April 10, 2025 • 42 mins
The big news of Tariffs this week surely effects your money. So what are you going to do about it? Hosts John and Giueseppe walk us through the latest updates, China's tariff play, and eyes on our neighbors to the north and south. Plus, impouding volatility and the use of historical data when financial planning. The Wise Money Guys!!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website one Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wisemney Guys Radio Show. I'm
your co host, John Scambray, and I'm here with my
partner just up Wisconsin and it's a beautiful day in
the neighborhood. But before we get started, let's talk about
where you can find information about us. Go to Wysmoneyguys
dot com and from there you can scroll down to
the end of the page and look at important information. Also,
(00:35):
you can always email us at question at Wismoneyguys dot
com or give us a call nine ninety six seven
thirty five hundred. Oil Boy, here we go. I mean,
wasn't it just last week? It was all pretty much
doom and gloom, and we literally went through four scenarios
(00:58):
of what could potentially happen. All of those we thought
were dependent on tariff negotiations. But the light at the
end of the tunnel that we saw and predicted was
that any sort of good news on the tariff front
and the markets would take back off. Sure enough, there
was good news on Wednesday, and the markets took off.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Yea in the ninety days delay on all the elevated
tariffs and holding the ten percent tariffs across the board,
which was one of the scenarios that came up as
far as would would we still go into recession because
you know, there's all these recession fears, or would we
avert recession? And funny enough, Goldman Sachs had let it
(01:44):
out to their clients saying, you know, worry of recession,
and then after that news came out on Wednesday, they
came out and said, yeah, no, no, no longer worry
about recession.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Well, and the yield curve isn't inverted, and that hadn't
that didn't pan out to be a predictor of recession
like it normally is.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Right, So we will have a little time for that though.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
But we went through all of twenty two with the
inverted yield curve and no recession came. I think recession,
and I've said this many, many times in many formats,
that recession is dependent on unemployment, and unemployment we see
continues to remain low. Somewhere in the neighborhood of four
(02:25):
to one, four to two. It's not at a record
all time low. But it doesn't matter. When we go
through the data that we go over in our seminar
that we do every other month or so, we show
that recessions. Prior to recessions, unemployment was above five percent.
And so until we see unemployment rise above five percent,
(02:49):
I don't believe there will be a recession, and I
continue to believe that it will be by the dips.
And it's so important. One of the mistakes we talked
about actually last week, and we talk about again and
again and again is panicking and not to panic. And
most people who are going it alone will tend to
(03:11):
panic right they get out at the wrong time and
they get in at the wrong time. The simple fact
of the matter is to be successful managing your own portfolio,
or if you have a firm that's managing it incorrectly,
is you don't. You do not have to time the
perfect top to get out and the perfect bottom to
get in. You just have to be confident and emotionally stable,
(03:35):
you know, to make the right decision for you know,
longer than a minute. And I think that's what people
base their their decisions on. Emotions and emotional decision is Gee,
you know, how am I going to make you know,
a ton of money in like a week, a month,
one year.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
So when you're king, that's what we've been conditioned with. Yeah,
after two thousand and eight, we've had we've been spoiled
with easy money, lower interest rates. Right, it was all
about by the dip. We had some hiccups here and
there in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, some black swan events.
Twenty eighteen it was a twenty percent dropping the S
(04:17):
and P five hundred in the fourth quarter, but it's
been pretty much by the dip. And then we had
twenty twenty, but that was short lived. We had all
the stimulus out there, and it was all about by
the dip, and any little hiccups or pullbacks, people were spoiled.
It's hey, let me buy Nvidia, it's gonna go up
another one hundred percent. Let me buy Tesla, it's gonna
(04:38):
go up this, let me buy whatever, right, and people
got People got on that train, and I think they
got too used to that, the easy street. And now
there's a dose of reality. Right. But I think this reality,
as we talked about before in our episode in our
last show last week, is that this is imposed upon Okay,
(04:58):
it's not something that cracked or broke within the financial system,
and now we're trying to chase after it to try
and fix something within the economy. This is imposed upon
the economy. This is slowing things down. Now. If it
continues to drag on for too long, as we said
in the scenarios, that it could cause a recession. Right,
we're seeing the disruption in the bond market. We're and
(05:23):
you know, we'll kind of see and that's something to
pay attention to. We've talked a lot about the tenure
treasury yield, you know that goes that goes to five percent,
That can cause more problems in the market, obviously.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
Certainly with the real underlying effort of trying to get
interest rates down, which is to recapitalize the nation's debt
and bring that trillion dollar a year interest payment substantially down.
And I think that's what's truly behind the effort here.
Is that great if you do get a recession. The benefit,
(05:55):
in an oxymoron sort of way, the benefit of a
recession is there's greater justification for a lower interest rate environment.
And if we have a lower interest rate environment to
restimulate the economy. Guess what you can refinance thirty seven
trillion dollars in debt at a lower interest rate, saving
(06:18):
you know, the country, saving America tens of billions, if
not hundreds of billions of dollars a year in interest.
So that's the underpinnings. What's going on, in my opinion, the.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
US government that could get a bill in the mail,
this is your bill? Is this due date? You know,
April threieth or May.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
First, they actually do. That's what the trade.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
They have to put it on. They have to they
have to put it on landscape. They can do portrait.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
No, so yeah, it's a it's a twenty digit number. Yeah,
but yeah, quite frankly, that is what I believe the
underpinnings are. But you know, the real success of this
has been if we go back and this was you know,
(07:03):
so it's so funny that we go back twenty thirty years.
It was the Democratic Party saying, oh god, we've got
to do something about China and the world teriffing us,
especially China, and we've got to bring our manufacturing back.
And now you know, we're in the upside down universe
(07:26):
where that's completely flipped where and this might just be
Trump derangement syndrome, but now obviously it's the Republicans that
are fighting, you know, this tariff war, trying to get manufacturing,
and especially critical and essential manufacturing like pharmaceuticals and earth
(07:48):
minerals out of the hand of the Chinese. And in fact,
that was one of the Chinese aren't easying or negotiating
like seventy five other countries are. They've drawn a line
in the and this is exactly what we want people.
We want China to make it so unaffordable to produce
(08:08):
things there or buy things from there that a lot
of that supply chain, a lot of that manufacturing moves
to India, Vietnam, South Korea, Europe.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
As long as we don't make these same mistakes, that's
that's that should be the big learning lesson here is
that you know it really China started, really the transformation
started in the seventies. Yeah, and that has a lot
to do with us and then moving our manufacturing there
because it was cheap labor and cheap land. But if
it moves to another land, India, Vietnam, wherever, right, then
(08:45):
there's got to be some guidelines and guardrails there so
IP intellectual property isn't stolen and they really run away
with it.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
But I don't worry about the intellectual property and the
tech front. I worry more about I agree with you
one hundred percent, But what I think is more critical
is moved. So to your point, moving things back to
our country again, energy, earth, minerals, pharmaceutical, Right, who I
(09:16):
get it. They're going to try to continue to steal,
you know, whether it's you know, some sort of new
quantum computing software, you know, whatever it is, they're going
to try to steal that.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
And also the reality is we're not going to bring
manufacturing of like people to make you know, quarters pullovers
or some socks or whatever. Right, that's going to go
to another country where labor is cheaper, because it just
doesn't make.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Sense exactly right, So how do you play this? That's
really what it comes down to. And the simple fact
of the matter is that's a big part of what
we share if you come in to sit down with
us for a no obligation consultation or more importantly, we're
only a couple of weeks or so out from our
(10:02):
Roseville April thirtieth seminar for retirees or people about to retire,
and that's from six to seven thirty pm at the
Old Spaghetti Factory on Sunrise. It's a Wednesday. And if
you'd like to register for that, and I suggest you
do because we start turning people away about you know,
(10:24):
a week before, three days before or so, because we
get literally way too many sign ups. So so I
highly suggest if you're you know, if you're panicking, if
this is an emotional train wreck for you, what's going on,
and you really don't know what to do and how
(10:44):
to diversify your money towards success, then I highly suggest
you take us up on coming to see us or
coming to the workshop. Give us a call at nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Okay, you're
listening to the Wise money guys. I think we should
talk about and and and you know, we don't mind
(11:07):
giving out and and helping as many people as possible.
That's why we do these shows, that's why we put
it on YouTube. Hopefully you know you're you're you're listening
taking some of this. We've talked a lot about how
to properly diversify and really what categories of investments and
(11:27):
what waitings of investments we're doing, and how that really helps,
you know, reduce your your exposure to, you know, to
certain types of risks, whether it's interest rate risk, stock
market risk, so on and so forth. But but also
where you can just find you know, great cash flowing investments.
(11:50):
We've spent a lot of time and so since it
is so volatile and crazy, I thought we could just
regurgitate that a little bit here.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
Well, I think because it's so crucial before we regurgitate that,
I think another point is, you know, we when we
meet with new potential clients some of the some of
the times the meeting is just, hey, this is what
I have outside, this is what's been going on, and
I need a second set of eyes. And we have
no problem putting things together and start to formalize a
(12:21):
draft of a financial plan, just to make sure that
you're still on track. And that's a lot of times
what pops up in people's minds during these volatile times,
during all this uncertainty out there of are these tariff
and trade war going to continue on? Is it going
to drag down the economy? Are we going to go
into recession, are we not? You know, do I need
(12:42):
to worry? Is it going to derail you know, all
of my financial goals that I originally had out there?
Is this putting me off track? Or am I? Or
am I okay? And setting up that one on one
no obligation, consultation or coming to our workshop. You know,
that's something that we do. We don't charge for that
because it puts us on the same page as you,
because we learn more about your overall yeah, your overall
(13:07):
whole balance sheet, where you're at, where you want to go.
And it gives not only us, but it gives you
as well, both sides, the perspective of where you're at
and where you need to go. And if there are
some red flags, if there are some voids or things
that are concerning, then we can address those and then
we can better. You know, prescribe how you need to diversify,
(13:30):
how much risk your assets need to take. You know,
do you need twenty percent stocks, forty percent stocks or more?
How much bonds? How much yield do you need? What
kind of cash flow does your portfolio need to generate
versus whatever other sources of income funds that you're getting
from retirement.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Yep. You know you mentioned diversification and asset classes or
asset allocation, and that's first and foremost the number one
mistake we keep mentioning and we continue to see is
people aren't diversified and they don't really have.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
A plan over diversified.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Right, or they don't have a plan on how to rebalance.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
I just talked to one of our clients who has
a four to one K and he's got fifteen different funds. Yeah,
that's selected woman is four to one ken, I said,
you might be over diversified.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Yeah, so that on top of that, we we have
people who are retired and they have all the money
that they're ever going to generate from an earned income perspective,
not from a passive income, but from an earned income perspective.
And like one of the recent clients we just got,
and this is a seven figure client, and he had
(14:43):
ninety four percent here he's retired, ninety four percent of
his money in stocks. And when you start breaking it down,
why do you have ninety four percent of your money
in stocks? Well, you know I had him for a
long period of time, was his answer, and then I
just never did anything with them. Once I retired.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
And part of that too, is because they just went
up all of twenty twenty three, all of twenty twenty four. Right,
it's you know, if if it's not and you use
this term plenty of times before you know what I'm
going to say? Yeah, yeah, what am I gonna say? Bro,
don't fix it.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
But the reality is is people have a short memory too, Right.
They don't remember twenty twenty two, They don't remember the
volatility of twenty twenty. They don't remember the volatility in
twenty eighteen, in two thousand and eight, nine and ten,
in two thousand and one, two and three, and so
on and so forth. They forget all those timeframes. But
their make or break because if you retire or start
(15:39):
relying on your assets for going from earned income to
passive income, then the the proper asset allocation being truly diversified.
We've talked about what standard deviation and correlation you know mean,
and how important they are important during these crucial and
(16:01):
so that's just again some of the mistakes that we
see and and sadly it's some of the mistakes that
we see, you know, in people's portfolios that are managed
by some you know, pretty respectable you know firms, and
and it's just that typically the the the team members,
(16:24):
the type of people or individuals don't have the battle
tested experience that we have. They don't have the know how,
they don't they're not truly students of the game.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
You know, so many choices out there, and sometimes it's
just you don't know what you don't know.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Right, But think about that, whatever your career is, and
this is always a favorite of mine, whatever your career is,
say you're an IT person or you're an engineer, you're
a doctor or a dentist, an attorney, whatever, even an
accountant's it never ceases. We have like five accountants, and
it never ceases to amaze meet that accountants know nothing
(17:00):
about investments. There are some where they've they've kind of
created a dual offering, if you will, of investments and accounting,
but for the most part, your your your vanilla, you know,
bookkeeping type of an accountant. They are clueless when it
comes to managing money. So here you are, whatever your
(17:22):
profession is, and then when you retire, all of a sudden,
you think that on a very limited way, less than
part time basis, you're going to be successful at managing
your money for what reason to avoid a one percent
annual fee. I mean we've been.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
But I think part of that, like I said, goes
to when you've been spoiled for so long, Yeah, like
we have, or there's been a FED put or something,
you know, where the government steps in when there is
little issues and they come in and save the day,
you know nothing else.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Yeah, you know, very true.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
If you hadn't been through two thousand and eight, or
you started investing after the fact, what do you what's
I mean, what events really happened in that period of
time that was detrimental?
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Yeah, you know, I've got to mention the people we
literally saved and absolutely just crushed it for them on
their four one ks. You mentioned four one ks, So
in fact, three of our most recent clients, two that
are already on the books and one that's going through
(18:32):
the process now of retiring and moving over their retirement money.
But prior to that, when they met for a consultation
and we looked at their portfolios of funds inside of
their four one ks, and remember what our advice was,
if it ain't broke, no, no, no, we turned around
(18:54):
and said you absolutely and this was going back to
like November. The first one was in November, the second
one was around February. The third one was just recently,
where you know, they have high six figures or seven
figures in their four one K plans and they were
riding up to their retirement with almost eighty ninety percent
(19:19):
stock portfolios stock fund portfolios, and we said, you absolutely
need to go to you know, money market, stable value treasury,
just do risk, and and all of them on our advice.
In fact, most of them logged in for us, and
then we actually helped them, you know, d risk their
(19:42):
four o one K plan. And God almighty, how blessed
and fortunate that these people had the wherewithal to call
us come in, you know, knowing they were about to retire.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
It was a good timing.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
The timing was spectac But again, think about that. You
wouldn't know to do that had you not been in
the industry as long as we have. Because here's the
people with millions of dollars.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
And it's not about timing, like you said before, the
topper or bottom, because you know, the clients that came
to us in November that wasn't the absolute top. February
nineteen was absolute top. But holy cow, yeah, I mean
how they're feeling right now.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
You know, we couldn't have done anything better than just
and there was no benefit to that to us. We
knew that they might become a client exactly, and these
are the types of things we do, you know, with
no pressure.
Speaker 3 (20:37):
You know.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
It turns out that those people all hired us to
be their portfolio managers and their their planners and investment advisors.
But they didn't have to, and we were glad to help.
So if you'd like to come in for a no
obligation consultation where we'll review what you're doing, especially if
you've just retired, you're about to retire, or you've been
(21:00):
in retirement a while, please give us a call at
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred, or
sign up for our workshop on April thirty, which is
a Wednesday at the old Spaghetti Factory from six to
seven thirty PM called nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. And we've got to talk about one
(21:21):
of the economists and strategists we absolutely love and anybody
can plug into this person's information. Now he's not going
to give you investment advice. He's not gonna, you know,
tell you what to buy and do this or or
or do the things that we do. But we really
enjoy this person's commentary. He's been, I got to say,
(21:42):
spot on on a lot of things as far as
predictions outcome of specific events, you know, especially uh, he's
an extremely intelligent, you know, a person when it comes
to just understanding what all the data actually means. The
way he breaks down, you know, whether it's inflation data,
(22:06):
interest rates, unemployment, you know, any sort of market movements,
things that are geopolitical, things that are you know, impactful
of investments and the economy and making the money. He's, yeah,
the big He really makes it easy for anybody to
(22:28):
kind of get what's going on.
Speaker 3 (22:30):
And actually recently in a Bloomberg ratings, him and Bob
Stein were ranked like number.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Two, but the two of them, especially Westberry, I mean,
and that's that's part of what we do as full
time more than full time students of this industry. We're
trying to digest you know, as much information, research, analysis,
you know, strategy, constantly striving to learn learn things about
(23:01):
the different investments, the new creations of investments. I mean,
we've been doing a lot of these structured notes which evolved.
I mean there was versions of it quite frankly, you know,
but now they're way better. They've involved well.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
The environment makes it way better as far as the terms, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
And so I mean, if you're not putting in, you know,
sixty seventy hours a week into being a student of investing,
you shouldn't be managing your own money, and you certainly
shouldn't be with somebody who isn't, you know, a student
of this to the level and battle tested degree that
(23:44):
we are. And when I say every test right, you
never know everything is and that might be true of
just about everything. But talk a little bit about Westbury's commentary.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
In a nutshell well, and I'll bring up one of
the questions because it was a Q and A at
the end, and it's a lot that's on a lot
of people's minds as well. But overall, the tariff situation,
you know where where we came from kind of where
things are now, and you know, going back to two
(24:20):
thousand and eight, really everything has been built on the
Kinsian you know, economic theory, which is all you know,
driving demand and then you drive enough demand and you
know the economy will thrive, and you know q E
and stimulus and so on and so forth is part
of that. And like I said earlier, we've had it
(24:44):
really easy, right, We've had virtually no interest rates, you know,
a very little cheap money for like nine years after
two thousand and eight. Anytime something happened, there was a
fed put meaning you know, a fed put or they've
called it. Exactly, Daddy comes with his wallet. You made
a mistake and you blew your money, and then you
(25:06):
ran out of money. And now that's why we were
thirty seven trillion in debt exactly. And so that's that's
got to stop because that can't continue on because that's
not healthy. Right, And we saw that in twenty twenty
was it twenty two or twenty twenty twenty three, we
had like a little bit of a banking crisis. So
they had on a valley.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
Bank, they had like a window that banks could go
to and go, we'd like to borrow a billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Exactly, and they would lend it to interest rate. Yeah,
they would lend.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
It to them at an interest rate that's lower than
the interest rate they were being paid exactly. So it
was just a it was a money boon doggle.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
For banks exactly. Yeah, so money making boon doggle. Right,
and I'm kind of getting away with with you know,
the call on Westbury. But a lot of it had
to revolve around tariffs. Where do you think things are
gonna go? I think the worry of the slowdown of
the economy came even before the whole tariff and trade
(26:02):
war situation came up. And a lot of it was
because of all of that stimulus, all of that you know,
government deficit spending was just not healthy and am to money.
The supply of money just rapidly fired up, and now
it's kind of come back down to earth. Eventually things
(26:23):
slow down, right, And we talked about in previous episodes.
You know, there was a lot of touting of low
unemployment and you know the you know, the the economy
is resilient, the numbers are great. Well, part of the
contributing factor to that was the government deficit spending all
of the federal employment, you know, hiring that which.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Is also what triggers inflation, right, because it devalues the dollar.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Well, and you got too many you got too much
dollars changing too few goods. Guess what, you're paying more
dollars for those few goods that are out there, which
is the inflation we've been dealing with. So in a nutshell,
so he thinks that this whole scenario is going to
be geared more towards China, which actually kind of called
it because that was before Trump came out with the
(27:10):
ninety day delay.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Yeah, I think China maybe thought that, oh, Trump would
back down, but who knows. But you know, again, I
think one of the ultimate goals was to get very
close to a recession to so that we could get
to a reduction in interest rates, you know, true interest rates,
so our government could refinance its debt. And then also,
(27:34):
you know, in essence, to move manufacturing or dependence on
Chinese manufacturing home and elsewhere. I mean, I think that's
the end game. It wasn't about Canada, Mexico, the EU,
South America, Central America, you know, Latin whatever.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Literally, I think part of it is leveling the playing field. Yeah.
The other part of the two is all of what
you're saying. And you know, Westburry talked about that as well,
and and slowing things down.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
But so Westbury agrees with me that not exactly, not
at all, So then you agree with me.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
But but really they slowed, but we can't I think
the big thing is we can't focus on the tariffs
and the trade war being the culprit of the economy
slowing down. This was already in play prior to the tariffs,
in the whole trade war situation. The interesting thing and
(28:31):
the questions that came up was well, what do you
think about China and all of the treasuries that they
own and what if they unload them? Right? We saw
spots they which they are doing right, and there's rumors
I don't know if it's been very fight or not.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
They actually dumped a lot of at least according to
the different news sources that I read and and watch,
China dumped you know, billions of dollars of treasuries on
the market. So that was why that, which is why
the treasure respect yield spiked up.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
Yeah, and and so that was a concern. And what
if they what if they just you know, onload, Well
you got to think of it in this manner is yeah, right,
and you you put it out there news and then
that looks bad, Oh my gosh. And they can totally
control our economy. Well, they are investors in the US.
You got to look at it that way. And they
own treasuries. How much do they How much are the
(29:22):
value of those treasuries right? Because they bought them at
some certain price level at some point in time, and
now what are they worth now? Because interest rates are
high and the prices are down. So are they selling
them at a lot?
Speaker 2 (29:32):
And there their basic economic situation isn't one that's great.
I mean the real estate, you know, is basically worthless
because what what what country would you know invest heavily
in in building? Well, they over China that China would
just say, oh, you know, that's ours.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
They over built. They literally built cities right out out
of nowhere and lost a ton of money on it.
And that was one of Westbury's points, is hard to
trust the data that's coming out of China. But he
thinks they're probably already in a recession. And here's here's
the key thing. And there could be arguments and guess like, no,
I think China's is not in recession. Well, they have
(30:11):
been doing rounds of stimulus. You don't do rounds of
stimulus if your if your economy is operating in a
healthy manner. So if they're already doing rounds of stimulus,
he thinks this is actually great timing that they're doing
the the tariff that Trump is doing the tariffs and
trade war with China because they're already in a time
of need.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
The other thing is, yes, okay, what if they face
like they've been sucking us in the face.
Speaker 3 (30:33):
What if they unload all their treasuries it hurts them, Well,
that could have an impact on us. But he thinks
it's going to be temporaries and things. It's going to
be permanent. Right, they have to trade those treasuries for
US dollars. Now, they may decide to take those US
dollars and trading for some other currency, but then eventually
those dollars come back to us.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Yeah, but the yuon is at its lowest level against
the dollar that it's been in decades, And so think
about it. It's a it's a multi it's a combo punch.
Like you said, I mean, the real estate is in
the toilet in China. Then they have to unload hundreds
of billions of dollars in treasuries at massive losses, but
(31:13):
getting redeemed in dollars, which they can't stand. And then
on top of that, now you have this tariff front
where companies are going countries rather are going, yeah, we'll
pull our critical you know, uh a central manufacturing out
of China. And and so I love it.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
But here's the other thing. If they unload all their
treasuries right to hurt us, they now just got rid
of a bargaining chip. So if they're if you're in
your trade war, you want you want bargains.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
Right, they did exactly what we wanted them to do
is put a hard barrier to get to help, you know,
move these things back to the US or to other
you know, greater allies, true friends, true you know, non
(32:08):
adversarial countries. And really it's more than adversarial with China.
China is our enemy, right if we were in a conflict,
it's not going to be China, you know, with the US.
It's going to be China against the US. So there
are enemy. And I love when people go, oh they
are not, Yeah they are.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
They are.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
Everything they've done, you know, over the decades, is to
build you know, capability to steal murder. In fact, you
know what I heard, Yeah, one of the absolute sick
disgusting things that I heard on TV today and they
put up the numbers. It was on Fox Business. Was
(32:48):
the amount of deaths in the US from China supplied
fentanyl to the cartels and then into America, killing our
young adults and kids is more than all the wars combined,
the US wars, yep, more than World War Two, more
(33:10):
than the Vietnam War.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
And well, how do they actually track that the fentanyl
is Chinese via through cartel.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Well, because they know Chinese manufactures it, they manufacture it
and then apply it else.
Speaker 3 (33:25):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Well, I'm sure it is. But the big supplier of
it to the cartels.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
From Canadian borders as well. I mean, that's part of that.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Still being supplied, you know, from China to Canada and
then coming across the border. And that's what's interesting this
new Prime minister, instead of you know, working with US
supposedly they're not an adversary or or they're an ally,
was over meeting with Jijing Ping and how to take
(33:53):
on you know, the the United States. So Canada, I mean,
dare I be the first to say regarding as fat,
I think we absolutely should take over Canada Greenland. Of course,
the Panama Canal, so on and so forth. But you know,
some people are all the way there.
Speaker 3 (34:09):
But that a bunch of different issues.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, but at the end of the day, China and
and and and Mexico and Canada are responsible for millions
and millions of lives, lots.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
More so the cartel, right, because that's their line of business,
right right, And then and they and it's it's well
known they you know, traffic and not just fentanyl, cocaine
and weed. I mean, for you go back Carolina decade
all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Yeah, right, Well, if fentanyl makes cocaine look like it's good,
well the other thing.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
The other thing is is the very corruption within our
own government entities and organizations. Because there's been things, I mean,
I've I watched a lot of documentaries of how dirty
some of our d agents were and and bringing off yeah,
and and and supporting some of that and and having
that funnel end. So it's not only just overseas, but
it's also you know, quote quote draining the swamp and
(35:01):
finding the corruption within our own internal system as well.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
But the reason why we bring this up isn't you know,
because we're a political show, is because this affects your money,
And the reality is that we've needed to take on
this battle for a long time. One to save lives
and two to make America, you know, the greatest country
in the world, or stay the greatest country in the
(35:24):
world and make our citizens the most prosperous in the world.
So that's what the end game here is, and the
end game for us is all right, given all these
things we discuss weekend and week out, how do we
help you make money, how do we help you protect
your money? And how do we help you grow your money?
Those are our three things that we task ourselves as
(35:48):
our primary responsibility, and we put them in this order.
First and foremost, we want your investments to create cash flow.
We want them to pay you, you know, for being
in investor of whatever that investment is. Second, you know,
we want it to be you know, something that truly
is diversified, low correlated investments, low standard deviation, so on
(36:13):
and so forth, to help protect you know, what you've
built up. And then the third goal is are we
finding value in investments where we're putting you in these
things where we believe there's upside to the price, And
the answer is yes, that's what we work on every
day for the clients that we manage, and we're considered
(36:36):
a large firm by the SEC and our fee is
extremely reasonable. In fact, often I go why do we
why do we only charge what we charge?
Speaker 3 (36:47):
Well in the way we charge it too, which is
which is in arrears. So it's not something that's an
advance upfront payment. And we've done that for quite some
time now because we earn we earn our keep right
and we're confident our work to build that out and
build out the relationship, the portfolio of the financial plan,
that's going to be worthwhile and it's gonna you know,
maintain a long term relationship. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
So if you're somebody who's you know, been fee adverse
and worried about, you know, oh, being overcharged and not
getting the value for it, let me explain that a
little bit further. So, charging in arrears means that we
will not be charging another fee for our clients, and
one fourth of that fee of the annual fee until July,
(37:34):
and then our next fee is in October. So even
though there is basically a little less than eight months
left in the year, if you were hiring us right
now to help you with your money, you would pay
a reduced fee in July because it's not a full quarter,
and then the only full quarter's worth of a fee
(37:57):
would be in October, and then nothing until January. So basically,
and this is why I say what I say, why
do we do this? You're you're basically getting eight months
worth of work for about you know, one and a
little more than a half quarters, yes, less than two
quarters fees, but three quarters of the year worth of work.
(38:20):
So that's unbelievable. If you want to learn more about,
you know, what we do and how we help our clients,
you know, really take advantage of the opportunities that present
themselves every day, but more importantly, how we show people
how to properly you know, rebalance their assets, diversify you
(38:42):
some of the other philosophical, long term things that we've
honed in our skills at call us at nine one
six nine six seven thirty five hundred and you can
do that for a new obligation consultation and or you
could do that to sign up for our retire workshop.
So if you're about to retire, you just retired, or
(39:05):
you're currently retired, you know, come to that workshop. We
feed you a good dinner, and I can guarantee you
you'll enjoy it and it'll be a good use of
your time. In fact, we've never had anybody say, gosh,
I wish I didn't go to that, that was a
waste of my time. Ever, and we collect feedback, so
that's how we're confident we can say that so called
(39:27):
nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 3 (39:31):
So I think we're in a better spot with a
ninety day delay, I think a lot, you know, I
think that that's the focus of the work to be
done within that ninety days. And then the administration pushing
forward on the the you know, tax cuts and any
other further tax cuts what helped to bolster and support.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
So there was tax cuts getting and a budget getting
through Congress. It passed during the week two sixteen two
fourteen a very thin margin. But then that to go
off to the Senate and hopefully won't get pushed back
too much, and then make it to the President's desk
to sign that would be huge. And the reason why
(40:10):
we didn't see a rally from that is because it
still has to get through the rest of the process,
which is again past the Senate, get signed by the
president and hopefully, you know, it has everything that Trump
has promised, and if it does, that would be another
reason why the markets may shoot back up.
Speaker 3 (40:30):
Yeah. Here, well, inflation data came out this week and
it was softer and anticipating.
Speaker 2 (40:35):
You mean these tariffs aren't causing massive inflation.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
Like, yeah, well it's a little too soon, I mean.
And that's that's the same thing where you know, Trump's
been in office, it's only April. Yeah, and they're like, well,
he hasn't done this. He hasn't. He's only been in
for a few months, so you got to you got
to give us some time. But yeah, and that but
that is a good thing. That is supportive, especially if
it gets to the point where Federal Reserve does step
(41:01):
in and then you start cutting rates. We want to
see that inflation number software that anticipated.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
Yeah, because quite frankly, if the Fed cuts rates without
inflation data going down, then we could get into a
stagflation scenario and rates may actually go up because we
see every bag I don't care from highly seasoned uh
you know, economists, strategists, you know, analysts, money managers. Too
(41:28):
inexperienced ones knew that the Fed should not be cutting
interest rates, and the market you know, proved it by
interest rates actually going up when the Fed cut you
know what a point and a half when rates went
higher at one point. So, you know, with with with
the recession potentially looming, if we see an economic slow down,
(41:52):
then I think rate cuts by the Fed would actually
reduce the interest rate environment that we're in.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Otherwise are slow and continue to slow in the market
where it deems them to come in and cut, then yeah,
then yeah.
Speaker 2 (42:05):
So you've been listening to the wise money guys, John
Scambray and to Seppie Visconti. Again, we urge you to
come in for a no obligation consultation. It'll be a
great use of your time. Or register for our workshop
on Wednesday, April thirtieth, from six to seven thirty pm
in Roseville. Give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. Hope you enjoyed the show,
(42:29):
have a wonderful weekend.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
Talk to you next week.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website one Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wisemney Guys Radio Show. I'm
your co host, John Scambray, and I'm here with my
partner just up Wisconsin and it's a beautiful day in
the neighborhood. But before we get started, let's talk about
where you can find information about us. Go to Wysmoneyguys
dot com and from there you can scroll down to
the end of the page and look at important information. Also,
(00:35):
you can always email us at question at Wismoneyguys dot
com or give us a call nine ninety six seven
thirty five hundred. Oil Boy, here we go. I mean,
wasn't it just last week? It was all pretty much
doom and gloom, and we literally went through four scenarios
(00:58):
of what could potentially happen. All of those we thought
were dependent on tariff negotiations. But the light at the
end of the tunnel that we saw and predicted was
that any sort of good news on the tariff front
and the markets would take back off. Sure enough, there
was good news on Wednesday, and the markets took off.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Yea in the ninety days delay on all the elevated
tariffs and holding the ten percent tariffs across the board,
which was one of the scenarios that came up as
far as would would we still go into recession because
you know, there's all these recession fears, or would we
avert recession? And funny enough, Goldman Sachs had let it
(01:44):
out to their clients saying, you know, worry of recession,
and then after that news came out on Wednesday, they
came out and said, yeah, no, no, no longer worry
about recession.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Well, and the yield curve isn't inverted, and that hadn't
that didn't pan out to be a predictor of recession
like it normally is.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Right, So we will have a little time for that though.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
But we went through all of twenty two with the
inverted yield curve and no recession came. I think recession,
and I've said this many, many times in many formats,
that recession is dependent on unemployment, and unemployment we see
continues to remain low. Somewhere in the neighborhood of four
(02:25):
to one, four to two. It's not at a record
all time low. But it doesn't matter. When we go
through the data that we go over in our seminar
that we do every other month or so, we show
that recessions. Prior to recessions, unemployment was above five percent.
And so until we see unemployment rise above five percent,
(02:49):
I don't believe there will be a recession, and I
continue to believe that it will be by the dips.
And it's so important. One of the mistakes we talked
about actually last week, and we talk about again and
again and again is panicking and not to panic. And
most people who are going it alone will tend to
(03:11):
panic right they get out at the wrong time and
they get in at the wrong time. The simple fact
of the matter is to be successful managing your own portfolio,
or if you have a firm that's managing it incorrectly,
is you don't. You do not have to time the
perfect top to get out and the perfect bottom to
get in. You just have to be confident and emotionally stable,
(03:35):
you know, to make the right decision for you know,
longer than a minute. And I think that's what people
base their their decisions on. Emotions and emotional decision is Gee,
you know, how am I going to make you know,
a ton of money in like a week, a month,
one year.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
So when you're king, that's what we've been conditioned with. Yeah,
after two thousand and eight, we've had we've been spoiled
with easy money, lower interest rates. Right, it was all
about by the dip. We had some hiccups here and
there in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, some black swan events.
Twenty eighteen it was a twenty percent dropping the S
(04:17):
and P five hundred in the fourth quarter, but it's
been pretty much by the dip. And then we had
twenty twenty, but that was short lived. We had all
the stimulus out there, and it was all about by
the dip, and any little hiccups or pullbacks, people were spoiled.
It's hey, let me buy Nvidia, it's gonna go up
another one hundred percent. Let me buy Tesla, it's gonna
(04:38):
go up this, let me buy whatever, right, and people
got People got on that train, and I think they
got too used to that, the easy street. And now
there's a dose of reality. Right. But I think this reality,
as we talked about before in our episode in our
last show last week, is that this is imposed upon Okay,
(04:58):
it's not something that cracked or broke within the financial system,
and now we're trying to chase after it to try
and fix something within the economy. This is imposed upon
the economy. This is slowing things down. Now. If it
continues to drag on for too long, as we said
in the scenarios, that it could cause a recession. Right,
we're seeing the disruption in the bond market. We're and
(05:23):
you know, we'll kind of see and that's something to
pay attention to. We've talked a lot about the tenure
treasury yield, you know that goes that goes to five percent,
That can cause more problems in the market, obviously.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
Certainly with the real underlying effort of trying to get
interest rates down, which is to recapitalize the nation's debt
and bring that trillion dollar a year interest payment substantially down.
And I think that's what's truly behind the effort here.
Is that great if you do get a recession. The benefit,
(05:55):
in an oxymoron sort of way, the benefit of a
recession is there's greater justification for a lower interest rate environment.
And if we have a lower interest rate environment to
restimulate the economy. Guess what you can refinance thirty seven
trillion dollars in debt at a lower interest rate, saving
(06:18):
you know, the country, saving America tens of billions, if
not hundreds of billions of dollars a year in interest.
So that's the underpinnings. What's going on, in my opinion, the.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
US government that could get a bill in the mail,
this is your bill? Is this due date? You know,
April threieth or May.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
First, they actually do. That's what the trade.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
They have to put it on. They have to they
have to put it on landscape. They can do portrait.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
No, so yeah, it's a it's a twenty digit number. Yeah,
but yeah, quite frankly, that is what I believe the
underpinnings are. But you know, the real success of this
has been if we go back and this was you know,
(07:03):
so it's so funny that we go back twenty thirty years.
It was the Democratic Party saying, oh god, we've got
to do something about China and the world teriffing us,
especially China, and we've got to bring our manufacturing back.
And now you know, we're in the upside down universe
(07:26):
where that's completely flipped where and this might just be
Trump derangement syndrome, but now obviously it's the Republicans that
are fighting, you know, this tariff war, trying to get manufacturing,
and especially critical and essential manufacturing like pharmaceuticals and earth
(07:48):
minerals out of the hand of the Chinese. And in fact,
that was one of the Chinese aren't easying or negotiating
like seventy five other countries are. They've drawn a line
in the and this is exactly what we want people.
We want China to make it so unaffordable to produce
(08:08):
things there or buy things from there that a lot
of that supply chain, a lot of that manufacturing moves
to India, Vietnam, South Korea, Europe.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
As long as we don't make these same mistakes, that's
that's that should be the big learning lesson here is
that you know it really China started, really the transformation
started in the seventies. Yeah, and that has a lot
to do with us and then moving our manufacturing there
because it was cheap labor and cheap land. But if
it moves to another land, India, Vietnam, wherever, right, then
(08:45):
there's got to be some guidelines and guardrails there so
IP intellectual property isn't stolen and they really run away
with it.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
But I don't worry about the intellectual property and the
tech front. I worry more about I agree with you
one hundred percent, But what I think is more critical
is moved. So to your point, moving things back to
our country again, energy, earth, minerals, pharmaceutical, Right, who I
(09:16):
get it. They're going to try to continue to steal,
you know, whether it's you know, some sort of new
quantum computing software, you know, whatever it is, they're going
to try to steal that.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
And also the reality is we're not going to bring
manufacturing of like people to make you know, quarters pullovers
or some socks or whatever. Right, that's going to go
to another country where labor is cheaper, because it just
doesn't make.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
Sense exactly right, So how do you play this? That's
really what it comes down to. And the simple fact
of the matter is that's a big part of what
we share if you come in to sit down with
us for a no obligation consultation or more importantly, we're
only a couple of weeks or so out from our
(10:02):
Roseville April thirtieth seminar for retirees or people about to retire,
and that's from six to seven thirty pm at the
Old Spaghetti Factory on Sunrise. It's a Wednesday. And if
you'd like to register for that, and I suggest you
do because we start turning people away about you know,
(10:24):
a week before, three days before or so, because we
get literally way too many sign ups. So so I
highly suggest if you're you know, if you're panicking, if
this is an emotional train wreck for you, what's going on,
and you really don't know what to do and how
(10:44):
to diversify your money towards success, then I highly suggest
you take us up on coming to see us or
coming to the workshop. Give us a call at nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Okay, you're
listening to the Wise money guys. I think we should
talk about and and and you know, we don't mind
(11:07):
giving out and and helping as many people as possible.
That's why we do these shows, that's why we put
it on YouTube. Hopefully you know you're you're you're listening
taking some of this. We've talked a lot about how
to properly diversify and really what categories of investments and
(11:27):
what waitings of investments we're doing, and how that really helps,
you know, reduce your your exposure to, you know, to
certain types of risks, whether it's interest rate risk, stock
market risk, so on and so forth. But but also
where you can just find you know, great cash flowing investments.
(11:50):
We've spent a lot of time and so since it
is so volatile and crazy, I thought we could just
regurgitate that a little bit here.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
Well, I think because it's so crucial before we regurgitate that,
I think another point is, you know, we when we
meet with new potential clients some of the some of
the times the meeting is just, hey, this is what
I have outside, this is what's been going on, and
I need a second set of eyes. And we have
no problem putting things together and start to formalize a
(12:21):
draft of a financial plan, just to make sure that
you're still on track. And that's a lot of times
what pops up in people's minds during these volatile times,
during all this uncertainty out there of are these tariff
and trade war going to continue on? Is it going
to drag down the economy? Are we going to go
into recession, are we not? You know, do I need
(12:42):
to worry? Is it going to derail you know, all
of my financial goals that I originally had out there?
Is this putting me off track? Or am I? Or
am I okay? And setting up that one on one
no obligation, consultation or coming to our workshop. You know,
that's something that we do. We don't charge for that
because it puts us on the same page as you,
because we learn more about your overall yeah, your overall
(13:07):
whole balance sheet, where you're at, where you want to go.
And it gives not only us, but it gives you
as well, both sides, the perspective of where you're at
and where you need to go. And if there are
some red flags, if there are some voids or things
that are concerning, then we can address those and then
we can better. You know, prescribe how you need to diversify,
(13:30):
how much risk your assets need to take. You know,
do you need twenty percent stocks, forty percent stocks or more?
How much bonds? How much yield do you need? What
kind of cash flow does your portfolio need to generate
versus whatever other sources of income funds that you're getting
from retirement.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Yep. You know you mentioned diversification and asset classes or
asset allocation, and that's first and foremost the number one
mistake we keep mentioning and we continue to see is
people aren't diversified and they don't really have.
Speaker 3 (14:06):
A plan over diversified.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Right, or they don't have a plan on how to rebalance.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
I just talked to one of our clients who has
a four to one K and he's got fifteen different funds. Yeah,
that's selected woman is four to one ken, I said,
you might be over diversified.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Yeah, so that on top of that, we we have
people who are retired and they have all the money
that they're ever going to generate from an earned income perspective,
not from a passive income, but from an earned income perspective.
And like one of the recent clients we just got,
and this is a seven figure client, and he had
(14:43):
ninety four percent here he's retired, ninety four percent of
his money in stocks. And when you start breaking it down,
why do you have ninety four percent of your money
in stocks? Well, you know I had him for a
long period of time, was his answer, and then I
just never did anything with them. Once I retired.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
And part of that too, is because they just went
up all of twenty twenty three, all of twenty twenty four. Right,
it's you know, if if it's not and you use
this term plenty of times before you know what I'm
going to say? Yeah, yeah, what am I gonna say? Bro,
don't fix it.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
But the reality is is people have a short memory too, Right.
They don't remember twenty twenty two, They don't remember the
volatility of twenty twenty. They don't remember the volatility in
twenty eighteen, in two thousand and eight, nine and ten,
in two thousand and one, two and three, and so
on and so forth. They forget all those timeframes. But
their make or break because if you retire or start
(15:39):
relying on your assets for going from earned income to
passive income, then the the proper asset allocation being truly diversified.
We've talked about what standard deviation and correlation you know mean,
and how important they are important during these crucial and
(16:01):
so that's just again some of the mistakes that we
see and and sadly it's some of the mistakes that
we see, you know, in people's portfolios that are managed
by some you know, pretty respectable you know firms, and
and it's just that typically the the the team members,
(16:24):
the type of people or individuals don't have the battle
tested experience that we have. They don't have the know how,
they don't they're not truly students of the game.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
You know, so many choices out there, and sometimes it's
just you don't know what you don't know.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Right, But think about that, whatever your career is, and
this is always a favorite of mine, whatever your career is,
say you're an IT person or you're an engineer, you're
a doctor or a dentist, an attorney, whatever, even an
accountant's it never ceases. We have like five accountants, and
it never ceases to amaze meet that accountants know nothing
(17:00):
about investments. There are some where they've they've kind of
created a dual offering, if you will, of investments and accounting,
but for the most part, your your your vanilla, you know,
bookkeeping type of an accountant. They are clueless when it
comes to managing money. So here you are, whatever your
(17:22):
profession is, and then when you retire, all of a sudden,
you think that on a very limited way, less than
part time basis, you're going to be successful at managing
your money for what reason to avoid a one percent
annual fee. I mean we've been.
Speaker 3 (17:42):
But I think part of that, like I said, goes
to when you've been spoiled for so long, Yeah, like
we have, or there's been a FED put or something,
you know, where the government steps in when there is
little issues and they come in and save the day,
you know nothing else.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Yeah, you know, very true.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
If you hadn't been through two thousand and eight, or
you started investing after the fact, what do you what's
I mean, what events really happened in that period of
time that was detrimental?
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Yeah, you know, I've got to mention the people we
literally saved and absolutely just crushed it for them on
their four one ks. You mentioned four one ks, So
in fact, three of our most recent clients, two that
are already on the books and one that's going through
(18:32):
the process now of retiring and moving over their retirement money.
But prior to that, when they met for a consultation
and we looked at their portfolios of funds inside of
their four one ks, and remember what our advice was,
if it ain't broke, no, no, no, we turned around
(18:54):
and said you absolutely and this was going back to
like November. The first one was in November, the second
one was around February. The third one was just recently,
where you know, they have high six figures or seven
figures in their four one K plans and they were
riding up to their retirement with almost eighty ninety percent
(19:19):
stock portfolios stock fund portfolios, and we said, you absolutely
need to go to you know, money market, stable value treasury,
just do risk, and and all of them on our advice.
In fact, most of them logged in for us, and
then we actually helped them, you know, d risk their
(19:42):
four o one K plan. And God almighty, how blessed
and fortunate that these people had the wherewithal to call
us come in, you know, knowing they were about to retire.
Speaker 3 (19:56):
It was a good timing.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
The timing was spectac But again, think about that. You
wouldn't know to do that had you not been in
the industry as long as we have. Because here's the
people with millions of dollars.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
And it's not about timing, like you said before, the
topper or bottom, because you know, the clients that came
to us in November that wasn't the absolute top. February
nineteen was absolute top. But holy cow, yeah, I mean
how they're feeling right now.
Speaker 2 (20:22):
You know, we couldn't have done anything better than just
and there was no benefit to that to us. We
knew that they might become a client exactly, and these
are the types of things we do, you know, with
no pressure.
Speaker 3 (20:37):
You know.
Speaker 2 (20:38):
It turns out that those people all hired us to
be their portfolio managers and their their planners and investment advisors.
But they didn't have to, and we were glad to help.
So if you'd like to come in for a no
obligation consultation where we'll review what you're doing, especially if
you've just retired, you're about to retire, or you've been
(21:00):
in retirement a while, please give us a call at
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred, or
sign up for our workshop on April thirty, which is
a Wednesday at the old Spaghetti Factory from six to
seven thirty PM called nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. And we've got to talk about one
(21:21):
of the economists and strategists we absolutely love and anybody
can plug into this person's information. Now he's not going
to give you investment advice. He's not gonna, you know,
tell you what to buy and do this or or
or do the things that we do. But we really
enjoy this person's commentary. He's been, I got to say,
(21:42):
spot on on a lot of things as far as
predictions outcome of specific events, you know, especially uh, he's
an extremely intelligent, you know, a person when it comes
to just understanding what all the data actually means. The
way he breaks down, you know, whether it's inflation data,
(22:06):
interest rates, unemployment, you know, any sort of market movements,
things that are geopolitical, things that are you know, impactful
of investments and the economy and making the money. He's, yeah,
the big He really makes it easy for anybody to
(22:28):
kind of get what's going on.
Speaker 3 (22:30):
And actually recently in a Bloomberg ratings, him and Bob
Stein were ranked like number.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Two, but the two of them, especially Westberry, I mean,
and that's that's part of what we do as full
time more than full time students of this industry. We're
trying to digest you know, as much information, research, analysis,
you know, strategy, constantly striving to learn learn things about
(23:01):
the different investments, the new creations of investments. I mean,
we've been doing a lot of these structured notes which evolved.
I mean there was versions of it quite frankly, you know,
but now they're way better. They've involved well.
Speaker 3 (23:17):
The environment makes it way better as far as the terms, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
And so I mean, if you're not putting in, you know,
sixty seventy hours a week into being a student of investing,
you shouldn't be managing your own money, and you certainly
shouldn't be with somebody who isn't, you know, a student
of this to the level and battle tested degree that
(23:44):
we are. And when I say every test right, you
never know everything is and that might be true of
just about everything. But talk a little bit about Westbury's commentary.
Speaker 3 (23:59):
In a nutshell well, and I'll bring up one of
the questions because it was a Q and A at
the end, and it's a lot that's on a lot
of people's minds as well. But overall, the tariff situation,
you know where where we came from kind of where
things are now, and you know, going back to two
(24:20):
thousand and eight, really everything has been built on the
Kinsian you know, economic theory, which is all you know,
driving demand and then you drive enough demand and you
know the economy will thrive, and you know q E
and stimulus and so on and so forth is part
of that. And like I said earlier, we've had it
(24:44):
really easy, right, We've had virtually no interest rates, you know,
a very little cheap money for like nine years after
two thousand and eight. Anytime something happened, there was a
fed put meaning you know, a fed put or they've
called it. Exactly, Daddy comes with his wallet. You made
a mistake and you blew your money, and then you
(25:06):
ran out of money. And now that's why we were
thirty seven trillion in debt exactly. And so that's that's
got to stop because that can't continue on because that's
not healthy. Right, And we saw that in twenty twenty
was it twenty two or twenty twenty twenty three, we
had like a little bit of a banking crisis. So
they had on a valley.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
Bank, they had like a window that banks could go
to and go, we'd like to borrow a billion dollars.
Speaker 3 (25:29):
Exactly, and they would lend it to interest rate. Yeah,
they would lend.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
It to them at an interest rate that's lower than
the interest rate they were being paid exactly. So it
was just a it was a money boon doggle.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
For banks exactly. Yeah, so money making boon doggle. Right,
and I'm kind of getting away with with you know,
the call on Westbury. But a lot of it had
to revolve around tariffs. Where do you think things are
gonna go? I think the worry of the slowdown of
the economy came even before the whole tariff and trade
(26:02):
war situation came up. And a lot of it was
because of all of that stimulus, all of that you know,
government deficit spending was just not healthy and am to money.
The supply of money just rapidly fired up, and now
it's kind of come back down to earth. Eventually things
(26:23):
slow down, right, And we talked about in previous episodes.
You know, there was a lot of touting of low
unemployment and you know the you know, the the economy
is resilient, the numbers are great. Well, part of the
contributing factor to that was the government deficit spending all
of the federal employment, you know, hiring that which.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Is also what triggers inflation, right, because it devalues the dollar.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Well, and you got too many you got too much
dollars changing too few goods. Guess what, you're paying more
dollars for those few goods that are out there, which
is the inflation we've been dealing with. So in a nutshell,
so he thinks that this whole scenario is going to
be geared more towards China, which actually kind of called
it because that was before Trump came out with the
(27:10):
ninety day delay.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Yeah, I think China maybe thought that, oh, Trump would
back down, but who knows. But you know, again, I
think one of the ultimate goals was to get very
close to a recession to so that we could get
to a reduction in interest rates, you know, true interest rates,
so our government could refinance its debt. And then also,
(27:34):
you know, in essence, to move manufacturing or dependence on
Chinese manufacturing home and elsewhere. I mean, I think that's
the end game. It wasn't about Canada, Mexico, the EU,
South America, Central America, you know, Latin whatever.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Literally, I think part of it is leveling the playing field. Yeah.
The other part of the two is all of what
you're saying. And you know, Westburry talked about that as well,
and and slowing things down.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
But so Westbury agrees with me that not exactly, not
at all, So then you agree with me.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
But but really they slowed, but we can't I think
the big thing is we can't focus on the tariffs
and the trade war being the culprit of the economy
slowing down. This was already in play prior to the tariffs,
in the whole trade war situation. The interesting thing and
(28:31):
the questions that came up was well, what do you
think about China and all of the treasuries that they
own and what if they unload them? Right? We saw
spots they which they are doing right, and there's rumors
I don't know if it's been very fight or not.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
They actually dumped a lot of at least according to
the different news sources that I read and and watch,
China dumped you know, billions of dollars of treasuries on
the market. So that was why that, which is why
the treasure respect yield spiked up.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
Yeah, and and so that was a concern. And what
if they what if they just you know, onload, Well
you got to think of it in this manner is yeah, right,
and you you put it out there news and then
that looks bad, Oh my gosh. And they can totally
control our economy. Well, they are investors in the US.
You got to look at it that way. And they
own treasuries. How much do they How much are the
(29:22):
value of those treasuries right? Because they bought them at
some certain price level at some point in time, and
now what are they worth now? Because interest rates are
high and the prices are down. So are they selling
them at a lot?
Speaker 2 (29:32):
And there their basic economic situation isn't one that's great.
I mean the real estate, you know, is basically worthless
because what what what country would you know invest heavily
in in building? Well, they over China that China would
just say, oh, you know, that's ours.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
They over built. They literally built cities right out out
of nowhere and lost a ton of money on it.
And that was one of Westbury's points, is hard to
trust the data that's coming out of China. But he
thinks they're probably already in a recession. And here's here's
the key thing. And there could be arguments and guess like, no,
I think China's is not in recession. Well, they have
(30:11):
been doing rounds of stimulus. You don't do rounds of
stimulus if your if your economy is operating in a
healthy manner. So if they're already doing rounds of stimulus,
he thinks this is actually great timing that they're doing
the the tariff that Trump is doing the tariffs and
trade war with China because they're already in a time
of need.
Speaker 2 (30:29):
The other thing is, yes, okay, what if they face
like they've been sucking us in the face.
Speaker 3 (30:33):
What if they unload all their treasuries it hurts them, Well,
that could have an impact on us. But he thinks
it's going to be temporaries and things. It's going to
be permanent. Right, they have to trade those treasuries for
US dollars. Now, they may decide to take those US
dollars and trading for some other currency, but then eventually
those dollars come back to us.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
Yeah, but the yuon is at its lowest level against
the dollar that it's been in decades, And so think
about it. It's a it's a multi it's a combo punch.
Like you said, I mean, the real estate is in
the toilet in China. Then they have to unload hundreds
of billions of dollars in treasuries at massive losses, but
(31:13):
getting redeemed in dollars, which they can't stand. And then
on top of that, now you have this tariff front
where companies are going countries rather are going, yeah, we'll
pull our critical you know, uh a central manufacturing out
of China. And and so I love it.
Speaker 3 (31:36):
But here's the other thing. If they unload all their
treasuries right to hurt us, they now just got rid
of a bargaining chip. So if they're if you're in
your trade war, you want you want bargains.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
Right, they did exactly what we wanted them to do
is put a hard barrier to get to help, you know,
move these things back to the US or to other
you know, greater allies, true friends, true you know, non
(32:08):
adversarial countries. And really it's more than adversarial with China.
China is our enemy, right if we were in a conflict,
it's not going to be China, you know, with the US.
It's going to be China against the US. So there
are enemy. And I love when people go, oh they
are not, Yeah they are.
Speaker 3 (32:27):
They are.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
Everything they've done, you know, over the decades, is to
build you know, capability to steal murder. In fact, you
know what I heard, Yeah, one of the absolute sick
disgusting things that I heard on TV today and they
put up the numbers. It was on Fox Business. Was
(32:48):
the amount of deaths in the US from China supplied
fentanyl to the cartels and then into America, killing our
young adults and kids is more than all the wars combined,
the US wars, yep, more than World War Two, more
(33:10):
than the Vietnam War.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
And well, how do they actually track that the fentanyl
is Chinese via through cartel.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Well, because they know Chinese manufactures it, they manufacture it
and then apply it else.
Speaker 3 (33:25):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Well, I'm sure it is. But the big supplier of
it to the cartels.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
From Canadian borders as well. I mean, that's part of that.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
Still being supplied, you know, from China to Canada and
then coming across the border. And that's what's interesting this
new Prime minister, instead of you know, working with US
supposedly they're not an adversary or or they're an ally,
was over meeting with Jijing Ping and how to take
(33:53):
on you know, the the United States. So Canada, I mean,
dare I be the first to say regarding as fat,
I think we absolutely should take over Canada Greenland. Of course,
the Panama Canal, so on and so forth. But you know,
some people are all the way there.
Speaker 3 (34:09):
But that a bunch of different issues.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, but at the end of the day, China and
and and and Mexico and Canada are responsible for millions
and millions of lives, lots.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
More so the cartel, right, because that's their line of business,
right right, And then and they and it's it's well
known they you know, traffic and not just fentanyl, cocaine
and weed. I mean, for you go back Carolina decade
all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
Yeah, right, Well, if fentanyl makes cocaine look like it's good,
well the other thing.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
The other thing is is the very corruption within our
own government entities and organizations. Because there's been things, I mean,
I've I watched a lot of documentaries of how dirty
some of our d agents were and and bringing off yeah,
and and and supporting some of that and and having
that funnel end. So it's not only just overseas, but
it's also you know, quote quote draining the swamp and
(35:01):
finding the corruption within our own internal system as well.
Speaker 2 (35:03):
But the reason why we bring this up isn't you know,
because we're a political show, is because this affects your money,
And the reality is that we've needed to take on
this battle for a long time. One to save lives
and two to make America, you know, the greatest country
in the world, or stay the greatest country in the
(35:24):
world and make our citizens the most prosperous in the world.
So that's what the end game here is, and the
end game for us is all right, given all these
things we discuss weekend and week out, how do we
help you make money, how do we help you protect
your money? And how do we help you grow your money?
Those are our three things that we task ourselves as
(35:48):
our primary responsibility, and we put them in this order.
First and foremost, we want your investments to create cash flow.
We want them to pay you, you know, for being
in investor of whatever that investment is. Second, you know,
we want it to be you know, something that truly
is diversified, low correlated investments, low standard deviation, so on
(36:13):
and so forth, to help protect you know, what you've
built up. And then the third goal is are we
finding value in investments where we're putting you in these
things where we believe there's upside to the price, And
the answer is yes, that's what we work on every
day for the clients that we manage, and we're considered
(36:36):
a large firm by the SEC and our fee is
extremely reasonable. In fact, often I go why do we
why do we only charge what we charge?
Speaker 3 (36:47):
Well in the way we charge it too, which is
which is in arrears. So it's not something that's an
advance upfront payment. And we've done that for quite some
time now because we earn we earn our keep right
and we're confident our work to build that out and
build out the relationship, the portfolio of the financial plan,
that's going to be worthwhile and it's gonna you know,
maintain a long term relationship. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
So if you're somebody who's you know, been fee adverse
and worried about, you know, oh, being overcharged and not
getting the value for it, let me explain that a
little bit further. So, charging in arrears means that we
will not be charging another fee for our clients, and
one fourth of that fee of the annual fee until July,
(37:34):
and then our next fee is in October. So even
though there is basically a little less than eight months
left in the year, if you were hiring us right
now to help you with your money, you would pay
a reduced fee in July because it's not a full quarter,
and then the only full quarter's worth of a fee
(37:57):
would be in October, and then nothing until January. So basically,
and this is why I say what I say, why
do we do this? You're you're basically getting eight months
worth of work for about you know, one and a
little more than a half quarters, yes, less than two
quarters fees, but three quarters of the year worth of work.
(38:20):
So that's unbelievable. If you want to learn more about,
you know, what we do and how we help our clients,
you know, really take advantage of the opportunities that present
themselves every day, but more importantly, how we show people
how to properly you know, rebalance their assets, diversify you
(38:42):
some of the other philosophical, long term things that we've
honed in our skills at call us at nine one
six nine six seven thirty five hundred and you can
do that for a new obligation consultation and or you
could do that to sign up for our retire workshop.
So if you're about to retire, you just retired, or
(39:05):
you're currently retired, you know, come to that workshop. We
feed you a good dinner, and I can guarantee you
you'll enjoy it and it'll be a good use of
your time. In fact, we've never had anybody say, gosh,
I wish I didn't go to that, that was a
waste of my time. Ever, and we collect feedback, so
that's how we're confident we can say that so called
(39:27):
nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 3 (39:31):
So I think we're in a better spot with a
ninety day delay, I think a lot, you know, I
think that that's the focus of the work to be
done within that ninety days. And then the administration pushing
forward on the the you know, tax cuts and any
other further tax cuts what helped to bolster and support.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
So there was tax cuts getting and a budget getting
through Congress. It passed during the week two sixteen two
fourteen a very thin margin. But then that to go
off to the Senate and hopefully won't get pushed back
too much, and then make it to the President's desk
to sign that would be huge. And the reason why
(40:10):
we didn't see a rally from that is because it
still has to get through the rest of the process,
which is again past the Senate, get signed by the
president and hopefully, you know, it has everything that Trump
has promised, and if it does, that would be another
reason why the markets may shoot back up.
Speaker 3 (40:30):
Yeah. Here, well, inflation data came out this week and
it was softer and anticipating.
Speaker 2 (40:35):
You mean these tariffs aren't causing massive inflation.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
Like, yeah, well it's a little too soon, I mean.
And that's that's the same thing where you know, Trump's
been in office, it's only April. Yeah, and they're like, well,
he hasn't done this. He hasn't. He's only been in
for a few months, so you got to you got
to give us some time. But yeah, and that but
that is a good thing. That is supportive, especially if
it gets to the point where Federal Reserve does step
(41:01):
in and then you start cutting rates. We want to
see that inflation number software that anticipated.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
Yeah, because quite frankly, if the Fed cuts rates without
inflation data going down, then we could get into a
stagflation scenario and rates may actually go up because we
see every bag I don't care from highly seasoned uh
you know, economists, strategists, you know, analysts, money managers. Too
(41:28):
inexperienced ones knew that the Fed should not be cutting
interest rates, and the market you know, proved it by
interest rates actually going up when the Fed cut you
know what a point and a half when rates went
higher at one point. So, you know, with with with
the recession potentially looming, if we see an economic slow down,
(41:52):
then I think rate cuts by the Fed would actually
reduce the interest rate environment that we're in.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Otherwise are slow and continue to slow in the market
where it deems them to come in and cut, then yeah,
then yeah.
Speaker 2 (42:05):
So you've been listening to the wise money guys, John
Scambray and to Seppie Visconti. Again, we urge you to
come in for a no obligation consultation. It'll be a
great use of your time. Or register for our workshop
on Wednesday, April thirtieth, from six to seven thirty pm
in Roseville. Give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. Hope you enjoyed the show,
(42:29):
have a wonderful weekend.
Speaker 3 (42:30):
Talk to you next week.
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