after
the season ends, Cam will actually be eligible for a
(14:29):
contract extension the same year as a men Thompson, and
as I mentioned earlier, that's a key inflection point for
the Rockets financially. And I should also mention that Tari
and Stephen, unlike last year, are not believed to have
any medical restrictions going into this coming year. So we
talked about how difficult it was for guys like reading
Cam to play last year. That was with Tarri Stephen
(14:50):
being a little bit limited. This year, there aren't expected
to be any of those limitations the way things are
shaping up. Assuming the Rockets used that non tax payer
mid level exception, Cam is currently your number ten player
at best, I don't think assuming he has reasonable value
around the league, and I think he will based on
what he's shown in flashes over his first two seasons,
(15:14):
I don't think keeping him in a just in case
break class in case of emergency role is what's best
to maximize that value, because at some point you're going
to have to get clarity again he's extension eligible after
this coming season. You don't want to lose him for
no compensation, and quite frankly, in this scenario where you
(15:36):
keep him at the end of the bench and there's
no consistent playing time, he might want to leave because
he simply wants an opportunity to play more. So it's
not necessarily fair to Cam and it's not great for
you in that you know either he wants to leave
or you then have to pay him a much higher
salary when you're not even sure what his long term
value is and it's the spot where you're not even
(15:58):
consistently playing him. Is it worth it to pay Cam
big money when he hasn't consistently proven that he's capable
of having a consistent role for ima Udoka and you
don't even have a role for him to consistently play.
I think if he's not going to consistently play this year,
in year three, it makes all the sense in the
(16:20):
world to move him where he can play so that
whoever has him going into his extension eligible offseason has
a better indication of what his long term value might
be also has a spot for him in the long
term rotation to where it would be worth it to
them to make that type of investment, and from a
Houston standpoint, perhaps they trade back into the draft tonight.
(16:44):
We heard Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle report on
Tuesday that the Rockets had a few guys they were monitoring.
Brooklyn in particular, has three picks in the twenties. Now,
after all of that dealing, I highly doubt they roster
five first run fix So I could see the Rockets
perhaps shopping Cam w More to Brooklyn for a pick
in the twenties if one of their guys falls, or
maybe it's trading Cam for a future pick. The point
(17:07):
is you reset the well. If you trade for a
future pick, there's no contract on the books at all.
And if you trade for a pick in tonight's draft,
that player is on your books, but two years earlier
than Cam, so you're three years from any extension considerations.
And also it's easier not to play the guy if
(17:28):
you bring in a rookie. If you bring in say
Cedric Coward, let's say he falls into the late teens,
early twenties, that's someone I've heard the Rockets have some
level of interest in. If you were to bring in
Cedric Coward, it wouldn't be a hit to his development.
It wouldn't be awkward, it wouldn't be a hit to
your long term optionality if you don't play it, or
if you send into the G League. If you send
(17:48):
your three Cam Whitmore to the G League, or if
you don't play him, it's not good for his development.
It's not good for your long term finances because you
need to figure out what he's worth because he's soon
going to be up for an extension. It just doesn't
make sense as opposed to a rookie. Yeah, you can
buy more time, reset the contractable clock. It's just a
(18:09):
much cleaner fit. And then if you trade for a
future pick, in particular, I think having a twenty twenty
six pick, which the Rockets currently don't have any a
twenty six pick would give you optionality because as things stand,
you couldn't trade both of your twenty seven assets if
a really good player came available, or maybe you trade
Cam for a bunch of seconds to replace all the
(18:30):
seconds that you had out going in the Kevin Durant
deal a few days ago. Ideally you'd get a first
round pick for Cam and I think what he's shown
you in flashes the first few years is worthy of that.
But you know, beggars can't be choosers when it pertains
to market value. We'll have to see in the coming days.
But the point is if the Rockets go out and
bring in And I said the other day on the
(18:51):
pot that I'd be inclined to stay the course and
play Read Shepherd and Cam Whitmore and those eighth and
ninth spots off the bench. I said that was because
I didn't think the Rockets would have anywhere near non
taxpayer MLLE resources to fill that spot Externally. I thought
we'd be talking about guys that were available for you know,
pennies on the trade market, or maybe taxpayer mL E.
(19:15):
In this scenario, Yeah, the calculus changes because you can
bring in a real difference maker with this sudden nt
MLE availability that stands for obviously non tax premery level exception.
So Cam, I like him as a player. As a person,
he's been really good. Paul Georgie at the podcast right
after the KD trade where he talked about how he
couldn't believe that Cam didn't play more last year and
(19:37):
he thought he might be one of the better players
than the Rockets. He could be but the fit has
never seemed perfect. The Rockets have a lot of good
young players already. You might bring in another at least
somewhat young player with the mL and you might can
trade for a pick in tonight's draft. It doesn't have
to happen tonight. Well, let's be clear about that. Like tonight,
the draft is always an inflection point if the right
(19:58):
guy falls, but it if the Rockets ultimately use that
mL E. I'm skeptical on whether it makes sense to
keep Cam wit More on this roster, not because he's
not a good basketball player, it's just the fit in
year three. It does not make sense to have him
at the tenth spot or lower on your bench. If
you're going to have Cam on your roster, the best
way to maximize that value spot and maximizing value is
(20:20):
going to be more important to the Rockets and how
expensive they're getting. The best way to maximize that value
let him play to see what you've got. If the
minutes are not going to consistently be there, then in
my opinion, the value is better if you move on
and you get either a pick tonight, future pick, future seconds,
whatever the case may be, and you sort of reset
(20:41):
the clock, both from a development perspective and from a
contractual perspective. So that's the other ripple effect to watch
out for. You know, Cam with something the lottery ticket
fell the number twenty a couple of years ago. It's
great if it works out, it's great if the fit
is there, but they were never counting on him to
one hundred percent be a long term fie fixture here. Anyway,
(21:02):
that'll do it for today's episode. Just want to give
a quick overview again, Fred, he's really doing the Rockets
a solid. It's going to open up a lot more
financial pathway to have a better team around them. And
then as your young guys get into their second contracts,
I then Shingoon Shabari Tari Fred taking a little bit
less and hopefully Katie taking a little bit less later
this offseason will give you a little bit of wiggle
(21:23):
room to mitigate or blunt the impact of your young
guys getting more expensive. So bottom line, another really great
day for Rafelstone and the Rockets for an office, and
you should be feeling really good about this offseason and
really this entire franchise. If you're a fan, this upcoming
season is going to be really fun and the Rocket
should be in full contention mote. Not that they weren't
trying to win before, but with thirty six soon to
(21:45):
be thirty seven year old coming Durrant, Yeah, they're really
trying to win now. And so that's going to make
analyzing the rest of the off season much more eventful
and fun, because now we know the Rockets are going
to be looking for every last advantage they can find
if they truly try to pursue a championship. They are
all in right now, and I couldn't be more excited
to see this play out anyway. This is where I
will break for today again this episode of many cast
(22:08):
reactions to the new Fred van Fleet deal. We'll have
more extended reaction in our next full show, likely with
Palo Alves. But until we have our next full show,
if you want to keep in touch with me or
ask any follow up questions, the best place to do
that is on social media. I am on Blue Sky
at Bendubo's. This show is on Twitter slash x at
the logger Line. You can also follow Rockets Wire, the
(22:30):
blog for USA Today's Sports media group, or on the
editor on Twitter slash x at the Rockets Wire, or
just go the website Rocketswire dot USA today dot com
for all of your daily Houston Rockets news coverage. Also
those links and more, you can also find them at
the link tree, which is in the bio dot links
top friends sponsors partners of the program, but also distributors Apple, Google, Spotify.
If you have not already subscribed left to positive review,
(22:52):
please do. The links are in that link tree. Again.
I'm Bendubo's editor of USA Today's Rockets Fire. As always,
I appreciate you guys so much for listening, and please
go back soon for more new episodes of the logger
line The Rockets
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to the Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven ninety.
The Logger Line. It's proudly served to you by car
Box Clutch City Logger. It is good o Red Nation.
(00:23):
Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready. The Logger Line starts now.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Welcome back to a special mini cast episode
of The Logger Line, as always served to you courtesy
of Houston's Carback Brewing. I'm Ben to Vows, your host,
editor of USA Today's Rockets. We are at contributor to
(00:50):
Sports Talk seven ninety, official Flag Show radio station of
your Houston Rockets. We're talking midday, Wednesday, June twenty fifth,
Draft Day around the NBA. Going to have a mini
cast today responding to the Rockets getting Fred Vanfleet on
a new contract two years fifty million dollars with a
player option next summer. Phenomenal work by Rafelstone and the
(01:11):
Rockets front office. If you go back to our Logger
Line archives, I had thought that three years for ninety
to one hundred million dollars was where this deal would
likely come in at when you factor in how dependent
the Rockets are on Fredman Fleet, and that's even more
so after adding Kevin Durant. I thought Fred would draw
a hard line in the sand in these negotiations, because
(01:34):
there was no world where the Rockets would want to
let him go for no compensation and not have him
on their roster next season. That would be devastating, especially
now that you have a clear win now emphasis around
a thirty six year old superstar inkd So I thought
Fred would basically negotiate off of what would have been
a forty five million dollars salary that was the team
(01:56):
option figure, because obviously the Rockets were not going to
let him walk, and then try and add more onto
that for year two and perhaps year three. All that
really happened was that he added five million more in
guaranteed money. Now, I guess he does get the player
option next summer, which gives him some leverage to potentially
recoup some of this at that time. But by and large,
(02:18):
what happened here Fred Binfleet lowered his annual salary next
year from potentially forty five million all the way down
to twenty five million, and all he's getting in additional
guaranteed money is five million more. The bottom line, he
just did the Rockets a solid and I guess this
speaks to the power of relationships in the modern NBA,
(02:41):
and maybe it's something we'll see more. With salaries exploding
at the rate they have in recent years and Fred
making above forty million dollars in each of the last
two seasons, maybe he's at a point where he's made
enough money that he's willing to give some of it
back to help the team have a better chance of
contending for a championship around him, because ultimately that's what
(03:01):
this does, and maybe we'll see it later this offseason.
With Kevin Durant. We heard Scham's sort of hint at
he did an appearance on the Pat McAfee show on Monday.
Scham's hinted at the possibility that Kad might give a
little bit of money back signed for below the max
so that the Rockets could put the best possible roster
around him. Now, he's not going to sign for nothing.
(03:23):
The same is true with Fred. There's a balance between
giving something back while also being compensated fairly. But the
bottom line, this Houston roster is going to get much
more expensive as the years progress. All for in Shangoon
is going to be on the first year of his
extension next season, the year after that, Javari Smith and
Tari Easton the year after that, and then Thompson will
(03:43):
almost certainly be on a full max contract. So every
dollar you can say, for guys like Kevin Durant and
Fred Van Fleiet, your veterans, it's important. And perhaps these
are guys that have already earned so much over their
careers and clearly want to contend for championships. Maybe that
makes them all the more likely because strictly financial negotiating leverage,
(04:08):
Fred could have gotten a better deal than this. But
what happened here by lowering his annual value from as
much as forty five million down to twenty five that
gives the Rockets significant space beneath the luxury tax, which
is important on a couple of fronts. For starters, it
delays when your clock will start, as far as the
(04:31):
repeater tax penalties and everything that comes with the new
collective bargaining agreement in the NBA, and how restrictive it
can be from a team building perspective to teams that
are consistently spending well into the luxury tax and beyond.
You hear second ap front, all the time these days,
and it's because these teams that get super expensive unless
(04:51):
they're winning at a crazy high level, and sometimes even
if they are that certainly if they aren't, we're seeing
it with teams like Boston and Phoenix selling off. Longer
you can wait on having a super expensive team, the better.
But more importantly, when it comes to what I think
US fans care about the most, which is can the
Houston Rockets win a championship as soon as next season?
(05:13):
By not going into luxury tax territory, the Rockets have
access to the full non tax player mid level Exception,
which starts at an annual salary of about fourteen million dollars,
and they can use that to backfill either, however you
look at it, the Jalen Green spot or the Dylan
Brooks slot, Because when the Rockets did the KD trade,
(05:36):
they sent out two starters in Jalen and Dylan for
one in KD. So even if KD is better, and
he certainly is, he's not going to fill everything that
Jalen and Dylan gave you last season. And those were
two above average starters. Let's not act like these were
bad players. They were not by any stretch of the imagination.
(05:57):
There are minutes to fill, and you could have gambled
on Cam Whitmore I'll get to him in a minute
to fill those But if you want to compete at
the highest level, it makes sense to bring in someone
in free agency, which they can now, that has a
higher floor, that is much more certain and able to
help you win. Now, so you look at wing players
(06:20):
who could replace Dylan Brooks, I think you should probably
look at it as Kadi replacing Jalen Green, because even
if they're not technically the same position, we're talking about
the same role, the leading scorer, the A one, So
it's back filling the Dylan role that we're largely talking
about now in terms of three and D. So you
(06:40):
can look at someone like a Nikail Alexander Walker, a
Gary Trent Junior who's not necessarily a defender, but he
is an elite three point shooter, high volume almost forty
two percent last year, and perhaps you don't need as
much defense because you can scale up Tarry Easen to
fill some of that Dylan role. So someone like a
Girl Trent Junior and Nikhil Alexander Walker, Bruce Brown, who
(07:04):
I think has some past history with Ime Udoka, or
maybe it's just that Emay has spoken well of him,
but he certainly feels like an Emay player. Those are
options that, with having access to the full non taxpayer
mid level exception in an environment where not many teams
have salary cap space at all, are suddenly very realistic
candidates to join the Rockets next season. I do not
(07:27):
have any intell just yet on which it's likely to be,
but these are options that leading up to the June
thirtieth date, in which you can negotiate all around the
league externally with other teams free agents. I think those
are the types of players that you're gonna hear, and
those are the options that conceivably could fill the other
spot with Katie stepping in for Jalen Green in terms
(07:49):
of role, and whoever you could sign with the non
taxpayer mid level exception, which is suddenly available to you
with Fred's annual salary going down so much, that could
to some extent replace the So this gives the Rockets
a ton of spending power that we didn't think they
would have going into this offseason. It's going to be
fascinating to see what they do with it now. I
(08:09):
will say, while they have access to the full non
tax PERIMID level exception, I don't think you will see
them go crazy in terms of total years on any
deal they give out. It's not a coincidence that the
Fred VanVleet deal is for two years, and that's because
there is some concern about the twenty seven to twenty
eight season, which will be the start of Amn Thompson's
(08:30):
max extension and the second year of whatever extension Kevin
Durant gets. That's where this payroll could go well beyond
the luxury tax, perhaps into the second apron and so
they've got to be very careful with the money they
have on the books for that season. It either needs
to be cheap enough to where the player would clearly
have positive trade value they could easily offload it, or
(08:54):
ideally not beyond the books at all to give them
maximum flexibility. So I think what you'll see the Rockets
do is offer the non taxian mid Level exception, but
for one or two years, or perhaps it will be
one of those situations where they offer it technically for
three or four years and the player's agent acts like, oh,
you got the full NTML for three or four years,
(09:16):
but then you learn later on that after year two
there's a team option. The Rockets are going to prioritize
flexibility because when amend starts his max deal at thirty
percent of the cap and Kevin Durant is still in
all likelihood on the books. We heard Sean say on Monday,
that's Saint Pat McAfee interview, that both KD and the
Rockets plan on him finishing his career in Houston, which
(09:37):
makes all the sense in the role at his age
and with the win. Now emphasis that the Rockets are
clearly in coming off at fifty two and thirty season
number two in the West, and now you're adding an
all star, former MVP, future Hall of Famer, all of
that good stuff. They are worried about twenty seven and
beyond what that payroll is going to look like now,
it will probably resolve itself, at least to some extent,
(09:58):
when kad inevitably retires or scales down his role because
he's not capable of being a star anymore. But whatever seasons,
you have Katie at near peak form and all of
your young guys on their second contracts, most notably a
men Thompson getting into max territory. That's where financially it
could be very tricky for this team. They're going to
(10:20):
have a very fine line to walk, and so I
think that's why fred Steel is only two years. I
would be very surprised if you see the Rockets give
out the non taxpayer Emily for more than two years
guaranteed because of how it would limit them down the lot.
But even if it's only two years guaranteed, I think
that's going to be pretty powerful in an environment where
not many teams have capspace at all. Not many teams
(10:42):
have access to the full non taxpayer mL for that matter,
and those that do probably aren't in as good a
position to win as the Rockets are. In fact, the
Rockets might be the best team on the market that
can offer for those types of players both money and
a chance to contend. The only team that's clearly when
you look at the odds ahead the Rockets in the
championship hierarchy next season is Oklahoma City, which obviously just
(11:04):
won the twenty twenty five NBA Finals. Congratulations to them,
and the Thunder have a full rotation as is, so
I don't think you'll see them looking to add the
same types of players the Rockets are as good or
better than anyone in terms of their likelihood of contending
that they're going to be competing with on the open market,
and no one has more money other than you know,
(11:27):
I think the only team that has a ton of
money is Brooklyn and they're nowhere near contending, and so
they're probably even if they do spend that money, it's
not a guarantee that they'll do it in free agency.
They could look to take on bad deals via trade
and get draft equity for doing so. We know that playbook.
But even if Brooklyn did look to spend it, I
highly doubt they're looking for the win now role player
(11:49):
type guys that are available, you know, late twenties, early thirties,
the types of guys that the Rockets will be looking
for to back build that Dylan Brooks role. You know,
the analogy that I've used in recent pods is I
think you can probably find someone that gave you eighty
percent of Dylan Brooks's production for fifty percent of the price.
That's pretty much what's going to happen here, I think,
(12:10):
And that Dylan was making low twenties and average annual value,
you're going to be replacing him largely with this non
tax perier mid level Exception slot, which will be thirteen
fourteen million dollars a year on average annual value. I
mean it's a little about fifty percent, but not much,
and I think you'll be getting much closer to one
hundred percent when we're talking about the totality of their contributions.
(12:34):
The point is you can get some real quality players here,
and so what your rotation will look like in all
likelihood is Fred kd Amen, Jabari and Shangoon as your starter.
I've heard that Jabari Smith is likely to go back
to the starting lineup now, and then your top reserves
will be Tarry Eason's Steven Adams Reed Shephard as your
(12:55):
backup point guard. Small chance that you could have Aaron
Holliday still around as an insurance policy. See, but I
think they'll give every opportunity to read and then with
whoever you sign with the non taxpayer mL E slot
filling spot nine. That gets me to what I think
is another ripple effect. And while it's not a given,
the Rockets are never going to do a bad value deal.
That's something Rafelstone really believes in They're not going to
(13:17):
offload somebody just to offload them. But I do think
it's at least possible that we could be approaching the
end of the Cam Whitmore scent in Houston. We know
there were some questions already in terms of, you know,
the fit with emy Udoka. There was an awkward question
at the postseason press conference about the Rockets being very
clear with Cam what they needed from him to consistently play,
(13:39):
and he may not knowing where the lack of clarity
that Cam alluded to came from, because the Rockets feel
like they've been very direct with him. That in and
of itself was a little eyebrow raising. But aside from
any baggage from the last two years, what it comes
down to is minutes, assuming health, you can only play
nine guys man. We saw this last year when the
(14:01):
Rockets wanted to carve out more minutes for Reach Shepherd
and Cam Whitmore, but they couldn't, at least not consistently.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
Well.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
If you use the non taxpayer mle and your bench
now consists of Tari Stephen, this new signing as your
ninth guy, Cam Whitmore suddenly is in slot ten at best.
And I just don't think that's the best way to
use his value going into year three. Considered that after
the season ends, Cam will actually be eligible for a
(14:29):
contract extension the same year as a men Thompson, and
as I mentioned earlier, that's a key inflection point for
the Rockets financially. And I should also mention that Tari
and Stephen, unlike last year, are not believed to have
any medical restrictions going into this coming year. So we
talked about how difficult it was for guys like reading
Cam to play last year. That was with Tarri Stephen
(14:50):
being a little bit limited. This year, there aren't expected
to be any of those limitations the way things are
shaping up. Assuming the Rockets used that non tax payer
mid level exception, Cam is currently your number ten player
at best, I don't think assuming he has reasonable value
around the league, and I think he will based on
what he's shown in flashes over his first two seasons,
(15:14):
I don't think keeping him in a just in case
break class in case of emergency role is what's best
to maximize that value, because at some point you're going
to have to get clarity again he's extension eligible after
this coming season. You don't want to lose him for
no compensation, and quite frankly, in this scenario where you
(15:36):
keep him at the end of the bench and there's
no consistent playing time, he might want to leave because
he simply wants an opportunity to play more. So it's
not necessarily fair to Cam and it's not great for
you in that you know either he wants to leave
or you then have to pay him a much higher
salary when you're not even sure what his long term
value is and it's the spot where you're not even
(15:58):
consistently playing him. Is it worth it to pay Cam
big money when he hasn't consistently proven that he's capable
of having a consistent role for ima Udoka and you
don't even have a role for him to consistently play.
I think if he's not going to consistently play this year,
in year three, it makes all the sense in the
(16:20):
world to move him where he can play so that
whoever has him going into his extension eligible offseason has
a better indication of what his long term value might
be also has a spot for him in the long
term rotation to where it would be worth it to
them to make that type of investment, and from a
Houston standpoint, perhaps they trade back into the draft tonight.
(16:44):
We heard Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle report on
Tuesday that the Rockets had a few guys they were monitoring.
Brooklyn in particular, has three picks in the twenties. Now,
after all of that dealing, I highly doubt they roster
five first run fix So I could see the Rockets
perhaps shopping Cam w More to Brooklyn for a pick
in the twenties if one of their guys falls, or
maybe it's trading Cam for a future pick. The point
(17:07):
is you reset the well. If you trade for a
future pick, there's no contract on the books at all.
And if you trade for a pick in tonight's draft,
that player is on your books, but two years earlier
than Cam, so you're three years from any extension considerations.
And also it's easier not to play the guy if
(17:28):
you bring in a rookie. If you bring in say
Cedric Coward, let's say he falls into the late teens,
early twenties, that's someone I've heard the Rockets have some
level of interest in. If you were to bring in
Cedric Coward, it wouldn't be a hit to his development.
It wouldn't be awkward, it wouldn't be a hit to
your long term optionality if you don't play it, or
if you send into the G League. If you send
(17:48):
your three Cam Whitmore to the G League, or if
you don't play him, it's not good for his development.
It's not good for your long term finances because you
need to figure out what he's worth because he's soon
going to be up for an extension. It just doesn't
make sense as opposed to a rookie. Yeah, you can
buy more time, reset the contractable clock. It's just a
(18:09):
much cleaner fit. And then if you trade for a
future pick, in particular, I think having a twenty twenty
six pick, which the Rockets currently don't have any a
twenty six pick would give you optionality because as things stand,
you couldn't trade both of your twenty seven assets if
a really good player came available, or maybe you trade
Cam for a bunch of seconds to replace all the
(18:30):
seconds that you had out going in the Kevin Durant
deal a few days ago. Ideally you'd get a first
round pick for Cam and I think what he's shown
you in flashes the first few years is worthy of that.
But you know, beggars can't be choosers when it pertains
to market value. We'll have to see in the coming days.
But the point is if the Rockets go out and
bring in And I said the other day on the
(18:51):
pot that I'd be inclined to stay the course and
play Read Shepherd and Cam Whitmore and those eighth and
ninth spots off the bench. I said that was because
I didn't think the Rockets would have anywhere near non
taxpayer MLLE resources to fill that spot Externally. I thought
we'd be talking about guys that were available for you know,
pennies on the trade market, or maybe taxpayer mL E.
(19:15):
In this scenario, Yeah, the calculus changes because you can
bring in a real difference maker with this sudden nt
MLE availability that stands for obviously non tax premery level exception.
So Cam, I like him as a player. As a person,
he's been really good. Paul Georgie at the podcast right
after the KD trade where he talked about how he
couldn't believe that Cam didn't play more last year and
(19:37):
he thought he might be one of the better players
than the Rockets. He could be but the fit has
never seemed perfect. The Rockets have a lot of good
young players already. You might bring in another at least
somewhat young player with the mL and you might can
trade for a pick in tonight's draft. It doesn't have
to happen tonight. Well, let's be clear about that. Like tonight,
the draft is always an inflection point if the right
(19:58):
guy falls, but it if the Rockets ultimately use that
mL E. I'm skeptical on whether it makes sense to
keep Cam wit More on this roster, not because he's
not a good basketball player, it's just the fit in
year three. It does not make sense to have him
at the tenth spot or lower on your bench. If
you're going to have Cam on your roster, the best
way to maximize that value spot and maximizing value is
(20:20):
going to be more important to the Rockets and how
expensive they're getting. The best way to maximize that value
let him play to see what you've got. If the
minutes are not going to consistently be there, then in
my opinion, the value is better if you move on
and you get either a pick tonight, future pick, future seconds,
whatever the case may be, and you sort of reset
(20:41):
the clock, both from a development perspective and from a
contractual perspective. So that's the other ripple effect to watch
out for. You know, Cam with something the lottery ticket
fell the number twenty a couple of years ago. It's
great if it works out, it's great if the fit
is there, but they were never counting on him to
one hundred percent be a long term fie fixture here. Anyway,
(21:02):
that'll do it for today's episode. Just want to give
a quick overview again, Fred, he's really doing the Rockets
a solid. It's going to open up a lot more
financial pathway to have a better team around them. And
then as your young guys get into their second contracts,
I then Shingoon Shabari Tari Fred taking a little bit
less and hopefully Katie taking a little bit less later
this offseason will give you a little bit of wiggle
(21:23):
room to mitigate or blunt the impact of your young
guys getting more expensive. So bottom line, another really great
day for Rafelstone and the Rockets for an office, and
you should be feeling really good about this offseason and
really this entire franchise. If you're a fan, this upcoming
season is going to be really fun and the Rocket
should be in full contention mote. Not that they weren't
trying to win before, but with thirty six soon to
(21:45):
be thirty seven year old coming Durrant, Yeah, they're really
trying to win now. And so that's going to make
analyzing the rest of the off season much more eventful
and fun, because now we know the Rockets are going
to be looking for every last advantage they can find
if they truly try to pursue a championship. They are
all in right now, and I couldn't be more excited
to see this play out anyway. This is where I
will break for today again this episode of many cast
(22:08):
reactions to the new Fred van Fleet deal. We'll have
more extended reaction in our next full show, likely with
Palo Alves. But until we have our next full show,
if you want to keep in touch with me or
ask any follow up questions, the best place to do
that is on social media. I am on Blue Sky
at Bendubo's. This show is on Twitter slash x at
the logger Line. You can also follow Rockets Wire, the
(22:30):
blog for USA Today's Sports media group, or on the
editor on Twitter slash x at the Rockets Wire, or
just go the website Rocketswire dot USA today dot com
for all of your daily Houston Rockets news coverage. Also
those links and more, you can also find them at
the link tree, which is in the bio dot links
top friends sponsors partners of the program, but also distributors Apple, Google, Spotify.
If you have not already subscribed left to positive review,
(22:52):
please do. The links are in that link tree. Again.
I'm Bendubo's editor of USA Today's Rockets Fire. As always,
I appreciate you guys so much for listening, and please
go back soon for more new episodes of the logger
line The Rockets
Popular Podcasts
United States of Kennedy
United States of Kennedy is a podcast about our cultural fascination with the Kennedy dynasty. Every week, hosts Lyra Smith and George Civeris go into one aspect of the Kennedy story.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com