October 2, 2025 • 44 mins
Big economic news is driving the markets forward. Hosts John and Giuseppe guide us through the waves with the latest on Fixed Rates and Bond Funds for investing. Plus, we look at the Amazon Corporation fine with examples to support the possibility. Join us for our October 15th Workshop. The Wise Money Guys.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to The Wise Money Guys, a radio show.
I'm your co host John Scambray, and I'm here with my.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Partner Josepa Wisconsin.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
And I should mention that we are certified portfolio managers.
That makes us investment experts. If you're listening to this
show for the first time, Giuseppe and I have been
in this industry for a combined almost fifty years, and
I would say in the region we're one of the
top advisory planning firms, and we're not the ones saying it.
(00:42):
Our clients are extremely satisfied, so much so that often
we get new clients primarily by referral, and we're not
asking for referrals. They just are so satisfied with what
we do that they turn around and refer us to
their friends, family, leagues, so on and so forth. But
that's not what the point of the show is going
(01:03):
to be today. There's a lot going on. We're going
to talk about the government shut down and the reality
is does that affect the markets in a positive way
or a negative way. We're going to talk about some
data versus just maybe what you hear, and what sensational
lot dative data versus the narrative. And one of our
(01:26):
favorite people and favorite firms has coined that because we
are about the data, not the noise, and so we'll
talk more about the government shut down and how that
may or may not affect your investments. Also, I've got
to mention Joseppi that hey, we're only what a couple
of weeks away, almost exactly two weeks away.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
From our workshop.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Yeah, our retiree workshop. So if you're retired or you're
contemplating retire retiring, you'll want to come to our conquered
workshop at the old Spaghetti Factory. It's from six to
seven thirty pm, and which is a Wednesday, and you
need to give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred before it's too late
(02:16):
and all seats are taken. There's still some left, but
we have a lot of interest in people already signed up,
So to come to that October fifteenth workshop if you're
retired or about to retire, and you're concerned about your
investments or want a second opinion on them, or just
generally not blown away by your results or your service
(02:40):
or the solutions that you have. Give us a call
at nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
If you can't make that because it's not in your
area and just want to get on our calendar again,
give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. So let's dig in a little
(03:01):
bit here on this government shut down. First and foremost, Well,
I'm just gonna say.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
I'd say before we jump into that, I want to
wrap up September. September oh surprisingly, Oh yeah, typically a
negative month when you look at history, I.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Mean going back to like the forties, right or.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
Yeah, I mean forty four percent of time September has
been positive. But on average, if you average it out,
the market is down almost.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
One percent in September.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
Correct, Yeah, But we we turned out a positive month
in September, So it went against the grain.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
There, yeah, and and and and that may be indicative
of the revision to GDP. I mean, we saw positive
revisions to GDP.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
So this whole you.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Know, the the yield curve which we don't need to
go into the dynamics of that too much. But when
you take unemployment, the yield curve GDP being revised up,
you know, I mean you're.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
I think it's I think you're thinking a little too
deep there.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
Okay, well it's just AI absolutely.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Well, yeah, we'll talk of stoff.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Feds cutting rates, and those two components right there is
like let's jump on the road.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Okay, sure, And quite frankly, interest rates have come down
a shmidge they were a ten year treasury was starting
to creep back and now it's back down closer to
just four percent flat again. So I mean again, when
you add it all up, I think the reason where
I was going with that, the reason why we didn't
see a pullback or a correction in September like the
(04:38):
majority of years past, certainly over the last several decades,
is because of those things. And now you know, the
the the information out there that is, oh my god, okay,
a government shut down, the sky is falling your you know,
millions of people are gonna be unemployed, the economy is
(04:59):
going to go under a recession. This is terrible. But
let's really break it down. You is terrible.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
It could be because I'm supposed to go to San
Francisco for Fleet Week and I saw some article that
it may not go on with this government shutdown.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
I'm not sure.
Speaker 4 (05:15):
How that's gonna happen, but I hope I'm hoping not. Yeah,
I like to see the Blue Angels.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
I highly doubt that Fleet Week will be canceled because
I think the funding for Fleet Week primarily comes and
the funding for the Blue Angels comes from the Navy
and the Department of Defense, and one of the essential
services is the Department of Defense, And so that's let's
let's let's let's really get into the.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Break it down.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
The reality is, I don't believe, and certainly data that
you'll you'll dig into a little bit doesn't suggest that
the sky is falling when the government shuts down, because really,
what is shutting down the people who have been destroying
government and spending and destroying our economic balance sheet, if
(06:08):
you will, Those are the primary resources that get shut down,
I mean, first Congress.
Speaker 4 (06:15):
So therefore we'll have less spending during the shutdown period
exactly right, which is which would be a good thing,
because we got a little bit too much of it
and that's why we had inflation.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
And the main thing that gets shut down is the
House of Representatives. Both the Congress and Senate get shut down.
And so these five hundred and thirty five individuals which
have been bankrupting both sides. I mean, I'm conservative, you're conservative,
But when it comes to facts, the facts are that
(06:46):
politicians have been bankrupting the United States and spending money
frivolously on things that don't benefit Americans for decades. So
getting these politicians out of the way, I hope the
shut down lasts for weeks, for months. I think the
longest in history is what twenty days or forty days
(07:06):
or something like that, isn't there, Well it's not very long,
sadly in my opinion. But the reality is here we are.
We're shut down. You know, it's been you know, three,
four or five days. I don't know the exact days.
But what what what's going on that you know especially
need to be going on?
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Central services are still.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
In Social Security gets paid, still, Medicare still functions and pays,
the military still functions and pay, and all of your
law enforcement activities still function and and get paid. So
really it's the deep state, the bureaucracy and the majority
(07:50):
of these politicians that are worthless that get shut down.
So which is actually healthy, especially when you consider one
thing that a lot of people don't know. This now
will allow Trump to actually let go more of the
federal bureaucracy that is part of the deep state that
(08:14):
spends hundreds of billions of dollars every year with no
accountability whatsoever. That goes to you know, super packs and
you know, less than less than legitimate, you know, not
for profits, countries that don't deserve a nickel, illegal criminal
(08:36):
aliens that absolutely don't deserve a nickel, so on and
so forth.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
And one of the big.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Things spending that doesn't improve our lives, yeah, the lives
of the American people or what we're facing today in
our own very own nation.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
So from an investment perspective, it still boils down to
that fundamentals and technicals of good quality American companies are
how you make money and will continue to make money
and thrive in this marketplace. Because we'll talk about investment
(09:14):
strategy and some investment areas that we like and we
regularly utilize in the show. But at the end of
the day, your your my opinion is government shut down good?
Speaker 3 (09:28):
What about yours?
Speaker 4 (09:30):
You know, I haven't spent a lot of time really
digging into like the true impacts of the central staying
intact versus you know, like you said, just the Congress
and House and them being you know, shut down and
not paid. So I don't know, but I do know.
(09:51):
I think the one benefit, like you said, I do
agree that, you know, it cuts spending, because that's the
very thing that we you know, no matter what side,
we just get away from it, and we just get
way way too ahead and just spend and spend and spend,
and things work out, things don't work out, doesn't matter.
You continue to spend in tax and so on and
so forth. But what I have looked at, you know,
(10:15):
and what I do have here in my notes, is
how does it impact the market? Right? Because that's what
most people were worried about before the shutdown was, oh
my gosh, how's it going to impact the stock market?
Speaker 3 (10:26):
How's it going to impact the economy? Right?
Speaker 2 (10:29):
You're listening to the wise money guys, John scam range A,
set Piveiscani, and we're diving into government shutdowns.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Are they good or bad? So far?
Speaker 2 (10:40):
We both agree that anything that slows down or stops
government spending is good. And fiscally, we haven't really seen
any major impact. Two, although during a government shutdown, with
reconciliation of the other things, we may be able to
(11:03):
battle some of this Biden spending that's still in the budget.
So that, to me is another good thing. This this
this budget is still basically about a two trillion dollar
proposed additional deficit deficit. So the simple fact that that
(11:25):
didn't get passed and that's why we're shutting down is good.
And and also you know, the one thing we don't
see and I've never seen, is where where's the backlash?
Right the big fear from either party is that, oh
my god, if we're the ones deemed responsible for the
(11:47):
government shut down, we're gonna lose votes. Well, no, not
a single vote is going to change. The vote is
so perfectly divided. You're either left or you're right because
right now there's nothing in the middle that any sort
of legislation, any sort of people in office. Maybe one
(12:09):
maybe one's in the middle that might be Federman, but
that's about it. So I mean, we definitely and when
I say we conservatives, proud Americans, patriots, need to take
this opportunity to clean out some of the things that
were done during the Biden term and even going back
(12:32):
to the Obama term. Did you know that the Inflation
Reduction Act where the majority of the money went.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
To inflation pump up Act?
Speaker 2 (12:43):
It was the Inflation Increase Act. But no, it went
to health care. Not healthcare. That's a whole nother topic.
How they say, oh, we're taking away Americans health care. No,
it went to health insurance premiums and subsidies to illegal
aliens hundred percent. Fact, that's according to the Well.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
I like, I like how they come up with these
titles for these these you know, this Act and that
Inflation Reduction What it's like, we're spending more money.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
How does that?
Speaker 4 (13:12):
How does that reduce inflation? The Inflation Reduction Act, But
we're spending more money. It's an oxymoron. It's it's it's
like the best marketing. Yeah, you know, politicians are probably
the best advertisers and marketers out there. They should just
I think the retired politicians should just opening a marketing
company because it would kill it.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
It makes me wonder are people in the media, especially
the big the Big three, you know, like ABC, CBS,
NBC and all that they own. I mean, are these
people really that ignorant to the to the facts.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
What's going on?
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Just the talking heads on one are the ones running it?
Speaker 2 (13:49):
No, I'm both really talking the wing of the Democratic Party.
But do they honestly think that the Inflation Reduction Act,
as an example, was going to you know, cut inflation
somehow or help the economy?
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Uh in any way?
Speaker 4 (14:08):
You know it was really I'm sure because you can
pick parts of it, focus on those parts that that
support your thesis or your argument.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Right, It's like anything.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
I mean, there's so much information out there, like I
can we can have a discussion and say, do you
believe in aliens? And you may say no, you're crazy? Right,
you're looking at me like you're like, maybe I do.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
I mean, but I can bason time is infinite.
Speaker 4 (14:31):
But I but you could tell me, you know, point blank, no,
you're crazy. I can go on the internet. I can
go my phone and I can start pulling up stuff
to help.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
So you don't think there's uh little green men. But
more importantly, have you ever gone down.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
The rabbit hole? I didn't say.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
I don't think that secretly the moon has been colonized,
and on top of that, there is aliens living amongst us.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I mean, oh, it's the there there's a there's wormhole.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
There is a wormhole that you can go down.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
My point is, My point is is to your question
of these talking heads on these you know, media outlets
and them spewing this informator, sharing this information with all
their viewers, do they actually believe in what they say?
One they're told what to say. Two they have a biases,
and three they're going to have whatever, you know, pick
(15:27):
picked out piece Like we can take any video of
let's say Trump or Biden and then clip out like
the worst or the best part.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
It will change the narrative, It'll change the whole perspective
of of that clip. Which is why was it NBC
or ABC or CBS got sued by the Trump campaign.
And one because they manipulated. They didn't manipulating and editing.
They they manipulated Kamala Harris's or whatever it was in
(16:01):
a positive way, and then they interview what Trump said
to make it appear you know, negative, and he of
course sued. And that never makes the headlines because they're
never going to admit that to the corruption and fraud
that these mainstream media outlets but utilize.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
But here's the bottom bottom line is media. How does
media make money? They have to they have to sell,
have to view ship. So it's got to be catchy.
It's got, it's got exactly, And that's the problem. And
that's a lot of the stuff that's on the Internet
these days and the information that you try and seek
out there absolutely because you're trying to go after clicks, right,
and how do we get more clicks? How do we
get more viewers? We gotta make we got it. We
(16:43):
have to have some wow factor too, We have to
have some and if it's not, it's just boring.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Yeah, So why do we talk about this? The reality
is is you have to have a good team on
your side to weed through the the overgrowth of noise
and the sensationalism and dig in and try to find
and utilize the data and the facts to make and
(17:12):
really manage one's investment portfolios and help them accomplish their
financial plan.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
You make better educated decisions moving forward, especially when it's
meaningful decisions, whether it's hey, should I buy a house,
should I sell my house? Should I invest in this?
Should I take this pile of cash and do extra
y with it or just sit on it, whatever the
case may be. And to your point, going back to data,
which we haven't talked about yet, is this whole government
(17:38):
shutdown thing, and what has been on the news, what
has been on the major media outlets about it? Right,
it's all of the very worst case scenario, you know,
outcomes that could possibly maybe.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
The minority House leader what's his name, Booker or whatever
it is, I don't know. He's literally going and again
that here's a nothing. So it hits my blood pressure going,
So I should be turning this off, but he's going.
The Republicans have shut down the government to take away
your health care. Okay, that's the narrative that they're the
(18:18):
government shut down is the Republican's fault because they were.
Their budget takes away your health care. No, what it
takes away is the additional health insurance health insurance, not
rights to healthcare, not access to hospitals and doctors, but
takes away the health insurance subsidies to illegal aliens, to
(18:43):
criminal illegal aliens, and people that don't have work visas,
don't have you know, legal residence status. It takes away
the subsidies that were at Obamacare was one thing that
added billions and billions of dollars an annual expense, tens
of billions of dollars an annual expense, and made healthcare
(19:06):
health not healthcare, health insurance less affordable.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Right. What people don't know.
Speaker 4 (19:12):
Is which health insurance has been in the inflation ridiculous exactly.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
That's one thing that that's one.
Speaker 4 (19:18):
Thing that we actually have to focus on financial planning
when people come to us and say, hey, I want
to retire a little creat care, Yeah, sixty two or
sixty I want to retire. That's one thing that we
have a discussion about. I mean, twenty years ago, it
wasn't that much of a discussion because it wasn't but
now because.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Health insurance was affordable until Obamacare descroying.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Yeah, and even small businesses right now, I mean they're
not hit. They're already hit over the head with a
higher interest rate environment right as far as barring barring
loans or business loans or what have you, but even
starting your own business. I have a I have a
family friend just got into business this year. You know
what the biggest concern and conversation premium three thousand premiums.
(19:58):
It's a family of four. She's got too young, too
little one actually a most recent baby, and then a
daughter who's in I believe fifth grade.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Now wow, so that's a big gap. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
And his wife is at home because because they decided
to homeschool. So he's the breadwinner, went into business for himself,
and the biggest gripe right and what he's battling with
right now is three thousand dollars a.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Month is his insurance.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
Look at our business, a registered investment advisory FME firm,
and you know, insurance is a major factor our professional liability,
our errors and admissions, our our our our real estate
UH insurance then then health insurance, insurance, auto, you know,
auto insurance, so on when you add up all the
(20:47):
insurance because it's it's a huge percentage.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
But you have to have but you have to have it. Yeah,
So like you said, no, we can't, we can We'll
just do without it because we want to cut costs.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
So the reality is is that the things that you
do in response to what is going on current event wise,
like a shutdown, like you know, some of the financial
data that the fiscal or monetary decisions happening. Is crucial
(21:19):
to be with a firm and a team that doesn't
panic first and foremost helps you stick to what your
goals and objectives are. Because we're going to talk about,
you know, and and did talk about last show on
how people you know, get all discombobulated, but just strategy wise,
(21:41):
first of all, main thing is do not fall. And
I hope you you got this from our conversation so far.
Do not fall for the narrative by mainstream media that
the government shut down, you should panic and that the
sky is falling and you know, you should hide in
(22:02):
your bunker. That is absolutely not the case. And Jesse,
I see your notes here.
Speaker 4 (22:10):
Yeah, since nineteen seventy six twenty funding gaps, ten of
them resulted in actual shutdowns. There were federal employee furloughs.
But then when you look at, okay, well how did
that impact the stock market? To s and P five
hundred when these shutdowns occurred, and really it's a nothing burger,
meaning that there might have been slight you know, some
(22:31):
were like slide down, some were actually slide up, but
when you look at the average across it's pretty much flat.
I mean at the the you know, the investment community
in the market. They basically just looked past the political.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
Drama exactly right.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
And so we said months ago that we thought the market,
the stock market, whether it's the S and P five hundred,
the Nasdaq, the Dow, for the most part, the overall
stock market should finish pretty strong. We thought that that
were there would be a melt up, and we still
(23:06):
believe that. So again, this isn't time to necessarily dump stocks.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
It absolutely isn't the time to do that. But we
are richly valued.
Speaker 4 (23:17):
And also you want to and you want to be
choosy on the stocks that you that you do choo.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
You don't want to just blanket. So that's where I
was going. I mean, it is a good time.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
I mean again, you look at some of the prices
of you know, for example, Meta Tesla now back into
the four hundreds, Meta in the seven hundreds, Apple close
close to her in the two fifties, Microsoft in the
five hundreds, and on and on and on, and if
you've been holding those for a while, like many of
(23:49):
our clients, I mean, if it's an out of whack position,
meaning where you have one of those or some of
those and they're now you know too concentrated twenty thirty percent,
you know of your portfolio, of your portfolio in one position,
you definitely want to and have those trim backed a little.
(24:10):
Never regret locking in a massive profit. Only regret that
you should have locked in a massive profit and you didn't.
Speaker 4 (24:19):
Well, I think the I think the good thing in
what we ask our clients sometimes, especially when you have
a position or maybe a couple positions that have dominated
in your portfolio and now they've become a big chunk
of your overall portfolio, like you said, twenty thirty maybe
forty percent of your overall portfolio. While they're doing great,
it's great because it drags your whole portfolio value and
your performance up. But what you have to ask yourself is, Okay,
(24:42):
let's say you had a million dollar portfolio and let's
say three hundred thousand of it was in Vidio for example.
That's done fantastic. So, but let's say you had a
million dollars cash and you started a brand new portfolio.
Would you take three hundred thousand dollars and invest it
in one stock? And if the answer is no, oh,
then it's then it's time to trim some. It's not
(25:02):
that you just sell it, but you can trim some.
There's other strategies too. You could put what's called stop
losses in there, or if you said, hey, I'm up
like four hundred, well put put a lot, put a
line in the sand and say, well, if it gets
down to X price right, I want out. And there's
ways that you can do that. You know, depending on
(25:22):
the brokerage service that you use. If you have more
questions about it or not sure what the heck I'm
talking about, definitely can give us a call as well.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
Yep, called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Absolutely get on our calendar for a no obligation consultation.
In these types of situations where we've had huge run ups,
it's always wise to update. You know your portfolio. And
and again if you're doing things yourself, haven't made any
(25:50):
changes or you haven't seen any changes to your model,
as just Seppi said, if you've got a position that's
now a huge part of your portfolio, come in get
a second opinion or come to our workshop on October
fifteenth and Conquered at the Old Spaghetti Factory from six
to seven thirty pm called nine one six ninety six
(26:10):
seven thirty five hundred strategically, don't abandon your financial plan. Also,
if you don't have a financial plan, get one. We
do an absolutely free financial planning consultation for clients or
or people who want to potentially consider us prospective clients,
(26:35):
and we don't charge for that. We'll spend the time,
you know, helping you establish a baseline, comprehensive financial plan
that then if you do decide to hire us, we'll
use that as your roadmap that we update regularly, especially
if changes to your portfolio need to be made or
(26:58):
your personal situation has changed, so with that we need
to update your plan or your portfolio or something at
a macro level, like maybe something you know really bad
does happen on the geopolitical or economic front, or.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
Maybe personally maybe you know you I mean, we had
a client that she her husband has some medical issues,
and she's been caring for her husband and so finally
now she's going to be putting him into a care facility,
you know, and that is costly, you know, and I'm
actually surprised on how crazy the costs are because.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
It's twelve for us, it's not don't tell me more
it's sixteen thousand a month.
Speaker 4 (27:40):
And then I just had a meeting with one of
our other clients. Unfortunately the mom passed away, but in conversation,
for about three months she was in a care facility,
and I guess after the three months was kind of
like the the window period of time that her benefits
was covering her there figuring out, okay, if this has
(28:01):
to like stretch on a little bit longer and further,
like what is the cost eighteen thousand dollars for that
particular here in Sacramento eighteen And here's the sad part
about it is that it's so expensive. And the one
that's sixteen thousand dollars a month, I personally know because
my grandfather was in this care facility when he had COVID.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
He was in his nineties, so.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
He was in there my mom. It was so bad. Literally,
my mom took him out and said, I'm going to
care because he was living with my parents at the time.
I'm going to care for him at home. That's how
bad it was there. But one of my best friends.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
He wasn't in a care home in New York because
remember Cuomo was responsible for what they say, purposely you know,
not helping people in elderly type establishments responsible for these
ninety year olds and eighty year olds and many of
them you know, dying.
Speaker 4 (28:54):
Well and you're not getting You're not getting the level
of care. You're not getting actually level cares you should
be getting on a normal, just essential basis, but let
alone sixteen thousand dollars a month level. So when you
factor those things in, those are the curveballs that we
really look at when we're putting a plan together because
you can't plan them. Nobody has a crystal ball, and
(29:14):
hopefully that scenario or event doesn't happen within your lifetime,
but if it does, you don't want to be you know,
hit with a curveball though, So you're like, oh my gosh,
I gotta sell my house, I gotta do this, I
gotta I can't do that, and you're panicking that.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
It all boils down to how important our strategy, our
overall philosophy is to helping people in retirement or about
to retire, manage their money, help them create you know,
a workable, living, breathing, highly probable probable financial plan because
(29:53):
we focus on cash flow.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
Right.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
The thing is here, I mean is anybody really planning
for sixteen thousand dollars a month for a care I mean,
think about it. If you you know most of the
people that have been retired for a while, you know,
five years, ten years or more, when they got to
a million dollars. Maybe you have so security, you have
(30:17):
your pension, you have a million dollars, you have no debt,
and you thought, hey, million dollars, I'm good. But sixteen
thousand dollars a month, I mean you're talking almost two
hundred thousand dollars a year. In a year, even if
you have a million dollars, I mean in five years,
half of it's gone.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
Well, so if it stays at the same rate, but
they're gonna raise it every year.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
Oh it's gonna get worse.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
So these these times don't allow you to think, oh,
I have a million dollars and that I can be
satisfied with a three percent bank rate, CD rate, savings rate,
even a four percent treasury rate. To take that, I'm
to keep up with potentially what things are going to
(31:03):
cost me in the future.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
And a lot of times it's it's doing the simple math,
and that's what is the you know, the part that's
confusing to people as they say, well, I have a
million bucks. All I need is an extra thirty thousand
dollars a year, and I found a bank and it
gives me four percent. So four percent on a million
dollars is forty thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
I'm good.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
That's more than what I actually need on top of
my Social security and pension, right, and I actually have
a little bit more, so I'm good. But no, when
you factor in five, ten, fifteen years out, you put in,
you factor in inflation, then you factor in one of
these curve balls as a scenario, how does it really
impact everything?
Speaker 3 (31:40):
And that's that's what we take a look at.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
So let's make it real simple. So, if you're in
your sixties or seventies, and you're in relatively good health,
and you have half a million, million, whatever the number
is in your era, your wroth, your trust, your joint account,
individual account, whatever it is, you need that to you know,
at least, in my opinion, be earning seven eight percent
(32:04):
per year in order to you know, plan for the future,
so that that five hundred thousand, that million, that grows
by hundreds of thousands, you know, if not doubles over
the next ten years, so that the reality is you're
you're insured, you're prepared for something that is bound to happen.
(32:25):
You make it to your eighties and you need help
with your care. It's going to cost hundreds of thousands
of dollars. It might not even be the sixteen it
might be ten or eight or whatever. It's still going
to be hundreds of thousands of dollars. So you can't
make you know, three four percent on your money and
think for the next ten, twenty thirty years you're fine.
(32:47):
So we'll talk a little bit about some of the
ways that we invest our clients to get to those
seven eight nine percent returns. You're listening to the Wise
Money Guys radio show. I'm your co host John Scammram
here with my partner Guseppe Fiskani, and I'm actually excited
because there are I mean, we probably did a pretty
good job scaring people that they don't have enough money
(33:10):
and that, you know, making such small return I'm scared
is going to get you through the rest of your lives.
I mean, the reality is it isn't, but there are
ways to invest well.
Speaker 4 (33:22):
It is the thing is the essential when we do
like the essential retirement planning of Okay, this is what
I need for spending for retirement planning, maybe some traveling
we use.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
A lot of the time, A lot of the times. Yeah,
I mean two and a half percent inflation is what
we do, right.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
But I'm saying once in a while when we have
clients or prospect there's there would be once in a
while where we ask them like, what do you have
to contribute to all these goals that you want to
achieve as far as retirement spending, maybe travel budget, blah
blah blah blah. And most of the time we can
find a way and strategize to make it work out
to have a high enough probability success to keep them
on keep them on track to hit their goals. Once well,
(34:00):
people will have some ostentatious like oh, I have one
hundred thousand dollars, but I want to spend fifty thousand
dollars a year in retirement for twenty years.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
Okay, impossible? Right.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
The big key is you can't just focus on and
I think this the part that you know, we're not
trying to scare you, but to take in perspective, is
you can't just focus on, Hey, I need an extra
thirty or forty thousand dollars a year from the money
I saved up today on top of my Social Security
and whatever else to to cover my needs. And if
(34:32):
you can do that easily, then it's done.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
And you don't have to worry about it.
Speaker 4 (34:36):
No, because inflation needs away at that purchasing power of
your dollar. You got to factor that in number one,
unless you're calculating for that, most people don't. And then
number two, you want to factor in some of these
quote unquote scary what if because we don't know what's
going to happen, but we do know it does happen.
And I'd say like at least sixty percent of the
(34:56):
time with our clients, we find a predicament and it
could be even, it could be even We even find
scenarios where it's not them themselves, but it's maybe a
parent or loved one family member and they end up
helping a family member. And so those are the things
that are great to see and give you perspective. Now,
so you say, like, Okay, what if XYZ does happen
(35:17):
outside of the essential planning and goals that I need
to have for retirement spending, how does that impact and
then how do we best plan for that or are
the strategies to put in play to help me better
prepare and put me to better position where I'm not
scrambling around?
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Yeah, exactly right. So the reality is, okay, you know,
I'm I'm retired. I'm not really in a position to
where I can be aggressive. How do I get returns
that will help me grow my money even after inflation,
(35:52):
even after I spend twenty thirty thousand dollars a year
to supplement my lifestyle and retire. There are things out
there that's the really good news. That's what I'm excited about.
There are you know, investments which which we can talk about,
which we'll talk about now. Actually that on the scale
(36:13):
of one to ten, you know, right in the middle,
say five risk risk, meaning you're a moderate tens is
you play roulette? One is you know? You you you saving,
you get a savings account, you don't even trust the bank,
you know, CDE Maybe treasuries maybe, yeah, your treasuries is one.
(36:37):
You know, right in the middle of five makes you moderate.
Now you could be slightly to the conservative side with
this investment, say a four. Uh, but it's unbelievable. What
is out there, and one of the things that we're
super excited about that we put people in which has
some downside protection right as well, pays a great annual
(37:02):
rate of return on your money. Should the downside protection
not you know, get beyond the levels not trigger. And
so we're talking about structured notes.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Well, structured investments.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
In generally, structured investments in general.
Speaker 3 (37:20):
Some are focused on incomes, some are focused on growth.
Speaker 4 (37:24):
But we can design either or and have them designed
to be more conservative or more aggressive.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
And real quickly. If you already have a Charles Schwab account,
or Fidelity account, or Goldman account or interactive broker's account,
we're institutional affiliates of all of those. So this particular
couple of structured investments that we're going to talk about,
they need to be put into your portfolio by Friday
(37:52):
next week, so a little over a week, a little
over a business week. And so if you already have
a relatelationship with one of those custodians or brokerage platforms,
and you're going it alone, meaning you're managing your money alone,
and you can you can try us.
Speaker 5 (38:10):
You can't get these types of investments by yourself on
a retail exactly. So we're on the institutional side of Swab,
so a regular investment opening a Schwab account themselves, that's
where I was going.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
Yeah, and they go try and search for this investment.
They can't get it where I was going. Even to
take it a step further is you don't have to
open a new account to try our financial planning and
money management experience services, and you can get something like
what we're what Giuseppe is going to talk about into
your portfolio. Now, we never put all of one's money
(38:44):
into any type of investment, and if you've been listening
for a while, you know that we focus on true
diversification amongst the different asset classes, stocks, bonds, real estate alternatives,
and cash equivalents.
Speaker 3 (38:59):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
In the world of investing, everything falls into one of
those categories. So we're not recommending you go out and
try to find one of these and put one hundred
percent of your money in it.
Speaker 3 (39:10):
Nothing's guaranteed.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
So, but the beauty of it is, if you're somebody
who invests in bonds, invest in stock funds or exchange
traded funds or individual stocks.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
You want something different, and you want something different.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
That has high cash flow and has some downside you know, protection.
This is for you, so detail it a little bit more.
But in order to get more information on this, you'll
have to email us, give us a call, or come
in for a no obligation consultation or sign up and
(39:46):
come to our workshop because we do detail alternative strategies
like this at our workshop again our workshops October fifteenth
from six to seven thirty pm in Conquered at the
Old Spaghetti fact but dive into it a little bit
more before we have to go.
Speaker 3 (40:03):
So this is it's it's timely.
Speaker 4 (40:06):
It's a timely investment because we're in this spot right
now in the market where the market has been very
other than March April May of this year where we
had the basically like a mini crash, it's been a
resilient market and it's been very low volatility and we've
been just up and up and up and up and up.
(40:28):
So if you're worried about, like I have cash, I
don't know where to put it, what would be what
could be some alternatives? I like to get some good
returns in the eight, nine, ten, eleven whatever percent per year,
right which is typically you have to go to stocks
for that, but I'm just scared of where we're at
in the stock market. We just had I just had
a meeting with one of our clients yesterday and he
(40:49):
was worried. He was saying, like, how much higher can
we go? This seems have been kind of ridiculous, And
we agree we're at rich valuations. But you want to
be choosy on your investment. So there's two ways. There's
a couple of different ways you can us in these structured investments.
One is income, which we use a lot of for
our retired clients to produce cash flow. Another one, which
is newer to us, is for growth and focused on
(41:12):
long term capital gains, so it's more tax efficient for
those who have non qualified.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Or just regular taxable brokerage accounts.
Speaker 4 (41:19):
The income one that we have just finalized is paying
nine point seven percent potential, right, So this is the
return you can get per year. But what it does
is it takes a look every month and you have
an opportunity to get a return or payout every month.
Speaker 3 (41:37):
Right.
Speaker 4 (41:37):
So it's got a monthly frequency and it measures it
against three indices. It's the I believe the Dow Jones,
S and P and then the NASDAK equal Weight NASDAQ
one hundred and so it looks at the starting points
and every month that goes by, uh, there's a specified
day in a month, and I'll look back at the
original values of those.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Three indices that I mentioned.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
As long as they haven't gone down, the worst performer
hasn't gone down thirty percent or more, you get paid
out them off.
Speaker 3 (42:04):
Then you continues on.
Speaker 4 (42:06):
Now on the principal side, it actually has a little
bit more of a downside barrier, which is thirty five percent,
and that matters at maturity because this thing is three
years now. The issue were which in this case is
a large investment bank, and you can call this to
find out who it is. They can either call it
(42:26):
meaning that they'll matured early and if so, whatever original
investment you put in there, you get back plus you've
collected where to be collected on the monthly return basis.
But if not, it goes to the full three years.
Then on specific maturity date, which would be in this
case October sixteenth, twenty twenty eight, if the worst performing
indicy that attracts is down more than thirty percent, right,
(42:49):
that's the only way that you're going or thirty five percent.
In this case, that's the only way that you're going
to actually see a principal loss. And when you run
probability statistics on this, it's very mary slim. A second,
the single digits maybe like six percent of the time
five percent of the time in the previous history. Outside
of that, the growth is viewed once a year and
(43:11):
has a potential for fourteen point four percent annualize return
as long as the indices that attracts is flat or
positive even by one point, you get fourteen point four percent.
If it misses year one, but it hits it in
a year two, you get the first year and a
second year, which is twenty eight point eight percent.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Of these strategies that we have come up with and
now give our clients access are just unbelievable opportunities. And
so what I said earlier was you have until Friday
next week. So if you already have a Schwab account,
a Fidelity account, a Goldman account, and you're not satisfied
(43:49):
with how things have been managed, or not satisfied with
some of the solutions and service that you've been receiving,
give us a call at nine to one six nine
six seven and thirty five hundred. Well that's all the
time we have. I hope you enjoyed listening to the
Wise Money Guys radio show. Come back and give us
a listen next week. Have a wonderful weekend by all,
(44:09):
Talk to you next week.
The Wise Money Guys radio show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello and welcome to The Wise Money Guys, a radio show.
I'm your co host John Scambray, and I'm here with my.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Partner Josepa Wisconsin.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
And I should mention that we are certified portfolio managers.
That makes us investment experts. If you're listening to this
show for the first time, Giuseppe and I have been
in this industry for a combined almost fifty years, and
I would say in the region we're one of the
top advisory planning firms, and we're not the ones saying it.
(00:42):
Our clients are extremely satisfied, so much so that often
we get new clients primarily by referral, and we're not
asking for referrals. They just are so satisfied with what
we do that they turn around and refer us to
their friends, family, leagues, so on and so forth. But
that's not what the point of the show is going
(01:03):
to be today. There's a lot going on. We're going
to talk about the government shut down and the reality
is does that affect the markets in a positive way
or a negative way. We're going to talk about some
data versus just maybe what you hear, and what sensational
lot dative data versus the narrative. And one of our
(01:26):
favorite people and favorite firms has coined that because we
are about the data, not the noise, and so we'll
talk more about the government shut down and how that
may or may not affect your investments. Also, I've got
to mention Joseppi that hey, we're only what a couple
of weeks away, almost exactly two weeks away.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
From our workshop.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Yeah, our retiree workshop. So if you're retired or you're
contemplating retire retiring, you'll want to come to our conquered
workshop at the old Spaghetti Factory. It's from six to
seven thirty pm, and which is a Wednesday, and you
need to give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred before it's too late
(02:16):
and all seats are taken. There's still some left, but
we have a lot of interest in people already signed up,
So to come to that October fifteenth workshop if you're
retired or about to retire, and you're concerned about your
investments or want a second opinion on them, or just
generally not blown away by your results or your service
(02:40):
or the solutions that you have. Give us a call
at nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
If you can't make that because it's not in your
area and just want to get on our calendar again,
give us a call at nine one six nine six
seven thirty five hundred. So let's dig in a little
(03:01):
bit here on this government shut down. First and foremost, Well,
I'm just gonna say.
Speaker 4 (03:05):
I'd say before we jump into that, I want to
wrap up September. September oh surprisingly, Oh yeah, typically a
negative month when you look at history, I.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Mean going back to like the forties, right or.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
Yeah, I mean forty four percent of time September has
been positive. But on average, if you average it out,
the market is down almost.
Speaker 3 (03:27):
One percent in September.
Speaker 4 (03:29):
Correct, Yeah, But we we turned out a positive month
in September, So it went against the grain.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
There, yeah, and and and and that may be indicative
of the revision to GDP. I mean, we saw positive
revisions to GDP.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
So this whole you.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Know, the the yield curve which we don't need to
go into the dynamics of that too much. But when
you take unemployment, the yield curve GDP being revised up,
you know, I mean you're.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
I think it's I think you're thinking a little too
deep there.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
Okay, well it's just AI absolutely.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Well, yeah, we'll talk of stoff.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Feds cutting rates, and those two components right there is
like let's jump on the road.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Okay, sure, And quite frankly, interest rates have come down
a shmidge they were a ten year treasury was starting
to creep back and now it's back down closer to
just four percent flat again. So I mean again, when
you add it all up, I think the reason where
I was going with that, the reason why we didn't
see a pullback or a correction in September like the
(04:38):
majority of years past, certainly over the last several decades,
is because of those things. And now you know, the
the the information out there that is, oh my god, okay,
a government shut down, the sky is falling your you know,
millions of people are gonna be unemployed, the economy is
(04:59):
going to go under a recession. This is terrible. But
let's really break it down. You is terrible.
Speaker 4 (05:06):
It could be because I'm supposed to go to San
Francisco for Fleet Week and I saw some article that
it may not go on with this government shutdown.
Speaker 3 (05:14):
I'm not sure.
Speaker 4 (05:15):
How that's gonna happen, but I hope I'm hoping not. Yeah,
I like to see the Blue Angels.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
I highly doubt that Fleet Week will be canceled because
I think the funding for Fleet Week primarily comes and
the funding for the Blue Angels comes from the Navy
and the Department of Defense, and one of the essential
services is the Department of Defense, And so that's let's
let's let's let's really get into the.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Break it down.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
The reality is, I don't believe, and certainly data that
you'll you'll dig into a little bit doesn't suggest that
the sky is falling when the government shuts down, because really,
what is shutting down the people who have been destroying
government and spending and destroying our economic balance sheet, if
(06:08):
you will, Those are the primary resources that get shut down,
I mean, first Congress.
Speaker 4 (06:15):
So therefore we'll have less spending during the shutdown period
exactly right, which is which would be a good thing,
because we got a little bit too much of it
and that's why we had inflation.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
And the main thing that gets shut down is the
House of Representatives. Both the Congress and Senate get shut down.
And so these five hundred and thirty five individuals which
have been bankrupting both sides. I mean, I'm conservative, you're conservative,
But when it comes to facts, the facts are that
(06:46):
politicians have been bankrupting the United States and spending money
frivolously on things that don't benefit Americans for decades. So
getting these politicians out of the way, I hope the
shut down lasts for weeks, for months. I think the
longest in history is what twenty days or forty days
(07:06):
or something like that, isn't there, Well it's not very long,
sadly in my opinion. But the reality is here we are.
We're shut down. You know, it's been you know, three,
four or five days. I don't know the exact days.
But what what what's going on that you know especially
need to be going on?
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Central services are still.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
In Social Security gets paid, still, Medicare still functions and pays,
the military still functions and pay, and all of your
law enforcement activities still function and and get paid. So
really it's the deep state, the bureaucracy and the majority
(07:50):
of these politicians that are worthless that get shut down.
So which is actually healthy, especially when you consider one
thing that a lot of people don't know. This now
will allow Trump to actually let go more of the
federal bureaucracy that is part of the deep state that
(08:14):
spends hundreds of billions of dollars every year with no
accountability whatsoever. That goes to you know, super packs and
you know, less than less than legitimate, you know, not
for profits, countries that don't deserve a nickel, illegal criminal
(08:36):
aliens that absolutely don't deserve a nickel, so on and
so forth.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
And one of the big.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Things spending that doesn't improve our lives, yeah, the lives
of the American people or what we're facing today in
our own very own nation.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
So from an investment perspective, it still boils down to
that fundamentals and technicals of good quality American companies are
how you make money and will continue to make money
and thrive in this marketplace. Because we'll talk about investment
(09:14):
strategy and some investment areas that we like and we
regularly utilize in the show. But at the end of
the day, your your my opinion is government shut down good?
Speaker 3 (09:28):
What about yours?
Speaker 4 (09:30):
You know, I haven't spent a lot of time really
digging into like the true impacts of the central staying
intact versus you know, like you said, just the Congress
and House and them being you know, shut down and
not paid. So I don't know, but I do know.
(09:51):
I think the one benefit, like you said, I do
agree that, you know, it cuts spending, because that's the
very thing that we you know, no matter what side,
we just get away from it, and we just get
way way too ahead and just spend and spend and spend,
and things work out, things don't work out, doesn't matter.
You continue to spend in tax and so on and
so forth. But what I have looked at, you know,
(10:15):
and what I do have here in my notes, is
how does it impact the market? Right? Because that's what
most people were worried about before the shutdown was, oh
my gosh, how's it going to impact the stock market?
Speaker 3 (10:26):
How's it going to impact the economy? Right?
Speaker 2 (10:29):
You're listening to the wise money guys, John scam range A,
set Piveiscani, and we're diving into government shutdowns.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
Are they good or bad? So far?
Speaker 2 (10:40):
We both agree that anything that slows down or stops
government spending is good. And fiscally, we haven't really seen
any major impact. Two, although during a government shutdown, with
reconciliation of the other things, we may be able to
(11:03):
battle some of this Biden spending that's still in the budget.
So that, to me is another good thing. This this
this budget is still basically about a two trillion dollar
proposed additional deficit deficit. So the simple fact that that
(11:25):
didn't get passed and that's why we're shutting down is good.
And and also you know, the one thing we don't
see and I've never seen, is where where's the backlash?
Right the big fear from either party is that, oh
my god, if we're the ones deemed responsible for the
(11:47):
government shut down, we're gonna lose votes. Well, no, not
a single vote is going to change. The vote is
so perfectly divided. You're either left or you're right because
right now there's nothing in the middle that any sort
of legislation, any sort of people in office. Maybe one
(12:09):
maybe one's in the middle that might be Federman, but
that's about it. So I mean, we definitely and when
I say we conservatives, proud Americans, patriots, need to take
this opportunity to clean out some of the things that
were done during the Biden term and even going back
(12:32):
to the Obama term. Did you know that the Inflation
Reduction Act where the majority of the money went.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
To inflation pump up Act?
Speaker 2 (12:43):
It was the Inflation Increase Act. But no, it went
to health care. Not healthcare. That's a whole nother topic.
How they say, oh, we're taking away Americans health care. No,
it went to health insurance premiums and subsidies to illegal
aliens hundred percent. Fact, that's according to the Well.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
I like, I like how they come up with these
titles for these these you know, this Act and that
Inflation Reduction What it's like, we're spending more money.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
How does that?
Speaker 4 (13:12):
How does that reduce inflation? The Inflation Reduction Act, But
we're spending more money. It's an oxymoron. It's it's it's
like the best marketing. Yeah, you know, politicians are probably
the best advertisers and marketers out there. They should just
I think the retired politicians should just opening a marketing
company because it would kill it.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
It makes me wonder are people in the media, especially
the big the Big three, you know, like ABC, CBS,
NBC and all that they own. I mean, are these
people really that ignorant to the to the facts.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
What's going on?
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Just the talking heads on one are the ones running it?
Speaker 2 (13:49):
No, I'm both really talking the wing of the Democratic Party.
But do they honestly think that the Inflation Reduction Act,
as an example, was going to you know, cut inflation
somehow or help the economy?
Speaker 3 (14:07):
Uh in any way?
Speaker 4 (14:08):
You know it was really I'm sure because you can
pick parts of it, focus on those parts that that
support your thesis or your argument.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Right, It's like anything.
Speaker 4 (14:18):
I mean, there's so much information out there, like I
can we can have a discussion and say, do you
believe in aliens? And you may say no, you're crazy? Right,
you're looking at me like you're like, maybe I do.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
I mean, but I can bason time is infinite.
Speaker 4 (14:31):
But I but you could tell me, you know, point blank, no,
you're crazy. I can go on the internet. I can
go my phone and I can start pulling up stuff
to help.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
So you don't think there's uh little green men. But
more importantly, have you ever gone down.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
The rabbit hole? I didn't say.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
I don't think that secretly the moon has been colonized,
and on top of that, there is aliens living amongst us.
Speaker 4 (14:56):
I mean, oh, it's the there there's a there's wormhole.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
There is a wormhole that you can go down.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
My point is, My point is is to your question
of these talking heads on these you know, media outlets
and them spewing this informator, sharing this information with all
their viewers, do they actually believe in what they say?
One they're told what to say. Two they have a biases,
and three they're going to have whatever, you know, pick
(15:27):
picked out piece Like we can take any video of
let's say Trump or Biden and then clip out like
the worst or the best part.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
It will change the narrative, It'll change the whole perspective
of of that clip. Which is why was it NBC
or ABC or CBS got sued by the Trump campaign.
And one because they manipulated. They didn't manipulating and editing.
They they manipulated Kamala Harris's or whatever it was in
(16:01):
a positive way, and then they interview what Trump said
to make it appear you know, negative, and he of
course sued. And that never makes the headlines because they're
never going to admit that to the corruption and fraud
that these mainstream media outlets but utilize.
Speaker 4 (16:22):
But here's the bottom bottom line is media. How does
media make money? They have to they have to sell,
have to view ship. So it's got to be catchy.
It's got, it's got exactly, And that's the problem. And
that's a lot of the stuff that's on the Internet
these days and the information that you try and seek
out there absolutely because you're trying to go after clicks, right,
and how do we get more clicks? How do we
get more viewers? We gotta make we got it. We
(16:43):
have to have some wow factor too, We have to
have some and if it's not, it's just boring.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Yeah, So why do we talk about this? The reality
is is you have to have a good team on
your side to weed through the the overgrowth of noise
and the sensationalism and dig in and try to find
and utilize the data and the facts to make and
(17:12):
really manage one's investment portfolios and help them accomplish their
financial plan.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
You make better educated decisions moving forward, especially when it's
meaningful decisions, whether it's hey, should I buy a house,
should I sell my house? Should I invest in this?
Should I take this pile of cash and do extra
y with it or just sit on it, whatever the
case may be. And to your point, going back to data,
which we haven't talked about yet, is this whole government
(17:38):
shutdown thing, and what has been on the news, what
has been on the major media outlets about it? Right,
it's all of the very worst case scenario, you know,
outcomes that could possibly maybe.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
The minority House leader what's his name, Booker or whatever
it is, I don't know. He's literally going and again
that here's a nothing. So it hits my blood pressure going,
So I should be turning this off, but he's going.
The Republicans have shut down the government to take away
your health care. Okay, that's the narrative that they're the
(18:18):
government shut down is the Republican's fault because they were.
Their budget takes away your health care. No, what it
takes away is the additional health insurance health insurance, not
rights to healthcare, not access to hospitals and doctors, but
takes away the health insurance subsidies to illegal aliens, to
(18:43):
criminal illegal aliens, and people that don't have work visas,
don't have you know, legal residence status. It takes away
the subsidies that were at Obamacare was one thing that
added billions and billions of dollars an annual expense, tens
of billions of dollars an annual expense, and made healthcare
(19:06):
health not healthcare, health insurance less affordable.
Speaker 3 (19:10):
Right. What people don't know.
Speaker 4 (19:12):
Is which health insurance has been in the inflation ridiculous exactly.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
That's one thing that that's one.
Speaker 4 (19:18):
Thing that we actually have to focus on financial planning
when people come to us and say, hey, I want
to retire a little creat care, Yeah, sixty two or
sixty I want to retire. That's one thing that we
have a discussion about. I mean, twenty years ago, it
wasn't that much of a discussion because it wasn't but
now because.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Health insurance was affordable until Obamacare descroying.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Yeah, and even small businesses right now, I mean they're
not hit. They're already hit over the head with a
higher interest rate environment right as far as barring barring
loans or business loans or what have you, but even
starting your own business. I have a I have a
family friend just got into business this year. You know
what the biggest concern and conversation premium three thousand premiums.
(19:58):
It's a family of four. She's got too young, too
little one actually a most recent baby, and then a
daughter who's in I believe fifth grade.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
Now wow, so that's a big gap. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
And his wife is at home because because they decided
to homeschool. So he's the breadwinner, went into business for himself,
and the biggest gripe right and what he's battling with
right now is three thousand dollars a.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Month is his insurance.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
Look at our business, a registered investment advisory FME firm,
and you know, insurance is a major factor our professional liability,
our errors and admissions, our our our our real estate
UH insurance then then health insurance, insurance, auto, you know,
auto insurance, so on when you add up all the
(20:47):
insurance because it's it's a huge percentage.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
But you have to have but you have to have it. Yeah,
So like you said, no, we can't, we can We'll
just do without it because we want to cut costs.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
So the reality is is that the things that you
do in response to what is going on current event wise,
like a shutdown, like you know, some of the financial
data that the fiscal or monetary decisions happening. Is crucial
(21:19):
to be with a firm and a team that doesn't
panic first and foremost helps you stick to what your
goals and objectives are. Because we're going to talk about,
you know, and and did talk about last show on
how people you know, get all discombobulated, but just strategy wise,
(21:41):
first of all, main thing is do not fall. And
I hope you you got this from our conversation so far.
Do not fall for the narrative by mainstream media that
the government shut down, you should panic and that the
sky is falling and you know, you should hide in
(22:02):
your bunker. That is absolutely not the case. And Jesse,
I see your notes here.
Speaker 4 (22:10):
Yeah, since nineteen seventy six twenty funding gaps, ten of
them resulted in actual shutdowns. There were federal employee furloughs.
But then when you look at, okay, well how did
that impact the stock market? To s and P five
hundred when these shutdowns occurred, and really it's a nothing burger,
meaning that there might have been slight you know, some
(22:31):
were like slide down, some were actually slide up, but
when you look at the average across it's pretty much flat.
I mean at the the you know, the investment community
in the market. They basically just looked past the political.
Speaker 3 (22:43):
Drama exactly right.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
And so we said months ago that we thought the market,
the stock market, whether it's the S and P five hundred,
the Nasdaq, the Dow, for the most part, the overall
stock market should finish pretty strong. We thought that that
were there would be a melt up, and we still
(23:06):
believe that. So again, this isn't time to necessarily dump stocks.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
It absolutely isn't the time to do that. But we
are richly valued.
Speaker 4 (23:17):
And also you want to and you want to be
choosy on the stocks that you that you do choo.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
You don't want to just blanket. So that's where I
was going. I mean, it is a good time.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
I mean again, you look at some of the prices
of you know, for example, Meta Tesla now back into
the four hundreds, Meta in the seven hundreds, Apple close
close to her in the two fifties, Microsoft in the
five hundreds, and on and on and on, and if
you've been holding those for a while, like many of
(23:49):
our clients, I mean, if it's an out of whack position,
meaning where you have one of those or some of
those and they're now you know too concentrated twenty thirty percent,
you know of your portfolio, of your portfolio in one position,
you definitely want to and have those trim backed a little.
(24:10):
Never regret locking in a massive profit. Only regret that
you should have locked in a massive profit and you didn't.
Speaker 4 (24:19):
Well, I think the I think the good thing in
what we ask our clients sometimes, especially when you have
a position or maybe a couple positions that have dominated
in your portfolio and now they've become a big chunk
of your overall portfolio, like you said, twenty thirty maybe
forty percent of your overall portfolio. While they're doing great,
it's great because it drags your whole portfolio value and
your performance up. But what you have to ask yourself is, Okay,
(24:42):
let's say you had a million dollar portfolio and let's
say three hundred thousand of it was in Vidio for example.
That's done fantastic. So, but let's say you had a
million dollars cash and you started a brand new portfolio.
Would you take three hundred thousand dollars and invest it
in one stock? And if the answer is no, oh,
then it's then it's time to trim some. It's not
(25:02):
that you just sell it, but you can trim some.
There's other strategies too. You could put what's called stop
losses in there, or if you said, hey, I'm up
like four hundred, well put put a lot, put a
line in the sand and say, well, if it gets
down to X price right, I want out. And there's
ways that you can do that. You know, depending on
(25:22):
the brokerage service that you use. If you have more
questions about it or not sure what the heck I'm
talking about, definitely can give us a call as well.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
Yep, called nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Absolutely get on our calendar for a no obligation consultation.
In these types of situations where we've had huge run ups,
it's always wise to update. You know your portfolio. And
and again if you're doing things yourself, haven't made any
(25:50):
changes or you haven't seen any changes to your model,
as just Seppi said, if you've got a position that's
now a huge part of your portfolio, come in get
a second opinion or come to our workshop on October
fifteenth and Conquered at the Old Spaghetti Factory from six
to seven thirty pm called nine one six ninety six
(26:10):
seven thirty five hundred strategically, don't abandon your financial plan. Also,
if you don't have a financial plan, get one. We
do an absolutely free financial planning consultation for clients or
or people who want to potentially consider us prospective clients,
(26:35):
and we don't charge for that. We'll spend the time,
you know, helping you establish a baseline, comprehensive financial plan
that then if you do decide to hire us, we'll
use that as your roadmap that we update regularly, especially
if changes to your portfolio need to be made or
(26:58):
your personal situation has changed, so with that we need
to update your plan or your portfolio or something at
a macro level, like maybe something you know really bad
does happen on the geopolitical or economic front, or.
Speaker 4 (27:13):
Maybe personally maybe you know you I mean, we had
a client that she her husband has some medical issues,
and she's been caring for her husband and so finally
now she's going to be putting him into a care facility,
you know, and that is costly, you know, and I'm
actually surprised on how crazy the costs are because.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
It's twelve for us, it's not don't tell me more
it's sixteen thousand a month.
Speaker 4 (27:40):
And then I just had a meeting with one of
our other clients. Unfortunately the mom passed away, but in conversation,
for about three months she was in a care facility,
and I guess after the three months was kind of
like the the window period of time that her benefits
was covering her there figuring out, okay, if this has
(28:01):
to like stretch on a little bit longer and further,
like what is the cost eighteen thousand dollars for that
particular here in Sacramento eighteen And here's the sad part
about it is that it's so expensive. And the one
that's sixteen thousand dollars a month, I personally know because
my grandfather was in this care facility when he had COVID.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
He was in his nineties, so.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
He was in there my mom. It was so bad. Literally,
my mom took him out and said, I'm going to
care because he was living with my parents at the time.
I'm going to care for him at home. That's how
bad it was there. But one of my best friends.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
He wasn't in a care home in New York because
remember Cuomo was responsible for what they say, purposely you know,
not helping people in elderly type establishments responsible for these
ninety year olds and eighty year olds and many of
them you know, dying.
Speaker 4 (28:54):
Well and you're not getting You're not getting the level
of care. You're not getting actually level cares you should
be getting on a normal, just essential basis, but let
alone sixteen thousand dollars a month level. So when you
factor those things in, those are the curveballs that we
really look at when we're putting a plan together because
you can't plan them. Nobody has a crystal ball, and
(29:14):
hopefully that scenario or event doesn't happen within your lifetime,
but if it does, you don't want to be you know,
hit with a curveball though, So you're like, oh my gosh,
I gotta sell my house, I gotta do this, I
gotta I can't do that, and you're panicking that.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
It all boils down to how important our strategy, our
overall philosophy is to helping people in retirement or about
to retire, manage their money, help them create you know,
a workable, living, breathing, highly probable probable financial plan because
(29:53):
we focus on cash flow.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
Right.
Speaker 2 (29:56):
The thing is here, I mean is anybody really planning
for sixteen thousand dollars a month for a care I mean,
think about it. If you you know most of the
people that have been retired for a while, you know,
five years, ten years or more, when they got to
a million dollars. Maybe you have so security, you have
(30:17):
your pension, you have a million dollars, you have no debt,
and you thought, hey, million dollars, I'm good. But sixteen
thousand dollars a month, I mean you're talking almost two
hundred thousand dollars a year. In a year, even if
you have a million dollars, I mean in five years,
half of it's gone.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
Well, so if it stays at the same rate, but
they're gonna raise it every year.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
Oh it's gonna get worse.
Speaker 2 (30:41):
So these these times don't allow you to think, oh,
I have a million dollars and that I can be
satisfied with a three percent bank rate, CD rate, savings rate,
even a four percent treasury rate. To take that, I'm
to keep up with potentially what things are going to
(31:03):
cost me in the future.
Speaker 4 (31:04):
And a lot of times it's it's doing the simple math,
and that's what is the you know, the part that's
confusing to people as they say, well, I have a
million bucks. All I need is an extra thirty thousand
dollars a year, and I found a bank and it
gives me four percent. So four percent on a million
dollars is forty thousand dollars.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
I'm good.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
That's more than what I actually need on top of
my Social security and pension, right, and I actually have
a little bit more, so I'm good. But no, when
you factor in five, ten, fifteen years out, you put in,
you factor in inflation, then you factor in one of
these curve balls as a scenario, how does it really
impact everything?
Speaker 3 (31:40):
And that's that's what we take a look at.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
So let's make it real simple. So, if you're in
your sixties or seventies, and you're in relatively good health,
and you have half a million, million, whatever the number
is in your era, your wroth, your trust, your joint account,
individual account, whatever it is, you need that to you know,
at least, in my opinion, be earning seven eight percent
(32:04):
per year in order to you know, plan for the future,
so that that five hundred thousand, that million, that grows
by hundreds of thousands, you know, if not doubles over
the next ten years, so that the reality is you're
you're insured, you're prepared for something that is bound to happen.
(32:25):
You make it to your eighties and you need help
with your care. It's going to cost hundreds of thousands
of dollars. It might not even be the sixteen it
might be ten or eight or whatever. It's still going
to be hundreds of thousands of dollars. So you can't
make you know, three four percent on your money and
think for the next ten, twenty thirty years you're fine.
(32:47):
So we'll talk a little bit about some of the
ways that we invest our clients to get to those
seven eight nine percent returns. You're listening to the Wise
Money Guys radio show. I'm your co host John Scammram
here with my partner Guseppe Fiskani, and I'm actually excited
because there are I mean, we probably did a pretty
good job scaring people that they don't have enough money
(33:10):
and that, you know, making such small return I'm scared
is going to get you through the rest of your lives.
I mean, the reality is it isn't, but there are
ways to invest well.
Speaker 4 (33:22):
It is the thing is the essential when we do
like the essential retirement planning of Okay, this is what
I need for spending for retirement planning, maybe some traveling
we use.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
A lot of the time, A lot of the times. Yeah,
I mean two and a half percent inflation is what
we do, right.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
But I'm saying once in a while when we have
clients or prospect there's there would be once in a
while where we ask them like, what do you have
to contribute to all these goals that you want to
achieve as far as retirement spending, maybe travel budget, blah
blah blah blah. And most of the time we can
find a way and strategize to make it work out
to have a high enough probability success to keep them
on keep them on track to hit their goals. Once well,
(34:00):
people will have some ostentatious like oh, I have one
hundred thousand dollars, but I want to spend fifty thousand
dollars a year in retirement for twenty years.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
Okay, impossible? Right.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
The big key is you can't just focus on and
I think this the part that you know, we're not
trying to scare you, but to take in perspective, is
you can't just focus on, Hey, I need an extra
thirty or forty thousand dollars a year from the money
I saved up today on top of my Social Security
and whatever else to to cover my needs. And if
(34:32):
you can do that easily, then it's done.
Speaker 3 (34:34):
And you don't have to worry about it.
Speaker 4 (34:36):
No, because inflation needs away at that purchasing power of
your dollar. You got to factor that in number one,
unless you're calculating for that, most people don't. And then
number two, you want to factor in some of these
quote unquote scary what if because we don't know what's
going to happen, but we do know it does happen.
And I'd say like at least sixty percent of the
(34:56):
time with our clients, we find a predicament and it
could be even, it could be even We even find
scenarios where it's not them themselves, but it's maybe a
parent or loved one family member and they end up
helping a family member. And so those are the things
that are great to see and give you perspective. Now,
so you say, like, Okay, what if XYZ does happen
(35:17):
outside of the essential planning and goals that I need
to have for retirement spending, how does that impact and
then how do we best plan for that or are
the strategies to put in play to help me better
prepare and put me to better position where I'm not
scrambling around?
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Yeah, exactly right. So the reality is, okay, you know,
I'm I'm retired. I'm not really in a position to
where I can be aggressive. How do I get returns
that will help me grow my money even after inflation,
(35:52):
even after I spend twenty thirty thousand dollars a year
to supplement my lifestyle and retire. There are things out
there that's the really good news. That's what I'm excited about.
There are you know, investments which which we can talk about,
which we'll talk about now. Actually that on the scale
(36:13):
of one to ten, you know, right in the middle,
say five risk risk, meaning you're a moderate tens is
you play roulette? One is you know? You you you saving,
you get a savings account, you don't even trust the bank,
you know, CDE Maybe treasuries maybe, yeah, your treasuries is one.
(36:37):
You know, right in the middle of five makes you moderate.
Now you could be slightly to the conservative side with
this investment, say a four. Uh, but it's unbelievable. What
is out there, and one of the things that we're
super excited about that we put people in which has
some downside protection right as well, pays a great annual
(37:02):
rate of return on your money. Should the downside protection
not you know, get beyond the levels not trigger. And
so we're talking about structured notes.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Well, structured investments.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
In generally, structured investments in general.
Speaker 3 (37:20):
Some are focused on incomes, some are focused on growth.
Speaker 4 (37:24):
But we can design either or and have them designed
to be more conservative or more aggressive.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
And real quickly. If you already have a Charles Schwab account,
or Fidelity account, or Goldman account or interactive broker's account,
we're institutional affiliates of all of those. So this particular
couple of structured investments that we're going to talk about,
they need to be put into your portfolio by Friday
(37:52):
next week, so a little over a week, a little
over a business week. And so if you already have
a relatelationship with one of those custodians or brokerage platforms,
and you're going it alone, meaning you're managing your money alone,
and you can you can try us.
Speaker 5 (38:10):
You can't get these types of investments by yourself on
a retail exactly. So we're on the institutional side of Swab,
so a regular investment opening a Schwab account themselves, that's
where I was going.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
Yeah, and they go try and search for this investment.
They can't get it where I was going. Even to
take it a step further is you don't have to
open a new account to try our financial planning and
money management experience services, and you can get something like
what we're what Giuseppe is going to talk about into
your portfolio. Now, we never put all of one's money
(38:44):
into any type of investment, and if you've been listening
for a while, you know that we focus on true
diversification amongst the different asset classes, stocks, bonds, real estate alternatives,
and cash equivalents.
Speaker 3 (38:59):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
In the world of investing, everything falls into one of
those categories. So we're not recommending you go out and
try to find one of these and put one hundred
percent of your money in it.
Speaker 3 (39:10):
Nothing's guaranteed.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
So, but the beauty of it is, if you're somebody
who invests in bonds, invest in stock funds or exchange
traded funds or individual stocks.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
You want something different, and you want something different.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
That has high cash flow and has some downside you know, protection.
This is for you, so detail it a little bit more.
But in order to get more information on this, you'll
have to email us, give us a call, or come
in for a no obligation consultation or sign up and
(39:46):
come to our workshop because we do detail alternative strategies
like this at our workshop again our workshops October fifteenth
from six to seven thirty pm in Conquered at the
Old Spaghetti fact but dive into it a little bit
more before we have to go.
Speaker 3 (40:03):
So this is it's it's timely.
Speaker 4 (40:06):
It's a timely investment because we're in this spot right
now in the market where the market has been very
other than March April May of this year where we
had the basically like a mini crash, it's been a
resilient market and it's been very low volatility and we've
been just up and up and up and up and up.
(40:28):
So if you're worried about, like I have cash, I
don't know where to put it, what would be what
could be some alternatives? I like to get some good
returns in the eight, nine, ten, eleven whatever percent per year,
right which is typically you have to go to stocks
for that, but I'm just scared of where we're at
in the stock market. We just had I just had
a meeting with one of our clients yesterday and he
(40:49):
was worried. He was saying, like, how much higher can
we go? This seems have been kind of ridiculous, And
we agree we're at rich valuations. But you want to
be choosy on your investment. So there's two ways. There's
a couple of different ways you can us in these structured investments.
One is income, which we use a lot of for
our retired clients to produce cash flow. Another one, which
is newer to us, is for growth and focused on
(41:12):
long term capital gains, so it's more tax efficient for
those who have non qualified.
Speaker 3 (41:17):
Or just regular taxable brokerage accounts.
Speaker 4 (41:19):
The income one that we have just finalized is paying
nine point seven percent potential, right, So this is the
return you can get per year. But what it does
is it takes a look every month and you have
an opportunity to get a return or payout every month.
Speaker 3 (41:37):
Right.
Speaker 4 (41:37):
So it's got a monthly frequency and it measures it
against three indices. It's the I believe the Dow Jones,
S and P and then the NASDAK equal Weight NASDAQ
one hundred and so it looks at the starting points
and every month that goes by, uh, there's a specified
day in a month, and I'll look back at the
original values of those.
Speaker 3 (41:58):
Three indices that I mentioned.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
As long as they haven't gone down, the worst performer
hasn't gone down thirty percent or more, you get paid
out them off.
Speaker 3 (42:04):
Then you continues on.
Speaker 4 (42:06):
Now on the principal side, it actually has a little
bit more of a downside barrier, which is thirty five percent,
and that matters at maturity because this thing is three
years now. The issue were which in this case is
a large investment bank, and you can call this to
find out who it is. They can either call it
(42:26):
meaning that they'll matured early and if so, whatever original
investment you put in there, you get back plus you've
collected where to be collected on the monthly return basis.
But if not, it goes to the full three years.
Then on specific maturity date, which would be in this
case October sixteenth, twenty twenty eight, if the worst performing
indicy that attracts is down more than thirty percent, right,
(42:49):
that's the only way that you're going or thirty five percent.
In this case, that's the only way that you're going
to actually see a principal loss. And when you run
probability statistics on this, it's very mary slim. A second,
the single digits maybe like six percent of the time
five percent of the time in the previous history. Outside
of that, the growth is viewed once a year and
(43:11):
has a potential for fourteen point four percent annualize return
as long as the indices that attracts is flat or
positive even by one point, you get fourteen point four percent.
If it misses year one, but it hits it in
a year two, you get the first year and a
second year, which is twenty eight point eight percent.
Speaker 2 (43:28):
Of these strategies that we have come up with and
now give our clients access are just unbelievable opportunities. And
so what I said earlier was you have until Friday
next week. So if you already have a Schwab account,
a Fidelity account, a Goldman account, and you're not satisfied
(43:49):
with how things have been managed, or not satisfied with
some of the solutions and service that you've been receiving,
give us a call at nine to one six nine
six seven and thirty five hundred. Well that's all the
time we have. I hope you enjoyed listening to the
Wise Money Guys radio show. Come back and give us
a listen next week. Have a wonderful weekend by all,
(44:09):
Talk to you next week.
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