Stock up, stock down, hold: Evaluating Rockets in 2025 playoffs

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Seven ninety The Logger Line.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
It's proudly served to you by car Box Clutch City Logger.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
It is good o Red Nation.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready. The Logger Line starts now.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Benjubos Here, Powo Alves there, Welcome into another
podcast episode of The Logger Line. It's now Thursday, May eighth,
or four days removed from the end of the twenty
twenty five Houston Rockets playoff run. I had a mini

(00:51):
episode in the hours after Game seven, offering some immediate
reactionary takes to that brutal home Game seven loss in
the first round to the hated Golden State Warriors. Now,
as promised a few days later, I've got Powoll with
me and we're gonna do some bigger picture, deep dive
analysis on what we really learned from that playoff series,

(01:13):
along with something of a preview for the upcoming off season.
We won't get to everything today. We're gonna have an
episode early next week after the draft lottery on Monday night.
We'll see if the Rockets get lucky and defy the
odds yet again and moving up into the top four.
They have about a seventeen and a half percent chance
of doing so with that pick from the Phoenix Suns,

(01:33):
which enters at ninth in the odds order. So we'll
see how things go on Monday, and when we have
our post lottery show reacting to that will also tie
in some additional offseason themes. Then today we're going to
be largely focusing on the Warrior series, and I'll start
with what I think is so frustrating and so fitting

(01:58):
how hashtagon sports is it that one game after Game seven,
Steph Curry blows out his handstring and is out for
at least a week to ten days, probably more than
that if you dig into the history of hamsterring recoveries.
How incredibly fitting is it pallow that one game too late,

(02:19):
that's when Steph Curry's hamstring blows and it's some other
team that's probably reaping the rewards of Aman Thompson and
Dylan Brooks, forcing Steph Curry to work so hard over
those seven.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
Games normally that I think I read somewhere that it's
his first like muscle strained type injury, right. I think
he's had ankle problems obviously earlier in his career, but
I read somewhere it's his first like this type of injury,
like muscle muscle tissue type, so they're not sure how
he will recover from it. So though they're having more

(02:50):
trouble getting a timeline on. But I don't know what
you said about the Houston sports saying, Listen, I in
my in my quest delive a happier, less stock life.
I try to think about those types of things the
least that I possibly can. Is it unfortunate? Yeah? Is
it one hundred percent related to having played such a
physical series beforehand? One hundred percent. That being said, once,

(03:15):
and I'm like this with all my sports teams, which
there are a lot of. Once we are knocked out,
I tune out of basically everything, basically everything that goes
on from that competition from that moment forward. Obviously here,
I still love basketball, but I'm mostly watching mister to
come from straight Now. That's how that's how I deal

(03:36):
with the trauma. That being said, I can't lie that,
even though this sounds a little bit counterintuitive, I'd rather
the Warriors win that series and I'd rather the Lawyers
go as far as they can because of what that
says about us, especially if they dominate the Wolves.

Speaker 2 (03:54):
I know there are people inside the building at TUTI
Center that are having a tough time watching this series
because they saw how much Minnesota struggled in Game one
against Golden State's zone, and they're thinking of how the
Timberwolves would have likely performed against the double big zone
led by Steven Adams an all per inchin Goon. The
Rockets really like that matchup and the potential of getting

(04:15):
to the Western Conference Finals had they had just won
one more game against the Warriors. And so to see
it go down like this, where you thought there was
a clear weakness from Minnesota, it's playing out that way
even after the Warriors lost Steph Curry, by the way,
Brian Windhworfs had the stat in that Game seven against

(04:35):
the Rockets, Steph Curry ran one point nine to nine miles.
That's the most he's ever run in the game in
his NBA career. So the Rockets really did put him
through the ringer. And now it's the Timberwolves that theoretically
should reap the rewards, but to this point they have
not because they couldn't score on the on the Warriors,
and so along the same lines as what you were saying, Polo,

(04:56):
and curious your perspective on if this continues. And again
we're just one game into that series, and we'll see
how Golden State holds up, especially offensively without Steph Curry.
They're gonna have to ask tom Me Butler to do more.
But if hypothetically this level of defense sustains itself, because
I think we can both agree Steph Curry is not
fundamental to what they're doing defensively. If they suffocate the Warriors,

(05:20):
if Anthony Edwards, or if they suffocate the Timberwolves, if
Anthony Edwards never gets going, does it maybe make you
feel a little bit differently about how that first round
series went? Or are you just mad no matter what
because the Rockets had their chances and couldn't get it done.

Speaker 3 (05:36):
I'd have to say, like I'd have to kind of
see and actually go and watch the games and see
how Anthony Edits is going to shut down? Is he
struggling with bulbrik like I'm pulled with disclosion? I have
not what's the game one? Is he struggling because of
Bulbrek here, because that's what god Killin's struggling. Killen could
not get past the first one of the defense or

(05:57):
a couple of plays here, and that way he'd get
to the room and he'd get well. But you know,
we're jailing. It about getting or at least for the series,
was about getting through that first a level of one
ball pressure, and then it was about like there's no
in between games. The best thing for Jylen's career now,
I've been saying this for a while, would be getting
a photo game going, because I don't know. I don't

(06:18):
know what it is. I don't know if it's like
a strength I don't know if he doesn't. I think
it's a combination certain things. But obviously lack of strength,
it's obviously his positioning, him trying to finish around guys,
him not trying to bump shot walkers off of their spot.
See him like, speed's not gonna get you through your
NBA career, Like here really fast. Everybody's really athletic here,
and so a photo game will probably sell so a

(06:41):
lot of that, but without getting too much into it,
it would make me feel a little better. But at
the same time, I guarantee you that if I go
and what the rest of the series, that and is
going to at the very least be able to get
shots up. And that's something that for the regular season
defended killing for because I was like, yeah, he's not

(07:02):
really making shots at that bit of a rate, but
depending on the part of the seasons that you're talking about,
but he's our only guy on the primitive that can
generate the even if it's a step back three, he
can generate a shot. It felt like in this Warrior
series he couldn't even do that if we like there
were times where and as you am through, you guys
can remember during the regular season, last possession of the

(07:22):
first half, they don't get to the ball because he's
the only guy we can guarantee gets a shot. We
weren't able to do that against the Warriors, and the
couple of times that we did, one of them he
got blocked and it it was just all over the place.
And so the Warriors don't have these amazing on ball
guy on ball defense guys that other teams they have
good on ball defense, but other teams have guys that

(07:44):
that are the saying that I've got that have guarded killer.
So yeah, from from my perspective, it would make me
feel a little bit better, but it more than like
we would not sway me on the overarching theme of
what of what killing has been disposed to?

Speaker 2 (07:59):
Yeah, if category, and that leads into our primary discussion
for today's pod, which is going to be stock up,
stock down, and let's call it hold stock neutral guys
who didn't move the needle either way in your assessment
of them long term based on how they played in
the playoffs against the Warriors. I'm going to go through

(08:21):
all eight rotation players, the five starters, plus Steven Adams,
Tari Eason, Jamari Smith Junior off the bench, and Imo
Udoka as head coach. We're not going to do it
all at once because we want to let this breathe
have a little bit of back and forth. And I'm
going to start our discussion with the guy that Paolo
has been talking about the last few minutes, which is
Jalen Green, because I think he's the player who everyone

(08:44):
both of us and anyone listening to this SPoD if
you don't have him as stock down at least a
little bit, you have to be kidding yourself. You're not
being serious, and I'm not out on Jalen Green. I'm
not selling all my stock, but it is fair to
see that this was a disappointing series, especially because once
they took away Plan A for him, that initial ball pressure,

(09:08):
as you said, there was no Plan B. There were
no counters, and so that's what makes it really really frustrating.
And he's not done developing. He's twenty three years old.
He'll still be twenty three when the season starts in
the fall, So no, he's not a finished product. It's
going to be a very important off season for him.
But what's frustrating is that the inconsistency that even since

(09:29):
in the second half of last season he started being
on an upward trajectory, it hasn't necessarily been sustained those peaks,
because it feels like at some point other teams commit
a few more resources to him and then it goes
back down. And this was just more of the same.
I'll start my analysis. Let's look at the stats. He
was the leading scorer for the season twenty one game,

(09:51):
fifty four and a half percent true shooting. The playoffs,
he was your fourth leading scorer thirteen point three points,
forty eight percent true shooting below forty percent from the
fe thirty percent from three, seventy percent on free throws,
just ugly across the board. Now you can point out
he was actually the third highest rated Rockets player when
you look at on and off court data net ratings,

(10:14):
Jalen was actually plus five point six. But and I'm
sure we'll touch on a few times things that were
said by Rafelsernime Joka at the end of season press conference.
You can't argue that the lineup data is flawed in
the regular season, which a lot of it suggests that
the Rockets were better without Jalen Green. I think there

(10:34):
are some mitigating circumstances there. But you can't then turn
around and point to the net rating in the playoffs
and say, well, we're gonna give him a blank check
and ignore these numbers because he was the third highest
rated Rocket. No, that's not how it works. If we're
going to note context in the regular season and say
there's some insinuating circumstances, then there's probably some insinuating circumstances

(10:54):
to those on court, off court differentials and net ratings
in the playoffs as well. I think by and large,
you have to look at the numbers, just trust what
your eyes tell you. And he was not good in
this series. And another argument I want to deconstruct off
the top, some will undoubtedly say, didn't the Warriors commit

(11:15):
to taking him out of this series? Doesn't that show
you what they think of him? Not necessarily. I don't
think the Rockets or the Warriors tried to take Jalen
Green out of this series, as Raymond Green put it,
because they viewed him as the Rockets' best player. I
think they did that because he might be the most

(11:37):
indispensable in the standpoint of there's no one else that
can do what he does when he's at his best,
and so if you take away that gear that upside,
there's not someone you can slide into that role. And
bottom line, they're probably not going to score enough in
the half court to win four times out of seven.
So no, because the Warriors committed those resources to him,

(11:59):
that doesn't mean they're viewing him as a star or
as the best player in the Rockets.

Speaker 3 (12:03):
No.

Speaker 2 (12:03):
What it means is that they don't think the Rockets
have a pathway to win the series if Jalen doesn't
get going, And so that's why they played it that way.
It's not necessarily a huge endorsement of how good Jalen
is overall. It's more an issue of roster construction and
that Houston just doesn't have many alternatives, if any, that

(12:26):
Emi Udoka can reasonably turn to. I think at this
point the campb Wit worship, at least for this season,
has largely sailed. So when we talk about all these
qualifiers of roster construction, and yeah, you know, maybe there's
less ball pressure if there's someone else among those other
four that can do more from a shot creation or

(12:47):
shooting standpoint, maybe, But if if we're constantly adding these
ifs when it comes to, you know, the lineups around him,
how teams choose to defend him that's not a star
player or anything close. If it's as easy to take
a quote unquote leading scorer out of the game as

(13:08):
what the Warriors did to Jalen Green, it would happen
all the time. If all he had to do was
add a little bit of ball pressure and hedge from
time to time, and you could take a twenty something
points per game scorer and drop them to thirteen a
game on terrible efficiency. This would happen all the time
in the playoffs, where teams are dialing up players specific
game plans all over the league. It doesn't happen that way.

(13:30):
And Polo, I think it gets into exactly what you said,
which is that there aren't enough counters with Jalen. It's
he's gotten better at a few skills. You know, the
three point shooting. Starting Thanksgiving Eve, the final sixty three
games of this season. People talk about how he had
a career high clip from three this year, but since
Thanksgiving Eve, the final sixty three games, shooting over eight

(13:51):
threes per game high volume, he was above thirty seven percent.
That's pretty damn good. He's worked at the threes. He's
gotten better defensively, So this is not someone that isn't trying.
He's made clear strides. He has gotten better. He's coachable.
There's a reason why the Rockets stand by him. But
that's also why I struggle to sort of You know,

(14:12):
some people, when you bring up the mid range game
or the floaters will say, oh, he grades out terribly
in these areas by the percentages, Well, it's so small,
he so rarely does it. What I'm curious about is
can he get better if he actually tries, because you
can't convince me that if he's shooting thirty seven percent
on threes at high volume, high difficulty step backs, that
this guy doesn't have the touch to convert from the

(14:34):
mid range or develop a floater the way James Harden did.
Speaking of James Harden, I said this on the post
Game seven pod, it feels like in a lot of ways,
watching Jalen Green in that series was like watching a
poor man's version of James Harden, and that it was
very predictable, and yet unlike James, there weren't the additional
gears when it comes to playmaking. Jalen isn't as strong

(14:54):
or crafty when it comes to finishing near the rim.
It just felt like in that series, you know, he
would take a couple of threes early and if those
didn't fall, he'd be hell bent on getting to the
rim at all costs, and he's typically not strong enough
to finish their contact. He's less likely to get fouls
called in the playoffs. Also, on the very occasions he did,

(15:15):
he made free throws less, and veterans like Draymond and
Kevon Looney are much more focused in the playoffs at
being disciplined going vertical, he's not strong enough Jalen that
is to absorb a little bit of contact. So many
times you have five on fours because he goes down
and next thing you know, he gets tentative because he
knows the net effect. He knows it's another bad game,

(15:36):
and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Whereas they're really
good players, and let's look at his position, look at
Devin Booker, look at Donovan Mitchell. They can score at
almost any spot on the court inside of twenty five
feet with Jalen it's not that it's very predictable. And
so with a very predictable Jalen Green, who's only going
to fire from a couple of areas, Especially when he's

(15:57):
used in a lineup that has at least two non
spacers with all forrinching Goon and to Men Thompson sometimes
three for going double big and Steven Adams is out
there as well, it does not take much at all
for your offense to bog down. And so again it's
not that you should be out on Jalen Green. There
is still time he can learn from this, just as
he's made strides defensively and from three point range. I

(16:18):
really think if he works on it, he can develop
some of these counters. But at some point he's got
to put up or shut up because the line between
with his player archetype a little undersized for his position.
He's not really a big time playmaker. He's a better defender,
but he's certainly not an elite one. I know Sjalen
and some of his fans bristle at the notion of

(16:41):
him being a sixth man. But the reason that chritism
gets put out there is because the line is very
thin with a player of his archetype between being the
tip of the spear, a one scorer that you need,
a Donovan Mitchell type, and someone who's probably best suited
to be a six man because he just doesn't provide

(17:01):
enough value in other areas to offset the limitations he
has as a good but not great scorer. And you
know that's one of many reasons the worst, you know,
I do support keeping Jalen Green on this roster unless
there's a clear upgrade for a star that you believe
fits the timeline. If nothing else, I think Jalen Green
would be a very good six man. I think if

(17:22):
you simplified his role, made it consistent in terms of
who and how he attacks, using his energy and burst
against second units or guys on the first teams that
are a little bit worn down. I think, worst case,
in a couple of years, he'd be great in that role. No,
I'm not saying he's necessarily going to be that. There's
still a path where he can be a ton better,
but the leash is not unlimited anymore. This is the

(17:45):
end of year four, We're going into year five. He's
going to turn twenty four during the next season. At
some point he's got to develop counters. If his role
needs to be this simple, and if there are all
these qualifiers, those are the guys that end up being
six man types because it's much easier to keep them
in that simplified structure and give them the advantages they need.

(18:10):
If you're a starter growing up against the best of
the best, and you're not providing a ton of value
in other areas, and again that's not Jalen's fault, that's
just his player archetype. You've got to be really good
as a scorer, and that means being able to do
it in more ways than he currently can't. I'm not
out on him, because again, just as we've seen growth

(18:30):
defensively and on threes the last couple of years, I
don't see any reason why if he puts his head
down and works, that he can't develop more of a
mid range game, a flower game. I can't tell you
that it's for sure going to work. But again I'm
also just saying I wouldn't say that it can't, and
so with that in mind, I wouldn't move him just
to move him. But we do after this series sort

(18:53):
of have to acknowledge the elephant in the room, which
is that there are still clear deficiencies, And honestly, I
don't think there's anything necessarily new from the playoffs. I
think we saw this in the regular season as well.
It felt like anytime he had sustained stretch of hot play,
he would come back to earth, and I think it's
a lot of the same dynamic. People would realize just
how electric the rockets can be when Jalen is allowed
to be that version, especially in the context of this

(19:16):
particular roster, so they'd commit a few more resources and
next thing you know, he turns back into this version.
By the way, we're keeping all of our analysis to
the playoffs, because we've got five months without Houston Rockets basketball,
so there are other things we can talk about with
Jalen and other players, but trying to focus primarily on
the Warriors series here because that's what we just watched

(19:37):
the last couple of weeks. As far as the season
as a whole, we've got five months of non Rockets basketball, unfortunately,
in which we can do deeper dives and look further back.
I just think as far as to bring my rant
to a close, they're just simply were not any counters.
It was very predictable against the Warriors. And if you
are a shooting guard that doesn't provide much value based

(19:58):
on your player archetype, your size and whatnot, it's tough
to see a long term world If this is the
peak version of Jalen Green, where he can be a
starter on a championship level team. That's not me saying
again that this is definitively the peak Jalen Green. There's

(20:19):
still time. I do think there are areas where he
can clearly improve, but this is the end of year four.
This is not the end of your two year three
where we just sort of give a blank check and say, yeah,
he's gonna work the off season and get better. I
hope he does. But there are players who start to
stagnate around this point entering their mid twenties. I hope
that's not the case with Jalen. I know he has
a good middle makeup. I know he works hard, so

(20:40):
I'm keeping hope alive. But it would be foolish not
to look at this series and say stock down. It's
not the end of the road. You don't have to
be all the way out on him, but it would
be silly to rule anything other than stock down.

Speaker 3 (20:59):
Right, So I have a working hypothesis here, and this
is like overall kill and talk. It's it's obviously stock
down for me. It's so much stuff like to me,
one thing to see how he performs in the playoffs
was a big reason why I was so willing to

(21:21):
go through the ups and downs in the regular season.

Speaker 2 (21:23):
He was.

Speaker 3 (21:23):
He definitely had a better regular season. I'm talking about that,
But why I try. I tried to stay off of
the hot sakes when he wasn't doing well, and it's
because he just felt like the type of guy that
in the postseason you don't have any other perimeter creators.
This guy can really shine, right. I mean, if he
has another year in the postseason, if he has that

(21:44):
mentality that all of these shooting guards have. I mean
it's not just Hoobe you can go and Edwards has that,
Donovan Mentell has that, Devin Booker has that. These are
all guys that in the playoffs they are shooting guards right,
and in the playoffs the game's fall down. This is
your time to shine, right. Don't get a bucket, even
if if you don't have to be as a picient
as you are in there as you need be in

(22:05):
the regulars, even game flows down, everywhere's eficience drops. But
these guys get it there right. It's it was just
a complete opposite. He was all right being taken out
of games, and I know some of that comes from
the coaching staff, but he didn't try to fight through it,
even though even in times where it was very apparent

(22:26):
that we needed him to fight through it. And then
when it comes to Gillan, just in general, I don't
think replacing him with BSV and a lot of people
think it is just because Emay is not has shown
like we have better offensive options or of guys that
are close enough as offensive option that you that they
will deserve a shout in the rotation. In the playoffs,

(22:49):
that didn't even get it. And I think that's because
Ema is just not willing to compromise at all on defense.
And yes, Stillen had some times when he fell asleep,
gave up offensive rebounds, gave up cutters, you know, mental lapses,
but when but the Rockets are still really good defensively
in the playoffs, and Joan was a part of that, right.
He had the whole pressure on Curry. He chased them around,

(23:11):
he was fighting through screens, he was doing all that
he was, he was subtling. He had those mental break times,
but I don't think that was lack of desire or
anything like that. And so whoever you bring into Jalen's
role has to be able to at least match that
defensively on a game to game basis. And I think
that's something that you can take away from Jillian is
that he works hard, right, And so obviously Devin Booker

(23:36):
can get to that level, Donovan Mitchell can get to
that level. But I really like the guy I callin Sexton, right,
if you go get a callin Sexton I'm not sure
he's gonna meet the standard for him to even play him.
That's why it's kind of hard, because yes, I do
think that he's by far is his position to upgrade

(23:56):
at this point. But it's hard to find an attainable
solution other than the tick the top guys, because guys
that are a little bit below him they have to
eat or there are better scorers. I mean they are
a little bit above him that are better scorers. They
have to bring them involved. And that's before he makes
it even consider them. And obviously it has to be
a big delta for the Rockets to be willing to

(24:17):
part with Kalm, to part with a guy that drafted
number two, it has to be a big enough delta,
and that delta with most of these guys is kind
of reduced by that fact. It's actually kind of wild
that what's kind of what's in my mind might save
Jalen is his worth ethic and perhaps his efforts on

(24:37):
defense at this point, just just because of how kind
of rare that is amongst shooting guards. Now, I'm not
defending Jailum and I think you have a terrible postseason.
I think it's it's what you said, it's about having encounters,
and it's about like, this guy has all the talent
in the world. This guy has all the athleticism in
the world. Like he is both bouncy and quick, and

(25:00):
he's an a little comment better. I don't think it's
kind of hurting him anymore. And it's it gets to
the point where it's just about cameras and knowing what
to do and manipulating defenses, and he's terrible at it.
And it's that goes into a bit of a larger
point that I'm going to try to make quick because
it's kind of not the pot to do it. But

(25:21):
that generation of players that both caught the aau like
file upbringing, I guess and at the same time went
through COVID. There's a general and and and it took
a lot of work for me to kind of grind
down an argument about this. You look at his draft

(25:43):
class and a lot of guys have the exact same issues,
but either have smaller roles and they're not exposed.

Speaker 2 (25:51):
Issues.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
Yeah, that's what I mean. You go you look through
the draft class. Obviously Kid is insane, right, Not Kaid's
just on one off. He was always a generation well not. Yeah,
probably the original prospect.

Speaker 2 (26:02):
For since the senior year of high school. Yeah, he
broke into that elite here. Yeah, and certainly it is
when you're at Oklahoma State. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (26:09):
So well, what I mean is there's there's clear development
gaps in all of these guys. All these guys lack
that middle in between, like literally skill game, like that
manipulated defender, that the little nuances that guys get as
they have more and more time playing against competition that

(26:30):
they aren't just clearly superior athletically at games. For example,
Jalen obviously has it. That's who we're talking about. Evan
Mobley doesn't have that role with the gaps and so
has been able to not expose them, slowly work on
that game, and nowadays he is I think the reliable
offensive player in the role that he has, and he

(26:51):
has that middle game. Got skilled uh Yoka chill themselves,
the exact same thing guys picked top four. He cannot
finish at the rim. He's he doesn't really have like
that graftiness. I think craftiness is the perfect word for this.

Speaker 2 (27:06):
It is, although in Jalen's case it's also a little
bit of strength. Maybe he can work on that as well,
but I do think it's a little bit more craft
at this point. Yeah, Comana, he has boomed up some
like he can't get stronger, but he's not as he's
not as light as he was when he was like
a rookie or second year guy. He has put some
priority on the weight room already, which is what makes

(27:28):
me think that while certainly you can get a little
bit stronger, most of it is just craft.

Speaker 3 (27:33):
Yeah. And then craft is a combination of things. Obviously,
it's your counters, it's your foodworking type spaces, it's deceleration,
it's your touch. Shots that are just I guess the
good word for this is shots that are off schedule, right,
that are that's your improvising on Like Dylan just he
has the touch, but it always feels like such a

(27:57):
last resort that he's not doing it in any type
of rhythm, and so it kills it all. Obviously, Bookwrin
was a shooting gut completely fell off the map. It
was never good enough, primo the same thing. A Moody
has been in a smaller role and has slowly developed
a little bit of that game. And we saw at
times when he was playing for the Warriors that he
had some takeover moments that weren't just shooting a layers,

(28:19):
but he was able to bring that up slowly. Trey
Murphy was able to bring that up slowly, but he's
both an older prospect and he came in to the league.
Is just a catch and shoot guy, and a lot
of his efficiency even this year that he broke out
in that efficiency comes from just being an insane level
shooter that even if you bring his percentages down a

(28:41):
little bit from three by taking the first shots, it
still works. But then you look at other guy's key on.
Johnson never broke through, just Christopher never broke through a question.
Grimes is very much a three and D type guy.
He's just really good at it and he has that
midwin game, but he's very stiff I pull it up.
Not a lot of craft to him. Kem Thomas is

(29:01):
obviously the exception here, but Bones Island, Jaden Springer, like
all of these guys, even Miles look right to a
Western extent, even though sooner the same thing, like all
of these guys feel like they lack that component. And
I think that's tied to what the COVID years did

(29:22):
to the college game and all of the development that
guys were not able to get. I think that really
hurt a bit of a generation of players.

Speaker 2 (29:31):
And you will, yeah, go ahead, good. I was just
gonna say the silver lining to put on it, maybe
with these particular players and this dynamic you're describing, maybe
this makes them an exception to the usual rule and
that there's still a little bit more upward mobility when
they're twenty four or twenty five because their development was

(29:51):
a little bit stunned relative to most guys when they're
twenty and twenty one.

Speaker 3 (29:55):
Yeah, I do think that that could be the case.
Whether whether or not the rocket are in a position
to give him that that along is a different question,
all right. But then when you pick it back up,
you know later on Ivy is someone who had who
has a flutter game, but also coming out of the
data I don't if you remember about his draft profile,
but someone that was very limited at certain things like

(30:18):
the jump passing. I don't know if you remember. It
was a big thing with it, like he just didn't
have a plan, but he didn't have that draft that pace,
I guess, and he would go up without a plan
a lot. And but then as you move on like
Caston Wallace is a little bit more of a of
a touch. I just talking about two years ago draft,
you know, it's a lot less of the case like

(30:40):
George the same thing. I'm trying to bring it to
get names out, Brendan and Batzimski, the same thing, like
do you start getting Marcus Laser Obviously the same thing
you start getting again guys that have that draft to gain.
And I think that that's that's tied to obviously the
COVID years and what that took away from development of guys.
This is something was talked about at the time that

(31:02):
never got picked up again. And here's how that ties
up with Jail.

Speaker 2 (31:05):
And that's why.

Speaker 3 (31:07):
It's so hard to identify why stuff goes wrong, because
that type of craftiness only shows itself in certain scenarios, right,
And he's so athletic and he's so talented that he
can make up for it sometimes, and it's why we
try to find patterns with him, and it's just impossible,

(31:27):
and it often comes off as excuses. And I have
a tweet about this when I was just venting post game,
which I said, I'm just tired of making excuses for him. Like,
you've heard these arguments at certain point in Kevin's career.
Oh he's better at home. Oh he's better on the road.
Oh he's better against chuck walking biggs. Oh he's better

(31:48):
against no. Oh he can score over shot walking bigs.
Oh he can score over sweet over sweet little biggs
because they keep up with him and he can't just
bow bite them. Oh. He he's only good when the
when the shots falling. Oh he's only good when he's
finishing at the rim. Oh he like you you can.
Oh he's only good when he when he gets a

(32:09):
good Like he's only good when Steven Adams is screening
for him. Oh, he's only good in the in the
when it's two man game with spread pick and roll
with Apron jingun Like. We've tried a hundred different hypotheses
of why in which situation Stale Green is good, and
at a certain point it just gets tiring as a

(32:29):
fan and as an analyst, and and it's like, well,
maybe he's just not good, right, And I think that
at this point that will be a valid position, and
that is a valid position for people to have. But
I also think that there's got to be a little
bit of space for the argument that I just made
about his upbringing, not upbringing, but his basketball upbringing and

(32:52):
how COVID affected effected all of it doesn't mean that Rockets,
you know, hits their wagon to forever.

Speaker 2 (32:59):
Uh, But.

Speaker 3 (33:02):
I'm just I'm kind of stretching it a bit and
man grasping its straws, I guess, trying to find a
reason and the other only other thing that I can
imagine that kind of makes it even harder for him
to have that type of craft. And this is gonna
sound ridiculous, but I swear it's a pattern. Dude has
tiny hands, and sometimes it's just as simple as that.

(33:22):
It's so much harder, Like if you've played basketball, it
is so much harder to have that type of craft
and to play on place and to have good handles,
and even even on shooting, the way you grip the
ball really hurts if your hands are small and you
can't like palmet or you can't like when you look

(33:42):
at obviously shooting guards, the shooting guards of all time,
I guess guys that mostly relied on athleticism and jumping
over it.

Speaker 2 (33:51):
Like Jordan could.

Speaker 3 (33:52):
Pound the ball, Kobe could pound the ball like when
you when you look at these guys that they had,
they had the art let us sim and he obviously
had the craft, right. But I think there's there's two
There's two art types of shooting guys. There's the athletic
guys that can that that can that have the shooting,
the trade aways, all of that, and there's the smaller

(34:13):
guys that are not as athletic that row I on
Floters a lot more, and I think you can. I
think if you've bopped enough basketball and you were familiar
with enough pledge, you can kind of make that discision.
And I think Deven falls on the more Goby Jordan
type guys that are really athletic, but at the same

(34:33):
and so you're saying he's still Jordan Kobe, that's what
you're talking about. That's not what I'm saying. I say,
he he if he if he projected, yeah, but I'm
for the others. If he projected to hit that that
that type of game, I guess he wouldn't need these
skills shots because those guys didn't really clearly those types

(34:54):
of skills skill shots that could make them occasionally, but
it was mostly a shoot over you type of thing.
And when they had to finish at the rim or
around the room. A lot of it is just the
ability to grab the ball and you know, have control
over it when you go up with it. Like if
Jillen has to go up with one hand, he's either
like pinning the ball against his like forearm. I think

(35:18):
if forearms the correct thing, he's either doing that and
sometimes he loses it or he needs two hands and
that's why he struggles to finish. To finish the contact
a lot as well. And if you've ever shot a
basketball from free in your life, you know that your
shooting forums you can form the ball or if you
can like hold the like hold the ball in place
with one hand, gives you a lot more flexibility on

(35:40):
your shooting. And I think I think, I think I
think it was Basketball break Down. The guy on Twitter
that I used to make the clips about gams hard
than traveling. He had a point about this as well
that applies to Fred who also has tiny hands. Shooting
consistency is a lot of the times tied to from
three is a lot of I'm tied to hen size

(36:02):
and so it's just a lot of that. There's a
lot of thought that I had on jail and some
of them to make to kind of try to make
sense of this, because even if I advocate for jail
and trade and it depends on the opportunity, I have
to understand why it went wrong. And I've been exhaustive
about that for really one time. This is an answer

(36:23):
that I have never had before. And this that's what
I stand at this point. Doesn't mean that I'm back
continuing with kill and as the only option or even
as the primary option. Still needs to make up my
mind on what scenarios I'm okay with, but I really
needed to talk about those two things because maybe I'm
finally onto something because I've had three hundred theories over

(36:46):
the last four years, and so I actually think that
that makes sense and I had yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2 (36:58):
And to close the loop on the Jalen discussion, I
think we're in alignment on not moving him unless it's,
you know, part of just a slam dunk deal. That's
transformative because even if you could make a statistical based
case for as you said, a Colin Sexton type of
player who, if you strictly look at the data, could

(37:19):
be better on certain nights, certain matchups, there's at least
upside with Jalen Green with his age continuity means something
for this roster. The fact that ima Udoka trust him defensively,
trust his attitude, the fact that, as I said earlier,
I think, worst case a year or two, there's no
reason to think he wouldn't be a good six man.

(37:40):
I think if you greatly simplified his role and structured
his matchups a bit more to his liking, then there's
definitely something there. With the explosion, the elite athleticism that
he has. The worst thing you could do would be
to trade him. Just to trade him and you bring
in someone who may not well wouldn't move the needle
all that much for eBay Udoka. And because he's older,

(38:04):
he's you know, taking up more of your salary cap well.
I know Jalen's salary is getting more expensive, but at
least other teams might view him as a change of
scenery guy who clearly is young and has a lot
of talent. You bring in a Colin Sexton type, it
limits your future optionality as well. So for a number
of reasons. Even if you can make an argument looking

(38:25):
strictly at the data and say that a certain player
might be a slight upgrade, at least statistically on Jalen,
I don't think it's worth it when you consider the
broader context of this team. I think the smart play
is just to give him at least one more year
to try and make some of these improvements, and if
for some reason he doesn't, then you know, even if

(38:46):
it's not looking great, then he's going to be much
more tradeable when that contract is closer to its expiration.
There's no reason to trade him now unless you know
someone is really trading for him at you know, close
to peak value, and I doubt that's going to be
the case swimming off this series, So even if it's
unpleasant to hear, I think, you know stock down after

(39:06):
the series. But for the Rockets, it's hold one other guy,
the only other guy I had in my stock down category,
and will go much more quickly because I don't want
this plot to run much more than an hour. The
only other stock down guy I had, and howlo, you
might recoil it. This was your boy, Tari Eason. I
still like him overall. But even though I did say

(39:31):
with the net ratings Jalen at plus five point six,
I said small sample mitigating circumstances, you can't put a
ton into that. The reason I am putting something into
Tari being minus eight point one against the Warriors by
far the worst of the eight rotation players, is that
it meshes exactly with what I was told before the series,

(39:52):
during the series, and after the series, which is that
it's not a favorable matchup for him. They worried about
his propensity to gamble against a very disciplined Warriors team
that if you're not disciplined in your assignments, if you're
trying to shoot a gap and make the highlight reel play,

(40:13):
they'll get an open three for staff or Buddy. In
a heartbeat, they did not think this was a good
matchup for Tarry Easton going in, and so when the
data messures with their fears going into the series, there's
probably something to that. And it's not something that you
should panic over because he's just twenty three years old.

(40:33):
Year three, and it sort of feels like you're too
because almost all of last year was lost due to
the injuries, and he had some of that this year.
But for a guy that we've talked so glowingly about
in the past, you know, he has the terror tlens
Moniker with Aman Thompson, well they both have that terror gear.
But the difference is that a men can play in

(40:55):
different ways, whereas with tari it feels like there's one
way that he plays and there's still time and you know,
perhaps his development was a little bit stunted because of
the injuries. That's the hope. But for him to fully
achieve the upside scenarios, because we've talked on this pot
about him potentially being a star level player if everything clicks,

(41:16):
he needs to be able to play in different ways.
And so the same questions that are there with Jalen
when I mentioned if there's all of these qualifiers, if
it takes the right matchup the right players around him,
then how good is he really if it only happens
under a select group of circumstances. The same thing is
true with Tarry Easan if it requires a certain matchup

(41:38):
and playing a certain way to bring out the best version.
And that's not me saying I'm out on Tary Easton.
No matter what, he's a valuable player off the bench,
but when it comes to the high end projections and
you see how poorly he fared relative to the rest
of that rotation against the Warriors and combine it with
the fact that the Rockets themselves were worried about this

(41:59):
very dynam going into the series. It's not nearly as
drastic as Jalen, But I did think it's a little
bit of a disappointing series for Charlie Eason, and I
would like to see him come back in year four
as a more disciplined, well rounded player whose game translates
to more matchups. It's not the end of the world

(42:19):
if it doesn't. Worst case, He's still a very good
role player. But when we talk about these very high
end outcomes, I can't look at this series as anything
other than a stock down He's my last stock down guy. POWLO,
Where did you have him? And do you have any
other stock down guys before we move on?

Speaker 3 (42:38):
So I'm thari I have to push back. I did
not have him as a stockdown guy, and I am
biased towards them. You guys know that, But I do
agree with you in since that this wasn't a good
matchup for him. He does feast on generating turnovers and
the Warriors were just like even though we were able
to generate turnovers, they are as one of the most

(43:00):
disciplined in the repers and I don't really understand why
because whatever, it's just it's their system, that's how it works.
I think that there's it's that, but I'm not sure
I agree with the sense that it's a gambling or
even though I do think that he does that a
little bit. I think that plus one of the concerns

(43:24):
that was with him coming out of the draft. I
don't know if you remember, but one of the reasons
he dropped to seventeen, which is while at that point
I think I think it was seventeen or sixteen sixteen,
it was because there was a rumor going around that
he couldn't understand defensive sets. Do you remember that one?

Speaker 2 (43:41):
Yeah, sort of.

Speaker 3 (43:43):
I'm not saying it's that at all. I'm saying it
is a little bit of him losing focus mad times,
in the same way that for example, Kylen Brown, who
everybody agrees is a good defender, sometimes loses folk because
and if you go back to the Warriors series in
the finals, the Warriors in specific, Jill jillen Bono was

(44:06):
getting exploited left and right. If he was losing track
of guys, he was kind of not engaged one hundred
percent of the time, and it's not a hustle thing.
It's a little bit of a mental and Tory does
gem a little bit, But I think it's that combined
with this other facet of you know, sometimes he just
switches off for a second, or he's seeing something else

(44:29):
other than what is actually happening. And it's not switching
off in the sense of not hustling. It's switching off
in the sense of being out of the scheme that
you were supposed to run or messing up what you're
supposed to do right, not really falling asleep and letting
Gyce cut behind him, although that does happen, and it
happened against the Warriors. I think what I burning those

(44:53):
two are optis what I want to highlight is sometimes
reacting to the offense in a way that you're not
supposed to, even though like it's more of a focused
thing and a mental thing of messing stuff up rather
than the other things. But on the other end, like
I think it's as you said, it was the worst
possible match ever start. I think you would have done

(45:14):
really well against the other any of the other teams,
And I think it's they basically nulla five the entire
Twins dynamics, something that only the Warriors can do. And
I think there was a big advantage of not the
biggest regular season I think would have translated against any
other team. But as far as stock down, there's there's

(45:37):
two guys that I want to mention that they are
not stock down, that's not what I need, but that
they were in danger of being stocked down. First one
is Fairvngle. She was obviously amazing in the games in
those three games, for those those two games and half
of one, but you can also let at the same
time see a little bit of the limited, right, he

(46:01):
can't have that big of a role. He has to
be a supporting piece and he was asked to be
a star piece in these games. But he rebounded obviously
and had a great, I think a great series overall.
The other guy I wanted to say is because you
can't say that you can't lose a series and only
have two stock down guys even and then to me,

(46:23):
the Resan is not a stockdown guy. He's neutral.

Speaker 2 (46:26):
I think it's a seven game series loss against a
good team. That's why I have the majority of the
team and the neutral rather than down but fair. We
can quble over this.

Speaker 3 (46:36):
Yeah, My point was is actually that even though overall
they're not stock down guys, there the times in which
they were stock down guys cost you the game, and
so you lost those games. And when they were stuck
up guys, it didn't necessarily win the game, if that
makes sense. And I'm talking about him in it was

(46:58):
queer to me that first three games of the series.
He was just three or four games in the series,
he was just not himself. He was shook a bit defensively,
he wasn't as influential as influential as he typically is. Obviously,
the Warriors scheme also makes it harder for us to
the ploy in the ways that wet to the poem,

(47:20):
when he's able to help off ball, when he's able
to make plays on other people. Besides, this matchup, if
the Warriors were trying to hang upy single shooter, and
it's tough to let a man room free in a sense,
and that's missing is always so constant that it's tough
for men to be able to play both both players
at the same time. But is to say that his

(47:42):
growth throughout the series, it's being liner always helps makes
it so he was actually a plus for me right,
A trained up I don't remember what the language was accused,
but training up stock and let me push.

Speaker 2 (47:58):
Back ro quick. We can do our little men thing here.
I actually think you're underselling or overstating the bad games.
I think game two was a crazy outlier. It became
very easy to sort of tie it in with game
one in game three because they bookended it. But if
you recall how Game two actually went, he started very well,

(48:19):
had six points in the first couple of minutes, seemed
energetic as all hell. He got into foul trouble on
some truly bizarre calls. Many of those were not his fault,
including the third which took him out for the entire
half when Steven Adams and Draymond Green bumped him into
Jimmy Butler. That was when Jimmy got hurt, and then
a men was shut down for the half. And then
he comes back in the second half and the Rockets

(48:41):
are up twenty points. Jalen is cooking, and you're not
going to go away from the formula that's working. So
I would say game two, I almost throw it out
for a man, and that I think by and large,
he played well in the very limited sample, and then
even by you know, normally you'd say, well, the player
got it foul trouble because he picked up no those
were pretty weird, especially the third one that just completely

(49:04):
transforms his outlook. I would say game one, in game
three he was subpar, that's for sure, but I thought
Game two should have been a lot better. And then
from Game four on where he was very, very good,
and as we saw during the season, the most encouraging
thing with the Men when the game was most meaningful
that game seven he was your best player, just like
we saw at times throughout the year when the lights

(49:27):
were at their brightest, obviously the game in Boston that
tended to be when you had the peak version of
men Thompson. There's something special to be said when a
guy has that type of makeup that he rises to
the occasion when the lights are at their brightest. So
I agree with you. Game one especially Game three were disappointing,
but buying large, good series for Men Thompson, great finish,
and so I had him as a stock up.

Speaker 3 (49:48):
Yeah, so you know, I definitely do with on the overall,
I just think we have to mention guys that grows
throughout the series, and A Men was one of those guys,
and that memes also also talking about how earlier on
he was struggling. And I don't mean nor the offense,
but defensively as well well not really struggling, but not

(50:09):
being as impactful as is expected them to be. And
and you know, obviously disclaimer, I'm not saying the and
I'm going to talk about one or more person that
these guys under performed or anything like that. I'm saying
that they lost the series. And so I'm going to
nitpick a little bit on things that I thought could
have been better. And to me, these guys are kind

(50:32):
of more in the neutral zone, neutral positive. And then
later as we move on to within the segment, I'll
talk about guys who were clear stock ups for me. Right,
and that guy there was mentioned though, See, there's the
best pass coaches to me of all type or ever
since I watched the basketball.

Speaker 2 (50:51):
He just has.

Speaker 3 (50:52):
Crazy good adjustments, not only defensively, we're offensively as well.
And with Emay, we saw like I was really impressed
in his ability to rally the team after being down
three one. He deserves credit for that and the different
types of loobes we threw what the Warriors defensively, he
deserves credit for that as well. But even so, even still,

(51:18):
the lack of adjustments really like really really hurt, and
then it's probably the biggest reason why we lost and
so not out only nothing like that. I think he
was to all these playoffs a neutral to positive, but
I do think that you have to mention that offensively.
He's part of the reason also why why we went

(51:42):
down three one to begin with. But once again not
saying not saying these guys are are stuck down. Try
I do think that they are stock neutral and a
man to me stuck up just because how linear it
was his podcast with about the series and how impressive
he was the last three games. Oh yeah, before I'll

(52:02):
let you move on to stock ups for you.

Speaker 2 (52:05):
Yeah, well, let me jump in real quick. I had
emay and stock neutral for many of the same reasons.
I think you can't discount the culture and the Warriors
raved after the series about how tough the Rockets were,
the level of fight they had. That's ima Udoka the
defense one translated, including all for Inchim Doon, and I

(52:25):
know we'll get to that so any questions about the defense,
which is emy Udoka's forte, how would that translate to
a playoff setting. Would teams find a way to exploit
all for inch from goone? Absolutely not so a defensive
coach to see it fully translate the way it did
against the Warriors, I can't give him, you know, a
stock down after that. However, just as we talked about

(52:48):
Jalen not having a lot of counters individually, it felt
like Imo Udoka didn't on the offensive endo the floor either. Really,
the only counter he had was Steven Adams and the
double and I mentioned this on the last pot. Steven's
a clear positive. He was amazing in this series. The
differentials don't lie, but his increased role down the stretch

(53:10):
of the year was not some strategic masterclass. The Rockets
did not fully anticipate the double big going as it did,
or thinking they would even need the double big to
the extent they did. It's just at some point in
the year the data was so damning on their lack
of half court execution on offense that they realized that

(53:30):
their only chance to beat a good team in the
playoffs was going to be getting as many offensive rebounds
as possible and mucking it up. And to Steven's credit,
he played really well and he excelled in that role.
And I hope they bring him back. By the way,
if they bring him back, and they should, he'll be
a free agent. I think, you know, the Rockets have

(53:51):
bird rights, they have every reason to want to bring
him back. I would think that Steven has interest in
coming back. I'm not sure, you know, as good as
the player were. He played just fifty eight games average
thirteen minutes game in the regular season. Not sure a
true starting level gig at more than mle money will
be out there, And even if it was, I'm not

(54:11):
sure in his thirties if he would want to take
that bat, he might prefer to be in a timeshare
arrangement in Houston where they can load manage him during
the regular season. And obviously ima Udoka has proven that
if the play warrant said, he'll scale up that role
and find a way to play him twenty five thirty
minutes per game in the playoffs. I think for Steven
in his second decade in the NBA, this might be

(54:31):
the perfect spot for him. And obviously he excelled in
his role, and I would love to have him back,
a huge leadership and a culture perspective. So when I
say that he was the only adjustment for emy Udoka,
and I'm somewhat criticizing that, I'm not criticizing Steven at all.
It just felt like that Ima Udoka, somewhere along the
way just sort of said, Hey, this team just isn't

(54:55):
going to have it in these spots, and so the
only thing I think I can do is go to
more Steven Adams. And in this series, you know, I
had Jabari. I wanted to have Jabari in stock up
because from an efficiency perspective, he had a true shooting
percentage of almost sixty eight. He shot I think forty
six percent from three, and yet he only played twelve

(55:18):
minutes in Game seven, and I think he was at
barely above twenty for the series. So at some point,
imi Udoka is not an idiot. There's some reason. Maybe
it's a practice thing, Maybe I don't know, it's just
gut feel for how certain lineups perform. But as good
as Jabari's efficiency metrics are, at some point I have

(55:39):
a tough time saying, clearly, stock up if he's not
convincing the coaching staff, even with these elite metrics that
he's worthy of more than twenty minutes per game. But conversely,
it felt like Im didn't try it. If he doesn't
think it's a series for Jabari, fine, if he doesn't
think it is for Chari. For the reason to talked
about earlier, okay, they barely tried Aaron Holliday, and if

(56:00):
you go further down the rotation, there's a reason why
throughout the year people advocated to give a little bit
more leash to Cam Whitmore and Reed Shepherd. They weren't
going to turn to them in this series. But it's
not just this series, it's who's actually prepared to take
on that role, and they weren't in a spot where
they were even close. There were guys they Theoretically, if

(56:22):
you were totally out on reading Cam this year, you
could have gone after guys at the trade deadline, and
they didn't. It just felt like to me that Emiodoka
had his starters and not everyone loved it, but clearly
Fred Jalen Dylan and I had Dylan as neutral. It
was an okay series for Dylan, but the over three

(56:42):
from distance in Game seven and some of the off
ball lopses against Buddy. He will prevent me from saying
that it was a stock up, even though the true
shooting was like fifty nine. Still a decent series overall.
I just can't say with how Dyllen performed in Game
seven that it was a stock up, even though at
times in the series he did help them out out
of sticky half court situations with some decent shot making.

(57:04):
So I threw in that one quickly. But to get
back to the broader point, which is eMate, He's got
his starters Fred Jalen, Dylan Amen, and Shongoon, and then
clearly Stephen became the most trusted guy off the bitch
and there was nothing other than that. And in a
series where the Rockets were constantly behind the eight ball,

(57:24):
they were down twenty three points after the first thirty
minutes of a home Game one, they were down three
to one in the series, they were down fifteen points
right after halftime in a home Game seven. For a
team that was as behind the eight ball as the
Rockets were, to not have any adjustment other than at
least in terms of personnel, and I think to a

(57:46):
large extent tactical as well. Let's just go super big
and try and rebound our way out of this mess
and get enough shots or fouls that somehow we have
enough points to be competitive. Maybe it's personnel. That's why
I'm not gonna say it's negative. And I'm also you know,
the defense was good enough that it's not negative overall,
let's be clear. But I can't call it stock up

(58:07):
because it just felt like tactics personnel. Steven Adams double
big was the only counter they had if that starting
lineup wasn't working the way they wanted to. It could
be increased experimenting with Jabari Atari. It could be guys
further down the rotation. It could be advocating for a
pickup at the trade deadline. There's lots of different ways

(58:29):
you can go about it. It could be having Read
and Cam in a better position to be ready if
the situation wants. But Stephen being the only guy outside
of the top five that was really the change it
up piece of the equation. Stephen was great in that role.
I hope they bring him back. But if they bring
him back, and I think they will, I think it's

(58:49):
more likely than not. I hope they bring him back
as a backup center. That's you know, certainly scalable and
gives you the option to play different ways on a
occasion if the matchup warrant said, sure, you can go
double big. But I don't want double big to be
the band aid that it was down the stretch of
this season. I want them to figure out ways to

(59:10):
be more efficient, to have more shot making, more creation offensively,
and maybe that means dialing up the role and usage
for guys like Shabari and Tari. We hope Reid and
Cam play more next year, or maybe it's an external acquisition.
I don't know, but it just felt like for Ima
Ridoka that Steven Adams was the only adjustment, and while
he was an incredible band aid, it was a band

(59:32):
aid nonetheless, and I think you needed more than one
of those if you're going to be a really good
team like Golden State. So that's sort of my emay take.
It wasn't a bad series of any meaning the defense
translated in the macro that might be the most important thing,
but yeah, the lack of personnel and tactical counters it
keeps me from from rating it positively. And by the way,

(59:55):
we've mentioned almost everybody at this point. Let's throw an
all par in Shangoon as well. I had him as
an neutral. I suspect you're going to have him as
a stock up. The only reason why I had him
as a neutral as good as the defense was, and
I agree with you it was outstanding. I can't call
it stock up when you're a big man and your
true shooting percentage for the series is forty nine and
after having a good Game one, it was forty six

(01:00:15):
and a half the rest of the way. You can
call it stock up if you try and look at
it in the super macro in that you know, you
can just look at last season and we have reasons
to think that Shangoon's going to improve and that this
year overall was just a one off when it comes
to him not having the touch that he normally does.
But in this series, I can't call it a clear
stock up when you're that inefficient as a big guy.

(01:00:37):
But it's also stock down if you defend at the
level that that Shinoon did. So while I'm understanding of
you being high on him, I had Shangoon as a
neutral simply because he made up for it in ways
that Jalen didn't. But he was nearly as inefficient as Jalen.
And so that's what made me, you know, neutral rather
than positive.

Speaker 3 (01:01:01):
So one singoon I had my rank last podcast before
before we get to him, just quick fire, Debari massive,
stuck up? Who else Dylan newTL for me? Who else
seen someone? Adams obviously massive stock up. You've got to
bring him back. He should be able to. No team

(01:01:23):
offer him more than the MLI. That would make tense
to offer him that money. Like if you're acting as
a below the cap team to sign Steven Adams, few
and alas probably shouldn't want to go play for you
with this digenous career. And I mean, just just do
the smart thing. Listen, do if it has to be
a three year, forty five million dollars contract, it makes

(01:01:43):
all the sense in the world. It's going to be
a bargain by the time it gets to the last year,
considering how the captain is going to continue to grow.
So and he was just massive. You made all the
points about the overdependence on it. I'm not gonna get
into that as well. I fully believe with everything he said.
I'll talk about a little bit more about open Shinghund.

(01:02:03):
To me, the reason he's a stock cup is because
he made me feel like this series doesn't matter. We
were like, he's he and the man are the sole
reason why it doesn't doesn't stink as much as we
lost the series, because I came away from it feeling like, Okay,
I'll put buns in the corner. He sort of this
friend side. He wasn't making shots, but he was still shooting.

(01:02:26):
He was still going out there and fighting on the
defensive end, trying to back up Tray moments and it's
not working. But we're not getting any better shots. So
it's either I start making these shots or we're gonna
lose the game. Anyways, Suddenly kill him didn't get going,
and so he kept trying. He missed a lot of
on in the moment. You probably find tweets at me

(01:02:46):
criticizing him, but because that's in the moment, he was
missing shots, but the fighting spirit was there, and to me,
the defense was just so outstanding. Like I have zeroed
out at this point in my mind that he will
be a petty and said he is a better defender
than al Hard for this and has been for a

(01:03:07):
lot of the later stages of his career. And we
often talked about all hard for that as the template
of how a guy that with seng Wound's frame can
be effective on defense. And he showed a lot that
he was mobile, he was switching, he was witzing, he
was recovering, he was chasing out close outs, he was
being smart and in the correct decisions on defense. It

(01:03:28):
was a moment in which I saw him playing and
I'm like, it really doesn't matter, like if you're not
going to get exposed defensively at all, like you're actually
one of the biggest positives on the team. In my opinion,
that completely changes the outlook because that's what he was
working on the entire offseason, and that type of work
doesn't go away. He was not gonna He's not gonna

(01:03:50):
forget how to play defense.

Speaker 2 (01:03:51):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (01:03:52):
And unless he stops getting stops taking care of his body,
which I don't think he'll do, he's not gonna lose
that mobility and the world special them as much as
anything can test on besides vertical spacing, which can be
a problem still, but I mean, a guy doubt you
can lose the series just purely based off of vertical
spacing and so on the offensive ent I have and

(01:04:15):
I'm gonna knock on wood here, but I have zeroed
out in my mind that with an offseason and which
he's going to focus on these touch shots and then
in which you recognize that his offense hasn't been there
all year, I think, if not brunching Loon, it's going
to spend the off season working on his offense after
neglecting it's really for the past offseason, we all we

(01:04:38):
heard about was conditioning and defense and all of these things.
Is really scary for other things.

Speaker 2 (01:04:45):
And to Shagun's credit, he called out the offense after
Dame seven said this was a substandard season for him,
which it was. And that's a huge part of being
able to improve is having the self awareness to to
know what you need to work on and to have
the humility to you know, not try and just sunshine
pomp and look at the counting stats. No, he knows

(01:05:06):
he can be better. He's saying it on the record,
and that's a big part of doing what it takes
to actually improve it.

Speaker 3 (01:05:12):
Yeah, and he strikes me a bit of as a
I've talked about this before James Harden fibe. You saw
James Harden's season overseas offseason over offseason always came back
with a new weapon, and to me, right kind, it's
not really about getting a new weapon, it's about getting
back the weapons that he had before that he nequick
is because he recognized that defense was a big part

(01:05:33):
of what he needed to get better at in order
to this thing to become a playoff team. And I'd
say that I think that's an acquired scale at this point.
And so now he's going to work on his office
and I'm really excited to see what he looks like
next season because I'm truly, truly convinced that he's going
to be a lot better offensively. And so that's why
to me, it's got to be a trend up, because

(01:05:54):
you remove the next essential flaw of you as a
prospect that you could have shot one for twenty in
Game seven, and I'm like, listen, happens bad shooting nights happen.
You just removed the one thing that I could not like.
Chicken improves me wrong every step of the way, right,

(01:06:14):
And to me, it was always tough to give him
that much credit because of that aspect of I just
don't quite know how you're gonna hold up defensively in
a playoff series, and that's something something that you can't
take away until you actually do it. And he did it,
and he was not only passable, he was outstanding. And
so that just almost turns him into a different prospect

(01:06:38):
and into a different player in my ex And so
after that, I to me, he's like, to me, he's
gotta be a massive stock up. Even though if you
are purely talking about his performance within the series and
discounting his bad offense into his outstanding defense, I can
understand why he's a neutral to slight positive. He was

(01:07:00):
just talking about the series. But to me, I can't
just do that. I've got to take into consideration what
this means moving forward and moving forward, to me, that's
moving from a guy like that's moving from a welltier
all star today that's going to have the impact of
a superstar to what I believe Alpernsingham's going to have.
And so well, that's why to me, it has to

(01:07:22):
be it has to be stuck up because I can't
separate what happened in this series from what this means
moving forward.

Speaker 2 (01:07:30):
Well, and along those same lines, that's part of my
argument for Fred van Fleet. Now, the one distinction I
would make is that the aggregate of Fred's performance is true.
Shooting percentage in the series was over sixty three. That's
insanely good. But one of the reasons that I'm so high,
maybe a little bit higher than you, on Fred's performance
after this series is you can certainly split it intwo

(01:07:53):
and Fred was below average efficiency in the first three games,
and then the last four he was insanely good. That's true,
But I think from an on court perspective, when you
strip away the obvious benefits, the reasons you bring in
Fred then fleet when it comes to leadership, mentoring, culture,
extension of the coaching staff, what you want is the

(01:08:14):
ability to be a playoff riser. The guy I would
most compare him to is Chris Paul earlier this decade
with Shay Gilgess Alexander in Oklahoma City in that backcourt,
and then with Devin Booker and the Phoenix sunt You're
not asking him to be a super efficient, high usage
guy throughout the season. You're asking him to be a

(01:08:36):
steadying force to help promote the development of the potential
star backcourt guy next to him. And finally, perhaps the
most important piece of this puzzle, if and when you
get to the playoffs, to have that extra gear, that
playoff riser factor to where you can lean on him
a little bit more in a tight spot, and he's

(01:08:57):
capable of scaling up his production. And even though this
year overall was subpar for Fred relative to expectations, I
think what he did in the series reminds you why
the Rockets are justified and wanting to bring him back,
and I'm almost certain that they will. And you know,
you can quibble over the Chris Paul comparisons, not because

(01:09:19):
of Fred, but because you know, to this point Jalen
is not close to Sga or Devin Booker, and that's
a fair concern. But in terms of Fred's piece of
the puzzle and to you know where I see some
similarities to the argument you're making with Shangoon for the
broader mission, the formula that the Rockets are trying to

(01:09:39):
put together this puzzle for an eventual title contender. What
Fred showed you in this series, beyond just the numbers,
was that he still has the ability even now at
thirty one, to do all of the things that they
want him to do. When this team, hopefully as soon
as a year from now, is truly in contention mode.

(01:10:00):
So that's why I had Fred as clearly a stock up.
I can respect the argument for Shangoon. I would note
that Fred had a true shooting percentage above sixty three
and Shangoon right at forty nine. But overall, in the
bigger picture, I think they're both stock up for the
same reason. And by the way, there was one other
topic I wanted to get you on today's pod, but
I think we've already answered it with our analysis of

(01:10:23):
stock up, stock down, and neutral. You know, should the
Rockets stay the course roster continuity was the phrase or
Fellstone said at the end of season press conference. Or
should they go star chasing as some around the league
expect them to do. They've been linked well more speculation,
but the potential names on the market like Giannis, like
Kevin Durant, like Zion Williamson. It could always be posturing

(01:10:47):
what they say in that you certainly don't want to
indicate for leverage purposes that you're desperate to make a move.
But I really think they're telling the truth in this case,
and I'm okay with staying these because with a men
in Shangoon as building blocks showing you in this series
that either translated or in Shoinggoon's case, there's a pretty

(01:11:09):
clear path to its translating. Really the only guy left
in your true core that you could perhaps look to
move on from as Jalen, But for the reasons we
outlined earlier, it doesn't really make sense to trade him
just to trade him if you can do it as
part of a mega deal and you're really convinced that
a guy you're getting makes sense on every level, but

(01:11:33):
then why would a team give up a player of
that with Jalen as the centerpiece of the offer. They're
probably I don't want a man or Shangoon, and I'm
not willing to do that in most cases after this series.
So if a man in Shangoon are even higher on
the list and Jalen, you know he's not higher, but
for the reasons we've outlined, is you know, a bit lower,

(01:11:56):
but it doesn't make sense to trade him at this
time in most situations. And then you know your other
core seven Tari and Jabari I just they're nice players.
I don't think they're really needle movers in terms of
you know, mega trade packages, and you have a fairly
deep team already so it's not like they would be
looking for a mid tier guy. If they do a

(01:12:17):
major trade, it would be for you know, one of
the blockbusters. When you add it all up, I just
unless you are really convinced and a guy really wants
to be in Houston, everything lines up. I tend to
think you say the course and you know Read Shepherd
and Cam Whitmore, you sort of have to throw them
in the same bucket. Astari and Jabari, not from the
standpoint of their archetypes as players, but they just haven't

(01:12:40):
played enough to where they would move the needle. Even
if you throw in all the future draft as sentence,
they have a lot from the Phoenix Suns the Brooklyn Nuts,
you'd have to give up some sort of present value.
That's the way ninety five percent of these star trades work.
And I just don't know who the Rockets how they
would subtract enough. And you'd also have to take away

(01:13:01):
from the current team to fit in rotation minutes if
you're bringing in, you know, a star that's going to
play thirty five plus minutes per game. I just when
you actually think it through, I don't see Tari, Jabari,
Read or Cam moving the needle and personally, that's another
reason why I'm okay with staying the course. I'm bullish
on Reed Shepherd in year two. I thought he looked
better in the glimpses we saw late in the season.

(01:13:21):
I heard very encouraging things behind the scenes. If you
give Reach Shepherd the Aaron Holiday role which he had
at the start of the year, and then you know
he lost it, and maybe he was more ready for
it by the end of the year, but they weren't
going to make that type of change with the playoff
race going on and trying to lock up the number
two seed. That's some upperability besides just the guys in

(01:13:41):
your current rotation getting better. You can slide and read
or maybe cam into those Aaron Holliday minutes and give
you some more juice, some more upside just by saying
the course. So for all those reasons, with a man
in Shagoon taking leaps forward and Jalen just it not
most likely being the right time to trade him, because
why would another team. You know, we say all this,
you know, if he's valued not that positively, and then

(01:14:03):
if he is, but then from the other perspective, why
would a team when we list out these limitations. Why
would a team value Jalen all that highly another team
that is at this point for all those reasons, I'm
inclined to stay the course. I'm okay with it. It's
not sexy. There will be some coming off as seven
game loss to the Warriors that hate it. But I
think when you just when you look at it in totality,

(01:14:24):
when you look at the market factors what it would
take to get a deal done, I don't think they
have to start chase. And I'm guessing we're in alignment
based on the analysis that you've already thrown out right.

Speaker 3 (01:14:34):
So to me, I think you are leaning. I think
you're closer to staying the course than I am. I
think I'm a little bit for a little away from it,
But it doesn't mean that I wouldn't be okay with it.
But I do think that as so I'm I'm gonna
give you a thake because I don't want to run
away from the question, but I do want some more
time to figure out exactly what I want and don't want,

(01:14:58):
because I think that is already for both sides, and
I either think it's okay to give it a little
bit more time. But when I sit right now currently,
I will My current perspective is Booker would make sense,
Metal would make sense, but I don't think the market. Yeah,
I don't think around the market. Maybe maybe if the

(01:15:20):
count gets weapons like Anolist and places help us out here,
KD depending on price, may make sense. But even if
I like KD, so Donovan and and and, then there
would be foundational differences. KD as a lower price star
guy because of how of how old he is comes

(01:15:42):
in in a different way because it doesn't necessarily completely
wipe off your team dynamic or remove a massive building block,
kind of like the Jimmy Butler acquisition by the Warriors
of the Deadline. It's yes, it's a star treate, but
it's not a okay. This is publically changes the outlook
of the team pat trade. So if it's an I

(01:16:03):
could see the argument right now right I I I
retain the right to change might take as time goes along.
It is not a strong opinion. I could see a
foundational move if it's specifically for a shooting guard, and
I could see a non foundational star move or an
older guy that would work that that wouldn't cast the

(01:16:25):
core asset that we have to move at this point,
I would be open to those two possibilities, regardlessing the
middle of middle ground upgrades of specific role guys, maybe
a scoting shooting out of the bench or you know whatever,
whatever whatever you want to like. If you don't believe
in read, maybe you point a backup point guard or
moving on from Freslan to seek an upgrade there, or

(01:16:47):
slighte upgrade from jail. And if it's a zach Lavine
type stuff like that, And I currently don't have a
strong opinion on it, and I need some more time
to look into what might be available and what and
what is out there in the league that in the
sense of what I talked about earlier, in that any
upgrade that comes in needs to be a capable of
defender or be able to mold it into a cable

(01:17:09):
defender via extra effort. And I haven't made that that
research yet. So let's growl through what I said.

Speaker 2 (01:17:17):
Okay, all right, Well, we've got a few months to
keep going on this, and really I don't expect most
of the situations to come to a head at closer
to the draft in late June, and obviously the start
of free agency at the beginning of July, so we've
got some time we can come back to this, So yeah,
it's fair, And using that same logic, we can also

(01:17:39):
wait to see what the market values of the Rocket's
assets are and that could influence it as well, because
again part of my read on this, it's not just saying, oh,
the Rockets are fine, they don't need to do anything.
It's more looking at how I think their available assets
would be viewed on the market and whether the ones
that I think are truly movable in the eyes of

(01:18:01):
this front office, would they get you the type of
difference maker that justifies the move And I just have
a tough time seeing it now. But you know, maybe
the market it is higher on some of these players
are assets than I think. And we'll see based on
some of the reporting over the next six to eight
weeks as we get closer to free agency, Rockets will
have we'll see if it's non taxpayer tax player, but

(01:18:23):
they will have the mL available to them. So if
we're talking about a moderate upgrade, they should be a
fairly desirable destination coming off of fifty between thirty season
number two in the West. So that's a tool to
keep in the back of your mind as well. If
we're talking about just adding, you know, a role player
type to give you a little bit more depth, the
mL could definitely be a factor as well. You won't
have to use that for Steven Adams because you have

(01:18:44):
bird rights there. So to wind down the pod, just
to go very quick. For me, my list was stock Down, Jalen, Atari,
stock Neutral, Imagebori, Dylan, and Shongoon. Stock up was a men,
Fred and Steven Adams. How did you rank those nine guys?

Speaker 3 (01:19:02):
So not necessarily ranking, but just stuck up stock down,
I think stock down was Jalen, stock Neutral was Starry, Dylan,
E May and that's rebably it stuck up, I would say, Amen, King, Noon,
Jabbari and Fred, I think that's it.

Speaker 2 (01:19:24):
And Stephen, Oh and Steven.

Speaker 3 (01:19:25):
It's feelings so obvious, there's no way you could have
put them anywhere.

Speaker 2 (01:19:29):
Yeah, and Javari is the most interesting case because, I mean,
the efficiency numbers were fantastic. I just there's just something
that keeps me from calling it positive when the rockets
so clearly had this deficiency, and yet, for one reason
or another, Emydoka didn't play it more than twenty minutes
per game. So be it the matchup, be it what
they see in practice in the film room, whatever the

(01:19:50):
case may be, there's got to be some reason. I
don't think Emydoka is incompetent. Now that doesn't mean he
can't make a mistake, but it's just it keeps me.
Even though the efficiency numbers overall, even with a one
for five showing in game seven, were excellent, the minutes
total was lolow enough that there's got to be some
other piece of the puzzle that we don't know, And
so that's why I'm going neutral there, but totally respect

(01:20:10):
your argument when you look at strictly the data for
him being a stock up heading into a contract off
season for him and Tari easen last thing very quickly.
We will have a pod next week recapping the draft lottery.
Rockets enter, of course, via the Phoenix Suns with the
ninth best odds. The good news that's the exact slot
they were in a year ago with the Brooklyn Nets.

(01:20:32):
I believe before they jumped up to number three and
got reached, Shepherd Hawks were in that range as well,
So there's certainly precedent for a team with similar odds
of moving up into the top four. With the era
of shoying distance cinevized tanking, it's conceivable that the Rockets
could move up, So we'll hope for that. The other
little tid that I wanted to put out there before

(01:20:55):
we wind down the pod, I've heard that besides themselves,
one other team the Rockets would love to jump into
the top four of the lottery, and ideally three or
four would be the Brooklyn Nets. For a couple of reasons. One,
you know, you'd obviously rather elite talent, and the crown
jewl of this class is Cooper Flag at the Duke

(01:21:17):
projected Go one. You'd always prefer elite talent to go
to the East. But the other factor here is that
if the Nets get a young cornerstone, they're more likely
to build around that player. You typically don't see top
four picks traded, and so because of that, the swap
right unprotected that the Rockets still have in twenty seven

(01:21:38):
from the original James Harden deal with the Brooklyn Nets
is all the more valuable if they're going to be young.
For the reasons we know all too well from the
last few years, most young players do not contribute at
a high level to winning, especially if they're flanked by
other young players. I think the idea is that if
they get a top four pick in this draft, the
NETS would be more likely to have the entire roster
along a similar timeline, as opposed to, you know, if

(01:22:00):
they stay at six or they drop to seven or eight,
the NETS might be more inclined to say, if this
isn't going to be that good anyway, we're Brooklyn, we
have a huge market in New York. Let's just go
and aggressively, either this offseason or next try and trade
for big name veterans, get competitive, and then hope we
can you know, star chase star chase on the trade

(01:22:20):
market by just advertising our location, the bright lights, everything
that comes from playing in New York City. So I
understand there's a pushback in that if they go all
the way up to one, is Cooper Flag good enough
to where even by twenty twenty seven, at twenty one
years old, he's helping them win, or maybe he's a

(01:22:41):
draw to another star. Maybe, But I think the ideal
scenario would be they move up to three or four,
and so they get a guy that could be a cornerstone,
good enough that they're not going to move the pick.
They're likely to stay young but not good enough to be,
you know, white to the Cooper level of transformative. I
think that's the ideal scenario. So certainly the Rockets are

(01:23:02):
more concerned about themselves first, but beyond that, I think
they would love to see the Brooklyn Nets move up,
ideally to three or four rather than one or two.
But regardless, I think there's there's merit to Brooklyn moving
up and sending as many of those top talents to
the East as possible. That's my general draft lottery preview. Powell,
we don't need to talk about prospects at all, because
there's no point when we're just a few days away

(01:23:23):
from seeing the order. But in terms of the Nets
and any other teams in the lottery, is there anyone
else besides the Rockets that you want to see move
up or particularly not see move up.

Speaker 3 (01:23:33):
I don't want the Fixer's the move down. Basically, oh,
I don't see to get to pick. Yeah. And as
far as you know, I typically do this every single
draft because I already convinced myself that we're never going
to move to number one. But in this addition, in
this fiction scenario where we do get to move up.
I really really like Harper from from Rutgers. I think

(01:23:58):
that's how you produce it. And I I really think
he might be like a k getting inside type of
prospect and considering the series he just went through the
guy like that would be really useful. And I just
you know, if if I had Big my guy, I
think he's probably my guy besides the yelpts group of
fly things. So yeah, just stop going into it. I

(01:24:22):
think my feeling is, well, let's get big too.

Speaker 2 (01:24:25):
Okay, Wow, that is bullish. I like it spicy. All right, Well,
we'll uh, we'll see how that ages when we record
probably Tuesday, maybe Wednesday next week. Depending on what happens
in the lottery, there might be a greater sense of
urgency to record earlier. Wink wink. Hopefully we have a
reason to push the envelope. But regardless, we'll do a
pod next week reacting to the lottery and also getting

(01:24:46):
to some of the bigger picture post Mortem Warrior series
topics that we wanted to get to today but didn't
have time to because boy, there's just so much to
unpack out of this series that we got through maybe
sixty percent of the outline that I gave you earlier today, Polo,
and it's been like an hour and a half. I
wanted to keep this show an hour or less. We
went to an hour and a half and still didn't

(01:25:08):
even fully get through the outline that I had. So yeah,
let's follow up on the rest next week. We'll see
where it takes us. Anyway, that will do it for
today's show, And if you want to get in touch
with me or Polo before our next episode, the best
place to get it is to do that. That is
is online. I'm on Blue Sky at Benjubo's powow is
on Twitter slash x at Palo Alps, NBA, and this
show is on Twitter slash x at the logger line,

(01:25:31):
where if you go to the logger line you can
find contributors of this podcast Apple, Google and Spotify, Subscribe,
Believe Posit Review if you have not already, and also
links to friends, Spartner sponsors for the program, Carbo Brewing USA.
Today's Rockets are Sports Off seven ninety. Please enjoy their
content and you can help keep us going as one
of the most active podcasts covering Houston Rockets, basketball, everything,

(01:25:51):
you can do to make this podcast look good, we
would greatly appreciate it. All Right, with those plugs complete,
we are done for tonight. For Polo, I'm Ben. Thanks
always for Usten, and please come back soon for more
new episodes of the Logger Line

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Dateline NBC

24/7 News: The Latest

Therapy Gecko

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Stock up, stock down, hold: Evaluating Rockets in 2025 playoffs

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Dateline NBC

24/7 News: The Latest

Therapy Gecko

All Episodes

Stock up, stock down, hold: Evaluating Rockets in 2025 playoffs

Dateline NBC