October 29, 2025 • 8 mins
A new UNF poll shows Republican candidates holding a strong lead in the race for Florida governor. Florida Politics Publisher Peter Schorsch joins us to break down the numbers and weigh in on the brewing rematch between Governor Ron DeSantis and Democratic challenger Charlie Perez.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's go to the hoighline and bring in the publisher
of Florida Politics, Peter Shore. She can find all of
his work and all of his teams reporting at Florida
politics dot com. That's Florida Politics dot com. So, Peter,
I want to start with some new polling and let
me add in the caveats that we always mentioned when
we talk about polling. Take all of it with a
grain of salt. Snapshot in time, not a perfect science.
(00:23):
But un f they released a new one. What did
you make of it?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
So, University of North Florida put out a poll that
measured Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis versus David Jolly and
Jerry Demons. Jerry Demons is the Orlando County mayor who
has talked about running for governor. So I'm going to
(00:48):
tell you the thing that stood out the most was
what they did in poll, which was Byron Donalds versus
Casey DeSantis. Because that's what I think most people who
follow Florida politics closely are in interested in, is you know,
Donald versus DeSantis or Collins, et cetera. So when I
when I opened up the file to look for it,
I was it's like I thought they'd kind of bury
(01:11):
the lead, so there wasn't even a lead to that there.
The results of the of the poll were kind of
as expected. Both Donald's and DeSantis have double digit, strong
double digit leads over Jolly and Demis Casey. DeSantis did
maybe like one point better, so totally within the margin
(01:31):
of error. And then as you went forward into the pole,
they pulled some of the down ballot stuff like Attorney
General race James Meyer versus Joser Jose Javier Rodriguez. That's
an even larger lead there. Ashley Moody against Jennifer Jenkins
again a a almost a twenty point lead, but you know,
(01:52):
definitely a couple of touchdowns there. And the pollster says
and reflects that, Listen, this is what Florida is now.
It's just an increasingly red state. This is if Republicans
turn out where they're at and Democrats turn out where
their registration is at, this is what elections are going
to look like in Florida. They are going to look
(02:13):
like the NFL games on Sundays where all the favorites
won and they beat the spread. And so that's what
I saw on the top half. I will say and
I hope you like read all the way through. There
was some interesting stuff on the issue things, and I
was actually thinking about you when they asked what were
(02:34):
what are the most important issues facing Floridians? And all
of them are in your wheelhouse that you're always hitting
on about affordability, and it was it was the cost
of housing, it was property insurance, and taxes like those
are the three and economy was also in there. So
(02:54):
all the affordability issues are on the top of voters' minds.
I didn't read one, you know, not in the top
five sixty seven. I didn't read one mention of you know,
books being banned or real law or any of that crap.
It was all like, hey, Florida, it was all basically,
the rent is too high. Mmm exactly.
Speaker 1 (03:14):
We're joined by the publisher of Florida Politics, Peter Shorsch,
and you know, we keep hearing from elected officials and
others that property insurance, those those rates are coming down,
and I don't know, anecdotally, I'm not hearing that, and
the polling isn't showing that, that's for sure.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It was It's just clear cut, and I don't want
to commingle it because it's two totally different reasons why
it's going to happen. But this being, you know, the
kind of like enrollment week for healthcare, people are going
to get the first scope of what their healthcare for
twenty twenty six is going to look like. I mean, there,
I know that I am looking at a basically a
(03:58):
fifty percent increase my family's health insurance. I talking to
all my team people that they're shopping on the market,
and it is through the roof. And so again, property tax,
property insurance. You know that stuff is and housing costs
are state local issues. But that doesn't mean that it's
I mean, it's still your wallet. It's still you're gonna
(04:19):
get hit with all of that. And you're gonna get
a hit. A lot of people are gonna if they
can afford the insurance, they are gonna get hit with
some massive increases with the end of the Obamacare subsidies
or even the delay of them. And so I don't know, Ryan,
I'm telling you, like I'm starting to get this little
twinge about like people are gonna December January start going, man,
(04:43):
how do I afford any of this right now? And
so I saw that in the poll that was that
was really what was speaking to me. Then they hit
on a couple of things. I think it's important to
point out one thing that I saw. The two strongest
numbers were Number one, people won't be files like that is,
if there's one thing Floridians agree on, it's that they
(05:05):
want the Epstein files released. I think eighty three percent
of Floridians want the Epstein files released. The other one
that really stood out was I think it was two
thirds of Floridians are opposed either strongly or somewhat to
the anti vax movement that is coming out of Tallassee
that children shouldn't be vaccinated as they go into school
(05:27):
and the Again, the polster made some comments that the
people that are that like RFK, like the national stuff.
They're there, but pretty much the rest of the state
is against them. That's that's one of the you know,
usually Rohnda Santis has got his finger on the pulse
of Floridians. He gets out there in front of these
(05:48):
issues and things like that, it doesn't seem like he's
winning that public policy debate. Just looking at that number,
and then finally, very scared for you and me, trusted
that they did a like a kind of a trust
in institutions. The medical professionals have the highest level of trust,
(06:10):
but a media professionals we really suffered, whether it be.
The thing that was interesting is people think CNN lied
more than Fox News, But both of those institutions were
in the tank with Florida voters in terms of how
trustworthy they thought they were.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Real quick, the childhood vaccine requirements issue, to me, that's
another one of those issues where I think most Floridians
are like, really not broke. Why are we fixing this?
Get back to the affordability stuff. That's what they're saying.
That's what they're screaming. And I have to ask you
about the property tax issue real quick. We're joined by
(06:48):
the publisher of Florida Politics, Peter Shorsch. So you've got
the Florida House Republicans. They're rolling out this plan with
a number of different options to potentially put on the
ballot different property tax cuts.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
You got the governor.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
He immediately comes out and says, yeah, this is a joke,
and now you have a battle once again between the
governor and the House Speaker.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I will tell you, and I'm gonna say it you know,
this week and every week through the second week in January,
when session starts, it's gonna be ugly. It's going to
be messy. Since I spoke with you last week, I
had a long conversation with a senior member of legislative
leadership and just how far apart the House and the
governor slash Senate are and you know, the Governor just
(07:36):
coming out and saying there should only be one ballot
initiative about property taxes, which is all but impossible, and
kind of dismissing the work and the effort and the
earnestness of the House. Like the House, you know, hey,
here's a work product. We've been meeting and committee. We've
got a special committee set up for this. The Senate
hasn't done anything. The Governor hasn't said you know, the
(07:58):
House keeps saying, hey, what's your man? What do you
want it to be other than the complete abolition of
property taxes? And so you're going to hear ad nauseum
from me. Ryan is going to be an ugly and
messy session.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
The publisher of Florida Politics, Peter shuresh there's going to
be a lot of coverage of all of that and
a whole lot more at floridapolitics dot com. Peter always
appreciate time and insight. We'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Thanks for having me on Ryan The Ryan Gorman Show
on NewsRadio WFLA.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Follow us on Facebook and Instagram at Ryan Gorman Show,
and find us online at Ryan Gormanshow dot com
Let's go to the hoighline and bring in the publisher
of Florida Politics, Peter Shore. She can find all of
his work and all of his teams reporting at Florida
politics dot com. That's Florida Politics dot com. So, Peter,
I want to start with some new polling and let
me add in the caveats that we always mentioned when
we talk about polling. Take all of it with a
grain of salt. Snapshot in time, not a perfect science.
(00:23):
But un f they released a new one. What did
you make of it?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
So, University of North Florida put out a poll that
measured Byron Donalds and Casey DeSantis versus David Jolly and
Jerry Demons. Jerry Demons is the Orlando County mayor who
has talked about running for governor. So I'm going to
(00:48):
tell you the thing that stood out the most was
what they did in poll, which was Byron Donalds versus
Casey DeSantis. Because that's what I think most people who
follow Florida politics closely are in interested in, is you know,
Donald versus DeSantis or Collins, et cetera. So when I
when I opened up the file to look for it,
I was it's like I thought they'd kind of bury
(01:11):
the lead, so there wasn't even a lead to that there.
The results of the of the poll were kind of
as expected. Both Donald's and DeSantis have double digit, strong
double digit leads over Jolly and Demis Casey. DeSantis did
maybe like one point better, so totally within the margin
(01:31):
of error. And then as you went forward into the pole,
they pulled some of the down ballot stuff like Attorney
General race James Meyer versus Joser Jose Javier Rodriguez. That's
an even larger lead there. Ashley Moody against Jennifer Jenkins
again a a almost a twenty point lead, but you know,
(01:52):
definitely a couple of touchdowns there. And the pollster says
and reflects that, Listen, this is what Florida is now.
It's just an increasingly red state. This is if Republicans
turn out where they're at and Democrats turn out where
their registration is at, this is what elections are going
to look like in Florida. They are going to look
(02:13):
like the NFL games on Sundays where all the favorites
won and they beat the spread. And so that's what
I saw on the top half. I will say and
I hope you like read all the way through. There
was some interesting stuff on the issue things, and I
was actually thinking about you when they asked what were
(02:34):
what are the most important issues facing Floridians? And all
of them are in your wheelhouse that you're always hitting
on about affordability, and it was it was the cost
of housing, it was property insurance, and taxes like those
are the three and economy was also in there. So
(02:54):
all the affordability issues are on the top of voters' minds.
I didn't read one, you know, not in the top
five sixty seven. I didn't read one mention of you know,
books being banned or real law or any of that crap.
It was all like, hey, Florida, it was all basically,
the rent is too high. Mmm exactly.
Speaker 1 (03:14):
We're joined by the publisher of Florida Politics, Peter Shorsch,
and you know, we keep hearing from elected officials and
others that property insurance, those those rates are coming down,
and I don't know, anecdotally, I'm not hearing that, and
the polling isn't showing that, that's for sure.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It was It's just clear cut, and I don't want
to commingle it because it's two totally different reasons why
it's going to happen. But this being, you know, the
kind of like enrollment week for healthcare, people are going
to get the first scope of what their healthcare for
twenty twenty six is going to look like. I mean, there,
I know that I am looking at a basically a
(03:58):
fifty percent increase my family's health insurance. I talking to
all my team people that they're shopping on the market,
and it is through the roof. And so again, property tax,
property insurance. You know that stuff is and housing costs
are state local issues. But that doesn't mean that it's
I mean, it's still your wallet. It's still you're gonna
(04:19):
get hit with all of that. And you're gonna get
a hit. A lot of people are gonna if they
can afford the insurance, they are gonna get hit with
some massive increases with the end of the Obamacare subsidies
or even the delay of them. And so I don't know, Ryan,
I'm telling you, like I'm starting to get this little
twinge about like people are gonna December January start going, man,
(04:43):
how do I afford any of this right now? And
so I saw that in the poll that was that
was really what was speaking to me. Then they hit
on a couple of things. I think it's important to
point out one thing that I saw. The two strongest
numbers were Number one, people won't be files like that is,
if there's one thing Floridians agree on, it's that they
(05:05):
want the Epstein files released. I think eighty three percent
of Floridians want the Epstein files released. The other one
that really stood out was I think it was two
thirds of Floridians are opposed either strongly or somewhat to
the anti vax movement that is coming out of Tallassee
that children shouldn't be vaccinated as they go into school
(05:27):
and the Again, the polster made some comments that the
people that are that like RFK, like the national stuff.
They're there, but pretty much the rest of the state
is against them. That's that's one of the you know,
usually Rohnda Santis has got his finger on the pulse
of Floridians. He gets out there in front of these
(05:48):
issues and things like that, it doesn't seem like he's
winning that public policy debate. Just looking at that number,
and then finally, very scared for you and me, trusted
that they did a like a kind of a trust
in institutions. The medical professionals have the highest level of trust,
(06:10):
but a media professionals we really suffered, whether it be.
The thing that was interesting is people think CNN lied
more than Fox News, But both of those institutions were
in the tank with Florida voters in terms of how
trustworthy they thought they were.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Real quick, the childhood vaccine requirements issue, to me, that's
another one of those issues where I think most Floridians
are like, really not broke. Why are we fixing this?
Get back to the affordability stuff. That's what they're saying.
That's what they're screaming. And I have to ask you
about the property tax issue real quick. We're joined by
(06:48):
the publisher of Florida Politics, Peter Shorsch. So you've got
the Florida House Republicans. They're rolling out this plan with
a number of different options to potentially put on the
ballot different property tax cuts.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
You got the governor.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
He immediately comes out and says, yeah, this is a joke,
and now you have a battle once again between the
governor and the House Speaker.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
I will tell you, and I'm gonna say it you know,
this week and every week through the second week in January,
when session starts, it's gonna be ugly. It's going to
be messy. Since I spoke with you last week, I
had a long conversation with a senior member of legislative
leadership and just how far apart the House and the
governor slash Senate are and you know, the Governor just
(07:36):
coming out and saying there should only be one ballot
initiative about property taxes, which is all but impossible, and
kind of dismissing the work and the effort and the
earnestness of the House. Like the House, you know, hey,
here's a work product. We've been meeting and committee. We've
got a special committee set up for this. The Senate
hasn't done anything. The Governor hasn't said you know, the
(07:58):
House keeps saying, hey, what's your man? What do you
want it to be other than the complete abolition of
property taxes? And so you're going to hear ad nauseum
from me. Ryan is going to be an ugly and
messy session.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
The publisher of Florida Politics, Peter shuresh there's going to
be a lot of coverage of all of that and
a whole lot more at floridapolitics dot com. Peter always
appreciate time and insight. We'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Thanks for having me on Ryan The Ryan Gorman Show
on NewsRadio WFLA.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Follow us on Facebook and Instagram at Ryan Gorman Show,
and find us online at Ryan Gormanshow dot com
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