October 3, 2024 • 42 mins
With the US Government spending $$ like crazy, there is bound to be debt accumulation and inflation. Hosts John and Giuseppe tell us why that is bad for your investments. Plus, the new retail spending numbers, your decreased buy power, and the importance of planning. The Wise Money Guys.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
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our website One Source WM dot com or call nine
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Speaker 2 (00:17):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm your
co host, John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner
just Happy Visconti, and we are certified portfolio Managers, which
means we are investment experts that absolutely thrive on helping
people who are retired, we're about to retire manage their money.
If you like our show and want to get a
hold of us for a no obligation consultation, call nine
(00:40):
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Let's start
the show by just a quick thank you and mention
of how good our last seminar of the year is.
At least we think it was good.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, Yeah, it was a good turnout. I had some
good participants, some good, good questions, Yeah, a little bit
of engagement in there.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Dozens of couples And the reality is what that tells
me is that people are concerned. Right, you come to
a workshop on investments and planning and and and you know,
discussing what you should do with your money based on
what's going on and what might go on when you
(01:23):
are concerned as well, and we always have very large
turnouts when you know people are concerned, and quite frankly,
they should be. I mean you look at obviously the
port strike, you know, the disaster in the in the
Gulf States, in the Southeast border states, and then obviously
(01:48):
the expanding war in the Middle East, the now never
ending war in Russia and Ukraine. And let me tell
you what that adds up to. That adds up to
spending that will continue to be at an astronomical rate
(02:09):
which will not allow prices to go down, which means
I am really really concerned that the central bank cut
too soon and that inflation is going to actually come
back worse.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Well, and we have a couple of events, one of
them you just mentioned the conflict, which depending on you know,
how how much this escalates, it's already driving the price
of oil up right, which is going to add to inflation.
Then we have the dock workers in the east to
the golf that have been on.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Strike and that will really take a huge bite out
of potential, you know, supply.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
Further driving up costs and rerouting, shipping and and what
have you. And that's going to drive up costs and
then the debt. I have some information, interesting data as
far as the dat interesting or scary. Yeah, pretty scary,
pretty scary, right, Yeah. So from you know, midweek, in
about three days, I think it was like Monday to
(03:18):
Wednesday or Monday Thursday or something like that, three hundred
and forty five billion an additional debt, which brought the
total debt, the US public debt to thirty five point
seven trillion. Okay, So since June of twenty twenty three, right,
so a little over a year ago, the debt has
(03:39):
increased by four trillion dollars and in that same period
of time, GDP one and a half trillion dollars, so
two point seven times almost three times the race.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
You know, when you figure out the ratio at the GBP, yep,
this is unsustainable. Folks. If you think that elections don't matter, now,
you might think election don't matter in California because it's
a one party state, but for president it still matters.
And the people that to support in Congress and in
(04:10):
the Senate really matter because we cannot continue. And it's
not just a perfect issue where you can say, oh,
if we vote Republican. You know, Republicans are more concerned
about the debt and deficits than Democrats. You actually have
to vote for conservatives, and most conservatives are under the
(04:34):
Republican flag. But not all Republicans are created equal. A
lot of Republicans are just as big as you know
as Democrats when it comes to tax and spend. In fact,
they've voted for every major stop gap, continuing resolution, omnibus
(04:56):
and just for money that we don't have and continue
to print and borrow, strapping it onto the backs of taxpayers.
And so it's crucial that you know what somebody's actual
fiscal policies are or fiscal beliefs are, because that's the
only thing that's going to save America. The other thing
(05:17):
is is you can't keep importing. Speaking of the disaster,
here's something that's just absolutely should tell you right off
the bat why illegal immigration and the stopping of illegal
immigration is so important because now you have this disaster
where FEMA is the first bucket right where FEMA is
(05:40):
the first bucket of money that you go to to
help Americans, to help American business owners, to help citizens
that pay taxes and have paid their dues. But guess
where a massive or the majority of FEMA money has
gone in the last couple of years. Not to our citizens,
(06:01):
not to our citizens, not to the victims of a
hurricane Helena. No, it went to.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Another role another they said, there's another hurricane. They say
is brewing.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Yeah. So I don't care if you're Democrat or Republican.
This is an American issue, an American financial issue, and
this show is a financial show. We cannot give our
money away to foreigners that don't contribute to our society.
In fact, you know, our raping and pillaging our society.
(06:32):
And now when our citizens need money, you know, from
FEMA and from some of the organizations that take tax
payer money for emergencies, just like the ones we're having.
And now there's no money.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Well no, no, but Kaumla said, all the all the victims
of the hurricane and flooding, they'll get seven hundred and
fifty dollars.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Each, seven hundred and fifty bucks. But they're giving tens
of thousands to each illegal alien that you know, I
know you did, but but it's.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Worth you know, that's how Sadurday is. That's how pathetic,
total mismanagement of funds. And this is what you get
not only on the federal level, but you see it
in the state level. We see it here in California
since we live here, I mean all the time. You know,
they raise the taxes for gas, raise the taxes for gas.
You know, infrastructure, we got to improve our roads. Once
(07:25):
you cross over to the border Nevada, it's like you
have a brand new car. How is that?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (07:29):
How is that? And we have the high some of
the highest gas prices in the.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Country exactly as far as we collect the most money.
It's just mismanagement of California taxes because it goes to
illegal aliens. Once again, this is not a Democrat or
Republican issue. It's an American issue, and it's we've got
to protect our own first and then try to help
(07:52):
the others in need second, not the other way around.
And all the reasons. The reason why it's the other
way around is votes right. Make give people IDs, make
them citizens as fast as possible, get them into the
voter roles so we can get into power. Continue to
spend tax pair of money you know, without any conscience
(08:14):
or without any regard for you know America and it's
and it's future, you know generations.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Well, and so just the data that I said, four
trillion went out, one one and a half trillion came in.
So you got a big credit card with a big year,
the big limit. Yeah, exactly, that's.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
In a year. So but again I get that Republicans
have voted for the CRS, the stop gaps, the omnibus bills,
you know, on and on. But that's why you have
to actually vote for the individual that wants to be
fiscally responsible. This is an investment show, and it's an
economic show, and it's a market strategy show. And so
(08:54):
the reason why this is important is because if you
want to continue to have the things that you need
and be comfortable in your retirement without having to stress
about money, then this election is probably one of the
most important, certainly in my thirty plus career year career,
and certainly in Giuseppe's twenty year career. It matters. Now,
(09:18):
having said all of that, what we talked about at
the seminar and what we showed people is the simple
fact of the matter is you cannot rely on a
three to four percent draw down and think that's going
to cover all of your expenses for decades in retirement inflation.
That train has left the station. It's not coming back.
(09:39):
It's only going to be worse. So you can't rely
on a three or four percent rate, a return on
your money before inflation, before taxes, and think that your
million dollars is going to last you twenty or thirty
years in retirement. It will not. Now that doesn't mean
you have to risk all your money and put it
(09:59):
all in stocks. And in fact, there's a lot to
be concerned about. That's what we're talking about so far.
With all the things that are going on, whether it's
natural disasters here that are putting you know, Americans, American citizens,
American businesses, American taxpayers out of work, out of you know,
a job or a company. And then you throw in,
(10:23):
you know, the expanding conflict in war you know, Israel
against the terrorists, the continuing war in in Russia, and
on and on and on. The economic mistakes that are
politicians are elected politicians and are not elected politician Jerome
Powell are making is going to be a catastrophe if
(10:46):
you're not prepared. Now, you may think that, oh, I'll
just put all my money in cash. I'm good, right,
But the problem is that value of your dollar is
going down, and if you're tied to a cash investment,
whether it's in a bank or a money market fund
or whatever it is, those dollars will buy less goods
(11:06):
and services as we continue down this path, and we
are predicting that this path is going to get worse.
The stock market is certainly uncertain and priced it very
high multiples, even though it's come down a little bit.
But the bond market, gosh, if a mistake was made
(11:26):
and the read was wrong, which we believe it was
by the Central Bank, and it's.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Cutting too soon, cutting too.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Soon when all these inflation pressures are not only not
going down. Sure, the ones that they looked at, they
that are manipulated by the way CPI, pp I, PCE.
Those are manipulated numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
that literally manipulate the numbers, you know, depending on which
(11:57):
way you know. The political winds are blowing in my opinion,
to make them look better than they are, to favor
whatever strategy you're trying to sell to the American people,
especially during an election. Here, the simple fact of the
matter is that prices and the stability of the dollar
has not happened, and in fact is going to get worse.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Well, in recent data this past week, m non manufacturing
PMI came in hotter than consensus, So data come in
in hotter than consensus, right, which supports you don't really
need to cut. And then you have the tensions in
the Middle East or conflict or wars. It's straight up
(12:42):
war war at this point seems.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
And a big concern is oil driving into World War three,
but continued.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
Driving oil up right, which is a component of inflation.
And then the dockers striking, which is also going to
be putting pressure because that's a lag in effect, it's
not mediate. Longer they're longer they're off, and the longer
it lags and there's a build up.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Here's what you should be prepared for. I believe that
Q three earnings that are going to come in now,
certainly starting in a big way next week, I'm going
to start seeing the big tech names, the big banks,
you know, the big energy companies they usually report early.
Then the not as wild as widely held companies will
(13:26):
start reporting. But that will go on for the next
six weeks and earnings will probably meet expectations, probably better
than seventy five percent. You'll probably see a big amount
of companies because we're reporting what's already taking place right
and you'll probably see a fair amount of the companies
(13:46):
actually exceed earnings expectations, and that will temporarily support, you know,
current market prices for for for stocks.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
But important porn is forward guidance.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Exactly nowing you know what what all these things we've
been talking about will do to future earnings, like the
strike so on and so forth that Jazeppi and I
have been talking about. That's where we might start think
seeing things and where we're concerned. It's about Q four
(14:19):
and how that looks in light of all of this
going on, and we think that's probably not a rosy outlook.
So where we've got you out there potentially slitting your wrists,
you know from depression, from all of this negativity that
the reality is right. The reality is is that there's
(14:42):
always money flowing uh, and there's always investments that are thriving.
For every investment that might not be doing well, there's
potentially an investment that is You look at some of
the days last week where you know, you saw Chevron
go up, you saw MPC marathon, petroleum companies, saw Caesar's Entertainment.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
Go some tech stocks actually went up midweek.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
Yep, so in video went up midweek. But but the
reality is is that stick to things that people have
to have. That is where our client's money is being invested.
It's being invested in individual stocks and or bonds from
(15:29):
companies that are things you have to have. What are
things you have to have? Well, the world begins and
ends its prosperity with energy and access to affordable energy.
That there's no nobody can argue that because you can't
do anything without being able to turn on the lights
or take your whatever mode of transportation from point A
(15:53):
to point B, or power your computer or your factory.
It doesn't matter what it is. Energy will be the
top performing sector or at least top five performing sectors
in my opinion, and has been for decades quite frankly.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
Except for twenty twenty toilet paper was the top performing sector.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
And are we headed there again? Will SEP be? I
mean ports? And think of now these ports. The unions
have already said we won't let our workers if any
of these container ships try to go to other ports,
we have already you know, contact reports around the world,
(16:40):
and they're standing in solidarily and saying we're not going
to unload any tankers.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
It doesn't matter where they go. So with that, you
see the president Daggert, what was he like they building
they're exposing, like, you know what his lifestyle and income.
It's like making nine hundred thousand a year as this
mats of house has a seventy six foot yacht.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
And where did that come from?
Speaker 3 (17:04):
Not living such a bad life.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
He's never ever worked a private sector job in his life,
or at least in the last few I think he
pretty much.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
Grew up in the ILA and dock worker knows that
side of the business up and down.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Well, no, but you mentioned the President Biden. We're talking to.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
No, no, no, President of the ISLA.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Oh oh yeah, well of course, of course. Yeah. I
mean listen, they get they get paid off. And if
anybody thinks that these super packs, you know, don't bribe
and pay off these union bosses, you know, well, you know,
just do some digging, do some research. I mean, how
(17:46):
is it a union? You know? President has set first
of all, a seventy six foot yacht is millions and
millions of dollars to the maintenance of it each year.
Just the slip where you you know more at is
hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel and mooring expenses
(18:07):
and captain expenses and crew expense. So you know, those
costs all one up and magically his nine hundred thousand
dollars before taxes is not covering that. So where is
the real money coming from? Right? But again all of this,
what all of this boils down to, is what you
(18:27):
should do with your money. That's what we're concerned about.
We want to help as many people as we can.
First of all, protect number one, protect what they've grown
and accumulated and amassed over their lifetime. That's number one.
Number two is help you know what your goals are
(18:50):
and know what number you need to achieve, you know,
on your investments on your things in order to maintain
your lifestyle for the rest of your life, and then
figure out the best portfolio for you to help you
accomplish whatever that number is.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
And looking at a chart of Dow Jones, it's Dow Jones.
This is one of the oldest you know, stock indisies
out there. It goes up back to eighteen eighty six,
and you see blue bars and red bars, red bars
all the down years, the blue bars all the positive
years and more positive years and down years. But you know,
you ask, you know, how many years has the market
(19:27):
gone down fifty percent stayed down fifty percent in any
given year? And it was only one, So it was
during the Great Depression. And if you look forward in time,
you know, never has the market been down fifty percent
and stayed down fifty percent in a given year. But
there's been plenty of plenty of people out there that
have lost fifty percent in certain investments that they have
(19:50):
or in their portfolio. So how is that? How is
that accomplished? And a lot of it has to do
with stock picking right, or being in the wrong fund
or the wrong sector or asset class, or having too
much in one asset classer or one sector and being overexposed,
and something happens within that sector of the market or
(20:11):
asset class of that market and they lose out more
than the overall market. And now you're left with trying
to recoup your losses, which if you're losing fifty percent,
you're going to have to go back one hundred percent
the very next year. And so that's what we focus on,
is how can we best diversify your portfolio through not
having correlated assets and then giving you what you need.
(20:34):
So depending on what your overall goals are over spend
of time, how can we build a portfolio that's going
to achieve that, especially if you're retired and having enough
cash flow coming in without taking any unnecessary risk at
the same time, not being a buy and hold strategy,
but having it where we are active and paying attention
when there's things like what's going on right now and
(20:56):
there's some uncertainty, the market's pretty frothy, how can we
de risk right and then when the time is right,
go back in to get it So it's so so
we're participating in the growth.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
It all boils down to having a plan, you know,
being prepared, not procrastinating, not waiting and reacting after things happen,
especially when there's folks like us telling you what to
do now is crucial and you know, this dialogue has
been crucial about you know, the things that are going on,
(21:31):
the uncertainty that's you know, going to be ongoing. More importantly,
what should you do with you know, the dollar that's
shrinking in its purchasing power and the prices of everything
you know still continuing to go up, and then the
mistakes of what are what our politicians and our central
(21:54):
bank is doing. Couple that with, you know, the concerns
and the flight to safety that we're starting to see
because of the conflicts and wars happening around the world.
The most important thing you should take away from this
radio show is you have to have a plan. You
can't wait for bad things to happen. And the solution isn't,
(22:18):
you know, just go to cash, because then there's never
a good time to get back in. And what happens
is people just miss out on opportunity. And what we
stressed and showed over and over again is the monumental
mistake that people make, and sadly most advisors make. And
(22:39):
we're not advisors, we are poort folio managers and planners.
There is a massive difference. Financial advisor's main skill set
is to sell you something. Our main skill set is
not to sell you something, but to manage what you've
already done and make it better and put it in
(22:59):
a play that is a living breathing document that Giuseppe's
going to talk about, because one of the questions was, okay,
you've you've created a plan or we've created a plan,
what happens ten years from now to that plan? You know,
when we know that things are changing daily, weekly, monthly,
(23:20):
not annually or decades from now. It's it's super important
the way we do things, that you're doing them the
same way. And if you're not, and if the company
you're working with, especially like a Vanguard, you know, or
or or a Fidelity or you know, not any name
of them, not to pick on them.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
But we had, you know, we we recently had actually
a couple of clients that the new clients that they
had accounts with one of these big names, very very
low costs and that's really their main benefit. And to
go through and ask questions or get things, you know,
compile old or I mean it took ten minutes, not helping.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
In twenty minutes just to get to the right just
to go through yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
Transfer to here, transferred to there, getting getting the right
answer and not getting any advice either, and we had
to call back getting getting we had to get involved.
I mean, it was just it was ridiculous when.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
You're paying you know, let's say a quarter of one
percent annually. That means, you know, for on average the
fund cost at these discount mutual fund companies, all right,
they can't afford to give you one to one service
like we do.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
Some of those firms that you're talking about have massive
amounts of assets under management, so well, even a quarter percent,
even a quarter percent, I mean, they they I don't
know how they cannot afford at least to have some
sort of like you know, tiered level. But well, the
reality is you get the phrase exactly, That's what I
(24:56):
was about to say. But to go back to the plan,
it was a real good question because you know, part
of what we were talking about and what we've said
on the show is you know, you might have done
a plan a handful of years ago, and that's when
inflation was low and we weren't facing the things that
we've been facing this past too.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
The last decade, inflation was averaged one and a half
percent prior to twenty twenty twenty two, right.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
So you know, and we've been we've been you know,
preaching of hey, you need to redo your plan, review
it updated, so on, and so forth, and so one
of the participants in our last workshop was, Okay, you
do a plan and we go through it, and then
ten years, fast forward ten years and things are different now.
So what good is that plan if things are completely different,
(25:45):
if maybe taxes are raised, or inflation's up, or something happens,
my expenses go up or what have you, And we
don't do a plan and just make things static. It's
a living, breathing document. So but you can only work
with what you know, right and you know what what
your state of income is right now and expenses. And
the best thing that I you know, the best way
(26:06):
that I was able to kind of frame the matter
with the attendee was I said if I had a
magic wand and I said, poof, you're retired right now,
what does retirement look like for you? Right? You know
what lifestyle looks like. Now, you know what your expenses are,
and you know, you know, you probably have some sort
of idea of what you retirement's going to look like
(26:28):
or what you want it to look like. You're going
to have an ideal and you're going to have like
an acceptable and so those that's what we work with
and we say, okay, what have you contribute towards your
retirement now? And then what do we need to work towards.
But we don't stop there. Then we stress test it. Okay,
what if you retire and the first two years in
retirement we have negative stock market returns? How does that
(26:49):
impact your retirement moving forward? What if we have average
markets from that point out? What if at some point
in retirement you have some sort of healthcare event and
expenses increase by twenty thirty, forty percent? How does that
impact retirement? And so we create different scenarios or different
events that stress test your because we don't know. Nobody
(27:12):
has a crystal ball, but we've done this long enough
that we can I guess, say, you know, safely somewhat
forecast what might be around the corner, right because what
might have happened with another client that has potentially gotten
close to derailing their plan. We can say, well, we've
seen X, Y and Z happen to clients in the
(27:33):
past where they weren't expecting, you know, ten years into retirement,
and so we can put some of these things into
your plan and stress tested to say, what if this
you know, X, Y and Z happens to your plan,
does it throw it off or not? Or do you
have enough and you're doing such a great job that
you have a high enough probability of success where you
have some wiggle room. The idea is that you don't
(27:53):
want to put a plan together where you're on the cusp,
where you're like, Okay, I just have enough and if
it just continued down to the penny, then I'll be
able to retire and you know, ten years from now
or fifteen years, whatever your goal is, and you know,
I have enough of a probability of success that it's
going to go smoothly. But if if a rock is
in the road and my tire hits it and I
get a flat tire, get a blowout, Yeah, and that's
(28:15):
not what we shoot for. We shoot for we want
some moggal room. We want to you know, and we
and we convey that to the clients all the while.
Like I said, it's a living, breathing document. So as
time goes on, things change, and we know that the
marketing economy changes, obviously, the political environment, situation changes, Your
situation changes, and as we go along, we update the
plan and then we make the necessary adjustments to the
(28:37):
portfolio accordingly, so they align.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
Well, yeah, some of the other questions that we got were,
you know, well, how often do you meet with your client?
And then of course what do you charge for you know,
such a high level of service and communication and meetings
with the client. First, we don't charge separately for planning.
That's included in our advisor, our annual advisory fee. And
(28:59):
on top of that, we really strive to make sure
that we deliver a VIP client experience that's really second
to none in the area. Are there some that might
be delivering an experience that's close to us, good, Well,
I'm sure there is, but we know that most people
(29:20):
that come to us aren't getting the level of experience
that we deliver as far as how open and transparent
and regular our communication is to our clients, how often
we meet to help them, you know, stay on track
for their goals and not panic and help them deal
with the emotions of what's going on around the world.
(29:42):
That's what's crucial, by the way, you know, our emotional
stability when it comes to planning and investing is crucial
at times like these, right, other people make the wrong decision,
they see things starting to change and go down and
they immediately, you know, overreact, and then they lock in losses.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
And mostly emotional based decision.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
Go to cash without a plan or without folks like
Dyuseppe and I helping them, and then they don't know
when to go back in. And so the time to
go back in is when all the celebration is now
back out there. Oh see, the market's good, the market's
gone up. Look at all this good news, Look at
all the money that's bought this and bought that. And
(30:26):
then they get back in. So what did they just do? Duseppe, Well,
I'm going to tell our listeners what they just did,
which is the opposite of what they should be doing, John,
is they bought high and sold low, and then they
do it over and over again. And it's funny that,
you know, you talked about that slide in the workshop
that looked at the Dow jones going back to eighteen
(30:48):
eighty six. You know, well, well over one hundred years,
there's only one period where the Dow has stayed has
gone down and stayed down in a year fifty percent,
you would say earlier people would think that, you know,
there was many many times. Because they've lost fifty they've
(31:11):
lost thirty they've lost twenty five. That oh the market. No,
it's the investment decisions and the overtaking of risk in
certain types of investments that lost people individuals fifty percent
or worse or close to it.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Not the markets or timing around getting out when things
are going down. You rote the roller coaster down, you
got out, comped off the roller coaster. You're sitting in cash,
a roller coaster's starting to go back up. Your hesitant,
You're hesitant, you're hesitant. Then you finally get in, but
it's already towards the top.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
So the main thing and the main reason why it's
so important to work with money managers, professional Portfololio managers
like Duseppi and I with a plan and taking a planning,
thought out, written, over communicated approach is to help you
(32:04):
not make bad emotional decisions. And it's worth every time,
especially the stress that it relieves by you not having
to do it in the years that you have left.
Why would you want to be sixty five, seventy seventy five,
eighty years old? And are you glued to the TV?
(32:25):
Are you glued to your computer screen? Are you glued
to the radio? Where you're making active, proper decisions. Are
you researching the things that you're in, the funds that
you're in, what the holdings are, how they correlate to
other investments. Are you properly diversified. What's the cost of
those investments and the embedded expenses inside of it? Are
(32:48):
you doing You're stressing me out right, and chances are
you're answering no to all of those questions. And that's
why you need to call nine to one six nine
sixty seven thirty five hundred. This is the time. Don't
wait till things get worse economically or things get worse
around the world to give us a call and then
(33:11):
go man. I wish I would have given those guys
a call to see how they're different, to see how
they help people when times are bad, versus how easy
it is when times are good. That's what's important, is
how well do you do during bad times uncertain times.
Anybody can make money, you know, in a mutual fund
(33:33):
or potentially a stock er or interest off of saving
when when times are good. That's not when it's crucial
to be working and have a plan and have the
team behind you, like Giuseppe and I as it is
right now, this is the time and over the next
five ten years that will make all the difference in
(33:57):
the world on whether or not you will kept up
with the decreasing buying power of the dollar or not.
And if you haven't, God, could you imagine now you're
eighty eighty five years old, You're out of money, and
you may be thinking, oh, I have a million dollars,
I have two million dollars. That'll never happen to me. Well,
(34:20):
I mean, never say never. And the fact is, even
if you have, you know, a good pension, you're also
maybe getting sol security. You're a dual income retired household
or about to or about to retire, and your dual income,
and you'd you've done everything right. You paid off your mortgage,
(34:42):
you paid off your cars, you have no credit card debt.
You've saved that you know, money in in the four
to one K plan or the savings plus plan or
the four P fifty seven or what or in your
era or in your wroth, whatever the case may be.
Your trust to count. Don't get sidetracked. You know, the
(35:04):
the the issues that are facing us today are unlike
any that we've ever faced. You you don't want to
wake up a decade from now and wish that you
had you know, planned and done things differently, and you
certainly want to make your not over risking your you know,
(35:26):
your livelihood in the wrong you know, type of investment
in the wrong strategy. And so for the next five
to ten years, maybe longer, however long it takes for
the system to break or for the sixth system to
be fixed, it's crucial that you come in by calling
(35:46):
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. There's
no pressure, you know, once you come and sit down
with us, we just show you what what we do.
We talk about, you know, what we have done. We
ask you questions about what your concerns are and what
you would do differently or what you want to see
you know, in the next you know, one year, three year,
(36:07):
five years, ten years, and then we see if there's
some sort of you know, fit for our style and
your style to meld together and give you the best
probability of success that you can have, you know, without
without you know, support like us, meaning if you're going
it alone or you're working with you know, somebody who
(36:30):
doesn't do things the way we do. We feel that
you're probably a going to have a more stressful, you
know life in retirement, and b probably not to have
the same results that you would have, you know, if
you're working by yourself or the wrong you know type
of people. Given the type of environment that we're in
(36:53):
and will be in the future, is not less severe.
The future is more severe conflicts.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
I mean, more reasons for for the market to be
impacted to the downsidely, That's why, rather than for it
to just continue to break all time record highs.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Yeah, there's not a come by next year, right or
the next three years. I mean does the does the
spread of China and its desire to completely take over
you know, Asia and anything related to you know, uh,
its protection of its way of life in goods and services.
(37:32):
They want to infiltrate you know, every potential nation, especially
the G seven nations that they can and take over
as much of it as they can. Now you might
be thinking, oh, that that that's not happening, that will
never happen. It is happening. China is gobbling up businesses
and property all over the world, especially here. Then you
(37:55):
couple that with you know, the expanding you know below
up you know, uh.
Speaker 4 (38:01):
China markets have actually gone up quite a bit well,
and again it's not so much about the market but
the support and and and coverage, uh and and taking
care of you know.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
The the the the the population of China, right, I mean,
they don't have the resources in China to take care
of one point three, one point two whatever the number is,
billion people right right. India doesn't have the resources and
infrastructure to take care of a billion and a half people.
(38:36):
And so then you look at the other countries that
are absolutely under dictatorships. You know, it's it's criminality that
that really runs industry and and opportunity there. The US
can't and in Western Europe can't absorb at all. So
the fact of the matter is able to be able
(38:58):
to afford goods and services over the next three, five, ten,
twenty years, they're going to be way more expensive than
they are right now. And you're probably already thinking to yourself,
how much higher could insurance go? How much higher could
utility prices go? How much higher could grocery prices go?
They could go up drastically more than they are right now.
(39:22):
So my point is, and what where we started the show?
Speaker 3 (39:25):
Fire up the nuclear reactors.
Speaker 2 (39:28):
Well again, if we get energy prices down and we
get energy being delivered in abundance around the world, everything
goes down. But right now we have this climate hoax
going on that says, oh, somehow our clean energy is
contributing to you know, man made global warming. They don't
(39:50):
say it that way anymore. But the reality is all
that is is a tax and a regulatory effort to
seize you know, money for the spending that's that's gone
on and the really theft of you know, hardworking Americans prosperity.
That's all it is. I mean, somehow they're going, well,
(40:14):
we're at thirty five trillion, we want to be at
fifty trillion dollars in debt. How are we going to
pay for that? Oh, I know, we just steal everybody's money,
you know, based on a phony crisis. The reality is
the world's not getting warmer. The world is getting cooler.
And if you look at real science, you know, real
(40:34):
science knows that the world has cooled, it is not warmed.
Real science knows that man does not create greenhouse gases
more than volcanoes, more than you know, every mammal on Earth.
And and when you when you look at the real science.
The reality is is that other countries, if it is
(40:57):
true that man is destroying the atmosphere with greenhouse gases,
not pollution, right, pollution. Nobody wants dirty air or dirty water,
or putting chemicals into our drinking water and things like that.
But the reality is is that none of these things
are going to change. That's I got on a diatribe,
(41:18):
you did. But the reality is all this adds up
to well, and it's more cost to maintain your lifestyle
for the next couple of decades.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
Well, it's more cost for us, but we are the
cleanest you know, continent where we have clean.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Air and water because of the regulations. Yeah, exactly, that
none of the rest of the world follows.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
Well, we're outsourcing it to other countries that don't have
those regulations, that don't produce clean air and water because
of the pollution.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
They're firing they're coal factories.
Speaker 3 (41:49):
Yes, So it's just it's just counteracting each other, just
like monetary policy and fiscal policy are butting.
Speaker 2 (41:57):
Heads exactly right. You cannot can control inflation monetarily without
fiscally making changes, you know, out of Washington. And so
this is where we are, and the best thing that
you can do is call the wise money Guys John Scambray,
Touseeppe Vescani at nine six seven thirty five hundred. We
(42:20):
will help you plan for whatever the future throws at
us to give you the highest probability to being able
to maintain your lifestyle throughout the rest of retirement. Called
nine six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Hope you
enjoyed the show. Have a wonderful weekend by all.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
Talk to you next weekend.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com or call nine
nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys Radio Show. I'm your
co host, John Scambray, and I'm here with my partner
just Happy Visconti, and we are certified portfolio Managers, which
means we are investment experts that absolutely thrive on helping
people who are retired, we're about to retire manage their money.
If you like our show and want to get a
hold of us for a no obligation consultation, call nine
(00:40):
one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Let's start
the show by just a quick thank you and mention
of how good our last seminar of the year is.
At least we think it was good.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, Yeah, it was a good turnout. I had some
good participants, some good, good questions, Yeah, a little bit
of engagement in there.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Dozens of couples And the reality is what that tells
me is that people are concerned. Right, you come to
a workshop on investments and planning and and and you know,
discussing what you should do with your money based on
what's going on and what might go on when you
(01:23):
are concerned as well, and we always have very large
turnouts when you know people are concerned, and quite frankly,
they should be. I mean you look at obviously the
port strike, you know, the disaster in the in the
Gulf States, in the Southeast border states, and then obviously
(01:48):
the expanding war in the Middle East, the now never
ending war in Russia and Ukraine. And let me tell
you what that adds up to. That adds up to
spending that will continue to be at an astronomical rate
(02:09):
which will not allow prices to go down, which means
I am really really concerned that the central bank cut
too soon and that inflation is going to actually come
back worse.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Well, and we have a couple of events, one of
them you just mentioned the conflict, which depending on you know,
how how much this escalates, it's already driving the price
of oil up right, which is going to add to inflation.
Then we have the dock workers in the east to
the golf that have been on.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Strike and that will really take a huge bite out
of potential, you know, supply.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
Further driving up costs and rerouting, shipping and and what
have you. And that's going to drive up costs and
then the debt. I have some information, interesting data as
far as the dat interesting or scary. Yeah, pretty scary,
pretty scary, right, Yeah. So from you know, midweek, in
about three days, I think it was like Monday to
(03:18):
Wednesday or Monday Thursday or something like that, three hundred
and forty five billion an additional debt, which brought the
total debt, the US public debt to thirty five point
seven trillion. Okay, So since June of twenty twenty three, right,
so a little over a year ago, the debt has
(03:39):
increased by four trillion dollars and in that same period
of time, GDP one and a half trillion dollars, so
two point seven times almost three times the race.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
You know, when you figure out the ratio at the GBP, yep,
this is unsustainable. Folks. If you think that elections don't matter, now,
you might think election don't matter in California because it's
a one party state, but for president it still matters.
And the people that to support in Congress and in
(04:10):
the Senate really matter because we cannot continue. And it's
not just a perfect issue where you can say, oh,
if we vote Republican. You know, Republicans are more concerned
about the debt and deficits than Democrats. You actually have
to vote for conservatives, and most conservatives are under the
(04:34):
Republican flag. But not all Republicans are created equal. A
lot of Republicans are just as big as you know
as Democrats when it comes to tax and spend. In fact,
they've voted for every major stop gap, continuing resolution, omnibus
(04:56):
and just for money that we don't have and continue
to print and borrow, strapping it onto the backs of taxpayers.
And so it's crucial that you know what somebody's actual
fiscal policies are or fiscal beliefs are, because that's the
only thing that's going to save America. The other thing
(05:17):
is is you can't keep importing. Speaking of the disaster,
here's something that's just absolutely should tell you right off
the bat why illegal immigration and the stopping of illegal
immigration is so important because now you have this disaster
where FEMA is the first bucket right where FEMA is
(05:40):
the first bucket of money that you go to to
help Americans, to help American business owners, to help citizens
that pay taxes and have paid their dues. But guess
where a massive or the majority of FEMA money has
gone in the last couple of years. Not to our citizens,
(06:01):
not to our citizens, not to the victims of a
hurricane Helena. No, it went to.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Another role another they said, there's another hurricane. They say
is brewing.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Yeah. So I don't care if you're Democrat or Republican.
This is an American issue, an American financial issue, and
this show is a financial show. We cannot give our
money away to foreigners that don't contribute to our society.
In fact, you know, our raping and pillaging our society.
(06:32):
And now when our citizens need money, you know, from
FEMA and from some of the organizations that take tax
payer money for emergencies, just like the ones we're having.
And now there's no money.
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Well no, no, but Kaumla said, all the all the victims
of the hurricane and flooding, they'll get seven hundred and
fifty dollars.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Each, seven hundred and fifty bucks. But they're giving tens
of thousands to each illegal alien that you know, I
know you did, but but it's.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Worth you know, that's how Sadurday is. That's how pathetic,
total mismanagement of funds. And this is what you get
not only on the federal level, but you see it
in the state level. We see it here in California
since we live here, I mean all the time. You know,
they raise the taxes for gas, raise the taxes for gas.
You know, infrastructure, we got to improve our roads. Once
(07:25):
you cross over to the border Nevada, it's like you
have a brand new car. How is that?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (07:29):
How is that? And we have the high some of
the highest gas prices in the.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Country exactly as far as we collect the most money.
It's just mismanagement of California taxes because it goes to
illegal aliens. Once again, this is not a Democrat or
Republican issue. It's an American issue, and it's we've got
to protect our own first and then try to help
(07:52):
the others in need second, not the other way around.
And all the reasons. The reason why it's the other
way around is votes right. Make give people IDs, make
them citizens as fast as possible, get them into the
voter roles so we can get into power. Continue to
spend tax pair of money you know, without any conscience
(08:14):
or without any regard for you know America and it's
and it's future, you know generations.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
Well, and so just the data that I said, four
trillion went out, one one and a half trillion came in.
So you got a big credit card with a big year,
the big limit. Yeah, exactly, that's.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
In a year. So but again I get that Republicans
have voted for the CRS, the stop gaps, the omnibus bills,
you know, on and on. But that's why you have
to actually vote for the individual that wants to be
fiscally responsible. This is an investment show, and it's an
economic show, and it's a market strategy show. And so
(08:54):
the reason why this is important is because if you
want to continue to have the things that you need
and be comfortable in your retirement without having to stress
about money, then this election is probably one of the
most important, certainly in my thirty plus career year career,
and certainly in Giuseppe's twenty year career. It matters. Now,
(09:18):
having said all of that, what we talked about at
the seminar and what we showed people is the simple
fact of the matter is you cannot rely on a
three to four percent draw down and think that's going
to cover all of your expenses for decades in retirement inflation.
That train has left the station. It's not coming back.
(09:39):
It's only going to be worse. So you can't rely
on a three or four percent rate, a return on
your money before inflation, before taxes, and think that your
million dollars is going to last you twenty or thirty
years in retirement. It will not. Now that doesn't mean
you have to risk all your money and put it
(09:59):
all in stocks. And in fact, there's a lot to
be concerned about. That's what we're talking about so far.
With all the things that are going on, whether it's
natural disasters here that are putting you know, Americans, American citizens,
American businesses, American taxpayers out of work, out of you know,
a job or a company. And then you throw in,
(10:23):
you know, the expanding conflict in war you know, Israel
against the terrorists, the continuing war in in Russia, and
on and on and on. The economic mistakes that are
politicians are elected politicians and are not elected politician Jerome
Powell are making is going to be a catastrophe if
(10:46):
you're not prepared. Now, you may think that, oh, I'll
just put all my money in cash. I'm good, right,
But the problem is that value of your dollar is
going down, and if you're tied to a cash investment,
whether it's in a bank or a money market fund
or whatever it is, those dollars will buy less goods
(11:06):
and services as we continue down this path, and we
are predicting that this path is going to get worse.
The stock market is certainly uncertain and priced it very
high multiples, even though it's come down a little bit.
But the bond market, gosh, if a mistake was made
(11:26):
and the read was wrong, which we believe it was
by the Central Bank, and it's.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Cutting too soon, cutting too.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Soon when all these inflation pressures are not only not
going down. Sure, the ones that they looked at, they
that are manipulated by the way CPI, pp I, PCE.
Those are manipulated numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
that literally manipulate the numbers, you know, depending on which
(11:57):
way you know. The political winds are blowing in my opinion,
to make them look better than they are, to favor
whatever strategy you're trying to sell to the American people,
especially during an election. Here, the simple fact of the
matter is that prices and the stability of the dollar
has not happened, and in fact is going to get worse.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Well, in recent data this past week, m non manufacturing
PMI came in hotter than consensus, So data come in
in hotter than consensus, right, which supports you don't really
need to cut. And then you have the tensions in
the Middle East or conflict or wars. It's straight up
(12:42):
war war at this point seems.
Speaker 2 (12:44):
And a big concern is oil driving into World War three,
but continued.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
Driving oil up right, which is a component of inflation.
And then the dockers striking, which is also going to
be putting pressure because that's a lag in effect, it's
not mediate. Longer they're longer they're off, and the longer
it lags and there's a build up.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Here's what you should be prepared for. I believe that
Q three earnings that are going to come in now,
certainly starting in a big way next week, I'm going
to start seeing the big tech names, the big banks,
you know, the big energy companies they usually report early.
Then the not as wild as widely held companies will
(13:26):
start reporting. But that will go on for the next
six weeks and earnings will probably meet expectations, probably better
than seventy five percent. You'll probably see a big amount
of companies because we're reporting what's already taking place right
and you'll probably see a fair amount of the companies
(13:46):
actually exceed earnings expectations, and that will temporarily support, you know,
current market prices for for for stocks.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
But important porn is forward guidance.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Exactly nowing you know what what all these things we've
been talking about will do to future earnings, like the
strike so on and so forth that Jazeppi and I
have been talking about. That's where we might start think
seeing things and where we're concerned. It's about Q four
(14:19):
and how that looks in light of all of this
going on, and we think that's probably not a rosy outlook.
So where we've got you out there potentially slitting your wrists,
you know from depression, from all of this negativity that
the reality is right. The reality is is that there's
(14:42):
always money flowing uh, and there's always investments that are thriving.
For every investment that might not be doing well, there's
potentially an investment that is You look at some of
the days last week where you know, you saw Chevron
go up, you saw MPC marathon, petroleum companies, saw Caesar's Entertainment.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
Go some tech stocks actually went up midweek.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
Yep, so in video went up midweek. But but the
reality is is that stick to things that people have
to have. That is where our client's money is being invested.
It's being invested in individual stocks and or bonds from
(15:29):
companies that are things you have to have. What are
things you have to have? Well, the world begins and
ends its prosperity with energy and access to affordable energy.
That there's no nobody can argue that because you can't
do anything without being able to turn on the lights
or take your whatever mode of transportation from point A
(15:53):
to point B, or power your computer or your factory.
It doesn't matter what it is. Energy will be the
top performing sector or at least top five performing sectors
in my opinion, and has been for decades quite frankly.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
Except for twenty twenty toilet paper was the top performing sector.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
And are we headed there again? Will SEP be? I
mean ports? And think of now these ports. The unions
have already said we won't let our workers if any
of these container ships try to go to other ports,
we have already you know, contact reports around the world,
(16:40):
and they're standing in solidarily and saying we're not going
to unload any tankers.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
It doesn't matter where they go. So with that, you
see the president Daggert, what was he like they building
they're exposing, like, you know what his lifestyle and income.
It's like making nine hundred thousand a year as this
mats of house has a seventy six foot yacht.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
And where did that come from?
Speaker 3 (17:04):
Not living such a bad life.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
He's never ever worked a private sector job in his life,
or at least in the last few I think he
pretty much.
Speaker 3 (17:12):
Grew up in the ILA and dock worker knows that
side of the business up and down.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Well, no, but you mentioned the President Biden. We're talking to.
Speaker 3 (17:22):
No, no, no, President of the ISLA.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Oh oh yeah, well of course, of course. Yeah. I
mean listen, they get they get paid off. And if
anybody thinks that these super packs, you know, don't bribe
and pay off these union bosses, you know, well, you know,
just do some digging, do some research. I mean, how
(17:46):
is it a union? You know? President has set first
of all, a seventy six foot yacht is millions and
millions of dollars to the maintenance of it each year.
Just the slip where you you know more at is
hundreds of thousands of dollars in fuel and mooring expenses
(18:07):
and captain expenses and crew expense. So you know, those
costs all one up and magically his nine hundred thousand
dollars before taxes is not covering that. So where is
the real money coming from? Right? But again all of this,
what all of this boils down to, is what you
(18:27):
should do with your money. That's what we're concerned about.
We want to help as many people as we can.
First of all, protect number one, protect what they've grown
and accumulated and amassed over their lifetime. That's number one.
Number two is help you know what your goals are
(18:50):
and know what number you need to achieve, you know,
on your investments on your things in order to maintain
your lifestyle for the rest of your life, and then
figure out the best portfolio for you to help you
accomplish whatever that number is.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
And looking at a chart of Dow Jones, it's Dow Jones.
This is one of the oldest you know, stock indisies
out there. It goes up back to eighteen eighty six,
and you see blue bars and red bars, red bars
all the down years, the blue bars all the positive
years and more positive years and down years. But you know,
you ask, you know, how many years has the market
(19:27):
gone down fifty percent stayed down fifty percent in any
given year? And it was only one, So it was
during the Great Depression. And if you look forward in time,
you know, never has the market been down fifty percent
and stayed down fifty percent in a given year. But
there's been plenty of plenty of people out there that
have lost fifty percent in certain investments that they have
(19:50):
or in their portfolio. So how is that? How is
that accomplished? And a lot of it has to do
with stock picking right, or being in the wrong fund
or the wrong sector or asset class, or having too
much in one asset classer or one sector and being overexposed,
and something happens within that sector of the market or
(20:11):
asset class of that market and they lose out more
than the overall market. And now you're left with trying
to recoup your losses, which if you're losing fifty percent,
you're going to have to go back one hundred percent
the very next year. And so that's what we focus on,
is how can we best diversify your portfolio through not
having correlated assets and then giving you what you need.
(20:34):
So depending on what your overall goals are over spend
of time, how can we build a portfolio that's going
to achieve that, especially if you're retired and having enough
cash flow coming in without taking any unnecessary risk at
the same time, not being a buy and hold strategy,
but having it where we are active and paying attention
when there's things like what's going on right now and
(20:56):
there's some uncertainty, the market's pretty frothy, how can we
de risk right and then when the time is right,
go back in to get it So it's so so
we're participating in the growth.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
It all boils down to having a plan, you know,
being prepared, not procrastinating, not waiting and reacting after things happen,
especially when there's folks like us telling you what to
do now is crucial and you know, this dialogue has
been crucial about you know, the things that are going on,
(21:31):
the uncertainty that's you know, going to be ongoing. More importantly,
what should you do with you know, the dollar that's
shrinking in its purchasing power and the prices of everything
you know still continuing to go up, and then the
mistakes of what are what our politicians and our central
(21:54):
bank is doing. Couple that with, you know, the concerns
and the flight to safety that we're starting to see
because of the conflicts and wars happening around the world.
The most important thing you should take away from this
radio show is you have to have a plan. You
can't wait for bad things to happen. And the solution isn't,
(22:18):
you know, just go to cash, because then there's never
a good time to get back in. And what happens
is people just miss out on opportunity. And what we
stressed and showed over and over again is the monumental
mistake that people make, and sadly most advisors make. And
(22:39):
we're not advisors, we are poort folio managers and planners.
There is a massive difference. Financial advisor's main skill set
is to sell you something. Our main skill set is
not to sell you something, but to manage what you've
already done and make it better and put it in
(22:59):
a play that is a living breathing document that Giuseppe's
going to talk about, because one of the questions was, okay,
you've you've created a plan or we've created a plan,
what happens ten years from now to that plan? You know,
when we know that things are changing daily, weekly, monthly,
(23:20):
not annually or decades from now. It's it's super important
the way we do things, that you're doing them the
same way. And if you're not, and if the company
you're working with, especially like a Vanguard, you know, or
or or a Fidelity or you know, not any name
of them, not to pick on them.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
But we had, you know, we we recently had actually
a couple of clients that the new clients that they
had accounts with one of these big names, very very
low costs and that's really their main benefit. And to
go through and ask questions or get things, you know,
compile old or I mean it took ten minutes, not helping.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
In twenty minutes just to get to the right just
to go through yeah.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
Transfer to here, transferred to there, getting getting the right
answer and not getting any advice either, and we had
to call back getting getting we had to get involved.
I mean, it was just it was ridiculous when.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
You're paying you know, let's say a quarter of one
percent annually. That means, you know, for on average the
fund cost at these discount mutual fund companies, all right,
they can't afford to give you one to one service
like we do.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
Some of those firms that you're talking about have massive
amounts of assets under management, so well, even a quarter percent,
even a quarter percent, I mean, they they I don't
know how they cannot afford at least to have some
sort of like you know, tiered level. But well, the
reality is you get the phrase exactly, That's what I
(24:56):
was about to say. But to go back to the plan,
it was a real good question because you know, part
of what we were talking about and what we've said
on the show is you know, you might have done
a plan a handful of years ago, and that's when
inflation was low and we weren't facing the things that
we've been facing this past too.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
The last decade, inflation was averaged one and a half
percent prior to twenty twenty twenty two, right.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
So you know, and we've been we've been you know,
preaching of hey, you need to redo your plan, review
it updated, so on, and so forth, and so one
of the participants in our last workshop was, Okay, you
do a plan and we go through it, and then
ten years, fast forward ten years and things are different now.
So what good is that plan if things are completely different,
(25:45):
if maybe taxes are raised, or inflation's up, or something happens,
my expenses go up or what have you, And we
don't do a plan and just make things static. It's
a living, breathing document. So but you can only work
with what you know, right and you know what what
your state of income is right now and expenses. And
the best thing that I you know, the best way
(26:06):
that I was able to kind of frame the matter
with the attendee was I said if I had a
magic wand and I said, poof, you're retired right now,
what does retirement look like for you? Right? You know
what lifestyle looks like. Now, you know what your expenses are,
and you know, you know, you probably have some sort
of idea of what you retirement's going to look like
(26:28):
or what you want it to look like. You're going
to have an ideal and you're going to have like
an acceptable and so those that's what we work with
and we say, okay, what have you contribute towards your
retirement now? And then what do we need to work towards.
But we don't stop there. Then we stress test it. Okay,
what if you retire and the first two years in
retirement we have negative stock market returns? How does that
(26:49):
impact your retirement moving forward? What if we have average
markets from that point out? What if at some point
in retirement you have some sort of healthcare event and
expenses increase by twenty thirty, forty percent? How does that
impact retirement? And so we create different scenarios or different
events that stress test your because we don't know. Nobody
(27:12):
has a crystal ball, but we've done this long enough
that we can I guess, say, you know, safely somewhat
forecast what might be around the corner, right because what
might have happened with another client that has potentially gotten
close to derailing their plan. We can say, well, we've
seen X, Y and Z happen to clients in the
(27:33):
past where they weren't expecting, you know, ten years into retirement,
and so we can put some of these things into
your plan and stress tested to say, what if this
you know, X, Y and Z happens to your plan,
does it throw it off or not? Or do you
have enough and you're doing such a great job that
you have a high enough probability of success where you
have some wiggle room. The idea is that you don't
(27:53):
want to put a plan together where you're on the cusp,
where you're like, Okay, I just have enough and if
it just continued down to the penny, then I'll be
able to retire and you know, ten years from now
or fifteen years, whatever your goal is, and you know,
I have enough of a probability of success that it's
going to go smoothly. But if if a rock is
in the road and my tire hits it and I
get a flat tire, get a blowout, Yeah, and that's
(28:15):
not what we shoot for. We shoot for we want
some moggal room. We want to you know, and we
and we convey that to the clients all the while.
Like I said, it's a living, breathing document. So as
time goes on, things change, and we know that the
marketing economy changes, obviously, the political environment, situation changes, Your
situation changes, and as we go along, we update the
plan and then we make the necessary adjustments to the
(28:37):
portfolio accordingly, so they align.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
Well, yeah, some of the other questions that we got were,
you know, well, how often do you meet with your client?
And then of course what do you charge for you know,
such a high level of service and communication and meetings
with the client. First, we don't charge separately for planning.
That's included in our advisor, our annual advisory fee. And
(28:59):
on top of that, we really strive to make sure
that we deliver a VIP client experience that's really second
to none in the area. Are there some that might
be delivering an experience that's close to us, good, Well,
I'm sure there is, but we know that most people
(29:20):
that come to us aren't getting the level of experience
that we deliver as far as how open and transparent
and regular our communication is to our clients, how often
we meet to help them, you know, stay on track
for their goals and not panic and help them deal
with the emotions of what's going on around the world.
(29:42):
That's what's crucial, by the way, you know, our emotional
stability when it comes to planning and investing is crucial
at times like these, right, other people make the wrong decision,
they see things starting to change and go down and
they immediately, you know, overreact, and then they lock in losses.
Speaker 3 (30:03):
And mostly emotional based decision.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
Go to cash without a plan or without folks like
Dyuseppe and I helping them, and then they don't know
when to go back in. And so the time to
go back in is when all the celebration is now
back out there. Oh see, the market's good, the market's
gone up. Look at all this good news, Look at
all the money that's bought this and bought that. And
(30:26):
then they get back in. So what did they just do? Duseppe, Well,
I'm going to tell our listeners what they just did,
which is the opposite of what they should be doing, John,
is they bought high and sold low, and then they
do it over and over again. And it's funny that,
you know, you talked about that slide in the workshop
that looked at the Dow jones going back to eighteen
(30:48):
eighty six. You know, well, well over one hundred years,
there's only one period where the Dow has stayed has
gone down and stayed down in a year fifty percent,
you would say earlier people would think that, you know,
there was many many times. Because they've lost fifty they've
(31:11):
lost thirty they've lost twenty five. That oh the market. No,
it's the investment decisions and the overtaking of risk in
certain types of investments that lost people individuals fifty percent
or worse or close to it.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Not the markets or timing around getting out when things
are going down. You rote the roller coaster down, you
got out, comped off the roller coaster. You're sitting in cash,
a roller coaster's starting to go back up. Your hesitant,
You're hesitant, you're hesitant. Then you finally get in, but
it's already towards the top.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
So the main thing and the main reason why it's
so important to work with money managers, professional Portfololio managers
like Duseppi and I with a plan and taking a planning,
thought out, written, over communicated approach is to help you
(32:04):
not make bad emotional decisions. And it's worth every time,
especially the stress that it relieves by you not having
to do it in the years that you have left.
Why would you want to be sixty five, seventy seventy five,
eighty years old? And are you glued to the TV?
(32:25):
Are you glued to your computer screen? Are you glued
to the radio? Where you're making active, proper decisions. Are
you researching the things that you're in, the funds that
you're in, what the holdings are, how they correlate to
other investments. Are you properly diversified. What's the cost of
those investments and the embedded expenses inside of it? Are
(32:48):
you doing You're stressing me out right, and chances are
you're answering no to all of those questions. And that's
why you need to call nine to one six nine
sixty seven thirty five hundred. This is the time. Don't
wait till things get worse economically or things get worse
around the world to give us a call and then
(33:11):
go man. I wish I would have given those guys
a call to see how they're different, to see how
they help people when times are bad, versus how easy
it is when times are good. That's what's important, is
how well do you do during bad times uncertain times.
Anybody can make money, you know, in a mutual fund
(33:33):
or potentially a stock er or interest off of saving
when when times are good. That's not when it's crucial
to be working and have a plan and have the
team behind you, like Giuseppe and I as it is
right now, this is the time and over the next
five ten years that will make all the difference in
(33:57):
the world on whether or not you will kept up
with the decreasing buying power of the dollar or not.
And if you haven't, God, could you imagine now you're
eighty eighty five years old, You're out of money, and
you may be thinking, oh, I have a million dollars,
I have two million dollars. That'll never happen to me. Well,
(34:20):
I mean, never say never. And the fact is, even
if you have, you know, a good pension, you're also
maybe getting sol security. You're a dual income retired household
or about to or about to retire, and your dual income,
and you'd you've done everything right. You paid off your mortgage,
(34:42):
you paid off your cars, you have no credit card debt.
You've saved that you know, money in in the four
to one K plan or the savings plus plan or
the four P fifty seven or what or in your
era or in your wroth, whatever the case may be.
Your trust to count. Don't get sidetracked. You know, the
(35:04):
the the issues that are facing us today are unlike
any that we've ever faced. You you don't want to
wake up a decade from now and wish that you
had you know, planned and done things differently, and you
certainly want to make your not over risking your you know,
(35:26):
your livelihood in the wrong you know, type of investment
in the wrong strategy. And so for the next five
to ten years, maybe longer, however long it takes for
the system to break or for the sixth system to
be fixed, it's crucial that you come in by calling
(35:46):
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. There's
no pressure, you know, once you come and sit down
with us, we just show you what what we do.
We talk about, you know, what we have done. We
ask you questions about what your concerns are and what
you would do differently or what you want to see
you know, in the next you know, one year, three year,
(36:07):
five years, ten years, and then we see if there's
some sort of you know, fit for our style and
your style to meld together and give you the best
probability of success that you can have, you know, without
without you know, support like us, meaning if you're going
it alone or you're working with you know, somebody who
(36:30):
doesn't do things the way we do. We feel that
you're probably a going to have a more stressful, you
know life in retirement, and b probably not to have
the same results that you would have, you know, if
you're working by yourself or the wrong you know type
of people. Given the type of environment that we're in
(36:53):
and will be in the future, is not less severe.
The future is more severe conflicts.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
I mean, more reasons for for the market to be
impacted to the downsidely, That's why, rather than for it
to just continue to break all time record highs.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
Yeah, there's not a come by next year, right or
the next three years. I mean does the does the
spread of China and its desire to completely take over
you know, Asia and anything related to you know, uh,
its protection of its way of life in goods and services.
(37:32):
They want to infiltrate you know, every potential nation, especially
the G seven nations that they can and take over
as much of it as they can. Now you might
be thinking, oh, that that that's not happening, that will
never happen. It is happening. China is gobbling up businesses
and property all over the world, especially here. Then you
(37:55):
couple that with you know, the expanding you know below
up you know, uh.
Speaker 4 (38:01):
China markets have actually gone up quite a bit well,
and again it's not so much about the market but
the support and and and coverage, uh and and taking
care of you know.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
The the the the the population of China, right, I mean,
they don't have the resources in China to take care
of one point three, one point two whatever the number is,
billion people right right. India doesn't have the resources and
infrastructure to take care of a billion and a half people.
(38:36):
And so then you look at the other countries that
are absolutely under dictatorships. You know, it's it's criminality that
that really runs industry and and opportunity there. The US
can't and in Western Europe can't absorb at all. So
the fact of the matter is able to be able
(38:58):
to afford goods and services over the next three, five, ten,
twenty years, they're going to be way more expensive than
they are right now. And you're probably already thinking to yourself,
how much higher could insurance go? How much higher could
utility prices go? How much higher could grocery prices go?
They could go up drastically more than they are right now.
(39:22):
So my point is, and what where we started the show?
Speaker 3 (39:25):
Fire up the nuclear reactors.
Speaker 2 (39:28):
Well again, if we get energy prices down and we
get energy being delivered in abundance around the world, everything
goes down. But right now we have this climate hoax
going on that says, oh, somehow our clean energy is
contributing to you know, man made global warming. They don't
(39:50):
say it that way anymore. But the reality is all
that is is a tax and a regulatory effort to
seize you know, money for the spending that's that's gone
on and the really theft of you know, hardworking Americans prosperity.
That's all it is. I mean, somehow they're going, well,
(40:14):
we're at thirty five trillion, we want to be at
fifty trillion dollars in debt. How are we going to
pay for that? Oh, I know, we just steal everybody's money,
you know, based on a phony crisis. The reality is
the world's not getting warmer. The world is getting cooler.
And if you look at real science, you know, real
(40:34):
science knows that the world has cooled, it is not warmed.
Real science knows that man does not create greenhouse gases
more than volcanoes, more than you know, every mammal on Earth.
And and when you when you look at the real science.
The reality is is that other countries, if it is
(40:57):
true that man is destroying the atmosphere with greenhouse gases,
not pollution, right, pollution. Nobody wants dirty air or dirty water,
or putting chemicals into our drinking water and things like that.
But the reality is is that none of these things
are going to change. That's I got on a diatribe,
(41:18):
you did. But the reality is all this adds up
to well, and it's more cost to maintain your lifestyle
for the next couple of decades.
Speaker 3 (41:28):
Well, it's more cost for us, but we are the
cleanest you know, continent where we have clean.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Air and water because of the regulations. Yeah, exactly, that
none of the rest of the world follows.
Speaker 3 (41:38):
Well, we're outsourcing it to other countries that don't have
those regulations, that don't produce clean air and water because
of the pollution.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
They're firing they're coal factories.
Speaker 3 (41:49):
Yes, So it's just it's just counteracting each other, just
like monetary policy and fiscal policy are butting.
Speaker 2 (41:57):
Heads exactly right. You cannot can control inflation monetarily without
fiscally making changes, you know, out of Washington. And so
this is where we are, and the best thing that
you can do is call the wise money Guys John Scambray,
Touseeppe Vescani at nine six seven thirty five hundred. We
(42:20):
will help you plan for whatever the future throws at
us to give you the highest probability to being able
to maintain your lifestyle throughout the rest of retirement. Called
nine six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Hope you
enjoyed the show. Have a wonderful weekend by all.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
Talk to you next weekend.
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