March 13, 2025 • 40 mins
Wow. Watch this bouncing market. One day its up and the next day it's down. Hosts John and Giuseppe will keep us calm with the best tips for retiring investors to avoid mistakes. Plus calming recession fears, the joys of structured investments, and we announce our next investing seminar for April. The Wise Money Guys!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm your
co host John Scambran. I'm here with my partner just
up you Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers that
specialize in helping people who are retired are about to
retire manage their money. If you like our show, give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and you can do a no obligation consultation.
(00:38):
You can, you know, visit our website as well. Just
if you're just looking for more information.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Wisemoneyguys dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
And then you can also just ask us a question.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
At question at Wysemoneyguys dot com. You can also visit
us on YouTube. Oh yeah, we've been running that for
almost three months now.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Thanks a closer to four is it four?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
And time flies? Yep. So if you want a video
and to actually see, you know, put a handsome faces, yeah,
put a face to the voice that you're listening to,
you can go onto YouTube. Just search Wise Money Guys
or the Wise Money Guys. You'll be able to search us.
You can subscribe, We have videos, we have shorts, and
then we also have x dot com. So throughout the
(01:22):
week usually we'll put some economic or commentary in regards
to the market or economic data or indicators that are
coming in intra week, and you can follow us on
x dot com as well.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
So there's absolutely no excuse to ever miss. What we
have to say is what you're saying. Also, we are
a wealth management company. Our company that sponsors this show
is One Source Wealth Management that is SEC licensed number
three one nine zero seven eight. Again, for disclosures or
(01:54):
more information, you can visit our website which is Wisemoneyguys
dot com, scroll to the bottom and always once again,
our main phone number is nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. If you're listening in the Bay area,
we do have an office on California in Walnut Creek,
as well as an office that we utilize in San Mateo.
(02:16):
So there's really no reason to not call for a
no obligation consultation, especially if you're having a rough go
so far and you don't know what to do this year,
based on policies monetary and fiscally, based on you know,
tariff wars, based on just general economics and the economics
(02:41):
slowdown that we're starting to potentially see so on and
so forth, and always listen to this show for just
great tools and tips. So I guess more tips than tools. Well,
there are tools on our website.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Yeah, So there's retirement Calculate and there's articles and you
know that's related to the financial market. So another resource
that you and it's all free that you can just
reach out to you.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
And basic videos on you know, very basic but very good,
high quality, you know, strategies and processes to do when
it comes to managing your money. They're called there's both
flip books and then there's a number of videos on
things as simple as asset allocation, diversification, you know, dollar
(03:32):
cost averaging, so on and so forth. So our event
was was great as always. Yeah, first one of the year,
first one of the year was in Conquered at the
old Spaghetti Factory, which is a great venue. It's been
there for decades. I remember I grew up and conquered,
so I remember going to that, you know, forty years ago.
(03:52):
And it's still there, and and and the downtown conquered
area has has really you know, prospered and looks great.
There's good parking behind it in a parking garage, there's
lots of parking up front in front of it. But overall,
I mean another you know, great turnout with great questions,
(04:13):
gree great questions.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I think this is probably the probably the best workshop
that had maybe the most engagement that we've seen as
far as attendees asking questions on on on the topics
that we're recovering.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Yeah, and and once again, if you registered for that
and planned on a planned on attending and then you
didn't because of the weather, you know, we absolutely will
do kind of a mini version and a consultation one
on one at our Walnut Creek office. So don't be shy,
(04:49):
there's no pressure. We'll kind of give you the same
overview on what we do and how we help people
and and and you can see if that's a fit
and make a decision for yourself. So give us a
hauler to schedule that at nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred. Again nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred, So we got to dive into
(05:13):
the year and how it's going and some of the
headwinds now.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
We've been saying and headlines, headlines, you know, it's the
R word. The R word has surfaced again. Recession, Yeah, right,
and the recessionary fears and worries and are we heading
into recessions? And all the you know, is all the
tariff talk going to push us into recession?
Speaker 2 (05:32):
And we talked abough there's no slowdown in GDP, there's
no major spike in unemployment, there's no massive slowdown in
consumer spending. So there's literally no signs of recession whatsoever
except the yield curve, which we talked quite a bit about,
and the headlines and the fact that the the the
(05:56):
heavily cap weighted positions of the S and P they
were overvalued, right, and quite frankly, don't you feel like
this this correction, because the Nasdaq is in correction territory,
which it is ten percent down, was warranted? I mean,
and it's healthy well with.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
How the markets have done in twenty twenty three and
twenty twenty four. Yeah. I was just talking to a
friend of mine earlier this morning. He also is in
the same industry and you know, talking about client concerned,
you know, clients are starting to be concerned and worried
and having questions, and there's a recession coming and so
on and so forth. But if Mark pulls back ten
(06:37):
or even twenty percent after the two big years that
we've had, it's not I mean, it could be healthy.
Some of those names were just getting way, way too lofty.
And it also shows the the waiting. I know we
say waiting, but the magnitude of influence that these magnificent
seven are magnificent ten, right, it changes from time to time.
(06:59):
But then Vidia, Tesla, so and so forth has on
the overall indices, and Video is down by like thirty
percent or was down about thirty percent from peak to trough.
Tesla was down about fifty percent from peak to trough.
So ten percent in S and P five hundred or
NASDAC per se and seven seven and a half percent
down in S and P five hundred. That's not that bad.
(07:21):
But a big component of that is these big names
that are down by a healthy double digits because they're
dragging everything down. But I think that's healthy because now
hopefully it could be broadened out into the other four
hundred and ninety three companies that make up the S
and P five hundred and not just solely be written
on the backs of seven to ten different companies you
(07:44):
know of that industry.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
So strategy reminder kind of number one, two and three.
If you've been listening to this show for some time,
or if your clients have ours, you know that our
principles are basically, don't over bet on anyone position, and
don't over allocate to anyone category of investments, and use
(08:07):
strategies like dollar cost averaging, and as jo Seppi said,
I mean it's it's healthy. We've wanted, you know, prices
to where we felt like we could enter back into
some of these big name positions or quite frankly, into
positions that are now more value oriented because financially the
(08:28):
price they're now trading at makes a lot more sense,
especially when you love dividing pain interest pain investments like
we do. So once again, here we are, we're just
giving I think what, well, I don't want to. Yes,
I will say it brilliant you know advice that has
(08:49):
literally saved people, you know, hundreds of thousands, thousands to
millions of dollars by following you know, our principles or
by Hiart hiring us quite frankly, because we don't panic,
which is another real tip.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
And we don't marry ourselves to a company another great
tip or anything that's where people they get married to
it or it's done so well for them in the
past two three years. Oh yeah, it's going to come back.
But then they're just it's down five percent, it's down
ten percent, it's down fifteen, it's down twenty. Doesn't mean
that you sell out of it, but maybe you trim.
If you're overweighted and you're concentrated in a few or
(09:29):
handful of names, trim, trim from some of those positions
and spread it out.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yeah, let's talk about one of the number one, maybe
number two things that we find that people who are
retired or about to retire do and and make mistakes
when it comes to their portfolios. Especially Giseppie and I
were talking the market hit fifty seven. We mean the
market the S and P five hundred as a general barometer,
(09:57):
or the Nasdaq fifty in times you know, in the
recent you know, twelve months all time.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yeah, so in twenty twenty four, the S and P
five hundred hit all time high records fifty seven times. Yeah,
and that's what that's what hits the headlines, and that's
what people get caught up with when they're watching the
financial news. And maybe they only need a six or
seven percent average on your return on their portfolio to
get them to where they want to go as far
as their goals. But then they see the all time high,
(10:25):
al time high, and they say, hey, we need more sucks.
What about that in video? What about bitcoin? What about this?
What about that? Can we put that in there? You can?
But now you're just adding unnecessary risk to your overall portfolio.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
So the number one mistake that we find in people's
portfolios when they come and sit down with us is
they take on too much risk. They're over invested in
in risk investments like stocks. And the number two mistake
that we see in most people's portfolios is they don't
(11:00):
focus enough on cash flow. And what we mean by
that is and we spent a lot of time talking
about this last night in our workshop and showing people,
you know, the types of returns they could expect from stocks,
from bonds, from alternatives. They don't focus on cash flow,
and we gave examples of imagine your real estate portfolio.
(11:24):
If you're a real estate investor and you just never
rented those properties. Sure the property could go up and
down in value property and hopefully your properties are going
up in value, but imagine how much return and performance
you're missing out on by not having the income from
rents and stocks and bonds and alternative investments, which we
(11:48):
really love that space, and we'll talk probably about some
alternative investment ideas. But by focusing on cash flow first,
focusing on risk and reducing your risk, then focus seen
on what things pay you while you're invested in them
as the main way to get the performance you need
is just crucial.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
Right, And I think one of the questions we had
when we were going through some of our slides in
our deck is the confusion of the cash flow and
we're putting up yields and there was different numbers eight
and a half percent, three percent, ten percent for some,
and then people were misconstruting that with oh, is that
(12:30):
the return. No, that's just a component of the total return.
There's the price movement of that investment itself that can
go up or down, which is the market value, and
that's going to be the growth component of that investment
that you invest in. But then the other part or
the other component is what it's actually paying you that
cash flow, whether it's dividend or interest, if it's a
(12:53):
bond or a stock, you combine those two together, those
two components, and that's your overall total return earn. The
nice thing is that when you're nearing retirement or planning for,
or you're already in retirement, that's what we're focusing on
is how do you actually have a portfolio that creates
a paycheck for you? Well that having you to decide
(13:15):
which investments do I have to sell off right now
to create the cash that I need for my income
that I need for my retirement, and especially when you're
going through volatile time like right now. Let's say you
just got into Nvidia in let's say October right because
seems you're great and the video is great back then
or whenever, whenever the high was and there was euphoria
and then video was the next best thing since slice
(13:36):
spread right, people wanted to pile in. But then now
it's lost thirty percent of its value. What do you do?
Do you sell off that Invidia because you need to
because not paying you a dividend, and now now you
have to be forced in a position where you're selling
off the Nvidia. Now might be a good time to
sell off. You're already now you're realizing that negative thirty
percent return.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Yeah, I don't think you gave yourself enough credit. You
kind of brushed over something very quickly. If you attended
our workshop last March, so a year ago, we showed
people the portfolio that Giuseppe created the next month April,
and that many of the people who hired us to
(14:18):
work for them from our March workshop or other clients,
the portfolio that he created going back to exactly one
year paid out on average just in the stock piece
over three percent dividends. And as of the day before yesterday,
(14:39):
when the market was down it's worst.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
It was actually Tuesday, So Monday we had that big
sell off, and then Tuesday the very next.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Day, and so you made sure that you ran your
report with that big sell off, the portfolio from a
price perspective was still up seven point four to six percent.
So so with dividends, this is an approximation, you're roughly
if you didn't spend those dividends up ten percent in
(15:09):
plus in that last twelve months. Now you compare and
contrast that to just the year to date market movement.
You know, you're down potentially in your stock portfolio five ten,
fifteen to twenty percent or worse if you're in the
mag seven stocks like Joseppi mentioned where in videos down
(15:30):
fifty percent, peaked to trough. You know, thirty Teslas down,
fifty Tesla's downfit up. Thank you give yourself, you know,
major props because that just really shows that the alpha
it's called, which is our brain power versus just buying
an index fund or having a passive approach.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Well, and we compared it to that, so it's a
good point. The index fund, the SMP five hundred if
you want to invest in that as spy, that's a
widely known ETF that tracts sm P five hundred. And
during that same period of time from April first until
March eleventh, essentially that the s and P five hundred
spy was up like six point four percent or so.
(16:13):
The yield the dividend it pays is one point one
to one point two percent. Then if you look at
other ETFs, Vanguard Value Index ETF, which is just a
bunch of stock value stocks and they're going to have
more dividend payers in there, so it has a higher
dividend yield, but still only two point two percent, and
that was up I think it was just under five percent.
(16:35):
And then the RSP which is another ETF. It's the
sm P five hundred, but equal weighted, so it's not
going to have a bigger influence on some of those
tech names, has a little bit higher dividend yield than
the SPY the SMP five hundred cap weighted fund, but
that was only up from April first until March eleventh,
just over two percent. As far as price appreciation, keep.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
In mind that, and we have to always make people
realize that you know, first and foremost, you want to
talk to your advisor, you want to talk to your
tax professional. Any tips and strategies that we're talking about,
you definitely want to consult. You know, the people that
you rely on, and if you're not relying on anyone,
please give us a call for a consultation at nine
(17:20):
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Also, there's
so much being thrown at people these days. Systems and
now I'm seeing, of course oh Ai platform where you know,
you'll use our money and you can't lose any money,
and you'll make run. Never, in my opinion, call those
(17:42):
places because quite frankly, there is no such strategy that
you can't lose money. So if anybody's going, oh this
this is full proof, you know, please give us a call.
Let us, you know, dive into what it is you're
considering so that you really know what the what the nuances,
(18:03):
the risks and the costs are before making any sort
of big investment decision. Again called nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. You know, I've been looking
at us on the screen, so as we're doing the
radio show, we were seeing ourselves and what we're recording
on the screen, and we couldn't be more bobbsey twins
(18:25):
than we are. Wive well we have on the identical one.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
I was about to put my jacket onto you, and
I said, you know, I'm not going to put my jacket.
He as his jacket. I wasn't even paying attention to
pull on.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
So if you want to see how funny we are
and watch our show, definitely visit YouTube a search for
the Wise Money guys and you'll find us and and
if you can't stay tuned for the entire show, you
can get what you missed on YouTube and always if
you want your own private show, which is what we
highly suggest. We don't want to see people who have
(19:02):
worked so hard for their money lose money this year
because they've taken on too much risk. They're panicking, they
bought high, they're selling low, and making all the typical
emotional mistakes that people make, which sadly most advisors make.
That are helping these people give us a call at
nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. You know,
(19:26):
if somebody's listening for the first time or came to
our workshop the first time, you know, they had the benefit,
you know, of getting our background and who we are
and who we are and stuff like that. And then
I thought we could share some of the questions that
we were asked and then obviously what the answers are
that's important. So, first of all, Giseppe and I have
(19:49):
been in this industry, the financial services industry in various capacities,
for a very long time, me since nineteen ninety two
and Giuseppe since two thousand and eight, and we do
like to say we're battle tested because through those years,
through all the different kinds of clients that we've gotten
(20:10):
to know and help, you know, you just can't replace
that experience. Especially over the course of that almost combined
fifty years, there's been every kind of economic, world, political,
you know, policy type situation thrown at us while managing
(20:32):
our clients and investments. So that's really important, and our
listeners should know that, you know, you're not just with
some guys that have only been doing this for a
couple of years and don't know anything but a great
you know, economic environment and a great you know stock
market environment since we've really had since twenty nineteen. Quite frankly, yep,
(20:56):
we did have a bad market in twenty twenty two, Benrolico.
But if you look at going from twenty nineteen, especially
some of your models, or.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Twenty ten, really oh, twenty ten and beyond, if you've
if you've gone, if you got past the financial crisis
in two thousand and eight, I mean it's been There's
been some bumps in the road for sure, and twenty
twenty was scary because nobody knew what was going on.
But with all the stimulus measures, we flew flewrat out
of it.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
And if you want education and credentials and alphabet suit
behind people's names, we've got that too. We are students
of this game and we never stop striving to learn
and know and be knowledgeable about, you know, the top
types of strategies that are out there to help people
either grow their money or make the most amount of
(21:45):
money from a cash flow perspective that they can. And
we'll talk about one of those at the very end,
and we're saving it for the very end, so you
keep listening. And so but let's let's go into some
of the questions. One of the big questions was, Okay, great,
you know you show people how to increase their income,
(22:07):
you know, what are the tax ramifications for that?
Speaker 3 (22:10):
Right? Yeah, And if it's an A, if it's in
an ERA, A qualified you know, retirement account, then it
doesn't it doesn't matter. Inside the account, it's all going
to be tax deferred. What matters is when you actually
pull it out of the account, then you're paying income
taxes on whatever portion you're you're pulling out, and the
income taxes you're going to pay is going to be
based off of the income tax bracket that you're in. Now,
(22:32):
you want to be cognizant because if you have a
year where you're going to be pulling more out than
other years, it could bump you up into the next
tax bracket. So you want to be cognizant to have
a conversation with your tax consultant to see if that
is going to impact you overall income and your tax
bracket and what you're paying a tax.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
And we can plan for it in your financial plan
as well, just as far as things like tax loss
harvesting and stuff like that.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Which if it's a taxable account, then yeah, that's when
it matters. You know, when you're not in an IRA
or qualified account, then that's where you have to be
more cognizant of short term capital gains, long term capital gains,
how long you're holding positions, you know, dividend qualified dividends
or not, and those are going to be different taxations
based off of holding periods typically of the investments within
(23:19):
your portfolio.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
Yeah. So another big question was of course about our fees,
but then what is our communication? How often do we
meet with clients, how often do they receive things from
and we are not passive advisors, so many people. The
other thing that we see when they come, is they go.
We never hear from our person unless they're asking for
(23:43):
more money. And so that is so typical and sadly
the norm. If anything, people, you know, especially our clients,
we over communicate, We over meet and and many times
they've said, you know, I don't need to meet that often,
(24:03):
but bare minimum how much communication? How often are we
going to meet with people and update their you know,
financial plan.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Or or just once once every ten years in their
ear minimum you want to meet once, you know, if
everything is honky dory, no life events or anything like that,
then at least once a year you want to touch base,
go over the go over the macro, the financial plan,
making sure that the portfolios in alignment with your overall
financial plan, your goals, your timeline, so on and so forth,
(24:36):
just to make sure you're on track. And everybody's different.
Some people have a lot more needs and a little
bit more complicated a financial balance seat and so that
requires more more meetings. Some you know, everything is fine
and they don't need as much, and once a year
is is great. I'd say on average it's two a year.
Some clients it's going to be every quarter. So it's
(24:57):
going to be four year, you know. And then we
have some clients they are a little bit more in
tuned and want to be a little bit more active
with Hey, this is going on the market or that,
and what's your thoughts on this or thoughts on that.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
Yeah, some clients we talk to weekly because they're always
the headlines of the news. Yeah, worried about those headlines.
And that's fine too, you know. And then the big question,
of course is always you know, what do you guys
charge how much commissions? And first of all, we're not
commission advisors. We are fiduciaries. That's the other big question.
(25:29):
Are you a fiduciary? And we get that over and
over again in every workshop, and yes, absolutely we are
fiduciaries and we do not work on a commission. And
more importantly, our average fee is about one percent. Some
are paying a little more, some are paying a little less.
It just depends on the size of the relationship and
(25:52):
you know what it is we're doing for you. But
on average, it's one percent. To be exact, it's one
point zero five percent is our average household fee. And
the beauty of it is is that we charge one
fourth of that, so basically point two five a quarter
(26:12):
of one percent after the end of every quarter, not
upfront like many free uh uh advanced companies advance fee,
but right now for the people that let's say, came
to our workshop and then they come in for a
one on one and then they decide to hire us,
more than likely we're not. We're doing everything. We're helping,
(26:35):
you know, with whatever paperwork's involved. If you're a Charles
Schwab advisor, there will be no paperwork because we're affiliated
with Charles Schwab. I mean, there'll be a you know,
that's our main custodian, so that would be very simple.
But you're not going to pay your first full quarter's
fee until July. So basically you get to see what
(26:56):
we're gonna do for you and and and create the financially,
create the financial plant, do all this work, and you're
not gonna have to pay a single cent for that
until July. And if things aren't what we said they
are by July, there's no long term commitments. It's not
like you bought an annuity on contractor and you can't
(27:19):
change your mind. So again that was probably the three
biggest questions.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
I want to make another point, you know, we didn't
touch on it now that I think about it. But
the other thing that's important in fees too, especially when
it's a management fee. You know one percent, half percent,
two percent, whatever the firms are charging, is is that
a flat Is that an actual rate or is it
a blended rate? Sometimes firms a lot or tiered. This
(27:47):
is this is pretty common amongst big firms, is what
they'll do as they say, yeah, a million dollars one percent,
but it comes in tiered buckets. So you know, from
zero to the first five hundred they'll charge you maybe
one and a half or one point six or whatever.
Then from five hundred to a million, you know they're
(28:08):
going to charge you another fee one point two five,
and then from a million to one point five you're
getting charged one percent. So you have to add up
and blend those three buckets or tranches, right, and that's
going to be your actual overall average fee. It's like,
we don't do that.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Point yeah, what if you have a million bucks?
Speaker 3 (28:26):
If you have a million bucks, is one percent? Take
plenty and simple. We're not going to say, well, the
first five hundred is one point five, the second five
hundred is this, and so on and so.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
Forth, and our next break point is if you're at
two million or more, it's point seventy five, right, So
it's even across the board, it's even less. And again,
like you said, it's not tiered. That is the true
fee that you pay. So we're very fair, especially since
we are very active. Our communication is probably second to none.
(28:56):
Our meetings and the time we spend with each client
helping them achieve success and whatever success is to them
is like I said, probably second to none. And so
if this is starting to make some good sense to you,
and you're worried about this year and you know the
(29:18):
years to come, especially with everything that's going on, give
us a call for an absolutely no obligation, no pressure whatsoever,
consultation by calling nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Okay, here's what we're going to talk about
this last segment. First of all, I've got an exciting
(29:38):
announcement so our next event. So if you wanted to
attend this event, that was just fantastic and not just
in our opinion, but are our feedback forms opinion which
we do collect and we take very serious. Call us
to register for our next workshop, which is on April
(30:00):
thirtieth at the Old Spaghetti Factory on Sunrise in Roseville, California,
from six to seven thirty pm. Again, that's our next
workshop where we you know, open up the curtains, pull
back the covers, really dive into why the way we
(30:21):
do things for our clients is really second to none
and could benefit you. So call nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred Again that's April thirtieth, which
is a Wednesday, from six to seven thirty pm at
the Old Spaghetti Factory. Okay, before we let's end with
(30:41):
that juicy investment that we've been putting in clients accounts
and we have a new one that's coming out next week.
And so but let's go over You wanted to touch
upon some of the economic things, and so I never
did that, ye in any other segment.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
Right, Yeah, recession fears are surfacing again. The yield curve
inversion just happened again recently with between the ten year
treasury and the three month treasury, which is an indicator
that has been used and you look back in time
that has predicted recessions before recessions happened, and it was
(31:23):
already inverted that happened back in twenty twenty two, then
it uninverted and then now just reinverted. So what does
that mean. Are we going into recession? Are we not?
We are in a different environment and every recession, whenever
recession does happen, is different every time. But here's the
(31:43):
positive news. GDP growth in some of this indication is lagging,
indication may not be leading, or there can be a
combination of both. But GDB growth the other thing that
surfaces Atlanta Fed, g GDP now forecasts, and that's forecasting
a negative quarter and GDP and you get two of those,
(32:04):
and that's the definition of a recession. But they don't
take into context all of the economic indicator and data.
They all work a little bit differently. New York Fed,
Dallas Fed, Atlanta Fed. They taken they look at measurements
a little bit differently. New York Fed and Dallas Fed
when you look at their indicators doesn't show the same
(32:24):
negative context that Atlanta Fed. GDP now forecast or now
cast is what it's called. So GDP growth looks like
it's going to be positive. Jobs, job market, like John said,
still unemployment is at a rate that's very low. It's
not an alarming indicator for the Fed to take any interaction.
Consumer spending has slowed down, but still there is plenty
(32:47):
of demand out there, and that's a big culprit for
a recession because that is like sixty seventy percent of
our GDP is consumer spending. Inflation has been sticky, but
the most recent inflation data is out this week. The
CPI and PPI showed a little bit of slowing, so
that's positive. We see energy coming down a little bit,
(33:08):
oil oil coming down, which is great. We've seen interest rates,
not by via the Fed, but by the market has
been pushing them down. The tenure treasure was up to
four point eight percent not that long ago, and now
it dipped down. Yeah it's four point three now, but
it dipped down to just over four percent. So that
gave a little bit of relief to loans out there
that people borrow money. The worries out there is there
(33:31):
are still some uncertainties. Right. Is the inversion of the
YULD cur that just happened again? Is it? Is it
waving a red flag and giving us a warning? The
trade war? You know, what are the tariffs? You know?
How is this all going to pan out? Are we
going to come to the negotiation table sooner rather than later,
or is this going to drag on? That can have
an impact on the on the market, obviously in corporate profits.
(33:55):
And then you know institutional estimates. What are the institutions
saying out there? What's the probability recession? JP Morgan's putting
at a forty five percent probability recession, who knows if
they're right or not, Goldman Sachs twenty percent probability for recession, Moody's,
which is a credit rating agency, less than twenty percent.
A lot of times these forecasts change month to month,
(34:16):
quarter by quarter. I think things slowing down and the
market taking a little bit of a breather is good
and constructive for the markets. Now, if it gets too deep,
right and there's a chain reaction, then that can cause
other issues. But the run up that we've had in
the past couple of years, and especially some of these
names and the AI boom and all the euphoria, it
(34:37):
has to take a breather. It can't continue to run up.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
You know, it wouldn't be too much of a leap
to believe that, you know, some of the policies on
a national level are to put us into a slower
economic growth environment to actually get rates to go down.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Right, Yeah, we've talked about that.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
And so that obviously that would then be a stimulus
to skyrocket the economy from there. Yeah, so cutting out
all the dead weight in employment in the economy and
then you know, hopefully see some sort of change a
(35:23):
monetary policy on top of you know, the the environment
for credit coming down on its own, and then we
could really see a new start to you know, the
bull run that's been happening since twenty nineteen, since twenty ten,
and now start a new leg up. That's that's kind
(35:44):
of what I believe is going to happen, because if
there is a contraction GDP, I think it'll be short term.
I don't think it'll be multiple quarters in a row.
Companies earnings and profitability was just too good and continues
to be too good.
Speaker 3 (35:59):
We had that right. It's just a couple of years
ago we had a couple couple quarters that were negative
GDP and then they said, oh, well, that's well, that's
not we're not really in a recession. Because you gott
to look at the indicators. It used to be the
definition for recession, but it isn't anymore.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
Yeah, No, you're absolutely right. Okay, Despite all those things,
there is always great areas to put your money.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
All work for, areas of opportunity.
Speaker 2 (36:23):
Always and one of the ones that we just really
love is an alternative strategy that kind of not kind
of combines both a fixed component stocks and bold as
well as a variable component as well as a downside
protection component, a buffer if you will, So so three
(36:45):
for one, so it's a three for And you just
can't ignore things like this from companies like ours, where
these things are custom created, you know, through partners of
ours that are very big partners, and that we offer
to our clients. And what the heck am I talking about?
Speaker 3 (37:09):
No, I'm joking.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
So a structured note and really what that is and
does for a client. And again anything we talk about,
consult you know, your professionals on it to see if
it's right for you, or give us a call to
see if it's right for you. But as always, keep
in mind that one of the main principles that we
(37:34):
stress over and over is again is don't over bet
on anyone position. So if you go try to find
a firm like ours that offers these types of investments.
Don't put fifty percent of your money in it or
twenty five percent of your money. Keep it to less
than ten percent. We use a rule of thumb of
(37:54):
five percent, and that's a pretty good rule. But what
is a structured note, Juseppe? And how does it accomplish
those three things that I just mentioned?
Speaker 3 (38:03):
Yeah, it varies. There's different types, different sizes, and some
are more growth oriented, some are more cash flow and
income oriented. So this one is from Bank of America,
that is the issuer. We're excited because it fits within
some of our client's portfolios. I'm not sure if it'll
fit for you or not. But it's eighteen months, it's
(38:24):
on the shorter term. But the nice thing is it
has a juicy potential return, which is twelve point four
percent a year. That's higher than the average S and
P five hundred and your return.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
In any given decade quite fright.
Speaker 3 (38:40):
Yeah, But it has a thirty percent downside barrier, which
simply means that it's tied to a few different stock indices,
and if one of those stock indices goes down by
thirty percent or more than you know, a loser. Yeah,
it's a loser for that month because it has a
monthly observation, so every month it'll take a look at
the three indices, what the levels are in compared to
(39:01):
its initial value. So the nice thing is that while
we're in this poolback environment, the market you're going down fantastic, right,
and you get into something while the markets are down.
Now you have another thirty percent from that point moving forward.
So if there's a recovery in the market, you're just
putting yourself in a better position. If market continues to
pull back, at least you have that much more room
(39:22):
to go before you're not you know, realizing the potential.
But on a monthly basis, every month you have the
potential to earn just over one percent per month, and
then once it matures eighteen months from now, then you
get your principle back. As long as the worst performer
of those three indices that attracts is not down on
that specific maturity date thirty percent or more, right, then
(39:45):
you get your principal back. Plus you've collected that twelve
point four per year, and that's it. And the nice
thing is it provides it monthly, so it's additional cashlow,
especially for the retirees, if you want.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
More information on structured notes, or just want to come
in for a nose obligation consultation to see how an
investment like this would fit in your portfolio and help
you accomplish your growth and income goals. Make sure you
give the Wise Money guys a call by calling nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. You've been
(40:16):
listening to John scambering to Seppi Fisconti. Hope you enjoyed
the show and have a wonderful weekend.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
By all, have a great weekend. Talk to you next week.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm your
co host John Scambran. I'm here with my partner just
up you Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers that
specialize in helping people who are retired are about to
retire manage their money. If you like our show, give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred and you can do a no obligation consultation.
(00:38):
You can, you know, visit our website as well. Just
if you're just looking for more information.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
Wisemoneyguys dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
And then you can also just ask us a question.
Speaker 3 (00:49):
At question at Wysemoneyguys dot com. You can also visit
us on YouTube. Oh yeah, we've been running that for
almost three months now.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Thanks a closer to four is it four?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
And time flies? Yep. So if you want a video
and to actually see, you know, put a handsome faces, yeah,
put a face to the voice that you're listening to,
you can go onto YouTube. Just search Wise Money Guys
or the Wise Money Guys. You'll be able to search us.
You can subscribe, We have videos, we have shorts, and
then we also have x dot com. So throughout the
(01:22):
week usually we'll put some economic or commentary in regards
to the market or economic data or indicators that are
coming in intra week, and you can follow us on
x dot com as well.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
So there's absolutely no excuse to ever miss. What we
have to say is what you're saying. Also, we are
a wealth management company. Our company that sponsors this show
is One Source Wealth Management that is SEC licensed number
three one nine zero seven eight. Again, for disclosures or
(01:54):
more information, you can visit our website which is Wisemoneyguys
dot com, scroll to the bottom and always once again,
our main phone number is nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. If you're listening in the Bay area,
we do have an office on California in Walnut Creek,
as well as an office that we utilize in San Mateo.
(02:16):
So there's really no reason to not call for a
no obligation consultation, especially if you're having a rough go
so far and you don't know what to do this year,
based on policies monetary and fiscally, based on you know,
tariff wars, based on just general economics and the economics
(02:41):
slowdown that we're starting to potentially see so on and
so forth, and always listen to this show for just
great tools and tips. So I guess more tips than tools. Well,
there are tools on our website.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Yeah, So there's retirement Calculate and there's articles and you
know that's related to the financial market. So another resource
that you and it's all free that you can just
reach out to you.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
And basic videos on you know, very basic but very good,
high quality, you know, strategies and processes to do when
it comes to managing your money. They're called there's both
flip books and then there's a number of videos on
things as simple as asset allocation, diversification, you know, dollar
(03:32):
cost averaging, so on and so forth. So our event
was was great as always. Yeah, first one of the year,
first one of the year was in Conquered at the
old Spaghetti Factory, which is a great venue. It's been
there for decades. I remember I grew up and conquered,
so I remember going to that, you know, forty years ago.
(03:52):
And it's still there, and and and the downtown conquered
area has has really you know, prospered and looks great.
There's good parking behind it in a parking garage, there's
lots of parking up front in front of it. But overall,
I mean another you know, great turnout with great questions,
(04:13):
gree great questions.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I think this is probably the probably the best workshop
that had maybe the most engagement that we've seen as
far as attendees asking questions on on on the topics
that we're recovering.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Yeah, and and once again, if you registered for that
and planned on a planned on attending and then you
didn't because of the weather, you know, we absolutely will
do kind of a mini version and a consultation one
on one at our Walnut Creek office. So don't be shy,
(04:49):
there's no pressure. We'll kind of give you the same
overview on what we do and how we help people
and and and you can see if that's a fit
and make a decision for yourself. So give us a
hauler to schedule that at nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred. Again nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred, So we got to dive into
(05:13):
the year and how it's going and some of the
headwinds now.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
We've been saying and headlines, headlines, you know, it's the
R word. The R word has surfaced again. Recession, Yeah, right,
and the recessionary fears and worries and are we heading
into recessions? And all the you know, is all the
tariff talk going to push us into recession?
Speaker 2 (05:32):
And we talked abough there's no slowdown in GDP, there's
no major spike in unemployment, there's no massive slowdown in
consumer spending. So there's literally no signs of recession whatsoever
except the yield curve, which we talked quite a bit about,
and the headlines and the fact that the the the
(05:56):
heavily cap weighted positions of the S and P they
were overvalued, right, and quite frankly, don't you feel like
this this correction, because the Nasdaq is in correction territory,
which it is ten percent down, was warranted? I mean,
and it's healthy well with.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
How the markets have done in twenty twenty three and
twenty twenty four. Yeah. I was just talking to a
friend of mine earlier this morning. He also is in
the same industry and you know, talking about client concerned,
you know, clients are starting to be concerned and worried
and having questions, and there's a recession coming and so
on and so forth. But if Mark pulls back ten
(06:37):
or even twenty percent after the two big years that
we've had, it's not I mean, it could be healthy.
Some of those names were just getting way, way too lofty.
And it also shows the the waiting. I know we
say waiting, but the magnitude of influence that these magnificent
seven are magnificent ten, right, it changes from time to time.
(06:59):
But then Vidia, Tesla, so and so forth has on
the overall indices, and Video is down by like thirty
percent or was down about thirty percent from peak to trough.
Tesla was down about fifty percent from peak to trough.
So ten percent in S and P five hundred or
NASDAC per se and seven seven and a half percent
down in S and P five hundred. That's not that bad.
(07:21):
But a big component of that is these big names
that are down by a healthy double digits because they're
dragging everything down. But I think that's healthy because now
hopefully it could be broadened out into the other four
hundred and ninety three companies that make up the S
and P five hundred and not just solely be written
on the backs of seven to ten different companies you
(07:44):
know of that industry.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
So strategy reminder kind of number one, two and three.
If you've been listening to this show for some time,
or if your clients have ours, you know that our
principles are basically, don't over bet on anyone position, and
don't over allocate to anyone category of investments, and use
(08:07):
strategies like dollar cost averaging, and as jo Seppi said,
I mean it's it's healthy. We've wanted, you know, prices
to where we felt like we could enter back into
some of these big name positions or quite frankly, into
positions that are now more value oriented because financially the
(08:28):
price they're now trading at makes a lot more sense,
especially when you love dividing pain interest pain investments like
we do. So once again, here we are, we're just
giving I think what, well, I don't want to. Yes,
I will say it brilliant you know advice that has
(08:49):
literally saved people, you know, hundreds of thousands, thousands to
millions of dollars by following you know, our principles or
by Hiart hiring us quite frankly, because we don't panic,
which is another real tip.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
And we don't marry ourselves to a company another great
tip or anything that's where people they get married to
it or it's done so well for them in the
past two three years. Oh yeah, it's going to come back.
But then they're just it's down five percent, it's down
ten percent, it's down fifteen, it's down twenty. Doesn't mean
that you sell out of it, but maybe you trim.
If you're overweighted and you're concentrated in a few or
(09:29):
handful of names, trim, trim from some of those positions
and spread it out.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yeah, let's talk about one of the number one, maybe
number two things that we find that people who are
retired or about to retire do and and make mistakes
when it comes to their portfolios. Especially Giseppie and I
were talking the market hit fifty seven. We mean the
market the S and P five hundred as a general barometer,
(09:57):
or the Nasdaq fifty in times you know, in the
recent you know, twelve months all time.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yeah, so in twenty twenty four, the S and P
five hundred hit all time high records fifty seven times. Yeah,
and that's what that's what hits the headlines, and that's
what people get caught up with when they're watching the
financial news. And maybe they only need a six or
seven percent average on your return on their portfolio to
get them to where they want to go as far
as their goals. But then they see the all time high,
(10:25):
al time high, and they say, hey, we need more sucks.
What about that in video? What about bitcoin? What about this?
What about that? Can we put that in there? You can?
But now you're just adding unnecessary risk to your overall portfolio.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
So the number one mistake that we find in people's
portfolios when they come and sit down with us is
they take on too much risk. They're over invested in
in risk investments like stocks. And the number two mistake
that we see in most people's portfolios is they don't
(11:00):
focus enough on cash flow. And what we mean by
that is and we spent a lot of time talking
about this last night in our workshop and showing people,
you know, the types of returns they could expect from stocks,
from bonds, from alternatives. They don't focus on cash flow,
and we gave examples of imagine your real estate portfolio.
(11:24):
If you're a real estate investor and you just never
rented those properties. Sure the property could go up and
down in value property and hopefully your properties are going
up in value, but imagine how much return and performance
you're missing out on by not having the income from
rents and stocks and bonds and alternative investments, which we
(11:48):
really love that space, and we'll talk probably about some
alternative investment ideas. But by focusing on cash flow first,
focusing on risk and reducing your risk, then focus seen
on what things pay you while you're invested in them
as the main way to get the performance you need
is just crucial.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
Right, And I think one of the questions we had
when we were going through some of our slides in
our deck is the confusion of the cash flow and
we're putting up yields and there was different numbers eight
and a half percent, three percent, ten percent for some,
and then people were misconstruting that with oh, is that
(12:30):
the return. No, that's just a component of the total return.
There's the price movement of that investment itself that can
go up or down, which is the market value, and
that's going to be the growth component of that investment
that you invest in. But then the other part or
the other component is what it's actually paying you that
cash flow, whether it's dividend or interest, if it's a
(12:53):
bond or a stock, you combine those two together, those
two components, and that's your overall total return earn. The
nice thing is that when you're nearing retirement or planning for,
or you're already in retirement, that's what we're focusing on
is how do you actually have a portfolio that creates
a paycheck for you? Well that having you to decide
(13:15):
which investments do I have to sell off right now
to create the cash that I need for my income
that I need for my retirement, and especially when you're
going through volatile time like right now. Let's say you
just got into Nvidia in let's say October right because
seems you're great and the video is great back then
or whenever, whenever the high was and there was euphoria
and then video was the next best thing since slice
(13:36):
spread right, people wanted to pile in. But then now
it's lost thirty percent of its value. What do you do?
Do you sell off that Invidia because you need to
because not paying you a dividend, and now now you
have to be forced in a position where you're selling
off the Nvidia. Now might be a good time to
sell off. You're already now you're realizing that negative thirty
percent return.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
Yeah, I don't think you gave yourself enough credit. You
kind of brushed over something very quickly. If you attended
our workshop last March, so a year ago, we showed
people the portfolio that Giuseppe created the next month April,
and that many of the people who hired us to
(14:18):
work for them from our March workshop or other clients,
the portfolio that he created going back to exactly one
year paid out on average just in the stock piece
over three percent dividends. And as of the day before yesterday,
(14:39):
when the market was down it's worst.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
It was actually Tuesday, So Monday we had that big
sell off, and then Tuesday the very next.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Day, and so you made sure that you ran your
report with that big sell off, the portfolio from a
price perspective was still up seven point four to six percent.
So so with dividends, this is an approximation, you're roughly
if you didn't spend those dividends up ten percent in
(15:09):
plus in that last twelve months. Now you compare and
contrast that to just the year to date market movement.
You know, you're down potentially in your stock portfolio five ten,
fifteen to twenty percent or worse if you're in the
mag seven stocks like Joseppi mentioned where in videos down
(15:30):
fifty percent, peaked to trough. You know, thirty Teslas down,
fifty Tesla's downfit up. Thank you give yourself, you know,
major props because that just really shows that the alpha
it's called, which is our brain power versus just buying
an index fund or having a passive approach.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Well, and we compared it to that, so it's a
good point. The index fund, the SMP five hundred if
you want to invest in that as spy, that's a
widely known ETF that tracts sm P five hundred. And
during that same period of time from April first until
March eleventh, essentially that the s and P five hundred
spy was up like six point four percent or so.
(16:13):
The yield the dividend it pays is one point one
to one point two percent. Then if you look at
other ETFs, Vanguard Value Index ETF, which is just a
bunch of stock value stocks and they're going to have
more dividend payers in there, so it has a higher
dividend yield, but still only two point two percent, and
that was up I think it was just under five percent.
(16:35):
And then the RSP which is another ETF. It's the
sm P five hundred, but equal weighted, so it's not
going to have a bigger influence on some of those
tech names, has a little bit higher dividend yield than
the SPY the SMP five hundred cap weighted fund, but
that was only up from April first until March eleventh,
just over two percent. As far as price appreciation, keep.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
In mind that, and we have to always make people
realize that you know, first and foremost, you want to
talk to your advisor, you want to talk to your
tax professional. Any tips and strategies that we're talking about,
you definitely want to consult. You know, the people that
you rely on, and if you're not relying on anyone,
please give us a call for a consultation at nine
(17:20):
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Also, there's
so much being thrown at people these days. Systems and
now I'm seeing, of course oh Ai platform where you know,
you'll use our money and you can't lose any money,
and you'll make run. Never, in my opinion, call those
(17:42):
places because quite frankly, there is no such strategy that
you can't lose money. So if anybody's going, oh this
this is full proof, you know, please give us a call.
Let us, you know, dive into what it is you're
considering so that you really know what the what the nuances,
(18:03):
the risks and the costs are before making any sort
of big investment decision. Again called nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. You know, I've been looking
at us on the screen, so as we're doing the
radio show, we were seeing ourselves and what we're recording
on the screen, and we couldn't be more bobbsey twins
(18:25):
than we are. Wive well we have on the identical one.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
I was about to put my jacket onto you, and
I said, you know, I'm not going to put my jacket.
He as his jacket. I wasn't even paying attention to
pull on.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
So if you want to see how funny we are
and watch our show, definitely visit YouTube a search for
the Wise Money guys and you'll find us and and
if you can't stay tuned for the entire show, you
can get what you missed on YouTube and always if
you want your own private show, which is what we
highly suggest. We don't want to see people who have
(19:02):
worked so hard for their money lose money this year
because they've taken on too much risk. They're panicking, they
bought high, they're selling low, and making all the typical
emotional mistakes that people make, which sadly most advisors make.
That are helping these people give us a call at
nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. You know,
(19:26):
if somebody's listening for the first time or came to
our workshop the first time, you know, they had the benefit,
you know, of getting our background and who we are
and who we are and stuff like that. And then
I thought we could share some of the questions that
we were asked and then obviously what the answers are
that's important. So, first of all, Giseppe and I have
(19:49):
been in this industry, the financial services industry in various capacities,
for a very long time, me since nineteen ninety two
and Giuseppe since two thousand and eight, and we do
like to say we're battle tested because through those years,
through all the different kinds of clients that we've gotten
(20:10):
to know and help, you know, you just can't replace
that experience. Especially over the course of that almost combined
fifty years, there's been every kind of economic, world, political,
you know, policy type situation thrown at us while managing
(20:32):
our clients and investments. So that's really important, and our
listeners should know that, you know, you're not just with
some guys that have only been doing this for a
couple of years and don't know anything but a great
you know, economic environment and a great you know stock
market environment since we've really had since twenty nineteen. Quite frankly, yep,
(20:56):
we did have a bad market in twenty twenty two, Benrolico.
But if you look at going from twenty nineteen, especially
some of your models, or.
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Twenty ten, really oh, twenty ten and beyond, if you've
if you've gone, if you got past the financial crisis
in two thousand and eight, I mean it's been There's
been some bumps in the road for sure, and twenty
twenty was scary because nobody knew what was going on.
But with all the stimulus measures, we flew flewrat out
of it.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
And if you want education and credentials and alphabet suit
behind people's names, we've got that too. We are students
of this game and we never stop striving to learn
and know and be knowledgeable about, you know, the top
types of strategies that are out there to help people
either grow their money or make the most amount of
(21:45):
money from a cash flow perspective that they can. And
we'll talk about one of those at the very end,
and we're saving it for the very end, so you
keep listening. And so but let's let's go into some
of the questions. One of the big questions was, Okay, great,
you know you show people how to increase their income,
(22:07):
you know, what are the tax ramifications for that?
Speaker 3 (22:10):
Right? Yeah, And if it's an A, if it's in
an ERA, A qualified you know, retirement account, then it
doesn't it doesn't matter. Inside the account, it's all going
to be tax deferred. What matters is when you actually
pull it out of the account, then you're paying income
taxes on whatever portion you're you're pulling out, and the
income taxes you're going to pay is going to be
based off of the income tax bracket that you're in. Now,
(22:32):
you want to be cognizant because if you have a
year where you're going to be pulling more out than
other years, it could bump you up into the next
tax bracket. So you want to be cognizant to have
a conversation with your tax consultant to see if that
is going to impact you overall income and your tax
bracket and what you're paying a tax.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
And we can plan for it in your financial plan
as well, just as far as things like tax loss
harvesting and stuff like that.
Speaker 3 (22:57):
Which if it's a taxable account, then yeah, that's when
it matters. You know, when you're not in an IRA
or qualified account, then that's where you have to be
more cognizant of short term capital gains, long term capital gains,
how long you're holding positions, you know, dividend qualified dividends
or not, and those are going to be different taxations
based off of holding periods typically of the investments within
(23:19):
your portfolio.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
Yeah. So another big question was of course about our fees,
but then what is our communication? How often do we
meet with clients, how often do they receive things from
and we are not passive advisors, so many people. The
other thing that we see when they come, is they go.
We never hear from our person unless they're asking for
(23:43):
more money. And so that is so typical and sadly
the norm. If anything, people, you know, especially our clients,
we over communicate, We over meet and and many times
they've said, you know, I don't need to meet that often,
(24:03):
but bare minimum how much communication? How often are we
going to meet with people and update their you know,
financial plan.
Speaker 3 (24:14):
Or or just once once every ten years in their
ear minimum you want to meet once, you know, if
everything is honky dory, no life events or anything like that,
then at least once a year you want to touch base,
go over the go over the macro, the financial plan,
making sure that the portfolios in alignment with your overall
financial plan, your goals, your timeline, so on and so forth,
(24:36):
just to make sure you're on track. And everybody's different.
Some people have a lot more needs and a little
bit more complicated a financial balance seat and so that
requires more more meetings. Some you know, everything is fine
and they don't need as much, and once a year
is is great. I'd say on average it's two a year.
Some clients it's going to be every quarter. So it's
(24:57):
going to be four year, you know. And then we
have some clients they are a little bit more in
tuned and want to be a little bit more active
with Hey, this is going on the market or that,
and what's your thoughts on this or thoughts on that.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
Yeah, some clients we talk to weekly because they're always
the headlines of the news. Yeah, worried about those headlines.
And that's fine too, you know. And then the big question,
of course is always you know, what do you guys
charge how much commissions? And first of all, we're not
commission advisors. We are fiduciaries. That's the other big question.
(25:29):
Are you a fiduciary? And we get that over and
over again in every workshop, and yes, absolutely we are
fiduciaries and we do not work on a commission. And
more importantly, our average fee is about one percent. Some
are paying a little more, some are paying a little less.
It just depends on the size of the relationship and
(25:52):
you know what it is we're doing for you. But
on average, it's one percent. To be exact, it's one
point zero five percent is our average household fee. And
the beauty of it is is that we charge one
fourth of that, so basically point two five a quarter
(26:12):
of one percent after the end of every quarter, not
upfront like many free uh uh advanced companies advance fee,
but right now for the people that let's say, came
to our workshop and then they come in for a
one on one and then they decide to hire us,
more than likely we're not. We're doing everything. We're helping,
(26:35):
you know, with whatever paperwork's involved. If you're a Charles
Schwab advisor, there will be no paperwork because we're affiliated
with Charles Schwab. I mean, there'll be a you know,
that's our main custodian, so that would be very simple.
But you're not going to pay your first full quarter's
fee until July. So basically you get to see what
(26:56):
we're gonna do for you and and and create the financially,
create the financial plant, do all this work, and you're
not gonna have to pay a single cent for that
until July. And if things aren't what we said they
are by July, there's no long term commitments. It's not
like you bought an annuity on contractor and you can't
(27:19):
change your mind. So again that was probably the three
biggest questions.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
I want to make another point, you know, we didn't
touch on it now that I think about it. But
the other thing that's important in fees too, especially when
it's a management fee. You know one percent, half percent,
two percent, whatever the firms are charging, is is that
a flat Is that an actual rate or is it
a blended rate? Sometimes firms a lot or tiered. This
(27:47):
is this is pretty common amongst big firms, is what
they'll do as they say, yeah, a million dollars one percent,
but it comes in tiered buckets. So you know, from
zero to the first five hundred they'll charge you maybe
one and a half or one point six or whatever.
Then from five hundred to a million, you know they're
(28:08):
going to charge you another fee one point two five,
and then from a million to one point five you're
getting charged one percent. So you have to add up
and blend those three buckets or tranches, right, and that's
going to be your actual overall average fee. It's like,
we don't do that.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
Point yeah, what if you have a million bucks?
Speaker 3 (28:26):
If you have a million bucks, is one percent? Take
plenty and simple. We're not going to say, well, the
first five hundred is one point five, the second five
hundred is this, and so on and so.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
Forth, and our next break point is if you're at
two million or more, it's point seventy five, right, So
it's even across the board, it's even less. And again,
like you said, it's not tiered. That is the true
fee that you pay. So we're very fair, especially since
we are very active. Our communication is probably second to none.
(28:56):
Our meetings and the time we spend with each client
helping them achieve success and whatever success is to them
is like I said, probably second to none. And so
if this is starting to make some good sense to you,
and you're worried about this year and you know the
(29:18):
years to come, especially with everything that's going on, give
us a call for an absolutely no obligation, no pressure whatsoever,
consultation by calling nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Okay, here's what we're going to talk about
this last segment. First of all, I've got an exciting
(29:38):
announcement so our next event. So if you wanted to
attend this event, that was just fantastic and not just
in our opinion, but are our feedback forms opinion which
we do collect and we take very serious. Call us
to register for our next workshop, which is on April
(30:00):
thirtieth at the Old Spaghetti Factory on Sunrise in Roseville, California,
from six to seven thirty pm. Again, that's our next
workshop where we you know, open up the curtains, pull
back the covers, really dive into why the way we
(30:21):
do things for our clients is really second to none
and could benefit you. So call nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred Again that's April thirtieth, which
is a Wednesday, from six to seven thirty pm at
the Old Spaghetti Factory. Okay, before we let's end with
(30:41):
that juicy investment that we've been putting in clients accounts
and we have a new one that's coming out next week.
And so but let's go over You wanted to touch
upon some of the economic things, and so I never
did that, ye in any other segment.
Speaker 3 (30:59):
Right, Yeah, recession fears are surfacing again. The yield curve
inversion just happened again recently with between the ten year
treasury and the three month treasury, which is an indicator
that has been used and you look back in time
that has predicted recessions before recessions happened, and it was
(31:23):
already inverted that happened back in twenty twenty two, then
it uninverted and then now just reinverted. So what does
that mean. Are we going into recession? Are we not?
We are in a different environment and every recession, whenever
recession does happen, is different every time. But here's the
(31:43):
positive news. GDP growth in some of this indication is lagging,
indication may not be leading, or there can be a
combination of both. But GDB growth the other thing that
surfaces Atlanta Fed, g GDP now forecasts, and that's forecasting
a negative quarter and GDP and you get two of those,
(32:04):
and that's the definition of a recession. But they don't
take into context all of the economic indicator and data.
They all work a little bit differently. New York Fed,
Dallas Fed, Atlanta Fed. They taken they look at measurements
a little bit differently. New York Fed and Dallas Fed
when you look at their indicators doesn't show the same
(32:24):
negative context that Atlanta Fed. GDP now forecast or now
cast is what it's called. So GDP growth looks like
it's going to be positive. Jobs, job market, like John said,
still unemployment is at a rate that's very low. It's
not an alarming indicator for the Fed to take any interaction.
Consumer spending has slowed down, but still there is plenty
(32:47):
of demand out there, and that's a big culprit for
a recession because that is like sixty seventy percent of
our GDP is consumer spending. Inflation has been sticky, but
the most recent inflation data is out this week. The
CPI and PPI showed a little bit of slowing, so
that's positive. We see energy coming down a little bit,
(33:08):
oil oil coming down, which is great. We've seen interest rates,
not by via the Fed, but by the market has
been pushing them down. The tenure treasure was up to
four point eight percent not that long ago, and now
it dipped down. Yeah it's four point three now, but
it dipped down to just over four percent. So that
gave a little bit of relief to loans out there
that people borrow money. The worries out there is there
(33:31):
are still some uncertainties. Right. Is the inversion of the
YULD cur that just happened again? Is it? Is it
waving a red flag and giving us a warning? The
trade war? You know, what are the tariffs? You know?
How is this all going to pan out? Are we
going to come to the negotiation table sooner rather than later,
or is this going to drag on? That can have
an impact on the on the market, obviously in corporate profits.
(33:55):
And then you know institutional estimates. What are the institutions
saying out there? What's the probability recession? JP Morgan's putting
at a forty five percent probability recession, who knows if
they're right or not, Goldman Sachs twenty percent probability for recession, Moody's,
which is a credit rating agency, less than twenty percent.
A lot of times these forecasts change month to month,
(34:16):
quarter by quarter. I think things slowing down and the
market taking a little bit of a breather is good
and constructive for the markets. Now, if it gets too deep,
right and there's a chain reaction, then that can cause
other issues. But the run up that we've had in
the past couple of years, and especially some of these
names and the AI boom and all the euphoria, it
(34:37):
has to take a breather. It can't continue to run up.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
You know, it wouldn't be too much of a leap
to believe that, you know, some of the policies on
a national level are to put us into a slower
economic growth environment to actually get rates to go down.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Right, Yeah, we've talked about that.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
And so that obviously that would then be a stimulus
to skyrocket the economy from there. Yeah, so cutting out
all the dead weight in employment in the economy and
then you know, hopefully see some sort of change a
(35:23):
monetary policy on top of you know, the the environment
for credit coming down on its own, and then we
could really see a new start to you know, the
bull run that's been happening since twenty nineteen, since twenty ten,
and now start a new leg up. That's that's kind
(35:44):
of what I believe is going to happen, because if
there is a contraction GDP, I think it'll be short term.
I don't think it'll be multiple quarters in a row.
Companies earnings and profitability was just too good and continues
to be too good.
Speaker 3 (35:59):
We had that right. It's just a couple of years
ago we had a couple couple quarters that were negative
GDP and then they said, oh, well, that's well, that's
not we're not really in a recession. Because you gott
to look at the indicators. It used to be the
definition for recession, but it isn't anymore.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
Yeah, No, you're absolutely right. Okay, Despite all those things,
there is always great areas to put your money.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
All work for, areas of opportunity.
Speaker 2 (36:23):
Always and one of the ones that we just really
love is an alternative strategy that kind of not kind
of combines both a fixed component stocks and bold as
well as a variable component as well as a downside
protection component, a buffer if you will, So so three
(36:45):
for one, so it's a three for And you just
can't ignore things like this from companies like ours, where
these things are custom created, you know, through partners of
ours that are very big partners, and that we offer
to our clients. And what the heck am I talking about?
Speaker 3 (37:09):
No, I'm joking.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
So a structured note and really what that is and
does for a client. And again anything we talk about,
consult you know, your professionals on it to see if
it's right for you, or give us a call to
see if it's right for you. But as always, keep
in mind that one of the main principles that we
(37:34):
stress over and over is again is don't over bet
on anyone position. So if you go try to find
a firm like ours that offers these types of investments.
Don't put fifty percent of your money in it or
twenty five percent of your money. Keep it to less
than ten percent. We use a rule of thumb of
(37:54):
five percent, and that's a pretty good rule. But what
is a structured note, Juseppe? And how does it accomplish
those three things that I just mentioned?
Speaker 3 (38:03):
Yeah, it varies. There's different types, different sizes, and some
are more growth oriented, some are more cash flow and
income oriented. So this one is from Bank of America,
that is the issuer. We're excited because it fits within
some of our client's portfolios. I'm not sure if it'll
fit for you or not. But it's eighteen months, it's
(38:24):
on the shorter term. But the nice thing is it
has a juicy potential return, which is twelve point four
percent a year. That's higher than the average S and
P five hundred and your return.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
In any given decade quite fright.
Speaker 3 (38:40):
Yeah, But it has a thirty percent downside barrier, which
simply means that it's tied to a few different stock indices,
and if one of those stock indices goes down by
thirty percent or more than you know, a loser. Yeah,
it's a loser for that month because it has a
monthly observation, so every month it'll take a look at
the three indices, what the levels are in compared to
(39:01):
its initial value. So the nice thing is that while
we're in this poolback environment, the market you're going down fantastic, right,
and you get into something while the markets are down.
Now you have another thirty percent from that point moving forward.
So if there's a recovery in the market, you're just
putting yourself in a better position. If market continues to
pull back, at least you have that much more room
(39:22):
to go before you're not you know, realizing the potential.
But on a monthly basis, every month you have the
potential to earn just over one percent per month, and
then once it matures eighteen months from now, then you
get your principle back. As long as the worst performer
of those three indices that attracts is not down on
that specific maturity date thirty percent or more, right, then
(39:45):
you get your principal back. Plus you've collected that twelve
point four per year, and that's it. And the nice
thing is it provides it monthly, so it's additional cashlow,
especially for the retirees, if you want.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
More information on structured notes, or just want to come
in for a nose obligation consultation to see how an
investment like this would fit in your portfolio and help
you accomplish your growth and income goals. Make sure you
give the Wise Money guys a call by calling nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. You've been
(40:16):
listening to John scambering to Seppi Fisconti. Hope you enjoyed
the show and have a wonderful weekend.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
By all, have a great weekend. Talk to you next week.
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