April 10, 2025 • 42 mins
What should I do about my investment acounts with all this volatility in the market? Hosts John and Giuseppe have weathered the storm before. This week we have strategies to reduce risk and seek upside. Plus, asset classes, the European market, and alternative investments! The Wise Money Guys!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to the Wisemoney Guys Radio Show. I'm your co
host John Scambran. I'm here with my partner Josette Visconti,
and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize in helping
people who are retired are about to retire manage their money.
As always, if you have any questions or or would
like to meet for a no obligation consultation, you can
(00:36):
reach us at nine one six ninety six seven thirty
five hundred. This show is brought to you by One
Source Wealth Management SEC Licensed number three one nine zero
seven eight. For more information and disclosures, visit our website
at Wysemoneyguys dot com. That's Wysemoneyguys dot com. You can
(00:56):
also email us a question anytime at question at wismoneyguys
dot com in question at wisemoneyguys dot com. So a
lot to talk about today. To give you a little
snippet of what's on the agenda, you're going to want
to stay tuned for the whole show because we have
been really excited about one of the categories of the
(01:21):
real five or six categories of investments that you can
put your money in, especially when you're retired and looking
for something that pays better than a bank or pays
better than a money market typically would, so on and
so forth. So stay tuned for as much of the
show as you can, because we'll talk strategy, we'll talk
(01:45):
the category of investments we like, and then we'll even
describe and talk more specifically about a couple of them
that we think are just fantastic for people's portfolios. But
before we get to all of that, we have to
talk about the FED. And I don't know the FED
generally would be you know, pins and needles to wait
(02:09):
what he said or is gonna say, and then the
market would go, you know, bonkers. But really they're kind
of just did a holding pattern.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
Well, and I think that was the expectation, right, is
that they've been in a holding pattern. They don't expect
much more from the FED. I think more of the
emphasis is going to be and what was paid attention
to is more of the commentary and the Q and
A session after his speech and if he was still
leaning dubbish or if he was you know, more in
(02:39):
the tightening phase of things, and there's still you know,
based on the commentary and kind of the the takeaway
that I got from it is he kept saying, you know,
we're gonna wait basically, wait and see pattern, see what
data shows before lowering rates, before lowering rates, lowering rates,
so instead of saying saying high, you know, raising rates.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
And what's funny is the treasury, the ten year treasury
is actually down today.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
So yeah, so and the other thing, So that's the key.
The other thing was that not only not only being
kind of on the dover side saying lowering rates, but
then also that there is that fed put meaning that
they do have still they still have tools and would
intervene because people were starting to bring up questions on
(03:30):
you know, slower growth negative GDP, and that they would
still intervene should something take place where the markets and
the economy starts going negative and they can stimulate.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Yeah, let's kind of recap some of the things that
we've talked about over the last couple of weeks, and
we talked a lot about in our workshop and speaking
of workshop. Excited to announce our next one of the year,
which is in Roseville, California, on the thirtieth, I believe,
if that's a Wednesday, and it's from six to seven
thirty pm at the Old Spaghetti Factory. So if you're
(04:06):
retired or about to retire, or you just have you
know a significant amount of investments that you're concerned about
and not you know, doing as well this year, or
maybe you're not meeting your expectations, or you haven't even
just looked at a plan your plan, maybe you don't
even have a plan. How many times do we find
(04:27):
that people don't even have a plan. They're just approaching
investing with no roadmap, with really no objectives and no
understanding if they're going to run out of money, should
inflation or prices continue at the clip that they're at
right now, so on and so forth. So you'll definitely
want to, you know, call and get a seat at
(04:50):
the table early, because we do fill up. We usually
have way more people registered than we can handle, and
we start turning people away sadly. But again, that's at
the Old Spaghetti Factory on April thirtieth, which I believe
is Wednesday, if it's not, it's that last Wednesday. It is, yeah,
(05:13):
of April and it's from six to seven thirty pm
at the old spaghetti factory in Roseville called nine one,
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. So just kind
of circling back. I mean, let's go back several weeks.
We said at the beginning of the year, things might
(05:33):
be volatile. We said at the beginning of the year,
especially as we first saw the Trump trade, if you will,
you know, things spike up considerably. We were hitting new
records again. Well, no, you look at the you look
at the Dow, you look at the Nasdaq, and some
of their peaks this year were I believe in February.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
SMP had a peak, but the NASDAK the rustles.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Yeah, it wasn't a record, but they were very close.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
They came back, but yeah, not to the SMP. And
that's that's where you know, some of the peaks were
back in December. SMP had a peak in February, and
then since since then it's just been volatility and to
the downside almost nine percent, and then NASDAK into the
correction territory of ten percent or more. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Oh, if you look at the Nasdaq one hundred down
fifteen percent, you're today if you look at the Nasdaq
one hundred versus the Nasdaq composite, because of the Nasdaq
one hundred encompasses the top one hundred companies, so the
cap waiting will be skewed, you know, in the Nasdaq
one hundred versus the Nasdaq Composite. And so nevertheless, we
(06:43):
started saying, and I hope people are listening and staying
tuned for the whole show and or subscribing and finding
us on YouTube, because if you can't get all of
the show on the radio, you can find this show
on YouTube. We do record it so you could see
lovely faces and post it to YouTube. Generally, our Saturday
(07:06):
show usually hits YouTube what Sunday or Monday, right Monday,
usually at the latest. So pretty pertinent information for the
week that just passed and the week that's going forward.
But where I was going with that is we started saying,
look for volatility. Then we started saying, you know, S
and P's overvalued. You know, especially some of the you know, larger,
(07:30):
more popular, mainstream discussed stocks were potentially overvalued. And sure enough,
here we are where we've corrected in those prices. And
now where I'm going with this, you know you're starting
to see, you know, things be a much better value
and a much better time to get in. But again
(07:51):
giving you a little hint about things upcoming in the
show is talking about, you know, a sector a category
of investments that we just love because they're low correlation
to stocks, they're less volatile. Some of the measurements that
we look at, like beta, like correlation, like standard deviation,
(08:14):
all of these things are much you know, what's the word,
not superior, but a great way to.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Offset smooth out, yeah, smooth out the rides. And how
should you diversify? And some of the things that we
were talking about several weeks ago is trimming from some
of those winters, some of those high flyers right like
then videos and teslas and and super microcomputer if you
had them in your portfolios, because some of them went
up i mean healthy double digits, but then they also
(08:42):
have come down healthy double digits from their peak not
too long ago. So how how do you how do
you diversify? Do you just go into different stocks? And
so the alternative sector of what we've been talking about
and other asset classes that aren't correlated to the traditional
bond or stock can help smooth out the ride, but
(09:04):
not without giving you know, giving up return or giving
up yield and how to generate cash flow. And that's
kind of what we've been focusing on and talking about
and trying to include sleeves of those within client portfolios.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
So our clients are really enjoying, you know, a high
effective average yield overall when we put you and diversify
you based on whatever your risk tolerances, time horizon, goals
and objectives, whatever your financial plan uncovers, we use that
as a roadmap. And because of you know, our knowledge
(09:37):
and I should I guess touch upon our background. If
you're listening to us for the first time, we've been
doing this a very long time.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
I got in it.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Into this industry in the early nineties, Giuseppi, and I
love saying this. Got in the industry in two thousand
and eight. There wasn't much going on in two thousand
and eight.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Was there great year? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (09:59):
Great here? I mean two thousand and eight, nine and
ten was one of the centuries longest bear markets. And
being that there were only really since two or three
multi year bear markets in the last one hundred plus years.
That's when Giuseppe got in the industry. So he got
(10:20):
battle tested right from the get go, and that's crucial.
You know. We talked to an advisor this week. Great
guy having some you know, really good success, but he's
not experienced anything major. I mean twenty two, Yeah, was
a downturn, but it really wasn't a recession. It really
wasn't a major you know, bear market. Yes, it was
(10:42):
a correction and crash from a definition perspective, but still
unemployment was low, consumer confidence was high, consumer spending was high,
Government spending was high. So we just didn't see the goal.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
It wasn't to the magnitude of the OA crisis as
for sure.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
And that's what we always try to protect people from,
is not being and this is strategy, you know, really
number one. So actually we'll get into the strategies that
we think are fitting for this year. You're listening to
the wise money guys, John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner Je Viscontin, and we are certified portfolio managers
(11:22):
that specialize in custom actively active, actively active, or really
active portfolio management of people's portfolios. Now that doesn't mean,
we're traders, but what that means is, you know, we
just don't, you know, put you in something passive and
then forget about you. And we see that so often
(11:42):
as one of the things we can usually do.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
You know, what we find when we're talking to some
new new prospects and new clients, they'll have a Vanguard
account with like a few different funds.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Yeah or no. My favorite is when you have a
Vanguard account, a Schwab account, a Fidelity account, and maybe
a Merrill Lynch account out and you have funds in
all of those and then you know they've never changed.
In fact, we took on a client that we're going
to see soon and she I don't think her couple
of funds changed in probably a time yeah or more. Now.
(12:17):
Luckily it didn't hurt her, but had we not got
involved and started reducing her exposure to stocks, she would
be significantly down now. And as a widow, that's just
something you can't typically afford. But let's, you know, let's
talk about this because I'm reading your notes here and
(12:40):
what is global market divergence? Explain that and how that's
affecting the markets and potentially people's investments with.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
The uncertainty of the US markets right well, the whole
tariff kind of where that is all going to lie
and settle, and the recession word coming back up and
also becoming a potential threat. On the flip side, you
have China doing stimulus measures and Germany primarily but Europe
(13:11):
also kind of settling down and moving towards stimulus measures.
So you're seeing a push or a shift, right and
that's where the divergence comes in where investors are putting
money into international markets. Also, the valuations evaluations really for
a while, we've heard it time and time again, like
hit evaluations on the international markets are better than the
(13:33):
US markets. We hear it all in twenty twenty three
and twenty twenty four, right, especially when markets were high
and we're hitting all time highs basically week after week,
it seemed like evaluations were better, but it's just US
was just driving all the growth. Now it's flipped, right,
because we have the darlings, the AI Tesla leather down,
(13:54):
you know, from peak to troffic thirty percent fifty percent,
and it's dragging down the indseason. There's other stocks that
are going down as well, and so you're seeing some moneys.
You know, investment money is being moved over into the
international markets.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Yeah, you know, our specialty, even though that doesn't mean
that you don't have potential companies that have big business
outside of the US. But really, when't you say our
specialty is domestic fixed income, domestic stocks primarily domestic alternatives.
(14:29):
I mean, I get it, there's stocks in there that
you know. You know, honestly, the nice thing is we're
not married to anything. That's a nice thing.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
We don't have any contract or referral fee or any
you know, there's nothing that would control our environment pressure,
there's nothing, there's nothing to control our environment to have
a bias towards one or the other. The only thing
that I would say domestic versus international is we've heard
that story multiple times. You know, two thousand and eight,
(14:57):
It existed after two thousand and eight, I mean it
was for like a decade and looking at the valuation metrics,
but it's just domestic continue to drive the growth. So
even though international I think it's okay. I think it's
good to have some exposure in there, but I wouldn't
say to make a total shift exactly, because you're seeing
this diversion so.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
You might have a company that is like, for example,
you might have you know, an Apple that's based here,
but so much of its revenue is generated abroad. Or
you might even have on the chip side, a Taiwan
semiconductor that's based there but some of it so much
of its revenue comes from here. But we tend to
find most of the opportunity, especially on the fixed income side.
(15:38):
Right We're being exclusivestly domestic, and I'm actually proud of
that because I rather support you know, our companies from
an investment perspective than you know big guys who uh
you know, support mostly global international emerging markets. You may
have seen, you know, the categories or the sectors called that,
(15:59):
but but really, you know, you can find plenty of
opportunity for your portfolio and your retirement right here in
the good old fashioned US of A.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
Yeah, well, and what's changed, you know, what's going on
is I mean, we're a global market. So whether it's
US domestic or international or Europe or whatever, it's it's
a global market these days, and they all kind of
kind of work. But the important part is recognizing where
money flow is going, recognizing you know, trends recognizing these
(16:34):
shifts in the market so you can take advantage of
opportunities or taking taking an assessment of Hey, let's take
a look at our portfolio, not only asset classes, like
how much stock exposure do I have? How much bonds?
How much do I have alternatives or do I not?
You know, do I have some real estate exposure do
I not? And then is it all in one one?
(16:57):
You know, is it all in the US or is
it even further drilling down, is it all primarily technology?
Like maybe I have a basket of stocks, but are
they all in the technology sector? So how do you
further diversify your portfolio as the market is changing and
shifting and moving through time as it always does. So
that way you can change and navigate your portfolio and
(17:19):
making sure that it's lined up with your blueprint, lined
up with your overall financial plan, you know.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Shifting gears a little bit. I want to talk about,
you know, one of the new relationships we picked up yesterday,
and the reason being is so many times are clients,
which especially the ones about to retire, come to us
for analysis before they retire. So this particular client became
(17:47):
a client officially yesterday, but we met with them, you know,
one or two times about six months ago. Actually even
further than that, he went to a semi are then
we met for a one on one a couple of times.
After he got all the information for us to help
him really, you know, address will I be able to retire? Well,
(18:12):
I have enough money? Do I have enough assets and
potential income to maintain my station in life? And with
him the answer was absolutely yes, so after the fact,
so he decided to come back in when he retired now,
you know, at the end of this year, beginning of
at the end of last year, beginning of this year,
(18:36):
and enroll his money to us based on all the
leg where we did. And the reason why I bring
this up is because we didn't charge him a single
cent for any of the information and analysis we did.
And on top of that, to make our process even
more attractive as fiduciaries, which have all of our client's
(18:58):
best interest first versus our own, is because he's rolling
over you know, his retirement money and the likes now
he's not going to pay his first quarterly fee until July, right.
So not only did we do all this consultation work,
(19:20):
we met with the client multiple times.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
So we did charity.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
You know, I kind of wonder often why we're so reasonable,
and I just don't know that there's many people who
would do that. You know.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Yeah, they want to know, like, hey, am I going
to be gaining this account and getting paid for the
time that I'm putting into this. But we have a
vested interest in our clients, and I think what you're
explaining is exactly that, and not only that, but also
to make sure that we are a good fit and
then discovering and they have a good you know, general
understanding of what the relationship you know, is going to
(19:55):
look like, what the portfolio and the expectations that can
get from the portfolio and their investments and how their
money's going to be put to work and what they
can expect from that, and if everything, you know, melts
together very well, then that's something that we move forward
and then on board them.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
So if you're interested in absolutely, because I bet from
what we just described you got that we're not high
pressure people. As Gusseppi said, if we're a fit, you know, fantastic.
If we're not, you know, we're not going to hound you.
But if you would like a no obligation consultation, just
like the new client got in the beginning with absolutely
(20:37):
no pressure to see if you're on the right track
or if you're getting the type of service and value
out of what you're currently doing. Give us a call
at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Okay,
we're going to actually now dive into the alternative categories
and talk maybe a little more granular about some of
(20:59):
the opportunity he's there and how that may be a
fit in your portfolio. But before we do that, because
this kind of is a segue to investments to address volatility,
I mean, there's some big things obviously coming down the
pike here that could really make, you know, the stock
(21:20):
market just absolutely seesaw. I mean it could literally rock
it up four or five ten percent or rock it
down in my estimation, you know, another one to five percent.
But I don't think it will go down you know,
five ten percent more. That's my opinion only because what
will cause that is more of a at least economically on
(21:44):
GDP inflation data, interest rates is more lagging than what
the mar what the stock market will initially do as
a market. And so explain a little bit about what's
coming up and why that makes us really like the
alternative space.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
Yeah, so the market's already been volatile. We've hit we've
hit some correction territory in the S and P five
hundred and ASDAK especially which correction territory is, you know,
minus ten percent. And obviously there's been individual names that
have had you know, further right exactly the tesla. And
we've had a recent bounce from the bottom. And so
(22:23):
now there's some you know, chatter out there, have we
hit the bottom market going back up? I think it's
not quite done because we do have April second coming up,
which is the reciprocal tariffs. Now hard to predict, right
because Trump can change the change the goalpost or move
it around.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
You might do another thirty day pop exactly if these
countries like Canada, like Mexico, like the European Union come
to the table and say, okay, let's negotiate anyway, and that's.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
That's the positive. So as April second comes up, we
get closer and closer to that or on that day
when the reciprocal tariffs hit, it could either be one
of two things, right, either retaliation and we'll see those
nations that are getting imposed those tariffs a retaliatory response
where they say, oh, we're gonna you know, terrify even
(23:11):
more on this and that and the other thing, and
it's gonna you know, bring back to life. Some of
that volatility will probably have a little bit more downturn
in the market or the opposite, as we are closer,
hopefully they come to the negotiation table and say, okay,
how do we how do we lower the lower the
bar and maybe lower our tariffs and you can lower
your terffs.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Yeah. The other thing where we might see some either
positive or additional negative volatility is just on now the
very public and news driven ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Right at least that's a step in the right direction.
But if you actually put a true uh cease fire,
(23:52):
that I think could be positive for the stock market,
which continues to hate you know, the new US on
you know, for example, Israel now bombing Hamas again. That
that puts a puts a scare and puts uncertainty in
the markets where you start, you know, see sawing around. Now,
(24:14):
couple that with you know, a potential tariff war starting
on April second. You know that would also be very negative. However,
any good news like a ceasefire. But I guess kind
of a ceasefire on tariffs and that will be very
good news.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
So or if you decide or if Trump decides to
delay again, right, it's kicking the can down down the
down the road.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Kind of what a ceasefire would be temporarily.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Yeah. True.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yeah. So here's where we've been going and setting you
up to keep listening this whole time, is that there
are categories of investments that aren't as volatile based on
things like you know, a potential ceasefire or or or
what's going on with tariffs, because they the type of
(25:07):
investments they do are more interest rate sensitive, quite frankly,
especially private credit. So that is one of the alternative
spaces that we really like, private credit, private equity, structured notes.
I would say those are the three big categorical.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
Yeah, we have actually we have a debt, private debt, realists,
private restal estate, private real estate. Yeah, also private credit,
and then some structured investments and then the true, more
true alternative, which can be more hedge fund arbitrage type.
Those are all the different facets. Were the alternative investments
(25:50):
that we're sprinkling in and putting sleeves within client portfolios
because essentially what they have. And if we put this
in kind of a perspective, when you're looking at the
s P five hundred that has a standard deviation, and
standard deviation is just the higher the number, the more volatile,
the more wild the roller coaster ride's going to be.
And typically S and P five hundred ranges from like
(26:12):
fifteen to seventeen percent. Lately it's been higher than that,
it's been closer to like twenty percent standard deviation. The
vehicles and investments that we've been putting into client portfolios
to try and smooth out that ride have a standard
deviation between maybe two and four percent. Yeah, so much
much lower, yeah, much much lower than the overall stock market.
(26:34):
To give perspective as far as bonds, because bonds typically
have always been except for twenty twenty two, obviously, have
always been the more conservative allocation that goes into a
client's portfolio. And if we look at, you know, twenty
nineteen to end of twenty twenty four, and what the
standard deviation of bonds have been with all the ups
(26:55):
and downs of the market, that standard deviation has been
between like five and six percent for just UH bonds
across the board, So two to four percent standard deviation
is even lower than the average bond standard deviation. But
on the flip side, they generate some pretty attractive fields
and cash flow. I don't forget about the yield. Yeah,
(27:16):
and that and that is anywhere between. You know, I
would say seven percent as far as distribution rate on
the on the lower end all the way up.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
To twelve point four was the last most reason we did, right,
I mean, think of that for a second. If this
is something that you I mean imagine or don't imagine.
Let's say you're retired or you're imagining that you're about
to retire, and you're looking at now where interest rates
are for very you know, fixed guaranteed type investments like
(27:46):
treasuries or CDs, and you're going, well, great, those are
and we've we've looked at CD rates. One year CD
is around three you know, a five year CDs around
three point seventy five. That doesn't even keep up with inflation.
So if that's what you're factoring in, I mean great,
(28:07):
if you have excess capital in the tune of millions
and millions of dollars where it doesn't matter if you
erode the purchasing power of your principle because you have
more than you're ever going to spend. But like most people,
I would say, on average, have saved between you know,
a half a million and a million typically outside of
(28:30):
their their their home, outside of you know, they're there,
they're real assets outside of maybe maybe you're fortunate and
you well, lots of people are fortunate because they work
for a government entity at some level. So you might
still have a pension. But when you couple it all together,
whether you have a pension or not, whether you're going
(28:53):
to get soul security or not, and whatever assets real
and and and liquid you have, those are the things
that you're working with to determine can you maintain your
same spending station in retirement and can you project that
where it's going to last to ninety two or ninety
(29:14):
four years old? Is what we use for males and females.
And then what investments are you going to use, Like
what Jiuseppe and I have been talking about things that
have a low standard deviation, that things have a lower
correlation to stocks. I mean, the one you were just
alluding to has a beta of what point oh two?
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Point zero two?
Speaker 2 (29:38):
I mean point zero two.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
I mean that's that is so alpha beta, or you
might you might want to explain what beta means.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Okay, it's not, it's not. It's not previous to VHS tapes. No,
we look at things like standard deviation, like beta, some
of these typical measurements that anybody quite frankly can and
get on a particular position that they have by just
going on the internet. But really it's just how much
(30:07):
of a movement you'll see in a dollar of value
of that particular position, you know, up against or based
against the S and P five hundred right, or or
whatever benchmarket is. So, for example, if you have a
point oh two, I mean you're moving two cents when
(30:28):
other things are moving a dollar, and that that you
would say, well, yeah, but I want my thing to
go up by the dollar. But what you're avoiding is
your thing, your particularly when I say thing investment going
down by a dollar. Now, how are you making your money?
You're making your money on the distribution or the yield
that the particular investment pays. For example, this one that
(30:51):
we're talking about, which is a private real estate fund,
it is available on our main platform, and it's not
widely available on others our main platform. So and our
affiliation is with Charles Schwab by the way, so when
you're working with us, if you already have a Charles
Schwab account, it's very easy for you to change to us,
(31:14):
or if you're not familiar and have your accounts elsewhere,
it's very easy to change to us at Charles Schwab
as well. But my point is is that this isn't
available everywhere, and I've found that.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
And what's about Parstodian, what's the best part of it?
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Laid on me?
Speaker 3 (31:31):
Pays eight and a half?
Speaker 2 (31:32):
There you go. So I mean here you have a
low standard deviation okay, which means a smaller roller coaster
ride than typical stocks, bonds or bonds. A low beta
which means that the dollar swings the actual value, the
net asset value at the net asset value, our price
(31:53):
doesn't swing as much as your typical fund. In fact,
two cents versus a dollar. And the best part is
away higher annual interest, dividend distribution and yield. Then the
at what's the average s and P five hundred stock
pay three?
Speaker 3 (32:13):
No, not even I mean the S s P Y,
which is the ETF that you can invest tracks S
and P five hundred sent about one point two or
just under one point two percent year.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
But if you dove into the S and P five
hundred the actual companies, you could reasonably expect around three
percent that you could put together.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
You think there are yeah, but I mean a lot
of the popular names that that po pay nothing.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Here you go, the big pay stuff.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Yeah, pay next pay next to nothing. And we we
focus even on the individual stock side of trying to
have a overall average higher blended yield than the S
and P. I mean, just to give you example, Vanguard
et F and we've talked about this in our previous workshop.
VTV is the ticker symbol which is the Vanguard Value
(33:01):
Stock Index Fund, and that has more value oriented stocks
in there. What you give so you're going to find
a lot more dividend pairs in that index without ETF,
and that yield on that ETF is two point two.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
Yeah. But if you would like a no obligation consultation
with absolutely no pressure to see if you're on the
right track or if you're getting the type of service
and value out of what you're currently doing. Give us
a call at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty
five hundred. You're listening to the Wise Money Guys radio show.
(33:34):
I'm your co host John Scambran. I'm here with my
partner Juseep Visconti and Boyd. It's time fly when you're
having fun. So wow, time got away from us here.
But we still have some more good things to discuss,
especially if you like the things that we talk about
and you're wondering, especially if you just tuned in, can
you meet with us? Does it cost you anything to
(33:56):
get the information, to get more specifics, to get analysis
of your situation with absolutely no obligation. You can call
us at nine one six ninety six seven thirty five
hundred and get on our calendar for about a one
hour appointment or so I promise it will be good
use of your time. Or register for our upcoming workshop
(34:20):
where we show you. You know, I always like to say,
we pull back the curtains or pull back the covers,
open the curtains. We go through an actual portfolio that
we've created and what it's done. We give you specific
examples of investments that we like. We give you specific
examples of allocations that we like, so on and so forth.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Also there were also talking about just general markets, the economy,
kind of up to date, everything that's going on in
the world market, what to be concerned with, what we're thinking,
what we're concerned with, or what we're looking for, and
then diving down into the portfolios and how it can help.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
The retires part is full disclosure, you know, we don't.
We don't try to hide anything, meaning as far as
what exactly we do and what exactly our process is.
So if you're curious, you know, again, coming in for
a consultation or coming to the workshop is what I
(35:21):
would recommend, and I would do it soon, sooner rather
than later, just because there's some things that could be
potential headwinds and make your year, you know, even worse
if you haven't started off to having a great year
to begin with. And so called nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred the Workshop for Retirees, April thirtieth,
(35:47):
thank you, from six to seven thirty pm in Roseville
at the old Spaghetti Factory. So just to round out
this private equity or private rate that we were talking
about stand in debt, So just to recap, low standard deviation,
low beta, high dividend yield, and so that never means that.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Used to Here's another thing as far as availability, used
to be only available to institutions. Now recently it's been
available to retail clients, but still hard to find because
it's not available on your regular you know, big brand name.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
This this investment, their other piece of it is only
open to people that can invest a million dollars or more. So,
this particular fund of theirs is open to people that
don't have to have, you know, a very large income
or have to commit to a very large percentage. And
(36:50):
we can follow our process where we make it, you know,
a five percent position in your portfolio. And that's where
I was going is. Even though we're saying we love
the alternative space, keep in mind that it's just a
percentage of our client's overall portfolios. They still have stocks,
they still have bonds, they'll still have you know, things
(37:12):
like money market and then of course they'll have alternatives
in real estate positions. And so you know, we don't
fall in love, as Joseppi said earlier, with anyone position,
and we're certainly not going to fall in love with
this one. As long as all those things make it
really attractive, especially the yield, we're going to have clients
(37:34):
in it. But if any of those things should change,
we're going to immediately take clients out of it. And
that's the beauty of active portfolio management that so many
people don't do for themselves or are working with people
that do those sorts of things for them. So if
that sounds like you, if you're having to call your
(37:55):
your advisor or your firm, going hey, have you heard
of these things? Why don't I have them? Why do
aren't we changing or rebalance? You know, chances are you're
not with the right person, you're not with the right.
Speaker 3 (38:07):
Firm, or they don't have access to them at.
Speaker 2 (38:08):
All, which is another huge possibility. And you should absolutely
give us. So that's a lot of absolutely, but you.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
Know, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
You should absolutely give us a call. At nine one
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. That did start
to sound like I was going to say for a
free set again soon. I yeah, we were talking about earlier. No,
but this is serious. I mean, we hate when people
come in and they've lost a ton of money where
they've listened to us for a long time, they procrastinated.
(38:38):
They finally come in and they go, well, yeah, you know,
I wish I would have done it sooner.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
They or they have the wrong perspective or perception, right,
they don't know what they don't know, so they think
they've saved enough for retirement, but they've never put it
into a plan and stress test it to see, oh, exactly.
You know, we have a client and recently sold a
portion of their equity interests of their business, so had
(39:06):
a healthy seven figures come in and so naturally and
that was probably the biggest deposit that they've ever seen
or received personally, and so they thought automatically, yeah, we're
good for retirement. But after running all the numbers and
all of their spending goals for them their you know,
family and what's important to them to last, and you
(39:26):
include inflation and so on and so forth, wasn't as big
as they thought it was. The probability success wasn't as
high as we thought. So then we started moving some
numbers around and manipulating to get it to where it
needs to be. But it was. It was a great
exercise because what it does is it gives the client,
you know, perspective of oh, I had this image or
(39:50):
this expectation right of I'm fine, but then they started
looking at these nuances and say, oh h, I didn't
realize that, or oh yeah, healthcare is going to cost
me quite a bit if I'm going to retire at
fifty five instead of sixty five. And also it's a
good exercise for us on our on our end, because
then we have that communication and then we were now
(40:13):
put on the same page, right, and then we can
run with that as far as a plan and then
better curtel and customize the portfolio. How much stocks, how
much alternatives, how much bonds and so forth, how hard
their assets really need to work to get them from
point A to point B.
Speaker 2 (40:28):
Yeah, what I really like is that the majority of
our clients really grasp and understand what they're in, how
it fits, and why they're in it. And that's so
I guess, encouraging when you have that sort of relationship
where so many people again when they come and see us,
(40:48):
they have no idea what they have, right, they have
no idea that they're not truly diversified.
Speaker 3 (40:53):
Or they know what they have. But there's a difference. Right,
So another client they were invested in bonds before they
were with us. They're investing in bonds now that we're
with us. Put in a different way.
Speaker 2 (41:04):
Yeah, and there were bond funds before.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
Exactly, and so you know it took a couple times
of explaining, but now they're saying, oh, yeah, there is different.
The difference is is they know what it's doing, they
know there's a predictability, then they know the interest rate
they're getting paid, and they know how much. Principles come
back to them when ma, sure.
Speaker 2 (41:23):
Those things are all set, you know at the time
of purchase, versus a bond fund, which none of those
things are set. It's always open, and you know you
don't nothing is guaranteed, not the interest, not the principal value.
So big, big difference. Again, It all boils down that
if you don't have a solid let's go back to
(41:45):
the beginning, if you don't have a solid roadmap or
a financial plan, or if you have one and you
haven't looked at it in a while and re revised it,
you absolutely should. We said and months ago towards the
end of last year. Of course, many times in the
beginning of this year that this year was not going
(42:07):
to be easy. It wasn't going to be. Hey, oh,
I can throw a dart and pick a mutual fund
by via dart as my strategy, and that fund's going
to make me money, and so exactly right. So give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred, get on our calendar for a no
(42:27):
obligation consultation, or register for our upcoming workshop in Roseville
from six to seven thirty PM at the Old Spaghetti
Factory on April thirtieth. And as always, keep tuning in
to the Wise Money Guys radio show. I'm John Scambray
and Joseppie Vascani. Hope you have a wonderful weekend and
we'll talk to you again next week.
Speaker 3 (42:47):
Talk to you next week, all right,
The Wise Money Guys Radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to the Wisemoney Guys Radio Show. I'm your co
host John Scambran. I'm here with my partner Josette Visconti,
and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize in helping
people who are retired are about to retire manage their money.
As always, if you have any questions or or would
like to meet for a no obligation consultation, you can
(00:36):
reach us at nine one six ninety six seven thirty
five hundred. This show is brought to you by One
Source Wealth Management SEC Licensed number three one nine zero
seven eight. For more information and disclosures, visit our website
at Wysemoneyguys dot com. That's Wysemoneyguys dot com. You can
(00:56):
also email us a question anytime at question at wismoneyguys
dot com in question at wisemoneyguys dot com. So a
lot to talk about today. To give you a little
snippet of what's on the agenda, you're going to want
to stay tuned for the whole show because we have
been really excited about one of the categories of the
(01:21):
real five or six categories of investments that you can
put your money in, especially when you're retired and looking
for something that pays better than a bank or pays
better than a money market typically would, so on and
so forth. So stay tuned for as much of the
show as you can, because we'll talk strategy, we'll talk
(01:45):
the category of investments we like, and then we'll even
describe and talk more specifically about a couple of them
that we think are just fantastic for people's portfolios. But
before we get to all of that, we have to
talk about the FED. And I don't know the FED
generally would be you know, pins and needles to wait
(02:09):
what he said or is gonna say, and then the
market would go, you know, bonkers. But really they're kind
of just did a holding pattern.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
Well, and I think that was the expectation, right, is
that they've been in a holding pattern. They don't expect
much more from the FED. I think more of the
emphasis is going to be and what was paid attention
to is more of the commentary and the Q and
A session after his speech and if he was still
leaning dubbish or if he was you know, more in
(02:39):
the tightening phase of things, and there's still you know,
based on the commentary and kind of the the takeaway
that I got from it is he kept saying, you know,
we're gonna wait basically, wait and see pattern, see what
data shows before lowering rates, before lowering rates, lowering rates,
so instead of saying saying high, you know, raising rates.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
And what's funny is the treasury, the ten year treasury
is actually down today.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
So yeah, so and the other thing, So that's the key.
The other thing was that not only not only being
kind of on the dover side saying lowering rates, but
then also that there is that fed put meaning that
they do have still they still have tools and would
intervene because people were starting to bring up questions on
(03:30):
you know, slower growth negative GDP, and that they would
still intervene should something take place where the markets and
the economy starts going negative and they can stimulate.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Yeah, let's kind of recap some of the things that
we've talked about over the last couple of weeks, and
we talked a lot about in our workshop and speaking
of workshop. Excited to announce our next one of the year,
which is in Roseville, California, on the thirtieth, I believe,
if that's a Wednesday, and it's from six to seven
thirty pm at the Old Spaghetti Factory. So if you're
(04:06):
retired or about to retire, or you just have you
know a significant amount of investments that you're concerned about
and not you know, doing as well this year, or
maybe you're not meeting your expectations, or you haven't even
just looked at a plan your plan, maybe you don't
even have a plan. How many times do we find
(04:27):
that people don't even have a plan. They're just approaching
investing with no roadmap, with really no objectives and no
understanding if they're going to run out of money, should
inflation or prices continue at the clip that they're at
right now, so on and so forth. So you'll definitely
want to, you know, call and get a seat at
(04:50):
the table early, because we do fill up. We usually
have way more people registered than we can handle, and
we start turning people away sadly. But again, that's at
the Old Spaghetti Factory on April thirtieth, which I believe
is Wednesday, if it's not, it's that last Wednesday. It is, yeah,
(05:13):
of April and it's from six to seven thirty pm
at the old spaghetti factory in Roseville called nine one,
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. So just kind
of circling back. I mean, let's go back several weeks.
We said at the beginning of the year, things might
(05:33):
be volatile. We said at the beginning of the year,
especially as we first saw the Trump trade, if you will,
you know, things spike up considerably. We were hitting new
records again. Well, no, you look at the you look
at the Dow, you look at the Nasdaq, and some
of their peaks this year were I believe in February.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
SMP had a peak, but the NASDAK the rustles.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Yeah, it wasn't a record, but they were very close.
Speaker 3 (06:01):
They came back, but yeah, not to the SMP. And
that's that's where you know, some of the peaks were
back in December. SMP had a peak in February, and
then since since then it's just been volatility and to
the downside almost nine percent, and then NASDAK into the
correction territory of ten percent or more. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Oh, if you look at the Nasdaq one hundred down
fifteen percent, you're today if you look at the Nasdaq
one hundred versus the Nasdaq composite, because of the Nasdaq
one hundred encompasses the top one hundred companies, so the
cap waiting will be skewed, you know, in the Nasdaq
one hundred versus the Nasdaq Composite. And so nevertheless, we
(06:43):
started saying, and I hope people are listening and staying
tuned for the whole show and or subscribing and finding
us on YouTube, because if you can't get all of
the show on the radio, you can find this show
on YouTube. We do record it so you could see
lovely faces and post it to YouTube. Generally, our Saturday
(07:06):
show usually hits YouTube what Sunday or Monday, right Monday,
usually at the latest. So pretty pertinent information for the
week that just passed and the week that's going forward.
But where I was going with that is we started saying,
look for volatility. Then we started saying, you know, S
and P's overvalued. You know, especially some of the you know, larger,
(07:30):
more popular, mainstream discussed stocks were potentially overvalued. And sure enough,
here we are where we've corrected in those prices. And
now where I'm going with this, you know you're starting
to see, you know, things be a much better value
and a much better time to get in. But again
(07:51):
giving you a little hint about things upcoming in the
show is talking about, you know, a sector a category
of investments that we just love because they're low correlation
to stocks, they're less volatile. Some of the measurements that
we look at, like beta, like correlation, like standard deviation,
(08:14):
all of these things are much you know, what's the word,
not superior, but a great way to.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Offset smooth out, yeah, smooth out the rides. And how
should you diversify? And some of the things that we
were talking about several weeks ago is trimming from some
of those winters, some of those high flyers right like
then videos and teslas and and super microcomputer if you
had them in your portfolios, because some of them went
up i mean healthy double digits, but then they also
(08:42):
have come down healthy double digits from their peak not
too long ago. So how how do you how do
you diversify? Do you just go into different stocks? And
so the alternative sector of what we've been talking about
and other asset classes that aren't correlated to the traditional
bond or stock can help smooth out the ride, but
(09:04):
not without giving you know, giving up return or giving
up yield and how to generate cash flow. And that's
kind of what we've been focusing on and talking about
and trying to include sleeves of those within client portfolios.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
So our clients are really enjoying, you know, a high
effective average yield overall when we put you and diversify
you based on whatever your risk tolerances, time horizon, goals
and objectives, whatever your financial plan uncovers, we use that
as a roadmap. And because of you know, our knowledge
(09:37):
and I should I guess touch upon our background. If
you're listening to us for the first time, we've been
doing this a very long time.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
I got in it.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Into this industry in the early nineties, Giuseppi, and I
love saying this. Got in the industry in two thousand
and eight. There wasn't much going on in two thousand
and eight.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Was there great year? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (09:59):
Great here? I mean two thousand and eight, nine and
ten was one of the centuries longest bear markets. And
being that there were only really since two or three
multi year bear markets in the last one hundred plus years.
That's when Giuseppe got in the industry. So he got
(10:20):
battle tested right from the get go, and that's crucial.
You know. We talked to an advisor this week. Great
guy having some you know, really good success, but he's
not experienced anything major. I mean twenty two, Yeah, was
a downturn, but it really wasn't a recession. It really
wasn't a major you know, bear market. Yes, it was
(10:42):
a correction and crash from a definition perspective, but still
unemployment was low, consumer confidence was high, consumer spending was high,
Government spending was high. So we just didn't see the goal.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
It wasn't to the magnitude of the OA crisis as
for sure.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
And that's what we always try to protect people from,
is not being and this is strategy, you know, really
number one. So actually we'll get into the strategies that
we think are fitting for this year. You're listening to
the wise money guys, John Scambray and I'm here with
my partner Je Viscontin, and we are certified portfolio managers
(11:22):
that specialize in custom actively active, actively active, or really
active portfolio management of people's portfolios. Now that doesn't mean,
we're traders, but what that means is, you know, we
just don't, you know, put you in something passive and
then forget about you. And we see that so often
(11:42):
as one of the things we can usually do.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
You know, what we find when we're talking to some
new new prospects and new clients, they'll have a Vanguard
account with like a few different funds.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Yeah or no. My favorite is when you have a
Vanguard account, a Schwab account, a Fidelity account, and maybe
a Merrill Lynch account out and you have funds in
all of those and then you know they've never changed.
In fact, we took on a client that we're going
to see soon and she I don't think her couple
of funds changed in probably a time yeah or more. Now.
(12:17):
Luckily it didn't hurt her, but had we not got
involved and started reducing her exposure to stocks, she would
be significantly down now. And as a widow, that's just
something you can't typically afford. But let's, you know, let's
talk about this because I'm reading your notes here and
(12:40):
what is global market divergence? Explain that and how that's
affecting the markets and potentially people's investments with.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
The uncertainty of the US markets right well, the whole
tariff kind of where that is all going to lie
and settle, and the recession word coming back up and
also becoming a potential threat. On the flip side, you
have China doing stimulus measures and Germany primarily but Europe
(13:11):
also kind of settling down and moving towards stimulus measures.
So you're seeing a push or a shift, right and
that's where the divergence comes in where investors are putting
money into international markets. Also, the valuations evaluations really for
a while, we've heard it time and time again, like
hit evaluations on the international markets are better than the
(13:33):
US markets. We hear it all in twenty twenty three
and twenty twenty four, right, especially when markets were high
and we're hitting all time highs basically week after week,
it seemed like evaluations were better, but it's just US
was just driving all the growth. Now it's flipped, right,
because we have the darlings, the AI Tesla leather down,
(13:54):
you know, from peak to troffic thirty percent fifty percent,
and it's dragging down the indseason. There's other stocks that
are going down as well, and so you're seeing some moneys.
You know, investment money is being moved over into the
international markets.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Yeah, you know, our specialty, even though that doesn't mean
that you don't have potential companies that have big business
outside of the US. But really, when't you say our
specialty is domestic fixed income, domestic stocks primarily domestic alternatives.
(14:29):
I mean, I get it, there's stocks in there that
you know. You know, honestly, the nice thing is we're
not married to anything. That's a nice thing.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
We don't have any contract or referral fee or any
you know, there's nothing that would control our environment pressure,
there's nothing, there's nothing to control our environment to have
a bias towards one or the other. The only thing
that I would say domestic versus international is we've heard
that story multiple times. You know, two thousand and eight,
(14:57):
It existed after two thousand and eight, I mean it
was for like a decade and looking at the valuation metrics,
but it's just domestic continue to drive the growth. So
even though international I think it's okay. I think it's
good to have some exposure in there, but I wouldn't
say to make a total shift exactly, because you're seeing
this diversion so.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
You might have a company that is like, for example,
you might have you know, an Apple that's based here,
but so much of its revenue is generated abroad. Or
you might even have on the chip side, a Taiwan
semiconductor that's based there but some of it so much
of its revenue comes from here. But we tend to
find most of the opportunity, especially on the fixed income side.
(15:38):
Right We're being exclusivestly domestic, and I'm actually proud of
that because I rather support you know, our companies from
an investment perspective than you know big guys who uh
you know, support mostly global international emerging markets. You may
have seen, you know, the categories or the sectors called that,
(15:59):
but but really, you know, you can find plenty of
opportunity for your portfolio and your retirement right here in
the good old fashioned US of A.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
Yeah, well, and what's changed, you know, what's going on
is I mean, we're a global market. So whether it's
US domestic or international or Europe or whatever, it's it's
a global market these days, and they all kind of
kind of work. But the important part is recognizing where
money flow is going, recognizing you know, trends recognizing these
(16:34):
shifts in the market so you can take advantage of
opportunities or taking taking an assessment of Hey, let's take
a look at our portfolio, not only asset classes, like
how much stock exposure do I have? How much bonds?
How much do I have alternatives or do I not?
You know, do I have some real estate exposure do
I not? And then is it all in one one?
(16:57):
You know, is it all in the US or is
it even further drilling down, is it all primarily technology?
Like maybe I have a basket of stocks, but are
they all in the technology sector? So how do you
further diversify your portfolio as the market is changing and
shifting and moving through time as it always does. So
that way you can change and navigate your portfolio and
(17:19):
making sure that it's lined up with your blueprint, lined
up with your overall financial plan, you know.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Shifting gears a little bit. I want to talk about,
you know, one of the new relationships we picked up yesterday,
and the reason being is so many times are clients,
which especially the ones about to retire, come to us
for analysis before they retire. So this particular client became
(17:47):
a client officially yesterday, but we met with them, you know,
one or two times about six months ago. Actually even
further than that, he went to a semi are then
we met for a one on one a couple of times.
After he got all the information for us to help
him really, you know, address will I be able to retire? Well,
(18:12):
I have enough money? Do I have enough assets and
potential income to maintain my station in life? And with
him the answer was absolutely yes, so after the fact,
so he decided to come back in when he retired now,
you know, at the end of this year, beginning of
at the end of last year, beginning of this year,
(18:36):
and enroll his money to us based on all the
leg where we did. And the reason why I bring
this up is because we didn't charge him a single
cent for any of the information and analysis we did.
And on top of that, to make our process even
more attractive as fiduciaries, which have all of our client's
(18:58):
best interest first versus our own, is because he's rolling
over you know, his retirement money and the likes now
he's not going to pay his first quarterly fee until July, right.
So not only did we do all this consultation work,
(19:20):
we met with the client multiple times.
Speaker 3 (19:22):
So we did charity.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
You know, I kind of wonder often why we're so reasonable,
and I just don't know that there's many people who
would do that. You know.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
Yeah, they want to know, like, hey, am I going
to be gaining this account and getting paid for the
time that I'm putting into this. But we have a
vested interest in our clients, and I think what you're
explaining is exactly that, and not only that, but also
to make sure that we are a good fit and
then discovering and they have a good you know, general
understanding of what the relationship you know, is going to
(19:55):
look like, what the portfolio and the expectations that can
get from the portfolio and their investments and how their
money's going to be put to work and what they
can expect from that, and if everything, you know, melts
together very well, then that's something that we move forward
and then on board them.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
So if you're interested in absolutely, because I bet from
what we just described you got that we're not high
pressure people. As Gusseppi said, if we're a fit, you know, fantastic.
If we're not, you know, we're not going to hound you.
But if you would like a no obligation consultation, just
like the new client got in the beginning with absolutely
(20:37):
no pressure to see if you're on the right track
or if you're getting the type of service and value
out of what you're currently doing. Give us a call
at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Okay,
we're going to actually now dive into the alternative categories
and talk maybe a little more granular about some of
(20:59):
the opportunity he's there and how that may be a
fit in your portfolio. But before we do that, because
this kind of is a segue to investments to address volatility,
I mean, there's some big things obviously coming down the
pike here that could really make, you know, the stock
(21:20):
market just absolutely seesaw. I mean it could literally rock
it up four or five ten percent or rock it
down in my estimation, you know, another one to five percent.
But I don't think it will go down you know,
five ten percent more. That's my opinion only because what
will cause that is more of a at least economically on
(21:44):
GDP inflation data, interest rates is more lagging than what
the mar what the stock market will initially do as
a market. And so explain a little bit about what's
coming up and why that makes us really like the
alternative space.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
Yeah, so the market's already been volatile. We've hit we've
hit some correction territory in the S and P five
hundred and ASDAK especially which correction territory is, you know,
minus ten percent. And obviously there's been individual names that
have had you know, further right exactly the tesla. And
we've had a recent bounce from the bottom. And so
(22:23):
now there's some you know, chatter out there, have we
hit the bottom market going back up? I think it's
not quite done because we do have April second coming up,
which is the reciprocal tariffs. Now hard to predict, right
because Trump can change the change the goalpost or move
it around.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
You might do another thirty day pop exactly if these
countries like Canada, like Mexico, like the European Union come
to the table and say, okay, let's negotiate anyway, and that's.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
That's the positive. So as April second comes up, we
get closer and closer to that or on that day
when the reciprocal tariffs hit, it could either be one
of two things, right, either retaliation and we'll see those
nations that are getting imposed those tariffs a retaliatory response
where they say, oh, we're gonna you know, terrify even
(23:11):
more on this and that and the other thing, and
it's gonna you know, bring back to life. Some of
that volatility will probably have a little bit more downturn
in the market or the opposite, as we are closer,
hopefully they come to the negotiation table and say, okay,
how do we how do we lower the lower the
bar and maybe lower our tariffs and you can lower
your terffs.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Yeah. The other thing where we might see some either
positive or additional negative volatility is just on now the
very public and news driven ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
Right at least that's a step in the right direction.
But if you actually put a true uh cease fire,
(23:52):
that I think could be positive for the stock market,
which continues to hate you know, the new US on
you know, for example, Israel now bombing Hamas again. That
that puts a puts a scare and puts uncertainty in
the markets where you start, you know, see sawing around. Now,
(24:14):
couple that with you know, a potential tariff war starting
on April second. You know that would also be very negative. However,
any good news like a ceasefire. But I guess kind
of a ceasefire on tariffs and that will be very
good news.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
So or if you decide or if Trump decides to
delay again, right, it's kicking the can down down the
down the road.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Kind of what a ceasefire would be temporarily.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
Yeah. True.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yeah. So here's where we've been going and setting you
up to keep listening this whole time, is that there
are categories of investments that aren't as volatile based on
things like you know, a potential ceasefire or or or
what's going on with tariffs, because they the type of
(25:07):
investments they do are more interest rate sensitive, quite frankly,
especially private credit. So that is one of the alternative
spaces that we really like, private credit, private equity, structured notes.
I would say those are the three big categorical.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
Yeah, we have actually we have a debt, private debt, realists,
private restal estate, private real estate. Yeah, also private credit,
and then some structured investments and then the true, more
true alternative, which can be more hedge fund arbitrage type.
Those are all the different facets. Were the alternative investments
(25:50):
that we're sprinkling in and putting sleeves within client portfolios
because essentially what they have. And if we put this
in kind of a perspective, when you're looking at the
s P five hundred that has a standard deviation, and
standard deviation is just the higher the number, the more volatile,
the more wild the roller coaster ride's going to be.
And typically S and P five hundred ranges from like
(26:12):
fifteen to seventeen percent. Lately it's been higher than that,
it's been closer to like twenty percent standard deviation. The
vehicles and investments that we've been putting into client portfolios
to try and smooth out that ride have a standard
deviation between maybe two and four percent. Yeah, so much
much lower, yeah, much much lower than the overall stock market.
(26:34):
To give perspective as far as bonds, because bonds typically
have always been except for twenty twenty two, obviously, have
always been the more conservative allocation that goes into a
client's portfolio. And if we look at, you know, twenty
nineteen to end of twenty twenty four, and what the
standard deviation of bonds have been with all the ups
(26:55):
and downs of the market, that standard deviation has been
between like five and six percent for just UH bonds
across the board, So two to four percent standard deviation
is even lower than the average bond standard deviation. But
on the flip side, they generate some pretty attractive fields
and cash flow. I don't forget about the yield. Yeah,
(27:16):
and that and that is anywhere between. You know, I
would say seven percent as far as distribution rate on
the on the lower end all the way up.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
To twelve point four was the last most reason we did, right,
I mean, think of that for a second. If this
is something that you I mean imagine or don't imagine.
Let's say you're retired or you're imagining that you're about
to retire, and you're looking at now where interest rates
are for very you know, fixed guaranteed type investments like
(27:46):
treasuries or CDs, and you're going, well, great, those are
and we've we've looked at CD rates. One year CD
is around three you know, a five year CDs around
three point seventy five. That doesn't even keep up with inflation.
So if that's what you're factoring in, I mean great,
(28:07):
if you have excess capital in the tune of millions
and millions of dollars where it doesn't matter if you
erode the purchasing power of your principle because you have
more than you're ever going to spend. But like most people,
I would say, on average, have saved between you know,
a half a million and a million typically outside of
(28:30):
their their their home, outside of you know, they're there,
they're real assets outside of maybe maybe you're fortunate and
you well, lots of people are fortunate because they work
for a government entity at some level. So you might
still have a pension. But when you couple it all together,
whether you have a pension or not, whether you're going
(28:53):
to get soul security or not, and whatever assets real
and and and liquid you have, those are the things
that you're working with to determine can you maintain your
same spending station in retirement and can you project that
where it's going to last to ninety two or ninety
(29:14):
four years old? Is what we use for males and females.
And then what investments are you going to use, Like
what Jiuseppe and I have been talking about things that
have a low standard deviation, that things have a lower
correlation to stocks. I mean, the one you were just
alluding to has a beta of what point oh two?
Speaker 3 (29:37):
Point zero two?
Speaker 2 (29:38):
I mean point zero two.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
I mean that's that is so alpha beta, or you
might you might want to explain what beta means.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
Okay, it's not, it's not. It's not previous to VHS tapes. No,
we look at things like standard deviation, like beta, some
of these typical measurements that anybody quite frankly can and
get on a particular position that they have by just
going on the internet. But really it's just how much
(30:07):
of a movement you'll see in a dollar of value
of that particular position, you know, up against or based
against the S and P five hundred right, or or
whatever benchmarket is. So, for example, if you have a
point oh two, I mean you're moving two cents when
(30:28):
other things are moving a dollar, and that that you
would say, well, yeah, but I want my thing to
go up by the dollar. But what you're avoiding is
your thing, your particularly when I say thing investment going
down by a dollar. Now, how are you making your money?
You're making your money on the distribution or the yield
that the particular investment pays. For example, this one that
(30:51):
we're talking about, which is a private real estate fund,
it is available on our main platform, and it's not
widely available on others our main platform. So and our
affiliation is with Charles Schwab by the way, so when
you're working with us, if you already have a Charles
Schwab account, it's very easy for you to change to us,
(31:14):
or if you're not familiar and have your accounts elsewhere,
it's very easy to change to us at Charles Schwab
as well. But my point is is that this isn't
available everywhere, and I've found that.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
And what's about Parstodian, what's the best part of it?
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Laid on me?
Speaker 3 (31:31):
Pays eight and a half?
Speaker 2 (31:32):
There you go. So I mean here you have a
low standard deviation okay, which means a smaller roller coaster
ride than typical stocks, bonds or bonds. A low beta
which means that the dollar swings the actual value, the
net asset value at the net asset value, our price
(31:53):
doesn't swing as much as your typical fund. In fact,
two cents versus a dollar. And the best part is
away higher annual interest, dividend distribution and yield. Then the
at what's the average s and P five hundred stock
pay three?
Speaker 3 (32:13):
No, not even I mean the S s P Y,
which is the ETF that you can invest tracks S
and P five hundred sent about one point two or
just under one point two percent year.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
But if you dove into the S and P five
hundred the actual companies, you could reasonably expect around three
percent that you could put together.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
You think there are yeah, but I mean a lot
of the popular names that that po pay nothing.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Here you go, the big pay stuff.
Speaker 3 (32:38):
Yeah, pay next pay next to nothing. And we we
focus even on the individual stock side of trying to
have a overall average higher blended yield than the S
and P. I mean, just to give you example, Vanguard
et F and we've talked about this in our previous workshop.
VTV is the ticker symbol which is the Vanguard Value
(33:01):
Stock Index Fund, and that has more value oriented stocks
in there. What you give so you're going to find
a lot more dividend pairs in that index without ETF,
and that yield on that ETF is two point two.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
Yeah. But if you would like a no obligation consultation
with absolutely no pressure to see if you're on the
right track or if you're getting the type of service
and value out of what you're currently doing. Give us
a call at nine one six ninety six, seven thirty
five hundred. You're listening to the Wise Money Guys radio show.
(33:34):
I'm your co host John Scambran. I'm here with my
partner Juseep Visconti and Boyd. It's time fly when you're
having fun. So wow, time got away from us here.
But we still have some more good things to discuss,
especially if you like the things that we talk about
and you're wondering, especially if you just tuned in, can
you meet with us? Does it cost you anything to
(33:56):
get the information, to get more specifics, to get analysis
of your situation with absolutely no obligation. You can call
us at nine one six ninety six seven thirty five
hundred and get on our calendar for about a one
hour appointment or so I promise it will be good
use of your time. Or register for our upcoming workshop
(34:20):
where we show you. You know, I always like to say,
we pull back the curtains or pull back the covers,
open the curtains. We go through an actual portfolio that
we've created and what it's done. We give you specific
examples of investments that we like. We give you specific
examples of allocations that we like, so on and so forth.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Also there were also talking about just general markets, the economy,
kind of up to date, everything that's going on in
the world market, what to be concerned with, what we're thinking,
what we're concerned with, or what we're looking for, and
then diving down into the portfolios and how it can help.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
The retires part is full disclosure, you know, we don't.
We don't try to hide anything, meaning as far as
what exactly we do and what exactly our process is.
So if you're curious, you know, again, coming in for
a consultation or coming to the workshop is what I
(35:21):
would recommend, and I would do it soon, sooner rather
than later, just because there's some things that could be
potential headwinds and make your year, you know, even worse
if you haven't started off to having a great year
to begin with. And so called nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred the Workshop for Retirees, April thirtieth,
(35:47):
thank you, from six to seven thirty pm in Roseville
at the old Spaghetti Factory. So just to round out
this private equity or private rate that we were talking
about stand in debt, So just to recap, low standard deviation,
low beta, high dividend yield, and so that never means that.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Used to Here's another thing as far as availability, used
to be only available to institutions. Now recently it's been
available to retail clients, but still hard to find because
it's not available on your regular you know, big brand name.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
This this investment, their other piece of it is only
open to people that can invest a million dollars or more. So,
this particular fund of theirs is open to people that
don't have to have, you know, a very large income
or have to commit to a very large percentage. And
(36:50):
we can follow our process where we make it, you know,
a five percent position in your portfolio. And that's where
I was going is. Even though we're saying we love
the alternative space, keep in mind that it's just a
percentage of our client's overall portfolios. They still have stocks,
they still have bonds, they'll still have you know, things
(37:12):
like money market and then of course they'll have alternatives
in real estate positions. And so you know, we don't
fall in love, as Joseppi said earlier, with anyone position,
and we're certainly not going to fall in love with
this one. As long as all those things make it
really attractive, especially the yield, we're going to have clients
(37:34):
in it. But if any of those things should change,
we're going to immediately take clients out of it. And
that's the beauty of active portfolio management that so many
people don't do for themselves or are working with people
that do those sorts of things for them. So if
that sounds like you, if you're having to call your
(37:55):
your advisor or your firm, going hey, have you heard
of these things? Why don't I have them? Why do
aren't we changing or rebalance? You know, chances are you're
not with the right person, you're not with the right.
Speaker 3 (38:07):
Firm, or they don't have access to them at.
Speaker 2 (38:08):
All, which is another huge possibility. And you should absolutely
give us. So that's a lot of absolutely, but you.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
Know, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
You should absolutely give us a call. At nine one
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. That did start
to sound like I was going to say for a
free set again soon. I yeah, we were talking about earlier. No,
but this is serious. I mean, we hate when people
come in and they've lost a ton of money where
they've listened to us for a long time, they procrastinated.
(38:38):
They finally come in and they go, well, yeah, you know,
I wish I would have done it sooner.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
They or they have the wrong perspective or perception, right,
they don't know what they don't know, so they think
they've saved enough for retirement, but they've never put it
into a plan and stress test it to see, oh, exactly.
You know, we have a client and recently sold a
portion of their equity interests of their business, so had
(39:06):
a healthy seven figures come in and so naturally and
that was probably the biggest deposit that they've ever seen
or received personally, and so they thought automatically, yeah, we're
good for retirement. But after running all the numbers and
all of their spending goals for them their you know,
family and what's important to them to last, and you
(39:26):
include inflation and so on and so forth, wasn't as big
as they thought it was. The probability success wasn't as
high as we thought. So then we started moving some
numbers around and manipulating to get it to where it
needs to be. But it was. It was a great
exercise because what it does is it gives the client,
you know, perspective of oh, I had this image or
(39:50):
this expectation right of I'm fine, but then they started
looking at these nuances and say, oh h, I didn't
realize that, or oh yeah, healthcare is going to cost
me quite a bit if I'm going to retire at
fifty five instead of sixty five. And also it's a
good exercise for us on our on our end, because
then we have that communication and then we were now
(40:13):
put on the same page, right, and then we can
run with that as far as a plan and then
better curtel and customize the portfolio. How much stocks, how
much alternatives, how much bonds and so forth, how hard
their assets really need to work to get them from
point A to point B.
Speaker 2 (40:28):
Yeah, what I really like is that the majority of
our clients really grasp and understand what they're in, how
it fits, and why they're in it. And that's so
I guess, encouraging when you have that sort of relationship
where so many people again when they come and see us,
(40:48):
they have no idea what they have, right, they have
no idea that they're not truly diversified.
Speaker 3 (40:53):
Or they know what they have. But there's a difference. Right,
So another client they were invested in bonds before they
were with us. They're investing in bonds now that we're
with us. Put in a different way.
Speaker 2 (41:04):
Yeah, and there were bond funds before.
Speaker 3 (41:07):
Exactly, and so you know it took a couple times
of explaining, but now they're saying, oh, yeah, there is different.
The difference is is they know what it's doing, they
know there's a predictability, then they know the interest rate
they're getting paid, and they know how much. Principles come
back to them when ma, sure.
Speaker 2 (41:23):
Those things are all set, you know at the time
of purchase, versus a bond fund, which none of those
things are set. It's always open, and you know you
don't nothing is guaranteed, not the interest, not the principal value.
So big, big difference. Again, It all boils down that
if you don't have a solid let's go back to
(41:45):
the beginning, if you don't have a solid roadmap or
a financial plan, or if you have one and you
haven't looked at it in a while and re revised it,
you absolutely should. We said and months ago towards the
end of last year. Of course, many times in the
beginning of this year that this year was not going
(42:07):
to be easy. It wasn't going to be. Hey, oh,
I can throw a dart and pick a mutual fund
by via dart as my strategy, and that fund's going
to make me money, and so exactly right. So give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred, get on our calendar for a no
(42:27):
obligation consultation, or register for our upcoming workshop in Roseville
from six to seven thirty PM at the Old Spaghetti
Factory on April thirtieth. And as always, keep tuning in
to the Wise Money Guys radio show. I'm John Scambray
and Joseppie Vascani. Hope you have a wonderful weekend and
we'll talk to you again next week.
Speaker 3 (42:47):
Talk to you next week, all right,
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