9-30-25 - 6am - Government Shutdown Looming

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
One governor pulls and other duns want to tell you
how great Colorado is. Remember, we rank thirty third in
the nation for education. They're focused on having your kids
keep information from their own parents. I wonder what would
happen if we, I don't know, did something crazy and
just focused on reading, writing, and arithmetic and not checking

(00:25):
all these other boxes.

Speaker 2 (00:29):
Dragon, I think she needs to get out more often.
I don't think she realizes how wonderful things are in
this state.

Speaker 3 (00:37):
Well, when you check boxes all day, every day, it's
a whole lot of fun.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Yeah, but you know, and so our math and reading
scores are low. But she said we're ranked thirty three.
Well doesn't that put us in the top five? I mean,
come on, do the math, right, I mean thirty three
out of fifty. That puts us in the top five,
because well, I'm a graduate of public education, so I

(01:04):
can do math.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
That math checks out.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
Yeah. I thought I thought you were you because you're
the numbers guy. So I don't understand what the what's
the bitching about.

Speaker 3 (01:12):
I don't get it accurate?

Speaker 2 (01:14):
And and then that's right, actually one hundred and ten
percent accurate, which I've never quite understood. How you can
be one hundred and ten year either accurate or you're
the inaccurate one hundred and ten percent. And then just
drive around and look. You know, it's funny when when
Tamer gets in the car with me and we're doing
the coming into Denver for some reason, so we're doing

(01:35):
the four seventy and the northbound to twenty five. I
know exactly where to put the car between the three
lanes to avoid all of the potholes and all of
the you know, the crappy pavement. And every single time
we go around that curve, I get the you know,
it scares me to death, like what what What's going on?

(01:57):
Because I check the lanes and I make sure I
can get there, so I so I don't try.

Speaker 3 (02:01):
To save the straddle just right.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
I straddled just right so I can miss everything. And
then I explained to her that's what I'm doing, and
then of course she forgets and then we go around
the corner again then and you just you have to
if you drive around in Denver enough, you know that
when people are starting to shift that there, well there's
a bottle, there's a there's a crack in the pavement. People,
we're just trying so, so don't pay it. Here's my

(02:25):
here's my driver's at advice today. Don't pay attention to
the white lines for the white stripe lines, because if
you do, you're going to run your you're gonna run
the axle, you're gonna run your alignment, you're gonna, you know,
blow out a tire. And in fact we're finally, where
is it? Do you drive that area where on two

(02:46):
twenty five where the dip is so bad that it
causes reres no?

Speaker 3 (02:50):
But I have gone over that a time or two,
but that's not part of my usual.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
Is that a Mississippi? Or where is that exactly?

Speaker 3 (02:56):
And yeah, it's just just in that area.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
Yeah, so it's but it's a the on ramp prophet,
it's not on the highway itself, right on the highway.
It's okay, yeah, okay, Because there's also one when you're
northbund because I took tammer to the airport I don't know,
a couple of weeks ago and I forgot I'd forgotten
back because I don't got it and go to the
airport that often. But if you're in the left hand lane,

(03:18):
and I think it's just as you go around from
Parker Road, and your head is that I love for
whichever one's you know, I'm not I'm not familiar with
that part of the time, but there there is a spot
between Ie Lift and whatever. The next street is maybe
Mississippi where it literally just kaboom.

Speaker 3 (03:34):
It's just don't worry. There's one coming south too.

Speaker 2 (03:37):
Oh there is. Oh, okay, okay, all right. Why didn't
come back south Man? Because Google Maps told me it
was all backed up, so I used so I gave
some money to the to the four seventy told people.
So I don't know anyway, I don't know what her
problem is. Why does she have to come in, you know,
why does she have to leave talkbacks that completely? You know,
like it's just it's insanity. Everything's no, no, I did

(04:01):
not fall. I'm okay, don't need I did not fall
a damn watch. Thanks Apple, Thank you Apple. I just well,
we're in a commercial break, right well, we're amazingly we're
not in a commercial break right now.

Speaker 3 (04:18):
Give it time.

Speaker 2 (04:19):
Oh, I know, but see the end of the month.
So hopefully the new quarter starts next month, so.

Speaker 3 (04:25):
Next week it won't be it won't be tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (04:27):
Oh, you're right, because we have to get through the
rest of the week. Yeah, we'll eventually get out of
what we call HD, which is high demand. We used
to have high demand one, two, and three. I think
we now have high demand twelve, fourteen, sixteen, and twenty,
and I think we're in high demand twenty one right now.
Drives me batty. Anyway, do you remember the death clock

(04:50):
on during COVID today on CNN, Although right now we're
having something about elephants hold a special place in our world,
so CNN is l and in our heart. There's a
baby elephant with them. You know, there's an elephant with
a you know, giant tust. Oh, and they're eating some
leaves and stuff. Oh oh, there's a poacher. That's what

(05:13):
it's about, poaching, but killing for ivory and habitat loss.
L shoot the poachers.

Speaker 3 (05:19):
Elephants or missus Redbeard's favorite animals are they? Yeah, little
baby elephants. They're smushed ears against their head, lobby trucks.
They don't know how to use it well.

Speaker 2 (05:27):
As a hunter. I just say kill the poachers. So done,
yeah done?

Speaker 3 (05:32):
Uh?

Speaker 2 (05:32):
Anyway, join the I'm not gonna tell you who it is.
C and n has been running the death clock, except
that today it's four. The shutdown. Oh my gosh, we
were about sixteen hours away or something. Dud dum dum dum.

Speaker 3 (05:53):
There is because a government shutdown is going to affect everybody.

Speaker 2 (05:58):
The economy will come to an end. Life as we
know it will come to an end. I saw. I
didn't see until this morning, as I was just kind
of perusing. I got here a little early today, which
is awful. I don't want to be here any more
than I have to be. But anyway, I arrived a
little early because it means I usually have to talk
to Dragon more than usually. I just don't. I don't

(06:19):
want to do that. It's too early in the morning
to look at him. So I get in and I'm
kind of going through my X speed and apparently Trump
last night posted a artificial intelligence an AI video of
Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer outside the White House telling

(06:42):
the truth about why they cater to Hispanics and Blacks
and every identity group that you can think of. And
it's really cheesy. It's very cheesy. A they have a
Mexican hat and a sombrero or something on Hackeen, Jeffries,
and Chuck's there. The voice on Chuck is very very good.

(07:04):
It sounds I think they must have taken like a
whole bunch of words from Chuck Schumer speaking and had
he had ai translated or transferred into actual words. But
he talks about how, you know, we cater to Hispanics
because well, they don't speak English, so they don't know
what they're doing, and so we're able to get them
to vote for us because we promised them free stuff

(07:26):
and free things all the time. And we can't shut
down the government because it's going to hurt those people
that we need to vote for us so we can
get back in power so we can spend more money.
It's hilarious, but anyway, the problem is it has a
music bed under it, and Chuck drops the feces word
a couple of times and the bull crap word a
couple of times. So rather than try to, you know,

(07:46):
manipulate it and fix it and everything, we just put
it up at what's that website.

Speaker 3 (07:51):
Michael says, go here to Tom thank.

Speaker 2 (07:53):
You, so you can either see them on my x
feed and you.

Speaker 3 (07:56):
Should be He says, go here dot com.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
Thank you, sweetie, as the truck driver would say, did
we ever hear back from them about the lot lizard?
I don't care. Yeah, well I don't care either. I
was just curious if we did. You can see it
on my x feet at Michael Brown USA, and while
you're there, you should be following me, following me anyway,
and you can see it at Michael says go here
dot com. It really is is. I wish I could

(08:21):
play it because it'd be such a great intro to
what I want to talk about. Because it's really easy
to become lost in the fog of all the talking
points that are going on right now about oh my god,
the government's going to shut down. May I just give
you a clear picture of what is really going on?
May I do that? Thank you? The House of Representatives

(08:44):
has passed a very short, clean continuing resolution at current
spending levels. It's just a simple extension designed to kind
of keep the lights on while the full year bills,
the budget bills, the budget bills are finished and then
ultimately passed. The Senate can pass this. The votes exist

(09:09):
if only seven Democrats or Democrats plus the two independents
who caucus with them join the Republicans to technically called
invoke cloture, which means to shut down debate, and then
they just sign it. It goes to the President's desk. President
signs it. Wam bam, thank you man. It's over, and

(09:30):
it's done with seven Democrats or technically five Democrats and
two independents. If they decide not to do that, the
shutdown that follows will be the consequence of the of
the decision of the Democrats not to vote for this resolution,

(09:51):
not of procedural inevitability, not because the House of Representatives,
of the Republicans in the House are being intransient, not
because of any you know, any sort of outlandish things
in them. Let me emphasize again, this is a continuing resolution. Now,
don't get me wrong. I'm not for continuing resolutions, but

(10:13):
here I'll grant an exception. They want to just keep
current spending at current levels, kind of put everything, keep
everything in place as it is while they go through.
And I know I probably shouldn't use these words on air.
They should probably ban these words from the airwaves. FCC,
wake up, pay attention while they.

Speaker 3 (10:35):
Go through.

Speaker 2 (10:37):
Get ready to beat me, bleep me dragon, while they
go through regular order to pass budget bills. I can't believe.
I just use the term regular order and budget bills
on the public airways.

Speaker 3 (10:53):
Don't worry, I dumped it. Nobody heard.

Speaker 2 (10:55):
Okay, good, thank you. That's that's all this continuing resolution
does us. And Democrats aren't willing to do that. If
they want to argue about increasing spending, will go do
it when when you're debating the budget bills in regular order.
So if there is a shutdown in the is the

(11:16):
clock back up? No? Now they're talking about Pete Haggesas. Apparently,
Pete Haggsas, according to Drudge Report, which tells you all
you need to know, Pete Haggst is suffering from some
sort of manic depressive. He's got what's that called when
you're uh, manic depressive? But there you've got the what's

(11:40):
the syndrome? I forget the thing the syndrome is? Anyway,
he's got what Yeah, it's when you're manic depressing. But
there's another phrase too, and I can't think of what
that stupid phrase is. I'm sure five thousand people will
put it up on the in the text line in
a minute. If the Democrats choose not bipolar thank you, bipolar.

(12:04):
That's what I am. I'm bipolar. I just one of
my polls wasn't working this morning. Oh you're definitely by Well, yeah,
I'd like to go buy right now, like buy out
of ear wish. I had to clean up. This place
was a freaking mess when I came in here.

Speaker 3 (12:19):
Well, they changed out the mics and left the old
mics just sitting there.

Speaker 2 (12:22):
I don't with grease, with black grease. Where'd the black
grease come.

Speaker 3 (12:26):
From from the threads of the mic or whatever? Yeah,
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (12:30):
Wow. If they would just simply pass the continuing Resolution
as is, nothing happens. If they choose not to the
shutdown that may occur. In come on, guys, put the
clock back up. I think it was some sixteen hours.

(12:53):
That will be all on Democrats. Responsibility tracks control, and
in this case, control lies with Senate Democrats. Let me
repeat that, responsibility for the shutdown tracks control, and in
this case that control is with the Democrats in the Senate.

(13:18):
So Democrats who can choose to prevent a shutdown by
supplying the marginal seven votes for a clean cr this
is all on them, which is freaking hilarious because most
of the time. It's the other way around, and they're
always screaming about how, oh my gosh, a shutdown is
off when we got to stop a shutdown. If we

(13:38):
don't stop the shut down, it will be the end
of civilization as we know it. That's what they normally do.
But no, not this time. They're not going to do
it this time. These people are nuts, They're absolutely nuts.

(13:59):
You might wonder, and I don't know why, but some
people are asking the question online in other places, does
Trump prefer a shut down? Because, as he said, if
there is a shutdown, RUSS vote. The Director of the
Office of Management and Budget has directed that non essential
employees be terminated, you know, get whatever severance they're entitled to,

(14:25):
whatever they'll you know, their union contract requires, and then
just sever their employment with the federal government. It's a
way to reduce the size of the federal government. Now,
Trump has said though he prefers to avoid a shutdown,
and that is wise, that's that's the smart thing to do.
A shutdown is a blunt tool, and governing ought to

(14:46):
be conducted, you know, with an exacto knife, not with
a sledge hammer. But still there's two hard facts that
ought to be faced directly. First, shutdowns are not They
are not an economic cataclysm that we're told we need
to be afraid of. The best available estimate suggests that
a reduction in quarterly growth may come about on the

(15:11):
order of tenths of a point per week, which then
is always followed by a comparable rebound the moment the
government reopens. Now in terms of a trillion dollar GDP
multi trillion dollar GDP, that's a rounding error in national accounts,
and it underwrites a calm view of the stakes. But second,

(15:33):
if the Democrats insist on forcing a lapse, the administration
has a duty to use that moment to protect the taxpayers.
And that's why Vote and OMB have instructed the agencies
to map programs, the projects, all those activities that both
lose funding number one and number two are misaligned with

(15:54):
the President's priorities, and then prepare lawful riffs reduction in force.
It's not gamesmanship, that's good stewardship. If a program's funding
vanishes and no law compels that funding to continue, the
government should not be treatying as permanent. In the first place,

(16:15):
a shutdown can expose those places where we ought to
be cutting, and then the reduction enforced process can actually
close them down. Now, again, a lot of people argue, oh,
this is a pretext for indiscriminate firing. No, that's not true.
Federal personnel law still governs whether the government's operating or not.

(16:40):
A reduction enforce requires a notice, retention, rules, placement rights.
All that's contained with all the rules and regulations within
the Office of Personnel Personnel Management o PM.

Speaker 3 (16:51):
Those rules are in.

Speaker 2 (16:52):
Place because we try to prevent arbitrariness, and I don't
think any serious conservative wants to set those rules side.
The point is simply more basic than that, when Congress
fails to fund an activity, an agency or a department
is required to shut that program down. Now, if the
world continues to turn and this guy doesn't fall, that

(17:16):
is evidence about priorities. We ought to be budget doing
budget based upon evidence. So a pause which could occur
could actually reveal which programs, which employees are truly essential
to life, liberty, and property, and which administrative layers just

(17:37):
added in more plentiful years and just keep the bureaucracy
either at a steady level or keep it growing. You know,
the latter that when we have plentiful years should not
automatically snap back after every lapse in government funding or
government operations. They ought to be reviewed and some ought
to be eliminated. Means like this is a great time

(18:02):
to accomplish some of those things. But the critics are
still out there, and I want to give you some
tools to counter the critics. Shut it down. Who gets
a rats ass this show? Oh?

Speaker 3 (18:16):
No, no, the government?

Speaker 2 (18:17):
Sorry yeah, oh I thought they were talking about us,
and like, okay, well we'll shut her down. We'll shut
it down and go home. Yeah, I can use an
app already, exactly.

Speaker 3 (18:28):
I stayed up late watching the Breakfast game, so I'm
ready for a n app. Now.

Speaker 2 (18:34):
If you're like me and you like to which I
know you are because that's why you listen to the program.

Speaker 3 (18:39):
Ah, secks to be you.

Speaker 2 (18:43):
Well, you're here because they pay me.

Speaker 1 (18:46):
No.

Speaker 2 (18:48):
I like to take democrats' own words and then throw
them right back in their own face. This these are
the democrats talking about out How well listen for yourself.
And of course then dragon whisperpers in my ear. Oh

(19:09):
there's music behind that? Is that really music?

Speaker 3 (19:11):
Yes? Oh it's something that they could probably ding us far.
So Yeah, since you didn't hear this in the podcast,
please go to Michael says go here dot com.

Speaker 2 (19:20):
Unbelievable just drives me nuts. So like like democrats complaining
in what you didn't hear. If you're listening on the podcast,
Oh my gosh, you know the army is gonna shut down.
TSA won't be there? Is TSA really there? And when
you are they really there? I know, I know you

(19:40):
see them, but are they there now? The critics say
that cuts would sap all of our national capacity, our GDP,
hurt services. But the claim has force only if you
ignore the composition of the federal workforce and the different

(20:00):
between frontline operations and headquarters. About one fifth of FED
civilian employees live and work in the Washington region. There's
a concentration of headquarters and oversight roles far beyond any

(20:21):
one single state now. By contrast, air traffic controllers, for example,
border patrol agents, law enforcement officers, medical professionals who protect
life and property. They're spread out all across the country
and are designated accepted during a lapse. The exception is
not a moral judgment, it's a legal one. We don't

(20:44):
make that decision because well we just think that, you know,
border patrol agents, air traffic control, law enforcement, medical professionals.
We don't make that decision because we think that's the
right thing to do. We make that decision because it's
a legal one, and of course it does track common
sense too. You really want to shut down air traffic controllers,

(21:05):
no border patrol agents, no law enforcement, No, the medical
professionals like the vas up. No, of course not. But
we can do without some of the paperwork, the memos,
the policy statements, the rules and regulations, whatever they do
back in the National Capital Region. But we can't do

(21:27):
without safety, security or benefit checks. When all of the
departments and agencies identify non essential functions, that arrow points
heavily toward administrative layers that reside inside the beltway what's
called the National Capital region, and all of those functions,

(21:52):
all of those administrative layers can be paused without immediate
harm to you and me. Those capital public servants. Guess what,
Maybe it's maybe it's unimportant you, it's important to me.
But you know they're overwhelmingly democrat and they form the

(22:13):
core of the deep state resistance against Donald Trump. So
riffing them, doing a reduction in force is going to
deliver cost savings, but it would also eliminate those barricades,
those blockades who actively resist the needed change that you

(22:38):
and I voted for. So it shut down tests that
claim against reality. And here's where the being prudent meets
a constitutional test. Congress holds the purse. Congress holds the
power of the purse. Appropriations are year by year for

(22:58):
a reason, because an annual review is supposed to force
Congress to prioritize, and when you prioritize, that forces trade offs.
Just as I've said a bazillion times, like I'm back
in Colorado, we spend all our money on the wrong things.
Why because of the prioritization. And when you prioritize, say, oh,

(23:23):
I don't know buying hotels for homeless people or providing
all these services to illegal aliens, then potholes don't get filled,
or you don't hire the extra cops you need for stuff.
That's what happens. That's what annual reviews are supposed to do. Now,
a clean continuing resolution is appropriate when the alternative is

(23:47):
a lapse, because it buys time for Congress to do
its job, to complete that prioritization, to do budget bills,
and once full bills are done, the administration is still
entitled to align the execution of those bills with the
president's agenda, so long as the law is respected. Now

(24:12):
in the interim, if the Democrats choose a shutdown, they
can't complain if the executive declines to treat every paused activity,
every paused government activity as a sacred cow that must
be reviewed regardless of the costs of usefulness. Elections do
have consequences. Guess what else has consequences lapses in the

(24:36):
appropriations process. So at this point some may worry about, well,
what about the macroeconomy? Says a shutdown not risk a recession?
When you look back at years of data, the answer
is no. Temporary slowdowns during lapses are small, they're difficult
to measure beyond the tenth or two on a quarterly

(24:59):
growth rate, and almost entirely reversed when the operations resume. Indeed,
the private sector often adapts. They'll reschedule activity that involves
federal interfacing, and then they'll continue everything else they do.
Most businesses won't see a change. Think about your favorite restaurant,

(25:22):
your wherever you do your shopping, your grocery store, your
department store, wherever you might it's going to affect them. No,
but where it might affect them. As I said, the
private sector adopts. So they got stuff going on that
has to do with the federal government, will they'll, they'll reschedule, they'll, Okay,

(25:44):
let's deprioritize that federal government interfacing and let's you know,
put on a higher priority all the other stuff that
we do. It's important not to confuse all of the
anecdote that you're going to hear a family missing a
passport appointment, a park closing the visitor center, or a

(26:09):
review a panel reviewing grants shifting its meeting to sometime
down in the future. Yeah, that's frustrating. And usually closing
down parks or national monuments is done to frustrate you.
It's done on purpose. But guess what, I hate it's
shocking news to you. But guess what, it's not a

(26:30):
national crisis. The scale of this total economy is the
key to think about. Government spending is huge. It's large,
but in a shutdown, most payments continue, including social security
and medicare. Essential functions remain staffed. We're not going to

(26:51):
shut down the airports. But we're not going to ask
Michael and Dragon to go out and run the tower
at Denver International Airport. Dragon was this button?

Speaker 1 (27:00):
Dude?

Speaker 3 (27:00):
Dragon, I give it a try.

Speaker 2 (27:03):
Yeah, Dragon? Why are these two dots in the radar
going straight at each other? I don't know. Is this pong?
Are we playing pong or something out here? The point
is the resulting macro effects is a tiny little ripple.
It's not a shock to the economy. But there's also
a political economy point that is very rarely admitted even

(27:25):
talked about. I'll tell you about it next. Hey, show
of hands, who thinks the country will run better with
no government employees? Hands? Please? Well, no, I wouldn't go
with no government employees. Right, Yeah, that's anarchy. But I

(27:45):
get your point, which kind of leads into the point
I wanted to make about what the administrative state usually does.
Because there's a political economic point that rarely gets admitted,
and you kind of swerved into it a little bit. Government
agencies and government employees have a strong incentive to exaggerate

(28:08):
the harm that might come from a government shut down.
You know, expect the headlines about how you know, the
national parks have been closed? Or you know, there's inspections
of whatever might be inspected is going to be delayed.
The bureaucracies don't misinterpret this, but they're rational actors. They

(28:30):
want to hide. They know exactly what they're doing. They're
highlighting what's visible to the general public most most likely
to catch the attention of a cabal who wants you know,
if it leads, it bleeds, that's what they want to play.
So that's what they're going to do. So the bureaucracy
is going to play up what's visible and painful. They're

(28:51):
going to downplay and try to bury. And of course
the cabal won't cover that which is invisible and adaptable. Now,
if you're an economist, you can see right through this.
If something can be paused for weeks without a measurable
macroeconomic effect, then the burden of justification for whatever that

(29:14):
is should rest on the side that wants to restore
it or keep it unchanged. The default should not be
an automatic reconstitution of that program, but evidence based reform.
That's what Omb's mapping exercise demands, and it is what

(29:36):
taxpayers deserve. That's what RUSS vote wants to do. Okay,
if they're going to shut in, and they are operating
from a presumption that the government's going to shut down.
Doesn't mean that Trump wants it. But if I were Trump,
I would be I'd be saying exactly the same thing.
I'd be pressuring Democrats to make sure that everybody understands

(29:59):
that they only need self Democrat votes. We have a
clean continuing resolution. Democrats, if they're so worried about everything,
they can keep it open just to either have seven
or five plus the two independents come and vote with
the Republic and the boom, it's done. But Trump's probably
also thinking themself, and if they shut it down, that's
fine because that gives omb the opportunity to actually map

(30:22):
out what they said. Okay, we're gonna look at everything
that is not it's all discretionary, that's not mandatory funding,
that's not somehow necessary for you know, to continue you know,
entitlement programs, or to continue for national security or safety
like air traffic control, and then everything else, we're gonna

(30:42):
we're gonna scrutinize everything else that is discretionary. We're gonna
look at even if it only results in a modest
trimming of you know, salary, health benefits, pension and crules.
If you count everything plus the program costs themselves. It
may not be humongous. It's not going to save us

(31:03):
from the national debt, but it's certainly different than anything
that's been done before. Don't forget that. That's why I
get I would think that russ vote in particular, maybe
not Trump, Trump just doesn't care. But I bet russ
vote over a OMB is hoping that there is a

(31:24):
shut down because that gives him the perfect opportunity to
do this review of what's necessary, what's unnecessary, what's discretionary,
what's really not And then let's start a riff program
and let's do some reductions. And once he starts that,
how quickly do you think Democrats will run to the

(31:46):
voting booth, run to their desks to punch their voting button. Yes, yes, yes,
let's stop the insanity. The argument is not that personnel
costs cause the deficit. They don't. It's the structural dollar
that gets saved, that freese room for what are our

(32:10):
core missions and thus, overall, and even though it might
be minute, it starts reducing thessity, the necessity to borrow money.
You would think The Conservatives learned that lesson back in
the nineteen nineties, when bipartisan reforms use buyouts an attrition
to shrink layers of mental management. The difference today is

(32:34):
urgency debt service. Paying the credit card is now the
dominant line item in our budget. We pay more to
pay on the national debt than we do anything else.
You get to pick up the phone and call American Finance.

(32:56):
This is why the push is for you know, too
late to reduce the FED rate, because that reduces our
borrowing costs. And then you add to that the reduction
enforced process used properly and lawfully. Hey, that's some lasting reform.