July 2, 2025 • 43 mins
The International Markets are tettering with Tariffs and uncertainty. How do you invest in situations like that? Hosts John and Giuseppe tell us we need to keep agile with our financial opportunities. Then, the Iran affect, being a fiduciary, and accont dynamics with portfolios. The Wise Money Guys.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
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our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show. I'm your
co host, John Scambrand. I'm here with my partner just
up you Wisconsin. We are certified portfolio managers that specialize
in helping people who are retired are about to retire
manage their money. If you like our show, have comments
or questions, or more importantly, want to meet for a
no obligation consultation, give us a call at nine one
(00:37):
six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again that numbers
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. For
full disclosures, go to our website wisemoneyguys dot com. Scroll
to the bottom of the page and you'll see all
the required regulatory disclosures and all as Always, keep in
mind that past performances and guarantee of future results, and
(01:00):
there is no such strategy or product or service that
can absolutely guarantee you from never losing money. In fact,
if somebody promises you you can never lose money on
a particular investment run and then give us a call
at nine one six six seven thirty five hundred. So
what are we talking about, EPPI. So you've got about
(01:23):
two pages of notes there, so.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
You flip to the backside, it's three.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
It's three double printed. Oh yeah, okay, we do. We
got three pages of notes here. Obviously a lot going on.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Yeah, tech tech led rally again, so we're kind of
back in this narrow breadth where it's really about these
big tech names that are carrying the market from where
we left off at the lows in April. The other
is the revisions to the GDP contraction that we had
last quarter, So we'll talk a little bit about that
(01:57):
that actually dipped below.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Really targeting one point four? What was the FED targeting?
I forget, No, it's just a revision from the last reading.
So it was a contraction of point three. Oh got
now it's a revision. Now it's a revision. The revision
came in. It's actually a contraction of point five. Yeah,
do you have in your list? I mean, we also
saw like retail sales lower than expected. But now here
we are and we're seeing once again earnings already start
(02:23):
off with some tech names and things being like Micron,
you know, blew away their earnings. Yet the price as
of this morning was was down interestingly, so you know,
don't know what's going on there. But then there's been
others that have, you know, really set the stage for
another big and earnings period with surprises, meets and beats
(02:49):
to the to the upside. So I mean, even though
we're starting to believe the S and P five hundred,
especially the weighted S and P five hundred is now
over at SKIS again, so I would caution people here
to start looking at maybe trimming, especially if you've got
you know, large concentrations in the mag seven like in
(03:13):
video or those and videos at an old time record, yeah,
you know, it's previous old time record I think was
one forty nine and change, and I saw, you know,
during the week it hit one fifty five and climbing.
So don't know where exactly closed.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
But even though the China market's kind of off off
off right, China's threatened that they're not going to be
purchasing as much, you know, And I was reading and
some of what I have in my notes too, outside
of just the normal most recent current financial events and
what's been going on in the market and economy is
(03:50):
just what's been going on in the twenty twenties, right,
March of twenty twenty, and what took place in twenty
twenty and just the volatility we have got and then
entered deviation and then all of oh yeah, and then
all of the events that have taken place since then, right,
and just the more market psychology that everyone's kind of
(04:14):
adapted to, which is essentially they put it, it's react, crash, recover.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Forget, right, say that three times fast? What was that? Stop,
drop and roll pretty much.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
And then forget and then forget there was ever a
fire and what caused a fire and the risks of
having a fire and what to do to prevent a fire,
and so people get amnesia pretty quickly after.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Yeah, isn't it funny that you know people forget have
already forgotten twenty two right, because even though we had
both stocks and bonds down double digits, you know, they
start getting underdiversified and over concentrated. And that's what we're
starting to see when we get you know, when we're
sitting down for the first time with new potential clients,
(05:05):
we're starting to see that. You know, they have way
too much inequities, or they think they're diversified amongst different
sectors and different classes of investments, and they're not at all,
And in fact, many times they have no idea exactly
you know what their pie chart looks like. Right, if
(05:26):
you're looking at the pie chart, if your pie charts.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
And Magnificent seven, you've been doing pretty good.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Oh you've been crushing it. But now you know, we
just like we saw in February February, in March, you know,
the mag seven came down thirty to fifty percent on
you know which particular position you were in. Mean, you
look at Tesla. Tesla got up there and got excited
about the robo you know, romo taxi launch, and now
(05:52):
it's trimmed down, you know, quite a bit. But but
again it's all about and I'm glad you mentioned volatility
because I don't think people truly know what their standard
deviation is or what their roller coaster ride score is, right,
and how much risk they really have inside their portfolios.
(06:13):
And that's one of the main things that we look
at because when we're going to truly diversify somebody based
on whatever their goals and objectives are. We're looking at
what the standard deviation is of each category or each
specific investment that we're putting you in. And obviously, the
better the return you can get with the low the
(06:35):
lower standard deviation compared to the S and P five hundred,
you know, the better off you might be, especially once
things like the stock market is out over at skis now.
I think there's still value out there, sure, obviously, sure,
and and well.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
I think the other part too is, you know, institutions
have been a lot more hedge funds and institute have
been a lot more conservative. Yeah, they were, they were
raising cash, raising cash short in the market, and I
think they're playing catch up, you know, for the second
quarter to you know, shore up some performance numbers and
(07:15):
at least have some decent numbers that they can go
back on, get their bonuses, so on and so forth.
We'll see if it continues to stick once Q two,
you know, is done and we go into the new quarter.
I think there's I mean, it's funny because when April
and we hit the lows right and market was pulling back,
(07:38):
SMP was down twenty two Nasdaq was down twenty seven
percent at that period of time from from peak to trough,
we saw a lot of recession, and you know that
all these things that are going to be catalysts to
drive the market down further or cause a recession. And
then we had a GDP print that was actually contracting,
(08:01):
it was negative, which we haven't had a little while.
Now everything's being ignored and continuing to just lift up,
and now estimates are coming coming back higher. Goldman Sachs
is raising, City Bank is raising Bank of America is
raising S and P five hundred years.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Isn't that funny? I mean, wow, yeah, wow. You're so
good that you can after things go up, after they go.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Down, after they and this is after they've adjusted down.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
That's what I'm saying. But people pay people for that information.
People pay these big investment banks and banks, you know,
millions and billions of dollars for after the fact hindsight information.
I mean, we've been talking on the show for years,
me for years, and you for you know, over a
(08:52):
year now on what we expect and what we think
you should do based on what's happening now and what
we predict it is going to happen. That's the only
thing you should be paying people, you know, for when
it comes to managing your money, in my opinion, because
anybody can go, oh yeah, see, you know you shouldn't
(09:13):
have been in the S and P.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Well, there's going to be recession. We're going to lower
our SMP year end target. And then things start not
things start to turn around. Max seven wakes up again.
It's dragging the market up, and video is hitting all
time new highs and like, oh yeah, we said S
and P five hundred is going to finish a year
at fifty eight hundred. Just kidding, it's going to finish
a year at sixty five hundred. But if things turn around,
(09:38):
if you know, the Middle East, you know, starts to
you know, they break this truce that they're on and
war and oil starts to go up, and let's say
PC and inflation starts to heat it. And then also
oh no, no.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Yeah, we're revising, We're going back to it. Yeah. Well,
and quite frankly speaking of the war in the Middle East,
I mean, defensive stocks pulled back a little bit with
the true so now you know there's probably some value there.
Oils pulled back at least the price per barrel. You know,
I don't have Chevron or Exon or any of those,
or Fang or or any of them in front of
(10:11):
me at the moment. But you know, I suspect that
there's some value there, maybe MPC, Marathon Petroleum Corp. You know,
some of those areas. And if you look at the
gas you know they can the gas companies, they're still wild,
wildly profitable even when oil is in the sixties or seventies.
And then if it gets down into the fifties, you know,
(10:34):
you'll I think you'll see the Chevrons and the Exons,
you know, pop. So you know, keep that in mind.
I mean, that's the point I was trying to make though,
based on what's happening is how we zig and zag
for our clients. If your person isn't zigging or zagging
based on the data, based on you know, what's what's happening,
(10:58):
based on what's projected to happen, and if you wait
till something has already happened, then it's too late. I mean,
you need to be working with proactive, proactive being the
key word. Proactive active money managers who are constantly based
on your goals and objectives, but based on what's happening
(11:19):
in the world being proactive with your portfolio. Otherwise, again,
what are you paying for? And it boggles the mind.
And one of the things that we were talking about
is obviously, you know, some of the things that are
posing potential now headwinds to the market. Now circle back,
(11:43):
at the beginning of the year, we said we thought
there was more tailwinds than headwinds, and once again we
were right through throughout the year.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
But at the beginning of the year we were saying
that it's going to be a bumpy ride. We all
because of major policy shift and we knew tariffs are coming.
Nobody knew how large or how impactful they were going
to be. So and it was a bumpy ride, for sure.
It was bumpety ride.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
But still we're close to all time not not you know,
the highs of the all time highs. Once again, the
S and P is very close, the Nasdaq's very close,
you know, Dows a thousand points.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Away or so.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
But when you're looking at forty three thousand or the
forty four thousand, you know, percentage wise, that's only about
a two percent pop for the Dow to be at
an all time high. But again, it really comes down
to you know how you play this market and what
potential you know, pitfalls are out there. Certainly the FED
(12:42):
not cutting in July when now you have the bets
for the FED cutting FED funds in July going up.
So if he didn't, that would be a disappointment, right
then don't you also have and I'm looking over your
shoulder at your pages, but isn't there also some potential
deadlines for TARA coming which might you know?
Speaker 3 (13:02):
So the valuations are they going to be hard deadlines?
Are they going to be further delayed? You know? That's
those are the things that we can't predict, right, You
can't forecast. But what we do know is Q one
contracted revised numbers came in and a little bit bigger
from point three too point five. The contributing factors to
(13:25):
that were TERRORF related headwinds, lower consumer spending, which is
the biggest part of GDP, and higher import volumes, which
I think that is probably a one off, just because
companies and businesses trying to get ahead, you know, building
up inventory because they didn't know what what's going to
(13:46):
what this teriff you know scenario is going to amount
to and if they need to stock you know, increase
or stockpile or not. So we'll see how that impacts.
The other is unemployment. I mean, Microsoft we talked about
last week has has started to trickle a little bit, yea,
(14:07):
and you know weekly number weekly jobs claims fell, but
there is an expectation of unemployment rising. Now if that
takes place, I mean, the the you know, conversation or
the speech from Jerome Powell was a wait and see,
you know, continuing to be a wait and see scenario.
(14:27):
And one of his arguments is because unemployment, you know,
I mean, we're still resilient. Unemployment is still low, so
we're on full employment. So if that starts trickling up,
then the few FED presidents that were on board of yeah,
we can probably look at starting to cut rates next
month right in July. Maybe that you know, leans Powell
(14:48):
a little bit further to those three Fed pet presidents
to maybe start cutting rates if unemployment starts to tick up.
So we'll gain to see. But I think the the
things that are kind of on a thin line or
thin ice right now that could cause more volatility like
we've had is the Middle East tensions arising again, the
(15:11):
truth being broken right which how many decades have they
been fighting, I.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Mean, not decades, centuries. Yeah, you know, the war over
religion has been happening for centuries forever, forever, going back
to the Egyptians and the Hebrews and you know, and
then the Crusades and hundreds of years.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Right, So if that truth is broken, obviously that's going
to cause balatility in the markets. The tariff deadlines, I
think are are bigger, you know, catalysts that if the
delays are hard lines and revert back and some of
the you know, agreements or reverted back to the higher
elevated tariffs.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
I don't see. I don't see the market. I think
investors are kind of over it though. Even if I
think even if tru Up you know, turns around and says,
well we didn't we haven't finalized this deal or that deal,
and you know, they're popping back up, I.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Don't think that they're over it. I think the market,
my opinion of the market right now.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
Is and when we say that we're talking about the
stock market.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
It's like it's it is it's reaching for that next
serotonin high, that next sugar high. Really, no, that is
more important than than to than to like look within
and say.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Yeah, fundamentals are are basically out the window. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
So it's like here, here's another piece of candy, like okay,
yeah right, and then the market just shoots up and
it's not realizing like, hey, I've ate too much candy here,
I'm getting too much of a sugar high.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Are you talking about yourself right now?
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Well? I did have you, I did have I did
have some leftover timasu from from my family's restaurant. Man,
just I had like a piece every ding I was.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
I was trying to prevent myself from going to the table.
Where was that Everybody's getting the big pieces over there,
and I'm going all my mouth watered. Yeah, when I
was looking at the terror of the zoo.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Yeah, then when you bring all those leftovers home, you're like, oh,
I can't let it go to waste.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Right, you feel so bad letting it go to waste exactly.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
But that's that's how I feel of the market. It's
it's it's very optimistic and it looked at reaches and
grabs for anything that's positive out there, and then it
just holds onto it and then we and then we rally, right,
But then it's very reactionary that if there's some certain
bad news like we saw when you know it was
(17:34):
US and China and they continue to have a retaliatory
environment where they just raised raised the level of tariffs, right,
we saw go the other direction. So I think it
could be very reactionary. Things happen so fast. I mean
I was reading some data in twenty twenty, so in March,
which is a very different circumstance because the whole world
was shut down. But in March in twenty twenty had
(17:56):
twenty two trading days. Okay, only one of those days
was plus or minus one percent. As far as a
move right, there was sixteen days. It was eight days
that was up three percent, and eight days of those
twenty two days that were down three percent. I mean,
there's a wild, wild right. And if you look at
(18:16):
just what the twenty twenties have provided so far as
far as catalyst of markets going down or black swan
events or what have you. We've had the COVID nineteen pandemic. Obviously,
we've had the meme stock craze, which was peloton. We
thought it was going to go through themc game game stop.
(18:37):
You know, businesses that have like zero fundamentals, but they
were just going through, just going to the moon, right
from all these retail traders. We had nine percent inflation,
the highest inflation that we've sustained in like forty years.
Federate hikes from zero to five percent, and not only
just raising rates but raising the fastest clip that we've seen.
(19:00):
Silicon Valley bank panic. Oh right, we had that run
on many bank crash, right. We had help out.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
By taxpayers and and and the Fed of course.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Well, and I think, and you bring up a good point.
I think that is what the market, in the investment
community is now getting used to. It's we've seen these
things happen, but then we see the government come in, daddy,
Daddy come in, bust out his wallet and you know,
or fix things, right, So I think that is really
(19:35):
what you know. So that's what I mean by you know, oh,
we have this tariff delay for ninety days. Okay, let
me grab that piece of candy, and market's rally. We
had the en carry trade, right, we had the deep
seek and then the end carry trade, which caused a
lot of alativity for these big tech names that have
been sharing the market recently. Yep, chip makers, liberation Day,
(19:57):
which was the start of the tear regime, right and
all the volatility that that caused. And then more recently
we had the Middle East and then the US bombing
Iran and Israel and Iran going back and forth and
now rather of truth. So hopefully that stays pat but
it could be very quick that some of these things resurface.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Well you saw just speaking not to get too much sidetracked,
but you know the I guess it's the parliament. I
don't know what you call it when you have you know,
the UK. No, the political structure of Iran, but they
were chanting death to the US, their their political structure's
death to the US and death to Israel. I mean
(20:42):
obviously they haven't learned their lesson. I mean their their
air powers history, their missile defense history, Their missile you know,
capability is decimated. Obviously them getting a nuclear bomb isn't
can happen. And all of this matters because it puts
(21:04):
pressure and uncertainty on investment, and no matter what is happening,
good or bad, you don't have to worry about these
things as much if you're not you know, over betting
on one category of investment and one or two particular positions.
(21:24):
And when you're retired, especially in your sixties, seventies or eighties,
why you would want that stress level to not have
a high dividend, high income producing portfolio that's lower volatility
than the typical S and P five hundred position is
(21:45):
beyond me. In fact, if you saw your portfolio swing
quite a bit from the start of the year or
really the end of last year through you know, first
first first quarter, now it's come back a little bit.
If you don't want to suffer that again, absolutely come
(22:05):
in and see us by calling nine one six ninety
six seven thirty five hundred. I guarantee it will be
a good use of your time. Even if you don't
decide to hire us as as your money management financial
planning firm, you will get something out of it that
helps you. I can guarantee that. So keep listening to
(22:26):
the wise money guys, John Scambray to Septi Viscontin and
I forgot to give our phone number off nine one
six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Give us call
it nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Why you should do that. By the way, we're not
just a couple of guys who decided to do a
radio show and then start helping people with their goals
(22:47):
and objectives when it came to their investments, or their finances,
or the retirement or their legacy. No decade into doing
this for a combined decades, you know, me over thirty years,
Giuseppe working on twenty years. We're also students of this
industry long before we did this radio show. We're both
(23:10):
certified portfolio managers that that advanced credentially came from sad
to say this part because of just the nonsense going on,
but Columbia University, which is still a very impressive applied
mathematics university, and Giuseppe also holds a master's in economics
(23:32):
and finance, and both of us, of course have undergraduate degrees,
but more importantly, we're battle tested. We've been helping people
with their investments, as I said, for decades, and then
we decided to partner and bring you know, what we
do and information and just education and council to you know,
(23:54):
to the public through a radio show long after we
ever got in this industry. So if the type of
person you're looking for is one that has helped people
through good markets, bad markets, good economies, bad economies. You
know world issues, no world issues, and knows what to
(24:15):
do and knows how to help people just like you
give us a call again at nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. So I thought I should
say that because I often wondered if you're tuning into
the show for the time and you're going, yeah, guys, yeah,
they're the wise guys, know, the wise money guys.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
But well, the other the other part of that as
well is that we are our own firm, but we
are on the bank of John and Giuseppe. We have
our client's assets held with large institutional firms Schwab Charles Schwab,
interact with Brokers Vegas Partner. We recently merged with another
(24:58):
firm headquarter out of San Francis, Go called Farther, which
then allows us to have access to multiple other custodians.
Is what they're called Fidelity, bing Y, Melon Goldman, Sachs, Pershing.
So the beauty is is that you have a lot
of choice. And that's what's really important when you're dealing
with somebody managing your money, is you want to have choice.
(25:21):
You don't want to have a biases towards you know,
certain menu of products or brand names because of affiliations
or your publicly traded company or whatever the case may be.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Or your manager has goals and say I need you
to sell this many, this many dollars of this fund
because our company's goal.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
I don't care.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
We don't have that as faducal. Don't have that bias,
is right, you can't. You can't have a bias. It's
whatever is in the best interest of our clients. Right,
sorry interrupt, No, that that's that sums it up right there. Yeah, okay,
end of show. But getting back just I mean, I'm
(26:02):
at this level where I'm cautiously optimistic, just like I
was at the beginning of the year. But my spider
senses are tingling, you know, because you just see the
run ups and you start seeing people where they're not
taking profit and they just ride things up and they
write them back down.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
Or they're not or they're not you know, taking the
lesson just from a couple months ago, saw their portfolio
do great when we hit the peak in February nineteen,
and then the roller coaster ride down, right, and now
we're back up. So now here's your opportunity that if
you looked back and say, while while you were, you know,
(26:43):
experience all that pain in April when we're hitting the
lows of man, I should have done this. I should
have reallocated, I should have rebalanced. I should have had
maybe more of this or less of that in my portfolio.
Here's your opportunity. Not to say that the market's going
to just go back down to April lows, but there's
going to be and flows, but this is a good
opportunity to start to rebalance and do those things of
(27:05):
the KODA. What shoulda during that period of time.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
Yeah, so many people at retirement age go from obviously
accumulation to distribution, yet their portfolio doesn't change and they
still have more growth than they do income in their investments.
And that's a very different, you know, type and class
of investment. You know, whether it's something as simple as
going from you know, a certain percentage of stocks to
(27:30):
a higher percentage of bonds, or it's now diversifying into
some of the other income areas that have just been
unbelievable low volatility, lower correlation, lower beta to the S
and P five hundred and to stocks, yet distribution rates
from six to eight you know percent or more on
(27:51):
your on your capital invested, and that's huge. You can't
get that in a bank. You know, a bank, you
get what four percent maybe.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Yeah, us some I've seen even sub four And if
if the if some of the data inflation continues to
come in softer, unemployment starts to tick up, and the
Federal Reserve specifically drone Pal shifts from a weight and
(28:19):
see to let's go ahead and start lowering. Then you
can see that that trickle effect and you'll see those
CDs and money market rates start to come down. And
we've been talking about it for quite some time, but
the opportunities are still out there as far as a
fixed income so you know, the piece of the overall portfolio,
especially if you're in a position where you need cash
(28:41):
flow from your portfolio, put that burden on, you know,
instruments that can give you a five percent or or
just north of five percent without having to take a
lot of risks. Right going back to that conversation of
standard deviation, how do I how do I maximize my
money and provide for what it especially if it's cash
flow needs, but having to take the least amount of
(29:04):
risk because once that ship sales and if rigs start
to really come down, and you know, before you were
able to get bonds and currently at you know, five
or north of five percent paying that interest rate, and
then it goes into fours or threes or what have you.
Then now you have to go out and invest in
investment securities that you're taking more risk and you need
(29:25):
that growth.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
Yeah, you you, I mean you hear over at least
we hear over and over again from our clients and
people and perspective clients is oh, I remember when right
in the in the seventies or eighties, when interest rates
you could get sixteen percent on a CD. Well, obviously
(29:47):
we hope that we never see that situation again because
mortgages were also sixteen percent at the same time. But
if you're retired and you don't have debt, you know,
a high interest rate environment is something you need to
take advantage of because it comes and goes. And right
now there are still five percent you know, fixed and
(30:10):
guaranteed bonds out there by the issuer. And then there's
alternatives that are paying like I said, six seven eight percent,
but are lower correlated, I mean lower have lower volatility
measurements then stocks or bonds, and so that situation doesn't
(30:30):
happen often. So if you've been going, where am I
going to get you know, a six seven eight percent
you know rate? Because I have five hundred thousand dollars
and I can't gamble it, you know, all on stocks
and I need a forty thousand dollars income, which is
an eight percent return. There are absolutely investments out there
(30:52):
that have dividends and interest that can get you to
those levels, albeit not an FDIC seed. But you can't
get you can't even get half of that. Well, maybe
you can get half of it in a CD right now,
but you certainly, if you're seventy years old, it's not
going to solve your whole problem, right, It's not going
to solve your whole problem.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
Unless you have two million dollars right, right.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
But you don't want to bet on, you know, putting
your money in a growth stock or having growth mutual
funds when you need income of forty thousand on your
five hundred thousand. And it's always a mismatch. We see
it over and over and over again. And so you know,
if you're not aware of what your standard deviations are
(31:36):
how correlated your portfolio is, what sort of asset mix
you have, or you've looked at it, and you are aware, going, man,
I've been all stocks. Stocks have performed great over the
last couple of years. Now I'm worried that I might,
you know, lose some of the profit in these things.
And you're looking for ways to mitigate some of the
(31:57):
cap gains and have strategies that will also focus on
you know, what's the best way to lock in some
profit with the least amount of tax. Give us a
call at nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred.
We're not tax professionals, so always consult your tax professional.
But when it comes to investments, we know of investments
(32:20):
in strategies that were taxed then other investments or strategies,
So again, give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. Okay, you've been listening
to the wise mundy guys, John Scambrian and Joseppe Vescani
for a no obligation consultation, give us a call at
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. And
(32:42):
we were looking at a couple of our model portfolios,
and my god, I am blown away. And to give
you an idea, you know, we really look at the
investment world and what's out there, and you can break
it down simply into five categories of investments, stocks, bonds, alternatives, cash,
(33:09):
and that's real estate and real estate, thank you. And
that's really where you can lump any type of thing
that's out there into one of those five categories. And
so for clients where we have a portion of their
money in stocks and where we're picking the stocks for
(33:30):
you and we're creating uh stock models. And keep in
mind past performance is not a guarantee of future results. However,
you know, we've we've had people in this for the
last year and I'm looking at these results, Juseppe, and
(33:50):
I'm you know, blown away, because if you think about
what's happened over the last you know, twelve months, think
about think of the volatility, the wild roller coaster ride,
and I guarantee there's people out there that they saw
things go up and they're hopefully their their portfolio that
(34:10):
wasn't all stocks, or maybe it was, but then they
wrote it back down. And then when it got went down,
they got scared and sold after they lost money, and
then they waited to get back in, and now they're wondering, why, Okay,
the S and P you know is up, you know,
double digits, but my account's not up double digits. Well,
(34:31):
this is where professionals like Giuseppe and I come in,
because the portfolio only changes if your situation changes, or
the the underlying circumstances of what investments were in drastically changes,
causing us to rebalance, you know, from one position to
(34:54):
the next. But looking at what we call our S
and P ten.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
Before you going to that and going to the you know,
the results and what it's doing. I think you made
a good point.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Is I did that again? I make that recorded, but
you gotta I preface it with I think you made
you think okay.
Speaker 3 (35:17):
But the behavioral side of it is in the comment
that you made of they rolled the wave down, then
they might have sold, then they waited, then they got
back in, you know, at a later point, and then
they're looking at the market and the market's up double
digits and they're asking why am I not up double digits?
But I think one point to make on that and
(35:40):
break that down is well, what are you investing in
right and the and what indicy are you looking at
or are you watching on TV that is up double digits.
A lot of times it's either the NASDAC more times
than not, it's the S and P five hundred, which
is being you know, focused upon. And we were talking
during break the S and P five hundred in May
(36:03):
by itself, you know, which started the rally back up
from the lows of April. Sixty two percent was contributed
of the rally of the S and P five hundred,
sixty two percent of it was because of those magnificent
seven names, yeah, right, and.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Nextles exactly.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
And so if you weren't in those handful of names,
then you're not going to see the double digit return
in that period of time that you're watching, you know,
the news, or you're looking at the paper or what
have you and saying, oh my gosh, you know S
and P five hundred, you know, went up double digits
from it's low. How can my portfolios like? Well, Number one,
(36:46):
is your portfolio matching the S and P five hundred?
Are you aggressive or you're one hundred percent stocks? And
then number two, do you have a majority of the
percentage you're waiting of your portfolio in those handful of names,
because that's what's been contributing, and it's actually carried through
June as well. I mean, we've seen all time highs
and video. I took a snapshot and I put it
(37:07):
on our x dot com site and you can search us.
It's just search Wise Money guys, the Wise Money guys
on X. But I took a snapshot earlier in the week.
I think it was Wednesday that I took a snapshot
of the S and P five hundred heat map. And
so all that shows what a heat map is is
(37:28):
it shows the five hundred constituents that make up the
S and P five hundred, all the stocks in little squares. Now,
the bigger the square just pertains to the bigger waiting.
Speaker 2 (37:40):
Or return it or more weighting.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
The more waiting it has five hundred effect. And if
you look at all of those five hundred little boxes right,
some are larger, like in Video is a very large box.
Google is a larger box, Meta is a larger box,
Apples a larger box. But then you have like Johnson
and Johnson and CrowdStrike and some of these other names
right there are smaller boxes because they don't have as
(38:04):
much waiting in that indicy, but there was a lot
more red on that heat than green. But what was
important is that ones that were green was in video,
was appri was meta, right, and so the market at
that day was slightly positive. It was slightly in the green,
(38:26):
but only because of those handful of names that were
really one day and video was up four percent, right,
so it really it really carried. But that's a that's
a you know, that's a good point that you brought up,
and I just wanted to divest a little bit further
into that because people easily match up and say, well
(38:47):
S and P's up this, and it's down that, and
so on and so forth, right, And we talked about
S and P five hundred and then the equal weight
and how there's a big contrast between the two just
because of the waitings.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
But go ahead, go ahead, and keep in mind that,
you know, we've actually had people in this model since
April of of twenty four. We've back tested it to
April of twenty two.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
I think you're thinking of the core.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
That's the core.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
This goes back to twenty twenty two. Actually this one, Okay,
people in it, This is the more this is, the
more aggressive portfolio.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
So let's say you're just trying to beat you're you're
a you know, moderate investor, where you're going to have
a combination of stocks, bonds, alternatives, real estate, and cash investments.
And this is what would fall under the stock portion.
It might be ten percent of your portfolio, might be twenty,
(39:46):
might be thirty, might be fifty percent of your portfolio. Now,
we try to stay away from an allocation of more
than fifty percent in any one area unless you have
a long work horizon. Still to you're young, you have
high income, you can afford the ups and downs. But
if you're in your sixties, seventies, eighties, I think we
(40:09):
have some clients in their nineties actually where you don't
have time to replace you know, stock market downturns. That
determines what percentage of stocks and your comfort for risk
obviously that should be in your portfolio or make up
your overall allocation. But getting to this and this is
(40:31):
rebalanced you know, monthly, and sometimes the positions stay the
same and sometimes it pulls in, you know, a different position.
Because it's only ten to ten what we would call
the best ten positions of the S and P five hundred.
So it's not static, it's actively rebalanced. And how is
(40:54):
that done? You say, Well, year to date it's up
eleven point seven six percent one year, So this is
a rolling year I'm assuming not calendar twenty four point
nine one percent, three year going back to its inception
(41:14):
forty three point eight four percent cumulative. Now that is
just blows me away. Again, think of think of from
twenty two until now, there's literally been thirty to fifty
percent up and down swings in various stocks of the
(41:37):
S and P of the NASDAC. And so if you're
managing your money yourself, or you're working with an advisor
that has you over invested in one category or doesn't
actively rebalance your portfolio and always says these words, Oh,
don't worry, just stay the course, no matter what happens,
(41:58):
Please give us a call. Nine six seven thirty five
hundred Again nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred.
This was just to give you a little snippet of
the types of things that you can expect as part
of your portfolio that if your plan and your goals
(42:19):
and objectives, your tolerance for risk, your time horizon makes
sense for a portion of this. This is the type
of thing you could expect from us when hired by
you to help you reach your goals and objectives. If
you like what we talked about on this show, or
any show, quite frankly, and again, you're interested in an
(42:41):
absolutely no obligation whatsoever consultation, give us a call at
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Now
I realize, so this is Saturday. Next Friday is the fourth,
so our next show will be the fifth. So we
got to it's happy fourth of July.
Speaker 3 (43:01):
Have a great week and happy fourth of July, and
we'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (43:05):
Bye all, BIM
The Wise Money Guys Radio Show is brought to you
by One Source of Wealth Management SEC Licensed three one
nine zero seven eight. For disclosures and more information, visit
our website One Source WM dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to the Wise Money Guys radio Show. I'm your
co host, John Scambrand. I'm here with my partner just
up you Wisconsin. We are certified portfolio managers that specialize
in helping people who are retired are about to retire
manage their money. If you like our show, have comments
or questions, or more importantly, want to meet for a
no obligation consultation, give us a call at nine one
(00:37):
six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Again that numbers
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. For
full disclosures, go to our website wisemoneyguys dot com. Scroll
to the bottom of the page and you'll see all
the required regulatory disclosures and all as Always, keep in
mind that past performances and guarantee of future results, and
(01:00):
there is no such strategy or product or service that
can absolutely guarantee you from never losing money. In fact,
if somebody promises you you can never lose money on
a particular investment run and then give us a call
at nine one six six seven thirty five hundred. So
what are we talking about, EPPI. So you've got about
(01:23):
two pages of notes there, so.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
You flip to the backside, it's three.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
It's three double printed. Oh yeah, okay, we do. We
got three pages of notes here. Obviously a lot going on.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Yeah, tech tech led rally again, so we're kind of
back in this narrow breadth where it's really about these
big tech names that are carrying the market from where
we left off at the lows in April. The other
is the revisions to the GDP contraction that we had
last quarter, So we'll talk a little bit about that
(01:57):
that actually dipped below.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Really targeting one point four? What was the FED targeting?
I forget, No, it's just a revision from the last reading.
So it was a contraction of point three. Oh got
now it's a revision. Now it's a revision. The revision
came in. It's actually a contraction of point five. Yeah,
do you have in your list? I mean, we also
saw like retail sales lower than expected. But now here
we are and we're seeing once again earnings already start
(02:23):
off with some tech names and things being like Micron,
you know, blew away their earnings. Yet the price as
of this morning was was down interestingly, so you know,
don't know what's going on there. But then there's been
others that have, you know, really set the stage for
another big and earnings period with surprises, meets and beats
(02:49):
to the to the upside. So I mean, even though
we're starting to believe the S and P five hundred,
especially the weighted S and P five hundred is now
over at SKIS again, so I would caution people here
to start looking at maybe trimming, especially if you've got
you know, large concentrations in the mag seven like in
(03:13):
video or those and videos at an old time record, yeah,
you know, it's previous old time record I think was
one forty nine and change, and I saw, you know,
during the week it hit one fifty five and climbing.
So don't know where exactly closed.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
But even though the China market's kind of off off
off right, China's threatened that they're not going to be
purchasing as much, you know, And I was reading and
some of what I have in my notes too, outside
of just the normal most recent current financial events and
what's been going on in the market and economy is
(03:50):
just what's been going on in the twenty twenties, right,
March of twenty twenty, and what took place in twenty
twenty and just the volatility we have got and then
entered deviation and then all of oh yeah, and then
all of the events that have taken place since then, right,
and just the more market psychology that everyone's kind of
(04:14):
adapted to, which is essentially they put it, it's react, crash, recover.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Forget, right, say that three times fast? What was that? Stop,
drop and roll pretty much.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
And then forget and then forget there was ever a
fire and what caused a fire and the risks of
having a fire and what to do to prevent a fire,
and so people get amnesia pretty quickly after.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Yeah, isn't it funny that you know people forget have
already forgotten twenty two right, because even though we had
both stocks and bonds down double digits, you know, they
start getting underdiversified and over concentrated. And that's what we're
starting to see when we get you know, when we're
sitting down for the first time with new potential clients,
(05:05):
we're starting to see that. You know, they have way
too much inequities, or they think they're diversified amongst different
sectors and different classes of investments, and they're not at all,
And in fact, many times they have no idea exactly
you know what their pie chart looks like. Right, if
(05:26):
you're looking at the pie chart, if your pie charts.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
And Magnificent seven, you've been doing pretty good.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Oh you've been crushing it. But now you know, we
just like we saw in February February, in March, you know,
the mag seven came down thirty to fifty percent on
you know which particular position you were in. Mean, you
look at Tesla. Tesla got up there and got excited
about the robo you know, romo taxi launch, and now
(05:52):
it's trimmed down, you know, quite a bit. But but
again it's all about and I'm glad you mentioned volatility
because I don't think people truly know what their standard
deviation is or what their roller coaster ride score is, right,
and how much risk they really have inside their portfolios.
(06:13):
And that's one of the main things that we look
at because when we're going to truly diversify somebody based
on whatever their goals and objectives are. We're looking at
what the standard deviation is of each category or each
specific investment that we're putting you in. And obviously, the
better the return you can get with the low the
(06:35):
lower standard deviation compared to the S and P five hundred,
you know, the better off you might be, especially once
things like the stock market is out over at skis now.
I think there's still value out there, sure, obviously, sure,
and and well.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
I think the other part too is, you know, institutions
have been a lot more hedge funds and institute have
been a lot more conservative. Yeah, they were, they were
raising cash, raising cash short in the market, and I
think they're playing catch up, you know, for the second
quarter to you know, shore up some performance numbers and
(07:15):
at least have some decent numbers that they can go
back on, get their bonuses, so on and so forth.
We'll see if it continues to stick once Q two,
you know, is done and we go into the new quarter.
I think there's I mean, it's funny because when April
and we hit the lows right and market was pulling back,
(07:38):
SMP was down twenty two Nasdaq was down twenty seven
percent at that period of time from from peak to trough,
we saw a lot of recession, and you know that
all these things that are going to be catalysts to
drive the market down further or cause a recession. And
then we had a GDP print that was actually contracting,
(08:01):
it was negative, which we haven't had a little while.
Now everything's being ignored and continuing to just lift up,
and now estimates are coming coming back higher. Goldman Sachs
is raising, City Bank is raising Bank of America is
raising S and P five hundred years.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Isn't that funny? I mean, wow, yeah, wow. You're so
good that you can after things go up, after they go.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
Down, after they and this is after they've adjusted down.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
That's what I'm saying. But people pay people for that information.
People pay these big investment banks and banks, you know,
millions and billions of dollars for after the fact hindsight information.
I mean, we've been talking on the show for years,
me for years, and you for you know, over a
(08:52):
year now on what we expect and what we think
you should do based on what's happening now and what
we predict it is going to happen. That's the only
thing you should be paying people, you know, for when
it comes to managing your money, in my opinion, because
anybody can go, oh yeah, see, you know you shouldn't
(09:13):
have been in the S and P.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Well, there's going to be recession. We're going to lower
our SMP year end target. And then things start not
things start to turn around. Max seven wakes up again.
It's dragging the market up, and video is hitting all
time new highs and like, oh yeah, we said S
and P five hundred is going to finish a year
at fifty eight hundred. Just kidding, it's going to finish
a year at sixty five hundred. But if things turn around,
(09:38):
if you know, the Middle East, you know, starts to
you know, they break this truce that they're on and
war and oil starts to go up, and let's say
PC and inflation starts to heat it. And then also
oh no, no.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Yeah, we're revising, We're going back to it. Yeah. Well,
and quite frankly speaking of the war in the Middle East,
I mean, defensive stocks pulled back a little bit with
the true so now you know there's probably some value there.
Oils pulled back at least the price per barrel. You know,
I don't have Chevron or Exon or any of those,
or Fang or or any of them in front of
(10:11):
me at the moment. But you know, I suspect that
there's some value there, maybe MPC, Marathon Petroleum Corp. You know,
some of those areas. And if you look at the
gas you know they can the gas companies, they're still wild,
wildly profitable even when oil is in the sixties or seventies.
And then if it gets down into the fifties, you know,
(10:34):
you'll I think you'll see the Chevrons and the Exons,
you know, pop. So you know, keep that in mind.
I mean, that's the point I was trying to make though,
based on what's happening is how we zig and zag
for our clients. If your person isn't zigging or zagging
based on the data, based on you know, what's what's happening,
(10:58):
based on what's projected to happen, and if you wait
till something has already happened, then it's too late. I mean,
you need to be working with proactive, proactive being the
key word. Proactive active money managers who are constantly based
on your goals and objectives, but based on what's happening
(11:19):
in the world being proactive with your portfolio. Otherwise, again,
what are you paying for? And it boggles the mind.
And one of the things that we were talking about
is obviously, you know, some of the things that are
posing potential now headwinds to the market. Now circle back,
(11:43):
at the beginning of the year, we said we thought
there was more tailwinds than headwinds, and once again we
were right through throughout the year.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
But at the beginning of the year we were saying
that it's going to be a bumpy ride. We all
because of major policy shift and we knew tariffs are coming.
Nobody knew how large or how impactful they were going
to be. So and it was a bumpy ride, for sure.
It was bumpety ride.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
But still we're close to all time not not you know,
the highs of the all time highs. Once again, the
S and P is very close, the Nasdaq's very close,
you know, Dows a thousand points.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Away or so.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
But when you're looking at forty three thousand or the
forty four thousand, you know, percentage wise, that's only about
a two percent pop for the Dow to be at
an all time high. But again, it really comes down
to you know how you play this market and what
potential you know, pitfalls are out there. Certainly the FED
(12:42):
not cutting in July when now you have the bets
for the FED cutting FED funds in July going up.
So if he didn't, that would be a disappointment, right
then don't you also have and I'm looking over your
shoulder at your pages, but isn't there also some potential
deadlines for TARA coming which might you know?
Speaker 3 (13:02):
So the valuations are they going to be hard deadlines?
Are they going to be further delayed? You know? That's
those are the things that we can't predict, right, You
can't forecast. But what we do know is Q one
contracted revised numbers came in and a little bit bigger
from point three too point five. The contributing factors to
(13:25):
that were TERRORF related headwinds, lower consumer spending, which is
the biggest part of GDP, and higher import volumes, which
I think that is probably a one off, just because
companies and businesses trying to get ahead, you know, building
up inventory because they didn't know what what's going to
(13:46):
what this teriff you know scenario is going to amount
to and if they need to stock you know, increase
or stockpile or not. So we'll see how that impacts.
The other is unemployment. I mean, Microsoft we talked about
last week has has started to trickle a little bit, yea,
(14:07):
and you know weekly number weekly jobs claims fell, but
there is an expectation of unemployment rising. Now if that
takes place, I mean, the the you know, conversation or
the speech from Jerome Powell was a wait and see,
you know, continuing to be a wait and see scenario.
(14:27):
And one of his arguments is because unemployment, you know,
I mean, we're still resilient. Unemployment is still low, so
we're on full employment. So if that starts trickling up,
then the few FED presidents that were on board of yeah,
we can probably look at starting to cut rates next
month right in July. Maybe that you know, leans Powell
(14:48):
a little bit further to those three Fed pet presidents
to maybe start cutting rates if unemployment starts to tick up.
So we'll gain to see. But I think the the
things that are kind of on a thin line or
thin ice right now that could cause more volatility like
we've had is the Middle East tensions arising again, the
(15:11):
truth being broken right which how many decades have they
been fighting, I.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Mean, not decades, centuries. Yeah, you know, the war over
religion has been happening for centuries forever, forever, going back
to the Egyptians and the Hebrews and you know, and
then the Crusades and hundreds of years.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
Right, So if that truth is broken, obviously that's going
to cause balatility in the markets. The tariff deadlines, I
think are are bigger, you know, catalysts that if the
delays are hard lines and revert back and some of
the you know, agreements or reverted back to the higher
elevated tariffs.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
I don't see. I don't see the market. I think
investors are kind of over it though. Even if I
think even if tru Up you know, turns around and says,
well we didn't we haven't finalized this deal or that deal,
and you know, they're popping back up, I.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
Don't think that they're over it. I think the market,
my opinion of the market right now.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
Is and when we say that we're talking about the
stock market.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
It's like it's it is it's reaching for that next
serotonin high, that next sugar high. Really, no, that is
more important than than to than to like look within
and say.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Yeah, fundamentals are are basically out the window. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
So it's like here, here's another piece of candy, like okay,
yeah right, and then the market just shoots up and
it's not realizing like, hey, I've ate too much candy here,
I'm getting too much of a sugar high.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Are you talking about yourself right now?
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Well? I did have you, I did have I did
have some leftover timasu from from my family's restaurant. Man,
just I had like a piece every ding I was.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
I was trying to prevent myself from going to the table.
Where was that Everybody's getting the big pieces over there,
and I'm going all my mouth watered. Yeah, when I
was looking at the terror of the zoo.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Yeah, then when you bring all those leftovers home, you're like, oh,
I can't let it go to waste.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Right, you feel so bad letting it go to waste exactly.
Speaker 3 (17:13):
But that's that's how I feel of the market. It's
it's it's very optimistic and it looked at reaches and
grabs for anything that's positive out there, and then it
just holds onto it and then we and then we rally, right,
But then it's very reactionary that if there's some certain
bad news like we saw when you know it was
(17:34):
US and China and they continue to have a retaliatory
environment where they just raised raised the level of tariffs, right,
we saw go the other direction. So I think it
could be very reactionary. Things happen so fast. I mean
I was reading some data in twenty twenty, so in March,
which is a very different circumstance because the whole world
was shut down. But in March in twenty twenty had
(17:56):
twenty two trading days. Okay, only one of those days
was plus or minus one percent. As far as a
move right, there was sixteen days. It was eight days
that was up three percent, and eight days of those
twenty two days that were down three percent. I mean,
there's a wild, wild right. And if you look at
(18:16):
just what the twenty twenties have provided so far as
far as catalyst of markets going down or black swan
events or what have you. We've had the COVID nineteen pandemic. Obviously,
we've had the meme stock craze, which was peloton. We
thought it was going to go through themc game game stop.
(18:37):
You know, businesses that have like zero fundamentals, but they
were just going through, just going to the moon, right
from all these retail traders. We had nine percent inflation,
the highest inflation that we've sustained in like forty years.
Federate hikes from zero to five percent, and not only
just raising rates but raising the fastest clip that we've seen.
(19:00):
Silicon Valley bank panic. Oh right, we had that run
on many bank crash, right. We had help out.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
By taxpayers and and and the Fed of course.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Well, and I think, and you bring up a good point.
I think that is what the market, in the investment
community is now getting used to. It's we've seen these
things happen, but then we see the government come in, daddy,
Daddy come in, bust out his wallet and you know,
or fix things, right, So I think that is really
(19:35):
what you know. So that's what I mean by you know, oh,
we have this tariff delay for ninety days. Okay, let
me grab that piece of candy, and market's rally. We
had the en carry trade, right, we had the deep
seek and then the end carry trade, which caused a
lot of alativity for these big tech names that have
been sharing the market recently. Yep, chip makers, liberation Day,
(19:57):
which was the start of the tear regime, right and
all the volatility that that caused. And then more recently
we had the Middle East and then the US bombing
Iran and Israel and Iran going back and forth and
now rather of truth. So hopefully that stays pat but
it could be very quick that some of these things resurface.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Well you saw just speaking not to get too much sidetracked,
but you know the I guess it's the parliament. I
don't know what you call it when you have you know,
the UK. No, the political structure of Iran, but they
were chanting death to the US, their their political structure's
death to the US and death to Israel. I mean
(20:42):
obviously they haven't learned their lesson. I mean their their
air powers history, their missile defense history, Their missile you know,
capability is decimated. Obviously them getting a nuclear bomb isn't
can happen. And all of this matters because it puts
(21:04):
pressure and uncertainty on investment, and no matter what is happening,
good or bad, you don't have to worry about these
things as much if you're not you know, over betting
on one category of investment and one or two particular positions.
(21:24):
And when you're retired, especially in your sixties, seventies or eighties,
why you would want that stress level to not have
a high dividend, high income producing portfolio that's lower volatility
than the typical S and P five hundred position is
(21:45):
beyond me. In fact, if you saw your portfolio swing
quite a bit from the start of the year or
really the end of last year through you know, first
first first quarter, now it's come back a little bit.
If you don't want to suffer that again, absolutely come
(22:05):
in and see us by calling nine one six ninety
six seven thirty five hundred. I guarantee it will be
a good use of your time. Even if you don't
decide to hire us as as your money management financial
planning firm, you will get something out of it that
helps you. I can guarantee that. So keep listening to
(22:26):
the wise money guys, John Scambray to Septi Viscontin and
I forgot to give our phone number off nine one
six ninety six seven thirty five hundred. Give us call
it nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred.
Why you should do that. By the way, we're not
just a couple of guys who decided to do a
radio show and then start helping people with their goals
(22:47):
and objectives when it came to their investments, or their finances,
or the retirement or their legacy. No decade into doing
this for a combined decades, you know, me over thirty years,
Giuseppe working on twenty years. We're also students of this
industry long before we did this radio show. We're both
(23:10):
certified portfolio managers that that advanced credentially came from sad
to say this part because of just the nonsense going on,
but Columbia University, which is still a very impressive applied
mathematics university, and Giuseppe also holds a master's in economics
(23:32):
and finance, and both of us, of course have undergraduate degrees,
but more importantly, we're battle tested. We've been helping people
with their investments, as I said, for decades, and then
we decided to partner and bring you know, what we
do and information and just education and council to you know,
(23:54):
to the public through a radio show long after we
ever got in this industry. So if the type of
person you're looking for is one that has helped people
through good markets, bad markets, good economies, bad economies. You
know world issues, no world issues, and knows what to
(24:15):
do and knows how to help people just like you
give us a call again at nine one six nine
six seven thirty five hundred. So I thought I should
say that because I often wondered if you're tuning into
the show for the time and you're going, yeah, guys, yeah,
they're the wise guys, know, the wise money guys.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
But well, the other the other part of that as
well is that we are our own firm, but we
are on the bank of John and Giuseppe. We have
our client's assets held with large institutional firms Schwab Charles Schwab,
interact with Brokers Vegas Partner. We recently merged with another
(24:58):
firm headquarter out of San Francis, Go called Farther, which
then allows us to have access to multiple other custodians.
Is what they're called Fidelity, bing Y, Melon Goldman, Sachs, Pershing.
So the beauty is is that you have a lot
of choice. And that's what's really important when you're dealing
with somebody managing your money, is you want to have choice.
(25:21):
You don't want to have a biases towards you know,
certain menu of products or brand names because of affiliations
or your publicly traded company or whatever the case may be.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Or your manager has goals and say I need you
to sell this many, this many dollars of this fund
because our company's goal.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
I don't care.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
We don't have that as faducal. Don't have that bias,
is right, you can't. You can't have a bias. It's
whatever is in the best interest of our clients. Right,
sorry interrupt, No, that that's that sums it up right there. Yeah, okay,
end of show. But getting back just I mean, I'm
(26:02):
at this level where I'm cautiously optimistic, just like I
was at the beginning of the year. But my spider
senses are tingling, you know, because you just see the
run ups and you start seeing people where they're not
taking profit and they just ride things up and they
write them back down.
Speaker 3 (26:21):
Or they're not or they're not you know, taking the
lesson just from a couple months ago, saw their portfolio
do great when we hit the peak in February nineteen,
and then the roller coaster ride down, right, and now
we're back up. So now here's your opportunity that if
you looked back and say, while while you were, you know,
(26:43):
experience all that pain in April when we're hitting the
lows of man, I should have done this. I should
have reallocated, I should have rebalanced. I should have had
maybe more of this or less of that in my portfolio.
Here's your opportunity. Not to say that the market's going
to just go back down to April lows, but there's
going to be and flows, but this is a good
opportunity to start to rebalance and do those things of
(27:05):
the KODA. What shoulda during that period of time.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
Yeah, so many people at retirement age go from obviously
accumulation to distribution, yet their portfolio doesn't change and they
still have more growth than they do income in their investments.
And that's a very different, you know, type and class
of investment. You know, whether it's something as simple as
going from you know, a certain percentage of stocks to
(27:30):
a higher percentage of bonds, or it's now diversifying into
some of the other income areas that have just been
unbelievable low volatility, lower correlation, lower beta to the S
and P five hundred and to stocks, yet distribution rates
from six to eight you know percent or more on
(27:51):
your on your capital invested, and that's huge. You can't
get that in a bank. You know, a bank, you
get what four percent maybe.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Yeah, us some I've seen even sub four And if
if the if some of the data inflation continues to
come in softer, unemployment starts to tick up, and the
Federal Reserve specifically drone Pal shifts from a weight and
(28:19):
see to let's go ahead and start lowering. Then you
can see that that trickle effect and you'll see those
CDs and money market rates start to come down. And
we've been talking about it for quite some time, but
the opportunities are still out there as far as a
fixed income so you know, the piece of the overall portfolio,
especially if you're in a position where you need cash
(28:41):
flow from your portfolio, put that burden on, you know,
instruments that can give you a five percent or or
just north of five percent without having to take a
lot of risks. Right going back to that conversation of
standard deviation, how do I how do I maximize my
money and provide for what it especially if it's cash
flow needs, but having to take the least amount of
(29:04):
risk because once that ship sales and if rigs start
to really come down, and you know, before you were
able to get bonds and currently at you know, five
or north of five percent paying that interest rate, and
then it goes into fours or threes or what have you.
Then now you have to go out and invest in
investment securities that you're taking more risk and you need
(29:25):
that growth.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
Yeah, you you, I mean you hear over at least
we hear over and over again from our clients and
people and perspective clients is oh, I remember when right
in the in the seventies or eighties, when interest rates
you could get sixteen percent on a CD. Well, obviously
(29:47):
we hope that we never see that situation again because
mortgages were also sixteen percent at the same time. But
if you're retired and you don't have debt, you know,
a high interest rate environment is something you need to
take advantage of because it comes and goes. And right
now there are still five percent you know, fixed and
(30:10):
guaranteed bonds out there by the issuer. And then there's
alternatives that are paying like I said, six seven eight percent,
but are lower correlated, I mean lower have lower volatility
measurements then stocks or bonds, and so that situation doesn't
(30:30):
happen often. So if you've been going, where am I
going to get you know, a six seven eight percent
you know rate? Because I have five hundred thousand dollars
and I can't gamble it, you know, all on stocks
and I need a forty thousand dollars income, which is
an eight percent return. There are absolutely investments out there
(30:52):
that have dividends and interest that can get you to
those levels, albeit not an FDIC seed. But you can't
get you can't even get half of that. Well, maybe
you can get half of it in a CD right now,
but you certainly, if you're seventy years old, it's not
going to solve your whole problem, right, It's not going
to solve your whole problem.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
Unless you have two million dollars right, right.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
But you don't want to bet on, you know, putting
your money in a growth stock or having growth mutual
funds when you need income of forty thousand on your
five hundred thousand. And it's always a mismatch. We see
it over and over and over again. And so you know,
if you're not aware of what your standard deviations are
(31:36):
how correlated your portfolio is, what sort of asset mix
you have, or you've looked at it, and you are aware, going, man,
I've been all stocks. Stocks have performed great over the
last couple of years. Now I'm worried that I might,
you know, lose some of the profit in these things.
And you're looking for ways to mitigate some of the
(31:57):
cap gains and have strategies that will also focus on
you know, what's the best way to lock in some
profit with the least amount of tax. Give us a
call at nine one six ninety six seven thirty five hundred.
We're not tax professionals, so always consult your tax professional.
But when it comes to investments, we know of investments
(32:20):
in strategies that were taxed then other investments or strategies,
So again, give us a call at nine one six
nine six seven thirty five hundred. Okay, you've been listening
to the wise mundy guys, John Scambrian and Joseppe Vescani
for a no obligation consultation, give us a call at
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. And
(32:42):
we were looking at a couple of our model portfolios,
and my god, I am blown away. And to give
you an idea, you know, we really look at the
investment world and what's out there, and you can break
it down simply into five categories of investments, stocks, bonds, alternatives, cash,
(33:09):
and that's real estate and real estate, thank you. And
that's really where you can lump any type of thing
that's out there into one of those five categories. And
so for clients where we have a portion of their
money in stocks and where we're picking the stocks for
(33:30):
you and we're creating uh stock models. And keep in
mind past performance is not a guarantee of future results. However,
you know, we've we've had people in this for the
last year and I'm looking at these results, Juseppe, and
(33:50):
I'm you know, blown away, because if you think about
what's happened over the last you know, twelve months, think
about think of the volatility, the wild roller coaster ride,
and I guarantee there's people out there that they saw
things go up and they're hopefully their their portfolio that
(34:10):
wasn't all stocks, or maybe it was, but then they
wrote it back down. And then when it got went down,
they got scared and sold after they lost money, and
then they waited to get back in, and now they're wondering, why, Okay,
the S and P you know is up, you know,
double digits, but my account's not up double digits. Well,
(34:31):
this is where professionals like Giuseppe and I come in,
because the portfolio only changes if your situation changes, or
the the underlying circumstances of what investments were in drastically changes,
causing us to rebalance, you know, from one position to
(34:54):
the next. But looking at what we call our S
and P ten.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
Before you going to that and going to the you know,
the results and what it's doing. I think you made
a good point.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
Is I did that again? I make that recorded, but
you gotta I preface it with I think you made
you think okay.
Speaker 3 (35:17):
But the behavioral side of it is in the comment
that you made of they rolled the wave down, then
they might have sold, then they waited, then they got
back in, you know, at a later point, and then
they're looking at the market and the market's up double
digits and they're asking why am I not up double digits?
But I think one point to make on that and
(35:40):
break that down is well, what are you investing in
right and the and what indicy are you looking at
or are you watching on TV that is up double digits.
A lot of times it's either the NASDAC more times
than not, it's the S and P five hundred, which
is being you know, focused upon. And we were talking
during break the S and P five hundred in May
(36:03):
by itself, you know, which started the rally back up
from the lows of April. Sixty two percent was contributed
of the rally of the S and P five hundred,
sixty two percent of it was because of those magnificent
seven names, yeah, right, and.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Nextles exactly.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
And so if you weren't in those handful of names,
then you're not going to see the double digit return
in that period of time that you're watching, you know,
the news, or you're looking at the paper or what
have you and saying, oh my gosh, you know S
and P five hundred, you know, went up double digits
from it's low. How can my portfolios like? Well, Number one,
(36:46):
is your portfolio matching the S and P five hundred?
Are you aggressive or you're one hundred percent stocks? And
then number two, do you have a majority of the
percentage you're waiting of your portfolio in those handful of names,
because that's what's been contributing, and it's actually carried through
June as well. I mean, we've seen all time highs
and video. I took a snapshot and I put it
(37:07):
on our x dot com site and you can search us.
It's just search Wise Money guys, the Wise Money guys
on X. But I took a snapshot earlier in the week.
I think it was Wednesday that I took a snapshot
of the S and P five hundred heat map. And
so all that shows what a heat map is is
(37:28):
it shows the five hundred constituents that make up the
S and P five hundred, all the stocks in little squares. Now,
the bigger the square just pertains to the bigger waiting.
Speaker 2 (37:40):
Or return it or more weighting.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
The more waiting it has five hundred effect. And if
you look at all of those five hundred little boxes right,
some are larger, like in Video is a very large box.
Google is a larger box, Meta is a larger box,
Apples a larger box. But then you have like Johnson
and Johnson and CrowdStrike and some of these other names
right there are smaller boxes because they don't have as
(38:04):
much waiting in that indicy, but there was a lot
more red on that heat than green. But what was
important is that ones that were green was in video,
was appri was meta, right, and so the market at
that day was slightly positive. It was slightly in the green,
(38:26):
but only because of those handful of names that were
really one day and video was up four percent, right,
so it really it really carried. But that's a that's
a you know, that's a good point that you brought up,
and I just wanted to divest a little bit further
into that because people easily match up and say, well
(38:47):
S and P's up this, and it's down that, and
so on and so forth, right, And we talked about
S and P five hundred and then the equal weight
and how there's a big contrast between the two just
because of the waitings.
Speaker 2 (38:58):
But go ahead, go ahead, and keep in mind that,
you know, we've actually had people in this model since
April of of twenty four. We've back tested it to
April of twenty two.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
I think you're thinking of the core.
Speaker 2 (39:17):
That's the core.
Speaker 3 (39:17):
This goes back to twenty twenty two. Actually this one, Okay,
people in it, This is the more this is, the
more aggressive portfolio.
Speaker 2 (39:25):
So let's say you're just trying to beat you're you're
a you know, moderate investor, where you're going to have
a combination of stocks, bonds, alternatives, real estate, and cash investments.
And this is what would fall under the stock portion.
It might be ten percent of your portfolio, might be twenty,
(39:46):
might be thirty, might be fifty percent of your portfolio. Now,
we try to stay away from an allocation of more
than fifty percent in any one area unless you have
a long work horizon. Still to you're young, you have
high income, you can afford the ups and downs. But
if you're in your sixties, seventies, eighties, I think we
(40:09):
have some clients in their nineties actually where you don't
have time to replace you know, stock market downturns. That
determines what percentage of stocks and your comfort for risk
obviously that should be in your portfolio or make up
your overall allocation. But getting to this and this is
(40:31):
rebalanced you know, monthly, and sometimes the positions stay the
same and sometimes it pulls in, you know, a different position.
Because it's only ten to ten what we would call
the best ten positions of the S and P five hundred.
So it's not static, it's actively rebalanced. And how is
(40:54):
that done? You say, Well, year to date it's up
eleven point seven six percent one year, So this is
a rolling year I'm assuming not calendar twenty four point
nine one percent, three year going back to its inception
(41:14):
forty three point eight four percent cumulative. Now that is
just blows me away. Again, think of think of from
twenty two until now, there's literally been thirty to fifty
percent up and down swings in various stocks of the
(41:37):
S and P of the NASDAC. And so if you're
managing your money yourself, or you're working with an advisor
that has you over invested in one category or doesn't
actively rebalance your portfolio and always says these words, Oh,
don't worry, just stay the course, no matter what happens,
(41:58):
Please give us a call. Nine six seven thirty five
hundred Again nine six ninety six seven thirty five hundred.
This was just to give you a little snippet of
the types of things that you can expect as part
of your portfolio that if your plan and your goals
(42:19):
and objectives, your tolerance for risk, your time horizon makes
sense for a portion of this. This is the type
of thing you could expect from us when hired by
you to help you reach your goals and objectives. If
you like what we talked about on this show, or
any show, quite frankly, and again, you're interested in an
(42:41):
absolutely no obligation whatsoever consultation, give us a call at
nine one six nine six seven thirty five hundred. Now
I realize, so this is Saturday. Next Friday is the fourth,
so our next show will be the fifth. So we
got to it's happy fourth of July.
Speaker 3 (43:01):
Have a great week and happy fourth of July, and
we'll talk to you next week.
Speaker 2 (43:05):
Bye all, BIM
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