Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Broadcasting life from Denver, Colorado. It's the Weekend with Michael Brown.
Glad to have you joining the program today. The text
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the Situation with Michael Brown, The Situation with Michael Brown.
That will automatically download the weekday program that I do
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(01:03):
that doesn't put you to sleep at night, then you
probably need drugs. We have a We have rituals in
this country, and some are some are good, and some
are silly, and some are like, why do we do this?
Why do we do it? One of those one of
those rituals occurs every month on the first Friday, at
(01:25):
a thirty Eastern time. Do you know what it is?
And and trust me in in newsrooms, radio stations, newspapers, magazines, blogs,
sub stacks, everywhere you can possibly imagine, people are waiting there.
(01:47):
There it is the jobs numbers. On the first Friday
of every month, eight thirty in the morning, the Bureau
of Labor Statistics puts out the Employment Situation Report, and
then the cabal just eats it up. And of course
they really don't care what the numbers are. They only
(02:10):
care if the Democrats in office. They only care if
they can figure out some way to put a positive
spin on it. And if a Republican is in office,
is there some way we can put a negative spin
on it? So Fox, CNN, MSNBC, the Wall Street Journal,
of the Time, the New York Times, the Washington Post,
all the networks, all of them start figuring out how
(02:33):
can we spin it? And man, do they just spin
it like a top. Now, sometimes if the economy is
actually a turning point, that report will get covered by
you know, everybody, I mean even outside the cabal, all
the pundits, all the talking heads, all the economists in
(02:54):
the universities, all the economists that work you know, on
Wall Street, all the economists that work for banks. Everybody
everywhere has an opinion on the job's number. Well, I
don't know, was it last week? I conflate time so terribly,
I don't remember. But Trump he fired the director of
(03:17):
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and that caused the cabal's
head collectively to explode. The sentiment that was among the
collective sentiment among the cabal was understandable because, oh my gosh,
(03:37):
we rely on those numbers, regardless of whether they got revised,
you know, six weeks later, upward or down. We rely
on those numbers to set our political agenda. So don't
go around firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now,
I hope that you understand that I think this, all
(03:59):
of this pearl clutching and all of the dramas surrounding
the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor
Statistics is just that it's a bunch of bull crap.
What's hilarious is for all of their heads exploding. I
think that Donald Trump is probably better at manipulating the
(04:22):
media than anybody else, and if the Cabal can't see
past that, then well that's their business model, actually, because
there's no excuse if you are a discerning consumer of
the news to swallow the drivel that is being fed
(04:42):
to you by the cabal. But in this particular case,
we actually find out that when you start pulling the
curtain aside, you let the smoke kind of in the
dust saddle, you realize that, oh, wait a minute, he
may have actually been onto something here, and it wasn't
just because the numbers weren't as good or you know,
(05:03):
the numbers got revised down, or whatever the circumstances may
have been for the you know, for the August jobs
report number. That's im material. I think that the the
response by the cabal was absolutely on purpose. It's as
(05:26):
if the you know, the CIA had discovered that there
were you know, Russian nuke submarines off the coast. You know,
they were off the coast of Long Beach, off the
coast of Savannah, Georgia, and they were on you know, uh,
Defcon level five, ready to shoot us down at any
moment or that there were you know, Al Qaeda terra
(05:49):
cells in Chicago and Houston and Chicago, you know, Chugar everywhere.
And so the President got rid of the FBI, and
got rid of the CIA director, and got rid of
all you know, fire the chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff. Except now that's true. No, it's true because
(06:10):
when you find out the real truth about what's going
on with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, didn't you understand that,
oh maybe what Trump did was actually correct. Before I
got to the details of why I think Trump is correct,
let's first put some facts out. I know, facts, facts,
(06:36):
and I don't mean you know, my truth or whatever
I'm talking about. Facts. Do you know that the director
the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a political appointee? And
I think every president I didn't go back that far,
but almost every president at some point, maybe not immediately
(06:58):
because this is not necessary, you know, which is more
important to get a nomination and a Senate confirmation of
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or your Secretary of State,
or your Secretary of Defense or your Secretary of onland Security. Yeah,
I think those are more important, including the deputies and
the undersecretaries of those departments. So at some point, maybe
(07:20):
five or six months into your term, you decide that,
oh yeah, now I'm getting down into the not even
the sub cabinet level. I'm just getting out into some
of the independent agencies and some of the bureaus, some
of the departments, and I'm gonna start appointing people there.
So Trump took us time on this one. It's a
non story. It would be nice if, oh, I don't know,
(07:45):
meet the press had actually thought about that before they
started grilling some of the people that they did after
Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So that's number one,
it's a political position. Number two, Honestly, the job's numbers
are important. Can we agree on that, because when the
(08:08):
Federal Reserve decides whether or not they're going to increase
or decrease interest rates, those jobs numbers are probably the
single most important gauge on how is the US economy doing.
I actually think it might be more important than what
the inflation number is. So the reliability of the Bureau
(08:30):
of Labor Statistics data has been declining. Were you aware
of that absence President Trump's public firing of the politically
appointed Bureau of Labor Statistics chief. I'm not sure that
(08:51):
any of us, anybody, would have realized just how bad
the data's become. Now. The timing is bizarre. It's not
as if I'm talking about you know, I'm not taking
an anti BLS stance to fit in with you know,
this particular story, Trump fired the commissioner, Erica Mcanterfer I
(09:14):
think is how you pronounce her name August first. But
prior to that, there were reports out about the faulty
beautiful Labor Statistics data. For example, one expert wrote One
expert wrote something that I'll share with you coming up
(09:36):
next that indicates that you know what I bet someone
put this in Trump's clips and he read the same thing.
It's the Weekend with Michael Brown. Hang tight, you'll hear
that next. Welcome back to the Weekend with Michael Brown.
To have you with me, text line three three one
(09:58):
zero three, keyword Mike or Mike go follow me on
Except Michael Brown, USA. So back in two thousand and four,
Harriage Foundation actually published a study about the faulty data
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the person who
wrote that report then ended up doing an op ed
(10:21):
in The New York Times, and then that ended up
into another report in the at the website Public Interest.
All that was published in between two thousand and four
and two thousand and five, and the claim was that
the Bureau of Labor Statistics data was incorrect, that the
(10:42):
Federal Reserve should not be relying on that data, and
that they predicted that they were, the Fed relying on
that data, was making incorrect decisions, and that they overstimulated
the housing market, which we know they did, you know,
approving subprime loans and you know, dropping interest rates way down,
(11:04):
doing all of that, and that is what led to
the two thousand and eight Great Recession. That's all a
matter of record. Well, you would have thought, but then
you realize we're talking about the federal government, that bad
Bureau of Labor Statistic data going all the way back
(11:25):
to two thousand and four, that you can show a cause,
a link between that bad data and the recession of
two thousand and eight. Would have said to Oh, what
would have said? What would have said to Bush, Obama,
you know, Trump, all of them, that maybe we ought
(11:45):
to restructure how jobs data is gathered, assembled and then
put out for the for the public and for all
of the consumers of that data to use to make
their economic and financial decisions. And that by now the
data would actually be better. But if you look at it,
it's actually worse than it was some twenty years ago.
(12:10):
And why is that? Important? Data about our economy is
fundamentally survey data. What do I mean? Well, the unemployment
rate that comes from a survey of American households, much
like polling data comes from a survey. You develop a sample,
(12:37):
you try to make the sample, you know, relatives of
what you're asking about, and then you go out and
you do a survey. Some people respond, some people don't,
some people lie, it's just a survey. The job's number
that comes from a survey of American businesses asking about
their payrolls, well, that data is only as good as
(13:00):
the surveys. And as we all know, when we look
at political polling or polling about almost anything. You know,
what's your favorite restaurant or you know, I'm not comparing
that to say, Yelp or anything else. But we've all
kind of learned, have we by now that when we
read surveys or we read, you know, reviews about something,
(13:25):
we ought to be questioning everything. If you go to
a restaurant solely based upon a review, a bunch of
reviews that you read on yelp, do you ever stop
and think to yourself that all, wait, now, I'm not
just picking on YEP. It's any group that does this
that good grief. Maybe they all work for the restaurant. Uh,
maybe they just had one bad experience. Don't do that? Well,
(13:48):
why are we doing it? With important data like this?
When you look at the Bureau of Labor Stistic's own
internal report, it shows a response rate, for example, the
payroll data, the response rate has dropped to below fifty percent.
(14:08):
It's that currently had about forty two point six percent.
It's gone all the way. Now, Now you may think
that forty two point six percent is really bad, which
it is, But let's go back to two thousand fifth,
let's go back to let's go back ten years ago,
twenty fifteen. What do you think it was then? Ninety percent?
(14:28):
Eighty percent seventy five. No, it is barely sixty two percent,
barely sixty two percent of all the surveys they sent out.
And then it's been on the steady decline since about
twenty nineteen, all the way down to where last March,
the last time I could find any data for this,
the response rate was forty two point six percent. Yeah,
(14:54):
I know that the surveys are very technical and they
get very boring, and if I were the CFO of
a company, or if I was the head of a household,
to got to ask about this stuff at some point,
which I'm sure you've done too. You start out because
someone sends you a survey and you're really interested in
(15:14):
that product or that service, and you want to get
a good survey, and then you get mired down into
so much of it, and suddenly the dog needs to
go outside, or you got to go take a whiz,
or you gotta do whatever you gotta do, and so
you know your spouse is yelling at you it's time
to go to dinner, or what the kids are screaming,
So you drop it and you never go back to it,
you never finish it. Or you're sitting at work and
(15:37):
you'll just do do do do do, do do doo.
Every survey is, by design, a sample from a population,
and the conceptual design of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
sample is, well, it's it's kind of beautiful, but just
because it's beautiful doesn't mean that it's worth anything. In fact,
(16:01):
that that elegance, that beauty in it is useless. If
the real world behavior of companies entering the survey is low,
and when barely two out of five establishments that respond
to your survey, then the results are highly variable and
probably pretty damn inaccurate. And that's what drives our economy.
(16:27):
That's what Jerome Powell and all the Board of Governors
at the Federal Reserve rely on when they start making
decisions about, oh maybe we'll just maybe we want to
load the Federal Reserve rate so we can, you know,
get the housing markets spurred again. Wow, Our entire economy
based on surveys that people can lie on, they can ignore,
(16:51):
they cannot finish, they can partially do not do, or
they can assign it to their assistant because they don't
want to take time to do it. And that goes
in to the Federal Reserves consideration about what we should
do with the economy. Now, if you're out there and
you're going to defend the Bureau of Labor Statistics, you
(17:11):
would say that the collection rate of the payroll survey
is indeed low. For the first release, that seems to
be around sixty three percent on average recently, and yeah,
that's down from the past. But on the second and
third release, collection rates approaching ninety five percent. Well, then
that became that's misleading because the preliminary port that's the headline,
(17:35):
not when you go back and say, please, please please
answer the survey and then you kind of get it
up a little higher, or you improve it some and
then you have to revise the numbers. It's just a
stupid way to collect data. It's the Weekend with Michael Brown.
Text line three to three one zero three, keyword micro Michael.
You follow me on except Michael Brown USA. I'll be
right back tonight.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
Michael Brown joins me here, the former FEMA director of
talk show host Michael Brown.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
Brownie, no, Brownie, You're doing a heck of a job
The Weekend with Michael Brown. Hey, welcome back to the
Weekend with Michael Brown. Glad to have you with me.
I appreciate you tuning in. You know, if you like
what we do on the weekend program, then you might
like what we do during the weekday because I broadcast
live from Denver also from six to ten Mountain time
(18:25):
on the station six thirty khow So on your iHeart
app or on your computer. However, you might listen online.
Just search for six thirty khow and you can listen
to me live from six to ten every morning on
that station Monday through Friday. So if you like the
weekend program, I think you'd enjoy the weekday program too.
So Goober number ninety eight ninety three, great point about
(18:48):
something called the plum Book. This will help you understand,
and I think it helps me understand too when I
think about the perspective of it, that a lot of
people don't realize that something like the Bureau the Director
of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a presidential appointment.
It's a political appointment. So maybe you ought to go
(19:08):
look at the plumb Book sometime. I think this is
a great suggestion. The Plumbook is called the United States
Government Policy and Supporting Positions. United States Government Policy and
Supporting Positions. It's always just kind of been referred to
as the Plumb Book because these are the plumb jobs
(19:29):
that you can get in the government. In twenty twenty,
there were seven nine hundred and thirty five political appointments
across the executive and the legislative branches. The twenty twenty
four Plumb Book had eight thousand positions, although I do
know that in some articles it goes upwards as high
(19:52):
as nine thousand. Well, the Office of Personnel Management OPM,
there were an act pass called the Plumb Act, and
they're having to digitize all of this and update it,
and they may get up to and exceed ten thousand
positions in both the executive and the legislative branch. Now
(20:14):
it includes cabinet secretaries, deputy secretaries, undersecretaries like IOWA was,
agency heads, policy executives, some of the support staff there are.
Out of all of those, some are For example, I
have two presidential commissions, which means that I had to
go through two separate Senate confirmations. The first was to
(20:37):
be the deputy director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency,
and then when it got folded into the Department of
Homeland Security, I became an undersecretary, so that required a
second nomination and a second confirmation by the US Senate,
and there are about, I don't know, I would say
on average, just on average, fifteen hundred appointments that require
(20:59):
a presidential nomination and a Senate confirmation. You can you
can find these. You can go to gov info dot gov,
gov info dot gov and just search for the plumbook
or just in your search bar, just search for plum book. Yeah,
like the plum, like the fruit, and you'll find it.
And you'll find the Bureau of Labor Statistics director in
(21:22):
that in that book. So for all of the kerfuffle
that occurred over Trump's firing, when when I heard it,
it was a big yawn to me, but it did
lead me to HM. When Trump says that the numbers
are misleading, I mean I always thought the numbers were misleading,
(21:44):
primarily because of they're always revising them upwards or downwards.
Well that led me to really trying to figure out
why do they do that. It's one of those things
that I always heard about, but until Trump took action,
I never really thought that much about it. The preliminary report,
(22:04):
the one that comes out on that Friday at eight
thirty Eastern time, that's always the headline. And as I say,
it's got a sixty two point six, let's just say
sixty three. It has a sixty That survey from which
they get that number has a sixty three percent collection rate. Well,
that means that the headline is broken. Because if that's
(22:28):
the best you can do in terms of collection, or
it's dropped down now to forty two percent, it's even worse.
That means it's it's just it's just not good data.
And I think the Bureau of Labor Statistics is actually
hiding the problem. As I said before the break, if
(22:50):
you have a collection rate of ninety five percent, or
I don't care, sixty five percent, whatever the percentage is,
guess what a collection rate is. A collection rate is
not a response rate because the collection rate excludes a refusal.
(23:11):
So if you send a survey out and someone either
refuses or declines or fails to respond, they don't include
that in the survey. Once you factor in refusals, that's
when you get down to response rate of forty two
(23:32):
point six percent. Now let me ask you a question.
Would you trust your, say, your company, their accounts if
only forty two percent of let's say that you are
the you you're part of a franchise McDonald's. So McDonald's
(23:55):
corporate headquarters in Chicago surveys all of its franchisees about,
you know, how many you know, quarter pounders with keys
are you selling? And you only had forty two percent
of the franchises respond. You throw a fit. You'd like, well,
we can't make any corporate decisions about you know, pricing
or you know, changing the menu or promotions or anything
(24:19):
else if less than half of you respond. But I
think even more important than than those numbers is the
employment numbers. Take the most recent report published in August first.
In that report, there is not one mention of either
(24:41):
the response rate or the collection rate. So maybe that
will wake you up. And now you can realize just
how shocking that some of the statements that the cabal
makes about those numbers really are. Because they're taking an inadequate, inaccurate,
unreliable number and spewing it out there, writing headlines, spilling
(25:07):
ink everywhere, and pundits on television, spending all this time
talking about what the numbers mean and who's listening to
all of that? To Jerome pal in the Federal Reserve,
or economists, or for that matter, chief financial officers who
are trying to make a decision about whether to expand
their companies or not, and or to invest capital in
some sort of you know, expansion of their company, and
(25:29):
they're relying on a data that is that incomplete. Let's
see I pulled up. Here are two examples. Opening paragraph.
Total non farm payroll employment changed little in July, up
seventy three thousand, and has shown little change since April.
(25:52):
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today the unemployment
rate at four to two point percent. Four point two
percent also changed little in July, or this one. Revisions
for May and June we're larger than normal. The change
in total non farm payroll employment for May was revised
down by one hundred and twenty five thousand, from up
(26:12):
one hundred and forty four thousand to up nineteen thousand,
and the change for June was revised down by one
hundred and thirty three thousand, from up one hundred and
forty seven thousand to up fourteen thousand. With these revisions,
employment in May and June combined is two hundred and
fifty eight thousand lower than previously reported. Now if you
(26:36):
understand now about how they collect the data. Aren't you
a little upset when Donald Trump talks about too late
Pale because he's too late in reducing the Federal Reserve rate,
which would affect your credit cards, your mortgage, your car loans, everything.
(27:00):
Do you understand why Trump's upset about this, because not
only does it affect say, your home loan or your
home equity loan, or your car loan or your credit
card rate. Guess what else it affects. It affects how
much you and I as taxpayers pay an interest on
the national debt. Because the interest on those bonds that
(27:24):
we sell in order to have money to service the debt,
we pay an interest rate on that. And if you
are relying on the interest rate based on what the
Federal Reserve does, and they're relying upon inaccurate data from
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we're probably paying billions of
more than we should pay. So I think it's absolutely
reasonable for Trump to be upset. And if Trump and
(27:47):
Doge and this entire administration is set about as rapidly
as they can trying to fix some of these systemic
problems and systemic failures within the federal bureaucracy, then I
say power to them. You know, the President has been
asking the Federal Reserved the looks to consider, you know,
(28:07):
guys at least look at lowering the rate. But he
gets tinny because the FED believes that the labor market
is strong. Well, the belief that the labor market is
strong is based on bad data. Should the FED be
cutting rights? Well, you know, I'm not sure that's the point.
But should the FED have actual accurate data? Yes, I
(28:31):
don't think that's even debatable. So if you want to
go in, mister President and shake up the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, are you the hall Lujah course in these
quarters is standing up singing Hallelujah. I'll be right back. Hey,
(28:53):
welcome back to the Weekend with Michael Brown. I'm really
glad to have you joining the program today. I just
had a friend of mine send me something I'm going
to play for you. I just I checked it during
the break to make sure it's it's FCC friendly, and
it's hilarious. And it's hilarious because I had heard about
(29:13):
this guy, but I had not seen this. You know,
progressive Democrats, the Marxists that you know, live among us
sometimes are just really backcrap crazy. Maybe maybe the next
thing will be Mullens McLean, mcloan, McLean. I'm not quite
(29:33):
sure you pronounced his last name. He's currently the only
Democrat candidate for the governor of South Carolina, and a
online video on from lives of TikTok and It's over
on x he is reported that William Mullens McLeod was
(29:56):
stopped in downtown Charleston while quote yelling at the top
of his low and wearing only underwearing shoes. According to
the police report, the Democrat referred to his upcoming election race,
even threatening to kick an opponent's e fing teeth in,
while refusing to tell the cops his name, instead referring
(30:17):
to himself as God in Superman. Now, there's apparently a
Freedom of Information Act request, which is where this comes from,
that shows an hour long video of this guy. Now.
The threat about kicking him teeth is apparently addressed to
the Republican Attorney general in South Carolina, a guy by
(30:41):
the name of what was the guy's name? I can't
get it anyway. The Attorney general in South Carolina is
a Republican. He's running for governor, So I'm not quite
sure whether he's well. In fact, I do know, based
on list to this at least short part of the
(31:03):
more than hour long video, that in the clip I'm
about to play for you, he's yelling at Nancy Mace,
who is currently a Republican congresswoman from South Carolina who
has decided to throw her hat in for governor. I
play this because now I don't know whether this guy
was ever tested for drugs or alcohol or what. But
(31:24):
if you're running around, you know, Charleston or wherever this
was recorded, and you've got your shoes and socks on,
and that's it, and all you can do is scream
about your opponents, and the way that he screams about
your opponent, then you know that. Well, well, I present
to you the Democrats nominee. Now you think you think
(31:49):
Mom Donnie in New York is crazy? No, this is crazy, right.
This is why I think he's yelling at Nancy Mace,
because he does say Nancy at the very beginning. I'm
just not sure he continues about Nancy.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
Hey, Nancy right now, because I only promised that I
would not do this once I started this campaign, because I.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
Can't do this once I started a campaign. You can
better tell the world right now. And what you did
in the wall the Congress was the.
Speaker 4 (32:28):
Grays Sin I were command and the huffrey of this
station where you went and blew slee. I'm a dog
whistle and can close the dog Trump's house.
Speaker 3 (32:44):
And you thought the.
Speaker 4 (32:45):
System was so corrupt the president himself shouldn't not better.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
Take you out.
Speaker 4 (32:53):
You're not anywhere watching DC man wherever closing Donald Trump
is because I'm telling you, my friend, you are kicking.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
It's the thing.
Speaker 3 (33:01):
He don't get a what you're generally is.
Speaker 5 (33:03):
So let's go back to the te thing like that.
So so let's go back to the teething. Now he's
got some rationality going on in his mind because he at
least he kept his train of thought right for.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
Kick everywhere of them in all right, ter kick him in,
you know, Marry Dennis, find your Dennis the negative.
Speaker 3 (33:25):
Put all your teeth before you swallow, you jump and
coward back in your teeth.
Speaker 1 (33:31):
Now this is the way. Won't do this.
Speaker 3 (33:33):
You don't get number king, you ditch and if a
horse for your teeth, if they not properly saws to
the teeth, you don't get your teeth and dump.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
You gotta puts all working. Well that's that, hey, South Carolina?
Is that your Democrat running to be governor? We've some
how in this nation. Have you think about the flash mobs,
(34:05):
you think about the crime in DC, you think about, well,
the crime in the south side of Chicago or Los
Angeles or Houston, wherever you want to go. There just
seems to be a total degeneration and a total denigration
of the social compact. And the Democrat Party really is
(34:26):
kind of gone off the deep end because the response,
for example, to you know, Trump, lawfully, he has a
statutory right for thirty days to pull out the National
Guard deploy them in the district of Columbia, which is
a not a state, but it's a district defined by
the US Constitution. And he has the authority to call
(34:50):
the Guard out to quell the riots and the crime.
And he's done. So Congress will have to act at
the end of the thirty days. I don't know what
they'll do, if anything, but it's put the Democrats in
the position of opposing that and I guess supporting crime.
And so when the Democrat Party tends to either directly
(35:10):
or indirectly, however you want to interpret support crime. You
get nut jobs like that. You get nut jobs that
run for Congress on the basis that, Yeah, I'm gonna
kick your teeth in, and then after I kick your
teeth in, I'm going to call a dentist, and then
and then let's get back to the teeth. And then
after I call a dentist, you know, the holes to
put your teeth in may or may not be big enough.
(35:31):
And you're gonna look pretty crazy because you've been doing
dog whistling in front of Donald Trump's house. Really dog whistling.
I what so is that now you not only support crime,
but now you are in favor of racism, because that's
what dog whistling is all about, right, racism. It just
(35:55):
I don't know. It truly bothers me because we have,
for example, we have we have somebody in Colorado who
is who is mentally ill, but he's already being convicted
of He says he's a registered child sex offender. He
looks scary as hell, and they, uh, he tried to kidnap.
(36:19):
This is after being registered as a sex offender. He
tried to kidnap a young girl off a playground, but
the Colorado Democrats pastor law that in essence precludes the
prosecutor from prosecuting him because he's been determined to be crazy.
So he's running around loose right now. And one of
the local stations in Denver refuses to use his mugshot
(36:42):
because they think it's offensive. It's embarrassing to him. Really,
you try to kidnap a kid, I want your mug
shot everywhere, and this guy I want his, I want
his video everywhere, because this is the Democrats