May 22, 2025 • 43 mins
Retirement is right around the corner, but the costs of living has been skyrocketing. What can be done to save more to make your retirement funds last? Hosts John and Giuseppe give us a strategic rundown of their process for clients. Plus, processing our news-drivien markets, Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", Tarriffs, and Diversificaton. The Wise Money Guys!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm your
co host John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner
Sepi Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize
in helping people who are retired or about to retire
manage their money. Now we say that, but will quite
frankly help anybody who has money manage their money. But
our specialty and majority of our clients are retired, because
(00:35):
let's face it, that's who has the money these days, and.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
So there's a lot more people retiring.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
And a lot more of the baby boomers who are
still retiring by the thousands every day. But Giuseppe and I,
as as long time highly experienced investment experts, have really
dedicated our career to helping people who are retire, you know,
not outlive their money. I would say that's our main goal,
(01:03):
wouldn't you.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
And so to do that, first of all, you got
to be a fiduciary, which we are Secondly, Chuck, you've
got to have a long term understanding of the types
of situations that families face over the years throughout retirement.
And then third or third Lee, people are living a
(01:25):
lot longer so and they're living in circumstances where everything
cost more and is projected to cost a lot more.
So they as a just a main goal keeping up
with inflation and helping people do that has never been
more meaningful than it is right now. When interest rates
(01:47):
were really high prior to you know, two thousand and six,
if you didn't have any debt, you could you could
outpace inflation because inflation's average ten year rate was about
one and a half.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Oh no, average previous to two thousand and eight. The
inflation rate that most planners users around three percent, right,
But you can go out and get bonds, you know,
fixed income at like four percent or higher than the
inflation rate, which was conservative. You know. Then after two
thousand and eight, obviously it just changed the whole.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
And that's where that decade averaged about one and a
half percent. But now based on how everything has spiked
up in cost, especially insurance, utilities, gas, healthcare, food, you know,
what a million dollars used to buy twenty years ago,
(02:41):
and what used to be an adequate amount to supplement
your retirement just isn't the case anymore now when you
work with folks like Giuseppe and I, having a million
dollars can certainly make life easier or more. And often
we find that people aren't getting everything out of their
(03:04):
portfolio that they should be. In fact, many many times
we find that people have two hundred and fifty thousand,
five hundred thousand, a million or more in mutual funds,
And you really should have a custom portfolio, wouldn't you agree?
At least when you have two hundred and fifty thousand
or more, I mean five hundred is great, two hundred
(03:25):
and fifty thousand or more, you pretty much shouldn't have
mutual fund.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Well, you could pretty much create your own mutual fund
if you have two hundred and fifty thousand or more,
so you don't have to rely on But the thing is,
it just takes it takes time knowledge, you know, an
effort to put that together. And you know, today's world
is all about convenience, right and simplicity, and you know,
(03:48):
sometimes there's too much information. So if somebody would go
out there and search the internet. And even with with
the world of AI, right, they think, oh well, AI,
you know now can start doing things. But some of
the data that you get from AI is not correct,
or it could be a little outdated or and so
how do you decipher from that? And so that's where
we really come in is we put the time effort
(04:10):
and have spent time and education on top of that
to to really find the best ways to create a
diversified portfolio and create more of your own mutual fund
instead of relying on other big names out.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
There custom mutual fund actively managed versus passively you know,
forgotten about, which is a great way to put what
most people do when they have mutual funds or an
advisor who puts them all in mutual funds. They tend
to never change, even though their situation might be changing,
or the world around them has has changed drastically like
(04:51):
it has now.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
And so like the Moody's downgrade, yeah right, yeah exactly,
I mean, you know, surprisingly and to go ahead, get
sidetracked a little bit.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I'm surprised the Moody's down grade didn't spike up interest rates,
you know higher quite frankly.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Well, they the interest rates spiked after the bond auction
took place on Wednesday, But you know, when when the
announcement was made, I thought there was going to be
more volatility Monday Tuesday, and it was. It was more
of a nothing burger.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yeah, I mean, we were hovering around four to four
and the ten year treasury and then I think the
highest we hit despite the Moody's down grade, despite the auction,
was about four to six, and now we've trimmed back
down to about four or five in the ten year treasury.
Why is that important? Well, because you know, safety, interest rates,
(05:47):
riskless returns kind of dictate where the economy is from
a from a especially from an investment perspective, but more
importantly from a borrowing perspect you know, higher rates lead
to typically a slower economy. Lower rates lead to a
(06:07):
growth economy. And so the fact that rates didn't like
go through the roof based on the downgrade just shows
you how skeptical people are of news really or news
driven markets, and well.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
And how resilient the market is so far. You know,
I think it's it's it's teetering, and the ten year
is really looked upon, and you know we got up
to five percent, and the tenure the thirty year got
above five percent. I think it got to like five
point one, yeah, and so that that rattled the markets.
But that was on Wednesday, and we saw the markets
come down one and a half to you know, just
(06:45):
one hundred two percent, depending on the induscry that you tracked.
So it'll be interesting to see how how that develops,
if that was just kind of a one off, or
or if there's more to come from it. But very
surprised on how resilient the market was and how it
just really shrugged off, you know, initially, and the initial
impact after the news came out.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
What amazes me, and I have some good news after
I make this statement about what amazes me is that
people with money, stubbornly often don't don't do anything based
on you know, what's going on. And quite frankly, we
also see many times that people have way too much
(07:26):
risk in their portfolio. And and when we start getting
a good market, which we had a great market at
the beginning of the year, then we had two months
of a dive literally a.
Speaker 3 (07:40):
Crash dive that was like a water slide. Yeah, it
was a.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Crash by definition standards more than twenty percent the S
and P and the Nasdaq went down, and then when
they see their portfolios go down drastically, that's when they,
you know, start paying changing.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
They want to make changes and withdrawal.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Money and and lock in losses. And here we we
routinely give people tips and tools to not panic, not
let them move emotions rule their their strategy. But nevertheless,
if you're not going to put in the time effort research,
(08:19):
you know, the full time role of being an investment
expert into managing your own money, you absolutely should give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. And then the good news is is
that we're a little less than two weeks away from
(08:41):
our June fourth Wednesday from six to seven thirty pm
at the old spaghetti Factory in Conquered called nine one
six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. So if you're
a retiree and you have mutual funds, or you're somebody
who's about to retire and you have two hundred and
(09:01):
fifty thousand or more that you're concerned about, you definitely
want to attend because whether you decide to go to
the next step, which would be a no obligation consultation
with us or not. I guarantee you'll walk away with
some information that can help you make investment decisions with
your portfolio. And the real exciting news is we will
(09:25):
have officially launched our partnership with Farther, which will allow
us to help people with multiple types of accounts. So
whether you're already Schwab, or you're already Fidelity or I'm
even excited to say whether you're Goldman, Sachs, Pershing, bny
(09:47):
mellon any account, Interactive Brokers, any account with any of those,
you can actually hire us and try our services, which
are fee based, fiduciary based, planning based without changing a
single thing, without moving your account, you know, without So.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
That's convenient, It makes it makes it much much simpler.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Yeah, So, by all means, come to that seminar from
six to seven thirty pm on June fourth, Wednesday at
the old Spaghetti Factory in Conquered and we were basically
about to dive into, you know, some of the things
going on. But one of the biggest things that just
(10:34):
happened this last week is the passing of the tax bill,
a big, beautiful bill, as Trump labeled it in the House,
which is huge because it's actually following, you know, the
the process that that a new bill, new legislation, especially
budget legislation coming out of Congress, has not followed in
(10:59):
more more than eight years. And that's under the previous administration,
and then even during the Trump years, you know, a
Democrat controlled House, they haven't. They haven't followed the process
of passing a budget, like I said, in eight years.
So this is the first time that will will follow
(11:23):
the process. It went through the House, it was negotiated
through all committees, so nobody can say it wasn't transparent.
There wasn't an opportunity to have your two cents versus.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
Who did the negotiations? Was it Joe Pesci?
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Yeah, that it wasn't Joe Pesci. But if you think
about it, during the Nancy Pelosi reign, she would say
as idiotic as oh, we have to pass the bill
to see what's in it. Those were her famous words
that go, well, why would we have you? What is
your role if you don't and read any of the
(12:01):
legislation that you actually pass, remember especially the Obamacare, nobody
actually read the bill that that Democrats.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
Well, now now there's AI. So yeah, if you're if
you're if you're lazy, you could just put through the
air and say, hey, point out this, that and the
other thing whatever, and we'll go search for it.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
And look what that did for us because that bill
did not go through any committee review, no, no, no negotiations.
But whatsoever Obamacare. Look what's happened to our healthcare? We
have the worst healthcare in the world and we have
the most expensive healthcare in the world because of you
know what Democrats did with Obamacare and ramming that down
(12:45):
through the throats of taxpayers and calling it a healthcare bill.
It wasn't a healthcare bill. It was a regulation and
insurance bill because it had nothing to do with improving
health care for for.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
For our health as the US health has actually declined,
right and so that's what they're they're focusing on right now.
But back to the beautiful, big, beautiful, big beautiful bill.
Just for some of those that don't I follow a
little bit of it. I know you follow a lot
more of that than I do. What are What would
you say is some of the highlights that are are
(13:21):
are great, that's beautiful, and maybe some of the things
that might might not be as beautiful.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
The big eies that were contentious, by the way, is
salt so now in California, New York State, in local taxes,
state and local taxes, they increase the deduction for individuals
joint filers had a households no to forty wow, so
it went from ten thousand to forty thousand. The other
(13:49):
big thing is passed through a business expenditures increased for
small businesses to owners of those companies. And on top
of that, huge regulatory cuts. More so than any bill
which normally is adding regulation is adding rules, this actually
(14:11):
cuts regulations. And then on top of that, getting illegal
aliens come on out of Medicaid, out of Social Security.
Those were that's the biggest cuts that attributed to the
one trillion dollars that they're going to try to save.
Even more so, now it goes to the Senate and
the Senate will have their two cents, the Senators to
(14:33):
mark it up and send it back to the House
and we'll probably see even greater cuts. Because the goal
was to get the cuts to about two trillion over
ten years, and basically what I heard and read the
cuts right now stand in about one trillion over ten years,
which doesn't even get us if I have a gripe
(14:54):
about it, it doesn't even get us to pre COVID
spending levels. Even with the one trillion dollars in cuts.
We really needed two three more trillion or more in
cuts just to be pre COVID from a government spending perspective. So,
you know, but the goods we've.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
Gotten too used to the spendings pre we've been on
for the past few years. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
But the good news is is they didn't raise the
top marginal rate on.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Taxes because they were considering that.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Yep, it's staying at thirty six point nine. So the
people who actually feed the economy, that make hundreds of
thousands of dollars a year and consume everything, that's where
a lot of tax revenue comes from, they're not being penalized.
And like I said, the massive benefit is small salts
going up, but small business small business owners are going
(15:50):
to have greater deductibility and that's just gigantic and super
growthy as they like to say. Now, didn't even know
that was a word.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Yeah, Kudlow's been saying for a long time.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Yeah, but they're they're saying this, and Cudlow likes it.
By the way, you know, like any legislation coming out
of Washington, you're never going to get everything that you want.
You know, there's just no such thing. I mean, politicians
just you know, they fear their re election uh potential,
(16:23):
more than they want to do the right thing for
American citizens. Now that they'll do partially the right thing.
And this is both sides. This is this is a
political that's just the nature of the beast. You know,
for every one person that you're making happy, on the
other side, you're making somebody unhappy. And so that's the
(16:45):
balance of being a politician. So you're never going to
get what you want in a bill completely.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
To satisfy everybody's needs, to satisfy everybody but small businesses,
because the small businesses have been a long pack exactly
lifeblood of the and they've been heavily impacted with COVID,
then had some relief with all the stimulus, then got
impacted again by the high inflation in twenty twenty two,
(17:12):
and still impacted. Then have maybe a little bit of
relief because we had pretty good markets in razilm markets
in twenty three and twenty four and then now this year,
doesn't matter what side they're on, right, they're trying to
figure out this whole tariff narrative. And I know if
I've talked to you know, one of our clients who's
a small business owner has been a small business owner
for three four decades now in the local area, and
(17:34):
had a brief conversation of how he's been impacted in
his business, and he says, so far, not a whole
lot has He's had to raise his prices and some
product lines maybe five percent, maybe ten percent, And the
vendors right now from what he's seeing as the vendors
right now, they're they're raising a little bit. But what
they're doing is they're trying to they're taking a hit
(17:55):
because they're trying to see how things unfold. Right. And
so I think as some of this uncertainty becomes more certain, right,
and we gain more certainty of houses whole tariff situation
gonna take place and the goods that are imported, right,
how much they're gonna have to raise prices or how
much am I willing to eat of it? And if
(18:16):
we can get some relief where small businesses have bigger
write offs, right, and can keep more of their tax dollars.
That's gonna that's gonna help offset.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
All ends up driving more tax revenue, because growth of
the economy actually drives tax revenue, you know, raising interest rates,
increasing regulation, increasing taxes actually decreases tax report revenue for medicare,
(18:45):
for self security, for the military, you know, so it's
just the opposite. The goal is to do things like
you just said that are gonna help people have more
money left over, which means they'll spend more money, which
means we'll have more growth of the economy, which puts
actually more revenue into the coffers of the United States
(19:08):
government to really pay for the defense and maintain you know,
our way of life.
Speaker 3 (19:14):
As long as they curb they're spending government.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
That's the problem. You know, if you think too our
back a couple of weeks ago to our first trust
conference that we attended, you know, the goal is is
just to keep the growth rate higher than the increase
in the debt. And if you can do that, then
you never really have to pay down the debt. I mean,
(19:38):
that's the point that Westberry was making, is that as
long as you can sustain a growth rate above the
growth rate of the debt.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
And if I'm racking up credit card bills, getting a
bunch of loans and that starts to exceed my income
and my income doesn't go I don't find ways to
have my income increase along with it, I'm going to
start getting into trouble exactly right. And so.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
You know, putting that all together, what this all means
is you have to be paying attention. You know what
did well in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty three,
like the AI sector of stocks, is it necessarily where
you're going to make money in the rest of twenty
(20:22):
five or twenty six.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Although that has been really the catalyst driving the market downswing,
oh as well as the chip news as well as
the recovery. It has broadened out, but I've been seeing
that it still has a dominance in the market right
and in the indusices itself. But yeah, diversification and not
(20:46):
focusing on just some names to chase and say, oh,
I didn't have the opportunity in twenty three and twenty four.
I didn't ride that wave in XYZ stock or some
AI stock, and now's the time to buy into it.
And I'm just going to focus all on that this
is a times take advantage of what is taking place
in the overall economy. Like we've talked about high interest
rates and what can you do with that that you
(21:07):
can't do if we get into a lower interest ring
environment at some point.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
If you want to give us a call and learn
more about ways that we can help you with your portfolio,
or to register for our seminar on June fourth and
conquered at the old spaghetti factory called nine one six
ninety six, seven thirty five hundred, nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred. You know, I guess at the
beginning of the year, we were talking tailwinds, headwinds, and
(21:35):
there's still headwinds. I mean, I get that.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
You know, the market hit.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Its highs, all time highs and Fedruary, then the S
and P, Nasdaq and Dow crashed in March and April.
And now we've recovered most of that crash. But the
stuff that caused the crash or crash is, let's say,
is still out there. And what I'm talking about is
(22:03):
the delay in tariffs, and so what's coming up? I mean,
where are we in the delay in tariffs? Because if
we don't inc more deals like obviously we inked one
direct with the UK. Yeah, we've inked deals with you know,
Katar and Saudi Arabia and some others.
Speaker 3 (22:24):
But there's been talks on India. I don't think there's that.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
I don't think we've officially inked India. We inked Vietnam.
I'm pretty sure.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
EU they came out with something as far as like
a kind of a what do they say that term
cares about?
Speaker 4 (22:41):
The EU controls nothing. By the way, what are you
talking about? We we you and I love the cars
that come.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Out of the.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
But if you think about the EU, not to get
us to sidetracked, but the EU actually is more like
a central banking uh committee, because they don't they don't
have rain over about Yeah, you know, let's think of
the chemus individual countries.
Speaker 3 (23:10):
Yeah, well, Italy, Italy has has come out at the
Prime Minister of Italy's come out and she said, I
think Georgia Maloney, I.
Speaker 4 (23:21):
Think it's your last name. Maybe it's my cousin Maloney,
Georgia Bloney. Are you hungry?
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Yes I am. But she's she had pretty constructive talks
with Trump and trying to figure out some sort of
deal and breaking away and not having to wait for
the EU as a whole. I know, the latest thing
that's come out as you talked about lobster. Now, yeah,
I don't know, I don't know. I don't know how
much that's going to move the needle of US, you know,
(23:47):
exporting our lobster to remove tariffs on lobster. Like you
came out and said, Okay, okay, America, Uh, we're going
to uh, we're going to work with you. Okay, how
about this, how about your lobster. We're going to import
your lobster right now? What are you going to come back? Okay,
now it's your turn in negotiator, Like.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
It's just dumb.
Speaker 3 (24:08):
Yeah, I don't know how much I moves it, but
at least it's starting somewhere. And going back to original question.
You know, I looked up because we were wondering like
how much how many days left of the ninety day
delay the initial ninety day delay that took place last month.
I believe it was in fact April tenth of last month,
(24:28):
which really turned the markets around, right, because the market
bottomed April eighth, and then the news came out that
there was going to be a delay, and then that
delay took place, and that we have now about forty
five days left.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
And if you think about it, last week we had
a glimpse of what would happen if the tariff conversation
doesn't continue being positive in any way, shape or form.
There was just some sensationalism of of you know, the
chip fight between China and the US and the fact
(25:05):
that the US is blocking you know, companies, our companies
that make chips from selling our best stuff to China,
and the market, you know, had a something down one
two per day.
Speaker 3 (25:20):
A lot of that, well, I think I think that's
more so of the the the bond auction that took
place on Wednesday and they sold like sixteen billion dollars
of treasury and we had the Moodi's which happened, you know,
and was announced and our first effective market day was Monday.
Didn't do much, but then you but then you do
that with the with the bond auction and the treasury auction,
(25:42):
and it spiked. It spiked because the market actually was
starting to go up and then all of a sudden
boom and just cascade down mid morning.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
But as you see those reactions whether flowing into bonds,
out of bonds, money flowing to cash out of cash.
A lot of it is just based on sentiment, really,
because it's not even fundamental. It's just based on sentiment
of whether or not we'll see some sort of further
(26:11):
deal with different countries. So here's our caution from a strategy,
an investment perspective. I mean, I wouldn't be you know,
going all back in right now on stocks, especially tech stocks,
especially chip tech stocks or AI tech stocks, because any
(26:32):
negative news on tariffs and those prices that you paid
will not look very good. Now that being said, if
you follow some of our philosophical process for you know,
entering people's clients' money into the market by little pieces,
(26:53):
use the five percent rule that we use, and a
position or add on pullbacks. Yes, be in a position
to dollar cost average, So don't get greedy. Here is
I guess the main thing that we're saying, and.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I think you make it. You make an important point
and we've talked about it before another episode.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Wait did you say that again? Go ahead to say
that again. I just want to hear that.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
I just forgot what I said.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
You know something about you make an important point.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Which is which is you were starting to talk about it.
But I want to emphasize on it is that this
a lot of what's going on, what initially drove this
is all news driven and so this is very much
controlled and it's still being controlled, but it doesn't doesn't.
But the tough part to finesse is, Okay, how long
(27:46):
do you have control over this until before it breaks?
Something breaks, and then you lose control. And the control
that I'm talking about is what started all this was
all the tariff situation in the trade war and what
have you, and then the ninety day delay. So we've
seen the gyration of the markets, you know, hit a peek,
then went down, markets crash and just sase, we're down
(28:07):
twenty plus percent. Then the ninety days delay kicked in
and now the markets you know, have recovered, not back
to their all time highs, but they've recovered quite a bit.
And you know, if tomorrow something comes out where you know,
the the tariff negotiations are not doing as well, then
you can probably bet that we'll see the markets start
drawing down from that. And it's back and forth. So
(28:28):
it's very much controlled around that narrative. But this ninety
day process I think is very important that there's enough
meaningful deals in my hope, our hope is that there's
enough meaningful deals done during this you know, the the
forty five days left of the first ninety day, the
second ninety day, which we have a little more time
is with directly with China, but that there's enough meaningful
(28:51):
deals done or negotiations done to lower the bar permanently,
not to kick the can down the road and have
a delay, because then if not, that's where starts to
really become a problem, because then we already are in
a higher interest rate environment, right, and then if we
can't have certainty around the tariffs or potentially the thought
(29:12):
of going back to more elevated tariffs, that's going to
cause a lot of volatile in the market and we'll
see more down swing and pull back.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
So the real good news is is there's definitely investments
outside of stocks which can actually help you come back
some of this, reduce your volatility, reduce your risk, yet
still make money to keep up with inflation or really
outpace inflation. And let's dive back in because economically there's
(29:42):
some really good things happening obviously, just you know, rehashing
a little bit. Getting the tax bill you know, passed
in the House. That puts us in the time frame
that you know, Republicans have committed to, which is passing
this thing and in it signed by the president, you know,
(30:02):
before summer's end, and that's looking to happen probably before
July fourth, and I think that will be a huge
lift for the economy obviously everything that comes within that
tax bill, But the biggest threats to the markets, as
we were discussing, is really you know, not inking more
(30:24):
deals in tariffs and letting some of these ninety day
delays expire. And so that's where true diversification of your
portfolio really comes in. Don't be betting all on stocks
right now.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
Now.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
I shouldn't just say make that a blanket statement. I mean,
I guess if you're you know, in your twenties or thirties,
or maybe even in your forties, and you got a
time horizon of ten years or more, then sure, having
one hundred percent stock portfolio is going to be fine.
But I still wouldn't just you know, buyos to buy
(31:00):
stocks here. I would let ride what you have and
then look to buy on dips that we were recommending
or add to things that you already have. So certainly,
you know there's like I said, there's goods badness.
Speaker 3 (31:18):
Also cryptocurrency yeah, hit over one hundred and eleven thousand.
Do you see that?
Speaker 2 (31:22):
The bitcoin yeap hit one hundred yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:25):
And and there's you know, there's a there's a beat
a bitcoin uh etf. There's several that are also have
options written against them that I really like. Yeah, and
so if you want to learn more about that, actually
give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. This is a way to get
into bitcoin without actually you know, going through an exchange
(31:49):
where you're buying direct whatever that coin or token or
blockchain technology is. This is buying a fun that has
way more recess resource horses and then you even better,
they're writing options against that to create you know, dividends
in income that buying coins don't pay at all, and
(32:10):
it's double digit potentially. So to learn more about that,
and I didn't even think I was going to mention that,
but called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. So,
but getting back to the good news, the bad news,
the pitfall good good that's really what it is. It
(32:30):
is the good, the bad, and the ugly. We think,
if you have the right portfolio this year, it could
be good. If you have the wrong portfolio, it could
be bad too ugly. And for example, we were talking
about a couple of retail stocks and a health health.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Insurance stock, United Healthcare, all.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Over the place the last couple of weeks. Just even
though they didn't miss you know, revenue or consumer spending
was still good. Just the conversation of them guiding that, oh,
tears are going to take a chunk out of our profits.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
And you saw Target and Walmart.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Target and Walmart you know, swing wildly.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Well, United Healthcare was swung wildly, and drug the Dow
Jones down, well, that's from the CEO. And then also
some of the fraud I forgot I had mentioned it
last time.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
But oh potential medicare so yeah, I mean now that
that you can't do anything about it. It doesn't matter
if you're in a good market or bad market. If
there's any irregularities like they usually like to call them,
then then the stock is you know, the dropping.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
But that's important because you have instances and circumstances where
it's you know, fundamental, fundamentally with a with a company
that you own, or it could be something macro which
is just more something widespread on the economy of the market, Yeah, exactly,
or it could be specific to the United Healthcare And
(34:00):
that's why we use the five percent rule, because you
don't want to have a big chunk, right, I mean,
imagine you had twenty or twenty five percent of your
portfolio and United Healthcare.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, oh yeah, you would be right. Yeah yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
And we've seen that before.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Yeah, absolutely, And so it's it's it's it is dollar
cost averaging, it's five percent rule, but it's really having
a true custom asset allocation and a true custom investment
portfolio that's based on your plans, goals, your situation, how
(34:37):
that situation changes. And that's where we're really give a
lot of value to our clients is before we start
building any portfolio, we're going to know exactly what makes
the best sense for you and gives you the most
confidence and comfort for the types of investments that are
(34:58):
in your portfolio. And then on an active basis, we
take a look at those investments that our clients have
and will add to them, or get out of them,
or put new investments in your portfolios, and we also
love things that pay dividends and interest. If you don't
(35:18):
have high income, whether it's equity income, bond income, alternative
income in your portfolio, you're missing out on a huge
way to make money on your money this year, even
if your investments stay flat. I mean well and literally
double digit returns that you can get. And keep in
(35:42):
mind that there is no investment that can guarantee one
hundred percent your You can't lose money, and you're going
to do nothing but you to make money.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
You can make money every year.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
Every company could go out of business, no matter how
big they are. I remember talking. You know, you can
lose money on the United States Treasury, for example. I
know it's hard stressing me out, but my point is
is that's where the things that we do, and that's
where our thirty year experience for me and almost twenty
(36:16):
year experience for you come in to not make these
rookie mistakes that many advisors and many many clients still
routinely make. I mean, it's it's mind boggling.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yeah. And I think you know you bring up a
point the dividend dividend payers, which typically are you know,
the more value versus growth oriented stock names. And we're
seeing we could see and who knows, we'll see how
it develops, but it looks like values starting to come
back up. And value was the play. I don't know
if you remember Value line was a right investment. It does,
(36:54):
it does been around for decades, and they came out
with and they were, you know, focusing on finding value
stocks right and putting together and you have put and
they outpaced the market, you know, sm P five hundred
for years. But part of the reason why is because
value was the play, especially after dot Com, because dot
(37:15):
Com was real quickly.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
You can just define a value stock. It's something that's
trading at a discount to its earnings or or its
financials more simply, and that's what a value stock is,
especially ones that pay dividends and are trading at a
discount to their earnings, versus a growth stock that.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
Like the like the tech stocks that everybody here's.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
Right, it might not be paying dividends and might be
trading at a premium to its earnings. And so it
just thought we should clarify whatever.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Good good point and so after so after dot Com, right,
because dot Com during that era was all about growth
stocks and then paying a high multiple for for what
you get, and it was just up and up an up,
and then when dot Com crashed, value was the play.
And then after two thousand and eight, it just seemed
like growth took over. And growth has been the play
(38:09):
for a long time. But now we've we've gotten into,
you know, a little lofty levels that we've talked about
it last year in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four,
we saw it, and we saw a snippet of it
in twenty twenty In twenty twenty one, when we had
all those stimulus and we had all these mean stocks
and stay at home COVID stocks had just exploded right
(38:32):
and had high multiples. But it looks like, you know,
and it's not confirmed yet, but it looks like value
may be coming back. And so what does that mean.
It means that these stocks that have been to play
for these number of years that you're used to seeing
on you know, AI darlings and tech stocks, you know,
to just go after and chase those stocks and say, Okay,
there's a little bit of a pullback on the market,
(38:53):
I'm gonna jump in all these growth stocks with these
high multiples and it's going to take care of me.
Because it's done well for the past five years or
two years whatever, may not be the play you know,
for the next ten years, the next decade exactly.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
So what this all boils down to is that you
should come join us at our workshop in Conquered on
June fourth, which is a Wednesday from six to seven
thirty pm at the old Spaghetti Factory by calling nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. There will
show you our process in more detail. We'll show you
(39:27):
how we allocate people's friends. We'll show you an actual
allocation and a model portfolio, and how it's doing despite
all this stuff that we're talking about today, and how
it's you know, really solving for not knowing what to do,
I mean.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
Well and solving for you know, the biggest thing in
retirement is like, how do I solve for cash flow?
How do we take my asses that I've saved up
over over you know, the decades that I've been working
and now turn this thing into a paycheck every month
so I can survive and retireronment? Like, how do I
do that? The other part is, Okay, what if I
had a bunch of gross stocks, and now what do
I sell a portion every month? What if that month
(40:08):
isn't good like April April things were down by twenty
seven percent or more, the max seven was down by
thirty eight percent? Do you feel good about that? And
you have to go in and sell some of that
at that point in time. So those are some of
the things that we talk about us and you know,
as far as diving some into the details, but also
you know top level, which is, you know, the economy,
(40:30):
the market, most current events, kind of our thought process
of where things are at, showing you some data and
charts behind it of you know, what's going on in
the markets and economy, kind of the cycles of what
goes on in the market, economy, and hopefully our overall
goal to the least is to give you some value
that you leave there, not only with a full belly
(40:51):
from the old spaghetti factory.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
Nobody doesn't like the spaghetti factory food, by the way.
Speaker 3 (40:56):
I mean I think it's pretty I think it's pretty good.
I mean, I have my biases because I'm Italian. It's
not going to be it's not going to be my
grandmother's oh right course, But but but Aside from that
is what we'd like to try and provide is just
that you leave there with some valuable information that you
can start asking questions about your own situation and maybe
(41:17):
help you to guide you further and also, you know,
set up a one on one so we can further
dive into your specific needs situation. The biggest thing that
we find sometimes is people don't even have a plan. Yeah,
so they don't even know whether, they don't even know
where they're going. They have all these assets, have a
few different assets, you know, spread across a few different
brokerage accounts and firms, but you know, they don't even
(41:39):
know my own track? Am I off track? Do I
need to change things around? You need to make some
adjustments And that's where we dive into the one on
one meetings afterwards, UH to discover those.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
So let me just put it simply. If you're retired,
we're about to retire, and you have a million dollar
net worth and you don't have a written plan that's
been reviewed, or if you don't have a simple you know,
trust and wills and healthcare directives, you absolutely should attend this.
(42:12):
Or if you have more than two hundred and fifty
thousand in mutual funds. You absolutely should attend our workshop
on June fourth at the Old Spaghetti Factory in Conquered
from six to seven thirty PM called nine one, six
ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Again that numbers nine
(42:35):
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Well, I hope
you enjoyed the show. You've been listening to John Scambray
and just have Wisconsin the wise money guys. Have a
wonderful weekend and come back or come to our seminar.
Speaker 3 (42:50):
And we'll see you real soon. Have a great one.
Doc to you next week
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm your
co host John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner
Sepi Visconti, and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize
in helping people who are retired or about to retire
manage their money. Now we say that, but will quite
frankly help anybody who has money manage their money. But
our specialty and majority of our clients are retired, because
(00:35):
let's face it, that's who has the money these days, and.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
So there's a lot more people retiring.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
And a lot more of the baby boomers who are
still retiring by the thousands every day. But Giuseppe and I,
as as long time highly experienced investment experts, have really
dedicated our career to helping people who are retire, you know,
not outlive their money. I would say that's our main goal,
(01:03):
wouldn't you.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
And so to do that, first of all, you got
to be a fiduciary, which we are Secondly, Chuck, you've
got to have a long term understanding of the types
of situations that families face over the years throughout retirement.
And then third or third Lee, people are living a
(01:25):
lot longer so and they're living in circumstances where everything
cost more and is projected to cost a lot more.
So they as a just a main goal keeping up
with inflation and helping people do that has never been
more meaningful than it is right now. When interest rates
(01:47):
were really high prior to you know, two thousand and six,
if you didn't have any debt, you could you could
outpace inflation because inflation's average ten year rate was about
one and a half.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Oh no, average previous to two thousand and eight. The
inflation rate that most planners users around three percent, right,
But you can go out and get bonds, you know,
fixed income at like four percent or higher than the
inflation rate, which was conservative. You know. Then after two
thousand and eight, obviously it just changed the whole.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
And that's where that decade averaged about one and a
half percent. But now based on how everything has spiked
up in cost, especially insurance, utilities, gas, healthcare, food, you know,
what a million dollars used to buy twenty years ago,
(02:41):
and what used to be an adequate amount to supplement
your retirement just isn't the case anymore now when you
work with folks like Giuseppe and I, having a million
dollars can certainly make life easier or more. And often
we find that people aren't getting everything out of their
(03:04):
portfolio that they should be. In fact, many many times
we find that people have two hundred and fifty thousand,
five hundred thousand, a million or more in mutual funds,
And you really should have a custom portfolio, wouldn't you agree?
At least when you have two hundred and fifty thousand
or more, I mean five hundred is great, two hundred
(03:25):
and fifty thousand or more, you pretty much shouldn't have
mutual fund.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Well, you could pretty much create your own mutual fund
if you have two hundred and fifty thousand or more,
so you don't have to rely on But the thing is,
it just takes it takes time knowledge, you know, an
effort to put that together. And you know, today's world
is all about convenience, right and simplicity, and you know,
(03:48):
sometimes there's too much information. So if somebody would go
out there and search the internet. And even with with
the world of AI, right, they think, oh well, AI,
you know now can start doing things. But some of
the data that you get from AI is not correct,
or it could be a little outdated or and so
how do you decipher from that? And so that's where
we really come in is we put the time effort
(04:10):
and have spent time and education on top of that
to to really find the best ways to create a
diversified portfolio and create more of your own mutual fund
instead of relying on other big names out.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
There custom mutual fund actively managed versus passively you know,
forgotten about, which is a great way to put what
most people do when they have mutual funds or an
advisor who puts them all in mutual funds. They tend
to never change, even though their situation might be changing,
or the world around them has has changed drastically like
(04:51):
it has now.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
And so like the Moody's downgrade, yeah right, yeah exactly,
I mean, you know, surprisingly and to go ahead, get
sidetracked a little bit.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
I'm surprised the Moody's down grade didn't spike up interest rates,
you know higher quite frankly.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Well, they the interest rates spiked after the bond auction
took place on Wednesday, But you know, when when the
announcement was made, I thought there was going to be
more volatility Monday Tuesday, and it was. It was more
of a nothing burger.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yeah, I mean, we were hovering around four to four
and the ten year treasury and then I think the
highest we hit despite the Moody's down grade, despite the auction,
was about four to six, and now we've trimmed back
down to about four or five in the ten year treasury.
Why is that important? Well, because you know, safety, interest rates,
(05:47):
riskless returns kind of dictate where the economy is from
a from a especially from an investment perspective, but more
importantly from a borrowing perspect you know, higher rates lead
to typically a slower economy. Lower rates lead to a
(06:07):
growth economy. And so the fact that rates didn't like
go through the roof based on the downgrade just shows
you how skeptical people are of news really or news
driven markets, and well.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
And how resilient the market is so far. You know,
I think it's it's it's teetering, and the ten year
is really looked upon, and you know we got up
to five percent, and the tenure the thirty year got
above five percent. I think it got to like five
point one, yeah, and so that that rattled the markets.
But that was on Wednesday, and we saw the markets
come down one and a half to you know, just
(06:45):
one hundred two percent, depending on the induscry that you tracked.
So it'll be interesting to see how how that develops,
if that was just kind of a one off, or
or if there's more to come from it. But very
surprised on how resilient the market was and how it
just really shrugged off, you know, initially, and the initial
impact after the news came out.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
What amazes me, and I have some good news after
I make this statement about what amazes me is that
people with money, stubbornly often don't don't do anything based
on you know, what's going on. And quite frankly, we
also see many times that people have way too much
(07:26):
risk in their portfolio. And and when we start getting
a good market, which we had a great market at
the beginning of the year, then we had two months
of a dive literally a.
Speaker 3 (07:40):
Crash dive that was like a water slide. Yeah, it
was a.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Crash by definition standards more than twenty percent the S
and P and the Nasdaq went down, and then when
they see their portfolios go down drastically, that's when they,
you know, start paying changing.
Speaker 3 (07:56):
They want to make changes and withdrawal.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
Money and and lock in losses. And here we we
routinely give people tips and tools to not panic, not
let them move emotions rule their their strategy. But nevertheless,
if you're not going to put in the time effort research,
(08:19):
you know, the full time role of being an investment
expert into managing your own money, you absolutely should give
us a call at nine one six nine six seven
thirty five hundred. And then the good news is is
that we're a little less than two weeks away from
(08:41):
our June fourth Wednesday from six to seven thirty pm
at the old spaghetti Factory in Conquered called nine one
six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. So if you're
a retiree and you have mutual funds, or you're somebody
who's about to retire and you have two hundred and
(09:01):
fifty thousand or more that you're concerned about, you definitely
want to attend because whether you decide to go to
the next step, which would be a no obligation consultation
with us or not. I guarantee you'll walk away with
some information that can help you make investment decisions with
your portfolio. And the real exciting news is we will
(09:25):
have officially launched our partnership with Farther, which will allow
us to help people with multiple types of accounts. So
whether you're already Schwab, or you're already Fidelity or I'm
even excited to say whether you're Goldman, Sachs, Pershing, bny
(09:47):
mellon any account, Interactive Brokers, any account with any of those,
you can actually hire us and try our services, which
are fee based, fiduciary based, planning based without changing a
single thing, without moving your account, you know, without So.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
That's convenient, It makes it makes it much much simpler.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Yeah, So, by all means, come to that seminar from
six to seven thirty pm on June fourth, Wednesday at
the old Spaghetti Factory in Conquered and we were basically
about to dive into, you know, some of the things
going on. But one of the biggest things that just
(10:34):
happened this last week is the passing of the tax bill,
a big, beautiful bill, as Trump labeled it in the House,
which is huge because it's actually following, you know, the
the process that that a new bill, new legislation, especially
budget legislation coming out of Congress, has not followed in
(10:59):
more more than eight years. And that's under the previous administration,
and then even during the Trump years, you know, a
Democrat controlled House, they haven't. They haven't followed the process
of passing a budget, like I said, in eight years.
So this is the first time that will will follow
(11:23):
the process. It went through the House, it was negotiated
through all committees, so nobody can say it wasn't transparent.
There wasn't an opportunity to have your two cents versus.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
Who did the negotiations? Was it Joe Pesci?
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Yeah, that it wasn't Joe Pesci. But if you think
about it, during the Nancy Pelosi reign, she would say
as idiotic as oh, we have to pass the bill
to see what's in it. Those were her famous words
that go, well, why would we have you? What is
your role if you don't and read any of the
(12:01):
legislation that you actually pass, remember especially the Obamacare, nobody
actually read the bill that that Democrats.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
Well, now now there's AI. So yeah, if you're if
you're if you're lazy, you could just put through the
air and say, hey, point out this, that and the
other thing whatever, and we'll go search for it.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
And look what that did for us because that bill
did not go through any committee review, no, no, no negotiations.
But whatsoever Obamacare. Look what's happened to our healthcare? We
have the worst healthcare in the world and we have
the most expensive healthcare in the world because of you
know what Democrats did with Obamacare and ramming that down
(12:45):
through the throats of taxpayers and calling it a healthcare bill.
It wasn't a healthcare bill. It was a regulation and
insurance bill because it had nothing to do with improving
health care for for.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
For our health as the US health has actually declined,
right and so that's what they're they're focusing on right now.
But back to the beautiful, big, beautiful, big beautiful bill.
Just for some of those that don't I follow a
little bit of it. I know you follow a lot
more of that than I do. What are What would
you say is some of the highlights that are are
(13:21):
are great, that's beautiful, and maybe some of the things
that might might not be as beautiful.
Speaker 2 (13:27):
The big eies that were contentious, by the way, is
salt so now in California, New York State, in local taxes,
state and local taxes, they increase the deduction for individuals
joint filers had a households no to forty wow, so
it went from ten thousand to forty thousand. The other
(13:49):
big thing is passed through a business expenditures increased for
small businesses to owners of those companies. And on top
of that, huge regulatory cuts. More so than any bill
which normally is adding regulation is adding rules, this actually
(14:11):
cuts regulations. And then on top of that, getting illegal
aliens come on out of Medicaid, out of Social Security.
Those were that's the biggest cuts that attributed to the
one trillion dollars that they're going to try to save.
Even more so, now it goes to the Senate and
the Senate will have their two cents, the Senators to
(14:33):
mark it up and send it back to the House
and we'll probably see even greater cuts. Because the goal
was to get the cuts to about two trillion over
ten years, and basically what I heard and read the
cuts right now stand in about one trillion over ten years,
which doesn't even get us if I have a gripe
(14:54):
about it, it doesn't even get us to pre COVID
spending levels. Even with the one trillion dollars in cuts.
We really needed two three more trillion or more in
cuts just to be pre COVID from a government spending perspective. So,
you know, but the goods we've.
Speaker 3 (15:14):
Gotten too used to the spendings pre we've been on
for the past few years. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
But the good news is is they didn't raise the
top marginal rate on.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Taxes because they were considering that.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
Yep, it's staying at thirty six point nine. So the
people who actually feed the economy, that make hundreds of
thousands of dollars a year and consume everything, that's where
a lot of tax revenue comes from, they're not being penalized.
And like I said, the massive benefit is small salts
going up, but small business small business owners are going
(15:50):
to have greater deductibility and that's just gigantic and super
growthy as they like to say. Now, didn't even know
that was a word.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Yeah, Kudlow's been saying for a long time.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Yeah, but they're they're saying this, and Cudlow likes it.
By the way, you know, like any legislation coming out
of Washington, you're never going to get everything that you want.
You know, there's just no such thing. I mean, politicians
just you know, they fear their re election uh potential,
(16:23):
more than they want to do the right thing for
American citizens. Now that they'll do partially the right thing.
And this is both sides. This is this is a
political that's just the nature of the beast. You know,
for every one person that you're making happy, on the
other side, you're making somebody unhappy. And so that's the
(16:45):
balance of being a politician. So you're never going to
get what you want in a bill completely.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
To satisfy everybody's needs, to satisfy everybody but small businesses,
because the small businesses have been a long pack exactly
lifeblood of the and they've been heavily impacted with COVID,
then had some relief with all the stimulus, then got
impacted again by the high inflation in twenty twenty two,
(17:12):
and still impacted. Then have maybe a little bit of
relief because we had pretty good markets in razilm markets
in twenty three and twenty four and then now this year,
doesn't matter what side they're on, right, they're trying to
figure out this whole tariff narrative. And I know if
I've talked to you know, one of our clients who's
a small business owner has been a small business owner
for three four decades now in the local area, and
(17:34):
had a brief conversation of how he's been impacted in
his business, and he says, so far, not a whole
lot has He's had to raise his prices and some
product lines maybe five percent, maybe ten percent, And the
vendors right now from what he's seeing as the vendors
right now, they're they're raising a little bit. But what
they're doing is they're trying to they're taking a hit
(17:55):
because they're trying to see how things unfold. Right. And
so I think as some of this uncertainty becomes more certain, right,
and we gain more certainty of houses whole tariff situation
gonna take place and the goods that are imported, right,
how much they're gonna have to raise prices or how
much am I willing to eat of it? And if
(18:16):
we can get some relief where small businesses have bigger
write offs, right, and can keep more of their tax dollars.
That's gonna that's gonna help offset.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
All ends up driving more tax revenue, because growth of
the economy actually drives tax revenue, you know, raising interest rates,
increasing regulation, increasing taxes actually decreases tax report revenue for medicare,
(18:45):
for self security, for the military, you know, so it's
just the opposite. The goal is to do things like
you just said that are gonna help people have more
money left over, which means they'll spend more money, which
means we'll have more growth of the economy, which puts
actually more revenue into the coffers of the United States
(19:08):
government to really pay for the defense and maintain you know,
our way of life.
Speaker 3 (19:14):
As long as they curb they're spending government.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
That's the problem. You know, if you think too our
back a couple of weeks ago to our first trust
conference that we attended, you know, the goal is is
just to keep the growth rate higher than the increase
in the debt. And if you can do that, then
you never really have to pay down the debt. I mean,
(19:38):
that's the point that Westberry was making, is that as
long as you can sustain a growth rate above the
growth rate of the debt.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
And if I'm racking up credit card bills, getting a
bunch of loans and that starts to exceed my income
and my income doesn't go I don't find ways to
have my income increase along with it, I'm going to
start getting into trouble exactly right. And so.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
You know, putting that all together, what this all means
is you have to be paying attention. You know what
did well in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty three,
like the AI sector of stocks, is it necessarily where
you're going to make money in the rest of twenty
(20:22):
five or twenty six.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Although that has been really the catalyst driving the market downswing,
oh as well as the chip news as well as
the recovery. It has broadened out, but I've been seeing
that it still has a dominance in the market right
and in the indusices itself. But yeah, diversification and not
(20:46):
focusing on just some names to chase and say, oh,
I didn't have the opportunity in twenty three and twenty four.
I didn't ride that wave in XYZ stock or some
AI stock, and now's the time to buy into it.
And I'm just going to focus all on that this
is a times take advantage of what is taking place
in the overall economy. Like we've talked about high interest
rates and what can you do with that that you
(21:07):
can't do if we get into a lower interest ring
environment at some point.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
If you want to give us a call and learn
more about ways that we can help you with your portfolio,
or to register for our seminar on June fourth and
conquered at the old spaghetti factory called nine one six
ninety six, seven thirty five hundred, nine one six ninety six,
seven thirty five hundred. You know, I guess at the
beginning of the year, we were talking tailwinds, headwinds, and
(21:35):
there's still headwinds. I mean, I get that.
Speaker 3 (21:39):
You know, the market hit.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Its highs, all time highs and Fedruary, then the S
and P, Nasdaq and Dow crashed in March and April.
And now we've recovered most of that crash. But the
stuff that caused the crash or crash is, let's say,
is still out there. And what I'm talking about is
(22:03):
the delay in tariffs, and so what's coming up? I mean,
where are we in the delay in tariffs? Because if
we don't inc more deals like obviously we inked one
direct with the UK. Yeah, we've inked deals with you know,
Katar and Saudi Arabia and some others.
Speaker 3 (22:24):
But there's been talks on India. I don't think there's that.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
I don't think we've officially inked India. We inked Vietnam.
I'm pretty sure.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
EU they came out with something as far as like
a kind of a what do they say that term
cares about?
Speaker 4 (22:41):
The EU controls nothing. By the way, what are you
talking about? We we you and I love the cars
that come.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Out of the.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
But if you think about the EU, not to get
us to sidetracked, but the EU actually is more like
a central banking uh committee, because they don't they don't
have rain over about Yeah, you know, let's think of
the chemus individual countries.
Speaker 3 (23:10):
Yeah, well, Italy, Italy has has come out at the
Prime Minister of Italy's come out and she said, I
think Georgia Maloney, I.
Speaker 4 (23:21):
Think it's your last name. Maybe it's my cousin Maloney,
Georgia Bloney. Are you hungry?
Speaker 3 (23:26):
Yes I am. But she's she had pretty constructive talks
with Trump and trying to figure out some sort of
deal and breaking away and not having to wait for
the EU as a whole. I know, the latest thing
that's come out as you talked about lobster. Now, yeah,
I don't know, I don't know. I don't know how
much that's going to move the needle of US, you know,
(23:47):
exporting our lobster to remove tariffs on lobster. Like you
came out and said, Okay, okay, America, Uh, we're going
to uh, we're going to work with you. Okay, how
about this, how about your lobster. We're going to import
your lobster right now? What are you going to come back? Okay,
now it's your turn in negotiator, Like.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
It's just dumb.
Speaker 3 (24:08):
Yeah, I don't know how much I moves it, but
at least it's starting somewhere. And going back to original question.
You know, I looked up because we were wondering like
how much how many days left of the ninety day
delay the initial ninety day delay that took place last month.
I believe it was in fact April tenth of last month,
(24:28):
which really turned the markets around, right, because the market
bottomed April eighth, and then the news came out that
there was going to be a delay, and then that
delay took place, and that we have now about forty
five days left.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
And if you think about it, last week we had
a glimpse of what would happen if the tariff conversation
doesn't continue being positive in any way, shape or form.
There was just some sensationalism of of you know, the
chip fight between China and the US and the fact
(25:05):
that the US is blocking you know, companies, our companies
that make chips from selling our best stuff to China,
and the market, you know, had a something down one
two per day.
Speaker 3 (25:20):
A lot of that, well, I think I think that's
more so of the the the bond auction that took
place on Wednesday and they sold like sixteen billion dollars
of treasury and we had the Moodi's which happened, you know,
and was announced and our first effective market day was Monday.
Didn't do much, but then you but then you do
that with the with the bond auction and the treasury auction,
(25:42):
and it spiked. It spiked because the market actually was
starting to go up and then all of a sudden
boom and just cascade down mid morning.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
But as you see those reactions whether flowing into bonds,
out of bonds, money flowing to cash out of cash.
A lot of it is just based on sentiment, really,
because it's not even fundamental. It's just based on sentiment
of whether or not we'll see some sort of further
(26:11):
deal with different countries. So here's our caution from a strategy,
an investment perspective. I mean, I wouldn't be you know,
going all back in right now on stocks, especially tech stocks,
especially chip tech stocks or AI tech stocks, because any
(26:32):
negative news on tariffs and those prices that you paid
will not look very good. Now that being said, if
you follow some of our philosophical process for you know,
entering people's clients' money into the market by little pieces,
(26:53):
use the five percent rule that we use, and a
position or add on pullbacks. Yes, be in a position
to dollar cost average, So don't get greedy. Here is
I guess the main thing that we're saying, and.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
I think you make it. You make an important point
and we've talked about it before another episode.
Speaker 2 (27:14):
Wait did you say that again? Go ahead to say
that again. I just want to hear that.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
I just forgot what I said.
Speaker 2 (27:19):
You know something about you make an important point.
Speaker 3 (27:23):
Which is which is you were starting to talk about it.
But I want to emphasize on it is that this
a lot of what's going on, what initially drove this
is all news driven and so this is very much
controlled and it's still being controlled, but it doesn't doesn't.
But the tough part to finesse is, Okay, how long
(27:46):
do you have control over this until before it breaks?
Something breaks, and then you lose control. And the control
that I'm talking about is what started all this was
all the tariff situation in the trade war and what
have you, and then the ninety day delay. So we've
seen the gyration of the markets, you know, hit a peek,
then went down, markets crash and just sase, we're down
(28:07):
twenty plus percent. Then the ninety days delay kicked in
and now the markets you know, have recovered, not back
to their all time highs, but they've recovered quite a bit.
And you know, if tomorrow something comes out where you know,
the the tariff negotiations are not doing as well, then
you can probably bet that we'll see the markets start
drawing down from that. And it's back and forth. So
(28:28):
it's very much controlled around that narrative. But this ninety
day process I think is very important that there's enough
meaningful deals in my hope, our hope is that there's
enough meaningful deals done during this you know, the the
forty five days left of the first ninety day, the
second ninety day, which we have a little more time
is with directly with China, but that there's enough meaningful
(28:51):
deals done or negotiations done to lower the bar permanently,
not to kick the can down the road and have
a delay, because then if not, that's where starts to
really become a problem, because then we already are in
a higher interest rate environment, right, and then if we
can't have certainty around the tariffs or potentially the thought
(29:12):
of going back to more elevated tariffs, that's going to
cause a lot of volatile in the market and we'll
see more down swing and pull back.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
So the real good news is is there's definitely investments
outside of stocks which can actually help you come back
some of this, reduce your volatility, reduce your risk, yet
still make money to keep up with inflation or really
outpace inflation. And let's dive back in because economically there's
(29:42):
some really good things happening obviously, just you know, rehashing
a little bit. Getting the tax bill you know, passed
in the House. That puts us in the time frame
that you know, Republicans have committed to, which is passing
this thing and in it signed by the president, you know,
(30:02):
before summer's end, and that's looking to happen probably before
July fourth, and I think that will be a huge
lift for the economy obviously everything that comes within that
tax bill, But the biggest threats to the markets, as
we were discussing, is really you know, not inking more
(30:24):
deals in tariffs and letting some of these ninety day
delays expire. And so that's where true diversification of your
portfolio really comes in. Don't be betting all on stocks
right now.
Speaker 3 (30:39):
Now.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
I shouldn't just say make that a blanket statement. I mean,
I guess if you're you know, in your twenties or thirties,
or maybe even in your forties, and you got a
time horizon of ten years or more, then sure, having
one hundred percent stock portfolio is going to be fine.
But I still wouldn't just you know, buyos to buy
(31:00):
stocks here. I would let ride what you have and
then look to buy on dips that we were recommending
or add to things that you already have. So certainly,
you know there's like I said, there's goods badness.
Speaker 3 (31:18):
Also cryptocurrency yeah, hit over one hundred and eleven thousand.
Do you see that?
Speaker 2 (31:22):
The bitcoin yeap hit one hundred yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (31:25):
And and there's you know, there's a there's a beat
a bitcoin uh etf. There's several that are also have
options written against them that I really like. Yeah, and
so if you want to learn more about that, actually
give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. This is a way to get
into bitcoin without actually you know, going through an exchange
(31:49):
where you're buying direct whatever that coin or token or
blockchain technology is. This is buying a fun that has
way more recess resource horses and then you even better,
they're writing options against that to create you know, dividends
in income that buying coins don't pay at all, and
(32:10):
it's double digit potentially. So to learn more about that,
and I didn't even think I was going to mention that,
but called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. So,
but getting back to the good news, the bad news,
the pitfall good good that's really what it is. It
(32:30):
is the good, the bad, and the ugly. We think,
if you have the right portfolio this year, it could
be good. If you have the wrong portfolio, it could
be bad too ugly. And for example, we were talking
about a couple of retail stocks and a health health.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
Insurance stock, United Healthcare, all.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Over the place the last couple of weeks. Just even
though they didn't miss you know, revenue or consumer spending
was still good. Just the conversation of them guiding that, oh,
tears are going to take a chunk out of our profits.
Speaker 3 (33:03):
And you saw Target and Walmart.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Target and Walmart you know, swing wildly.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Well, United Healthcare was swung wildly, and drug the Dow
Jones down, well, that's from the CEO. And then also
some of the fraud I forgot I had mentioned it
last time.
Speaker 2 (33:21):
But oh potential medicare so yeah, I mean now that
that you can't do anything about it. It doesn't matter
if you're in a good market or bad market. If
there's any irregularities like they usually like to call them,
then then the stock is you know, the dropping.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
But that's important because you have instances and circumstances where
it's you know, fundamental, fundamentally with a with a company
that you own, or it could be something macro which
is just more something widespread on the economy of the market, Yeah, exactly,
or it could be specific to the United Healthcare And
(34:00):
that's why we use the five percent rule, because you
don't want to have a big chunk, right, I mean,
imagine you had twenty or twenty five percent of your
portfolio and United Healthcare.
Speaker 2 (34:11):
Yeah, oh yeah, you would be right. Yeah yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
And we've seen that before.
Speaker 2 (34:16):
Yeah, absolutely, And so it's it's it's it is dollar
cost averaging, it's five percent rule, but it's really having
a true custom asset allocation and a true custom investment
portfolio that's based on your plans, goals, your situation, how
(34:37):
that situation changes. And that's where we're really give a
lot of value to our clients is before we start
building any portfolio, we're going to know exactly what makes
the best sense for you and gives you the most
confidence and comfort for the types of investments that are
(34:58):
in your portfolio. And then on an active basis, we
take a look at those investments that our clients have
and will add to them, or get out of them,
or put new investments in your portfolios, and we also
love things that pay dividends and interest. If you don't
(35:18):
have high income, whether it's equity income, bond income, alternative
income in your portfolio, you're missing out on a huge
way to make money on your money this year, even
if your investments stay flat. I mean well and literally
double digit returns that you can get. And keep in
(35:42):
mind that there is no investment that can guarantee one
hundred percent your You can't lose money, and you're going
to do nothing but you to make money.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
You can make money every year.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
Every company could go out of business, no matter how
big they are. I remember talking. You know, you can
lose money on the United States Treasury, for example. I
know it's hard stressing me out, but my point is
is that's where the things that we do, and that's
where our thirty year experience for me and almost twenty
(36:16):
year experience for you come in to not make these
rookie mistakes that many advisors and many many clients still
routinely make. I mean, it's it's mind boggling.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yeah. And I think you know you bring up a
point the dividend dividend payers, which typically are you know,
the more value versus growth oriented stock names. And we're
seeing we could see and who knows, we'll see how
it develops, but it looks like values starting to come
back up. And value was the play. I don't know
if you remember Value line was a right investment. It does,
(36:54):
it does been around for decades, and they came out
with and they were, you know, focusing on finding value
stocks right and putting together and you have put and
they outpaced the market, you know, sm P five hundred
for years. But part of the reason why is because
value was the play, especially after dot Com, because dot
(37:15):
Com was real quickly.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
You can just define a value stock. It's something that's
trading at a discount to its earnings or or its
financials more simply, and that's what a value stock is,
especially ones that pay dividends and are trading at a
discount to their earnings, versus a growth stock that.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
Like the like the tech stocks that everybody here's.
Speaker 2 (37:38):
Right, it might not be paying dividends and might be
trading at a premium to its earnings. And so it
just thought we should clarify whatever.
Speaker 3 (37:46):
Good good point and so after so after dot Com, right,
because dot Com during that era was all about growth
stocks and then paying a high multiple for for what
you get, and it was just up and up an up,
and then when dot Com crashed, value was the play.
And then after two thousand and eight, it just seemed
like growth took over. And growth has been the play
(38:09):
for a long time. But now we've we've gotten into,
you know, a little lofty levels that we've talked about
it last year in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four,
we saw it, and we saw a snippet of it
in twenty twenty In twenty twenty one, when we had
all those stimulus and we had all these mean stocks
and stay at home COVID stocks had just exploded right
(38:32):
and had high multiples. But it looks like, you know,
and it's not confirmed yet, but it looks like value
may be coming back. And so what does that mean.
It means that these stocks that have been to play
for these number of years that you're used to seeing
on you know, AI darlings and tech stocks, you know,
to just go after and chase those stocks and say, Okay,
there's a little bit of a pullback on the market,
(38:53):
I'm gonna jump in all these growth stocks with these
high multiples and it's going to take care of me.
Because it's done well for the past five years or
two years whatever, may not be the play you know,
for the next ten years, the next decade exactly.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
So what this all boils down to is that you
should come join us at our workshop in Conquered on
June fourth, which is a Wednesday from six to seven
thirty pm at the old Spaghetti Factory by calling nine
one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. There will
show you our process in more detail. We'll show you
(39:27):
how we allocate people's friends. We'll show you an actual
allocation and a model portfolio, and how it's doing despite
all this stuff that we're talking about today, and how
it's you know, really solving for not knowing what to do,
I mean.
Speaker 3 (39:47):
Well and solving for you know, the biggest thing in
retirement is like, how do I solve for cash flow?
How do we take my asses that I've saved up
over over you know, the decades that I've been working
and now turn this thing into a paycheck every month
so I can survive and retireronment? Like, how do I
do that? The other part is, Okay, what if I
had a bunch of gross stocks, and now what do
I sell a portion every month? What if that month
(40:08):
isn't good like April April things were down by twenty
seven percent or more, the max seven was down by
thirty eight percent? Do you feel good about that? And
you have to go in and sell some of that
at that point in time. So those are some of
the things that we talk about us and you know,
as far as diving some into the details, but also
you know top level, which is, you know, the economy,
(40:30):
the market, most current events, kind of our thought process
of where things are at, showing you some data and
charts behind it of you know, what's going on in
the markets and economy, kind of the cycles of what
goes on in the market, economy, and hopefully our overall
goal to the least is to give you some value
that you leave there, not only with a full belly
(40:51):
from the old spaghetti factory.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
Nobody doesn't like the spaghetti factory food, by the way.
Speaker 3 (40:56):
I mean I think it's pretty I think it's pretty good.
I mean, I have my biases because I'm Italian. It's
not going to be it's not going to be my
grandmother's oh right course, But but but Aside from that
is what we'd like to try and provide is just
that you leave there with some valuable information that you
can start asking questions about your own situation and maybe
(41:17):
help you to guide you further and also, you know,
set up a one on one so we can further
dive into your specific needs situation. The biggest thing that
we find sometimes is people don't even have a plan. Yeah,
so they don't even know whether, they don't even know
where they're going. They have all these assets, have a
few different assets, you know, spread across a few different
brokerage accounts and firms, but you know, they don't even
(41:39):
know my own track? Am I off track? Do I
need to change things around? You need to make some
adjustments And that's where we dive into the one on
one meetings afterwards, UH to discover those.
Speaker 2 (41:49):
So let me just put it simply. If you're retired,
we're about to retire, and you have a million dollar
net worth and you don't have a written plan that's
been reviewed, or if you don't have a simple you know,
trust and wills and healthcare directives, you absolutely should attend this.
(42:12):
Or if you have more than two hundred and fifty
thousand in mutual funds. You absolutely should attend our workshop
on June fourth at the Old Spaghetti Factory in Conquered
from six to seven thirty PM called nine one, six
ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Again that numbers nine
(42:35):
six ninety six, seven thirty five hundred. Well, I hope
you enjoyed the show. You've been listening to John Scambray
and just have Wisconsin the wise money guys. Have a
wonderful weekend and come back or come to our seminar.
Speaker 3 (42:50):
And we'll see you real soon. Have a great one.
Doc to you next week
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
Cardiac Cowboys
The heart was always off-limits to surgeons. Cutting into it spelled instant death for the patient. That is, until a ragtag group of doctors scattered across the Midwest and Texas decided to throw out the rule book. Working in makeshift laboratories and home garages, using medical devices made from scavenged machine parts and beer tubes, these men and women invented the field of open heart surgery. Odds are, someone you know is alive because of them. So why has history left them behind? Presented by Chris Pine, CARDIAC COWBOYS tells the gripping true story behind the birth of heart surgery, and the young, Greatest Generation doctors who made it happen. For years, they competed and feuded, racing to be the first, the best, and the most prolific. Some appeared on the cover of Time Magazine, operated on kings and advised presidents. Others ended up disgraced, penniless, and convicted of felonies. Together, they ignited a revolution in medicine, and changed the world.