September 30, 2025 • 43 mins
There are many roadmaps we can use to succeed. Host John Scambray takes us through his best strategies. Then, taking profit off the table, Tech and AI, three Golden Nuggets, and we announce our upcoming workshop Oct 15th. The Wise Money Guys.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host, John Scambra, and I'm here with
my PARTNERBA Wisconsin, and we're certified portfolio managers and we
specialize in helping people who are retired or about to
retire manage their money. Yes we do, Yes, we do.
As always. If you like our show and have questions,
or you want to come in for a no obligation
consultation or sign up for our October fifteenth free Retiree
(00:39):
Dinner Workshop, give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred Again nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. You can also visit
our website wisemoneyguys dot com for disclosures and important information
scroll down to the bottom of the page. And we
(00:59):
haven't thrown this out in a while. Our question email, Yah,
our question email and actually we'll check it, and we
do check it is question at wysmoneyguys dot com. So
if you'd like to send us an email and want
us to talk about something specifically on the show, you
can email us at question at wysmoneyguys dot com.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
So maybe if you have a question from something we
talked about on previous shows or this show, you said, Hey,
you guys talked about this and I'm not quite understanding
what's going on with it.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
Or what it means.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Yeah, or I just want more information, feel free. Yep.
Speaker 4 (01:36):
You can also visit us on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
You can just search at wise money Guys, or just
type in our names John Scambray and Just Happy Viscontin
or Scambray and Viscontin.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
It'll show up on YouTube. And our show is recorded life.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Yeah, and if you really want to see, you know,
how wonderfully great looking we are. You always say that
if you want to see how balding I am, go
to our YouTube channel. All right, But seriously, we've got
a big show, a lot to talk about. I hate
to start off with I told you so. It's not
(02:12):
a big I told you so, But I've been saying that,
you know, start trimming some profits. So we're going to
jump into obviously, like we always do, investment strategy current events,
just some of the headlines, and then always we talk
a lot specifically about different categories of investments and whether
(02:35):
we think you should be adding to them, trimming them,
or or just you know, not investing and them so
on and so forth. So a lot to talk about
this morning, but let's kick it off with some of
the current you know events that unfolded this week. Lots
of economic news on the inflation front, big news against
(02:56):
Amazon and Google, right, and just you know, uh, expectations
of of what's to come is kind of wishy washy,
right are we are? Are? Is our economy slowing or
is our economy growing? And the data is really should
there be.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
More FED cuts, Federate cuts or is it going to
be a one and done situation?
Speaker 2 (03:20):
So the two biggest headlines last week, you know, we're
again something. Yeah, I know, you always do that to me.
I think of Saturday as the next week, as the
previous week, jump business week, during the business week.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
When it's the weekend you wanted to slow down the
same week, you don't want to go jump in the
next week, and.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Well during Monday through Friday last week, right, because that's
all right, you you I forgot so.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
We had the important aspects was was the economic data,
because we had the Federate cut, we had some commentary
from from the Fed. They did a insurance or risk
management of cutting a quarter point. We discussed that last
week and last week's show, and then we've been monitoring
(04:12):
and the financial news market has been monitoring the ten
year yield, the tenuere Treasury bond and it's yield which
went down to basically four percent flat almost and looking
at the emotion and what that's been doing after the
Feds have cut rates, and it's actually been moving up,
so that's been impacting.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Mortgages and mortgage rates.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
They saw, you know, a little spike in mortgage activity
just previous to the Fed's cutting rates, but then that
slowed back down. And the misconception we talked about last
time was when Fed's cut fed the Federal Reserve cuts rates,
it doesn't mean that all rates across the border go down.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
We talked about that last week.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
But more importantly, it's okay, do they continue and do
they have the firepower and does the data support them
to continue to cut like they' vindicated maybe in what
the market's expecting, which is two more rate cuts this
year of a quarter point.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
I don't think they're going to happen myself.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Well, the reason data that's come out, it's not really
supporting it, right, because because GDP came out, So Q
two or the second quarter GDP came out and it
was three point eight percent, which that's a strong number.
That's a strong number. That's and not only is a
strong number, but it's above the forecast. Right, they were
estimating it to be three something. Well, no, three point three,
(05:35):
I think you're thinking of the previous quarter. So three
point three came in at three point eight initial jobless claims,
which the Fed cut rates and Jerome Powell talked about, well,
we focused more on the labor market, and so for
kind of risk mitigation, we're giving a quarter point cut
because the softening of the labor market. Well, initial jobless
(05:56):
claims came in and it was two hundred and eighteen thousand.
The forecast was two hundred and thirty three, so it
actually came in a little softer than the forecast. And
then we had core PCEE prices, which is basically just
what what you know consumers are paying for for for
goods and services excluding food and energy and that came
in higher than estimate that came in at two point
(06:18):
six percent versus two and a half. So they're in
this dichotomy right now of the battle between the labor
market and what that's doing and the you know, inflation
data and price stability and what that's doing.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
And you got it.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
And right now they're picking and choosing, like do they
just focus on one and cut rates because of that
one maybe softening, well the other one really isn't softening,
or do they wait till both of them come down?
And I would not want to be in the position,
but I think they could be maybe a one and
done for this year.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
And isn't it interesting? And we saw this last time
when if we go back to the previous year during
the election side goal, when Jerome Powell cut rates, that
rates actually went up. And I was just looking at
the ten year and the ten year we were pretty
much four four flat. It was like just four point
(07:13):
to one hundreds of a percent, so basically four percent,
and rates have actually interest rates have actually gone up.
The ten year is now just a couple of one
hundreds below four point two percent. So you know, the FOMC,
the Federal Reserve Board, the chairman decide to cut a
(07:34):
quarter and actually you get rates going up two tenths
of a percent.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
So well, I think that's important because you have, you know,
a no knock against the current administration and Trump and
he wants the Feds to just slash rates.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
This just goes to show you that they have only
so much control. And thank god.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
The big one, frankly, yeah, and the big, the big
right elephant in the room is the affordability. And you
know people can't afford houses and new homeown by because
in the streets are high. Well, they just cut rates
and it's ticking up. Which this ten year yield treasury,
as we talked about in the last radio show from
last week, it doesn't matter, and it didn't matter last
(08:17):
year when they cut one point. They cut it half
and then two quarter points last year, and rates skyrocketed
by a percent on the ten year treasure yield, and
therefore along did the barring rates for mortgages, car loans,
business loans, so on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
And you know, it's interesting because what you see is
the flow of capital coming out of the treasury market,
and that's just something that's that's hard to I don't
know how you control that as a central bank, because
let's face it, the real reason why the ten year
(08:55):
went up, you know, not a quarter like the cut
of FED funds, but two tenths of a percent, is
because when people start dumping, and when I say people, institutions, funds,
fund managers, portfolio managers like DUSEEPI and I, you know
your your price is going to go down for that
security or that sector of securities market, and the interest
(09:19):
rate's going to go up. So it kind of is
a self defeating purpose or effort to try to just
think that if I only cut FED funds a quarter, somehow,
that's going to trickle down into the treasury market, the
mortgage market, the credit cards market, the car loan market,
(09:39):
which is what really doesn't unless it's so substantial that
banks cut prime drastically. And if banks cut prime drastically,
then they'll lend to you know, big cap X spenders,
you know, at a much lower rate, and then you
might see that trickle down.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
The opposite the Fed's overcut, and it puts a signal
to the investment market and community of why are they
cutting this much? Do they see something that we don't
and should we be worried about something in the economy
of the market or are we going to be entering
recession and they're trying to really stimulate the economy, and
then that triggers a sell off on the market, which
(10:21):
then people will and investments will fly to safe, flight
to safety, which will go into treasuries, and then that
will drive the yield down. But it's too premature I
think at this point. And Feds have been behind the curveball,
you know, Trump Trump has been completely right about that
because that is what we've been seeing. I don't care
what side you're on. I don't care if you watch
TV or not. If you just look at the tenure yield,
(10:45):
the tenure treasure yield and what it's done these past
couple of years, and what the Feds have been doing,
have you know, raising or lowing interest rates? They're behind
the curve.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Yeah, and you know good news in the whole thing
is and bringing this home to what's that mean from
what does this conversation mean from an investment perspective? Is
I just and I'm not going to say which because
you got to call us or come in for a
no obligation consultation or come to our workshop on October
fifteenth and conquered to see the types of investments that
(11:18):
you could get or have in your portfolio through us.
But I just bought a utility bond for a client
ten year actually nine year matures in thirty four at
a coupon of five point eighty five and a yield
to call. The yield to call was the yield to
maturity was pretty close to the five point eight five
(11:38):
because it was just a couple of one hundreds over par,
just a teeny weeny premium, and the yield to call
was five point five to five, which is still, you know,
a great rate.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
So I think we should break that down a little
bit more in layman's term what that actually means.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Okay, a couple of things before we dive into explaining
in more simple terms what I was talking about when
I said, oh, I put this bond in a particular
client's account this morning. Is you know come to that
workshop I mentioned. It's October fifteenth, it's at the old
Spaghetti Factory. I promise it will be a good use
(12:16):
of your time. We get incredible feedback, and more importantly,
we always update our content to be extremely timely and
as accurate as we can get it, you know, for
that day, for that month, for this year, when it
comes to the things that we're showing you and so
(12:37):
you can sign up for that, and I suggest you
do soon because space does fill up. They're not gigantic
you know, restaurants or gigantic rooms. I mean it's usually
at about fifty people, so twenty five couples and we're
at capacity and we get there very fast. So called
(12:58):
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Again
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. It
will be at the old spaghetti factory in Conquered on
the fifteenth of October from six to seven thirty pm.
The other thing was the bondy, so break that down.
(13:19):
So we threw out terms like you know, par and premium,
to call, to call, yield, to maturity, cubon, you know,
when it comes most most people I think probably have
had or do have bond funds. It's amazing how many
people with wealth, you know, hundreds of thousands have not
(13:42):
had or millions do not have or have ever had
individual bonds where you can control, you know, the credit quality,
you can control the interest rate risk. You can control
the market risk, the timeline, the timeline, and more importantly
you control you know, did you underpay, pay a fair price,
(14:07):
overpay based on what you're going to get over the
term of the holding period. And anybody with hundreds of
thousands of dollars that is a moderate investor, where they're
going to have some of their money in stocks, some
of their money and alternatives, some of their money and
fixed income, in our opinion, should have a custom portfolio
(14:29):
that includes individual bonds.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
And when we say bonds, when we say fixed income,
fixed income.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Is also bonds. It's one of the same, just two
different tss. Just the overarching category of what corp other
things fall into fixed income that we've talked about over
the years, or or at least over the last over
this year. Certainly structured notes, some of the alternative investment
products like the private credit, you know, hedge fund, loan,
(15:00):
real estate, you know, things that fallow those alternative space
can be can fall under the fixed income category. Two
because there there points maybe objective.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
Some structured investments.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
Can because it's an income investment.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
Because the way they're structured is very similar to a bond.
But then the other alternatives would be purely alternative, and.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Actually, but there's income alternatives and there's growth alternatives, and
some are a combination of both, but both of.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Them, even the growth or the income they're they're both
structured similar to the bond in that you know what
you paid from. There's an investment amount that you know
what you paid from. There's a term, so there's a
maturity date on all of them, and then there's some
sort of metric of how often or the frequency that
it pays out that interest. Right in the structured a
note or or growth, it's going to be a potential,
(15:53):
whereas a bond is going to be guaranteed by the issuer.
And that's the nice thing of having individual bonds versus
the bond fund or an ETF bond fund is that
you it's all spelled out and you know that and
going into kind of Layman's terms that yield to call
the par the premium or whatever. The ideal is that
(16:14):
you want to get into a bond and pay par
or less par just means if a new brand new
let's say, for example, this utility company that that you
that you purchase right they issue bonds. Now a lot
of the times when we buy bonds for clients, it's
on the majority of them, not all of them, but
the majority of them, we're going to be on the
what's called the secondary market I meaning they're already out
(16:36):
there floating in the market, ready to be scooped up
or bought or sold by an investor or an investment
firm like ours or a major institutional investment firm like
Morgan Stanley or Merrilynch or somebody like that. But there's
also a new, newly issued bond. So if this utility
company initially what they did is they said, Okay, we're
going to issue whatever ten million dollars or twenty million
(16:58):
dollars worth of this bond, and we're going to put.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
It out there, and it's debt to the utility company
or the issuer, which could be a corporation or government body.
In this case, it's a utility company, a very large
utility comp so it's.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
Debt and then you on the other side, as the investor, right,
you're buying that debt from them, and in return for
holding that debt, just like a mortgage, you know, just
like a bank does with your mortgage, is you collect
the interest every year, and so when you buy that
and you own an individually, you know how much interest.
(17:32):
So in this sense you said, what five point eight
five percent, So every year, this year, next year, all
the way to twenty thirty four until I'm matures, you're
collecting five point eight five percent based off of the
original investment. That so, if you put ten thousand dollars
in Okay, and if it was a newly issued bond,
it would be selling for one thousand dollars per bond,
(17:53):
So if you bought ten of them, you'd have ten
thousand dollars worth of this utility company's bonds or debt
and every year get five point eight five percent, five
hundred and eighty five dollars of interest per year, doesn't
matter what the market's doing, what the interest rate market's doing,
the inflation, what the Federal Reserve is doing, whether they're
cutting rates, raising rates, so on and so forth, every
(18:14):
year getting five hundred and eighty five dollars of interest.
So it's very spelled out now that what the variable
is is you have a market value, and when you
look at your statement on a daily basis or online,
the market value of that bond is going to fluctuate
up and down, and that's going to be dependent on
what the Federal Reserve is doing, what the market's doing,
(18:35):
inflationary economic indicators that are coming in, so on and
so forth. You don't really get concerned with that unless
for some sort of reason you decide, Hey, I'm going
to sell this bond before it matures because I want
to buy something, or whatever the kiss may be. Sometimes
we sell bonds prematurely, either because people need the cash
(18:56):
or it's because interest rates have come down, and that's
a big catalyst for the market value of those bonds
to go up. And now you've now you've had a
capital appreciation of that bomb, plus you've collected whatever is And.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
A lot of times the folks that that are clients
of ours or become clients of ours, they've had bond funds,
as I've said, and they've never had individual bonds, but
then they've had say CDs, often they've had CDs. A
CD really works, really works the same way. It really
is just a debt or obligation of that bank. And
(19:31):
we like bank bonds. Bank bonds have paid some great
rates to you know, our clients. Uh this year, so
that the Deutsche bank bond is still high fives and
so on and so forth. I saw that again this morning,
but we were getting them at six, which which was great,
you know, just a few months ago. But the point
(19:53):
is is that it really is similar from a risk
perspective and a and a and a and a risk tolerance.
So if you deem yourself conservative and and you're looking
to where you can get the highest rate and still
be conservative at the same time, and you have hundreds
(20:15):
of thousands of dollars, that's where whether it's if you
have high income where municipal individual bonds come in, if
you have a little more tolerance for you know, maybe
in the open market some price minor price fluctuations as
this interest rate game, you know, uh, takes place than
(20:35):
than corporate bonds certainly, or a placket, yeah, or you're
not in a high tax bracket. So you know, you
definitely want to give us a call, because there's no
reason to be earning two or three or four percent
on your money because you're afraid of the stock market.
(20:55):
That's the big thing. There's so much more to the
invent SMI world and ways to make money. Josefi mentioned
structured notes, which we do go into at our workshop
and show you how and why a structured note and
what sort of risk mitigation features it has to still
(21:17):
get you stock like you know, returns and so on
and so forth, so without risk, complete just stock market risk.
So point is is you definitely want to call us
for a no obligation consultation. I mean again, if you're
just earning two three four percent on your money and
you're worried about fees and you're worried about return and
(21:39):
you're worried about risk, we'll take the time to sit
down with you and show you how we can potentially
enhance and increase your returns over what you're doing, and
a lot of times actually reducing people's risks. They come
in with portfolios of bond funds or stock funds and
(22:00):
they have two hundred thousand, five hundred thousand a million
dollars or more, and we actually reduce their exposure but
yet increase their dividends and interest rates. So give us
a call at nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Do that to get on our calendar for
a no obligation consultation and a free retirement plan analysis,
(22:23):
or come to our workshop on October fifteenth from six
to seven thirty pm in Conquered at the Old Spaghetti
Factory and again a you can go to our website
wysmoeyguys dot com and find all kinds of great information
through our website, plus a chat feature, plus a contact
(22:45):
or or or or sign up for a no obligation
consultation or our or our seminars. Through our website, you
can watch us. If you caught some of the show
and he went, oh, I want to I want to
learn more about that. You can see us again doing
this and putting out this information on our YouTube channel
by searching our names or wise money Guys. And then
(23:08):
as always you can call us or you know, reach
out through our question email which is question at wismoneyguys
dot com. And and finally the number once again nine
one seven thirty five hundred. So we mentioned the Amazon
and Google thing, but the Amazon, I mean this, this
is just so laughable. So Amazon gets fined what the
(23:32):
largest fine ever by the f f FPC Federal Trade Commission,
and and break that down a little bit because it's
just yeah, so from I just money grab Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23:42):
Some fraudulent I guess like auto subscription type thing. I
don't read too much into it exactly what it was,
but I guess there was consumers that got auto subscribed
or auto renewed for the Amazon Prime, so they got
fined two point five most subscriptions.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
This has work auto.
Speaker 4 (24:01):
Maybe it wasn't.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Maybe anybody said I don't want to be auto renewed,
and they auto renewed anymore.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
There was no consent or there wasn't notification. I mean,
this happens all the time.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
I mean I ordered, well, actually, my cousin, this is
a side side store of my cousin.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Everybody is your cousin when you're Italian.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Yeah, the way we're talking about we're talking about my
my cousin ordered this uh pill, like this bottle of pills.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
So it's supposed to like clean out. There's like this
new I don't know if it's a.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Trend or just unknown, but like probiotic no, no, this
it's there's all this information. There's also information that we
have parasites. Right, you would think that you would have
to be more concerned to that in federal countries, but
here in the United States, we actually have parasites.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Get parasites from sushi, and undercook meats and why do
the ginger in the sabi? By the way, you're going
to learn a lot on this show.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
That doesn't cut it, though. So then there's these other
these other like ivermectin is one that you can take.
Then there's a fen bendasol, and then there's other things.
I'm not a doctor.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
The antibody thing, yeah, isn't that what they were prescribing for.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
Well, it's actually a malaria drug originally malaria, but they
found that you take that and it helps like with
parasitic problems with your gut.
Speaker 4 (25:23):
Anyway, so he got this.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
My point was there's a point.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
He ordered this bottle, looked at great advertising, so and
so forth. You bought it.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
He started taking it, and I don't know if it
was legit or if it was a police bowl effect,
but you don't have this chat. I have this chat
with my cousins and some friends, and he's like pitching
it to us and oh, my gosh, and I feel
better and no, I don't have the blow, you know,
my my my gut feels much better and blah blah blah.
So he convinces me because my other cousin was talking
(25:53):
about this and he's in the fitness industry, and we
thought it.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
Was the same thing that was going on or the
same same.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
Vitamins or supplements that he got last year that he
did for his family and helped with his gut. So
I ordered it, but then I think it was ten
days into it. He goes back on the chat and says,
don't buy this. It's a scam. And so I'm texting
him back. Why I just ordered it? You know, he
just sold me on it. You thought you're feeling better,
he says, because I found three other charges on my
(26:23):
credit card and their auto is it's like they enrolled
me in an auto subscription to just get a renewed refill,
you know, every so often, he says.
Speaker 4 (26:33):
But they've already charged me three more times.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
But that really sounds like more of a security Internet
security issue than an Amazon. But it was directly ordered
through through that. But maybe again, is that fraud or
or whatever they were by the company Amazon versus somebody
gideing the Amazon information?
Speaker 3 (26:57):
Yeah, well yeah, because why is somebody gonna scam me
and say, oh, do you ordered three more bottles with
the supplement directly from the supplement company or same thing
with Amazon, like they're not benefiting.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
I've remected and actually I just looked up. I mean
it's made by mirk and and merk is probably at
a price, a good entry point price. In fact, I
think it is. Well I remec and the problem this
is generic and it's very cheap. Yeah. Well again I'm
just looking, going, how do we tie this into you know,
no investments?
Speaker 4 (27:26):
Well, well, I was trying.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
I was talking about parasites and your guy.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Yeah, so I was.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
I was tying it into Amazon, and like what sometimes
happens with these companies, right when you say, oh, I
want to subscribe to your service or your product, and
then they just.
Speaker 4 (27:40):
Automatically put you on.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
So that's that's what they're getting fined for two and
a half billion and a half billion dollars. And here's
what's funny. Much goes to the government as just a hey,
thank you and we'll just pend us out to our friends.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Penalty fee one billion goes to goes towards civil penalty,
goes to towards civil penalty. One and a half billion
dollars goes back to the consumers that were you know,
you know, had a problem with it.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
I don't know if anybody. And then we looked at that.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
Yeah, go ahead, We looked up so we said, well,
how many how many Amazon users subscribers, subscribers are there
in the US?
Speaker 4 (28:15):
Yeah right, And it was I just forgot two hundred
and fifty five.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Million, three hundred and nine millillion, So basically each subscriber
in this if it was, we'll get five bucks.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
If it was, if it was spread out that why
I haven't even I haven't even paid attention to mine.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
It's like all these class action suits where you know
it'll be you know, so like remember the tobacco ones
that barely did anything to dibacco the copy. In fact,
the Reynolds and the Altrias and the Philip Morrises of
the world, or probably some of the most consistent dividend
pain increase their dividends every year for decade type stocks
(28:54):
along with alcohol stocks that that you can invest in.
But that's neither here nor there. It's just class action
suits happen in the attorneys and the regulator bodies get
all this money and then the people who actually deserve
the money get like nothing. They get Oh you fill out,
sign into this class action suit and get your forty
(29:16):
two dollars of the forty six million that was just aborted.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
I mean, it's well in in a corporation sense, and unfortunately,
I mean this is kind of the the negative view
of it is the corporation of the company that's that
that's doing this. Sometimes they let things, they can let
things slip through the cracks, because then they do a
cost benefit analysis and say, if we end up doing
a auto subscription or like cigarette company, you know cigarette companies,
(29:46):
tobacco companies, and we know it causes harm, or like Monsanto,
same thing.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
They've made billions and billions and billions.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Of dollars already and they know, okay, there might be
a lawsuit coming down at some point in time because
either it's impacting somebody or a group of people's health
and then we get sued or whatever. But then, for example,
like Amazon, two and a half billion dollars dropping the bucket.
It's dropping the bucket, and they've made and how many
billions did they make from the mistake, So if they
(30:16):
made twenty billion, yeah, and they have to two and
a half and they you know, they have to give
up a little good business.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
It's good math. But the stock price has cost them
a lot more than that. I mean, if if you
look at the last five days, Amazon's dropped over six percent,
and if you take that from a market cap perspective,
now you're hurting them because that could literally be you know,
a billion dollars. And then I'm not doing the math right.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
Except for except for when you and I go home today,
I guarantee you we're gonna have some Amazon packages still
over front.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
It's just so funny. You know another one that's funny.
Speaker 3 (30:50):
Now I'm saying it's I'm not saying it's right. It's
just unfortunately, this is how how things work in the
world with companies. But it is good to pay attention
to if the if the lawsuit or something that's being
brought to companies large enough, and then okay, how hard
is it going to hit them market cap wise and
stock if you own the stock right and is it
is it gonna last or is it gonna be temporary
(31:11):
or it could be a buying opportunity.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
And to really bring it home again, how does this
come back to why we're the wise bunny guys and
how this impacts your investment dollars? Is we've been saying
where we've talked about the stock market potentially being in
a bubble. Here we've talked about the overvaluation UH and
the high multiples of the average S and P five
(31:35):
hundred company being you know historically you know, too high,
way above average, and even you know, back to the
the Internet bubble or or the pre financial crisis bubble
and so on and so forth. And sure enough we're
seeing you know, stocks this this week because you know,
(31:56):
Saturday is still this week sell off, you know, three
four days in a row. And so why you should listen,
why you should come into a consultation, Because we started
trimming stock, increasing cash increasing, fixed income, increasing alternatives, why
(32:17):
things were still at records. You know, it's so important
to not get caught up in the perfect tops or
the perfect bottoms. And yet people who manage the money themselves,
or you know, sadly advisors who get too cocky, think
they're gonna just know, you know, when as I said,
(32:40):
the exact top things, it doesn't matter. You want to
add to positions that you like that makes sense. You know,
somewhere after you know, the price, the multiple, the valuations,
the technicals gets reasonable. That's a great word. And then
you want to get out when you've made a lot
(33:00):
of money. So I I've been trinning inn RG, the
utility company. That's been a great growth growth story. It's
a lot of movie. I mean, most of our clients
are up three four, five hundred, even as high as
six hundred percent just on this one position. I still
like it. We still like it. It made a lot
(33:21):
of money in a in our models, and we still
have a healthy dose of it, but we also sold
a healthy dose of it and then redeployed that into
other things. If you're not getting that, you know through
your current advisor or the way you do things, you
definitely want to give us a call at nine one
(33:42):
six nine six seven thirty five hundred. And I want
to finish out this this weekend show on something that's
just crucial, so important to not get caught up in.
And I can't tell you how many times we've in
our reviews because we sit down with our clients regularly,
at least twice a year, sometimes more than four times.
(34:06):
It just depends on you know, what type of client,
what type of portfolio, what your needs are. But the
one thing that almost all of our clients have in
common is that we approach their making their portfolios and
managing their money based on a financial planning process. And
(34:28):
so many times, how many times you know, do we
do we go back to the financial plan? And this
seems to only happen in years where you're going to
see the S and P, you know, do fifteen, twenty,
twenty five percent, which isn't often.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
It's been recent years, right, Just how many in that
since nineteen ninety two, how many years would you say
you've had like fifteen to twenty percent annual return?
Speaker 4 (34:55):
Analyze return?
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Hardly ever, I mean the average is nine that late nineties, yeah, right,
late late late nineteen twenty thirteen, phenomenal year. Yep, a
little bit, you know, or well actually after the market
had really sold off in two thousand and eight. Nine
twenty ten was a pretty good year.
Speaker 3 (35:13):
But it was.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Exactly But I'm just saying that's but that's a great perspective.
The fact of the matter is the market averages about
nine percent per year going back one hundred years, decades
and decades. Yet when we have these years where you
know the S and P is going to return just
call it twenty percent, all of a sudden, people want
(35:35):
to abandon their plans. They forget about being conservative moderate,
They forget that they only need you know, let's say
their minimum return to objective, which is the main financial
thing that planning does for us. Say, I need this
sort of return each year net a fees above inflation
to accomplish, you know, my goals and maintain my station
(35:58):
in life for the rest of my life. All of
a sudden, that goes out the window. And I caution
you everybody. You know, greed is a good thing, right,
you want to invest to make money, but getting overly
greedy because we're having a couple of.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
Good years and started getting reckless.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
And getting reckless, especially when you're doing things yourself. I mean,
we've had clients that go you know, they come in
and they want to redo everything, and we go back
to their plan and we show them that, hey, you know,
you only need to make a five or six percent return,
and you're at ten percent, you're to date, eight percent,
you're to date. You might end up net eleven, twelve,
(36:37):
thirteen percent. We don't know. We don't have a crystal ball.
But the point is if you go back and were
your your way above what you need to have and
you're in the the nice to have, and so don't
ruin that. But getting over lee greedy, double it and
wanting to blow up your plan because your plan is
(36:59):
for five I have ten twenty thirty years, and unless
there's some major shift in inflation or the economy or
your something happens in your life that causes you to
have to drastically redo your plan, that's the only time
you want to drastically redo your portfolio. Don't get caught
(37:21):
up in the hype of the few companies that have
gone up thirty forty fifty, one hundred percent.
Speaker 4 (37:27):
It's a nice year. I'll give an analogy, and I've
given this analogy before. The plan is really the blueprint.
It's the roadmap. We've used different terms.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
But taking a house and say you have a million
dollars and you said, here, John Giuseppe, I have a
million bucks. I have a plot of land over there
I already bought, and I want you to build me
a house right now. We're not gonna just take a
million bucks and just say okay, you want us to
build you a house.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
Great, and we get to going to home depot and
buying a bunch of lumber.
Speaker 4 (37:55):
Yep, we're and we're building a house.
Speaker 3 (37:57):
No, we spend time talking about what kind of house
you want, is it one story, two story, how many bedrooms,
how many bathrooms?
Speaker 2 (38:04):
Is it?
Speaker 3 (38:04):
You know, traditional styles, a modern style, what sort of
features you want? You know, what what do you want
your kitchen and blah blah blah blah. Right, all the details,
and that's how you design the blueprint.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
Now, let's say you move into a neighborhood and you said, yep,
it's just me and my husband, we're retired. We like
to you know, we had a two story. We don't
want any more stairs. We want to want to story
you and your husband. Oh yeah, that's weird, right, could
be the other way out? Yeah, yeah, good, good catch, Sarah. No,
(38:39):
that's that's not the that's not the.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
Not that there's anything wrong with it.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
Yeah, but you decide that you and your spouse. Okay,
how about that. You decide that you and your spouse
decide that, hey, we want we don't want stairs.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
We have a two story. Now we're building our retirement home.
We got the pluddle and we want a one story.
But then in the neighborhood that you're in, everybody is
building a two story. And so now you already have
the blueprint, you got the money, you know what you want,
you know what's gonna benefit you free needs. And then
all of a sudden, in the middle of building your
house said, you know what, we want a two story.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
I want to go big.
Speaker 4 (39:17):
We want a two story.
Speaker 3 (39:19):
We want a balcony in the back, we want a pool,
we want a water slide, we want all these different things.
You're like, whoa, whoa, why do you want to look
at everybody else. Everybody's getting these contractors and they're building
these two stories with water slides and pools and right roof.
That's kind of that's kind of the same thing. When
we have a plan and we charted out it's for longevity.
(39:39):
It's not for this year, it's not for the quarter,
it's not for the next six months. It's for longevity.
It's what do you need and what does it need
to do for you for the next twenty or thirty
years in retirement or between now and when you retire,
to get you to retire, to be able to retire,
what do you need your assets to do for you?
Speaker 4 (39:56):
And that's how much risk you want to take.
Speaker 3 (39:58):
And there's gonna be some years, like John say, maybe
you need a seven percent, but right now we're at
ten percent so far, and maybe you finish a year
at twelve percent, Great, we'll take you.
Speaker 2 (40:06):
Yeah, you're going to be away with your plan to
try to go for that every year when you only
need the seven.
Speaker 3 (40:12):
Right, you don't want to say, Okay, let's press the
gas even more and maybe we can get to fifteen
or twenty percent at the end of the year. What
if what if at the end of the year it
flips the script and now you're only up five percent,
You're like, oh my gosh.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
Or worse you went you went more aggressive down and
you you didn't heed our advice, and you you you,
I guess you've got greedy, overly greedy, and then you
ended up being down because there will be a correction,
there will be another crash. It's there has never been
(40:44):
a market in over one hundred years, more than one
hundred since stocks have existed as investments where and I
can show you in fact, one of the things we
show at the workshop is the market over the last
hundred jones from yep from eighteen eighty six and and
and I don't want to give away why we showed
(41:05):
this particular slide and how important it is to how
we do things and how we help clients manage to
the volatility of the market to not take unnecessary risk
but still get good returns, great returns.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
So, and let me add one more thing, is is
the phrase this time is different. Take that with a
grain of salt. And I'm seeing a lot of stuff
out there, and even big names of analysts out there
that represent these big firms and big investment banks that
they're rationalizing why the market can continue to grow at
(41:47):
these high multiples, at these higher evaluations, because this time
could be a little bit different.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
It could be the new Internet rage with AIS the.
Speaker 2 (41:55):
Big thing this time is different during the Internet bubble exactly,
I was. I was managing money during the Internet bubble,
of course, because I started in nineteen ninety two, and
sure enough, look what happened there. It came back to fundamentals,
financial planning, valuations, you know, just being a solid quality.
(42:18):
And I guess if we would end with anything, it's
that quality matters. You know, the type of investment, the
type of advisory firm, the type and quality of your
financial plan, and the adherence to those things make a
huge difference, So don't get caught up in some of
(42:41):
the headlines out there of returns and get greedy and
start blowing up your plans. And more importantly, if you
don't already have or haven't updated or reviewed your financial
plan and you want a second opinion with absolutely no
costs or obligation, come in and see us John Scambery
(43:02):
and just set beat Visconi by calling nine one six
ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Well, I hope you
enjoyed this week's show. We certainly did have a great weekend.
Speaker 4 (43:12):
Have a great weekend.
Speaker 2 (43:13):
Talk to you next week.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show.
I'm your co host, John Scambra, and I'm here with
my PARTNERBA Wisconsin, and we're certified portfolio managers and we
specialize in helping people who are retired or about to
retire manage their money. Yes we do, Yes, we do.
As always. If you like our show and have questions,
or you want to come in for a no obligation
consultation or sign up for our October fifteenth free Retiree
(00:39):
Dinner Workshop, give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred Again nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. You can also visit
our website wisemoneyguys dot com for disclosures and important information
scroll down to the bottom of the page. And we
(00:59):
haven't thrown this out in a while. Our question email, Yah,
our question email and actually we'll check it, and we
do check it is question at wysmoneyguys dot com. So
if you'd like to send us an email and want
us to talk about something specifically on the show, you
can email us at question at wysmoneyguys dot com.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
So maybe if you have a question from something we
talked about on previous shows or this show, you said, Hey,
you guys talked about this and I'm not quite understanding
what's going on with it.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
Or what it means.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
Yeah, or I just want more information, feel free. Yep.
Speaker 4 (01:36):
You can also visit us on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
You can just search at wise money Guys, or just
type in our names John Scambray and Just Happy Viscontin
or Scambray and Viscontin.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
It'll show up on YouTube. And our show is recorded life.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Yeah, and if you really want to see, you know,
how wonderfully great looking we are. You always say that
if you want to see how balding I am, go
to our YouTube channel. All right, But seriously, we've got
a big show, a lot to talk about. I hate
to start off with I told you so. It's not
(02:12):
a big I told you so, But I've been saying that,
you know, start trimming some profits. So we're going to
jump into obviously, like we always do, investment strategy current events,
just some of the headlines, and then always we talk
a lot specifically about different categories of investments and whether
(02:35):
we think you should be adding to them, trimming them,
or or just you know, not investing and them so
on and so forth. So a lot to talk about
this morning, but let's kick it off with some of
the current you know events that unfolded this week. Lots
of economic news on the inflation front, big news against
(02:56):
Amazon and Google, right, and just you know, uh, expectations
of of what's to come is kind of wishy washy,
right are we are? Are? Is our economy slowing or
is our economy growing? And the data is really should
there be.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
More FED cuts, Federate cuts or is it going to
be a one and done situation?
Speaker 2 (03:20):
So the two biggest headlines last week, you know, we're
again something. Yeah, I know, you always do that to me.
I think of Saturday as the next week, as the
previous week, jump business week, during the business week.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
When it's the weekend you wanted to slow down the
same week, you don't want to go jump in the
next week, and.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Well during Monday through Friday last week, right, because that's
all right, you you I forgot so.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
We had the important aspects was was the economic data,
because we had the Federate cut, we had some commentary
from from the Fed. They did a insurance or risk
management of cutting a quarter point. We discussed that last
week and last week's show, and then we've been monitoring
(04:12):
and the financial news market has been monitoring the ten
year yield, the tenuere Treasury bond and it's yield which
went down to basically four percent flat almost and looking
at the emotion and what that's been doing after the
Feds have cut rates, and it's actually been moving up,
so that's been impacting.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Mortgages and mortgage rates.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
They saw, you know, a little spike in mortgage activity
just previous to the Fed's cutting rates, but then that
slowed back down. And the misconception we talked about last
time was when Fed's cut fed the Federal Reserve cuts rates,
it doesn't mean that all rates across the border go down.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
We talked about that last week.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
But more importantly, it's okay, do they continue and do
they have the firepower and does the data support them
to continue to cut like they' vindicated maybe in what
the market's expecting, which is two more rate cuts this
year of a quarter point.
Speaker 2 (05:11):
I don't think they're going to happen myself.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
Well, the reason data that's come out, it's not really
supporting it, right, because because GDP came out, So Q
two or the second quarter GDP came out and it
was three point eight percent, which that's a strong number.
That's a strong number. That's and not only is a
strong number, but it's above the forecast. Right, they were
estimating it to be three something. Well, no, three point three,
(05:35):
I think you're thinking of the previous quarter. So three
point three came in at three point eight initial jobless claims,
which the Fed cut rates and Jerome Powell talked about, well,
we focused more on the labor market, and so for
kind of risk mitigation, we're giving a quarter point cut
because the softening of the labor market. Well, initial jobless
(05:56):
claims came in and it was two hundred and eighteen thousand.
The forecast was two hundred and thirty three, so it
actually came in a little softer than the forecast. And
then we had core PCEE prices, which is basically just
what what you know consumers are paying for for for
goods and services excluding food and energy and that came
in higher than estimate that came in at two point
(06:18):
six percent versus two and a half. So they're in
this dichotomy right now of the battle between the labor
market and what that's doing and the you know, inflation
data and price stability and what that's doing.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
And you got it.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
And right now they're picking and choosing, like do they
just focus on one and cut rates because of that
one maybe softening, well the other one really isn't softening,
or do they wait till both of them come down?
And I would not want to be in the position,
but I think they could be maybe a one and
done for this year.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
And isn't it interesting? And we saw this last time
when if we go back to the previous year during
the election side goal, when Jerome Powell cut rates, that
rates actually went up. And I was just looking at
the ten year and the ten year we were pretty
much four four flat. It was like just four point
(07:13):
to one hundreds of a percent, so basically four percent,
and rates have actually interest rates have actually gone up.
The ten year is now just a couple of one
hundreds below four point two percent. So you know, the FOMC,
the Federal Reserve Board, the chairman decide to cut a
(07:34):
quarter and actually you get rates going up two tenths
of a percent.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
So well, I think that's important because you have, you know,
a no knock against the current administration and Trump and
he wants the Feds to just slash rates.
Speaker 4 (07:50):
This just goes to show you that they have only
so much control. And thank god.
Speaker 3 (07:55):
The big one, frankly, yeah, and the big, the big
right elephant in the room is the affordability. And you
know people can't afford houses and new homeown by because
in the streets are high. Well, they just cut rates
and it's ticking up. Which this ten year yield treasury,
as we talked about in the last radio show from
last week, it doesn't matter, and it didn't matter last
(08:17):
year when they cut one point. They cut it half
and then two quarter points last year, and rates skyrocketed
by a percent on the ten year treasure yield, and
therefore along did the barring rates for mortgages, car loans,
business loans, so on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
And you know, it's interesting because what you see is
the flow of capital coming out of the treasury market,
and that's just something that's that's hard to I don't
know how you control that as a central bank, because
let's face it, the real reason why the ten year
(08:55):
went up, you know, not a quarter like the cut
of FED funds, but two tenths of a percent, is
because when people start dumping, and when I say people, institutions, funds,
fund managers, portfolio managers like DUSEEPI and I, you know
your your price is going to go down for that
security or that sector of securities market, and the interest
(09:19):
rate's going to go up. So it kind of is
a self defeating purpose or effort to try to just
think that if I only cut FED funds a quarter, somehow,
that's going to trickle down into the treasury market, the
mortgage market, the credit cards market, the car loan market,
(09:39):
which is what really doesn't unless it's so substantial that
banks cut prime drastically. And if banks cut prime drastically,
then they'll lend to you know, big cap X spenders,
you know, at a much lower rate, and then you
might see that trickle down.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
The opposite the Fed's overcut, and it puts a signal
to the investment market and community of why are they
cutting this much? Do they see something that we don't
and should we be worried about something in the economy
of the market or are we going to be entering
recession and they're trying to really stimulate the economy, and
then that triggers a sell off on the market, which
(10:21):
then people will and investments will fly to safe, flight
to safety, which will go into treasuries, and then that
will drive the yield down. But it's too premature I
think at this point. And Feds have been behind the curveball,
you know, Trump Trump has been completely right about that
because that is what we've been seeing. I don't care
what side you're on. I don't care if you watch
TV or not. If you just look at the tenure yield,
(10:45):
the tenure treasure yield and what it's done these past
couple of years, and what the Feds have been doing,
have you know, raising or lowing interest rates? They're behind
the curve.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Yeah, and you know good news in the whole thing
is and bringing this home to what's that mean from
what does this conversation mean from an investment perspective? Is
I just and I'm not going to say which because
you got to call us or come in for a
no obligation consultation or come to our workshop on October
fifteenth and conquered to see the types of investments that
(11:18):
you could get or have in your portfolio through us.
But I just bought a utility bond for a client
ten year actually nine year matures in thirty four at
a coupon of five point eighty five and a yield
to call. The yield to call was the yield to
maturity was pretty close to the five point eight five
(11:38):
because it was just a couple of one hundreds over par,
just a teeny weeny premium, and the yield to call
was five point five to five, which is still, you know,
a great rate.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
So I think we should break that down a little
bit more in layman's term what that actually means.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Okay, a couple of things before we dive into explaining
in more simple terms what I was talking about when
I said, oh, I put this bond in a particular
client's account this morning. Is you know come to that
workshop I mentioned. It's October fifteenth, it's at the old
Spaghetti Factory. I promise it will be a good use
(12:16):
of your time. We get incredible feedback, and more importantly,
we always update our content to be extremely timely and
as accurate as we can get it, you know, for
that day, for that month, for this year, when it
comes to the things that we're showing you and so
(12:37):
you can sign up for that, and I suggest you
do soon because space does fill up. They're not gigantic
you know, restaurants or gigantic rooms. I mean it's usually
at about fifty people, so twenty five couples and we're
at capacity and we get there very fast. So called
(12:58):
nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Again
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. It
will be at the old spaghetti factory in Conquered on
the fifteenth of October from six to seven thirty pm.
The other thing was the bondy, so break that down.
(13:19):
So we threw out terms like you know, par and premium,
to call, to call, yield, to maturity, cubon, you know,
when it comes most most people I think probably have
had or do have bond funds. It's amazing how many
people with wealth, you know, hundreds of thousands have not
(13:42):
had or millions do not have or have ever had
individual bonds where you can control, you know, the credit quality,
you can control the interest rate risk. You can control
the market risk, the timeline, the timeline, and more importantly
you control you know, did you underpay, pay a fair price,
(14:07):
overpay based on what you're going to get over the
term of the holding period. And anybody with hundreds of
thousands of dollars that is a moderate investor, where they're
going to have some of their money in stocks, some
of their money and alternatives, some of their money and
fixed income, in our opinion, should have a custom portfolio
(14:29):
that includes individual bonds.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
And when we say bonds, when we say fixed income,
fixed income.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Is also bonds. It's one of the same, just two
different tss. Just the overarching category of what corp other
things fall into fixed income that we've talked about over
the years, or or at least over the last over
this year. Certainly structured notes, some of the alternative investment
products like the private credit, you know, hedge fund, loan,
(15:00):
real estate, you know, things that fallow those alternative space
can be can fall under the fixed income category. Two
because there there points maybe objective.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
Some structured investments.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
Can because it's an income investment.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
Because the way they're structured is very similar to a bond.
But then the other alternatives would be purely alternative, and.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Actually, but there's income alternatives and there's growth alternatives, and
some are a combination of both, but both of.
Speaker 3 (15:31):
Them, even the growth or the income they're they're both
structured similar to the bond in that you know what
you paid from. There's an investment amount that you know
what you paid from. There's a term, so there's a
maturity date on all of them, and then there's some
sort of metric of how often or the frequency that
it pays out that interest. Right in the structured a
note or or growth, it's going to be a potential,
(15:53):
whereas a bond is going to be guaranteed by the issuer.
And that's the nice thing of having individual bonds versus
the bond fund or an ETF bond fund is that
you it's all spelled out and you know that and
going into kind of Layman's terms that yield to call
the par the premium or whatever. The ideal is that
(16:14):
you want to get into a bond and pay par
or less par just means if a new brand new
let's say, for example, this utility company that that you
that you purchase right they issue bonds. Now a lot
of the times when we buy bonds for clients, it's
on the majority of them, not all of them, but
the majority of them, we're going to be on the
what's called the secondary market I meaning they're already out
(16:36):
there floating in the market, ready to be scooped up
or bought or sold by an investor or an investment
firm like ours or a major institutional investment firm like
Morgan Stanley or Merrilynch or somebody like that. But there's
also a new, newly issued bond. So if this utility
company initially what they did is they said, Okay, we're
going to issue whatever ten million dollars or twenty million
(16:58):
dollars worth of this bond, and we're going to put.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
It out there, and it's debt to the utility company
or the issuer, which could be a corporation or government body.
In this case, it's a utility company, a very large
utility comp so it's.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
Debt and then you on the other side, as the investor, right,
you're buying that debt from them, and in return for
holding that debt, just like a mortgage, you know, just
like a bank does with your mortgage, is you collect
the interest every year, and so when you buy that
and you own an individually, you know how much interest.
(17:32):
So in this sense you said, what five point eight
five percent, So every year, this year, next year, all
the way to twenty thirty four until I'm matures, you're
collecting five point eight five percent based off of the
original investment. That so, if you put ten thousand dollars
in Okay, and if it was a newly issued bond,
it would be selling for one thousand dollars per bond,
(17:53):
So if you bought ten of them, you'd have ten
thousand dollars worth of this utility company's bonds or debt
and every year get five point eight five percent, five
hundred and eighty five dollars of interest per year, doesn't
matter what the market's doing, what the interest rate market's doing,
the inflation, what the Federal Reserve is doing, whether they're
cutting rates, raising rates, so on and so forth, every
(18:14):
year getting five hundred and eighty five dollars of interest.
So it's very spelled out now that what the variable
is is you have a market value, and when you
look at your statement on a daily basis or online,
the market value of that bond is going to fluctuate
up and down, and that's going to be dependent on
what the Federal Reserve is doing, what the market's doing,
(18:35):
inflationary economic indicators that are coming in, so on and
so forth. You don't really get concerned with that unless
for some sort of reason you decide, Hey, I'm going
to sell this bond before it matures because I want
to buy something, or whatever the kiss may be. Sometimes
we sell bonds prematurely, either because people need the cash
(18:56):
or it's because interest rates have come down, and that's
a big catalyst for the market value of those bonds
to go up. And now you've now you've had a
capital appreciation of that bomb, plus you've collected whatever is And.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
A lot of times the folks that that are clients
of ours or become clients of ours, they've had bond funds,
as I've said, and they've never had individual bonds, but
then they've had say CDs, often they've had CDs. A
CD really works, really works the same way. It really
is just a debt or obligation of that bank. And
(19:31):
we like bank bonds. Bank bonds have paid some great
rates to you know, our clients. Uh this year, so
that the Deutsche bank bond is still high fives and
so on and so forth. I saw that again this morning,
but we were getting them at six, which which was great,
you know, just a few months ago. But the point
(19:53):
is is that it really is similar from a risk
perspective and a and a and a and a risk tolerance.
So if you deem yourself conservative and and you're looking
to where you can get the highest rate and still
be conservative at the same time, and you have hundreds
(20:15):
of thousands of dollars, that's where whether it's if you
have high income where municipal individual bonds come in, if
you have a little more tolerance for you know, maybe
in the open market some price minor price fluctuations as
this interest rate game, you know, uh, takes place than
(20:35):
than corporate bonds certainly, or a placket, yeah, or you're
not in a high tax bracket. So you know, you
definitely want to give us a call, because there's no
reason to be earning two or three or four percent
on your money because you're afraid of the stock market.
(20:55):
That's the big thing. There's so much more to the
invent SMI world and ways to make money. Josefi mentioned
structured notes, which we do go into at our workshop
and show you how and why a structured note and
what sort of risk mitigation features it has to still
(21:17):
get you stock like you know, returns and so on
and so forth, so without risk, complete just stock market risk.
So point is is you definitely want to call us
for a no obligation consultation. I mean again, if you're
just earning two three four percent on your money and
you're worried about fees and you're worried about return and
(21:39):
you're worried about risk, we'll take the time to sit
down with you and show you how we can potentially
enhance and increase your returns over what you're doing, and
a lot of times actually reducing people's risks. They come
in with portfolios of bond funds or stock funds and
(22:00):
they have two hundred thousand, five hundred thousand a million
dollars or more, and we actually reduce their exposure but
yet increase their dividends and interest rates. So give us
a call at nine one six nine six seven thirty
five hundred. Do that to get on our calendar for
a no obligation consultation and a free retirement plan analysis,
(22:23):
or come to our workshop on October fifteenth from six
to seven thirty pm in Conquered at the Old Spaghetti
Factory and again a you can go to our website
wysmoeyguys dot com and find all kinds of great information
through our website, plus a chat feature, plus a contact
(22:45):
or or or or sign up for a no obligation
consultation or our or our seminars. Through our website, you
can watch us. If you caught some of the show
and he went, oh, I want to I want to
learn more about that. You can see us again doing
this and putting out this information on our YouTube channel
by searching our names or wise money Guys. And then
(23:08):
as always you can call us or you know, reach
out through our question email which is question at wismoneyguys
dot com. And and finally the number once again nine
one seven thirty five hundred. So we mentioned the Amazon
and Google thing, but the Amazon, I mean this, this
is just so laughable. So Amazon gets fined what the
(23:32):
largest fine ever by the f f FPC Federal Trade Commission,
and and break that down a little bit because it's
just yeah, so from I just money grab Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23:42):
Some fraudulent I guess like auto subscription type thing. I
don't read too much into it exactly what it was,
but I guess there was consumers that got auto subscribed
or auto renewed for the Amazon Prime, so they got
fined two point five most subscriptions.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
This has work auto.
Speaker 4 (24:01):
Maybe it wasn't.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Maybe anybody said I don't want to be auto renewed,
and they auto renewed anymore.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
There was no consent or there wasn't notification. I mean,
this happens all the time.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
I mean I ordered, well, actually, my cousin, this is
a side side store of my cousin.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Everybody is your cousin when you're Italian.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Yeah, the way we're talking about we're talking about my
my cousin ordered this uh pill, like this bottle of pills.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
So it's supposed to like clean out. There's like this
new I don't know if it's a.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Trend or just unknown, but like probiotic no, no, this
it's there's all this information. There's also information that we
have parasites. Right, you would think that you would have
to be more concerned to that in federal countries, but
here in the United States, we actually have parasites.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Get parasites from sushi, and undercook meats and why do
the ginger in the sabi? By the way, you're going
to learn a lot on this show.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
That doesn't cut it, though. So then there's these other
these other like ivermectin is one that you can take.
Then there's a fen bendasol, and then there's other things.
I'm not a doctor.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
The antibody thing, yeah, isn't that what they were prescribing for.
Speaker 3 (25:13):
Well, it's actually a malaria drug originally malaria, but they
found that you take that and it helps like with
parasitic problems with your gut.
Speaker 4 (25:23):
Anyway, so he got this.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
My point was there's a point.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
He ordered this bottle, looked at great advertising, so and
so forth. You bought it.
Speaker 3 (25:32):
He started taking it, and I don't know if it
was legit or if it was a police bowl effect,
but you don't have this chat. I have this chat
with my cousins and some friends, and he's like pitching
it to us and oh, my gosh, and I feel
better and no, I don't have the blow, you know,
my my my gut feels much better and blah blah blah.
So he convinces me because my other cousin was talking
(25:53):
about this and he's in the fitness industry, and we
thought it.
Speaker 4 (25:55):
Was the same thing that was going on or the
same same.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
Vitamins or supplements that he got last year that he
did for his family and helped with his gut. So
I ordered it, but then I think it was ten
days into it. He goes back on the chat and says,
don't buy this. It's a scam. And so I'm texting
him back. Why I just ordered it? You know, he
just sold me on it. You thought you're feeling better,
he says, because I found three other charges on my
(26:23):
credit card and their auto is it's like they enrolled
me in an auto subscription to just get a renewed refill,
you know, every so often, he says.
Speaker 4 (26:33):
But they've already charged me three more times.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
But that really sounds like more of a security Internet
security issue than an Amazon. But it was directly ordered
through through that. But maybe again, is that fraud or
or whatever they were by the company Amazon versus somebody
gideing the Amazon information?
Speaker 3 (26:57):
Yeah, well yeah, because why is somebody gonna scam me
and say, oh, do you ordered three more bottles with
the supplement directly from the supplement company or same thing
with Amazon, like they're not benefiting.
Speaker 2 (27:05):
I've remected and actually I just looked up. I mean
it's made by mirk and and merk is probably at
a price, a good entry point price. In fact, I
think it is. Well I remec and the problem this
is generic and it's very cheap. Yeah. Well again I'm
just looking, going, how do we tie this into you know,
no investments?
Speaker 4 (27:26):
Well, well, I was trying.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
I was talking about parasites and your guy.
Speaker 4 (27:30):
Yeah, so I was.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
I was tying it into Amazon, and like what sometimes
happens with these companies, right when you say, oh, I
want to subscribe to your service or your product, and
then they just.
Speaker 4 (27:40):
Automatically put you on.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
So that's that's what they're getting fined for two and
a half billion and a half billion dollars. And here's
what's funny. Much goes to the government as just a hey,
thank you and we'll just pend us out to our friends.
Speaker 3 (27:52):
Penalty fee one billion goes to goes towards civil penalty,
goes to towards civil penalty. One and a half billion
dollars goes back to the consumers that were you know,
you know, had a problem with it.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
I don't know if anybody. And then we looked at that.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
Yeah, go ahead, We looked up so we said, well,
how many how many Amazon users subscribers, subscribers are there
in the US?
Speaker 4 (28:15):
Yeah right, And it was I just forgot two hundred
and fifty five.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Million, three hundred and nine millillion, So basically each subscriber
in this if it was, we'll get five bucks.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
If it was, if it was spread out that why
I haven't even I haven't even paid attention to mine.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
It's like all these class action suits where you know
it'll be you know, so like remember the tobacco ones
that barely did anything to dibacco the copy. In fact,
the Reynolds and the Altrias and the Philip Morrises of
the world, or probably some of the most consistent dividend
pain increase their dividends every year for decade type stocks
(28:54):
along with alcohol stocks that that you can invest in.
But that's neither here nor there. It's just class action
suits happen in the attorneys and the regulator bodies get
all this money and then the people who actually deserve
the money get like nothing. They get Oh you fill out,
sign into this class action suit and get your forty
(29:16):
two dollars of the forty six million that was just aborted.
Speaker 3 (29:20):
I mean, it's well in in a corporation sense, and unfortunately,
I mean this is kind of the the negative view
of it is the corporation of the company that's that
that's doing this. Sometimes they let things, they can let
things slip through the cracks, because then they do a
cost benefit analysis and say, if we end up doing
a auto subscription or like cigarette company, you know cigarette companies,
(29:46):
tobacco companies, and we know it causes harm, or like Monsanto,
same thing.
Speaker 4 (29:51):
They've made billions and billions and billions.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Of dollars already and they know, okay, there might be
a lawsuit coming down at some point in time because
either it's impacting somebody or a group of people's health
and then we get sued or whatever. But then, for example,
like Amazon, two and a half billion dollars dropping the bucket.
It's dropping the bucket, and they've made and how many
billions did they make from the mistake, So if they
(30:16):
made twenty billion, yeah, and they have to two and
a half and they you know, they have to give
up a little good business.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
It's good math. But the stock price has cost them
a lot more than that. I mean, if if you
look at the last five days, Amazon's dropped over six percent,
and if you take that from a market cap perspective,
now you're hurting them because that could literally be you know,
a billion dollars. And then I'm not doing the math right.
Speaker 3 (30:41):
Except for except for when you and I go home today,
I guarantee you we're gonna have some Amazon packages still
over front.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
It's just so funny. You know another one that's funny.
Speaker 3 (30:50):
Now I'm saying it's I'm not saying it's right. It's
just unfortunately, this is how how things work in the
world with companies. But it is good to pay attention
to if the if the lawsuit or something that's being
brought to companies large enough, and then okay, how hard
is it going to hit them market cap wise and
stock if you own the stock right and is it
is it gonna last or is it gonna be temporary
(31:11):
or it could be a buying opportunity.
Speaker 2 (31:12):
And to really bring it home again, how does this
come back to why we're the wise bunny guys and
how this impacts your investment dollars? Is we've been saying
where we've talked about the stock market potentially being in
a bubble. Here we've talked about the overvaluation UH and
the high multiples of the average S and P five
(31:35):
hundred company being you know historically you know, too high,
way above average, and even you know, back to the
the Internet bubble or or the pre financial crisis bubble
and so on and so forth. And sure enough we're
seeing you know, stocks this this week because you know,
(31:56):
Saturday is still this week sell off, you know, three
four days in a row. And so why you should listen,
why you should come into a consultation, Because we started
trimming stock, increasing cash increasing, fixed income, increasing alternatives, why
(32:17):
things were still at records. You know, it's so important
to not get caught up in the perfect tops or
the perfect bottoms. And yet people who manage the money themselves,
or you know, sadly advisors who get too cocky, think
they're gonna just know, you know, when as I said,
(32:40):
the exact top things, it doesn't matter. You want to
add to positions that you like that makes sense. You know,
somewhere after you know, the price, the multiple, the valuations,
the technicals gets reasonable. That's a great word. And then
you want to get out when you've made a lot
(33:00):
of money. So I I've been trinning inn RG, the
utility company. That's been a great growth growth story. It's
a lot of movie. I mean, most of our clients
are up three four, five hundred, even as high as
six hundred percent just on this one position. I still
like it. We still like it. It made a lot
(33:21):
of money in a in our models, and we still
have a healthy dose of it, but we also sold
a healthy dose of it and then redeployed that into
other things. If you're not getting that, you know through
your current advisor or the way you do things, you
definitely want to give us a call at nine one
(33:42):
six nine six seven thirty five hundred. And I want
to finish out this this weekend show on something that's
just crucial, so important to not get caught up in.
And I can't tell you how many times we've in
our reviews because we sit down with our clients regularly,
at least twice a year, sometimes more than four times.
(34:06):
It just depends on you know, what type of client,
what type of portfolio, what your needs are. But the
one thing that almost all of our clients have in
common is that we approach their making their portfolios and
managing their money based on a financial planning process. And
(34:28):
so many times, how many times you know, do we
do we go back to the financial plan? And this
seems to only happen in years where you're going to
see the S and P, you know, do fifteen, twenty,
twenty five percent, which isn't often.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
It's been recent years, right, Just how many in that
since nineteen ninety two, how many years would you say
you've had like fifteen to twenty percent annual return?
Speaker 4 (34:55):
Analyze return?
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Hardly ever, I mean the average is nine that late nineties, yeah, right,
late late late nineteen twenty thirteen, phenomenal year. Yep, a
little bit, you know, or well actually after the market
had really sold off in two thousand and eight. Nine
twenty ten was a pretty good year.
Speaker 3 (35:13):
But it was.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
Exactly But I'm just saying that's but that's a great perspective.
The fact of the matter is the market averages about
nine percent per year going back one hundred years, decades
and decades. Yet when we have these years where you
know the S and P is going to return just
call it twenty percent, all of a sudden, people want
(35:35):
to abandon their plans. They forget about being conservative moderate,
They forget that they only need you know, let's say
their minimum return to objective, which is the main financial
thing that planning does for us. Say, I need this
sort of return each year net a fees above inflation
to accomplish, you know, my goals and maintain my station
(35:58):
in life for the rest of my life. All of
a sudden, that goes out the window. And I caution
you everybody. You know, greed is a good thing, right,
you want to invest to make money, but getting overly
greedy because we're having a couple of.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
Good years and started getting reckless.
Speaker 2 (36:16):
And getting reckless, especially when you're doing things yourself. I mean,
we've had clients that go you know, they come in
and they want to redo everything, and we go back
to their plan and we show them that, hey, you know,
you only need to make a five or six percent return,
and you're at ten percent, you're to date, eight percent,
you're to date. You might end up net eleven, twelve,
(36:37):
thirteen percent. We don't know. We don't have a crystal ball.
But the point is if you go back and were
your your way above what you need to have and
you're in the the nice to have, and so don't
ruin that. But getting over lee greedy, double it and
wanting to blow up your plan because your plan is
(36:59):
for five I have ten twenty thirty years, and unless
there's some major shift in inflation or the economy or
your something happens in your life that causes you to
have to drastically redo your plan, that's the only time
you want to drastically redo your portfolio. Don't get caught
(37:21):
up in the hype of the few companies that have
gone up thirty forty fifty, one hundred percent.
Speaker 4 (37:27):
It's a nice year. I'll give an analogy, and I've
given this analogy before. The plan is really the blueprint.
It's the roadmap. We've used different terms.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
But taking a house and say you have a million
dollars and you said, here, John Giuseppe, I have a
million bucks. I have a plot of land over there
I already bought, and I want you to build me
a house right now. We're not gonna just take a
million bucks and just say okay, you want us to
build you a house.
Speaker 2 (37:52):
Great, and we get to going to home depot and
buying a bunch of lumber.
Speaker 4 (37:55):
Yep, we're and we're building a house.
Speaker 3 (37:57):
No, we spend time talking about what kind of house
you want, is it one story, two story, how many bedrooms,
how many bathrooms?
Speaker 2 (38:04):
Is it?
Speaker 3 (38:04):
You know, traditional styles, a modern style, what sort of
features you want? You know, what what do you want
your kitchen and blah blah blah blah. Right, all the details,
and that's how you design the blueprint.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (38:14):
Now, let's say you move into a neighborhood and you said, yep,
it's just me and my husband, we're retired. We like
to you know, we had a two story. We don't
want any more stairs. We want to want to story
you and your husband. Oh yeah, that's weird, right, could
be the other way out? Yeah, yeah, good, good catch, Sarah. No,
(38:39):
that's that's not the that's not the.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
Not that there's anything wrong with it.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
Yeah, but you decide that you and your spouse. Okay,
how about that. You decide that you and your spouse
decide that, hey, we want we don't want stairs.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
We have a two story. Now we're building our retirement home.
We got the pluddle and we want a one story.
But then in the neighborhood that you're in, everybody is
building a two story. And so now you already have
the blueprint, you got the money, you know what you want,
you know what's gonna benefit you free needs. And then
all of a sudden, in the middle of building your
house said, you know what, we want a two story.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
I want to go big.
Speaker 4 (39:17):
We want a two story.
Speaker 3 (39:19):
We want a balcony in the back, we want a pool,
we want a water slide, we want all these different things.
You're like, whoa, whoa, why do you want to look
at everybody else. Everybody's getting these contractors and they're building
these two stories with water slides and pools and right roof.
That's kind of that's kind of the same thing. When
we have a plan and we charted out it's for longevity.
(39:39):
It's not for this year, it's not for the quarter,
it's not for the next six months. It's for longevity.
It's what do you need and what does it need
to do for you for the next twenty or thirty
years in retirement or between now and when you retire,
to get you to retire, to be able to retire,
what do you need your assets to do for you?
Speaker 4 (39:56):
And that's how much risk you want to take.
Speaker 3 (39:58):
And there's gonna be some years, like John say, maybe
you need a seven percent, but right now we're at
ten percent so far, and maybe you finish a year
at twelve percent, Great, we'll take you.
Speaker 2 (40:06):
Yeah, you're going to be away with your plan to
try to go for that every year when you only
need the seven.
Speaker 3 (40:12):
Right, you don't want to say, Okay, let's press the
gas even more and maybe we can get to fifteen
or twenty percent at the end of the year. What
if what if at the end of the year it
flips the script and now you're only up five percent,
You're like, oh my gosh.
Speaker 2 (40:23):
Or worse you went you went more aggressive down and
you you didn't heed our advice, and you you you,
I guess you've got greedy, overly greedy, and then you
ended up being down because there will be a correction,
there will be another crash. It's there has never been
(40:44):
a market in over one hundred years, more than one
hundred since stocks have existed as investments where and I
can show you in fact, one of the things we
show at the workshop is the market over the last
hundred jones from yep from eighteen eighty six and and
and I don't want to give away why we showed
(41:05):
this particular slide and how important it is to how
we do things and how we help clients manage to
the volatility of the market to not take unnecessary risk
but still get good returns, great returns.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
So, and let me add one more thing, is is
the phrase this time is different. Take that with a
grain of salt. And I'm seeing a lot of stuff
out there, and even big names of analysts out there
that represent these big firms and big investment banks that
they're rationalizing why the market can continue to grow at
(41:47):
these high multiples, at these higher evaluations, because this time
could be a little bit different.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
It could be the new Internet rage with AIS the.
Speaker 2 (41:55):
Big thing this time is different during the Internet bubble exactly,
I was. I was managing money during the Internet bubble,
of course, because I started in nineteen ninety two, and
sure enough, look what happened there. It came back to fundamentals,
financial planning, valuations, you know, just being a solid quality.
(42:18):
And I guess if we would end with anything, it's
that quality matters. You know, the type of investment, the
type of advisory firm, the type and quality of your
financial plan, and the adherence to those things make a
huge difference, So don't get caught up in some of
(42:41):
the headlines out there of returns and get greedy and
start blowing up your plans. And more importantly, if you
don't already have or haven't updated or reviewed your financial
plan and you want a second opinion with absolutely no
costs or obligation, come in and see us John Scambery
(43:02):
and just set beat Visconi by calling nine one six
ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Well, I hope you
enjoyed this week's show. We certainly did have a great weekend.
Speaker 4 (43:12):
Have a great weekend.
Speaker 2 (43:13):
Talk to you next week.
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