April 10, 2025 • 43 mins
Alert. Alert. Tariffs are coming. Hosts John and Giuseppe are watching, but they're not too worried. One Source clients are positioned to reduce risk in extreme volatility. At the same time, we guard for growth. Plus the effects Tariffs have on the US GDP, and alternative investments for you to consider. The Wise Money Guys!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to the Wisemoney Guys Radio Show. I'm your co host,
John Scambrian. I'm here with my partner just up you Wisconsin,
and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize in helping
people who are retired are about to retire manage their money.
And boy, do we have a conversation for you today.
Wild week, a wild week. But before we get started,
(00:35):
you know. To find more information about us, you can
always visit our website at Wysemoneyguys dot com and at
Wysemoneyguys dot com. You can scroll to the bottom for disclosures. Also,
feel free to click on the live chat for basic
questions and then also you can register for either a
(00:55):
one on one consultation or register for our workshop on
April thirtieth from six to seven thirty pm at the
old Spaghetti Factory in Roseville called nine one six ninety
six seven thirty five hundred. So, boy, I can't help myself,
but I got to say, I mean how many times
(01:17):
did we have to say what we would say? And
I'm going to say, I told you so, I told
you so, I told you so, and for really when
I mean, I guess back in December we started saying
definitely this year, start reducing stocks. Certainly, we we ramped
up that that that advice and counsel to whoever's listening.
(01:38):
And certainly our clients who are over you know, have
benefited who decided to hire us. And we found, like
just recently, some new clients and you know, here's a
guy sixty eight years old, retired, no debt, has everything
he needs. In fact, you know, the the seven figure
money that he has that's going to go to his kids,
and it was ninety six percent. And we looked at
(02:01):
him and we went why yeah, and he's like, well,
I just don't. I just don't. I don't look at it.
It's it's done fine. And so thankfully he now has
hired us. And we're certainly always appreciative of clients who
put their trust and faith in us to have their backs.
(02:21):
And that's what we're here for. I mean, we're here
to you know, we got asked this question a lot
yisseppe and I were at a vendor conference the last
couple of days and we got this question, you know, asked, well,
what's your style, how are you doing it? What do
you do? And my answer was, well, the first thing
that we do is we look to how we can
(02:43):
reduce risk and mitigate risk in people's portfolios. And that
might be just as simple as going your ninety six
percent stocks.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Why just identifying what your goals are, your timeline, your
risk tolerance, and then figuring out how hard do your
assets actually need to work for you. Not not hey,
this looks great and shiny and let's go chase performance,
but actually how much risk do you actually need to take?
And if you're taking too much risk, and that's what
we identify, then let's take some unnecessary risk off the table.
And that's what we've been talking about, not only not
(03:14):
only this year, but at the end of last year
because we figured it'd be a bumpy ride at the
beginning of the year, and talked about what are some
of the other asset classes outside of stocks, because stocks
have been just getting the headlines obviously with an AI
and so on and so forth. In twenty twenty three
and especially twenty twenty four, and we've been talking about
you know, alternatives and what some of those alternatives are
and some of the returns, and how their standard deviation,
(03:37):
which is a measurement of volatility, is much lower than
you know, other asset classes out there. Also fixed income,
and you know, the ten year treasury yield we've been
talking about, it was up at four point eight in February,
you know percent, and it's down below four percent. So
all of those people who have been getting into nice,
you know, healthy yielding bonds that are paying north of
(04:00):
five percent, they're also now getting some price appreciation and
helps buffer that blow and creates that balance that used
to be right because twenty twenty two wiped that all out.
But now you're getting a little bit of a balancing
effect when you have a balanced portfolio, when you have
some other acid classes instead of just stocks.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
So I think we're going to spend the day and
you should, got my goodness. If you haven't been listening
to us or implementing any of the things that we're suggesting,
you know, you probably should. If you've if you've ridden things,
you know down certainly we have some ideas on that,
(04:39):
and the biggest idea of course is come in for
a new obligation consultation. But first and foremost, let's before
we really dive into you know, more strategy, more type
of categories or specific investments. We've got to talk about
the scenarios for terror US. And I just want to say,
(05:03):
right off the bat, you said, John, okay, you coach
that I think the market reaction to tariffs is overblown.
Now that doesn't mean that I think there's not more
bumps coming. And I don't know that we're at a bottom.
But the scenario that I think that's going to play
(05:23):
out is, and we already had a glimpse of it already,
is countries that have some pretty smart leadership. They might
be smaller countries that are seeing an opportunity now to
take away you know, manufacturing and material needs and and
(05:46):
other labor. What's the word I'm looking for driving Yep, Well,
I guess that's in manufacturing. Are now seeing an opportunity
to where they can go, Okay, great, we can get
a piece of China's action, we can get a piece
of India's action, we can get a piece of Korea's action.
So Vietnam first to the table yesterday, going we'll we'll
(06:10):
make our tariffs zero. And what do you think Trump's
gonna do? Trump will go, this is what he's wanted.
He goes, well, you know what, our tariff to you
will be zero. And you watch from from the the
the the string of comp countries that it might be Ireland,
it might be Scotland, it might be something in South America,
(06:30):
like you know, Argentina, where you have a new conservative
leadership and they've been you know, getting more fiscally responsible,
and they go, you know what, let's partner with the
United States and we'll go to zero. And then the
next thing, you know, and it's kind of.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
Like when Ireland lowered their corporate tax rate.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Other countries followed.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
You know, just everybody, a lot of corporation is just flooded.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
So that's what I think is going to take place.
And that's why I think, you know, oh great, if
you've already I guess I'm jumping to strategy. If you
already rode things down, you know, but you're in good positions.
You're in things that aren't you know, fly by night
companies you weren't speculating or they're.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
Not fundamentally hit or going to be fundamentally hit by
these terriffs.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
If they drag out, you stay in those at these
this point, and I think the thing that most people do,
except for.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
I want to point out if you hadn't rebalanced and
you're still overweight, you know, like the client that's ninety
plus percent stocks. I mean, this is a hint, right,
this is why you're not overweight and chasing performance if
you don't need to.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Yeah, true, true, true, true, at But I don't know
where that came from.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
We just got off a plane, came back from you
came back from Dallas. But I don't remember the IM
saying that.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
No, they never said true ad. I don't even know
where that came from. But clearly you know, we've been
doing this a long time. And the fact of the
matter is do we like it? Do we like to
see this? Did we did we predict it was coming? Yes? Yes,
and and or I should say yes, no and no.
(08:14):
But the reality is it's here and it's now. Don't
make mistakes and the biggest mistake. And I'm going to
be a broken record on this because it always fascinates
me why somebody, especially if you have a Charles Schwab
account and and or a fidelit. I don't care who
it is, but mainly Schwab because we're affiliated with with Schwab.
(08:36):
And you're going it alone and you're like this gentleman
sixty eight years old, single, and and my my question
is why why would you do that? We've been doing this,
you know, I've been in this industry over thirty years
now you and it almost twenty.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
They're just riding the roller coaster. And that might be
okay when you're younger, but when you're later, you know,
later on in your life, you know, I don't I
don't see why you need to continue to write now.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
It doesn't matter how much money you have, you shouldn't
ride the roller coaster unnecessarily. Let me talk about, you know,
going back again where they asked us, well, you know,
why are you different? What what's your what's your main
philosophical things that you do as as portfolio managers? And
I said, well, first and foremost, which you already said,
(09:24):
is we focus on risk and capital preservation as our
first priority. Again, that doesn't mean you're not going to
have a you know, a good performing UH investment portfolio
or opportunity, but that's what we worry about first, especially
because most of our clients are retired, so we don't
(09:47):
want them to take unnecessary risk to get the types
of returns as you said, that you need to have,
not you know, pieing the sky want to have, you
need to have. And the way we do that to
get you the returns you need to have is our
second focus is on income producing investments. I'm John Scamber
(10:11):
and I'm here with my partner Wisconsin. And the third thing,
so I said, there's a third thing that we really
specialize in when it comes to managing people's money. Just
to recap the first was a focus on capital preservation.
The second is income, and income is so crucial. We
(10:35):
were looking at our numbers on our overall clients' assets,
and here you see what the market. You know, the
nasdak's way into bear territory.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Which is just this week, both NASDAK and S and
P are down over eighty percent.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Right, and the NASDAC for the year is down. You know,
we're going to double digit, we're going into bear market territory.
And I think it's officially in bear market territory as
of Friday, which just means it's down more than ten percent,
it's a correction. Well, but we haven't hit it yet,
I don't think so, but but the correction is definitely there.
(11:16):
That's also bear market's also considered a crash. Right when
it's twenty percent or more, that is a crash. Now
most people they hear those words and they're they're freaking out.
But here's some of the offset. If you have a
focus on income things that pay you while you're invested
(11:40):
in them, which is a massive focus of ours, then
the loss and maybe value of the position that you're
in gets offset by the dividends or interest that the
investment pays. So we were looking at our overall book
a business which is in the hundreds of millions, and
(12:03):
and what I saw was okay, we looked at a
very small amount of capital depreciation, you know where you know,
we had about two what was it two point.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Well on one section of the book, yeah, I was
which is almost excuse me, one hundred million, right, and
overall was down two million for year to date.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
But then two million three I think to be exactly.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
And we had just over a million in income.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
So when you take that and you go, okay, you know,
that's only a million three on your right on that
portion is almost one hundred million. You're talking about, you know,
one point three one point five percent down when the
market's down and the people who have overweighting in stocks
(12:56):
could be down ten to twenty percent or more.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Right and again, especially if you're just overloaded on all
the tech names and that that comprises what's within your
portfolio and don't pay dividends, then you're really looking at
your account and saying, oh my gosh, because you're just
seeing the red and there's nothing coming back in to
help offset that.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
So what's really important about what we're talking about right
now is are you with the type of talent that
that has been on top of what was to come
and what will come and knows what to do based
on the economic conditions and the uncertain conditions that we're
(13:41):
in and will be in. Are you are you the
right person to handle things yourself? Are you with the
right firm or you just in a passive type of
relationship where you're not getting So we've done what we
said and talked about would do weekend and week out,
(14:03):
and so it boggles the mind that with the type
of information, the type of professionals that are out there
like ourselves that can help people, you know, do what
we do and not be down ten twenty percent right now.
It always boggles the minds my mind that people take
(14:26):
so long to come to the decision.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
Usually that's usually it's these events that stir things up
and people are like, Okay, I need some help with this,
and you know, we don't have a crystal ball. I mean,
John are the worst. Yeah. John earlier was saying, you know,
we predicted and I told you so. But the reality
is we don't have a crystal ball. We didn't know
that there's going to be two, you know, four or
five six percent down days. I mean, we just knew
(14:50):
it was going to be a bumpy ride, and so
we tried to start diversifying some of the allocations of
portfolios into other asset classes. Aren't that aren't going to
have that big roller coaster, right because we knew at
some point it's going to hit. We don't know how
far down the market goes. We don't know if it's
going to be a correction, if it's going to be
a bear market. You know, there's certain levels and things
that we can look at within charts and say, well,
(15:12):
if this support level breaks, then it can go down
another But the reality is is, you know, those are
just forecasts and it's not a it's not a definitive
like this is what's actually going to play out. But
if you know those things are out there, if some
of the signs are out there, like hey, things are overvalued, Hey,
I think you know things are a little bit too lofty.
You know, the tariff thing, we knew. It's not surprised.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
I know the tariff they said it was com an
April second. Trump.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
Yeah, Trump was saying it all during his campaign. And
what we know if Trump is you know what he
can paign campaigns about, he usually kind of follows through.
And so that's what we knew he was going to
push through. And that's what we figured at the beginning
of the year is going to be bumpy. Now, how
long is it going to last? How far down is
the market going to go? And that is a you know,
a question out there, and now you're hearing the word
recession and how far down to the market going to go?
(15:58):
We're gonna go into a bear market, that we're going
to go into recession? How deep is it going to go?
The Fed's going to cut rates now and we ran
actually ran some data using AI because the's a lot
of data out there to give some scenarios because we
have and John I've been talking, you know, because nobody
knows the exact game plan, you know, like we'll get
(16:20):
conversations from our clients and say, what do you think
Trump is doing?
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Like what.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
What's this game plan? And nobody's going to know exactly right,
maybe this is part of his art of the deal
and we don't know the little nuances to the art
of the deal, but you know, we do have some
thoughts of what might be going on. And you know,
previous to Trump, the situation that we were in as far.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
As old predictions and you if you tone it down
and go, oh, we have some things.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
So that's how it sounds. I mean, I know I'm
a little congestive from allergies and what have you. But yeah,
I don't know that sounded like a princess.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
No, I would be accused more of being a princess
than you. But anyway, go on.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But our thought process is, you know what could be
playing out is prior to Trump taking office, the state
of our economy was, yes, it was resilient, we had
low unemployment, but there was a little thing. There was
things under the hood.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
We still have low unemployment, by the way, we still do.
But in fact, there was a great jobs number yesterday
Friday or Thursday or Wednesday that came out that was
more job growth than was expected.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Yeah, which is good news, and we'll take all the
good news we can get right now. But the state
of our economy was it was resilient, low unemployment. The
economy was doing good, the stock market was doing good.
But some of the things under the hood, when you
look into it, was saying, okay, well, we had a
lot of government deficit spending. We had a lot of
job hiring on the federal government side. So it wasn't
(17:58):
pure organic growth, right, So we had to take that
into account. And the Feds cut rates. And we've said
it before, we think the Fed's cut a little bit
too much, too fast to to you know, to battle inflation.
Think it was still the government spending going on. You
didn't want to stimulate the economy because it was already
being stimulated by overspending government. And so they put themselves
(18:20):
in the corner. And then they stopped cutting, and they
put themselves in the corner where again get well, no,
they have been right after their last.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
Cutting and they never got out of the corner.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Yeah once once they did their last cut in December,
and that's it. They put themselves in a corner because
inflation showed that it was sticky. So how are you
going to accomplish lowering inflation, lowering rates, lowering energy prices.
You slow things down. So maybe the push towards tariffs
is you disrupt right, you slow things down in the
(18:51):
economies and the market. Right. We've seen and we mentioned
it before, the ten year treasury going from four point
eight percent down to below four, right, which things go
down and it's not easy, and who knows, you got
a time it, but things will go down. Now you're
seeing in headlines and the trade traders and the markets
are betting that there's going to be up to I've
seen up to five rate cuts this year, right, and
(19:14):
I don't think that's going to happen. But we played
around with scenarios and we get to it because there's
a lot to cover, yep.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
So so we're gonna have to keep going back and
back and back again. Just it's it's so important that
I hope as many people are heating, you know, our
advice or our counsel or our warning, whatever the case
may be. And there's two opportunities too. Even if you
(19:41):
don't hire us a client, we're fine with it. But
come in and see us, let us, you know, give
you more counsel on what we're doing to really, I mean,
quite frankly, we're out performing this market drastically. Let us
show you how we're doing it, and you could take
that advice and and maybe implement some of the things yourself,
(20:03):
but will also show you which we showed this this
this recent new person who by the way, came to
a workshop right and then came and sat down with
us and then decided to hire us. And you know,
it wasn't an overnight decision. It was very thoughtful and
methodical and it was the right thing for him. But
(20:23):
we did we didn't pressure him. I mean, we don't know.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
I was just given an opportunity to, you know, look
at his personal assets, get to know him more personally,
where you know, how his money's important to him, what
he wants to have done with it. And after we
looked at it and saw that, you know, you're just
taking too much risk doesn't really make sense.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
But generally, you know, a lot of people don't hire
professionals like us because they think our fees are expensive.
And that was one of the minor conversations we have had.
And then he had a huge percentage in one particular
fund and that particular fund was had a point seven
(21:03):
to eight expense ratio, so over three quarters of one
percent annually, and our fee to him is one percent.
So by by reducing you know, funds and other costs
most of the time, and we find this very often
where people, especially people who have funds and ETFs in
(21:27):
their portfolios, that we offset a big chunk of our
cost and sometimes all of it.
Speaker 3 (21:34):
And and the reality is, you know, at the end
of the day, it's all about how do we get
you from point A to point B net of costs?
And that has to make sense no matter what it is,
no matter what's inside your portfolio, but how how it's
allocated in comparison to your roadmap and your plan and
being aligned getting you their net of costs, that's that's
(21:56):
what matters.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
So we're going to talk about the third thing that
we focus on as as portfolio managers. You're listening to
the wise money guys, John scam Ran, I'm here with
my partner joseep You Viscounty, and we we flew back
and instead of going home, you know, because we were
at a two day conference, instead of going home, we
(22:20):
we knew it was too important, too crazy of a week,
too crazy of a week to not get out some
you know thoughts, some advice. Hopefully that that people will take,
you know, based on everything that went on this week
and so far this year, that we still came in,
(22:44):
you know, to do you know, very current, very relevant show,
because at this point we don't want you to panic.
But if you have no clue what to do, you know,
don't procrastinate anymore, don't don't let your account go down
farther without somebody helping you. Give us a call at
(23:07):
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. I
absolutely guarantee it will be a great use of your time.
Or if you just want to come in because you
love spaghetti so much, or chicken palm or chicken palm
or lasagna, right, I think so those are the three. Well, Fija,
(23:29):
you know, we don't want you to be out there
and not get some sort of help, So either come
sit down with us face to face, which I've already
guaranteed will be a great use of your time. It
will also be and I do guarantee a great use
of your time, to come to the old Spaghetti Factory
(23:49):
on April thirtieth in Roseville from six to seven thirty pm.
That's a Wednesday called nine one six nine six, seven
thirty five. So let's talk about the third thing, because
I bet you a lot of people aren't thinking this
at all. That growth is still an opportunity.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
Right.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
We're we're now looking, We're now scouring. We're going, Okay,
is it in the mag seven? Is Nvidia cheap? Here?
Is Google cheap? Here? Is Amazon? Chief Palenteer, Microsoft Tesla.
We're reviewing those things. We're looking at the data that
we can get our hands on, and we get a
(24:32):
tremendous amount of research and analytical data and have tools
to help us navigate all the information that's out there
to decide. And we we actually got out of a
few positions that have now gone to cash and then
you know, we'll consider and looking for placements. Some of
(24:54):
that might go to structured notes that we've talked about
last week, the week before last, the week before that,
so on and so forth. Some probably will not go
to bonds at this point because I bet your rates,
you know, here you go. We said don't miss I
mean a year ago, I said, don't let six percent
(25:15):
rates pass you by. Then we were saying, don't let
five and a half you know, five to five and
a half rates pass you by. Well, guess what they
passed you by. So now it's about alternatives where your
focus is still on total return, which is still important
for growth as well as is their value starting to
(25:38):
pop up? Will there be value unlocked value in investments?
And I think there will be.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Yeah. And what happens is when the market, you know,
panics because of an event. What happens is there are
some names that go down rightfully so because they are
going to be directly impacted by whatever event is taking place.
So in this case, I've so we're talking about tariffs.
But then there's gonna be some other names that aren't
really impacted at all by what is being what's been
(26:08):
going on, but they're just being drugged down because everything
else is going down. And that can that can create
an opportunity for getting into those names or adding into
those names if you already own them, because they're just
going down with everything else. It was kind of like,
you know, two thousand and eight when we had the
credit crisis, definitely scary, everything was going down, but you
(26:29):
had some you know, banks out there because banks just
got slaughtered. But you had some banks out there where
they were fundamentally sound like Wells Fargo, JP Morgan. They
didn't actually need tarp money to stay afloat, but they
got it anyways. But their stocks just got hammered.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Right, Oh, I remember Wells Fargo was down like ten bucks,
ten eleven, twelve.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Bucks, and Bank of America got down to three.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Within like twenty four months, it was back to thirty,
you know, thirty bucks, and then a year or two
past that it was to fifty bucks. I mean, talk
about opportunity.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Hard to time the bottom, So you know, is right
now a good time is next week? Is it? You know?
Next month? Who knows? But you know this is where
you can start if you have some cash, right and
you're on the opposite side of the spectrum we've been
talking about people who are a little bit too heavy
into stocks, been chasing performance, have those technology names because
(27:23):
twenty three and twenty four were so great. You know,
there's the opposite of this, the spectrum where people have
just been sitting in cash because they've been like, I
don't know, I don't trust seeing so on and so forth.
This could be a good time where you take some
of the cash, you start finding value in getting into
these names.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
And here's what's just absolutely crucial. This is another mistake
that I see over and over and over again. You
try to time things perfectly, and you go, oh, I
am so good that I can get out at the
top and come back in at the bottom. There's no
such person entity process system that nor does it need
(28:03):
to time the perfect top and time the perfect bottom.
But if you were properly diversified and you you didn't
have unnecessary risk. And as Joseppie said, now you're sitting
on cash, you start easing in, but you've got to know,
you know what you're easing into. And so here I'm
(28:25):
going to say it again. You know you're too late.
You know, if you listen to this and you hadn't
called us yet or come to one of our workshops
or seminars yet, you were too late for that. But
you're not too late to get help still and know
how to take advantage of what's going on, because this
is an opportunity. We haven't had this sort of reversal
(28:50):
in the markets since twenty twenty, and you know, twenty
two wasn't even as bad as a base on a
daily basis, and what we've seen in just three months
it harkens back to twenty twenty, and you know, there
was a lot of good deals to be made and
(29:11):
we are finding and creating and putting together portfolios, you know,
with great investments in them that that can weather this storm.
And this storm, like most, won't be long lived in
my opinion. Well, I don't think it's going to be
a multi year bear market like in two thousand and
(29:33):
eight that you mentioned, or like in two thousand to
two thousand and three. Could it be similar to a
twenty twenty two or a twenty twenty. Remember twenty twenty
ended up being a good year.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
Well that's because of all the stimulus. I don't think
you're going to have that again. But it's also not
twenty twenty where the whole world shuts down.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Have to be something negative about something positive.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
No, I'm saying twenty twenty even though we've had volatile
days similar to twenty twenty, Twenty twenty was a totally
different year. It was it was a complete outlier. Nobody
knew what the hell was going on the whole world
and government shut down. Nobody's gonna forecast anything. You can't
tell what was going on. So luckily we had all
that stimulus, which saved us. Had that not been down,
(30:13):
I mean, that would have been a totally different picture.
But I think this is a little bit more predictable
in that this tariff trigg war can only live so long.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Let's dive into the scenarios that you came up with today.
So I already said what one that I since and
I'm already seen and believe will happen.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
Countries coming to the negotiation country negotiat.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Countries are gonna look at this, especially smaller countries that
feel they've also been taken advantage by China, you know, big,
big countries like that. Certainly China is the second biggest economy,
but it doesn't matter. They've you know, taken their their
ways and have tried to, you know, infiltrate and decimate
(31:00):
eight you know, the small countries around them. And I
just love.
Speaker 3 (31:03):
They were a small country at a point.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Oh yeah, until until you know Carter, than the Clintons,
then the Obamas, then the Bidens, and they turned around
and just made China that they are today. And now
I personally love the fact that Vietnam's the first of
the table to say, you know what US, we want
to work with. You will go to zero, and Trump's
(31:27):
response will be We'll go to zero and you watch.
So that's the first prediction. I think that.
Speaker 3 (31:32):
These there's going to be more of that.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
There'll be more of that, and the tariff war will
be short lived because then China, the European Union, Canada.
Talk about adversaries, I don't mean enemies, I mean financial adversaries.
So far, they're not wanting to play in the sandbox.
They want to continue to damage the US financially.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
But then to be a pain point.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
But the European Union, just how how smart does the
UK look for leaving the European Union right now because
they're not even close to US impacted. So that just
tells you that these regimes, because the European Union is
nothing more than a regime. And you know what, I'm
(32:21):
glad we're taking it to the EU, we're taking it
to Canada, We're taking it to Mexico. We're taking it too.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
Child leveling the playing field right.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
And but here's the thing again, despite saying that I
think it's going to be short lived, I really do.
I don't see it going on, you know, to the
end of the year and even into next year. I'm
talking three four months at the most before somebody goes
Uncle taps out. Right, they're in a they're in a
really terrible you know, choke hold, and and they go,
(32:55):
you know, we're tapping out.
Speaker 3 (32:56):
Well, it's not good for anybody, us included. So high
tariffs across the board, and everybody's saying we're gonna tear
for you higher and this and that, so and so forth.
It doesn't end well for anybody. So whether somebody's in
the sandbox or not, or wants to play the game,
the end result is people are.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
Gonna have to nations, less money for everybody.
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Countries are gonna have to come to the table and
negotiate and lower the bars. That's just the end of it.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
So we gotta go to a break. Want you to
stay tuned. We're gonna get into the other potential scenarios,
and then we'll end with just that we have another
great investment that if if you get a hold of
us and come on in again, you won't be disappointed.
You're listening to the wise Mandy. Guys, I'm your co
host John Scambray and I'm here with Joseebba Visconsin. And
(33:43):
what an exciting show. I mean, see, I get fired
up about this, you know what I mean. We don't
get these opportunities all the time, and to me, this
is an opportunity. It's an opportunity to make money and
to potentially we now have the the the well, the
opportunity to get into investments that you couldn't have got
(34:07):
into just a couple of months ago, sir, exactly. And
you would never go oh, and we would never go, oh,
let's buy something at the very top.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Well, that's what happens, right, Like, we were getting interest
from clients like, hey, what about cryptocurrency? Do you guys
have this is cryptocurrency?
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Was this one hundred and five thousand, yeah or whatever?
Speaker 3 (34:27):
And we're like, well, yeah, you want to you don't
want to start getting in there?
Speaker 2 (34:30):
What about n video when Nvidio was one hundred and
forty five. I got to get in video and we
had people you can't talk them out of it, and
we go, okay, I wouldn't, you know, just I would
do a little bit. And they're probably or people that
won't get out of a particular stock, and we and
we beg them to and and some do and some don't.
But the reality is is these things always shape up
(34:53):
to be one of those things where you look back
and you go, I should have got in, should have
bought this, I should have listened to John Scambray and
just Seppi Wisconti, and I didn't. Well, don't let that
be the case again. I don't. I don't. I mean,
I don't know how much more we could do as
far as you know, giving you the tools, he might
(35:15):
lose your voice, You'll lose I'm losing.
Speaker 3 (35:18):
I'm already losing something because I sound different now.
Speaker 2 (35:22):
No, I feel for you that congestion you're going through.
That's but okay, So let's I mean, there is like
everything there could be, things get worse, right, things kind
of moderate, right. I think that's what I think. What
what will happen? Second to obviously that the correction that
(35:44):
we already had is things will kind of moderate first,
but dive into your you know, you created these scenarios
that have a lot more thought into them than just that.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
Is that because I have glasses on right now.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Yeah, you look smart at least, So.
Speaker 3 (36:01):
Yeah, what I want to nobody knows what the future holds.
But what John Ives speculated is and what I was
going to in our previous segment was the FEDS put
themselves back in a corner. They can't lower rates anymore,
and especially if inflation stay sticky. Well, what in the
past has wiped out inflation? Was it the Feds? No,
(36:23):
it's typically recession. Things have to slow down in the
market and the economy that brings inflation down. That's what
has happened in the past.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
It's destruction.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
So therefore, I think we think a potential scenario is
that the push on tariffs right, not only leveling the
playing field, but disrupting slowing things down. Right, We've already
explained that interest rates have come down by the market
moving them down. Energy has come down or per barrel, right,
(36:54):
that has come down. So I came up with scenarios
using AI, using in most recent economic data out there,
and said what if in the next two quarters, right,
because I don't think it's gonna last that long, Like
like you said, I don't think it is so in
the next two quarters, if the tariff push and retaliatory
(37:16):
scenario continues on, how's that going to affect GDP, right,
which is the overall measurement of how great our economy
is growing or contracting. The other scenario is, what if
after a couple quarters it subsides to the point where
there's negotiation, but just a ten percent blanket tariffs stay intact, right,
(37:39):
that we're imposing on other nations, but then the other
extra tariffs that we're putting on other nations.
Speaker 2 (37:44):
Goes away, right?
Speaker 3 (37:46):
How would that impact the economy overall? The other is
what if things are slowing down so much? Right? Trump
has been calling for the Feds to lower interest rates,
So what if this is kind of part of the
push to push Feds into a corner and then they're now,
you know before they said they're not in a hurry
to lower rates, Well, now maybe it's changing that position
(38:09):
and they start cutting rates. What if there's cutting rates
and retaliatory tariffs go away, and we just have the
ten percent blanket how would that impact the economy or
the GDP. And obviously, the first scenario, if tariffs continue
to drag out this trade war, then it ends up
in recession. Right, how low does it go? Who knows,
(38:31):
but it'll definitely trigger a recession. The other in the
next couple quarters. The other is what if the retaliatory
and the elevated tariffs go away and just a blanket
ten percent tariffs. That puts US in a situation where
we have positive GDP and we avoid recession. Now, if
it gets to a point where things slow down so much,
(38:52):
the FED comes in and they start cutting rates and
they just I just put a prediction out there of
like fifty basis points so to one quarter point rate
cuts out there, what would happen? Then we would have
actually on either scenario where there's a ten percent blanket
tariff or there's you know, some of the retaliatory tariffs
(39:12):
either or we actually have growth of two percent or better.
And especially if tariffs start to come off and we
still have the blanket ten percent and we have a
little bit of stimulus where Fed start cutting rates, it
actually puts US into like the almost three percent range
for GDP growth, which would be great. And I think,
like I said before, I think nations are going to
(39:34):
come to a pain point. You know, I saw an
article just pop up. You know, Australia and Japan stock
market is at eight month lows. Nobody's going to want
to continue.
Speaker 2 (39:43):
That now, because you know, there's the it is a
lagging wealth effect, but it is a wealth effect that
is meaningful because a lot of people use that excess
you know, value to purchase things quite frankly, when making
money in stocks or or their homes have gone you know,
(40:04):
up considerably, and they can unlock equity, you know, so
on and so forth. We're spenders. I mean, the world
you know, loves to spend and loves to consume and
loves to enjoy and.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
Borrow and rage they borrow, and rates coming down will
help spurs some of that borrowing up.
Speaker 2 (40:21):
And that's where we start getting into our conspiracy theory,
where you know, is this to really get to a
position where rates are much lower. We've already seen the
ten year that we mentioned drop below four. It's been
above four stubborn leaf for a while now, and now
we're down to three nine. Might even go onto the
three eight five, three eight seven somewhere that why is
(40:43):
that significant? Well, you know, you see that mortgages follow
the ten year treasury. You'll see that, you know, many
other types of loans follow, you know, the decrease in
the tree. And then if you get the manipulated you know,
loan cuts or or or rate cuts through FED funds,
then you'll see banks really start to you know, change
(41:07):
their u rates because they're getting their cost of capitals
going down, so they can pass that on to the
consumer in the form of a lower cost for for
for debt.
Speaker 3 (41:19):
Or it might have been one of those people in
the last year where you got bought a house or
a condo and you got a seven percent interest rate
and now you're gonna you can go out and refinance
for six percent?
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Yeah, or or what about hey, dare I say it
below five? If if if rates dip to five or
it or below, you will see a refine boom. You
will see equity coming out of people's house and the
economy will go you know nuts. And so again that's
(41:49):
where that's what I think is going to happen. And
let's let's let's talk about what's important. What's important is
being positioned so that no matter what the scenario is,
you are going to outperform whatever outperformance means. It might
be your cash flow, it might be reducing your risk.
(42:10):
It might be now I haven't had growth, I've had
cash and and and no money in the market and
on the sideline. So it might be now's the time
to start easing in, you know, to opportunities that are
way more you know better from a from a purchase
price perspective, whatever the case may be. Is to say
(42:32):
it again, don't let this window go by, because every
single window like this over the over the thirty years
I've been in business, there's one regret that everybody always has,
and it starts with I wish I would have and
you can you can complete the rest. So you know,
(42:54):
if you're just not ready yet to come in and
see us, that's fine. Let us feed you at the
old Spaghetti Factory from six to seven thirty pm in Roseville.
And you know that is a very comfortable, non you
know pressure way to see what we do and get
more information again, or come in if you can't make
(43:17):
the The April almost said August the April thirtieth, you know, seminar,
come in call nine one six ninety six seven thirty
five hundred. Hope you enjoyed listening to the wise many guys,
John Scambrida, deceptive was gone. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 3 (43:34):
Talk to you next weekend.
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to the Wisemoney Guys Radio Show. I'm your co host,
John Scambrian. I'm here with my partner just up you Wisconsin,
and we are certified portfolio managers that specialize in helping
people who are retired are about to retire manage their money.
And boy, do we have a conversation for you today.
Wild week, a wild week. But before we get started,
(00:35):
you know. To find more information about us, you can
always visit our website at Wysemoneyguys dot com and at
Wysemoneyguys dot com. You can scroll to the bottom for disclosures. Also,
feel free to click on the live chat for basic
questions and then also you can register for either a
(00:55):
one on one consultation or register for our workshop on
April thirtieth from six to seven thirty pm at the
old Spaghetti Factory in Roseville called nine one six ninety
six seven thirty five hundred. So, boy, I can't help myself,
but I got to say, I mean how many times
(01:17):
did we have to say what we would say? And
I'm going to say, I told you so, I told
you so, I told you so, and for really when
I mean, I guess back in December we started saying
definitely this year, start reducing stocks. Certainly, we we ramped
up that that that advice and counsel to whoever's listening.
(01:38):
And certainly our clients who are over you know, have
benefited who decided to hire us. And we found, like
just recently, some new clients and you know, here's a
guy sixty eight years old, retired, no debt, has everything
he needs. In fact, you know, the the seven figure
money that he has that's going to go to his kids,
and it was ninety six percent. And we looked at
(02:01):
him and we went why yeah, and he's like, well,
I just don't. I just don't. I don't look at it.
It's it's done fine. And so thankfully he now has
hired us. And we're certainly always appreciative of clients who
put their trust and faith in us to have their backs.
(02:21):
And that's what we're here for. I mean, we're here
to you know, we got asked this question a lot
yisseppe and I were at a vendor conference the last
couple of days and we got this question, you know, asked, well,
what's your style, how are you doing it? What do
you do? And my answer was, well, the first thing
that we do is we look to how we can
(02:43):
reduce risk and mitigate risk in people's portfolios. And that
might be just as simple as going your ninety six
percent stocks.
Speaker 3 (02:52):
Why just identifying what your goals are, your timeline, your
risk tolerance, and then figuring out how hard do your
assets actually need to work for you. Not not hey,
this looks great and shiny and let's go chase performance,
but actually how much risk do you actually need to take?
And if you're taking too much risk, and that's what
we identify, then let's take some unnecessary risk off the table.
And that's what we've been talking about, not only not
(03:14):
only this year, but at the end of last year
because we figured it'd be a bumpy ride at the
beginning of the year, and talked about what are some
of the other asset classes outside of stocks, because stocks
have been just getting the headlines obviously with an AI
and so on and so forth. In twenty twenty three
and especially twenty twenty four, and we've been talking about
you know, alternatives and what some of those alternatives are
and some of the returns, and how their standard deviation,
(03:37):
which is a measurement of volatility, is much lower than
you know, other asset classes out there. Also fixed income,
and you know, the ten year treasury yield we've been
talking about, it was up at four point eight in February,
you know percent, and it's down below four percent. So
all of those people who have been getting into nice,
you know, healthy yielding bonds that are paying north of
(04:00):
five percent, they're also now getting some price appreciation and
helps buffer that blow and creates that balance that used
to be right because twenty twenty two wiped that all out.
But now you're getting a little bit of a balancing
effect when you have a balanced portfolio, when you have
some other acid classes instead of just stocks.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
So I think we're going to spend the day and
you should, got my goodness. If you haven't been listening
to us or implementing any of the things that we're suggesting,
you know, you probably should. If you've if you've ridden things,
you know down certainly we have some ideas on that,
(04:39):
and the biggest idea of course is come in for
a new obligation consultation. But first and foremost, let's before
we really dive into you know, more strategy, more type
of categories or specific investments. We've got to talk about
the scenarios for terror US. And I just want to say,
(05:03):
right off the bat, you said, John, okay, you coach
that I think the market reaction to tariffs is overblown.
Now that doesn't mean that I think there's not more
bumps coming. And I don't know that we're at a bottom.
But the scenario that I think that's going to play
(05:23):
out is, and we already had a glimpse of it already,
is countries that have some pretty smart leadership. They might
be smaller countries that are seeing an opportunity now to
take away you know, manufacturing and material needs and and
(05:46):
other labor. What's the word I'm looking for driving Yep, Well,
I guess that's in manufacturing. Are now seeing an opportunity
to where they can go, Okay, great, we can get
a piece of China's action, we can get a piece
of India's action, we can get a piece of Korea's action.
So Vietnam first to the table yesterday, going we'll we'll
(06:10):
make our tariffs zero. And what do you think Trump's
gonna do? Trump will go, this is what he's wanted.
He goes, well, you know what, our tariff to you
will be zero. And you watch from from the the
the the string of comp countries that it might be Ireland,
it might be Scotland, it might be something in South America,
(06:30):
like you know, Argentina, where you have a new conservative
leadership and they've been you know, getting more fiscally responsible,
and they go, you know what, let's partner with the
United States and we'll go to zero. And then the
next thing, you know, and it's kind of.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
Like when Ireland lowered their corporate tax rate.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
Other countries followed.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
You know, just everybody, a lot of corporation is just flooded.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
So that's what I think is going to take place.
And that's why I think, you know, oh great, if
you've already I guess I'm jumping to strategy. If you
already rode things down, you know, but you're in good positions.
You're in things that aren't you know, fly by night
companies you weren't speculating or they're.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
Not fundamentally hit or going to be fundamentally hit by
these terriffs.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
If they drag out, you stay in those at these
this point, and I think the thing that most people do,
except for.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
I want to point out if you hadn't rebalanced and
you're still overweight, you know, like the client that's ninety
plus percent stocks. I mean, this is a hint, right,
this is why you're not overweight and chasing performance if
you don't need to.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Yeah, true, true, true, true, at But I don't know
where that came from.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
We just got off a plane, came back from you
came back from Dallas. But I don't remember the IM
saying that.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
No, they never said true ad. I don't even know
where that came from. But clearly you know, we've been
doing this a long time. And the fact of the
matter is do we like it? Do we like to
see this? Did we did we predict it was coming? Yes? Yes,
and and or I should say yes, no and no.
(08:14):
But the reality is it's here and it's now. Don't
make mistakes and the biggest mistake. And I'm going to
be a broken record on this because it always fascinates
me why somebody, especially if you have a Charles Schwab
account and and or a fidelit. I don't care who
it is, but mainly Schwab because we're affiliated with with Schwab.
(08:36):
And you're going it alone and you're like this gentleman
sixty eight years old, single, and and my my question
is why why would you do that? We've been doing this,
you know, I've been in this industry over thirty years
now you and it almost twenty.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
They're just riding the roller coaster. And that might be
okay when you're younger, but when you're later, you know,
later on in your life, you know, I don't I
don't see why you need to continue to write now.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
It doesn't matter how much money you have, you shouldn't
ride the roller coaster unnecessarily. Let me talk about, you know,
going back again where they asked us, well, you know,
why are you different? What what's your what's your main
philosophical things that you do as as portfolio managers? And
I said, well, first and foremost, which you already said,
(09:24):
is we focus on risk and capital preservation as our
first priority. Again, that doesn't mean you're not going to
have a you know, a good performing UH investment portfolio
or opportunity, but that's what we worry about first, especially
because most of our clients are retired, so we don't
(09:47):
want them to take unnecessary risk to get the types
of returns as you said, that you need to have,
not you know, pieing the sky want to have, you
need to have. And the way we do that to
get you the returns you need to have is our
second focus is on income producing investments. I'm John Scamber
(10:11):
and I'm here with my partner Wisconsin. And the third thing,
so I said, there's a third thing that we really
specialize in when it comes to managing people's money. Just
to recap the first was a focus on capital preservation.
The second is income, and income is so crucial. We
(10:35):
were looking at our numbers on our overall clients' assets,
and here you see what the market. You know, the
nasdak's way into bear territory.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
Which is just this week, both NASDAK and S and
P are down over eighty percent.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Right, and the NASDAC for the year is down. You know,
we're going to double digit, we're going into bear market territory.
And I think it's officially in bear market territory as
of Friday, which just means it's down more than ten percent,
it's a correction. Well, but we haven't hit it yet,
I don't think so, but but the correction is definitely there.
(11:16):
That's also bear market's also considered a crash. Right when
it's twenty percent or more, that is a crash. Now
most people they hear those words and they're they're freaking out.
But here's some of the offset. If you have a
focus on income things that pay you while you're invested
(11:40):
in them, which is a massive focus of ours, then
the loss and maybe value of the position that you're
in gets offset by the dividends or interest that the
investment pays. So we were looking at our overall book
a business which is in the hundreds of millions, and
(12:03):
and what I saw was okay, we looked at a
very small amount of capital depreciation, you know where you know,
we had about two what was it two point.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Well on one section of the book, yeah, I was
which is almost excuse me, one hundred million, right, and
overall was down two million for year to date.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
But then two million three I think to be exactly.
Speaker 3 (12:30):
And we had just over a million in income.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
So when you take that and you go, okay, you know,
that's only a million three on your right on that
portion is almost one hundred million. You're talking about, you know,
one point three one point five percent down when the
market's down and the people who have overweighting in stocks
(12:56):
could be down ten to twenty percent or more.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Right and again, especially if you're just overloaded on all
the tech names and that that comprises what's within your
portfolio and don't pay dividends, then you're really looking at
your account and saying, oh my gosh, because you're just
seeing the red and there's nothing coming back in to
help offset that.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
So what's really important about what we're talking about right
now is are you with the type of talent that
that has been on top of what was to come
and what will come and knows what to do based
on the economic conditions and the uncertain conditions that we're
(13:41):
in and will be in. Are you are you the
right person to handle things yourself? Are you with the
right firm or you just in a passive type of
relationship where you're not getting So we've done what we
said and talked about would do weekend and week out,
(14:03):
and so it boggles the mind that with the type
of information, the type of professionals that are out there
like ourselves that can help people, you know, do what
we do and not be down ten twenty percent right now.
It always boggles the minds my mind that people take
(14:26):
so long to come to the decision.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
Usually that's usually it's these events that stir things up
and people are like, Okay, I need some help with this,
and you know, we don't have a crystal ball. I mean,
John are the worst. Yeah. John earlier was saying, you know,
we predicted and I told you so. But the reality
is we don't have a crystal ball. We didn't know
that there's going to be two, you know, four or
five six percent down days. I mean, we just knew
(14:50):
it was going to be a bumpy ride, and so
we tried to start diversifying some of the allocations of
portfolios into other asset classes. Aren't that aren't going to
have that big roller coaster, right because we knew at
some point it's going to hit. We don't know how
far down the market goes. We don't know if it's
going to be a correction, if it's going to be
a bear market. You know, there's certain levels and things
that we can look at within charts and say, well,
(15:12):
if this support level breaks, then it can go down
another But the reality is is, you know, those are
just forecasts and it's not a it's not a definitive
like this is what's actually going to play out. But
if you know those things are out there, if some
of the signs are out there, like hey, things are overvalued, Hey,
I think you know things are a little bit too lofty.
You know, the tariff thing, we knew. It's not surprised.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
I know the tariff they said it was com an
April second. Trump.
Speaker 3 (15:36):
Yeah, Trump was saying it all during his campaign. And
what we know if Trump is you know what he
can paign campaigns about, he usually kind of follows through.
And so that's what we knew he was going to
push through. And that's what we figured at the beginning
of the year is going to be bumpy. Now, how
long is it going to last? How far down is
the market going to go? And that is a you know,
a question out there, and now you're hearing the word
recession and how far down to the market going to go?
(15:58):
We're gonna go into a bear market, that we're going
to go into recession? How deep is it going to go?
The Fed's going to cut rates now and we ran
actually ran some data using AI because the's a lot
of data out there to give some scenarios because we
have and John I've been talking, you know, because nobody
knows the exact game plan, you know, like we'll get
(16:20):
conversations from our clients and say, what do you think
Trump is doing?
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Like what.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
What's this game plan? And nobody's going to know exactly right,
maybe this is part of his art of the deal
and we don't know the little nuances to the art
of the deal, but you know, we do have some
thoughts of what might be going on. And you know,
previous to Trump, the situation that we were in as far.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
As old predictions and you if you tone it down
and go, oh, we have some things.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
So that's how it sounds. I mean, I know I'm
a little congestive from allergies and what have you. But yeah,
I don't know that sounded like a princess.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
No, I would be accused more of being a princess
than you. But anyway, go on.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But our thought process is, you know what could be
playing out is prior to Trump taking office, the state
of our economy was, yes, it was resilient, we had
low unemployment, but there was a little thing. There was
things under the hood.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
We still have low unemployment, by the way, we still do.
But in fact, there was a great jobs number yesterday
Friday or Thursday or Wednesday that came out that was
more job growth than was expected.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Yeah, which is good news, and we'll take all the
good news we can get right now. But the state
of our economy was it was resilient, low unemployment. The
economy was doing good, the stock market was doing good.
But some of the things under the hood, when you
look into it, was saying, okay, well, we had a
lot of government deficit spending. We had a lot of
job hiring on the federal government side. So it wasn't
(17:58):
pure organic growth, right, So we had to take that
into account. And the Feds cut rates. And we've said
it before, we think the Fed's cut a little bit
too much, too fast to to you know, to battle inflation.
Think it was still the government spending going on. You
didn't want to stimulate the economy because it was already
being stimulated by overspending government. And so they put themselves
(18:20):
in the corner. And then they stopped cutting, and they
put themselves in the corner where again get well, no,
they have been right after their last.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
Cutting and they never got out of the corner.
Speaker 3 (18:31):
Yeah once once they did their last cut in December,
and that's it. They put themselves in a corner because
inflation showed that it was sticky. So how are you
going to accomplish lowering inflation, lowering rates, lowering energy prices.
You slow things down. So maybe the push towards tariffs
is you disrupt right, you slow things down in the
(18:51):
economies and the market. Right. We've seen and we mentioned
it before, the ten year treasury going from four point
eight percent down to below four, right, which things go
down and it's not easy, and who knows, you got
a time it, but things will go down. Now you're
seeing in headlines and the trade traders and the markets
are betting that there's going to be up to I've
seen up to five rate cuts this year, right, and
(19:14):
I don't think that's going to happen. But we played
around with scenarios and we get to it because there's
a lot to cover, yep.
Speaker 2 (19:20):
So so we're gonna have to keep going back and
back and back again. Just it's it's so important that
I hope as many people are heating, you know, our
advice or our counsel or our warning, whatever the case
may be. And there's two opportunities too. Even if you
(19:41):
don't hire us a client, we're fine with it. But
come in and see us, let us, you know, give
you more counsel on what we're doing to really, I mean,
quite frankly, we're out performing this market drastically. Let us
show you how we're doing it, and you could take
that advice and and maybe implement some of the things yourself,
(20:03):
but will also show you which we showed this this
this recent new person who by the way, came to
a workshop right and then came and sat down with
us and then decided to hire us. And you know,
it wasn't an overnight decision. It was very thoughtful and
methodical and it was the right thing for him. But
(20:23):
we did we didn't pressure him. I mean, we don't know.
Speaker 3 (20:26):
I was just given an opportunity to, you know, look
at his personal assets, get to know him more personally,
where you know, how his money's important to him, what
he wants to have done with it. And after we
looked at it and saw that, you know, you're just
taking too much risk doesn't really make sense.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
But generally, you know, a lot of people don't hire
professionals like us because they think our fees are expensive.
And that was one of the minor conversations we have had.
And then he had a huge percentage in one particular
fund and that particular fund was had a point seven
(21:03):
to eight expense ratio, so over three quarters of one
percent annually, and our fee to him is one percent.
So by by reducing you know, funds and other costs
most of the time, and we find this very often
where people, especially people who have funds and ETFs in
(21:27):
their portfolios, that we offset a big chunk of our
cost and sometimes all of it.
Speaker 3 (21:34):
And and the reality is, you know, at the end
of the day, it's all about how do we get
you from point A to point B net of costs?
And that has to make sense no matter what it is,
no matter what's inside your portfolio, but how how it's
allocated in comparison to your roadmap and your plan and
being aligned getting you their net of costs, that's that's
(21:56):
what matters.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
So we're going to talk about the third thing that
we focus on as as portfolio managers. You're listening to
the wise money guys, John scam Ran, I'm here with
my partner joseep You Viscounty, and we we flew back
and instead of going home, you know, because we were
at a two day conference, instead of going home, we
(22:20):
we knew it was too important, too crazy of a week,
too crazy of a week to not get out some
you know thoughts, some advice. Hopefully that that people will take,
you know, based on everything that went on this week
and so far this year, that we still came in,
(22:44):
you know, to do you know, very current, very relevant show,
because at this point we don't want you to panic.
But if you have no clue what to do, you know,
don't procrastinate anymore, don't don't let your account go down
farther without somebody helping you. Give us a call at
(23:07):
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. I
absolutely guarantee it will be a great use of your time.
Or if you just want to come in because you
love spaghetti so much, or chicken palm or chicken palm
or lasagna, right, I think so those are the three. Well, Fija,
(23:29):
you know, we don't want you to be out there
and not get some sort of help, So either come
sit down with us face to face, which I've already
guaranteed will be a great use of your time. It
will also be and I do guarantee a great use
of your time, to come to the old Spaghetti Factory
(23:49):
on April thirtieth in Roseville from six to seven thirty pm.
That's a Wednesday called nine one six nine six, seven
thirty five. So let's talk about the third thing, because
I bet you a lot of people aren't thinking this
at all. That growth is still an opportunity.
Speaker 3 (24:10):
Right.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
We're we're now looking, We're now scouring. We're going, Okay,
is it in the mag seven? Is Nvidia cheap? Here?
Is Google cheap? Here? Is Amazon? Chief Palenteer, Microsoft Tesla.
We're reviewing those things. We're looking at the data that
we can get our hands on, and we get a
(24:32):
tremendous amount of research and analytical data and have tools
to help us navigate all the information that's out there
to decide. And we we actually got out of a
few positions that have now gone to cash and then
you know, we'll consider and looking for placements. Some of
(24:54):
that might go to structured notes that we've talked about
last week, the week before last, the week before that,
so on and so forth. Some probably will not go
to bonds at this point because I bet your rates,
you know, here you go. We said don't miss I
mean a year ago, I said, don't let six percent
(25:15):
rates pass you by. Then we were saying, don't let
five and a half you know, five to five and
a half rates pass you by. Well, guess what they
passed you by. So now it's about alternatives where your
focus is still on total return, which is still important
for growth as well as is their value starting to
(25:38):
pop up? Will there be value unlocked value in investments?
And I think there will be.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
Yeah. And what happens is when the market, you know,
panics because of an event. What happens is there are
some names that go down rightfully so because they are
going to be directly impacted by whatever event is taking place.
So in this case, I've so we're talking about tariffs.
But then there's gonna be some other names that aren't
really impacted at all by what is being what's been
(26:08):
going on, but they're just being drugged down because everything
else is going down. And that can that can create
an opportunity for getting into those names or adding into
those names if you already own them, because they're just
going down with everything else. It was kind of like,
you know, two thousand and eight when we had the
credit crisis, definitely scary, everything was going down, but you
(26:29):
had some you know, banks out there because banks just
got slaughtered. But you had some banks out there where
they were fundamentally sound like Wells Fargo, JP Morgan. They
didn't actually need tarp money to stay afloat, but they
got it anyways. But their stocks just got hammered.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Right, Oh, I remember Wells Fargo was down like ten bucks,
ten eleven, twelve.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Bucks, and Bank of America got down to three.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Within like twenty four months, it was back to thirty,
you know, thirty bucks, and then a year or two
past that it was to fifty bucks. I mean, talk
about opportunity.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Hard to time the bottom, So you know, is right
now a good time is next week? Is it? You know?
Next month? Who knows? But you know this is where
you can start if you have some cash, right and
you're on the opposite side of the spectrum we've been
talking about people who are a little bit too heavy
into stocks, been chasing performance, have those technology names because
(27:23):
twenty three and twenty four were so great. You know,
there's the opposite of this, the spectrum where people have
just been sitting in cash because they've been like, I
don't know, I don't trust seeing so on and so forth.
This could be a good time where you take some
of the cash, you start finding value in getting into
these names.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
And here's what's just absolutely crucial. This is another mistake
that I see over and over and over again. You
try to time things perfectly, and you go, oh, I
am so good that I can get out at the
top and come back in at the bottom. There's no
such person entity process system that nor does it need
(28:03):
to time the perfect top and time the perfect bottom.
But if you were properly diversified and you you didn't
have unnecessary risk. And as Joseppie said, now you're sitting
on cash, you start easing in, but you've got to know,
you know what you're easing into. And so here I'm
(28:25):
going to say it again. You know you're too late.
You know, if you listen to this and you hadn't
called us yet or come to one of our workshops
or seminars yet, you were too late for that. But
you're not too late to get help still and know
how to take advantage of what's going on, because this
is an opportunity. We haven't had this sort of reversal
(28:50):
in the markets since twenty twenty, and you know, twenty
two wasn't even as bad as a base on a
daily basis, and what we've seen in just three months
it harkens back to twenty twenty, and you know, there
was a lot of good deals to be made and
(29:11):
we are finding and creating and putting together portfolios, you know,
with great investments in them that that can weather this storm.
And this storm, like most, won't be long lived in
my opinion. Well, I don't think it's going to be
a multi year bear market like in two thousand and
(29:33):
eight that you mentioned, or like in two thousand to
two thousand and three. Could it be similar to a
twenty twenty two or a twenty twenty. Remember twenty twenty
ended up being a good year.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
Well that's because of all the stimulus. I don't think
you're going to have that again. But it's also not
twenty twenty where the whole world shuts down.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
Have to be something negative about something positive.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
No, I'm saying twenty twenty even though we've had volatile
days similar to twenty twenty, Twenty twenty was a totally
different year. It was it was a complete outlier. Nobody
knew what the hell was going on the whole world
and government shut down. Nobody's gonna forecast anything. You can't
tell what was going on. So luckily we had all
that stimulus, which saved us. Had that not been down,
(30:13):
I mean, that would have been a totally different picture.
But I think this is a little bit more predictable
in that this tariff trigg war can only live so long.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Let's dive into the scenarios that you came up with today.
So I already said what one that I since and
I'm already seen and believe will happen.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
Countries coming to the negotiation country negotiat.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
Countries are gonna look at this, especially smaller countries that
feel they've also been taken advantage by China, you know, big,
big countries like that. Certainly China is the second biggest economy,
but it doesn't matter. They've you know, taken their their
ways and have tried to, you know, infiltrate and decimate
(31:00):
eight you know, the small countries around them. And I
just love.
Speaker 3 (31:03):
They were a small country at a point.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
Oh yeah, until until you know Carter, than the Clintons,
then the Obamas, then the Bidens, and they turned around
and just made China that they are today. And now
I personally love the fact that Vietnam's the first of
the table to say, you know what US, we want
to work with. You will go to zero, and Trump's
(31:27):
response will be We'll go to zero and you watch.
So that's the first prediction. I think that.
Speaker 3 (31:32):
These there's going to be more of that.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
There'll be more of that, and the tariff war will
be short lived because then China, the European Union, Canada.
Talk about adversaries, I don't mean enemies, I mean financial adversaries.
So far, they're not wanting to play in the sandbox.
They want to continue to damage the US financially.
Speaker 3 (31:56):
But then to be a pain point.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
But the European Union, just how how smart does the
UK look for leaving the European Union right now because
they're not even close to US impacted. So that just
tells you that these regimes, because the European Union is
nothing more than a regime. And you know what, I'm
(32:21):
glad we're taking it to the EU, we're taking it
to Canada, We're taking it to Mexico. We're taking it too.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
Child leveling the playing field right.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
And but here's the thing again, despite saying that I
think it's going to be short lived, I really do.
I don't see it going on, you know, to the
end of the year and even into next year. I'm
talking three four months at the most before somebody goes
Uncle taps out. Right, they're in a they're in a
really terrible you know, choke hold, and and they go,
(32:55):
you know, we're tapping out.
Speaker 3 (32:56):
Well, it's not good for anybody, us included. So high
tariffs across the board, and everybody's saying we're gonna tear
for you higher and this and that, so and so forth.
It doesn't end well for anybody. So whether somebody's in
the sandbox or not, or wants to play the game,
the end result is people are.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
Gonna have to nations, less money for everybody.
Speaker 3 (33:15):
Countries are gonna have to come to the table and
negotiate and lower the bars. That's just the end of it.
Speaker 2 (33:19):
So we gotta go to a break. Want you to
stay tuned. We're gonna get into the other potential scenarios,
and then we'll end with just that we have another
great investment that if if you get a hold of
us and come on in again, you won't be disappointed.
You're listening to the wise Mandy. Guys, I'm your co
host John Scambray and I'm here with Joseebba Visconsin. And
(33:43):
what an exciting show. I mean, see, I get fired
up about this, you know what I mean. We don't
get these opportunities all the time, and to me, this
is an opportunity. It's an opportunity to make money and
to potentially we now have the the the well, the
opportunity to get into investments that you couldn't have got
(34:07):
into just a couple of months ago, sir, exactly. And
you would never go oh, and we would never go, oh,
let's buy something at the very top.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Well, that's what happens, right, Like, we were getting interest
from clients like, hey, what about cryptocurrency? Do you guys
have this is cryptocurrency?
Speaker 2 (34:24):
Was this one hundred and five thousand, yeah or whatever?
Speaker 3 (34:27):
And we're like, well, yeah, you want to you don't
want to start getting in there?
Speaker 2 (34:30):
What about n video when Nvidio was one hundred and
forty five. I got to get in video and we
had people you can't talk them out of it, and
we go, okay, I wouldn't, you know, just I would
do a little bit. And they're probably or people that
won't get out of a particular stock, and we and
we beg them to and and some do and some don't.
But the reality is is these things always shape up
(34:53):
to be one of those things where you look back
and you go, I should have got in, should have
bought this, I should have listened to John Scambray and
just Seppi Wisconti, and I didn't. Well, don't let that
be the case again. I don't. I don't. I mean,
I don't know how much more we could do as
far as you know, giving you the tools, he might
(35:15):
lose your voice, You'll lose I'm losing.
Speaker 3 (35:18):
I'm already losing something because I sound different now.
Speaker 2 (35:22):
No, I feel for you that congestion you're going through.
That's but okay, So let's I mean, there is like
everything there could be, things get worse, right, things kind
of moderate, right. I think that's what I think. What
what will happen? Second to obviously that the correction that
(35:44):
we already had is things will kind of moderate first,
but dive into your you know, you created these scenarios
that have a lot more thought into them than just that.
Speaker 3 (35:55):
Is that because I have glasses on right now.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Yeah, you look smart at least, So.
Speaker 3 (36:01):
Yeah, what I want to nobody knows what the future holds.
But what John Ives speculated is and what I was
going to in our previous segment was the FEDS put
themselves back in a corner. They can't lower rates anymore,
and especially if inflation stay sticky. Well, what in the
past has wiped out inflation? Was it the Feds? No,
(36:23):
it's typically recession. Things have to slow down in the
market and the economy that brings inflation down. That's what
has happened in the past.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
It's destruction.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
So therefore, I think we think a potential scenario is
that the push on tariffs right, not only leveling the
playing field, but disrupting slowing things down. Right, We've already
explained that interest rates have come down by the market
moving them down. Energy has come down or per barrel, right,
(36:54):
that has come down. So I came up with scenarios
using AI, using in most recent economic data out there,
and said what if in the next two quarters, right,
because I don't think it's gonna last that long, Like
like you said, I don't think it is so in
the next two quarters, if the tariff push and retaliatory
(37:16):
scenario continues on, how's that going to affect GDP, right,
which is the overall measurement of how great our economy
is growing or contracting. The other scenario is, what if
after a couple quarters it subsides to the point where
there's negotiation, but just a ten percent blanket tariffs stay intact, right,
(37:39):
that we're imposing on other nations, but then the other
extra tariffs that we're putting on other nations.
Speaker 2 (37:44):
Goes away, right?
Speaker 3 (37:46):
How would that impact the economy overall? The other is
what if things are slowing down so much? Right? Trump
has been calling for the Feds to lower interest rates,
So what if this is kind of part of the
push to push Feds into a corner and then they're now,
you know before they said they're not in a hurry
to lower rates, Well, now maybe it's changing that position
(38:09):
and they start cutting rates. What if there's cutting rates
and retaliatory tariffs go away, and we just have the
ten percent blanket how would that impact the economy or
the GDP. And obviously, the first scenario, if tariffs continue
to drag out this trade war, then it ends up
in recession. Right, how low does it go? Who knows,
(38:31):
but it'll definitely trigger a recession. The other in the
next couple quarters. The other is what if the retaliatory
and the elevated tariffs go away and just a blanket
ten percent tariffs. That puts US in a situation where
we have positive GDP and we avoid recession. Now, if
it gets to a point where things slow down so much,
(38:52):
the FED comes in and they start cutting rates and
they just I just put a prediction out there of
like fifty basis points so to one quarter point rate
cuts out there, what would happen? Then we would have
actually on either scenario where there's a ten percent blanket
tariff or there's you know, some of the retaliatory tariffs
(39:12):
either or we actually have growth of two percent or better.
And especially if tariffs start to come off and we
still have the blanket ten percent and we have a
little bit of stimulus where Fed start cutting rates, it
actually puts US into like the almost three percent range
for GDP growth, which would be great. And I think,
like I said before, I think nations are going to
(39:34):
come to a pain point. You know, I saw an
article just pop up. You know, Australia and Japan stock
market is at eight month lows. Nobody's going to want
to continue.
Speaker 2 (39:43):
That now, because you know, there's the it is a
lagging wealth effect, but it is a wealth effect that
is meaningful because a lot of people use that excess
you know, value to purchase things quite frankly, when making
money in stocks or or their homes have gone you know,
(40:04):
up considerably, and they can unlock equity, you know, so
on and so forth. We're spenders. I mean, the world
you know, loves to spend and loves to consume and
loves to enjoy and.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
Borrow and rage they borrow, and rates coming down will
help spurs some of that borrowing up.
Speaker 2 (40:21):
And that's where we start getting into our conspiracy theory,
where you know, is this to really get to a
position where rates are much lower. We've already seen the
ten year that we mentioned drop below four. It's been
above four stubborn leaf for a while now, and now
we're down to three nine. Might even go onto the
three eight five, three eight seven somewhere that why is
(40:43):
that significant? Well, you know, you see that mortgages follow
the ten year treasury. You'll see that, you know, many
other types of loans follow, you know, the decrease in
the tree. And then if you get the manipulated you know,
loan cuts or or or rate cuts through FED funds,
then you'll see banks really start to you know, change
(41:07):
their u rates because they're getting their cost of capitals
going down, so they can pass that on to the
consumer in the form of a lower cost for for
for debt.
Speaker 3 (41:19):
Or it might have been one of those people in
the last year where you got bought a house or
a condo and you got a seven percent interest rate
and now you're gonna you can go out and refinance
for six percent?
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Yeah, or or what about hey, dare I say it
below five? If if if rates dip to five or
it or below, you will see a refine boom. You
will see equity coming out of people's house and the
economy will go you know nuts. And so again that's
(41:49):
where that's what I think is going to happen. And
let's let's let's talk about what's important. What's important is
being positioned so that no matter what the scenario is,
you are going to outperform whatever outperformance means. It might
be your cash flow, it might be reducing your risk.
(42:10):
It might be now I haven't had growth, I've had
cash and and and no money in the market and
on the sideline. So it might be now's the time
to start easing in, you know, to opportunities that are
way more you know better from a from a purchase
price perspective, whatever the case may be. Is to say
(42:32):
it again, don't let this window go by, because every
single window like this over the over the thirty years
I've been in business, there's one regret that everybody always has,
and it starts with I wish I would have and
you can you can complete the rest. So you know,
(42:54):
if you're just not ready yet to come in and
see us, that's fine. Let us feed you at the
old Spaghetti Factory from six to seven thirty pm in Roseville.
And you know that is a very comfortable, non you
know pressure way to see what we do and get
more information again, or come in if you can't make
(43:17):
the The April almost said August the April thirtieth, you know, seminar,
come in call nine one six ninety six seven thirty
five hundred. Hope you enjoyed listening to the wise many guys,
John Scambrida, deceptive was gone. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 3 (43:34):
Talk to you next weekend.
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On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!