June 4, 2025 • 42 mins
Wednesday’s episode features reaction and insight from our Ben DuBose to a handful of recent NBA rumors connected to the Rockets. Those include the New York Knicks’ reported interest in Ime Udoka as head coach; a potential Kevin Durant trade with the Phoenix Suns perhaps getting closer; and free agent Brook Lopez becoming a potential backup plan for Houston, should Steven Adams choose to sign elsewhere.
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Today's Rockets. We are contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety,
official Flagshare radio station of your Houston Rockets. It's Wednesday,
(00:54):
June fourth, and finally, after a few quiet weeks to
begin the off season for the Rockets, we have we've
had some rumors this week. As fate would have it,
we put out that episode Monday night explaining why there
haven't been many updates, and within twelve hours, Curtesy of
Kelly Echo of the Athletic we had a few really
juicy tidbits about the Rockets and Kevin Durant, the Rockets
(01:15):
and Brook Lopez. We'll talk about those situations today, but
I'm going to start with the reports out of New
York with the Knicks moving on from Tom Thibodeau as
head coach, and multiple reporters Mark Stein, longtime national reporter,
and Ian Begley, longtime local reporter in New York covering
the Knicks, reporting that there's some level of interest that
(01:35):
the Knicks have in emy Udoka, head coach of the Rockets.
So this will be a fairly quick hitting episode, just
a few reactionary takes to the news of the last
twenty four to thirty six hours and what the implications
are for fans of the Rockets and the remainder of
the twenty twenty five Houston Rockets off season. I'll start
with the emy Udoka reports out of New York, because
(01:58):
if somehow that happened, that would be a transformative thing
and not in a good way to the future outlook
of the Rockets. However, I am personally, very very skeptical
that there are any legs to those reports. It's nice
to be appreciated and ima Udoka finished third and Coach
of the Year voting for a reason. The strides the
(02:20):
Rockets have made the last two seasons have been undeniable,
and so when a big market team has a vacancy,
and they see a relatively young head coach having a
ton of success somewhere else in the league, it's natural
that they would be interested. However, I have not heard
anything to suggest that New York's interest is reciprocated by
(02:40):
e May and or other members of the Houston coaching staff.
And I also don't think the Rockets have any interest
in moving on or cheaping out, whatever the case may be,
and turning over the reins to someone else. Now, I
won't entirely rule it out, because look, even though Emay
is under contract, it's not that different from a player
(03:03):
that wants out. If you think that, and when I
say you, I mean the organization that you're at risk
of losing the asset for no compensation if he may
tells you that when his contract expires in a couple
of years. He's midway through a four year deal that
he signed in the twenty twenty three off season pays
him just over seven million dollars a year, and salaries
(03:27):
have significantly risen since then for NBA coaches, So when
he gets his next deal, I do think he'll be
due for a significant raise, both based on his performance
and escalating salaries across the league. If e may tells
you that he wants to leave, or if you're just
so far apart in the financial negotiations for the next contract,
(03:52):
and I think assuming he may says in Houston long term,
and I think that's certainly the plan. He's viewed as
a foundation peace by rafel Stone, gem of the Rockets,
by Tilden Furtida and the Purtida family ownership here in Houston.
Everyone loves them, you know, the culture he's brought the
elite deep then that he's already turned this group into
within the first two years, really within the first year,
(04:15):
at some point before the twenty six to twenty seven season,
the one that starts not this fall, but the one
after that. So we're talking sixteen seventeen months out. At
some point between now and then, most likely next summer,
but it could be this summer. You're going to have
to give him a contract extension, because, as we learned
during Mike d'antoni's stint here in Houston in the twenty tens,
(04:37):
it is very rare and gets uncomfortable if you're an
outlier and you do it. For a coach to enter
the lane, duck year of his contract, and it could
have some consequences in terms of the coaching staff that
he has, because coaches with options don't want to be
in a situation where there might be complete turnover within
(04:57):
a year. So for purposes of annuity within the coaching
staff and obviously a long term vision Organizationally, it's the
industry standard that deals for head coaches who are secure
are typically more than one year out. So at some
point between now and the fall of twenty twenty six,
(05:20):
the Rockets and emay Udoka are going to have to
enter into contract negotiations. And if the two sides are
so far apart that the Rockets think there's a risk
that he leaves once his contract expires, or if he
may just tells you that for one reason or another,
I don't want to be in Houston, then yeah, you
(05:41):
would be foolish not to consider a scenario where you
could get some asssets for letting him go early. If
the next we're willing to give you first round draft
capital and a lot of cash, and he may tells
you that he wants out, or you don't think you're
going to be able to keep him long term because
you're not in agreement financially anywhere close. That's why I
wouldn't one hundred percent rule it out, but I think
(06:03):
that is very, very unlikely. I have not heard any
indications that e May is anything but happy here in Houston.
As far as the market factor, He's actually from Portland.
He's a West Coast guy, so New York is actually
further from his home base than Houston is. I don't
see him viewing the Knicks as any more desirable, especially
(06:24):
when you look forward here in Houston and the outlook
with this core seven and the Rockets continuing to build,
continuing to improve. Rockets actually had a better record than
the this year, even though the Knicks made it to
the conference finals. It feels like they were better, but
that's largely a product at the Eastern Conference, and obviously
there's high pressure. It's a group that's already pot committed
(06:44):
with how they've spent so many future resources financially draft
assets to put this team together, as opposed to the Rockets,
who are still at the beginning of their upcycle. When
it comes to this group and developing into a contender,
a much younger team has much more room to grow
organically and improve yere and year as opposed to a
(07:05):
roster in New York that is certainly good, especially in
the East, but for the most part, it just is
what it is, so there's higher pressure, there's less upward
mobility when you look at the players on the roster
and the assets to make big moves going forward. I
don't see why the Knicks unless the Rockets are just
offering such a low rate for his next contract that
(07:27):
it's uncompetitive. I don't see why the Knicks would appeal
to Emy more than the Rockets. I don't see why
the East Coast, given the e May's history, would be
of any significance to him. I think the odds on
extremely likely scenario is that e May is content here
in Houston. Certainly ownership and Rafelstone GM of the Rockets
(07:51):
is very content with him, and at some point between
now and the follow up twenty six he gets an
extension and he stays in Houston. With that said, until
it happens, it's fair to wonder, and so that's why
I wouldn't entirely rule it out. Look, the Fertitas have
talked a big game about being willing to invest when
it matters, but they haven't paid the luxury tax yet.
(08:14):
We know there's no salary cap on coaching hires, and
salaries have risen significantly since they've reached their first deal
with EMAY in April of twenty twenty three. So yeah,
at some point ownership is going to have to put
up or shut up. They have not failed any test
with this version of the rebuild, they just haven't been
tested to this level just yet because the rebuild has
(08:39):
sort of been in its infancy the last couple of years.
The next few years, things are certainly going to escalate financially, expectations,
all those types of factors, and so I don't personally
have any doubts that the Fertidas will pay up when
it's time. They've said all the right things, and from
all I can tell, Tolman had some really good business
(09:00):
deals early this decade, so I think he's personally in
very good shape. Financially. We know how they invested very
proactively on the new training facility, which was seventy plus
million dollars, I believe, So I don't have any reason
to doubt that EMAY is going to be in Houston
long term. The Rockets love him. I think he loves Houston,
(09:21):
the e May that is, and I think ownership is
going to be willing to pay. But look, there are
no salaries, there are no salary caps, excuse me on
coaching salaries, and so until the deal is done, until
the ink is dry, it's fair to have at least
maybe one percent doubt. And that's where a scenario like
(09:41):
this can come into play. And I highly doubt that
e May or his representation is going to come out
and deny it, because look, it's good for Emay to
have his name out there. If the Knicks or any
other team wants to say publicly that they like Imai Ujoka,
that's a useful tool in those upcoming contents negotiations for
the Rockets, for Ema to be able to say, look,
(10:03):
I have options, I am desirable on the open market.
So while I don't think anything is going to come
of this, I also don't think you're going to see
a quick statement from Emay saying, oh, there's nothing to this,
I'm happy. No, it's good for his lefverage to have
suitors until the ink is dry on that next contract,
and maybe the Rockets to it a year early. The
(10:24):
industry standard is typically one year out, which will be
next summer. But at some point in the next year
or so, Emay and the Rockets are going to enter
into negotiations. And from EMA's perspective, this is a useful
club to have in the bag, the fact that he
can point to other teams and in this case, a
big market team that has a ton of money a
(10:44):
lot of desirability. Yeah, it's good for Emay to have
this rumor out there. And while I don't think that
it's anything that you should sweat, at the same time,
until the ink is dry, you can't rule anything out.
And if for one reason or another, either e May
really wants to leave for whatever reason, or the Rockets
just financially say hey, it's not worth it. There's these
(11:07):
other qualified head coaches, certainly Thibodeaux who the Knicks just
let go, Michael Malone from Denver, Taylor Jenkins from Memphis.
If the Rockets think they can get a comparable coach
for way cheaper, I guess you can't rule it out.
And in that scenario, if you think you're going to
move on and you can get assets from the next
for letting Emy out of his contract early and basically
(11:27):
do a coaching trade. You can't entirely rule it out,
but I think that is very very unlikely. I think
the Rockets view E may as foundational, not just for
the x's and o's, but culturally for the program that
he's built and is still building in Houston. I think
they value him very highly. I think he'll be rewarded
(11:49):
handsomely in his next contract and this will just be
a footnote that's maybe used a little bit of negotiations
but doesn't really get off the ground. That's my expectation.
I think it's much ado about nothing, but you can't
entirely rule it out. I think it's very very unlikely,
but it would be foolish until the Inkies try to
(12:09):
say that it's totally impossible, because there is a rule
where it makes sense to get something rather than risk
losing him for nothing. If the Knicks like him enough,
and it seems like they do to be willing to
pay some sort of a premium to get him out
of his contract here in Houston. All right, that's the
(12:31):
coaching situation. Let's move on to players. As mentioned, Kelly
Eco had a great article in The Athletic going through
all the considerations for the Rockets in June as they
get ready for the draft and free agency later this month.
Tons of good tidbits. I'm not going to come close
to reading them all in today's podcast. Please subscribe to
The Athletic if you have not already, because you get
(12:52):
tons of great insight. Kelly's one of the best young
reporters that I've seen across the entire league. The part
I'm going to hone in on is this thing about
the Rockets and the Suns and Kevin Durant, because, as
I said in Monday Night Show, it's largely about waiting
for the Suns to come back to the table. The
Rockets have these future draft assets from Phoenix that should
(13:14):
be disproportionately valuable to the Suns in their situation. We've
talked about it before, and it's just a matter of
when the Suns are willing to be serious when it
comes to how they're valuing their players and the deals
they're willing to take. To this point, it doesn't feel
like they've been very serious, not just based on what
I've heard from the Rockets in terms of trade talks
(13:36):
between the Rockets and the Suns, but the lack of
deals elsewhere it's not like the Rockets are driving a
hard bargain. No, the Suns haven't done much of anything
because I think they've been fundamentally unseerious when it comes
to some of the asking prices. The question is would
they ever relent, And at least on Kevin Durant, it
feels like they are. And it makes sense because he's
thirty six, will turn thirty seven later this year, and
(13:58):
he's one year out from his free agency. So you're
at a point now where if you don't trade him,
there's a world where you lose him for nothing a
year from now, or perhaps he's play declines because he's
older and he's in a situation where he's probably not
going to be very happy. So yeah, this is an
interesting spot for Phoenix where their hand could be forced.
And I'll reave Kelly's report. This is not to say
(14:21):
the Rockets and Suns are not in communication. On the contrary,
Phoenix is aggressive in pursuit of a trading Kevin Durant
and b regating full control of their draft capital starting
with the number ten pick in the June draft. Since
the conclusion of the season, Houston has fielded several calls
from Phoenix, who have since gradually lowered their asking price
for Durant. According to team sources, there is a price
(14:43):
where the Rockets would be interested, but with the fear
of breaking up the roster for a thirty six year
old coming up injury, doubt remains over a deal materializing.
The key part there, there is a price where the
Rockets would be interested. That's the phrase you need to
hone in on because a lot of what's been reported
thus far is posturing. And I've said this for weeks,
(15:06):
for months. You cannot take reports at face value in
terms of who the Rockets are or aren't interested in.
It's a constant game. There are always negotiations. The question
is what happens if the price becomes more reasonable and
so the Rockets have not been interested at the asking
price for Durant in the past, but if it gets
(15:27):
low enough, and it's not going to be nothing because
you have to match salaries in the trade. Durant's going
to make over fifty million dollars next year, so you
have to send out over forty from your own roster.
It's not easy. But the fact that there is a
price is noteworthy because the Suns are getting to a
point where if they don't deal them now, they might
(15:47):
not get anything. And there is once the draft passes,
that's an asset directly from the Suns that they would
have all the incentive in the world to want. That's
going to lose value. Tell you if the Rockets make
the pick and the Suns don't. So now you're getting
to a point where waiting longer has consequences, and that
(16:09):
one of those Phoenix draft assets. You just went through
a hillacious season where everything went wrong thirty six and
forty six and you don't even get a first round
draft pick in the lottery out of it. That's a
better pill to swallow. And if you don't do a
deal by the draft, that's going to be the end result.
So there are consequences to waiting there. There are consequences
to Durant being less than a year from his free
(16:30):
agency and what that means for his for his potential market,
and what the Rockets, what the Suns, excuse me, can
bring in via trade. So we're getting to a point
now where there are actual consequences for the Suns to
waiting that aren't just theoretical. They're undeniable. The only question
is is there a deal that makes sense for the
(16:50):
Rockets when you consider what they would have to give up.
Kelly reports, and I trust Kelly that there is. So
this is a very different scenario than Yannis. We've talked
about the Yannis negotiations in recent pods. Those would be
very pricey for the Rockets. A thirty year old MVP
(17:10):
candidate in his prime, and you would have to give
up most of your future draft capital at least one
blue chip player from your current team, most likely all
per in Shangoon. And it's probably worth it if he's available,
because it's Shannis. He's one of the best three players
in the world. But it would radically transform your model.
With Durant, it's the other end of the spectrum. The
(17:32):
appeal to Kevin Durant. Now, he's a good player. He
averaged I think like twenty seven points per game last year,
and he's still insanely efficient from a shooting perspective, basically
fifty forty ninety shooting splits every year. He's a good player. Well,
he's a very good player. He's probably still top fifteen
in the league, but he's not at that Yannis top
three level. But between his age, the future Phoenix draft picks,
(17:57):
and the hold that Houston has on Phoenix from the
leverage for perspective, between being just one year away from
his free agency as opposed to two in the case
of Giannis, Kdi also has more leverage, and by being
able to say I want Houston, he might can drive
the price down to where it's even lower. Between all
of those factors, you can potentially add KD without dramatically
(18:20):
changing the foundation of your team. Talking to people within
the Rockets, the intrigue with KD is he would open
your contending window earlier, but he wouldn't shut it any sooner.
With Giannis, the ceiling is probably higher just because he's
that damn good, but there would be a risk of
(18:41):
your window closing sooner simply based on the asset capital
that you would have to send out. There's a world
where and this is the type of deal that Kelly
Eco is talking about, where the Rockets can add KD
and it opens the contending window, perhaps as soon as
next season, But because they're not sending out foundational pieces
(19:01):
or premium draft assets that would preclude their ability to
make future deals, it doesn't close the window any sooner. Basically,
KD would be something of a bridge in that he's
your offensive engine for the next couple of years. I'm
sure you'd sign into an extension if you trade for him,
and then by the late twenty twenties, that's when you're
(19:23):
hoping guys like Amman, Thompson and Reed Shepherd are fully
able to take the reins offensively to be something closer
to the engines of this team with Yannis. It's just
an interesting thought exercise. The ceiling next year would be
crazy high. You'd have an elite pairing in Yannis and Amen,
but because of the exorbitant price, there would potentially be
(19:49):
a timeline consideration in that it potentially limits what you
can do around twenty thirty or so. Once Giannis is
aging out. You don't have as much depth from the
pipeline in terms of other members of the young core
future draft assets that you can either pick yourself or
trade in future deals. You'd have to give up all
(20:10):
of them to get Yannis as opposed to KD. Maybe
you don't have quite the ceiling next year, but it's
much more of a status quo. You can continue building.
Have the vast majority of the current infrastructure still in place,
and simply have him as a bridge to help you
contend in the interim and to get you to a
(20:31):
point where by the latter part of this decade, hopefully
one or more members of your current young core are
able to fully take the reins on offense as the
primary playmakers and engines for what we hope is a
sustainable contender. So both sides have their pluses and minuses.
But that's why, and I've said for weeks I would
not rule out KD if the price is lowered up.
(20:54):
The Suns to this point have driven a hard bargain
and have said that they're not willing to go there.
But at some point the offers just aren't going to
be there when you factor in his age, and especially
if he's willing to be insistent on one or two destinations.
What's going to happen when the Suns aren't getting the
deals that they see. I think we're seeing now according
(21:16):
to kind of eCos reporting, that the price is going
down to a point where maybe it's manageable for the Rockets.
And again I'm not saying it's a slam dunk decision.
There's pros to going with the honest simply based on
the short term upside top three player in the world.
There's also pros to just simply saying the course and
letting the core seven and you have another top ten
pick from the Suns this year, just letting all this
young talent marinate. There's pros and cons to every scenario,
(21:40):
but there is a pro to the KD scenario for sure,
if the price is low enough, and it sounds like
we're getting to where that's at least a possibility. Now,
the big question that everybody has what would that price
actually be. I know it would not include a Men Thompson.
Let's be clear, and Men Thompson is untouchable for Kate,
for Yannis, for anybody. He is not going anywhere. I
(22:03):
think it is very unlikely that the Rockets would move
all per in Shangoon, a fourth year All Star for
a thirty six year old so to be thirty seven
Kevin Durant. I just don't think at his age and
contractual status that he or the Suns have that type
of leverage. So I don't think Shinggoon would be in
this deal. I do think he'd be in a honest deal,
(22:23):
and I'm told that if the Rockets make a deal
that helps them in the short term that inherently is
win now, at least to some extent that Fred, then
Fleet would not be in it. The Rockets really value
Fred in the short term and believe that he is
extremely important when it comes to their ability to win
at a high level next season. In other words, if
(22:44):
they didn't have Fred, the surrounding team would not be
good enough to where it's worthwhile to go out and
bring in someone like a Giannis or a KD. So
I know there's been a lot made of Fred's salary
in the forties potentially being the matching filler that you need.
I don't think that would be the case. I'm told
pretty firmly that in any scenario where the Rockets are
(23:06):
making a win now move, Fred needs to be on
that roster. Otherwise they don't think they're good enough for
that contending window to actually be open. So how do
the Rockets get to the salary figure outgoing? That is,
it would have to be something in the forties, with
KD in the fifties to where it's close enough for
the deal to be allowable under the NBA's Collective Bargaining agreement,
(23:31):
So the Rockets have about thirteen million and expiring salary
that they don't really need that's unessential. Jocklandel at eight
million and Aaron Holliday at a little under five, so
you've got thirteen million there, and realistically that's about it
because the Sun's of the second Apron team. I don't
think you can sign and trade someone like a Jeff
Green or a Jay Shantate to a bloated deal. I
(23:53):
don't think they can accept a sign and traded player.
And I guess theoretically you could look at like a
three or fourteen deal and try and run out out
someone else's cap space and sign and trade them there,
but I doubt that makes sense because a team's not
going to do that out of the goodness of their heart.
You would have to compensate them and term the draft equity.
And the only reason the Rockets would be interested in
a thirty six so going to be thirty seven year
(24:15):
old KD given how young they are already, is if
the cost is low enough, and so I don't think
the Rockets would be willing to give a lot of
future draft capital what it would take to rent out
cap space, even if there was a three or fourteen
configuration with a you know, some other team taking Jeff
Green on a bloated one year deal to help make
the mathwork. I think realistically you've got thirteen million between
(24:36):
Landale and Aaron Holliday that would be filler expiring salary,
and then you'd have to give about thirty or so
millions something in that ballpark to make the mathwork for
Katie from there, and that would have to have some
appeal for Phoenix as well. Otherwise why would they do
the trade. It has to help them on some level.
(24:59):
So how would the Rockets make up that last thirty million?
What would a deal look like? Again, I'm told pretty
firmly it would not be Fred Benfleet. I don't think
the Suns have the leverage to get all for in Shongoon.
I don't know who it actually would be. This is
me just reading the tea leaves. I don't think it
would be Jalen Green. If you waited until July, he
(25:21):
could be the thirty million dollar piece, But I do
think his skill set is still very distinct and unique
on this Houston roster. The playoffs were disappointing, but I
do think that the Rockets are looking at the season
as a whole, which, well, not great, was good for Jalen.
(25:41):
He did take some strides and kd for all of
his strengths, He's not a backcourt shot creator type of
guy with Jalen. For all of his flaws, he is
a creator. He's got wiggle, he's got burst. For all
the talk about, well if you played Kim Whitmore, Kim
(26:01):
Whitmore is a play finisher at this stage. He's nothing
close to Jalen Green as a creator. And there is
still a lot of upside to Jalen. We saw it
in stretches this season. I wouldn't rule out Jalen being
in the deal, but I think the Rockets do see
the upside. There's not anyone on the roster as is
(26:22):
that's ready to replace him in that role as the
primary backcourt engine from a scoring perspective. My gut tells
me this is not source. This is just my gut
that he would stay because I think if you're bringing
in someone like a Durant or Arianis, you are putting
more weight on next season. You want to have at
(26:43):
least some chance to contend for a title, and I
think for it to make sense. The Rockets probably need
Jalen as they're starting two guard, So how else would
the Rockets get to the thirty million dollar figure? I
think the most likely scenario, and again this is not source,
this is me reading the tea leaves. It would be
(27:03):
Dylan Brooks and Jabari Smith Junior, and it would sting,
But I don't think losing either of those guys is grippling.
That's where I go back to what I mentioned earlier.
The way the Rockets view a potential Katie acquisition is
the contending window opens sooner, but it doesn't close any faster.
With Dylan Brooks. Look, you'd be upgrading his spot in
(27:26):
the starting lineup. Let's just be blunt. Dylan Brooks is
a very good player, but he's a role player and
he's coming up a career shooting year. Kad is way better,
so you've got to free up a starting lineup spot
no matter what. It's a pretty easy drop in replacement there,
and who knows if Dylan would be around after his
next contract. Anyway, there has been a little bit of
slippage in terms of perimeter defense from Dylan, still very good,
(27:48):
but not quite as shifty from side to side as
he was early in his career, a pretty standard as
when defenders get into their late twenties and soon to
be thirties. It would hurt to lose Dylan. He's a
big culture guy. The Kadi is a really good culture
guy too, and he's a Hall of Famer, and he's
probably still a top fifteen player. I believe he's still
an All Star. Losing Dylan would sting, but I don't
(28:10):
think that it's anything transformative to your long term outlook,
and eventually I think his minutes would be sort of
phased out as the Rockets have more members of their
young core taking steps forward in the coming years, and
then Javari Smith. It would sting, but I think the
Rockets viewed Jabbari as being high floor but relatively low ceiling,
(28:34):
and I think it's become clear. Look in the playoff
series against the Warriors, you can tell a lot by
minutes totals, and even though Javaris shot while in that
series he averages twenty minutes per game and played just
twelve in Game seven, I do think that while they
like him, they see a ceiling there. I also think
that with so many young players coming up for contract
(28:55):
extensions the next few years, you're not going to be
able to pay them all. So between Jabari being two
for an extension, if not this offseason, certainly next, and
him being a little lower ceiling relative to guys like
certainly a Men and Tari Eason, but even Jalen Green,
I think whether he reaches the ceiling is very much
(29:18):
an open question, but I think he has a higher
ceiling than Jabari. It would suck to lose Jabari, and
I get the fan base being a little reluctant to
give up a twenty two year old Jabari for what's
going to be a thirty seven year old KD. There's
a little bit of sticker shock to that when you
look at the ages. But I don't think the Rockets
(29:39):
view Jabari as essential to the long term formula. He's
a nice player, he's useful, but at the end of
the day, if you have to replace him through other means,
I think they feel like they can potentially find not
going to say a player exactly like him, but you
might can find you a player that does eighty percent
(29:59):
of what he does at fifty percent of the cost.
Something like that. When you look at potential MLA signings
guys they could trade for. It would sting to lose Jabari,
but I don't think that it would dramatically change the
long term puzzle when the contending window is open or
potentially shut. I just don't think the Rockets, and I
(30:20):
think the minutes totals in the playoffs when you have
to think upside reflect that. I don't think they view
him as an essential long term piece. Now you can
disagree with them on that, but I'm just speaking to
what I think their thought process is in these negotiations.
It wouldn't be easy to lose Diloman Jabari, and they're
loved in the locker room, great culture guys, But I
don't think it would be crippling in the short term
(30:43):
or the long term. And so that's why I think
it would be palatable to the Rockets when we're talking
about a Kevin Durant that to this point it's still
an all star level player, and based on how elite
he is as a shooter, should at least have two
or three really good years left, and who knows, maybe
more than that, I mean Lebron's lane into his sporties.
Maybe Kevin is capable of that as well. Sports science
(31:03):
has come such a long way. But I just think
that if you can upgrade the next two or three
years and give yourself at least something of a contention
window in the short term, the Rockets would view those
as acceptable sacrifices. Now again, I have not been told
that it is possible financially that Shalen or Shongoon could
(31:25):
be the pieces instead, But just reading the tea leaves
and looking at what the roster would look like and
knowing that the Rockets want to contend next season, if
they were to do something like this, I think Dylan
and Jabari would most likely be the asset pathway, and
then beyond that there would be the question of the
Phoenix picks. I think certainly the twenty five number ten
(31:48):
overall would be in the deal. I don't think both
twenty seven and twenty nine would be in it under
any circumstances unless you're talking about somehow a massive deal
that includes Devin Booker as well, and I haven't been
given any indications that that's on the table. I don't
think Kadi alone would be enough to get both twenty
five and twenty seven. Maybe KD and something else from
the Suns. Maybe you know they'll after this draft passes.
(32:11):
I think they'll have a pick in the twenty thirties
that they could move. Maybe something like that makes sense,
and the Suns can have a mini rebuild in the
interium where they have some draft capital in the short term.
And the Rockets, because they can't play or pay all
these young guys in the interium, maybe it makes more
sense for them to sort of diversify their portfolio and
(32:33):
push picks fur their out. Maybe something like that happens,
or maybe it's just the twenty five and you know
the player component. By the way, with deals happening in
the offseason, NBA teams can have expanded rosters up to
twenty twenty one players by the time you factor in
two ways. So it's easier to consolidate, you know, sending
out for or five players for one to make the
salaries work in the offseason than it is in the
(32:55):
regular season. That's why you don't have to sweat talking
about well, if you're sending out four or five Phoenix,
take all those guys in and the off season, that
actually will not be that difficult and you can rope
in a third or fourteen if you absolutely need it
for someone like a landale or a holiday to offload them,
it wouldn't be a slam dunk deal. You can argue
against it. But I do think that from a Rockets perspective,
(33:19):
they see it as a path that would upgrade their
short term odds without really crippling the long term in
any super meaningful way. And so I think they'll do
their due diligence, and whether it gets to the finish line,
a lot of it's out of their hands. How low
are the Suns willing to go, how messy is Kevin
Durant willing to get. You know, if he says Houston
(33:41):
or bus, that would go a long way to perhaps
you know, tanking his market to where the Suns are
forced to go even lower as opposed to you know,
if he says, yeah, I like Houston, but I also
like San Antonio and Minnesota have been rumored as suitors.
The wider KD list is the less likely it's going
(34:02):
to be for the market to be low enough that
a deal makes sense to the Rockets. So some of
it depends on what the Suns are willing to do,
some of it depends on how messy KD is willing
to get I do know that KD wants to be
in Houston. He likes this situation. It's just a matter
of is KD solely focused on Houston or is Houston
(34:23):
one of two three four locations that he's open to.
Time will tell, and I think it's going to play
out in the next three weeks between now and the draft,
because again, as we mentioned Monday, there's a cost of waiting.
If the Rockets make that pick at ten that's going
to be less desirable to the Suns, then if Phoenix
can go through the process themselves and make that selection.
(34:46):
So I think this stuff that's going to come to
a head in the next few weeks with KD. With Yannis,
I don't think the Rockets are out on Gianness by
any means. It just seems like there's been a little
bit more movement on the KD front, which makes sense
because he's older and he's closer to his content tracked expiring,
So the Rockets have fielded more calls. If Jannis decides
to push a ship to the table and actually ask
(35:06):
for a trade, then those talks can pick up as well.
It's just right now you're hearing more on KD because
I think there's a little bit more of a sense
of urgency from the Suns to get something done. We'll
see if it happens, but it makes sense, and hopefully
today's pod has provided a little bit of color as
to what the Rockets are thinking and what some of
(35:28):
the considerations are as they decide whether they ultimately want
to get this done over the next two or three weeks.
Last thing I want to get to on today's pod
is the brook Lopez report in that same Killy Eco
story in the Athletic, because some I get it. We
all know Brook Lopez spurned the Rockets two years ago,
(35:51):
and so there's a lot of bitterness from the fan base.
And he's thirty seven years old, and let's be clear,
brook Lopez is a backup plan to Stephen Ahams. Steven
Adams was great in the playoffs. He's just thirty one
years old. The Rockets have bird rights to potentially retain him.
So in terms of that second big behind all for
Inchhan Goon, Steven Adams is the priority. Kelly says that
(36:14):
in his article, and I've heard the saying from all
of my conversations with the Rockets. Stephen is the priority.
They are hopeful he will return, and I think he
probably will because even though he's an unrestricted free agent,
he looked really good in the playoffs. Look, he's in
his thirties and the average about thirteen minutes per game
during the regular season, and I don't think he even
(36:36):
played in sixty games, So I think it's a stretch
to think that some team's going to offer him big
money and more importantly, a big role to where he's
playing thirty plus minutes per game as the starting center
over a two games. I think a timeshare arrangement makes
all the sense in the world for Steven to prolong
his career and to get the best version out of him.
(36:58):
So I'm hopeful that he'll stay in a similar role.
The Rockets have the bird rights. I haven't been given,
as with e May and those negotiations, any reason to
think the Rockets are going to cheap out, so I'm
still optimistic that he stays. With that said, all it
takes is one team, and he's an unrestricted free agent.
He can choose to leave if for one reason or another,
maybe he just wants to play somewhere else, maybe some
(37:20):
other team is willing to offer a ton either in money,
role or both. All it takes is one team, and
if Steven has an unrestricted free agent chooses to leave,
then yeah, you do need to have other plans and
you shouldn't look at this emotionally. Even if Brook Lopez
turned down this organization at the last hour a couple
of years ago. Look, he's still a very good big
(37:43):
man with a ton of size, can shoot threes at
a very high level, provides a similar physical presence to
Steven Adams different types of player. Steven's a way better rebounder,
but Brooke is a little bit better of a rem
protector and way better as an outside shooter. But in
terms of the double bit, yeah, yeah, I don't see
any reason to think that if Steven Adams and Shingoon
(38:04):
can play together, that Brooke and Shin Gooon wouldn't be
able to play together. So if the market with Brooke
being thirty seven and Stephen thirty one, has it to
where Steven is priced out of the Rocket's ability to retain,
but Brooke is more able and willing to sign and
accept the role that's available here in Houston as the
(38:27):
backup behind all para in Shinoon. It'd be foolish to
rule it out because he can provide you a lot
of the same skills. But perhaps in this world where
Steven has just exceeded your ability to retain him in
that role, if Brook, for one reason or another, is
the easier business fit, I don't see why you wouldn't
(38:48):
consider it. He's still a very good player. Look at
the advanced metrics. He'd be more short term in nature.
And that's why I hope the Rockets retain Steven Adams.
I think they probably will. Again, my personal gut feel
is that there's not going to be a team that's
willing to invest heavily, be it money or roll on
Steven Adams, given how limited his minutes were in the
regular season and now in his second decade in the NBA,
(39:12):
coming off a major knee surgery a couple of years ago.
But if that one team strikes and Stephen doesn't stay
and brooklope As is a guy who we know the
Rockets like, and physically you can do a lot of
the same things provide a similar presence to Steven Adams,
and especially in a world where if you trade for
a KDE or Giannis and you want to win in
(39:33):
the short term. Yeah, the Rockets can go for someone
with more youth than upside that. You know they have
Fally Dante on a two way deal something like that.
But if you're bringing in you know, you were with
the two seed in the West last year fifty two
and thirty, and you're making other big moves to emphasize
the short term, and there's gonna be some emphasis on
next year no matter what, because you're coming out a
(39:53):
year where you finished with the second best record in
the West. Brooklopez can be a good short term bridge
and you shouldn't let your feelings, true emotions play any
role when it comes to evaluating it strictly from a
basketball perspective and what gives you the best chance to
win games next year. I know it would be awkward.
I know we love to hate brook Lopez as a
(40:15):
fan base, But if Steven is priced out or rolled out,
I guess you would call it then brook Lopez makes
all the sense in the role if he's available and
he will be a free agent and he's more amenable
price wise or in terms of the role, role wise
to accept what's available here in Houston. It makes sense.
(40:36):
It wouldn't be fun again. My preference is for Steven
to be back. My prediction is that he will be.
But even if it's you know, awkward to read, Yeah,
brook Lopez makes sense as a backup plan. I don't
think you should be down on that at all. Anyway,
that'll do it for today's Romer Pod. Just wanted to
give some reaction to the news of the day when
it comes to email Kdi and Brooklopez. Hopefully this, you know,
(40:58):
appeels back to the curtain a little bit as far
as what the Rockets are thinking over on the west
Loop at their aforementioned practice facility where they're having meetings
all the time and running through all these scenarios. When
it comes to external trades, free agency, the draft later
this month, lots going on. It's a busy month across
the Association, especially here in Houston where the window for
title contention is very close to actually opening. Anyway, that'll
(41:21):
do it for today. But if you want more content
between now and our next episode, the best place to
get it is on social media. You can follow me
on Blue Sky at Bendubo's and on Twitter. We've got
pages for both. This show the lagger line and the
Rockets Wire the blog at USA today Sports Media Group,
where I'm the editor. You can also hit up Rocketsbar
dot USA today dot com and read all the daily
(41:41):
news coverage there and this show the logger line. If
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(42:03):
That's how we can look good to those aforementioned friends, sponsors,
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All right, that will do it for this Wednesday, June fourth.
Enjoy the rest of your day and we'll talk again soon.
Go Rockets.
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
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Today's Rockets. We are contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety,
official Flagshare radio station of your Houston Rockets. It's Wednesday,
(00:54):
June fourth, and finally, after a few quiet weeks to
begin the off season for the Rockets, we have we've
had some rumors this week. As fate would have it,
we put out that episode Monday night explaining why there
haven't been many updates, and within twelve hours, Curtesy of
Kelly Echo of the Athletic we had a few really
juicy tidbits about the Rockets and Kevin Durant, the Rockets
(01:15):
and Brook Lopez. We'll talk about those situations today, but
I'm going to start with the reports out of New
York with the Knicks moving on from Tom Thibodeau as
head coach, and multiple reporters Mark Stein, longtime national reporter,
and Ian Begley, longtime local reporter in New York covering
the Knicks, reporting that there's some level of interest that
(01:35):
the Knicks have in emy Udoka, head coach of the Rockets.
So this will be a fairly quick hitting episode, just
a few reactionary takes to the news of the last
twenty four to thirty six hours and what the implications
are for fans of the Rockets and the remainder of
the twenty twenty five Houston Rockets off season. I'll start
with the emy Udoka reports out of New York, because
(01:58):
if somehow that happened, that would be a transformative thing
and not in a good way to the future outlook
of the Rockets. However, I am personally, very very skeptical
that there are any legs to those reports. It's nice
to be appreciated and ima Udoka finished third and Coach
of the Year voting for a reason. The strides the
(02:20):
Rockets have made the last two seasons have been undeniable,
and so when a big market team has a vacancy,
and they see a relatively young head coach having a
ton of success somewhere else in the league, it's natural
that they would be interested. However, I have not heard
anything to suggest that New York's interest is reciprocated by
(02:40):
e May and or other members of the Houston coaching staff.
And I also don't think the Rockets have any interest
in moving on or cheaping out, whatever the case may be,
and turning over the reins to someone else. Now, I
won't entirely rule it out, because look, even though Emay
is under contract, it's not that different from a player
(03:03):
that wants out. If you think that, and when I
say you, I mean the organization that you're at risk
of losing the asset for no compensation if he may
tells you that when his contract expires in a couple
of years. He's midway through a four year deal that
he signed in the twenty twenty three off season pays
him just over seven million dollars a year, and salaries
(03:27):
have significantly risen since then for NBA coaches, So when
he gets his next deal, I do think he'll be
due for a significant raise, both based on his performance
and escalating salaries across the league. If e may tells
you that he wants to leave, or if you're just
so far apart in the financial negotiations for the next contract,
(03:52):
and I think assuming he may says in Houston long term,
and I think that's certainly the plan. He's viewed as
a foundation peace by rafel Stone, gem of the Rockets,
by Tilden Furtida and the Purtida family ownership here in Houston.
Everyone loves them, you know, the culture he's brought the
elite deep then that he's already turned this group into
within the first two years, really within the first year,
(04:15):
at some point before the twenty six to twenty seven season,
the one that starts not this fall, but the one
after that. So we're talking sixteen seventeen months out. At
some point between now and then, most likely next summer,
but it could be this summer. You're going to have
to give him a contract extension, because, as we learned
during Mike d'antoni's stint here in Houston in the twenty tens,
(04:37):
it is very rare and gets uncomfortable if you're an
outlier and you do it. For a coach to enter
the lane, duck year of his contract, and it could
have some consequences in terms of the coaching staff that
he has, because coaches with options don't want to be
in a situation where there might be complete turnover within
(04:57):
a year. So for purposes of annuity within the coaching
staff and obviously a long term vision Organizationally, it's the
industry standard that deals for head coaches who are secure
are typically more than one year out. So at some
point between now and the fall of twenty twenty six,
(05:20):
the Rockets and emay Udoka are going to have to
enter into contract negotiations. And if the two sides are
so far apart that the Rockets think there's a risk
that he leaves once his contract expires, or if he
may just tells you that for one reason or another,
I don't want to be in Houston, then yeah, you
(05:41):
would be foolish not to consider a scenario where you
could get some asssets for letting him go early. If
the next we're willing to give you first round draft
capital and a lot of cash, and he may tells
you that he wants out, or you don't think you're
going to be able to keep him long term because
you're not in agreement financially anywhere close. That's why I
wouldn't one hundred percent rule it out, but I think
(06:03):
that is very, very unlikely. I have not heard any
indications that e May is anything but happy here in Houston.
As far as the market factor, He's actually from Portland.
He's a West Coast guy, so New York is actually
further from his home base than Houston is. I don't
see him viewing the Knicks as any more desirable, especially
(06:24):
when you look forward here in Houston and the outlook
with this core seven and the Rockets continuing to build,
continuing to improve. Rockets actually had a better record than
the this year, even though the Knicks made it to
the conference finals. It feels like they were better, but
that's largely a product at the Eastern Conference, and obviously
there's high pressure. It's a group that's already pot committed
(06:44):
with how they've spent so many future resources financially draft
assets to put this team together, as opposed to the Rockets,
who are still at the beginning of their upcycle. When
it comes to this group and developing into a contender,
a much younger team has much more room to grow
organically and improve yere and year as opposed to a
(07:05):
roster in New York that is certainly good, especially in
the East, but for the most part, it just is
what it is, so there's higher pressure, there's less upward
mobility when you look at the players on the roster
and the assets to make big moves going forward. I
don't see why the Knicks unless the Rockets are just
offering such a low rate for his next contract that
(07:27):
it's uncompetitive. I don't see why the Knicks would appeal
to Emy more than the Rockets. I don't see why
the East Coast, given the e May's history, would be
of any significance to him. I think the odds on
extremely likely scenario is that e May is content here
in Houston. Certainly ownership and Rafelstone GM of the Rockets
(07:51):
is very content with him, and at some point between
now and the follow up twenty six he gets an
extension and he stays in Houston. With that said, until
it happens, it's fair to wonder, and so that's why
I wouldn't entirely rule it out. Look, the Fertitas have
talked a big game about being willing to invest when
it matters, but they haven't paid the luxury tax yet.
(08:14):
We know there's no salary cap on coaching hires, and
salaries have risen significantly since they've reached their first deal
with EMAY in April of twenty twenty three. So yeah,
at some point ownership is going to have to put
up or shut up. They have not failed any test
with this version of the rebuild, they just haven't been
tested to this level just yet because the rebuild has
(08:39):
sort of been in its infancy the last couple of years.
The next few years, things are certainly going to escalate financially, expectations,
all those types of factors, and so I don't personally
have any doubts that the Fertidas will pay up when
it's time. They've said all the right things, and from
all I can tell, Tolman had some really good business
(09:00):
deals early this decade, so I think he's personally in
very good shape. Financially. We know how they invested very
proactively on the new training facility, which was seventy plus
million dollars, I believe, So I don't have any reason
to doubt that EMAY is going to be in Houston
long term. The Rockets love him. I think he loves Houston,
(09:21):
the e May that is, and I think ownership is
going to be willing to pay. But look, there are
no salaries, there are no salary caps, excuse me on
coaching salaries, and so until the deal is done, until
the ink is dry, it's fair to have at least
maybe one percent doubt. And that's where a scenario like
(09:41):
this can come into play. And I highly doubt that
e May or his representation is going to come out
and deny it, because look, it's good for Emay to
have his name out there. If the Knicks or any
other team wants to say publicly that they like Imai Ujoka,
that's a useful tool in those upcoming contents negotiations for
the Rockets, for Ema to be able to say, look,
(10:03):
I have options, I am desirable on the open market.
So while I don't think anything is going to come
of this, I also don't think you're going to see
a quick statement from Emay saying, oh, there's nothing to this,
I'm happy. No, it's good for his lefverage to have
suitors until the ink is dry on that next contract,
and maybe the Rockets to it a year early. The
(10:24):
industry standard is typically one year out, which will be
next summer. But at some point in the next year
or so, Emay and the Rockets are going to enter
into negotiations. And from EMA's perspective, this is a useful
club to have in the bag, the fact that he
can point to other teams and in this case, a
big market team that has a ton of money a
(10:44):
lot of desirability. Yeah, it's good for Emay to have
this rumor out there. And while I don't think that
it's anything that you should sweat, at the same time,
until the ink is dry, you can't rule anything out.
And if for one reason or another, either e May
really wants to leave for whatever reason, or the Rockets
just financially say hey, it's not worth it. There's these
(11:07):
other qualified head coaches, certainly Thibodeaux who the Knicks just
let go, Michael Malone from Denver, Taylor Jenkins from Memphis.
If the Rockets think they can get a comparable coach
for way cheaper, I guess you can't rule it out.
And in that scenario, if you think you're going to
move on and you can get assets from the next
for letting Emy out of his contract early and basically
(11:27):
do a coaching trade. You can't entirely rule it out,
but I think that is very very unlikely. I think
the Rockets view E may as foundational, not just for
the x's and o's, but culturally for the program that
he's built and is still building in Houston. I think
they value him very highly. I think he'll be rewarded
(11:49):
handsomely in his next contract and this will just be
a footnote that's maybe used a little bit of negotiations
but doesn't really get off the ground. That's my expectation.
I think it's much ado about nothing, but you can't
entirely rule it out. I think it's very very unlikely,
but it would be foolish until the Inkies try to
(12:09):
say that it's totally impossible, because there is a rule
where it makes sense to get something rather than risk
losing him for nothing. If the Knicks like him enough,
and it seems like they do to be willing to
pay some sort of a premium to get him out
of his contract here in Houston. All right, that's the
(12:31):
coaching situation. Let's move on to players. As mentioned, Kelly
Eco had a great article in The Athletic going through
all the considerations for the Rockets in June as they
get ready for the draft and free agency later this month.
Tons of good tidbits. I'm not going to come close
to reading them all in today's podcast. Please subscribe to
The Athletic if you have not already, because you get
(12:52):
tons of great insight. Kelly's one of the best young
reporters that I've seen across the entire league. The part
I'm going to hone in on is this thing about
the Rockets and the Suns and Kevin Durant, because, as
I said in Monday Night Show, it's largely about waiting
for the Suns to come back to the table. The
Rockets have these future draft assets from Phoenix that should
(13:14):
be disproportionately valuable to the Suns in their situation. We've
talked about it before, and it's just a matter of
when the Suns are willing to be serious when it
comes to how they're valuing their players and the deals
they're willing to take. To this point, it doesn't feel
like they've been very serious, not just based on what
I've heard from the Rockets in terms of trade talks
(13:36):
between the Rockets and the Suns, but the lack of
deals elsewhere it's not like the Rockets are driving a
hard bargain. No, the Suns haven't done much of anything
because I think they've been fundamentally unseerious when it comes
to some of the asking prices. The question is would
they ever relent, And at least on Kevin Durant, it
feels like they are. And it makes sense because he's
thirty six, will turn thirty seven later this year, and
(13:58):
he's one year out from his free agency. So you're
at a point now where if you don't trade him,
there's a world where you lose him for nothing a
year from now, or perhaps he's play declines because he's
older and he's in a situation where he's probably not
going to be very happy. So yeah, this is an
interesting spot for Phoenix where their hand could be forced.
And I'll reave Kelly's report. This is not to say
(14:21):
the Rockets and Suns are not in communication. On the contrary,
Phoenix is aggressive in pursuit of a trading Kevin Durant
and b regating full control of their draft capital starting
with the number ten pick in the June draft. Since
the conclusion of the season, Houston has fielded several calls
from Phoenix, who have since gradually lowered their asking price
for Durant. According to team sources, there is a price
(14:43):
where the Rockets would be interested, but with the fear
of breaking up the roster for a thirty six year
old coming up injury, doubt remains over a deal materializing.
The key part there, there is a price where the
Rockets would be interested. That's the phrase you need to
hone in on because a lot of what's been reported
thus far is posturing. And I've said this for weeks,
(15:06):
for months. You cannot take reports at face value in
terms of who the Rockets are or aren't interested in.
It's a constant game. There are always negotiations. The question
is what happens if the price becomes more reasonable and
so the Rockets have not been interested at the asking
price for Durant in the past, but if it gets
(15:27):
low enough, and it's not going to be nothing because
you have to match salaries in the trade. Durant's going
to make over fifty million dollars next year, so you
have to send out over forty from your own roster.
It's not easy. But the fact that there is a
price is noteworthy because the Suns are getting to a
point where if they don't deal them now, they might
(15:47):
not get anything. And there is once the draft passes,
that's an asset directly from the Suns that they would
have all the incentive in the world to want. That's
going to lose value. Tell you if the Rockets make
the pick and the Suns don't. So now you're getting
to a point where waiting longer has consequences, and that
(16:09):
one of those Phoenix draft assets. You just went through
a hillacious season where everything went wrong thirty six and
forty six and you don't even get a first round
draft pick in the lottery out of it. That's a
better pill to swallow. And if you don't do a
deal by the draft, that's going to be the end result.
So there are consequences to waiting there. There are consequences
to Durant being less than a year from his free
(16:30):
agency and what that means for his for his potential market,
and what the Rockets, what the Suns, excuse me, can
bring in via trade. So we're getting to a point
now where there are actual consequences for the Suns to
waiting that aren't just theoretical. They're undeniable. The only question
is is there a deal that makes sense for the
(16:50):
Rockets when you consider what they would have to give up.
Kelly reports, and I trust Kelly that there is. So
this is a very different scenario than Yannis. We've talked
about the Yannis negotiations in recent pods. Those would be
very pricey for the Rockets. A thirty year old MVP
(17:10):
candidate in his prime, and you would have to give
up most of your future draft capital at least one
blue chip player from your current team, most likely all
per in Shangoon. And it's probably worth it if he's available,
because it's Shannis. He's one of the best three players
in the world. But it would radically transform your model.
With Durant, it's the other end of the spectrum. The
(17:32):
appeal to Kevin Durant. Now, he's a good player. He
averaged I think like twenty seven points per game last year,
and he's still insanely efficient from a shooting perspective, basically
fifty forty ninety shooting splits every year. He's a good player. Well,
he's a very good player. He's probably still top fifteen
in the league, but he's not at that Yannis top
three level. But between his age, the future Phoenix draft picks,
(17:57):
and the hold that Houston has on Phoenix from the
leverage for perspective, between being just one year away from
his free agency as opposed to two in the case
of Giannis, Kdi also has more leverage, and by being
able to say I want Houston, he might can drive
the price down to where it's even lower. Between all
of those factors, you can potentially add KD without dramatically
(18:20):
changing the foundation of your team. Talking to people within
the Rockets, the intrigue with KD is he would open
your contending window earlier, but he wouldn't shut it any sooner.
With Giannis, the ceiling is probably higher just because he's
that damn good, but there would be a risk of
(18:41):
your window closing sooner simply based on the asset capital
that you would have to send out. There's a world
where and this is the type of deal that Kelly
Eco is talking about, where the Rockets can add KD
and it opens the contending window, perhaps as soon as
next season, But because they're not sending out foundational pieces
(19:01):
or premium draft assets that would preclude their ability to
make future deals, it doesn't close the window any sooner. Basically,
KD would be something of a bridge in that he's
your offensive engine for the next couple of years. I'm
sure you'd sign into an extension if you trade for him,
and then by the late twenty twenties, that's when you're
(19:23):
hoping guys like Amman, Thompson and Reed Shepherd are fully
able to take the reins offensively to be something closer
to the engines of this team with Yannis. It's just
an interesting thought exercise. The ceiling next year would be
crazy high. You'd have an elite pairing in Yannis and Amen,
but because of the exorbitant price, there would potentially be
(19:49):
a timeline consideration in that it potentially limits what you
can do around twenty thirty or so. Once Giannis is
aging out. You don't have as much depth from the
pipeline in terms of other members of the young core
future draft assets that you can either pick yourself or
trade in future deals. You'd have to give up all
(20:10):
of them to get Yannis as opposed to KD. Maybe
you don't have quite the ceiling next year, but it's
much more of a status quo. You can continue building.
Have the vast majority of the current infrastructure still in place,
and simply have him as a bridge to help you
contend in the interim and to get you to a
(20:31):
point where by the latter part of this decade, hopefully
one or more members of your current young core are
able to fully take the reins on offense as the
primary playmakers and engines for what we hope is a
sustainable contender. So both sides have their pluses and minuses.
But that's why, and I've said for weeks I would
not rule out KD if the price is lowered up.
(20:54):
The Suns to this point have driven a hard bargain
and have said that they're not willing to go there.
But at some point the offers just aren't going to
be there when you factor in his age, and especially
if he's willing to be insistent on one or two destinations.
What's going to happen when the Suns aren't getting the
deals that they see. I think we're seeing now according
(21:16):
to kind of eCos reporting, that the price is going
down to a point where maybe it's manageable for the Rockets.
And again I'm not saying it's a slam dunk decision.
There's pros to going with the honest simply based on
the short term upside top three player in the world.
There's also pros to just simply saying the course and
letting the core seven and you have another top ten
pick from the Suns this year, just letting all this
young talent marinate. There's pros and cons to every scenario,
(21:40):
but there is a pro to the KD scenario for sure,
if the price is low enough, and it sounds like
we're getting to where that's at least a possibility. Now,
the big question that everybody has what would that price
actually be. I know it would not include a Men Thompson.
Let's be clear, and Men Thompson is untouchable for Kate,
for Yannis, for anybody. He is not going anywhere. I
(22:03):
think it is very unlikely that the Rockets would move
all per in Shangoon, a fourth year All Star for
a thirty six year old so to be thirty seven
Kevin Durant. I just don't think at his age and
contractual status that he or the Suns have that type
of leverage. So I don't think Shinggoon would be in
this deal. I do think he'd be in a honest deal,
(22:23):
and I'm told that if the Rockets make a deal
that helps them in the short term that inherently is
win now, at least to some extent that Fred, then
Fleet would not be in it. The Rockets really value
Fred in the short term and believe that he is
extremely important when it comes to their ability to win
at a high level next season. In other words, if
(22:44):
they didn't have Fred, the surrounding team would not be
good enough to where it's worthwhile to go out and
bring in someone like a Giannis or a KD. So
I know there's been a lot made of Fred's salary
in the forties potentially being the matching filler that you need.
I don't think that would be the case. I'm told
pretty firmly that in any scenario where the Rockets are
(23:06):
making a win now move, Fred needs to be on
that roster. Otherwise they don't think they're good enough for
that contending window to actually be open. So how do
the Rockets get to the salary figure outgoing? That is,
it would have to be something in the forties, with
KD in the fifties to where it's close enough for
the deal to be allowable under the NBA's Collective Bargaining agreement,
(23:31):
So the Rockets have about thirteen million and expiring salary
that they don't really need that's unessential. Jocklandel at eight
million and Aaron Holliday at a little under five, so
you've got thirteen million there, and realistically that's about it
because the Sun's of the second Apron team. I don't
think you can sign and trade someone like a Jeff
Green or a Jay Shantate to a bloated deal. I
(23:53):
don't think they can accept a sign and traded player.
And I guess theoretically you could look at like a
three or fourteen deal and try and run out out
someone else's cap space and sign and trade them there,
but I doubt that makes sense because a team's not
going to do that out of the goodness of their heart.
You would have to compensate them and term the draft equity.
And the only reason the Rockets would be interested in
a thirty six so going to be thirty seven year
(24:15):
old KD given how young they are already, is if
the cost is low enough, and so I don't think
the Rockets would be willing to give a lot of
future draft capital what it would take to rent out
cap space, even if there was a three or fourteen
configuration with a you know, some other team taking Jeff
Green on a bloated one year deal to help make
the mathwork. I think realistically you've got thirteen million between
(24:36):
Landale and Aaron Holliday that would be filler expiring salary,
and then you'd have to give about thirty or so
millions something in that ballpark to make the mathwork for
Katie from there, and that would have to have some
appeal for Phoenix as well. Otherwise why would they do
the trade. It has to help them on some level.
(24:59):
So how would the Rockets make up that last thirty million?
What would a deal look like? Again, I'm told pretty
firmly it would not be Fred Benfleet. I don't think
the Suns have the leverage to get all for in Shongoon.
I don't know who it actually would be. This is
me just reading the tea leaves. I don't think it
would be Jalen Green. If you waited until July, he
(25:21):
could be the thirty million dollar piece, But I do
think his skill set is still very distinct and unique
on this Houston roster. The playoffs were disappointing, but I
do think that the Rockets are looking at the season
as a whole, which, well, not great, was good for Jalen.
(25:41):
He did take some strides and kd for all of
his strengths, He's not a backcourt shot creator type of
guy with Jalen. For all of his flaws, he is
a creator. He's got wiggle, he's got burst. For all
the talk about, well if you played Kim Whitmore, Kim
(26:01):
Whitmore is a play finisher at this stage. He's nothing
close to Jalen Green as a creator. And there is
still a lot of upside to Jalen. We saw it
in stretches this season. I wouldn't rule out Jalen being
in the deal, but I think the Rockets do see
the upside. There's not anyone on the roster as is
(26:22):
that's ready to replace him in that role as the
primary backcourt engine from a scoring perspective. My gut tells
me this is not source. This is just my gut
that he would stay because I think if you're bringing
in someone like a Durant or Arianis, you are putting
more weight on next season. You want to have at
(26:43):
least some chance to contend for a title, and I
think for it to make sense. The Rockets probably need
Jalen as they're starting two guard, So how else would
the Rockets get to the thirty million dollar figure? I
think the most likely scenario, and again this is not source,
this is me reading the tea leaves. It would be
(27:03):
Dylan Brooks and Jabari Smith Junior, and it would sting,
But I don't think losing either of those guys is grippling.
That's where I go back to what I mentioned earlier.
The way the Rockets view a potential Katie acquisition is
the contending window opens sooner, but it doesn't close any faster.
With Dylan Brooks. Look, you'd be upgrading his spot in
(27:26):
the starting lineup. Let's just be blunt. Dylan Brooks is
a very good player, but he's a role player and
he's coming up a career shooting year. Kad is way better,
so you've got to free up a starting lineup spot
no matter what. It's a pretty easy drop in replacement there,
and who knows if Dylan would be around after his
next contract. Anyway, there has been a little bit of
slippage in terms of perimeter defense from Dylan, still very good,
(27:48):
but not quite as shifty from side to side as
he was early in his career, a pretty standard as
when defenders get into their late twenties and soon to
be thirties. It would hurt to lose Dylan. He's a
big culture guy. The Kadi is a really good culture
guy too, and he's a Hall of Famer, and he's
probably still a top fifteen player. I believe he's still
an All Star. Losing Dylan would sting, but I don't
(28:10):
think that it's anything transformative to your long term outlook,
and eventually I think his minutes would be sort of
phased out as the Rockets have more members of their
young core taking steps forward in the coming years, and
then Javari Smith. It would sting, but I think the
Rockets viewed Jabbari as being high floor but relatively low ceiling,
(28:34):
and I think it's become clear. Look in the playoff
series against the Warriors, you can tell a lot by
minutes totals, and even though Javaris shot while in that
series he averages twenty minutes per game and played just
twelve in Game seven, I do think that while they
like him, they see a ceiling there. I also think
that with so many young players coming up for contract
(28:55):
extensions the next few years, you're not going to be
able to pay them all. So between Jabari being two
for an extension, if not this offseason, certainly next, and
him being a little lower ceiling relative to guys like
certainly a Men and Tari Eason, but even Jalen Green,
I think whether he reaches the ceiling is very much
(29:18):
an open question, but I think he has a higher
ceiling than Jabari. It would suck to lose Jabari, and
I get the fan base being a little reluctant to
give up a twenty two year old Jabari for what's
going to be a thirty seven year old KD. There's
a little bit of sticker shock to that when you
look at the ages. But I don't think the Rockets
(29:39):
view Jabari as essential to the long term formula. He's
a nice player, he's useful, but at the end of
the day, if you have to replace him through other means,
I think they feel like they can potentially find not
going to say a player exactly like him, but you
might can find you a player that does eighty percent
(29:59):
of what he does at fifty percent of the cost.
Something like that. When you look at potential MLA signings
guys they could trade for. It would sting to lose Jabari,
but I don't think that it would dramatically change the
long term puzzle when the contending window is open or
potentially shut. I just don't think the Rockets, and I
(30:20):
think the minutes totals in the playoffs when you have
to think upside reflect that. I don't think they view
him as an essential long term piece. Now you can
disagree with them on that, but I'm just speaking to
what I think their thought process is in these negotiations.
It wouldn't be easy to lose Diloman Jabari, and they're
loved in the locker room, great culture guys, But I
don't think it would be crippling in the short term
(30:43):
or the long term. And so that's why I think
it would be palatable to the Rockets when we're talking
about a Kevin Durant that to this point it's still
an all star level player, and based on how elite
he is as a shooter, should at least have two
or three really good years left, and who knows, maybe
more than that, I mean Lebron's lane into his sporties.
Maybe Kevin is capable of that as well. Sports science
(31:03):
has come such a long way. But I just think
that if you can upgrade the next two or three
years and give yourself at least something of a contention
window in the short term, the Rockets would view those
as acceptable sacrifices. Now again, I have not been told
that it is possible financially that Shalen or Shongoon could
(31:25):
be the pieces instead, But just reading the tea leaves
and looking at what the roster would look like and
knowing that the Rockets want to contend next season, if
they were to do something like this, I think Dylan
and Jabari would most likely be the asset pathway, and
then beyond that there would be the question of the
Phoenix picks. I think certainly the twenty five number ten
(31:48):
overall would be in the deal. I don't think both
twenty seven and twenty nine would be in it under
any circumstances unless you're talking about somehow a massive deal
that includes Devin Booker as well, and I haven't been
given any indications that that's on the table. I don't
think Kadi alone would be enough to get both twenty
five and twenty seven. Maybe KD and something else from
the Suns. Maybe you know they'll after this draft passes.
(32:11):
I think they'll have a pick in the twenty thirties
that they could move. Maybe something like that makes sense,
and the Suns can have a mini rebuild in the
interium where they have some draft capital in the short term.
And the Rockets, because they can't play or pay all
these young guys in the interium, maybe it makes more
sense for them to sort of diversify their portfolio and
(32:33):
push picks fur their out. Maybe something like that happens,
or maybe it's just the twenty five and you know
the player component. By the way, with deals happening in
the offseason, NBA teams can have expanded rosters up to
twenty twenty one players by the time you factor in
two ways. So it's easier to consolidate, you know, sending
out for or five players for one to make the
salaries work in the offseason than it is in the
(32:55):
regular season. That's why you don't have to sweat talking
about well, if you're sending out four or five Phoenix,
take all those guys in and the off season, that
actually will not be that difficult and you can rope
in a third or fourteen if you absolutely need it
for someone like a landale or a holiday to offload them,
it wouldn't be a slam dunk deal. You can argue
against it. But I do think that from a Rockets perspective,
(33:19):
they see it as a path that would upgrade their
short term odds without really crippling the long term in
any super meaningful way. And so I think they'll do
their due diligence, and whether it gets to the finish line,
a lot of it's out of their hands. How low
are the Suns willing to go, how messy is Kevin
Durant willing to get. You know, if he says Houston
(33:41):
or bus, that would go a long way to perhaps
you know, tanking his market to where the Suns are
forced to go even lower as opposed to you know,
if he says, yeah, I like Houston, but I also
like San Antonio and Minnesota have been rumored as suitors.
The wider KD list is the less likely it's going
(34:02):
to be for the market to be low enough that
a deal makes sense to the Rockets. So some of
it depends on what the Suns are willing to do,
some of it depends on how messy KD is willing
to get I do know that KD wants to be
in Houston. He likes this situation. It's just a matter
of is KD solely focused on Houston or is Houston
(34:23):
one of two three four locations that he's open to.
Time will tell, and I think it's going to play
out in the next three weeks between now and the draft,
because again, as we mentioned Monday, there's a cost of waiting.
If the Rockets make that pick at ten that's going
to be less desirable to the Suns, then if Phoenix
can go through the process themselves and make that selection.
(34:46):
So I think this stuff that's going to come to
a head in the next few weeks with KD. With Yannis,
I don't think the Rockets are out on Gianness by
any means. It just seems like there's been a little
bit more movement on the KD front, which makes sense
because he's older and he's closer to his content tracked expiring,
So the Rockets have fielded more calls. If Jannis decides
to push a ship to the table and actually ask
(35:06):
for a trade, then those talks can pick up as well.
It's just right now you're hearing more on KD because
I think there's a little bit more of a sense
of urgency from the Suns to get something done. We'll
see if it happens, but it makes sense, and hopefully
today's pod has provided a little bit of color as
to what the Rockets are thinking and what some of
(35:28):
the considerations are as they decide whether they ultimately want
to get this done over the next two or three weeks.
Last thing I want to get to on today's pod
is the brook Lopez report in that same Killy Eco
story in the Athletic, because some I get it. We
all know Brook Lopez spurned the Rockets two years ago,
(35:51):
and so there's a lot of bitterness from the fan base.
And he's thirty seven years old, and let's be clear,
brook Lopez is a backup plan to Stephen Ahams. Steven
Adams was great in the playoffs. He's just thirty one
years old. The Rockets have bird rights to potentially retain him.
So in terms of that second big behind all for
Inchhan Goon, Steven Adams is the priority. Kelly says that
(36:14):
in his article, and I've heard the saying from all
of my conversations with the Rockets. Stephen is the priority.
They are hopeful he will return, and I think he
probably will because even though he's an unrestricted free agent,
he looked really good in the playoffs. Look, he's in
his thirties and the average about thirteen minutes per game
during the regular season, and I don't think he even
(36:36):
played in sixty games, So I think it's a stretch
to think that some team's going to offer him big
money and more importantly, a big role to where he's
playing thirty plus minutes per game as the starting center
over a two games. I think a timeshare arrangement makes
all the sense in the world for Steven to prolong
his career and to get the best version out of him.
(36:58):
So I'm hopeful that he'll stay in a similar role.
The Rockets have the bird rights. I haven't been given,
as with e May and those negotiations, any reason to
think the Rockets are going to cheap out, so I'm
still optimistic that he stays. With that said, all it
takes is one team, and he's an unrestricted free agent.
He can choose to leave if for one reason or another,
maybe he just wants to play somewhere else, maybe some
(37:20):
other team is willing to offer a ton either in money,
role or both. All it takes is one team, and
if Steven has an unrestricted free agent chooses to leave,
then yeah, you do need to have other plans and
you shouldn't look at this emotionally. Even if Brook Lopez
turned down this organization at the last hour a couple
of years ago. Look, he's still a very good big
(37:43):
man with a ton of size, can shoot threes at
a very high level, provides a similar physical presence to
Steven Adams different types of player. Steven's a way better rebounder,
but Brooke is a little bit better of a rem
protector and way better as an outside shooter. But in
terms of the double bit, yeah, yeah, I don't see
any reason to think that if Steven Adams and Shingoon
(38:04):
can play together, that Brooke and Shin Gooon wouldn't be
able to play together. So if the market with Brooke
being thirty seven and Stephen thirty one, has it to
where Steven is priced out of the Rocket's ability to retain,
but Brooke is more able and willing to sign and
accept the role that's available here in Houston as the
(38:27):
backup behind all para in Shinoon. It'd be foolish to
rule it out because he can provide you a lot
of the same skills. But perhaps in this world where
Steven has just exceeded your ability to retain him in
that role, if Brook, for one reason or another, is
the easier business fit, I don't see why you wouldn't
(38:48):
consider it. He's still a very good player. Look at
the advanced metrics. He'd be more short term in nature.
And that's why I hope the Rockets retain Steven Adams.
I think they probably will. Again, my personal gut feel
is that there's not going to be a team that's
willing to invest heavily, be it money or roll on
Steven Adams, given how limited his minutes were in the
regular season and now in his second decade in the NBA,
(39:12):
coming off a major knee surgery a couple of years ago.
But if that one team strikes and Stephen doesn't stay
and brooklope As is a guy who we know the
Rockets like, and physically you can do a lot of
the same things provide a similar presence to Steven Adams,
and especially in a world where if you trade for
a KDE or Giannis and you want to win in
(39:33):
the short term. Yeah, the Rockets can go for someone
with more youth than upside that. You know they have
Fally Dante on a two way deal something like that.
But if you're bringing in you know, you were with
the two seed in the West last year fifty two
and thirty, and you're making other big moves to emphasize
the short term, and there's gonna be some emphasis on
next year no matter what, because you're coming out a
(39:53):
year where you finished with the second best record in
the West. Brooklopez can be a good short term bridge
and you shouldn't let your feelings, true emotions play any
role when it comes to evaluating it strictly from a
basketball perspective and what gives you the best chance to
win games next year. I know it would be awkward.
I know we love to hate brook Lopez as a
(40:15):
fan base, But if Steven is priced out or rolled out,
I guess you would call it then brook Lopez makes
all the sense in the role if he's available and
he will be a free agent and he's more amenable
price wise or in terms of the role, role wise
to accept what's available here in Houston. It makes sense.
(40:36):
It wouldn't be fun again. My preference is for Steven
to be back. My prediction is that he will be.
But even if it's you know, awkward to read, Yeah,
brook Lopez makes sense as a backup plan. I don't
think you should be down on that at all. Anyway,
that'll do it for today's Romer Pod. Just wanted to
give some reaction to the news of the day when
it comes to email Kdi and Brooklopez. Hopefully this, you know,
(40:58):
appeels back to the curtain a little bit as far
as what the Rockets are thinking over on the west
Loop at their aforementioned practice facility where they're having meetings
all the time and running through all these scenarios. When
it comes to external trades, free agency, the draft later
this month, lots going on. It's a busy month across
the Association, especially here in Houston where the window for
title contention is very close to actually opening. Anyway, that'll
(41:21):
do it for today. But if you want more content
between now and our next episode, the best place to
get it is on social media. You can follow me
on Blue Sky at Bendubo's and on Twitter. We've got
pages for both. This show the lagger line and the
Rockets Wire the blog at USA today Sports Media Group,
where I'm the editor. You can also hit up Rocketsbar
dot USA today dot com and read all the daily
(41:41):
news coverage there and this show the logger line. If
you go to that Twitter page, then you can have
the link tree and that's got links to friends, partner
sponsors of the program, USA Today's Rockets Wire, card Back
Brewing Sports Talk sep In ninety Please hit up their content,
tell them that we sent you by. And also you
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subscribe if positive review, if you're not already, please do.
(42:03):
That's how we can look good to those aforementioned friends, sponsors,
partners of the program and keep the show running as
one of the most active podcasts covering Houston Rockets basketball.
All right, that will do it for this Wednesday, June fourth.
Enjoy the rest of your day and we'll talk again soon.
Go Rockets.
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