July 19, 2024 • 44 mins
The Markets are up, but Tech and the Nasdaq were down. Plus, Washington is pulling the strings. Now is the time to watch the news and make smart decisions. Hosts John and Giuseppe say that starts with asset allocation, education, and the right advisors. The Wise Money Guys.
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Episode Transcript
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The Wise Money Guys Radio Show isbrought to you by One Source of Wealth
Management SEC Licensed three one nine zeroseven eight. For disclosures and more information,
visit our website One Source WM dotcom or call nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. Welcometo the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
(00:20):
I'm your co host John Scambray andI'm here with my partner Deceppe Vescani,
and we are certified portfolio managers thatspecialize in helping people who are retired are
about to retire manage their money.If you like our show and or have
a question or want to get togetherfor a no obligation consultation, which we
highly recommend, called nine one sixnine six seven thirty five hundred. Again
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that numbers nine one six nine sixseven thirty five hundred. So we absolutely
have to start this show off becauseon a very disturbing, angering, just
disgusting, you know topic that youknow, happened right after we aired last
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week Saturday Saturday, and that's theassassin the assassination attempt of former President Trump,
you know, the number one candidatefor becoming and the bystanders, the
forty seventh president and That's why Isay the assassin and not what you keep
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hearing, Oh, an assassination attempt. No, it wasn't an attempt.
There was an assassination, Thanks toGod, it was not successful. Also
on murdering President Trump, but itstill was successful on murdering a tremendous family
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man and and and guy fireman youknow, husband too, and that.
So the assassin isn't an attempted assassin. He is an assassin. But why
I'm just utterly disgusted. And Idon't care if it was Obama or or
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Biden or Trump. The fact thatour top cops meaning in the cross I
don't care who the person was inthe crossairs. I would still be disgusted,
even though you know I'm pro Trump, I would still be disgusted and
feel the identical same way if itwas the opposite person, because the fact
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that they had this dude, thisvile piece of filth. Thankfully, you
know, he was eliminated, gothis head blown apart because that's what he
deserved. Thankfully he was eliminated.But the fact is that they let it
happen. Now, I don't knowwhat's going to come out. You know,
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obviously there's all kinds of conspiracy theories. But the reality is this morning
on the news, repeated from earlierin the week, the videos of the
kid an hour before, literally casingthe building, going to the ladder where
he's gonna go up, and thenhe walks off to come back with his
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rifle, and then for ten minutesthis has now been you know, disclosed.
Ten minutes the kid had been identified, I should say, the assassin,
and they could have prevented and takenhim out before he got a shot
off. But instead somebody in Washingtongave the go ahead, a coordinated decision,
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I mean, the standdown, tonot take the assassin out. So
that is why I am truly disgusted, because you cannot trust Washington, any
of our our leaders of the agenciesright now, because they purposely allowed before
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taking him out, which they shouldhave done. They shouldn't even allowed any
of you think of all the dignitariesthere, all the congressmen, all the
candidates. They shouldn't even allowed thatrally to go on once an hour before
they go, hey, you've gota shooter, you know, going up
on a building and getting prone totake his shot. So who was the
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person that said Oh, don't worry, you know, I know it's only
one hundred yards away from the president, but let him get some shots off
first at the president and tried tokill him before we take him out.
Somebody made that decision and who toldthem to not take the shots, and
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so that might we might never never. Oh, but the laughable part is,
oh, it was the Israelis,not the Israelis, the Iranians.
That's laughable. If I ran,if I ran, if Iran's going to
hire you know, assassins, it'snot going to be some twenty year old
kid you know who's wet behind theears, who you know. Actually,
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well, his bullet was on target. But again, by the hand of
God, Trump turned his head,you know, just a millisecond before,
so it only hit his here versusear versus a direct hit to a temple.
But this is this is of course, sadly and as just as I
said, disgustingly has made markets rally, although we're seeing a bit of a
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text sell off depends on what,Yeah, depends on the stocks that you're
looking at, exactly right, andif you wouldn't mind explaining that, But
the breath, the broader breath ofthe market, not the large weighted few
tech companies, but the broader breathof the market. You know, is
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it is green is rallying, isthere's a creating rotation upside, there's a
rotation, and you're seeing some othernames like small caps, which are smaller
sized companies actually have been rallying,not specifically after that. They were doing
a little bit before, but thencontinued on and then Wednesday you saw and
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this just goes to, you know, what we've been talking about, which
has been you know, we'll probablysee a little more volatility in the back
half of the year, especially aswe're getting closer to the election, because
there could there could be more efficenceon policy or potential policies are not be
coming up, or who's going tobe in power and what policies are going
to be taking place, and howis it an impact or effect certain companies
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or sectors of the market. Andyou saw some of that on Wednesday.
And what happened on Wednesday is itwas basically more rhetoric on the crackdown of
China, both from Biden and alsofrom Trump that was going across you know,
media stream, and you saw thetech companies, especially the chip companies
and the heavier weighted companies which pullout of the weight of SMP five hundred
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and NASDAK, which are you know, Nvidia and some other semiiconductor companies,
Apple, Microsoft, so on andso forth. But when you looked under
the hood, Yeah, when youlooked under the hood, specifically on Wednesday,
s and P five hundred as awhole was in the red. NASDAK
was down at one point over threepercent in the day. But you looked
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under the hood of all the otherconstitu constituents within that make up to s
and P five hundred or the NASDAC, and there was a bigger percentage of
them that were green, that wereactually positive for the day. But it
didn't matter because those big names thatI mentioned before have a heavier weight and
have a bigger slice of the pieand was dragging those indices down. So
the whole thought of hey, I'lljust put my money, Like why am
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I going to go out there andpick these you know, sector or them
specific mutual funds or try and pickthese stocks whatever, And I'm just gonna
put my money and invest it ina passive S and P five hundred index
fund or a Nasdaq index fund andlet it right because it's done so well.
Well, then you would have gottenhurt on Wednesday. And you'll see
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more of that when there's more talkon policy shifts, potential policy shifts or
sanctions or whatever the case may be, or if things specifically take place with
those individual names, which is justa handful of companies. So here's what's
crucially important. You know, mostpeople we find when we do our initial
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consultation, we find that they aren'ttruly diversified. And it's sad to me
that these are most of the timeadvisory accounts, which means that there's an
actual advisor that they're paying for,you know, their investment model that clearly
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doesn't understand what true diversification is.Diversification is not having multiple brands of mutual
funds, meaning oh, I've gotsome Vanguard, I got some black Rock,
I got some Fidelity, you know, I got t Row whatever the
case may be, I got Americanfunds super popular. Just because you're in
different fun families, different brands offunds does not mean you're diversified. Also,
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diversification of firm is not diversification.In fact, that usually makes correlation
and overlap and overweighting even worse.So now you have you know, three
or four different brands or fun families, and then you've got two or three
different you know, advisors or orportfolio managers like Joep and I, and
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your correlation and overlap is extremely high. And so when there's bad days,
they're really bad for you, andthen there were when there's good days,
they're also really good for you.But the point is is that when you're
retired, you can't afford a majorbad day, because what we often show
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is that if the market goes downfifty percent, it takes you one hundred
percent to get you back to whereyou were, and if the market averages
ten percent per year, it wouldtake you a decade to get back the
fifty percent that you're lost. You'relistening to John Scambray and Juseepi Veskani,
and we are certified portfolio managers thatspecialize in helping people who are retired,
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are about to retire and manage theirmoney. If you like your show called
nine one, six ninety six,seven thirty five hundred. So we were
talking a little bit about the assassinationof a great person, great family man,
and the attempted assassination of former PresidentTrump. But also some of the
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big news and headlines you know,last week were literally Biden, you know,
tells Biden is told by Obama andthis was on Thursday to step down
or or continued. I forget theexact headline on Thursday morning, but the
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pressure and then it's also coming fromNancy Pelosi, It's also coming from Chuck
Schumer, It's coming from you know, somebody else who you know, I
don't have very good things to say, Adam Schiff and and many many others
in the Democrat Party to step down. And now some of the headlines where
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Biden won't make it through the weekendas the as the incumbent candidate, and
that we'll see. I don't knowif it's as soon as the weekend,
but boy, that should definitely createsome volatility and some you know, reaction
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within the investment world, you know, if that does happen, because at
that time, do they then announcewho who the nuke? Is it?
Just Kamala? Is it Kamala withyou know Newsom or Gruesome Newsom or Michelle
Obama? Who is it? Buthere's what's funny. Unlike President Trump,
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in twenty twenty, who was primaried, you know, the Republicans who were
not unified at that time, youknow, made Trump, you know,
win the primary as the incumbent torun for being the forty sixth president.
Joe Biden as the current forty sixthpresident. The DNC you know, polled
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whatever they pulled and wouldn't allow anybodyto primary him to run against him.
So he was the presumptive candidate fromthe get go, while he was you
know, napping in his basement orwherever he naps, in his corvette or
whatever the case may be. Andso because of that here you then have
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you know, the situation they're in. But but again I think it was
because they want ineffectual meaning the dNC, the Democrat Party want ineffectual you
know, leaders, so that theunelected deep state, the bureaucracy can continue
to run like a shadow government,you know, all the decisions with taxpayer
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money, with Americans lives, andso I think there will be some volatility,
some tremendous market moves, maybe ashift to safety, maybe a shift
from this is preventing, this isproviding more uncertainty, more uncertainty. So
you know, if you think politicsand these types of things don't infect your
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investments. They do well, theydid primarily on Wednesday. It was all
about that on Wednesday. Yeah,on policy, yeah, sure was.
And so it's so crucial that youknow, you're you're astute, and you're
ahead of the game, and you'reyou're paying attention, especially if you're retired
and you're managing your money yourself,You've got to be at the helm,
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you know, from five or sixam in the morning. You know,
you know, reading as much asyou can, listening to as much as
you can, you know, following, you know things that are happening,
you know with the Fed, followingthe data that comes out, Following,
you know what the Treasury is doing. You know, before you make decisions
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on how to rebalance your portfolio orif it's time to rebalance your portfolio,
and if you're not doing that,then you absolutely may want to give people
like Giuseppe and I a try byat least just sitting down for a no
obligation consultation. And you can dothat by calling nine one six ninety six
seven thirty five hundred our offices inGranite Bay on the border of Roseville.
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That's here, College in Douglas,and I promise it will be a good
use of your time. And youknow, at the bare minimum, a
lot on how you know, weapproach things and how we've helped you know,
our clients navigate all this uncertainty.Well, the biggest thing is just
having you know, maybe a secondset of eyes running an analysis or putting
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together a plan. Maybe you havea plan and it's been a while since
it's been reviewed. Maybe you don'thave a plan, and this is a
good time because then you want thatto be a blueprint of what needs to
take place from here to take youto point A, from point A to
point B. And does your investmentand the assets that you've contributed towards those
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goals to bring you to point B? Are they aligned with that plan and
able to keep you on track orput you on track to achieve the goals
and wishes that you're hoping to achieve. Yeah. So many times people aren't
aware of the circumstances that led upto the previous recessions and the previous market
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corrections and all of those instances andleading indicators that were present before you know,
recessions, previous recessions in our history, and before you know, market
crashes in our history are at thosesame levels. And on top of that,
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one indassy, excuse me, notone indocy, but one study just
recently hit an over bought level forthe equity markets that has never been hit
as far as a red flag isconcerned for saying that, hey, the
S and P five hundred may beoverbought. Here now we look at valuations
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to say that the SNP is overbought, and I do believe that the SNP
is overbought just based on its earnings, its average earnings multiple, but there's
other indicators that are also suggesting thatequities are overbought. Although what we were
talking about moments ago, there's stillvalue out there. But asset allocation and
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true diversification is so important when you'vegot a very lofty market and you're looking
for you know, when the timeis to lock in profits, especially if
you don't get dividends or interest,or enough of dividends or interest, you
know, as part of your totalreturn in your portfolio. Now is the
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time. You can't time things perfectly. You don't have to hit the exact
top and then you sell and theexact bottom and then you buy. It's
about being proactive, not reactive.So many times it's after something happens.
Here's how most people handle their money. They see things going very well and
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they see the news about a particularcompany, maybe it's an Nvidia or something
of that nature. Maybe it's afund, and it's gone up, and
they get excited about it and theybuy it, and then we see,
you know, against them. Whathappens is a couple of comments from the
current president and the former president aboutChina, which most of the semiconductor stocks
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are tied to, you know,manufacturing that's related to Taiwan or China or
somewhere in Asia, and that effects, of course, those comments affected the
stock prices on those types of investments, and they went down. So now
you're going, Okay, I justbought Nvidio at one thirty one per share
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and now it's at one eighteen,and I'm worried it's going even lower,
so I sell it. So Ibought it high and then I sold it
low. And that's what most peopledo because they can't help it. You
know, they've probably bought too muchto begin with. In whatever that investment
is more of an emotional decision,right because they dream of you know,
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the two hundred, the one thousandpercent that it already made of it making
that for them, and then whenit goes down ten twenty percent like it
did, then they panic and allthey did was realize a ten or twenty
percent loss because instead of nibbling atthe position as a piece of their overall
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portfolio and then going, Okay,I'm intentionally not buying all of the shares
that I would buy because I know, oh, this is a volatile stock,
and I know there's so much subjectivethings that affect it that more than
likely it's going to present at aprice that will be less than what I
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just bought it at, and I'mgonna buy some more when it does that,
because I really want to own thisstock long term. Okay. That's
called dollar cost averaging. That's calledinvesting in a new position, you know,
at appropriate you know risk, youknow, uh, a level that
doesn't hurt your overall portfolio. Butagain, that's the opposite of what people
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do. And often that's because they'rejust investing, you know, as you
said, Giuseppe, on emotion withoutin the euphoria and the fear of missing
out, and so they want to. They want to jump on that train
that's been just chugging along, andthen as soon as you know, uh,
one of the one of the carsbehind the train gets derailed. They're
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they're jumping off. It stacks ontop of each other, but they're jumping
off. Reality is is often peoplebuy investments that don't even match their risk
tolerance or don't even match what goalsthey actually have, meaning they're going for
higher returns when they don't even needit, or more importantly, because they've
made mistakes in the past now they'reso worried about making a new mistake.
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They're in an investment like say allin money market or a CD that means
the draw downs that they're taking inretirement projected out with inflation and draw downs
increasing, means they're going to runout of money because they're drawing down six
seven, eight percent and they're onlyearning four to five percent because they're so
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afraid of losing another ten twenty percentby a bad investment to stay well.
We saw that in two thousand andeight, a lot of people pulled out
and then they never put their moneyback in exactly right, and they did
that in twenty two they did that. You know, even in twenty three
in the third quarter when the marketwas down ten percent, people went,
oh, that's when a lot ofthem come to us and go, Okay,
I can't do this anymore. I'veresisted forever. I need help.
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Fear is a bigger emotion than youfor you. And the reality is is,
don't watch your profits go up insmoke because you're emotionally tied to the
investment or you don't want to paytax. I got to tell you your
net after tax profit versus you know, using a loss is always a better
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situation. And so give us acall at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and we are certifiedportfolio managers that also believe that having a
plan is the most important and firstpart and step to having a successful investment
portfolio. And in fact, ifyou give us a call and come in
(22:49):
for a no obligation consultation, wewill do a written retirement plan analysis that
a lot of firms charge at leastone thousand dollars with absolutely no obligation whatsoever,
just to show you how much betterwe are than than than most at
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you know, handling people's money inretirement called nine six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Again that numbers ninesix nine six seven thirty five hundred.
You know, also a lot ofpeople probably don't realize that maybe they just
did an updated their plan one yearago or two years ago or three years
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ago, and the reality is isthat the inflation assumption was you know,
was probably projected to be like oneand a half percent because the last decade
was zero percent inflation, and nowit was nowhere near where it was.
Now nowhere near where it was.A lot a lot of the default plan,
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a lot of the plans had adefault of two percent, and now
it's pumped up to two point fivemaybe some somewhere two point seven. And
you think, ah, zero pointfive or point seven is not going to
make a difference. But we ranactual plan plans. Yeah, and then
just change that parameter and said,okay, what if we bump up to
three inflation by half a percent,half of one percent, how does it
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change the outcome? And you'd besurprised in how drastic you know, it
changes the outcome when you're planning fortwenty thirty thirty five years out in retirement
in the interim, you know,the first, two, three, five
years. No, not that much. Yeah, but when you go out
there, it compounds. But putit into numbers, right, So you
know, it used to be okay, when I retire, if I have
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a million bucks and I don't havea mortgage, and I don't have car
payments, and all I have ismy utilities, insurance and groceries and the
things we want to spend money on, whether it's travel or what you know,
on the grand kids or whatever thecase may be. Sixty to forty
portfolio, you can pull four percent, and you were in pretty good shape.
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And so but you know, ifyou were pulling four percent, you
know that's forty grand on a millionbucks, right. But now with the
cost of everything literally going through theroof, if you're pulling now sixty seventy
eighty grand off of that million,but you're only earning four percent, you
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know you're you're going to You're gonnaand and if you have twenty years left
in retirement or more or more,you're going to draw that down to Chances
are you run out of money,especially if there's an unforeseen expense, you
know, maybe there's a big one, you know, a big medical expense,
you know, long term care atyou know, or care of any
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kind at five to ten thousand dollarsa month, or you know, heck,
you go, oh well, I'mgoing to buy a fifty thousand dollars
truck, or I'm going to puton a new twenty five thousand dollars roof,
or my HVAC systems go out.And the point is is those things
are going to continue to happen inretirement. And so now or your homeowner
insurance tyes you have to switch overto the California Unfair Plan. Yeah,
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don't even get me started on thatone, because there is nothing fair about
that plan. My homeowner's insurance wentfrom three thousand dollars a year to just
under ten thousand dollars a year onthe California Unfair Plan. Too bad.
That wasn't a stock because you justoh yeah, oh yeah, I mean,
come on three return. Yeah,but oh my god, what an
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absolute joke. And you know that'sthe reality. I mean again, that's
something that if you did your plantwo or three years ago, you didn't
plan for your homeowner's insurance premiums togo up one hundred, two hundred,
three hundred percent. You didn't planfor your auto insurance premiums to go up
thirty to fifty percent. You didn'tplan for your medical insurance premiums to go
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up one hundred percent. You didn'tplan for groceries to go up one hundred
you know, plus percent. Andso the reality is that you had to
overstock on toilet paper now or getkilled trying to buy it. God,
what a laugh that was. Soso the reality is is if even if
you have a plan, if it'sfrom a couple three years ago, come
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on in, let us review it. We'll redo it for you for free,
just so you can make a decisionon if you know, working with
somebody like Giuseppe and I is avalue to you. We will prove our
value and why we are one ofthe top you know, money management and
(27:38):
planning firms in the area, socalled nine one six ninety six, seven
thirty five hundred. And we're nothigh pressure salespeople. We're not annuity salespeople
on a commission by the way,so we're not going to try to sell
you some product. We're literally goingto see if you know what you're doing
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can be improved upon, or ifit's already broke if we can help you
fix it. Yeah, what arethe pitfalls and what are the opportunities,
because now we do have a limitedopportunity for a major rebalance, right there
is there is, you know,a lot of value still in the stock
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market, but you got to bein the right stocks. There is a
lot of value in the bond market, but we believe you have to be
in individual bonds. If rates docome down, because you know, unemployment
is going up, it's when rightand recession looks eminent, or the economy
looks to be slipping, and soa rate decrease or a manipulation of rates
(28:47):
being decreased looks eminent, then bondprices are going to go up and it
will no longer be the right timeto buy bonds anymore. So don't let
large profits in stocks go way andmiss out large profits in bonds. That
opportunity to shift and rebalance go away. Most people wait until it's too late.
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They'll come in and go, hey, can I still get a you
know, yeah, a six percentbond and a five percent money market?
Yeah. No, that ended lastweek, And that's how quick it goes.
It doesn't there's no warning, youknow, except for looking at unemployment.
Unemployment is probably the only thing youshould look at on whether a recession
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is coming, and if recession iscoming, then our FED reacts, They
react after the fact, and thenyou know, they'll start doing things to
try to stimulate the economy, whichwill be a massive mistake for stocks and
for inflation, because without controlling spendingand borrowing, it will just be a
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temporary, you know, deflationary periodof recession that we're in and prices will
go through the roof. And thenon top of that, Jiuseppe, what
could they possibly do to us thatwould make matters even worse? Well,
to back up a second, justto your point, IMF International Monetary Fund
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actually put an article out of theirand Review of the United States and basically,
you know, I'm into a wholearticle which just to point some of
the highlights is need to control ourspending, right because the public, the
US public debt to GDP ratio isa warning flag to them, and if
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it continues on its path, itwill be well above the pre pandemic forecast,
which by twenty twenty nine to reachabout one hundred and ten percent,
okay, compared to where it wasin twenty twenty which was ninety eight point
seven percent, and so then whatis that going to do? Even them,
they said the Fed should not becutting rates soon. They should wait.
(31:07):
They can afford to wait and waituntil at least towards the end of
twenty twenty four. A lot ofthe rhetoric rhetoric out there, and the
market is betting that they'll cut ratesin stember their September meeting. But they're
saying they should wait. And thenumber one thing to kind of help pay
down this debt they're suggesting is raisetaxes, even raise taxes on those that
(31:33):
Biden has been pounding the table onof not raising taxes on households earning less
than four hundred thousand. They're saying, you don't have to raise taxes on
even those individuals. You have tohelp out, helpbout having Okay, great,
you've led in fourteen million people,many of which are convicted felons,
are already felons for coming into thecountry illegally and committed fraud when they said
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they were here for as asylum,and there's no danger going on to them
or their families from the country theyflee. How about just taxing the heck
out of those people instead of givingthem everything for free on the burden of
us. So just tax all thosepeople. So they're coming in here,
businesses are hiring labor. You know, where labor is needed, they're being
(32:20):
hired, so on and so forth. And that's always been the argument.
Well, you know, illegal immigrationactually helps keep wages down. Well think
about that. So it helps takemoney. What that means is it helps
take money out of the pockets oflong term Americans and American families that came
here the right way. Because youknow, any good American, you know
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their their ancestry. I don't knowwhat is it, three generation, four,
generation five, I'm only generation,your first general, your father's first
general. I'm first. My fathercame he was in the fourth fifth grade.
Right, no wonder English is terrible, not just easy. But the
point is is that we thank you. Tens of millions of people have come
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here successfully the right way. Soif you're going to allow people to break
the law, be felons, beunvetted, get work, and give them
free stuff, then at least taxthe heck out of it to not just
go Okay, not only are wegoing to give you for for being a
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convicted felon or an unconvicted felon,everything for free. We're not going to
just strap you know, that burdenonto our people that didn't do things illegally.
We're going to strap that burden onyou that are doing things illegally from
the get go. And what well, you see what I'm saying for use
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now, well you said my Englishwas about Tory. Well, when you
cross the border illegally, you're alreadya fella. I already get I'm just
joking, right, Okay, okay, just trying to find who's on that
first. We're just trying to findout who was on first. Yeah,
But the point is is that thereason why we need to raise taxes,
because we're giving away taxpayer money onthings that don't that are can increase the
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tax revenue by collecting taxes fairly,right, And if you is, it's
a proven financial fact. If youwant to generate more tax revenue, incentivize
business productivity, incentivize saw that moreconsumption, because more consumption leads to more
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tax revenue. Higher taxes themselves leadto less consumption, and then less consumption
leads to less revenue. Into thecoffers of the United States government, and
it's all about Okay, we knowall this stuff, Desseppi is going on,
obviously, you and I do.We don't we maybe we should?
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What is going on? I'll justput our head, you know, in
the sand and and and hide.But the reality is is there is there
is solutions for all of this.There is great opportunity through who has said
that through don't let a good crisisgo to waste, Well, sadly it
(35:22):
works the same way. And investments, there is incredible investment opportunities going on
right now. We were showing someof our retiree potential retiree and and about
to retire new clients you know,various UH charts and grafts and historical data.
(35:45):
But more importantly, we were showingthem real portfolios, real returns that
our clients have been getting and havegotten you know, through you know,
the things that we've done for them. And and the reality is is that
through this chaos and uncertainty, thereis a tremendous opportunity to rebalance and rebuild
(36:08):
your portfolio and live to fight,you know, for many many years to
come. But you can't wait,you can't procrastinate, you can't wait till
your stocks go down ten twenty thirtypercent, till bond prices go up ten
twenty percent, Till you know,the shift and the changes in where money
(36:30):
is flowing has already happened, it'sabout to happen, and is happening now.
There isn't going to be a neonsign. They're popping up. You
know, that's a great way toput it. There's nothing that just goes
Okay, everybody rotate it's a recession, or you know, bonds are no
longer or CDs are no longer payingfive percent, or whatever the case may
be. Two thousand and eight NBR, which is the organization National Board Economic
(36:57):
Research, who determines when a recessionactually had happened or or took place after
the fact. Yeah, and sotwo thousand and eight, when we were
going through all that turmoil, theyannounced it December two thousand and eight.
Yeah, wow, that's really great. Thank you. Bureau that probably has
you know, seven thousand you know, employees paid by taxpayers and has a
(37:21):
budget of you know, ten billiondollars a year to tell us stuff that
happens after the fact. Well,the other thing to point out, you
know, she just said, wewere in the workshop, our previous workshop
with you know, potential clients asfar as near retirement or retirees and some
of the past data and just someof the things that are out there currently.
The Federal Reserve, what is theircurrent thoughts on the market and recession.
(37:45):
And Jerome Palell has come out andsaid that there's nothing that indicates that
there's a recession. You know,to forecasts, and then we look back
in history and history, you know, the past doesn't predict the future,
but often rhymes Bernanke. There wastwo article clippings that I had put out
there, one in January two thouspower Point. Yeah, yeah, one
in January two thousand and eight whereBernanke says that there's no signs of US
(38:08):
recession and then and they're not worriedabout it. And then fast forward April
in two thousand and eight, whenwe were already going through this turmoil actually
the subprime crisis was taking place intwo thousand and seven. But then April
two thousand and eight, there's anews clipping Bernanke says, yeah, it
looks like there might be a potentialfour mild US recession. Yeah again,
(38:32):
you know, all the FED hasever done is break the system. And
sadly, there's been a couple oftimes in you know, in a long
history of having a central banking youknow process and a chairman of the central
bank, which is the Federal Reservebanks. Okay, but most of the
(38:54):
time they don't know what they're doing, and of course they they you know,
talk all this mumbo jumbo, andthe reality is they make bad monetary
decisions because they don't get and haveno effect on the root cause of inflation
or high unemployment or low unemployment,which is holicies spending, which is spending
(39:20):
at the federal level. It's notspending by the consumer that infects inflation.
Did you hear that? I thinkTrump and I don't know if it's legit
or not, but looking potentially atJamie Diamond to be the FED chairman makes
once the term is up from Powell. Yeah, I mean again, think
about this, Okay, I wonderif you would actually take that. You
(39:42):
have you know, you know,a moron, you know group of people.
And the reason why I can saythat is, by the way,
one of the Federal Reserve Board presidentswas on the board of guess which bank
in California, guess which bank andhelp them to buy long dated bonds at
(40:08):
least helped in those decisions when interestrates were at record lows. So clearly
these people that are part of thethink tank. Yes, there's there's there's
only what twelve presidents, right,and because there's twelve basic you know,
(40:29):
federal reserve banks, and so there'stwelve presidents. The president out of San
Francisco was on the board of SiliconValley Bank. Silicon Valley Bank was too
stupid, and that president was toostupid to know that you don't buy the
long bond when interest rates are atrecord lows, because when interest rates go
(40:53):
up, then the value of thosebonds will set a record the other way
down. And then if your depositorscan get higher interest rates elsewhere, they're
going to pull their deposits. Andthen guess what, you have to sell
the bonds at a loss, andnow you're bankrupt. And here is a
(41:14):
Federal Reserve Board president on the boardof Silicon Valley Bank who was too stupid
to know that you don't buy longbonds with depositor reserves when interest rates are
at record loss. So on thatnote of the term that you used a
few times stupid. I wonder ifyou read your book by low Sell high
(41:35):
stupid. Clearly they did not.Clearly they did not, and you know,
in all serious and that was veryserious. That The sad reality is
is that the FED has always donea better job of creating recession than preventing
recession. And the reality is untilyou have the you know what, let's
(42:00):
just say, the hutzpa to dealwith and out of control you know,
Congress that has the power of thepurse without dealing with an out of control
president who believes that by executive orderyou can just go up, I forgive
a trillion dollars here up, youcan have a trillion dollars there, which
(42:22):
no president has that authority. Butif you don't deal with that and say,
hey, listen, Congress, listen, you know current administration, there
is nothing the Central Bank can dothat will prevent inflation as long as you
keep printing and giving away money tothings that don't generate tax revenue, two
(42:46):
things that don't contribute to our societyon the same token, they can't continue
to create this moral hazard, whichis you brought up Silicon Valley Bank,
and what happened there, and theyprovided a backstop. They already have FDA
see insurance for depositors, which depositorsgo in and they have to they well
know that I put my money inthere if it's more than two hundred and
(43:07):
fifty thousand, right, if Ihave five million dollars, you better believe
I'm going to be asking questions onhow was my five million dollars protected?
And FDIC insurance should be explaining,say, depending on you know, the
way it's set up and what thecoverage is, but doesn't matter. They
said, Okay, we're going togo in, we're going to create this
(43:28):
new new department, and we're goingto backstop. And so all depositors,
whether you had way above the FDIClimits, you're going to get your money
back. And so what does thattell to other corporations out there or banks
that I want to try it?They want to try these risky things to
say, hey maybe we can makesome big profits. Yeah, go ahead
and default. We'll we'll just becausegovernment's going to ever make we'll just strap
(43:51):
it to taxpayers. But there aresolutions. There are solutions for keeping up
with inflation and being ahead of thecurve for all of these mistakes being made
by our government, and you needto call nine one six nine sixty seven
thirty five hundred so we can showyou how we do exactly that help you
with solutions to combat these things.So hope you enjoyed listening to the wise
(44:15):
money guys, John Scambray and toSepievskani. Have a wonderful rest of your
weekend, and come back and giveus a listen next week. By all,
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show isbrought to you by One Source of Wealth
Management SEC Licensed three one nine zeroseven eight. For disclosures and more information,
visit our website One Source WM dotcom or call nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. Welcometo the Wise Money Guys Radio Show.
(00:20):
I'm your co host John Scambray andI'm here with my partner Deceppe Vescani,
and we are certified portfolio managers thatspecialize in helping people who are retired are
about to retire manage their money.If you like our show and or have
a question or want to get togetherfor a no obligation consultation, which we
highly recommend, called nine one sixnine six seven thirty five hundred. Again
(00:43):
that numbers nine one six nine sixseven thirty five hundred. So we absolutely
have to start this show off becauseon a very disturbing, angering, just
disgusting, you know topic that youknow, happened right after we aired last
(01:07):
week Saturday Saturday, and that's theassassin the assassination attempt of former President Trump,
you know, the number one candidatefor becoming and the bystanders, the
forty seventh president and That's why Isay the assassin and not what you keep
(01:32):
hearing, Oh, an assassination attempt. No, it wasn't an attempt.
There was an assassination, Thanks toGod, it was not successful. Also
on murdering President Trump, but itstill was successful on murdering a tremendous family
(01:53):
man and and and guy fireman youknow, husband too, and that.
So the assassin isn't an attempted assassin. He is an assassin. But why
I'm just utterly disgusted. And Idon't care if it was Obama or or
(02:14):
Biden or Trump. The fact thatour top cops meaning in the cross I
don't care who the person was inthe crossairs. I would still be disgusted,
even though you know I'm pro Trump, I would still be disgusted and
feel the identical same way if itwas the opposite person, because the fact
(02:36):
that they had this dude, thisvile piece of filth. Thankfully, you
know, he was eliminated, gothis head blown apart because that's what he
deserved. Thankfully he was eliminated.But the fact is that they let it
happen. Now, I don't knowwhat's going to come out. You know,
(02:57):
obviously there's all kinds of conspiracy theories. But the reality is this morning
on the news, repeated from earlierin the week, the videos of the
kid an hour before, literally casingthe building, going to the ladder where
he's gonna go up, and thenhe walks off to come back with his
(03:22):
rifle, and then for ten minutesthis has now been you know, disclosed.
Ten minutes the kid had been identified, I should say, the assassin,
and they could have prevented and takenhim out before he got a shot
off. But instead somebody in Washingtongave the go ahead, a coordinated decision,
(03:52):
I mean, the standdown, tonot take the assassin out. So
that is why I am truly disgusted, because you cannot trust Washington, any
of our our leaders of the agenciesright now, because they purposely allowed before
(04:14):
taking him out, which they shouldhave done. They shouldn't even allowed any
of you think of all the dignitariesthere, all the congressmen, all the
candidates. They shouldn't even allowed thatrally to go on once an hour before
they go, hey, you've gota shooter, you know, going up
on a building and getting prone totake his shot. So who was the
(04:40):
person that said Oh, don't worry, you know, I know it's only
one hundred yards away from the president, but let him get some shots off
first at the president and tried tokill him before we take him out.
Somebody made that decision and who toldthem to not take the shots, and
(05:00):
so that might we might never never. Oh, but the laughable part is,
oh, it was the Israelis,not the Israelis, the Iranians.
That's laughable. If I ran,if I ran, if Iran's going to
hire you know, assassins, it'snot going to be some twenty year old
kid you know who's wet behind theears, who you know. Actually,
(05:26):
well, his bullet was on target. But again, by the hand of
God, Trump turned his head,you know, just a millisecond before,
so it only hit his here versusear versus a direct hit to a temple.
But this is this is of course, sadly and as just as I
said, disgustingly has made markets rally, although we're seeing a bit of a
(05:49):
text sell off depends on what,Yeah, depends on the stocks that you're
looking at, exactly right, andif you wouldn't mind explaining that, But
the breath, the broader breath ofthe market, not the large weighted few
tech companies, but the broader breathof the market. You know, is
(06:09):
it is green is rallying, isthere's a creating rotation upside, there's a
rotation, and you're seeing some othernames like small caps, which are smaller
sized companies actually have been rallying,not specifically after that. They were doing
a little bit before, but thencontinued on and then Wednesday you saw and
(06:30):
this just goes to, you know, what we've been talking about, which
has been you know, we'll probablysee a little more volatility in the back
half of the year, especially aswe're getting closer to the election, because
there could there could be more efficenceon policy or potential policies are not be
coming up, or who's going tobe in power and what policies are going
to be taking place, and howis it an impact or effect certain companies
(06:54):
or sectors of the market. Andyou saw some of that on Wednesday.
And what happened on Wednesday is itwas basically more rhetoric on the crackdown of
China, both from Biden and alsofrom Trump that was going across you know,
media stream, and you saw thetech companies, especially the chip companies
and the heavier weighted companies which pullout of the weight of SMP five hundred
(07:18):
and NASDAK, which are you know, Nvidia and some other semiiconductor companies,
Apple, Microsoft, so on andso forth. But when you looked under
the hood, Yeah, when youlooked under the hood, specifically on Wednesday,
s and P five hundred as awhole was in the red. NASDAK
was down at one point over threepercent in the day. But you looked
(07:42):
under the hood of all the otherconstitu constituents within that make up to s
and P five hundred or the NASDAC, and there was a bigger percentage of
them that were green, that wereactually positive for the day. But it
didn't matter because those big names thatI mentioned before have a heavier weight and
have a bigger slice of the pieand was dragging those indices down. So
the whole thought of hey, I'lljust put my money, Like why am
(08:05):
I going to go out there andpick these you know, sector or them
specific mutual funds or try and pickthese stocks whatever, And I'm just gonna
put my money and invest it ina passive S and P five hundred index
fund or a Nasdaq index fund andlet it right because it's done so well.
Well, then you would have gottenhurt on Wednesday. And you'll see
(08:26):
more of that when there's more talkon policy shifts, potential policy shifts or
sanctions or whatever the case may be, or if things specifically take place with
those individual names, which is justa handful of companies. So here's what's
crucially important. You know, mostpeople we find when we do our initial
(08:48):
consultation, we find that they aren'ttruly diversified. And it's sad to me
that these are most of the timeadvisory accounts, which means that there's an
actual advisor that they're paying for,you know, their investment model that clearly
(09:09):
doesn't understand what true diversification is.Diversification is not having multiple brands of mutual
funds, meaning oh, I've gotsome Vanguard, I got some black Rock,
I got some Fidelity, you know, I got t Row whatever the
case may be, I got Americanfunds super popular. Just because you're in
different fun families, different brands offunds does not mean you're diversified. Also,
(09:35):
diversification of firm is not diversification.In fact, that usually makes correlation
and overlap and overweighting even worse.So now you have you know, three
or four different brands or fun families, and then you've got two or three
different you know, advisors or orportfolio managers like Joep and I, and
(10:01):
your correlation and overlap is extremely high. And so when there's bad days,
they're really bad for you, andthen there were when there's good days,
they're also really good for you.But the point is is that when you're
retired, you can't afford a majorbad day, because what we often show
(10:22):
is that if the market goes downfifty percent, it takes you one hundred
percent to get you back to whereyou were, and if the market averages
ten percent per year, it wouldtake you a decade to get back the
fifty percent that you're lost. You'relistening to John Scambray and Juseepi Veskani,
and we are certified portfolio managers thatspecialize in helping people who are retired,
(10:46):
are about to retire and manage theirmoney. If you like your show called
nine one, six ninety six,seven thirty five hundred. So we were
talking a little bit about the assassinationof a great person, great family man,
and the attempted assassination of former PresidentTrump. But also some of the
(11:07):
big news and headlines you know,last week were literally Biden, you know,
tells Biden is told by Obama andthis was on Thursday to step down
or or continued. I forget theexact headline on Thursday morning, but the
(11:30):
pressure and then it's also coming fromNancy Pelosi, It's also coming from Chuck
Schumer, It's coming from you know, somebody else who you know, I
don't have very good things to say, Adam Schiff and and many many others
in the Democrat Party to step down. And now some of the headlines where
(11:52):
Biden won't make it through the weekendas the as the incumbent candidate, and
that we'll see. I don't knowif it's as soon as the weekend,
but boy, that should definitely createsome volatility and some you know, reaction
(12:13):
within the investment world, you know, if that does happen, because at
that time, do they then announcewho who the nuke? Is it?
Just Kamala? Is it Kamala withyou know Newsom or Gruesome Newsom or Michelle
Obama? Who is it? Buthere's what's funny. Unlike President Trump,
(12:35):
in twenty twenty, who was primaried, you know, the Republicans who were
not unified at that time, youknow, made Trump, you know,
win the primary as the incumbent torun for being the forty sixth president.
Joe Biden as the current forty sixthpresident. The DNC you know, polled
(12:58):
whatever they pulled and wouldn't allow anybodyto primary him to run against him.
So he was the presumptive candidate fromthe get go, while he was you
know, napping in his basement orwherever he naps, in his corvette or
whatever the case may be. Andso because of that here you then have
(13:22):
you know, the situation they're in. But but again I think it was
because they want ineffectual meaning the dNC, the Democrat Party want ineffectual you
know, leaders, so that theunelected deep state, the bureaucracy can continue
to run like a shadow government,you know, all the decisions with taxpayer
(13:46):
money, with Americans lives, andso I think there will be some volatility,
some tremendous market moves, maybe ashift to safety, maybe a shift
from this is preventing, this isproviding more uncertainty, more uncertainty. So
you know, if you think politicsand these types of things don't infect your
(14:07):
investments. They do well, theydid primarily on Wednesday. It was all
about that on Wednesday. Yeah,on policy, yeah, sure was.
And so it's so crucial that youknow, you're you're astute, and you're
ahead of the game, and you'reyou're paying attention, especially if you're retired
and you're managing your money yourself,You've got to be at the helm,
(14:31):
you know, from five or sixam in the morning. You know,
you know, reading as much asyou can, listening to as much as
you can, you know, following, you know things that are happening,
you know with the Fed, followingthe data that comes out, Following,
you know what the Treasury is doing. You know, before you make decisions
(14:52):
on how to rebalance your portfolio orif it's time to rebalance your portfolio,
and if you're not doing that,then you absolutely may want to give people
like Giuseppe and I a try byat least just sitting down for a no
obligation consultation. And you can dothat by calling nine one six ninety six
seven thirty five hundred our offices inGranite Bay on the border of Roseville.
(15:16):
That's here, College in Douglas,and I promise it will be a good
use of your time. And youknow, at the bare minimum, a
lot on how you know, weapproach things and how we've helped you know,
our clients navigate all this uncertainty.Well, the biggest thing is just
having you know, maybe a secondset of eyes running an analysis or putting
(15:39):
together a plan. Maybe you havea plan and it's been a while since
it's been reviewed. Maybe you don'thave a plan, and this is a
good time because then you want thatto be a blueprint of what needs to
take place from here to take youto point A, from point A to
point B. And does your investmentand the assets that you've contributed towards those
(16:02):
goals to bring you to point B? Are they aligned with that plan and
able to keep you on track orput you on track to achieve the goals
and wishes that you're hoping to achieve. Yeah. So many times people aren't
aware of the circumstances that led upto the previous recessions and the previous market
(16:25):
corrections and all of those instances andleading indicators that were present before you know,
recessions, previous recessions in our history, and before you know, market
crashes in our history are at thosesame levels. And on top of that,
(16:45):
one indassy, excuse me, notone indocy, but one study just
recently hit an over bought level forthe equity markets that has never been hit
as far as a red flag isconcerned for saying that, hey, the
S and P five hundred may beoverbought. Here now we look at valuations
(17:08):
to say that the SNP is overbought, and I do believe that the SNP
is overbought just based on its earnings, its average earnings multiple, but there's
other indicators that are also suggesting thatequities are overbought. Although what we were
talking about moments ago, there's stillvalue out there. But asset allocation and
(17:33):
true diversification is so important when you'vegot a very lofty market and you're looking
for you know, when the timeis to lock in profits, especially if
you don't get dividends or interest,or enough of dividends or interest, you
know, as part of your totalreturn in your portfolio. Now is the
(17:55):
time. You can't time things perfectly. You don't have to hit the exact
top and then you sell and theexact bottom and then you buy. It's
about being proactive, not reactive.So many times it's after something happens.
Here's how most people handle their money. They see things going very well and
(18:18):
they see the news about a particularcompany, maybe it's an Nvidia or something
of that nature. Maybe it's afund, and it's gone up, and
they get excited about it and theybuy it, and then we see,
you know, against them. Whathappens is a couple of comments from the
current president and the former president aboutChina, which most of the semiconductor stocks
(18:41):
are tied to, you know,manufacturing that's related to Taiwan or China or
somewhere in Asia, and that effects, of course, those comments affected the
stock prices on those types of investments, and they went down. So now
you're going, Okay, I justbought Nvidio at one thirty one per share
(19:03):
and now it's at one eighteen,and I'm worried it's going even lower,
so I sell it. So Ibought it high and then I sold it
low. And that's what most peopledo because they can't help it. You
know, they've probably bought too muchto begin with. In whatever that investment
is more of an emotional decision,right because they dream of you know,
(19:29):
the two hundred, the one thousandpercent that it already made of it making
that for them, and then whenit goes down ten twenty percent like it
did, then they panic and allthey did was realize a ten or twenty
percent loss because instead of nibbling atthe position as a piece of their overall
(19:51):
portfolio and then going, Okay,I'm intentionally not buying all of the shares
that I would buy because I know, oh, this is a volatile stock,
and I know there's so much subjectivethings that affect it that more than
likely it's going to present at aprice that will be less than what I
(20:11):
just bought it at, and I'mgonna buy some more when it does that,
because I really want to own thisstock long term. Okay. That's
called dollar cost averaging. That's calledinvesting in a new position, you know,
at appropriate you know risk, youknow, uh, a level that
doesn't hurt your overall portfolio. Butagain, that's the opposite of what people
(20:34):
do. And often that's because they'rejust investing, you know, as you
said, Giuseppe, on emotion withoutin the euphoria and the fear of missing
out, and so they want to. They want to jump on that train
that's been just chugging along, andthen as soon as you know, uh,
one of the one of the carsbehind the train gets derailed. They're
(20:56):
they're jumping off. It stacks ontop of each other, but they're jumping
off. Reality is is often peoplebuy investments that don't even match their risk
tolerance or don't even match what goalsthey actually have, meaning they're going for
higher returns when they don't even needit, or more importantly, because they've
made mistakes in the past now they'reso worried about making a new mistake.
(21:19):
They're in an investment like say allin money market or a CD that means
the draw downs that they're taking inretirement projected out with inflation and draw downs
increasing, means they're going to runout of money because they're drawing down six
seven, eight percent and they're onlyearning four to five percent because they're so
(21:40):
afraid of losing another ten twenty percentby a bad investment to stay well.
We saw that in two thousand andeight, a lot of people pulled out
and then they never put their moneyback in exactly right, and they did
that in twenty two they did that. You know, even in twenty three
in the third quarter when the marketwas down ten percent, people went,
oh, that's when a lot ofthem come to us and go, Okay,
I can't do this anymore. I'veresisted forever. I need help.
(22:04):
Fear is a bigger emotion than youfor you. And the reality is is,
don't watch your profits go up insmoke because you're emotionally tied to the
investment or you don't want to paytax. I got to tell you your
net after tax profit versus you know, using a loss is always a better
(22:27):
situation. And so give us acall at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and we are certifiedportfolio managers that also believe that having a
plan is the most important and firstpart and step to having a successful investment
portfolio. And in fact, ifyou give us a call and come in
(22:49):
for a no obligation consultation, wewill do a written retirement plan analysis that
a lot of firms charge at leastone thousand dollars with absolutely no obligation whatsoever,
just to show you how much betterwe are than than than most at
(23:11):
you know, handling people's money inretirement called nine six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Again that numbers ninesix nine six seven thirty five hundred.
You know, also a lot ofpeople probably don't realize that maybe they just
did an updated their plan one yearago or two years ago or three years
(23:33):
ago, and the reality is isthat the inflation assumption was you know,
was probably projected to be like oneand a half percent because the last decade
was zero percent inflation, and nowit was nowhere near where it was.
Now nowhere near where it was.A lot a lot of the default plan,
(23:55):
a lot of the plans had adefault of two percent, and now
it's pumped up to two point fivemaybe some somewhere two point seven. And
you think, ah, zero pointfive or point seven is not going to
make a difference. But we ranactual plan plans. Yeah, and then
just change that parameter and said,okay, what if we bump up to
three inflation by half a percent,half of one percent, how does it
(24:18):
change the outcome? And you'd besurprised in how drastic you know, it
changes the outcome when you're planning fortwenty thirty thirty five years out in retirement
in the interim, you know,the first, two, three, five
years. No, not that much. Yeah, but when you go out
there, it compounds. But putit into numbers, right, So you
know, it used to be okay, when I retire, if I have
(24:41):
a million bucks and I don't havea mortgage, and I don't have car
payments, and all I have ismy utilities, insurance and groceries and the
things we want to spend money on, whether it's travel or what you know,
on the grand kids or whatever thecase may be. Sixty to forty
portfolio, you can pull four percent, and you were in pretty good shape.
(25:02):
And so but you know, ifyou were pulling four percent, you
know that's forty grand on a millionbucks, right. But now with the
cost of everything literally going through theroof, if you're pulling now sixty seventy
eighty grand off of that million,but you're only earning four percent, you
(25:22):
know you're you're going to You're gonnaand and if you have twenty years left
in retirement or more or more,you're going to draw that down to Chances
are you run out of money,especially if there's an unforeseen expense, you
know, maybe there's a big one, you know, a big medical expense,
you know, long term care atyou know, or care of any
(25:44):
kind at five to ten thousand dollarsa month, or you know, heck,
you go, oh well, I'mgoing to buy a fifty thousand dollars
truck, or I'm going to puton a new twenty five thousand dollars roof,
or my HVAC systems go out.And the point is is those things
are going to continue to happen inretirement. And so now or your homeowner
insurance tyes you have to switch overto the California Unfair Plan. Yeah,
(26:07):
don't even get me started on thatone, because there is nothing fair about
that plan. My homeowner's insurance wentfrom three thousand dollars a year to just
under ten thousand dollars a year onthe California Unfair Plan. Too bad.
That wasn't a stock because you justoh yeah, oh yeah, I mean,
come on three return. Yeah,but oh my god, what an
(26:30):
absolute joke. And you know that'sthe reality. I mean again, that's
something that if you did your plantwo or three years ago, you didn't
plan for your homeowner's insurance premiums togo up one hundred, two hundred,
three hundred percent. You didn't planfor your auto insurance premiums to go up
thirty to fifty percent. You didn'tplan for your medical insurance premiums to go
(26:55):
up one hundred percent. You didn'tplan for groceries to go up one hundred
you know, plus percent. Andso the reality is that you had to
overstock on toilet paper now or getkilled trying to buy it. God,
what a laugh that was. Soso the reality is is if even if
you have a plan, if it'sfrom a couple three years ago, come
(27:18):
on in, let us review it. We'll redo it for you for free,
just so you can make a decisionon if you know, working with
somebody like Giuseppe and I is avalue to you. We will prove our
value and why we are one ofthe top you know, money management and
(27:38):
planning firms in the area, socalled nine one six ninety six, seven
thirty five hundred. And we're nothigh pressure salespeople. We're not annuity salespeople
on a commission by the way,so we're not going to try to sell
you some product. We're literally goingto see if you know what you're doing
(28:00):
can be improved upon, or ifit's already broke if we can help you
fix it. Yeah, what arethe pitfalls and what are the opportunities,
because now we do have a limitedopportunity for a major rebalance, right there
is there is, you know,a lot of value still in the stock
(28:21):
market, but you got to bein the right stocks. There is a
lot of value in the bond market, but we believe you have to be
in individual bonds. If rates docome down, because you know, unemployment
is going up, it's when rightand recession looks eminent, or the economy
looks to be slipping, and soa rate decrease or a manipulation of rates
(28:47):
being decreased looks eminent, then bondprices are going to go up and it
will no longer be the right timeto buy bonds anymore. So don't let
large profits in stocks go way andmiss out large profits in bonds. That
opportunity to shift and rebalance go away. Most people wait until it's too late.
(29:10):
They'll come in and go, hey, can I still get a you
know, yeah, a six percentbond and a five percent money market?
Yeah. No, that ended lastweek, And that's how quick it goes.
It doesn't there's no warning, youknow, except for looking at unemployment.
Unemployment is probably the only thing youshould look at on whether a recession
(29:33):
is coming, and if recession iscoming, then our FED reacts, They
react after the fact, and thenyou know, they'll start doing things to
try to stimulate the economy, whichwill be a massive mistake for stocks and
for inflation, because without controlling spendingand borrowing, it will just be a
(29:57):
temporary, you know, deflationary periodof recession that we're in and prices will
go through the roof. And thenon top of that, Jiuseppe, what
could they possibly do to us thatwould make matters even worse? Well,
to back up a second, justto your point, IMF International Monetary Fund
(30:18):
actually put an article out of theirand Review of the United States and basically,
you know, I'm into a wholearticle which just to point some of
the highlights is need to control ourspending, right because the public, the
US public debt to GDP ratio isa warning flag to them, and if
(30:41):
it continues on its path, itwill be well above the pre pandemic forecast,
which by twenty twenty nine to reachabout one hundred and ten percent,
okay, compared to where it wasin twenty twenty which was ninety eight point
seven percent, and so then whatis that going to do? Even them,
they said the Fed should not becutting rates soon. They should wait.
(31:07):
They can afford to wait and waituntil at least towards the end of
twenty twenty four. A lot ofthe rhetoric rhetoric out there, and the
market is betting that they'll cut ratesin stember their September meeting. But they're
saying they should wait. And thenumber one thing to kind of help pay
down this debt they're suggesting is raisetaxes, even raise taxes on those that
(31:33):
Biden has been pounding the table onof not raising taxes on households earning less
than four hundred thousand. They're saying, you don't have to raise taxes on
even those individuals. You have tohelp out, helpbout having Okay, great,
you've led in fourteen million people,many of which are convicted felons,
are already felons for coming into thecountry illegally and committed fraud when they said
(31:59):
they were here for as asylum,and there's no danger going on to them
or their families from the country theyflee. How about just taxing the heck
out of those people instead of givingthem everything for free on the burden of
us. So just tax all thosepeople. So they're coming in here,
businesses are hiring labor. You know, where labor is needed, they're being
(32:20):
hired, so on and so forth. And that's always been the argument.
Well, you know, illegal immigrationactually helps keep wages down. Well think
about that. So it helps takemoney. What that means is it helps
take money out of the pockets oflong term Americans and American families that came
here the right way. Because youknow, any good American, you know
(32:45):
their their ancestry. I don't knowwhat is it, three generation, four,
generation five, I'm only generation,your first general, your father's first
general. I'm first. My fathercame he was in the fourth fifth grade.
Right, no wonder English is terrible, not just easy. But the
point is is that we thank you. Tens of millions of people have come
(33:09):
here successfully the right way. Soif you're going to allow people to break
the law, be felons, beunvetted, get work, and give them
free stuff, then at least taxthe heck out of it to not just
go Okay, not only are wegoing to give you for for being a
(33:30):
convicted felon or an unconvicted felon,everything for free. We're not going to
just strap you know, that burdenonto our people that didn't do things illegally.
We're going to strap that burden onyou that are doing things illegally from
the get go. And what well, you see what I'm saying for use
(33:51):
now, well you said my Englishwas about Tory. Well, when you
cross the border illegally, you're alreadya fella. I already get I'm just
joking, right, Okay, okay, just trying to find who's on that
first. We're just trying to findout who was on first. Yeah,
But the point is is that thereason why we need to raise taxes,
because we're giving away taxpayer money onthings that don't that are can increase the
(34:19):
tax revenue by collecting taxes fairly,right, And if you is, it's
a proven financial fact. If youwant to generate more tax revenue, incentivize
business productivity, incentivize saw that moreconsumption, because more consumption leads to more
(34:39):
tax revenue. Higher taxes themselves leadto less consumption, and then less consumption
leads to less revenue. Into thecoffers of the United States government, and
it's all about Okay, we knowall this stuff, Desseppi is going on,
obviously, you and I do.We don't we maybe we should?
(35:02):
What is going on? I'll justput our head, you know, in
the sand and and and hide.But the reality is is there is there
is solutions for all of this.There is great opportunity through who has said
that through don't let a good crisisgo to waste, Well, sadly it
(35:22):
works the same way. And investments, there is incredible investment opportunities going on
right now. We were showing someof our retiree potential retiree and and about
to retire new clients you know,various UH charts and grafts and historical data.
(35:45):
But more importantly, we were showingthem real portfolios, real returns that
our clients have been getting and havegotten you know, through you know,
the things that we've done for them. And and the reality is is that
through this chaos and uncertainty, thereis a tremendous opportunity to rebalance and rebuild
(36:08):
your portfolio and live to fight,you know, for many many years to
come. But you can't wait,you can't procrastinate, you can't wait till
your stocks go down ten twenty thirtypercent, till bond prices go up ten
twenty percent, Till you know,the shift and the changes in where money
(36:30):
is flowing has already happened, it'sabout to happen, and is happening now.
There isn't going to be a neonsign. They're popping up. You
know, that's a great way toput it. There's nothing that just goes
Okay, everybody rotate it's a recession, or you know, bonds are no
longer or CDs are no longer payingfive percent, or whatever the case may
be. Two thousand and eight NBR, which is the organization National Board Economic
(36:57):
Research, who determines when a recessionactually had happened or or took place after
the fact. Yeah, and sotwo thousand and eight, when we were
going through all that turmoil, theyannounced it December two thousand and eight.
Yeah, wow, that's really great. Thank you. Bureau that probably has
you know, seven thousand you know, employees paid by taxpayers and has a
(37:21):
budget of you know, ten billiondollars a year to tell us stuff that
happens after the fact. Well,the other thing to point out, you
know, she just said, wewere in the workshop, our previous workshop
with you know, potential clients asfar as near retirement or retirees and some
of the past data and just someof the things that are out there currently.
The Federal Reserve, what is theircurrent thoughts on the market and recession.
(37:45):
And Jerome Palell has come out andsaid that there's nothing that indicates that
there's a recession. You know,to forecasts, and then we look back
in history and history, you know, the past doesn't predict the future,
but often rhymes Bernanke. There wastwo article clippings that I had put out
there, one in January two thouspower Point. Yeah, yeah, one
in January two thousand and eight whereBernanke says that there's no signs of US
(38:08):
recession and then and they're not worriedabout it. And then fast forward April
in two thousand and eight, whenwe were already going through this turmoil actually
the subprime crisis was taking place intwo thousand and seven. But then April
two thousand and eight, there's anews clipping Bernanke says, yeah, it
looks like there might be a potentialfour mild US recession. Yeah again,
(38:32):
you know, all the FED hasever done is break the system. And
sadly, there's been a couple oftimes in you know, in a long
history of having a central banking youknow process and a chairman of the central
bank, which is the Federal Reservebanks. Okay, but most of the
(38:54):
time they don't know what they're doing, and of course they they you know,
talk all this mumbo jumbo, andthe reality is they make bad monetary
decisions because they don't get and haveno effect on the root cause of inflation
or high unemployment or low unemployment,which is holicies spending, which is spending
(39:20):
at the federal level. It's notspending by the consumer that infects inflation.
Did you hear that? I thinkTrump and I don't know if it's legit
or not, but looking potentially atJamie Diamond to be the FED chairman makes
once the term is up from Powell. Yeah, I mean again, think
about this, Okay, I wonderif you would actually take that. You
(39:42):
have you know, you know,a moron, you know group of people.
And the reason why I can saythat is, by the way,
one of the Federal Reserve Board presidentswas on the board of guess which bank
in California, guess which bank andhelp them to buy long dated bonds at
(40:08):
least helped in those decisions when interestrates were at record lows. So clearly
these people that are part of thethink tank. Yes, there's there's there's
only what twelve presidents, right,and because there's twelve basic you know,
(40:29):
federal reserve banks, and so there'stwelve presidents. The president out of San
Francisco was on the board of SiliconValley Bank. Silicon Valley Bank was too
stupid, and that president was toostupid to know that you don't buy the
long bond when interest rates are atrecord lows, because when interest rates go
(40:53):
up, then the value of thosebonds will set a record the other way
down. And then if your depositorscan get higher interest rates elsewhere, they're
going to pull their deposits. Andthen guess what, you have to sell
the bonds at a loss, andnow you're bankrupt. And here is a
(41:14):
Federal Reserve Board president on the boardof Silicon Valley Bank who was too stupid
to know that you don't buy longbonds with depositor reserves when interest rates are
at record loss. So on thatnote of the term that you used a
few times stupid. I wonder ifyou read your book by low Sell high
(41:35):
stupid. Clearly they did not.Clearly they did not, and you know,
in all serious and that was veryserious. That The sad reality is
is that the FED has always donea better job of creating recession than preventing
recession. And the reality is untilyou have the you know what, let's
(42:00):
just say, the hutzpa to dealwith and out of control you know,
Congress that has the power of thepurse without dealing with an out of control
president who believes that by executive orderyou can just go up, I forgive
a trillion dollars here up, youcan have a trillion dollars there, which
(42:22):
no president has that authority. Butif you don't deal with that and say,
hey, listen, Congress, listen, you know current administration, there
is nothing the Central Bank can dothat will prevent inflation as long as you
keep printing and giving away money tothings that don't generate tax revenue, two
(42:46):
things that don't contribute to our societyon the same token, they can't continue
to create this moral hazard, whichis you brought up Silicon Valley Bank,
and what happened there, and theyprovided a backstop. They already have FDA
see insurance for depositors, which depositorsgo in and they have to they well
know that I put my money inthere if it's more than two hundred and
(43:07):
fifty thousand, right, if Ihave five million dollars, you better believe
I'm going to be asking questions onhow was my five million dollars protected?
And FDIC insurance should be explaining,say, depending on you know, the
way it's set up and what thecoverage is, but doesn't matter. They
said, Okay, we're going togo in, we're going to create this
(43:28):
new new department, and we're goingto backstop. And so all depositors,
whether you had way above the FDIClimits, you're going to get your money
back. And so what does thattell to other corporations out there or banks
that I want to try it?They want to try these risky things to
say, hey maybe we can makesome big profits. Yeah, go ahead
and default. We'll we'll just becausegovernment's going to ever make we'll just strap
(43:51):
it to taxpayers. But there aresolutions. There are solutions for keeping up
with inflation and being ahead of thecurve for all of these mistakes being made
by our government, and you needto call nine one six nine sixty seven
thirty five hundred so we can showyou how we do exactly that help you
with solutions to combat these things.So hope you enjoyed listening to the wise
(44:15):
money guys, John Scambray and toSepievskani. Have a wonderful rest of your
weekend, and come back and giveus a listen next week. By all,
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