June 14, 2025 • 49 mins
With trade talks surrounding the Phoenix Suns and All-Star forward Kevin Durant potentially entering the closing stage, it appears Houston remains among the top suitors. Saturday’s podcast explores the landscape and the price points at which it makes sense for the Rockets to get a deal done (or walk away).
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Rockets fans, Welcome to The lagger Line, an exclusive podcast
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Speaker 1 (00:39):
What's Up, Ladies and joe Lyn Welcome to a special
weekend episode of The logger Line, as always served to
you courtesy of Carbox Brewing. I'm your host, Ben Jubo's
editor of USA Today's Rocket Squire, a contributor to Sports
Talk seven ninety, official flagship redization of your Houston Rockets.
We're doing this weekend mini episode because there have been
(01:00):
reports published in the last twenty four hours or so
that the Kevin Durant trade negotiations, which the Rockets still
appear to be in on, are entering their final stages,
with a deal possible in the next few days. The
Sun's going through their offers from teams such as the Rockets,
the Miami Heat, the Minnesota Timberwolves, perhaps the San Antonio Spurs,
and New York Knicks, although recent reportings suggest that they're
(01:23):
a lot less likely at this point in time. So
I'm gonna catch you up on where I think the
negotiations actually are somewhat My winning of the tea leaves
somewhat sourced just educated guesses for the most part on
my part, on where things stand on midday Saturday the fourteenth,
and where I think things are likely to go over
(01:45):
the next couple of days as the negotiations enter their
final stages. And then I'm going to go through the
reasons to do the deal, the reasons not to do
the deal, and why assuming the cost is reasonable, I
am generally in support of this. So let's start with
the state of play, because I think it's becoming very
(02:05):
clear the Rockets are where Kevin Durant wants to be,
at least among the three teams that are being talked
about by ESPN Sean Sherania, that's the Rockets, the Heat,
the Timberwolves. It's been reported that Katie wants to be
in Texas. Obviously, he played his college ball at UT
still has a lot of ties to the state in Houston,
(02:26):
the as direct ties to Ima Udoka orre al Ivy
now DJ Augustein in the front office, there's lots of
reasons that Katie would want to be here, and that's
before going into the street that the team, which just
finished off at fifty two to thirty season, fourth best
record in the NBA, second best in the Western Conference,
and Katie still an All Star even at thirty six
years old, could perhaps put the Rockets into that true
(02:49):
contention tier as soon as next season. So there's reasons
for Katie to want the Rockets. There were also reports
that he was interested in the Spurs as well. With
San Antonio Abbie even closer to Austin, where he played
his college ball. But the Spurs are quite as close
from a timeline perspective as the Rockets are, and I
think that's why it looks like they're dropping back in
(03:11):
the bidding, because they have less of an incentive than
the Rockets do to pay a price that would be
acceptable for the Suns. So if the Spurs aren't willing
to bid at an acceptable level and Katie wants to
be in Texas, then Houston is the spot, at least
(03:32):
in terms of his wish list, and so I think
that's why every report from Schams ever since he started
listing teams a few days ago, has had Houston as
the first team out of his mouth. He's done several
TV spots, a couple of stories online, and in every
one of them, if you listen to the ordering of
(03:52):
the teams, the Rockets are the first team that he mentions.
That's not a coincidence. It's in my opinion, because that's
where at his representation want to be out of the
realistic options. And I'm not going to go too deep
into the possibilities for the Rockets because honestly, I don't
(04:12):
think a lot has changed since June third. There was
this report from Kelly Eco of the Athletic and I
had a pod reacting to it the next day on
June fourth. You can find it in our archives and
I'll read you the original report from Kelly eleven days
ago on the third of June. I really don't think
much has changed from a Houston perspective here. This is
(04:32):
not to say the Rockets and Suns are not in communication.
Phoenix is aggressive in pursuit of trading Kevin Durant and
regaining control of their draft capital, starting with the number
ten pick in June's draft. Since the end of the season,
Houston has filded several calls from Phoenix, who have since
gradually lowered their asking price for Durant. There is a
price in which the Rockets would be interested, but with
(04:53):
fear of breaking up their roster for a thirty six
year old coming off injury, doubt remains over a deal materializing.
I said it at the time and I stand by it.
The key phrase there there is a price where the
Rockets would be interested. That was always when we talked
about this hypothetical for months, going back to the trade deadline.
(05:15):
When you have to match salaries for a guy that's
going to be making over fifty million dollars, is there
a point in which there's actually a financially feasible path
that would work for the Rockets. It seems there is,
and with that in mind, they are a viable destination,
and I talked about it on that pod. I'm not
(05:35):
going to go through the financial math nearly as much today,
but most likely it's either Jalen Green as the primary
salary matching piece or Dylan Brooks, and then one of
Javari Smith Junior or Reed Shepherd, one of your young
prospects making about ten to twelve million dollars a year.
Dylan at twenty two. The bottom line, you need to
(05:56):
get in the vicinity of thirty five million dollars from
next year's payroll. Jalen will be at a little over
thirty three, so he would do it alone with Dylan.
It would have to be in combination with someone else.
But you have about thirteen million in expiring salaries between
jacqu Landell and Air Holiday. That would get you again
to thirteen and then you need to get to you know,
(06:18):
the mid to upper forties in order for a deal
to work financially for Kevin Durant and the load to
mid fifties. The question is how you do that last
thirty five million or so. Jalen could come very close
to doing it by himself. If it's not Jalen, then
Dylan and either Jabari or Read that's the most likely path.
(06:38):
And Kelly reported on the third that there is a
price where the Rockets would be interested, i e. One
that's financially feasible, and so it just depends on whether
the Suns see that as a deal that's worth doing
for them. And now we're entering the closing stages because
if the Suns are going to get a pick in
(06:59):
the twenty twenty five first round as part of this deal,
And I think if it's the Rockets, obviously the number
ten overall would be highly likely to be in the deal.
They had a tough enough time last year finding minutes
for Reed Shepherd and Cam whitmore So, I don't think
they want to bring in another prospect to'd be blocked
from NBA playing time. Then it behooves the Suns to
do a deal a week to ten days before the draft,
(07:22):
because that allows them to actually go through scouting processes
and bring guys to their facility for interviews, and to
actually maximize the value of that pick by allowing them
to do homework on what makes the most sense. For months,
it's been talked about that the draft is something of
a deadline, because getting a twenty twenty five pick and
(07:43):
doing something of a reset in terms of the timeline
for the Suns would make sense. Well, in a vague sense. Yes,
you'd probably want a twenty twenty five draft pick, and
you'd want to make the pick yourself as opposed to
have it selected for you by somebody else. But really
it's not the first round of the draft on June
twenty fifth. Really, it's that window where we are now,
(08:07):
we're eleven days out from the first round. That's the
sweet spot because then you have time to actually go
through the draft process yourself and bring some of these
guys to your facilities for workouts, interviews, whatever the case
may be. So that's why in the last forty eight
to seventy two hours you've seen reports that these negotiations
are entering the final stages. I don't think there's a
(08:29):
ton of negotiating going on from a Rockets perspective. I
think the offer that's out there and what they're willing
to do is pretty much the same now as it
was ten or eleven days ago. It's more the Suns
have this incentive to get to the finish line with
these negotiations, and the Rockets are always there. Once it
was confirmed there's a price that works, they're certainly in
(08:50):
the equation. The Suns are also trying to see what
other options are from other teams across the NBA, and
then they'll compare those offers amongst themselves. They'll obviously work
work with KD and his agency representation to ideally find
something that's satisfactory to them, because I think to get
peak value Ideally, the team that's trading for Durant would
(09:12):
also be open to signing him to a contract extension,
and conversely, Durant being willing to sign a contract extension
because he wants to be there. Otherwise, would the team
bid peak value for a guy who's entering the final
year of his contract and conceivably could leave you for
no compensation in a year, I don't know. So it
behooves the Sons and Durant to work together on a
(09:32):
destination that's platable for both sides, and then we'll see
at the end of this process what those offers are.
And you know, the Sons will make the final choice themselves,
but what those vital offers are will depend, in my opinion,
on this back and forth negotiation between the Suns, KD
(09:53):
and his representation, the teams involved, and what KD is
or isn't willing to do when it comes to a
contract extension, and any other factors within his control with
that team. It's not that Katie will make the final
choice himself. That will be the Suns. However, Durant's involvement
in this process, he and his agency representation that will
(10:14):
likely influence what the offers are from those other teams.
For example, would the Heat be willing to throw in
collel Ware, who had a very promising rookie season. That
probably depends on whether Durant is willing to sign an
extension in Miami, which I'm sort of skeptical that he
would because it doesn't look to me like the Miami
Heat are Kevin Durant away from title contention even in
(10:38):
a weak Eastern Conference. And so if Durant isn't willing
to put his signature on a document this summer to
turn that one year into two or three, then I
don't know if it makes sense for the Heat to
bid all out with a promising young prospect such as
collel Where. And so that's where we are now, and
(10:59):
negotiations are picking up simply from the standpoint of and
it's more negotiations in my opinion, between the Suns and
other teams, because the connections between Durant and the Rockets
have been there for a long time, and now we
know from Kelly Eco's reporting back on June third, that
there's a price where the Rockets would do it. It's
just a matter of whether that works for the Suns.
Now the Suns are trying to see what other options
(11:20):
there are in terms of what would work for KD.
And you know, maybe one of these other teams is
willing to do what the Toronto Raptors did in twenty eighteen,
and they did win a title out of it, even
though Toronto wasn't on the so called list of desired
destidations for Kawhi Leonard and San Antonio, Toronto did it
and they ended up winning a title they called the Bluff,
And well, I guess it wasn't the bluff because they
(11:42):
did leave a year later, but that they certainly don't
regret it because they won the title in twenty nineteen,
So maybe that plays into this as well. Maybe there's
a wild card, and Shams has mentioned that possibility that's
not even among the so called top five or top
three that swoops in and gets the deal done. But
I think the Houston possibility, it's been there all along.
And now what the Sons are doing will negotiating with
(12:03):
these other teams, negotiating with Katie and his team and saying, hey,
are there other teams beyond the Rockets and Spurs where
KD would be willing to sign an extension If not,
what would those other teams be willing to bid in
a scenario where they're only getting one guaranteed year of
Kevin Durant. And then they'll make a decision once they
(12:25):
get to a point in which there are consequences to waiting,
And in the next few days we're reaching that point
because with the draft now eleven days away, there are
consequences to getting too close to the draft and acquiring
a pick such as the number ten that the Rockets
own actually from the Suns based on that Brooklyn Draft
deal they did this time a year ago. If you
(12:48):
don't do the deal soon, you're not going to be
able to maximize the value of that pick because you're
not going to be able to do your pre draft
scouting processes and interviews and so on and so forth.
The Suns have reshaped their front office and that adds
another layer of unpredictability to this. You've got a relatively
new owner, you've got a new GM, so in terms
of what are they willing to do in these negotiations,
(13:12):
there's some volatility there. But also you know, if you're
an owner and you invest heavily in bringing in a
new GM, a new coach or reshaping basketball operations. Then yeah,
you want to give these guys the opportunity to actually
go through the pre draft process and give them the
best chance possible to pick the player that they think
(13:32):
is going to work best for them long term. That's
where I think we're at now. It's basically a standoff
in which KD wants the Rockets. I think Minnesota in particular.
I'm sketchic call on Miami because I don't think they're
a Kevin Durant away from title contention. But Minnesota, I
do think if you add KD to Anthony Edwards that
gets intriguing. But Minnesota is probably reluctant to bid super
(13:56):
heavily if Kevin isn't willing to extend, And we haven't
had any leaks that Kevin is interested in Minnesota. So
I think Minnesota is wanting KD to want them, ie
be willing to sign an extension, be happy there, buy
in on that partnership with Anthony Edwards. And then Phoenix
is either wanting Kevin Durant to expand his list, in
(14:20):
other words, be open to a destination such as Minnesota
or Miami. That's not the Rockets because if he does that,
it probably opens up a pathway to Minnesota or to
Phoenix getting more in a trade from a team such
as Minnesota, or they simply want to leverage or try
and leverage Houston into paying more. To me, that's the standoff,
and I put this on my Blue Sky page this morning,
(14:41):
Saturday the fourteenth. Katie wants the Rockets, Minnesota wants KD
to want them. Phoenix either wants KAD to expand his
list or for Houston to pay more in its bid.
In my opinion, the Rockets position is the same as
it was ten eleven days ago, and probably the same
for months before that. There's interest, but it's at a
relatively low price point. I don't think anything has changed
(15:02):
in the last couple of weeks, other than we're getting
to a point in which there's something of a deadline
for the Suns. They want to get this deal done
at the latest, it sounds like by a week before
the draft, so that they can go through their own
processes with whatever picks they get out of this deal.
And so things are entering the final stages, not necessarily
because the Rockets are heating up their negotiations or offering more. No,
(15:25):
it's just the Sun's got to figure this out one
way or another. Obviously, Kevin's not going to be on
their roster next year, and so now they're just trying
to make the best choice they can and to move on.
They've got their GM, they've got their coach, and the
draft is getting closed. They just want closure. And so
that's where I think we're at entering this weekend. And
(15:48):
as far as what's going to happen, the phrase I
would use for my conversations around the Rockets is cautious optimism.
They're hopeful. There's definitely interest, but it's not a gibbet.
We have seen some examples in these types of standoffs
before where the player doesn't win. Now, the hope is
that with Kevin being only one year out until his
(16:11):
free agency, that that gives him even more leverage than
a star that has say two or three years left
on his contract. But there have been some examples lately
of the team winning out, and there's actually one that
involves the Rockets. If you recall the twenty seventeen offseason,
after the Rockets acquired Chris Paul and Paradim with James
Harden in late June. The Rockets wanted Carmelo Anthony, but
(16:36):
there was this standoff of do the Rockets have assets
that work for the Knicks. The next didn't want to
take the contract of Ryan Anderson as matching salary, and
so this drug out for a few months. The only
real deadline was training camp, and what ended up happening
was Mellow expanded his list to the Oklahoma City Thunder,
(16:56):
who had matching salary that was more polait for the Knicks,
and that's what got the deal done. And then I
mentioned Kawhi Leonard in twenty eighteen. The Toronto Raptors were
not on his list when Kawhi was running out of
San Antonio, but they just took the risk and said, hey,
we think we can win a title if we get
this guy. We'll worry about everything else later, and then
they did win a title. Usually in the player empowerment era,
(17:21):
the player gets what he wants, and Kevin Durant's one
of the top fifteen players of all time. In my opinion,
I think he has even more leverage than most behind
the scenes. He's a powerful guy. But it's not a given.
There have been star players that haven't gotten their way before,
even with just one year left on their contracts, and
Phoenix is very unpredictable, relatively new owner, brand new GM.
(17:44):
There's not much of a track record here. I think
the Rockets they feel like KD wants to be here,
and with that in mind, especially with the only other
team that we know, he'd be okay. With the Spurs
seemingly not being in the bidding, at least not aggressively
in these late stages, there's hope that Kevin can leverage
(18:04):
his way here, but it's not a given. There are
recent examples, and I think some of this is going
to depend on where the information comes from. In terms
of trying to read the tea leaves. All these Sham's
reports list the Rockets first. I think that's because he's
talking to Kevin Durant's people at boardroom. Rich Climban is
this guy. I think. Zachlowe reported late Friday night early
(18:27):
Saturday morning that he was hearing Zachloa and his The
Ringer podcast with Bill Simmons said that he's hearing the
most buzz about the Timberwolves with the Rockets at number two.
I'm guessing that's coming from the Suns because with Phoenix.
They know Houston is there. Houston has always been there,
and that's where Kevin wants to be. What they want
is to create a bidding board. They want more teams
(18:50):
to be viable, either for Kevin to go there because
that team is willing to bid more than Houston. Maybe
the Timberwolves are willing to use I guess they sort
of have to Rudy gob and perhaps the Suns want
to stay relevant with Devin Booker, or maybe they can
find a third team to reabroute Rudy Gobertou and get
some good assets that way recent Defensive Player of the Year.
(19:10):
The bottom line from a Sun's perspective, regardless of whether
they actually want to send Durrant to a team that's
not Houston because they don't like the Houston offer, or
maybe it's they want it to seem like they're gonna
send Kevin to a team that's not Houston because they
want to scare Houston into giving up more assets. And
(19:32):
maybe you buy into the theory that the Suns really
want to deal with the Rockets because Houston has you know,
they're twenty five, twenty seven to twenty nine draft picks.
Either way, it behooves the Suns to hype up destinations
that aren't the Rockets, either because they don't like the
Rockets assets or because they want to try and leverage
the Rockets into giving up more. Either way, I think
(19:52):
the reports out of Phoenix are gonna hype up teams
that aren't Houston. I think reports that are sourced from
the rant side of the fence are going to hype
up the Rockets. And there's also this report from the
Sun's beat writer the Arizona Republic, Jayne Rank and I
believe is his name, cited the league source as saying
that the Rockets are the quote ideal destination for KD.
(20:14):
I would bet anything that league source is Rich Climban
or someone very close to him. I think that's where
these negotiations are right now. Everybody's sort of playing a
game of chicken, and we'll see what happens open the
next twenty four or forty eight seventy two hours. I
really don't think it's going to go on much longer
than that, because the Suns do want to go through
their pre draft processes. I think it could happen. I
(20:37):
don't think it's a given, and I think There's a
lot of volatility here, especially with the Suns being so
unproven at the top ranks of their organization. The GM ownership,
that adds another layer of unpredictability here that maybe it
works well for the Rockets, maybe it doesn't. But anybody
who's betting a lot of money at this stage, I
(20:59):
think that's I think that would be misguided, because this
could go any number of directions. I think the Rockets
are in the game and they're interested, but whether it
actually happens time will tell, and that time probably is
not going to be all that long. Now, that's the
state of play in terms of the negotiations and what
(21:22):
I think is actually happening. To close out this spot,
I want to address what I'm saying more of on
social media, which is the debate of should it happen?
Because for all the strengths of Kevin Durant, he's still
an all star level player, one of the greatest of
all time. He's going to turn thirty seven later this year,
and the Rockets would be giving up at least one
(21:43):
member of their young core. These seven first round picks
from the last four NBA draft cycles and two if
you count the twenty twenty five pick and you want
to call this a core eight. I think that's a
little bit of a stretch, but I guess you could
argue that. And with those guys all being I think
twenty three years old or younger, well twenty four in
the case of Charry Easton, but I don't think he's
(22:05):
in these discussions at all, then yeah, there's some sticker
shock to trading assets from that stockpile for a thirty
six year old Kevin Durant, especially when the baseline scenario
is as high as it is, which you just finished
up a season at fifty two and thirty number two
in the West, and so you could easily argue you
just stay the course, let this young core continue to
marinate and be patient. I get it. That's an absolutely
(22:29):
fair argument to make. The reason that I'm generally in
favor if the price is right of a Kevin Durant trade,
you need to look at it from both the boom
and the bust versions of what could happen. And I
think that's even more true here with Kevin being at
(22:50):
thirty six years old. So the boom scenario, I think
it's pretty clear you were fifty two and thirty as is.
If you replace Dylan Brook or Jalen Green and your
starting lineup with Kevin Durant for a team that's already
fifty two and thirty number two in the West. I
have no doubt that you beat the Warriors you took
to seven games as is. I think you probably beat
(23:11):
the Timberwolves in the second round as well. You probably
don't beat the Thunder in the Western Conference finals, but
you're at least there. You're in the conversation, and in
terms of projecting out to next year, I think you'd
be that team right behind the Thunder. And if you
get another leap from either Aman Thompson or all for
In Shongoon, who I don't think would be in these
(23:32):
talks no matter what, then that could put you over
the top. The way the Rockets are looking at this,
I said on the pod on June fourth, at Kevin
Durant trade at the right price point. It opens your
contending window earlier, but it doesn't shut it any sooner
because you're not giving up assets that are significant enough
(23:52):
to radically transform your timeline. So that's the Boom scenario.
You could legitimately get to championship contention as soon as
next season. Now the bus scenario, and yet thirty six
years old soon to be thirty seven. You definitely have
to keep this in mind. It's entirely possible that twenty
(24:14):
twenty six Kevin Durant becomes twenty seventeen twenty eighteen Carmelo Anthony.
To use the analogy that I cited in the first segment,
we were all hyped on Carmelo in the twenty seventeen offseason,
and then as mentioned, he relented and expanded his list
to include Oklahoma City at the last minute, and the
next traded him there. Well, what ended up happening is
(24:37):
that he just wasn't that good period. He got past
his prime, and while he was still a bucket quote unquote,
he no longer had the juice to be particularly efficient.
He couldn't defend at a high level. He just wasn't
a winning player anymore. And then we all know what happened.
His market was so low that he signed at the
(24:59):
minimum with the rock It's the next offseason and then
got basically told to stay away from the team after
ten days and eventually released or traded way same thing
as a release it can happen quickly with aging stars
that are very ball dominant. It hasn't happened even a
little bit for Kevin Durant. Yet. Let's be clear, he
(25:20):
was still a fifty to forty ninety shooting guy last
year Elite Player All Star. There are no signs to
this point that Kevin Durant is about to go down
the Carmelo Anthony road from twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen.
But it's not impossible at his age, and so you
have to acknowledge the bus scenario there. Now, the flip side,
(25:43):
with sports science becoming so advanced these days, look guys,
especially the elite ones, that prioritize taking care of their bodies,
and I think compared to Mellow, that's something that Kevin
puts even more of a priority on. We are seeing
primes extend. Lebron James is playing well into his forties.
(26:03):
Tom Brady played until he's forty five. Now, I know,
being a quarterback the athletic requirements are not the same
as being a star in the NBA. But I just
mention that example and it's not apples to Apple. So no,
I'm not saying I expect Kevin Durant to play until
forty five, that's crazy. But could he have two or
three really good years still left. Yeah, it's possible, And
(26:25):
so that goes into the boom equation. Maybe he lifts
you at the title contention next year and you get
to watch one of the best players in NBA history
play for your franchise. There's value in that, and maybe
it lasts a couple more years after that and the
extension proves worthwhile and it's something of a bridge until
someone like a Men Thompson or Reed Shepherd, whoever it
(26:47):
may be, is able to take the reins as your
primary offensive engine and playmaker a few years from now.
That's the boom scenario and it's in play, but the
bust scenario it's vallid as well, and we have to
consider it like. He's at an age in which not
too many players historically have played at an elite level
with this much age, this much mileage on them. So yeah,
(27:10):
there's a risk and it could go either way. And
with his age, the volatility in either direction is higher
than usual, and so for folks that are risk averse,
and if you're really high on the young core as is,
I understand not wanting to do a Kevin Durant trade,
or it making you a little bit queasy, I get it.
(27:31):
But the reason that I'm on board if the price
is right, the Rockets have a luxury of the young
core being as deep as it is. Seven first round
picks from the last four draft cycles eight if you
count this one, you can lose one or two of
those guys. And if it's not a men, Thompson are
all per Inch and Goon. I don't think it dramatically
(27:53):
changes your long term outlook the way I look at it.
Let's play the if something happened. I was thinking about
this earlier on my morning walk, and imagine if you
read a report that in the off season or in
training camp that a player on the Rockets tears his
(28:14):
achilles or tears as acl Because in the contact sport
at the highest level, this is a risk, this happens.
Imagine if something happens and one of your young guys
has a career altering injury, not a career threatening injury,
because with medical science being what it is these days,
(28:36):
generally players are able to come back. But let's say
it costs them at least a season, and then there
are questions as to if for when they get back
to peak form, But more so, what does it mean
on the financial side? Can you build a contender with
a player on your books who's giving you either nothing
or significantly less than they otherwise would because they've suffered
(29:01):
an injury because something happened for me. The only two
guys if somebody just had a freak fall at training camp,
and this happens in professional sports at the highest level,
the only two guys that I would feel traumatically different
about from a team perspective in terms of the outlet
(29:21):
for the Rockets would be a man or Shingoom. I
think other guys, certainly you'd feel terrible for them individually.
It would be awful. God forbid this happens to anybody.
You want everybody to be healthy. But let's use Jalen
Green and Jabari Smith Junior as examples because they're the
two that have been cited as possibilities in these Kevin
Durant talks. Now, I want to be clear I have
(29:42):
not heard either specifically from the Rockets. I mentioned them
simply because they could make sense from a salary standpoint.
The Rockets are actually very careful, not to when they
talk to reporters give names, and I understand why. The
last thing they want is these young guys to see
their name in trade rumors and worry and have this baggage,
this cloud hanging over them. No, they want them to
(30:05):
just be able to work on their games and improve.
And there's this clip that went viral this morning of
Jabari Smith going through his offseason workouts. They don't want
this cloud to be hanging over these guys. So no,
the Rockets have not specifically mentioned any of these guys,
not to me, and I don't think we've seen names
in the reporting this out there from Kelly or Schams
(30:25):
or anyone else. And that's by design. I'm just mentioning
these because they fit from a salary perspective, and reading
the tea leaves you do have to give something to
reach that forty plus million dollars salary tier that you
have to send out for Kevin Durant deal to work financially.
So if something happened to Jalen Green, it would certainly sing,
(30:49):
but I don't think it would traumatically affect how I
feel about the Rockets and the big picture, like the
way I would respond to it is. Wow, this really sucks.
But let's see what Ree Shepherd and Cam Whitmore have got.
You're gonna slide them into expanded roles and maybe one
or both of them are able to take advantage. If
something happens to Jabari Smith Junior, yeah that sucks for him,
(31:13):
and I like Jabari as a player and as a person.
But let's expand Tarry Easton's role to thirty thirty five
minutes per game, true starters minutes. Now that he's two
years removed from the stress reaction in his life, let's
play Cam Whitmore some at the forward spots. He certainly
got the physicality and the power to do it, and
there's a lot of upside there. If something were to
(31:35):
happen to one player, it would sting. But the Rockets,
they've got a luxury with the depth of this young Core,
and that's why I'm okay if it's just one of
them and maybe two, if we're talking about you know,
the twenty twenty five pick at number ten overall, or
I guess Cam Whitmore, who is in the Young Core,
but he's sort of on the fringe compared to the others.
(31:59):
If it's just one of the true young core, then
if it's not a Man or Shongoon, I think the
Rockets have enough depth that they could survive it. And
that's why I'm willing to take the upside swing with
KD and bet on that boom scenario, because even if
it went bust, I don't think it would be catastrophic
(32:21):
losing that one young player that you send out as
the asset, because again, there's risk no matter what. And
if you had to take Jalen Green off of this
team because God forbids something happened to him, or Jabari
Smith Junior, there are other options that you could turn
to to fill those minutes, and I wouldn't feel all
(32:43):
that differently. I mean, there would be questions for sure,
but I would at least see a path for the
Rockets to remain in the same tier and have a
comparable level of success as a team to what they
would have had if the injury had never happened. That's
how I sort of define that. If something happens game,
(33:03):
that's what I call it. And so if you're talking
about one player from your young core that isn't Shingoon
or a Men, it's annoying, but I don't think it's
necessarily crippling, and so that's why I'd be okay taking
the risk of the bust scenario of KD when you
(33:24):
consider the upside of the boom scenario where everything hits
and he lifts you into true title contention. Now, if
we're talking two or three guys from that young core,
and especially if it's the enter young core, then yeah,
it's different because if we're talking about multiple hypotheticals and
(33:46):
having to count on two or three unproven guys all
hitting and not having the optionality. You know, I mentioned
like Kim Whitmore is potentially an insurance policy at multiple spots.
He could be insurance policy for Jalen Green at Shooting Cart.
He could also be an insurance policy at small forward
for someone. If you're adding to the list of variables
(34:09):
and you're also inherently reducing the insurance policies, because if
you use insurance policy at one spot then you won't
have it available for another, then all of a sudden,
at that point, the downside risk becomes too much. And
so that's why I wouldn't do at least I don't
think I would Sjalen and Jabbari both unless it's some
(34:29):
sort of larger deal in which maybe you're also bringing
in some other rotation caliber player at a bare minimum,
I daily one with upside along with Kevin Durant, and
then you're sort of resetting the depth stockpile. But if
it's just one player, I think I would take the risk,
and I understand why the Rockets would, especially if it's
one player that's not Shinoun or a men and so
(34:50):
one where you know there is upside, but it's probably
limited upside at least based on what we've seen to
this point. So for me, my interest is conditional. But
if the price is low enough, that's why I do it.
And then you know, if Dylan Brooks goes in the deal. Look,
I love Dylan Brooks. He's a good veteran role player,
(35:12):
but at twenty nine years old, the upside is limited.
And I also think that we've seen from this front office,
led by rafel Stone, they are good at identifying role
players and making moves on the margins. Just look at
how creative they got to pick up Steven Adams at
the twenty twenty three the twenty four trade deadline and
how that paid dividends months later. I trust the Rockets
(35:35):
to be able to figure out how to cost efficiently
or asset efficiently fill out the back of their roster
and find capable rotation players or rotation options for relatively
cheap prices, be it in salaries, asset costs, or both.
The harder part is the star level upside. That's what
(35:55):
the Rockets are still trying to fill, be it internally
or externally. That engine that a one. And so if
you're not crippling your depth, and if the cost is
rotation players that are good but limited, like a Dylan Brooks,
then yeah, I would air on the side of bringing
(36:16):
in Kevin Durant. And there are risks with it, for sure,
but I'm okay taking the risk when the upside is, Hey,
this guy could legitimately make you a title contender as
soon as next season, and how fun would it be? Guys,
this is the thirty year anniversary when the Rockets last
won an NBA championship. It's been thirty years. I'm still
forty years old, so that's three quarters of my life
(36:39):
since the Rockets have won an NBA championship. It's been
a long time. So to be able to contend for
a championship, potentially as soon as next year, and to
have a top fifteen all time player leading your roster,
one with ties to the state of Texas. Guys, that
would be so freaking fun. And I can tell you,
having been through the last thirty years, these opportunities do
(37:02):
not always come very easily. So that's why if the
cost is low enough, yeah, I understand the risk, but
the upside to me is worth it. And one other,
one other hypothetical that I've seen tossed out that I
want to address before we close out the pod. Bill
Summons mentioned on that Zach Low podcast that I cited earlier.
Does it make sense for the Rockets to bid on
(37:24):
Kevin Durant if there's the possibility that someone like Giannis
is available a few months later. We've talked about him
as an option in the past, and while he hasn't
asked for a trade just yet, it might happen later
this offseason, it might happen during next season if the
price is lower enough. I don't think a Kevin Durant
trade takes you out of the market for Yannis at all.
(37:46):
The centerpieces of a deal for Yannis with the Bucks,
a thirty year old MVP are very different than an
MVP level player, one that's won two in recent history
and is all MBA every year. The centerpieces of a
Yanis deal would be all per in Shooon because you
need a proven young player with star level upside and
(38:06):
draft equity, unprotected equity from twenty seven onward, those really
good premium assets from teams like the Suns, the Nets,
the Mavericks that have either uncertain or bad outlooks as
things stand right now, for those years, that's still going
to be there in my opinion. If you do something
like you know, Dylan Jabari, Jack Landale, Aaron Holliday and
(38:31):
the twenty twenty five pick for Kevin Durant or Jalen
Green in place of Dylan Brooks and Jabari Smith Junior. Now,
if you're significantly cutting into that premium asset stockpile, then yeah,
I'd probably walk away. But if the price for Katie
is moderate, I would call it an annoyance. Like in
(38:53):
a perfect world, would you have as many young assets
as possible? Like, yeah, I'm sure the Bucks would probably
have some baseline level of interest in Jabari Smith. Then
I don't know, whoever the number ten pick in this
year's shraft turns into. For purposes of this conversation, I'm
gonna say Cedriac Coward just because well I am instrinked
(39:14):
in him as a prospect. But if you follow me
on social media, I'm using the hashtag shoot at Coward
for a reason. It would be absolutely funny and hilarious
for our social media culture. Also, I think the Coward
Suresey sales would be through the roof. How awesome would
it be to have a rocket shirt where obviously it
has rockets on the front and then Coward on the back.
So mostly for the lols, but also, you know, I
(39:36):
am intrigued by his game. Let's use Cedric Coward as
an example of who the pick eventually turns into. Do
you really think the Bucks are going to say, well,
you know, we really like all for inch from doing
in these premium assets, but we're not interested because you
don't have Jabari Smith and or Cedric Coward. I think
(39:56):
that's a real stretch. I think not having asset of
that tier it's a nuisance, it's annoying. It would be
easier if you had them. But if push comes to shop,
you can get creative and recoup assets at least something
close to those values in other ways. Again, I trust
for fell Stone at Eli whiteis to do moves around
(40:19):
the margins. It's the super high end assets now and
into the future. Those are the hard ones, and it's
not because Rafel as bad as his job. They're just
hard period. In the NBA, there's not that many of them,
and it's a league where high end talent typically wins out.
The same premium assets for Yannis would still be there
(40:40):
even if you do this Kevin Durant deal. So no,
I don't buy that the Rockets should wait and pass
on a KD deal because what if Yannis comes available later. Well,
for starters, it's hypothetical. We know Kevin Durant is actually
available and he's still a top fifteen all star level player,
But beyond that, the frame work for the two deals
(41:01):
are very different. And so if you can get Kevin
Durant without dipping heavily into the assets that actually appeal
to the Milwaukee Bucks in a scenario where Yannis is available,
then I don't see why you wouldn't do the KD
deal in the short term if it's available at the
right price. Again, I'm talking about worlds where the downside
(41:24):
scenarios are annoyances rather than crippling. Again, if KD goes
busted and you no longer have Jalen Green or Jabari
Smith Junior, it would certainly sting, but I don't think
it dramatically changes the long term outlook for this team.
And if you don't have Jabbari or Jalen or Cedric Cawber,
(41:46):
whoever it is, would those guys potentially help Ayana's trade. Yeah,
but I don't think they're so valuable, especially on Jalen's contract,
that they can't be replaced that it would just kill
a deal. And so for me, if the downside scenarios
(42:07):
are more annoyance than crippling, then the upside is worth it.
If you are bringing in an all star level player
that can get you at least on the fringe of
championship contention as soon as next season, and we can
go out there as a Rocket Span community and watch
one of the greatest players in NBA history hoop for
(42:28):
our team and be the A one on a team
that would probably enter as the number two squad in
the Western Conference because obviously they're coming off a second
place finish, and now you potentially bring in Kevin Durant.
For me, when the downside scenario is more annoying than crippling,
then I'm good with that upside scenario. And that's why,
if the cost is right, I think I want Kevin Durant.
(42:53):
All right, one last little thing I want to throw
out before we wind down the pod. And this is
just a small rant on my part. So if you
want to tune out now, feel free. This is not Intel,
This is just my soapbox. Stop listening and giving any
credence to the betting odds. I saw a lot of
talk last Friday that, oh, Kevin Durant must be going
(43:14):
to Minnesota, because now the odds have swung wildly in
favor of the Timberwolves and the Rockets are fourth guys. Literally,
twenty four hours ago, the Spurs were heavy favorites and
now they're off the board. Nine times out of ten,
betting odds are simply fans that are bored, that have
too much money, reading the same reports and just making
(43:36):
speculative guesses as to what they're actually going to mean.
There are rare occasions, like before the twenty twenty two
draft with the Powell Bankiro odds to go number one
instead of Jabbari with the Magic. There are extremely rare
occasions where there actually is intel and a secret community
(43:56):
that really knows, but nine times out of ten that's
not the case. Nine times out of ten, it's just
people reading the tea leaves, seeing the speculation from guys
like Steven A. Smith and what have you on the
national shows, and just putting their money down, and many
times it's ill advised. And the lines again are about
(44:18):
minimizing liability for Vegas. People always say Vegas knows, no,
I mean, Vegas is responding for the most part. There
are some situations, some exceptions, but generally Vegas is responding
to the interests that they see from the marketplace, and
they're going to move the line heavy in favor of
(44:39):
Minnesota if all these bets on the timber Wolves are
coming in, because if they keep Minnesota as the number
three or number four team, and that eventually happens and
you have all these teams or all these people, excuse me,
betting on Minnesota at plus five hundred or whatever it is,
then that's going to be a massive liability for them
to pay out Vegas is first and foremost about minimizing
(45:02):
its potential liabilities, and so in these transaction betting windows, no,
they usually don't have super secret intel, and most of
the people betting don't. They're reading the same reports that
we are, and Vegas is simply shifting the lines based
on where the money is coming in. That's what's going on.
(45:23):
And so if the betting line movement matches what you're
seeing in the reporting, then sure that's significant. But then
you also see it at the reporting. To my knowledge,
we have not seen that in the reporting. So if
it's just the line moving, then it's typically and we
see this a lot like it's wish casting. People want
(45:46):
Katie to go to a team with an established star,
like the Spurs with Wemby or the Timber Bowls and
Anthony Edwards. It's just more fun to talk about. It
fits into And maybe this isn't even the model anymore
with how the Pacers and Thunder are playing in the finals.
But you know, this two to three star super team model,
which has been all the bass for the last twenty
thirty years of NBA basketball. Maybe longer it's easier to
(46:09):
put KD on the Timberwolves or the Spurs and type
that lineup in on social media and get more clicks
and get more engagement as opposed to putting on a
Houston team which has a lot of nice pieces but
no established top tier stars. It's just not as sexy,
and so those other destinations get more talk that ultimately
(46:33):
leads to more interest in the betting markets. But no,
you shouldn't panic unless it's also matched by the reporting,
which it's not. Again, we just saw two days ago
the Spurs being the heavy favorite and now they're not
even on the board. It's about the actual reporting, the
actual information. Now, there are rare exceptions, like the Powell
(46:54):
Binkiro Magic pre draft thing from a couple of years ago,
but those are rare exceptions. And also the movement there
was way more significant than what we've seen here. So
just besides it being a rare exception, the extent of
the movement also suggested that there actually was something very
(47:14):
unusual there. Just moderate moves. Somebody going from you know,
plus four hundred to minus one ten. I mean, it's
a little bit of a move, but it's nowhere near
you know, the Powlo thing, where you went from like
I want to say plus sixteen hundred to minus sixteen hundred,
like the moves were just crazy, just unprecedented. But more importantly,
(47:36):
it's just that's a one in ten maybe one in
one hundred scenario. The vast majority of the time, the
betting odds are a lagging indicator. They are people responding
to the same reports, the same tidbits that you and
I are reading on our social media feeds. So please
do not get too high or too low based on
(47:57):
the betting odds. Those are lagging indicators. Read the reports
from certainly shams to the ESPN, but local reporters in Phoenix,
other markets, people in Houston. Kelly Eco at the Athletic
does a great job, and he first broke this as
I see it eleven days ago, the fact that there's
a clear pathway for the rockets Undurant to actually work out.
(48:17):
Follow the reports, do not follow the betting lines. That
would be my advice. And with that, I'll bring my
soapbox and this episode to a close. All right. That'll
do it for this Saturday the fourteenth. If you want
more content before our next episode, which will probably be
reacting to the Kevin Durant trade, whether it's with the
Rockets or another team. The best place to hear from
me is on social media. I'm on Blue Sky at
(48:38):
Vendubo's and this show, the logger Line and the Rockets Wire,
the USA Today Blog around the Editor. Those are on
Twitter slash x at those handles, the logger Line, the
Rockets Wire, and also if you go to the logger
Line the podcast page on Twitter slash x, hipolink tree.
In the bio, you can find links to adeditribution partners, Apple,
Google and Spotify. Subscribe to Pods of Review if you've
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(49:00):
those friends, partners and sponsors and keep this podcast running
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If those links consume their content again, that's another way
we can look good to all the relevant entities and
keep this podcast running as one of the most active
ones covering Houston Rockets basketball. All Right, with the plots complete,
(49:22):
I will finally adjourn on this Saturday, June fourteenth. Again,
I'm Benju Bo's appreciate you all so much for tuning in,
and please come back soon for more new episodes of
the Loggern Line Go Rockets,
Cheers.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Rockets fans, Welcome to The lagger Line, an exclusive podcast
from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven ninety
The logger Line. It's proudly served to you by car
Box Clutch City lagger It is good Yeah, Red Nation,
(00:23):
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Welcome aboard.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
What's Up, Ladies and joe Lyn Welcome to a special
weekend episode of The logger Line, as always served to
you courtesy of Carbox Brewing. I'm your host, Ben Jubo's
editor of USA Today's Rocket Squire, a contributor to Sports
Talk seven ninety, official flagship redization of your Houston Rockets.
We're doing this weekend mini episode because there have been
(01:00):
reports published in the last twenty four hours or so
that the Kevin Durant trade negotiations, which the Rockets still
appear to be in on, are entering their final stages,
with a deal possible in the next few days. The
Sun's going through their offers from teams such as the Rockets,
the Miami Heat, the Minnesota Timberwolves, perhaps the San Antonio Spurs,
and New York Knicks, although recent reportings suggest that they're
(01:23):
a lot less likely at this point in time. So
I'm gonna catch you up on where I think the
negotiations actually are somewhat My winning of the tea leaves
somewhat sourced just educated guesses for the most part on
my part, on where things stand on midday Saturday the fourteenth,
and where I think things are likely to go over
(01:45):
the next couple of days as the negotiations enter their
final stages. And then I'm going to go through the
reasons to do the deal, the reasons not to do
the deal, and why assuming the cost is reasonable, I
am generally in support of this. So let's start with
the state of play, because I think it's becoming very
(02:05):
clear the Rockets are where Kevin Durant wants to be,
at least among the three teams that are being talked
about by ESPN Sean Sherania, that's the Rockets, the Heat,
the Timberwolves. It's been reported that Katie wants to be
in Texas. Obviously, he played his college ball at UT
still has a lot of ties to the state in Houston,
(02:26):
the as direct ties to Ima Udoka orre al Ivy
now DJ Augustein in the front office, there's lots of
reasons that Katie would want to be here, and that's
before going into the street that the team, which just
finished off at fifty two to thirty season, fourth best
record in the NBA, second best in the Western Conference,
and Katie still an All Star even at thirty six
years old, could perhaps put the Rockets into that true
(02:49):
contention tier as soon as next season. So there's reasons
for Katie to want the Rockets. There were also reports
that he was interested in the Spurs as well. With
San Antonio Abbie even closer to Austin, where he played
his college ball. But the Spurs are quite as close
from a timeline perspective as the Rockets are, and I
think that's why it looks like they're dropping back in
(03:11):
the bidding, because they have less of an incentive than
the Rockets do to pay a price that would be
acceptable for the Suns. So if the Spurs aren't willing
to bid at an acceptable level and Katie wants to
be in Texas, then Houston is the spot, at least
(03:32):
in terms of his wish list, and so I think
that's why every report from Schams ever since he started
listing teams a few days ago, has had Houston as
the first team out of his mouth. He's done several
TV spots, a couple of stories online, and in every
one of them, if you listen to the ordering of
(03:52):
the teams, the Rockets are the first team that he mentions.
That's not a coincidence. It's in my opinion, because that's
where at his representation want to be out of the
realistic options. And I'm not going to go too deep
into the possibilities for the Rockets because honestly, I don't
(04:12):
think a lot has changed since June third. There was
this report from Kelly Eco of the Athletic and I
had a pod reacting to it the next day on
June fourth. You can find it in our archives and
I'll read you the original report from Kelly eleven days
ago on the third of June. I really don't think
much has changed from a Houston perspective here. This is
(04:32):
not to say the Rockets and Suns are not in communication.
Phoenix is aggressive in pursuit of trading Kevin Durant and
regaining control of their draft capital, starting with the number
ten pick in June's draft. Since the end of the season,
Houston has filded several calls from Phoenix, who have since
gradually lowered their asking price for Durant. There is a
price in which the Rockets would be interested, but with
(04:53):
fear of breaking up their roster for a thirty six
year old coming off injury, doubt remains over a deal materializing.
I said it at the time and I stand by it.
The key phrase there there is a price where the
Rockets would be interested. That was always when we talked
about this hypothetical for months, going back to the trade deadline.
(05:15):
When you have to match salaries for a guy that's
going to be making over fifty million dollars, is there
a point in which there's actually a financially feasible path
that would work for the Rockets. It seems there is,
and with that in mind, they are a viable destination,
and I talked about it on that pod. I'm not
(05:35):
going to go through the financial math nearly as much today,
but most likely it's either Jalen Green as the primary
salary matching piece or Dylan Brooks, and then one of
Javari Smith Junior or Reed Shepherd, one of your young
prospects making about ten to twelve million dollars a year.
Dylan at twenty two. The bottom line, you need to
(05:56):
get in the vicinity of thirty five million dollars from
next year's payroll. Jalen will be at a little over
thirty three, so he would do it alone with Dylan.
It would have to be in combination with someone else.
But you have about thirteen million in expiring salaries between
jacqu Landell and Air Holiday. That would get you again
to thirteen and then you need to get to you know,
(06:18):
the mid to upper forties in order for a deal
to work financially for Kevin Durant and the load to
mid fifties. The question is how you do that last
thirty five million or so. Jalen could come very close
to doing it by himself. If it's not Jalen, then
Dylan and either Jabari or Read that's the most likely path.
(06:38):
And Kelly reported on the third that there is a
price where the Rockets would be interested, i e. One
that's financially feasible, and so it just depends on whether
the Suns see that as a deal that's worth doing
for them. And now we're entering the closing stages because
if the Suns are going to get a pick in
(06:59):
the twenty twenty five first round as part of this deal,
And I think if it's the Rockets, obviously the number
ten overall would be highly likely to be in the deal.
They had a tough enough time last year finding minutes
for Reed Shepherd and Cam whitmore So, I don't think
they want to bring in another prospect to'd be blocked
from NBA playing time. Then it behooves the Suns to
do a deal a week to ten days before the draft,
(07:22):
because that allows them to actually go through scouting processes
and bring guys to their facility for interviews, and to
actually maximize the value of that pick by allowing them
to do homework on what makes the most sense. For months,
it's been talked about that the draft is something of
a deadline, because getting a twenty twenty five pick and
(07:43):
doing something of a reset in terms of the timeline
for the Suns would make sense. Well, in a vague sense. Yes,
you'd probably want a twenty twenty five draft pick, and
you'd want to make the pick yourself as opposed to
have it selected for you by somebody else. But really
it's not the first round of the draft on June
twenty fifth. Really, it's that window where we are now,
(08:07):
we're eleven days out from the first round. That's the
sweet spot because then you have time to actually go
through the draft process yourself and bring some of these
guys to your facilities for workouts, interviews, whatever the case
may be. So that's why in the last forty eight
to seventy two hours you've seen reports that these negotiations
are entering the final stages. I don't think there's a
(08:29):
ton of negotiating going on from a Rockets perspective. I
think the offer that's out there and what they're willing
to do is pretty much the same now as it
was ten or eleven days ago. It's more the Suns
have this incentive to get to the finish line with
these negotiations, and the Rockets are always there. Once it
was confirmed there's a price that works, they're certainly in
(08:50):
the equation. The Suns are also trying to see what
other options are from other teams across the NBA, and
then they'll compare those offers amongst themselves. They'll obviously work
work with KD and his agency representation to ideally find
something that's satisfactory to them, because I think to get
peak value Ideally, the team that's trading for Durant would
(09:12):
also be open to signing him to a contract extension,
and conversely, Durant being willing to sign a contract extension
because he wants to be there. Otherwise, would the team
bid peak value for a guy who's entering the final
year of his contract and conceivably could leave you for
no compensation in a year, I don't know. So it
behooves the Sons and Durant to work together on a
(09:32):
destination that's platable for both sides, and then we'll see
at the end of this process what those offers are.
And you know, the Sons will make the final choice themselves,
but what those vital offers are will depend, in my opinion,
on this back and forth negotiation between the Suns, KD
(09:53):
and his representation, the teams involved, and what KD is
or isn't willing to do when it comes to a
contract extension, and any other factors within his control with
that team. It's not that Katie will make the final
choice himself. That will be the Suns. However, Durant's involvement
in this process, he and his agency representation that will
(10:14):
likely influence what the offers are from those other teams.
For example, would the Heat be willing to throw in
collel Ware, who had a very promising rookie season. That
probably depends on whether Durant is willing to sign an
extension in Miami, which I'm sort of skeptical that he
would because it doesn't look to me like the Miami
Heat are Kevin Durant away from title contention even in
(10:38):
a weak Eastern Conference. And so if Durant isn't willing
to put his signature on a document this summer to
turn that one year into two or three, then I
don't know if it makes sense for the Heat to
bid all out with a promising young prospect such as
collel Where. And so that's where we are now, and
(10:59):
negotiations are picking up simply from the standpoint of and
it's more negotiations in my opinion, between the Suns and
other teams, because the connections between Durant and the Rockets
have been there for a long time, and now we
know from Kelly Eco's reporting back on June third, that
there's a price where the Rockets would do it. It's
just a matter of whether that works for the Suns.
Now the Suns are trying to see what other options
(11:20):
there are in terms of what would work for KD.
And you know, maybe one of these other teams is
willing to do what the Toronto Raptors did in twenty eighteen,
and they did win a title out of it, even
though Toronto wasn't on the so called list of desired
destidations for Kawhi Leonard and San Antonio, Toronto did it
and they ended up winning a title they called the Bluff,
And well, I guess it wasn't the bluff because they
(11:42):
did leave a year later, but that they certainly don't
regret it because they won the title in twenty nineteen,
So maybe that plays into this as well. Maybe there's
a wild card, and Shams has mentioned that possibility that's
not even among the so called top five or top
three that swoops in and gets the deal done. But
I think the Houston possibility, it's been there all along.
And now what the Sons are doing will negotiating with
(12:03):
these other teams, negotiating with Katie and his team and saying, hey,
are there other teams beyond the Rockets and Spurs where
KD would be willing to sign an extension If not,
what would those other teams be willing to bid in
a scenario where they're only getting one guaranteed year of
Kevin Durant. And then they'll make a decision once they
(12:25):
get to a point in which there are consequences to waiting,
And in the next few days we're reaching that point
because with the draft now eleven days away, there are
consequences to getting too close to the draft and acquiring
a pick such as the number ten that the Rockets
own actually from the Suns based on that Brooklyn Draft
deal they did this time a year ago. If you
(12:48):
don't do the deal soon, you're not going to be
able to maximize the value of that pick because you're
not going to be able to do your pre draft
scouting processes and interviews and so on and so forth.
The Suns have reshaped their front office and that adds
another layer of unpredictability to this. You've got a relatively
new owner, you've got a new GM, so in terms
of what are they willing to do in these negotiations,
(13:12):
there's some volatility there. But also you know, if you're
an owner and you invest heavily in bringing in a
new GM, a new coach or reshaping basketball operations. Then yeah,
you want to give these guys the opportunity to actually
go through the pre draft process and give them the
best chance possible to pick the player that they think
(13:32):
is going to work best for them long term. That's
where I think we're at now. It's basically a standoff
in which KD wants the Rockets. I think Minnesota in particular.
I'm sketchic call on Miami because I don't think they're
a Kevin Durant away from title contention. But Minnesota, I
do think if you add KD to Anthony Edwards that
gets intriguing. But Minnesota is probably reluctant to bid super
(13:56):
heavily if Kevin isn't willing to extend, And we haven't
had any leaks that Kevin is interested in Minnesota. So
I think Minnesota is wanting KD to want them, ie
be willing to sign an extension, be happy there, buy
in on that partnership with Anthony Edwards. And then Phoenix
is either wanting Kevin Durant to expand his list, in
(14:20):
other words, be open to a destination such as Minnesota
or Miami. That's not the Rockets because if he does that,
it probably opens up a pathway to Minnesota or to
Phoenix getting more in a trade from a team such
as Minnesota, or they simply want to leverage or try
and leverage Houston into paying more. To me, that's the standoff,
and I put this on my Blue Sky page this morning,
(14:41):
Saturday the fourteenth. Katie wants the Rockets, Minnesota wants KD
to want them. Phoenix either wants KAD to expand his
list or for Houston to pay more in its bid.
In my opinion, the Rockets position is the same as
it was ten eleven days ago, and probably the same
for months before that. There's interest, but it's at a
relatively low price point. I don't think anything has changed
(15:02):
in the last couple of weeks, other than we're getting
to a point in which there's something of a deadline
for the Suns. They want to get this deal done
at the latest, it sounds like by a week before
the draft, so that they can go through their own
processes with whatever picks they get out of this deal.
And so things are entering the final stages, not necessarily
because the Rockets are heating up their negotiations or offering more. No,
(15:25):
it's just the Sun's got to figure this out one
way or another. Obviously, Kevin's not going to be on
their roster next year, and so now they're just trying
to make the best choice they can and to move on.
They've got their GM, they've got their coach, and the
draft is getting closed. They just want closure. And so
that's where I think we're at entering this weekend. And
(15:48):
as far as what's going to happen, the phrase I
would use for my conversations around the Rockets is cautious optimism.
They're hopeful. There's definitely interest, but it's not a gibbet.
We have seen some examples in these types of standoffs
before where the player doesn't win. Now, the hope is
that with Kevin being only one year out until his
(16:11):
free agency, that that gives him even more leverage than
a star that has say two or three years left
on his contract. But there have been some examples lately
of the team winning out, and there's actually one that
involves the Rockets. If you recall the twenty seventeen offseason,
after the Rockets acquired Chris Paul and Paradim with James
Harden in late June. The Rockets wanted Carmelo Anthony, but
(16:36):
there was this standoff of do the Rockets have assets
that work for the Knicks. The next didn't want to
take the contract of Ryan Anderson as matching salary, and
so this drug out for a few months. The only
real deadline was training camp, and what ended up happening
was Mellow expanded his list to the Oklahoma City Thunder,
(16:56):
who had matching salary that was more polait for the Knicks,
and that's what got the deal done. And then I
mentioned Kawhi Leonard in twenty eighteen. The Toronto Raptors were
not on his list when Kawhi was running out of
San Antonio, but they just took the risk and said, hey,
we think we can win a title if we get
this guy. We'll worry about everything else later, and then
they did win a title. Usually in the player empowerment era,
(17:21):
the player gets what he wants, and Kevin Durant's one
of the top fifteen players of all time. In my opinion,
I think he has even more leverage than most behind
the scenes. He's a powerful guy. But it's not a given.
There have been star players that haven't gotten their way before,
even with just one year left on their contracts, and
Phoenix is very unpredictable, relatively new owner, brand new GM.
(17:44):
There's not much of a track record here. I think
the Rockets they feel like KD wants to be here,
and with that in mind, especially with the only other
team that we know, he'd be okay. With the Spurs
seemingly not being in the bidding, at least not aggressively
in these late stages, there's hope that Kevin can leverage
(18:04):
his way here, but it's not a given. There are
recent examples, and I think some of this is going
to depend on where the information comes from. In terms
of trying to read the tea leaves. All these Sham's
reports list the Rockets first. I think that's because he's
talking to Kevin Durant's people at boardroom. Rich Climban is
this guy. I think. Zachlowe reported late Friday night early
(18:27):
Saturday morning that he was hearing Zachloa and his The
Ringer podcast with Bill Simmons said that he's hearing the
most buzz about the Timberwolves with the Rockets at number two.
I'm guessing that's coming from the Suns because with Phoenix.
They know Houston is there. Houston has always been there,
and that's where Kevin wants to be. What they want
is to create a bidding board. They want more teams
(18:50):
to be viable, either for Kevin to go there because
that team is willing to bid more than Houston. Maybe
the Timberwolves are willing to use I guess they sort
of have to Rudy gob and perhaps the Suns want
to stay relevant with Devin Booker, or maybe they can
find a third team to reabroute Rudy Gobertou and get
some good assets that way recent Defensive Player of the Year.
(19:10):
The bottom line from a Sun's perspective, regardless of whether
they actually want to send Durrant to a team that's
not Houston because they don't like the Houston offer, or
maybe it's they want it to seem like they're gonna
send Kevin to a team that's not Houston because they
want to scare Houston into giving up more assets. And
(19:32):
maybe you buy into the theory that the Suns really
want to deal with the Rockets because Houston has you know,
they're twenty five, twenty seven to twenty nine draft picks.
Either way, it behooves the Suns to hype up destinations
that aren't the Rockets, either because they don't like the
Rockets assets or because they want to try and leverage
the Rockets into giving up more. Either way, I think
(19:52):
the reports out of Phoenix are gonna hype up teams
that aren't Houston. I think reports that are sourced from
the rant side of the fence are going to hype
up the Rockets. And there's also this report from the
Sun's beat writer the Arizona Republic, Jayne Rank and I
believe is his name, cited the league source as saying
that the Rockets are the quote ideal destination for KD.
(20:14):
I would bet anything that league source is Rich Climban
or someone very close to him. I think that's where
these negotiations are right now. Everybody's sort of playing a
game of chicken, and we'll see what happens open the
next twenty four or forty eight seventy two hours. I
really don't think it's going to go on much longer
than that, because the Suns do want to go through
their pre draft processes. I think it could happen. I
(20:37):
don't think it's a given, and I think There's a
lot of volatility here, especially with the Suns being so
unproven at the top ranks of their organization. The GM ownership,
that adds another layer of unpredictability here that maybe it
works well for the Rockets, maybe it doesn't. But anybody
who's betting a lot of money at this stage, I
(20:59):
think that's I think that would be misguided, because this
could go any number of directions. I think the Rockets
are in the game and they're interested, but whether it
actually happens time will tell, and that time probably is
not going to be all that long. Now, that's the
state of play in terms of the negotiations and what
(21:22):
I think is actually happening. To close out this spot,
I want to address what I'm saying more of on
social media, which is the debate of should it happen?
Because for all the strengths of Kevin Durant, he's still
an all star level player, one of the greatest of
all time. He's going to turn thirty seven later this year,
and the Rockets would be giving up at least one
(21:43):
member of their young core. These seven first round picks
from the last four NBA draft cycles and two if
you count the twenty twenty five pick and you want
to call this a core eight. I think that's a
little bit of a stretch, but I guess you could
argue that. And with those guys all being I think
twenty three years old or younger, well twenty four in
the case of Charry Easton, but I don't think he's
(22:05):
in these discussions at all, then yeah, there's some sticker
shock to trading assets from that stockpile for a thirty
six year old Kevin Durant, especially when the baseline scenario
is as high as it is, which you just finished
up a season at fifty two and thirty number two
in the West, and so you could easily argue you
just stay the course, let this young core continue to
marinate and be patient. I get it. That's an absolutely
(22:29):
fair argument to make. The reason that I'm generally in
favor if the price is right of a Kevin Durant trade,
you need to look at it from both the boom
and the bust versions of what could happen. And I
think that's even more true here with Kevin being at
(22:50):
thirty six years old. So the boom scenario, I think
it's pretty clear you were fifty two and thirty as is.
If you replace Dylan Brook or Jalen Green and your
starting lineup with Kevin Durant for a team that's already
fifty two and thirty number two in the West. I
have no doubt that you beat the Warriors you took
to seven games as is. I think you probably beat
(23:11):
the Timberwolves in the second round as well. You probably
don't beat the Thunder in the Western Conference finals, but
you're at least there. You're in the conversation, and in
terms of projecting out to next year, I think you'd
be that team right behind the Thunder. And if you
get another leap from either Aman Thompson or all for
In Shongoon, who I don't think would be in these
(23:32):
talks no matter what, then that could put you over
the top. The way the Rockets are looking at this,
I said on the pod on June fourth, at Kevin
Durant trade at the right price point. It opens your
contending window earlier, but it doesn't shut it any sooner
because you're not giving up assets that are significant enough
(23:52):
to radically transform your timeline. So that's the Boom scenario.
You could legitimately get to championship contention as soon as
next season. Now the bus scenario, and yet thirty six
years old soon to be thirty seven. You definitely have
to keep this in mind. It's entirely possible that twenty
(24:14):
twenty six Kevin Durant becomes twenty seventeen twenty eighteen Carmelo Anthony.
To use the analogy that I cited in the first segment,
we were all hyped on Carmelo in the twenty seventeen offseason,
and then as mentioned, he relented and expanded his list
to include Oklahoma City at the last minute, and the
next traded him there. Well, what ended up happening is
(24:37):
that he just wasn't that good period. He got past
his prime, and while he was still a bucket quote unquote,
he no longer had the juice to be particularly efficient.
He couldn't defend at a high level. He just wasn't
a winning player anymore. And then we all know what happened.
His market was so low that he signed at the
(24:59):
minimum with the rock It's the next offseason and then
got basically told to stay away from the team after
ten days and eventually released or traded way same thing
as a release it can happen quickly with aging stars
that are very ball dominant. It hasn't happened even a
little bit for Kevin Durant. Yet. Let's be clear, he
(25:20):
was still a fifty to forty ninety shooting guy last
year Elite Player All Star. There are no signs to
this point that Kevin Durant is about to go down
the Carmelo Anthony road from twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen.
But it's not impossible at his age, and so you
have to acknowledge the bus scenario there. Now, the flip side,
(25:43):
with sports science becoming so advanced these days, look guys,
especially the elite ones, that prioritize taking care of their bodies,
and I think compared to Mellow, that's something that Kevin
puts even more of a priority on. We are seeing
primes extend. Lebron James is playing well into his forties.
(26:03):
Tom Brady played until he's forty five. Now, I know,
being a quarterback the athletic requirements are not the same
as being a star in the NBA. But I just
mention that example and it's not apples to Apple. So no,
I'm not saying I expect Kevin Durant to play until
forty five, that's crazy. But could he have two or
three really good years still left. Yeah, it's possible, And
(26:25):
so that goes into the boom equation. Maybe he lifts
you at the title contention next year and you get
to watch one of the best players in NBA history
play for your franchise. There's value in that, and maybe
it lasts a couple more years after that and the
extension proves worthwhile and it's something of a bridge until
someone like a Men Thompson or Reed Shepherd, whoever it
(26:47):
may be, is able to take the reins as your
primary offensive engine and playmaker a few years from now.
That's the boom scenario and it's in play, but the
bust scenario it's vallid as well, and we have to
consider it like. He's at an age in which not
too many players historically have played at an elite level
with this much age, this much mileage on them. So yeah,
(27:10):
there's a risk and it could go either way. And
with his age, the volatility in either direction is higher
than usual, and so for folks that are risk averse,
and if you're really high on the young core as is,
I understand not wanting to do a Kevin Durant trade,
or it making you a little bit queasy, I get it.
(27:31):
But the reason that I'm on board if the price
is right, the Rockets have a luxury of the young
core being as deep as it is. Seven first round
picks from the last four draft cycles eight if you
count this one, you can lose one or two of
those guys. And if it's not a men, Thompson are
all per Inch and Goon. I don't think it dramatically
(27:53):
changes your long term outlook the way I look at it.
Let's play the if something happened. I was thinking about
this earlier on my morning walk, and imagine if you
read a report that in the off season or in
training camp that a player on the Rockets tears his
(28:14):
achilles or tears as acl Because in the contact sport
at the highest level, this is a risk, this happens.
Imagine if something happens and one of your young guys
has a career altering injury, not a career threatening injury,
because with medical science being what it is these days,
(28:36):
generally players are able to come back. But let's say
it costs them at least a season, and then there
are questions as to if for when they get back
to peak form, But more so, what does it mean
on the financial side? Can you build a contender with
a player on your books who's giving you either nothing
or significantly less than they otherwise would because they've suffered
(29:01):
an injury because something happened for me. The only two
guys if somebody just had a freak fall at training camp,
and this happens in professional sports at the highest level,
the only two guys that I would feel traumatically different
about from a team perspective in terms of the outlet
(29:21):
for the Rockets would be a man or Shingoom. I
think other guys, certainly you'd feel terrible for them individually.
It would be awful. God forbid this happens to anybody.
You want everybody to be healthy. But let's use Jalen
Green and Jabari Smith Junior as examples because they're the
two that have been cited as possibilities in these Kevin
Durant talks. Now, I want to be clear I have
(29:42):
not heard either specifically from the Rockets. I mentioned them
simply because they could make sense from a salary standpoint.
The Rockets are actually very careful, not to when they
talk to reporters give names, and I understand why. The
last thing they want is these young guys to see
their name in trade rumors and worry and have this baggage,
this cloud hanging over them. No, they want them to
(30:05):
just be able to work on their games and improve.
And there's this clip that went viral this morning of
Jabari Smith going through his offseason workouts. They don't want
this cloud to be hanging over these guys. So no,
the Rockets have not specifically mentioned any of these guys,
not to me, and I don't think we've seen names
in the reporting this out there from Kelly or Schams
(30:25):
or anyone else. And that's by design. I'm just mentioning
these because they fit from a salary perspective, and reading
the tea leaves you do have to give something to
reach that forty plus million dollars salary tier that you
have to send out for Kevin Durant deal to work financially.
So if something happened to Jalen Green, it would certainly sing,
(30:49):
but I don't think it would traumatically affect how I
feel about the Rockets and the big picture, like the
way I would respond to it is. Wow, this really sucks.
But let's see what Ree Shepherd and Cam Whitmore have got.
You're gonna slide them into expanded roles and maybe one
or both of them are able to take advantage. If
something happens to Jabari Smith Junior, yeah that sucks for him,
(31:13):
and I like Jabari as a player and as a person.
But let's expand Tarry Easton's role to thirty thirty five
minutes per game, true starters minutes. Now that he's two
years removed from the stress reaction in his life, let's
play Cam Whitmore some at the forward spots. He certainly
got the physicality and the power to do it, and
there's a lot of upside there. If something were to
(31:35):
happen to one player, it would sting. But the Rockets,
they've got a luxury with the depth of this young Core,
and that's why I'm okay if it's just one of
them and maybe two, if we're talking about you know,
the twenty twenty five pick at number ten overall, or
I guess Cam Whitmore, who is in the Young Core,
but he's sort of on the fringe compared to the others.
(31:59):
If it's just one of the true young core, then
if it's not a Man or Shongoon, I think the
Rockets have enough depth that they could survive it. And
that's why I'm willing to take the upside swing with
KD and bet on that boom scenario, because even if
it went bust, I don't think it would be catastrophic
(32:21):
losing that one young player that you send out as
the asset, because again, there's risk no matter what. And
if you had to take Jalen Green off of this
team because God forbids something happened to him, or Jabari
Smith Junior, there are other options that you could turn
to to fill those minutes, and I wouldn't feel all
(32:43):
that differently. I mean, there would be questions for sure,
but I would at least see a path for the
Rockets to remain in the same tier and have a
comparable level of success as a team to what they
would have had if the injury had never happened. That's
how I sort of define that. If something happens game,
(33:03):
that's what I call it. And so if you're talking
about one player from your young core that isn't Shingoon
or a Men, it's annoying, but I don't think it's
necessarily crippling, and so that's why I'd be okay taking
the risk of the bust scenario of KD when you
(33:24):
consider the upside of the boom scenario where everything hits
and he lifts you into true title contention. Now, if
we're talking two or three guys from that young core,
and especially if it's the enter young core, then yeah,
it's different because if we're talking about multiple hypotheticals and
(33:46):
having to count on two or three unproven guys all
hitting and not having the optionality. You know, I mentioned
like Kim Whitmore is potentially an insurance policy at multiple spots.
He could be insurance policy for Jalen Green at Shooting Cart.
He could also be an insurance policy at small forward
for someone. If you're adding to the list of variables
(34:09):
and you're also inherently reducing the insurance policies, because if
you use insurance policy at one spot then you won't
have it available for another, then all of a sudden,
at that point, the downside risk becomes too much. And
so that's why I wouldn't do at least I don't
think I would Sjalen and Jabbari both unless it's some
(34:29):
sort of larger deal in which maybe you're also bringing
in some other rotation caliber player at a bare minimum,
I daily one with upside along with Kevin Durant, and
then you're sort of resetting the depth stockpile. But if
it's just one player, I think I would take the risk,
and I understand why the Rockets would, especially if it's
one player that's not Shinoun or a men and so
(34:50):
one where you know there is upside, but it's probably
limited upside at least based on what we've seen to
this point. So for me, my interest is conditional. But
if the price is low enough, that's why I do it.
And then you know, if Dylan Brooks goes in the deal. Look,
I love Dylan Brooks. He's a good veteran role player,
(35:12):
but at twenty nine years old, the upside is limited.
And I also think that we've seen from this front office,
led by rafel Stone, they are good at identifying role
players and making moves on the margins. Just look at
how creative they got to pick up Steven Adams at
the twenty twenty three the twenty four trade deadline and
how that paid dividends months later. I trust the Rockets
(35:35):
to be able to figure out how to cost efficiently
or asset efficiently fill out the back of their roster
and find capable rotation players or rotation options for relatively
cheap prices, be it in salaries, asset costs, or both.
The harder part is the star level upside. That's what
(35:55):
the Rockets are still trying to fill, be it internally
or externally. That engine that a one. And so if
you're not crippling your depth, and if the cost is
rotation players that are good but limited, like a Dylan Brooks,
then yeah, I would air on the side of bringing
(36:16):
in Kevin Durant. And there are risks with it, for sure,
but I'm okay taking the risk when the upside is, Hey,
this guy could legitimately make you a title contender as
soon as next season, and how fun would it be? Guys,
this is the thirty year anniversary when the Rockets last
won an NBA championship. It's been thirty years. I'm still
forty years old, so that's three quarters of my life
(36:39):
since the Rockets have won an NBA championship. It's been
a long time. So to be able to contend for
a championship, potentially as soon as next year, and to
have a top fifteen all time player leading your roster,
one with ties to the state of Texas. Guys, that
would be so freaking fun. And I can tell you,
having been through the last thirty years, these opportunities do
(37:02):
not always come very easily. So that's why if the
cost is low enough, yeah, I understand the risk, but
the upside to me is worth it. And one other,
one other hypothetical that I've seen tossed out that I
want to address before we close out the pod. Bill
Summons mentioned on that Zach Low podcast that I cited earlier.
Does it make sense for the Rockets to bid on
(37:24):
Kevin Durant if there's the possibility that someone like Giannis
is available a few months later. We've talked about him
as an option in the past, and while he hasn't
asked for a trade just yet, it might happen later
this offseason, it might happen during next season if the
price is lower enough. I don't think a Kevin Durant
trade takes you out of the market for Yannis at all.
(37:46):
The centerpieces of a deal for Yannis with the Bucks,
a thirty year old MVP are very different than an
MVP level player, one that's won two in recent history
and is all MBA every year. The centerpieces of a
Yanis deal would be all per in Shooon because you
need a proven young player with star level upside and
(38:06):
draft equity, unprotected equity from twenty seven onward, those really
good premium assets from teams like the Suns, the Nets,
the Mavericks that have either uncertain or bad outlooks as
things stand right now, for those years, that's still going
to be there in my opinion. If you do something
like you know, Dylan Jabari, Jack Landale, Aaron Holliday and
(38:31):
the twenty twenty five pick for Kevin Durant or Jalen
Green in place of Dylan Brooks and Jabari Smith Junior. Now,
if you're significantly cutting into that premium asset stockpile, then yeah,
I'd probably walk away. But if the price for Katie
is moderate, I would call it an annoyance. Like in
(38:53):
a perfect world, would you have as many young assets
as possible? Like, yeah, I'm sure the Bucks would probably
have some baseline level of interest in Jabari Smith. Then
I don't know, whoever the number ten pick in this
year's shraft turns into. For purposes of this conversation, I'm
gonna say Cedriac Coward just because well I am instrinked
(39:14):
in him as a prospect. But if you follow me
on social media, I'm using the hashtag shoot at Coward
for a reason. It would be absolutely funny and hilarious
for our social media culture. Also, I think the Coward
Suresey sales would be through the roof. How awesome would
it be to have a rocket shirt where obviously it
has rockets on the front and then Coward on the back.
So mostly for the lols, but also, you know, I
(39:36):
am intrigued by his game. Let's use Cedric Coward as
an example of who the pick eventually turns into. Do
you really think the Bucks are going to say, well,
you know, we really like all for inch from doing
in these premium assets, but we're not interested because you
don't have Jabari Smith and or Cedric Coward. I think
(39:56):
that's a real stretch. I think not having asset of
that tier it's a nuisance, it's annoying. It would be
easier if you had them. But if push comes to shop,
you can get creative and recoup assets at least something
close to those values in other ways. Again, I trust
for fell Stone at Eli whiteis to do moves around
(40:19):
the margins. It's the super high end assets now and
into the future. Those are the hard ones, and it's
not because Rafel as bad as his job. They're just
hard period. In the NBA, there's not that many of them,
and it's a league where high end talent typically wins out.
The same premium assets for Yannis would still be there
(40:40):
even if you do this Kevin Durant deal. So no,
I don't buy that the Rockets should wait and pass
on a KD deal because what if Yannis comes available later. Well,
for starters, it's hypothetical. We know Kevin Durant is actually
available and he's still a top fifteen all star level player,
But beyond that, the frame work for the two deals
(41:01):
are very different. And so if you can get Kevin
Durant without dipping heavily into the assets that actually appeal
to the Milwaukee Bucks in a scenario where Yannis is available,
then I don't see why you wouldn't do the KD
deal in the short term if it's available at the
right price. Again, I'm talking about worlds where the downside
(41:24):
scenarios are annoyances rather than crippling. Again, if KD goes
busted and you no longer have Jalen Green or Jabari
Smith Junior, it would certainly sting, but I don't think
it dramatically changes the long term outlook for this team.
And if you don't have Jabbari or Jalen or Cedric Cawber,
(41:46):
whoever it is, would those guys potentially help Ayana's trade. Yeah,
but I don't think they're so valuable, especially on Jalen's contract,
that they can't be replaced that it would just kill
a deal. And so for me, if the downside scenarios
(42:07):
are more annoyance than crippling, then the upside is worth it.
If you are bringing in an all star level player
that can get you at least on the fringe of
championship contention as soon as next season, and we can
go out there as a Rocket Span community and watch
one of the greatest players in NBA history hoop for
(42:28):
our team and be the A one on a team
that would probably enter as the number two squad in
the Western Conference because obviously they're coming off a second
place finish, and now you potentially bring in Kevin Durant.
For me, when the downside scenario is more annoying than crippling,
then I'm good with that upside scenario. And that's why,
if the cost is right, I think I want Kevin Durant.
(42:53):
All right, one last little thing I want to throw
out before we wind down the pod. And this is
just a small rant on my part. So if you
want to tune out now, feel free. This is not Intel,
This is just my soapbox. Stop listening and giving any
credence to the betting odds. I saw a lot of
talk last Friday that, oh, Kevin Durant must be going
(43:14):
to Minnesota, because now the odds have swung wildly in
favor of the Timberwolves and the Rockets are fourth guys. Literally,
twenty four hours ago, the Spurs were heavy favorites and
now they're off the board. Nine times out of ten,
betting odds are simply fans that are bored, that have
too much money, reading the same reports and just making
(43:36):
speculative guesses as to what they're actually going to mean.
There are rare occasions, like before the twenty twenty two
draft with the Powell Bankiro odds to go number one
instead of Jabbari with the Magic. There are extremely rare
occasions where there actually is intel and a secret community
(43:56):
that really knows, but nine times out of ten that's
not the case. Nine times out of ten, it's just
people reading the tea leaves, seeing the speculation from guys
like Steven A. Smith and what have you on the
national shows, and just putting their money down, and many
times it's ill advised. And the lines again are about
(44:18):
minimizing liability for Vegas. People always say Vegas knows, no,
I mean, Vegas is responding for the most part. There
are some situations, some exceptions, but generally Vegas is responding
to the interests that they see from the marketplace, and
they're going to move the line heavy in favor of
(44:39):
Minnesota if all these bets on the timber Wolves are
coming in, because if they keep Minnesota as the number
three or number four team, and that eventually happens and
you have all these teams or all these people, excuse me,
betting on Minnesota at plus five hundred or whatever it is,
then that's going to be a massive liability for them
to pay out Vegas is first and foremost about minimizing
(45:02):
its potential liabilities, and so in these transaction betting windows, no,
they usually don't have super secret intel, and most of
the people betting don't. They're reading the same reports that
we are, and Vegas is simply shifting the lines based
on where the money is coming in. That's what's going on.
(45:23):
And so if the betting line movement matches what you're
seeing in the reporting, then sure that's significant. But then
you also see it at the reporting. To my knowledge,
we have not seen that in the reporting. So if
it's just the line moving, then it's typically and we
see this a lot like it's wish casting. People want
(45:46):
Katie to go to a team with an established star,
like the Spurs with Wemby or the Timber Bowls and
Anthony Edwards. It's just more fun to talk about. It
fits into And maybe this isn't even the model anymore
with how the Pacers and Thunder are playing in the finals.
But you know, this two to three star super team model,
which has been all the bass for the last twenty
thirty years of NBA basketball. Maybe longer it's easier to
(46:09):
put KD on the Timberwolves or the Spurs and type
that lineup in on social media and get more clicks
and get more engagement as opposed to putting on a
Houston team which has a lot of nice pieces but
no established top tier stars. It's just not as sexy,
and so those other destinations get more talk that ultimately
(46:33):
leads to more interest in the betting markets. But no,
you shouldn't panic unless it's also matched by the reporting,
which it's not. Again, we just saw two days ago
the Spurs being the heavy favorite and now they're not
even on the board. It's about the actual reporting, the
actual information. Now, there are rare exceptions, like the Powell
(46:54):
Binkiro Magic pre draft thing from a couple of years ago,
but those are rare exceptions. And also the movement there
was way more significant than what we've seen here. So
just besides it being a rare exception, the extent of
the movement also suggested that there actually was something very
(47:14):
unusual there. Just moderate moves. Somebody going from you know,
plus four hundred to minus one ten. I mean, it's
a little bit of a move, but it's nowhere near
you know, the Powlo thing, where you went from like
I want to say plus sixteen hundred to minus sixteen hundred,
like the moves were just crazy, just unprecedented. But more importantly,
(47:36):
it's just that's a one in ten maybe one in
one hundred scenario. The vast majority of the time, the
betting odds are a lagging indicator. They are people responding
to the same reports, the same tidbits that you and
I are reading on our social media feeds. So please
do not get too high or too low based on
(47:57):
the betting odds. Those are lagging indicators. Read the reports
from certainly shams to the ESPN, but local reporters in Phoenix,
other markets, people in Houston. Kelly Eco at the Athletic
does a great job, and he first broke this as
I see it eleven days ago, the fact that there's
a clear pathway for the rockets Undurant to actually work out.
(48:17):
Follow the reports, do not follow the betting lines. That
would be my advice. And with that, I'll bring my
soapbox and this episode to a close. All right. That'll
do it for this Saturday the fourteenth. If you want
more content before our next episode, which will probably be
reacting to the Kevin Durant trade, whether it's with the
Rockets or another team. The best place to hear from
me is on social media. I'm on Blue Sky at
(48:38):
Vendubo's and this show, the logger Line and the Rockets Wire,
the USA Today Blog around the Editor. Those are on
Twitter slash x at those handles, the logger Line, the
Rockets Wire, and also if you go to the logger
Line the podcast page on Twitter slash x, hipolink tree.
In the bio, you can find links to adeditribution partners, Apple,
Google and Spotify. Subscribe to Pods of Review if you've
not already. That's how we can keep looking good to
(49:00):
those friends, partners and sponsors and keep this podcast running
one of the most active ones covering Houston Rockets basketball.
You can also find links to friends of the program,
Sports Talk seven ninety, USA Today's Rockets Wire, Cardback, Brewing Hit.
If those links consume their content again, that's another way
we can look good to all the relevant entities and
keep this podcast running as one of the most active
ones covering Houston Rockets basketball. All Right, with the plots complete,
(49:22):
I will finally adjourn on this Saturday, June fourteenth. Again,
I'm Benju Bo's appreciate you all so much for tuning in,
and please come back soon for more new episodes of
the Loggern Line Go Rockets,
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