Reaction to Rockets’ 2024-25 schedule release

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to the Logger Line, an exclusive
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(00:22):
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Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, happy NBA schedule release day to talk about it. Well,
that's what we're going to be doing today here at
the Logger Line, your home for podcast commentary on all
things Houston Rockets basketball, as always served to your courtesy

(00:51):
of Clutch City Logger of Carback Brewing, their beer developed
in collaboration with the Houston Rockets. I'm your host, Ben
Jubo's editor of USA Today's Rockets Wire and contributor to
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Joined us. Always have a good friend, co host and
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on Twitter, slash x at Palo Alves, NBA. Me on

(01:13):
there at Ben Dubo's so as we're chatting this Thursday night,
August fifteenth. It's a big day on the NBA calendar
because every team in the association got its eighty two
game schedule for the upcoming twenty twenty four to twenty
five season, so we can all start planning out our
next eight months and many of our activities from late
August through mid April, hopefully longer than that for a

(01:34):
Rocket season that for the first time in a while,
has some realistic postseason ambitions. Not a given, but coming
off a forty one and forty one year and with
a lot of young talent that should get better. Also
the addition of guys like Steven Adams Reed Sheppard in
the offseason, a lot of us are very excited about
what this Rockets team can do. You also have all
for in Shaan Goon Tari Easton coming back from injuries.

(01:57):
So there's a lot to like about this Rockets team
and with this schedule, I think. So if you haven't
seen it, you can go to Rockets dot com or
any media outlet that you choose, the Chronicle, ESPN USA Today,
wherever you want to go, just search for the NBA
schedule and you can probably short it by team if

(02:17):
you're not already on a Rockets page. So if you
want to have that in front of you while you're
listening to us talk about it, feel free to do so.
But my initial thoughts are that this schedule sets up
pretty well for a Rockets team that, despite being relatively young,
actually has a lot more continuity than most NBA teams

(02:39):
because basically the entire rotation is back. The only newcomer
on day one that we know is going to be
in the rotation that wasn't last year Steven Adams, and
that's a fifteen minutes per day and backup center role
and a thirty one year old true professional who knows
who he is in the NBA. Other than that, the
starters are back. Ninety plus percent of the rotation is

(03:00):
the same guys you had from a year ago. The
coaching staff, led by im Udoka, is the same. So
in an NBA where so much upheaval happens each offseason
with free agency and trades and coaching changes, the Rockets,
despite being relatively young, do have a lot more advantages
when you think of continuity, chemistry players knowing each other.

(03:24):
Even though Jalen Green and all Prin Shangoon are really young,
these are perhaps your two most important players. They're going
into year four of playing together, so there are some
advantages when you look at how this Rockets team is
constructed that should have them more ready early in the season.
We know they finished strong last year, had the eleven
game winning streak, the twelve and one stretch in March,

(03:46):
and to be able to start with an opening eleven
games that only has three contenders in there, the Thunder,
the Mavericks, the Knicks. Other than that, a lot of
teams like the opener at home against Charlotte's second game
against Memphis, although the Grizzlies be a little better this
year getting John Morant, desbond Bayne guys like that back
from injury or suspension. You have the Wizards in those

(04:07):
opening eleven games. Hopefully the Rockets are finally due to
beat an Asian Warriors team that lost Klay Thompson in
the offseason. You look at the two games against San Antonio,
games three and four on the road. You also play
them again game eight here in Houston. I know the
Spurs with wenbe are getting better, but the Rockets on
paper are a better team. So you look at the

(04:30):
first eleven games again, eight are going to be I
would say neutral too clearly favored. The only games where
you're clear underdogs are the MAVs, the Thunder the Knicks,
and the Knicks are at home, so it's a very
manageable start. You broaden out a little bit. Eleven of
the first eighteen games are at home, and so for

(04:52):
a Rockets team that has advantages already when it comes
to continuity and also gets a little bit of an
easier start to the schedule, I think all the ingredients
are there for this team to start well. And I
think that's so important because in the year that's not
about contending, at least not at a championship level. It's
still about development. It's about learning more information. And so

(05:15):
if you get off to a good start and are
not just on the fringe of playoff contention for most
of the season, but hopefully squarely in that field, that
it makes all the games more important, and so it
puts your young players in the right frame of mind
to keep getting better throughout the season. Now there is
a tradeoff, and that as the year progresses, the schedule

(05:35):
does get a little more difficult. You have a stretch
from early January through early February where I think thirteen
of seventeen are on the road. You have a challenge
and closed to the year where you're playing a lot
of different playoff teams or potential playoff teams, at least
the Lakers, the Suns, the Clippers, the Nuggets, teams like
that down the stretch of the home stretch of the year,
the last seven or eight games. But by and large,

(05:58):
I think when you're a young team like the Rocket,
the advantages of starting fast outweigh the down side of
a more difficult close, especially because some of those playoff
teams that are on your schedule in March and April,
it may not be as difficult as it seems on
paper because a lot of those teams may be conserving
for the playoffs. We know March is often a weird

(06:19):
month on the NBA calendar, the season finale that week
the playoffs start. I highly doubt the Rockets are facing
a Denver team that's playing both Nikola Jokich and Jamal
Murray for starters minutes, unless somehow they're right on the
playoff slash play and cut line, which I can't really
see that happening. So that's just one example. The Nuggets
the home season finale in Houston, where it's more difficult

(06:42):
on paper than it likely will be on the court,
And so that's not meant to say there aren't risk
to the schedule being backloaded. I'm sure we'll talk about
that as we make our way through today's episode, but
I think by and large, we're consider where the Rockets
are as an organization. Young players are trying to develop
and hope take another step forward this season, having a

(07:04):
manageable start to the year. Well hopefully, let's say, after
those first eighteen games, maybe you're eleven and seven and
two to zero in Cup play. I think, by and large,
if the tradeoff is having to have a few more
difficult games once the calendar turns to twenty twenty five,
I think you'll take that if you can take care
of business at the start of the year. So, by

(07:26):
and large, I think I like the way this Rocket
schedule sets up. Powo, what were your initial impressions when
you looked at what the Rocket's true in this upcoming
eighty two game season.

Speaker 3 (07:36):
Yeah, so, well, first off, I'll just get ahead of
it and apologize to the listeners. My voice is not
the best. I've been dealing with COVID for a couple
of weeks now, I don't know. It's life's taking. This sounds,
but if Byz cracks or I have to cough, I'll
try to mute. But if I can't, you know, no,
I apologize in advance when it comes to the schedule. Listen,

(07:59):
I think at this point in the Rockets, you know,
the rejectedly towards we need contendered thought. I thought that
last year, the way the schedule was was structured would
be really important because I thought we needed to get
off to a strong start because of how much doubt
there was around the team, because of how many new
pieces were trying to gel together. You really need the
players to buy into what the coach is selling, especially

(08:21):
when it's a defensive defense story and to the head coach.
And that happened, and so that was perfect, and then
the season kind of collapsed. Anyways, if if people recall,
we were, you know, solidly a playoff team through what
twenty three games, and then it all fell apart. So
I'm at the point where kind of regardless obviously there's

(08:43):
some things that are nicer to happen others, but regardless
of what the schedule is, it's it's not an excuse anymore.
Right The second year with the same head coach. Whether
it's a slow start or or the opposite, you know,
just have to go out and play the team that's
in front of you. And the West is so stacked
that we can't hide behind being underdogs in all of

(09:07):
these games, because if we only expected to win the
games that we are, that we are favored, then we're
not going to make the players and that's the goal.
But I think I think everybody agrees that this season
the goal is to make the playoffs. That's why wreaking
the play in last season was so important. So looking
at the schedule, obviously, I think the easiest start is

(09:28):
both a blessing and the girls because if you start
off slow and some you know you can you can
start off slow because they're completely really good, or you
can start off slow because you know, shots on falling
or there's some worst involved or whatever it is, right
and if for some reason you start off slow, you're
being extra punished because you're starting off slow against teams
that you should be able to beat, and so teams

(09:50):
that would perhaps be Ginnis when Rockets are you know,
with the season in full slow and in rhythm at
the beginning, self the season might not be and at
the beginning the season the weaker teams obviously some exceptions
to it, but typically everybody's optimistic and even the weaker
teams think that they have a shot. And when the
Rockets were bad, we started off the season, all is

(10:12):
optimistic and then and then as the season went on,
they were obviously games for the Rockets entered into the
game already expecting to lose, especially in the Steam or
only in the Steven Salad years. So I think that
the easy start is worth a blessing and occurs teams
like San Antonio, even Charlotte building state perhaps at the

(10:32):
beginning of the season, Steel think that they have a
chart making their play in or something like that, and
the San Antonio with Chris Paul, Charlotte hopefully with a
with a healthy Illanolo Ball still healthy Mark Williams that
they didn't have through the later stages of last season.
We'll probably be getting for something that they probably would
be getting for as the season goes, you know, that

(10:54):
goes a long. I think something that's important to point
out is I think we have sixteen back to backs,
and we saw last season that even though we are
a young team, or even though we are a young
team without being a team full of rookies, back to
back seem to affect us more than the typical NBA team,

(11:15):
And I know you expect the back backs to hit you,
you know, really hard when players are on their first
and second years, and then backpacks become an advantage from
the third You're just estimating here from the third year
until till they're twenty eight or something like that, because
at that point you are young, but you're not new,

(11:36):
right until you already know how to deal with that
kind of stuff.

Speaker 2 (11:38):
You're used to eighty game seasons and not thirty to
thirty five game college seasons exactly.

Speaker 3 (11:43):
And so because of that, I expect that the backpacks
won't be as huge as a factor as they've been
in seasons prior and then since that. I think you
may have got the good point the last game against them,
but usually, you know, the games in the middle of
the season, they are what they are. Usually the start
the finish are the doones said you can kind of
predict because they have clear tendencies to close the season.

(12:05):
I think the Denver game probably won't be a starter
starters game for Denver, But then Besides that, I think
what you want to look for in the last see
games of the season is how many of these teams
will be in tank mode, because I think it's hard
to predict whether the Lakers, that Clippers, the Warriors, okay,
see Lakers again, keenis whether these teams will be.

Speaker 2 (12:24):
You do have two against the Jazz, they should be
bully in tank mode.

Speaker 3 (12:27):
That's that was That was excitedly the point that I
was about to.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
Make, and one against Atlanta before that.

Speaker 3 (12:32):
So yeah, yeah, there's you thought it will probably be
in thankful. That's a possibility that the planet will be
in tankle unless they surprise everyone. The Lakers and the
Tippers might be in thankful at that point, although no,
the person won't be because the under half their pick,
but the Lakers might okay, see obviously won't be. Poenius
doesn't have their pick. We have there is it this year?

Speaker 2 (12:52):
We have their pick.

Speaker 3 (12:53):
Actually be better than informed on this, but I don't
think that.

Speaker 2 (12:55):
There's there's a complicated swap right to it this year,
so it could be a packful.

Speaker 3 (13:00):
Yeah, right, so I think you know it's even even
within these things, it starts particular how many of them
will actually be good ending for something at that point.
But as I said to begin my to begin my point,
we're at a stage where every team is difficult, besides
the five taking teams on each conference that sometimes I
aren't even five, they weren't even five. Uh, And so

(13:23):
you've just got to play whoever in front of you,
and it's got to speculate on how the schedule will
impact the season. But I think we're at that point
in our in the trajector towards contention that it shouldn't
matter us. But and guys just got to show up
and pa whoever's in front of them, and we can't.
We can't be scared of the Celtics, and we can't

(13:44):
take it the hardness regranted. I think that's I think
that's those are things that are easy, easy to let
happen when teams is youngest sources or as the youngest
they were last season in the first season of trying
to contend or just trying to be good. I think
at this point, especially with they may look as the
head coach, I don't think that they'll let that that
stuff happening. Kain Or I expected that what I hope

(14:07):
they want and so just play webs is in front
of you. At the end of the day, it might
make a difference because one or two games decide a
playoffs spot versus the players, or even a playoffs spot
versus a non playing spot at all, but at the
end of the day, every team has to deal with
the same with the same problems. I will also just
quick little note, I was surprised I didn't mention Memphis

(14:29):
as some wonderful we might we might not be favored
of the games I expect from the from the reports,
not to not be favored, but favorite the games them, although.

Speaker 2 (14:41):
I think we will at home at all, think I
would think, yeah, it'll be cool for it. I think so.
I mean, I think, especially early in the year, the
Grizzlies aren't going to be given a ton of trust equity.
I could be wrong, but I don't think people are
going to assume that they flipped the switch to who
they were, in large part because actually that team two

(15:02):
years ago, the last time they were good, had Dylan
Brooks and Steven Adams or who are now with the Rockets.
So I could see it being closer to a pick them.
But I still think Rockets by two or three something
in that playing at home.

Speaker 3 (15:13):
Yeah'm definitely more, definitely more confident now than with them
and Tompton than I was before when we didn't have
a single soul that could kind of cart them right
right big off than the men will be able to.

Speaker 2 (15:26):
Yeah. Well, so a few odds and ends that I
want to note before we get back into the nitty
gritty of how the schedule sets up, because I do
think there's an interesting macro discussion to be had about
the trade deadline in early February. I believe it will
be on Thursday the sixth. It's usually on the Thursday,

(15:48):
either Thursday the six or Thursday the thirteenth, probably the sixth,
where they usually don't do it leading directly into the
All Star break, So the stretch the month before that,
when you have thirteen or seventeen on the road, there's
some very interesting implications there things go south, particularly if
they underachieve with this relatively easy start to the season

(16:11):
that we've been talking about. But before we get into
a little more macro discussion, so Powoll mentioned the sixteen
back to backs, which I think lead the league or
second most. That's somewhat offset by the fact that they
do not have a road trip all season long longer
than four games, and most of them are three or less.

(16:31):
I think that's sort of the trade off. They have
more back to backs, but then as I guess, something
of a hurk, they're not asking the NBA, that is,
the Rockets to go on these six to seven game
trips which they have in seasons pen you have a
six game homestand they have a couple of five gamers,
but the road trips aren't nearly as long. So I
think with the back to backs, you're hoping that by

(16:53):
not being on the road as long, you can absorb
it a little bit more than if you're having one
of those marathon trips where it felt it feels like
you haven't slept in your own bed for two three weeks.
And we know that this past season, it was that
six game East Coast trip in early to mid January
when the injuries started piling up as well. That's when
Charie Eason was lost. That's when this season realist jury
to go off the rails a little bit. And while

(17:15):
they salvaged it with that eleven game winning streak in
March and got within a half game of the play in.
At one point, it did feel like there was a
couple of months in there where the games weren't all
that meaningful because they weren't really in the postseason picture.
And of course that's what you're hoping to avoid this year,
because not only do you want to get in the
postseason regardless, you want the benefit of all the games
feeling meaningful for the purposes of development, learning, all those

(17:38):
types of things. So we'll see how it shakes out.
I do think you can argue the Rockets are a
little bit deeper this year the Steven Adams edition. Now
Cam went more Amen Thompson going into year two, Reed Shepherd,
based on his shooting, should be more ready to contribute
than a lot of rookies. So if you're a deep team,
that might help you on those back to backs as well. Now,
as far as the overall metrics, I saw someone point
out on Twitter that the Rockets, according to Tankathon's Strength

(18:02):
of Schedule metric, have the third most difficult schedule in
the NBA. That's actually something that's baked in because by
and large, teams in the Western Conference play more difficult
schedules than the East. Because the Western Conference is more difficult.
That's just how it works. You play most teams in
the West four times a year, teams in the East twice.
So unless the leagues dramatically change in terms of the

(18:26):
balance of power, how strong the East is, how strong
the West is, you would expect teams in the West
to play harder schedules. And then, just from a math perspective,
even though the Rockets are forty one and forty one,
last year they had just the uh there were only
four teams worse in the standings out West than the Rockets,
who finished eleventh. So when you compare it to other

(18:48):
West teams, which is really the only comparison, and then
you look and say, hey, the Rockets, because they are
one of the five worst teams, are thus playing more
games against the ten teams that advance to the play
in tournament or beyond. Then of course teams at the
bottom five of the West standings are going to be
among the teams having the more difficult schedule. That's just math,
that's how it works. And the Rockets have the third

(19:10):
recipical schedule. To no surprise, the two teams are in
front of them, Portland Trailblazers, Utah Jazz. Those are teams
that are right below the Rockets and the West standings,
so they have the same headwinds, but even more because
with worst records, they're playing even more teams that are
ahead of them and the standings, and the Spurs who
are a little bit behind the Rockets at seventh rather
than third. I mean, that's just small potatoes in terms

(19:33):
of the difference there. So the bottom line, the SOS metrics,
I wouldn't put too much weight on them. We knew
the Rockets just based on being in the Western Conference,
and all these metrics are calculated based on records from
last season, they were inevitably going to grade out not
well when it comes to strengthen schedule. It's just the
way the NBA was last season. In the Rockets, even

(19:54):
though we're encouraged at them being forty one and forty
one biggest annual wins increase, YadA, YadA, Well, they were
still a bottom five team in the West, and so
mathematically there was no real way to avoid them having
one of the NBA's toughest schedules on paper. Now, as
far as teams that they play only three times, they've
got the Lakers, the Nuggets, the Kings, who else, the Suns,

(20:19):
the Jazz, and the Trailblazers. So it's a good cross section.
Some teams they're supposed to be good, like the Nuggets,
the Kings, the Suns, the Lakers. Some not so good,
the Jazz, the Trailblazers. Should also note that they will
add two games depending on Cup results, So if they
don't qualify for the quarterfinals, then you'll have two games
added from that pool of Western Conference teams that you

(20:40):
play only three times. If they do make the quarterfinals,
well then it depends on who else is advancing in
the Cup, so to be determined for that second week
of December. But the bottom line, that's a good cross section.
That's the way the NBA does it with their schedule
in formula is that most teams in the West you
played four times, those who play three. Some should be
near the top of the conference, some should be near
the bottom. And that's true with the Rockets as well.

(21:02):
We will be very different than last year when they played
the Nuggets four times early in the season. This year
they only played the Nuggets three times, and one of
them is the season finale on April thirteenth, So very
different schedule this year. But as far as what you
were discussing, Polow and trying to tie it back into
the macro, I do think there's gonna be a burden
of high expectations or relatively high expectations. You know, no

(21:25):
one should be disappointed if after the first eleven games
they're six and five. There's a reasonable scenario where you
can lose the three games to the really good teams,
the thunder the Mavericks, the Knicks. You lose one of
those Spurs games at San Antonio, and then you lose
one other game. Maybe it's Memphis, maybe it's Golden State.
Who I looked it up, Powlow. The Rockets have not

(21:48):
beaten the Warriors in Houston since the twenty nineteen playoffs
Game three in Game four, that's a really long time.
If they had not beaten the Warriors anywhere since before
COVID February twenty twenty in Golden State, that was the year.
The Warriors are basically tanking and it was the debut
of Jeff Green the first time with the Rockets tried

(22:10):
after Detroit deadline and the Rockets that just flipped his
small ball with Robert cummingson in place of Clint Capella.
So the Rockets have not beaten the Warriors in a
long time. So even if we think the Warriors getting
up there in age losing Klay Thompson are a team
the Rockets can pass in the standings with their youth,
with their effected improvement, until the Rockets actually beat Steph

(22:32):
Curry at Twitor Center. I think it's healthy to maintain
a certain degree of skepticism. I understand that we've all
been traumatized to an extent. So when we talk about
a disappointing start, let's not make it out to be like, oh,
these first eleven games, they only play three contenders where
they have to be eight and thirty or better, or
something's wrong. No, we're not saying that, but let's say,

(22:53):
if you know, whatever reason, the chemistry isn't right, maybe
there's an ill timed injury, just shot. Luck doesn't go
your way if you don't start well against a portion
of the schedule that should be manageable a lot of
home games as well. We mentioned eleven of the first
eighteen at home, and then you look at the way
the schedule sets up for I'd say December onward. So

(23:15):
you have a stretch from December third through the twenty
sixth where what we know is that they'll have six
of seven on the road, and then you'll have likely
two add ons depending on Cup results, so probably one home,
one road, so you'll have seven of nine on the
road in all likelihood, Then you have a five game

(23:35):
homestand this is the most intriguing home stand of the year.
So many good matchups right for Christmas. But look at
the teams Timberwolves, Heat, Mavericks, Celtics, Lakers, lots of good
fun matchups. Those are difficult teams. And then after that,
starting January seventh, that's the thirteenth of seventeen on the
road stretch leading right up to and immediately after the
trade deadline. And that's really noteworthy because if the Rockets

(23:58):
don't get off to a good start and then they
have this difficult stretch with so many road games and contenders. Look,
this is a year in which the trade deadline could
become much more impactful than we're currently prepared for. You've
got two guys in Jalen Green and all for in
Shongoon who are extension eligible, and how and myself we

(24:20):
both don't expect them to get contract extensions this offseason,
largely for cap reasons flexibility. We don't need to go
into why. You can check out our Logger line archives
for that. But the point is, if they don't get
extensions this offseason, the Rockets will know that they're likely
to become restricted free agents after next season, and so
if the team isn't progressing as you expect, either at

(24:41):
a team level or individually with some of the players,
then that does raise the risk a little bit. If
you're not willing to max them, and if you were,
you'd probably get a deal done.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
Now.

Speaker 2 (24:50):
If you're willing to max them under all conditions, then yeah,
there could be some odd decisions to be add if
you get close to the traded line and you're underachieving
with water both of those guys. If you think that
there's some risk in the off season because they might
not fit into all scenarios, then yeah, there's some hard
conversations that might need to be had in early February,

(25:12):
especially because one of the reasons you wouldn't extend them
if you do extend them, makes them very difficult to trade.
The first year of the well wouldn't be the first
year of the contract, but after citing the extension, you
preserve the trade optionality if you don't extend them, So
that's another thing to keep in mind. I would also
point to Fred van Fleet. Look, if you think that
you're going to turn down his team option in twenty
twenty five and you have grand plans in free agency, well,

(25:35):
if this season isn't going well for one reason or another,
it doesn't seem like you're going to have a realistic
chance to make the postseason, which is not my expectation,
but I'm just saying, if things don't go well for
one reason or another, I could see the Rockets exploring
trades involving Fred at the dead line, because if you're
going to lose him in the off season anyway, potentially
because you're turning down his team option to get all

(25:56):
this cap space and try and bring in a more
impactful player at that point, then what if you could
trade Fred at the deadline for expiring contracts and draft
equity to a team that would see more benefit in
the value of Fred as a player this season. Again,
I'm not saying that's my expectation, but is there a
world where we know going into twenty twenty five. The

(26:18):
actionality with Fred's contract, then you do have a couple
of guys and a mentoms and a Rehepherd that are
potential drop in replacements at point guard if you decide
to pivot as a franchise. Yes, there's a world where
you extend Fred to you know, a two to three
year deal at a lower average annual value and he
sticks around, he can flourish off ball. Yeah, there's a
world where Fred six around for a while. There's also
a world where if things aren't going well this season

(26:40):
that you know, maybe you pivot to one of the
younger guys at that position and you say, hey, if
we're going to likely move on from Fred for financial
reasons no matter what, then maybe we try and move
him for expirings and draft equity at the trade deadline.
That gives us more flexibility when it comes to making
bigger deals in the off season, not saying I expect
any of that, but because of that, because inherently, if

(27:01):
you don't extend Sjalen or Shingoon, there are a little
more there is a little more risk factor with those
guys that just comes from the territory because Fred effectively
is doing into the last year of its contract. That's
three of your five starters, probably your three best players
going into the year, where I don't think we can
say one hundred percent that they're going to be on
the team a year from now. I think, especially with

(27:24):
Jalen and Shangounity, it's likely, but I wouldn't say it's
one hundred percent no matter what. So if you don't
take advantage for a week stretch of the schedule, and
if all those road games prove as difficult as they
appear to be on paper, we know how the Rockets
struggled on the road as a young team for most
of last season, then all of a sudden that trade
deadline becomes very, very interesting leading into an off season

(27:46):
where the Rockets do have a lot of financial flexibility
and can sort of pivot as a franchise if they
think they need to. So again, not saying any of
that is my expectation, but when we talk about the
bullish scenario, it should the lead off the pod look,
get off to a good start, and you put your
on the path to making the playoffs and you know,
taking the leap forward as a team and individually. There's
also a bear scenario. If it doesn't work out that,

(28:08):
there's some difficult conversations that we Felstone and he may
Joka might have to have in early February. So because
of that, what I keep going back to is there
is a little bit of a burden to start this year.
There's opportunity, but there's some pressure there as well, because
if for some reason they don't start off on the
right foot, then this thing could get pretty pretty daunting
quickly in a difficult Western conference.

Speaker 3 (28:28):
Right. Yeah, although although I will say I think that's
I would probably say I'm more confident out of the
three guys, I think Chiun's the one I'm more confident
we will be here by the end of the season, I agree,
But after him, I would actually say Fred's will more
likely to be here than jail On. Yeah, and then
via Outdake. But I think it's just a product of

(28:51):
how inconsistent Chaillan has been, you know, and you comebu
on top of that at Fred's contract, even if they
don't plan on bringing him back, it's actually really tough
to trade because it's a really high it's a really
high number, and the Orkeets will.

Speaker 2 (29:06):
Not Yeah, you're flag so yeah, and it.

Speaker 3 (29:08):
Strock on the Romain vessel. To get up to that
number on just expiring money would be really tough. And
then although side's really good, uh, if we're letting him go,
I'm assuming he's going to have kind of a down
season and at that point you have to be better
than whatever the expiring money coming back is. And a
lot of the you know, for for the past few years,

(29:29):
it's really easy to come across expiring when there were
a lot of remnants of the of the kV two
Warriors off season and all of those contracts well those
well all of those are gone now. And so it's
there's actually very much fewer bad, bad contracts that are
expiring right now around the league than that used to be,

(29:50):
or or very few you know, previous you know members
deals that have become expiring now I think now.

Speaker 2 (29:58):
You could do with three or fourteen scenario, but yeah,
I get your point. It's harder to make the math work.
Or you could you could ask for you know, contracts
that or viewed as positive trade value so you can
offload in the off season if you need, but that
does add another layer of risks. So I get your point. Yeah,
it is more complicated to get to Fred's figure at
about forty million.

Speaker 3 (30:17):
Sure, and I think but Ricardo's not to you know,
touch on the same points.

Speaker 2 (30:23):
That you did.

Speaker 3 (30:24):
I'll focus my my kind of auto look on one
saying in one player or well I'll make it two players.
A lot of people are going to talk about Bern
Shinghun because he's the best player on the team at
people are going to talk about Dalen Ring because he's
the highest He has the highest delta or the highest
variants when it comes to his play. I think the
biggest up grade Rockets can make this offseason or are

(30:45):
making it, hopefully it's from mains that way, is having
tarres and fully healthy and able to play twenty five
to studim into the season. He's just a massive contributor
towards Waiting. Really good defender, you know, really good you know,
leader on the court and offensively you know, and his
transition play creates a lot of turnovers, really told rebounder

(31:06):
one of those guys that you know, just tirelessly working
every single time, every single play, and that you know,
obviously he forces the entire team and with with me
those problems worked as visible. But I think Tarbyson brings
a new level of you know, just not giving up.
And I think he's you know, completely transformative to what

(31:30):
this team can be. And it's not just that he
was unavailable last season. It was that when he was available,
he was often being manutally not playing you.

Speaker 2 (31:38):
Know, yeah, twenty five minutes per game limit, Yeah, all
of the minutes that he could play, and I stually
expected him to play thirty plus this season.

Speaker 3 (31:45):
I think I expected him to be expect him to
play at the very minimum, top three minutes on the steam.
I think there will still be games where Jillen well,
where Galleon's average winess goes down because he's up at
the close games if he's not playing well enough. It
was a pretty solid you know, thirty plus minutes a
night for it as well. I think after that, our
reasonness is to be the guy with the most minutes

(32:07):
played as long as hopefully there's no injuries. And I
think I think if you add over recent to last
year's team, you know, full time no injury, I think
that's you know, four to five games, that's Rockets win
that they wouldn't have won. And it's five games in
the NBA season is massive. That's the difference between being
a forty one win team in a forty five to

(32:28):
forty six win team, which is you know, I don't
know if you want to get into it right now,
but that that is what my bar is for the season.
I think forty five to forty six wins is what
the expectation.

Speaker 2 (32:39):
My number was forty five, Yeah, yeah, I'm right there
with you, and that should get you in the play
and at a minimum, I mean it would have last season,
even in a strong Western conference. And this is a
year where with the Clippers losing Paul George, Warriors getting
over and losing Klay Thompson sons, who knows what happens there,
it could be a little lower than forty five. I
don't think it's fair to say forty five is the
expectation moving forward. That was a story strong West, and

(33:01):
it could be that, you know, forty two to forty
three is enough this year.

Speaker 3 (33:04):
Yeah, and I think forty five would be enough to
get us into the yeah side, I think lesser. It
was just insanely full key.

Speaker 2 (33:11):
By the way, did you notice with the national TV
so Rockets are getting a little more respect? You know,
last year they had just going into the year, I
think three national TV games and two of them were
NBA TV. This year there's eleven. Now eight of the
eleven are NBA TV, just three n T and T
or ESPN. Obviously those can be added at a later

(33:31):
date if it turns out the Rockets are really good,
that number can increase. But eleven relative to three, that's
definitely a decent bump. But all of those eight NBA
TV four or in the final two weeks of the season,
that's stretch against the Lakers, the Suns, the Clippers. So
reading between the lines, the league expects the Rockets to
be relevant. That's why they're sort of slating in their
initial draft to the schedule those games to be on TV.

(33:54):
So it's not just us hyping up the team and saying, oh,
they went forty one to forty one, so they should
be a few wins better. No, I think if you
look at how the weeks that the schedule and it's
broadcast partners decided which games to put on national TV,
the broadcast partners expect the Rockets to be relevant as well,
and so that's just a little thing as well. It's
not just us being Homers there are people around the
league that expect this Rockets team to be relevant, to
be in that conversation.

Speaker 3 (34:15):
Yeah, and we also have two you know, it's interesting.
We have to PND like sendoff games because he is
losing the right time, that.

Speaker 2 (34:23):
Hasn't played it right.

Speaker 3 (34:25):
So we'll happen.

Speaker 2 (34:26):
Is it the last year?

Speaker 3 (34:27):
Yeah, yeah, the last year, and we'll have kind of
both both ends of the spectrum. We will have like
a Griffin and Grand game against Memphis and they probably
is shoot the other games sacramental judging by you know,
how these teams have played in the past, so that
will be really interesting. But just to po saw the
point that I was making moving out of our recent
the other guy I was going to mention is is

(34:48):
a mentalms and I think the Rockets are in a
I think someone brought up this comparison and I hadn't
thought about it, but I actually kind of like it.
Which is the comp for for a man being Ekudala. Yeah,
I could see that because because early on he.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
Struggled with a handle.

Speaker 3 (35:08):
But yeah, yeah, and I think I think the facially
that that's a really good comment. I think, like a Kodall,
a man can be someone and he already was last year,
but I think he can expand on that useful in
more ways and less restrictive of the water you can
have on the floor in others. And I think that
you know, those two can turn up and down throughout

(35:28):
his career and hopefully we have a really useful player
because of it. But I think combining a man with
Torry Yeason, I think their styles fit together so well,
and in fact that Tarison at this point is already
a thirty six percent punctular, so it's obviously not you know,
sharp with someone who can trust to at least be
respect another three bike line if possession ends with the
tar reason three and I'm going to be happy in

(35:49):
ninety percent of the time. I think having those guys
play together, and that combined with not having any minutes
where none of them are on the floor would be
would be you know, really interesting from from your rotation perspective.
I know it's it's hard to pull off or as
his start to reason, and I don't know how the
one Brooks feel about that, but I think that that's

(36:09):
going to be a real, very real discussion in the
first couple of weeks of the season. But I think
a man is going to be the other X factor.
I think we mostly know what to expect from everybody else.
I you know, obviously, I'm a big killing guy. I
don't really expect him to stop being inconsistent all of
us that I'd be really happy if he if he
was going to, but I don't think he will so

(36:32):
expecting expecting his inconsistency. I think these two guys will
be will be the biggest factors, and I truly truly
think that this season will go a lot better just
from having Tari and having a man upgrade from what
he was last here, because there's really nothing a man
could be could get worse. I think his defense is

(36:54):
you know, short fighted. He's going he's one of you.
Was one of the best developers in the league last year,
He's going to be one of the best fenders in
the league this year. He's probably the guy trust on
the team the most, and that's saying a what when
we have Dealer Brooks and entary reason. Probably the guy
trust was to put on the ball on Eddy given star,
on a given Knight, call it KD from KD to

(37:14):
Steph Curry. He's probably the guy trust was to put
on any of these guys and so him upgrading even
if he doesn't have the clumb Charty d even if
the handle isn't there yet, just you know, him having
the reps from his first year carrying into the second year.
And he's someone we saw even defensively. We saw the
progress he made defensively within the same game. Guys would

(37:37):
get him with moves in the beginning of the game
and by the end of the game he was locking
them up. I think one of the most notorious ones
was the mart the Rods and Wife. He was biting
for for a lot of bump flakes and by the
end of the game he wasn't biting for none. And
so I think, as I said, just to conclude the point,
third reason and the many thoughts are going to be,
you know, the are x factors for for the Sted

(37:58):
moving moving into the season.

Speaker 2 (38:00):
I'll spotlight one other guy that I think the schedule
could play well for, at least in a team construct
and that's Jalen. Because I spent some time earlier talking
about sort of the bearish implications and it could be
for Jalen and specific given his contractual situation. Leaning into
the trade deadlight. But look, historically, Jalen has been a
better player in the second half of seasons than the first,

(38:22):
and so from that perspective, if you have a weaker
schedule towards the front of the year, then if Jalen
gets going in the second half, then perhaps that's sort
of the kick you need to help you against a
schedule that's more difficult. Now, hopefully Jalen gets more consistent.
That's the ideal scenario. We're just talking about what we've
seen to this point because I do agree with with

(38:42):
generally what you were saying, which is that Jalen's been
so inconsistent. It would be foolish to act like he's
kicked that issue simply because he had a great March. No,
you can be optimistic, you can have hope, but at
the same time, you don't have to be all in
as far as your expectations on thinking that the guy
he was in March is who he is from this
point forward. No, until he does it on a more

(39:03):
sustained basis, it's fair to have some skepticism. So if
the broader trends hold and these stronger in the second
half of the year, can perhaps that plays better to
this upcoming rocket season because the schedule is going to
be more difficult then, whereas the beginning of the year,
if he's a little bit weaker than well, the easier
schedule might help you withstand that a little bit. One
other thing I should mention as far as the trade deadline,

(39:23):
so I talked about sort of the bearish case, and
then the thirteen of seventeen road games leading up to
February eighth, which is right around the deadline. Starting February ninth,
you have a stretch with thirteen of seventeen at home.
So if you're close, if it's sort of like, eh,
you know, I could go one way, could go the other,

(39:45):
then maybe that nudges you in the direction of letting
it play out the rest of the year and waiting
until the offseason. Breathing more major when you have a
natural pivot point due to all the cap rome Anyway,
if you're on the fence, because Jalen historically is a
better second half player, and also you will have thirteen
of seventeen at hold, so if it's sort of in
that in between range, then maybe that's something that could

(40:06):
sort of nudge you in that direction. But again, a
lot of points, data points that is to be gleaned
between now and then, So I don't want to speculate
too much. I think, bottom line, the way the Rockets
are looking at this season and it defined what they
did and didn't do this offseason. They just want more data.
They want to learn more about their young players. There
were opportunities they had this off season to cash some

(40:28):
of their chips in to make more of an aggressive
win now move. They chose to to do it because
it would be too risky with some of these young
guys that you still have a lot of variance in
terms of how their careers are going to progress. So,
more than anything, you want this season to be meaningful
so that you can learn more. And regardless, I think
they should be able to do that, and hopefully the

(40:50):
schedule sets up well for them to have meaningful games
throughout the season. And so I want to focus most
of our discussion on the start, because again, how the
final two three months plays out, I mean, there's a
lot of different things that can happen between now and
then that can influence exactly how we feel at that time.
I think the most important thing for the Rockets is
getting off on the right foot, because if you do that,

(41:12):
then obviously that puts the players individually and the team
as a whole in the right frame of mind to
keep playing hard to be bought in. And so hopefully
we don't even have to talk about those bear scenarios
as you get closer to the trade deadline and the
potential of anything major happening in terms of a transaction
that might reshape the roster. So in terms of the
start to the year, mentioned the first eleven games, which

(41:34):
you've got, I know we can quibble over, you know,
what is Memphis going to look like with John Morant
and Desmond Baine back, But look, you've got of those
eleven teams, the Pistons, the Wizards, the Hornets, the Spurs
three times, you're going to be favored in an awful
lot of games. And then you've got eleven of your

(41:56):
first eighteen at home. By the way, in terms of
the homes sched well, it's their first home opener since
twenty nineteen. Pree covid twenty of their forty home games
their scheduled dispoint are on the weekend. So if you're
thinking about potentially buying tickets and coming out it's a
pretty strong schedule, including the most lucrative games right about
the holidays, right around Christmas and New Year. So it's

(42:18):
going to be a fun time to be a Rockets
fan with a much better team. But in terms of
projecting the performance, to circle back to that, yeah, how
they start the year is going to be very impactful.
One thing that's really interesting for this particular Rockets team,
so the NBA has a trend where you're seeing more
mini series like Baseball to sort of help with travel logistics.

(42:39):
You're having teams play twice in the same arena, either
back to back or in a span of three or
four days. So especially early in the year, you see
this with the Rockets schedule. They've got two in San
Antonio on the twenty sixth and twenty eighth of October.
Those are the third and fourth games of the season.
Then November thirteen and fifteen, you've got two straight games
against the Clippers a Wednesday Friday, the second being the

(43:02):
opener of NBA Cup play for the Rockets. Then the
next weekend, Friday the twenty second, and Saturday, the twenty
third of November, you get back to back home games
against the Trailblazers, and the Friday one is game two
of Cup play. So one thing that's sort of interesting
about that is that when you put multiple games against
the same opponent in close proximity, it allows teams to

(43:24):
game plan much more specifically for the matchup than they
normally can, because typically when you have three or four
games in a week and you might have just one
or two non game day practices, you've just got to
focus on you and your system, and you can't get
too dialed in for one particular opponent and trying to,
you know, play to their strengths or weaknesses the way

(43:46):
you would if it was in the playoffs. However, if
you have two straight games against the same opponent in
the case of the Spurs, you've actually got three games
in your first eight against them and the preseason finale,
you can game plan a little bit more. And so
if you have a team that's got more continuity to it,
that's got more chemistry because the Rockets have so many
returning players, as we mentioned off the top, that should

(44:06):
benefit you. And if you think your team has a
strong coaching staff, which I do think the Rockets do
led by im Yujoka, then that type of schedule that's
more playoff like in nature. I do think that could
be beneficial to the Rockets and further help them in
this stretch early in the year. So that's something to
sort of keep in the back of your mind when
we look at this sort of unique schedule to lead off.

(44:29):
I think there's some factors showing the chemistry, the continuity,
and the Rockets having a coaching advantage that could play
well to them. Now, I know the Spurs with Greg
Papovich certainly have a very well respected coach as well,
but the Spurs a lot younger. You also have the
one veteran you brought in Chris Paul while he's brand
new to the team, so that's not nearly the same
when it comes to the chemistry and continuity angles. So

(44:51):
I think that could be a little thing that helps
the Rockets early in the year as well. The other
thing to watch out for is Cup play. So talked
about the first eleven games that's pre cut, and then
the teams that are in the Rockets group stage, which
are the Clippers, the Trailblazers, the Timberwolves, and the Kings.
Timberwls and Kings Rockets will play on the road and

(45:12):
group play Clippers and Blazers at home, and four teams
for conference. The winners of each of the three five
team groups and the best of the second place teams
one wildcard team will advance to the eight team quarterfinals.
And just as we saw with the Pacers last year,
the Cup was designed to benefit younger teams. Younger teams

(45:33):
that are trying to make their mark in the league
are going to wait those a little more heavily. They're
going to see more juice to it because they haven't
been there. They're not just biting time until the playoffs.
No being on the big stage. They can get to
the semifinals, the championship in Las Vegas, the spotlight, it's
a big deal to them. We saw the Pacers ride

(45:53):
that to well. They lost, got to the championship game
and the Cup last season, then ultimately ended up in
the Eastern Comfort Finals. I think the Rockets would love
to replicate that template, and I think we talked about
the start to the year of providing the Rockets opportunity.
If they do well in Cup play, that's something that
they can sort of ride the momentum of as well.
And I do think it sets up pretty well for them.
I mean to me, the swing game when you look

(46:15):
at their Cup chances is that opener and home against
the Clippers. And there's some storylines there, obvious ones James Harden,
Kevin Porter Junior returning to Houston. No, I do not
think there will be a KPHA tribute video. But look,
if you can take that opener against the Clippers, who
should be worse without Paul George, and it is at home,
I think the Rockets will be heavy favorites at home

(46:36):
against the Trailblazers, who are the worst team in the group,
and then the road game at Sacramento. I think the
Rockets actually match up very well against the Kings. They
were three to zero against them last year. I think
Shingoon against Si Bonus is a favorable matchup. And I
also think Jalen Green does very well against teams that
don't have a traditional rim protector. So even though the
Kings are on the road, I actually like that matchup

(46:57):
for the Rockets. Keep in mind, you know, we all
think of that Sacramento game in March is the one
shouldn't doo and got hurt, But it's actually one of
the Rockets' most encouraging performances at the year. They went
on the road against a playoff team in the West
and just controlled that game throughout after a little bit
of a sluggish start. Ed Shingoon and Jalen were both
big parts of that, even before the Shingun injury, which
just happened to be in the closing seconds of that game.

(47:17):
So I like the matchup of the King. The Timberwolves
matchup is a difficult one. Timber Wolves one the best
teams in the West, and also the double big lineup
has been tough on the Rockets in the past, so
that one the Rockets will be decided underdogs. But look,
if the Rockets can take that opener against the Clippers,
to me, there's a path to them being three and one,
and three and one gives you a chance to either
win your group or, you know, depending on point differential,

(47:38):
that's the most frequent tiebreaker, you know, perhaps win a
wild card and get into the quarterfinals. And I do
think the Rockets, like the Pacers last year, our team
that would disproportionately benefit. So you know, don't want to
front our NBA Cup champions shirts just yet, but on paper,
I think it's a pretty manageable group. I mean the
beating the Clippers at home, No, Paul George, I think

(47:59):
that's doable. If you can win that open against the Clippers,
think there's a pretty clear path to bree in one power.
Would you sort of agree with that assessment, Yeah, I
think so.

Speaker 3 (48:08):
I think it's definitely easier than it was last year.
And I think I think that, as you said, the
Timberwolves are clearly in the probably not couldn't it be,
especially because an any adults, as I expect to be
taking another way, probably into MVP contention. And you know,
I don't know how how the bending, how well, how reliable,
how reliable Dylan Winn will be offensively, but usually he's

(48:31):
the one who struggles a lot against the Timberwolls, especially
against Udy Gobert, because.

Speaker 2 (48:35):
Right it's the opposite of the Kings matchup, the King's
j'able protector that Timberwolves have one of the best in
the game.

Speaker 3 (48:41):
Yeah, I think I think we'll and I think especially
they made again with the tools we have playing against
the Gangs, I think we will slow them down more
than they'll be able to speak us up, if that
makes sense. I think we can put a man thombson
on and put a man thumbson on on the Aaron Fox,
and I think import there's a different enough club against

(49:03):
against the Bonus, and then I think we'll be able
to play better defense against them. And I think they
are just completely automatic defensively against us. I don't think
think they can touch us at all. And so typically
this chilling from last season. We were better at teams
that didn't cause us too many problems on offense by

(49:24):
being weak defensively, uh, than we were to play the
same style that we did. We were a very scrappy team, right,
But you know, if the offense comes by easy, I
think it's a bigger benefit to us than it to
be for a team that is already good offensively. I
know that's really doesn't I know it's kind of convoluted

(49:44):
the way I put it, But I think the Kings
are a good matchup for us, and I think last year,
I don't want to say it was scriptive, but it
was pretty convenient that the team that won was the
team that won and obviously on meat. Yeah, So I
think this year.

Speaker 2 (50:03):
I'm not saying, but I am saying, Yeah, I think
this year.

Speaker 3 (50:07):
I don't think the Lakers are going to win this year,
and I think by the way, it's.

Speaker 2 (50:13):
I think good. Yeah, I think the Rockets. So from
a basketball standpoint, of course they want to advance in
the Cup. But there is a scenario where the Lakers
are one of the teams they only play three times,
and as the schedule currently sets up, they only have
one home game to monetize against Lebron and ad So
in the scenario where the Rockets and Lakers don't advance

(50:35):
to the knockout stage, then there's a pretty decent chance
that the Lakers would end up being the add on
game for the Rockets in December, which from a business
standpoint would be fantastic. So I know we mostly care
about basketball here, but business wise, the Constellation game against
the Lakers would not be the worst thing in the
world either. Just wanted to throw that in there since
you were mentioning them.

Speaker 3 (50:57):
Yeah, and if I'm not mistaken, the knockout games that
don't count the No, they do.

Speaker 2 (51:02):
They do not the quarterfinals and semifinals do the championships? Oh,
that's it, Okay, the championship does it? Yeah, because that
would give you the odd number of eighty three. But yeah,
if you get to the quarterfinals in the semifinals, it does.
And then the way it works out, so if you
don't make the quarterfinals, there's two basically add on consolation

(51:25):
games if you will, which is where the Lakers game
at home could potentially come into play. If you get
to the quarterfinals and lose, then your second game is
against the other loser from your conference. So it's sort
of like, you know, the teams in the Olympic Tournament
men's basketball that lose in the semifinals will play for

(51:46):
the bronze medal, and so you know, you can call
it fifth place in the cup if you want, I guess,
But that's where the other game would come from. If
you lose the quarterfinal, then you would have a consolation
game also part of the regular season, against the other
quarterfinal loser from the West.

Speaker 3 (52:01):
Yeah, and so that kind of makes me think perhaps
that can the one us to advance, because we'll probably
face harder teams for the regular season if we advanced
that if we don't, Yeah, decent chance, I think that.
I think that makes sense front.

Speaker 2 (52:14):
So yeah, it's sort of like convoluted that way as well. Yeah,
you would probably get a little bit weaker teams and
get to play at home if you if you don't advance,
because if the Rockets, even if they do advance, you know,
unless you finish in the top two, then you wouldn't
get the home game in the quarterfinals, and then beyond

(52:34):
that it's in it's in Vegas. So yeah, you could
actually have a better chance at having, you know, maximizing
your odds over eighty two games having the best record
by not advancing. As weird as that is, although I
guess it's offset by the fact that if you do advance,
then you inherently won more of those you know, group
stage games. But but yeah, yeah, you're probably gonna add

(52:54):
your adding games in that second week of December will
probably be easier if you if you don't, but yeah,
and you probably shouldn't take it because again, if you, yeah,
if you advance, it means you did well in the
group games. So it sort of it comes out of
wash which is I.

Speaker 3 (53:08):
Running because I stunted off the pot saying we're at
the point where we shouldn't get about the employment.

Speaker 2 (53:12):
We could just yeah, right, Basically, I think the best
scenario if you wanted to strategically sort of maximize your
value over you know, best eighty two game record would
be to go three and one and just sort of
tie for you know, either the group stage lead or tiebreaker,
but lose on point differential and so that way you
win most of the group stage games, but you don't

(53:35):
get the harder games of advancing. So if you wanted
to be as cold and calculating as possible, to the
three on one record where you lose on tiebreakers would
probably be optimal.

Speaker 3 (53:45):
Yeah, so yeah, it's just made It would make no
sense to take it at all because well, you gave
that you're thanking would be the game that you're trying
to favor and afterwards. But anyways, it's I think, as
an European sports said, the entire you know, cup play thing,

(54:06):
that's very that's very you know pard to me because
usually the cup thing is where teams that don't have
as big of a chance of winning the league, let's
call it, they give it. They're all in the Cup
championship because that's you know a little it's kind of
good slittion profect that they can take home and there
is pretty prestigious competition. So I hope that the incidentament

(54:28):
eventually becomes that, and I think it can give you
obviously it's completely different from what the playoff serious is,
but it can give you a little taste of what
it is to prepare for a team and specific and
have you know, the kind of stakes, although the stakes
aren't really that big, but some stakes and.

Speaker 2 (54:44):
Then yeah, they feel bigger if you're a team in
the Rockets position, just like they did for the Pacers
last year. I think that's the idea, and I do
think there's something too bad, So that's why, yeah, buy large.
I what the Rockets to win and advance, and hey,
if they somehow win the Cup, dude, we're having a parade,
probably not literally, but we'll have our own mini rocket
S Twitter paradees somewhere in Houston right around Christmas, because

(55:05):
after what we've been through to start this decade, God,
that would be that would feel amazing. But a lot
of games to go to get to that point, but
we can dream. That's what the off season is about,
all right. So we already gave our sort of wins
and losses expectations going into the year. I think we're
both in the forty five to forty six range, assuming health.

(55:27):
We've got one other topic I wanted to cover, but Powello,
before we turn the page to our non schedule topic
of discussion, is there anything else that you wanted to
cover for the schedule. I think I'm done with everything
I wanted to highlight.

Speaker 3 (55:40):
Yeah, I guess I'll take the time to mention some
of that you mentioned earlier in the pod that didn't
That isn't thinking back then, But I do want to
say there a lot of situ Warriors that they say
that you mentioned is absolutely ridiculous, and I'll just take
these couple of seconds to have no like typical rant
of guys. We got to stop having MVP cans for

(56:01):
Steph Curry at center. It's the most embarrassing thing I've
ever seen in all of sports from a fan base.
It's just as sultle ridiculous and it seems good now,
but there's no reason for them not to be more
Rocket Series than our Warriors. Said had to that. That's
all Gonno said. And final people, would you come after
me for that? Because I'm I am not able to
be at the games the Trusty if I live there,

(56:22):
I would.

Speaker 2 (56:23):
Be Yeah, and I will say I hate in the
past week. How likable Steph Curry is coming off. Obviously,
he saved Team USA in the Olympics, which will get
too momentarily. Also, he has a new comedy on Peacock
called Mister Throwback, which I watched I was playing. I
hate watching it, but it's actually pretty funny. So yeah,
Steph's having a good offseason from a basketball at a

(56:45):
PR perspective, And so much as I hate the guy
in the basketball court, he does seem to be well
a a good guy at b He absolutely saved the
Americans and the Olympics with his performances in the semifinals
against Serbia and then closing out France and the gold
medal was just a broage of three pointers in the
last three minutes of that game, So to go stand
for that. But that could be the highlight of his

(57:05):
twenty twenty four But if the Rockets are going to
kick his ass once the calendar turns to November, at
least that's what we'll tell ourselves, because certainly the Rockets
are due for that after all of the losses that
they've taken. It's weird because certainly the Warriors, you go
back to twenty fifteen had all those playoff series wins
against the Rockets, but by and large it was competitive,
certainly in the playoffs and in the regular seasons as well.

(57:28):
The Warriors had the upper hand they won the series,
but the James Hardenarrow Rockets had their share of game
wins against the Warriors. There were moments where we know
what Harden did in the unguardable tour in San Francisco
or at the time it was in Oakland, but you
get the idea at Oracle. We know the massive games
he had in the twenty nineteen playoffs against the Warriors.

(57:50):
It wasn't like they were devoid of highlights altogether, as
opposed to again in the last five years. And of
course that coincide Forgship with the Rockets going into a rebuild.
But to not have any games at all that you
can point you against the Warriors, not even a fluke
regular season game where somebody goes off for forty and
you win. To have lost i think it's thirteen straight
against them, and not having a home win against them

(58:12):
in more than five years, that is absolutely ridiculous against
any NBA team, especially one from your same conference. So
hopefully the Rockets are due first opportunity will be Saturday,
November second, and what should be a pretty lively atmosphere
at Toyota Center at the sixth game of the season,
Rockets will be five and oh because well, probably won't be,
but we're hoping they will be. You did see that

(58:34):
that Corki. Rockets put out a schedule release video like
a lot of teams, and theirs was the infamous Twitter
Corgi that is the prediction mascot for a lot of games,
has the Rockets going eighty two and oh. Spoiler alert.
The owner of the Corgi, the human owner that is,
works at Toyota so the Rockets had through their sponsor

(58:54):
a little bit of an end there. But regardless, Corgi
said the Rockets are going eighty two and oh eighty
three to oh if you can the Extra Cup game.
So I'm gonna say the corgy is right and let's
roll with that. That means going five to oh in
the first week of the season and then steamrolling the
Warriors for a long overdue win on that Saturday, November
second game. All right, speaking of the Olympics, and this
will be our last topic. I know we're an hour

(59:16):
in and we need to wind this down. So the
US just wrapped up their gold medal run. It's their
fifth straight gold and it's been a while since the
Rockets have had a representative on Team USA. James Harden
was on the twenty twelve Olympic team, but he had
yet to be traded to the Rockets. That happened that October.
Olympics were in August, and he wasn't on twenty sixteen

(59:40):
or twenty twenty. Obviously, Rockets, very young and rebuilding at
this point, didn't have any reps in twenty twenty four,
and so you have to go back at least to
Obviously Hakeem in ninety six was the first. I can't
remember if Tracy McGrady was on either the four or

(01:00:00):
eight Olympic team. He might have been. Not for sure
on that, I would have to look back. But the
point is you gotta go back to either the nineties
or the two thousands. Obviously Yao Ming, but he was
for Team China. So in terms of being on Team USA,
the gold standard for basketball on the world stage, it's
been a while for the Rockets to be represented. And

(01:00:22):
that's not to say that they're not represented in the
Olympics even this year. Look, Jock Landale played very well
for Team Australia, so did Jack McVay. Dylan Brooks started
for Team Canada, had his moments, So they do have
international representation all for in, Shangoon is the star of
Turkey's team. If they can get to the Olympics in
twenty twenty eight they did not in twenty twenty four,
then Shingoon, assuming health, will certainly be on the team.

(01:00:45):
But in terms of Team USA, which is the gold
standard of the sport, it's been a while for the
Rockets to be represented, and they've had representation on other teams,
Like you know, Harden was on I believe the twenty
fourteen World Cup and played a huge role. There came
a World Cup the same at the time, at the
same tournament, but that's a little different because those World

(01:01:06):
Cup teams oftentimes don't have the best of the best,
so sometimes those rosters are sort of formed by attrician
who accepts in a non Olympic year, the Olympics are
what truly matters in terms of the international stage among
NBA players, and so Rockets have not had a representative
on that stage to have the opportunity to do what
Steph Curry just did and leading the Americans to that

(01:01:27):
fifth straight gold medal. It's been quite a while, So
next Olympics twenty twenty eight in Los Angeles, it will
be a significant interest to players around the NBA because well,
every Olympics is, but especially one in the United States.
First Olympics here since nineteen ninety six when Kakeim Elijah
One was the aforementioned Rockets representative. So the competition for

(01:01:52):
those twelve Olympic spots in twenty twenty eight will be intense. Now,
I will say it's definitely possible. I could see Imai
Udoka being consideration for the coaching staff, So Pale, you
can't answer my question with him, because I think that's
a Steve curR is headed that he's likely to retire
if he does so, I think Eric Spolsher would be

(01:02:13):
next in line. He was the lead assistant this year,
and obviously Spoe's been a great coach for a while,
so Spulsher would likely take the rings as the head coach.
But I could see Imo Udoka, as young as he
is and with the record that he's beginning to a
crew in the NBA. I could see Udoka being on
the staff of twenty twenty eight. But let's talk about players.
If the Rockets are to somehow have a chance at

(01:02:37):
one or more players in twenty twenty eight actually making
at roster, who would it be? And so you've got
to start with the core seven minus Shingoon. No, I'm
not excluding Shinhoon. Don't call me a hater. That's just
because he's not for America. He would be consideration for
Turkey if they make it. I hope they do. So,

(01:02:57):
course seven minus Shinoon, that gives you Jalen, Jabari Smith,
Tarry Eason Men Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Read Shepherd. And I'm
going to say that of those six, the road map
is most difficult for Kim Whitmore and Tari Easton because
at picks twenty and seventeen in the first round, those

(01:03:20):
aren't typical spots where you would expect a star level trajectory. Now,
they certainly have opportunities to evolve into those types of players,
but the deck is sacked against you a little bit
in terms of having the visibility to be on the
radar of the national team. It's not to say that
they can't or yours is plenty of time. You know,

(01:03:41):
one thing I want to point out some people will say, oh,
why are you talking about the Olympics for the Rockets
who don't have a clear superstar at this point. We're
talking about twenty twenty eight. That's a long time. You
go back to this point in August of twenty twenty
and you look at this year's Olympic team, Anthony Edwards
and Tyrese Haliburton were not on the NBA radar at all. Well,
the edwidch was as a prospect, but certainly he was

(01:04:01):
nowhere near being considered NBA superstar. And then bam Adebayo
and Devin Booker were nowhere near in August twenty twenty
being considered Olympic caliber. In my opinion, Booker was putting
up numbers, but for a bad Phoenix team that had
yet to play at a single playoff game in his
tenure at A Bayo had had one pretty good season
with the Heat. So the point is four years is

(01:04:23):
a lot of time for guys to evolve get a
lot better, as we just saw when Anthony Edward, Tyres Aliburton,
Devin Booker and bam Aute Bayo over the last four
year cycle. So while none of the Rockets or six
of Americans is nearly at an Olympic level right now,
there is plenty of time for these guys to evolve

(01:04:43):
and get a lot better between twenty twenty four and
twenty twenty eight. And so again, looking at those six,
I put Tari and Cam in a slightly lower tier,
although you can point out Cam was actually MVP of
one of the under eighteen USA international teams a couple
of years ago, so he is sort of on the
radar when it comes to program. Officials should also point

(01:05:06):
out that Jabari Smith Junior and a Men Thompson were
on the select team this offseason, basically meaning they were
part of training camp for this Olympics competed against the
national team, So that puts you on the radar. Mark
Jones at ESPN said Jabari in particular, got ray of
reviews from people at camp. Jalen Green was on the
select team a year ago leading up to the World Cup.

(01:05:28):
So those are guys that are on the radar a
little bit. The guys that weren't Tarry Easton and Reed Shepherd,
I think they haven't had any Team USA ties just
because coming out of high school they were good prospects,
but they weren't elite prospects. So you can look at
the top four cutoff, which you know Jalen Jabbari, Men
and oh Reed Shepherd, so that's one cutoff. You can

(01:05:52):
look at it that way. You know, guys that are
picked in the top four the lottery selections are typically
better than non lottery picks, so you could say they
have a leg up. And then you look at who
has Team USA ties, it would be Jalen Jabari, Men
and Cam Whitmore who did play at an under eighteen level.
So the three guys that check all the boxes, which

(01:06:14):
are previous Team USA experience, be it at youth levels
and or the select team and top four draft picks,
which typically put you more on the radar around the league,
around the world because those often are strongly correlated with
superstar level outcomes, would be Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Junior,

(01:06:36):
and Amen Tops and all of them have within the
last thirteen months have taken part in Team USA activities.
So there's a lot of different ways you can look
at who's most likely to be on the radar in
twenty twenty eight my hot take, and he's nowhere near
this level right now. I'm aware of that, But if

(01:06:56):
I had to pick one, I think Jabari may have
the cleanest pad, simply because again, the guys who check
all the boxes in terms of prerequisites to this point
draft status, Team USA experience would be Jalen, Jabbari and
a men. But when you look at what's going to
have the most utility to the team and what their
limitations are as a player, a man can be an

(01:07:18):
all world defender, but until the jump shot comes along,
you have to worry about can he be trusted enough
as a floor spacer or is he going to be
too much reliability for those star level players that he's
going to be playing alongside and thus need room to
operate with Jalen, it's that the bar for him as
a scorer is so high because he's not really dynamic

(01:07:38):
as a defender. He's not particularly big as a shooting guard,
he's not really a facilitator. He needs to be a
thirty plus points per game scorer take on that Anthony
Edwards type leap to truly be Olympic worthy, because if
he's not scoring at a truly elite level, then he's
not good enough in these other areas. Jabbari is somewhat
that just a year two twenty years old averaging thirteen

(01:08:03):
and eight shooting thirty six percent on threes. If he
can just bump that up a little bit the counting
stats to where he's averaging, say, you know, sixteen seventeen points,
ten boards a game this year, shoots thirty eight thirty
nine percent on threes, defends at a high level, rebounds
even better, can capably defend guys at several different positions.

(01:08:23):
A player like that has a ton of utility because
they can fit in so many roster constructs. We talked
about that in terms of building the Rockets, but it's
also valuable in terms of building an Olympic team. And
you know, bam Atabayo is a good example of that.
BAM's obviously a four slash five. Jabori has a little
more utility. Isn't quite the same in terms of rim protection,
but I think the type of defensive versatility not needing

(01:08:44):
the ball to make a big time impact. Again, not
saying Jabari is there now, but in terms of projecting
between now and twenty twenty eight, I think Jabari has
the cleanest path to be a player at that level.
It's not that Jalen or a men can't. They have
clear skills, and it's not that you know, like Reed

(01:09:05):
Shepherd in particular, he is a clear skill with a
shooting that could be beneficial. You just have to you know, well,
number one, he's starting at the lower baseline as a rookie,
and two he's really small, so there's submitigating factors. There
doesn't have Team USA experience. You can make arguments for
Camentari if you want, but for me, I sort of
balance it all and as strange as it's as it
might sound, because I don't think Jabari is someone that

(01:09:26):
we think of as being the highest upside among the
current Rockets, at least the prism of who's most likely
to have a path to the twenty twenty eight Olympic
team of the United States, the gold standard playing in
LA and American Games. While admittedly unlikely, I think I
would put Shabari at the forefront of my Rockets list

(01:09:47):
in terms of the likelihood of it actually happening. It
might just be, you know, ten percent, but I would
say that he's the most of the current Rockets. So, Paulo,
when you're looking at those six, who would be at
the forefront of your list of a Rocket. Again, this
is based on the current team, So no, you can't
cheat and say, oh, I think the Rocket's gonna trade
for Devin Booker and he'll be on the Olympic team. Again, No,
it doesn't work that way. We're talking about the Rockets

(01:10:07):
as currently constructed. If the current Rockets are going to
have an Olympian on the twenty twenty eight team going
for their six straight gold medal, who do you think
it's most likely to be.

Speaker 3 (01:10:17):
I think it will be disrespectful to say anybody other
than Alprahn Schangun would changes nationality.

Speaker 2 (01:10:27):
Oh again, I.

Speaker 3 (01:10:28):
Think the Little Kid team and I think Jing. I
think Shangun changing nationalities has a higher chance of happening
than any of the girl guys we currently have being
good enough to make a tenuous a. I think it's
to be highly disrespectful to say anything else. And this
is totally not in Jess And this is totally not
to please a certain type of audience.

Speaker 2 (01:10:48):
And what would happen on social media? Yeah, if she
didn't did that.

Speaker 3 (01:10:51):
By the way, this actually wouldn't please that audience, would it.

Speaker 2 (01:10:55):
Yeah, that would be chaos. I sort of want to
see it just just it would be like a train rack,
but I sort of want to see it. Well, okay,
and without the cheating. Shouldn't go answer pick one up?

Speaker 3 (01:11:07):
I would. I would probably say a man because I
think if a few I think if we were talking
two years from analogy, it would be the safest option.
But I think four years from now right, any of
the guys need that, I think really dramatic improvement to

(01:11:27):
make it. And I think the Olympic team is in
any way comparable to what it was this year. They
didn't real bar is really high and they took they
took their quiet with them, but because he was an
injury replacement and they took through holiday, which he's not
really a star, but as far as role players goes,

(01:11:50):
he has as key as as goes to start as that.

Speaker 2 (01:11:52):
As there is.

Speaker 3 (01:11:53):
And I think that the league has a lot of
star players at the parties position that are really I mean,
you've got Tayta, you got Paolo, you've got pollow Went, Yeah,
he put to me, and d J you should have
Yellen Brush. Yeah, you have just off off the top
of my head, a lot of guys that.

Speaker 2 (01:12:14):
Will probably get ahead of him.

Speaker 3 (01:12:15):
A man not only plays point coud, which I can't
really really. I mean, you have Halliburton and you have Maxi,
but there are completely different types of players to a
mend and Haliburton didn't played this year, which makes the
question is he's is his game really the type of
game that you want to deal with? But he's really
contacted first, right, so you have to learn about that.

(01:12:37):
And then defensively, obviously Maxie is I don't know how
he would hold up against European teams who are typically
really oversized. Yeah, and the man obviously gives you one
to one to be four defense right right now, and
he can play you can both scale it up to
be a star player and you can and he can

(01:12:58):
very easily be scaled out or player a Suisang knife
type of guy. So I think I think Demands is
the safest, both because of the upside but also because
of the position over Certilty that he has. And I
think besides that, I have not even said Dyalen wouldn't
be ahead of Kip Party just because of that of
the upside element, although he would be always behind Anthony Edwards,

(01:13:21):
who I think the extent years has that. Yeah, unless
unless he says he doesn't want to go again.

Speaker 2 (01:13:27):
Right, I mean if that, and I just think that
Jalen has well, he probably has more upside than Jabori.
It's tricky for me because I feel like sometimes people
sleep on Jamori's upside because number one defensive players aren't
properly valued. I think in terms of like just because
the team contributions the defense, there's not to catch all metrics.

(01:13:50):
And also, well, Jabouri is not the shiftiest creator. Look
if he becomes an elite shooter and he's almost seven
feet tall already, I mean you can just rise and
fire over guys. You don't have to be the world's
shiftiest guy if you can shoot that well at his height.
So I do think that Jabari's upside is under sould
a little bit on certain corners of Rockets Twitter. But
but yeah, I do agree that as we saw in March,
Jalen does have a gear that most players, including Jabari.

(01:14:15):
It's not distreadful to JABORI. I think it's just the truth.
Jalen has a gear that most players in the NBA
can't get to the question is whether he can consistently
tap into that gear. But if he does, and I
think that's the point you're making, is that it's more
about upside, then yeah. And you know I was thinking
of it more in terms of how a player would
fit around. You know, in my head, the thought exert
as I did was sort of putting Rockets players if

(01:14:37):
they develop the way we think they can around a
team like the twenty twenty four Olympic team, and it's
easier for me to see Jabari as plug and play
as he is having value in that type of setting.
But to your point, and that's a fair one that
I hadn't really considered. It's not just how they fit
around the team, but it's also who are they competing
with to get on that spot. And so if Jabari
is competing with, you know, with Tatum, with Paolo, with

(01:14:57):
chet Holgrin, with other guys at his position, then maybe
there's less guys that Chillen and the men are directly
competing against. That's a that's a valid protected too.

Speaker 3 (01:15:08):
Although depending on how the careers of these guys go,
that's Moustarter is still really young. I would guess that
Team USA's biggest speakness is probably center. Four years from now,
BAM will probably the BAM will still be thirty.

Speaker 2 (01:15:22):
I guess two.

Speaker 3 (01:15:23):
Olympics from now, Uh, there's in between hell and then
this will probably be some centers drafted, right, But I
would get.

Speaker 2 (01:15:32):
Is as Sabori is a five that would be interesting.

Speaker 3 (01:15:35):
That that's what I found that they they brought, They
brought ying data sent them at the BAIO this year and.

Speaker 2 (01:15:40):
Cha might be ahead of him. Well, Chad holding be
ahead of in the pecking order now, but obviously depends
on how Chat and Shabori developed over the next few years,
you know.

Speaker 3 (01:15:49):
But what I mean, they brought Anthony Davis and Tim Adabayo,
who are a specific type of center, very switching right right.
Chad is probably more of a drop center, although his
mobile I know.

Speaker 2 (01:16:01):
You can switch. But yeah, how will he age? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:16:04):
Yeah, so I will guess still already has an angle
there and I think I know, because of BA degree,
tarision has a smaller chance, but I think he's someone
who you know, who impresses a lot of coaches in
the NBA.

Speaker 2 (01:16:21):
In Emay throughout the the Kawhi Leonard Cup. And while
it's unlikely to get there. I mean, look, Kawhi was
at mid fort turn pick the same way Tori was
because he had some of the same questions coming out
of college. So you know he would have to hit
at a very high level. But to your point, the
path is there is pregnant for it.

Speaker 3 (01:16:40):
I mean, even if I'm sorry, voice struggling, I mean,
even if we were talking about from a role player
play the play levels I think Darry has and there's
been numerous coaches who have talked about Tari and yeah
for projecting outcomes that are you know, plug and play
a role player for JPARI I think Darry will actually
fit those a little bit better as he gets to

(01:17:02):
be more well known. Don't know, hes have packed the
TMOSA dies.

Speaker 2 (01:17:06):
Yeah, and his ability to defend the perimeter. I mean
conceivably he could be like a somewhat bigger version of
Shrew Holiday in terms of the role he played for
this team. Not saying he's anywhere near that player now,
but just in terms of projecting like idealistic outcomes from
four years from now. So yeah, that's that's an interesting one.
So want to stress as we close out the POD,
I think it's definitely time because A, it's been over

(01:17:27):
an hour, and B palo Ando, you've got COVID. Your
voice is going a little bit. We're not expecting any
of these guys necessarily be twenty twenty eight Olympians. We're
just talking idealistically, if it works out, who fits, and
so all of these guys we're talking you know, top
ten percent outcomes, not saying any of it is likely,
just talking about, you know, interesting as things set up,

(01:17:48):
and some of it may be. Look, who wants to
go the extra mile and compete in international tournaments in
twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven, when there's more opportunities
likely to be had because not as many big names
will do it. That could come into it as well.
Who's willing to do it, who's healthy, and who takes
advantage of an opportunity. If there's a team that not
that many big names are on, can Jabari or Jalen
or a man who or whoever it is, sees the

(01:18:09):
Abrignado out there and play well, and by virtue of
playing well for the US national team on the world stage,
perhaps leading them to a first place finish, then that
can be the type of thing that propels them even
more onto the Olympic Radar for twenty twenty eight again
and acknowledge it's unlikely just talking. You know, it's the
dead period of the NBA off season. Let's have some
fun and so hopefully our listeners enjoyed that. Anyway, we'll

(01:18:30):
bring it to a close here because Powell's voice is
going and come on over an hour anyway, So we've
got to save some stuff for future episodes because we
still have more than a month until training camp. So
let's save some of these conversations for our next pod
in a couple of weeks. But I'm sure we can
have some more macro discussions. Shelve the micro until closer
to training camp in late September, and of course we'll

(01:18:51):
start getting ten bits when the Rockets report and start
the preseason on October seventh against the Jazz, four games
leading up to that October twenty third regular season opener.
So that will do it for today and until next time.
If you want to get a hold of Powlo or myself,
the best places always do that is on Twitter slash
x where Powell's on there at Palo Alps, NBA. I'm
on their at Benjiebo's and the show is on there

(01:19:12):
at the logger line, where if you hit up the
link tree in the bio x dot com slash the
logger line, you can only find our great partners and sponsors,
Sports Talk seven ninety Carbark Brewing USA, Today's Rockets market
consume their content that would make us look good. But
beyond that, you can also find the distributors of this program.
All the major podcasts have it podcast platforms that is Apple, Google, Spotify, subscribe,

(01:19:34):
leave pods review if you've not already, and that way
you get benefited episodes right when they come out and
we can benefit hopefully with your positive review along with
your subscription of looking good to those aforementioned friends, partners
and sponsors and keeping this program running as one of
the most active podcasts covering Houston Rockets basketball. All right,
with those plugs completely, we'll ajourn for Palo Alps. I'm Benjubo's.
Thanks as always to you all for listening, and please
come back soon for another new episode of the Logger Line.

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